Track Trends

NYRA handicapper, Andy Serling, provides daily analysis of track trends and conditions at Beautiful Belmont Park in an attempt to share his thoughts and insights into any possible track biases. This can be a helpful resource for handicappers as track conditions can change from one day to the next.

Saratoga Track Trends Aqueduct Track Trends

Thursday, October 21

10 / 21 Track Trends

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 9 to 12 MPH NNE

There is an argument that the rail was an advantage on the Main Track but it’s far from clear. Worth following. The rails were down to zero on the Inner Turf but the course played fairly, as did the Widener ( rails at 9 feet ).

Sunday, October 17

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 12 MPH SE

All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly.

Saturday, October 16

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 16 to 18 MPH North

All courses appeared to play fairly.

Friday, October 15

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 8 MPH NE to NNW

The Main Track played fairly, as did the Widener course. Both races on the Inner Turf were dominated by horses that spent at least a significant portion of the race inside but it could have been situational. Possibly worth following.

Thursday, October 14

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 6 MPH SE

All surfaces and courses, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly.

Sunday, October 10

Good / Firm

Showery

Wind 16 MPH SW

The Main Track was listed as good but it's debatable how much moisture there was in it. Regardless, it played fairly. The Widener Turf played fairly as well, while there is an argument being inside on the Inner Turf course was an advantage. Worth following.

Saturday, October 9

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 11 to 13 MPH WSW

All courses, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly.

Friday, October 8

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 4 to 6 MPH SW to NW

While the Main Track races were dominated by horses moving outside, it may well have been situational, and the track was likely fair until proven otherwise. The Turf courses appeared to play fairly.

Thursday, October 7

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 3 to 7 MPH NW to NE

The Main Track played fairly. The rail was out 27 feet on the Inner Turf and both races were won wire to wire on the inside but there's no concrete reason to believe there was any bias. The rail was still out 18 feet on the Widener and it appeared to play fairly.

Sunday, October 3

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 8 MPH NE

All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly.

Saturday, October 2

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 10 to 6 MPH NE

While closers, usually off the inside, seemed to dominate the dirt races, it was likely situational and the track was most likely fair. The turf courses played fairly.

Friday, October 1

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 7 MPH ESE

All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly

Thursday, September 30

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 7 MPH SSE

All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly. The rails were moved out 18 feet on both turf courses.

Sunday, September 26

Fast / Good

Clear

Wind 13 to 10 MPH SE

The rail was good on the Main Track, and could have been a slight advantage, but given how the 6th race was run, it's unlikely it was an inside track and likely was at least close to fair. The Turf courses seemed to play fairly, though many riders tried to stay a bit off the rail on both courses, possibly because of how they may have played on Saturday ( 9/25 ). Worth following.

Saturday, September 25

Fast / Good

Clear

Wind 2 MPH NNW

The Main Track played fairly. There is an argument that the inside on both turf courses, which took a lot of rain less than two days ago, was not a good place to be. Worth following going forward.

Friday, September 24

Muddy ( sealed ) 1-5, Muddy ( Harrowed ) 6-8, Good 9 / Off

Clear

Wind 7 MPH NE to SE

A lot of the best running seemed to be done well off the rail, but horses ran fine inside ( see the 2nd race among others ). The track played fairly overall.

Thursday, September 23

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 17 MPH NW

The three races on the Main Track played fairly. Appeared to be a much different track than last week. The rails were out for the first time, at nine feet, for the first time at the meet. The Widener played fairly. The inside was still good on the Inner but not the advantage it was during the first week.

Sunday, September 19

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 8 to 5 MPH SSW

The rail on the Main Track was extremely beneficial, probably as strong as any day during the week, if not stronger. The Widener Turf played fairly. The three races on the Inner Turf played relatively fairly. Hard to determine if the inside was still a real advantage.

Saturday, September 18

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 6 MPH SE

The rail continues to be a real advantage on the Main Track. Speed may not have been the edge it was on the prior day while still good overall. The rail on Inner Turf is very strong and saving ground was a big advantage. The Widener appeared to play fairly.

Friday, September 17

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 11 MPH SW

The was a strong bias towards inside speed on the Main Track. The final race fell apart a bit but the winner spent a good portion of the race inside and the pace was extremely fast for the quality of the race. The Widener Turf played fairly but the rail on the Inner Turf was an advantage.

Thursday, September 16

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 10 MPH SW to West

With only seven flat races, there were three on the Main Track, three on the Widener, and one on the Inner Turf course. Speed dominated the dirt races, but with reasonably logical results, it's hard to say there was a bias. Being forward was an advantage on the Widener as well, but that may very well have had more to do with pace and race dynamics. There may be an advantage to being inside on the Inner Turf, but with one race, it's not reasonable to make any definitive assertions.

Sunday, July 11

Fast / Good

Cloudy

Wind 9 MPH NW

Inside speed did reasonably well on the Main Track but it was likely situational with mostly very logical results. The turf courses appeared to play fairly

Saturday, July 10

Good / Good

Cloudy

Wind 6 to 4 MPH SW

The inside two paths could have been an advantage on the Main Track, though the results were mostly logical. The turf courses were probably on the Yielding side of Good and appeared to play fairly.

Friday, July 9

Muddy ( sealed ) 1-6, Good ( Harrowed ) 7-9 ) / Off

Partly Cloudy

Wind 11 to 7 MPH SE switching to NE midday

It appeared that the best running was done at least a bit off the inside. The only mildly successful runner that was inside was in the 7th race, which is the first race after the track was harrowed. For the most part, riders stayed off the inside. Horses that stayed on the rail, particularly in the first half of the card, were very possibly compromised.

Monday, July 5

Fast / Good

Clear

Wind 8 to 12 MPH NNW

Speed did well on the Main Track but it may be very much circumstantial as the results throughout the day were very logical. The Turf had firmed up as the day went on, but both courses were still Good at best. They appeared to play fairly.

Sunday, July 4

Good / Yielding

Partly Cloudy

Wind 5 to 8 MPH N/NW

The Main Track played fairly. The rail was good but not an advantage. The track was labeled Good all day until the 10th race when it was upgraded to Fast. The turf courses likely played fairly. The two races on the Widener were won on the front end but it was likely more about race dynamics, and the horses, than any bias. We labeled each course Good for the 8th and 9th races but they played like they were Yielding.

Saturday, June 3

Sloppy ( sealed ) / OFF

Rainy

Wind 12 to 10 MPH SW

With heavy rains we were off the turf. The results were mostly logical but there seemed to be an advantage to being forwardly placed.

Friday, July 2

7 / 2 Track Trends

Sloppy ( sealed ) / Yielding

Showery

Wind 7 to 5 MPH NE to NNW

Despite the sloppy conditions, the main track appeared to play fairly. The rail was good but not an advantage. Mixture of running styles in the seen dirt races. One race on each turf course and they appeared to play fairly.

Thursday, July 1

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 6 MPH NE/NW

All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly. The rails were down on the Widener course.

Sunday, June 27

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 12 to 14 MPH NNE

We saw at least somewhat varied running styles be effective on all courses, turf and dirt, and mostly very logical results. Seems like the track was fair all around.

Saturday, June 26

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 12 to 16 MPH North

The Main Track played fairly. The Widener seemed relatively fair, though outside moves did well, and the Inner Turf races ( there were three ) were dominated by speed. This may well have been circumstantial, and the Inner often plays towards speed as the paces are frequently on the slow side, but worth noting.

Friday, June 25

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 11 MPH NNE to NNW

There seemed to be a bit of an outside flow to the dirt races. This may have been more situational than anything but could be worth following going forward. The turf courses played fairly.

Thursday, June 24

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 9 MPH NW

Outside closers did well in the few dirt races, but it was likely situational and not due to any bias. The turf courses continued to play fairly.

Sunday, June 20

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 8 to 11 MPH NE to North

All courses, dirt and turf, continue to play fairly

Saturday, June 19

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 9 MPH NE

There were only three dirt races but the track appeared to play fairly. The turf courses played fairly as well

Friday, June 18

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 11 to 14 MPH NE

All courses, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly.

Thursday, June 17

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 7 MPH SE to NE

All courses, dirt and turf, appeared to play fairly

Sunday, June 13

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 8 to 12 MPH NNW

All surfaces, dirt and turf, appeared to play fairly

Saturday, June 12

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 8 to 4 MPH NW

The Main Track played fairly, though it's possible you were best off not right on the rail. Not clear but may be worth following. The turf courses appeared to play fairly.

Friday, June 11

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 6 to 8 MPH NW

All surfaces, dirt and turf, appeared to play fairly

Thursday, June 10

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 11 MPH WNW

All courses, dirt and turf, appeared to play fairly. The rails were back out, this time 9 feet, on both grass courses.

Sunday, June 6

Fast / Fast

Clear

Wind 8 to 11 MPH NE

The Main Track played fairly. The Widener Turf was fair as well. There is an argument that being inside on the Inner Turf, keep in mind it was only the third day that the rails were down to zero, may have been an advantage. Worth following going forward.

Saturday, June 5

Good ( 1,3 ) Fast ( 4-11 )/ Good, Firm ( 12-13 )

Clear

Wind 8 to 11 MPH NE

While there were some questions about the rail on the Main Track, the Met Mile and Belmont made it clear the rail was fine and the track was fair. The turf courses, in great shape after Friday's rain, were Good for most of the day and upgraded to Firm for the final two races. The courses appeared to play fairly.

Friday, June 4

Muddy ( harrowed ) 1-4, Good 6-7, Sloppy ( sealed ) 8&11 / Yielding

Cloudy, Strong Storm after Race 7

Wind 5 to 8 MPH NE

Before the rain, speed dominated the dirt races for the most part, but it may have been circumstantial given mostly logical results save the 2 ^nd race. The one turf race before the rain was on the Widener and it was dominated up front. With the rails down for the first time on both courses the inside might have been an edge, even after the rain

Thursday, June 3

Good / Good

Cloudy

Wind 7 MPH North

Speed did well in the four dirt races but the results were supremely logical making it hard to say there was any bias. The turf courses, with the rails out significantly, appeared to play fairly. Worth comparing the posted times in the grass races to the Trakus times for what it's worth.

Monday, May 31

Muddy ( sealed ) / OFF

Partly Cloudy

Wind 9 to 6 MPH SE

While speed did well, especially later in the day, it may have been circumstantial, as the track seemed to play more fairly than the previous two days of racing.

Sunday, May 30

Sloppy ( sealed ) / OFF

Rainy

Wind 13 MPH SW

Speed continues to be an advantage, though we did see some effective closes, and the rail was good ( though not likely an advantage ).

Saturday, May 29

Sloppy ( sealed ) / OFF

Showery

Wind 14 MPH SW

After significant rain, and with some showers throughout the day, we were sloppy and off the turf. Speed appeared to have a distinct advantage throughout the card. The 10 ^th race was likely an exception because of the fast pace.

Friday, May 28

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 11 to 13 MPH WNW

There were only three dirt races, so it’s hard to detect any bias but it seems possible there was an advantage to spending at least some time on the rail. The turf courses appeared to play fairly with race dynamics, once again, playing the biggest role in race flow.

Sunday, May 23

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 11 MPH SE

All surfaces, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly

Saturday, May 22

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 7 to 9 MPH SE

Speed ( and the rail ) were good on the Main Track, though not clearly an advantage given the mostly logical results. The turf courses continue to play fairly with pace and race dynamics likely playing the most significant role in race flow.

Friday, May 21

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 9 to 11 MPH NE to North

The main track played fairly. Almost all the effective running on both turf courses was done inside. This could have been random, and due to mostly logical horses being successful with race dynamics in their favor, but it might be worth following going forward.

Thursday, May 20

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 9 MPH NW

Even though the main track appeared to favor inside speed, the speed figures don't indicate the winners ran especially fast, and outside runners appeared not to have been compromised, so it's likely the dirt was fair. The turf courses are likely fair as well, with dynamics, and logical results, being the biggest factors.

Sunday, May 16

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 9 to 11 MPH NE

There were only three dirt races, and it's worth considering that the rail was an advantage, however with such little data, it's far from conclusive. The turf courses appeared to play fairly.

Saturday, May 15

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 10 MPH NW to NE

All courses, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly

Friday, May 14

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 11 MPH NNE

Overall, all courses ( turf and dirt ) played fairly. Speed did well in three turf races but it was likely at least somewhat situation and related to dynamics

Thursday, May 13

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 4 to 6 MPH NE

All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly

Sunday, May 9

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 12 to 7 MPH NE

All courses, dirt and turf, continue to play fairly

Saturday, May 8

Fast / Good

Cloudy

Wind 9 to 4 MPH NW

Overall, all courses, dirt and turf, played fairly

Friday, May 7

Fast / Good

Clear

Wind 6 to 10 MPH NW

The main track played fairly. While speed did well on both turf courses, it appeared to be because of race dynamics and not any bias. There is an argument that the rail was an advantage in the Inner Turf.

Thursday, May 6

Fast / Good

Clear

Wind 8 MPH SE

The main track appeared to play fairly, as while speed did well in the majority of the races, it likely was not related to any kind of track bias. I would say the same for the turf courses as well.

Sunday, May 2

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 10 MPH NE

All courses, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly

Saturday, May 1

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 14 to 10 MPH SE

There is an argument looking at the dirt races that outside closers may have had an advantage, and that's entirely possible, but it also may have been more related to race dynamics and at least relatively logical results. The turf courses continue to play fairly.

Friday, April 30

Fast / Good

Clear

Wind 17 to 19 MPH ESE

All courses, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly

Thursday, April 29

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 6 to 10 MPH North

All courses, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly

Sunday, April 25

Sloppy ( Sealed ) / Off

Cloudy

Wind 9 MPH SSW to SSE

It seemed like the best running was done off the rail, but enough horses did well slightly off the rail to suggest the track was mostly fair.

Saturday, April 24

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 8 to 13 MPH NE

The turf courses have firmed up quite a bit since Thursday. All courses, dirt and turf, played fairly

Friday, April 23

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 14 MPH East

The Main Track appeared to play fairly. The turf courses are still listed as Firm, but are likely Good at best, especially the Widener. It's arguable that the Widener was favorable to closers, but the routes on that course often lean that way, and the paces of all three races may well have been on the quick side. The two races on the Inner Turf were dominated by logical horses.

Thursday, April 22

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 18 MPH ESE

The wind was a factor and being that it was a direct headwind on the backstretch, it appears to have caused the early fractions to be relatively slow. Speed dominated the three dirt races, but they were all won by favorites, so it's hard to declare there was any bias. As for the turf courses, while listed "Firm" based on the times, both courses were on the Yielding side of Good. It's possible speed was a bit of a disadvantage, particularly on the Widener, but the evidence is hardly conclusive.

Previous Years' Track Trends:

2020 Trends 2019 Trends 2018 Trends 2017 Trends