Track Trends

NYRA handicapper, Andy Serling, provides daily analysis of track trends and conditions at The Big A in an attempt to share his thoughts and insights into any possible track biases. This can be a helpful resource for handicappers as track conditions can change from one day to the next.

Belmont Park Track Trends   Saratoga Track Trends

Sunday, January 24

Fast

Clear

32

Wind 16 to 14 MPH SE

The track was fair.

Saturday, January 23

Fast

Clear

32

Wind 20 MPH SE

The track was on the slow side but the races appeared to play fairly with horses running effectively both inside and out.

Friday, January 22

Fast

Cloudy

45

Wind 17 to 15 MPH ESE

Overall, the track appeared to play fairly with multiple running styles effective.

Thursday, January 21

Fast

Clear

41

Wind 14 to 10 MPH NE

While some races made the track appear to favor an outside flow, others were dominated by speed and/or inside runners, making the track appear fair overall.

Monday, January 18

Fast
Clear
45
Wind 13 MPH E

Strange day in that some races it looked like an outside track and some an inside track. The only logical conclusion is that the track was fair with horses and race dynamics being the deciding factors.

Sunday, January 17

Fast
Clear
43
Wind 19 to 14 MPH E

The track appeared to play fairly, with speed doing fine and deep closers running effectively as well. The best running seemed to be done at least a path off the rail but there's little to no evidence the rail was dead.

Saturday, January 16

Muddy (sealed)
Parly Cloudy
46
Wind 11 to 14 MPH NE to E late

For the most part, forwardly placed horses did best, though not impossible to make up ground. Early it appeared the rail was bad, and perhaps being right inside was bad, but as the day wore on it’s not clear that was the case. A bit confusing and worth following.

Friday, January 15

Fast
Cloudy
46
Wind 13 to 16 MPH W

It was very hard to make up any significant ground, as speed and forwardly placed horses dominated and some seemed to overperform. The rail was good but not clearly an advantage.

Sunday, January 10

Fast
Clear
37
Wind 11 to 9 MPH SE

The track appeared to play fairly.

Saturday, January 9

Fast
Clear
37
Wind 15 MPH SSE

There is a valid argument the rail was an advantage, as a good deal of the best running was done inside, but how strong this was is debatable. It's at least worth keeping an eye on going forward.

Friday, January 8

Fast
Cloudy
40
Wind 9 MPH SE

The track was fair.

Thursday, January 7

Fast
Clear
41
Wind 14 to 12 MPH SE

The track was fair.

Sunday, January 3

Muddy (sealed)
Showery
39
Wind 8 MPH SSE

While the track seemed similar to the prior day, with the best running being a bit off the inside, enough horses ran OK along the rail to question how bad the it was inside.

Saturday, January 2

Muddy (sealed)
Clear
52
Wind 14 MPH SW

The best running was done at least a couple paths off the inside. There is a reasonable argument that the rail was bad. The races featured a fair mix of successful speed and closers.

Friday, January 1

Muddy (harrowed)
Cloudy
39
Wind 6 MPH WSW

There is some evidence that speed was a big advantage today. However, given the resulting speed figures, it doesn't appear that horses overperformed on the front end. There were also a couple of races where horses made significant runs from well back to finish second. However, overall, we did not see many effective runs from behind, so perhaps it was more difficult to close than speed horses having their performances enhanced. Interesting day worth thinking about when horses run back.

Thursday, December 31

Sloppy (sealed)
Cloudy
45
Wind 9 MPH SE

Fair mix of speed and closers were successful throughout the day. The rail was not the place to be, and perhaps at least a few paths off the inside was best.

Sunday, December 20

Fast
Cloudy
36
Wind 7 to 4 MPH NE

Much like 12/19, the rail was a distinct advantage. We saw some horses close effectively on the outside, but those were taking advantage of rapid paces.

Saturday, December 19

Fast
Clear
32
Wind 3 MPH S to SE

There is a strong argument that the rail was a very big advantage. Interestingly enough, we saw a few races where outside closers did well, but these were races with fast, and contested, paces that essentially fell apart. The gaps between runners, along with high speed figures for horses taking advantage of the inside bias, suggests a strong bias. The track still played slowly like Friday, which makes the appearance of the bias somewhat surprising, but there is solid evidence it existed.

Friday, December 18

Fast
Cloudy
32
Wind 13 to 9 MPH SE

The track seemed to be very fair. Inside speed, and inside runners, did very well at times, while outside closers were dominant at others. Interesting day. The track was playing very slowly after nearly one foot of snow on Wednesday night into Thursday, but the track was dry and in great shape.

Sunday, December 13

Fast
Clear
57
Wind 12 MPH ESE

While there is an argument that being inside was an advantage, enough of the races were run fairly, with outside closers doing well, that overall the track was probably fair. Worth following going forward.

Saturday, December 12

Fast / Good
Foggy
52
Wind 8 to 10 MPH NW to NE

With fog surrounding the track most of the day, visibility was somewhat limited. Being forward on the Main Track seemed to be a possible advantage, but enough horses made significant runs from far back to suggest it was likely at least relatively fair. This was the final day of Turf racing in 2020. The one race on the Outer Turf played fairly. The race on the Inner Turf was shrouded by fog so who knows.

Friday, December 11

Fast / Good
Clear
52
Wind 13 to 10 MPH NE

The Main Track appeared to play fairly. The rail was good if not an advantage. The inside may have been an edge on the Outer Turf but it was not pronounced. The Inner Turf Course played fairly in the one race.

Thursday, December 10

Fast / Good
Clear
48
Wind 13 to 11 MPH SE

The Main Track appeared to play fairly with mostly logical results throughout the day. There was one race on each turf course. With the rails down on the Outer Turf for the first time since 11/8 it's possible being inside for at least a portion of the race was an advantage, but that is far from clear.

Sunday, December 6

Fast
Clear
41
Wind 18 to 16 MPH SE

While the races were somewhat dominated by horses making outside moves, the track was probably relatively fair, as enough speed types, or horses at least towards the inside, did well to suggest there was no real bias. Perhaps it's worth following going forward.

Saturday, December 5

Sloppy (sealed) / Off
Cloudy
44
Wind 22 to 20 MPH SE

There may have been a slight advantage to being forwardly placed, but there were enough horses to make up ground from at least reasonably far back to suggest it was relatively fair. The majority of the running was done at least a few paths off the rail and there is an argument the inside was not a good place to be.

Friday, December 4

Fast / Good
Cloudy
52
Wind 12 MPH NE

It appears it was an advantage to be forward in the dirt races, not necessarily on the lead but close. The turf appeared to play fairly.

Thursday, December 3

Fast / Good
Clear
50
Wind 11 MPH NE

Overall it appeared that all courses and surfaces played fairly.

Sunday, November 29

Fast / Good
Clear
53
Wind 5 to 8 MPH NE

Speed continued to do well on the Main Track though it's not clear it was a big advantage. Worth following. The Turf courses played fairly.

Saturday, November 28

Fast / Yielding (Outer Turf) Good (Inner Turf)
Clear
55
Wind 9 to 12 MPH SE

Speed did well on the Main Track, but it may have been situational, as overall the course played at least reasonably fairly. Both Turf courses played fairly with the Inner perhaps having slightly less give than the Outer.

Friday, November 27

Good / Good
Clear
60
Wind 6 MPH NE

Though speed may have been an advantage on the Main Track, it may well have been at least somewhat situational, and over all the track leaned towards fair. There continues to be some argument that it may have been difficult to run through the kick back, but there was enough evidence this was not the case to suggest it was not, overall, a major factor. There were two turf races, each on the Inner Turf Course, and it they appeared to play out fairly.

Sunday, November 22

Fast / Firm
Cloudy
50
Wind 13 MPH WSW

All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly.

Saturday, November 21

Fast / Firm
Clear
63
Wind 8 to 6 MPH SE

All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly.

Friday, November 20

Fast / Firm
Clear
55
Wind 13 to 11 MPH NE

All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly.

Thursday, November 19

Fast / Firm
Clear
45
Wind 15 MPH NE

Speed was very good on the Main track, and possibly a real advantage, with inside runners doing well. Not a clear bias but worth following as closers may have been hindered. The Outer Turf seemed to play fairly with speed inside a possible advantage on the Inner Turf. Could have been somewhat situational, however, and more pace related.

Sunday, November 15

Fast / Good
Clear
57
Wind 18 to 22 MPH NW

There is a reasonable argument that all surfaces, and courses, played fairly. Inside runners could have had an advantage on the Outer Turf course but that's far from clear.

Saturday, November 14

Muddy ( 1-2-4 ) Good ( 5-7-10 ) / Yielding ( Outer ) Good ( Inner )
Clear
51
Wind 12 to 8 MPH SE

Forwardly placed horses did well on the Main Track, which was drying throughout the day, and while the majority of the running from behind was done outside, that’s fairly normal, and the first winner did come from well back right up the rail. As for the turf, the Inner was firmer ( Good ) than the Outer ( yielding ), and with the rails up, the courses played more fairly than opening weekend. Whether it was situational or not, the two races on the Outer were won by horses that were on the rail, while outside closers won the two races on the Inner Turf.

Friday, November 13
Sloppy ( sealed ) / Off
Showers
53
Wind 8 to 10 MPH SE

With more rain overnight and into the race card, the track was sloppy and we were off the turf. The track continues to play fairly and the rail was good, though not an advantage.

Thursday, November 12
Muddy ( sealed ) / Off
Cloudy
54
Wind 15 MPH S

With heavy rain overnight, the track was muddy and sealed and we were off the turf. The races played out fairly, with speed and closers doing well, and while many riders stayed off the inside, there is no evidence it was off at all.

Sunday, November 8
Fast / Firm
Clear
73
Wind 2 to 4 MPH NE

The Main Track appeared to play fairly with speed doing well, but closers, mostly outside, also doing well. It continues to be an advantage on the turf courses to save ground, though some races collapsed, and the Outer Turf might have been more fair than the first two days of the meet.

Saturday, November 7
Fast / Firm
Clear
69
Wind 6 MPH NE

Overall, the main track appeared to play fairly. The turf courses continued to very much favor horses that spent at least a significant portion of the race on the rail.

Friday, November 6
Fast / Firm
Clear
64
Wind 8 MPH NE

The dirt track seemed to favor forwardly placed horses, though it may have been situational, with most of the best running done outside. We did see horses run well inside though so it was in no way a bad rail. The turf courses, both, were heavily biased towards horses that saved ground for at least a significant portion of the race. It was possible to close as long as the horse was inside for much of the race.

Sunday, March 15
Fast
Clear
50
Wind 5 to 10 MPH SE to NE

The majority of the best running continues to be done at least a path or two off the rail. How bad the rail was is debatable, as there are some exceptions, particularly the 4th race. The 4th race seemed to be run in isolation, as not only did the track seem different, with inside position dominating, it was also a much quicker race/track than any other race all day. Worth following this day going forward.

Saturday, March 14
Fast
Clear
53
Wind 13 to 11 MPH SE

While there was some effective running done towards the inside, it does seem like the best running was done at least a little bit off the inside.

Friday, March 13
Good ( 1-5 ) / Fast ( 6-9 )
Cloudy
64
Wind 13 to 19 MPH NE to EAST

Virtually all the effective running was done off the rail, at least two or three paths. Whether or not the inside was bad is at least somewhat questionable, but it seems fairly likely.

Sunday, March 8
Fast
Clear
55
Wind 10 to 12 MPH NE

There is an argument that outside stalker types did best, but this may well have been situational and much more due to race dynamics. The 8th race would argue the rail was good, at least in the stretch. As always, worth following going forward.

Saturday, March 7
Fast
Clear
44
Wind 20 to 12 MPH SE

The track appeared to play fairly.

Friday, March 6
Fast
Cloudy with showers during the day
44
Wind 14 MPH SW

The track appeared to play fairly overall.

Sunday, March 1
Fast
Clear
44
Wind 13 to 11 MPH E/SE

Arguably, unlike the prior two days, the rail appeared to be off, though the 9th race argues against that. Possibly the outside was a bit better than the inside more than the rail being bad. Worth keeping an eye on going forward.

Saturday, February 29
Fast
Cloudy
37
Wind 15 to 18 MPH E/SE

Much like 2/28, being inside appeared to be an advantage. Not to say it was carrying horses, but it seemed to help in many of the races.

Friday, February 28
Fast
Clear
40
Wind 19 MPH NE

The rail appeared to be a distinct advantage, and likely spending at least a reasonable portion of the race inside was beneficial.

Sunday, February 23
Fast
Clear
50
Wind 9 MPH NE

While a lot of the running seemed to be a few paths off the inside, enough successful running was done inside to suggest the rail was fine, as overall the track appeared to play fairly.

Saturday, February 22
Fast
Clear
45
Wind 11 to 13 MPH NE

The rail was good again, how strong is debatable, but it sure didn't hurt. With many logical results, and favorable forward pace dynamics, it's hard to say there was any real bias.

Friday, February 21
Fast
Clear
34
Wind 8 to 6 MPH SE

There is a strong argument the rail was a big advantage. Not specifically speed, and we saw some effective closing outside, but runners inside seemed to benefit greatly from that position. Also, the track possibly sped up the second half of the card.

Thursday, February 20
Fast
Cloudy
34
Wind 7 to 10 MPH SE

The track played fairly but there is a good argument that you did not want to be right on the rail. A path or two off the rail seemed fine, but a number of horses stopped badly right on the rail.

Monday, February 17
Fast
Clear
47
Wind 4 MPH NE to SE

The rail was good, though not specifically an advantage, while overall the track played fairly.

Sunday, February 16
Fast
Cloudy
43
Wind 8 to 5 MPH NE

There is an argument that the rail in the stretch was a disadvantage. Not a dead rail situation, but perhaps deeper than paths off the inside. Otherwise the track appeared to play fairly.

Saturday, February 15
Fast
Clear
26
Wind 5 to 9 MPH NE/N

Arguably it seemed you were better off at least a bit off the inside early in the day, but this did not seem the case as the day wore on. Likely the track played fairly.

Friday, February 14
Good
Clear
32
Wind 14 MPH SE

There is a reasonable question of whether or not the rail was the best place to be. Some successful horses raced inside for at least part of the race, which makes it hard to believe the inside was bad, but some seemingly logical horses faltered badly while running on the fence. Worth watching, with at least some skepticism, going forward. Otherwise, speed and closers faired fine throughout the day.

Sunday, February 9
Fast
Cloudy
45
Wind 7 to 12 MPH NW to North late

The track appeared to play fairly overall. The rail was good but no apparent advantage.

Saturday, February 8
Good ( 1-5 ) / Fast ( 6-9 )
Clear
41
Wind 15 to 11 MPH NE

The track appeared to play fairly but there is a possibility there was some advantage to being inside. It definitely didn't appear to hurt.

Thursday, February 6
Sloppy ( Sealed )
Showers
45
Wind 4 to 8 MPH SW

While speed frequently did well, enough horses made at least somewhat successful runs from the back to suggest the track was fair. Horses often stayed off of the inside, but a number of horses ran well on the rail, all of which suggests a fair track overall.

Sunday, February 2
Fast
Clear
43
Wind 11 to 14 MPH E/NE

Forwardly placed runners did well throughout the day, but it was probably at least somewhat situational, as enough stalker types did well enough to suggest the track was fair. Pretty much all the successful running was done a couple paths or more off the rail, but there is no real evidence to suggest the rail was off.

Saturday, February 1
Fast
Cloudy
43
Wind 2 to 3 MPH SE

While the rail was good, it wasn't clearly an advantage, and the track appeared to play fairly.

Friday, January 31
Fast
Cloudy
44
Wind 5 to 8 MPH NW

The track appeared to play fairly.

Thursday, January 30
Fast
Clear
35
Wind 1 to 5 MPH SW to NW

While we saw some logical results, we saw some longshots as well, and it seems the rail was an extreme advantage. While horses were successful outside, and clearly not hindered, quite a few horses clearly seemed to benefit from being inside, both forwardly placed and closing from well back. Interesting track.

Sunday, January 26
Muddy ( harrowed ) 1-2 / Good 3-8
Clear
45
Wind 13 to 11 MPH E/SE

The rail was good, though not clearly an advantage, and the track appeared to play fairly overall. Speed did well, but wasn't necessarily an advantage.

Saturday, January 25
Good ( sealed ) 1-2 / Muddy ( sealed ) 3-4 / Sloppy ( sealed ) 5-9
Rain
48
Wind 23 to 12 MPH West to NW

The track appeared to play fairly overall, though most of the best running was done at least a few paths off the rail, especially as the day went on and the track turned sloppy.

Friday, January 24
Fast
Clear
51
Wind 7 to 9 MPH West

Overall the track played fairly. We saw closers be effective in the majority of the races, but it was likely situational, and not a bias of any kind.

Thursday, January 23
Fast
Clear
42
Wind 3 to 5 MPH NE

The track appeared to play fairly, though speed and the inside did well, but it was likely situational and not really an advantage.

Monday, January 20
Good
Clear
30
Wind 15-12 MPH SE

The track appeared to play fairly. While much of the running was done off the rail, horses were effective inside. Overall there appeared to be no path bias.

Sunday, January 19
Sloppy (Sealed)
Clear
44
Wind 17 MPH SE

The vast majority of the running was done at least a few paths off the rail. Hard to know if there was anything wrong with the rail, or if the track was other than fair, given the logical results throughout the day. Speed did well, but it's not clear it wasn't situational.

Saturday, January 18
Fast
Cloudy/Snow
32
Wind 11 to 7 MPH NE

While many of the results were logical, it was clear that speed, and perhaps the inside as well, was an advantage, as few, if any, horses made significant runs from even relatively far back.

Friday, January 17
Fast
Clear
28
Wind 17 to 13 MPH SE

The races were dominated by forwardly placed horses, with few horses making any effective runs from well back, and while the rail was good, it did not appear to be a significant advantage, if even one at all.

Sunday, January 12
Fast
Cloudy
60
Wind 19 to 14 MPH E/SE

While speed did OK, there is no evidence it was a distinct advantage, nor was there any particular path bias ( inside or out ). Overall, the track seemed fair. 

Saturday, January 11
Fast
Clear
58
Wind 19 MPH N/NE

An argument can be made that inside speed was an advantage, though in most cases speed more than path position, but it wasn't impossible to make up ground. Can't call it a strong bias but worth monitoring going forward.

Friday, January 10
Fast
Cloudy
49
Wind 6 to 8 MPH NE

Speed was possibly an advantage, as was the rail, though a number of successful speed horses drifted off the inside during the stretch run. Still, it's worth at least entertaining the possibility that inside speed was somewhat of an advantage.

Thursday, January 9
Fast
Clear
32
Wind 5 to 2 MPH S/SE to E/SE

Speed did well but it may have been situational, as we saw some stalkers also perform well. While much of the running was done off the rail, the inside was good, if not an advantage, as the 4th winner excelled inside. Likely a fair track with, perhaps, a slight lean towards speed.

Sunday, January 5
Muddy ( 1-6 ) / Good ( 7-9 )
Clear
42
Wind 22 to 18 MPH SE

While track was listed as "muddy" for much of the day, it felt more like "good" pretty much from the start. While most of the running was done at least a path or two, if not more, off the rail, it's far from clear the inside was bad. At the very least, it was better than 1/4. The track was fair for speed and closers.

Saturday, January 4
Sloppy ( sealed )
Foggy ( 1-2 ) / Cloudy
49
Wind 4 to 6 MPH NE to SE

The track played relatively fairly, except the inside was bad and it was best to be at least a few paths off the rail, though it was better to be at least somewhat forwardly placed. The exception was the 5th race, but this was a pace meltdown.

Wednesday, January 1
Good
Cloudy
41
Wind 18 to 15 MPH E/SE

Another day where the majority of the running was done at least a few paths off the rail, yet there is no evidence the rail was off, and the 4th race in particular suggests it was fine.

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