Track Trends

NYRA handicapper Andy Serling provides daily analysis of track trends and conditions at The Big A in an attempt to share his thoughts and insights into any possible track biases. This can be a helpful resource for handicappers as track conditions can change from one day to the next.

Belmont Park Track Trends | Saratoga Track Trends

2023

Sunday, September 17

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 15 MPH South

The rail remains good on the Main Track but, overall, the track played fairly. The turf courses played fairly as well.

Saturday, September 16

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 10 to 25 MPH West

Much like 9/15, the rail seemed good on the Main Track, but in the more competitive races it didn't appear to be a significant advantage. Most likely, the Main Track was at least close to fair. The turf courses appeared to play fairly.

Friday, September 15

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 10 to 20 MPH North

The rail was good on the Main Track, but in the most competitive races, the 6^th and 7th, it was pretty clear the track played fairly. The turf courses played fairly, though saving ground will pretty much always be an advantage on the Inner, more due to the tighter turns than an actual bias ( unless the rails have been taken to zero ).

Thursday, September 14

Fast / Good

Clear

Wind 10 to 25 MPH NW

The rail was good on the Main Track. How much of an advantage is debatable, as the results were pretty logical. Forwardly placed horses also dominated. The rails were out 9 feet on the Inner Turf and 36 on the Outer. Both races on the Outer were dominated forward and by horses that saved ground. Not sure it was a bias. Saving ground may have been an advantage on the Inner as well but there isn't a ton of evidence to back it up. Might be worth following.

Sunday, April 30

Sloppy ( sealed ) / Off

Rain

Wind 15 to 25 MPH East

The races were dominated by forwardly placed horses. While much of the running was done well off the rail, horses were successful just off the inside in a couple of races suggesting there wasn't an extreme path bias.

Saturday, April 29

Sloppy ( sealed ) / Off

Rain

Wind 15 to 25 MPH East

While most of the best running was done off the rail, enough horses ran well in the two path to suggest the track was at least relatively fair. Speed and closers did well.

Friday, April 28

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 15 to 25 MPH East

Most of the running on the Main Track was done well off the rail. There is no evidence the rail was bad but might be worth following. The turf courses played fairly.

Thursday, April 27

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 10 to 20 MPH SE

The Main Track played fairly and the rail was good, if not an advantage. The rail was at 24 feet on the Outer Turf and there may be an argument the rail was an advantage. The rails were out 27 feet on the Inner and the course played fairly.

Sunday, April 23

Sloppy ( sealed ) 1-7; Muddy ( sealed ) 8-9 / Off

Cloudy

Wind 10 to 20 MPH West

After overnight rains, the track was sloppy/muddy and we were off the turf. Most of the running was done at least a couple paths off the rail, though how bad the rail was is debatable, with forwardly placed horses dominating.

Saturday, April 22

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 10 to 20 MPH SE

The rail continues to be dead on the Main Track. Speed did fine as long as you were off the inside. The turf courses played fairly.

Friday, April 21

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 10 to 20 MPH East

The rail was likely dead on the Main Track with most of the effective running done at least a path or two off the rail, and many riders staying well off the inside. The rails on the Inner Turf were out 18 feet ( 36 on the Outer ) with both courses playing fairly.

Thursday, April 20

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 5 to 15 MPH SE

Horses mostly stayed a path or two off the rail on the Main Track, and most of the effective running was done at least a little off the rail, but whether or not the rail was bad is open to debate. Likely worth following. There were two turf races, with both on the Outer, rails at 36 feet, and they appeared to play fairly.

Sunday, April 16

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 5 to 20 MPH South

Most of the best running was done off the rail on the Main Track, often at least a few paths wide. Given the track for much of this week, it seems very possible the rail was dead. The turf courses played fairly.

Saturday, April 15

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 10 to 20 MPH SE

The Main Track had an outside flow. Not clear the rail was as bad as 4/14 but most of the running was done outside. The turf courses played fairly, though there may have been an edge to saving ground on the Outer Turf.

Friday, April 14

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 10 to 20 MPH South

There is a strong argument the rail was dead on the Main Track, and all the effective running was done outside. There were two turf races on the Outer course, and one on the Inner, and they appeared to play fairly.

Thursday, April 13

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 10 to 20 MPH SW

The Main Track played fairly. The turf courses are already extremely firm ( no rain and warm temperatures ) The rails are up 9 feet on the Inner and 12 on the Outer. The rail appeared to be an advantage on the Outer ( two races ) though logical horses won both races and in the sprint the runner up made a wide close from well back. The one race on the Inner played fairly.

Saturday, April 8

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 5 to 10 North

The Main Track played fairly. Speed did well, as it often does, but enough late runs were effective to suggest the track was fair. The Turf courses played fairly overall.

Friday, April 7

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 15 to 25 NW

The Main Track played fairly. The rails were at 0 for the first day of turf racing on both courses. There is an argument the rail was an advantage on the Outer. Hard to tell on the Inner but the winner, the second choice, closed up the inside.

Thursday, April 6

Fast

Cloudy

Wind 5 to 20 South

The rail was good, but not a significant advantage as the track appeared to play fairly.

Sunday, April 2

Fast

Clear

Wind 15 to 25 NW

The rail was good, possibly a slight advantage, but over all the track played fairly.

Saturday, April 1

Muddy ( sealed )

Showers Early

Wind 15 to 25 SSW

Most of the running was done at least a path or two off the rail, but whether or not the rail was bad is hard to know for sure. Speed, or forwardly placed, horses dominated the results, and arguably it was hard to make up significant ground.

Friday, March 31

Fast

Cloudy

Wind 15 to 25 South

While the track played fairly, there is an argument the rail was a real advantage. How significant is unclear, and outside runners did well overall, but worth following rail runners.

Thursday, March 30

Fast

Clear

Wind 15 to 25 NW

The track played fairly.

Sunday, March 26

Fast

Clear

Wind 15 to 25 West

The rail was good, though not a clear advantage, as overall the track played fairly.

Saturday, March 25

Good ( Harrowed 1-5; Sealed 6-10 )

Showers

Wind 15 to 25 East

With the track harrowed for the first half of the card, the track played fairly, but there is an argument the rail was a slight advantage. Worth following. After the track was sealed ( for the 6^th ) most riders seemed to stay at least a little off the rail. Whether or not the rail was bad is open to debate. Otherwise those races played out fairly.

Friday, March 24

Fast

Cloudy

Wind 5 to 10 NW to West

The track played fairly with a mix of successful running styles.

Sunday, March 19

Fast

Clear

Wind 15 to 25 West

The rail was likely an advantage, but how strong is debatable, as some races it looked like a big advantage and other races played out fairly. Worth following, but likely the track was at least relatively fair.

Saturday, March 18

Fast

Clear

Wind 15 to 25 NW

While the rail was good, and perhaps a slight advantage, overall the track played fairly, though forwardly placed horses dominated the results.

Friday, March 17

Fast

Clear

Wind 10 to 20 South

The track played fairly. The rail was good but seemingly no advantage.

Sunday, March 12

Good ( 1-3 ); Fast ( 4-9 )

Cloudy

Wind 5 to 15 NW

The track appeared to play fairly, though there is an argument the rail was an advantage ( as has been the case most days after a sloppy/muddy and sealed track).

Saturday, March 11

Sloppy ( sealed )

Cloudy

Wind 15 to 25 North

Speed was good throughout the day, though those results were pretty logical. Most riders stayed at least a path or two off the rail, and much of the best running was done a bit wider.

Friday, March 10

Fast

Cloudy

Wind 10 to 20 East

The rail was a significant advantage. Most successful horses spent at least a portion of the race inside.

Sunday, March 5

Fast

Clear

Wind 15 to 25 MPH North to NW

The rail was a significant advantage. Some outside runners did well, but in many cases, horses attempting make outside runs spun their wheels.

Saturday, March 4

Muddy ( sealed )

Cloudy

Wind 15 to 25 MPH North

Most horses stayed at least a little off the rail, and much of the best running was done outside, but some successful runners spent time early in the race inside. Overall, the track played fairly. Might be worth keeping an eye on the few horses that stayed inside for much of the race.

Friday, March 3

Fast

Cloudy

Wind 5 to 10 MPH North to 10 to 20 East

We saw quite a few logical winners, but a case could be made that the rail was at least somewhat of an advantage, especially as the day wore on. Worth keeping in mind.

Sunday, February 26

Fast

Cloudy

Wind 15 to 25 MPH SW

While speed dominated, it was really the rail that was the big advantage, and even effective closers often spent time inside.

Saturday, February 25

Fast

Cloudy

Wind 5 to 10 MPH NE to SE

While the track appeared to play fairly, the rail seemed to be a distinct advantage, despite horses running well outside. Worth following going forward.

Friday, February 24

Fast

Clear

Wind 15 to 25 MPH NW

Inside speed did well but overall the track played fairly.

Monday, February 20

Fast

Clear

Wind 10 to 20 MPH West

The track played fairly. Outside closers did well, but so did inside speed.

Sunday, February 19

Fast

Cloudy

Wind 15 to 25 MPH SW

The track played fairly.

Saturday, February 18

Fast

Clear

Wind 15 to 25 MPH NW

There is an argument that, especially as the day wore on, that the rail was a significant advantage. Worth following going forward.

Friday, February 17

Sloppy ( sealed )

Showers

Wind 15 to 25 MPH SW to NW

Wild weather day with the wind shifting significantly and the temperature dropping sharply. Speed did well but, overall, the track played fairly. Riders stayed off the rail for the most part, with much of the effective running being done well out into the track, but there isn't significant evidence the rail was bad. Worth following ( the few horses that stayed inside ).

Sunday, February 12

Fast

Cloudy

Wind 5 to 10 MPH NE

The track played fairly. The rail seemed fine but no advantage.

Saturday, February 11

Fast

Clear

Wind 15 to 25 MPH NW

The track played fairly. There were races that made it appear that inside speed was a big advantage, and the rail was good, but too many where outside closers did well to suggest the track was anything other than fair overall.

Friday, February 10

Fast

Clear

Wind 15 to 25 MPH West

Similar to 2/9, the rail was good, and likely an advantage, but many races played fairly. Tough read overall.

Thursday, February 9

Fast

Cloudy

Wind 15 to 25 MPH South

The rail was good, and a possible advantage, but enough horses made successful outside moves that it's hard to say the track was strongly biased.

Sunday, February 5

Fast

Cloudy

Wind 15 to 25 MPH SW

The track played fairly. The rail was good but no advantage.

Thursday, February 2

Fast

Clear

Wind 10 to 25 MPH SW

The track played fairly with logical results dominating the afternoon.

Sunday, January 29

Fast

Cloudy

Wind 15 to 25 MPH South

The track played fairly.

Saturday, January 28

Fast

Clear

Wind 10 to 20 MPH West

While the rail was fine, it was no real advantage, as the track played fairly.

Friday, January 27

Fast

Clear

Wind 10 to 20 MPH West

Similar to last week when the track dried after heavy rain, we saw a strong inside bias. The rail was a huge advantage.

Thursday, January 26

Muddy ( sealed )

Cloudy

Wind 15 to 25 MPH West

The track appeared to play fairly, with runners doing fine inside, and logical results throughout the day.

Sunday, January 22

Fast

Cloudy

Wind 10 to 20 MPH NE

While we saw some effective runs outside, for the most part saving ground was a significant advantage. and this created several exaggerated margins.

Saturday, January 21

Fast

Cloudy

Wind 5 to 15 MPH NW

The rail was a definite advantage. While speed did fairly well, the rail was the advantage.

Friday, January 20

Muddy (Harrowed) 1; Muddy (sealed) 2-8

Showers

Wind 15 to 30 MPH West

Some showers came after the 1^st and the track was sealed for the rest of the day. The rail was not the place to be and the best running was likely done at least two to three paths off the rail.

Thursday, January 19

Good (sealed) 1-5; Muddy (sealed) 6-7; Sloppy (sealed) 8

Rain

Wind 15 to 25 MPH NE

As the day wore on, and the track took on more moisture, riders stayed a bit more off the rail, but there is no evidence the rail was bad, in fact it seemed good, not necessarily an advantage, earlier. Ultimately, while speed did fairly well, the track was pretty fair. On days like this, with rain most of the day, it's always possible the track at least subtly changed during the day.

Sunday, January 15

Fast

Clear

Wind 15 to 30 MPH North

Another day where the track played on the slow side, and speed did fairly well, but for the most part the track appeared to play relatively fairly.

Saturday, January 14

Good

Snow Flurries

Wind 15 to 25 MPH North

There were strong winds, with some gusts, and the track played very slowly, though it sped up as the day went on. While listed as Good, it was likely close to Fast, especially as the day wore on. For the most part, forwardly placed horses dominated, and there is an argument that the rail was at least a minor advantage, while dynamics also played its frequent major role in how the races were decided.

Friday, January 13

Sloppy ( sealed )

Cloudy

Wind 15 to 25 MPH NW

Most of the running was done off the inside but enough horses ran well inside to suggest the rail was fine. Speed dominated the races with little meaningful ground made up throughout the day.

Thursday, January 12

Fast

Cloudy

Wind 5 to 15 MPH SE

While much of the running was done a path or two off the rail, the rail was fine, and the track was fair.

Sunday, January 8

Fast

Clear

Wind 5 to 10 MPH SW

Similar to 1/7 in that the track was relatively fair but the rail was an advantage.

Saturday, January 7

Muddy ( harrowed ) 1-3; Good ( Harrowed ) 4-10

Clear

Wind 6 to 9 MPH SE

The rail was good but how much of an advantage was debatable as enough of the races played out fairly. Still, overall, speed did well, and being inside likely helped.

Friday, January 6

Sloppy ( sealed )

Showery

Wind 6 to 9 MPH SSE

The track played fairly with a mis of speed and closers doing well. Most of the best running was done at least a few paths off the rail. It's possible the rail wasn't bad but probably better off at least a couple paths off it.

Thursday, January 5

Sloppy ( sealed )

Cloudy

Wind 5 MPH SW

Speed appeared to be an advantage, but how much of one is debatable as it may have been more relatively logical results and race dynamics. The rail was good and possible advantage, but likely not severe.

Sunday, January 1

Muddy ( sealed )

Clear

Wind 11 to 7 MPH SE

Fair mix of successful running styles. Much of the best running was done off the inside but there is no evidence the rail was bad. Probably a fair track.

Download previous years' track trends below:

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