Track Trends

NYRA handicapper, Andy Serling, provides daily analysis of track trends and conditions at The Big A in an attempt to share his thoughts and insights into any possible track biases. This can be a helpful resource for handicappers as track conditions can change from one day to the next.

Belmont Park Track Trends Saratoga Track Trends

2021

Sunday, April 18

Fast / Inner Turf - Firm - Outer Turf - Good

Clear

Wind 7 to 11 MPH NE

All courses, dirt and turf, played fairly

Saturday, April 17

Muddy ( harrowed ) / Good

Cloudy

Wind 7 MPH SE

All surfaces, dirt and turf, played fairly

Friday, April 16

Muddy ( harrowed ) 1st / Good ( harrowed ) 2nd-8th

Cloudy

Wind 15 MPH SE

The track played fairly and the rail was good, though not likely an advantage.

Thursday, April 15

Sloppy ( sealed ) / Yielding

Rainy

Wind 9 to 6 MPH NW

As is frequently the case on sloppy tracks, most of the racing was done at least a path or two off the rail, but there is no evidence the rail was bad. The races seemed to be run fairly, though speed did well overall. There was one turf race on each course, during the rain, and while the courses had a lot of give, the two races seemed to be run fairly.

Sunday, April 11

Muddy ( sealed ) 1-3; Sloppy ( sealed ) 5-9 / Good ( 4 )

Showers

Wind 11 to 15 MPH W/SW

Most of the running on the dirt was done at least a couple of paths off the rail. There were a mix of successful running styles as well. There was only one race on the grass. Hard to draw any conclusions.

Saturday, April 10

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 7 to 9 MPH NW

All surfaces, dirt and turf, appeared to play fairly

Friday, April 9

4 / 9 Track Trends

Fast / Firm

Cloudy

Wind 9 to 7 MPH NW

All surfaces, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly

Thursday, April 8

Fast / Firm

Clear

Wind 7 to 10 MPH NE/N

The five dirt races saw mostly very logical results. They were dominated by stalkers, and a few paths off the rail, but there is nothing definitive to suggest the track wasn't fair. There were two races on the Outer Turf, both Sprints, and one was won wire to wire and the other from well back. The one race on the Inner Turf appeared to play fairly.

Saturday, April 3

Fast / Inner - Fast; Outer - Good

Clear

Wind 10 to 7 MPH SE to NE

The Main Track played fairly. There was one race on each turf course and they appeared to play evenly with favorites dominating both races.

Friday, April 2

Fast / Inner - Good; Outer - Yielding

Clear

Wind 13 MPH SE

While much of the running on the Main Track was done a few paths off the rail, enough horses ran well towards the inside to suggest the track was likely fair. Turf racing kicked off in 2021 with one race on each course, and given the logical results, it's hard to suggest there was any bias on either course.

Thursday, April 1

Sloppy ( sealed )

Cloudy

Wind 16 MPH SE

The track played fairly, as even though it seemed closers faired better than speed horses, it didn't seem to hamper speed. Most of the best running was done well off the rail, though the last two winners were only a path or two off the inside.

Sunday, March 28

3 / 28 Track Trends

Sloppy ( sealed )

Foggy

Wind 14 to 16 MPH NNW to NNE

The track seemed to play fairly, in that speed did OK as did closers, but the majority of the running was done well off the rail.

Saturday, March 27

Fast

Clear

Wind 8 to 12 MPH NE to NNW

It may have been somewhat situational, but it seemed like forwardly placed horses had an advantage. Worth following going forward

Friday, March 26

Good

Clear

Wind 16 to 22 MPH NE

The wind was strong, and got stronger during the day, which may have helped forwardly placed horses ( or it helped them by hindering closers ). This may have been the case the second half of the card. Tough call as the track seemed fair early.

Thursday, March 25

3 / 25 Track Trends

Muddy ( harrowed )

Cloudy

Wind 5 to 8 MPH NNE

The track played fairly

Sunday, March 21

Fast

Clear

Wind 5 to 8 MPH NW

The track played fairly.

Saturday, March 20

Fast

Clear

Wind 6 to 8 MPH NE

The track appeared to play fairly.

Friday, March 19

Fast

Clear

Wind 19 to 16 MPH SSW

While a number of races were dominated by horses off the inside, we also saw inside runners do fine. The track appeared to play fairly.

Sunday, March 14

Fast

Clear

Wind 14 to 21 MPH SE

The rail was an advantage, though perhaps not as strong as the prior day, but it's hard to be sure as the wind may have played a role as the day went on as the times slowed significantly during the afternoon.

Saturday, March 13

Fast

Clear

Wind 9 to 12 MPH NE

The rail was a significant advantage

Friday, March 12

Fast

Cloudy

Wind 9 to 14 MPH East

The rail was a significant advantage and the majority of successful runners spent most of the race on the inside.

Sunday, March 7

Fast

Clear

Wind 9 MPH SE

Speed did well, but the results were fairly logical throughout the day, and the track was most likely fair.

Saturday, March 6

Fast

Cloudy

Wind 15 MPH SE

The track played fairly. Speed was OK but no clear advantage.

Friday, March 5

Fast

Clear

Wind 18 MPH SE

Tricky track, as it wasn’t a strong bias towards the inside, but there are races that clearly suggest the rail was an advantage. There are also races that dispute this. Normally, this likely means the track was fair, and that is a possibility, but given recent weeks, it’s at least worth following going forward

Sunday, February 28

Sloppy ( sealed )

Showery

Wind 9 to 11 MPH NW

Speed appeared to be a decided edge despite closers doing well in the final two races. The rail was also good if not an advantage.

Saturday, February 27

Sloppy ( sealed )

Rainy

Wind 9 to 11 MPH NE to East

Speed was good, but it was possible to close, and the rail was also fine despite some riders staying a few paths off of it.

Friday, February 26

Fast

Clear

Wind 7 MPH N/NW

Being on the rail for the majority of the race was a near necessity to have any real success as the inside bias continued.

Thursday, February 25

Fast

Clear

Wind 12 to 10 MPH SE

The rail continues to be very strong, especially as the day wore on. While possible to close, for the most part you had to spend much of the race inside.

Sunday, February 21

Fast

Clear

Wind 9 to 5 MPH SE

The rail was a major advantage, perhaps as strong as the weekend of 2/13 thru 2/15

Saturday, February 20

Muddy ( harrowed )

Cloudy

Wind 15 MPH SE

There were races where the rail appeared to be advantageous, but there were also races where outside closers did well. Likely a fair chance where the rail was good, but not necessarily an advantage.

Friday, February 19

Muddy ( harrowed )

Snowing

Wind 11 to 9 MPH SW/S

While the rail was good, and possibly a slight advantage, overall the track played fairly. The conditions were not like the prior weekend.

Monday, February 15

Fast

Cloudy

Wind 8 MPH SW

The rail continues to be a significant advantage, as racing inside for at least a significant portion of the race was a big advantage.

Sunday, February 14

Fast

Cloudy

Wind 6 MPH SE

The rail was once again an extreme advantage, and in any competitive race, saving ground for at least a significant part of the race was close to a necessity to be at all successful. Strong bias.

Saturday, February 13

Fast

Cloudy

Wind 10 MPH SW

The rail was a distinct advantage, not just for front runners, and spending at least a significant part of the race inside was a virtual necessity for success. Looking at the speed figures for the day, it seems apparent that being inside exaggerated performances throughout the day.

Friday, February 12

Fast

Cloudy

Wind 9 MPH SE/S

The rail was good, but not a clear advantage, and while speed did well, it was likely more situational, and there were some reasonably effective closers. Overall, the track was likely fair.

Monday, February 8

Fast
Clear
27
Wind 4 to 6 MPH SE to NE

It seems pretty clear that the rail was a distinct advantage. We saw some effective outside runs, especially earlier in the day, but mostly horses on or near the lead, and inside, dominated, some logical and others not so much. It’s possible the track sped up as the day progressed and the bias could have intensified.

Saturday, February 6

Fast
Clear
43
Wind 16 to 12 MPH NE

There were times where it seemed like the best running was done off the rail, but enough horses ran well inside to suggest that the track was fair overall.

Friday, February 5

Good

Cloudy

Wind 8 to 5 MPH NE

There is a reasonable argument that the rail was an advantage for the first three races and the track may well have changed and become fair thereafter. Worth following going forward.

Thursday, February 4

Fast
Clear
39
Wind 13 to 9 MPH SE

Pretty much all the running was done well off the rail, as the riders consciously stayed off the rail, for the most part. Not clear the rail was dead but surely a distinct possibility.

Sunday, January 31

Fast
Cloud
27
Wind 5 to 8 MPH SW

The track seemed to strongly favor outside runners and there is a strong argument the rail was dead.

Saturday, January 30

Fast

Clear

Wind 10 to 12 MPH SE

Overall, the track was fair, with a mix of running styles successful.

Thursday, January 28

Fast
Clear
32
Wind 18 to 21 MPH SE

The Track appeared to play fairly. We saw horses effectively make runs, outside, from well back, but speed did well in some cases, as did inside runners.

Sunday, January 24
Fast
Clear
32
Wind 16 to 14 MPH SE

The track was fair.

Saturday, January 23

Fast
Clear
32
Wind 20 MPH SE

The track was on the slow side but the races appeared to play fairly with horses running effectively both inside and out.

Friday, January 22

Fast
Cloudy
45
Wind 17 to 15 MPH ESE

Overall, the track appeared to play fairly with multiple running styles effective.

Thursday, January 21

Fast
Clear
41
Wind 14 to 10 MPH NE

While some races made the track appear to favor an outside flow, others were dominated by speed and/or inside runners, making the track appear fair overall.

Monday, January 18

Fast
Clear
45
Wind 13 MPH E

Strange day in that some races it looked like an outside track and some an inside track. The only logical conclusion is that the track was fair with horses and race dynamics being the deciding factors.

Sunday, January 17

Fast
Clear
43
Wind 19 to 14 MPH E

The track appeared to play fairly, with speed doing fine and deep closers running effectively as well. The best running seemed to be done at least a path off the rail but there's little to no evidence the rail was dead.

Saturday, January 16

Muddy (sealed)
Parly Cloudy
46
Wind 11 to 14 MPH NE to E late

For the most part, forwardly placed horses did best, though not impossible to make up ground. Early it appeared the rail was bad, and perhaps being right inside was bad, but as the day wore on it’s not clear that was the case. A bit confusing and worth following.

Friday, January 15

Fast
Cloudy
46
Wind 13 to 16 MPH W

It was very hard to make up any significant ground, as speed and forwardly placed horses dominated and some seemed to overperform. The rail was good but not clearly an advantage.

Sunday, January 10

Fast
Clear
37
Wind 11 to 9 MPH SE

The track appeared to play fairly.

Saturday, January 9

Fast
Clear
37
Wind 15 MPH SSE

There is a valid argument the rail was an advantage, as a good deal of the best running was done inside, but how strong this was is debatable. It's at least worth keeping an eye on going forward.

Friday, January 8

Fast
Cloudy
40
Wind 9 MPH SE

The track was fair.

Thursday, January 7

Fast
Clear
41
Wind 14 to 12 MPH SE

The track was fair.

Sunday, January 3

Muddy (sealed)
Showery
39
Wind 8 MPH SSE

While the track seemed similar to the prior day, with the best running being a bit off the inside, enough horses ran OK along the rail to question how bad the it was inside.

Saturday, January 2

Muddy (sealed)
Clear
52
Wind 14 MPH SW

The best running was done at least a couple paths off the inside. There is a reasonable argument that the rail was bad. The races featured a fair mix of successful speed and closers.

Friday, January 1

Muddy (harrowed)
Cloudy
39
Wind 6 MPH WSW

There is some evidence that speed was a big advantage today. However, given the resulting speed figures, it doesn't appear that horses overperformed on the front end. There were also a couple of races where horses made significant runs from well back to finish second. However, overall, we did not see many effective runs from behind, so perhaps it was more difficult to close than speed horses having their performances enhanced. Interesting day worth thinking about when horses run back.

Download previous years' track trends below:

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