TimeformUS Race Analysis
David Aragona posts his picks & plays each live race day.
Wednesday, November 12
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
My primary opinion on this race is that I'll let She's a Gemma (#6) beat me off the layoff. This filly figures to take money based on that 81 Beyer debut at Tampa where she broke slowly and closed for second. The winner of that race has turned out to be decent, but I still think that effort was overrated at the time. I'm also concerned about her lack of early speed. A few of these exit that Oct. 3 race at the level won by Filly Freedom. There was a significant rail bias on Oct. 3 that worked against horses like Metfardeh (#7) and Stone Cold Kelly (#1). The former ran a race that could win here on debut at Saratoga, and I won't get too concerned about her regression last time given the wide trip. Stone Cold Kelly is an intriguing longshot to consider based on the last race, but I wish her prior form was a bit stronger. I defaulted to Chad Brown and Flavien Prat with High Note (#2), who probably won't be much of a price. I just thought she ran well last time against a quality rival at Monmouth, chasing outside on a day when the rail actually seemed to be a slight advantage. She broke sharply in that race and I would expect Flavien to put her in the mix right from the start in what looks like a paceless race.
RACE 2
Kyle's Mom (#2) offers some appeal as the lightly raced option from a different direction, as 5 of her 6 rivals exit the same Oct. 16 race at this level. The only horse I would want from that spot is Toxic Girl (#7), who was parked very wide throughout and may benefit from the rider switch to Sahin Civaci. They're the two logical horses for me, but I do want to throw in Bourbon N Lace (#3), the other new face to this group who figures to get somewhat overlooked. Michael Gorham has actually shipped some live runners to NYRA this year, and this filly looks like she's been prepping for this stretch-out on dirt. She obviously needed that turf return, and then was running on too late over a sprint distance last time. She was in for the waiver on both occasions, suggesting that she's probably well-meant as she moves up to this level third off the layoff.
RACE 3
I know Linda Rice has solid statistics with dropdowns off the claim like Proud Foot (#3). I still think it's strange that she's running for $20k when a horse like this could seemingly be useful for Linda with winter approaching. Her form had been subtly but steadily declining this summer, and I'm skeptical that she'll turn it around. I want the two Ilkay Kantarmaci trainees, who should control this race up front. Majestic Return (#6) is the fastest early, and was compromised first off the claim for this barn when she broke a step slowly from the rail. It was still a step in the right direction for her, and she's a gate-to-wire threat here. I have the slight nod to barnmate Edistrudis (#7), who returns off the claim for this barn and interestingly moves up in class. Per Formulator, Kantarmaci is 5 for 24 (21%, $3.48 ROI) first off the claim with horses moving up in tag by 50% or more over the last year. She has back class, and I like her shortening up to 6 furlongs.
RACE 4
Gotta Guy (#4) is moving up in class after getting claimed for $17,500. This Parx-based trainer is 10 for 37 (27%, $5.30 ROI) first off the claim and campaigned Lonesome Boy, who won shipping to this circuit a couple seasons ago. He's dangerous, but is another lacking early speed. Main rival Cocktailsnkringle (#8) seems fairly logical after just missing at this level last time. That Oct. 10 affair may be a much stronger race than it looks, as Neon Bordeaux and Derek's Law both came back to improve significantly next time out. That makes me upgrade Cocktailsnkringle, but also highlights Magni (#2) as a contender. Watching back that Oct. 10 race, Magni lacked a clear path in upper stretch and lost some momentum waiting for room behind the leaders. He handled the switch back to dirt, confirming the notion that he has just improved in the second half of this season. He picks up Dylan Davis and can outrun his odds here.
RACE 5
I would be thrilled if Orie (#11) drew into this race off the AE list, because he would surely take money with Flavien Prat getting up. He goes out for a dangerous barn, but I still can't get this horse after he's disappointed so many times. The deserving favorite is Sammy C Note (#2), who significantly improved on turf last time. He was wide throughout and kept running on despite never changing leads in a race that was above par for the level. He drew better inside this time, and will be tough to beat with a similar effort. Fric and Frac (#9) is an intriguing new face getting on turf since he has plenty of dam's side pedigree for it. He didn't run that well on debut, but may appreciate the surface switch for a capable barn. My top pick is Tomschickenfingers (#8), another son of Leofric with plenty of turf pedigree on the bottom of his pedigree. Some may dismiss him based on his lone turf effort, but he ran a lot better than it looks that day. He was coming off a layoff, and he still hadn't figured out how to break from the gate at that time, getting away slowly and getting steadied at the back of the pack before going wide on the turn. He's much better than that now, and I think he deserves another chance on grass.
RACE 6
I didn't have a particularly clever take on this race and thought the logical options were the right ones. Salt Princess (#10) was probably best when just missing in a headbob last time. She was wide throughout from a difficult post position and had to make the first move without cover. I like both of her turf races, and think she's due to break through here switching back to John Velazquez. River Empress (#5) didn't run quite as well as that one last time, but may be improving with experience. The stretching out Honor the Numbers (#1) has pedigree to go longer, but I wanted her to show a bit more finishing ability last time when didn't get the same pace setup she received on debut.
RACE 7
Aggregation (#6) has typically been a popular horse with the bettors, and it won't be any surprise if they make him favored here, especially with Flavien Prat taking over the mount. The problem is that he hasn't yet won since returning from an extended layoff this summer despite looking like a contender each time. There is also other speed entered in here to keep him company up front. There are a few interesting dropdowns to consider as alternatives. One of those is Shadow Dragon (#8), who has been steadily moving up the class ladder since last winter. He had been a horse that struggled to win last year, so it was nice to see him put together a couple of victories earlier this season. Since returning in the summer, he's just been overmatched against tougher foes and is now dropping back down to the right level to compete for a tag. My top pick is Cut the Cord (#5), the horse who ran down Aggregation when that one ran so well off the layoff back in August at Saratoga. He was mildly disappointing first off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci next time, but he caught a tougher field stepping up into open company. He also didn't get the smoothest trip, sent early before getting reined in, and then jammed to the rail through the rest of the race. He also was more dominant in victory at Finger Lakes last time than the final margin would suggest, after he had to pause and lose momentum in traffic at the quarter pole. I like him cutting back to a mile in a race with pace, and Manny Franco should be a good fit for this relentless grinder.
RACE 8
Devil in Disguise (#10) and Let It Ride (#6) have faced off against each other in each of their last two starts on Oct. 9 and Oct. 18, trading decisions. The Rudy Rodriguez runner had little excuse when getting a good trip two back, but then turned the tables on his rival last time when getting a more aggressive ride from Ricardo Santana. He may not be able to make the lead here with Irrelevant (#3) in the race, but he does appear to be back in top form after showing promise early on in his career. I gave slight preference to Let It Ride at a better price since he got stuck wide in that Oct. 18 affair. He's drawn better this time, but it is a concern that he hasn't won a race in over 2 years.
RACE 9
Gilbane (#2) is seemingly moving way up in class after facing $25k claimers on debut at the Meadowlands, but that race actually got a decent speed figure. He got a great trip, saving ground on both turns before running out of real estate late. He can obviously run a little, but isn't the most exciting option. Main rival Fazzone (#5) offers a bit more appeal after chasing home some tougher rivals on debut. He was fairly one-paced, but he did finish with interest and should appreciate the drop in class. First time starter Narnia (#9) has plenty of pedigree to be a turf router, and Tom Morley has spotted this $75k yearling purchase realistically for his debut. If I bet anyone in here, it's likely to be Lexington Pike (#10), who has been meant for turf and rained off in both prior starts. He doesn't have an abundance of turf pedigree, but Lexitonian has produced a couple of turf winners and this colt has the high-stepping action of a turf horse. He showed improved tactical speed last time and I expect him to sustain it better here.
Thursday, November 13
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
Neither favorite in this conditioned claimer does much for me, though both can obviously win. Leading Role (#1) caught a tougher field at the $30k level last time, though I didn't exactly love his maiden victory and he figures to get early pressure from Cool Hand Rich. Dark Vector (#2) is a little more appealing, launching a 5-wide premature move around the far turn last time before the race collapsed late. It's just hard to look past his 1 for 15 lifetime record with 6 seconds. I'll try to beat this pair with Wajda (#6), who returns from a lengthy layoff for Linda Rice. He obviously ran poorly when last seen, but he was off for a long time after that. He ran well to break his maiden on Feb. 15 when he was one of the only horses to overcome an inside trip against a dead rail. I find it interesting that James Riccio has been added to the ownership since his last race, and that Linda Rice makes a rare move to protect him with the waiver off this layoff.
RACE 2
Systemic Change (#3) obviously comes in with the strongest form, and he isn't catching a particularly tough field for the $32k level. He couldn't make up ground into a slow pace last time, but he may not get a much better setup here without any true speed signed on. That's what led me to pick Suerte (#6), who puts blinkers back on and looks to control this race on the front end. It's hard to have much confidence in him based on his recent form. Yet for some reason, Gustavo Rodriguez is moving him up in class off those disappointing results, and counterintuitive moves like this from sharp barns are often good signs. I also gave a look to runners with back class like Cicciobello (#5) and Tabeguache (#7), but they go out for connections that are tough to endorse.
RACE 3
It's hard to have a strong opinion about anyone in this wide open maiden claimer. Snare (#3) obviously sports the strongest form, but it's tough to take these connections at a short price, even for someone like me who loves to pick Ribaudo's runners! I considered How About It (#6), who did run a vastly improved dirt race last time and has more of a turf profile over all. I just wonder if he's truly a turf sprinter or if he'd prefer to run a bit farther than this. Joker On Fire (#4) interests me a bit getting on grass for the first time. He doesn't have a ton of pedigree for it, but his dam did win on turf and some progeny of Practical Joke can handle it. He's got a stride that should lend itself to grass, and notably ran his best dirt race on a sloppy, sealed track. Bruce Levine can win with these types. My top pick is Nod to Tran (#9), who also returns from a layoff. I know his turf speed figures aren't the fastest in this field, but those were all 2-year-old numbers. He was third behind stakes winner Tiz Dashing in his second start, and then was pretty competitive with the stakes-placed Flat to Da Mat in his most recent turf start a year ago. He didn't handle dirt at all last winter, but he's returning to grass at the right level if he's ready off the bench. A live rider like Ricardo Santana riding for these low-profile connections is probably a good sign.
RACE 4
I suppose Peek (#7) and O P Firecracker (#3) are the two most likely winners of this race after completing the exacta in a similar spot back in September. I'm just not thrilled with either option, and Peek is a horse you wanted to have last time at 6-1. I'll instead get a little more creative with Run Happy Pappy (#6), whose looks a little cheap on paper. His only competitive speed figure was earned in that 7-length score against $8k claimers at Monmouth, and some may just dismiss that as a fluke. However, he did not get particularly good rides in his prior starts, and he's still relatively unexposed as a dirt router because of that. He may just be a horse who has finally found his niche late in his 5-year-old season, and it’s not as if he's catching the toughest claiming event as he comes to the NYRA circuit. He also figures to be forward in a paceless race.
RACE 5
Silly Season (#5) figures to attract support based on her excellent turf pedigree and top connections, but this isn't a barn that has great statistics with horses debuting in turf routes. I prefer to watch one before backing her at a short price. Cara's Dreamchaser (#10) is more appealing given her positive turf experience. I'm not exactly sure why she was retroactively disqualified in her first three starts, but even her Miss Grillo effort last time would make her tough against this field. Livin the Breeze (#12) is another with decent turf form, and she ran better than it looks despite disappointing as the favorite last time. She was off a step slowly, didn't settle well, and went wide on both turns. The only problem is that she drew a difficult post once again. I'm more interested in Raynam Hall (#9), who goes out for newly successful turf trainer Rudy Rodriguez. She's had more experience than the rest, but has only tried a turf route once time, and it was her best effort. She advanced 3-wide without cover from post 12, and made the first move into an honest pace to break the race open before getting overhauled late. If she can produce a similar effort while saving more ground, she can beat this field at what figures to be a square price.
RACE 6
I didn't want to just concede this race to the Wathnan import Space Legend (#3), who obviously towers over this field from a class perspective. He's faced the likes of Group 1 winners Rebel's Romance, Calandagan, and Los Angeles overseas. However, his two starts earlier this year were disappointing, and I'm not convinced that turning back to 1 3/16 miles over an American course is going to suit him. Watching his races in Europe, he's fairly one-paced without much speed, and I don’t trust him as the favorite. Dirand (#5) is a better option coming off his dominant maiden victory last time. Outside of vulnerable favorite Space Legend, this isn't exactly the strongest N1X field, so I'm not too concerned about the rise in class. Yet I have even more interest in the other Chad Brown runner Interceptor (#8). I've wondered if Chad Brown might ever give this horse a chance on turf since early in his career, since he has more of a turf look to him and actually has some subtle pedigree for it. Chad gave him one turf work at Saratoga in early October, and now gives him a chance on it, which I take as a good sign. Chad is also one of the few trainers who does well with this move, going 8 for 34 (24%, $2.64 ROI) with 3YO+ non-maiden routers making their first ever turf starts. I'll use both Brown runners against this favorite.
RACE 7
I don't have much to say about this one. Senza Parole (#7) may finally get back to the winner's circle, but I haven't been thrilled with either of her 3-year-old starts, and didn't want to take another short price on her. Grammy Girl (#10) has consistently run well over this track and appears to be back in top form right now for Saffie Joseph. She gets the slight nod.
RACE 8
The decision to switch the Key Cents to turf for this season has breathed new life into this New York-bred stakes. George Weaver holds a strong hand, sending out one-third of the field. Among that trio, I prefer Boomington (#4) slightly, but I wasn't thrilled with any of the Weaver-trained options at short prices, and wanted to look beyond them. Cosmic Candy Girl (#7) seems pretty logical. She just got nailed by Boomington on the wire of her first turf start in August, but she might have run the best race that day. She delivered in her next start, sitting on top of a moderate pace before pouncing and holding off the closers. The slight cutback to a mile should suit her. Another recent maiden winner Neshika (#2) merits a look after overcoming some trouble to win last time. She looks like a tricky filly to ride, as she doesn't settle well in her races, and that was the case last time when she was attempting to run up on heels approaching the quarter pole. Joel Rosario maneuvered her masterfully, but he's off his mounts this week. My top pick is Considerate City (#3), who comes off a couple of losses against maidens. However, she has since received that maiden diploma through a NY Gaming Commission decision that disqualified the winner of her debut and retroactively awarded her the victory. Regardless of that unusual situation, I do think she's run better than it looks in her last couple of starts. She did well to advance through the pack from a wide post second time out when chasing home Cosmic Candy Girl. Then last time the connections took the blinkers off and she didn't seem quite as focused. She failed to get position early and was shuffled back to last at the quarter pole before running on belatedly. She's better than that, and gets the blinkers back here. She drew well and picks up Dylan Davis, who likes to save ground.
RACE 9
If Disclaimer (#6) could actually get out of the gate, he'd be easy to back against this field. He's shown the most talent of anyone in this race, arguably producing his best effort last time when coming within 1 1/2 lengths of the winner despite compeltely botching the start. He's now broken poorly twice in a row and I'm concerned it's becoming a habit. He showed in his return from the layoff that he can be more forward when he breaks better. I'm using him, but I can't totally rely on him. A Bourbon for Toby (#3) is another horse with talent who has been compromised by trips on a few occasions. I'm starting to get tired of his antics now as an 0 for 10 maiden, but he does have winning ability within him if he can ever put it all together. I'm similarly cautious of Operation Overlord (#5), who has run in spots in both prior starts. There's more to this colt than his results suggest, but he just doesn't seem to mentally have it all together yet. I'll try to beat these familiar faces with Tiz Freedom (#8), who returns from a 13-month layoff. I've been waiting for this horse to run back for a long time, ever since he ran the best race in defeat in his turf debut as a 2-year-old. He got a crazy trip that day, used to get forward from a wide draw, then losing position before making a premature backstretch move to challenge the leaders again. He did all of that while racing wide throughout, and still stayed on for second. This horse has ability, and should be able to rise to this level if he's matured during the time away. It is interesting that Junior Alvardo lands on this horse rather than the Mott runner with more recency.
