TimeformUS Race Analysis
David Aragona posts his picks & plays each live race day.
Saturday, April 11
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
Castle Chaos (#5) is taking a pretty significant class drop, having competed against vastly superior rivals in all of his races going back over the last few seasons. He's just no longer the same horse who was second in the 2024 Carter, and this level is probably where he belongs these days. Good Lord (#1) is the most consistent of the main players, and has proven that he fits at the level. Yet he is getting claimed away from a series of pretty sharp trainers. Asleep at Eight (#2) probably plays out as the main speed and has run well at this level, but even that recent form puts him a cut below the top two picks.
RACE 2
It might seem like Enduring Spirit (#6) has lost his form for new connections, but he's had his fair share of excuses lately. He got hung extremely wide on Jan. 18, then lost all chance when stumbling badly at the start two back. He got back on track last time with a better effort, and now gets some class relief as he drops back into the conditioned claiming ranks. The outside post should help him work out a trip. Camm' Duke (#3) is the controlling speed, but that's been the case in many prior races and he still struggles to seal the deal. The slight cutback to 6 furlongs should help, but he's a little hard to trust on the win end. Focusyn (#5) would be tough if able to get back to his 2025 form, but he was pretty bad as the favorite last time and this subsequent drop doesn't inspire confidence.
RACE 3
It's hard to strongly endorse anyone in a race that came up quite weak even for this lower level; at least some excuses can be made for the recent poor results by Tapwrits Temper (#5). He was extremely wide last time over a sloppy track he may not have loved, and prior to that was facing slightly tougher down at Oaklawn. His NYRA form from late last year would beat this field, and now he returns as a new gelding picking up Edgard Zayas. Magni (#2) is obviously the horse to beat based on recent form, but he got decent setups in each of his last two starts, and is unlikely to get much pace assistance here. Majestic Arc (#4) is a threat to wire the field if they're aggressive early. A few of his recent efforts aren't so bad, but it's been a long time since he's won a race.
RACE 4
There's a shortage of trustworthy form everywhere you look in this maiden claiming field; I'm copping out by giving preference to the most proven option, Restless Renegade (#6). He exits a decent third at this level in a race that he probably needed off the layoff. He didn't take that much money considering the field and was ridden conservatively. I'm expecting to see Manny Franco be more aggressive here, and that should put him in position to control this up front. Crowbar Artist (#3) is the epitome of a plodder. He has no early speed and just saunters along at one pace. Yet that style could pick up some pieces in a race where so few can be trusted to finish. Chess Match (#1) is the obvious dropdown to take, but he really didn't do that much running on debut and his subsequent workouts hardly inspire confidence. I thought he could be overbet on the assumption of upside that may not exist.
RACE 5
It can be hard to read trainer Rick Dutrow's intentions around the claiming waiver, but it does seem like he occasionally uses it with horses who need starts off layoffs. I'm hoping that's the case with Graywing (#5), who showed speed and stopped twice using the waiver this winter. Now he's finally in for a tag third off the bench, suggesting this might be a target race. He draws better outside so he won't have to be as aggressively used early, and that's important for a horse who can be fainthearted in the stretch. He also picks up Manny Franco, who rides most of the live horses for Rick. Nabokov (#1) beat the top pick last time, but that was the day to have him when he was live getting bet down to 9-1 off dismal form. I'm skeptical he can reproduce that effort. Timaeus (#3) exits the best last-out effort, but he was beating a terrible field at the $10k level, and benefited from getting loose up front. That's unlikely to happen here.
RACE 6
For a compact field, there is a fair amount of pace in here. That may benefit Sunday Boy (#1), who returns from a layoff after breaking his maiden in that lucrative stallion stakes to conclude his 2-year-old campaign. He really came to hand on dirt late last year, and some runbacks suggest that stakes victory is better than the speed figure it was assigned. He may be underrated for this comeback. I just don't fully trust either Sculco's Folly (#5) or Illmatic (#4), who both exit runaway victories with flashy speed figures. Sculcos Folly has benefited from two very favorable pace setups in a row, whereas Illmatic may have been cranked up for his best shipping up from Florida. I have doubts either one will reproduce those recent efforts here, and their similar running styles make it inevitable that they'll hook up at some point early in this race. Plus the two biggest prices drawn inside of them also possess early speed.
RACE 7
Hot Currency (#5) is obviously the one to beat in this Fourstar Crook Stakes. She owns the best string of TimeformUS Speed Figures in the field, cycling up to a standout 102 in her last race. She arguably should have won that day when stuck down on a dead rail. However, now she's been off for three months and may be catching a deceptively tough rival in her return. That primary foe Greek Goddess (#3) ran better than even her solid 88 TimeformUS Speed Figure can convey in her debut race. She was off a step slowly, had to make an early move into contention, and then forged clear in the stretch, all despite racing outside against a rail bias. That inside tilt to the track was especially pronounced on Feb. 6 when she competed. This filly is one of very few to beat the bias that weekend, and she did so emphatically. She's going to be tough to beat if she steps forward on a fair track. Two of the main speeds scratching helps Miss Jane Hathaway (#1), who displayed good speed on debut when beating some older rivals. However, the waters do get much deeper here.
RACE 8
I couldn’t get creative enough to look past dropdown Chocolatechocolate (#3). Her form has been tailing off lately, but Linda Rice is probably putting her in a spot where she can win. Linda never really got improvement out of this $20k claim and she's finally ready to let someone else take her. I wouldn't be too hard on her for the last effort since she might not like a sloppy, sealed track. Eleni (#5) was wide against a rail bias on Feb. 14 and ran slightly better last time. She's not impossible if she takes another small step forward. Itwillbefun (#8) is the trip horse from that race, since she made a bit late run after blowing the start. However, I'm not sure she's a trip horse you necessarily want to bet bet back, since this filly has gate issues almost every time and can be a nightmare to ride.
Sunday, April 12
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
Print (#5) finished ahead of likely favorite Pauillac (#1) when they met on Feb. 21. While the Chad Brown runner probably has a bit more upside, Print put in a pretty game effort, fending off a challenge in upper stretch before getting nailed on the wire by a well-meant winner. Perhaps the muddy track moved him up, but that performance fits in line with his steady improvement until this point. I'm giving him the slight nod over Pauillac, who should attain forward position from the rail with blinkers going on. He stayed on well first time out, but and Chad has great stats with second time starters. Copious (#3) makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice, but she doesn't have great stats doing this with maidens and he's tailed off in recent starts.
RACE 2
Tarpaulin (#2) won despite lugging in through the stretch last time, with Jose Lezcano barely able to ride him. That was just a $12,500 N3L claimer but it was actually a decent field for the level given the presence of dropdown Derek's Law. This colt is stepping back up in class, but the race came up pretty weak for the condition. You also generally want to respect Linda Rice with an aggressive placement of this kind. Fric and Frac (#6) got involved in an early duel with some pretty fast horses at this level last time. He paid the price late but still earned a respectable speed figure, and should play out as the main speed this time. Three Little Birds (#4) beat just 3 rivals in a blanket finish in his first start on the circuit last time, but he has prior form down south that makes him competitive here.
RACE 3
Natural Hunk (#4) finally put it all together last time beating a couple of win-shy Linda Rice trainees. He had also run better than it looks two back when wide against a rail bias. I respect the steady improvement, and he should continue his progression as he switches into the barn of an underrated trainer. Thorsness (#6) looks like the main speed in a paceless affair. He showed grit to come back for the victory after getting passed at the quarter pole despite contesting an honest early pace. While that was a maiden race, the field wasn't really that much weaker than this spot. I don't mind the trainer switch to Jeremiah Englehart. Grand Commander (#2) has some form from earlier in the winter that would beat this group, but he's tailed off lately.
RACE 4
Purple Divine (#4) is obviously the one to beat after twice running well against tougher fields since the claim by Ilkay Kantarmaci. She had performed better than it appears when she just barely lost to a couple of today's rivals on Feb. 27, making the first move into a fast pace before drifting down to a dead rail late. I have no major knocks against her other than the likely short price. Probable Angle (#5) and Cravings (#7) defeated that foe in late February, but both got better trips from off the pace. Between the two, I slightly prefer Cravings who has come to hand lately and is picked up by a pretty sharp barn. However, it isn't easy to improve a horse claimed away from Brad Cox. I don't see a ton of true speed in this race, and I would expect both Linda Rice trainees to go forward early. The TimeformUS Pace Projector shows them both leading in a scenario favoring frontrunners. Ohoopee (#2) is the one that I want to bet, especially now that she's drawn outside her stablemate. That may be key, as this filly got stuck on the rail inside of Baseball Lady last time and got rated off the pace. She clearly resented that ride, pulling at the restraint through the first quarter mile. She had gotten cooked in a pretty quick pace over a tiring track two back and her prior form makes her competitive here.
RACE 5
I'm not really sure why the connections kept trying to make Houdini's Bride (#2) get a route distance, but she seems like more of a sprinter. Her only recent sprint came off a long layoff, and she probably needed that effort. She should have gotten even more fitness out of the last race where she contested a fast pace before fading. Now she catches an extremely weak group, and should be able to beat her two main rivals if she can still run at all. I had some interest in Ishkabibble (#6) last time when after she had gotten a couple of wide trips in her prior starts. She did deliver the best effort of her career, but was tough to handle while trying to lug in, costing herself second. I like the rider upgrade to Dylan Davis, but she won't be any kind of price this time. My Devine One (#7) has prior races that make her competitive here, and she was in over her head off the claim last time.
RACE 6
Mezcalifornia (#5) got hung pretty wide when meeting some common rivals in that tough Mar. 28 starter race. She ran pretty well for the new connections considering the substantial class hike. There appears to be some pace in here to set up her late run and the price should be fair. Proud Foot (#3) was ready to fire off a layoff when she ran here 10 days ago, and beat a decent group for this level. The waters get a bit deeper here, but it's probably a good sign that Rick Dutrow is striking again while the iron is hot. Despo's Dream (#7) finished third in that same Mar. 28 race that the top pick exits. She has plenty of prior form that would beat this field, but I was hoping to see her show a little more on the drop last time.
RACE 7
Naive Melody (#3) will beat this field if she returns in the same form we saw out of her last April. She defeated a decent field of males that day with a strong speed figure. You generally don't worry about layoffs too much with Wesley Ward runners and she's run well fresh before. I like the outside draw for Howling Wind (#7), who paid the price for dueling with the eventual winner at this level last time. That rival came back to beat tougher with a 90 Beyer in her next start. This filly has otherwise turned the corner as a 4-year-old and Reylu Gutierrez should have an opportunity to perch her just outside of the other speed early. City Blocks (#2) has a chance to rebound here after a series of misfortunes in her recent starts, getting less than ideal trips or having trouble at the start. Her form from last summer would beat this group.
RACE 8
It's hard to fully trust a horse like Clancy Fancy (#8), but it's pretty easy to make an excuse for his last race given the wet, sealed track, the kind of surface he's never handled particularly well. He was also racing down inside, which probably wasn't the place to be. He had been keeping much tougher company prior to that, and deserves another chance at this level, especially now that he's been picked up by a sharp claiming outfit. . I'm intrigued by the turnback for Awesome Empire (#4), who had some success sprinting early in his career. I didn't love the ride he got last time when he was restrained and lost position early. He now comes back getting class relief on relatively short rest. Miles Ahead (#3) is the focal point of this race as a millionaire former stakes winner dropping in for $30k off the layoff. There are red flags all over, but he could obviously beat this field if he's any semblance of his former self.
