TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

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RACE 1

Chad Brown is likely to win this race with one of his two entrants. Schoolyardsuperman (#4) drops out of the Withers, in which he was perhaps overmatched but also stretched beyond the limitations of his stamina. It’s not as if he was against the rail bias, as he spent most of the race on the inside. He should appreciate turning back to a mile, but I do think his victory two back was aided by a slow pace. I slightly prefer Hedge Ratio (#5), even though I'm not sure he'll be a much better price with Flavien Prat riding. He lost all chance at the start last time when he was slow getting into stride and forced to race wide against the rail bias. The outside post should help this time, and I expect Prat to have him more involved early.

RACE 2

We're down to a 3-horse field, which makes this race unappealing from a wagering standpoint. Military Road (#3) is an trustworthy favorite given the way his form has fallen apart recently. He's dropping in class, but I still question his competitive spirit. First Trumpet (#5) makes his first start off the claim for Rob Atras, but I'm skeptical how much a horse can improve off a low-profile barn that actually did fairly well with him. I would rather go with Kismeholdmethrlme (#1), who should be the best price of the trio and gets needed class relief. While the pace of his last race might not look that fast, it did take its toll on the leaders and this horse was chasing wide early. He fits well at this level and is arguably better stretching out to 9 furlongs.

RACE 3

Darty Time (#6) will probably beat this field if she runs back to her best form from last summer. She did run her top dirt race in her only start over a dry track, so perhaps it's as simple as her getting back on that kind of surface. However, now he's been off for a while and Rudy Rodriguez doesn't have the best statistics off layoffs. There's other pace in here to push her up front, so I didn't want to take a short price on her. The most reliable option might be Lady Delilah (#2). While she is 0 for 18, she hasn't had that many chances racing for a claiming tag on dirt. She's fairly logical, but I wanted a runner with a bit more upside. I'll try Tapit Back (#4) in her return from a layoff. She obviously has to do better to beat a field like this, but she's supposed to be capable of a faster performance as she makes her first start in about 6 months as a new 3-year-old. She looked like a filly with some size to her in last year's replay, and she appears to have worked well for her return.

RACE 4

I don't fully trust Meg's Foxy Grey (#5), who got very good off the claim for Michelle Nevin but was pretty disappointing when she returned from a brief layoff last time. She did break a step slowly, but she's rated effectively before and just couldn't produce a finish as the race fell apart late. She may rebound here, especially without much other speed signed on, but I preferred the Linda Rice pair. Vino Frizzante (#1) has been in great form since getting claimed and has steadily risen in class. She's obviously a threat, but I have a bit more trust in Helen's Revenge (#6). She has to get a little faster to beat this group, but she's posted perfectly outside of the main speed so she should get her preferred stalking trip. She didn't have to love the mud last time, and she also got an unfortunate trip. Pushed inward and back at the start, she made a premature wide move before flattening out. Things should work out better here.

RACE 5

There appears to be some talent in this maiden special weight, given the presence of a few 3-year-olds shipping up from Florida. All three of the experienced runners appear to possess some ability, but I would give preference to the lone Florida shipper among them. Grunge (#2) returns to New York for Miguel Clement after training well down at Payson through the winter. He perhaps wasn't catching the toughest maiden field when he debuted at Saratoga last summer, but he ran reasonably well and can build on that performance in his 3-year-old return. Pretty Boy Miah (#7) regressed in his second start after an encouraging debut, but he didn't get an ideal trip, breaking poorly and angling wide off the gold rail. He can do better here. Yet there are five first time starters in the mix, and one of them appears to possess the talent to beat his experienced foes. Silver Talent (#1) is by excellent debut sire Constitution out of multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter Paulassilverlining, making him a half-brother to stakes winner Artorius. The pedigree is certainly there to suggest he's a runner, and he looked like one in the lone workout video I could find. He's a thick, powerfully built colt who dominated a workmate in that Mar. 7 gate drill. The rail draw isn't ideal, but I trust Flavien Prat to work out a trip.

RACE 6

I suppose B Provocateur (#1) is helped by the scratch of main pace rival Lord King. He chased wide against a rial bias on Feb. 11 in his first dirt start after a couple of turf races as a 2-year-old. While it might not appear that he improved last time, he was stepping up in class to face a tougher field than this one. He found himself battling for the lead inside and was game to hold on until the eighth pole before fading. I like him cutting back to 6 furlongs and I don't have enough information about the firsters to want them over him. The two debut runners that interest me would be Bakuto (#6) andTerm Premium (#5). The former figures to be the better price going out for Horacio De Paz. He's by versatile sire Goldencents out of a dam who produced a couple of decent winners. Ricardo Santana gets live mounts for this barn.

RACE 7

The Top Flight, one of two stakes features on Sunday at Aqueduct, features a rematch of the trifecta finishers from last months Ladies at this same distance. That race's winner Scalable (#6) is the horse to beat as she was undoubtedly best last time. The rail path was a significant advantage on Feb. 6, and she was the only one among the top three finishers who spent part of her trip racing outside. She made a wide far turn run to challenge the leaders before drawing off. I prefer her to the two she beat last time. That was the day for Bernietakescharge (#1) to win against this group since she had the advantage of setting the pace on the golden rail. She outdueled the favorite but couldn't see off the late challenge of Scalable. She drew well inside again here, but could face other early challenges. Snowyte (#5) should be pressing that fellow speed early after she ran so well getting an aggressive ride off the layoff at Gulfstream. She led through to win drawing off by over 11 lengths, earning a career-best 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure. A repeat of that number puts her right in line with the horses exiting the Ladies. I have to bet Ourdaydreaminggirl (#2) at a slightly bigger price. I expect this 4-year-old filly to appreciate stretching back out to 9 furlongs. She hasn't yet won around two turns, but she's run well in all of her dirt route attempts against some tough competition. She nearly upset the Grade 1 Cotillion last year at odds of 42-1, and she had an excuse when not getting an ideal trip in the Mother Goose after that. She then rebounded with a solid effort closing into a slow pace in the Comely. Even her last effort going shorter is better than it looks since she was chasing wide against that same Feb. 6 rail bias in the Interborough.

RACE 8

I'm not trying to beat Donegal Surges (#1) in this Haynesfield, especially after the scratch of his main rival National Identity. This horse beat a strong field last time using unexpected tactics, as Manny Franco hustled him to the front end, setting honest fractions and pulling away. Things tightened up a bit approaching the wire, but he had forced the race to fall apart behind him. The runbacks have been strong with both Dreamlike and Whittington Park returning to validate the form on Friday. Donegal Surges doesn't need to be ridden that way, and he can sit just off the pace here with other speed outside of him. Others I would consider underneath are Quick to Accuse (#4) and General Banker (#8). The former disappointed at Laurel last time, but had previously run well chasing outside against the track bias on Feb. 14. General Banker was also slightly off the rail against the bias in that same race and encountered some traffic trouble at the quarter pole. He's a bit unreliable but the Jimmy Ferraro barn has been on a strong run lately.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

Irresistible (#1) comes into the race with the strongest overall dirt form, having hit the board at this level three times. While her last race was her strongest yet on paper, the visual left me a little disappointed. She had every chance to win that race, and faded while drifting out through the lane. Perhaps she needed the race off a slight layoff, but I want others. Point of Reference (#4) appears to have more room for improvement in her second career start. She broke poorly last time after standing awkwardly in the gate. From there, she raced a bit erratically but finished well. Chad Brown is an excellent 34 for 103 (33%, $2.32 ROI) with 3YO maiden second time starters in dirt routes over 5 years. There are a couple of first time starters in the mix, one of which is trained by Brown. I prefer the Miguel Clement-trained Moonlit (#5), who also ships up from Florida. This Daredevil filly is out of a dam who was a Grade 3 winner going 1 1/8 miles on dirt, so she's bred to go this distance. Clement has also been on fire with his newcomers lately, going 10 for 25 (40%, $3.10 ROI) with firsters over the last 6 months. I watched a couple of her workouts at Payson. They're slow, steady drills but she travels well within herself and she won that Mar. 7 gate work despite her exercise rider losing the irons at the start and never getting them back.

RACE 2

I wasn't sure what to expect from Brigadier General (#5) when he returned from a near 2-year layoff last month, and the betting public was pretty lukewarm towards him as well, dismissing him at 15-1. While he only split the field in fifth, his performance was better than that result might suggest. The favorite Donegal Surges went forward to set an honest pace, basically running his competition into the ground. Brigadier General was one of the few sent to pursue him and he actually did well to hold second into the final furlong before fading as the race collapsed behind the winner. He should have gotten plenty of fitness out of that effort, and I like that there's no significant drop in class for second start back. He has form prior to the layoff that would crush this field. I prefer him to main rival Crushed It (#2), who is dropping a bit after facing some tough rivals at the $100k level last time. Getting back on a fast track should suit him, but he may not get his preferred forward trip here. Perhaps Three Technique (#4) can pick up some pieces as he stretches back out to his preferred one mile distance. He's been disappointing recently, but he was in the wrong spots several times in a row.

RACE 3

This becomes a completely different race with half of the field scratching. There's far less speed signed on now, and I don't fully trust likely favorite Carvellian Quest (#4) to hold his form well enough to win at this distance. He was pretty disappointing when losing last time, and was also strangely dead on the board for that race. Spirit Dragon (#7) is the main pace rival drawn right outside and I slightly prefer him. He was uncomfortably drawn inside of other speeds last time and could never get into his preferred running position after breaking a step slowly. He can rebound second off the claim for Antonio Arriaga. 

RACE 4

I have trouble trusting Sweet Laura (#4) to run back to her last race at Colonial. It was contested through heavy fog, and the speed figures assigned to it seem high for each of the top two finishers. It's not like she's some standout here based on her prior form, and her lack of early speed is a concern. I expect one of the Linda Rice entrants to this race. Pens Street (#1) has the better overall form, but she's pretty pace dependent. I know she sat closer to the lead last time going 9 furlongs, but that was a very slow pace. She figures to get outrun from the rail here, but I do expect her to be finishing well. I prefer Minnesota Munny (#7) if these two are similar prices. Like Pens Street, she was chasing outside against the rail bias on Feb. 14, but she finished better and did so while closing into the dawdling pace. I certainly don't mind her turning back to a one-turn mile, since she's 2-for-2 at this configuration.

RACE 5

Lotsa Trouble (#5) is the one to beat as he returns on short rest to contest this starter allowance. That victory one week ago came for a $25k claiming tag, and each of his last three victories have been earned in claiming races. He did get a pretty strong pace setup in that most recent start and unleased his typical strong finish to get up on the wire. Stretching back out to a mile should suit him, but he is being asked to run a big race for the third time in just 16 days. There does appear to be plenty of pace signed on, but J J's Ranger (#10) might be the quickest of them all early. He dominated an overmatched field of $10k claimers two back, but then ran surprisingly well off the claim against some tougher starter allowance foes last time. He did get a favorable frontrunning trip that day, but at least now he's drawn outside of other speed as he cuts back to a mile. I want to bet Shootersgottashoot (#4) in his second start since the trainer switch to Peter Synnefias. He got outrun going 6 1/2 furlongs last time, but he lost positioning early in that race and actually did well to close through the late stages in a race dominated towards the front end. He was running on best across the wire, and galloped out ahead of his rivals. That's one of the tougher races that any of these are exiting, and he proved he belongs at the level. His effort makes me think that stretching out to a mile should suit him even though he's relatively inexperienced at this distance.

RACE 6

Bam's Bliss Kiss (#2) is obviously a deserving favorite in her current form as she seeks her fifth victory in a row. She had improved significantly for prior connections, and it was a good sign that she continued that forward progression first off the claim for Jorge Abreu last time. She did take advantage of a rail bias in victory, but it's not as if the result was a surprise. She's clearly dangerous, but there is other speed in here to keep her honest early. I'll try to beat her this time with Despo's Dream (#6), who is getting needed class relief dropping out of some tougher allowance optional claimers. She spent much of her trip racing on a dead rail when last seen in January. She's been freshened up since then and is returning in an appropriate spot as Linda Rice wisely takes advantage of this available starter condition.

RACE 7

I respect the recent form of Lucky Dude (#3), who won his third start in a row when he came to Aqueduct to take down a starter allowance last time. He got a soft trip stalking outside that day and now he may have to maneuver through more traffic from off the pace. It is worth noting that he had been a horse that does best with forwardly placed trips and he's only been successful making wide, clear runs from behind in his last two starts. At a short price, that's enough to send me looking elsewhere. Shoot the Nickel (#10) has been in great form lately and will benefit from any pace that develops, though some speed has scratched out. Forgiving Spirit (#6) is another option to consider since he's getting class relief second off the layoff for Rudy Rodriguez. I don't love that he spent most of his trip on the gold rail last time, but he has prior form that makes him a real threat. Master of Arms (#9) may be a better option from Lucky Dude's last race since he should appreciate this slight turnback to 6 furlongs more than the winner. He was off slowly that day and had to be used to get into a stalking position early. He encountered traffic on the turn and made a gallant run through inside to settle for second. His overall form is better than it looks since he was inside on a dead rail two back. He can improve second off the claim for Horacio De Paz, and I like the outside draw for him here.

RACE 8

There are quite a few contenders to consider in this wide open 11-furlong starter allowance. Bob John Ray (#3) could play out as the pacesetter and that makes him dangerous. He came into very good form in his last several starts for Rob Atras, and I wonder if he can hold that level off the claim for new connections. I give strong consideration to Power Seeker (#6), who has twice been wide against rail biases in his last two starts. I'm not sure that he really wants to go 11 furlongs, but I know he's better than his last couple of results, and he has a right to rebound third off the layoff for Rudy Rodriguez. After the scratch of my original top pick, I will upgrade Parx invader Margie's Fun Son (#10). He obviously fits well on form, and comes in off two legitimately fast races at his home track. A repeat of either the 114 or 109 TimeformUS Speed Figures that he's earned in his last two starts will surely put him in the winner's circle against this group. He also strikes me as a horse who will relish the added distance he gets here.

RACE 9

Golden Eib Micrphrn (#5) has really blossomed over longer distances in her recent starts, but I tend to think that her improvement is more a product of spending time in the Jamie Ness barn. She's turning back to 7 furlongs here, but I really don't mind that for her since she's shown the ability to come from off the pace in the past. Her consistency makes her a pretty reliable option even as she comes to a new circuit. Mursal (#6) is another who shouldn't mind cutting back to 7 furlongs. I wish her recent form was a bit stronger, but she may not have loved getting involved in the pace in the mud last time. The only price idea that I could muster in this finale is Lika Rolling Stone (#2). She did not get a particularly good ride last time when ridden directly into traffic just as she was making her move at the quarter pole. She could never recover after that. Her prior races all fit pretty here, and I think the 7-furlong distance is perfect for her. She's turned into a closing type lately, and she should get a decent pace setup in this large field.