TimeformUS Race Analysis
David Aragona posts his picks & plays each live race day.
Sunday, May 24
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
Shining Moment will obviously scratch from this race, since she broke her maiden at Churchill earlier this week. However, Wesley Ward has a pretty good substitute in first time starter Timbertop (#6), who takes on the boys. She does have more dirt than turf in her pedigree, but it could go either way. She's a three-quarter sister to Tiz Splendid News, a very fast multiple dirt sprint winner. I'm sure Ward wouldn't mind this race getting rained off the grass, but it looks like this filly looks like she can really run on dirt. I watched that May 16 gate drill, and she was under a hammerlock hold in company with an overmatched stablemate, wanting to do much more than she was allowed. There are a couple of main track only runners in here. Tyson's Gamble (#8) has the best pedigree for dirt, being a half-brother Whittington Park, Looms Boldly, and Critical Value, and appears to be working forwardly for Brad Cox.
RACE 2
I don't have a clever opinion here. I watched some of the recent workouts for first time starter Boom Shocka Boom (#1) and wasn't thrilled with what I saw. He just doesn't appear to have a ton of staying power, and it's taken him a long time to get to the races. None of the alternatives are terribly compelling, but I'll take a shot with Always Honest (#5), who hasn't sprinted since early January. He's a big horse who may have needed some time to grow into his frame, and his early sprints weren't that bad.
RACE 3
I'm not trying to beat likely favorite Pocket Queens (#5), who gets significant class relief as she drops back in for a tag. She just hasn’t' really progressed since returning from a layoff this winter, and this seems like the right class level at this point in her career. It also helps that there appears to be plenty of speed in here to set up her late run. That was the main thing holding me back from taking a shot against her with Moon Gate (#7). I do think this filly is the most interesting alternative as she makes her first start off the claim for the underrated Linda Dixon. It's just hard to envision her getting loose up front and she usually needs the lead to win.
RACE 4
There's still some dirt form in this field even after it got rained off the turf. Majestic Return (#8) looks like the main speed and she has run well over wet tracks before, but she figures to get some early pressure from the runner drawn to her outside. I'm hoping that Howling Wind (#5) sits a good stalking trip just off them. She moved too soon into a pace that collapsed last time, but that effort was a step back in the right direction for her. She's in much better form now than when she previously tried a surface like this. The other logical contender Nina Kay (#4) needs some pace assistance, but is obviously a strong fit here based on recent form. I just figured Howling Wind would be a slightly better price.
RACE 5
I'm not really against logical dropdown Kay Road (#7). She ran races two and three back that should put her in the winner's circle at this level. The only drawback is that she ran poorly last time, and that was her only time trying a sloppy, sealed track, which she will probably encounter again on Sunday. She still merits respect, but the price will be short. I'll take a small shot against her with Big Jackie (#1). She's just getting significant class relief as she makes her first start for a tag. I know she hasn't done much running her prior dirt races, but he was green on debut. I thought had some upside coming out of that effort, and may be this will be the spot where she can finally take that next step forward. Both her dam Aunt Babe and sibling Sanzio improved through racing.
RACE 6
This starter allowance for New York-breds is highly competitive as all of the 7 entrants are in with a chance. I think trips and pace could determine the outcome, and I would expect Our Preferred Pal (#2) to get another aggressive ride from her inside post position. Ruben Silvera has gunned her to the front end in two of his three rides aboard her. She just found six furlongs to be too short when she failed to make the front two back, and had some subtle traffic throughout that race. She's otherwise been in good form since returning from a layoff this winter. It did take her 14 attempts to break her maiden. Yet she has this starter condition available to her, which makes facing winners less of a step up in class than it normally would be. I think she's the most likely winner, and she probably won't be favored. Scarlet's Dream (#7) looks like one of her main pace rivals breaking from the outside post. She beat a weaker field when she won at the $30k conditioned claiming level last time, but it does feel like Keri Brion finally has her back in decent form. She had run races a year ago at this time that would beat this field, and she's steadily been coming back around for the new barn. A. P. Slingshot (#4) was defeated by that foe when they met on April 10, but she got the winner's circle at that level last time. She's stepping up in class as well, but has been pretty reliable lately, and should be closing late to pick up pieces for at least a minor award.
RACE 7
There isn't much left in this field after the surface switch and scratches. Sarir (#10) draws in from the MTO list and appears to tower over this field from a class perspective. Her recent form is obviously less than desirable, but she was compromised by racing outside against a rail bias two back, and faced much tougher rivals last time. I actually don't mind her stretching out a bit since she's bred to do it, and has always struck me as a horse who has the stride pattern to get longer distances. The toughest rival might be Luckforyou (#4), who has run well in the slop before and put in a pretty game effort in her last dirt race. I just don't think she's nearly as good as Sarir if they both show up.
RACE 8
Vibrant Express (#9) is clearly the horse to beat after this race has been rained off the dirt. Since getting put on Lasix following a bleeding incident in his debut, he has been nearly perfect in 6 subsequent starts. His only loss last time could be attributed to rider error, since he was somehow dragged back to last after breaking sharply, which is the opposite of his running style. He still ran on gamely for second, arguably putting in one of the strongest efforts of his career. If he runs as well here, he's going to be a handful. Light Man (#8) was off a layoff in that same race and got mildly shuffled back to upper stretch, but still was never beating Vibrant Express. I don't want to give him too much of an excuse since this horse has run well off layoffs in the past. My price idea to beat the favorite is actually his stablemate War Stride (#6). It's unclear if this horse can still perform at this level, but I think it's a positive sign that he ran as well as he did off the layoff on turf last time. That's not really his preferred surface, but he still was competitive with a tough field. He ran some dirt races over this course last winter and spring that would make him a danger, and if he figures to get the right setup if the 3 MTO runners with speed hook up with the speedy What's Up Bro early.
RACE 9
Awesome Empire (#3) seems logical as he switches back to his preferred dirt surface. His form has tailed off a bit, but this appears to be the right level for him. Secured Freedom (#7) is another who appears to fit here on recent form, though he is moving up in class off the claim. I wonder if he'll get overbet based on the perception of having an affinity for an off track. Ambition (#5) probably won't get the respect he deserves due to connections. He was in too tough when he last ran on dirt in early April, but he had been in great form prior to that. He's dropping to the right level. The other horse I want to use at what should be an even bigger price is Sara's Shaman (#6). Some of these Kantarmaci runners shipping in from Oaklawn have done well in their initial NYRA starts, and I'm hoping that's the case with this horse. I don't love that his best races came in Texas, but he still put in decent efforts in Arkansas. He strikes me as a horse who will appreciate the one-turn mile of this race, and he picks up Manny Franco.
Monday, May 25
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
Ican (#3) will beat this field if he gets back to his best form. It's pretty easy to excuse his first start off the claim for Linda Rice since he was stuck down on a dead rail on Jan. 10. However, the subsequent layoff leads me to believe that something went awry after that. He's now returning from a four-month layoff dropping in for the lowest claiming tag of his career. Rice can win with these types, but I do wonder if this horse's best days are behind him. Momentum Files (#5) was ridden very aggressively in that first start for Rudy Rodriguez last time, getting gunned to the lead through a fast opening quarter before fading. He might benefit from more patient tactics here. My top pick is The Toy Cannon (#2), who moves up to face older rivals for the first time. He met a tough rival in the talented Wonder Mist last time out and had little chance once he failed to make the lead. Prior to that, he just couldn't get a mile. I think he's back at the right distance and level, and he should play out as the main speed from the inside.
RACE 2
I'll add analysis once it becomes clear if this race can stay on the turf.
RACE 3
I'll add analysis once it becomes clear if this race can stay on the turf.
RACE 4
None of the runners in this field are particularly trustworthy. Schlomo (#2) can obviously win if he progresses in his second start off a layoff. He's protected with the waiver for a second time in a row, but there's no guarantee that he's going to get back to his best form prior to the long break. His early speed makes him dangerous since there doesn't appear to be a ton of pace in here, but I didn't want to settle for a short price on him. I thought main rival Princip (#6) might have run better when they met on May 2, since he was pushed extremely wide on the far turn. However, his lack of early speed is a concern. The same goes for dropdown Thrill Of It (#4). He can be a bit more involved early on occasion, and he's dropping back down to the right level. He just hasn't won a race in so long. I'm aiming for a bigger price with Enduring Spirit (#5). Perhaps he just can't run at this level anymore, but I can make excuses for several of his recent starts. He got off to a terrible start on Feb. 15, and he got caught wet, sealed tracks in two of his last 5 starts surrounding that. He really can't handle that type of going, so I obviously would change my opinion of him if the track is still sealed on Monday. However, last time he was off to a terrible start and then got pushed forward going a mile, which is too far for him. I like him turning back and adding blinkers.
RACE 5
I'll add analysis once it becomes clear if this race can stay on the turf.
RACE 6
I'll add analysis once it becomes clear if this race can stay on the turf.
RACE 7
Sweet Laura (#1) is obviously the horse to beat as a 14-time winner in the best form of her career right now. She's based on Parx, but she easily won her lone prior race at Aqueduct three back. She has since carried that form forward, chasing home graded stakes winner Irish Maxima before easily beating a weaker field last time. If she runs as well here, she's going to be a handful, but the price figures to be short. Snide (#8) has run nearly as well in recent starts. She defeated the sharp Grace and Grit two back and last time chased home improving 3-year-old filly Point of Reference. She's drawn well outside with tactical speed, and it's a good sign that Linda Rice is coming back on short rest. Those are the two likely favorites, but I think Sailaway (#7) has a chance for a minor upset. Her last race was flattered when Waveless returned to win. She didn't run as well two races back, but Sailaway was compromised by a wide trip against the rail bias that day. She's been steadily improving since getting claimed by Gustavo Rodriguez and she appears to be working well for this return from a brief freshening. If any pace develops, she figures to be rolling late. She also has done her best work when there's some moisture in the track.
RACE 8
I'm not trying to beat Lucky Dude (#3) in this starter allowance. The Parx-based runner is in great form right now, having won 4 of his last 6 starts. He proved he could get a two-turn mile last time, so turning back to one-turn at this distance should be no issue. He's beaten some tougher rivals than those he's facing here, so this is arguably some minor class relief for him. There appears to be some pace in here, which should also suit closer Sharp Spark (#1). I'm just not sure he's quite as talented as the top pick, but he should appreciate getting back on dirt after a failed turf experiment last time. Register (#5) does his best work when he can be forwardly placed, and I would imagine Silvestre Gonzalez will ride him aggressively first off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci. He has some races that can be competitive here, but he just lacks consistency.
RACE 9
I'll add analysis once it becomes clear if this race can stay on the turf.
