TimeformUS Race Analysis
David Aragona posts his picks & plays each live race day.
Friday, April 17
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
You can make a reasonable case for anyone in this conditioned claiming opener. I have some doubts about Reliable Lady (#1) getting the distance, and I thought she could take money off her narrow loss at this level last time. I also didn't quite trust Malu (#2), who looks like a standout based on her 2025 form for Lind Rice. However, she ran poorly off a layoff last time and now goes out for a new barn, though one that does well off the claim. Rice has two in here, of which I prefer Vino Frizzante (#3), who returns on short rest after putting up a poor effort here last week. Linda does great with this move, and this mare gets minor class relief. My top pick is Bourbon Serengeti (#5), the other Ilkay Kantarmaci entrant. I didn't love the decision to rate her last time, and thought she was running on decently at the end after losing position into the lane. She fits at this level and I like the switch to a rider that this barn tends to use when they want a frontrunning trip.
RACE 2
There's little left to say about this race after 4 of the 7 runners scratched. Coquito (#6) finished a solid second on Starter Championship day last time, and appears to have a massive pace advantage against what remains here.
RACE 3
Mo for the King (#1) will beat this field if he's able to reproduce his last effort, where he obliterated a state-bred starter field. He now moves up into open company, and he's catching a tougher field. Perhaps he's just a new horse sprinting, but I want to see him do it again, especially now that he's drawn the rail and likely to work out a different trip. There is plenty of speed signed on, which could set things up for a late runner. The obvious one is Sinister Smile (#8), who ran very well to be third at this level two back behind a talented pair of Linda Rice trainees. Then last time he didn't seem to appreciate stretching out to a mile, and also was wide in the early stages on a day you wanted to save ground. He's logical, but I have a little more interest in betting Go Irish (#6) at a better price. This gelding ran like one that needed a race off the layoff last time, as he made a middle move before flattening out. That wasn't a particularly fast pace, so it's not as if he was just running with the flow. He had gotten into very good form last fall and is now reunited with Javier Castellano.
RACE 4
Both runners with the fastest prior races have some questions to answer. Up for an Oscar (#3) earned the top turf speed figure in this field when he was a narrowly beaten third at this level last October. However, that was a slightly disappointing loss given his short price and the fact that he appeared to have every chance to win in mid-stretch. I won't be too hard on him for the last race since he got a wide trip, but I also don't know how many more chances I want to give a horse who has taken money every time. Orgonite (#2) is the reliable alternative with comparable prior form, but he's coming off a substantial layoff. David Donk has come out firing since the start of this new meet, but I still wonder if this horse could need a race after taking a few starts to reach peak form last year. There are several 3-year-olds to consider but none are terribly compelling, at least to me. I'll instead give a chance to first time starter Capt Fluff N Stuff (#6). It's taken this 4-year-old son of Astern a while to get to the races, but that's not necessarily a bad thing in this barn. Chad Brown is 7 for 13 (54%, $5.46 ROI) with 4YO+ first time starters in turf routes over the last 5 years. I liked the visual of this gelding's sales work from long ago, and he's got plenty of turf pedigree, being out of 4-time turf winner In the Lee and also related to turf stakes winners Ironicus and On Leave.
RACE 5
Wesley Ward holds a strong hand in this allowance turf sprint, sending out the two horses to beat. Di Natale (#1) seems like the slightly stronger contender after just missing against a very tough rival in her lone U.S. turf sprint over this course and distance last year. She subsequently suffered another narrow defeat at Turfway. She's needed time after each of those starts, but that's typical for Wesley Ward. His other runner Dangherecomesshang (#6) improved quickly getting back on turf last year and held her form in some strong races at this level. She's a minor question mark going 6 furlongs, but the outer turf did appear to be carrying speed on Thursday. I have some interest in one alternative at a better price. Shore War (#2) is too slow based on her prior turf races, but I think she'll be capable of better switching back to turf for Amelia Green. She ran well off a layoff at Turfway in December and some of her prior turf sprint form is better than it might appear at first glance. That's especially true of her race from August 2024 where she got completely blocked in traffic. She has the tactical speed to sit a pocket trip and figures to get somewhat overlooked.
RACE 6
Only the two rivals who bookend this field are coming off victories, and they figure to attract support by virtue of those recent wins. Ez Roll (#1) beat a weaker state-bred starter allowance field last time, but he does appear to have come to hand since switching back to dirt for Ray Handal this winter. The added distance is a question mark, but he has negotiated two turns on turf successfully in the past. I prefer him to Probability (#8), the other horse exiting a victory. He just broke his maiden last time out and did so against a pretty soft field for the level. I’m more intrigued by a couple of longshots. One of those is Smilensaycheese (#7), who has never gone this far before. He's been fairly inconsistent throughout his career and that trend has continued for his current barn. However, he did earn a speed figure that puts him squarely in the mix two back, and he finishes like a horse who should appreciate added ground. My top pick is Gamebred (#3), another contender who has never tried two turns before. However, he did run the best race of his career in his lone start stretching out to a mile in January. He was facing a pretty strong starter allowance field and held his own with a strong second-place finish, earning a career-best 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure. A repeat of that effort would likely win here. He has regressed in two subsequent starts, but he was against a track bias two back and never in great position last time. I'm expecting him to get a more aggressive ride picking up Jose Lezcano breaking from an advantageous inside post position.
RACE 7
While Chad Brown has three runners in this race, he might not have the horse to beat. Mark Casse's And One More Time (#7) has kept stronger company through recent starts down in Florida and has run better than it might appear a few times. She was totally against the race flow in the Pegasus, which collapsed late, and then last time she just couldn't see out 9 furlongs over a course with some give to it. Turning back to a mile should suit her, and she's squarely the one to catch. An intriguing new face in this lineup is Relaxx (#3), who makes her U.S. debut for Miguel Clement. She ran some decent races over in France and looks like one that might move up on firmer ground. I'm not the biggest fan of Chad Brown's primary contender Oversubscribed (#1), who had to work hard to beat a weak field off the layoff in the Forever Together last year, and was pretty dull at Fair Grounds last time. His other runners interest me more. Al Jafara (#4) was compromised by an unfavorable setup in the Endeavor last time, but she may not get the pace assistance that she needs once again. I want Accent (#5), who might be the biggest price of Brown's trio. I wasn't thrilled with her first couple of starts, but I thought she really stepped forward second off the layoff last time. She got a good trip, but displayed an effective turn of foot when asked past the quarter pole and won quite easily. This is a big step up in class, but I like the confidence being displayed. She's certainly bred to pan out as the half-sister to Grade 1 winner Program Trading.
RACE 8
If Twirling Lad (#4) can handle the turnback to sprinting, he's probably going to win this finale. He was a pretty good 2-year-old, just missing at this level in October before finishing a strong fifth in the Notebook while still a maiden. He breaks sharply and has plenty of natural speed, so the turnback in distance shouldn’t be an issue for him. I'm not really against him, but not exactly keen to take a short price. I also wouldn't want to settle for too short a price on Aristide Maillol (#6), who has plenty of pedigree to handle this surface. Though, the fact that he's so obviously turf meant makes it a little strange that Bill Mott started him out on dirt down in Florida. He should move up on this surface, but I don't like that he's broken a step slowly in both prior starts. First time starter Kirkwood (#8) offers some appeal, being by excellent debut sire Vekoma and a half-brother to turf stakes winner Leon Blue. Miguel Clement has proven he can win with newcomers, and it's a good sign that Manny Franco lands here. Among the surface switchers, Deacon Blues (#9) intrigues me most. He's by underrated turf sire Dominus, who gets 13% turf sprint winners and sired this barn's turf horse Thin White Duke. He's also out of a dam who is a half-sister to 7-time turf winner Bonita Springs. This gelding looked like a horse who would appreciate a surface switch over the winter, and I like the Donk put him away to await the start of turf season.
Thursday, April 16
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
I didn't love the last effort from My Girl Aubree (#5), who was unable to win at this level despite getting a great stalking trip. Some might focus on the fact that she was bumped in the last furlong, but I didn't see that having much of an impact on her performance. I have a little more faith in She's Bankable (#3), who contested a solid pace last time and fought on gamely to just miss second behind a first time starter. There is a fair amount of pace in here, but I'm still not sure that will be enough to get 0 for 19 Lady Delilah (#4) into the winner's circle. She fits at this level, but is probably better used underneath. The only horse I could bet is No Reserve (#1), who faced a decent field on debut last summer. She showed good early speed to contest that pace while racing wide before shutting down late. She's placed realistically for the return and may be dangerous up front getting in light with apprentice Dalila Rivera aboard.
RACE 2
Sharp Spark (#1) is obviously the horse to beat after getting up for second in a marathon starter even last time out. That was his first start off the claim for Rob Atras and he held his form well. However, he doesn't possess much early speed and it's hard to project much pace for him in this small field. Hey Toby (#5) figures to go forward, but he's questionable at this 9-furlong distance. I prefer the other potential speed. Laughing Boy (#2) didn't run that well first off the claim for Karl Grusmark last time, but I didn't think he got a great ride. He was outrun to the front and lost some position on the far turn before staying on belatedly through traffic late. He's proven at these two-turn distances, and figures to be much more aggressively handled from the inside by Jorge Vargas this time. The barn being winless on the year figures to drive up the price on a horse who otherwise seems like a pretty solid contender.
RACE 3
Like most players who have followed this circuit through the winter, I'm pretty sick of Noguchi (#1) losing at short prices. However, I do think this rider switch to Dalila Rivera is a pretty interesting move by Linda Rice. This horse is fainthearted and the thought process is probably that putting him in front and getting some weight off might carry him the distance at this level. I'm not sure I quite buy it, but I would hardly be shocked if he beat this field. It's not like I have much trust in his main rival Sounds Like Fun (#6), who gets claimed by a barn that has been pretty quiet so far in 2026. He didn't do much running off the long layoff last time, and it's unclear if he's ever going to get back to the fleeting form we saw him produce last May. I'll try to beat this pair with the lightly raced Final Joke (#8). He obviously has to get faster to win at this level, but he caught a tough duo on debut and then participated in a deceptively strong maiden race at Parx last time. That field has proven to be stronger than the speed figures it was assigned. He now gets significant class relief, and I like him stretching out to a mile.
RACE 4
After spending far too long considering various options in this race, I'm defaulting to proven turf horse Mermaid (#6). It's mildly disappointing that she's still a maiden considering that she finished second behind Breeders' Cup winner Cy Fair on debut last summer. However, she isn't catching a particularly tough field for this level as she ships back to New York. Her main rivals all have their flaws. I'm highly dubious of the speed figures assigned to the only turf race for Beneficence (#7), since so many have come back to regress. Amended Dreamer (#5) has had tough trips in each of her last two starts on grass, but she's not the best gate horse and that worries me as she turns back to a sprint. Bourbon Betty (#3) has the most convincing pedigree of those trying turf for the first time, produced from a strong Colts Neck female family. However, Mark Hennig is just 2 for 44 ($0.59 ROI) with horses switching to turf for the first time over the last 5 years.
RACE 5
While she hasn't posed a significant threat in any of her three prior starts, the company that Academia (#1) has kept probably makes her the horse to beat. She chased home G1 Spinaway winner Tommy Jo last summer, and then in her turf debut found herself in against Lion Lake, who returned to win the G3 Herecomesthebride at Gulfstream. She didn't show much improvement in that initial turf attempt, but she also ran a strange race, getting outrun on the far turn before staying on belatedly in the final furlong. I prefer Brown's other runner Tax Holiday (#4), who didn't run nearly as poorly as it might seem in her Tampa debut. She was getting a good trip inside before she got completely shuffled out of the race rounding the far turn. I wish she had recovered a bit better when she got clearly in the lane, but the trouble she experienced on the turn was a valid excuse. The horse I really want to bet is Majestic Moonlight (#5), who gets on turf for the first time. She doesn't have that much obvious turf breeding, but she trains like a horse who can improve with the surface switch. She faced a very tough field in her dirt debut down at Gulfstream and just never seemed comfortable while outrun over that course. Since then she has worked very well on turf at Palm Meadows, including a quick Feb. 8 drill where she was much the best against a couple of decent workmates. According to DRF Formulator, trainer Jorge Abreu is 4 for 17 (24%, $7.21 ROI) with maidens switching to turf for the first time over the last 5 years.
RACE 6
B Thedonald (#5) seems like a legitimate favorite even as he steps up against winners for the first time. He closed well after getting away slowly on debut, and last time he won despite breaking from the outside post and getting a wide trip over a rail-biased surface. It's conceivable that he could improve again here, and that probably puts him in the winner's circle. You just have to take a short price on a horse moving up in class. I prefer him to Love Coin (#2), who was visually impressive going from last to first on debut but did benefit from a hot pace against a weaker field. If I'm going to try and beat this favorite, it will be with Stickupwithoutagun (#3), who has a right to run faster as he returns for his 3-year-old campaign. He contested the pace while racing wide against a much tougher field in the Champagne last fall and unsurprisingly paid the price late. His maiden win at Saratoga prior to that had been a solid effort, and the form from that race has aged pretty well. He appears to be working well for his returning and I like him turning back to a sprint.
RACE 7
Among those with turf form, One Last Knock (#1) is the horse to beat after running well in all of her turf starts last season. She has to deal with a layoff, but Keri Brion is highly experienced at bringing horses back off lengthy breaks. This filly even ran better than it might appear in her last start when she was always wide from an outside post. She draws well inside and should sit a good trip from just off the pace. Fifi La Fume (#4) and Long Legged Queen (#6) didn't finish that far behind her in that Nov. 15 race at this level. The latter hasn't raced since then, just like One Last Knock. However, Fifi La Fume got in a couple of dirt preps this winter and may be set for a better effort as she returns to turf. She just needs some pace to develop but should be a square price. There are a few 3-year-olds stepping up, and Trading Trouble (#7) is likely to attract the most support among them. I just didn't like the way she tailed off at the end of her juvenile season and I wonder if she's the type who will improve with age. Her pedigree suggests otherwise. I'm instead going to try a bigger priced 3-year-old. Sugartown Sweetie (#9) gets on turf for the first time, but I made the note over the winter that she looked like a horse who would benefit from this surface switch. I'm encouraged that the connections apparently see the same thing, getting her into a turf race as soon as they had the chance. Mitole is a deceptively strong turf influence, winning with over 14% of his turf sprint starters. This filly is a half-sister to 2 turf winners and has the mechanics of a horse who should move up on this surface.
RACE 8
Watching back that replay of the last race for Morning Prayer (#1) still stings a bit, as I had picked and bet her at 18-1 and she just got nailed on the wire in her turf debut. She's probably the horse to beat as she returns from a layoff given the lack of turf form among her competition in this state-bred maiden affair. However, she's hard for me to take at a short price off a layoff after that tough beat when she was a longshot last fall. I also think one of her main rivals Bernina Express (#3) is a little more interesting as a less exposed option. Her lone turf start is better than it looks. She did get a good trip for the first half of the race, advancing along the rail while saving ground. However, she tried to move inside of the leaders at the quarter pole and got stopped in traffic, then steadied again in upper stretch, basically losing all chance. She subsequently failed to handle dirt and they wisely put her away for the winter. She returns to her preferred surface and draws well. First time tarters All of It (#4) and Take Charge Smarty (#5) both offer some appeal going out for barns that can win on debut. I just preferred those with experience, but will keep an open mind if either of those newcomers makes a favorable impression pre-race.
