TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

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Strategies & Insights

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RACE 1

It's hard to really trust anyone in this opener. The best horse in the race might be Always Angels (#3), but I have serious reservations about her getting this distance. Linda Rice does have a knack for getting horses to stretch out, but she's liable to get overbet with Flavien Prat aboard. I have just as many reservations about the one-mile distance for Ready for Trouble (#4), who was against the track at this distance two back but still has primarily been a sprinter. I'll instead give the nod to Broadway Lights (#5), who proved she could get a mile on dirt in that off the turf race back in July. She didn't have the smoothest trip that day, getting bumped very hard coming out of the chute before staying on for second. She disappointed first off the claim for Joe Sharp last time, but I won't be too hard on her for that race since the track was speed-favoring and she lost position when held up behind a moderate pace early.

RACE 2

Helen's Revenge (#6) is a deserving favorite in her current form. She beat a weaker group than this two back in her return from the layoff but did so quite convincingly. Then last time she actually did well to challenge her heavily favored stablemate Atarah before settling for third. She's just going to be a short price given her obvious merits. Amy's Light (#4) wanted no part of 9 furlongs against a tougher field of allowance foes last time. She's getting minor class relief in this starter allowance race, and should respond well to the turnback. The same goes for Graceful Rose (#3), who also met some tougher rivals in her recent starts in the New York-bred allowance ranks. She was compromised by slow paces in her last couple of starts, and had little chance to close over a speed-favoring track last time. They're both intriguing, but I am concerned about a potential lack of pace for them. My top pick is the other Linda Rice runner Dia Por Dia (#1), who won her debut against $30k state-bred claimers in November. I liked that effort, as she didn't break sharply but showed decent speed to push the pace before losing position on the turn. Most firsters wouldn't be able to come back after that, but she did well to find another gear along the rail, rallying to victory. It's interesting that Prat picks up the mount, and Rice has extremely strong statistics with these types. She is 7 for 17 (41%, $2.95 ROI) with last-out debut winners on dirt over 5 years. She should be vying for the lead from the rail in a race that doesn't feature much pace.

RACE 3

There are cases to be made for all 6 runners in this conditioned claimer, but I ultimately had trouble looking post the Linda Rice pair. Apalta (#3) really tailed off for Todd Pletcher, but he did seem to respond well to the stretch-out in distance when dropped in class last time. Linda Rice does very well with horses like this, as she is 13 for 38 (34%, $2.94 ROI) first off the claim with last-out maiden winners on dirt over 5 years. I just prefer the proven class of stablemate Fever Night (#5), who has faced better rivals in all 3 starts since getting claimed by Rice. He failed to make much of an impact going this distance last time, but that was a stronger field and he was returning from a significant layoff. He's now dropping to a realistic level, though he will have to overcome a potential lack of pace.

RACE 4

Master of Arms (#2) owns a body of work that should make him too tough for this field to handle, but I do have some concerns about him holding his form. He's been dangled for lower-level claiming tags ever since his return last fall despite possessing form that suggests he should be competing at higher levels. There appear to be some holes in this horse, and now he's moving into a barn that is just 4 for 35 (11%, $0.88 ROI) first off the claim on the NYRA circuit. Great Richie M (#1) is another with plenty of back class, but he also got dropped in class last year and hasn't really regained top form ever since. I do think he's getting class relief after twice facing tougher in the span of a week back in October. He now switches into the barn of Linda Rice. I'll try to beat this pair with Lost in Rome (#6). He has obviously been disappointing in two starts since getting claimed by Wayne Potts, but I find it intriguing that Potts shipped him to Oaklawn last month, where he got in a couple of workouts. Potts has struggled on the NYRA circuit, but he is 13 for 41 (32%, $3.12 ROI) at Oaklawn over the last 5 years, and has already gotten some horses to reverse their form at that track this year. Perhaps the vacation will benefit Lost in Rome, who does have prior form that makes him a strong fit at this level.

RACE 5

I didn't get too creative in this one. Probability (#5) hadn't lived up to the hype early in his career for Todd Pletcher, but he hinted that he might be returning as a new horse for Will Walden last time with a series of strong workouts. One of those was a drill in which he outworked Grade 1-placed Gosger at Churchill. While he lost that return at a short price, he did displayed marked improvement. The form was also flattered when winner Twohonestmischief came right back to run well against winners. This colt will be tough to beat with any kind of forward move second off the layoff. The obvious alternative is Antietam (#4), who goes first off the claim for Linda Rice. Yet this horse was disappointing at Keeneland last time and I really haven't been thrilled with any of his prior dirt races.

RACE 6

It's hard to have a strong opinion in this $12,500 conditioned claimer where few appear to be in great form. The dramatic dropdown That's Funny (#2) is clearly the horse to beat, but she's hardly trustworthy after she regressed significantly off the claim for Wayne Potts last time. The pace of that race didn't really work for her, but I still wanted to see her make more of a late impact. I prefer a couple of others with more early speed. Spirit of Esther (#4) seemed to appreciate a slight cutback in distance last time, and she's dangerous right back with a similar effort. Cara's Chianti (#5) crossed the wire far behind that rival in the same race last time, but she possesses more natural early speed than she displayed that day. She was out of position early and got steadied further back down the backstretch. Her maiden win two back was hardly a compelling effort, but it did confirm that she can do better when she attains forward position. That's likely to be the plan here with Ruben Silvera getting back aboard.

RACE 7

The key to this race could be the early pace, as the two likely favorites have the same running style. Both Vettriano (#2) and One Nine Hundred (#5) perform best when they are able to secure the early lead. The TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates that the Tom Morley trained 4-year-old One Nine Hundred is slightly faster in the early stages, but Vettriano may get handled more aggressively given his inside post position. Both have the credentials to this race, having earned the fastest recent speed figures in this field. One Nine Hundred arguably has a little more upside as he makes his second start off a layoff. He showed promise during his 3-year-old season and may still be improving. Yet Vettriano has kept strong company in recent starts and always seems to show up with competitive efforts at Aqueduct. Some may view Mr Skylight (#6) as a possible alternative as he makes his first start off the claim for Joe Sharp and picks up Flavien Prat. He will have to improve upon his recent form, but he did have a legitimate excuse last time when he got clobbered from both sides at the start before rallying into third. He ran races early in his career that would give him a chance here, and perhaps the change of scenery will get him back on track. My top pick is Toxic Gray (#3), who is another horse with prior races that would give him a serious chance to upset the favorites. He is coming off a poor recent performance when he finished nearly 8 lengths behind Vettriano in December. Yet that was his return from an 8-month layoff. He's a horse who has needed to race into fitness in the past, and his trainer Mike Miceli rarely has horses cranked up for their best efforts off the bench. The 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned at this distance back in April puts him squarely in the mix, and he has shown the ability to be effective from a stalking position in the past.

RACE 8

This is another race where it's hard to form particularly opinions for or against anyone. I would rather not just default to Mo Spice (#3) at a short price, though I did like that he displayed improved tactical speed getting on dirt last time. Perhaps cutting back will work for him, but it's unclear that he's much more talented than anyone else in this field. Tinseltown (#5) is another who drops from that same maiden optional level, but I wish that he had shown more in that debut run. I'll tentatively try Bellamy (#7) as he makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice. I didn't really like his horse's dirt debut, but perhaps he just doesn't want to go that far. His dam's side pedigree is more sprint-oriented, and this will be his first time going nearly this short.