TimeformUS Race Analysis
David Aragona posts his picks & plays each live race day.
Friday, January 23
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
Some may be reluctant to take a one-number horse like Takahama (#6), who finished second at nearly 50-1 last time and now will be a much shorter price on the strength of that one effort. However, it's fair to argue that his last race was the first time that he had the chance to truly represent himself. After all, his connections tried stakes company in 2 of his first 3 starts, which was overly ambitious. He also started out sprinting, and he just doesn't look like a sprinter. He finally got to stretch out last time, and he was also switched into the barn of Ralph D'Alessandro, who can be quite live during the winter at Aqueduct. He finished well along the inside behind The Obliterator, who came right back to run well against winners, validating that speed figure. He's drawn well outside, and I think he's the horse to beat. The other horse I want is Vinnie Bankerino (#1), who should appreciate stretching out. He's a half-brother to routers Cinderella's Cause and Amedeus Music, and he also looks like a horse that needs more ground, staying on with big, steady strides in his races. He just needs to get a bit faster. Always Honest (#5) is another stretch-out to consider on the drop in class, but I wonder about a son of Honest Mischief improving with more ground.
RACE 2
This allowance optional claimer drew a small but competitive field where all four remaining runners are in with strong chances. Linda Rice will only go with Acoustic Ave (#1), who comes off a disappointing effort but had been consistent prior to that. I know Rice indicated she feels he's better rating, but they may be forced to use his speed from the inside. Baby Yoda (#2) once would have been a heavy favorite in a spot like this, but he has questions to answer after regressing in two stakes attempts since getting claimed by Rob Falcone. He's getting class relief here, but I'm concerned that he appears to have lost the early speed he once possessed. His chances improve if they rate Acoustic Avenue. Former stablemate Bold Journey (#3) ran well to beat a couple of these rivals at the same level on Dec. 27, but he is a confirmed closer who may not get the pace setup he requires. My top pick is General Banker (#4), who finished third in that Dec. 27 race that a couple of others exit. It was a significant improvement upon his return against stakes company, a race that he obviously needed coming off a layoff. This horse hasn't sprinted as short as 6 furlongs very often during his career, but he did respond well to a turnback in distance last time. He arguably could have won that race if he had been able to find a clear running lane in the stretch. He was locked in the pocket behind runners into the lane and had to alter course in traffic in the final furlong. He galloped out in front of the whole field after the wire, suggesting he had more to give. I think he can put it all together third off the layoff.
RACE 3
I couldn't find much of interest in this cheap maiden claimer. Sabby Sunset (#4) has the proven dirt sprint form, and has run well against tougher company than this. She was only beaten two lengths by Sheer Will two back, and that rival would be about 1-20 against this field. She lost confidence when unable to make the lead against males last time, but she should be in position to control this race up front.
RACE 4
As in the previous race, we're probably going to have a short-priced favorite in the form of Shoot the Nickel (#4), who makes his first start off the claim for Brad Cox and Sandy Goldfarb. This horse's form did tail off for prior connections, and I don't like that he's dropped further in class first off the claim for the new barn, as if they're acknowledging they made a poor acquisition. He's the horse to beat, but there are some red flags. King Phoenix (#1) is the likely pacesetter in a paceless race, but I don't like that his one competitive speed figure was achieved at Finger Lakes, and I also have some reservations about him getting 7 furlongs. I'll instead take a shot with Ez Roll (#6) having enough dirt ability to handle this field as he drops in class. He's clearly a better turf horse, but he really didn't run that badly against a tougher group on dirt last time. Shorter may suit him on this surface, and he at least has the tactical speed to stay involved throughout.
RACE 5
This is one of the more competitive races of the day, but also one the most inscrutable with plenty of guesswork to be done among this lightly raced cast of maidens. Those with experience aren't exactly compelling. The best of those might be Call Me Jal (#1), who ran pretty well chasing the pace at a higher level on debut. Yet she was a big price that day, and will be a fraction of those odds here. Therefore, focus shifts to the first time starters. Maizey Blue (#7) appeared to have some athletic ability in that 10 2/5 workout at OBS last year, and Ken McPeek's New York string has been winning with firsters for the last year. I don't expect her to be much of a price given the consistently solid worktab, but she's obviously a contender. The firster I want to bet is Beau Hill (#6). These connections are always dangerous on debut, and trainer Dimitrios Synnefias is 31:7-6-4 (23%, $4.13 ROI) with all firsters over the last 5 years. Furthermore, this budget auction buy actually has plenty of pedigree behind her, as a half-sister to G2 turf winner Saffron Moon. It is more turf pedigree on the dam's side, but Beau Liam is a dirt sire. She's worked pretty fast for his, and may fly under the radar.
RACE 6
I know Apollo Code (#6) benefited from the track profile when he wired a field off the layoff last time. That form was still flattered when runner-up Burninhunkoflove returned to basically repeat that effort in his next start, and he was also forward in that spot. He's now making his first start off the claim for Ray Handal, who once did quite well with this move. I like that he's protected off the claim, and he looks to play out as the controlling speed once again. I'm not trying to beat him, primarily because his main rivals all have their flaws. Brave Buck (#5) has primarily faced weaker fields than this, though he is consistent. Forgone (#4) eventually got up against maidens last time, but it took him a long time to hit his best stride, and I tend to think 6 furlongs is a tad short for him.
RACE 7
It's hard to trust Rachel's Rock (#6) off the long layoff as she drops all the way down to race for less than half of her previous lowest claiming tag. She will crush this field if she can remember who she once was, but it's hard to expect a typical effort given this placement. She still might win even with regression, since this is not a strong field, but I can't quite endorse her at a short price. Mitole's Girl (#1) will take money off the Brad Cox claim, but her recent form has been pretty poor. Linda Rice has entered a couple of options. Toxic Girl (#5) was claimed by her for a dangerous owner, but she had already been in strong form for her prior connections and I wonder how much she can improve going to Linda. I prefer Rice's other runner Top of the Table (#10), who ran the best race despite just getting nailed at the wire first off the claim last time. She's probably getting when she gets held up early, and I imagine Sahin Civaci will look to adjust his tactics here. She's drawn well outside for this distance, and had run plenty of prior races for Mark Hennig that could beat a field at this level.
RACE 8
Linda Rice will look to complete what might be another multi-win day with heavy favorite Beck's Dreamer (#10) in this finale. He will be tough to beat if he brings his Churchill form to this circuit, but there are some questions as he returns from a layoff and drops in class all the way down to this $12,500 level. He's probably going to get taken here, as Linda Rice is acknowledging that she might have made a bad claim. I don't see much speed in this race, so I'm going to try to wire the field and beat this favorite with Powered by Coal (#7). He's a little hard to take based on his 0-for-14 record, but just 4 of those prior starts have come on dirt, and the last couple of dirt races haven't been that bad. He held pretty well after contesting the pace against tougher two back, and last time he was dueling with 4 other horses on the front end before losing position in a race where one was beating the superior Romeo Void. He's dropping into the softest field he's met, and may be able to build some confidence if he gets clear up front.
Thursday, January 22
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
It's hard to look past the three outside runners in this opener, and the most reliable among them is Celestial Glaze (#4). His flaws are pretty obvious – he hasn't won a race since the summer of 2024, and comes into this off 14 consecutive losses. However, he is in great form right now, and is making his first start off the claim for a barn that is very capable with this move. He found a mile to be just a tad too far for him last time when he led into deep stretch and got nailed on the wire. This turnback should suit him. His two main rivals just have major questions to answer. I'm a Gambler (#5) is certainly good enough to win this race, but his dirt ability is unclear. His lone prior dirt attempt came against better a long time ago, and he didn't show much affinity for it, nor is he bred for it. There's a stronger case to be made for Treaty Obligation (#3), who gets needed class relief off a minor layoff. However, he is the first starter for Rudy Rodriguez since his HISA suspension has been lifted, and all of Rudy's runners this week missed a month of workouts from mid-December to mid-January. I'll take the wait-and-see approach with them for now.
RACE 2
Linda Rice sends out a pair of runners in this starter allowance for fillies and mares. The one likely to attract more support is Sheer Will (#3), who just missed at this level last time as the 9-5 favorite. She ran well against a decent field, making a wide bid to lead in upper stretch before getting run down by a stablemate in the final furlong. She has been in great form lately, but I do wonder if we've already seen her ceiling. She improved unexpectedly when she stopped the clock in very fast time beating claimers two back. Now that her form is so exposed, she's going to be a short price and I doubt she has further upside. I prefer Rice's other runner Always Practical (#2), who returns from a bit of a layoff following a victory against $50k conditioned claimers in September. While I generally don't love horses going to the sidelines following wins, this filly has been training pretty consistently during the time away. It would appear that she just had a serious of very minor issues, since she hasn't gone more than two weeks without registering a workout during this time away. Rice also has pretty strong statistics off this kind of break. She is 19 for 70 (27%, $2.03 ROI) off 90 to 180 day layoffs in dirt sprints at NYRA over the last 4 years. Always Practical had run better than it appears at Saratoga when contesting a pace that came apart on July 11 and then chasing the pace going too far out of the Wilson Chute. She put it all together last time against a field that has proven to be even stronger than it seemed at the time. The layoff should ensure a fair price. The other horse to consider is Vanilla (#6), who has won both prior dirt sprints. She got the job done off a layoff last time and may have room for further improvement here. She's the other horse I want to use, but I am mildly concerned that this distance may be too sharp for her, especially without much speed signed on.
RACE 3
Here's another race where a Rudy Rodriguez trained runner is at the center of the discussion. Baron of Sealand (#4) will probably beat this field if he runs back to his previous form. He was hardly disgraced against a tougher field on dirt last time. However, he's another horse who didn't work back for more than a month following that December start due to Rudy's suspension. I'll let him beat me at a short price. There is absolutely no speed in this 9-furlong affair, which might make Awesome Empire (#1) dangerous. The TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts that he's the fastest early, and he has occasionally gotten aggressive rides in the past. Gustavo Rodriguez is particularly dangerous of the claim in dirt routes. Adventurist (#6) is another who may be forward if he's ridden as aggressively as he was two back. His regression last time is a concern, but he is one of the few who clearly wants every bit of this 9-furlong distance. My top pick is Lou (#2), who has some questions to answer going this far, especially without any pace to set him up. However, I do think he's one of the best horses in the race, having consistently met slightly tougher fields at this level. He beat Baron of Sealand when they met in September, and he's held that form against better foes since. He rarely takes much money and should be a square price.
RACE 4
Fast and Frisky (#2) is obviously dangerous making her second start off the claim for Brad Cox and Sandy Goldfarb. She was in too tough against stakes company in her first start for these connections and now gets realistic class relief. I'm not way against her, but I do prefer main rival Sweetest Princess (#4). This mare didn't get the most comfortable trip when she, too, was overmatched in a stakes race last time out. She got sent away from the gate but was outrun to the lead and forced to steady while rating into the turn. She then encountered more traffic in upper stretch before fading going a distance that's too far for her anyway. Her big speed figure two back was flattered by a rail bias, but that was also the only race where she had a fair chance since she's been claimed by Linda Rice. She can rebound dropping in class here.
RACE 5
I went fairly logical in this one as well. Sparkling Mama (#1) is probably the horse to beat after she improved significantly stretching out to this distance last time. She was setting a pretty honest pace and did well to battle on for second behind a superior winner. She now gets Lasix and isn't catching the toughest field for the level. I just slightly prefer main rival Hot Gossip (#7), who ran a race that could win here in her final start for the Brad Cox barn at Churchill last fall. She regressed off the claim for Joe Sharp last time, but she may not have handled synthetic, and she also was conservatively ridden late after going wide on the turns. She figures to rebound getting back on dirt.
RACE 6
Vino Frizzante (#4) is a standout based on her Florida form. She was facing better rivals at the maiden special weight level for the early part of her career, and ran a couple of races last winter at Gulfstream that would easily beat this field, including her maiden score going this distance. I think you just have to be a little concerned about how poorly she ran off the layoff last time, and the fact that she's now dropping in class off the claim for Linda Rice. She isn't catching a tough field for this level, but she's going to be a very short price for a horse with major questions to answer. The only viable alternative that I would want to bet against her is La Gran Artesana (#1). This filly has only run well at Finger Lakes, so she clearly has some things to prove on the NYRA circuit. Yet she was badly overmatched in her first start here last time, facing an open allowance field. She was predictably outrun every step of the way, with her rider doing her no favors by losing so much ground. She has more early speed than that, and figures to show it from the rail here. Seven furlongs seems like an ideal distance, and it appears that she's dropping to the right level this time.
RACE 7
Once again, I was fairly chalky in this spot. The Toy Cannon (#6) is the horse to beat making his first start off the claim for Brad Cox following a blowout maiden score last time. However, Cox is getting this horse from Chad Summers, whose barn has been on fire lately in New York, so I wonder how much he can improve. This horse's biggest advantage is his early speed, since no one in this race seems fast enough to go with him early. I just slightly prefer his main rival Sculcos Folly (#1), who has really improved in his recent starts at Laurel. He ran even better than the 5-length winning margin would suggest when he beat claimers two back, since he overcame a very rough start. Then last time he showed the versatility to rate off dueling leaders before closing in late. He's coming back on short rest, but I like that Dutrow is striking while the iron is hot, a move that's worked for him in the past.
RACE 8
With the Angels (#5) is going to be a handful if she runs back to her Garland of Roses effort, where she had to settle for second behind a loose-on-the-lead winner. There were some talented rivals behind her that day, and she earned the best speed figure of her career to date. Even that number doesn't exactly make her a standout in this field, but you have to respect her consistency and versatility. She's the horse to beat, and there is more speed to set up her late run this time. I just don't think she has that much of a talented edge on her main rival Cupid's Heart (#8). This 7-year-old mare doesn't have as much of an affinity for winning races, having lost 9 in a row on the way into this. However, she has finally figured out how to get out of the starting gate after breaking slowly for much of her career. She's broken from the gate with the field twice in a row now, but both of those races were going a mile. I think she's better at shorter trips, and now she gets to turn back with an advantageous outside post. I've never been her biggest supporter, but I think this could be the right time to bet her. The other horse I considered is Twirling Beauty (#9), who is really the only one I want from that common Dec. 26 race. She was pressing the winner through some honest fractions before fading. She may be set for better in her third start for the Duggan barn.
