TimeformUS Race Analysis
David Aragona posts his picks & plays each live race day.
Friday, April 10
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
This is a tougher field than the thin group Grace and Grit (#4) defeated last month, but it was still encouraging to see her get back to her best form following a sale and trainer switch to Amelia Green. She overcame getting rank early and then squeezing through a tight opening at the quarter pole. She is notoriously difficult to ride, and Jaime Rodriguez should benefit from that experience aboard her. Likely favorite Snide (#1) has earned the two highest figs in the field, and had a legitimate excuse last out when wide against a rail bias. She's a candidate to bounce back here, and her early speed should ensure a good trip. Rice's other runner Vino Frizzante (#5) made an early backstretch move into an honest pace before tiring last time; though, didn't like the way she was veering out in the lane.
RACE 2
No one is particularly trustworthy in this wide open conditioned claimer, but at least Toga d'Oro (#1) has had the excuse of racing over his head ever since breaking his maiden last year. He finally drops to a realistic level while also circling back to his original trainer Rick Dutrow. His form looks pretty ugly, but he was legitimately eased midway through two of his last 3 starts, and still earned competitive figs in the surrounding races. Sir Kartrite (#6) threw in a clunker as the favorite last time. Perhaps he was a little too close to a pace that melted down, but he was still pretty disappointing. His prior form obviously makes him a major player. Thirteen G's (#3) had a legitimate excuse two back when making a mess of the start and getting eased, then caught a speed-biased track last time. He gets class relief, but I would prefer to see him going longer given how sluggish he's been early.
RACE 3
Though it's been a minute since she's won a race, Edistrudis (#3) is probably getting the class relief that she needs. She has faced tougher in both local starts since returning from Oaklawn, and has actually run well in 3 of her 4 NYRA outings. She faded last time, but that was a particularly deep field on the Starter Championship card. She was also too aggressively ridden and should revert to her preferred stalk-and-pounce tactics here. I've never been the biggest fan of Elegant (#6), but must admit she fits well at this level as Linda Rice picks out a softer spot for her. She didn't even run that badly last time considering she failed to make the lead.
RACE 4
Diamond Life (#1) may look slower than a few main rivals, but he primarily shows 2-year-old form. He had little chance in his first couple of starts when chasing home future stakes winners Arctic Beast and Bravaro, then ran well for a tag. He was caught wide against a rail bias when he returned over the winter, and now drops all the way to the bottom. The addition of blinkers should hone his early speed, and I'm expecting a career-best effort. Lough Currane (#5) was also against a bias last time when glued to a dead rail on Jan. 11. He has a tendency to run in stops and starts, and the 3-month break into this raises some questions. Yet he's capable on his best day and should be a decent price. Solutions (#7) would have been odds-on against this field after his debut, but his form really fell apart in two subsequent starts. Perhaps he can rebound on this big class drop, but this placement off the layoff hardly inspires confidence.
RACE 5
This second division of the split fourth race came up slightly weaker. I wasn't thrilled with those who have already competed at the level, so will instead give a shot to the 3-year-old dropper Charlie Charmer (#4). He's been well-beaten in both starts, but he was wide against a rail bias on debut and then had a bit of trip when taken up and shuffled back early last time. He should do better here, especially given the class relief. Killybegs Kid (#2) at least exits a career-best effort. It did come in the mud, but I don't want to nitpick too much in this field. Generally I just didn't want the horses from the eyesore of a Mar. 15 race won by Monte Avi. Winegold (#5) ran the second-best race there, and is relatively unexposed sprinting. So Spirited (#6) is also second off a layoff, but hung badly in that same race.
RACE 6
I couldn't look past the logical favorite in this starter allowance. Wonder Mist (#7) returns to dirt now that Wesley Ward has checked off all the surface and distance boxes. He beat a pretty good one in Pretty Boy Miah, who broke his maiden with an 89 Beyer a couple of starts later. He then ran better than it looks at Turfway after fighting restraint early, but the turnback figures to benefit him. First Blessing (#2) was aided from a good trip when he earned his diploma last time, but he's been steadily improving and can get a piece of this. The Toy Cannon (#4) looks like the speed and is cutting back to an appropriate distance, but I have some doubts that he's as naturally talented as the favorite.
RACE 7
Perhaps Marelow (#7) won't get the respect she deserves as a Parx shipper, but she owns the best form in this race and goes out for a capable barn. She's sprinted recently, but her prior route form suggests that she's just as proficient going longer. This filly finished strongly two back, and last time hit the wire with Mo Attitude, who returned to win at Aqueduct last week with a 64 Beyer. Purpose (#2) gets the most class relief of anyone as she drops out of a series of allowance races, but it's been a while since she's put forth a competitive effort. She obviously fits here, but I wasn't interesting in taking too a short price on her. Scarlet's Dream (#1) has picked up checks in a few starts this winter, but hasn't gotten back to her best form from last year. She needs to do better to win here.
RACE 8
Chad Brown's first time starter Bishop Booming (#6) is an intriguing newcomer, but it's no small feat debuting over a mile on dirt. I can understand why he's been targeted at a dirt route, as he appeared to have a huge stride in his 10 1/5 OBS April workout last year. It's taken him a while to get to the races, but Yaupon is a 19% debut sire and there's a ton of stamina on his dam's side. I had some interest in Chad Brown's other runner Resolute Will (#7) when he made his debut at Tampa off some encouraging workouts, but he just looked lost out there. He was off slowly and then refused to change leads while losing focus in the lane. He is better than that, and has trained well since then. This horse is bred to stretch out, being out of multiple stakes-winning router Nonna Madeline. Chad Brown is also 35 for 104 (34%, $2.34 ROI) with 3-year-old maiden second time starters in dirt routes over 5 years. The more experienced Dr. Sinatra (#2) has failed to progress from an encouraging debut, but may encounter a softer pace up front this time.
Saturday, April 11
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
It's obviously been a while since he's won a race, but Caramel Chip (#3) is finally getting some needed class relief as he drops into this conditioned claimer. He hasn't gotten particularly favorable pace setups in recent starts, and might not get one here. However, he should still be finishing best late and can run these down if Manny Franco keeps him within range of the leaders early. Castle Chaos (#5) is taking an even bigger class drop, having competed against vastly superior rivals in all of his races going back over the last few seasons. He's just no longer the same horse who was second in the 2024 Carter, and this level is probably where he belongs these days. Good Lord (#1) is the most consistent of the main players, and has proven that he fits at the level. Yet he is getting claimed away from a series of pretty sharp trainers.
RACE 2
It might seem like Enduring Spirit (#6) has lost his form for new connections, but he's had his fair share of excuses lately. He got hung extremely wide on Jan. 18, then lost all chance when stumbling badly at the start two back. He got back on track last time with a better effort, and now gets some class relief as he drops back into the conditioned claiming ranks. The outside post should help him work out a trip. Camm' Duke (#3) is the controlling speed, but that's been the case in many prior races and he still struggles to seal the deal. The slight cutback to 6 furlongs should help, but he's a little hard to trust on the win end. Focusyn (#5) would be tough if able to get back to his 2025 form, but he was pretty bad as the favorite last time and this subsequent drop doesn't inspire confidence.
RACE 3
It's hard to strongly endorse anyone in a race that came up quite weak even for this lower level; at least some excuses can be made for the recent poor results by Tapwrits Temper (#5). He was extremely wide last time over a sloppy track he may not have loved, and prior to that was facing slightly tougher down at Oaklawn. His NYRA form from late last year would beat this field, and now he returns as a new gelding picking up Edgard Zayas. Magni (#2) is obviously the horse to beat based on recent form, but he got decent setups in each of his last two starts, and is unlikely to get much pace assistance here. Majestic Arc (#4) is a threat to wire the field if they're aggressive early. A few of his recent efforts aren't so bad, but it's been a long time since he's won a race.
RACE 4
There's a shortage of trustworthy form everywhere you look in this maiden claiming field; I'm copping out by giving preference to the most proven option, Restless Renegade (#6). He exits a decent third at this level in a race that he probably needed off the layoff. He didn't take that much money considering the field and was ridden conservatively. I'm expecting to see Manny Franco be more aggressive here, and that should put him in position to control this up front. Crowbar Artist (#3) is the epitome of a plodder. He has no early speed and just saunters along at one pace. Yet that style could pick up some pieces in a race where so few can be trusted to finish. Chess Match (#1) is the obvious dropdown to take, but he really didn't do that much running on debut and his subsequent workouts hardly inspire confidence. I thought he could be overbet on the assumption of upside that may not exist.
RACE 5
It can be hard to read trainer Rick Dutrow's intentions around the claiming waiver, but it does seem like he occasionally uses it with horses who need starts off layoffs. I'm hoping that's the case with Graywing (#5), who showed speed and stopped twice using the waiver this winter. Now he's finally in for a tag third off the bench, suggesting this might be a target race. He draws better outside so he won't have to be as aggressively used early, and that's important for a horse who can be fainthearted in the stretch. He also picks up Manny Franco, who rides most of the live horses for Rick. Nabokov (#1) beat the top pick last time, but that was the day to have him when he was live getting bet down to 9-1 off dismal form. I'm skeptical he can reproduce that effort. Timaeus (#3) exits the best last-out effort, but he was beating a terrible field at the $10k level, and benefited from getting loose up front. That's unlikely to happen here.
RACE 6
For a compact field, there is a fair amount of pace in here. That may benefit Sunday Boy (#1), who returns from a layoff after breaking his maiden in that lucrative stallion stakes to conclude his 2-year-old campaign. He really came to hand on dirt late last year, and some runbacks suggest that stakes victory is better than the speed figure it was assigned. He may be underrated for this comeback. I just don't fully trust either Sculco's Folly (#5) or Illmatic (#4), who both exit runaway victories with flashy speed figures. Sculcos Folly has benefited from two very favorable pace setups in a row, whereas Illmatic may have been cranked up for his best shipping up from Florida. I have doubts either one will reproduce those recent efforts here, and their similar running styles make it inevitable that they'll hook up at some point early in this race. Plus the two biggest prices drawn inside of them also possess early speed.
RACE 7
Hot Currency (#5) is obviously the one to beat in this Fourstar Crook Stakes. She owns the best string of TimeformUS Speed Figures in the field, cycling up to a standout 102 in her last race. She arguably should have won that day when stuck down on a dead rail. However, now she's been off for three months and may be catching a deceptively tough rival in her return. That primary foe Greek Goddess (#3) ran better than even her solid 88 TimeformUS Speed Figure can convey in her debut race. She was off a step slowly, had to make an early move into contention, and then forged clear in the stretch, all despite racing outside against a rail bias. That inside tilt to the track was especially pronounced on Feb. 6 when she competed. This filly is one of very few to beat the bias that weekend, and she did so emphatically. She's going to be tough to beat if she steps forward on a fair track. There is quite a bit of speed signed on, and maiden Rock Steady Babe (#6) is one of the only viable closers in the field. I would use her underneath.
RACE 8
I couldn’t get creative enough to look past dropdown Chocolatechocolate (#3). Her form has been tailing off lately, but Linda Rice is probably putting her in a spot where she can win. Linda never really got improvement out of this $20k claim and she's finally ready to let someone else take her. I wouldn't be too hard on her for the last effort since she might not like a sloppy, sealed track. Eleni (#5) was wide against a rail bias on Feb. 14 and ran slightly better last time. She's not impossible if she takes another small step forward. Itwillbefun (#8) is the trip horse from that race, since she made a bit late run after blowing the start. However, I'm not sure she's a trip horse you necessarily want to bet bet back, since this filly has gate issues almost every time and can be a nightmare to ride.
