TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

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RACE 1

Munnings Express (#6) hasn't finished out of the exacta in six consecutive starts despite moving up the class ladder. She now moves up again to face open company for the first time. She's the horse to beat off her last effort, a 5-length romp, but it wasn't a particularly strong field for the level. I prefer main rival Paula's a Star (#2), who returns from a lengthy layoff dating back to last summer at Saratoga. She did win off a similar layoff when she returned for her 3-year-old campaign last year, and was a vet scratch in February, so she's apparently been ready to run for a while. I expect her to show up with one of her better efforts, and that should be good enough to win against this group.

RACE 2

I'm not getting too creative with a top pick here. Porosity (#2) has been excellent since returning from a layoff for Linda Rice last fall. He's won 3 out of 4 and had a legitimate excuse in his lone loss during that stretch when chasing wide against a rail bias in November. He beat a pretty strong N1X field last time, and now he isn't catching a particularly tough group as he steps up another level. The only major concern is his lack of early speed, but there are a couple of pace factors in this race that should provide him with enough of a setup. I don't trust Resilience (#5) turning back, especially if he's a short price. 

RACE 3

I'm not trying to beat morning line favorite Classicist (#4) in this Excelsior. It's hardly the strongest edition of this race, and Classicist feels like one of the few horses in the field that still has upside in his future. I had noted after his victory in September that he looked like a horse who needed blinkers, since he had shown a tendency to wait on his competition in both wins. The connections had to wait for him to lose to add that equipment, and the horse obliged last time while still running well behind today's rival Yo Daddy (#6). Both weren't quite with the track profile in that Feb. 4 affair, since the rail was golden. However, Yo Daddy did spend a bit more time inside early whereas Classicist was 2- to 3-wide throughout. The Pletcher runner fought gamely to the wire that day. I like that he's worked consistently since then and is finally putting races back to back. I expect him to turn the tables on Yo Daddy and win here.

RACE 4

This race opens up after the scratch of likely favorite Fact, but I now scratch into the horse who will almost certainly inherit favoritism. Tariff Mindset (#4) was green on debut and won anyway. He's probably better than the speed figure that he was assigned that day, and I think he'll run well here. He probably won't be much of a price now, but I wasn't that interested in the others. Founders (#7) ran well when switching back to dirt last time at Gulfstream, but he did hang a bit in the late stages. I wonder if he'll get the pace he needs up front.

RACE 5

This race loses most of its wagering appeal after scratching down to just 4 horses. Early On (#7) becomes the one to beat after she got a needed confidence boost when she finally dropped back in against state-bred company last time, but she is facing a tougher field than last time. I prefer one alternative to this favorite. Sweetest Princess (#4) tried tougher last time and didn't run one of her better races. However, she didn't get the best trip, glued to the inside with nowhere to go for much of her journey. She can win here if she runs back to the effort two back at this same level. She beat a couple of common rivals that day, and I think she can get a similar outside stalking trip here.

RACE 6

I'm hardly against Book'em Danno (#2), who I believed was a deserving sprint champion last season. However, it is fair to question some of the flashy speed figures he earned when assessing the True North and A. G. Vanderbilt in retrospect. The form from both of those races hasn't exactly held up, so I'm not expecting this gelding to get back to those numbers here. He's also coming off a layoff, and Derek Ryan is 0 for 19 with just 2 hitting the board off 180+ day layoffs over 5 years. I do prefer him to main rival Rated by Merit (#5), who can't seem to stay on the racetrack. He obviously has a ton of talent, but is also quirky. He was getting goofy in the late stages of that Discovery, and has shown that same tendency and awkward head carriage in a few of his recent workouts. He's not for me. I'll take a small shot against the favorite with Point Dume (#1). It's not guarantee that he'll be able to transfer his Laurel form to this circuit, but those race did come up legitimately fast. He's supposed to be speed from the rail, he loves 7 furlongs, and he's in razor sharp form right now. That's enough to convince me on the likely third choice.

RACE 7

Among the shorter prices, I wasn't terribly interested in Blenheim Baby (#8) or That's Funny (#11). I slightly prefer the latter, who had a bit of a trip last time, but her lack of early speed is a concern. My top pick is Mitole's Girl (#3), who had a legitimate excuse for her last race when she was chasing wide against a rail bias. Her effort two back certainly puts her in the mix, and the trainer switch away from Cox should drive up the price.

RACE 8

The late Pick 5 kicks off with one of the most wide open races of the day. You can make legitimate cases for every horse in this field. The horse to beat might be Willintoriskitall (#9), but followers of this circuit surely know that he was aided by a rail bias in that victory two back. He did run well against tougher last time, but I see some other pace in here to keep him company up front. The closer I want is Turn and Count (#8), though his quirks make him pretty hard to trust. He wants to lug in as badly as any horse on this circuit, which makes it very difficult for his riders to work out a trip. Last time Santana let him drift to the rail early and he just seemed to get discouraged down there. He seems to do best when his riders keep him wide for most of the race, and Jaime Rodriguez should have a chance to do that from this post. 

RACE 9

I don't have any major knocks against Incentive Pay (#2). He showed class as a 2-year-old and stepped forward with a career-best speed figure in his return from a lengthy layoff last time. He should move forward off that race, but that expectation is going to be built into his price. He's the most likely winner, but not exactly an appealing wagering proposition. I considered new face Sansone (#1), who impressively broke his maiden last time. However, he is stepping way up in class. I'm hoping some of those shippers take money, because I think the proven local horse Pair of Socks (#3) fits very well with this group. He has gained consistency that he formerly lacked since the claim by Linda Rice. He was right there with stablemate Porosity at the finish of that fast Jan. 3 starter race, and last time he was a little unlucky when not getting Jose Lezcano's finest ride at this level. I expect him to rebound here, as his tactical speed should play well in this field.

RACE 10

With three scratches expected, this field will go forward with at most 5 runners. Immersive (#7) is obviously the horse to beat as a former champion, but she'll be turning back to a sprint for the first time since her 2-year-old season. I really didn't love her final couple of efforts last year, as even her win in the Seneca hasn't exactly aged that well. Perhaps sprinting will work for her, but it's a little strange that Cox is cutting her back since he isn't one to shy away from running in routes off a layoff. I prefer a couple of alternatives. One of those is Jody's Pride (#3), who may have just lost her best form. However, I can make excuses for several of her recent races. She was in over her head and got a wide trip in the First Lady, and last time was probably on the wrong part of the track at Gulfstream. I'm using her, but the horse I really want to bet here is Hold Your Breath (#6). There isn't that much speed left in here, especially after scratches, and she figures to be in a controlling position on the front end. She obviously ran a race that can win here in the Garland of Roses, and I won't be too hard on her for the last effort at Laurel. Both of this filly's NYRA starts have been excellent, and John Servis usually means business when he ships here.

RACE 11

I have some concerns about Paradise (#1) handling the added distance of this Gazelle. A two-turn 1 1/8 miles can be demanding at Aqueduct, and I'm just not convinced that stamina is this filly's best asset. Her dam Venetian Harbor was Grade 1-placed going as far as 1 1/16 miles, but she was really more of a sprinter/miler. Paradise's physicality and stride pattern suggest that she will have distance limitations at some point. Between the two likely favorites, I prefer Pashmina (#6), who has proven her ability to go two turns against some decent competition. She was never winning the Sunland Park Oaks last time, but she did have to steady in the stretch and the form was flattered when the winner returned to take down the Virginia Oaks. Looking for horses who want the distance, I even gave a long look to the maiden Slow Kara (#9), who has a pedigree suggesting she wants to run all day. She also races like that, just plodding along at one pace. She kept good company in her maiden races, but still must improve to be a win threat here. The horse I want to bet is Nycon (#3), who I like to turn the tables on the favorite who beat her last time. This filly has stamina all over her pedigree. She's by Nyquist out of a dam produced from the Personal Ensign/My Flag family, a proven stamina influence. One 3/4-sister won going 1 1/2 miles on turf, and another half-sister was a proven two-turn dirt horse. She galloped out ahead of Paradise in the Busher last time, and I think she's going to outstay her on the stretch-out this time.

RACE 12

The two likely favorites bookend the Wood Memorial field and each has obstacles to overcome. Iron Honor (#13) will be attempting two turns for the first time as he stretches out beyond a mile. He's done nothing wrong in his two prior victories, but I have some doubts about his ability to continue his progression over longer distances. He will need to be proficient going this far since he's likely to endure a wide trip from his far outside post position. Napoleon Solo (#1) has similar stamina questions to answer after he showed speed and faded in his initial two-turn attempt off a layoff in the Fountain of Youth. He is getting back to the site of his most impressive victory, a runaway win in the Champagne last year, but he figures to be under the gun from his rail draw. I want to look beyond the favorites. Courting (#8) should have no problem handling the distance, but he still has to prove he has the mental fortitude to navigate a trip in a large field of stakes horses. He seemed unfocused en route to a fourth-place finish in the Remsen last year, and was never seriously involved off a layoff in the Risen Star. He's probably better than those results, but he needs to put it all together on Saturday. Many handicappers seem eager to dismiss Talk to Me Jimmy (#2), who romped to an 11-length Withers upset over this course and distance. The Aqueduct track was favoring inside position that afternoon, but Talk to Me Jimmy only got over to the rail in the second half of that race. He apparently relished the added distance, and horses have returned from that race to flatter the form. I'm not so sure the effort was a fluke, and he figures to be a fair price again. The only drawback is that he will have to deal with Napoleon Solo on the front end. The horse I want to bet is Albus (#7). He obviously has something to prove at this level after defeating a much weaker field at Tampa Bay Downs when he broke his maiden last time. However, he finished off that race by drawing away with big, powerful strides, looking like a horse who should want every bit of this 1 1/8-mile distance. He was still figuring out his running style in his first couple of starts as a 2-year-old, but he's obviously progressed since then. Riley Mott has good statistics with horses stepping up into stakes off maiden wins, and I expect him to outrun his odds in the Wood Memorial.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

Perhaps it's unwise to look beyond the two favorites in this race because the others all have pretty significant knocks against them. However, it's not like these two shortest prices are exactly reliable either. Gran Judgment (#2) has never run on dirt, and while she did face a better field in her synthetic debut I don't have a ton of confidence that she'll run as well on this surface. She's in here to get claimed, suggesting the connections don’t have terribly high hopes for her. Khali's Storm (#6) was scratched a couple of weeks ago and runs here instead. She has the best prior races in this field, but she's 0 for 13 and has needed a start off layoffs in the past. I'm going to try to get Combatant's Song (#1) to improve enough to beat the two favorites. She's had some excuses, since she was wide against a rail bias on debut, then caught a sloppy track, and last time was taken up after the start. She seems primed to run a career-best race here and I don't mind the switch to Dalila Rivera, since she now gets 13 pounds from one of her main rivals.

RACE 2

Upon reassessing this race after scratches, I'm not trying to beat Mercilesanihilator (#4). It might seem like he's had his chances and disappointed since the claim by Linda Rice. Yet this stretch-out in distance could change the narrative around him. Reviewing his replays reveals that he has a lengthy stride and slower stride cadence, and those types of horses sometimes have to expend too much energy to keep up going shorter. He's certainly bred to stretch out with stamina influences all over his pedigree. Linda Rice is a pretty solid 15 for 56 (27%, $1.84 ROI) with non-maidens trying a dirt route for the first itme. Raging Sea Captain (#2) was pretty impressive for the level when he broke his maiden going this distance. He didn't break well and made a big move in the first half of the race to take over. He was simply overmatched last time but also wide against the rail bias, and now he's dropping down to the right level. I would use him under the top pick, along with Lucky Larry (#6), whose Parx form certainly fits here.

RACE 3

This will be an interesting race to watch, but I don't have a strong recommendation for a bet. The three likely favorites all seem legitimate, and none of them figure to be particularly interesting prices. Who's Your Zaddy (#4) does get some extra credit for racing wide against the rail bias last time, but he was also a little green through the lane, reacting to the crop. Judge Boushay (#3) is the main rival after finishing well for third in a Feb. 28 sprint. He ran pretty well after overcoming a slow start, closing into third in a race dominated by a superior winner. He's bred to go longer, and Eric Cancel tends to give his best rides for the Chad Brown barn.

RACE 4

It's mostly guesswork in this maiden affair, as the top contenders are all first time starters. The experienced Smart Sugar (#3) isn't impossible, but I figured one of the firsters would prove to be superior. Asset Light (#1) seems like the better meant of the two Chad Brown runners, and she's certainly bred to win early even though there's some turf on the dam's side. (That's a theme among all four debutantes.) The one who may take the most money is Lights Out Leni (#4), who has been working well down in Florida for Chad Summers. This daughter of Speightstown seems quick, but she has to get 6 1/2 furlongs on debut. I put Jet Mist (#5) on top since she figures to be the best price of the expected live firsters. Carlos Martin isn't known for winning on debut, but he can do so on occasion. That $220k price tag is a lot to pay for a progeny of Frosted, but she has some good speed and win-early pedigree on the dam's side. The workouts suggest there's ability here.

RACE 5

I'm not going to make too strong of a push for anyone in this spot. Yolo (#5) is the horse to beat based on her runner-up finish at this level two back. I normally wouldn't care too much about her poor effort at Turfway last time, but she did run well over that track earlier in her career. I do wonder if she was cranked to win off the bench and may be going backwards now. Her main rivals are all 3-year-olds who haven't run as fast. Flee (#2) finished decently last time and may appreciate stretching out to a mile. I instead went with Icy Legs (#7), who already has plenty of experience going this far. She didn't run well last time, but at was a deceptively strong field for the level. She performed best for apprentice Dalila Rivera two back, and she gets back on board here. The Jose Jimenez barn was also pretty live last week.

RACE 6

The two Ilkay Kantarmaci runners appear to be the controlling speeds in this race, and might be the two best horses anyway. Spirit of Esther (#7) is the more logical of the pair, but she never wins and has lost some races she should have won at short prices. I'm hoping that Tammy's Cruiser (#5) is the one who gets sent to the front since she's drawn inside of her stablemate, and maybe Spirit of Esther will just be reluctant to go by. This mare has run reasonably well going longer in the past even though she hasn't tried it in a while.

RACE 7

I don't have a major knock against likely favorite Playa Del Mar (#4). He obviously has compiled a body of work that makes him the horse to beat, especially if he can get back to any of his better races for the Bill Mott barn. However, he's gone through the claim box a couple of times since then and his form appears to be tailing off slightly. He didn't run that well two back when he was sluggish despite spending time on the rail. He was racing over a speed-biased track last time out, but I still wanted to see him put up more of a fight as the favorite. Now he's going out for Linda Rice off the claim, but that will only drive down his price. Rice's other entrant Antietam (#6) just broke his maiden last time out, but he wasn't beating the strongest field. On the other hand, he is improving with each start since the claim by Rice, and it's interesting that her preferred rider Jose Lezcano lands on this horse instead of the favorite. My top pick is Egyptian (#5). He's primarily been competing at lower levels than this, but I like the confidence being displayed as he moves up in class off the claim for Rick Dutrow, Jr. This barn obviously has strong statistics with new acquisitions, and I think this horse has run better than it might appear in a few prior starts. He didn't get the best ride last time when the jockey overcommitted to the rail path, getting glued to the inside waiting for room in traffic. Not only is Dutrow taking over the trainer, but he now gets a significant jockey upgrade to leading New York rider Manny Franco.

RACE 8

I'm not thrilled with the two horses who I have as the first and second choices on the morning line. Skylander (#2) owns some of the best overall form, but I wonder if he's going to maintain his condition since getting claimed by Wayne Potts, whose barn has gone colder in the last couple of months. Brew Pub (#7) had his chance to win last time and was no match for winner Hey Toby. Texas Red Hot (#6) just picked up pieces for second, but did run a little better in that same race. He's a possibility if pace develops. Horses like Aleah Aleah (#3) and Sagamore Mischief (#5) could ensure they go quickly up front, and that's a concern for my top pick. However, I don't trust either of those speeds, and I do think Bar Fourteen (#4) has had some legitimate excuses in his recent starts. He was simply in over his head at the $25k level two back, and last time he found himself chasing wide against the rail bias while Aleah Aleah was glued to the rail. It wasn't that long ago that he was running speed figures that would beat this field, and now he's back in a realistic spot. I don't know if he can win rating or if he neve needs to, but I'll find out at what should be a decent price.