TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

My primary opinion in this race is that I didn't want to just default to the Linda Rice runners. Kadena (#6) has the stronger overall resume, but she has been mildly disappointing since running well first off the claim for this barn back at Saratoga. She's now dropping in for a tag, and at least is drawn well outside. She's just going to be a very short price with Flavien Prat aboard. Rice's other runner Chocolatechocolate (#3) exits the same race but didn't run quite as well last time. Both should appreciate cutting back in distance. I just had interest in a couple of alternatives. One of those is Howling Wind (#5), who has been improving with each start since her return from a layoff. She actually did well to make up ground into a speed bias two back, and last time she stayed on well for third against a tough field. She should get the preferred outside trip over a track that has featured a dead rail. The inside post is a concern for my top pick Moonlight Gal (#1), who has to get off the rail. I just think she has upside returning from a layoff first off the claim for Chris Englehart. She's found a good spot where she can be protected by the waiver, and it appears that she has plenty of foundation for this return. She beat a decent field when she broke her maiden last February, and should be capable of better with routine improvement.

RACE 2

I'll be interested to see what the bettors do with Heavenly Light (#3), who returns from a lengthy layoff dating back to last winter. She is going out for very sharp connections, but Brad Cox's runners tend to get bet in these situations and I wouldn't want to take too short a price on her. The presence of Flavien Prat will only attract more support her way, and she still has to prove that she has taken a step forward during the time away. She's also a horse that showed some hanging tendencies when last seen a year ago, and she has to get over that. Sassafrassness (#1) is probably the horse to beat based on recent form, and can win this race if she merely runs back to the last effort. I don't love that she's run some of her fastest speed figures at Delaware Park, since form doesn't always translate away from that track. Yet she did show up with a strong effort here last time. Linda Rice has a couple of runners in here. I'm not a big fan of recent Kentucky acquisition Brunch With Amy (#2), who appeared to have trouble getting this distance when she had tried it previously. I don't love the way her form tailed off when she left the Peter Eurton barn last fall, and I have some reservations as she makes her NYRA debut. I much prefer Rice's other horse Big Air (#6), who is drawn well outside as a stalking type. You wanted to avoid the rail path at all costs on Thursday's card at Aqueduct, and this filly should get the right trip from her wide draw. She tailed off a bit into the fall when still in Jamie Ness's barn, but I thought she rebounded when first off the claim for Linda Rice last time. She chased outside and was clearly second behind a lightly raced winner who might have been above par for that level. Linda Rice has great statistics second off the claim, especially with horses that she owns. She is 23 for 87 (26%, $2.17 ROI) with that move, and 10 for 39 (26%, $2.97 ROI) in routes within that sample.

RACE 3

My primary take on this race is that none of the locally-based options do much for me, so I want the two Parx shippers. I prefer Truthorconsequence (#2), who looks like the main speed as she drops in class. She faced much better foes two back and last time was setting a fast pace that collapsed. Notably, another pacesetter from that Nov. 24 race was 7th-place finisher Casilda, who came to the NYRA circuit and beat a couple of these rivals on Dec. 10. I think she's the horse to beat, but I do worry about her running style over this track, which has played to closers for about a week. If the track is playing the same way, it could suit the other Parx shipper Mo Attitude (#5), who finished ahead of Truthorconsequence on Nov. 24, and that was her return from a significant layoff. She had come to hand last winter before going to the sidelines following her maiden win. She figures to get the right trip from off the pace, and I don't think she has to be as far back as she was last time.

RACE 4

I suppose Magical Ways (#6) will be tough to beat if he runs back to any of his prior NYRA races for Rudy Rodriguez, but he's hard to trust after putting in a disappointing effort at Laurel last time. Rob Atras takes over the suspended Rudy and drops him in for a tag. There are red flags, and it's not as if this horse was a win machine even when he was in top form. There does appear to be a fair amount of early speed in this race with the three runners drawn inside all wanting to get forward position. House United (#7) was too close to the pace last time and was unable to finish against a better field. I think he can bounce back here getting some minor class relief and rating from an advantageous outside post. He has to overcome a losing streak, but I do think he's landing in the right spot. My top pick is Exploration (#5), who should also be rallying from off the pace. He's also getting minor class relief first off the claim for Linda Rice. I can't say that I love any of his recent efforts, but he has been mildly compromised by paces and trips. He failed his lone prior attempt at a mile, but this son of Curlin should be able to handle the distance, and Rice excels with stretch-outs.

RACE 5

There isn't much to say here. It would be a shock if anyone outside of the two favorites won. Asking (#5) has achieved the slightly better results, but I haven't seen her improve much even as she's dropped down the class ladder. I prefer So Vain (#6), who faced much better rivals in her only prior dirt start. She's getting class relief that she needs and she should appreciate stretching out on dirt as a daughter of McKinzie.

RACE 6

Malthea (#5) is the horse to beat after improving when stretched out to a mile last time. She had run on belatedly in her debut, but was far more engaged last time. She made an early move into contention down the backstretch after stumbling at the start. She flattened out a bit at the end, but still beat some common rivals handily. She'll be tough with another step forward. R U Bluffing (#3) shouldn't mind stretching out distance, since her dam is a full-sister to multiple stakes-winning router Mr. Buff. I do wish she had finished a bit better in her two prior sprints, but she may play out as the controlling speed here. It just remains to be seen if that's any kind of advantage over this track. I prefer Imnobodysfool (#4), who stretches out an extra furlong in her second career start. She was facing a weaker field on debut, but I liked the way she finished, striding out nicely in the last quarter before galloping out strongly. She's bred to route, and goes out for an underrated barn.

RACE 7

The major players in this conditioned claimer all possess early speed. I don't want any part of Elegant (#2), who rode a speed bias when she won last time. Both Moon Gate (#5) and Majestic Return (#8) are more appealing dropping down, but they each have some things to prove if Elegant is sent hard to the front. Neither one has ever done well rating off another horse. I think this pace could come apart, so I prefer Linarite (#4). I know she's more of a turf horse, but she really hasn't run that badly in her prior dirt starts. She finished less than a length behind Moon Gate last time despite going very wide on the far turn. She now takes blinkers off, and it's Eric Cancel's style to take these types back and make one wide run. Those tactics should fit this race, especially if the track is playing as it was yesterday.

RACE 8

The two logical favorites aren't exactly winning types, but have a significant class advantage. Kavanaugh (#2) is taking the bigger drop down from the $50k level, where he was simply overmatched against tougher rivals. He did well to finally break his maiden tow back, battling back when challenged by the heavy favorite in deep stretch. He's logical here, but I don't think he's that much better than Fever Night (#6), who also gets some class relief after facing better horses in his prior starts for Linda Rice. His last race looks pretty disappointing at first glance, but he was stuck inside on a dead rail, which negatively impacted his performance. I think he's better than that, Rice does very well when she brings horses back on short rest. I just have one alternative idea at a bigger price. Whitby (#3) was ridden like a horse who just needed a race off the layoff last time. Kendrick Carmouche handled him pretty conservatively throughout, but he was finishing with interest under only mild pressure late. He has a lot more tactical speed than he displayed that day. I expect him to move forward with that start under his belt, and he does have a couple of prior efforts that would put him in the mix. Perhaps this spot will prove too tough if both favorites show up with their top efforts, but I think Whitby could be the one with upside.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

I'm mildly against the Linda Rice pair in this maiden claiming opener. Noguchi (#6) figures to take money based on his runner-up finish at this level last time, but he benefited from an inside draw and favorable race flow. I still have some questions about his overall quality. I would rather take Thorness (#1) out of that Nov. 23 race since he was ridden very conservatively. He showed improved speed last time before fading to third, but that form was flattered when pace rival Sequential came back to win against tougher. At his best, Rice's other runner Come to Papa (#4) has shown more talent, but he's awfully hard to trust as he exits an uncharacteristically poor effort last time. It's also difficult to overlook his 0 for 18 career record. My top pick is Magnanimous Max (#3), who drops from the $50k maiden claiming level and stretches back out. I don't mind him going longer, since he was initially targeted at a one-mile race on debut last year. He didn't get an ideal trip last time, losing some position on the far turn before getting caught in kickback behind a wall of horses in upper stretch. Brad Cox is 19 for 49 (39%, $2.12 ROI) with maidens dropping in claiming price by 50% or more on dirt over 5 years.

RACE 2

Purple and Gold (#2) is likely to be a heavy favorite as she steps up against winners off her 10-length maiden score. She's catching a pretty weak field, even for this $20k level, but I do still have some concerns. That was another weak group that she defeated last time, and she took advantage of a speed bias in doing so. I have serious reservations about her stretching out based on pedigree and physicality, but Linda Rice does have strong statistics with these types. One alternative to consider is Autumn's Turn (#4), who also exits a maiden victory. It did take her 27attempts to get that maiden diploma, and she got a slow speed figure in doing so. Yet the Wayne Potts barn has been surprisingly live in recent weeks. I'll instead take my chances with Heavens Lee (#6), who switches back to dirt for the first time since early in her career. She looks like more of a turf horse at first glance, but she really improved in the overall sense when she surprisingly broke her maiden at 40-1 last time. She displayed newfound early speed and kept finding more up front. Her dam was a 13-time dirt winner, so I don't mind her going back to this surface, and she may just be an improved horse now.

RACE 3

Romantic Dancer (#5) is getting some minor class relief after meeting a tougher field at this level just 13 days ago. No one in that field was in the same league as runaway winner Lucille Ball, who looks bound for stakes races soon. Yet Romantic Dancer did stay on well for second after rating behind a moderate early pace. Speed appeared to be an advantage on that Jan. 2 card, so she deserves credit for passing horses. However, now she lands in a small field which could feature another slow pace, so Manny Franco will have to work out a trip. Linda Rice sends out a pair of contenders, led by recent acquisition Atarah (#3). She was beating a weaker starter allowance field when she won first off the claim for Rice last time. That race didn't get much of a speed figure, but the slow early pace held down the final number. Rice is 22 for 83 (27%, $2.29 ROI) second off the claim with last-out winners on dirt, so it would be no surprise if this filly took another step forward for the barn. Roman Grace (#4) was running races that would make her highly competitive with this group during her 3-year-old season in 2024. Little has gone right for her since then, as she was off the board in a pair of starts at Oaklawn last winter before again going to the sidelines. Yet she didn't have ideal trips in either of those starts. She got shuffled back in traffic coming to the quarter pole off the layoff last January, and then she was steadied in the early stages of her last race before getting hung wide. She now returns from a layoff switching into the barn of Amelia Green, who has done well with new acquisitions. Green is also 2 for 6 in sprints first off a trainer switch and layoff of at least 6 months. Those two winners went off as 12-1 and 10-1.

RACE 4

I'm not getting too creative here. Lost Horizon (#6) showed promise in her two prior races last summer, chasing home future Grade 1 Test runner-up Ragtime on debut before not getting an ideal trip when she stretched all the way out to 9 furlongs last time. She got steadied early and had to rally through tight quarters inside of horses. She's not catching the toughest maiden field for this return and Chad Brown has strong statistics off layoffs like this. The others don't do much for me. Formaggio (#3) may be the controlling speed, but she's exiting some much weaker races than this one. I would prefer Raghba (#2) and Trango Tower (#7) underneath.

RACE 5

Leading Role (#6) is the one to beat as he drops in class down to this $12,500 level after facing an unusually tough field of $20k conditioned claimers last time. He dueled through some honest fractions and came up empty late. It was a solid effort, and he would be tough if able to bounce back to the winning form he displayed two back. I'm just not sure that he ran any better than Panagiotis (#4), his pace rival from that Jan. 3 race. The Dimitrios Synnefias runner was wider chasing on the turn and was staying on a bit better in the late stages as they both tired. There isn't as much speed in here, and these two could dominate affairs up front. I wish Airbone Elite (#3) had shown even the slightest interest in competing last time, since he has prior form that would crush this field. It appears that he's fallen apart, but Wayne Potts runners have been showing up lately.

RACE 6

The legitimate favorite and horse to beat is Systemic Change (#5). He has been in great form for a couple of different barns lately, running especially well in his first start off the claim for Mike Maker last time. He can be somewhat pace dependent, but he loves this one-turn mile distance and appears to be the most reliable option. My primary opinion in this race is that I want no part of main rival Feeling Woozy (#2), who got loose on a comfortable lead last time and drew off by 11 lengths. He's not going to get that same trip here with other speed to his outside. He's also generally been much more effective in two-turn races, which feature slower paces, than prior one-turn attempts. Layoff runner Stolen Base (#8) does offer some appeal making his first start off the claim for Brad Cox. He is protected for the waiver, but I don't fully trust him going a mile off the bench. Nothing clever for me in this one.

RACE 7

If Mad Banker (#8) can transfer his mid-Atlantic form to the NYRA circuit, he is going to be tough for this field to handle. While he hasn't won in his last 8 starts, he has faced some tough rivals along the way while earning multiple speed figures that put him a notch above his competition. I just find it hard to overlook the fact that his prior forays to the NYRA circuit, especially since joining the Jamie Ness barn, didn't go nearly as well. He can win, but I wouldn't bet him at a short price. Mo for the King (#7) looks like the main speed as he makes his first start off the claim for Rob Falcone. I don't like that he's also lost 8 in a row, but he appears to class up well with this group. I want to bet This Time Yes (#4). He won't be as high as the 53-1 he got dismissed at last time, but he should still be a square price going out for Finger Lakes-based connections. He had been subtly improving since the claim last year at his home base, and he carried that forward to produce a career-best effort getting back to the NYRA circuit last time. He was never a threat to win the race, but he stayed on well for fourth against a tougher field than this one. I don't mind him stretching back out to a mile here.