TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

It's hard to look past the two likely favorites in this opener. Both Fort Nelson (#3) and Rule Sixty Two (#4) are dropping out of vastly more competitive races at the allowance level. I slightly prefer the tactical speed of the former even though his recent efforts make him pretty tough to trust. He's been gelded since his last race, and seems like the kind of horse that gets discouraged when he's outrun to the early lead. That's unlikely to happen here with just three rivals signed on, two of which aren't very fast early. Rule Sixty Two is more reliable, but his lack of early speed could be a slight disadvantage in this small field.

RACE 2

I wasn't thrilled with any of the options that own recent form. Among those, Lady Delilah (#4) appears to be most reliable after finishing second at this level last time. However, I prefer her going shorter, and I thought others had far more upside. Therefore I'm left with a choice among three fillies coming off layoffs. Both Full Pour (#1) and Eagle Rising (#6) last raced against each other in the same pair of maiden races last April and May before each went to the sidelines. They traded decisions in those spots, though I felt that Eagle Rising ran slightly better on both occasions, paying the price for attacking quick paces. Either one could win, but I didn't want to settle for too short a price given the layoffs. I'll instead give the slight nod to Our Preferred Pal (#2), who ran better than both of those rivals on May 16, hanging on for second after setting an honest pace. She also wasn't disgraced behind a runaway winner at Saratoga, as fellow pace player Lady Angelina has come back to improve in subsequent starts. She had trouble at the start last time and has obviously had issues since then (scratched due to unsoundness in November). Yet she's not catching a tough field for her return, and I find her to be the most trustworthy option.

RACE 3

Horses racing first off the claim for Brad Cox generally take plenty of action on this circuit. That's why I made Cararra (#3) such a short price on the morning line even though her form hardly makes her a standout in this field. Not only has Cox claimed her, but she's been picked up by one of his most successful ownership groups, and she's getting a rider switch to Flavien Prat. All of those changes should result in her being an underlay. She can win this race with some improvement, there are a few speed figures in her past that would make her formidable if she could get back to them. I just don't want to bet on that proposition given the price. Between the two fillies exiting that Nov. 28 race for a $30k tag, I prefer Shadyside (#6), who had a tougher trip than Cararra. Shadyside was shuffled back from her inside post soon after the start, losing valuable position before making a wide move on the far turn to eventually rally into second. That was her return from a lengthy layoff, and she should improve in her second start back. She also gets Lasix for the first time, and is drawn much more favorably outside here. I'm using that filly, but my top pick is Ready for Trouble (#5), who is already proven at or above this class level. She has tried to get a mile in two of her last three starts, but she clearly wants no part of that distance, just unable to produce her typical late kick. She should appreciate turning back second off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci, who generally does better with sprinters anyway. She was hardly disgraced when facing a better field of open claimers two back, and even that 7-furlong distance was pushing her stamina to the limit. It doesn't hurt to pick up the talented apprentice Yedsit Hazlewood as she returns on relatively short rest, and she should be a fair pace setup.

RACE 4

My primary opinion in this race is that I'm against Echo in Eternity (#6), who figures to take money based on past form. She did get back to the winner's circle for Linda Rice two back, but I generally don't like horses claimed away from that barn at this time of year. She disappointed as the favorite last time, and now she's catching a wet track, which she's never appreciated before. Problematica (#1) should rebound first off the claim for Wayne Potts, whose barn has been hot lately. I don't think she's run that well in her recent starts, but she didn't get the best ride last time when unable to get forward after an awkward start. She's getting a significant upgrade to Yedsit Hazlewood here. Even Jackie the Joker (#4) is a candidate to rebound getting back on a wet track, but only if it's sealed since those surfaces have moved her up in the past. My top pick is Maggie T (#7), who didn't get the best ride last time when Chris Elliott guided her inside on the turn and then got locked into a pocket for the entire stretch drive. She was clear late, but just didn't seem like she wanted to go thorugh a tight spot inside the winner. She's gotten back into decent form for Lolita Shivmangal, who is due to pick up this winter.

RACE 5

I'm not thrilled with the two second time starters who figure to take money towards the inside. Slay Sadie Slay (#2) was facing a better field on debut and stayed on mildly for fourth. She has a right to move forward for Rick Dutrow, who does have good statistics with second time starters. I just thought she'd be overbet with Flavien Prat aboard. Frankie Cofeecake (#3) is dropping out of maiden special weight company, but that was a race at Parx. He did get a wide trip, but I thought he was just picking up pieces as the race came apart late. I'll instead go with first time starter Mitolegayne (#6), who is well spotted in his debut for Chris Englehart. I liked his gallop at the Fasig-Tipton sale last year, and he appears to be working forwardly for this debut. There's some pedigree on the dam's side for him to be a runner, and he's eligible to be protected in this spot. The other horse for me is Two Ducks (#7), who clearly wanted no part of a mile last time. I do think he's more of a turf horse, but he deserves a chance sprinting after chasing an honest pace last time. He should finally be a fair price as well.

RACE 6

This race doesn't hold much appeal for me after the scratch of the horse I had originally picked. Now I scratch into likely favorite Remi's Moon (#6), who should sit a good stalking trip just off likely speed Looms Boldly (#7). I don't fully trust Looms Boldly to get 7 furlongs over a fair racetrack, and Remi's Moon is likely to benefit from the slight cutback after trying to get a mile against tougher competition last time. Some may go to the recent Linda Rice claim Lotsa Trouble (#3), but I don't like that Linda is bringing him back at the same $25k level after he won last time, and his lack of early speed is a major disadvantage in this field.

RACE 7

The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario favoring the frontrunner, which could make Carvellian Quest (#5) dangerous as the likely speed. I thought there were a couple that could press him early, and it's not as if he's some need-the-lead type. He just has to get back to the winner's circle after losing 11 consecutive races including all of his starts since the claim by Horacio De Paz. He is getting minor class relief and finds himself in a favorable scenario but I wouldn't want to take too short a price here. Epitaph (#2) is one that could press the pace from the inside, and he is mildly interesting based purely on the trainer switch angle. I just have some doubts about him getting 7 furlongs. Enduring Spirit (#7) was successful going this distance three back with a very good setup, and he was in a tough spot without much pace two back. I don't love his last race, but he probably didn't want to go a mile. He's spotted well first off the claim for new connections. My top pick is Tarpaulin (#6), who is working his way back into form after a scary incident that saw him fall over a stricken rival two back. He rebounded pretty well last time at a higher level, rallying belatedly after an awkward start. Another closer from that race, Captain Jax Sparrow, came back to win this week and Tarpaulin does possess more tactical speed than he showed last time. He hasn't won going 7 furlongs, but those prior attempts came against tougher foes. This distance should suit him.

RACE 8

It's hard to get too excited about anyone in this maiden claiming finale. Sassy Sats (#2) is probably the horse to beat after she faded to fourth at a higher level last time, her first ever dirt start. She probably is more of a turf-meant horse, but cutting back to 5 1/2 furlongs should suit her and she's catching a pretty soft field. First time starters have to be considered given the complexion of this race. Flee (#9) goes out for the dangerous Linda Rice barn, but she isn't really bred to be a pure sprinter with Take Charge Indy as her sire. The same goes for the Union Rags-sired Saratoga Sunset (#10). I want to go in a different direction with the more experienced Clarividente (#1). Her recent form has tailed off, but this barn has had success with maidens getting Lasix for the first time. She's getting significant class relief as she drops out of a series of much more competitive spots. Her lone standout speed figure was earned at Finger Lakes, but she has other numbers that make her a contender here. Blinkers come off, which should give Dalila Rivera the option not to immediately engage her main rival in the neighboring gate.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

I couldn't look past the two favorites in this opener and will give the slight edge to Flat On (#3) as he makes his second start off the claim for Linda Rice. He was a little wider than main rival Confabulation (#6) last time and there wasn't much between them. It would be a surprise if someone else won this.

RACE 2

I'm fairly logical through this early double. Three B's (#1) has some distance questions to answer as he stretches out to a mile for the first time, but I see no reason why he shouldn't handle it. He's bred to go longer, as one of his half-siblings was even successful over jumps. He finished his 7-furlong race like a horse that would get more ground. Last time he lost some position while dealing with kickback on the turn, and then was behind horses in upper stretch before hitting his best stride too late. Unbroken Chain (#4) has run well in both starts since getting claimed by Ed Barker, but I'm still not totally convinced that he's at his best going this one-mile distance. I didn't really want anyone else.

RACE 3

I'm always looking for reasons to take a shot against Off Script (#5), who has settled for second in 7 of her 10 career starts, and got back to her runner-up tendencies last time following a maiden win against overmatched competition. While a repeat of those races might be good enough to beat this field, I don't need her at a very short price. She's Grand (#3) will take some money, but I thought she was coming out of a subpar race at this level last time. I prefer Hello Beauty (#4), who finished 3 lengths behind Off Script in that Dec. 26 race. Yet she had a tougher trip than her main rival, pulling in the early stages before making a couple of premature moves to hit the lead too soon. She paid the price late, but never truly gave up. I like her cutting back to a one-turn mile here, and winning rider Kendrick Carmouche gets back aboard.

RACE 4

Trust Fund (#3) is obviously the horse to beat on the class drop. He won this condition back in August, and since then has held his own against open first-level allowance foes. He was mildly compromised by a speed-favoring surface last time, and a repeat of that 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure should be good enough to beat this field. There should be a fair pace in this race given the presence of What's Up Bro (#6) and a few other speeds. That rival did run well at the level last time, but was aided by a rail bias. I want to bet Beary Funny (#2), who has returned in top form for William Morey. This gelding really turned a corner in late 2024, and since then has run 4 of the best races of his life for the Morey barn. He won despite getting bet like he needed a race off the layoff two back. Then last time he was far more engaged early, making an early move to lead before getting overwhelmed by budding NY-bred star Moe Eighty Eight. This is class relief, and I don't mind him cutting back slightly.

RACE 5

Mr. Ripple (#3) is obviously the horse to beat as he drops significantly, all the way down to this $10k level after having just raced for a tag once prior to this. Yet he was pretty disappointing in that lone previous claiming attempt last time, failing to show up despite looking competitive on paper. This horse had been babied at Finger Lakes through last summer, but has generally been a disappointment despite spending time in some sharp barns. The class relief makes him formidable, but I have an alternative idea. Run Happy Pappy (#6) dropped to this level last time and ran better than it looks. He was ridden by a jockey who rarely wins on this circuit, and was just never in a comfortable spot, awkwardly stuck in traffic in upper stretch before rallying gamely through kickback late despite having to alter course. He has more speed than he showed that day, and figures to get a more aggressive ride from Ruben Silvera. He led in gate to wire fashion with a competitive speed figure at Monmouth last fall, and can get back to that form now that he's realistically spotted again.

RACE 6

There is plenty of speed drawn towards the inside in this race, but I wonder if it will develop as a fast pace. Celtic Prince (#1) doesn't seem fast enough to make the lead and the jockeys on a couple of the other pace players aren't terribly aggressive. If pace fails to develop, that could be an issue for the two likely favorites, Lean Music Machine (#4) and Hard to Say (#6). Both are confirmed closers getting class relief. They come in with the best form, both going out for sharp barns, but I don't want to take particularly short prices on either one given their running styles. The horse that figures to get the best setup is Majestic Arc (#7), who is drawn in an advantageous position well outside of all the other speed. He might look a cut below these at first glance, but he has actually shown decent form since returning from a layoff last fall. He chased a quick pace two back going 7 furlongs, which is a bit too far for him. Then last time he was always extremely wide while racing against a rail bias. He actually did quite well to hold on for second in a race that was falling apart late. He goes out for underrated connections that can win at this time of year.

RACE 7

Skylander (#4) has generally faced much tougher rivals than this, and should find himself back in the winner's circle as he drops down to the lowest level of his career. The only other time he ran nearly this cheaply he won decisively with a standout speed figure in October. He wasn't even disgraced against better foes at the $16k level last time, and a repeat of that performance will make him tough. He's Got This (#3) and Unbridled Bomber (#2) tried to close over a speed-favoring track last time. The former was compromised by a wide trip and should appreciate turning back.

RACE 8

Weigh the Risks (#1) will obviously beat this field if she repeats the 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure she achieved when romping to victory in the Go For Wand last month. However, she does have to prove that she can replicate that form going two turns, something she has never done successfully on the dirt. It's also fair to point out that her last victory was probably enhanced by the racetrack, as there appeared to be an inside speed bias on Dec. 13. It's not as if that's her only standout speed figure, but she does figure to get overbet on the perception that her last race makes her untouchable. There is some speed in here to keep the favorite honest on the front end. Longshot Low Country Magic (#2) may apply pressure early, and main rival Quietside (#7) is another likely to press the pace. The latter is a newly turned 4-year-old who should continue moving forward, especially as she makes her third start off a layoff. Quietside was wide around both turns in the Comely last time and stayed on well behind the talented Fully Subscribed. You have to respect anything that John Ortiz sends out on the NYRA circuit. The horse I prefer from the Comely is Ourdaydreaminggirl (#3). While she did save more ground than Quietside in the early stages, there was not much pace ahead of her. She did well to close through the stretch in a race where no one was making up ground from the back. It's not the first time that she's run well around two turns. She just missed at a huge price in the Grade 1 Cotillion back in September, and has generally been improving through racing ever since returning from a layoff last summer. I have fewer questions about her getting 9 furlongs than I do for most in this field, and she figures to be a square price.

RACE 9

As expected, Linda Rice scratched Alias, who would have been a solid favorite. No Filter (#5) will attract support in his second start, but I don't like that he's needed time off and is now dropping in for $20k after showing potential in the race out of which he got claimed. I have to consider Army Proud (#6) given Wayne Potts having turned around his fortunes in the last few weeks. This colt showed improved form in December and can get another piece of this if he shows up with a similar effort here. The horse I really want to bet is Seeker's Hope (#9), who exits the same race as Alias from last week. He finished two lengths behind that foe, but may have actually run the better race. Jan. 10 began that one-week period where we observed a dead rail on most days, and Seeker's Hope was the inside speed last time. He ran a lot better than it looks in that spot, and also hinted at improved form two back when chasing a fast pace that ultimately collapsed. He's drawn much better outside this time.