TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

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Strategies & Insights

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RACE 1

It's hard to take short prices on horses like Churning Berni (#1), who took 24 starts to break her maiden and now may go favored in her first attempt against winners. She certainly deserves to be favored, since she's a standout on speed figures. Nearly all of her dirt Beyers are faster than anyone in this field has ever run. Her TimeformUS Speed Figures don’t sit quite as high, but still give her a decent advantage. The problem is that she has regressed slightly since the switch to Jamie Ness, and she beat an awful field when she finally did break through last time. I'm not way against her given the complexion of this field, but I will look elsewhere. I don't want Blenheim Baby (#6), who is slow and may be a similar price to the favorite merely because Prat is riding. The better alternative is Heavens Lee (#2). She, too, has never run a particularly fast dirt race, but at least she's been improving recently. She was in better form than ever when last seen on turf in the fall, and subsequently produced far and away her best dirt performance off the layoff last time. She probably does prefer grass, but I thought she ran well to just miss after attacking a fast pace last time. Her tactical speed may give her the edge this time.

RACE 2

Hip Hop Dancer (#2) ran well at this level last when only beaten by her superior stablemate Queen Sally. Her only poor performance since the switch to Ralph D'Alessandro came when she was against a track bias two back. A repeat of her last win makes her the one to beat, but she was 35-1 that day and now will be one of the favorites. I prefer main rival Raynam Hall (#4) for a few reasons. Unlike her main rival, this filly has never raced for a tag and will be dropping into the softest spot of her career. She will take some money based on her superior turf form, but her lone dirt effort last time is a lot better than it looks on paper. Firstly, she was traveling 3-wide against a rail bias that day, and even with that disadvantage she still ran a speed figure that makes her competitive here. She also was green reacting to kickback early, which put her out of position. This time that shouldn't be an issue since she looks like the main speed. She may be better on turf, but she still will likely be good enough to beat this dirt field.

RACE 3

The two most logical contenders are obviously Big Dig (#6) and Higher Force (#5). Anyone who has been closely following the track bias situation at Aqueduct will slightly prefer the latter, who had a valid excuse when beaten by Big Dig last time. Whereas that Joe Sharp trainee was glued to the rail for entire trip, Higher Force was chasing outside against the bias. I prefer the prior form of Higher Force anyway, and view her as the horse to beat in this spot. Yet I do think there's another possible player who may fly under the radar. I know I'm reaching a bit in making a case for Luckforyou (#1), but I believe this longshot has a chance to outrun her odds. It's easy for me to excuse her last couple of starts. She's simply not a one-turn horse, so she had no chance going 7 furlongs last time, and she was also out of position when trying a mile two back against a better field. She did run a race that puts her in the mix here when she broke her maiden last May, and that is notably her last two-turn dirt race. Some will view her as having gone off form since then, but she really hasn't been in the right spots. Stamina is her only weapon, and she finally gets to make use of it stretching out to 9 furlongs on dirt. Jose Lezcano typically gets live mounts for this underrated barn, and should have her forward from the start.

RACE 4

I can't take another short price on Good Cop (#1), who had his chance to win at a lower level last week and couldn't see it out despite getting a good trip. He was unable to even forge past his fainthearted stablemate Noguchi that day, and now is being asked to get 9 furlongs. He still is the horse to beat given his overall form, but at similar prices I would prefer Lucky Dragon (#3). This horse was out of position early last time without blinkers when trying this level, but finished with good interest. That was a better field than this one, and now he's putting the blinkers back on. He's handled 9 furlongs in the past, and should be forward throughout. Inonit (#2) is the other horse to consider, but he's had a few more chances and tends to need a bit more pace assistance.

RACE 5

I'm a little concerned about the inside post position for Ten Cent Town (#1), who runs his best races when he can be involved in the early pace. There appear to be some quicker rivals drawn outside of him, and he may be forced to rate from this rail draw. While he did get back to the winner's circle for new connections last time, but he still didn't quite run back to the 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned in that Dec. 13 victory, which was aided by a speed bias. Ravin's Ransom (#5) should be quick enough to edge ahead of that rival early if aggressively sent from the start under new rider Flavien Prat. He conceded the lead in a slow pace situation last time and possesses more natural speed than that. Stewie (#4) has shown the ability to stalk and win in the past, but he nearly beat the gate last time on Mar. 5, and Manny Franco seized the opportunity to send him to the lead. He got away with moderate fractions and had little excuse to get run down in the late stages. He now makes his first start off the claim for Orlando Noda, who does well with this move but will have to get this horse to move forward. I prefer Looms Boldly (#6), who ran down Stewie on Mar. 5 despite getting outrun to the early lead. Looms Boldly broke a bit flat-footed and was forced to rate behind the leader in the early stages. This 6-year-old has never been successful using anything other than a frontrunning style, so it was surprising to see him find another gear and run down the leader in the lane. That speaks to a horse who is rounding back into top form after a dry spell late last year. He's now first off the claim for very capable connections, and I like that he's drawn outside of his main pace rivals. He may be quick enough to make the lead, but he now has the option to sit and pounce after it worked so well last time.

RACE 6

It will be tough to deny Carvellian Quest (#3), who has been excellent form since coming to the NYRA circuit this winter. He's run well twice at this level, arguably best despite losing each time. He was chasing outside against a rail bias two back, and setting an honest pace in a race that collapsed last time. He has other speed to contend with once again here, but he is meeting a slightly softer group for the level. I just worry that he'll be overbet with Prat getting aboard. Whiskey N Soda (#4) is one closer to consider after he got so closer to the favorite last time. He lost some position on the turn but was finishing best up the rail late. He held his form reasonably well for new connections but was returning on short rest and I wonder if he'll be as successful in his second start for this barn. I prefer Twohonestmischief (#2) of the potential late runners. He was never inside when against the rail bias last time in a pretty spot at this level. His prior speed figures all make him a contender, and he showed the ability to get a mile in his maiden win three starts back. I know it took him a while to break his maiden, but he appears to have finally come around.

RACE 7

There is little form to grasp in this finale. Celeslia (#1) showed decent speed before fading on debut, and did herself no favors by hanging on her left lead through the lane. It would be no surprise if she were able to progress in her second start. I just don't like the field she's exiting, even acknowledging that this isn't much of a group either. Naturally first time starters must be considered in this situation, and the most convincing of those is Covert Affair (#8). Take Charge Indy is a 14% debut sire, and she's a half-sister to dirt sprint winner Consider It Done, who had success on this circuit. Ray Handal can win with firsters, especially in maiden claiming races, and the filly is drawn well outside with some decent workout times showing.