TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

Between the two Chad Brown runners, I much prefer Pomerance (#2), who was chasing outside and made a middle move into a slow pace on debut. She stayed on willingly at the end, looking like a horse that will relish added ground. Her pedigree also confirms that, being a daughter of Curlin. I'm not too concerned about the layoff since she's been working pretty consistently since the last race and this condition doesn't come up very often. She figures to win with even minor second time out improvement. Brown's other filly Pulling Threads (#5) seems a little less convincing on the stretch-out to a mile, and I don't love the field she was facing on debut. Some will point to the fact that the third-place finisher came back to win, but she did so riding a gold rail. The biggest threat to my top pick may be Irresistible (#4), who gets back on dirt after a one-paced turf attempt last time out in Florida. She ran competitively in both New York dirt starts last year and has trained well for her return to this circuit.

RACE 2

Timia (#5) is clearly the horse to beat after finishing second at this level last time out behind a heavily favored winner. She was chasing outside against a rail bias, so her performance is even better than the result suggests. It seems like she's gotten back into decent form since the claim by Wayne Potts, and she obviously handles this distance. I prefer her to Last Glory (#2), who exits the same race but rode the rail much of the way. Tahila (#1) is a little more interesting as a late runner, since she actually beat the track bias when she broke her maiden last time. Perhaps she's finally coming to hand as a dirt horse. If I'm trying to beat this favorite, I instead want to go with a more forwardly placed runner. Farm House (#4) wasn't beating the strongest field of $10k claimers two back, but she at least proved that she can still race competitively when spotted appropriately. She was simply in over her head when moved up into a $50k claimer last time, and she might have needed that race off a minor layoff. Now she's dropping back down in a race that came up very weak for the level, and also gets a minor rider upgrade to Reylu Gutierrez.

RACE 3

This race becomes much less interesting after scratches, with now only 4 runners left in the field. Majestic Return (#1) is obviously the horse to beat after running superior speed figures in her last couple of starts. She was placed ambitiously off the claim last time and actually traveled well to the quarter pole before flattening out. Though 3 of the 4 remaining participants are speeds, and I have some concerns about her withstanding early pressure. Edistrudis (#2) wasn't always a closing type, but she ran pretty well from off the pace two back when getting up for third against a decent starter allowance field. Her last race was obviously a disaster, but now she ships back to New York where she has run well before. She returns on short rest, and I like that there's no drop in class for a mare that these connections claimed for just $12,500.

RACE 4

Sheer Will (#2) will probably. Beat this field, but she's going to be an awfully short price, especially with Flavien Prat getting aboard. I have some doubts about that 83 Beyer she earned three back, and her subsequent efforts make her the horse to beat but no more. I thought she was supposed to win last time given the way she took over in upper stretch, and I don't like that she's gotten run down by stablemates in two successive starts. I'll try to beat her from the front end here with former Rice trainee Kadena (#3), who now goes out for Fernando Abreu. She won first off the claim last time, and did so with the aid of a rail bias. However, that race came up surprisingly slow for the horses involved and I have a suspicion that it was a stronger race than the speed figures suggest. She would offer appeal here even based on her prior form, and I think her tactical speed is going to play well in another short field.

RACE 5

Here's another race that scratched down to just 4 participants. Just Music (#1) has the best prior form, but her return off the layoff was fairly workmanlike and she may have to improve on it to beat this field. She is stretching out to her preferred distance, so I view her as the horse to beat. My top pick is Sailaway (#3), who recently has needed some pace help but previously had the speed to get forward in a race like this. She didn't have a fair chance when wide against the bias in a forwardly dominated race last time. She's never gone this far on the dirt, but she's bred to route and gives the impression that longer distances should suit her. Gustavo Rodriguez has shown a knack for getting horses to achieve their best results going long on dirt.

RACE 6

Baron of Sealand (#2) will probably beat this field if he repeats that 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned last time out. The argument against this likely favorite is that his last effort might be somewhat enhanced by spending the first two-thirds of his trip riding the rail. That was one of the many recent days at Aqueduct that featured an inside bias. His prior form doesn't make him any kind of standout here, though he did run reasonably well at this level with a wide trip back in December. He appears to be in better form now, and proved that he can get the distance in January. This distance is a major concern for Shadow Dragon (#6), who I have never liked going two turns. He stretches out off the claim for new connections, but his recent form is somewhat dubious and he's going to take money merely because Flavien Prat is riding. Leftembehind (#4) is the other horse for trainer Rudy Rodriguez, and he offers some appeal after running deceptively well at this level last time. He was off slowly and made an early backstretch move to contest the pace before fading. He can handle this distance, but has to get over his recent tendency to break poorly. My top pick is Concorde Spirit (#3), who steps up off a victory at the N1X level. He looks a little slower than some of the main players, but he has run better than the bare results would indicate in a few of his recent starts. That was certainly the case when he close for second behind the talented Mo Eighty Eight on Nov. 29 despite going wide over an inside-biased course. He then overcame another wide trip to cross the wire first in December only to get disqualified. He finally broke through that first-level allowance condition last time, doing so despite never racing inside over an extremely rail-biased course. He has taken a real step forward in recent starts, and seems ready for the step up in class.

RACE 7

I didn't have a clever take in this finale. It's a coin flip between the two favorites, Sheriff Bianco (#6) and High Tide (#8). The former has the proven back class, but he's really gone off form in recent starts. High Tide has been more consistent, but he's returning from a layoff. He is protected by the waiver. Rick Dutrow is a trainer who tends to use that option in situations when his horses need a race, but I wonder if that might not be the case here. He's worked pretty aggressively for this return, and that bullet drill on Feb. 2 matches this barn's fast allowance horse Over and Ollie. That signals to me that he should be ready off the bench.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

There isn't much to highlight here. Linda Rice will probably win this race with one of her two entrants. I slightly prefer class dropper Golden Plate (#5), who has run superior speed figures and faced much better company. Main rival and stablemate Fever Night (#3) did finally get back to the winner's circle last time, but beat rode a speed bias to victory.

RACE 2

Two Ducks (#4) is probably the horse to beat given the early speed that he possesses in a race that doesn't feature much of that. However, I still have some reservations about him getting 7 furlongs. He would appreciate if the track is still wet on Saturday, since he appears to prefer off tracks. I just prefer the other logical contender Tiger Rocket (#2). I didn't think this colt got a particularly good ride last time when he was restrained behind a slow pace early and never seemed totally comfortable racing in that position. Speed and the rail were good on Jan. 2, so I won't hold it against him that he failed to make a late impact. He ran better two back with a wide trip and is probably getting the additional class relief that he needs. I also think a slightly shorter trip should work well for him.

RACE 3

Chillax (#2) may win this race at a short price, but I'm getting a little tired of his tendency to settle for minor awards as the favorite. He got a very good trip last time, saving ground all the way around the second turn before popping outside of the leader in upper stretch. He looked like he was going to win, but just flattened out late. Some of that was due to the rail bias, but I think he also showed that he may not really want to go this far. I prefer others from that race. One of those is Valentinian (#4), who was wide against the bias throughout in that Feb. 6 allowance. He's another who isn't totally convincing going 1 1/4 miles, but he is better than his last couple of results and can rebound here. Waitlist (#5) exits a different race, but he also raced wide during the gold rail period on Feb. 14. He ran well going this distance last May, and should attain better forward position this time if he breaks cleanly. I'm using him, but the horse I prefer is Neon Bordeaux (#1). He did spend time on the rail in that Feb. 6 race, but he was off the inside for much of the far turn before angling back in for the stretch drive. What really struck me about his performance was that he was actually able to close through the lane in a slow-paced race where no one else was making up ground from the back. His massive stride suggests he wants this 10-furlong distance more than anyone else. I also don't think he's going to be nearly as far back early this time in a smaller field with less pace.

RACE 4

I have major doubts about Sculcos Folly (#2) getting a mile. This horse owns by far the best speed figure in this field when he earned a 112 TimeformUS for that near 10-length victory against starter optional claiming foes last time. A repeat of that performance will obviously beat this field. However, he strikes me as such a sprinter. He's smaller with a short, choppy stride, characteristics of a horse who will have trouble going longer. The problem with this race is that so few seem well suited to the distance. The one horse who looks most convincing is stablemate The Obliterator (#6), but that's fairly obvious since he's won routing. He improved when claimed back by these connections last time and is dangerous even as he returns on short rest here. The other horse who I believe will handle the distance is Anyway (#7). He was beaten by The Obliterator here last week, but he stayed on decently in his first attempt going a mile and may be fitter for this race as he makes his third start in less than a month. Over 5 years, Linda Rice is 22:5-7-2 (23%, $2.63 ROI) coming back on 10-day turnarounds or shorter in stakes races. That a 64% rate of finishing in the exacta, suggesting that these types are well meant.

RACE 5

Morlock (#1) ran well at this level on Feb. 14, but he benefited from riding the rail bias. I want horses who were against the track during that period. One of those is Good Lord (#5), who beat a weaker field but did so while racing against the grain of the track. He's making his first start off the claim for sharp connections and can run faster on a fair surface. I'm just a little more convinced by the overall form of Gamebred (#2). This Charlie Baker trainee took a big step forward when finishing second at this level two back, splitting the superior rivals Reynolds Channel and Interceptor. He confirmed that sudden improvement by finishing a strong third against another tough field last time. The race was dominated by either inside or forward horses, and he was neither of those things, rallying outside. That performance is stronger than it appears, and he will beat this field if he runs as well here.

RACE 6

Reliable Lady (#4) is clearly the mare to beat as she drops in class. It would appear that Sandy Goldfarb and the Brad Cox team are willing to admit they may have made a bad claim with this one, as she got good for a brief period of time late last year and appears to have gone the other way since. She still can win here if just holding her recent form, but she's a little tough to take at a very short price. I had said yesterday that I thought the race at this level won by Kadena was a little stronger than the speed figure it was assigned. I'll obviously take a look at runner-up Next On Stage (#3) based on that opinion, but she did ride the gold rail for much of her trip. I would rather take Shadyside (#2) from that same race, since she was stuck 4-wide against the rail bias all the way around the turn and into the lane. She actually was in the mix in upper stretch before that tough trip took its toll late. She also had less than ideal trips in both prior starts since returning from a layoff, and I think she's a lot better than she looks on paper. The switch to hot-riding Ricardo Santana doesn't hurt.

RACE 7

I'm not trying to beat Early On (#1), who gets needed class relief after trying the Kentucky Oaks last year and then returning in a tough open company stakes race last time. She hasn't faced restricted competition since she was a 2-year-old, and she should fit well against this field as she takes advantage of her New York-bred status. Grace Reformed (#4) was in strong form before she went to the sidelines last summer, but even her best races might not be good enough to beat Early On if that one bounces back to her better form second off the layoff.

RACE 8

Galinda (#2) will probably win this race at a very short price, but I can poke some holes in this favorite. Her debut was legitimately strong, but it was accomplished over a wet track sprinting 6 furlongs. She got an extra furlong winning the East View last time, but did so with the aid of a rail bias after being allowed to set a slow pace. Now she lands in a race that features much more early speed and she has to prove that she can stretch out to a mile. She is by good route influence Good Magic, but visually she has the quicker action of a sprinting type. I don't want to just hand this race to her as the likely odds-on favorite. I'll try to beat her with Blue Note (#7), who obviously has to get faster to take down the favorite. Yet she proved she wanted every bit of this one-mile distance on debut, not hitting her best stride until the final furlong. She was a little green that day, and was ridden conservatively like a horse who probably needed the race, that is until Flavien Prat realized he might be able to win in the late stages. I get the sense she's better than that modest speed figure and I'm expecting a step forward now that she has a start under her belt. Linda Rice is 5 for 9 (56%, $4.78 ROI) with debut winners making their second career starts on dirt over the last 2 years.

RACE 9

This allowance race features the return of G1 Hopeful third-place finisher Incentive Pay (#3). However, that was the 2024 edition of the Hopeful, and this horse hasn't run since. Chad Brown does have extremely strong statistics in this situation, going 8 for 27 (30%, $2.53 ROI) off layoffs of 360 days or more over the last 5 years. I'm still reticent to take too short a price on a horse who does need to improve to beat this field. Sea Vista (#7) is stepping up out of a maiden victory, but this horse had always been well regarded by his connections and may just finally be putting things together now that he's focusing on dirt racing. He won despite chasing outside against a rail bias last time, and that 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure is among the fastest numbers in this field. Another horse getting a class test is Porosity (#2), who just beat starter allowance foes in his last start. This is a much stronger group, but he was impressive in victory, making up ground into a very fast final split. That 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the fastest number in this field, and Linda Rice has given him ample time to recover from that effort. Protected (#8) showed some promise in New Jersey-bred races last year, but he has really stepped forward since returning against open company this winter. He chased the talented National Identity two back, and the form of that race was flattered when that rival returned to win a stakes. Then last time Protected was chasing outside over an extremely rail-biased surface. He held on well for third, and was the only runner among the top four finishers not to spend any time on the inside part of the track. The Pace Projector doesn't highlight much early speed in this race, depicting three horses vying for the lead, none of which are confirmed frontrunners. He's drawn perfectly outside here and should get an advantageous trip stalking a moderate pace.