by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 3 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 2: 4 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 3: 7 - 6 - 5 - 8
Race 4: 5 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 5: 3 - 4 - 8 - 5
Race 6: 5 - 6 - 1 - 2
Race 7: 6 - 7 - 5 - 4
Race 8: 4 - 8 - 9 - 3
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
Trafalgar (#5) is likely to go off as a heavy favorite as he drops in class down to this $32k claiming level. While he’s run pretty well in his starts for the Linda Rice barn, he’s done no better than a third-place finish at his eligible optional claiming level, and Rice is ready to cut ties. She claimed him for $62,500 and is dropping him in for nearly half that price with little to show for it. He’ll win this race with any of his recent good efforts, but he’s going to be a very short price and he’s a deep closer who needs the race flow in his favor. These types can often be bad gambles. He’s also coming off the worst performance he’s produce for the Rice barn, when he got a favorable pace setup on Feb. 25 and wasn’t able to do much with it. His main rival appears to be Mystic Night (#1), but he’s exiting an even worse effort at the same level. He attracted some support first off the claim for Rob Atras, but was basically eased halfway through that race when he wasn’t traveling well. Now he’s dropping right back down in class, and perhaps that will be enough to get him back on track. The Atras barn has been hot lately, but I still find this horse unreliable and it’s not like’s going to be an enticing price. My top pick is Thunderian (#4). I was interested in this horse last time at a big price, based on an against the bias trip on Jan. 12. He only finished fourth, but I don’t think I was wrong about him, since he produced his best speed figure in a while. That just proved to be slightly too tough a race at the $40k level. He got a pretty good trip, but couldn’t go with the winner late. Now he puts blinkers back on for the first time since coming into the Rachel Sells barn. Stretching back out to a mile is not supposed to be a problem for him, and he’s apparently in good form catching some rivals coming off poor efforts. At the likely price, I have to give him one more chance.
Fair Value:
#4 THUNDERIAN, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 3
I’m not way against the likely favorite Malu (#6), but I also have little interest in betting her at a likely short price. She’s been pretty consistent through her recent starts and she seems to have produced her best form going the one-mile distance at this level. She exits a fast race last time where she was no match for the winner, and now makes her first start off a trainer switch to Linda Rice. She figures to run well, but her form is exposed and I don’t see much value there. The two interesting alternatives are drawn alongside her. Dream On Cara (#5) is an unusual horse to be making her first start off the claim as an 0 for 16 maiden. Gustavo Rodriguez has had success claiming horses in the past, though not so much recently. She has back form that gives her a big chance, but I can’t say that I’ve loved either of her efforts since returning from a layoff. I have to take a shot with the other alternative, Krystalheir (#7). Her recent form surely leaves something to be desired, but she did show some ability early in her career. She ran well to close from the back of the pack on debut and then showed improved form in her next couple of starts before going the wrong way. Recently she’s been overmatched at the maiden special weight level, but now she’s finally getting needed class relief. I don’t mind her stretching out in distance as a daughter of Keen Ice.
Fair Value:
#7 KRYSTALHEIR, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 4
The two horses who figure to vie for favoritism in this N1X allowance affair couldn’t look more different on paper. Magic Express (#3) is a lightly raced 4-year-old making just the third start of his career. He showed speed and faded on debut when defeated by a previously 0 for 16 maiden at Parx. Yet he seemed to take a big step forward second time out, winning convincingly at Aqueduct by nearly 5 lengths, earning a strong 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That number should make him competitive in this allowance event. However, Brittany Russell does not have particularly strong statistics with horses exiting maiden victories in dirt sprints, going 13 for 81 (16%, $0.70 ROI) with such runners over the past 5 years. The other favorite Mandatory (#6) is far more experienced than his aforementioned rival. He took a 1 for 20 record into his 6-year-old season when he dropped in class to face claimers two back. Yet John Kimmel changed up some equipment for that race, using glue-on shoes as reported by DRF’s David Grening, and it seemed to make all the difference. Mandatory delivered a breakout performance, earning a 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that runaway victory. He came back against tougher last time and repeated that number in more workmanlike fashion. He just seems to be thriving right now, but he is again moving up in class and likely to be a short price with that exposed form. Linda Rice has entered a pair, both of which have some questions to answer. What’s Up Bro (#2) turned in an excellent effort first off the claim for this barn two back, but he wasn’t nearly as effective at this level last time in the mud. He never got to the front and just seemed to lack his typical spark. Chileno (#4) has the opposite running style as a deep closer. He hasn’t been seen since Saratoga last summer, but he was in good form at the time, and did handle this distance just prior to the layoff. My top pick is Kunshan Bridge (#5), who might get somewhat overlooked in this spot despite possessing competitive form. He has tried this level a few times without winning, but he’s run well in most of his recent starts. He achieved his last victory when dropped in for a $32k tag, and was claimed out of that race by Mertkan Kantarmaci. He’s been in solid form since the claim, turning in his only poor effort on Feb. 9 when towards the inside on a track favoring outside paths. He rebounded nicely last time in the slop, staying on for third while again racing inside of rivals on a day when riders seemed to avoid the inner paths. He is a horse who seems to prefer racing inside of rivals so hopefully he catches a fair track on Friday. There’s some speed in this race to set up his late kick and the price should be fair.
Fair Value:
#5 KUNSHAN BRIDGE, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 7
Apollo Rising (#7) has to be considered the horse to beat based on his recent form and overall consistency. He has been campaigned exclusively at this demanding 9-furlong distance recently and seems to handle it well. The last two of those runs came at this starter allowance level, and he was the beaten favorite each time. However, he was hung out wide every step of the way on Jan. 12 and still did well to take the lead in mid-stretch before tiring. Then last time he was chasing a fast pace set by a horse who ultimately faded to last. He took the lead in mid-stretch and battled gamely while settling for second. He has drawn the far outside post for the third time in a row, but he figures to get a good trip sitting just off a trio of speeds. The best of those potential speed horses appears to be Seeking Unity (#6), and I believe he’s capable of causing a minor upset. This colt easily handled today’s rival Memphis when beating conditioned claimers two back in his final start for Linda Rice. He got the 9-furlong distance that day without issue, though he had previously been beaten by Apollo Rising at this level and distance on Jan. 12. However, he was coming off a brief layoff on that occasion and never looked totally comfortable racing inside of horses. He made his first start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez last time, and contested the pace before fading behind stablemate Magical Ways, who came back to win again at the N1X level with an improved speed figure. While there is other speed drawn inside of him, I like the outside post for Seeking Unity, and I think he’s every bit as talented as the favorite on his best day.
Fair Value:
#6 SEEKING UNITY, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 8
It’s difficult to trust anyone in this $25k conditioned claimer. The horse to beat is probably Thank You Jon (#9), who is one of a few exiting a $40k claimer won impressively by Mandatory. He at least tried to contest the pace that day before fading, and was hardly disgraced settling for fourth. He now makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice, but it’s not a great sign that she’s dropping him in class. Rice has good stats off the claim generally, but she’s just 11 for 53 (21%, $1.18 ROI) first off the claim for Winning Move Stable over the past 5 years. I won’t be surprised if this horse wins, but I also didn’t need to take him at a short price. I wonder if Pineapple Man (#8) can bounce back with a better effort this time after he was basically eased a few furlongs into that return race in February. Mike Maker is dropping him in class right away, which isn’t a great sign, since this horse once possessed talent. I wish the barn was doing better overall at the moment, but the horse does at least show an improved workout this month. My top pick is Agility (#4). He’s not exactly a winning type at 1 for 18 lifetime with 6 second-place finishes. However, he has faced better company than he meets here for the majority of his career. He didn’t run that badly off the layoff in December, and then caught a tough field on Jan. 13, where he chased the pace and was hardly disgraced, finishing just 3 lengths behind next-out winner Quick to Accuse. His last effort at this level looks poor, but he got off to a terrible start, bumped back to last, before rushing up to chase the pace. He naturally faded after that early exertion. Now he makes his first start off the claim for Wayne Potts. I’m hoping Trevor McCarthy can get him to settle more this time, since he’s been too keen in the last few starts. He should be competitive at this level and might be a square price this time.
Fair Value:
#4 AGILITY, at 5-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 6 - 3 - 8 - 2
Race 2: 5 - 4 - 6
Race 3: 2 - 6 - 3 - 7
Race 4: 9 - 7 - 4 - 3
Race 5: 5 - 6 - 1A - 3
Race 6: 7 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 7: 1A - 7 - 6 - 5
Race 8: 10 - 2 - 8 - 3
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
Andy Cant (#3) figures to go off at a short price in this opener as he drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. This Bill Mott trainee has run plenty of races during his career that are superior to those of any rivals he meets in this $20k maiden claimer. However, he went to the sidelines last summer and his return from the layoff last time left a lot to be desired. He was clearly facing a much better field than this, but he also had little to offer that day, chasing the pace early before fading badly though the stretch. Even when this gelding has been at his best, he hasn’t bee the strongest finisher, often getting a look at the lead in upper stretch and flattening out approaching the wire. This 0-for-13 maiden has had plenty of chances to break through already and probably doesn’t have much upside, even as he makes his second start off the layoff. This is not the kind of favorite I would want to endorse at a short price. The problem becomes finding the right alternative. A lightly raced option like King of France (#8) merits some consideration. He does seem like a horse that wants more ground after debuting at 6 furlongs. He just didn’t run particularly well that day and needs to improve quite a bit from that debut if he’s to be successful here. My top pick is the other Rudy Rodriguez runner No Surrender (#6). He seems fairly reliable, having competed well at this level in each of his four most recent starts. He didn’t get away from the gate that well when he tried 9 furlongs on Jan. 1 and got an awkward rated trip after aggressive handling early. He then was never quite on the rail on Jan. 19, a day that featured a strong inside bias. That pace completely fell apart and he did well to just miss after contesting those fractions. Then last time the rail was perhaps not the best place to be on Feb. 10, and he was game to keep battling inside behind the favored winner. He handles the distance is getting a rider upgrade to Manny Franco for this.
Fair Value:
#6 NO SURRENDER, at 9-5 or greater
RACE 3
The two Linda Rice runners figure to vie for favoritism in this $14k conditioned claimer, but it’s hard to trust either one of them. Starry Midnight (#3) beat her stablemate when they met at a higher level on Jan. 1, but that was her only recent start over a fast racetrack. She just doesn’t appear to be as effective over wet, sealed going, and she’s likely to encounter another wet track on Thursday with plenty of rain in the forecast. I Feel the Need (#6) also hasn’t run great over a wet track before, but her races aren’t as dichotomous as those of her stablemate. Her problem is declining form, as she has seemingly gotten worse in each subsequent start for Linda Rice. She showed some talent when she won at Keeneland last October for Chris Hartman, but she hasn’t run nearly as well since getting claimed away from that barn. She was meeting tougher last time, but she completely lost contact with the field early and never made an impact. The drop in class should help, but deep closers like this are tough to trust. My top pick is the likely leader Perpetual Praise (#2). I’m usually inclined to be against horses like this, who earned their best speed figures when taking advantage of a bias, as she did when riding a gold rail to victory on Jan. 19. However, she had shown some talent prior to that, and it’s not as if her winning 82 TimeformUS Speed Figure that day is out of line with her surrounding form. She moved up in class last time to face $35k claiming foes and was simply overmatched in a race that didn’t play to her strengths. She dueled for the early lead with another frontrunner and faded late in a race that came apart. Horses have since come back out of that affair to show improved results, and I think Perpetual Praise can step forward on the drop. She has to get a mile, but she’s bred for it on the dam’s side, and getting comfortable up front should help her cause.
Fair Value:
#2 PERPETUAL PRAISE, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 7
Speightful Lily (#7) figures to be a prohibitive favorite as she steps up against winners for the first time. She registered a massive 117 final time figure for her debut victory, which was ultimately knocked down to a 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure due to the slow pace she contested. That’s still a very strong number for a first time starter, and she’s going to be tough for this field to beat if she can build on that performance. Yet, she did have everything go her way that day, as she was meeting a pretty soft group of maidens and worked out a perfect trip sitting on top of low fractions. While it helps that she figures to encounter another wet track, she does have to stretch out to a mile in her second start. From a pedigree standpoint, she’s supposed to handle it, being a half-sister to stakes-winning router Make Mischief. However, she looked like more of a sprinting type on debut, and her dam was strictly a sprinter. H. James Bond does have strong statistics with last-out maiden winners, but this filly is going to be an extremely short price even as she tackles this new hurdle for the first time. My top pick is Sail With the Wind (#1A). She hasn’t run quite as fast as the favorite, but she did earn some respectable speed figures in her first couple of dirt starts, beating maidens at Saratoga before finishing second to the capable Sweetest Princess in October. Since then she’s had a series of excuses. She was wide against a rail bias on Oct. 19 when she disappointed. She then ran much better on turf, proving that she’s still in strong form. She got back on dirt last time, and was inside for much of her trip over a track that was probably favoring outside paths. I think she’s better than those recent dirt results indicate. Now she gets a trainer switch to Marcelo Arenas and it’s a good sign that Kendrick Carmouche retains the mount.
Fair Value:
#1A SAIL WITH THE WIND, at 7-2 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 4 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 2: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 3: 5 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 4: 5 - 4 - 1A - 2
Race 5: 6 - 7 - 4 - 8
Race 6: 8 - 5 - 7 - 4
Race 7: 4 - 7 - 1 - 2
Race 8: 11 - 4 - 2B - 8
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3
This starter allowance looks like one of the most wide open races on the card, lacking a clear-cut favorite. I imagine the public might gravitate towards a horse like Meraviglioso (#6), who has won two in a row, including her last over a wet track. This mare is obviously in solid form since the trainer switch to James Ferraro, but she’s moving up in class here to face a tougher field. I won’t be surprised when she does well, but I thought others with less exposed form would offer better value. Will Be Famous (#7) looks like the quickest of them all early, and utilized her speed last time when getting back to frontrunning tactics. She obviously handles a wet track, but she has to prove she can get 7 furlongs as a horse who sometimes appears lacking in the stamina department. Belle of the Ball (#3) is one alternative to consider as she tries this level for the second time after finishing third behind Will Be Famous on Feb. 17. She broke her maiden over a sloppy track two back, doing so with a strong 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure. A repeat of that number would make her tough, but her surrounding performances don’t quite measure up. She has to prove it at this class level but does go out for a capable barn. My top pick is Duckphat (#5). There is an argument that this mare might merit favoritism based on her recent form, but her low-profile connections usually inflate her price to some degree. She’s run well in most of her starts since coming to Aqueduct last November. She closed strongly for second at this level going a mile in December before getting some time off at the start of this year. She returned last time over a sloppy track on Mar. 2, when the rail didn’t seem like the place to be. She was one of the few horses to mount a successful rally up the inside to get up for second. The winner Jackson’s Dixie returned to win again against a tougher field next time, and even third-place finisher Liberty Flame returned to run well in her next start. She fits here from every perspective and might not attract the support she deserves.
Fair Value:
#5 DUCKPHAT, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 6
A horse who figures to attract plenty of attention in this state-bred allowance is Quick to Accuse (#4), who makes his first start for the Brad Cox barn following a trainer switch. This horse has run competitively at this level before, but he’s hardly a standout in this field based on his recent form. This barn change seems like an attempt to shake things up with a runner who has been a little disappointing since getting his career off to a promising start as a 2-year-old. Brad Cox does have strong statistics with this move, going 34 for 105 (32%, $1.87 ROI) off trainer switches on dirt over 5 years. He’s also 6 for 11 (55%, $4.56 ROI) at NYRA within that sample. Perhaps his team gets this horse to improve, but I wouldn’t want to take a short price here. Dr. Kraft (#7) seems like the one to beat based on recent form. He’s narrowly lost at this level twice in row, both times going this same 7-furlong distance. The Chris Englehart barn has been on a roll at this meet, and perhaps the addition of blinkers will help tot put this colt over the top. He’s not exactly interesting with exposed form, but he figures to run well. There is other speed in this field, but Caldo Candy (#5) appears to be the biggest threat to wire them on the front end. Though he’s just stepping up out of the maiden ranks, he’s been running competitive speed figures in recent starts, earning a 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure to break his maiden last time. That figure has been since validated by today’s rival Paschal Moon in subsequent starts. Caldo Candy has to carry his speed 7 furlongs but might be the right price on the class rise. My top pick is Rock the Weekend (#8). He’s going to need some pace to develop up front as a horse who does his best running from well off the pace. Yet he seems to have really turned a corner in recent starts for trainer Lolita Shivmangal. He ran better than it might appear on Dec. 16 when he didn’t get the most comfortable trip but still stayed on to only get beaten 4 lengths by a strong field. He didn’t show up on Jan. 13, but subsequently seemed to overcome his prior aversion to wet tracks on Feb. 3. Despite racing wide against a rail bias, he still managed to mow that field down in the stretch with a powerful late kick. Stepped up to this level last time, he was unable to hit the board but ran better than the result might indicate, producing another solid finish out in the center of the track in a race that didn’t feature much pace. I like the stretch-out to 7 furlongs for him, and he figures to be the right price.
Fair Value:
#8 ROCK THE WEEKEND, at 6-1 or greater
#5 CALDO CANDY, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 7
Venti Valentine (#7) has to be viewed as the horse to beat based on her overall body of work in races like this. A mile is her best distance and this time she’s not facing anyone as talented as Fingal’s Cave or Dr B, who defeated her in her last couple of starts going this far. She’s unfortunately brought the rain with her recently, as she’s caught a series of wet tracks and is likely to encounter another on Sunday with all the rain predicted on Saturday. Yet she seems to be just fine regardless of going, She was beaten by today’s rival Security Code last time, but was finishing best of all going a distance that is a bit short for her. She can easily rebound against a group like this, but doesn’t figure to be much of a price. Security Code (#1) got the better of that rival last time in the Broadway, but that was going 7 furlongs. This filly hasn’t gone as far as a mile since her two-year-old season, when she was unsuccessful stretching out. She is in better form now, as she displayed last time when she transferred her consistent allowance performances to the stakes level. However, she was nearly 6-1 that day and figures to be a shorter price as she goes for the repeat against what appears to be a slightly tougher field. My top pick is Bustin Bay (#4). This mare returns on relatively short rest, having won here just 10 days ago for Adam Rice, who was deputizing for the suspended Linda during that time. Bustin Bay has generally been consistent over the past two seasons, so it was surprising to see her finishing off the board a couple of times late last year. However, she seemed to bounce back to her best form last time, regaining her early speed en route to a front-running victory against a solid open company field. That performance earned her a 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which compares up quite favorably to her main rivals here. Linda Rice is 5 for 14 (36%, $2.80 ROI) with horses running back in 13 days or less in dirt stakes over 5 years, and she’s 2 for 4 with last-out winners in that sample.
Fair Value:
#4 BUSTIN BAY, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 8
Likely favorite Silver Satin (#4) was no secret on debut, taking plenty of action to get bet down to 2-1. He wasn’t the quickest into stride breaking from the rail but made a nice move to the top of the stretch before staying on well for second in a fast race for the level. Jorge Abreu tends to have his firsters ready to fire, and he’s just 6 for 41 (15%, $1.23 ROI) with maiden second time starters on dirt over 5 years. This gelding will be tough if he merely runs back to that debut effort, and he's bred to appreciate added ground. I just wouldn’t want to take too short a price given the depth of this field. Another second time starter that some may consider is Last Drink (#9), who took money on debut and ran a strange race for Wesley Ward. Jose Gomez seemed to be concerned about the way he was traveling heading into the far turn and allowed him to drop out of position while under no encouragement to upper stretch. He finally got into him late and the horse re-rallied for third. However, he spent his entire trip on the rail on Jan. 18, which was a massive advantage. Most horses who rode the rail from that card have returned to significantly regress in their next starts, so he’s not for me. I would be interested in second time starter Land d’Oro (#2B) if he drew into the field from the AE list. This horse got shuffled back on the turn in his debut before staying on well. I still think he might want more ground than this 7 furlongs, but he has a right to improve second time out. My top pick is a horse who has had a few more chances than most others in this field. Vin Santo (#11) exits some common races with today's rival Inonit, and has beaten that foe in their last two meetings. He was towards the inside for much of his trip over that muddy track on Jan. 13, but was also hanging on his left lead through the stretch. He now returns as a new gelding going out for a barn that has gotten off to a strong start this year. He has shown hints of talent on occasion going all the way back to his debut, where he was extremely green. He’s run speed figures that put him right in the mix, and perhaps the slight turnback will work for a horse who has never gone this short before.
Fair Value:
#11 VIN SANTO, at 5-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 5 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 2: 3 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 3: 4 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 4: 6 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 5: 1A - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 6: 8 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 7: 4 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 8: 8 - 9 - 3 - 6
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3
Chateau (#1) will beat this field if he runs back to his effort last time, where he demolished a solid $16k claiming field by over 6 lengths, earning a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. I’m just skeptical that he’ll be able to put those kinds of performances back to back. He got clear of that field from an inside draw last time, but he faces some pretty fast rivals in this race. Talkin Pharoah (#2) and Graywing (#5) do their best running from the front end and both figure to get aggressive rides. I prefer some horses who can come from off the pace. Horn of Plenty (#3) appears to make sense as he drops in class out of a tougher spot on Mar. 3. He was aggressively handled in the early stages that day, but couldn’t keep up with the likes of Printrack and ultimately faded. He had run well prior to that for David Jacobson in plenty of allowance and optional claiming events, earning speed figures that make him one of the horses to beat outside of Chateau. My top pick is another horse from that Mar. 3 starter allowance. Can’t Beat Me (#4) finished one spot ahead of Horn of Plenty after he was also uncharacteristically close to the pace in the early stages. That’s not really his running style, as he’s generally best when he takes back and launches one run. That worked for him two back when he won at a lower level than this but earned a solid speed figure defeating First Deputy, who would return to win two starts later. That was his most recent start over a fast track and he should appreciate getting back on dry footing on Friday.
Fair Value:
#4 CAN'T BEAT ME, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 7
Clever Forever (#2) goes off at a short price each time he’s led to the post, even though he has a tendency to settle for minor awards rather than get the job done. It took him 6 attempts to break his maiden, finally doing so in workmanlike fashion as the 3-5 favorite on Jan. 5. Since then, he has tried this N1X condition twice, producing solid if underwhelming performances. While he was wide against a rail bias on Feb. 4, he didn’t really have a tougher trip than the runner-up in that spot. Then last time he had no excuse not to get the job done after a good trip. He stretches back out to 9 furlongs, which seems fine for him. Yet he figures to take money again despite the fact that others have produced better recent form. Main rival Aula (#6) should appreciate getting back out to this distance. If taken at face value, it’s easy to view his 9-furlong results as indicators that he’s just a better horse around two turns. However, he did take advantage of some favorable circumstances in those victories. That was particularly true on Feb. 4 when he got to the lead and the rail over a track that featured an inside bias. He took money at this level last time and was pretty disappointing, lacking the speed to keep up early. He should able to attain better early position here, but that won’t necessarily put him in the winner’s circle. My top pick is Horse Be With You (#4). The distance should be to this gelding’s benefit, as he’s generally been most effective in two-turn races. He produced some of his best efforts going 1 1/4 miles at Finger Lakes last year, so stamina is no concern. Since coming to Aqueduct this winter he’s run better than his bare results suggest on a couple of occasions. He was compromised by racing inside on Jan. 11, when the rail path was a disadvantage. He then encountered a rail bias on Feb. 4, but despite setting the pace was kept off the inside throughout, failing to take advantage of the bias. He set honest fractions over a slow track, and was run down by a horse who rode the rail path. Last time he cut back to a one-turn mile and put in another solid effort, but he should be capable of better on the stretch-out. One other horse to consider, potentially underneath, at a bigger price is Provision (#3). He’s been in decent form against weaker competition this winter and actually ran better than it might appear when stepped up to this level off the claim last time. The rail wasn’t the best place to be on Feb. 29 and he was inside throughout while chasing Clever Forever home. He’s gone two turns in the past, so distance shouldn’t be a major hurdle. He could pick up some pieces at a generous price.
Fair Value:
#4 HORSE BE WITH YOU, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 8
Many of the main players in this maiden special weight event are exiting a pair of split division races on Feb. 10. The 5th race on that card appeared to be the stronger of the two division going in, and it produced a more competitive result. The scratch of Geopolitics, who would have been a heavy favorite again, certainly opens this race up to other contenders. Peony (#9) was chilly on the board in that debut but ran quite well to challenge the favorite right down to the wire before tiring a bit. Yet Christophe Clement is trainer who has much better statistics with debut runners than second time starters. The other horse showing speed that day was Welcome Back Babe (#3), who has a right to do better in here. This half-sister to veteran stakes horse My Boy Tate might be capable of better in his second start for Michelle Nevin. My top pick is that race’s fourth-place finisher Aunt Yola (#8). She got off to a slow start and was squeezed back soon after, which put her in last moving down the backstretch. She actually made some decent progress around the far turn, moving nicely through the kickback to pass half the field by the quarter pole. She stalled a bit in the last furlong, but had a right to get tired after making that move. Horacio De Paz can get runners to improve with experience, and she might have a step forward in her if she’s able to start cleanly this time. She certainly has the pedigree to be a nice horse as a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Just One Time.
Fair Value:
#8 AUNT YOLA, at 3-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 5 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 2: 3 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 3: 7 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 4: 7 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 5: 5 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 6: 1 - 8 - 5 - 3
Race 7: 3 - 1 - 2 - 4
Race 8: 2 - 1 - 6 - 5
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
There is something to recommend about every horse in this confusing opener. I won’t argue with anyone who says Sorority Prank (#6) is the horse to beat, but I find this gelding pretty tough to trust at a short price. He is getting class relief as he drops into a maiden claimer, but his form is so inconsistent. His best race would clearly beat this field, but he’s put forth his best efforts on muddy, sealed tracks, and he won’t get that going on Thursday. Ava’s Uncle Billy (#2) appeals to me a bit more as a class dropper. He hasn’t run that well in any of his starts, but he’s also caught some tough competition along the way. He’s more convincing to get the one-mile distance and still has some upside. Air Force Cross (#1) isn’t dropping like those others but he’s another who might be capable of better here. He just looked green on debut when getting away awkwardly and failing to accelerate through kickback. Mike Maker doesn’t have stellar statistics off the claim, but at least he’s moving into a capable barn. My top pick is the biggest price of the three horses dropping out of maiden special weight company. Landauer (#5) barely lifted a hoof on debut, but he also wasn’t really asked to do anything. He broke with the field but never really got into stride and was eased less than a furlong into the race. Jose Gomez kept looking over the saddle as if he felt something amiss, and then just let the horse canter home. It’s unclear if he has any ability but he showed some solid workout times prior to the debut and took some nibbles on the board that day. Gokhan Kocakaya is one of the most aggressive jockeys on the premises and is sure to ask him for more effort this time. We’ll see if he can give it, but will find out at a price.
Fair Value:
#5 LANDAUER, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 2
I’m not sure who the public will gravitate towards in this $25k conditioned claimer. Nineteen Oysters (#6) was chilly on the board last time when he won off the layoff at nearly 6-1. Though he didn’t improve at all on his debut speed figure, he still ran well within the context of the race, stalking outside against a rail bias on Feb. 3. However, it probably isn’t a great sign that he wasn’t claimed that day, and I have little confidence that he can build on that form second off the layoff. Union Lights (#2) and Anthracite (#5) seem like the reliable options in decent form right now, but neither one is a winning type, each coming in off lengthy losing streaks. Anthracity seemed to wake up sprinting in his last two starts, but he was capable of going longer earlier in his career. Union Lights ran well off the Wayne Potts claim last time, but he got a pretty good trip and was unable to get the job done. I prefer Stop the Spread (#3) out of that same race at what should be a much better price. This gelding was ridden to go after leader Predicted that day as the two drew clear of the field into the far turn. Stop the Spread actually forged to the lead at mid-stretch but both were overhauled by closers in a race that fell apart. Notably, Predicted came back to win his next start last week, improving his TimeformUS Speed Figure by 10 points, validating the notion that these two speeds ran the best races. The Pace Projector depicts Stop the Spread up front in a situation favoring frontrunners, and he gets a rider upgrade to Trevor McCarthy.
Fair Value:
#3 STOP THE SPREAD, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 4
Given the lack of convincing form among those with experience, Saka Shocka (#2) seems likely to go favored by default.This 4-year-old gelding was set to debut here on Feb. 23 at this level, but he reared up in the stall and got scratched by the vet. He was 8-5 loading in the gate with Maddy Olver that day, taking money into the heavy favorite Paschal Moon. He’s got pedigree, by Maclean's Music out of a dam who has produced Grade 1 Starlet winner Varda and stakes-placed turf/dirt sprinter Big Family. Chad Brown is 6 for 25 (24%, $1.58 ROI) with firsters in Aqueduct dirt routes over 5 years. He makes sense, but I’m not inclined to settle for a short price on this type of runner. Call Bob (#6) is the experienced horse with the most formidable recent speed figure, earning a 98 TimeformUS Figure for his runner-up effort on Jan. 18. However, that day featured one of the strongest rail biases of the year in NY and he was glued to the inside throughout. He got so close to the rail at one point that he actually knocked some snow off it near the quarter pole. He also was meant to win, getting hammered down to an unlikely 2-1 price off poor prior form. Now he’s being asked to stretch out to a mile while stepping up in class. I want to go in a different direction with Flip’s Dream (#7). Competing in the same Jan. 28 race as horses like Twirling Vine and Z Dancer, he was angled inward on the backstretch to race behind horses and just seemed to resent the sloppy kickback. That was a poor effort, but he had shown a bit more ability in his prior two starts over fast going. He’s obviously been a disappointment overall, since he took money in those races and failed to deliver. Yet perhaps more ground will suit him. His damside pedigree is all sprint, but Bellamy Road is a strong 18% dirt route sire. He has more size and scope to him than other members of this female family, so perhaps going longer will be his true calling.
Fair Value:
#7 FLIP'S DREAM, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 7
Though it was previously reported that he would likely scratch, David Jacobson has elected to scratch the other half of his entry and run Quality Chic (#1), who seems likely to go favored. This horse will be tough to beat if he produces the form that carried him to narrow losses in the Queens County and Stymie. He did run poorly at this level between those two races, but he got the wrong trip over a wet track that day. If he shows up, he'll be tough to handle. Main rival Olympic Dreams (#2) just seems like a reliable option going the distance at this level. He finally got back on a fast track last time after a couple of respectable performances over sloppy going, which probably isn’t his preference. However, he caught a sharp rival in Law Professor, who was beating him for the second time in a row. He gets away from that one here and perhaps that will be enough to get him back to the winner’s circle. Tabeguache (#4) is tougher to trust after putting in a poor effort behind his main rival last time. It’s hard to use the sloppy track as an excuse, since he had previously handled such going without issue. Perhaps he bounces back for a dangerous barn, but I didn’t want to take a short price on him. I’m getting more creative for my top pick. Curlin’s Wisdom (#3) is admittedly hard to recommend off his recent form, but there are a couple of angles that offer some hope. One is that he figures to finally get back on a fast track, and it appears well established at this point that he fails to handle wet, sealed surfaces. The other angle to consider is that he gets Lasix back, and his last four efforts without Lasix have all been disasters. There is of course a possibility that he’s no longer capable of producing his best form, but he does figure to be a big price and he’s finally back in a spot where he used to be competitive.
Fair Value:
#3 CURLIN'S WISDOM, at 9-1 or greater
RACE 8
The scratch of Chuck Willis significantly alters this race's pace scenario, since he was undoubtedly the quickest of the potential frontrunners. That results in a horse like Jemography (#6) meriting additional consideration now that he's likely to have a much more comfortable trip towards the front end. He has been facing slightly tougher company and this drop in class makes him a logical player. I could also see Seven Nation Army (#5) getting the right kind of tracking trip after chasing some talented rivals at this level last time. His recent form for Charlton Baker has left something to be desired but perhaps he's capable of better second off the layoff. Form is the major question for many horses in this $32k claimer, many of which run plenty of races in their past that would put them in the winner’s circle here. Mister J T (#1) might be one that’s actually headed in the right direction as he makes his second start off a layoff. He has primarily been most competitive in cheaper claiming races than this, but it is interesting that his connections got so ambitious off the layoff last time, running him in an N1X allowance. He wasn’t disgraced finishing fifth and might be capable of better as he drops into a more realistic spot. My top pick is another horse in solid form. Bustin Shout (#2) is stepping up in class after competing in a series of $16k and $25k claiming events. Yet he’s earned his chance against tougher company after running deceptively well in a few races surrounding that lone recent victory on Jan. 4. He didn’t get an ideal trip that day, held up in traffic until upper stretch before unleashing his rally. Then last time he was racing wide against a rail bias against a solid rival in Writer’s Regret, who returned to finish a respectable third against allowance company. Bustin Shout is making his first start off the claim for Wayne Potts, retaining regular pilot Gokhan Kocakaya, and I like the confidence being displayed with this class hike, especially in light of that quick workout 10 days ago.
Fair Value:
#2 BUSTIN SHOUT, at 3-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 4 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 5 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 3: 3 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 4: 2 - 5 - 1
Race 5: 7 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 6: 4 - 9 - 5 - 8
Race 7: 7 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 8: 8 - 4 - 6 - 5
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 5
The likely favorite in this $20k claimer is Colloquy (#3), who is just getting logical class relief after failing to break through at the New York-bred N2X allowance condition after a series of attempts. His form may also not be as bad as it seems, since he has caught wet tracks in 3 consecutive starts, and that’s probably not his preferred going. He has won going this 9-furlong distance before, but he did in a pretty soft allowance race. He might be slightly better around one turn, but I doubt it will be the distance that causes his defeat at this level. I just think he’s running into a tough rival in Majestic Frontier (#7). This Ralph D'Alessandro trainee has really come to hand over the last few starts for this barn. He was impressive coming up the rail to win at Finger Lakes in October with a career-best effort. He didn’t run as well off a layoff two back when he came to Aqueduct, but he’s another who doesn’t seem to relish a wet, sealed track. He got back on fast going last time and produced another career top, rallying to just miss against a tough field for this level. He was a big price that day and figures to be shorter this time. Yet I really like him stretching back out around two turns. Unlike some others in this field, he’s done most of his best work in two turn races during his career. That last workout on March 9 suggests that he’s continuing to thrive, and he gets a rider upgrade to Trevor McCarthy.
Fair Value:
#7 MAJESTIC FRONTIER, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 6
Colonel Vargo (#8) is the enigmatic likely favorite in this $12,500 claimer. He looked like a horse that was on his way up the class ladder last fall, on the cusp of competing against tougher allowance optional claiming types. However, after winning 4 dirt races in a row culminating with that N1X victory on Nov. 24, things started to go awry. He disappointed when shipped to Oaklawn in December, and then lost at a short price at Parx. Jacobson was seemingly ready to give up last time, as he dropped him sharply in class down to the $10k level. He got the job done, but he was inside early in that race on Jan. 18, which featured an extremely strong rail bias. He did drift off the inside in the stretch and started tiring in an underwhelming victory. He was a voided claim that day and now is back at a similarly cheap price tag. He’s the horse to beat, but I’m skeptical he can maintain this form. There is also other speed to make the favorite work early. Striking Speed, Charlie Five O, and Mr Phil all want to be forwardly placed along with him. Dynamite Karma (#9) is another who could be part of the pace, but at least he’s drawn well outside of those rivals. While this gelding’s recent form might lead some to believe he doesn’t want to sprint, he didn’t get a great trip when he tried 6 furlongs recently at Laurel. He ran much better going a mile last time at Penn National against a decent field, only to get leg weary late. I don’t mind the turnback for him, and he appears to fit based on class. If this race comes apart, there are some closer to consider. First Deputy (#5) owns the best recent race of those, having won at this level last time on Feb. 25. That was probably the right day to have him, as he went off at generous 5-1 odds off an against-the-bias trip two back in that Jan. 18 race own by Colonel Vargo. Another horse coming out of that same race is F F Rocket (#4), who actually ran better than First Deputy in defeat. Like that runner, he was also race 3 to 4-wide in that Jan. 18 event, run on a day that featured one of the strongest rail biases of the meet. Yet unlike First Deputy, F F Rocket never gave up despite that trip, passing horses through the stretch to finish a very respectable fourth. This horse has always been dangerous whenever he’s entered at the appropriate class level in races that feature some pace. I also like that he’s claimed back by Lolita Shivmangal, who is one of the most underrated trainers on the NYRA circuit from a value standpoint. She had success with him in 2023, and I find it encouraging that she’s keeping him at a level at which he can win.
Fair Value:
#4 F F ROCKET, at 4-1 or greater
#9 DYNAMITE KARMA, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 8
Those with experience in this state-bred maiden claimer haven’t shown much on the track. A number of them exit that Feb. 19 maiden claimer won by Snarky, and I’m reluctant to take anyone from that affair. I suppose horses like Necessaryandproper (#5) deserves credit for sticking around after at least chasing the quick pace that day. Yet it came up a very slow pace and the entire field was staggering to the wire. If I’m going to take anyone with prior race experience, it is Jen’s Kiss (#8). And her experience isn’t much to write home out, as she was basically eased on debut. However, she was competing against a much tougher field than this at the $40k maiden claiming level. That was Jan. 18, which featured one of the strongest rail biases of the entire meet, and she was chasing 4-wide every step of the way. She was beaten a long way, but that trip was likely a large contributing factor to the result. She now adds blinkers for the second start, and there’s a good chance that she’s a lot better than she showed on debut. I’m expecting a much better performance this time. The only other horses I would even consider are first time starters. Knight Trail (#6) has a decent pedigree, being by Solomini out of a dam who has produced dirt sprint winner Messi the Magician. Stoney Lonesome (#4) goes out for a barn that hasn’t had much success with newcomers, but at least she’s by 17% debut sire Bustin Stones. You don’t need much to latch onto to support a horse in this field, and at least I know the angle that leads me to Jen’s Kiss has proven to be potent.
Fair Value:
#8 JEN'S KISS, at 3-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 5 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 2: 5 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 3: 1 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 4: 1 - 6 - 3 - 7
Race 5: 2 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 6: 1 - 5 - 4
Race 7: 8 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 8: 2 - 4 - 8 - 9
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
Smokin’ Hot Kitty (#3) is clearly the horse to beat in this conditioned claimer as she drops a bit in class out of a series of races at the $35k level. She was meeting tougher company in those races and she will be tough to handle if she replicates those speed figures against this field. However, she has to do it stretching out to a mile, and she’s never gone this far on dirt before. She was a route winner on turf, but she was also effective sprinting, and routing on dirt can often be more taxing on a horse’s stamina. Her class might just carry her through here, but she’s going to be a very short price and I think there are others to consider. Shigeko (#4) looked like she was being too ambitiously spotted in a pair of New York-bred allowance races recently, but she actually ran quite well last time behind the reliable Kara Para. A repeat of that performance probably makes her the horse to beat, and she won’t be favored. I’m also intrigued by the pair exiting that Feb. 16 race at the $14k level. This is a weak race for the level, so I’m not too concerned about the rise in price tag. Shoopthereitis (#6) made a decent run for fourth and has run well going longer before. Yet Memento Mi (#5) might be the right one to take out of that race. She was somewhat with the flow in a race that went to closers, but she was actually more forward on the backstretch before getting shuffled back around the turn. She had to regather her momentum when switching outside and was finishing best of all late. She also ran better than it might appear two back at Laurel when unwisely glued to the rail by an apprentice. This barn has sent out some live runners at prices and she gets an interesting rider switch to Andrew Wolfsant.
Fair Value:
#5 MEMENTO MI, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 4
At his best, Ouster (#6) is clearly good enough to handle a field like this. He really came to hand last winter when winning 3 of 4 starts, culminating with a 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure last March. He moved up to face some tougher rivals after that and also stretched out in distance. He handled the added ground over sloppy going at Saratoga before throwing in a rare poor effort when last seen in August going 1 1/4 miles. He now cuts all the way back to a sprint for his return, which might actually suit him. He just has to be ready off the layoff for a barn that doesn’t have great stats doing this, so I wouldn’t want to take a short price. There isn’t a ton of pace signed on in this 7-furlong optional claimer, which makes Midlaner (#3) dangerous. However, he's gotten good trips in his last two starts and has lost without excuses. Perhaps he can slow down the pace going 7 furlongs, but I'd still want a generous price on him. I’m hoping there’s enough pace in here to give Beachwalker (#1) a fair chance. He was a crazy overlay when he won a $40k claiming race last time, drifting up to 8-1 as the remaining half of an entry. He bounced back from a poor showing in his prior start to be much more engaged throughout, displaying a strong kick through the lane. I’m encouraged that Jacobson is now moving him up in class off that victory. Jacobson is 8 for 25 (32%, $3.13 ROI) with last-out winners going from claiming to allowance races over the last 5 years. He’s as good as anyone in here on his day and this 7-furlong distance is perfect for him.
Fair Value:
#1 BEACHWALKER, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 7
I’m just not thrilled with the horses who are likely to take money in this spot. Ghostbustin (#1) seems to get bet every time and she’s run well in all four of her starts. Yet she hasn’t justified the prices she’s been in her two prior attempts at this level. She really didn’t have much of an excuse last time when she was battling with a longshot how actually outfinished her to be second. Now she’s drawn the rail with speed outside of her. Mouly (#4) might be the one to beat off her last effort against starter allowance company. It’s just fair to wonder where that race came from and whether she can be expected to repeat it, since her prior form doesn’t exactly make her a top contender against this field. She does have the ability to rate and finish, which should help her cause, but I thought others would offer better value. Liberty Flame (#3) is another who seems to be coming into this race back in top form, and at least she should be a better price. She got a confidence boost when dropping in against $10k claimers two back, and carried that form back to this level last time when closing for third despite racing out of position early. She has to work out a trip in a race with other speed, but must be respected in her current form. Foxy Cara (#2) probably isn’t a strong win candidate given her tendency to settle for minor awards, but she ran some races at the maiden level that would make her competitive against this field, including a few starts where she finished within range of Ghostbustin. Her speed figures have tailed off a bit lately, but she could get the right trip in here. My top pick is Easy Play (#8). She lost all chance at the start last time when stumbled very badly, and was lucky to even keep her rider. Her prior effort isn’t quite as bad as it seems either, since she was conservatively ridden, restrained early before going wide on the turn. She’s much better when she's ridden aggressively, so hopefully Dylan Davis will send her forward this time. She’s raced competitively at this level in the past and some may unfairly dismiss her as having gone off form when she’ss had legitimate excuses.
Fair Value:
#8 EASY PLAY, at 6-1 or greater
#3 LIBERTY FLAME, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 8
I'm not trying to beat Gentleman Joe (#2), who might inherit the favorite's role after the scratch of American Law. This 8-year-old has serious back class, earning some big speed figures for prior connections in his past. He went off form between 2022 and 2023, but he seemed to get back on track when returning from a layoff for Rick Dutrow earlier this winter. That Dec. 10 effort is better than it might appear, as the second and third place finishers both returned to run well in subsequent starts, and Gentleman Joe soundly defeated them. He then delivered another good effort at the $40k level last time, just run down in the late stages by a longshot. Yet the 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned makes him every bit as fast as the favorite. He was claimed by David Jacobson and given some time between starts. Yet he’s been on a steady work pattern into this race and notably is moving into a protected spot. Jacobson is 7 for 25 (28%, $4.13 ROI) first off the claim in allowance dirt races over the past 5 years. He projects to get a good trip and I think he is clearly the most likely winner. Another horse that I would use in vertical wagers with the top pick is Skylander (#4). He still has to prove that he can recapture the strong form that he found last fall, when he impressively won a starter allowance before outrunning his 44-1 odds in an N1X allowance. While the results have been poor since returning from a layoff, he’s been in some tough spots and might be getting mild class relief here. I would just demand a generous price given the low-profile connections. Allaboutthemoney (#8) is another possible value option. He finished 5 lengths behind American Law last time, but he never looked totally comfortable racing behind the leading group, and had trouble angling into the clear through the stretch. He does seem to do his best running when he can get over to the rail, which might not happen from a wide draw. Yet drawing outside might give him an opportunity to attain better forward position, as he did when he won two back.
Fair Value:
#2 GENTLEMAN JOE, at 9-5 or greater
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