TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 3

I didn't want to settle for short prices on either entity that figures to vie for favoritism in this $32k claimer. Chelonian (#5)took advantage of a perfect trip when he scooted up the rail to win over a muddy track last time. He clearly relished the going that day, which he has in the past, and I want to see him produce that kind of effort again before taking a much shorter price. I'm certainly afraid of the Ilkay Kantarmaci entry, particularly with Margin of Air (#2) making his first start off the claim for owners that have had great success with that move. However, both of these horses have to turn their form around, and they're going to be poor value paired together as part of an entry. Legal Deal (#3) is a little more appealing as he returns to the NYRA circuit after a poor showing at Laurel last time. His form following the claim by Horacio De Paz makes him a strong fit in this spot. I just don't love that he drew the rail again, since he's a horse who sometimes reacts negatively to racing inside of rivals. My top pick is Royal Tryst (#7). I'm a little concerned about his running style, since he tends to drop so far back in the early stages of his races. However, a lot of that has to do with the fact that he's been sprinting recently. I know he had some initial success when they turned him back a couple of seasons ago, but he is a horse who once was capable of going longer and he's always been bred to love added ground. I actually like him returning to this one-mile distance, and the outside post may help him stay a little more engaged early, especially with an aggressive rider like Ricardo Santana aboard.

Fair Value:
#7 ROYAL TRYST, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 4

It's hard to trust anyone in this perplexing $50k claimer where few appear to actually be worth that much anymore. There isn't much speed signed on for a sprint, so horses like Scheduling Dude (#1) and On the Ledge (#3) must be considered strong contenders even though they're unproven at this level. Scheduling Dude found himself chasing a high quality filly last time and paid the price late. This might be some minor class relief for him. On the Ledge is definitely moving up in class, but he won that return so convincingly, this might just be the level at which he belongs now. I'm using them, but the horse that I find most intriguing is Slip Mahoney (#2). This is just a very strange spot for him to show up. This horse has been eased in three consecutive races going much longer distances. He was claimed out of that last race for $32k, and it's not like there's some layoff after that to serve as an excuse. Yet Ilkay Kantarmaci, who has had great success claiming horses in recent months, immediately brings him back rising in class up to this $50k level. He's also turning back to a sprint distance for the first time since his career debut. It all seems pretty counterintuitive, and sometimes those moves turn out to be good signs. While I am slightly concerned about the turnback, this horse does possess good tactical speed going longer, so I don't expect him to get significantly outrun early. He appears to be having some sort of issue finishing off his races (bleeding or breathing, perhaps) and shortening up could alleviate that problem.

Fair Value:
#2 SLIP MAHONEY, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 5

Competitive Threat (#11) figures to be a pretty decisive favorite in this maiden claimer as she drops in for a tag for the first time. She's had some trouble putting her races together, as she has needed layoffs between each start. She looked like a horse with some upside when she began her career at the Meadowlands in the fall of her 2-year-old season, but now she's a 4-year-old who hasn't progressed as much as you'd like to see since then. She did meet a pretty strong field of males when she was last seen in March, fading to third behind Padiddle, who returned to finish third in a pair of graded stakes. She obviously will be tough to beat if she produces her good effort against this group, but I'm a little concerned that her strengths won't come through as strongly at this shorter distance. Among her main rivals is Yolo (#1), who also drops in for a tag for the first time. This filly's primary weakness is her lack of early speed, but she is a relentless finisher who has been picking up pieces against tougher competition than she meets here. She drew better than the Chad Brown favorite, and she's getting back on a surface that she may prefer after competing on synthetic over the winter. My top pick is Sailaway (#10), another filly dropping in for a tag after some maiden special weight attempts. She just got tired in her debut on synthetic, and then was always out of position when she made her turf debut at Gulfstream. She attained much better forward position when she came to Aqueduct last time, but Kendrick Carmouche made a strange decision to rein her in down the backstretch, allowing her pursuers to run right past. She took up a stalking position in the pocket, but was unable to make up that ground in the stretch. The winner of that affair, Midway Memories, looks like a stakes-bound filly for the Chad Brown stable, so I won't fault Sailaway for losing to that foe. She should make better use of her tactical speed from to get inside position from her outside draw, and she's dropping to a realistic level.

Fair Value:
#10 SAILAWAY, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 6

I typically would gravitate towards lightly raced options in a field like this, but I don't find any of them to be particularly compelling in this particular race. Gun Barrel City (#2) has the pedigree to be a turf stakes horse, but he was pretty dull on debut last fall, just picking up pieces at one pace. He would have to do a lot better here off the layoff. Van Ginkel (#4)improved with the switch to turf last time, but he was still no match for the winner with a pretty good trip and I wonder how much upside he has on this surface. Royal's Pride (#9) lacked a turn of foot on debut at Tampa, but he was at least catching a very tough field for the level. He has a right to improve in his second start. My top pick Good as He Gets (#5) is more experienced than most of this field, but that experience has come on the dirt. He only tried turf once last fall when still in the barn of Ned Allard. He settled for third, but his effort represented a significant improvement over his prior dirt form. He was also beaten by a pair of talented runners who both came back to win their next starts, flattering the form. He has since improved on dirt for Rudy Rodriguez, and now he's switching back to the surface that may be his preference while also getting a rider upgrade to Joel Rosario.

Fair Value:
#5 GOOD AS HE GETS, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 8

Just as he was in both starts last year, Rhetorical (#12) figures to be a very short price as he returns from a layoff. This horse was touted on debut at Saratoga when he won so impressively despite getting off slowly and working out a wide trip. He was hammered down to odds-on status when he came back against winners and some will say he was an unlucky loser of that race. He did have to swing pretty wide coming to the quarter pole, but he had saved ground before that. He still looked like he was going to sail past the leaders in the final furlong, and he just seemed to hang when he finally reached them in the final strides. Perhaps that lack of finish across the line is related to the subsequent layoff. He obviously has the talent to win at this level, but now he's drawn outside needing to prove he's still the same horse we saw last summer. Calling Card (#2) is a logical alternative as he gets back to turf. The connections got a little too ambitious with him on the Derby trail this spring, but he had shown some ability on grass early in his career and deserves another chance on this surface. My top pick is Leo's Reward (#4), who is also drawn in a much better post position than the favorite. He doesn't have much pedigree for turf, but he did seem to take to the surface pretty well last time. He got to save ground, but he still stayed on well for third behind the highly talented Friend Of the Devil. He had been proficient going route distances on dirt this winter, which requires some stamina, so I like him stretching out on turf here. He has the tactical speed to get forward and work out the right trip to pull of a minor upset.

Fair Value:
#4 LEO'S REWARD, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 9

Battle Drum (#2) does little for me as the potential favorite in this finale. He does own some superior turf speed figures, but those are all going two turns. I don't love horses turning back in distance after spending so much time in longer races, especially one that draws the rail and seems likely to get outrun early. I'm intrigued by a couple of alternatives to this runner. One of those is Stanley Cat (#3), whose lone turf start might not look like much of an effort based on the result. Yet he had quite a trip that day, as he tried to lug out around both turns, ultimately bolting at the quarter pole and losing all chance. He had shown sprint ability on dirt early in his career, and he's bred to be a turf horse, by sneaky 18% turf sprint sire Stanford. Perhaps Katie Davis can get him to keep a straighter course here. My top pick is Sounds Like Fun (#10), who gets back to turf for the first time since his career debut. That performance wasn't very good, but his subsequent dirt efforts were similarly lackluster. He has just improved significantly as a racehorse in the overall sense since that inauspicious start to his career. His last race was his best effort yet, staying on well for second after issuing a serious challenge in upper stretch. He probably doesn't even want to go a mile, so I like him getting back to a sprint. I also think switching back to turf could benefit him, since he has the action of a grass horse and is by decent turf sire Funtastic. John Pregman's barn has been subtly live since the return of turf season, and this colt should be a fair price.

Fair Value:
#10 SOUNDS LIKE FUN, at 4-1 or greater
#3 STANLEY CAT, at 10-1 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 4

Between the two wagering interests who figure to attract the most support, I do prefer Dolomite (#6) to the Linda Rice entry led by Save Us Melania (#1A). Dolomite is stepping up in class out of New York-bred company, but she faced some pretty strong rivals in that last start. She just has to progress marginally from a speed figure standpoint and negotiate a slightly shorter distance than she has in any of her recent starts, both reasons why I don't think she'll offer value. Save Us Melania has posted the best speed figures of anyone in this field, but she's primarily done so going longer and she's not the most reliable sort to hold her form from race to race. My top pick is Proud Foot (#3). She had raced competitively against higher allowance levels than this going back to last spring. Lately she's struggled to get out of the gate cleanly, but she's still run deceptively well even without ideal trips. She put in a strong effort to finish third on Feb. 1 after blowing the start before catching a very sharp Striker Has Dial two back. She dropped down to this level last time to race for a tag, and was claimed by Fernando Abreu, who has good statistics with his new acquisitions. She has to get out of the gate cleaner to have her best chance here, but I think she stacks up against this group well from a class standpoint.

Fair Value:
#3 PROUD FOOT, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 8

If this race stays on the grass, the field is led by a pair of runners coming off significant layoffs. Miztertonic (#7) and Mr Flowers (#8) both have form from the second half of last season that make them legitimate contenders in this spot. They're just not the easiest horses to trust going out for barns that don't exactly excel coming off these types of layoffs. Miztertonic needed a start when he returned from a freshening last year, and Mr Flowers' trainer Jamie Ness has a particularly poor record off extended layoffs considering his typical win rate. My top pick is Omey Island (#6). I've been waiting to get this gelding getting back on the turf, and he has a recency edge on many of his rivals as he now switches back to this surface. The one concern is the presence of some other speed in this field, but I'm not convinced that he necessarily needs to be in front to have his best chance. He ran very well going 9 furlongs last time, a distance on dirt that is likely too far for him. He was then game to hold second behind a superior dirt rival last time. His early turf races in California are all better than they look, since he got wide trips, especially in that lone two-turn attempt. He's bred to be effective over this surface.

Fair Value:
#6 OMEY ISLAND, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 9

Mighty Atlas (#5) has to be considered the horse to beat in this New York-bred allowance optional claimer after winning at this level in his most recent start. He now races for the optional $45k tag in this same condition. He's gotten back into top form for the Mike Miceli barn after tailing off earlier this winter. His versatile running style should ensure that he works out a fair trip, and he just makes plenty of sense as a contender. The only downside is that he's coming in with exposed form and figures to get bet accordingly. Todd Pletcher sends out a pair of entrants, of which Crimson Light (#4)figures to be the much shorter price. This colt turned many heads on debut over a year ago when he veered into the rail at the start and recovered to rally from far back past the entire field. It took him 15 months to get back to the races, but he registered a vastly improved speed figure in his return last month. He's now stepping up in class, still with upside, but he figures to be a short price still with something to prove. My top pick is his Pletcher-trained stablemate Lotsa Trouble (#3). This gelding's form looks pretty inconsistent at first glance, but he's had excuses in his poor efforts and has run better than it may look in a few of those recent results. He obviously wanted no part of going 9 furlongs when he was still cycling back into form following his return last fall. He got that confidence booster against claimers in December, and since has been in two incredibly difficult spots in a row. No one was beating subsequent stakes winner Whatchatalkinabout in that 6-furlong event at this level, but Lotsa Trouble was running on best of all across the wire. Last time he again found himself too far back in the early stages, but was finishing with good interest behind a breakout performance from winner Quick to Accuse. Both of those races are color-coded as featuring slow paces in TimeformUS, which clearly doesn't suit him. He hasn't yet won at this one-mile distance, but he produced a career-best 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure at this trip last time. I think he's capable of better here as long as Ricardo Santana, Jr. keeps him a bit more engaged early.

Fair Value:
#3 LOTSA TROUBLE, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 10

She's Our Tiz (#8) figures to improve second off the layoff as she stretches out. She got steadied at the start and was always out of position last time when she made her return going 6 furlongs. She finished pretty well to rally up into third, just running out of ground at the end. While she did win sprinting early in her career, she seemed to improve with distance late last season, particularly in that closing third-place effort in the Chelsey Flower. She now looks set for a better effort, adding Lasix for this start. I also think Intentious (#3) could improve stretching out from the same race. She was effective going longer distances on dirt last year at Finger Lakes, and just seemed too one-paced for that sprint on grass last time. She at least took to the surface, but still has to prove she can run fast enough to beat a group of this quality. Another horse making her second grass start who I definitely want to use is Trail of Gold (#9). She switched to turf for the first time in her last start, showing marked improvement despite getting a less than ideal trip. She got hung out 3-wide around both turns with no cover, and was still staying on at the end despite that difficult journey. Now she adds Lasix for her next grass start. She's unfortunately drawn in another outside post, but I'm hoping Jose Gomez makes saving ground more of a priority this time. My top pick is Cara's Dreamweaver (#4), who hasn't been on turf since last summer. She was initially intended to be a turf horse before improving on dirt this winter. She clearly handled turf in her career debut when staying on for second behind today's rival She's Our Tiz despite a wide trip. She showed some signs of life on dirt over the winter, but her last race was a massive step forward in her progression. She showed newfound early speed, nearly wiring a field at 23-1. She got an aggressive ride that day from Ruben Silvera, who is an underrated turf jockey. If she can bring that form back to turf, she's a contender at a price once again.

Fair Value:
#4 CARA'S DREAMWEAVER, at 8-1 or greater
#9 TRAIL OF GOLD, at 6-1 or greater