TimeformUS Race Analysis
David Aragona posts his picks & plays each live race day.
Friday, April 3
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
Perhaps it's unwise to look beyond the two favorites in this race because the others all have pretty significant knocks against them. However, it's not like these two shortest prices are exactly reliable either. Gran Judgment (#2) has never run on dirt, and while she did face a better field in her synthetic debut I don't have a ton of confidence that she'll run as well on this surface. She's in here to get claimed, suggesting the connections don’t have terribly high hopes for her. Khali's Storm (#6) was scratched a couple of weeks ago and runs here instead. She has the best prior races in this field, but she's 0 for 13 and has needed a start off layoffs in the past. I'm going to try to get Combatant's Song (#1) to improve enough to beat the two favorites. She's had some excuses, since she was wide against a rail bias on debut, then caught a sloppy track, and last time was taken up after the start. She seems primed to run a career-best race here and I don't mind the switch to Dalila Rivera, since she now gets 13 pounds from one of her main rivals.
RACE 2
The favorites in this $25k conditioned claimer don't do much for me. Mercilesanihilator (#2) has had his chances and disappointed since the claim by Linda Rice. This stretch-out to a mile feels like some desperation, but based on his breeding I won't be surprised if he handles it. I was more interested in some of the bigger prices in this small field. Raging Sea Captain (#2) was pretty impressive for the level when he broke his maiden going this distance. He didn't break well and made a big move in the first half of the race to take over. He was simply overmatched last time but also wide against the rail bias, and now he's dropping down to the right level. I'm using him, but my top pick is Never Say Uncle (#5). He won impressively, albeit with a slow figure, when he broke his maiden in December. From there, he was in over his head against Sculco's Folly, and last time he was never on the rail over the inside-biased track. He's always struck me as a horse that wants longer, and he's certainly bred for that as a half-brother to Walk With Me. I think he's going to improve at a mile.
RACE 3
This will be an interesting race to watch, but I don't have a strong recommendation for a bet. The three likely favorites all seem legitimate, and none of them figure to be particularly interesting prices. Who's Your Daddy (#4) does get some extra credit for racing wide against the rail bias last time, but he was also a little green through the lane, reacting to the crop. Sfumato (#2) and Judge Boushay (#3) exit the same Feb. 28 sprint, and the latter just ran a little better, overcoming a slow start to close into third. He's bred to go longer, and Eric Cancel tends to give his best rides for the Chad Brown barn.
RACE 4
It's mostly guesswork in this maiden affair, as the top contenders are all first time starters. The experienced Smart Sugar (#3) isn't impossible, but I figured one of the firsters would prove to be superior. Asset Light (#1) seems like the better meant of the two Chad Brown runners, and she's certainly bred to win early even though there's some turf on the dam's side. (That's a theme among all four debutantes.) The one who may take the most money is Lights Out Leni (#4), who has been working well down in Florida for Chad Summers. This daughter of Speightstown seems quick, but she has to get 6 1/2 furlongs on debut. I put Jet Mist (#5) on top since she figures to be the best price of the expected live firsters. Carlos Martin isn't known for winning on debut, but he can do so on occasion. That $220k price tag is a lot to pay for a progeny of Frosted, but she has some good speed and win-early pedigree on the dam's side. The workouts suggest there's ability here.
RACE 5
I'm not going to make too strong of a push for anyone in this spot. Yolo (#5) is the horse to beat based on her runner-up finish at this level two back. I normally wouldn't care too much about her poor effort at Turfway last time, but she did run well over that track earlier in her career. I do wonder if she was cranked to win off the bench and may be going backwards now. Her main rivals are all 3-year-olds who haven't run as fast. Flee (#2) finished decently last time and may appreciate stretching out to a mile. I instead went with Icy Legs (#7), who already has plenty of experience going this far. She didn't run well last time, but at was a deceptively strong field for the level. She performed best for apprentice Dalila Rivera two back, and she gets back on board here. The Jose Jimenez barn was also pretty live last week.
RACE 6
The two Ilkay Kantarmaci runners appear to be the controlling speeds in this race, and might be the two best horses anyway. Spirit of Esther (#7) is the more logical of the pair, but she never wins and has lost some races she should have won at short prices. I'm hoping that Tammy's Cruiser (#5) is the one who gets sent to the front since she's drawn inside of her stablemate, and maybe Spirit of Esther will just be reluctant to go by. This mare has run reasonably well going longer in the past even though she hasn't tried it in a while.
RACE 7
I don't have a major knock against likely favorite Playa Del Mar (#4). He obviously has compiled a body of work that makes him the horse to beat, especially if he can get back to any of his better races for the Bill Mott barn. However, he's gone through the claim box a couple of times since then and his form appears to be tailing off slightly. He didn't run that well two back when he was sluggish despite spending time on the rail. He was racing over a speed-biased track last time out, but I still wanted to see him put up more of a fight as the favorite. Now he's going out for Linda Rice off the claim, but that will only drive down his price. Rice's other entrant Antietam (#6) just broke his maiden last time out, but he wasn't beating the strongest field. On the other hand, he is improving with each start since the claim by Rice, and it's interesting that her preferred rider Jose Lezcano lands on this horse instead of the favorite. My top pick is Egyptian (#5). He's primarily been competing at lower levels than this, but I like the confidence being displayed as he moves up in class off the claim for Rick Dutrow, Jr. This barn obviously has strong statistics with new acquisitions, and I think this horse has run better than it might appear in a few prior starts. He didn't get the best ride last time when the jockey overcommitted to the rail path, getting glued to the inside waiting for room in traffic. Not only is Dutrow taking over the trainer, but he now gets a significant jockey upgrade to leading New York rider Manny Franco.
RACE 8
I'm not thrilled with the two horses who I have as the first and second choices on the morning line. Skylander (#2) owns some of the best overall form, but I wonder if he's going to maintain his condition since getting claimed by Wayne Potts, whose barn has gone colder in the last couple of months. Brew Pub (#7) had his chance to win last time and was no match for winner Hey Toby. Texas Red Hot (#6) just picked up pieces for second, but did run a little better in that same race. He's a possibility if pace develops. Horses like Aleah Aleah (#3) and Sagamore Mischief (#5) could ensure they go quickly up front, and that's a concern for my top pick. However, I don't trust either of those speeds, and I do think Bar Fourteen (#4) has had some legitimate excuses in his recent starts. He was simply in over his head at the $25k level two back, and last time he found himself chasing wide against the rail bias while Aleah Aleah was glued to the rail. It wasn't that long ago that he was running speed figures that would beat this field, and now he's back in a realistic spot. I don't know if he can win rating or if he neve needs to, but I'll find out at what should be a decent price.
Thursday, April 2
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
We're down to a match race in the opener. Victory Way (#5) will likely inherit favoritism now. He was wide against a rail bias in his Toboggan loss on Feb. 6. He's probably better than that result, but I did think his prior win in December was accomplished against a weaker field than this. I prefer his only rival El Grande O (#1). He's another who was chasing outside against the rail bias in his last start. He also didn't get a great trip when finishing fourth in the Elite Power, as he was shuffled back and stuck on the rail. He showed he can win at this level in October, and I'm hoping he can rebound to that form as he's reunited with Flavien Prat.
RACE 2
Always Angels (#3) is the one to beat as she drops in class after facing much tougher allowance optional claiming foes last time. While she won going a mile two back, she's probably better off at shorter distances so this turnback to 7 furlongs should suit her. I'm not against her, but I do think both Rick Dutrow runners are intriguing. Beira (#2) should take more money with Prat aboard, but I wonder if she'll need this start off a layoff. She's in for the waiver here, and her overall form isn't as compelling as some others. I think Proud Foot (#1) is the better horse between the two. I know she tailed off a bit in the second half of 2025, but she ran better than it looks when last seen in December. She got shuffled on the far turn of that race and actually finished well. She had been a vet scratch in March, so she's been ready to run for a while. Manny Franco tends to get more live mounts for this barn than Prat.
RACE 3
I'm not trying to beat Devils Arrow (#3). She's stepping up in class, but she's supposed to play out as the main speed. She hasn't yet won going two turns, but this daughter of Arrogate is supposed to appreciate the added distance. She showed stamina to pull clear last time after stalking 2-wide against the rail bias early. Grace Reformed (#2) may step forward second off the layoff, but she could be at a pace disadvantage if no one goes with the favorite.
RACE 4
Horses like Linda Rice trainees Noguchi (#2) and Good Cop (#4) just don't do much for me. They've both had their chances to win at this level and it feels like we've already seen the best they have to offer. The former Linda Rice runner Cat Fast (#7) goes first off the claim for Horacio De Paz, but I can't say that I love this horse's recent efforts. He lacks speed, but a few of his remaining rivals do want to be forward. I do think he'll appreciate stretching back out to a mile, and he's the only good alternative to the flawed Rice pair.
RACE 5
Irish Jackson (#4) figures to be the favorite once again after she was overbet off the layoff last time. She obviously fits well at this level and may do better with that start under her belt. I'm just not sure that she really wants to go a mile. I have similar questions about Undergrad (#3), who may take some money. However, there's rain in the forecast, and she didn't seem to handle a wet track last time. Heavenly Light (#5) is a solid option who obviously gets the distance. She's moving up in class slightly, but her form fits well here. The only drawback is that she's claimed away from Brad Cox. I instead want to bet Tahila (#6) at a better price. I know she looks a little slower than some of the main rivals, but she's another who has no problem getting a mile. She ran well to break her maiden two back, beating the track bias. Then last time she didn't get the best ride, making an early move after an awkward break. She was finishing better than the running line might suggest through the final furlong. This could also be a race with a fair pace, and she would appreciate that.
RACE 6
I've never been the biggest fan of New York Scrappy (#6), especially as a dirt horse. However, he does seem to fit pretty well against this bunch. There isn't much speed signed on here, and he may be in position to control the pace on the front end. It might appear that he's much more proficient on wet tracks, but I actually think he's best when he can control the pace on a clear lead. That figures to be the case this time. Main rival Oath of Omerta (#7) should be stalking him early, and he can certainly win if running as well as he did last time. I just don't know if I fully trust him to put top races back to back given his prior inconsistency. Perhaps Solo Dancing (#8) can run better this time. I think he'll appreciate drawing outside after getting bumped at the start and always racing out of position last time. He has to improve a bit, but should be picking up pieces late.
RACE 7
Between the top two finishers from that Mar. 6 race at this level, I prefer Baron of Sealand (#2) to Shadow Dragon (#6). The latter couldn't have gotten a softer trip in victory whereas Baron of Sealand had to weave his way through traffic. Neither should mind this slight turnback to a mile, and they're the two horses to beat. I expect Three B's (#5) to run better here after he got run off his feet sprinting last time. He's better at a mile, and was wide against the rail bias when he tried this level on Feb. 11. I'm using him, but my top pick is Alan Turing (#7). He finished a close fourth behind the two favorites last time, but performed pretty well considering that it was his first start off a brief layoff with just a couple of workouts showing. Nine furlongs is also stretching his stamina past its limit, and he might benefit most from this turnback to a one-turn mile.
RACE 8
There are many questions to be answered in this conditioned claimer that lacks a standout. A horse like St. Brigid's Cross (#1) figures to take money by default given her strong connections, but she's been pretty disappointing since the Brad Cox claim. She, like others, is dropping in class to the lowest level of their careers. That also applies to Rare Society (#3), who drops in for a tag for the first time. There is some rain in the forecast for Thursday, and she didn't appear to love a wet track last time. Yet she also didn't get the right trip, spending too much time on a dead rail. She can rebound here. I'm Kidding (#6) looks like the main speed, but finishing off her races has been a problem this winter. She's another dropping out of a series of allowance races. Early pressure could come from the rail horse as well as Oklahoma Smoke (#4), who returns from a layoff dating back to late 2024. She won her only start, but the time away coupled with the drop in class make her untrustworthy. The horse I want to bet is Mo Attitude (#5). She competed at slightly cheaper levels than this when she made a couple of starts on this circuit in January and February. She didn't run that well in her first local start, but it was just her second appearance following a layoff. She fared better two back when she got up for second despite chasing wide against a rail bias. She returned to Parx last time and put forth one of her best efforts to date, chasing home a runaway winner in a tougher spot than this. If she brings that form back to New York she figures to be a handful.
