TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

Let's hope the speed bias from Thursday has disappeared or else many of these opinions will be rendered moot. I thought the two speeds in this opener could hook up and potentially set things up for one of the closers. Both Sparkling Mama (#1) and Ohoopee (#3) have done their best running from the front, and the track profile from yesterday should prompt both jockeys to ride aggressively. The logical late runner is Hot Gossip (#4), who didn't run very fast when she broke her maiden but did beat the rail bias. That was a better effort than it might appear. I'm using her, but the horse that I think will offer better value is Caradise (#5). She did get a great setup when she beat Ohoopee last time, but she could encounter a similar scenario here. I like her getting an extra furlong, and she figures to be underrated once again.

RACE 2

I struggled with this race because all of the contenders have their flaws. That includes likely favorite Probability (#6), who has now twice lost photo finishes at short prices. Perhaps he will finally break through switching into the Amelia Green barn, but I wouldn't want to be taking over a horse from Will Walden. I'm also not convinced that he'll be as effective turning back to a sprint. My top pick is Executive Move (#4), who obviously has some major questions to answer as he returns from a 16-month layoff. Charlie Baker has decent if unspectacular stats off layoffs, and the horse does appear to be working pretty aggressively for the return. I just like that he actually kept some good company in his prior races. He also was wide against a rail bias when he last raced. (Yes, I still have those trip notes from 2024!)

RACE 3

I suppose Pink Rose (#1) or Mursal (#6) will win if the track is still playing to speed. The former is sure to take money based on the trainer switch to Chad Summers, coupled with that recent bullet workout. However, she was beaten fairly by Mursal last time. Some will hold it against Mursal that she came back and lost despite riding a rail bias, but that was a tougher allowance field. I had wanted to go against both of these with Linda's other horse Pens Street, but I'll give the slight nod to Mursal after she scratched the stablemate.

RACE 4

The lack of early speed in this race could favor the dropdown Nilo's Rose (#4), who has faced significantly better competition in her recent starts. The Pace Projector is predicting that she could be clearly in front in a scenario favoring frontrunners. I do view her as the horse to beat, but I'm just not totally convinced that she's still capable of running the kinds of races we saw from her early in her career. However, she may not need to produce her best form against this field. If the track is still as speed-favoring as it was on Thursday, it may help carry her the one-mile distance. Main rival Soundbite (#6) ran well at a slightly higher level two back in October. The track was favoring inside runners that day, and she did well to close into second behind a gate-to-wire winner. She needed some time off after that, and she was a little dull in her return to the races earlier this month. Yet that was a tougher allowance race and she figures to be fitter second off a layoff as Linda Rice drops her in class. Trainer Antonio Arriaga had entered a pair of contenders in this race, but will only go with one. Baby Sassicaia (#5) hasn't yet hit the board since getting claimed by this barn, but she has run better than it looks a few times. She's been the victim of wide trips in several of her starts, and last time was outside chasing against a strong rail bias on Feb. 13. I can easily forgive that lackluster effort, and her prior form puts her in the mix. She's also getting needed class relief dropping out of a series of starter allowance races.

RACE 5

I'm not trying to beat Gualillo (#7), who I probably priced too high at 7-5 on the morning line. He figures to be a clear favorite here with Prat aboard, especially since most handicappers will realize that he ran a competitive race despite chasing wide against the rail bias last time. That was a much tougher spot than this one, and he should be tough to handle on the drop down. It's just hard to have much faith in main rival Alias (#5), who couldn't win despite taking advantage of the bias last time. If I was going to use a speed, I would rather take a shot with Into Inspiration (#4), who was chasing wide against the bias in that same race. His form has gone the wrong way, but he's had some excuses and ran well enough three back.

RACE 6

Big Hat Willie (#6) seems like a deserving favorite, especially when you consider that his two poor efforts since getting claimed can be both be explained by track biases. He was inside against a dead rail on Jan. 9 and then wide against the gold rail on Feb. 11. While I do think those were legitimate excuses, I still wish he had run a bit better both times, and you do have to reconcile those resounding defeats as he drops in for one of the lowest tags of his career. It would be easier if he didn't figure to be a short price. Clancy Fancy (#3) might play out as the speed if Eric Cancel is aggressive, and he would be tough to beat on yesterday's track. I don't love his overall form, but he does appear to fit this race pretty well. I'm going in a different direction with a horse who may be a crazy pick. After all the trainer of Dolly's Bank (#5) hasn't won a race in the last 5 years. However, this horse is finally getting the class relief that he has long needed. And it's not as if his form has been terrible. He had a valid excuse when hung wide against the rail bias last time. Prior to that, he had finished ahead of Clancy Fancy two back, and was pretty competitive with a much tougher New York-bred allowance field on Dec. 4. He has won sprinting here last winter with Omar Hernandez Moreno aboard.

RACE 7

I didn't have the strongest feel for this race. The Obliterator (#3) is easily the most convincing at this distance, and it's probably a good sign that he's been claimed back by Michael Dubb and Rick Dutrow. I've never been his biggest fan, but he has steadily improved and obviously fits here. I don't like Dutrow's other horse, who didn't beat much and will be bet just because of Prat. The Toy Cannon (#1) looks like a sprinter to me. No Bees (#6) is mildly interesting shipping up from Florida, but it is disconcerting that he was so bad last time in his only start for Saffie Joseph. He's also less than convincing at a mile. I'll instead go with Anyway (#5), who makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice, who does great with this move. She is 12 for 42 (29%, $2.55 ROI) first off the claim with last-out maiden winners on dirt over 5 years. I didn't love the field that this horse beat on debut, but he certainly did it the right way, finishing with a flourish out in the center of the track. He has enough pedigree to go longer and strikes me as one that should handle it.

RACE 8

This finale is one of the most competitive races of the day. Brad Cox has a pair of runners in here and I don't particularly care for either one. St. Brigid's Cross (#1) has been disappointing since the claim, and Cravings (#5) would really need to improve in her first start for this barn. Looking at things through the lens of the recent track bias, both Belloro (#6) andPurple Divine (#7) were against the rail bias during that two-week period in early February. Between those, Purple Divine seems like the one with a little more upside, but both rate as contenders in here. My top pick is Probable Angle (#4), who didn't run badly at all behind Belloro on debut at Saratoga last summer. She needed some time after that, but came back with a strong effort when she broke her maiden here in January. She won despite spending some time on the dead rail, and horses have come back out of that race to improve. She's racing first off the claim for Bruce Brown, who is 9:3-2-1 (33%, $7.36 ROI) with this move over the last year.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

I don't have a major argument against Bounty Banker (#5), who has run speed figures that can win at this level in both prior starts. He didn't have the easiest trip on debut and then closed strongly outside over a rail-biased course last time despite steadying slightly at the quarter pole. He's probably going to win here, but this came up a pretty interesting field for this time of year. There are a few first time starters to consider, including the well-bred Sfumato (#6), who appears to be working well for Bill Mott. Bargain Purchase (#7), debuts for Chad Brown and Klaravich, who are 10 for 32 (31%, $2.82 ROI) with 3YO first time starters on dirt at Aqueduct over 5 years. I'm going in a different direction with another horse with experience. Nowucme Nowudont (#3) didn't get much of a speed figure for his turf debut last summer at Saratoga, but that race may have been a bit better than it looks. Runner-up Lawyer Mason came back to win and was subsequently competitive against stakes company. This Maker trainee was trying to close into a very slow pace after getting away slowly, so he performed even better than the result suggests. He doesn't strike me as purely a turf horse, and his pedigree actually leans much more towards dirt.

RACE 2

I'm not a big fan of Interstatelovesong (#5), who wasn't right on the rail last time but still benefited from the bias as the top two in that Ruthless both earned career-best speed figures that need some validation. I prefer a couple of the Florida shippers. The one to beat appears to be Paradise (#3), who beat a decent rival that came back to win when she broke her maiden last time at Gulfstream. She has the tactical speed to be forward, and I like the gameness that she displayed from off the pace in her debut going shorter. She'll likely go favored, but I do think she's the most likely winner. Nycon (#1) is the other horse for me, but she is a little slow. Her maiden win was visually impressive, but that was a bad field, and I thought she should have won the Cash Run last time.

RACE 3

This allowance is totally wide open, as cases can be made for just about everyone. I wanted to avoid all of the speed horses drawn down inside, and preferred those with outside posts. Howling Wind (#7) is arguably in the best form after gaining some consistency in recent starts. However, she did get a pretty good trip when spending time on the rail last time. Redwineandwhiskey (#6) was against that same track bias on Feb. 5 and deserves a pass for that lackluster effort. She ran better than it looks two back when she stumbled badly at the start and ran on well despite spending some time inside over a dead rail surface. She may be slightly better on a wet track, but she has a right to run better here. My top pick Rare Society (#5) exits that same race and hasn't run back since. She was always out of position racing towards the inside over that surface favoring outside paths. It was her first attempt against winners and I'm willing to give her a pass for that result. She can be more forwardly placed here and is a rebound candidate for a hot barn. Another horse I could use is Carol T (#8), who chased Howling Wind in a claiming race last time. She was uncharacteristically close to the pace before essentially getting pulled up two back, so I won't be too hard on her for that effort. She has some races in her that make her competitive at this level.

RACE 4

One Nine Hundred (#2) will probably wire this field at a short price, but I have some reservations about him running as well as he did last time. The worst effort of his career came in the one race he was unable to use Lasix last spring, and he's coming off Lasix again here. At a very short price, I'm willing to take him on with Full Moon Madness (#5). I think the outside draw could be key for a horse who doesn't always break that well. He's cutting back slightly after failing to finish at 6 1/2 furlongs last time, and two back he was never in a comfortable spot when pulling between horses. His form hasn't been nearly as sharp as when he won this last year, but perhaps he can rebound with a better trip.

RACE 5

I don't have a clever take on this race. One of the two favorites is likely to win, and I give slight preference to dropdownHours in a Day (#4). He's getting significant class relief as he makes his third start off a layoff for Linda Rice. Skylander (#9) is his main rival, but I thought he got a pretty good trip when spending a significant amount of time on the gold rail last time before angling out in the stretch. He would have to improve slightly off the claim for Wayne Potts.

RACE 6

Among those with experience, my primary take is that I don't want Sugartown Sweetie (#12), who took advantage of the track bias last time when riding the rail to a second-place finish. If I'm going to take a horse with prior form, I would much rather give another chance to Kaz Farm Girl (#10). She ran well in a very tough race for this level when third behind subsequent stakes winner Galinda two back. Then last time she had little chance chasing outside against the rail bias and probably didn't want to go a mile anyway. She's better than she looks at first glance, and can be effective here at a price. First time starters are likely to attract plenty of support. Daylight Dreamer (#4) has more of a turf profile being by Leinster, but she may be fast as a $150k yearling who has been working forwardly in the mornings. The firster who interests me most is Atira (#5), by excellent debut sire Yaupon from the female family of graded stakes winning sprinter Joking. Her workouts are fairly modest, but Tom Morley can win on debut.

RACE 7

All of the contenders in this New York-bred allowance race have their flaws. I'm not interested in taking a short price on Calling Card (#5), who has been a massive disappointment ever since winning by 17 lengths over this track as a 2-year-old. His form has steadily declined, and I have little confidence that turning back to a shorter distance suits him. I'm even less enamored with Maker's other horse Fireballin (#2), who has been unable to finish off his races ever since his debut and completely shut down after just 3 furlongs in his return last time. Sir Kartrite (#9) is a little more appealing since he actually did some running despite racing 3-wide against the rail bias last time. I don't love his overall form, but he has run a couple of races that would make him tough against this field. The bomb that I want to try to get into the mix is Sanzio (#4). He has to prove that he can be effective going this short, but he held his own at this level two back against a field of comparable quality. That 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure puts him in the mix, and that was notably his first start since a trainer switch back to Jimmy Ferraro. He had no chance given his wide against the bias trip last time, and should be a very generous price as he turns back.

RACE 8

I had trouble seeing past the two favorites in this Stymie. Full Screen (#2) has been in razor sharp form recently, but both of those wins came at 9 furlongs around two turns, and he benefited from perfect trips each time. He may win again at a short price, but I think he's facing a slightly better rival. Phileas Fogg (#3) obviously tailed off a bit at the end of 2025, but he was unwisely rated when they put blinkers on in the Cigar Mile last time, and that's not the way he wants to run. He's gotten a needed freshening since then, and returns with that equipment removed. He's likely to lead this field early, and should be tough to catch if he returns in top form. Yo Daddy (#4) is mildly interesting after running so well off the layoff last time, but he's been most effective at the allowance level.

RACE 9

They all have to beat Donegal Surges (#4), who had a valid excuse when wide against the rail bias last time out. He will be tough to deny if he runs back to his effort at this level from Dec. 27 when he crossed the wire first only to be disqualified. While he did have that excuse last time, I'm not sure that he actually ran much better than today's rival Dreamlike (#3), who was also wide against the bias and outclosed this horse for third. Dreamlike is just a little tougher to trust turning back in distance, and the lack of pace in this race should be more detrimental to his chances. Looking for horses who were against the bias last time, Top Gun Rocket (#1) is one that merits a second glance. He had little chance chasing outside in a rail-dominated race on Feb. 4. He finished well behind Donegal Surges when they met on Dec. 27, but he didn't have the smoothest trip that day and is capable of better. My top pick is another well beaten horse from that race. V Cruizer (#9) finished up the track, never getting involved after he was rated in the early stages. He was steadied multiple times at the back of the pack and his race was over from there. He did lead throughout when winning at this distance two back, and he should be able to work out a similar trip where with very little other speed signed on. He has to run faster this time, but I like that Linda Rice keeps placing him with confidence in these tought spots.

RACE 10

This Derby prep did not come up nearly as strong as the other two major points races taking place this weekend in Florida and Arkansas. Given the perception that this is a weaker field, a horse who ran as fast as Iron Honor (#6) on debut is going to be viewed as a very likely winner. Indeed, if he repeats the 95 Beyer or 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he was assigned in that debut win, he's probably going to beat this field. However, he did have some things working in his favor that day. The track was speed-favoring on Dec. 13, and he and the runner-up dominated the race towards the front end. Chad Brown is just 12 for 67 (18%, $0.85 ROI) with second time starters facing winners on dirt over the last 5 years. I don't view a victory by this horse as some kind of fait accompli, and the figures to be bet along those lines. A couple of his main rivals are turning back in distance. Crown the Buckeye (#3) should appreciate getting back into a one-turn race, since he was unable to finish over longer distances in his recent starts at Fair Grounds. However, he has plenty of early speed and could get caught up in a quick pace. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which may benefit a horse like Hammond (#2). He has gotten tough trips in two of his last three starts. He was steadied in the early stages en route to breaking his maiden last September, and more recently he overcame a poor start and wide trip to get up for third behind talented stablemate Solitude Dude. He has to prove he can get a mile here, but he appears to be heading in the right direction. My top pick is Right to Party (#5). He finished nine lengths behind the favorite on debut back in December, but this is the horse I would prefer out of that race. He was trying to close into a speed bias going a distance that appears to be too short for him. I would have liked to see him take more of a step forward when he broke his maiden last time in a slow race, but he still finished strongly going this distance despite hanging on his left lead all the way through the lane. He's still a work in progress and can take another step forward here given a favorable pace setup.