TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

Irresistible (#1) comes into the race with the strongest overall dirt form, having hit the board at this level three times. While her last race was her strongest yet on paper, the visual left me a little disappointed. She had every chance to win that race, and faded while drifting out through the lane. Perhaps she needed the race off a slight layoff, but I want others. Point of Reference (#4) appears to have more room for improvement in her second career start. She broke poorly last time after standing awkwardly in the gate. From there, she raced a bit erratically but finished well. Chad Brown is an excellent 34 for 103 (33%, $2.32 ROI) with 3YO maiden second time starters in dirt routes over 5 years. There are a couple of first time starters in the mix, one of which is trained by Brown. I prefer the Miguel Clement-trained Moonlit (#5), who also ships up from Florida. This Daredevil filly is out of a dam who was a Grade 3 winner going 1 1/8 miles on dirt, so she's bred to go this distance. Clement has also been on fire with his newcomers lately, going 10 for 25 (40%, $3.10 ROI) with firsters over the last 6 months. I watched a couple of her workouts at Payson. They're slow, steady drills but she travels well within herself and she won that Mar. 7 gate work despite her exercise rider losing the irons at the start and never getting them back.

RACE 2

I wasn't sure what to expect from Brigadier General (#5) when he returned from a near 2-year layoff last month, and the betting public was pretty lukewarm towards him as well, dismissing him at 15-1. While he only split the field in fifth, his performance was better than that result might suggest. The favorite Donegal Surges went forward to set an honest pace, basically running his competition into the ground. Brigadier General was one of the few sent to pursue him and he actually did well to hold second into the final furlong before fading as the race collapsed behind the winner. He should have gotten plenty of fitness out of that effort, and I like that there's no significant drop in class for second start back. He has form prior to the layoff that would crush this field. I prefer him to main rival Crushed It (#2), who is dropping a bit after facing some tough rivals at the $100k level last time. Getting back on a fast track should suit him, but he may not get his preferred forward trip here. Perhaps Three Technique (#4) can pick up some pieces as he stretches back out to his preferred one mile distance. He's been disappointing recently, but he was in the wrong spots several times in a row.

RACE 3

This becomes a completely different race with half of the field scratching. There's far less speed signed on now, and I don't fully trust likely favorite Carvellian Quest (#4) to hold his form well enough to win at this distance. He was pretty disappointing when losing last time, and was also strangely dead on the board for that race. Spirit Dragon (#7) is the main pace rival drawn right outside and I slightly prefer him. He was uncomfortably drawn inside of other speeds last time and could never get into his preferred running position after breaking a step slowly. He can rebound second off the claim for Antonio Arriaga. 

RACE 4

I have trouble trusting Sweet Laura (#4) to run back to her last race at Colonial. It was contested through heavy fog, and the speed figures assigned to it seem high for each of the top two finishers. It's not like she's some standout here based on her prior form, and her lack of early speed is a concern. I expect one of the Linda Rice entrants to this race. Pens Street (#1) has the better overall form, but she's pretty pace dependent. I know she sat closer to the lead last time going 9 furlongs, but that was a very slow pace. She figures to get outrun from the rail here, but I do expect her to be finishing well. I prefer Minnesota Munny (#7) if these two are similar prices. Like Pens Street, she was chasing outside against the rail bias on Feb. 14, but she finished better and did so while closing into the dawdling pace. I certainly don't mind her turning back to a one-turn mile, since she's 2-for-2 at this configuration.

RACE 5

Lotsa Trouble (#5) is the one to beat as he returns on short rest to contest this starter allowance. That victory one week ago came for a $25k claiming tag, and each of his last three victories have been earned in claiming races. He did get a pretty strong pace setup in that most recent start and unleased his typical strong finish to get up on the wire. Stretching back out to a mile should suit him, but he is being asked to run a big race for the third time in just 16 days. There does appear to be plenty of pace signed on, but J J's Ranger (#10) might be the quickest of them all early. He dominated an overmatched field of $10k claimers two back, but then ran surprisingly well off the claim against some tougher starter allowance foes last time. He did get a favorable frontrunning trip that day, but at least now he's drawn outside of other speed as he cuts back to a mile. I want to bet Shootersgottashoot (#4) in his second start since the trainer switch to Peter Synnefias. He got outrun going 6 1/2 furlongs last time, but he lost positioning early in that race and actually did well to close through the late stages in a race dominated towards the front end. He was running on best across the wire, and galloped out ahead of his rivals. That's one of the tougher races that any of these are exiting, and he proved he belongs at the level. His effort makes me think that stretching out to a mile should suit him even though he's relatively inexperienced at this distance.

RACE 6

Bam's Bliss Kiss (#2) is obviously a deserving favorite in her current form as she seeks her fifth victory in a row. She had improved significantly for prior connections, and it was a good sign that she continued that forward progression first off the claim for Jorge Abreu last time. She did take advantage of a rail bias in victory, but it's not as if the result was a surprise. She's clearly dangerous, but there is other speed in here to keep her honest early. I'll try to beat her this time with Despo's Dream (#6), who is getting needed class relief dropping out of some tougher allowance optional claimers. She spent much of her trip racing on a dead rail when last seen in January. She's been freshened up since then and is returning in an appropriate spot as Linda Rice wisely takes advantage of this available starter condition.

RACE 7

I respect the recent form of Lucky Dude (#3), who won his third start in a row when he came to Aqueduct to take down a starter allowance last time. He got a soft trip stalking outside that day and now he may have to maneuver through more traffic from off the pace. It is worth noting that he had been a horse that does best with forwardly placed trips and he's only been successful making wide, clear runs from behind in his last two starts. At a short price, that's enough to send me looking elsewhere. Shoot the Nickel (#10) has been in great form lately and will benefit from any pace that develops, though some speed has scratched out. Forgiving Spirit (#6) is another option to consider since he's getting class relief second off the layoff for Rudy Rodriguez. I don't love that he spent most of his trip on the gold rail last time, but he has prior form that makes him a real threat. Master of Arms (#9) may be a better option from Lucky Dude's last race since he should appreciate this slight turnback to 6 furlongs more than the winner. He was off slowly that day and had to be used to get into a stalking position early. He encountered traffic on the turn and made a gallant run through inside to settle for second. His overall form is better than it looks since he was inside on a dead rail two back. He can improve second off the claim for Horacio De Paz, and I like the outside draw for him here.

RACE 8

There are quite a few contenders to consider in this wide open 11-furlong starter allowance. Bob John Ray (#3) could play out as the pacesetter and that makes him dangerous. He came into very good form in his last several starts for Rob Atras, and I wonder if he can hold that level off the claim for new connections. I give strong consideration to Power Seeker (#6), who has twice been wide against rail biases in his last two starts. I'm not sure that he really wants to go 11 furlongs, but I know he's better than his last couple of results, and he has a right to rebound third off the layoff for Rudy Rodriguez. After the scratch of my original top pick, I will upgrade Parx invader Margie's Fun Son (#10). He obviously fits well on form, and comes in off two legitimately fast races at his home track. A repeat of either the 114 or 109 TimeformUS Speed Figures that he's earned in his last two starts will surely put him in the winner's circle against this group. He also strikes me as a horse who will relish the added distance he gets here.

RACE 9

Golden Eib Micrphrn (#5) has really blossomed over longer distances in her recent starts, but I tend to think that her improvement is more a product of spending time in the Jamie Ness barn. She's turning back to 7 furlongs here, but I really don't mind that for her since she's shown the ability to come from off the pace in the past. Her consistency makes her a pretty reliable option even as she comes to a new circuit. Mursal (#6) is another who shouldn't mind cutting back to 7 furlongs. I wish her recent form was a bit stronger, but she may not have loved getting involved in the pace in the mud last time. The only price idea that I could muster in this finale is Lika Rolling Stone (#2). She did not get a particularly good ride last time when ridden directly into traffic just as she was making her move at the quarter pole. She could never recover after that. Her prior races all fit pretty here, and I think the 7-furlong distance is perfect for her. She's turned into a closing type lately, and she should get a decent pace setup in this large field.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

It's hard to split the likely favorites in this opener. Both Floge (#3) and Luna Moth (#4) are dropping in class after finishing off the board in a $20k claimer. Floge has run this cheaply before, but Luna Moth will be dropping down to the $10k level for the first time. While I generally prefer the early speed of Floge, Luna Moth did have some minor trouble when caught behind that fading foe at the quarter pole of their last race. I'll give the slight nod to Luna Moth if they are indeed similar prices.

RACE 2

Gulfy (#1) has to be considered the one to beat in this starter optional claiming after dominating a maiden field last time. It did take him six attempts to finally garner that maiden diploma, but he had run deceptively well against tougher competition in several maiden special weight starts prior to that. He put forth an underrated effort two back when chasing outside against the gold rail on Feb. 5. However, he had no such barriers in his path last time, as he got right to the front end and drew off in the mud. The form of that race was flattered when runner-up First Blessing returned to win last week. He does switch into the barn of Gustavo Rodriguez, but that trainer is 12 for 50 (24%, $2.67 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes over the last 5 years. The only horse I can support as an alternative is Anyway (#2), who gets some minor class relief after facing stakes company last time. He was no match for impressive winner Sculco's Folly, but was hardly disgraced in his grinding fourth-place result. I felt that the main track was mildly biased towards inside runners on Mar. 7, and Anyway found himself chasing wide throughout, so I would upgrade his performance slightly. While he hasn't won in either start over a mile, he has demonstrated that he handles the distance. He should get a fair pace setup this time, something he lacked in the last race, as there are multiple speeds signed on.

RACE 3

Timaeus (#7) is dropping all the way down to the $10k level after facing much tougher rivals over the last year in the Rudy Rodriguez barn. That makes him a deserving favorite, but I'm still a little reluctant to take a short price on a horse that has been somewhat unreliable over the last several months. He probably didn't appreciate a wet track last time, since he's never run particularly well over that kind of surface. I certainly prefer him to main rival Skylander (#3), who is unproven going this short. He's had prior experience racing this cheaply, and now makes his first start off the claim for Wayne Potts. He did win at this level last time, but did so with the benefit of a ground-saving trip. I want to take a shot against this pair with Prince of Truth (#4). He ran very well at this level on Feb. 14. Though he was narrowly beaten by one of today's rivals, he undoubtedly ran the best race after chasing wide against the rail bias. Then last time he was always out of position behind a slow pace after getting shuffled back early. This barn has had a few horses outrun their odds at the meet, and I think this gelding is due for a rebound performance.

RACE 4

If What's Up Bro (#7) breaks decently and the others concede the lead to him, he's probably going to win again. That was the case last time, but I wonder if tactics will be different today. What's Up Bro isn't always the quickest horse out of the starting gate, but his natural speed in the opening quarter can intimidate his rivals. Factually Correct (#1) broke on top of the field last time, but his rider had little intention to secure the lead and allowed What's Up Bro to cross in front. I wonder if that's one reason for this rider change to Ruben Silvera, who is one of the most aggressive riders on the circuit. Factually Correct is an excellent gate horse and he might be able to get the jump on his main rival out of the blocks. It seems like Factually Correct has gone off form for Fernando Abreu, but he has had excuses. There were a couple of vet-voided claims last year, and he was wide against the bias on Feb. 13. He's better than he looks and it's not like there's any other speed to push him if What's Up Bro doesn't break as sharply. The biggest threat might come from off the pace, as Elysian Meadows (#5) is an intriguing prospect returning from a layoff. He has prior sprint form that makes him highly competitive against this field and Bill Mott's barn can have horses ready off this kind of break. If the two aforementioned speeds duel on the front end, it could set it up for him, but I would prefer using him underneath my top pick.

RACE 5

Chips and Fish (#4) is obviously the horse to beat after earning the highest speed figure in the field on debut. The older horse he chased home would be a massive favorite in this spot, so he might actually be getting some class relief despite technically moving up in claiming price. The only alternative I would want to upgrade is Bellamy (#7), who now makes his third start in the barn of Linda Rice. He's improved gradually since getting claimed in December, and exits a much tougher race than this one. He chased home Tiger Rocket, who returned to finish a close fourth in the Jimmy Winkfield with an improved speed figure. The margin of defeat was exaggerated when Kendrick Carmouche eased up on him late last time, and I think he can do better against this softer bunch.

RACE 6

There are several intriguing second time starters in this NY-bred maiden special weight, but it could be a first time starter who takes the most money. Venetta (#3) looks pretty live for her debut. She's by 19% debut sire Yaupon and is a half-sister to stakes winner Mrs. Orb. Her works have been fast, and Danny Gargan has pretty good statistics with firsters. He's also been on a roll at NYRA over the last 6 months, going 10 for 23 (43%, $4.00 ROI) at Aqueduct since the end of September. She's dangerous, but I do think one of the second time starters will offer better value. Majorsdreamcometru (#8) is the one with experience that I want. She faced a pretty solid field on debut, from which horses have returned to run well. While she didn't get a terrible trip, she had a few things working against her. She broke a step slowly and then rushed up to chase the pace down the backstretch. He moved 2 to 3-wide on the turn, but that was one of many days featuring a rail bias. Given those disadvantages, she ran better than the margin of defeat would suggest. She draws better outside this time, and appears to have worked well since the unveiling. Punchoutandgohome (#7) is another with a right to improve in her second start, but I wonder if she'll want to go even farther than this given the strong finish she put in. Beau's Bella (#2) broke a step slowly and chased some tough rivlals over a wet track. She took money that day and may improve here. Barbour County (#4) had a trip first time out, but I really didn't like the way she shut down in the last quarter, and I get the sense she's a horse who wants turf based on her action and pedigree.

RACE 7

This allowance optional claimers features horses who have finished first, second, and third in the Wood Memorial. Resilience (#1) and Society Man (#5) completed the exacta in the 2024 Wood, and Dreamlike (#7) was a narrowly beaten third in the 2023 Wood. All of these horses must have seen better days if they're still eligible for an N2X allowance, but Dreamlike has at least enjoyed a renaissance since coming into the barn of Linda Rice. He earned a fast number winning his N1X condition at this distance three back, and since then has twice run well at this level, including a closing second behind the talented Donegal Surges. His consistency makes him the horse to beat, but his running style makes him pace dependent. Rudy Rodriguez has a couple of contenders in here, of which Le Gris (#4) might be most dangerous due to his early speed in a race lacking much pace. I want to go in a different direction with Wynstock (#6). He was overbet when made the favorite in a $100k claimer last time, since he's not a horse that does his best running around one turn. You could also tell that he just wasn't handling the sloppy track last time from early in the race. He was much more effective two back when dominating a NY-bred field going this distance. That was his first start off the claim for Brad Cox and I think he can get back to that level here, especially if he gets aggressively ridden early by Manny Franco.

RACE 8

Forgone (#7) is probably the right favorite on the drop in class, but this horse is a little tough to trust. He's a one-time $600k yearling who is now dropping all the way down to this $12,500 claiming level. He obviously ran poorly last time, but perhaps he just hated the sloppy track. He's a big, heavy horse so that would track, but I'm still not sure I want to bet him to rebound at a short price. I'm interested in a couple of horses who chased home the superior Tactical Trackstar at this level last time. The winner was a significant dropdown better than most rivals at this level. Magni (#6) closed decently for second and looks like a logical alternative to the favorite. Perhaps he improved on a wet track, but I can make some excuses for his efforts two and three back. Fiscal Drag (#10) didn't finish far behind Magni last time and figures to be a better price here. He's another one who has had some excuses, placed over his head off the claim and then chasing outside against a track bias on Feb. 13. He woke up last time, and that fits with a pattern of Jimmy Ferraro horses running well lately. He fits at this level and can outrun his odds.