TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

Bootsy's a Rascal (#5) may not look like a standout on paper, but he is dropping in class and comes out of a race in which he had a major excuse. He was traveling well on the turn of that Apr. 19 affair but clipped heels just as he was commencing his move. His race was essentially over after that. If you draw a line through that race, his only other experience against maiden claiming company resulted in a second-place finish on debut. He's now back at the right level, going out for the red-hot Dominick Schettino barn and picking up Manny Franco. I'm not really against him, but I do think there are others to consider. Hafu (#2) had a bit of a trip in his debut at Belterra Park before trying tougher at Keeneland last time out. He's been off since getting claimed by Linda Rice last fall but can certainly run faster in his 3-year-old debut. I thought the horse that would offer the best value is Dixie Hex (#4), who turns back in distance after trying a route last time for Ray Handal. He didn't strike me as a horse that appreciated going longer, and did himself no favors by getting involved in an early duel. He faced much tougher on debut, and deserves a chance sprinting at this level.

RACE 2

Swaging (#3) seems like the most reliable option in this maiden claimer, since he has solid recent form sprinting on dirt. He actually faced a pretty good field at this level in Kentucky last time out, and now makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice. I much prefer him to the two runners to his inside who both could take money for powerful stables. Lifes Reward (#2) is a full-brother to Life Is Good that just hasn't panned out. Even his debut race looks worse in retrospect considering the negative runbacks. Capt Fluff N Stuff (#1) brings together Chad Brown and Flavien Prat, who will automatically attract support. Yet this horse's pedigree is all turf, and the debut effort was highly disappointing. I think there are more interesting alternatives. A total wild card to consider is Bandstand (#8), who obviously did no running on debut. Yet David Jacobson isn't known for success with first time starters, and this horse was basically eased after a poor start. The fact that he's shipping here and not dropping to the bottom level is intriguing. The horse I really want to bet is Feroce (#4), who also makes his first start for a tag. He has faced much better competition in all three prior starts, and had a legitimate excuse when inside over a dead rail two back. He ran pretty well last time, but now should improve adding blinkers and Lasix for his second start off a layoff. He has the speed to be prominent throughout.

RACE 3

My primary opinion in this conditioned claimer is that I don't trust likely favorite Salming (#1). This horse has run against better company and owns a set of superior speed figures, but his replays don't inspire confidence. He has trouble getting out of the gate, he usually lacks much response when called upon, and his form has been steadily declining. I also don't think he really wants to go a mile. I think a couple of horses who already competed at this level on May 2 have similar chances of winning and both figure to be better prices. Thorsness (#3) was second in that race 3 weeks ago, and Whitby (#5) faded to fifth. The former is proven at this distance and has been in solid recent form. Yet Whitby ran better than his result indicates that day, since the pace was honest and he was dueling for the lead throughout before tiring. There isn't as much pace signed on here, and both horses should be forwardly placed. My top pick is Raging Sea Captain (#4). He's a 3-year-old stepping up to face a group of older horses, but I don't mind the age gap now that we're approaching the summer months. This colt broke his maiden going this distance last December after making a big middle move to take over on the far turn. He subsequently was overmatched and also wide against a rail bias in his 3-year-old debut in February. He dropped back down to an appropriate level last time, but was his own worst enemy. He got away very awkwardly from the starting gate and then was trying to lug in through the stretch when making his move. Ruben Silvera is familiar with his antics, but I'm hoping he can compensate for them here. If he cleans up those mistakes from last time, he can beat this field at a square price.

RACE 4

If this race stays on grass, there's plenty of guesswork to be done with so many making their debuts or trying turf for the first time. The best of the proven options might be Raynam Hall (#9). She came to hand going longer than this last fall, but she ran decently sprinting in the second and third starts of her career. She may just be getting back to the right surface and distance. The first time starters all have positives and negatives, but the one who has the best pedigree for grass is Sonorite (#3), a David Donk trainee who intriguingly attracts Flavien Prat. I would use her, but I'm more interested in a filly who has a little grass experience. Fairy Godmother (#2) made her debut on turf last fall and ran better than it might appear. Breaking from post 11, she was stuck 3 to 4-wide on the turn and never gave up, staying on for fifth. She subsequently switched to dirt where she didn't run terribly. I actually like that she showed some signs of finish when getting over a sloppy track last time. Yet she's by turf influence Cairo Prince and figures to appreciate getting back to this surface. I thought the price would be fair.

RACE 5

Baby Sassicaia (#8) might take money as she seeks her third victory in a row, but I thought she was stepping up to face a slightly tougher group. This barn is dangerous, especially with horses that Schauer gets into top form, but I thought she could be an underlay. Ah Ca Ira (#10) gets class relief after trying some tougher foes in her last couple of dirt starts. She's a horse who is missing an eye and runs with part of her face covered, so it can be tough for her to work out trips. Drawing outside may help. Jackie the Joker (#3) is always dangerous on rainy days, since she runs her best races over wet tracks. She might get that surface here and she also figures to play out as the controlling speed. I'm hoping that My First Love (#6) can stay a little more engaged in the early stages than she's been in recent starts. I haven't loved some of the trips she's gotten recently, and now she's receiving a rider upgrade to Dylan Davis. She owns prior form that can win at this level.

RACE 6

On turf, Heeere's Johnny (#8) figures to take plenty of money given his company lines. He ran well in stakes races on debut and wasn't even disgraced in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. The main questions around him are twofold. Has he progressed since last year, and does he really want to go 1 3/8 miles? I'm less concerned about the distance, since he's bred to get added ground. Yet his return effort at Keeneland gives mixed signals as to his development. The winner is quite good and may be bound for stakes himself, but I wanted to see Heeere's Johnny finish a big stronger behind him. Among the 3-year-olds, Chester Boy (#3) intrigues me more at a much bigger price. He hasn't shown nearly the level of talent that the morning line favorite has, but he did close mildly into a slow pace on debut and seems cut out to go longer. Yet the advantage here may go to the 4-year-olds. Orgonite (#1) seems like a major player based on his best turf efforts from last season. He failed to hit the board off the layoff last time, but there was no pace to set up his late run, and he actually did well to nearly get up for third. I like him getting some added ground. I also think the stretch-out will really benefit Gold Sovereign (#2). He will surely take money with Flavien Prat riding for Chad Brown, but he does strike me as a horse that is cut out for these conditions. He's by excellent marathon sire English Channel and his dam is a full-sister to multiple G1-winning marathon specialist Big Blue Kitten. He showed in his last race that he has the tactical speed to be more forwardly placed before Prat took him back to sit 3-wide without cover. I would hope that this time they use his speed from the gate and attempt to lead throughout. There isn't much speed signed on, and this horse's strength is his stamina.

RACE 7

This Paradise Creek looks totally wide open on paper, but I think there is a legitimate favorite. Intricate Spirit (#3)displayed form that would beat this field as a 2-year-old. His form since that Grade 3 Futurity win over this course suggests that he hasn't moved forward since then. Yet there have been excuses. Five furlongs was simply too short in the Breeders' Cup, and then he got rained off the turf in the Texas Glitter. He seemingly landed in a better spot in the Palisades, but the trip just didn't work out at all. He looked uncomfortable with his position right from the start, and backed up through traffic. Now blinkers go on, which should give him some more focus. He's also drawn well outside of two main pace rivals. Others in this field didn't do much for me. I don't want the deep closers from the Palisades, a race that completely fell apart late. Twilight Delight (#8) showed some ability during his 2-year-old season, but he figures to take money off the layoff given his company lines. A longshot I want to use is Capanaparo (#4), who only made one start on turf in his career debut. His subsequent dirt efforts are nothing special, but he chased home a pretty good horse in that only grass start and now finally gets back on his preferred surface.

RACE 8

I have some doubts about likely favorite Classicist (#7), who was highly disappointing as the odds-on favorite in the Excelsior last time. I had given him an excuse off the short layoff in that runner-up allowance effort two back, but he failed to step forward against the same rival next time. I'm starting to wonder if all of the issues that have plagued him over the last two seasons are finally catching up to him. I prefer Le Gris (#2) of the likely short prices. This horse did not get a comfortable trip last time when he was outrun to the early lead and then buried on the rail for his entire trip. No one was beating Phileas Fogg that day, but this guy never really had a chance to issue a challenge. He's better when he gets an aggressive ride and Flavien Prat should deliver that. My top pick is Kinetic (#6), who has prior form for Brad Cox that would beat this field. His best days are probably behind him, but he did have a valid trip excuse two back, racing wide against a rail bias. I like him stretching back out as he makes his first start off the claim for Mike Miceli, who has quietly done pretty well with some recent claims. The other horse I want to use is Waitlist (#1), who you probably wanted to have last time at 15-1. Yet I do think a repeat of that effort would make him pretty tough even as he steps up to this level. His form is dirtied up by a bunch of one-turn races, but he's really at his best in two turn races where he can get into a rhythm. He has had gate issues in the past, but he finally broke better last time.

RACE 9

The deeper we get into this card, the less likely it seems that we'll still be on the turf. If this race does stay on grass, Kid Cairo (#6) seems like he's finally landed in a good spot. He faced much tougher company in his recent allowance races and he comes ff a pretty tough trip in his most recent start at Gulfstream. Carc Brothers (#11) figures to take money off his impressive debut at Fair Grounds, but he was beating a weak field and draw a tough post position for his first try against winners. I instead want to take a shot with Middle Market (#5), who gets some class relief out of his last turf race. He really didn't run that badly against some tougher competition. Even his prior turf form from last season is better than it looks and he figures to be a square price due to the connections.

RACE 10

If this race stays on grass, Cuando (#3) is obviously dangerous as the controlling speed. There isn't much pace in here, and he looks loose on the front end. The only drawback is that he's 1 for 21 in his career and tends to give up the victory late. Watching back that Apr. 24 race that he exits, the horse that I want to bet is Forgiving Spirit (#5). He seems like a candidate to run better after he missed the start in that return to turf last time. He closed well through traffic thereafter but the lost position early cost him a victory. He can be much more forwardly placed with a clean start, and that should serve him well here, especially under an aggressive rider like Ruben Silvera. I also want to use Pivotal Moment (#11), if he draws into the field from the AE list. I am skeptical that he'll run here, since he is cross-entered at Monmouth in a spot where he looks like a heavy favorite. If he does stay in New York, I have some interest. He got a very wide trip last time at Keeneland, and has shown some ability despite all the stops and starts in his career.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

DRF's Dave Grening reported earlier this week that likely favorite Twice the Life will be scratched from this race due to an infection, so four at most will compete here. There's still another six-figure daughter of Life Is Good in the mix, as Beach Life (#2) seems likely to inherit the favorite's role. I know very little about her or the other first time starters aside from what's on paper, but Beach Life goes out for Todd Pletcher, who has had the most success with these types of runners. It is more of a grass pedigree on the dam's side, being a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 turf winner Casa Creed.

RACE 2

I couldn't get too creative here, and won't be trying to beat heavy favorite Apalta (#3). This gelding drops back down to a level that clearly works for him. He tried tougher foes in two of his last three starts for Linda Rice, but he's been an easy winner of both starts where he's dropped in for claiming tags similar to this one. He's also proven that he can handle this 9-furlong distance. Petrolo (#4) is another who is pretty convincing at the trip, but the downside with him is that he hasn't raced in over a year. Bourbon Chase (#6) has the best prior form in the field, but he hasn't run very well in three starts since returning from a layoff this year. It's intriguing that he's first off the claim for the dangerous Steven Schauer, but that wasn't enough to make me want to bet him.

RACE 3

Seat At the Table (#5) comes into this race in good form and seems realistically spotted after easily defeating a weaker field at Gulfstream last time out. She hasn't been particularly active since getting claimed about a year go, so it's good to see her now putting races back to back without a layoff. This race didn't come up particularly tough for the level, and she has the tactical speed to ensure she gets a good trip. I much prefer her to main rival Notable Exchange (#3), who does sport some of the best speed figures in the field. Yet I think those were a product of her facing tougher competition. She didn't do much running in either of those races and her prior form doesn't compel me. I was more intrigued by the pair going out for Derek Ryan. I always give this barn's runners a second look at NYRA since they seem to run so well here. I believe Mrs. Katz (#6) is better than the low speed figure assigned to her last race, but shew as still squarely defeated by her stablemate Stillthinkingofyou (#1) when they met on Mar. 20. That filly is coming off a minor layoff, but she appears to fit well at this level and drew well inside. She seems like an improving 4-year-old in a race where many of these have already shown their cards.

RACE 4

They all have to catch Gypsy Dreaming (#3) on the front end, and perhaps his expected pace advantage will be enough to put him in the winner's circle. I'm not so concerned about him stretching back out to 7 furlongs since he nearly got this distance against a decent field two back. I just wonder how long he can hold his current form since getting claimed since I thought he showed slight regression last time out, and I wonder if more is coming. I wasn't thrilled with the locally based alternatives, led by Celestial Glaze (#6), who never seems to win. So I'm instead looking at a couple of runners from Parx. Windsor Gold (#5) had some minor traffic two back and then took a slight step forward last time. He has prior races that would beat this field but seems to lack consistency. I have a little more confidence in the other Parx shipper Paradise Valley (#1). He looks a cut below these at first glance, but I think the speed figure for that recent Penn National race is too low. I also didn't love the trip he got two back when he was steadied at the start and then had some trouble navigating traffic towards the inside. He's another with some back class, and I like him getting the services of a more aggressive jockey this time.

RACE 5

Alma's Law (#2) and My Girl Aubree (#4) are the two logical options but neither one really excites me. The former has run decently against tougher company, but her best races have come over a mile and I'm not sure she has the natural speed to win going 6 furlongs. My Girl Aubree is a little more consistent, but she's also lacked development since the second start of her career. I took a long look at Call Me Jal (#8), who showed speed and faded in her first couple of starts. She drops in class, but I question her overall ability. Quell (#6) showed mild late interest in her turf debut and actually has more of a dirt pedigree. I just need to see a bit more talent before I trust her. I'll instead go with Fifteen Over (#1), who makes just the second dirt start of her career. She faced tougher company in her first two races in Kentucky before dropping into a pretty strong race for the level at Keeneland last time. She actually ran on pretty well after a 3-wide chasing trip, and now meets softer competition. John Servis is always dangerous shipping to NYRA, and I would expect this one to get a more aggressive ride here.

RACE 6

I can't possibly take another short price on Scythian (#5) after she ran so poorly as the chalk last time. She was mildly shuffled back into the far turn but didn't really have any major excuse. She's had some excuses along the way, but remains winless since her Miss Grillo win as a 2-year-old. Can't Fool Me (#1) ran best of those exiting the May 1 race at this level, making up ground into a moderate pace. She lacks any early speed whatsoever but did produce some of her best form off the layoff last time. In a race where I didn't have strong feelings about anyone, I'll try a price with Snowy Evening (#4). She didn't run as well as others in that May 1 race, but she was making her second start off a layoff returning just 8 days after her prior start. She probably needed both of those efforts, and should be set for a move forward in her third start back. She's competitive at this level on her best day, and is reunited with regular jockey Javier Castellano.

RACE 7

I had a tough time setting a morning line for this race because all of the main contenders have significant flaws. Tuscan Sky (#8) might be the most naturally talented horse in this field on his best day, but his connections have struggled to coax that top form out of him in recent starts. He does appear to working well here and he picks up Flavien Prat, which should attract some support. I just find him difficult to trust at a distance this short. Raise the Bar (#5) will also take money as he makes his second start since a trainer switch to Chad Brown. His reputation is primarily built on form from Texas and Oklahoma, and he didn't show much improvement in his first start for Chad Brown. The good news for him is that the TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts that he could be alone in front this time, which obviously makes him dangerous. However, I do think there are a couple of rivals who could apply pressure early. One of those is T Kraft (#7), who won three races in a row over this track in early 2025. He subsequently got thrown into the deep end of the pool, trying Grade 1 company in the Woody Stephens last summer. He was hardly disgraced, beating over half the field home, though he didn't run quite as well in the Amsterdam subsequently. He received time off after that, and got in a useful prep on turf off the layoff last time. He's now returning to his favorite surface and is drawn well outside of other speed. My top pick is Over and Ollie (#6), who is clearly good enough to beat this field on his best day. The problem is that his best days have been few and far between, scattered among several dismal performances over the last year. His last victory did come over this course and distance last December, and he also in an impressive victory at this sprint distance last July at Saratoga. Notably, those were the only two races with Lasix that he actually completed during the last year, losing his rider at the start of another, and he gets to use that medication again this time. He's also had some excuses for the recent poor efforts, racing wide against a rail bias two back before trying a distance that is too far for him last time. I'm expecting him to rebound.

RACE 8

Urgency (#2) owns some of the best turf form in this field, but he's only raced at a mile on grass. Turning back is a question, but he has run even better than it looks in a couple of those prior grass starts. He had traffic issues when chasing home subsequent stakes winner Immortalised on Jan. 2, and then got a wide trip in February. He's a top contender, but you generally want to avoid taking short prices on turnbacks like this. I don't know what to make of Felonious (#9) switching back to turf. He didn't run that well in his only prior start on this surface. It seems like a move of desperation, and he's going to take money just because of Prat riding. In some ways, the horse to beat is Oligarch (#8), who arguably should have won when he was nearly 20-1 at this level last time. This horse had run deceptively well with a rough trip in his only prior turf start, and then finished well after getting held up in traffic on the turnback last time. He gets a rider upgrade to Javier Castellano, but will be a fraction of the price he was in the last start. My top pick is Traverse City (#5), who still has to prove he's good enough to win at this level. He struck me as a horse who was undone by the distance, not the turf, last time. He traveled well in his debut sprinting but came up empty when set down over the dirt, moving more like a turf horse. He's bred to be a turf sprinter, has the quick action of a turf sprinter, and now finally gets a chance to prove it in a turf sprint at a square price.