TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View anslysis of the Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

After the withdrawal of White Smoke Rising, I scratch into the likely favored first time starter. Sea Strike (#6) sold for $650k last year following a blazing 20 2/5 workout. There is plenty of turf and synthetic in this pedigree, but Chad will unsurprisingly debut this horse on dirt after a string over eye-catching workouts down in Florida. He appears to possess serious speed and might prove too fast for these.

RACE 2

Horses going out for the powerful stables of Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown figure to attract the bulk of support in this allowance. Vassimo (#4) is the more high profile of the two runners from these stables, having competing through a series of graded stakes events last year. He wasn't particularly successful in any of those starts, and is now returning from a substantial layoff. He seemed like a horse that wanted to run two turns and beyond last year, so I have mixed feelings about his returning in a one-turn race. First Call Bob (#7) also has upside as a lightly raced 4-year-old. He won on debut down at Gulfstream despite not taking much money, looking like a horse that definitely wants to go long. His pedigree and massive frame make me wonder if he's really going to achieve his best form around one turn, and he failed to progress when he tried winners last time. That race got a fast speed figure, but the runbacks haven't flattered the form. I want to look elsewhere. Alan Turing (#3) seems like a viable alternative based on his last race, which he won at this distance with a solid 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He's moving up in class, but he appears to have found himself getting back into a one-turn dirt race. My top pick is Run Quiet Run Fast (#5), who hasn't had the easiest trips in his two local starts for Tom Morley. He had absolutely no chance given the circumstances on Feb. 6, since he was wide against a strong rail bias and also compromised by a very slow pace. Then last time he was clearly primed to run a better race, but he got locked in traffic early and was never able to get clear until it was far too late. The winner of that race also had some traffic issues, but this horse was never clear until they approached the wire. He did gallop out ahead of the winner past the wire, suggesting there was more in the tank. He figures to be a very fair price once again.

RACE 3

I know there are some questions about Pretty Boy Miah (#7) stretching out to a mile, but I get the sense this horse is pretty talented and he isn't catching the toughest field here. He was much the best breaking his maiden against open company last time, showing high speed from the start and drawing clear with authority. If he comes anywhere near that 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure, he's going to beat this field. Main rival Bold Love (#5) is the only horse who really comes close to the favorite from a speed figure standpoint, but I didn't love that he was unable to seal the deal at this distance last time after striking the front in upper stretch.

RACE 4

We'll see if this or any of the other turf races stay on the grass. If it does get run on turf, I had trouble looking past the two favorites after the expected scratch of Blinging It Back. Teddy's Rocket (#3) was the buzz of Saratoga prior to his debut last summer and he delivered, winning like a horse who would progress from the race. He didn't really get that opportunity to step forward in the Summer, since he drew a tough post position and was wide throughout. He's been off since then and doesn't show much of a worktab for his return, but he sure looked good in his most recent Apr. 18 drill in company with the older Carson's Run. I gave him the nod over Instability (#1), who still has something to prove as he steps up in class. He looked good on debut at Tampa, but did work out a very good trip.

RACE 5

Graywing (#1) got the job done last time at the $16k level and now drops in for $10k, so he figures to be awfully formidable. The form of that last race was flattered when runner-up Timaeus returned to beat a much tougher group in his next start. He looks like the main speed, but he does have to see out 7 furlongs, which has been a problem in the past. There aren't too many appealing alternatives. I trust Brew Pub (#3) to get this distance, but he is hard to take on the win end given his 5 for 70 career record. Therefore, I'll side with Sin Nombre (#9), who also doesn't win very frequently but hasn't had quite as many chances. It seems like all of the live Jesus Romero runners are ridden by Jose Lezcano, so I like that he gets back aboard. He got a wide trip last time, and given the ground loss he really didn't run any worse than Graywing. At least he'll be a better price.

RACE 6

This allowance optional claimer is one of the better betting races of the day. Bramito (#1) has been in great form since the claim by Steven Schauer. While he's technically dropping in class after winning at a more advanced level last time, he might be catching a more competitive field this time. A repeat of his last race will obviously make him tough. He has a little more tactical speed than Dreamlike (#9), who I need to downgrade after the scratch of two pace players. Contrary Thinking (#5) could be a polarizing horse in here, since some will be enticed by the class relief he gets after facing the best horses in the world when used as a rabbit for Sierra Leone. I wasn't his biggest fan prior to taking on that role, but I do acknowledge he may have a good trip coming to him after scratches. Another horse who benefits from scratches is Ridgewood Runner (#7), but I just wonder if he classes up with this group. My top pick is the other Chad Brown runner Playing Tricks (#8). It's not easy to step up from N1X to N2X allowance company, especially against a field that came up this deep. However, I did think this horse put in a superior effort last time despite winning by just a head. He was racing in heavy traffic from the quarter pole to the eighth pole, but quickened nicely when he finally found room. He's progressed from start to start and I get the sense we haven't yet seen the best he has to offer.

RACE 7

If this race stays on turf, I want to bet Fluid Situation (#10) making his first start off the Mike Maker claim. He appears to be working well at Churchill for this return from a brief freshening, and he's a horse who has always elevated his game over this Aqueduct turf course. Burhan (#8) seems like one who should benefit from the turnback in distance after Chad tried to make him go two turns at Gulfstream first time out. I wanted to try and beat John the Beer Man (#3), who ran well going 5 1/2 furlongs at Fair Grounds off the layoff, but it's no guarantee that form will transfer back to Aqueduct.

RACE 8

After this race comes off the turf, I'm going to stick with my turf pick Mo Kreesa (#3), who has run just fine on the dirt in recent starts this winter and shouldn't mind some moisture in the main track. His main rival is obviously Caddiemaster (#10) off the AE list, but I thought they had similar chances to win and that Mo Kreesa would be a better price.

RACE 9

Hit the Post (#3) is likely to go favored here after stringing together some fast speed figures last summer into fall. However, now he's returning from a lengthy layoff, and he's doing so at Aqueduct. All of his best prior starts came at Saratoga where the Mel Giddings barn has the most success, or against weaker fields at Figer Lakes. I'm not sure that I trust him to bring his best form here, even as the likely main speed. I'll be interested to see if Trust Fund (#2) can attain more forward position in this spot after he didn't get the best ride last time. He broke very sharply but was taken in hand to rate off a slow pace. He was unable to finish with the two in the late stages but was hardly disgraced against a tougher field. Beary Funny (#1) didn't run well at this level last time, but he was catching a tough group in a race dominated by a longshot that put in a freakish performance. His prior form makes him a solid player here and I think he can rebound for the dangerous William Morey barn. My top pick is Elysian Meadows (#7), who exits that same race. I think some of the speed figures for that affair came back on the low side, but I don't care so much since this horse had a right to need the race off the layoff. He was outrun early but stayed on best of all late while making up ground into a relatively slow pace. I think 7 furlongs might be his best distance, and he has prior form from last year that could beat this field. Eric Cancel should be able to keep him a bit closer this time, especially if they're not going too quickly up front. One more horse I'll mention that I couldn't quite get to as a top pick but would use underneath is Rock the Weekend (#8). He's not in very good form right now, but he has moved way up on a sloppy sealed track in the past.

RACE 10

After scratches with this race coming off the turf, I'm not trying to beat Come On Get Happy (#13), who figures to be a heavy favorite as she draws in off the MTO list. 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

I'm not trying to beat Sheer Will (#3), who has disappointed at short prices but is supposed to get a decent pace setup here with a few speeds signed on. I thought it was the trip that got her beat more than the wet track last time, since she was locked inside without a clear path for much of the stretch drive. Meg's Foxy Grey (#7) looks like the main threat if she can rebound from a couple of poor efforts.

RACE 2

Once again, I'm defaulting to the favorite. Emirates Road (#6) is just better than these horses and should win if he holds his form off the claim for Gustavo Rodriguez. This barn has great statistics with new acquisitions in dirt routes, and this horse got things back on track when getting a confidence boost last time.

RACE 3

Linda Rice sends out a couple of contenders in this claimer, including potential favorite Will Not Be Swayed (#5). This filly is getting class relief that she probably needs after trying a much tougher field on turf last time. While she has run well on grass before, she's nearly as talented on dirt, and was mildly compromised by a slow pace in her last dirt race in March. She does get Flavien Prat aboard, but that's a double-edged sword as it means she's likely to take more money. Always Angels (#6) is a former Linda Rice runner now making her first start off the claim for Rob Atras. She lost as an odds-on favorite at this level last time, and hasn't quite run back to that impressive 8-length score first off the claim for Rice in January. She's obviously a contender, but there's more rain in the forecast and she hasn't always run her best races over wet tracks. I'll try to beat this pair with Rachel's Rock (#4). She faced a tougher field on Starter Championship day last month and faded after setting the pace going a mile. That effort was still a step in the right direction off her 2026 return. She had been risked for a lower claiming tag that day and did herself no favors by getting rank and pulling forward down the backstretch. She settled better up front last time, but the distance exposed her stamina limitations. She's at her best going shorter, and now she cuts back to an appropriate sprint distance.

RACE 4

Here's another favorite that I'm not trying to beat. Curlin's Magic (#6) simply outclasses this field. Linda Rice didn't make a great claim for $20k at Churchill last year, though she probably got a little too ambitious with her on this circuit. Now she's dropping this horse well below the level at which she's previously been competitive.

RACE 5

It seems likely that this race will come off the turf, so I'll update analysis after scratches.

RACE 6

It seems likely that this race will come off the turf, so I'll update analysis after scratches.

RACE 7

All of the favorites in this allowance optional claimer have their questions marks. The one who has the highest ceiling among them is probably Donegal Surges (#1), and I'm going to wager on him rebounding here after he completely failed to show up in the Haynesfield last time. That was a strange race where they went very fast early and the entire field was staggering home late. He was one of the first to wave the white flag, but perhaps he didn't appreciate being ridden so aggressively. Now Todd Pletcher takes the blinkers off and goes back to Kendrick Carmouche, who rode him with a more conservative approach in previous starts. I don't really mind him turning back in distance since he sprinted effectively early in his career. The distance seems like a bit more of a stretch for Bourbon Day (#7), who has focused on route races for his entire career. However, he does love wet tracks, and Linda Rice has him in great form right now. The wild card in the field is Raise the Bar (#3), who makes his first start off a trainer switch to Chad Brown. He obviously ran a pretty big speed figure last time at Sam Houston. I don't fully trust that form to translate here, and there is other speed to keep him honest up front.

RACE 8

It seems likely that this race will come off the turf, so I'll update analysis after scratches.

RACE 9

It seems likely that this race will come off the turf, so I'll update analysis after scratches.