TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

The likely favorites in this $50k beaten claimer all have their flaws. Smokin' Hot Kitty (#3) is the best horse in this race when she's in top form, but it's hard to know what to expect from her after she never ran a step off the layoff at Laurel last time. She had been similarly disappointing when last seen at Saratoga prior to the layoff, and now she drops in for a tag for the first time in nearly 2 years. Perhaps she rebounds here, but I wouldn't want to take a short price on that prospect. Royal Bobbie (#1) is more consistent, but her starting gate antics make her tough to trust. She breaks slowly in nearly every race, and it often puts her in a disadvantageous position right from the start. I don't mind her cutting back slightly to a mile, and the longer run to a turn may give her more time to regain position if she breaks poorly again. I just don't want to bet her at a short price. Grace and Grit (#2) is similarly frustrating, since she's a difficult filly to ride. She has talent, but can be hard to maneuver and is prone to trouble. However, I am intrigued by the switch to Amelia Green, whose barn has been on a strong run lately. I'll try to beat these favorites with Moonlight Gal (#4). I know she looks pretty light on speed figures, but remember that most of those numbers were earned during and just beyond her 2-year-old season. She returned from a yearlong layoff last time and ran a respectable race, achieving a new 82 TimeformUS Speed Figure top despite going a distance that seems too short for her. That was a solid spot for the level as horses have returned from the race to win and improve. She ran best going a mile in her second career start, and now gets to stretch back out to that distance on dirt for the first time since then.

RACE 2

I would like Magnanimous Max (#6) in this spot if the race weren't 9 furlongs. Linda Rice had initially entered this horse going shorter against winners a couple of weeks ago and scratched him. He lands here instead, but I have some questions about him getting more ground. He didn't finish up like a horse that wanted to go longer last time. Her other horse Apalta (#4) is already proven going this far. He beat a very weak field when he broke his maiden at this distance, but now he's getting class relief after being placed over his head last time. He's also second off a layoff. My top pick is Egyptian (#2), who hasn't won going this distance but certainly handled it in two prior attempts at this level. He would be tough to deny if he ran as well as he did behind next-out winner Ambition two back. His last race was a regression, but he probably didn't handle the muddy, sealed track.

RACE 3

Stamina becomes a question again in this race, as both likely favorites may not be at their best going 1 3/16 miles. Confabulation (#2) is probably the best horse in this race, as he displayed when dominating conditioned claimers three back. He's dropping back down after facing tougher in two starts since getting claimed by Ilkay Kantarmaci. However, he's hard to trust at this distance when he's never finished particularly well around two turns. I also have distance concerns with He's Got This (#3), who was wide last time but just picking up pieces in a race that was falling apart. I also don't like him stretching out further. I considered Centavo (#4), since he at least has wins around two turns. I'm just not sure that he's still sharp enough to win on this circuit now as an 8-year-old. Instead I'll go for the new face Texas Red Hot (#5). It seems like these Kantarmaci horses that ship up from Oaklawn are pretty live, and this one didn't run that badly in a couple of starts down there. Those races are generally more competitive than similar conditions here. This horse clearly wants the distance, and it's probably a good sign that Manny Franco is named aboard this one of the pair.

RACE 4

There's a case to be made for all runners in this highly competitive $50k claimer. It's hard to identify the horse to beat, but Twenty Four Mamba (#2) feels like a runner who should work out a pretty good trip. There isn't that much speed signed on, and he has the ability to attain forward position. Gustavo Rodriguez does tend to do much better off the claim with routers than sprinters, but this horse may have upside. He ran better than it looks when chasing wide against the bias last time. Three Technique (#3) has some past races that would make him awfully tough here, but he really tailed off for these connections at Oaklawn and doesn't have any early speed. If I'm going to look beyone Twenty Four Mamba, it will be with the Chad Summers runners. Bermuda Blitz (#1) is mildly appealing after racing wide against the track bias last time. He didn't get the most comfortable trip two back when stuck inside behind the leaders for the last half of the race. Yet his top effort on Nov. 29 was aided by a rail bias. I prefer Tuskegee Airmen (#6), who draws well outside this time. He got an inside post in his last start and was mildly shuffled back early behind a slow pace. He did spend some time in the advantageous rail path, but I still liked the way he closed into the slow pace. He's only tried this 7-furlong distance once in his career, but he won that day and it should be perfect for him here.

RACE 5

It's mostly guesswork for me in this maiden claimer. Those with experience don't do much for me. She's Bankable (#6) was wide against the rail bias last time, but that wasn't much of a field behind the winner. Chardonnay Derby (#4) didn't run a step on debut at Saratoga, but she is bred to be a dirt horse. She has seemingly worked better for her return. I would rather go with first time starters, and the two drawn closest to the rail are most appealing. Neeka (#2) sold for $82k after working a furlong in 10 3/5 at Timonium last year. She shows a solid worktab for the debut. David Duggan isn't known for winning with firsters, but this one appears to be spotted appropriately. I slightly prefer K Gun (#1), who debuts for another trainer, Horacio De Paz, who tends to give horses a start. Yet I like that she's by 17% debut sire Violence with some class on the dam's side. Ricardo Santana, Jr. gets live mounts for this barn, and she may get somewhat overlooked due to drawing the rail.

RACE 6

There appears to be no shortage of pace for such a small field in this first-level allowance. Vibrant Express (#3) andCountthebrave (#5) both appear to be need-the-lead types. The former is stepping up in class seeking his fifth win in a row, but he has had track profiles and paces in his favor. I would be mildly surprised if he were able to win at this level. Pair of Socks (#6) projects to sit a great trip perched just outside the speed. He's another moving up in class, but he beat the track bias winning last time. He also ran into an unusually strong rival for the starter allowance level two back when beaten by stablemate Porosity. I view him as the horse to beat, but I want to give My Mitole (#4) a chance to rebound as he returns on short rest. I'm not concerned about the quick turnaround since he barely participated when last seen a week ago. He was immediately taken off the pace and ridden very conservatively on the turn before making a belated bid through the fog. He had been in great form prior to that, and he figures to get the right trip sitting off a contested early pace.

RACE 7

I don't have a clever take on this Jimmy Winkfield. Igniter (#4) has shown stakes quality right from the start, beating a strong field when he broke his maiden last September. Trying 1 1/8 miles in the Remsen was too much for him, but he didn't even run that badly, hanging in until the final furlong. He got back on track last time with a powerful victory, beating a track bias while pulling clear. He has to turn back to 6 furlongs here, but it's not as if there's that much speed in this race to run away from him early. I'm not trying to beat him. I do think Time to Roll (#3) will perform better than he did last time when he was wide against a rail bias. I just don't think even his victory against New York-breds two back quite measures up against the two wins by the favorite.

RACE 8

I don't have many major knocks against Malu (#1), who owns superior form and is the clear class of the field. The main problem is that she's struggled to stay on the racetrack recently. It was understandable that she got a break last April after keeping up a heavy workload through the winter. However, I don't like that she went back to the sidelines after that one return start in December. She didn't even run that badly against open company, but now she's dropping back down in class to be risked for a $45k tag. That's generally not a great sign for Linda Rice horses. The problem is that the alternatives aren't terribly appealing. Fast and Frisky (#2) rode a bias to victory last time. Lika Rolling Stone (#3) can win only if others step backwards slightly. The best I can come up with is Khali Magic (#6), who has to turn things around after disappointing in two starts following a brief layoff. However, she was just run off her feet against a better field two back, and last time got caught chasing wide against the track bias. She's a candidate to rebound here, and I do think she has a chance to get ahead of these early switching to the more aggressive Ruben Silvera.

RACE 9

Among those with experience, I do think Pride of the Union (#2) merits some respect. He was chasing outside against the rail bias last time, and his prior two efforts are pretty solid. I view him as the horse to beat, but there are a couple of intriguing first time starters to consider. Irish Goodbye (#9) is out of a debut winner who raced for Christophe Clement, who bred this filly. She now goes out for Brad Cox, who doesn't have the strongest stats with firsters on this circuit. Yet she has been working well for this unveiling. I slightly prefer the South Florida shipper Love Coin (#5), a gelding by Hard Spun. This is another with some dam's side pedigree, being a half-brother to talented allowance performer Listentoyourheart. I watched videos of a few workouts from a while back and the horse appears to have some ability. Miguel Clement has had a quiet winter up north, but he did ship up Galinda from Payson to win her debut. Notably, Manny Franco is off Pride of the Union to ride this firster.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

I have little interest in the day's opener. Linda Rice will probably win even though neither of her entrants are terribly appealing wagering prospects. I give slight preference to Restless Renegade (#2), who has superior early speed. Well-bred Gaborone (#4) is mildly interesting trying the surface for the first time, but his pedigree is pretty turf-oriented.

RACE 2

The horse to beat is Holly Ln (#3), who ran a gallant race on debut. She was chasing 2 to 3-wide against the rail bias and was undoubtedly best as she just barely failed to hold off a winner who got to save more ground. The only drawback is that she's been claimed away from Amelia Green, whose barn had been on a strong run through the start of the year. I definitely prefer her to fellow short price Liam's Diva (#4), who was mostly with the bias when finishing second at this level last time. Backstreets (#6) takes another crack at this level after running well behind a first time starter last time. Shorter is definitely better for her, so I like that she's sticking to 6 furlongs. I just have some interest in a price who I think can do better here. Beau Hill (#2) has run a bit better than it looks in both prior starts. She got wide trips each time, and that was particularly detrimental last time when she was racing 4 to 5-wide against the rail bias. She finally drew inside with a chance to save some ground. Her pedigree does lean turf so I'll be intrigued to eventually see her get a chance on that surface, but I still think she can do better here on a fair dirt track.

RACE 3

Between the two likely favorites, I figured Maldini (#5) might get overbet given the rider switch to Flavien Prat. He has run consistently well over his last several starts, and he was wide last time. I just think there's more upside with his main rival Sequential (#2). This horse didn't run as badly as I initially thought when losing as the favorite last time. That was a much tougher spot than this, and he was contesting an honest pace in a race won by a closer who has since come back to win against stronger competition. He'll clearly win if he gets back to his effort two bac, and he has a significant tactical advantage in a race that lacks speed. That's the main reason why I couldn't pull the trigger on Come Full Circle (#3), who did run well against the bias last time. Yet that was a softer spot, and he's got to prove he can hold that form first off the claim for new connections.

RACE 4

Romantic Dancer (#1) is obviously the horse to beat, but it's hard for me to take a short price on a horse who has finished second at this level 4 times in a row. She did run well two back when chasing wide against the rail bias, but she was with the bias last time, riding the rail behind the eventual winner before tipping out in the lane. She's logical, but unlikely to offer value with Prat aboard. Between the favorites, I prefer Artemis Sound (#5), who may have needed the freshening after tailing off last summer at Saratoga. She ran well when she returned from a layoff over this course last winter and can get back on track as she ships up from Florida. My top pick is Always Practical (#3), who might have further upside second off the layoff for Linda Rice. She won off the bench last time, but Rice is 7 for 23 (30%, $2.30 ROI) second off a 90 to 180 day layoff with last-out winners over 5 years. I liked the way she waited in traffic before producing a strong kick last time, and she just feels like a newly turned 4-year-old who may have really turned the corner after being given some time to mature.

RACE 5

Jackson's Dixie (#6) is a deserving favorite on the class drop. She won at this level back in November, and held her own against $25k claimers two back. She was simply in over her head last time, and now drops back down to an appropriate level. She also possesses plenty of tactical speed in a race that doesn't appear to feature an abundance of pace. I prefer a different class dropper. Unicorn Cake (#5) wasn't competitive against NY-bred allowance foes last time, but she did make a mild middle move on the outside before fading. She has caught wet tracks three times in a row, and may appreciate getting back on drier footing on Friday. She has been protected in a long series of races and is finally dropping in for a tag at a realistic level. Notably, Jeremian Englehart is 5 for 9 (56%, $5.30 ROI) going from allowance to claiming on dirt at NYRA over the last 4 years.

RACE 6

I'm not trying to beat Mr Skylight (#6), who faced a much tougher group last time and is dropping second off the claim for Joe Sharp. He actually held his own against that group, only finishing 3 1/2 lengths behind Toxic Gray, who won here last week with a 95 Beyer. He doesn't have that much early speed and there isn't much in the race, but drawing outside should mitigate any potential disadvantage. I also don't fully trust main rival Disarmed (#5) to show his prior speed after he has struggled to get out of the gate twice in a row. This horse has been throwing his head about in the gate in each of his last two starts, and it's caused him to miss the break by a length or two each time. He's obviously dangerous if he breaks cleanly here, but I don't trust him enough given the expected price.

RACE 7

Irish Jackson (#6) would look tough for this field to handle if you had confidence that she would get back to the form we saw from her just prior to the layoff. However, you have to be mildly concerned about her current condition as she makes her first start in nearly 8 months. Rob Falcone is just 4 for 40 (10%, $1.73 ROI) with horses returning from 180 to 360 day layoffs over the last 5 years. I prefer some runners with more recency. Cloudy Chance (#2) ran well at this level last time when finishing second to the consistent Graceful Rose. She hasn’t broken that sharply in her last few starts, and was again off a step slowly last time before quickly rushing up into a stalking position. That compensation for her poor starts has perhaps taken away from her finishing ability the last two times, so she needs to break better here. I'm more interested in another runner from that Feb. 20 race at this level. Fifi La Fume (#7) closed belatedly for fourth, only finishing 2 3/4 lengths behind Cloudy Chance. She got a very wide trip, ridden like a horse who probably needed the race off a layoff. Perhaps that race and this one are just preps for a return to turf, where she has run her fastest speed figures. However, she had started to show signs of progression in her final few dirt starts last winter. She has worked faster since that return, and I think she deserves another chance on this surface now that she's second off a layoff.

RACE 8

Graywing (#1) is protected for the waiver for a second time in a row by Rick Dutrow, who does tend to use this move when horses need a start off layoffs. That's exactly how this guy ran last time, showing his customary early speed before getting very leg weary in the final furlong. That was 7 furlongs, and now he's cutting back to 6 furlongs, which should suit him better. He'll be tough to beat with any forward progression. Emerald Forest (#4) ran well against the bias two back, and last time ran into the inconsistent Tizmarkus, who as back in the mood to run one of his top efforts. It's a step up in class, but he's logical in the current form. My top pick is Divine Leader (#7), who didn't get an ideal trip in that same race. He was off a step slowly and then steadied back at the three-eighths pole, losing ground when he was already out of position. He actually stayed on decently for fourth while never threatening. I'm obviously a little wary of a horse exiting the JKX/Summers operation, but his efforts for the new barn are slightly better than they look. He drew outside and can get back to attaining forward position with a clean break this time.