TimeformUS Race Analysis
David Aragona posts his picks & plays each live race day.
Friday, December 5
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
In what has to be an early contender for worst race of the winter season at Aqueduct, you're basically stuck with a choice between unappealing options. I'll go with the less exposed Cara's Chianti (#1) over 0 for 25 maiden Autumn's Turn (#6), who defeated her last time. Not much more to say.
RACE 2
There doesn't appear to be that much true speed signed on in this $40k claimer, which should suit Barksdale (#5). This one-dimensional frontrunner had to duel for the lead two back and understandably faded going 7 furlongs. However, he hung in pretty well in a race that completely fell apart late. He then got back on track last time in his second start off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci, digging in to just miss in a 3-way photo finish. His paired up 111 TimeformUS Speed Figures are among the best numbers in this field. He also doesn't figure to get much of a challenge from main pace rival Social Hour (#2), who is his uncoupled stablemate. Barksdale will take money due to Flavien Prat riding, but I do think he's the most likely winner. Trust Issues (#4) is the other horse for me after he broke inward and got shuffled back at the start last time. He has more early speed than that, but I don't think he's as naturally quick as Barksdale.
RACE 3
The two horses who hit the board in the Sleepy Hollow last time figure to vie for favoritism as they drop back in against maiden company. Max Money (#1) was a big price that day, but will be a fraction of those odds here with Flavien Prat taking the mount. He improved going longer, and has worked 3 times since getting vanned off in that race. Fourth and One (#2) didn't really regress stretching out even though he settled for third. The pace came apart and he never quit. I slightly prefer his early speed. I just want to take a small shot against this obvious pair with Twenty One Red (#5), who tries dirt for the first time. Perhaps he was running on turf early on because he just didn't handle dirt. Or maybe it was became he's a half-brother to a turf sprinter, King Moonracer, that George Weaver trained. I actually liked the visual of a dirt work of his from this summer, and Weaver has good stats making this move. He's 8 for 26 (31%, $3.60 ROI) going from turf to dirt in maiden routes over the last 5 years. This son of Tonalist has been one-paced sprinting, and should appreciate the added ground.
RACE 4
Ministerial (#5) is a standout on paper. All 4 of his career victories have come against claiming competition, and he's dropping back down to a realistic level as he returns from a layoff for Wesley Ward, who does deceptively well with his dirt routers. The only problem I can see is the layoff. This horse has not run particularly well when he has returned from layoffs of similar length in the past, needing to race himself into fitness. I don't think he has that much room for error if he needs a start, and he figures to get bet strongly with Prat up. Best Bet (#7) is a gate-to-wire threat as the lone speed, but he's a question mark going this 9-furlong distance. Bob John Ray (#6) is one of the few outside of the favorite that actually seems to want this distance, but he beat a weaker field last time. I'll instead try He's Got This (#3), another who has to prove he can go this far. Yet he was facing a tougher group when he last tried this distance at Saratoga, and has since gotten back into decent form. Trainer Robert Johnston does well off the claim, including with dirt routers. It's not a strong opinion, but I do expect this horse to offer the best value.
RACE 5
This race isn't lagging far behind the opener in the race to the bottom. I suppose Rose Lisa (#4) is going to be a heavy favorite by default, even though she's never set foot on dirt in the afternoon. She's clearly the best horse in the race, and her pedigree is versatile enough to suggest she'll handle dirt. I still don't have nearly enough confidence to take a very short price on her. It's just that coming up with an alternative is problematic. The only horse I could get to is one with a similar profile to the favorite. Wayward Queen (#6) has been overmatched in two prior maiden special weight attempts on turf. Yet even more so than Rose Lisa, she's not really bred for grass. Solomini is a good dirt route influence, and she's got more dirt pedigree on the dam's side. This filly gets a significant rider upgrade from the last race. I know the barn rarely wins on the NYRA circuit, but I wouldn't let connections scare you off anyone in this hungry field.
RACE 6
The drop in class for Airborne Elite (#7) has to be viewed with some skepticism. It appeared that Linda Rice had made a good claim for $40k when she picked this horse up out of a win at Ellis Park and he ran back to that effort first off the claim for her. However, he then disappointed for Saratoga, and now it's like she can't get rid of him fast enough as she immediately drops in for $17,500 off a layoff. He may win, but there are some red flags at a very short price. I'll try to beat him from the front end with Ace It (#2), who makes his second attempt to return from a layoff for Carlos Figuerora. I had liked him when he was entered at this level in September, but he lost his rider at the start. All of his prior races came during his 2-year-old season, so it's reasonable to expect some improvement through maturity. The long layoff and drop in for a bottom-level claiming tag raise some questions, but it's not like he would fit in tougher races on this circuit. He actually held his own against some tough competition before tailing off last year. He appears to be working well for the return and figures to show speed if he's live.
RACE 7
The two favorites in this starter allowance don't do that much for me. I'm against Love Me Not (#3), who has more of a two-turn profile overall and couldn’t' have gotten a better trip when he last raced on dirt over this track in October. He has some flashy speed figures, but I worry the pace of this race could be too quick for him. Main rival Systemic Change (#1) seems a little more reliable as he makes his first start off the claim for Mike Maker. He has run well to win his last two starts going this distance, and was badly pace-compromised behind Love Me Not two back. He's quite logical, but I slightly prefer Sagamore Mischief (#6) as the alternative to both of these runners. This speedy gelding looks like the quickest of them all early, and I like him stretching back out to a mile where he's had the most success in the last year. He was gritty to win two back, and then seemed to briefly lose focus when shut off in upper stretch last time before trying to come back late. I like the outside draw, and he appears to fit well at this level.
RACE 8
The one-mile distance of this New York-bred maiden is the prevailing variable that could separate the contenders. Few are proven going this far, which is one reason why a horse like Askingforafriend (#7) could attract support. He has actually run well over this one-mile distance, but that lone competitive dirt effort was achieved over a sloppy track out of the Wilson Chute at Saratoga. The other reason that he'll take money is that he's ridden by Flavien Prat, who has been getting hammered by the bettors in nearly every race at Aqueduct since the start of this meet. All of the other contenders are stretching out in distance. A few of them exit the same Nov. 14 race at 6 1/2 furlongs, where Twohonestmischief (#3) finished nearest to the winner at the end. This horse has had prior opportunities to try the mile and has failed to get the distance, but he does appear to be in better form now than when he last stretched out. Kaz Oil Changer (#2) might be the most convincing of all for the stretch-out, since he started out his career in a pair of 9-furlong races. This one-mile trip should be a happy medium for him after he got outrun sprinting last time. I want to bet Probability (#5). This horse was mildly disappointing when hyped during his 2-year-old season. He did have some excuses, catching a sloppy track on debut and racing a bit greenly in both starts. He just seemed like a work in progress that would appreciate more ground, and now he's finally stretching out as a more mature horse. He also switches into the barn of Will Walden, who can have runners ready off layoffs and has performed very well with the horses he ships to the NYRA circuit. Furthermore, I watched his recent Nov. 16 workout at Churchill where he hooked up with the Brendan Walsh-trained Gosger. Probability clearly outworked the G1 Preakness runner-up, galloping out several lengths ahead past the wire. I'm expecting a big step forward in his return.
Thursday, December 4
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
It's hard to look beyond the two inside runners in this opener. I'll side with the experience of Relevate (#1), who did take advantage of a favorable rail path in her dirt debut. Yet she at least handled the surface at this level, which is more than just about anyone else in this field can claim. I didn't love the ride she got on turf last time, and I expect Christopher Elliott to handle her more aggressively. I would just be guessing with first time starter Waveless (#2), who has some pedigree as a daughter of Gun Runner. The worktab isn't too flashy, but she wouldn't need to be much to beat this group.
RACE 2
I'll be interested to see how this race plays out as a reference point for Saturday's 7th race, where Life and Times figures to go off as a heavy favorite. Three runners in this field chased home that winner last time, and they look like the main players here. I'll give one more chance to Time to Win (#3), who has been burning money at short prices. He didn't break very well last time, which put him out of position from the start. I would expect him to be more engaged early here with the switch to Flavien Prat. He strikes me as the most talented horse in this field, and I'll give him one more chance.Salvation (#1) did beat that rival last time, but now he's going to be a much shorter price than in recent starts, and I see limited upside with this former claimer. The interesting new face is Implacable (#5), who faded badly in his lone start in California against a pretty tough field. He has worked well since then, and has the profile of a horse who should be more comfortable with a slower pace going longer. He switches into a dangerous barn shipping to New York.
RACE 3
I'm not getting too creative here, as the two favorites appear to be the right ones. Shadow Surge (#4) had a legitimate excuse last time when he got a rare questionable ride from Flavien Prat, who elected to rate him in the early stages. He ended up getting shuffled all the way back to last and he was never going to be competitive from that position. He can bounce back here, but I still wonder if we'll see him get back to his best form as he makes his 4th start in just 8 weeks after spending so much time on the sidelines. I'll give the slight nod to Spirit Dragon (#7), who faded after chasing Shadow Surge on Nov. 1. Yet he was returning from a freshening that day, and he could be tighter for this second start off a layoff, just as he was when he made his first two career starts earlier this year. McDiesel (#1) is the only other horse I even considered for a barn that does have some decent stats second off a layoff. I just wish this horse had shown a little more competitive spirit in the last year.
RACE 4
After the scratch of my top two picks, I move into Rice's remaining runner Light the Way (#2) as my top pick. He's been in great form over the last few months, only failing to hit the board either in stakes races or on the turf ever since getting claimed by Rice. His speed should play well here. I slightly prefer him to Breslau (#1), who you probably wanted to have last time when he was 13-1. He'll be a fraction of that price now that his form is exposed, but he's obviously a major player after scratches. Nothing clever from me.
RACE 5
The three main players in this New York-bred maiden special weight all possess early speed, so there's certainly potential for this pace to heat up. Forever to Go (#7) will attract support merely due to the rider assignment as Flavien Prat takes over. She has the credentials to win a race like this, but I don't need her off such a long layoff at a short price. Three Nines Fine (#1) outdueled the heavy favorite on the front end last time, making her first start in over 5 months. She can step forward second off the layoff, but she isn't drawn particularly well on the rail, inside of her two main pace foes. I'm interested in a couple of others from that Nov. 6 race. The pace wasn't particularly fast, which worked against Patience N Grace (#3), who was off a step slowly and wide all the way around the far turn. She flattened out late while hanging on her left lead, and I wanted to see her finish a bit stronger. Yet now she's removing blinkers and getting a rider switch to Jaime Rodriguez, who rode well last week. My top pick is that race's third-place finisher Rare Society (#2). She has been a work in progress for Linda Rice, showing subtle improvement in each start. She was green when always outrun on debut in a large field last winter, and then was just being given a race on turf when she returned in October. She's meant for dirt as a daughter of Central Banker, and improved getting back on that surface last time. She was held up behind the pace early and lost some ground past the quarter pole before staying on in the last furlong. She's adds blinkers and should sit a good trip drafting in behind all that early speed. I expect another step forward.
RACE 6
It's hard to have a strong opinion in this $10k claimer where few are in great form. Both horses exiting that Ekwanok race at Finger Lakes make sense. Miss Lao (#1) is a little more inconsistent and has probably seen better days, now going out for a barn that doesn't win much on this circuit. Foxy Cara (#7) ran well after not breaking sharply last time out at Finger Lakes, and she had no chance on turf prior to that. Her conditioned claiming form stacks up well against this field, and she has the consistency that so many others in this field lack. The class of the field might be Floge (#4), who has generally been facing tougher company at slightly higher claiming levels. Yet these are tough connections to take at any kind of short price. Farm House (#3) is another who is mildly interesting as she drops in class after facing tougher since the claim. This will be her first dirt route for Dennis Lalman, and that's probably what she wants to do. She ran a bit better than it looks after a wide trip in her most recent dirt race.
RACE 7
I had trouble really warming up to anyone in this state-bred allowance optional claimer. Russian Realm (#5) figures to take money based purely on the rider switch to Flavien Prat, but I can't say that I'm in love with this recent form. He lacks early speed and has been pretty one-paced through the stretch of his recent starts. I also don't like his tendency to hang on his left lead. Wynstock (#3) is the class of the field as he drops in class out of some tougher open company allowance races, but he's another whose lack of early speed is a concern in a race without much pace. Palace Boss (#2) to bounce back from a poor effort last time. I'm not sure what went wrong that day, but it's a good sign that he's back with four workouts showing in the interim. He has rebounded from poor efforts in the past. I just have a little more confidence in Cut the Cord (#1), who typically shows up with a strong effort. He ran better than it looks in a couple of his recent starts for Ilkay Kantarmaci. He didn't appreciate being stuck inside last time, getting shuffled back on the far turn. Now he's claimed by Rob Falcone in what might be his first horse for Eddie F's Racing. The key for this gelding may be getting Kendrick Carmouche back aboard, since he's ridden him well in the past.
RACE 8
It's another race where the logical horses appear to be the right ones. I imagine that either Register (#9) or Frizzante (#11) will win, since they are the two fastest and classiest horses in the field. The former has superior tactical speed and that pushed him into my top slot. It doesn't hurt that he's getting a rider upgrade to Flavien Prat, but that will negatively affect the price. Frizzante has kept solid company recently, but he tends to settle for minor awards, and he will require some pace to develop. He is going out for a barn that has been on a roll lately at Aqueduct.
