TimeformUS Race Analysis
David Aragona posts his picks & plays each live race day.
Monday, May 25
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
Ican (#3) will beat this field if he gets back to his best form. It's pretty easy to excuse his first start off the claim for Linda Rice since he was stuck down on a dead rail on Jan. 10. However, the subsequent layoff leads me to believe that something went awry after that. He's now returning from a four-month layoff dropping in for the lowest claiming tag of his career. Rice can win with these types, but I do wonder if this horse's best days are behind him. Momentum Files (#5) was ridden very aggressively in that first start for Rudy Rodriguez last time, getting gunned to the lead through a fast opening quarter before fading. He might benefit from more patient tactics here. My top pick is The Toy Cannon (#2), who moves up to face older rivals for the first time. He met a tough rival in the talented Wonder Mist last time out and had little chance once he failed to make the lead. Prior to that, he just couldn't get a mile. I think he's back at the right distance and level, and he should play out as the main speed from the inside.
RACE 2
With this race coming off the turf, attention will turn to the MTO runners. Frizzante (#8) has the more consistent form as he makes his second start off this claim for Linda Rice, though not his second start for the barn as she has had him before. While he ran pretty well off the barn change last time, I thought he had an opportunity to run up into second and he just flattened out in the late stages. He's a horse who generally is content to settle for minor awards, and there won't be much pace left in here to set up his late run. Therefore, I prefer Castle Chaos (#9). I know his wet track record looks poor, but that was primarily compiled against much tougher company than he's facing here. He ran competitive at a higher level off teh claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci last time, and can progress here in his second start for the barn. His tactical speed should ensure that he works out the right trip. Life and Light (#3) could play out as the controlling speed, but I'm not sure he's quite this good on dirt.
RACE 3
Linda Rice holds a strong hand in this off the turf claimer. Among those entered for grass, Leslie's Star (#8) owns one of the highest dirt speed figures for that sixth-place finish against much tougher maiden foes earlier in her career. She's concentrated exclusively on turf since then, but she's still relatively unexposed on dirt and is certainly finding the right field for this switch back to the main track. Twirling Lulu (#1) looks like the one to catch from the rail, but she's just not nearly as good on dirt as she is on turf, so I'm unsure how far a possible pace advantage will carry her. I want the other Rice runner, Baseball Lady (#9), who is the lone MTO in this field. I know it might look liks he can't handle a wet track based on the last race, but the real issue that day was that she found herself behind and between horses early. She always refuses to stride out when she's put in tight quarters, but she actually did some running in the stretch that day once she angled into the clear. Drawing outside shoudl be ideal for her, and she figures to get a clear run stalking Twirling Lulu. Her best dirt races are certainly good enough to handle this field.
RACE 4
None of the runners in this field are particularly trustworthy. Schlomo (#2) can obviously win if he progresses in his second start off a layoff. He's protected with the waiver for a second time in a row, but there's no guarantee that he's going to get back to his best form prior to the long break. His early speed makes him dangerous since there doesn't appear to be a ton of pace in here, but I didn't want to settle for a short price on him. Thrill Of It (#4) shouldn't be totally outrun early, and he's dropping back down to the right level. He just hasn't won a race in so long. I had originally wanted to take a shot with Enduring Spirit (#5), but the sustained rainfall should leave the track in condition that isn't to his liking. I'll instead settle on Princip (#6), who might have run better than Schlomo when they met on May 2. He was pushed extremely wide on the far turn and kept churning on late despite the significnat ground loss. His lack of early speed is a concern, but he has run well over wet tracks in the past. The price should be fair enough.
RACE 5
This race coming off the turf should suit Trading Strategy (#4), who never really improved switching to grass for Chad Brown. She had a valid excuse in her last dirt race in October when she was caught wide against a rail bias. Her prior dirt efforts were just fine, and the best effort of her career came in the lone two-turn dirt try at Keeneland during her 2-year-old season. She seems cut out for the 1 1/4 miles distance of this race, and may play out as one of the main speeds. Between the two Todd Pletcher trainees, I slightly prefer Baffle (#3) at a bigger price than stablemate Whitethorn (#2). The former was overmatched in the Gazelle last time, but strikes me as the type that wants to run all day. Whitethorn owns the fastest speed figures in the race, but has disappointed at short prices on dirt, and I'm not sure that added ground helps her. Stand the Rain (#5) does have one competitive dirt race, but she really improved on turf last year. I imagine she's staying in to prep for a return to turf.
RACE 6
There is no dirt form left in this maiden claimer after scratches. Just One More (#5) figures to go favored by default based on her superior turf races and the intriguing claim by Amelia Green. While her pedigree looks all turf at first glance, a few of her siblings did handle dirt adequately, including full-brother Voodoo Song. I still don't want to take too short a price on her. The only interesting alternative that I could come up with is Gresham's Law (#4), whose lone dirt race was a failure primarily due to her own greenness. She broke slowly and just seemed to freak out when she felt kick back, taking herself out of the race. She showed more speed in her second start on turf before again dropping back early. I'm hoping that she's more focused on going forward with the addition of blinkers. Whoever gets in front early can wire this field.
RACE 7
Sweet Laura (#1) is obviously the horse to beat as a 14-time winner in the best form of her career right now. She's based on Parx, but she easily won her lone prior race at Aqueduct three back. She has since carried that form forward, chasing home graded stakes winner Irish Maxima before easily beating a weaker field last time. If she runs as well here, she's going to be a handful, but the price figures to be short. Snide (#8) has run nearly as well in recent starts. She defeated the sharp Grace and Grit two back and last time chased home improving 3-year-old filly Point of Reference. She's drawn well outside with tactical speed, and it's a good sign that Linda Rice is coming back on short rest. Those are the two likely favorites, but I think Sailaway (#7) has a chance for a minor upset. Her last race was flattered when Waveless returned to win. She didn't run as well two races back, but Sailaway was compromised by a wide trip against the rail bias that day. She's been steadily improving since getting claimed by Gustavo Rodriguez and she appears to be working well for this return from a brief freshening. If any pace develops, she figures to be rolling late. She also has done her best work when there's some moisture in the track.
RACE 8
I don't have much interest in this race after scratches. There appears to be some pace in here, which should also suit closer Sharp Spark (#1). He should appreciate getting back on dirt after a failed turf experiment last time, and he ran a big race in the slop on Mar. 12 when beating some runners who would be clear favorites in a race like this. Register (#5) does his best work when he can be forwardly placed, and I would imagine Silvestre Gonzalez will ride him aggressively first off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci. He has some races that can be competitive here, but he just lacks consistency. Passioned (#2) becomes a little more intriguing after Anthony Ferraro sent out a similar runner to win at a price yesterday. He has run well over wet tracks before and his last two efforts make him competitive here.
RACE 9
Guilty (#2) figures to take money here as the likely speed from the inside. He's dropping in for a tag for the first time, and the ability to attain forward position should aid him. I'm not way against him, but I did think he would sustain some early pressure from MTO runner Hong Kong Phooey (#11) to his outside. I slightly prefer that runner due to his dirited up recent form going longer. Getting back to 6 furlongs should help him. Rudy's other runner Ready Set Twirl (#6) also makes sense after failing to get a mile last time. He's run respectably in his last couple of dirt sprints, albeit at lower levels than this. My top pick is the obvious Sports Hero (#5), who ran a race in breaking his maiden last time that would beat this field. He's stepping up against a slightly tougher group here, but his efforts had been stronger than they appeared heading into that last race. Chris Elliott has figured out how he needs to be ridden, held up early and asked to sprint late.
Sunday, May 24
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
Shining Moment will obviously scratch from this race, since she broke her maiden at Churchill earlier this week. However, Wesley Ward has a pretty good substitute in first time starter Timbertop (#6), who takes on the boys. She does have more dirt than turf in her pedigree, but it could go either way. She's a three-quarter sister to Tiz Splendid News, a very fast multiple dirt sprint winner. I'm sure Ward wouldn't mind this race getting rained off the grass, but it looks like this filly looks like she can really run on dirt. I watched that May 16 gate drill, and she was under a hammerlock hold in company with an overmatched stablemate, wanting to do much more than she was allowed. There are a couple of main track only runners in here. Tyson's Gamble (#8) has the best pedigree for dirt, being a half-brother Whittington Park, Looms Boldly, and Critical Value, and appears to be working forwardly for Brad Cox.
RACE 2
I don't have a clever opinion here. I watched some of the recent workouts for first time starter Boom Shocka Boom (#1) and wasn't thrilled with what I saw. He just doesn't appear to have a ton of staying power, and it's taken him a long time to get to the races. None of the alternatives are terribly compelling, but I'll take a shot with Always Honest (#5), who hasn't sprinted since early January. He's a big horse who may have needed some time to grow into his frame, and his early sprints weren't that bad.
RACE 3
I'm not trying to beat likely favorite Pocket Queens (#5), who gets significant class relief as she drops back in for a tag. She just hasn’t' really progressed since returning from a layoff this winter, and this seems like the right class level at this point in her career. It also helps that there appears to be plenty of speed in here to set up her late run. That was the main thing holding me back from taking a shot against her with Moon Gate (#7). I do think this filly is the most interesting alternative as she makes her first start off the claim for the underrated Linda Dixon. It's just hard to envision her getting loose up front and she usually needs the lead to win.
RACE 4
There's still some dirt form in this field even after it got rained off the turf. Majestic Return (#8) looks like the main speed and she has run well over wet tracks before, but she figures to get some early pressure from the runner drawn to her outside. I'm hoping that Howling Wind (#5) sits a good stalking trip just off them. She moved too soon into a pace that collapsed last time, but that effort was a step back in the right direction for her. She's in much better form now than when she previously tried a surface like this. The other logical contender Nina Kay (#4) needs some pace assistance, but is obviously a strong fit here based on recent form. I just figured Howling Wind would be a slightly better price.
RACE 5
I'm not really against logical dropdown Kay Road (#7). She ran races two and three back that should put her in the winner's circle at this level. The only drawback is that she ran poorly last time, and that was her only time trying a sloppy, sealed track, which she will probably encounter again on Sunday. She still merits respect, but the price will be short. I'll take a small shot against her with Big Jackie (#1). She's just getting significant class relief as she makes her first start for a tag. I know she hasn't done much running her prior dirt races, but he was green on debut. I thought had some upside coming out of that effort, and may be this will be the spot where she can finally take that next step forward. Both her dam Aunt Babe and sibling Sanzio improved through racing.
RACE 6
This starter allowance for New York-breds is highly competitive as all of the 7 entrants are in with a chance. I think trips and pace could determine the outcome, and I would expect Our Preferred Pal (#2) to get another aggressive ride from her inside post position. Ruben Silvera has gunned her to the front end in two of his three rides aboard her. She just found six furlongs to be too short when she failed to make the front two back, and had some subtle traffic throughout that race. She's otherwise been in good form since returning from a layoff this winter. It did take her 14 attempts to break her maiden. Yet she has this starter condition available to her, which makes facing winners less of a step up in class than it normally would be. I think she's the most likely winner, and she probably won't be favored. Scarlet's Dream (#7) looks like one of her main pace rivals breaking from the outside post. She beat a weaker field when she won at the $30k conditioned claiming level last time, but it does feel like Keri Brion finally has her back in decent form. She had run races a year ago at this time that would beat this field, and she's steadily been coming back around for the new barn. A. P. Slingshot (#4) was defeated by that foe when they met on April 10, but she got the winner's circle at that level last time. She's stepping up in class as well, but has been pretty reliable lately, and should be closing late to pick up pieces for at least a minor award.
RACE 7
There isn't much left in this field after the surface switch and scratches. Sarir (#10) draws in from the MTO list and appears to tower over this field from a class perspective. Her recent form is obviously less than desirable, but she was compromised by racing outside against a rail bias two back, and faced much tougher rivals last time. I actually don't mind her stretching out a bit since she's bred to do it, and has always struck me as a horse who has the stride pattern to get longer distances. The toughest rival might be Luckforyou (#4), who has run well in the slop before and put in a pretty game effort in her last dirt race. I just don't think she's nearly as good as Sarir if they both show up.
RACE 8
Vibrant Express (#9) is clearly the horse to beat after this race has been rained off the dirt. Since getting put on Lasix following a bleeding incident in his debut, he has been nearly perfect in 6 subsequent starts. His only loss last time could be attributed to rider error, since he was somehow dragged back to last after breaking sharply, which is the opposite of his running style. He still ran on gamely for second, arguably putting in one of the strongest efforts of his career. If he runs as well here, he's going to be a handful. Light Man (#8) was off a layoff in that same race and got mildly shuffled back to upper stretch, but still was never beating Vibrant Express. I don't want to give him too much of an excuse since this horse has run well off layoffs in the past. My price idea to beat the favorite is actually his stablemate War Stride (#6). It's unclear if this horse can still perform at this level, but I think it's a positive sign that he ran as well as he did off the layoff on turf last time. That's not really his preferred surface, but he still was competitive with a tough field. He ran some dirt races over this course last winter and spring that would make him a danger, and if he figures to get the right setup if the 3 MTO runners with speed hook up with the speedy What's Up Bro early.
RACE 9
Awesome Empire (#3) seems logical as he switches back to his preferred dirt surface. His form has tailed off a bit, but this appears to be the right level for him. Secured Freedom (#7) is another who appears to fit here on recent form, though he is moving up in class off the claim. I wonder if he'll get overbet based on the perception of having an affinity for an off track. Ambition (#5) probably won't get the respect he deserves due to connections. He was in too tough when he last ran on dirt in early April, but he had been in great form prior to that. He's dropping to the right level. The other horse I want to use at what should be an even bigger price is Sara's Shaman (#6). Some of these Kantarmaci runners shipping in from Oaklawn have done well in their initial NYRA starts, and I'm hoping that's the case with this horse. I don't love that his best races came in Texas, but he still put in decent efforts in Arkansas. He strikes me as a horse who will appreciate the one-turn mile of this race, and he picks up Manny Franco.
