TimeformUS Race Analysis
David Aragona posts his picks & plays each live race day.
Friday, February 20
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
Raghba (#5) easily beat two of her main rivals when chasing home next-out winner Lost Horizon last time. If she holds that form here, she'll probably win. It was a good sign that she was able to sit much closer to the pace that day, which should give her a tactical edge. That is, unless first time starter Inefficiency (#3) shows speed. It's hard to know what to expect from this filly, but Chad Brown tends to do well with older first time starters. She had reportedly trained well once upon a time. Chad Brown has amazing statistics with these types. He is 14 for 26 (54%, $3.60 ROI) with 4YO+ first time starters in maiden special weight races. Within that sample, he's 8 for 15 ($3.15 ROI) on dirt, and 4 for 5 ($5.64 ROI) in dirt routes.
RACE 2
I found it hard to really warm up to anyone in this maiden claimer. I suppose Linda Rice has a good shot to win this with both of her entrants looking fairly logical. I prefer Antietam (#4), who met tougher at the $75k level last time, and should be fitter as he drops down second off the layoff. Ice Shot (#5) earned a strong speed figure last time, but that number was hardly flattered when winner Sequential came back to disappoint on Thursday. Shellac (#2) is mildly interesting getting back on dirt, but I wonder if he really wants to go this far.
RACE 3
After the scratch of Apalta, I'm not trying to beat Linda Rice's other horse Fever Night (#3). He against the track on a dead rail last time, and didn't run as badly as it might look when losing at a short price. I didn't love the form of that race upon initially handicapping, but it was flattered when third-place Egyptian came back to run so well on Thursday. Fever Night has plenty of prior races that could beat his stablemate and should be a better price. Whitby (#1) and Maldini (#6) seem the two main rivals. The former has dangerous speed but has to prove he can get the distance, and I tend to think the Rice runner just has more ability.
RACE 4
There isn't much to say about this one. It appears to come down to the two speeds, Flat On (#3) and Laughing Boy (#5). I slightly prefer the latter, since Flat On was carried by a strong rail bias when he won last week. I also think Laughing Boy has the better overall form, but I don't want to make a strong push for either one. I just couldn’t get to anyone else.
RACE 5
Once again, I couldn't get creative here. Frankie Coffeecake (#5) ran well on debut at Parx and took a step forward when finishing a solid second here last time. He traveled well in behind the speeds and made a nice run along the rail before all of those contesting the pace got swallowed up by the closing winner. This field doesn't appear to be quite as tough, and he should be a handful. Mitolegayne (#1) may improve after taking money in his debut and finishing well behind the top pick. I just wonder about his trip since there's other speed drawn directly outside of him. Bold Love (#7) has only run on turf so far, but he has more of a dirt pedigree and goes out for a dangerous barn.
RACE 6
Linda Rice scratched one of her runners, but still has the likely favorite. Coquito (#3) owns solid recent form, having hit the board in 7 of her last 8 starts. She most recently won against $20k foes, but that was a conditioned claiming race and this might be a slightly tougher spot. She's claimed back by Linda Rice, who failed to get a win out of her when she previously had her in the barn during a couple of periods last year. I'll try to beat the favorite with My First Love (#1). This 7-year-old mare has been competitive at this level for a long time. It might appear that she's gone off form in recent starts, but she was against a track bias on Jan. 11 when she was glued to the rail throughout. That particular day didn't feature quite as strong a dead rail as the surrounding days, but it still wasn't ideal to spend all that time inside. She's sprinted recently, but 5 of her 8 career victories have come at this one mile distance. She's been claimed back by Rob Atras, who has had success with her in the past, and it's encouraging that he scratched her out of an easier spot last week for this instead.
RACE 7
I'm mildly against Undergrad (#4), the horse who was the overlay of 2026 when going off at 4-1 last time following a crazy six-figure bet on a rival from a CAW account. That was a very weak maiden special weight, and she won with the aid of a rail bias and slow pace. She still fits here as she steps up against winners, but she's no standout. Pace rival I'm Kidding (#7) has run some faster races, but she's hard to trust and was also aided by a bias last time. The horse with the best overall form might be Graceful Rose (#1), who has consistently faced some of the best competition. Her form isn't quite as consistent as she once was, but she did run well in a similar spot last time despite not getting much of a setup. There does appear to be enough pace in here to create fair race flow. If things come apart, even Fifi La Fume (#6) could get involved. I know she's been more of a turf horse, but it's not like she improved that much when she initially made the transition to turf last year. This could be merely a prep for turf, but she may just be a better horse in the overall sense these days and she's going to be a generous price.
RACE 8
Forgone (#6) figures to take some money after finishing a decent third at this level last time. He was a horse that got targeted at routes from the beginning of his career, and he physically looks like one that is better suited to going longer. I just don't want to bet on him improving at a short price. Toga Dan (#4) is the obvious trip horse. He had two major factors working against him in that last race. First, he was stuck on a dead rail early, and second, he got badly shuffled back in traffic on the far turn before rallying again late. He fits based on prior form, and can win this if he runs as well as last time. I'm using him, but I think they all could have a tough time catching Romeo Void (#7). This horse clearly improved since returning from a layoff last fall, and getting back on dirt appears to have been the key to finally unlocking his potential. He was beating a weaker field last time, but he absolutely dominated with a 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure. A repeat of that number will put him right back in the winner's circle here, and he's drawn perfectly outside as a horse who isn't always quickest out of the gate.
Thursday, February 19
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
Neither favorite seems particularly trustworthy in this opener. Just Music (#3) is a standout in terms of class and speed figures, but the layoffs and drop in class are a concern. She also doesn't possess much early speed, and it doesn't appear that there is that much pace in here to set up her late run. Broadway Lights (#4) will be a short price by default with Prat aboard, but her dirt form doesn't exactly make merit that support. She was against a bias last time, but that's not enough to make me take an underlay on her. I'll instead go to Bobby Jean (#6), who is getting significant class relief after racing tougher N1X allowance fields. She was taken back at the start last time, which proved to be the wrong move. She spent the second half of the race on the rail, and it was dominated by outside movers. She's clearly better than that, and will be tough here if able to get back to her dirt form from November. The slight cutback helps, and she's dropping to a realistic level.
RACE 2
This $50k conditioned claimer came up unusually strong for the level, which begs the question why a few of these horses are being risked for a $50k claiming tag. That list is headed by Bourbon Chase (#1), who makes his first ever start for a tag. While he's never been the most reliable win candidate, he has been a solid earner for his connections, hitting the board in 16 of 21 starts while banking over $330k. He was in the best form of his career for Mike Maker last winter, but there obviously isn't an expectation that he'll get back there after having been off for a year. Radio Red (#7) is another who will be risked for a claiming tag for the first time in his career, and he's also coming off an extended layoff. This horse was eased when last seen, and it's hard to use the wet track as the only excuse since he has handled off tracks before even if they aren't his preference. Danny Gargan does well off layoffs, but he's 0 for 8 with non-maidens making their first start for a tag over 5 years. I want to go in a different direction with Disarmed (#6), the only horse in this race not being risked for a tag, as he is protected by the waiver option for the second time in a row. He also missed time following his narrow loss in March of last year, and some might be deterred by his lackluster result when he came back in December. However, the trip didn't work out for him, as he hopped at the start and then chased wide against a rail bias. Rudy Rodriguez doesn't have great stats off those types of layoffs anyway. Disarmed now returns two months later and should be able to get back to some of his better efforts from the past. He's quick enough to secure the early lead in a race that doesn’t feature an abundance of speed, and that's his preferred style.
RACE 3
I don't have a major knock against Apollo Code (#3), who appears to be the most likely winner of this starter allowance. He set a fast pace last time and won the duel before succumbing to the late charge from a longshot. The only potential vulnerability as he returns in a similar spot is that there is once again plenty of speed to keep him company up front. That's a concern as he tries to get an extra half-furlong. The alternatives all have their flaws, but at least Fric and Frac (#1) comes in with some upside. This horse clearly needed his debut on dirt, and significantly improved when returning to that surface last time. He got a great trip, stalking in the pocket before angling out, but the runner-up has since returned to flatter the form. He's drawn well again, and I like that he's being protected off the win.
RACE 4
All three potential favorites in this race are exiting efforts where they were compromised by track biases. The one who ran best through a bias is Best Bet (#1), who nearly overcame a dead rail to win on Jan. 10. However, he did get away with a clear early lead in that spot, and the same was true two back. That might not be the case here as he turns back to a sprint, and I wonder if those 9-furlong tries will have dulled his speed. Stolen Base (#6) also was on a dead rail last time, but he didn't cope nearly as well, giving up in the stretch. He's getting significant class relief, but it is fair to wonder if he can ever bounce back after going off form. Master of Arms (#2) is the bias-compromised contender that I want. He was stuck on the Jan. 9 dead rail in a race that was totally dominated by horses rallying outside. Dot's Dollar exited a similar trip in that same race to win last week. This horse's prior form makes him the one to beat. My one alternative idea is Lucky Dude (#8), who ships in from Parx for the capable John Kirby. He was pretty impressive making a wide move to win from off the pace last time, and that race was ben flattered by runbacks. He appears to be in some of the best form of his career right now, and he should benefit from an outside stalking trip as long as the track is back to playing fairly.
RACE 5
Spirit of Esther (#6) may finally win a race after taking money and settling for minor awards in a string of races at or around this level over the last year. She ran better than it looks when dropped to this level last time since she spent the majority of her trip down on the Jan. 9 dead rail. I acknowledge that she's the most likely winner, but I'm still not keen to take a short price on her. I want a couple of late runners as alternatives. One of those is That'sthefactjack (#2), who has occasionally run races that can beat this field. The problem is that she's pretty unreliable, but I do think her last race is better than it looks since she was glued to the dead rail by her apprentice jockey. It's hard to have a ton of faith that she'll put two good races back to back, but the price should be fair. The other closer that I want is Mia Nipotina (#3), who has faced subtly better fields in recent starts at the $17,500 level. She's getting some class relief here, and there appears to be a fair amount of pace for her. She obviously needs it, since she's a deep closer, but I like that she's reunited with Eric Cancel. He rides these types well and piloted her in some of her best efforts here last season.
RACE 6
If you trust Meg's Foxy Grey (#2) to show up with the form we saw out of her last fall, she's going to beat this field. She's only eligible for this race because she was disqualified out of her win at this level in November due to a medication positive for betamethasone (yes, the Medina Spirit drug). She ran about as well in her next start at a higher level and I actually prefer her going 7 furlongs. I suppose the main threat is a potential pace challenge from Princess Ny (#3), who I don’t really like as a win candidate but should be sent forward early. Perhaps Linda Rice will use some team tactics here, as her other entrant Brunch With Amy (#1) runs best from just off the pace. She finished well for second behind the improving Sassy Princess last time, and I actually like this slight turnback for her. This could turn out to be a good claim for Rice, and she possesses the tactical speed to get a favorable pocket trip this time.
RACE 7
Burninhunkoflove (#3) and Play (#2) both ran well when finishing second and fourth in a similar spot at this level on Jan. 11. Both were only briefly inside during their trips and generally weren't badly compromised by the track surface. Play did himself no favors by breaking slowly, but it's not the first time he has failed to break sharply. They are obviously contenders, but I had more interest in another. Great Richie M (#8) was returning from a brief layoff when he tried that $16k claimer on Jan. 9, one of the days that featured a dead rail. He broke from the inside and spent the first two-thirds of that race on the rail before angling just off the inside in the lane. That was not an ideal trip on the day, especially in a race dominated by outside horses. He also had a right to need one off the layoff, and now he's racing first off the claim for a barn that can here and doesn't claim that many horses. He's been a closer recently, but this outside post may help him stay more engaged early.
RACE 8
After the scratch of the Linda Rice horse I preferred, Sequential (#9) arguably becomes the horse to beat. He did defeat a pretty good rival last time while somewhat against the track profile. However, it's hard to trust him to repeat that effort since none of his prior form matches up. Ambridge (#2) is a candidate to do better second off a layoff after chasing and fading in the mud last time. After reassessing this race, I'm interested in a couple of prices from off the pace. One of those is Resilient Hero (#5), who gets needed class relief after chasing tougher at the allowance level. I didn't love his last race but he gets blinkers back on here. The other closer that I want to use is Ambition (#6), who is dropping out of a much tougher spot last time. While he was on the rail for the early part of his trip, the slow pace of that 9-furlong affair worked against the closers. He finished right around some runners who would be favored in here, and he's probably going to be a price just because of the low-profile connecitons.
