TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

It's pretty clear that Moe Eighty Eight (#4) is the most naturally talented horse in this field, but I do think you have to be a little concerned about how the track has been playing this week. Speed was an advantage on Wednesday, and speed and the rail appeared to be dominant on Thursday. That could be an issue for a horse that has made wide, looping moves to win each of his last two starts. If he runs back to that 109 Beyer and 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure performance going this distance last time, everyone else is running for second. I just wonder how much room for error he has over this racetrack. Given the track profile, I want to upgrade Protected (#3), who I had initially liked quite a bit when this race was first drawn on a cancelled day. Back then he was posted outside the rail-drawn Moe Eighty Eight. This time the posts are reversed, but that's not a bad thing given his early speed and inside position. I really liked his return effort when he chased home the talented National Identity, never giving up despite having to work hard to keep up with that tempo. He has been successful from the front end in the past, and I imagine Sahin Civaci will ride him more aggressively this time.

RACE 2

The expected scratch of Her Laugh leaves me with little enthusiasm for betting this race. There are obviously some questions about Lucille Ball (#3) repeating her return effort as she steps up against stakes company. Yet she may be encountering another speed-favoring surface, and the rescheduling of this Interborough has actually given her more time between races. She will be tough to catch, and I'm not trying to beat her.

RACE 3

This race has already been drawn a few times, and should finally get to be run on Friday. Gypsy Dreaming (#4) wasn't in the first iteration, but his presence should alter the pace scenario. He is the clear speed of the speeds, but he does have to step up against a slightly tougher field after beating a weak group of maidens in the mud. If pace develops, that should help both Lean Music Machine (#2) and Hard to Say (#7). Both are confirmed closers getting class relief. They come in with the best form, both going out for sharp barns, but I don't want to take particularly short prices on either one given their running styles. I have to take a shot with Majestic Arc (#5), who I have been waiting to bet since this race was first drawn. He might look a cut below these at first glance, but he has actually shown decent form since returning from a layoff last fall. He chased a quick pace two back going 7 furlongs, which is a bit too far for him. Then last time he was always extremely wide while racing against a rail bias. He actually did quite well to hold on for second in a race that was falling apart late. He goes out for underrated connections that can win at this time of year.

RACE 4

Maximus Meridius (#7) will scratch since he ran on Wednesday, and Doc Sullivan (#1) reportedly is not a confirmed starter, though he would be the horse to beat if he shows up here. This distance is perfect for Doc Sullivan and he has the tactical speed to work out a pocket trip that should be advantageous over this racetrack. The only problem is that his form is exposed right now for a hot barn, so he doesn't project to offer any value. I'm concerned about a lack of speed for Be You (#3), who is in good form at the moment. I've just never been the biggest fan of Victory Way (#6). He didn't beat much of a field last time and Vettriano hasn't flattered that form. He also may get hung wide stalking. I'm going in a different direction with Light the Way (#2), who may be the longest shot on the board. I know he looks a little slow based on his recent form, but Mike Maker has had success with expensive claims that he sends right into stakes company. He only finished a half-length behind Doc Sullivan when they met going this distance in the Vosburgh last fall. He is clearly quick enough to make the early lead and can take them all the way at a price.

RACE 5

Interceptor (#2) will probably go favored given his consistent speed figures, but I didn't love his first start off the claim for Mike Maker. He's always been a horse that tends to run in spots, and he got shuffled back on the turn before staying on belatedly for third. It's not clear that stretching back out to 9 furlongs really helps him, but he did draw well. The other horse who really benefited from this race getting redrawn is Turn and Count (#3), who finished ahead of Interceptor when they met on Dec. 11. Turn and Count did get controversially disqualified out of that win, but there's little doubt that he ran the best race. He was reserved off a slow pace early (all TimeformUS Pace Figures color-coded blue) and made a wide, sweeping move off the turn to challenge in the stretch. He got to lugging in late, as he often does, and did interfere with rivals. Yet it's still impressive that he ran by those foes despite the fact that his rider could barely control him. He's a natural rail-runner, so I like that he's drawn inside, and I've always viewed him as a horse who will relish 9 furlongs. The other horse I want to use at a bigger price is Brave Bear (#7). He's another who wants to run as far as he can, so I was skeptical of him turning back to a mile when he was outrun at this level last time. He also had a valid excuse in that race, since he was chasing wide against a gold rail on Nov. 29. He's dangerous here if he gets an aggressive ride from Jose Gomez.

RACE 6

I don't want to simply concede this race to Weigh the Risks (#4), as so many handicappers figure to do. I don't think it's some minor consideration that she's trying to get 9 furlongs for the first time, especially over a track that has been deep and tiring lately. There's no doubt that she's the most naturally talented horse in the race, but her advantage may not be as great as the last race suggests. She was riding a speed bias to that blowout Go For Wand victory, and I don't believe she has as much margin for error here as some may think. I'll try to beat her with Bernietakescharge (#2), who did defeat the favorite, albeit with the aid of a track bias, in the Heavenly Prize last year. That's still relevant information because Bernietakescharge may have another track bias in her favor on Friday. She's drawn inside of her rival and is clearly fast enough to make the early lead, especially under an aggressive Ruben Silvera. We already know she wants every bit of this 1 1/8 miles, and she's outrun her odds in stakes company before.

RACE 7

Mr. Ripple (#6) will take money dropping all the way down to this $10k level after having just raced for a tag once prior to this. He was pretty disappointing in that lone previous claiming attempt last time, failing to show up despite looking competitive on paper. This horse had been babied at Finger Lakes through last summer, but has generally been a disappointment despite spending time in some sharp barns. Between the likely favorites, I prefer Skylander (#10), who has generally faced much tougher rivals than this, also dropping down to the lowest level of his career. The only other time he ran nearly this cheaply he won decisively with a standout speed figure in October. He wasn't even disgraced against better foes at the $16k level last time, and a repeat of that performance will make him tough. The only horse I want to use against him is Run Happy Pappy (#7), who will offer better value. He dropped to this level last time and ran better than it looks. Ridden by a jockey who rarely wins on this circuit, he was just never in a comfortable spot. He was awkwardly positioned in traffic in upper stretch before rallying gamely through kickback late despite having to alter course. He has more speed than he showed that day, and figures to get a more aggressive ride from Ruben Silvera. He led in gate to wire fashion with a competitive speed figure at Monmouth last fall, and can get back to that form now that he's realistically spotted again.

RACE 8

I don't have a clever take on this Ruthless. Shilling (#7) didn't seem like she wanted any part of 1 1/8 miles when she stretched all the way out in the Demoiselle last fall. Cutting back to 7 furlongs suits her perfectly, and she's drawn well outside of other speed while probably fast enough to clear to the lead anyway. Main rival Two Bits (#5) shouldn't mind cutting back a furlong, but may need some pace help that she's unlikely to get.

RACE 9

This race had originally been drawn last week, and the rescheduling of this card forced the race to be redrawn. The field has mostly held together, but the change in post positions has most benefited morning line favorite Chillax (#1), who had last week been stuck in an outside gate. Now he gets the rail, and that has been a good place to be all week, especially on Thursday when staying inside was a significant advantage. Chillax faced some tough competition both at Saratoga and in Kentucky, and he just fits very well against this field that didn't draw the toughest field for the level. Another horse who benefits from his inside draw is Neon Bordeaux (#2), who has to prove that he can handle this step up in class. He got a very good trip when he won going this distance last time, and needs to run better here. Yet he has tons of stamina and should be staying on well going this demanding distance over a track that has been quite tiring. I wish Run Quiet Run Fast (#12) had gotten a better post position, because it's very difficult to be successful from the outside draw. I do think this horse has some upside switching into the Tom Morley barn, and believe the distance works for him. This might just not be the right spot given his projected trip, so I'll relegate his use to underneath. My top pick is Makes Sense (#7). I had interest in this colt last time when he made his first start off the claim for Chad Summers, who has been in the midst of a strong run over the last few months. I didn't like the trip this horse got, as he broke a step slowly and then was guided down to the rail. The race was dominated by horses closing from off the pace, and he got shuffled back along the inside, never seeming comfortable down there. He was doing some running in the stretch when he finally got off the rail, but was only making up ground belatedly. Now the blinkers come off, which may help him break more sharply. I think he wants every bit of this distance, and I'm hoping he can get forward position in a race that doesn't feature much pace.

RACE 10

I respect both Chad Brown entrants in this Withers. It's easy to have more confidence in Ottinho (#3) going the 9 furlongs than Schoolyardsuperman (#2), since the former has already done it. I also tend to think that Ottinho is simply the better horse, since he ran deceptively well on debut and beat a tough rival to break his maiden last time. They're the horses to beat, but I decided to take a shot with Grittiness (#1). The Remsen didn't come up as a particularly fast race, but I still think it was a strong field and wouldn't hold it against Grittiness that he finished fifth. All of Todd Pletcher runners in that Remsen had trouble, and Grittiness was certainly one of them. He just got pushed so wide coming around the far turn, losing momentum as he was spun out 6-wide coming to the quarter pole. I still believe he has upside going these longer distances, and drawing the rail figures to help his cause. I'll bet him at the expected price, since Withers this didn't draw the toughest field.

RACE 11

I really don't have a clever take on this finale. Factory Setting (#7) ran like a filly who needed her debut at Saratoga, and then last time she was in the midst of running a better race traveling well while waiting for room on the far turn before flattening out. The top two finishers have a bit of talent, and even a couple who finished behind her have flattered the form of that race. In my view, Factory Setting just ran like a horse who didn't really want to go a mile, so turning back to this sprint distance should suit her. She won't be an interesting price, but I had trouble seeing past her. The others with experience didn't do enough for me, since most lack early speed, and the firsters weren't quite convincing enough.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

I couldn't get too creative in this opener. I know Undergrad (#4) debuted in a maiden claimer, but that $30k maiden claimer against males might have been a tougher race than this maiden special weight against the fillies. She was slow into stride, but closed well for fourth, earning the fastest dirt speed figure in this field. It would be no surprise if she had more tactical speed this time, and any kind of improved early position would make her awfully tough for this group to beat.

RACE 2

This N1X allowance didn't draw a large field but it's fairly competitive. I'll take the wait and see approach with the two layoff runners who could take money, Paula's a Star (#3) and Bella Cleopatra (#7), though the former has clearly run the better races between the pair. Among those with recency, the one to beat is Romantic Dancer (#2), who chased home the talented Lucille Ball two back and then last time was second-best to the heavily-bet Atarah, who improved second off the claim for Linda Rice. That form makes her very logical here, but I think others have a bit more upside. Roman Grace (#1) is the one I prefer out of that Jan. 15 race. That was run during a period of time when the rail was a significant disadvantage, and Roman Grace spent most of her trip racing down inside. That was her first start off a layoff, and she has a right to move forward here with a better trip. The other horse I wanted to consider is Will Not Be Swayed (#5), who moves up in class after winning in her return to dirt for Linda Rice. This is a tougher spot, but I liked the way she traveled willingly through traffic and accelerated after waiting for room in upper stretch. I wouldn't be surprised if she won right back, but I do slightly prefer Roman Grace if she is indeed a better price.

RACE 3

The two open maiden special weight dropdowns look like the right options to me, not that I'm saying anything clever since they're the morning line favorites. Swiss Army Knife (#2) will take money primarily due to connections, with Flavien Prat taking over the mount. He has participated in some particularly tough maiden special weight races, and should appreciate this class relief. Note that Pletcher retains this horse after he went through the auction ring, bringing $60k in January. I slightly prefer main rival Gulfy (#3), who got a terrible trip last time out when he tried 9 furlongs. He probably doesn't want to go that far anyway, but he had little chance after getting hung wide every step of the way and making an early move. I thought this horse had shown some potential in those dirt races two and three back, and now he's getting a significant rider upgrade to Manny Franco.

RACE 4

The TimeformUS Pace Projector for this race points immediately to Maggie T (#4), who is predicted to lead this field in a scenario favoring frontrunners. I'm willing to be somewhat forgiving of her last race since she never has shown much affinity for a wet track, and she did run deceptively well two back when rated early and stymied inside down the lane. I still have some doubts about her ability to see out this 6 1/2 furlongs, but she is a contender given the pace scenario. Miss Lao (#6) appears to be in slightly better form, having just finished second at this level going longer. I don't mind her turning back to a sprint, though I do wonder if she'll be able to continue holding this form for a new barn. My top pick is Open Soul Autism (#7), who drew well outside as a horse who may benefit from an aggressive ride in this spot. She has run similar races in her last couple of starts, losing ground behind rivals on the turn before staying on late. I'm hoping she can stay more engaged this time now that Manny Franco is getting a second attempt aboard her. She clearly has the talent to win here, and she's a little more consistent than many of her rivals.

RACE 5

Tenacious Child (#4) will obviously be tough to beat as she drops in for a tag after encountering a pretty tough maiden special weight field on debut. I didn't think she did anything special in that spot, but she did show some greenness, hanging on her left lead through the stretch. If she merely runs back to that effort, it might be enough to put her in the winner's circle against this group. I just want to take a shot against her with a horse who I think ran better than it looks last time. Fairy Godmother (#9) debuted on turf for Ray Handal and was hardly disgraced after chasing the pace while racing wide. Her pedigree could go either way, and I don't think she ran that much worse when she switched to dirt last time. Dec. 13 was a day where speed appeared to be an advantage., and she was green while losing position early before staying on belatedly in the lane. The late interest leads me to believe that there's more dirt ability here than meets the eye, and she should be a fair price even on the class drop.

RACE 6

Both Mike Maker runners could take money in this state-bred allowance, and I don't trust either one. My primary issue with both Merica's Back (#3) and Fireballin (#4) is that they both struggled to get out of the gate. It's been a consistent issue for each of these horses, and it probably cost Merica's Back the victory when he tried this level last time. They each are returning with some changes this time, Merica's Back removing blinkers and Fireballin as a new gelding. I just expect them both to take money, and they're hard to trust on the win end. After the scratch of two of his main pace rivals, I think you have to upgrade Roofer (#2). I thought this horse benefited from an outside post last time when he was able to sit just off some dueling leaders and take over. He still battled gamely into the late stages, validating his narrow defeat two back after contesting another fast pace. He's a serious win contender. My top pick at a bigger price is Don Luis (#8), who also moves up in class after beating maiden optional claimers last time. He obviously has to improve on that effort to handle this field, but he is making his second start off the layoff for a dangerous barn. I liked the way he got right into position last time despite getting off slowly and squeezed back after the start. I think he performed better than the 3/4-length margin of victory would suggest, and his far outside post should mitigate the disadvantages of breaking slowly again.

RACE 7

Grace and Grit (#5) figures to take some money as she turns back in distance for Linda Rice. I didn't think she wanted any part of 1 1/8 miles, and was actually surprised she ran as well as she did in a couple of starts going that distance. She has relaxed much better in the early part of her races since the trainer switch to Linda Rice, but that less aggressive running style could be a hindrance as she cuts back into a faster-paced sprint. Lady Angelina (#2) spent too much time racing down on a dead rail in that Jan. 10 race at this level. She was also done no favors by her rider handling her conservatively in the early stages, as she tends to be better when she's involved in the pace. She ultimately got shuffled down to the inside in the stretch where she was never going to be able to rally. My top pick is Redwineandwhiskey (#3), who finished ahead of a few of these rivals when checking in fifth in that Jan. 10 affair. She deserves all the credit for that result since she might have had the toughest trip of all. She was compromised right from the start when she stumbled out of the gate, putting her out of position early. She then raced in heavy traffic along the rail and was the only horse to be making up ground late despite spending a significant amount of time down inside on the worst part of the track. She had significantly improved at Finger Lakes last fall for the underrated Linda Dixon, and she appears to have carried that form over to the NYRA circuit.

RACE 8

Spirit Dragon (#7) is making his first start off the claim for Brad Cox and Michael Dubb, and he probably doesn't even need to improve on his last effort to beat this field. There isn't that much speed signed on, especially considering that main pace rival Uncle Jim (#9) can't seem to get out of the gate anymore. The seven furlongs seems perfect for Spirit Dragon, who has the scope and length to suggest that the extra eighth will benefit him. He gets the nod over Analog Jones (#3), who did run well at this level last time when still in the barn of Jamie Ness. Linda Rice had initially entered him in a tougher spot a couple of weeks ago, but will go here instead. I'm mildly concerned that he could get outrun from an inside post, but he's obviously a contender in the current form. The horse who I believe will offer the best value is Complex Music (#10). He's racing first off the claim for Jimmy Ferraro, who is 8 for 39 (21%, $3.95 ROI) with this move on dirt over 5 years. He was competitive at this level two back after lunging at the start. I wish he had run a bit better last time, but he did find himself dueling between rivals through some quick fractions. He should get another aggressive ride here from Ruben Silvera, and it appeared that you wanted to be forward and out of the kickback on Wednesday. He has produced some of his best form at this 7-furlong distance.

RACE 9

I tweeted about this race earlier in the week, since it's one of the most competitive races I've encountered on the NYRA circuit going back over the last several months. You all know that I rarely set a morning line favorite as high as 5-1, but I just couldn't price anyone lower given how many horses rank as contenders in this wide open affair. That lukewarm favorite Shadow Surge (#7) is coming off a career-best speed figure, but he has to prove he can bring that Parx form back to the NYRA circuit. I'm skeptical, especially given how much speed is signed on here. Cool Andy (#1) got a perfect trip in his first start off the claim for Linda Rice, but I don't mind him turning back slightly and he seems like a logical contender. Gamebred (#10) is another horse who put in a career-best effort last time, and I think he merits respect coming off that solid runner-up effort behind Reynolds Channel. The Charlton Baker barn has really turned things around in the last few months, and this horse's form is indicative of the shift in that stable. He's drawn well outside and is proven at this 7-furlong distance. Timaeus (#12) is another who should benefit from an outside draw. I don't love the way he's finished off his last couple of races at this level, but he's gotten a freshening coming into this. He ran a race three back that makes him highly competitive here, he fits with the main players on TimeformUS Speed Figures, and he should fly under the radar in this wide open field. My top pick is Twohonestmischief (#6), who will benefit from any pace that develops. This gelding took 15 attempts to break his maiden, but he finally did so with a strong performance beating a highly regarded Kentucky shipper. He followed that up with another strong effort against winners last time. Vibrant Express controlled that race up front, and Twohonestmischief did well to close into second after getting steadied early and waiting for room on the far turn. Eric Cancel has to work out a trip this time, but he did ride him well in previous starts.

RACE 10

Alias (#10) is probably the horse to beat based on his prior form against tougher competition, but his form has been declining recently. The class relief will help, I really didn't like his last effort and am concerned that Linda Rice is just giving up on him. I have to consider Army Proud (#1) given that Wayne Potts's runners were performing prior to the winter break. This colt showed improved form in December and can get another piece of this if he shows up with a similar effort here. Yet the horse I really want to bet is Seeker's Hope (#9), who exits the same race as Alias. He finished two lengths behind that foe, but may have actually run the better race. Jan. 10 began that one-week period where we observed a dead rail on most days, and Seeker's Hope was the inside speed last time. He ran a lot better than it looks in that spot, and also hinted at improved form two back when chasing a fast pace that ultimately collapsed. He's drawn much better outside this time.