TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

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Strategies & Insights

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RACE 1

It's hard to look past the three outside runners in this opener, and the most reliable among them is Celestial Glaze (#4). His flaws are pretty obvious – he hasn't won a race since the summer of 2024, and comes into this off 14 consecutive losses. However, he is in great form right now, and is making his first start off the claim for a barn that is very capable with this move. He found a mile to be just a tad too far for him last time when he led into deep stretch and got nailed on the wire. This turnback should suit him. His two main rivals just have major questions to answer. I'm a Gambler (#5) is certainly good enough to win this race, but his dirt ability is unclear. His lone prior dirt attempt came against better a long time ago, and he didn't show much affinity for it, nor is he bred for it. There's a stronger case to be made for Treaty Obligation (#3), who gets needed class relief off a minor layoff. However, he is the first starter for Rudy Rodriguez since his HISA suspension has been lifted, and all of Rudy's runners this week missed a month of workouts from mid-December to mid-January. I'll take the wait-and-see approach with them for now.

RACE 2

Linda Rice sends out a pair of runners in this starter allowance for fillies and mares. The one likely to attract more support is Sheer Will (#3), who just missed at this level last time as the 9-5 favorite. She ran well against a decent field, making a wide bid to lead in upper stretch before getting run down by a stablemate in the final furlong. She has been in great form lately, but I do wonder if we've already seen her ceiling. She improved unexpectedly when she stopped the clock in very fast time beating claimers two back. Now that her form is so exposed, she's going to be a short price and I doubt she has further upside. I prefer Rice's other runner Always Practical (#2), who returns from a bit of a layoff following a victory against $50k conditioned claimers in September. While I generally don't love horses going to the sidelines following wins, this filly has been training pretty consistently during the time away. It would appear that she just had a serious of very minor issues, since she hasn't gone more than two weeks without registering a workout during this time away. Rice also has pretty strong statistics off this kind of break. She is 19 for 70 (27%, $2.03 ROI) off 90 to 180 day layoffs in dirt sprints at NYRA over the last 4 years. Always Practical had run better than it appears at Saratoga when contesting a pace that came apart on July 11 and then chasing the pace going too far out of the Wilson Chute. She put it all together last time against a field that has proven to be even stronger than it seemed at the time. The layoff should ensure a fair price. The other horse to consider is Vanilla (#6), who has won both prior dirt sprints. She got the job done off a layoff last time and may have room for further improvement here. She's the other horse I want to use, but I am mildly concerned that this distance may be too sharp for her, especially without much speed signed on.

RACE 3

Here's another race where a Rudy Rodriguez trained runner is at the center of the discussion. Baron of Sealand (#4) will probably beat this field if he runs back to his previous form. He was hardly disgraced against a tougher field on dirt last time. However, he's another horse who didn't work back for more than a month following that December start due to Rudy's suspension. I'll let him beat me at a short price. There is absolutely no speed in this 9-furlong affair, which might make Awesome Empire (#1) dangerous. The TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts that he's the fastest early, and he has occasionally gotten aggressive rides in the past. Gustavo Rodriguez is particularly dangerous of the claim in dirt routes. Adventurist (#6) is another who may be forward if he's ridden as aggressively as he was two back. His regression last time is a concern, but he is one of the few who clearly wants every bit of this 9-furlong distance. My top pick is Lou (#2), who has some questions to answer going this far, especially without any pace to set him up. However, I do think he's one of the best horses in the race, having consistently met slightly tougher fields at this level. He beat Baron of Sealand when they met in September, and he's held that form against better foes since. He rarely takes much money and should be a square price.

RACE 4

Fast and Frisky (#2) is obviously dangerous making her second start off the claim for Brad Cox and Sandy Goldfarb. She was in too tough against stakes company in her first start for these connections and now gets realistic class relief. I'm not way against her, but I do prefer main rival Sweetest Princess (#4). This mare didn't get the most comfortable trip when she, too, was overmatched in a stakes race last time out. She got sent away from the gate but was outrun to the lead and forced to steady while rating into the turn. She then encountered more traffic in upper stretch before fading going a distance that's too far for her anyway. Her big speed figure two back was flattered by a rail bias, but that was also the only race where she had a fair chance since she's been claimed by Linda Rice. She can rebound dropping in class here.

RACE 5

I went fairly logical in this one as well. Sparkling Mama (#1) is probably the horse to beat after she improved significantly stretching out to this distance last time. She was setting a pretty honest pace and did well to battle on for second behind a superior winner. She now gets Lasix and isn't catching the toughest field for the level. I just slightly prefer main rival Hot Gossip (#7), who ran a race that could win here in her final start for the Brad Cox barn at Churchill last fall. She regressed off the claim for Joe Sharp last time, but she may not have handled synthetic, and she also was conservatively ridden late after going wide on the turns. She figures to rebound getting back on dirt.

RACE 6

Vino Frizzante (#4) is a standout based on her Florida form. She was facing better rivals at the maiden special weight level for the early part of her career, and ran a couple of races last winter at Gulfstream that would easily beat this field, including her maiden score going this distance. I think you just have to be a little concerned about how poorly she ran off the layoff last time, and the fact that she's now dropping in class off the claim for Linda Rice. She isn't catching a tough field for this level, but she's going to be a very short price for a horse with major questions to answer. The only viable alternative that I would want to bet against her is La Gran Artesana (#1). This filly has only run well at Finger Lakes, so she clearly has some things to prove on the NYRA circuit. Yet she was badly overmatched in her first start here last time, facing an open allowance field. She was predictably outrun every step of the way, with her rider doing her no favors by losing so much ground. She has more early speed than that, and figures to show it from the rail here. Seven furlongs seems like an ideal distance, and it appears that she's dropping to the right level this time.

RACE 7

Once again, I was fairly chalky in this spot. The Toy Cannon (#6) is the horse to beat making his first start off the claim for Brad Cox following a blowout maiden score last time. However, Cox is getting this horse from Chad Summers, whose barn has been on fire lately in New York, so I wonder how much he can improve. This horse's biggest advantage is his early speed, since no one in this race seems fast enough to go with him early. I just slightly prefer his main rival Sculcos Folly (#1), who has really improved in his recent starts at Laurel. He ran even better than the 5-length winning margin would suggest when he beat claimers two back, since he overcame a very rough start. Then last time he showed the versatility to rate off dueling leaders before closing in late. He's coming back on short rest, but I like that Dutrow is striking while the iron is hot, a move that's worked for him in the past.

RACE 8

With the Angels (#5) is going to be a handful if she runs back to her Garland of Roses effort, where she had to settle for second behind a loose-on-the-lead winner. There were some talented rivals behind her that day, and she earned the best speed figure of her career to date. Even that number doesn't exactly make her a standout in this field, but you have to respect her consistency and versatility. She's the horse to beat, and there is more speed to set up her late run this time. I just don't think she has that much of a talented edge on her main rival Cupid's Heart (#8). This 7-year-old mare doesn't have as much of an affinity for winning races, having lost 9 in a row on the way into this. However, she has finally figured out how to get out of the starting gate after breaking slowly for much of her career. She's broken from the gate with the field twice in a row now, but both of those races were going a mile. I think she's better at shorter trips, and now she gets to turn back with an advantageous outside post. I've never been her biggest supporter, but I think this could be the right time to bet her. The other horse I considered is Twirling Beauty (#9), who is really the only one I want from that common Dec. 26 race. She was pressing the winner through some honest fractions before fading. She may be set for better in her third start for the Duggan barn.