TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

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Strategies & Insights

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RACE 1

Unfortunately, Full Moon Madness (#2) will scratch from this race as his connections announced that he came down with a temperature. Victory Way (#5) is the obvious alternative and will likely inherit favoritism now. He was wide against a rail bias in his Toboggan loss on Feb. 6. He's probably better than that result, but I did think his prior win in December was accomplished against a weaker field than this. I want to give El Grande O (#1) one more chance. He's another who was chasing outside against the rail bias in his last start. He also didn't get a great trip when finishing fourth in the Elite Power, as he was shuffled back and stuck on the rail. He showed he can win at this level in October, and I'm hoping he can rebound to that form as he's reunited with Flavien Prat.

RACE 2

Always Angels (#3) is the one to beat as she drops in class after facing much tougher allowance optional claiming foes last time. While she won going a mile two back, she's probably better off at shorter distances so this turnback to 7 furlongs should suit her. I'm not against her, but I do think both Rick Dutrow runners are intriguing. Beira (#2) should take more money with Prat aboard, but I wonder if she'll need this start off a layoff. She's in for the waiver here, and her overall form isn't as compelling as some others. I think Proud Foot (#1) is the better horse between the two. I know she tailed off a bit in the second half of 2025, but she ran better than it looks when last seen in December. She got shuffled on the far turn of that race and actually finished well. She had been a vet scratch in March, so she's been ready to run for a while. Manny Franco tends to get more live mounts for this barn than Prat.

RACE 3

I'm not trying to beat Devils Arrow (#3). She's stepping up in class, but she's supposed to play out as the main speed. She hasn't yet won going two turns, but this daughter of Arrogate is supposed to appreciate the added distance. She showed stamina to pull clear last time after stalking 2-wide against the rail bias early. Grace Reformed (#2) may step forward second off the layoff, but she could be at a pace disadvantage if no one goes with the favorite.

RACE 4

Horses like Linda Rice trainees Noguchi (#2) and Good Cop (#4) just don't do much for me. They've both had their chances to win at this level and it feels like we've already seen the best they have to offer. The former Linda Rice runner Cat Fast (#7) goes first off the claim for Horacio De Paz, but I can't say that I love this horse's recent efforts. He lacks speed and I'm not sure this is a race where you want to be closing from well back. I'll instead try the 3-year-old Always Packen (#8). He looks slow at first glance, but I think his form is better than the results suggest. He actually ran pretty well chasing wide against the rail bias on Feb. 11. Then last time he was dueling between horses before fading. That race has come up pretty live with the winner coming back to defeat tougher foes next time. There are some indictors in his replays to suggest more ground will work for him.

RACE 5

Irish Jackson (#4) figures to be the favorite once again after she was overbet off the layoff last time. She obviously fits well at this level and may do better with that start under her belt. I'm just not sure that she really wants to go a mile. I have similar questions about Undergrad (#3), who may take some money. However, there's rain in the forecast, and she didn't seem to handle a wet track last time. Heavenly Light (#5) is a solid option who obviously gets the distance. She's moving up in class slightly, but her form fits well here. The only drawback is that she's claimed away from Brad Cox. I instead want to bet Tahila (#6) at a better price. I know she looks a little slower than some of the main rivals, but she's another who has no problem getting a mile. She ran well to break her maiden two back, beating the track bias. Then last time she didn't get the best ride, making an early move after an awkward break. She was finishing better than the running line might suggest through the final furlong. This could also be a race with a fair pace, and she would appreciate that.

RACE 6

I've never been the biggest fan of New York Scrappy (#6), especially as a dirt horse. However, he does seem to fit pretty well against this bunch. There isn't much speed signed on here, and he may be in position to control the pace on the front end. Main rival Oath of Omerta (#7) should be stalking him early, and he can certainly win if running as well as he did last time. I just don't know if I fully trust him to put top races back to back given his prior inconsistency. I don't want to make too strong a push for my top pick Sociably Johnny (#2), since he's obviously a bit of a reach in this spot. He's just too slow on paper and is a 3-year-old stepping up against older horses. However, he did stay on decently against a tough field in January and I don't care about the turf race last time. Derek Ryan has good stats going turf to dirt, and has a history of getting horses to outrun their odds on the NYRA circuit.

RACE 7

Between the top two finishers from that Mar. 6 race at this level, I prefer Baron of Sealand (#2) to Shadow Dragon (#6). The latter couldn't have gotten a softer trip in victory whereas Baron of Sealand had to weave his way through traffic. Neither should mind this slight turnback to a mile, and they're the two horses to beat. I expect Three B's (#5) to run better here after he got run off his feet sprinting last time. He's better at a mile, and was wide against the rail bias when he tried this level on Feb. 11. I'm using him, but my top pick is Alan Turing (#7). He finished a close fourth behind the two favorites last time, but performed pretty well considering that it was his first start off a brief layoff with just a couple of workouts showing. Nine furlongs is also stretching his stamina past its limit, and he might benefit most from this turnback to a one-turn mile.

RACE 8

There are many questions to be answered in this conditioned claimer that lacks a standout. A horse like St. Brigid's Cross (#1) figures to take money by default given her strong connections, but she's been pretty disappointing since the Brad Cox claim. She, like others, is dropping in class to the lowest level of their careers. That also applies to Rare Society (#3), who drops in for a tag for the first time. There is some rain in the forecast for Thursday, and she didn't appear to love a wet track last time. Yet she also didn't get the right trip, spending too much time on a dead rail. She can rebound here. I'm Kidding (#6) looks like the main speed, but finishing off her races has been a problem this winter. She's another dropping out of a series of allowance races. Early pressure could come from the rail horse as well as Oklahoma Smoke (#4), who returns from a layoff dating back to late 2024. She won her only start, but the time away coupled with the drop in class make her untrustworthy. The horse I want to bet is Mo Attitude (#5). She competed at slightly cheaper levels than this when she made a couple of starts on this circuit in January and February. She didn't run that well in her first local start, but it was just her second appearance following a layoff. She fared better two back when she got up for second despite chasing wide against a rail bias. She returned to Parx last time and put forth one of her best efforts to date, chasing home a runaway winner in a tougher spot than this. If she brings that form back to New York she figures to be a handful.