TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

This is a tougher field than the thin group Grace and Grit (#4) defeated last month, but it was still encouraging to see her get back to her best form following a sale and trainer switch to Amelia Green. She overcame getting rank early and then squeezing through a tight opening at the quarter pole. She is notoriously difficult to ride, and Jaime Rodriguez should benefit from that experience aboard her. Likely favorite Snide (#1) has earned the two highest figs in the field, and had a legitimate excuse last out when wide against a rail bias. She's a candidate to bounce back here, and her early speed should ensure a good trip. Rice's other runner Vino Frizzante (#5) made an early backstretch move into an honest pace before tiring last time; though, didn't like the way she was veering out in the lane.

RACE 2

No one is particularly trustworthy in this wide open conditioned claimer, but at least Toga d'Oro (#1) has had the excuse of racing over his head ever since breaking his maiden last year. He finally drops to a realistic level while also circling back to his original trainer Rick Dutrow. His form looks pretty ugly, but he was legitimately eased midway through two of his last 3 starts, and still earned competitive figs in the surrounding races. Sir Kartrite (#6) threw in a clunker as the favorite last time. Perhaps he was a little too close to a pace that melted down, but he was still pretty disappointing. His prior form obviously makes him a major player. Thirteen G's (#3) had a legitimate excuse two back when making a mess of the start and getting eased, then caught a speed-biased track last time. He gets class relief, but I would prefer to see him going longer given how sluggish he's been early.

RACE 3

Though it's been a minute since she's won a race, Edistrudis (#3) is probably getting the class relief that she needs. She has faced tougher in both local starts since returning from Oaklawn, and has actually run well in 3 of her 4 NYRA outings. She faded last time, but that was a particularly deep field on the Starter Championship card. She was also too aggressively ridden and should revert to her preferred stalk-and-pounce tactics here. I've never been the biggest fan of Elegant (#6), but must admit she fits well at this level as Linda Rice picks out a softer spot for her. She didn't even run that badly last time considering she failed to make the lead. Principia (#4) has efforts in her past that would beat this group, but hard to trust her to get back to them after spending a year on the sidelines.

RACE 4

Diamond Life (#1) may look slower than a few main rivals, but he primarily shows 2-year-old form. He had little chance in his first couple of starts when chasing home future stakes winners Arctic Beast and Bravaro, then ran well for a tag. He was caught wide against a rail bias when he returned over the winter, and now drops all the way to the bottom. The addition of blinkers should hone his early speed, and I'm expecting a career-best effort. Lough Currane (#5) was also against a bias last time when glued to a dead rail on Jan. 11. He has a tendency to run in stops and starts, and the 3-month break into this raises some questions. Yet he's capable on his best day and should be a decent price. Gualillo (#3) would have been odds-on against this field a couple months ago, but his form has really fallen apart lately, and this further drop doesn't inspire confidence. The same goes for Solutions (#7), whose connections are also giving up on a once promising runner.

RACE 5

This second division of the split fourth race came up slightly weaker. I wasn't thrilled with those who have already competed at the level, so will instead give a shot to the 3-year-old dropper Charlie Charmer (#4). He's been well-beaten in both starts, but he was wide against a rail bias on debut and then had a bit of trip when taken up and shuffled back early last time. He should do better here, especially given the class relief. Killybegs Kid (#2) at least exits a career-best effort. It did come in the mud, but I don't want to nitpick too much in this field. Generally I just didn't want the horses from the eyesore of a Mar. 15 race won by Monte Avi. Winegold (#5) ran the second-best race there, and is relatively unexposed sprinting. So Spirited (#6) is also second off a layoff, but hung badly in that same race.

RACE 6

I couldn't look past the two logical favorites in this starter allowance. Wonder Mist (#7) might have a little more upside as he returns to dirt now that Wesley Ward has checked off all the surface and distance boxes. He beat a pretty good one in Pretty Boy Miah, who broke his maiden with an 89 Beyer a couple of starts later. He then ran better than it looks at Turfway after fighting restraint early, but the turnback figures to benefit him. Tiger Rocket (#5) proved his breakout maiden score was no fluke when holding his own against a much tougher field in the Jimmy Winkfield. He is more realistically spotted for his second start out of the Rice barn. First Blessing (#2) benefited from a good trip when he earned his diploma last time, but he's been steadily improving and can get a piece of this.

RACE 7

Perhaps Marelow (#7) won't get the respect she deserves as a Parx shipper, but she owns the best form in this race and goes out for a capable barn. She's sprinted recently, but her prior route form suggests that she's just as proficient going longer. This filly finished strongly two back, and last time hit the wire with Mo Attitude, who returned to win at Aqueduct last week with a 64 Beyer. Purpose (#2) gets the most class relief of anyone as she drops out of a series of allowance races, but it's been a while since she's put forth a competitive effort. She obviously fits here, but I wasn't interesting in taking too a short price on her. Scarlet's Dream (#1) has picked up checks in a few starts this winter, but hasn't gotten back to her best form from last year. She needs to do better to win here.

RACE 8

Chad Brown's first time starter Bishop Booming (#6) is an intriguing newcomer, but it's no small feat debuting over a mile on dirt. I can understand why he's been targeted at a dirt route, as he appeared to have a huge stride in his 10 1/5 OBS April workout last year. It's taken him a while to get to the races, but Yaupon is a 19% debut sire and there's a ton of stamina on his dam's side. I had some interest in Chad Brown's other runner Resolute Will (#7) when he made his debut at Tampa off some encouraging workouts, but he just looked lost out there. He was off slowly and then refused to change leads while losing focus in the lane. He is better than that, and has trained well since then. This horse is bred to stretch out, being out of multiple stakes-winning router Nonna Madeline. Chad Brown is also 35 for 104 (34%, $2.34 ROI) with 3-year-old maiden second time starters in dirt routes over 5 years. The more experienced Dr. Sinatra (#2) has failed to progress from an encouraging debut, but may encounter a softer pace up front this time.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

Between the two likely favorites in the opener I much prefer Brightline Bullet (#4), who showed promise while racing greenly throughout on debut at Monmouth last summer. He was off slowly, made a big far turn move, but then thwarted himself by hanging on his left lead. He looked like a tank training in Florida over the winter despite returning as a new gelding, and should win if he can get it together mentally. Frostelle (#6) was wide against the rail bias two back, and then didn't get an ideal trip when shuffled inside on the turn last time. He can do better here, but lacks the upside of some others. Onepac (#2) took no money on debut last summer, flashing speed before fading. That was a tough spot for the level, and now he returns with a pretty encouraging worktab for a capable layoff barn. My primary take is that I want to beat Draft Riots (#3), whose efforts last year did little for me.

RACE 2

This race might be more competitive than it seems at first glance with a potentially vulnerable favorite. Gunner Bay (#2)is a form standout as he drops down, but Mike Miceli is just 2 for 26 (8%, $0.26 ROI) with horses dropping in claiming price by 50% or more over the last 5 years. I'm not sure what to expect after he was vanned off last time, and he didn't run poorly enough to justify this drop back down to the $20k level. In shopping for alternatives, I landed on Quiet Wisdom (#3), who obviously has his flaws. It's worth acknowledging that the barn has been cold lately, though Edgard Zayas picking up the mount is a good sign. He actually ran pretty well against a tough field two back, and last time was unwisely sent forward to duel in a pace that fell apart. He's better than that and will be a price here. Register (#7) is another who got cooked chasing an honest pace last time; should encounter a more favorable scenario here, and has races in his past that will beat these.

RACE 3

This didn't come together as the strongest MSW field, so I'm willing to try 4YO first time starter Karley B (#1) in her belated career debut. She had been entered to run in Jan. 2025 and got scratched with an issue. It's taken her a long time to get back into the entry box, but she appears to be training well. Girvin is an excellent debut sire, and she's a half-sister to stakes-placed Combat Mission. Find Your Path (#5) debuted in a large field on debut where she showed decent speed to chase the leaders before getting swarmed by rivals at the quarter pole. She should improve second time out for a barn that generally does better after a start. Tuthilltown (#3) ran her best race on turf last year, so I wonder if this is a prep for a return to that surface. Her dirt efforts weren't bad, but didn't do enough for me to justify what's likely to be a short price.

RACE 4

I couldn't get too creative here. Pulling Threads (#7) has faced tougher rivals in open maiden special weight events, and ran well enough each time to beat most fields at this level. I thought she got a good education on debut, but questioned the stretch-out to a mile last time. She ultimately didn't get the distance, but was hardly disgraced losing by less than 4 lengths. She should be set for a more forward as she cuts back and drops in for a high-priced tag. Ubique (#3) is clearly the main rival shipping up from Florida. She was apparently a private purchase out of her debut, a surprising 38-1 runner-up effort. She arguably should have won given her poor start and some trouble late, and that form has been flattered by runbacks. I wish I could have found a reason to upgrade Majorsdreamcometru (#6), who showed some hints of ability in her debut effort, but the regression last time was discouraging.

RACE 5

I had some interest in both Fernando Abreu claims, ultimately giving preference to the bigger price Brave Bear (#2). This horse's recent form doesn't represent his ability, as he was in over his head at the starter allowance level two and three back. Then last time he proved he wants no part of sprinting. He finally stretches back out to the right distance at an appropriate level, and should also be able to attain his preferred forward position here. The horse to beat is arguably High Tide (#7), who is supposed to move forward from his return last time. He ranged up like a winner at the quarter pole and just got tired in his first start in 9 months. He's dangerous if fitter now. The other Abreu claim Secured Landing (#3) was picked up from Jamie Ness, making it a little harder to project improvement. However, he did battle on gamely after contesting the pace against a tough field for the level last time.

RACE 6

Kavanaugh (#2) is obviously the horse to beat after racing competitively against starter allowance foes last time. It wasn't the toughest field for that level, but he still earned the best TimeformUS Speed Figure of his career. The only legitimate knock against him is that he did seem to improve going two turns, and I wonder if he'll maintain that form turning back to a one-turn mile here. Lotsa Trouble (#6) has gained some newfound consistency lately, but he's always at the mercy of pace and there isn't a ton of speed in here. I want to bet Remi's Moon (#3), who makes his first start off the claim for Rick Dutrow. He must prove he can get a mile, but he didn't get the right trip the last time he tried this distance, getting involved in a deceptively quick pace on Jan. 1. He subsequently overcame a speed bias to win on Jan. 18 before regressing for different connections last time. He's since been picked up by this dangerous barn that does excellent work off the claim. I can also appreciate the steady worktab since this acquisition, suggesting that he's done well for the new connections.

RACE 7

I'm not trying to beat Best Impression (#7), who probably should have won off the claim for these connections last time. She attempted to split horses at the quarter pole but ran out of room and was forced to alter course, getting through too late. That was a tougher spot than this, and she'll win if she merely holds that form. Her only poor effort over her last 5 starts came when she was against a rail bias on Feb. 13, so she's more trustworthy than she looks. She's Cool (#2) didn't run so well in one of those Starter Championship events last time, but her prior form had been solid, and she's dropping back down to an appropriate level. There is pace in this race, and Brooklyn Dantz (#5) feels like the type that could pick up pieces at a price. Excluding the allowance tries, she's been pretty effective over her last 3 claiming starts.