TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

Many handicappers will lean towards Doc Sullivan (#4) in this stallion series stakes opener since he's been more proficient at this 7-furlong distance than his main rival. However, I don't think the gap in sprinting ability between these two is nearly as wide as the result of the John Morrissey would suggest. Bank Frenzy (#2) got away to a poor start that day and had to rush up along the inside while never in a comfortable position over a muddy track. He's better than that, and asserted his class when holding off Doc Sullivan in the Empire Classic last time. I'm not someone who believes that Doc Sullivan is compromised at 9 furlongs, so I'm not expecting some dramatic form reversal as they both cut back in distance. They're clearly the two horses to beat, and the proven winning spirit of Bank Frenzy forces me to give him the slight edge. General Banker (#3) is mildly intriguing as an alternative, sine he badly needed a freshening after a year of constant racing. He's run well fresh before, but I'm not sure that even his best effort is quite good enough to win at this level.

RACE 2

Amundson (#6) has to be considered the horse to beat as he nears the end of his tenure at NYRA with his 10-year-old birthday approaching. He switches into the barn of Chad Summers, who is just 2 for 42 (5%, $0.34 ROI) first off a trainer switch over the last 5 years. Yet I don't want to put too much stock in that stat, since this horse is so consistent, and has proven that he belongs at this level. I have some more questions about the other potential speeds in this race. Dot's Dollar (#2) ran poorly last time but should appreciate cutting back to 6 furlongs. Divine Leader (#3) would be tough if able to repeat his last effort, but I'm not sure what to make of the layoff and use of the waiver in his return for a new barn. I prefer Laughing Boy (#4), who has to prove he can sprint going this short, having never done it successful before. Yet his last race at 7 furlongs is a bit better than it looks, since he got a pretty passive ride from Dylan Davis, rated from the inside while taking plenty of kickback. He traveled willingly behind an honest pace and was finishing best of all through traffic at the end. Perhaps he can improve on that result in his second start off the claim for Mike Miceli.

RACE 3

I have little insight to offer here. I couldn't find a good reason to try beating Liberty's Advance (#7). She had run well in her sprint debut at Finger Lakes, finishing with interest behind a talented rival. She was never beating Letmecounttheways in a race dominated up front last time. While she does have pedigree to get that distance, stretching all the way out to a mile in just her second start was asking a lot. Cutting back to 6 furlongs makes sense at this stage of her career. The first time starters didn't do enough for me. Kaz Farm Girl (#2) doesn't have much pedigree, but shows some decent works and these connections can win on debut. Braverthanubelieve (#9) also goes out for a decent debut barn with some sprint pedigree. Neither one is convincing enough to upgrade above the favorite.

RACE 4

This is another race where I couldn't look beyond the favorite. Sunday Girl (#7) held her own against a much tougher field than this last time out, and appears to be back in top form after she got derailed this summer. I suppose the upgrade to Flavien Prat is appealing to some, but she's a straightforward horse to ride who has generally gotten good trips. I don't think Flavien needs to do anything special to guide this heavy favorite to the winner's circle. The alternatives just don't do much for me, and the outside post should keep the favorite out of trouble.

RACE 5

Here we have another Katie Davis to Flavien Prat rider switch, and that's likely to drive down the price on Wamo (#11), who might have been the horse to beat regardless. The only thing Katie did wrong last time was using a left-handed crop just before the wire, which caused the interference and disqualification. He's drawn well outside and his improved tactical speed should put him in an advantageous position, but I don't view him as some standout in this field. Party in the Army (#2) seems like an obvious rival after twice hitting the board in stakes at Finger Lakes. However, he broke very poorly last time and that's a concern as he breaks from the inside with blinkers now going on. I prefer the other Jeremiah Englehart trainee Mission Critical (#3), who figures to be a much better price. This colt ran into a tough field on debut, finishing well behind his stablemate. He didn't take any money that day and surely needed the start. Another second time starter that should offer even greater price appeal is Pure Mischief (#1). Like the Englehart runner, this colt took no money on debut, going off at 81-1 against an extremely tough maiden field. While he lost by over 10 lengths, I thought his performance was actually quite encouraging. He was kept very wide after breaking from post 12, losing significant ground to avoid kickback on the far turn. Yet keeping him out in the clear turned out to be unnecessary, as he showed no fear rallying behind a wall of horses in the stretch. He was finishing best of all among those outside the trifecta, and it should be noted that the top 3 finishers in that maiden race also completed the trifecta in next month's Sleepy Hollow. I know this is a low-profile barn, but the horse drew much better this time and has a right to improve significantly with that experience under his belt.

RACE 6

This two-year-old maiden special weight features just three horses with experience, all of which rate as contenders. Hedge Ratio (#1) might go favored given the presence of Flavien Prat, who has been a magnet for wagering support in recent weeks at Aqueduct. This horse did seem to appreciate the switch to dirt last time after putting in a dull effort in his debut on grass. I'm just a little confused by this subsequent turnback in distance, since this colt is bred to go longer. The rail draw could complicate his trip, since he doesn't seem quick enough to get forward position. Dark Assault (#10)possesses superior tactical speed and drew best of all in the outside slot with a long run to the first turn. He just lacks the upside of the other two experienced options. He's already gotten three races under his belt and his progression seemed to stall last time when he faded to finish third in a similar spot. I prefer Our Magical Moon (#8), who returns from a brief freshening to make his first start since the summer at Saratoga. He switched to dirt in his second start and got involved in a fast pace that ultimately came apart. The fractions of that race are color-coded red in TimeformUS, and his pace-upgraded 94 TimeformUS Speed Figure puts him right in line with the two favorites even though his Beyers are a bit lower. Three horses who were within 3 1/2 lengths of that pace at the half-mile have run back, and they have each improved their TimeformUS Speed Figures by 13, 25, and 26 points. I'll focus my wagers on the Casse runner, and will try to spice things up by including a couple of first time starters. Complex Charlie (#3) is bred to be a talented sprinter as a half-brother to stakes winner Firecrow and stakes-placed National Identity, and Carlos Martin can win with a first time starter. Feroce (#4) goes out for underrated two-year-old trainer Chad Summers and looked pretty quick working 10-flat at OBS June earlier this year.

RACE 7

With this race coming off the turf, Poca Mucha (#11) becomes the obvious horse to beat. If she can get back to that off the turf De La Rose performance from 2024, she's going to crush this field. She probably isn't in quite as strong form at this stage of her career, but it's not like that Saratoga victory was the only time she handled dirt. She's going to be tough to handle, but I do think that Trail of Gold (#4) is worth a look staying in on the dirt. This filly has obviously improved as a 3-year-old, and it's possible that her apparent preference for turf is actually just representative of her overall progression as a racehorse. She ran some decent dirt races as a 2-year-old, including when just missing third in the Maid of the Mist over a year ago. She handles distance and has plenty of pedigree to be just as good on dirt as she is on turf. She also drew better than her main rivals in this spot. 

RACE 8

This is another race where I couldn't get past the logical options. Linda Rice appears to hold a pretty strong hand. I suppose Ranger Battalion (#7) is the more reliable of her two runners since he has proven form at this level. He is turning back slightly in distance but that shouldn't be much of a concern. He ran especially well last time when making the first move to take over at mid-stretch in a race that completely fell apart in the final furlong. I just think there's more upside with Linda's other horse Coffee Talk (#9). He will surely beat this field if he runs back to the 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure and 94 Beyer that he earned breaking his maiden at Keeneland. I know that he was with David Jacobson for that start, but he only spent one race in that stable so I'm not viewing him as damaged goods. This horse always showed potential for Brad Cox, and may have been mismanaged targeting route races. He's bred to go shorter if you dig into his female family, since his dam is a half-sister to G1-winning sprinter Better Lucky and turf sprint stakes winner Final Frontier. It also doesn't hurt that Linda Rice is 13 for 37 (35%, $3.02 ROI) first off the claim with last-out maiden winners on dirt, and 6 for 15 (40%, $3.83 ROI) moving those horses up into allowance company over the last 5 years. The other ex-Jacobson runner Remi's Moon (#1) is also mildly interesting, since he didn't get the best ride last time at Keeneland. I just have greater concern that he may lack upside coming out of that barn.

RACE 9

I don't enjoy defaulting to horses like Knightsbridge (#2) at short prices, but it's hard to find appealing alternatives in this race. Bill Mott appears to have found a pretty soft spot for him to make his return, and the Pace Projector indicates that he's quick enough to control this field from the front end. It's obviously a concern that this son of Nyquist can't seem to stay on the racetrack, needing layoffs in between each of his starts. However, he does appear to be training well for this return, even if I doubt the veracity of that 57 4/5 gate work at Saratoga earlier this month. (It's nearly impossible to go that fast in an Oklahoma gate drill.) The only alternative that I even considered is Twenty Four Mamba (#3), who was probably best in defeat when he last tried this distance in August at Saratoga. However, that came at a lower level, and it's unclear that he's still in that kind of form for the new barn.

RACE 10

There's barely any dirt form to consider in this off the turf maiden speical weight. Unmiztaken (#9) will take money based on her encouraging turf debut, but her pedigree is all turf. There's also plenty of speed in this race to push her on the front end. Copper Caduceus (#3) is another to consider. Even though she's by War Dancer, her full-sibling Barrage did handle dirt in his only attempt over it despite being a turf specialist. Joyful Dancer (#4) is another daughter of War Dancer, but she has even more dirt pedigree on the dam's side. She showed speed and faded in a race where the pace collapsed last time, and may fare better on dirt. I'll upgrade So Tru (#2) now that this race is off the turf. This filly has plenty of dirt pedigree, and seemed like a horse who just badly needed her debut on the grass rather than being meant for that surface. John Terranova is 6 for 24 (25%, $2.89 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years. She puts blinkers on and may be able to pick up some pieces if this comes apart. 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

There obviously has to be some concern about the layoff for likely favorite Munnings Express (#4), but she will be awfully tough for this field to beat if she returns at anything close to top form. She needed a start when she launched her career back in April, improving significantly second time out. I suppose that generates some uncertainty about her ability to run well fresh, but Linda Rice is 7 for 25 (28%, $2.26 ROI) off 120-240-day layoffs in dirt sprint allowance races at Aqueduct over 5 years. There are some alternatives to consider, but none of them have the high ceiling of the favorite. Carol T (#7) has run well off a layoff in the past, and may appreciate getting some pace ahead of her. I could key her underneath and potentially upgrade her if she's a particularly generous price. Central to Success (#1) showed promise as a 2-year-old but failed to step forward in her return from a layoff at Parx. Perhaps she can do better with that start under her belt.

RACE 2

There is very little form to grasp in this maiden claimer. Salute to Service (#4) is likely to take money by default as the lone first time starter in a field of rivals who have already disappointed. She goes out for George Weaver and will be ridden by Flavien Prat, but those popular connections will also ensure that she's overbet. Starship Lizzy (#3) appears to be the most logical alternative as she drops again after competing in tougher spots. She has shown good tactical speed and now adds blinkers. I slightly prefer the upside of second time starter Taparoo (#6), who was uncompetitive finishing behind Starship Lizzy on debut. However, Taparoo was pretty green that day, getting steadied and squeezed back at the start before racing wide. She seems like a candidate to do better in her second start going out for dangerous connections.

RACE 3

New York Scrappy (#8) could take money based on turf speed figures and the presence of Flavien Prat, but I have serious reservations about his dirt ability. I much prefer Fiddling Felix (#3) among the logical contenders. I know he's had his chances, but he has generally faced better company than he meets here. That includes his last race when he caught an unusually deep field for this $50k level. This is subtle but significant class relief for him. Turning back slightly to 7 furlongs should suit him, and I think he is much the horse to beat. I also like Cat Fast (#7) cutting back, though he still has some things to prove stepping up in class. This is typically a move to respect for Linda Rice, whose barn has been on a roll lately. I liked the way this guy rated and finished last time, something we hadn't seen from him in any of his prior starts. I'll also use second time starter Mr R T (#6), who also returns from a layoff. He chased a superior field on debut at Saratoga back in June, and now returns in a much more logical spot. This barn has sprung some surprises with maidens over the past few seasons, especially when they're racing on Lasix for the first time. I'm not convinced he's really a dirt horse since his pedigree leans grass, but he does figure to improve here.

RACE 4

If this race stays on turf, I'm not trying to beat Oversubscribed (#5) in her return from a layoff. You generally don't have to worry about Chad Brown runners' fitness even off layoffs of this length, and she's just not facing any rivals that appear to be in her league.

RACE 5

There figures to be plenty of attention focused on first time starter Ottinho (#6), a half-brother to Horse of the Year and top sire Gun Runner and a full-brother to graded stakes winner Pretty Ana. A couple of his workouts match Hadrian's Wall, who finished a good third in his recent debut with an 80 Beyer. It appears that Chad Brown has some talented route-meant two-year-olds that he's finally unveiling this fall, and it wouldn't be a surprise if this was one of them. I just don't need a horse debuting at a mile at a short price. Among the alternatives with experience, I'm interested in both horses coming out of the Epic Summer maiden race. Fightforallegiance (#4) is more immediately appealing as a Linda Rice second time starter. He's bred to be more of a sprinter, but he did stay on well late in the debut despite lugging in through the stretch. He was green that day, and should be more professional this time. Out of that race, I'm more inclined to bet Gulfy (#7), who hit the wire with that foe last time. This horse got a wide trip and did little running in his turf debut, but he's clearly more of a dirt horse. He was off slowly last time and had to be used to rush up into a stalking position inside. He struggled to hold that position on the turn but never gave up, running on well through the wire despite getting put in tight quarters late. He looks like one that wants the mile on dirt, and he can attain more forward position with a better break.

RACE 6

Likely favorite Where's Your Boom (#10) appears to be the most likely winner as he stretches out for his second career start. He faced a decent field on debut sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs and showed some likeable attributes in that unveiling. He moved up willingly outside and stayed on resolutely through the stretch behind a winner who wasn't stopping. What was most encouraging about that performance was actually the gallop-out, since he caught the winner and ran away from the others past the wire. He's bred to handle added ground, and it appears that John Ortiz is sending out some live runners this week at Aqueduct. Other second time starters to consider include Tiger Rocket (#3) and Mo Spice (#4), who both drop out of maiden special weight races at Saratoga. The former faced a very tough field on debut, though I wish he had shown a little more ability that day. Mo Space has pedigree to handle this surface switch and just got run off his feet first time out. They're both in for the $75k tag, whereas Where's Your Boom is not. The only other horse I want to consider is first time starter Treadstone (#5), who also is protected by the auction condition of this race. He's obviously bred to route, by Tapit out of a dam who has produced a UAE Oaks winner. Danny Gargan tends to have his newcomers well prepared, and this one is spotted realistically.

RACE 7

The two favorites both make sense in this $50k conditioned claimer. Shadow Surge (#6) is clearly the one to beat based on his two efforts since returning from a lengthy layoff. His maiden win was highly rated by TimeformUS, and those figures have him regressing slightly off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci last time. I still thought he fought on gamely in that first attempt against winners, and the subsequent rise in class is a vote of confidence. Main rival Salming (#2) couldn't have been much more visually impressive when he broke his maiden at Laurel. He was full of run while held up in behind traffic on the turn and exploded once given daylight in the stretch. He wasn't beating a strong field that day, but he's trying winners at an appropriate level. He just needs some pace to develop. I'll try to beat this pair with a bigger price. Hot Spun (#3) has been overmatched at the starter allowance level recently, but he's getting some subtle class relief as he drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. He did not get a comfortable trip last time when shuffled back along the rail heading to the half-mile pole. He then was always in tight racing inside, but still finished with some interest in the last furlong. He's better than that, and he had previously held his own against some stronger rivals than the ones he meets here.

RACE 8

We'll see if this race can possibly stay on the turf after they took Saturday's grass races off. It would be a shame to lose this stakes, since it came up an even stronger field when it was redrawn from last week. Fast Market (#1) has significantly improved since stretching back out and removing blinkers. She validated her impressive maiden score with a strong second to Ready for Candy in the Sands Point. Cutting back a bit should only help her, but she will be a much shorter price now that she picks up Flavien Prat. I prefer Peak Hype (#8). She has improved with every start, and hasn't gotten ideal trips on a few occasions. That was the case two back when she was steadied early and stuck behind a slow pace. Then last time she never got to save any ground, launching a wide far turn run that she sustained all the way through the wire. I also want to use the new face Sweet Treasure (#6), who wasn't originally in this race last week. She got a terrible trip when she returned from a layoff two back, stuck wide while pulling all the way. Her other three races are all strong, and she doesn't appear to be overmatched by this field.

RACE 9

I don't fully trust the likely favorite in this finale. Apalta (#6) is dropping down to the lowest level of his career, as the connections are clearly giving up on this $525k yearling purchase. If he runs back to any of his prior dirt races he could win here, but I don't like how he's been regressing from start to start. Last time he even seemed to lose interest early in the race, and I don't want a horse like this if he can't get forward in the early stages. The logical alternative is Noguchi (#2), who stretches out for Linda Rice. I'm not sure that 9 furlongs will be his ideal distance, but he does at least have the tactical speed to get out front early. Linda Rice seems to have a knack for getting horses like this to deliver in these spots. My top pick is Grand Commander (#3), who deserves another chance now that he's making his second start off a layoff. He did show talent early in his career before quickly losing that form. Even though it looks like he hasn't been successful stretching out, I actually want this horse going longer. He can only be successful when he gets forward position, and this is the perfect draw and distance for him to get the sort of trip he needs.