TimeformUS Race Analysis
David Aragona posts his picks & plays each live race day.
Thursday, April 23
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
I don't trust No Filter (#2), who figures to be one of the favorites off his debut effort last October. Claimed out of that race, he has struggled to get back to the races for new connections. He was entered twice over the winter on days that were cancelled and now doesn't resurface in the entries until three months later while also dropping in class. I have a little more faith in Counter Move (#6), who has a recency edge and a body of work that makes him the horse to beat in this spot. He ran pretty well last time considering that he broke a step slowly and had to adapt to a new running style. I would just much rather take the third-place finisher from that Mar. 20 affair at a better price. Sports Hero (#5) was sent forward early to contest a fast pace. He tired a bit late but did fight gamely into the last furlong. He's been steadily improving, and I think turning back to 6 furlongs will suit him now that he's refined his early speed.
RACE 2
Blossoming Erudite (#2) has to be considered the horse to beat as she gets back to her favorite track and distance. Her two victories from last fall that could beat this group if she reproduces them. Among her main rivals is Soloshot (#7), who finally gets back on turf after a winter of dirt racing. She actually performed a lot better than I would have expected on dirt, which might speak to her current form. It's been a while since she's won a race, but she ran better than it looks in a few turf starts last year and has upside first off the claim for Amelia Green. At similar prices, I just have a little more interest in betting Just Add Water (#5), who returns from a layoff for Chad Summers. I thought this filly showed some potential last year up at Saratoga. She was much the best when she won on July 20 after getting off to a poor start. She then got a wide trip when she lost at this level in August before going to the sidelines. It seems like she's training well for her return.
RACE 3
I didn't want to settle for a short price on Marketplaceofideas (#1), who has been mildly disappointing considering that she's still a maiden after three starts. She was bet strongly on debut and just missed despite getting a perfect trip. Upon returning this winter, she ran fine in a couple of races in Florida but didn't necessarily show any progression. Between the Chad Brown duo, I much prefer Mistborn (#5), who seemingly has more upside as a second-time starting 3-year-old. Chad is 38 for 112 (34%, $2.94 ROI) with maiden second time starters in turf routes at NYRA over 5 years. Furthermore, this filly didn't get an ideal trip on debut. She was off a step slowly and then rated behind a slow pace. Her jockey then swung her extremely wide when attempting to rally on the far turn, never putting her in position to be effective. She's trained well since that race and looks ready to step forward. I also think Deference (#3) is another second time starter who can improve on her debut. The pace of that race may not look that fast, but it was coming apart late, and she should benefit from that experience.
RACE 4
Pippa Adds (#4) figures to take money after facing a better field on debut down at Gulfstream. Winner Sippin Pretty has shown talent and returned to easily win an allowance race next time out. This Pletcher trainee showed speed and faded, and is bred to improve as a half-sister to Grade 3 route winner Accelerize. Her main rival on paper is Saratoga Party (#1), who ran a race that will beat this field when she made her second start last October. She's seemingly regressed since then, but she had valid excuses in both subsequent starts. She got a traffic-filled trip on Dec. 27 and then was wide against a rail bias on Feb. 4. I prefer her of the two favorites, but I'm going in a different direction. First time starter Flying Hawley (#6) strikes me as a filly with some talent. She's going out for Shug McGaughey, who isn't known for winning on debut. Yet he is a respectable 6 for 38 ($1.88 ROI) with 3YO+ firsters in dirt sprints over 5 years. This daughter of Curlin out of Grade 2 route winner Vault looks all distance, so debuting at 7 furlongs makes sense. The only workout video available is her March 22 gate drill where she was slow into stride before easily catching her workmate and then galloping out well ahead under mild encouragement.
RACE 5
As far as top picks are concerned, I had trouble looking past the logical contenders. On the Ledge (#1) owns the best turf speed figure in the field. I don't fully trust him to run his best race off the layoff, and he's drawn a tough inside post position in a race that features plenty of other speed. I prefer the upside of Funny Factor (#5) as he returns from a layoff this ran well in all of his turf sprints last year, particularly that Saratoga maiden score. I’m not sure that he really wants to go a mile, but he still almost held on in the Notebook Stakes last November despite racing wide throughout. He appears to be working well for his return and should beat this field if he's stepped forward at all. The one bomb that I would try to get into the mix somewhere underneath is Take a Stance (#2). This is a turf horse who clearly needed his lone run over this surface last fall. He didn't get ridden to win that day, and should do better returning to this surface as a more mature 3-year-old.
RACE 6
Neither favorite is easy to trust in this conditioned claimer. Sequential (#5) has occasionally run races that make him too tough for this field to handle, but he's totally unreliable and it's hard to know what to expect now that he's claimed away from Linda Rice. She sends out that one's main rival Magnanimous Max (#6), who makes his first start off the claim following a maiden win in January. I did like that victory as he beat a next-out winner despite drifting to a dead rail late. However, he's been entered and scratched a couple of times since then, so there have seemingly been some issues getting him back to the races. I definitely don't want Salming (#3), who travels well and then lacks finish when called upon, indicative of a horse that doesn't want to route on dirt. He also has consistent gate issues. I'll instead bet on First Pitch (#4), who gets needed class relief after going off at huge prices in a series of allowance races. I know his last race looks terrible, but he was never asked for much at any point while basically eased that day. His prior starts really aren't that bad, especially considering that he had some issues at the start two back. He definitely wants a mile, and he gets an interesting rider upgrade to Edgard Zayas for a hot barn.
RACE 7
I don't have a major knock against Pair of Socks (#1), who is arguably the horse to beat after finishing in a tougher spot at this level with some minor trouble last time. He also just missed two back when not getting the best ride, overcommitting to the inside path. He fits here, but I get the feeling we've already seen the best he has to offer and others may have more upside. That's seemingly true of Bostontonian (#2), who returns from a layoff for Wesley Ward. He had a valid excuse in his loss out at the Breeders' Cup meet last November, and prior to that he had been undefeated. He must get a bit faster, but he looks like the controlling speed. Ward is also 11 for 19 (58%, $3.42 ROI) coming off 90+ day layoffs at NYRA over the last 5 year, and this gelding has been training well at Keeneland. If I'm going to try to beat him, I'll do it with Private Desire (#7) at a price. His last race was underrated by Beyer, and the 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure seems more in line with what the field should have earned. The pace was very fast, which made the final time slower. Yet this horse was contesting that pace early and was game to hold second behind Illuminare, who won next time out at Keeneland. This gelding has gone through a few different barns, but he once had real ability and seems to be coming back around for Tom Morley. I like the outside post for a horse who wants a forward trip.
RACE 8
I don't have a major problem with Aperitif (#8), who seems like the horse to beat based on her turf sprint efforts from last year. However, she is returning from a layoff and it's unclear if she'll be ready to return to that level in her first start off the bench. She is facing several 3-year-olds with more upside, including the expensive auction purchase Saint Margaret (#2). This filly ran well in her debut last summer at Saratoga, closing into a slow pace to get up for third. She then was far more aggressively ridden after a sharp start put in her in front when she tried this 6-furlong distance in October. The pace was fast, and she understandably tired late as the race came apart. She figures to have improved during the time away and seems to be working well for her return. I slightly prefer another 3-year-old. Daylight Dreamer (#4) gets on turf for the first time after taking some money in her dirt debut in February. While she doesn't have that much turf pedigree on her dam's side, she is sired by excellent turf sprinter Leinster. So far the best progeny by this young sire have generally excelled in turf sprints, so I expect this filly to move forward as she switches surfaces. She ran better than it looks on debut, racing in traffic early and getting shuffled back into the far turn. I would expect her to show more speed this time.
Friday, April 24
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.
Strategies & Insights
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
Chad Brown will probably win the opener with one of his two runners. Grayosh (#1) has the proven stakes form on U.S. turf but limited upside after she never really stepped forward during her 4-year-old season. Therefore I'll give the nod to Matilda (#2), who was electrifying when she won the German 2000 Guineas against males last May. She was subsequently sold and didn't run nearly as well for new connections in a French Group 1 last summer. Now she's with Chad Brown, for whom she's served as the work partner for Breeders' Cup winner Gezora this spring. If she runs to her works and prior, she'll beat Grayosh.
RACE 2
I have trouble trusting Grand Commander (#7) to repeat his last effort given his overall inconsistency, and he's moving up in class anyway. Though drawing outside probably does help his cause since he doesn't do well taking kickback. First Trumpet (#5) is arguably the horse to beat after he rushed up following a terrible start last time. Yet that was just a three-horse field, so I don't want to put much stock in the race generally. I'll instead go with Solo Empire (#1), who is actually getting class relief after facing tougher foes though the winter. He had no chance in a very tough $20k claimer that featured some dropdowns last time, and two back he was wide against the rail bias. I'm hoping Dalila Rivera just sends him to the lead as blinkers go back on.
RACE 3
Mr Skylight (#2) is a logical favorite as he drops in class off the claim for Linda Rice. This placement for a $20k tag might seem concerning, but Rice pulls off this move with success. She is 18 for 43 (42%, $2.20 ROI) with 50% dropdowns first off the claim on dirt over 5 years. His win last time was underwhelming, but he might not have to run that much better to beat this group. Master of Arms (#5) is his main rival, but I cashed on him last time when he was nearly 6-1 coming off some less than ideal trips. I don't need to take a shorter price on him now that his form is exposed again. I'll instead give one more chance to Factually Correct (#1). I know it looks like he's off form, but he's been facing tougher fields at the N2X allowance level. He actually ran a better race last time when he was outrun to the lead by the fleet What's Up Bro and still battled on for third behind a freakish performance from the winner. He owns some of the best TimeformUS Speed Figures in this field, and I'm hoping the class relief allows him to convert those numbers into a winning result. Ruben Silvera just has to be aggressive from the rail.
RACE 4
I'm not trying to beat Spirit of St Louis (#9). This is a substantial drop in class but a logical one since this horse needs a bit of a confidence boost. NYRA did his connections the favor of expanding the race conditions to allow for horses of any class to compete for this condition provided that they're coming off a layoff or haven't produced recent winning results. Even though he doesn't appear to be as sharp as he was at this time last year, he's still probably better than the rivals he meets here. That's not to say that there aren't other talented horses in this race, as both Smooth Breeze (#1) and Sounds Like a Plan (#6) have a right to step forward as 4-year-olds. The former got in a couple of starts at Gulfstream, though the latter might be the more naturally talented horse. If this race were a mile, I might have picked Sounds Like a Plan, but getting him to hold on at this distance off the layoff might be a tough ask with Spirit of St Louis running at him late.
RACE 5
This race would actually become much less competitive if one or two of the also eligibles drew in, since both Authentic Legend (#11) and Melody Man (#13) possess superior recent turf form to all of the horses inside of them. Between them, I would prefer Authentic Legend, who got a terrible trip when stuck wide every step of the way last time out at Gulfstream. Among those already in the main body of the race, I didn't trust In the Dark (#4). He has the best turf form from last year, but he has been steadily declining in recent starts, and I don't think he really wants to go two turns anyway. To me, he's a bet against. Plaza Del Sol (#7) finished well on debut at Fair Grounds but wasn't facing the strongest field that day and was making up ground into a pretty slow final quarter mile. He was entered for a $35,000 tag at Laurel last week, which doesn't inspire confidence. I wish there was some turf pedigree for Swiss Army Knife (#6), who has faced better horses on the dirt. His action makes me think he might take to grass, but I wish there was even the smallest signal of turf inclination in his breeding. The first time turf runner that I want to bet is Mr R T (#3). This horse goes out for connections that aren't known for winning turf races, but I have been waiting to see this horse get on the grass since he first made his debut last summer. He met some tougher rivals in a couple of maiden special weight races that bookend his career, but he actually showed some ability in a pair of maiden claiming races this winter. Both of those top efforts came with apprentice Dalila Rivera aboard, who regains the mount here. His pedigree is strongly geared towards turf, by Medaglia d'Oro out of a Dubawi mare, and he has the high-stepping action of a grass horse.
RACE 6
I'm generally against horses like Factory Settling (#5), who have gone favored in three starts for Chad Brown and remain maidens. She did have a legitimate excuse last time when she was never inside over a rail-biased course. However, it's still unclear if she's really stepped forward from her 2-year-old season, and she's unlikely to offer any value here. Her main rivals appear to be first time starters, none of which are terribly compelling. Mark Casse's New York Special (#2) figures to take the most money of those, but she's a half-sister to turf sprinter Casa Creed by dirt route sire Curlin. It seems like even Casse doesn't quite know what to do with that pedigree, drilling her extensively on turf before ultimately entering her on dirt. I prefer two lightly experienced runners drawn outside. One of those is Neri (#8), who got a very wide trip on debut last fall and then regressed stretching out 14 days later. She's better than that, and can progress here if she's ready off the layoff. My top pick is Big Jackie (#7), who should improve greatly from her debut experience. She was slow into stride and then was climbing greenly at the back of the pack. She didn't have much punch on the far turn but did stay on well through the last furlong like a horse who has more ability than her result suggests. I'm expecting her to show more speed this time with blinkers going on.
RACE 7
The pace of this race depends heavily on whether Longshoreman (#2) runs here or the stakes on Saturday. This colt showed a ton of speed in the Futurity last year, setting some blazing early splits despite not even breaking that well. He'll be tough if he's progressed since last year, but he is facing a tough field of older horses off the layoff. Cuando (#9) has more experience at in these conditions and should be breathing down his neck early. Neither he nor morning line favorite Cyclonite (#5) are winning types, but both have proven form at this class level. I slightly prefer the recency of Cyclonite, but you have to be a little concerned with his tendency to hang late in this races. My top pick is Flat to Da Mat (#7), but I will readily acknowledge that he needs the speed to stay in this race as a confirmed closer. He has had limited turf sprint opportunities, but he has run well under when given the chance. His last turf sprint effort over this course last September was an underrated effort since that was a slow-paced affair dominated up front. He has a right to do better as a newly turned 4-year-old.
RACE 8
Raynam Hall (#9) is arguably the horse to beat as she gets back on turf. This filly displayed talent when she finally got into some turf routes during her 2-year-old season, and she may be too good for these if she's progressed at all since then. I don't love the fact that Rudy Rodriguez risked her for a tag on dirt last time, since she ran well enough last year to hold out for a New York-bred maiden special weight. Yet it's not like this is that much of a drop. I generally didn't want the older horses who have already had chances at this level, though I do respect the fact that On a Summer Day (#2) ran well fresh off a similar layoff last year. She drew much better than the other main contenders. I was just intrigued by a couple of other 3-year-olds. Rocket Robin (#11) got a wide trip in her lone turf route attempt last year, and can do better as she returns from a layoff. I imagine she'll show more speed with blinkers, especially drawing outside. Yet the lightly raced 3-year-old I really want to bet is Valiant Diva (#12), who ran better than it looks in both starts last year. She was compromised by a slow pace on debut, and then had some traffic that wasn't noted in the chart comments last time, getting steadied at the quarter pole just as she was launching a rally. She returns with Lasix at a more realistic level, and I don't mind the post position too much since she figures to take back and launch one run. I'm expecting a better result this time, and the price should be fair. Tom Morley is 4 for 22 (18%, $5.91 ROI) off 105 to 210 day layoffs in turf routes over 5 years.
