TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

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RACE 2

I'm not trying to beat Over and Ollie (#6), who appears to be dropping back down to a realistic class level after trying the Grade 1 Forego in his last start at Saratoga. He didn't even run as badly as the result might suggest in that stakes attempt, as he had to be taken in hand early on the backstretch, losing position before getting further shuffled back and basically eased late. He had run very well to decisively win an optional claimer two back in his first start for the Rick Dutrow barn. He displayed improved early speed to lead from gate to wire that day, and figures to have another opportunity to attain forward position from this outside draw. Main pace rival Spikezone (#5) is naturally quicker in the early stages, as indicated on the TimeformUS Pace Projector. However, Spikezone has occasionally struggled to break cleanly in his recent starts, and his form has tailed off through the spring and summer. He is putting blinkers back on for this race, and his early speed did seem a little sharper with that equipment earlier this year. However, he will be racing for the high-priced claiming tag for the first time since getting claimed by Jamie Ness at the end of 2022. If Over and Ollie is tracking him from close range, I expect he'll have trouble holding off that rival. Acoustic Ave (#3) put in the best effort of his career last time at Saratoga, closing with a rush to just get up going today's 6-furlong distance. He has steadily improved since getting claimed by Linda Rice this spring, but he was no match for Over and Ollie when he met that rival in July. He has to be respected in his current form, but I preferred his two main rivals with a bit more tactical speed.

Fair Value:
#6 OVER AND OLLIE, at 3-2 or greater

RACE 3

I suppose Ordinary Love (#4) and Apertif (#9) are the two horses to beat based on their turf performances, but neither one looks all that formidable. Ordinary Love has been a disappointment, taking money in every single start and failing to break through. She has been hampered by gate issues in every start, and it has to be a concern that she could break slowly again from an inside post. Apertif has improved through racing, putting in the best effort of her career last time when closing for second at this level behind a gate-to-wire winner. I like her stretching out slightly to 6 furlongs, but she did draw the far outside post for the second start in a row. My top pick is Lady Angelina (#3), who switches to grass after one dirt sprint attempt. At least she isn't coming off much of a layoff, having just run over two months ago. She showed good speed, dueling with three other rivals through some quick fractions before fading. While the turf pedigree isn't as obvious, Violence is a 14% turf sprint sire, and her dam was clearly best on turf despite never winning. Even second dam Go Unbridled arguably ran the best race of her career in her only turf start. She strikes me as one who is better than her debut, and perhaps can show it on this surface.

Fair Value:
#3 LADY ANGELINA, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 4

Frizzante (#8) figures to attract plenty of support in this $30k conditioned claimer as he makes his first start off the claim for Brad Cox. However, I wonder how much the new barn can improve him considering that he's exiting the stable of Linda Rice, who appeared to get the best out of him last winter before he tailed off recently. There's no move up in class off the claim, and he didn't have much of an excuse to lose at this level last time when he hung late after getting a great pace setup. Among the closers, I prefer Leftembehind (#5), who makes his first start off the claim for Ilkay Kantarmaci. This barn does do well off the claim on dirt, though they are much more effective with sprinters than routers within that sample. Kantarmaci is just 4 for 35 (11%, $1.20 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes. That point aside, this horse doesn't have to improve much at all to factor in this spot. He ran into a tougher rival at this level last time, and has plenty of prior performances against tougher than fit with this group. I'm just going in a different direction with my top pick. Brave Bear (#1) is the "now" horse looking to make it two in a row after winning at a cheaper N2L level last time. However, he earned a competitive speed figure in that victory, always finding more on the front end after setting a legitimate pace. This will be his first attempt trying two turns on dirt, but he strikes me as a horse who has always been suited to longer distances on this surface. He's a long-striding son of Bernardini who does best when he can gallop along at one pace. He figures to get an aggressive ride from Flavien Prat, and the Rudy Rodriguez barn has been in a groove since the start of this meet. Rudriguez notably is 5 for 18 (28%, $2.24 ROI) second off the claim with last-out winners on dirt at Aqueduct over 5 years.

Fair Value:
#1 BRAVE BEAR, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 6

Linda Rice sends out two of the top contenders in this starter allowance. Adrian (#1) just missed at this level on Sep. 11, closing from the back of the pack to just miss. It was her first start off the claim for Rice and a return to form after she had run poorly on turf at Saratoga. She's proven to be more of a dirt horse, and obviously fits in this spot. However, her lack of early speed is a minor concern in a race without much pace. The same can be said of Purloin (#6), who finished just behind her uncoupled stablemate in that same Sep. 11 race. She lagged even farther behind early and made a nice move to reach contention at mid-stretch before flattening out. She's another making her second start off the claim for Rice. Jamie Ness has also entered a pair of runners, though both have something to prove. The stronger contender is probably Big Air (#4), who at least possesses some tactical speed. She beat much weaker when breaking her maiden at Colonial last time, but did earn a strong 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure that victory over this distance. My top pick is Circuit Court (#7), who stretches out to a mile for the first time after a series of sprints. She ran well off a freshening to break her maiden at Saratoga in July, but then wasn't as successful when she stepped up against winners at this level. The faster pace of that Aug. 15 race didn't agree with her, as she struggled to keep up early and had nothing left late. She should get into a more comfortable rhythm going longer here, and I liked the way she finished in her longest prior race over 7 furlongs back in May.

Fair Value:
#7 CIRCUIT COURT, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 8

This state-bred maiden is pretty wide open with many options to consider. Coach Ryan (#9) could go off as the lukewarm favorite after the scratch of Jack's World. This colt was mildly disappointing when he finished fifth at a short price on debut at Saratoga. However, that was a slow-paced race where few made any impact from the back of the pack. Closing fourth-place finisher Gaming Wizard did come back to win his next start on dirt impressively with more speed, and Coach Ryan is a candidate to show a bit more early speed this time as well. Chad Brown does tend to do better with second time starters than debut runners in this situation. A Little At First (#5) figures to attract some support after closing in his sprint debut at Saratoga. I wonder about added ground for this son of War Dancer, who is a full-brother to top sprinter Twenty Six Black. Though he is also a half-brother to router Can't Fool Me, who runs in today's first race. Make a Prediction (#12) is another won of War Dancer stretching out for the first time. He's already had his chances on turf, closing belatedly in a series of sprints. His pedigree doesn't give much confidence for the stretch-out, but he did gallop out very strongly last time. My top pick is Sunday Boy (#1), who also stretches out exiting that same Sep. 21 race. He ran well in his first couple of starts on dirt, but really seemed to step forward with the switch to turf last time. He lagged behind early after stumbling at the start, but he finished with a flourish, flying home to just miss getting up for third before galloping out strongly. He's a full-brother to stakes-winning sprinter Sunday Girl, but his stride length and demeanor give me some confidence that he'll appreciate going longer as opposed to sprinting. He drew well and still has upside after running out of ground in that turf debut.

Fair Value:
#1 SUNDAY BOY, at 7-2 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

There are four logical contenders in this 6-horse field, and two outsiders that seem like more of a reach. The winner will probably come from that quarter of likely short prices, but none of them seem particularly trustworthy. Fever Night (#3)is probably the one that I trust the most, since the class relief alone should make him tough to beat in this spot. He faced much tougher rivals in his two prior starts since the claim by Linda Rice, who is just now getting realistic after a freshening. The problem is that he lacks any early speed, and there isn't much pace in this race, so it's hard to see him getting a favorable trip. Rice's other runner Derek's Law (#4) did run well in his last start, but he's hard to like based on his prior form, and I'm not encouraged that Rice entered this horse in a turf sprint a couple of weeks ago before scratching. Cocktailsnkringle (#5) is another coming off the best effort of his career, and a repeat of that Saratoga victory at this distance could win here. However, he beat a pretty weak field. Neon Bordeaux (#2) has some of the most consistent form of the main players, but he's another plodder in a paceless race and he might need a start off the layoff for a barn who rarely has them cranked up for their returns. That leads me to one of those outsiders. Magni (#1) obviously isn't good enough to win this race based on his prior dirt form. Yet he last raced on dirt in April of this year, and 3-year-olds often improve a lot from the spring of their sophomore seasons into the fall. He's only run on turf recently, and he's steadily gotten better on that surface. His last two efforts are actually a lot better than the bare results suggest given his wide trips. I suspect he's a better horse now than when he last raced on dirt. He's spotted at the right level and figures to get an aggressive ride from Ruben Silvera in this paceless affair.

Fair Value:
#1 MAGNI, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 2

I suppose King Puck (#1) could attract some support as he steps up against winners for the first time, having proven pretty popular with the bettors during his career. I thought he found the right field when he broke through last time, and didn't want to take him right back as he moves up in class. I believe the main contenders in this race are all exiting the Sep. 14 race at this level. Five of the 7 runners in this field come out of that affair, and the one who figures to attract support based on his trip is Van Vollenhoven (#4). He was already viewed as a clever pick by some handicappers last time when he was turning back on turf for the first time since his career debut. He arguably should have won when getting stymied in traffic at a couple of key points during the race. However, he would have won with a perfect trip, and I don’t think he's going to be much of a price here getting a rider upgrade to Kendrick Carmouche. Launch Control (#6) could also take money after going favored in that Sep. 14 race. He showed speed and faded, and might move forward second off the layoff. I just don't trust a horse who has only one prior effort that makes him formidable against this field, especially at another short price. I want two others from that affair. One of those is Stormy Birthday (#5), who might get somewhat overlooked here despite achieving the best result of the five runners from that common race. He did get a good trip, saving ground in the pocket before tipping out. Yet he also battled on bravely in the late stages even as the race was starting to come apart. He's run his best races going 6 furlongs over this course, and he never gets the respect he deserves from the bettors. My top pick is Master Freud (#2), who closed for third in that common race last time. He found himself farther back than he wants to be after a less than ideal start, and he never had an opportunity to save any ground after that. He was 3-wide all the way around the far turn until tipping out 5-wide into the lane. He actually did well to get into contention at the eighth pole before flattening out, understandably after such a wide trip. He's drawn better here, and has a right to improve making his second start since switching into the underrated barn of Antonio Arriaga.

Fair Value:
#2 MASTER FREUD, at 9-2 or greater
#5 STORMY BIRTHDAY, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 4

Hamilton's Way (#7) figures to attract some support off the recent trainer switch to Brad Cox, who does much better than this horse's prior trainer in just about every category. He didn't even run that badly in one start for the Wayne Potts stable last time, but it's reasonable to expect improvement here. He does have plenty of back class, occasionally running races that would beat this field when he was in better form for Ray Handal. I don't love that he's 1 for 18 in his career, and even 9 furlongs may be a tad short of his best distance. He's a contender, but I preferred others. Jurisprudence (#4) is unlikely to be an interesting price going out for top connections. He didn't beat much of a field in his debut at Laurel, but he did overcome a wide trip in doing so. He got back on turf last time and wasn't particularly effective, but he got a crazy trip in that race. He was rank into the clubhouse turn, and then launched this early, wide move down the backstretch, ultimately navigating the second turn wide without cover before fading. He's better than that, and is probably dropping to the right level, racing for the optional claiming tag here. My top pick is Kulapat (#5), who looks inconsistent at first glance. Yet I can easily excuse his effort at Kentucky Downs last time, since he was pretty far back behind a pace that really moderated in the middle of the race with the entire field bunching. He was actually trying to launch a rally in upper stretch, but lacked room and couldn't regain his momentum on the uphill run. He was visually impressive breaking his maiden against maiden claimers two back, which makes him eligible for this spot. The races of his that really interest me are actually three and four back. He got an impossible wide trip chasing a fast pace on June 6 over a turf course that he probably didn't like. His prior May 4 run actually makes him a contender here, as he chased home stakes-quality rivals Uncatalyzed and Noble Confessor. I think he's better than he looks overall, and he's suited by the 9-furlong distance of this race.

Fair Value:
#5 KULAPAT, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 7

Suprenant Cocca (#4) is clearly the horse to beat in in this $35k conditioned claimer for fillies and mares. She's earned some of the fastest speed figures in this field and has generally been in solid form since the claim by Mike Maker last year. The problem is that she's returning from a layoff, having not raced since February, and is dropping back in for a tag after being protected in her four prior starts. Maker and the connections only claimed her for $30k, so dropping back down to a similar level makes sense. I am just reluctant to trust a deep closer off this kind of layoff, even as she gets some significant class relief. Lotus Petal (#2) is one alternative to consider, as she is coming off the best recent performance of anyone in this field. Yet she got a perfect trip to achieve that runner-up result at this level last time, riding the pocket along the rail before angling out smoothly at the quarter pole. She still got run down by the superior Bryant and Cooper, and I'm skeptical that she can be as effective here. She also figures to be a fraction of the price she was last time. Authenticate Now (#6) is one of the bigger prices I'd consider. She's light on speed figures, but she did have some minor traffic trouble coming to the quarter pole of her last race, and recovered decently to stay on for second. She held her own against a decent rival in Turf Rocket two back, and may not be as overmatched here as it appears at first glance. My top pick is Vino Samara (#10), who is still seeking her first turf victory after finishing off the board in three prior attempts on this surface. Yet she has run better than it looks in a few of those starts. She contested a fast pace in a race that fell apart when she made her turf debut as a two-year-old. She then sprinted in her next start on that surface. Between turf starts she did break her maiden in an dirt race rained off the turf, notably the only time she's raced for a tag. She then went back to grass last time in a much tougher allowance race and got a ridiculous wide trip, never getting cover while parked in the 3 to 4-path on both turns. She's clearly capable of better than her result that day, and should be far more effective dropping to this level.

Fair Value:
#10 VINO SAMARA, at 4-1 or greater