TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

There is an error in the morning line for this race. The odds on Helen's Revenge (#3) are a typo. She is supposed to be listed at 7-5, not 7-2. I also believe I made a misjudgment when setting the line on D's a Rock (#1). The 5-1 price was intended at the time of submission, but in retrospect I should have made her the clear-cut second choice. Helen's Revenge is still the horse to beat based on her superior recent form. Linda Rice has managed her career very well, taking advantage of every available condition as she's gradually moved her up the class ladder. However, D's a Rock looks like the lone speed on paper, and she has the back class to beat a field like this if William Morey has her right off the layoff. She's not a particularly clever pick, but I do think she can wire this group. Graceful Rose (#4) isn't without a chance, but I worry that she could be similarly pace-compromised as she was last time.

RACE 2

I'm not trying to beat Sandtrap (#5), who looks like a future graded stakes horse for Chad Brown. She's coming off a lengthy layoff, and he's taking the logical step of letting her clear her first-level allowance condition before testing deeper waters. She looked like something special in her debut in England as a 2-year-old and then held her own against future Breeders' Cup winner Gezora in her only other start. She's a full-sister to Grade 1 winner Carl Spackler, and couldn’t be working any better for her return in the new barn. It helps that she catches a rather ordinary field for the level.

RACE 3

Chad Brown is likely to pick up a few wins on this card, but I didn't think he had to add this race to the tally. His contender Filly Freedom (#5) is fairly logical turning back in distance, as I don't think she really appreciated going longer. However, I've never been her biggest fan, and there isn't that much pace in this race to set up her late run. I do think Sarir (#3) is a candidate to bounce back at a better price after she was caught chasing wide against the rail bias last time. However, it's tough to look past her 1 for 18 career record. I want to bet Romantic Dancer (#2), who got a rare bad ride from Flavien Prat last time. She looked like the speed in that Mar. 13 affair, but wasn't aggressively ridden away from the gate and got caught in the pocket behind a moderate pace. She was still locked in behind horses in upper stretch and was just never in position to be effective. Ruben Silvera should send her forward this time, and she's got several prior races that can beat this field.

RACE 4

Solitude Dude (#1) is very much the horse to beat in this spot. He's dominated all three of his sprint victories and he was hardly disgraced finishing a gallant third in the Fountain of Youth last time behind two of the top choices in the Kentucky Derby. I think it's admirable that his connections have decided to turn him back in distance out of that race, since this is clearly what he wants to do. However, I do have some concerns about how much that Fountain of Youth effort took out of him. He didn't work back for a month after that race, and didn't look quite as sharp in a recent drill I watched. He was expected to tackle the Pat Day Mile, but now lands in this soft spot instead. I'm not conceding this race to him at a short price, especially since I think he's meeting a legitimate rival. Igniter (#4) hasn’t run nearly as fast as the favorite, but he has also delivered in all of his one-turn starts. I actually don’t believe he's a pure sprinter, and thought he was very game to win at 6 furlongs last time when that's probably short of his ideal trip. He beat a track bias in an underrated allowance on Feb. 11 going this distance, and that has proven to be a very strong race. He's drawn well outside of his main rival, and I think he can pull off the minor upset.

RACE 5

The majority of the entrants in this New York-bred turf allowance are older fillies and mares, but I think the younger 3-year-olds might have the edge here. The horse to beat is Cosmic Candy Girl (#9), who returns from a layoff following a productive 2-year-old season. She never finished out of the exacta last year, and just narrowly lost the Key Cents Stakes in her final start of the year. She got spun wide into the clubhouse turn that day and never saw the rail, so ground loss probably made the difference between winning and losing. She appears to have worked well during her brief preparation for this return, and it's natural to expect some improvement through maturity. I just prefer fellow 3-year-old Unmiztaken (#6) at a slightly better price. She also showed some talent last season, running well despite not winning her only turf start on debut. She set an honest pace and dug in gamely to just miss in a race that was falling apart in the late stages. She subsequently got rained off the turf and still won next time out. Her connections then took a shot in that lucrative New York Stallion Series stakes at the end of the season where she was hardly disgraced staying on for fourth after getting off to a poor start. That effort gives me some hope that she'll handle added ground, and her pedigree also offers hope. She's out of a dam who was a 5-time turf route winner, and is a half-sister to multiple turf route winner Miztertonic. This filly has the early speed to control the race on the front end. The others that I would include are Heavenly Light (#1) and Lady Wisdom (#3), who both get back on turf for the first time since early in their careers. They actually finished noses apart in the same turf race in October 2024 where they each ran better than it looks getting wide trips.

RACE 6

There's plenty of guesswork to be done in a maiden race that has very little prior turf form. In fact only two horses in this field have prior experience going two turns on turf, and I don't really like either one of them. This feels like a prime opportunity for first time starters or first time turfers. In the former category, Homewood Hustle (#6) is the newcomer likely to attract the most support. He ships into New York for Will Walden and has plenty of turf pedigree. He would be no surprise, but this barn is just 2 for 23 ($1.00 ROI) with first time starters in turf routes over 5 years. I'm more intrigued by a couple of surface switchers. The one that I've been waiting to see get on turf is Classic Commander (#1). I made a note when I first watched this horse last fall that I was anxious to see him get a chance on grass. He obviously never had that opportunity when he competed through the winter, but I'm encouraged that new trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci is getting him on grass at the first opportunity. Classic Empire is an underrated 12% turf route sire, and the dam was a 2-time turf winner who was best on grass. His movement is all turf, with big, loping action and suspension to his stride. I expect him to like the grass. The other horse I want to use, Pilot Knob (#8), hasn't shown as much ability in his dirt races, but that's only going to drive up his price. He's another with plenty of turf pedigree, by 13% turf route sire Flameaway out of a turf-winning dam. He's a half-brother to 2 turf winners including a 6-time grass winner. It also doesn't hurt that an experienced turf jockey like Kendrick Carmouche takes the mount.

RACE 7

Even though he probably should have won and clearly put for the best effort last time, I still have trouble trusting Fireballin (#8) at a short price. I've never been the biggest believer in this horse because he just fails to finish off his races. He did hang around pretty well considering the difficult pace scenario last time, but he once again shut down in the last furlong, giving up his advantage. He now takes the blinkers off to help him relax, but he also has to get 7 furlongs. Among the likely speeds, I prefer Kenny Be (#4), who should benefit from his return race last time. He was a bit tentatively handled on the far turn before coming on again between horses in the lane. He's another that is somewhat questionable at the 7-furlong distance, but his best race can obviously beat this field. I put Leo's Reward (#3) on top because he just seems to fit the race very well. There's speed to set up his late run and he can handle this unique distance. He will have to overcome a layoff, but David Donk's runners have come back fresh and ready to fire since the start of his meet. If he shows up with his best effort, he should win.

RACE 8

Intellect (#5) is going to be a popular single in all of these late sequences, and for good reason. He finished second in three consecutive graded stakes last year, culminating in a runner-up result in the Grade 1 Fourstardave last summer. There is no one else in this field with that kind of class, and you generally don't have to worry too much about Chad Brown runners coming off layoffs of this type. The only real danger that I can see is if a horse gets loose up front. That could potentially be Exact Estimate (#7), who does his best running from the front end. Some might perceive him as coming into this race in poor form, but he has had legitimate excuses in each of his last three starts. Two of those were on dirt, and he's just not a very good dirt horse. His last turf race is also a toss, since he got squeezed back at the start and raced rank and wide throughout before understandably fading. This will mark his first turf start for the Brad Cox barn and I expect that he's going to get back to form following a freshening. Will that be good enough to beat the favorite? I'm not entirely sure, but I'm willing to bet on that possibility at the expected price.

RACE 9

I didn't pick him on top, but I do think Irish Goodbye (#8) is the horse to beat after running deceptively well on debut. He didn't break sharply, and made a long backstretch move, advancing up to contest the pace before briefly taking over in the lane. He tired late, but still fought on valiantly for second as the race collapsed. The only issue I have with that performance is that I don't think he was facing the strongest field and this spot may be tougher. The horse with the highest ceiling in the race may be Max Money (#3), if he can get back to his runner-up effort in the Sleepy Hollow last year. It's just hard to trust him to do so, since he was vanned off that day and was a shadow of his former self in his lone subsequent start. Perhaps he'll be ready to rebound off the layoff but I'm not totally convinced. I'll instead go with the upside of George's Gold (#5), who returns from a layoff after finishing behind Max Money in his lone dirt start last year. He was pretty green that day, shifting about and struggling with lead changes, but he showed some ability running in spots. He didn't take to turf next time, but his pedigree leans more dirt and I like him cutting back here. He seems like a horse with room to improve if he's matured mentally during the time away.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

You can make a reasonable case for anyone in this conditioned claiming opener. I have some doubts about Reliable Lady (#1) getting the distance, and I thought she could take money off her narrow loss at this level last time. I also didn't quite trust Malu (#2), who looks like a standout based on her 2025 form for Lind Rice. However, she ran poorly off a layoff last time and now goes out for a new barn, though one that does well off the claim. Rice has two in here, of which I prefer Vino Frizzante (#3), who returns on short rest after putting up a poor effort here last week. Linda does great with this move, and this mare gets minor class relief. My top pick is Bourbon Serengeti (#5), the other Ilkay Kantarmaci entrant. I didn't love the decision to rate her last time, and thought she was running on decently at the end after losing position into the lane. She fits at this level and I like the switch to a rider that this barn tends to use when they want a frontrunning trip.

RACE 2

There's little left to say about this race after 4 of the 7 runners scratched. Coquito (#6) finished a solid second on Starter Championship day last time, and appears to have a massive pace advantage against what remains here. 

RACE 3

Mo for the King (#1) will beat this field if he's able to reproduce his last effort, where he obliterated a state-bred starter field. He now moves up into open company, and he's catching a tougher field. Perhaps he's just a new horse sprinting, but I want to see him do it again, especially now that he's drawn the rail and likely to work out a different trip. There is plenty of speed signed on, which could set things up for a late runner. The obvious one is Sinister Smile (#8), who ran very well to be third at this level two back behind a talented pair of Linda Rice trainees. Then last time he didn't seem to appreciate stretching out to a mile, and also was wide in the early stages on a day you wanted to save ground. He's logical, but I have a little more interest in betting Go Irish (#6) at a better price. This gelding ran like one that needed a race off the layoff last time, as he made a middle move before flattening out. That wasn't a particularly fast pace, so it's not as if he was just running with the flow. He had gotten into very good form last fall and is now reunited with Javier Castellano.

RACE 4

Both runners with the fastest prior races have some questions to answer. Up for an Oscar (#3) earned the top turf speed figure in this field when he was a narrowly beaten third at this level last October. However, that was a slightly disappointing loss given his short price and the fact that he appeared to have every chance to win in mid-stretch. I won't be too hard on him for the last race since he got a wide trip, but I also don't know how many more chances I want to give a horse who has taken money every time. Orgonite (#2) is the reliable alternative with comparable prior form, but he's coming off a substantial layoff. David Donk has come out firing since the start of this new meet, but I still wonder if this horse could need a race after taking a few starts to reach peak form last year. There are several 3-year-olds to consider but none are terribly compelling, at least to me. I'll instead give a chance to first time starter Capt Fluff N Stuff (#6). It's taken this 4-year-old son of Astern a while to get to the races, but that's not necessarily a bad thing in this barn. Chad Brown is 7 for 13 (54%, $5.46 ROI) with 4YO+ first time starters in turf routes over the last 5 years. I liked the visual of this gelding's sales work from long ago, and he's got plenty of turf pedigree, being out of 4-time turf winner In the Lee and also related to turf stakes winners Ironicus and On Leave.

RACE 5

Wesley Ward holds a strong hand in this allowance turf sprint, sending out the two horses to beat. Di Natale (#1) seems like the slightly stronger contender after just missing against a very tough rival in her lone U.S. turf sprint over this course and distance last year. She subsequently suffered another narrow defeat at Turfway. She's needed time after each of those starts, but that's typical for Wesley Ward. His other runner Dangherecomesshang (#6) improved quickly getting back on turf last year and held her form in some strong races at this level. She's a minor question mark going 6 furlongs, but the outer turf did appear to be carrying speed on Thursday. I have some interest in one alternative at a better price. Shore War (#2) is too slow based on her prior turf races, but I think she'll be capable of better switching back to turf for Amelia Green. She ran well off a layoff at Turfway in December and some of her prior turf sprint form is better than it might appear at first glance. That's especially true of her race from August 2024 where she got completely blocked in traffic. She has the tactical speed to sit a pocket trip and figures to get somewhat overlooked.

RACE 6

Only the two rivals who bookend this field are coming off victories, and they figure to attract support by virtue of those recent wins. Ez Roll (#1) beat a weaker state-bred starter allowance field last time, but he does appear to have come to hand since switching back to dirt for Ray Handal this winter. The added distance is a question mark, but he has negotiated two turns on turf successfully in the past. I prefer him to Probability (#8), the other horse exiting a victory. He just broke his maiden last time out and did so against a pretty soft field for the level. I’m more intrigued by a couple of longshots. One of those is Smilensaycheese (#7), who has never gone this far before. He's been fairly inconsistent throughout his career and that trend has continued for his current barn. However, he did earn a speed figure that puts him squarely in the mix two back, and he finishes like a horse who should appreciate added ground. My top pick is Gamebred (#3), another contender who has never tried two turns before. However, he did run the best race of his career in his lone start stretching out to a mile in January. He was facing a pretty strong starter allowance field and held his own with a strong second-place finish, earning a career-best 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure. A repeat of that effort would likely win here. He has regressed in two subsequent starts, but he was against a track bias two back and never in great position last time. I'm expecting him to get a more aggressive ride picking up Jose Lezcano breaking from an advantageous inside post position.

RACE 7

While Chad Brown has three runners in this race, he might not have the horse to beat. Mark Casse's And One More Time (#7) has kept stronger company through recent starts down in Florida and has run better than it might appear a few times. She was totally against the race flow in the Pegasus, which collapsed late, and then last time she just couldn't see out 9 furlongs over a course with some give to it. Turning back to a mile should suit her, and she's squarely the one to catch. An intriguing new face in this lineup is Relaxx (#3), who makes her U.S. debut for Miguel Clement. She ran some decent races over in France and looks like one that might move up on firmer ground. I'm not the biggest fan of Chad Brown's primary contender Oversubscribed (#1), who had to work hard to beat a weak field off the layoff in the Forever Together last year, and was pretty dull at Fair Grounds last time. His other runners interest me more. Al Jafara (#4) was compromised by an unfavorable setup in the Endeavor last time, but she may not get the pace assistance that she needs once again. I want Accent (#5), who might be the biggest price of Brown's trio. I wasn't thrilled with her first couple of starts, but I thought she really stepped forward second off the layoff last time. She got a good trip, but displayed an effective turn of foot when asked past the quarter pole and won quite easily. This is a big step up in class, but I like the confidence being displayed. She's certainly bred to pan out as the half-sister to Grade 1 winner Program Trading.

RACE 8

If Twirling Lad (#4) can handle the turnback to sprinting, he's probably going to win this finale. He was a pretty good 2-year-old, just missing at this level in October before finishing a strong fifth in the Notebook while still a maiden. He breaks sharply and has plenty of natural speed, so the turnback in distance shouldn’t be an issue for him. I'm not really against him, but not exactly keen to take a short price. I also wouldn't want to settle for too short a price on Aristide Maillol (#6), who has plenty of pedigree to handle this surface. Though, the fact that he's so obviously turf meant makes it a little strange that Bill Mott started him out on dirt down in Florida. He should move up on this surface, but I don't like that he's broken a step slowly in both prior starts. First time starter Kirkwood (#8) offers some appeal, being by excellent debut sire Vekoma and a half-brother to turf stakes winner Leon Blue. Miguel Clement has proven he can win with newcomers, and it's a good sign that Manny Franco lands here. Among the surface switchers, Deacon Blues (#9) intrigues me most. He's by underrated turf sire Dominus, who gets 13% turf sprint winners and sired this barn's turf horse Thin White Duke. He's also out of a dam who is a half-sister to 7-time turf winner Bonita Springs. This gelding looked like a horse who would appreciate a surface switch over the winter, and I like the Donk put him away to await the start of turf season.