TimeformUS Race Analysis

Picks & Plays for Monday, September 3

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 5 - 2 - 8
Race 2:   12 - 5 - 8 -
Race 3:   2 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 4:   7 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 5:   4 - 10 - 7 - 9
Race 6:   8 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 7:   10 - 7 - 1 - 6
Race 8:   9 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 9:   1 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 10:   7 - 8 - 5 - 2
Race 11:   9 - 10 - 5 - 2

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: WEGOTOLDYOUGOTSOLD (#12)
McErin is a very likely winner of this race as he drops in class out of much tougher N1X allowance races. My only knock against this horse is that he’s gotten very good trips in his last two starts and hasn’t been able to capitalize on them. He was supposed to win two back at Monmouth and just came up empty in the final furlong. Then last time, he saved ground around the turn, got into the clear at the eighth pole, and just hung. If he runs back to either of those efforts, he’s still likely to beat this field, but I’m not thrilled with him at a short price. There are some other runners with decent turf form in this race, but I want to take a shot with a new face. Wegotoldyougotsold is the type of Mike Maker claim that greatly interests me. Maker has a fantastic record with his turf claims in general, and he does especially well claiming horses with the intention of trying them on turf for the first time. Over the past five years, he is 9 for 29 (31 percent, $4.12 ROI) first off the claim with horses making their turf debuts. This gelding actually has plenty of turf pedigree since he’s a son of The Factor and his dam’s only win came on grass. Digging deeper into his dam’s female family, it’s clear that this is primarily a turf pedigree. While he’s yet to run a particularly fast race, he also has a right to take a big step forward in his second start off the layoff and while getting on the right surface.

RACE 4: WIN WITH PRIDE (#7)
The scratch of favorite Deep Sea makes this race a bit more wide-open. While I don’t think the pace will be fast, I could envision a scenario where Rockford, Joy Drive, and Full Salute all show speed, and that would allow closers like Bitumen and Win With Pride to have fair chances. Bitumen has been in good form recently, and he never had a chance last time when trying to close into a moderate pace over a track that was favoring inside speed. I think he’ll run better this time. I’m using him, but my top pick is Win With Pride. This horse was facing tougher company in many of his recent starts for Ian Wilkes before dropping in for a tag last time. While he disappointed as the favorite that day and was beaten by today’s rival Rockford, I thought he ran much better than it looks. The rail was dead on Aug. 5, and this horse was glued to the inside path for his entire trip. We saw another runner that was inside in the same race, Scarf It Down, come back to win earlier this week, so it’s likely that we’ll see improvement out of this horse today. I like this claim by Chris Englehart, who usually starts the right horses at Saratoga, and I think this distance is perfect for him.

RACE 5: DOMINANT STRATEGY (#4)
I found this race to be very tricky. Kulin Rock probably deserves to be the favorite as he drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. He is getting significant class relief and this race is projected to feature a fast pace, which should help set up his late kick. However, Barclay Tag is just 1 for 13 over the past five years with horses dropping in for a tag for the first time, and this gelding’s recent form does not inspire confidence. Gosilently ran well when defeated by next-out winner Prognostication last time in what was arguably a tougher spot than this. In some ways, he brings the best recent form to this affair, but he appears to be a horse that has an aversion to winning races. Conscripted is an intriguing new face, especially given his running style. Linda Rice does not have very strong numbers off trainer switches on the turf, but this colt has shown some ability. My main problem with him is the series of layoffs after each start, indicating that he probably has some physical issues. Dominant Strategy is not the kind of horse that I would usually land on in this situation, but I think he may just be meeting the right field once again. This horse really took the turf last time when he wired a field of $75,000 maiden claimers on opening day of the meet. He will probably have to run a bit better to win this time, but Chad Brown has an outstanding record in these situations. Over the past 5 years, he is 7 for 12 (58 percent, $3.30 ROI) with last-out maiden winners in N2L claiming races on the turf. This horse doesn’t strike me as one that necessarily needs the lead to win. He drew a good post position for this distance, and he figures to work out an inside stalking trip.

RACE 7: WILD COLONIAL BOY (#10)
Barely Impazible is going to take plenty of money as he returns from a lengthy layoff for Chad Brown. This colt was one of the more exciting New York-bred 2-year-olds last year before heading to the sidelines, as he won his debut in fast time, beating a pair of solid runners in Ultimateenticement and Collective Effort. If he returns in top form, he’s likely to win this race, but Brown doesn’t have the strongest numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 9 for 45 ($1.42 ROI) with horses coming off layoffs of 180 days or more in dirt sprints. His main rival may be Discreet Mission, who ran a legitimately fast race when destroying a field of cheap claimers last time. I’m not sure where that effort came from since I hadn’t loved any of this horse’s prior starts since returning from a two-year layoff this past spring. However, based on that last performance, he’s certainly a player. I’m using him, but the runner who intrigues me most is Wild Colonial Boy. This was a good claim by Linda Rice, who shows a ton of confidence as she steps this runner up in class directly into a protected spot. The ambitious placing is not a total shock given the strength of his performance when he won his maiden last time out. Despite the low claiming tag, he actually was pitted against a decent foe in Giant Boo Boo last time, and he powerfully ran by that one in the final eighth. This horse had shown hints of ability in his first two career starts down at Gulfstream, and I felt that he put it all together last time in his first start with blinkers. I was also encouraged to see that he showed a lot more speed that day. Another outside post is ideal.

RACE 8: FOUR KNIGHTS (#9)
This race is particularly confusing since none of the main contenders brings particularly strong credentials to the table. I suppose Saratoga Colonel is the horse to beat after having run reasonably well at the New York-bred N1X allowance level in two recent starts. His July 11 performance would clearly beat this field, but I didn’t love his most recent start, in which he got a good trip and had no answer in the late stages. Pocket Player comes out of the same race, and I actually prefer him despite the fact that he finished farther back in that Aug. 1 race. I thought that Florent Geroux put him on the rail at the back of the pack, and he could just never get into a position to be competitive. He has prior races that would make him a player here, so I’m definitely using him. Ultimately, I decided to go back to Four Knights, who is fresh off a maiden win at this meet. I had been very interested in him that day off his last start in Kentucky, where he ran much better than his fourth-place finish would indicate. He was stuck behind tiring runners on the turn that day and made up a ton of ground in the lane once Julien Leparoux finally got him into the clear. I liked the tactics that Luis Saez employed in that most recent start, as he sent him to the front in a race without much speed. The horses who finished directly behind him came from off the pace, so it’s not as if he was walking on the lead. He’s going to have to run better to win this race, but I think he might appreciate getting back onto a firmer turf course. Furthermore, there is not a ton of early speed in this spot either, so similar tactics could make him dangerous.

RACE 11: FOREVER RISING (#9)
Since neither Spring Drama nor Super Mama drew into this race, it becomes a wide-open affair where a couple of professional maidens are likely to vie for favoritism. Grand Banks has obviously run well enough to win at this level, but she has shown a real aversion to winning races. That was especially true two back when she didn’t get the best ride, but still had every chance to go by the winner while coming up the rail. Sardonyx has had fewer chances, and she probably deserves a few more chances before she’s written off as another Grand Banks. In her defense, she didn’t have the best of trips two back when she could never get clear when attempting to rally in the stretch. She’s certainly found the right field today. I’m using both, but this race feels like one that could produce a wacky result, so I want to look for a wacky horse. Forever Rising is a longshot that intrigues me. She’s clearly meant for turf, since that’s the surface on which she began her career and her dam was a turf horse. She made a couple of starts for Rudy Rodriguez on the lawn last fall and she didn’t run that badly either time – certainly well enough to make her a player in this race. Since then, she’s been campaigned in cheaper dirt races, primarily due to the fact that there weren’t any turf opportunities during the winter while she was racing. It’s possible that she just can’t run anymore for these current connections, but she’s now coming into this race off a layoff and they take the blinkers off. This is the kind of horse that could wake up in a spot like this, and she’s going to be an inviting price.

Picks & Plays for Sunday, September 2

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 8 - 2 - 7
Race 2:   6 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 3:   1 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 4:   2 - 1 - 4 - 10
Race 5:   6 - 8 - 12 - 3
Race 6:   2 - 8 - 1 - 6
Race 7:   9 - 7 - 4 - 8
Race 8:   2 - 3 - 1 - 8
Race 9:   8 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 10:   3 - 4 - 8 - 6
Race 11:   1 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 12:   1 - 10 - 9 - 4

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: BETTOR BANK ON IT (#6)
In these New York-bred turf sprints, you can often find some interesting price plays among the first time starters. Especially in this particular group, none of the trainers involved have stellar records in this situation and, though a few horses have plenty of turf pedigree, none are bred to be stars. I suppose the duo sent out by Jeremiah Englehart will take some money. Beach Front is the one with more pedigree, and he appears to have some fast workouts leading into this. I would also use Exchange Fever for George Weaver, as he is one of the few conditioners that has pretty good stats in this situation. However, both of those runners are pretty obvious and I want to look outside the box. The one that intrigues me most is Bettor Bank On It, who goes out for Ed Barker. These connections are not known for their prowess with first time starters, nor have they had a ton of turf success. However, I do get the sense that this one may have some ability. He sold for only $7,000 in June, but this colt actually worked a nice 10 1/5-second furlong at that sale, displaying a big stride that is typical of the progeny of his grandsire Speightstown. While he worked fast, his legs did appear to be a bit crooked in that drill, so I can see why he didn’t attract a hefty sum. Since then, he’s worked forwardly in the morning, and he appeared to get out of the gate well in a recent drill. He’s bred to handle the turf, since his dam was a turf winner and she has already produced a foal that won on the lawn.

RACE 4: DOVEY LOVEY (#2)
I think this is one of the most interesting races on the card, since you have some very well-bred first time starters facing off against a bunch of fillies with experience, many of whom stand to really improve out of their debuts. Among those firsters, Graceful Princess is likely to attract plenty of attention as the daughter of 2011 Horse of the Year and Woodward winner Havre de Grace. Based upon that pedigree, she’s bred to be a star, and she’s shown a hint of ability in the mornings for Ralph Nicks, who is certainly capable of getting a firster ready to win its debut. I’m using her, but this is a very tough spot. Todd Pletcher sends out Off Topic, who doesn’t have the stellar pedigree of the aforementioned filly, but nevertheless appears to be working well. They’re intriguing players in this spot, but I’m interested in the second-time starters. Dance Club closed well in her debut after getting squeezed back after the break, and she galloped out well beyond the wire. She’s bred to improve with distance as a daughter of Storm Flag Flying. Dovey Lovey doesn’t have much pedigree, but I thought her debut was very encouraging. She had the misfortune of running into one of the best 2-year-old fillies to debut at this meet, Feedback, but she closed resolutely into a pace that mostly held together, despite the fact that Joel Rosario dropped his whip around the turn. I like that she already has experience going an elongated sprint distance, and she figures to go off at a better price than some of the other second time starters in this group.

RACE 5: FRONT ROW DEBBIE (#6)
Chad Brown has the probable favorite as he sends out Sweet Connie Girl from the far-outside post position. She’s theoretically getting some slight class relief after facing starter-allowance company in her last two starts, but it’s not like this is a particularly easy spot. She’s obviously improved as a 4-year-old, but I’m a bit reticent to take her at a short price from this outside draw. She faces a real rival in She Doesn’t Mind, who goes out for Brown’s former assistant Jorge Abreu. I thought she ran very well in her first start for this barn, stalking the pace three wide before just getting cut down by the much-the-best winner. She was close to the pace that day, but there’s far more early speed in this field. I’m using her, but I’m actually interested in another horse out of that Aug. 10 race. Front Row Debbie closed for fourth in that spot, but I didn’t think she had the best trip. She found herself in decent position early but then appeared to get shuffled back around the far turn as others made their moves, eventually winding up nearly last at the quarter pole. Considering that she lost all her momentum, I thought she actually put in a good late run to be fourth. Going back to last winter at Gulfstream, this mare was running races that would make her very competitive against this bunch. I liked the way she finished when she won her maiden back in February, and she might have been placed a bit too ambitiously in most of her Kentucky starts. It seems likely that she’ll get a faster pace to close into this time.

RACE 8: SPECTACULAR PLUM (#2)
A couple of contenders in this spot are exiting the fifth race on July 11. Congruity won that race, but he was the beneficiary of favorable circumstances. There was absolutely no pace competition for him, and he was able to amble along on the front end through pedestrian fractions. Predictably, no one could pass him in the lane given that early advantage. This time, he figures to get some company up front from Meilleur. I prefer the other runner out of that race. Spectacular Plum was an interesting contender going into that July 11 spot, as he had run deceptively well in his recent starts at Monmouth. He was badly pace-compromised on May 26 in a race dominated on the front end, and then he was hindered by a very wide trip on June 16. Both of those starts came against older rivals, and I thought he put forth a very encouraging effort when placed back with straight 3-year-olds two back, despite a less-than-ideal setup. Not only was Spectacular Plum thwarted by the dynamics of that race, but I also thought he spent too much time losing position racing down on the rail. John Velazquez could never seem to get him into a position where he could build momentum, ultimately finding himself last on the rail at the top of the stretch. Considering that disadvantage, I thought Spectacular Plum rallied valiantly up the inside in the final eighth of a mile to nearly get up for second. I don’t care about the dirt race last time, and he draws a good inside post position for this race.

RACE 10: SOWER (#3)
It may not be a Grade 1 like its August counterpart, the Test, but this Prioress drew a field that is just as rich in quality. Mia Mischief is the horse to beat off her incredibly game second place finish in that race. It was a nice rebound off her disappointing loss in the Victory Ride back in June, where she just didn’t show up for some reason. Aside from that one poor effort, she has run well in all of her races. The slight cutback to 6 furlongs figures to help her and I cannot leave her out of the mix. Dream Tree is going to attract plenty of support as she returns from the layoff for the ever-dangerous combination of Bob Baffert and Mike Smith. She’s never lost through 4 career starts, but she will have to be ready to put in a career-best effort to compete with these seasoned fillies off such an extended break. While she defeated Midnight Bisou in two starts sprinting, I’m not convinced that she’s actually best going this short, and it’s possible that she could get outrun in the early portion of this race. She clearly has ability, but I’m somewhat against her at a short price. I’m using these fillies, but the one that I want to bet is Sower. In a race where the aforementioned horses figure to go off at relatively short prices, I wonder if Sower might be one that flies under the radar. This filly has done nothing wrong in her four career starts. While she lost to Mia Mischief and Classy Act in the Victory Ride, it’s easy to forget how well she ran in that race. She wasn’t that far off the taxing pace of the top two in the early going and she made a menacing run to briefly take the lead in the stretch before flattening out. That race came over 6 1/2 furlongs, and I think she’s going to appreciate this slight cutback to 6 furlongs more than any of her rivals. The Pace Projector shows her battling for the lead, but I think they will be content to let her rate once again, since she did it so well in the Victory Ride. She appears to be training into this race in spectacular fashion. I loved her recent move on Aug. 25, in which she just floated through the stretch under no encouragement to record the bullet. At anything close to her morning line price of 8-1, I think she’s a great bet.

RACE 11: EXCELLENT SUNSET (#1)
It’s difficult to know who will be favored in this confusing race. I would assume that bettors will gravitate toward Out of Trouble merely because she’s shown a fondness for winning races. She’s actually kept some decent company when facing New York-breds, but she’s going to get bet down off her lopsided dirt win last time. Jaunt has run well enough to win this race, but she’s also had plenty of chances. She’s come back as a better 4-year-old this year, but I still feel that she may find someone to beat her. I want to go for a new face, and the one who interests me most is Excellent Sunset. She makes her second start for Brendan Walsh after winning her maiden in her U.S. debut at Ellis Park last time. While it’s fair to be skeptical of horses shipping in from that jurisdiction in general, this filly is actually coming out of a good race. The runner-up that day, Pachinko, is a solid Brad Cox-trained Juddmonte runner who returned to win her next start by more than five lengths with an improved speed figure. Pachinko had a huge pace advantage in that July 4 race, as she set slow fractions and sprinted home. If those closing splits are correct, Excellent Sunset had no business running her down from off the pace. The two drew well clear of the rest of the field as Excellent Sunset leveled off beautifully in the last eighth of a mile, clocked in an amazing 11 seconds flat. The 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned for that performance (six points higher than Pachinko’s number) illustrates how she beat dynamics, as the number is 10 points higher than the raw final figure of 97 – in other words, that’s 10 bonus points when pace is factored into the figure. Walsh has solid numbers off maiden wins on turf, and I have a feeling that this one is going to outrun her odds.

Picks & Plays for Saturday, September 1

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 7 - 6 - 2
Race 2:   8 - 9 - 4 - 1
Race 3:   4 - 8 - 1 - 9
Race 4:   9 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 5:   7 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 6:   9 - 3 - 11 - 2 - 8
Race 7:   4 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 8:   7 - 10 - 4 - 8
Race 9:   1 - 3 - 2 - 9
Race 10:   4 - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 11:   7 - 10 - 9 - 12
Race 12:   3 - 5 - 8 - 6

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: NATURAL ORDER (#8)
You have to deal with a couple of troublesome dropdowns when handicapping this race. The one that I find to be more trustworthy is Platinum Prince, who ran just 2 1/2 months ago at Churchill Downs. Making his first start in more than 5 months, he got a little rank traveling down the backstretch and had to steady hard entering the far turn. From there, he got caught behind horses in the lane and could never muster up a rally. He obviously had races going back to last year that would crush this field, but Robertino Diodoro is being realistic off the claim, as he probably is no longer capable of performing at that level. Zoot Suit is harder for me to like. This is his first race since last October after making just a single start following the claim by Jeremiah Englehart. That was on dirt, and he faded badly after showing brief speed. This drop off the break feels more suspicious, and he’s going to have to deal with other speed types up front. I’m taking a shot against these horses with Natural Order. I generally don’t like turnbacks on the turf, but this horse has been running at distances that are just way beyond his capabilities in two of his last 3 starts. This horse’s maximum distance is a mile and a sixteenth, but he’s shown that he’s also capable of sprinting. Turning all the way back to 5 1/2 furlongs may be a bit drastic, but he’s run well doing this in the past at Saratoga. He’s likely to get some pace to close into in this spot, and his race two back indicates that he’s certainly still talented enough to win at this level.

RACE 4: MONSTER BEA (#9)
Night Prowler figures to attract support for Chad Brown as he drops in for the tag. It’s been a long time since this gelding won a race, but he’s been facing much tougher company in the majority of his starts since that victory. I wasn’t thrilled with his return from the layoff in July, but he has a right to move forward off that performance. He’s one to use, but he doesn’t necessarily scare me. Breaking the Rules interests me as he makes his initial turf start. This horse definitely has the pedigree to transition to turf, as a son of War Front out of a Phipps-bred female family that is full of turf influences. He’s shown some ability on dirt, but we’ve seen plenty of homebreds for this barn show their true potential once switched to the lawn. The only drawback with him is a potential lack of value. The two horses exiting the 11th race on July 21 both interest me. Team Colors got a great ride from Manny Franco that day, as he was able to save ground from the outside post position and rally up the inside in the stretch. Monster Bea was not so lucky, as he had to go 4-wide when making his run around the far turn and never had a serious chance to get involved late in a race that mostly held together up front. Monster Bea is a horse that has always shown ability, but he got stuck in a rut for his previous connections, as his form seemed to tail off. The good news is that there aren’t any alarming layoffs to suggest he’s unsound – it just seems that he might have lost interest. Often these types of runners can be rejuvenated by a barn change, and Carlos Martin and Matthew Schera have made some shrewd claims over the past few years. Monster Bea figures to get some pace to close into this time with a few key speeds signed on, and the addition of blinkers could get him involved a bit earlier.

RACE 5: PLAINSMAN (#7)
Weather Wiz and Uncle Sigh exit the same race at this level on Aug. 3. Uncle Sigh finished a neck ahead of Weather Wiz at the wire, but I thought the former runner put in the better effort after being hustled out to the lead from the outside post position. Weather Wiz clearly has a ton of talent when he’s in form, but he is going to have to deal with other speeds in here. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which could hinder his chances. I’m using him, but there are a couple of 3-year-olds to consider. The one that I don’t particularly like is Wooderson. He ran a competitive speed figure last time, but that race featured a very slow pace, which he was able to exploit. I think this is a big step up in class and he won’t get that same stalking trip this time. The one that I want to bet is Plainsman. Running for his prior trainer William Van Meter, he met some tough company over the winter, finishing behind Tenfold in an allowance race before tackling the Arkansas Derby. That was obviously too much too soon for this colt, but he’s since been given some time to develop. His two races since the layoff are both encouraging, mostly because I think a flat mile may be too short for him. I thought he stayed on well last time, in his first start with Lasix, as he determinedly chased the older even-money favorite to the wire. This time, Joel Rosario can place him in mid-pack, farther off what figures to be an honest pace, and that should make him tough to hold off in the lane.

RACE 7: ROCKING THE BOAT (#4)
I don’t fully trust either of the favorites in this race. Long Haul Bay seems like the horse to beat, since I guess you’re supposed to excuse his poor effort in the mud last time. The only problem with that is that he ran just fine over a sloppy track at Pimlico in May, so it’s not as if he’s established that he hates wet going. This horse has had some issues in his career, but he’s proven that he possesses a great deal of talent when he’s right. I would use him defensively, but I’m not totally convinced that we’re going to see one of his good efforts this time. Phi Beta Express gamely clung to winner Patternrecognition in the late stages of that Aug. 11 race, and he’s a top contender off that effort. However, now he has to deal with the early speed of Devils Halo and possibly even Mr. Brix, so I don’t think he’s going to get a free ride on the front end. I’m using these two, but the horse that I want to bet is Rocking the Boat. This horse ran some really nice races at Oaklawn Park over the winter, as he closed willingly behind the talented Sutton Impact going a sprint distance in February before finishing a good third at a big price in the Razorback. They have tried to stretch him out a few times, but I think he’s best going sprint distances. That’s certainly what he’s bred to do, as his dam was an accomplished sprinter during her racing career. His last start at Churchill Downs may seems slightly disappointing at first glance, but he was hindered by a slow pace that day. He should get a fair tempo ahead of him here, and I think he’ll be charging in the lane as he makes his first start for the Dale Romans barn.

RACE 9: UP THE ANTE (#1)
Raging Bull has to be considered the horse to beat in this Saranac off his visually impressive score in the Hall of Fame last time. That race featured an honest early pace, but Raging Bull was still far back at the top of the stretch, seemingly with too much ground left to make up. However, Joel Rosario timed it perfectly as this horse kicked it into another gear for the final eighth of a mile, powering past Maraud at the wire. This French-bred colt clearly has a ton of ability, and I believe he is the deserving favorite in this race. However, this is the toughest test of his career, and it’s unclear if he’ll be better stretching out to 9 furlongs. Furthermore, the lack of pace in this race could work against him again. While Raging Bull may be the more talented horse, I prefer Up the Ante today. This Christophe Clement trainee figures to have everything go his way for the rematch with the favorite. He’s drawn perfectly down inside, which should allow him to exploit his early pace advantage. Horses such as Golden Brown and Sand Dancer have some speed, but neither is likely to seriously challenge Up the Ante for the front. When this chestnut son of Smart Strike gets into a rhythm, as he did in his two turf starts at Belmont, he is capable of producing a devastating late kick. Even Raging Bull, who can finish with a flourish, was unable to make a dent in the latest stages of the Manila. There is no rain in the forecast for the two days leading up to Saturday and being on the lead down inside can be a huge advantage in turf races at the end of the meet.

RACE 10: CATHERINETHEGREAT (#4)
This Spinaway drew a fantastic field for a summer 2-year-old stakes, and the quality is bolstered by the presence Chasing Yesterday, who ships in for trainer Bob Baffert. This highly regarded half-sister to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah was bet down to 3-10 favoritism in her debut. She absolutely dominated a field of Del Mar maidens in fast time, earning a field-best 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Based on that performance, and given the stellar recent record of the Bob Baffert / Mike Smith combination in New York, she’s likely to go off as the favorite in this race. I’m using her, but there are some talented local fillies to consider, led by Schuylerville winner Catherinethegreat. I was thoroughly impressed by this filly’s win on opening day, as she blasted out of the gate from the inside post position, fended off all challenges, and strongly kicked for home in the stretch. The track was playing pretty quickly, but she stopped the clock in an impressive final time and earned a respectable 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure, elevated due to the fast early pace. She’s one of the most experienced members of the field, which counts for a lot in a race like this, and the game plan figures to be much the same this time. Despite the deep field, I’m not sure that anyone is quite as fast as this filly early. The 7 furlongs is a question mark, but she’s bred to handle more ground and I think she’s a major threat to take down her second stakes. I would also use Nonna Madeline, who was hindered by a poor start in the Schuylerville. She clearly has talent, but she’ll be up against it if she breaks poorly again.

RACE 11: KURILOV (#7)
There are some familiar names in this Woodward field, but most are trying to rekindle their careers following lulls or layoffs. Gunnevera may go favored, as he comes into this prestigious event with one of the most convincing résumés. If he runs back to his effort in last year’s Travers, he’s a top threat to win this race. He’s coming into his Saratoga return in similar fashion, as he also used a softer Gulfstream prep off a layoff prior to coming here last year. While he clearly has talent, the pace of this race could be a major problem for him. He’s a one-run deep closer, and he finds himself in a mostly paceless race. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, but most of the potential early leaders are drawn in outside post positions, a distinct disadvantage at this distance. That combination of factors makes it anyone’s guess as to who makes the front in here. Seeking the Soul ran nearly as well as Gunnevera in the Pegasus World Cup after winning the Clark last year. He comes into this race in similar fashion, off a prep against lesser company at Indiana Downs, and appears poised to have a strong second half of the season. However, he’s yet another closer in this field who will have to work out a trip from off the pace. I’m interested in some horses with more tactical speed. One of those is Sunny Ridge, who gets tested for class. He’s in good form, but it will be hard for him to get over from post 12. My top pick is Kurilov. At first glance, he doesn’t appear to be good enough to win this race, but I think he’s run better than it seems in his dirt starts. That was especially true last time, when he moved to the lead too soon in the Alydar before drifting down to a dead rail for the final quarter mile. I believe dirt is his preferred surface and he has the tactical speed to get the jump on the aforementioned closers.

RACE 12: ONTHEMOONAGAIN (#3)
Santa Monica is a formidable favorite in this spot off her visually impressive score in the Dance Smartly at Woodbine. She unleashed an eye-catching burst of speed once steered into the clear by Jose Ortiz, easily overhauling most of the field before tackling her stablemate Inflexibility in the final eighth of a mile. It briefly appeared as if Inflexibility would put up a fight, but Santa Monica asserted her superiority and won with something in reserve. The stretch-out to 12 furlongs should only help her, as she was a Group 3 winner over this distance in Ireland and she won her U.S. debut going this trip. She just hasn’t run a bad race in this country, as she even put forth a strong late rally two back when she was hindered by a slow pace. I would not recommend taking a strong stance against her, but I do think her stablemate Onthemoonagain may be a viable alternative. Everyone saw the trouble that she had in that Aug. 2 allowance race, as Javier Castellano made the controversial decision to try to come up the rail on a heavy favorite. It clearly didn’t work out as she had nowhere to come and had to steady a couple of times before backing out of there. Despite that disappointing result, she at least got in her prep race. Now Chad Brown is stretching her out in distance, which is probably going to help her. Racing in France, she was best over 10 furlongs, so the 1 3/8 miles of this race over an American course should not be an issue. This filly hinted at having serious talent in some of her races as a 3-year-old and I’m pretty sure that we didn’t see the best version of her last time. Since that race, she has been working very strongly in the mornings, and I think she’s a serious threat to pull off the minor upset.

Picks & Plays for Friday, August 31

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 2:   3 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 3:   7 - 3 - 4 - 1A
Race 4:   6 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 5:   6 - 4 - 8 - 5
Race 6:   3 - 8 - 2 - 7
Race 7:   6 - 8 - 7 - 5
Race 8:   7 - 10 - 8 - 4
Race 9:   8 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 10:   2 - 5 - 9 - 4

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: BANKER’S ISLAND (#3)
Chad Brown will be heavily favored to complete the early double, as his Chiclet’s Dream is a prohibitive favorite in the first, and Apartfromthecrowd figures to be bet down to odds-on status in this spot. I’m not going to argue with anyone who asserts that Apartfromthecrowd is just better than this field, as he has run against significantly tougher company in all of his races. He returned on the turf at Monmouth last time, but he’s arguably been better on the dirt. Yet, given those solid performances, it seems a bit hasty for the connections to completely give up on this once-promising runner. I think it’s also worth noting that a few of his faster speed figures from the winter of 2017 were aided by favorable track profiles. I’m always a little wary of taking closers that are dropping down like this and I think this could be a vulnerable favorite. If I’m going to beat this horse, I want to do it on the front end, so I’m taking a shot with the speedy Banker’s Island. I thought this gelding’s performance going this distance last time was actually bit better than it appears. Manny Franco sent him to the front from the outside post position that day, but then he allowed him to drop back in behind horses on the backstretch. From there, he ended up getting shuffled back on the turn behind tiring runners, yet he actually finished up decently once in the clear late. He strikes me as a horse that wants to go this distance, and I like that he’s drawn inside of his main pace rival Playwright.

RACE 5: STELLAR AGENT (#6)
Quiet Company and Paradise Returned were intended to debut over this surface on July 26, and they were both left in when the race was rained off. Quiet Company ran the better race that day, which isn’t totally surprising given her versatile pedigree. She should be just fine switching to grass, but Paradise Returned figures to take a bigger step forward, as her pedigree is strongly geared toward turf. Her dam has produced three turf winners, and she’s by solid turf sire Speightstown. I’m using both of these fillies, but there are some interesting first-time starters to consider. Lady Grace figures to attract plenty of support off a solid work tab. Her best half-sibling is dirt Grade 1 winner Sis City, but she’s also a half-sister to three turf winners, and she’s by top turf-sprint sire Kantharos. She looked good working a furlong in 10 seconds flat at the OBS sale, and her more recent morning drills have been impressive. She’s definitely on my tickets, but the one who interests me, potentially at a better price, is Stellar Agent. This filly also has enough turf pedigree as a daughter of More Than Ready out of a dam who has produced a turf winner. Her sales work wasn’t quite as quick as that of Lady Grace, but she also appears to be working well on the dirt for this race. Jorge Abreu has done very good work with his firsters in a limited sample.

RACE 8: NAPLES PRINCESS (#7)
I’m certainly not against Dancing All Night in this spot, as she has run well enough to win at this level in both Saratoga starts this summer. I thought she did well to duel her main pace rival into defeat before just getting run down by the closing winner on July 20. Then last time, she was hindered right from the start when she got squeezed back a few strides out of the gate. Considering that she prefers to race in a stalking position, she did well to make an early move into contention and still finish up decently. I’m definitely using her, but she’s going to be a short price once again, and there are some other fillies to consider who could get ignored in what is a fairly confusing race. There appears to be some pace in here, as Wisconsin Night and Catoria are sure to show speed from the inside and horses like Layla and Danyelli should be in hot pursuit. The Pace Projector is predicting that the race will feature a fast early pace, and that figures to benefit Naples Princess. Based on this filly’s two starts this year, she has returned as an improved 4-year-old. While she did get some pace to close into in her return two back, she nevertheless made a strong late bid despite having to come through on the rail. I thought her most recent start at Saratoga was an encouraging step forward off that, as she did well to close for third in a race that featured a fairly moderate early pace. The winner of that race, Dream Pauline, is a talented stakes-bound filly, and I’m not sure there are any others of that caliber in this race.

RACE 10: TIMELESS BEAUTY (#2)
I’m not giving out anything particularly clever here, but I just think Timeless Beauty is the right horse to take in this finale as the potential slight favorite. Robertino Diodoro does very well with his claims in these cheaper races. Over the past five years, he is 10 for 31 (32 percent, $2.22 ROI) first off the claim for tags of $25,000 or less in dirt sprints at NYRA. I thought this filly had some ability when she was racing last winter for Gary Contessa, but she seemed like a slower, lumbering type without much speed. In her first start back of the layoff, I was encouraged to see her show a lot more early speed in her return last time, and she still showed that kick in the lane. The stretch-out to 7 furlongs can only help her, and she figures to work out a good trip here if she shows that same tactical speed that was on display on Aug. 3. Her main rivals are Heaven’s Creation and Problem Solving, but neither one of those does much for me.

Picks & Plays for Thursday, August 30

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 2:   12 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 3:   1 - 6 - 2
Race 4:   1 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 5:   5 - 6 - 1 - 7
Race 6:   15 - 2 - 14 - 4
Race 7:   2 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 8:   12 - 8 - 10 - 1
Race 9:   7 - 1 - 10 - 8
Race 10:   2 - 1A - 10 - 7

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: GYPSY JO (#4)
The primary contenders in this race exit a similar spot on Aug. 2, won by longshot Archumybaby. Satin Sheets and My Won Love are the two that figure to attract support out of their efforts that day. Satin Sheets obviously ran well, as she rated kindly behind horses in a tight pack through the early stages and rallied up the rail to take a short lead at midstretch. She ultimately got outdueled to the wire by the winner, but it was yet another solid performance from this consistent filly as she seems to be holding her form well for the new barn. My Won Love saved no ground while going four wide around the far turn. She reached a contending position at the top of the stretch and just couldn’t go on with the top two late. She’s also in good form, and she clearly fits at this level. I’m using both of them, but the filly that intrigues me most out of that race is Gypsy Jo. I liked her last time, and she did not get the trip that I was hoping for. This filly has run best when she can be forwardly placed, and she was never able to get into that position after breaking a bit slowly. She ended up getting put into a tight spot between horses at the back of the pack, and she had to steady off runners’ heels when searching for room at the quarter pole. That was her first race off a three-month layoff, and she has a right to be sharper for this second start back. I know she looks a bit cheaper than some others in here, but she actually ran well enough to win this three back on April 13 when earning a 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure, one of the highest numbers in the field. Today, the Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner.

RACE 8: STONEFACTOR (#12)
If Hannah’s Smile draws into this race, she is obviously the horse to beat. I don’t mind the cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs for her, and she has simply run well enough to win at this level in both of her starts in 2018. She was too close to a fast pace two back and understandably tired late. Then last time she was in position to win but had trouble closing as the winner floated her out through the lane. I wouldn’t be too concerned about the layoff since her last race since she’s been rained off the turf a number of times. The only issue with her, and other short prices in this race, is the overall lack of speed in this field. I think that makes Stonefactor very dangerous on the front end. I know that it’s not easy for a speed to break from the outside post position, but Kendrick Carmouche is going to be intent on making the front and she just appears to be faster than horses like Citizen Matzo and Lulu’s Pom Pom. If he can get her over to the hedge in the early going, I think she’ll be tough to run down. I know her speed figures are bit slower than those of Hannah’s Smile, but she actually ran better than it seems in some of her 2-year-old races, and her last performance on the dirt suggests that she may still be improving. At bigger prices, I also would consider Spa Treatment, who has had a number of tough trips on the turf, and Baronet, who was eased last time and may appreciate turning back in distance.

RACE 10: DARK OPS (#2)
There are many contenders to consider in this wide-open maiden race. Suas may go off as the favorite, despite having lost at short prices in two straight starts at Belmont. I thought he ran well two back when making the first move into a fast pace, but his last race was somewhat disappointing. He had little answer for the winner late, and now he’s stepping up into arguably the toughest field he’s ever faced. Charlton Baker has entered a pair, of which Ready Escape appears to be the stronger half of the entry. He showed promise despite racing greenly in his debut, and then showed improvement second out when finishing behind the once-promising A True Giant. However, it’s taken him a long time to get back to the races since then and he’s been gelded in the interim. I’m using these two, but the one that I want to bet in this spot is Dark Ops. This colt is making his belated 3-year-old debut and now goes out for Jeremiah Englehart’s barn. He was clearly well-regarded heading into his debut last summer as he got bet down to 6-5 favoritism in a tough maiden race. He ran well that day, but never stepped forward in his subsequent starts. He did show some signs of life going a mile Oct. 19, but it appeared that he didn’t really get the distance in either start at a mile. I think he’s starting back at the right distance, and he’s worked very forwardly in the mornings leading up to this return to the races.

Picks & Plays for Wednesday, August 29

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 3 - 5 - 7
Race 2:   2 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 3:   10 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 4:   1/1A - 8 - 6 - 7
Race 5:   3 - 6 - 7 - 1
Race 6:   8 - 1A - 4 - 5
Race 7:   6 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 8:   9 - 11 - 7 - 5
Race 9:   8 - 9 - 7 - 2
Race 10:   3 - 5 - 7 - 9

TOP PLAYS

RACE 3: STREET PASSION (#10)
I suppose Anne Dupree is going to attract some support in this race as she goes out for trainer Jonathan Thomas, whose runners usually take some money. She’s run some of the fastest turf speed figures in the field, but all of those efforts came around two turns, and I’m highly skeptical of her turning all the way back to 5 1/2 furlongs. She does have speed on the bottom side of her pedigree, since her dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 Test winner Victory Ride. However, she’s a daughter of Curlin who has run her best races setting slow paces going longer distances, and now she’s likely to be outrun in the early going. The runner with the best turf sprint form is No Deal, who was a fast-closing second in a similar spot earlier in the meet. I think her connections have finally found the right class level for her, and I think she makes sense even though she’s had more chances than anyone else. I’m using her, but I think this is a race where we need to consider the first-time starters. A Bit of Mischief may take some money for Joe Sharp, who is always dangerous with his turf sprinters. However, this one doesn’t have much turf pedigree aside from whatever grass ability she inherits from her versatile sire. I’ll use her defensively, but the one that really interests me is Street Passion, who ships up from the Fair Hill Training Center for Mike Trombetta. This homebred is bred to excel in this kind of spot, since she’s a daughter of solid turf sprint sire Street Magician, and her dam was best racing on grass. Notably, her dam is also a half-sister to Thieves Guild, who won the Caress Stakes going 5 1/2 furlongs up here a few years ago. This barn can get one ready to fire in its debut and it’s a good sign to see Jose Ortiz take the mount.

RACE 5: MORE MISCHIEF (#3)
The horse to beat is obviously Chillinwithfriends, who comes out of one of the better New York-bred maiden races that have been run at this meet. We have seen a couple of horses come back out of that race to win, including the runner-up Elegant Zip, who beat the highly regarded Tossup in her second start. Chillinwithfriends was away in good order, but she was briefly shuffled back heading down the backstretch and found herself about 7 lengths off the pace. Once Irad Ortiz asked her to go, she launched a sustained wide run and continued closing on the top two in the lane in a race where no one else made up ground. I was impressed with the performance and I think it will take a pretty good filly to beat her. Unfortunately for her, she may have a serious rival in More Mischief. This Chad Brown filly was bet like she couldn’t lose in her debut. The workout reports heading into that race were stellar and her 2-year-old sales workout was fast and effortless. She appeared to be traveling fine down the backstretch, but she quickly came off the bridle and spit the bit at the quarter pole. I’m going to hope that the sloppy track was her undoing because she ran almost too poorly to be believed. She has come back out of that race and continued to look like a talented filly in the morning, so I’m going to assume that we see a much better performance out of her over a dry track. She’s my top pick, but I would also use Mary’s Girl, who comes out of the same race. She broke about 2 lengths slowly and actually ran quite well to get up for third after making an early move into contention.

RACE 7: LUCKY MOVE (#6)
I’m hardly against Fair Regis, who is simply the most reliable option in a race full of fillies that need to prove they’re capable of winning at this level. I don’t want to be too hard on her for her loss last time because Satisfy, the filly that beat her, is very talented and would be a heavy favorite in this spot. She’s proven her ability to win races and Robert Falcone Jr. has demonstrated that he can keep horses like this in form. I’m not enamored with any of the fillies exiting the race won by Take Charge Aubrey. I think the winner has talent, but no one behind her did a ton of running and I think they’re all meeting a tougher foe in Fair Regis this time. The filly that intrigues me in this spot is one of the new faces, Lucky Move. There are plenty of things to like about this Kentucky shipper. She is getting a significant trainer upgrade, as she moves from the stable of John Hancock, who gets just a 39 TimeformUS Trainer Rating, to the barn of Jeremiah Englehart, a 94-rated trainer overall. Her speed figures don’t look quite as fast as those of Fair Regis, but she has actually kept solid company in all of her recent dirt starts and is arguably getting some class relief as she makes her first start against New York-breds. The distance is a question mark since she’s never sprinted, but Jeremiah Englehart has great numbers with turnbacks, and she showed some speed in a recent drill over the Oklahoma training track, apparently in company with stakes winner Aveenu Malcainu.

RACE 8: AVEENU MALCAINU (#9)
Stretch’s Stone is probably the horse to beat in this competitive allowance optional claiming race for New York-breds. Despite being offered up for a tag when he returned from the lengthy layoff earlier this year, he returned looking like much the same horse that he was as a 3-year-old. While he has lost at this level twice in a row, he was facing a particularly tough field two back when finishing behind the vastly improved Runaway Lute. He’s not really a two-turn horse so I can forgive his last race, and now he’s just back in the right spot. I’m using him, but I’m interested in a couple of runners exiting the Mike Lee Stakes at Belmont. Aveenu Malcainu was the favorite that day and he disappointed, fading to finish fifth after contesting the pace. It was yet another race in which he spit the bit in the stretch and refused to finish. Noticing this trend, Jeremiah Englehart performed throat surgery on him following that most recent effort, in an attempt to open up his airways. He has reportedly trained well since then, and now he’s getting back to the venue that produced his two best performances. He’s hard to fully trust, but he has reporatedly trained well into this race. His connections are apparently looking to give him a bit of a confidence boost, as he clearly possesses ability. I also wouldn’t totally dismiss the other horse coming out of the Mike Lee. May 28 at Belmont was a day that strongly favored outside paths and hindered horses that raced down on the rail. Ultimateenticement was dueling inside before fading, and deserves another chance coming out of that race, as his prior two efforts indicated that he had improved as a 3-year-old.

RACE 9: OPRY (#8)
Swamp Rat and Somelikeithotbrown may vie for favoritism in this With Anticipation. The former is the only horse in this race that has performed well against stakes company, having finished a closing second in the Skidmore just 12 days ago. That was his first start in two months, so it’s possible that he could move forward coming out of that performance. He doesn’t strike me as a one-dimensional sprint type, since he relaxes early in his races and can produce a powerful finish. He’s certainly bred to get more ground, since he’s by versatile turf sire Hat Trick and comes from a stamina-oriented female family. Somelikeithotbrown is the one that is committed to running in this race off his visually impressive score going 9 furlongs earlier in the meet. It’s difficult to make a speed figure for the race since it was run at an incorrect distance, but he still ran very well. I’m using both of these favorites, but the horse that interests me most is Opry. Todd Pletcher also sends out maiden winner Seanow, but Opry seems like the one with more upside. He was meant for turf in his debut but participated anyway when the race was rained off the grass. It didn’t come up as a particularly fast race, but I thought this horse put in a game effort, as he was trying hard to catch the top two over a surface that he didn’t appear to relish. Now he moves to turf and he is certainly bred to handle the surface. His versatile sire Declaration of War was a multiple Group 1 winner on turf, and this colt is a half-brother to a turf winner while his dam is a half-sister to a Grade 3 winner on turf. If he can break more sharply this time, I would like to see him work out a more forwardly-placed trip in a race that doesn’t feature an abundance of early speed.

RACE 10: BERNARDINO (#3)
I suppose Pirelli Tower is the horse to beat, but I could never bet this horse off his thoroughly disappointing effort on July 14. He got an absolutely perfect trip that day and had no answer whatsoever when called upon in the lane. Of those with turf experience, Jimmy Jazz seems like one of the better options. He stalked a fast pace that fell apart when last seen on June 20, and he’s been gelded since then. He also gets a rider upgrade to Joe Bravo for this race. I would also use The Sheik of Araby at a price, since he has some pedigree to take to this surface. However, this seems like a good spot to check out some first time starters. The one likely to attract the most attention is High Conviction for Chad Brown. This horse looked good working a furlong in 10 1/15 seconds at the OBS Sale as a 2-year-old, but he has only trained moderately well more recently on dirt. I’m using him, but the one that I want to bet is Bernardino. This horse is certainly bred to handle grass as a son of Paddy O’Prado, and there’s a ton of grass pedigree on his dam’s side. He’s a half-brother to New York-bred turf winners Given Fire and Manofffire – both primarily sprinters – but the Paddy O’Prado influence suggests that he should appreciate more ground. Jorge Abreu has done very good work with his first time starters in just under 2 years of training (5 for 23, 22 percent, $2.80 ROI). This one has trained well over the dirt in the morning, and he drew a great post position for this unveiling.

Picks & Plays for Monday, August 27

by David Aragona

Get TimeformUS Betting Strategies for the entire week – including TimeformUS PPs for all Saratoga Racecards run this week! Learn more ›

PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 2:   5 - 9 - 4 - 8
Race 3:   2 - 1/1A - 8 - 4
Race 4:   2 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 5:   5 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 6:   4 - 6 - 9 - 3
Race 7:   3 - 5 - 9 - 1
Race 8:   3 - 7 - 1 - 9
Race 9:   8 - 6 - 1 - 11

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: RED ZINGER (#3)
Just Right and Red Zinger finished a nose apart when they last met in an Aug. 6 maiden race, and they figure to be evenly matched in the wagering for this race. Just Right did well to rebound from his disappointing Belmont debut, in which he appeared to be unfocused while never lifting a hoof. Blinkers clearly got his mind on running last time. He chased a legitimate pace and held on well to be second, but the race was dominated by horses who raced toward the front end throughout. Given the race flow, I thought that Red Zinger actually ran the better race. Red Zinger was off a touch slowly and had to rush up into position early. While he never threatened the winner, I thought he did well to make up ground toward the end while rallying wide. It was a good step forward off his debut, in which he finished behind La Fuerza in the Rockville Centre after racing greenly. He strikes me as one who will continue improving with added distance, and I think he possesses more early speed than he’s shown in his two starts thus far.

RACE 3: BIG MISCHIEF (#2)
I’m not against either half of the Klaravich Stables entry. Merger Arbitrage is the one to beat, but she also has some questions to answer as she returns from a layoff dating back to last November. I’m not in love with her turf form overall, but she did hit her best stride when she was last seen in her final two starts of 2017. She’s going to attract plenty of support, and her price will be driven down even moreso by the presence of stablemate Supercommittee. This Rick Violette trainee fits at the level, and showed good versatility when rallying from well off the pace to be second last time. You can’t dismiss either one, but I hate picking entries like this at underlaid prices. I find many of the alternatives with prior turf experience tough to take, so I’m going with a first time turfer. Big Mischief showed a little ability in her debut at Monmouth, as she rallied determinedly to be third after dropping back around the far turn. She never changed leads in the stretch that day, but she still finished up reasonably well. I acknowledge that this filly doesn’t possess any significant turf pedigree to speak of in her female family, but she is a daughter of solid turf influence Into Mischief out of a Rock Hard Ten dam. That’s good enough for me, and Chad Brown actually has great numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 5 for 14 with horses making their turf debuts while dropping into the maiden claiming ranks for the first time, and he is 3 for 4 ($7.80 ROI) doing it at Saratoga.

RACE 5: WITH EXULTATION (#5)
Mobridge is obviously the horse to beat despite losing his last start. Four runners come out of that July 12 race and return here, so it’s worth analyzing a few of the trips. Mobridge clearly should have won, as he made his typical premature, wide move to the lead on the turn. However, this time, instead of going on to a decisive win, he got to wandering about in the last eighth, and his drifting allowed Vincento to sneak up inside and grab the victory. Vincento is also a top contender here, but I feel that he was the beneficiary of circumstances last time and he will need to run better to beat Mobridge again. Danny Gargan claimed Mobridge out of that race and he’s shown he can be successful with turf runners in this situation. I’m definitely using him, but the horse that interests me most out of the July 12 race is With Exultation. This horse has run plenty of speed figures that would put him in the winner’s circle against this bunch, but he had trouble getting back into top form when he initially returned in 2018. Even though he failed to hit the board again last time, I think he took a step in the right direction. With Exultation was racing inside of Vincento in a tight spot along the rail for much of his trip. Yet, unlike the winner’s trip, things just never opened up for him in the lane. Jose Ortiz tried to angle him inside of the tiring speeds at the eight pole, but that quickly closed up and he was forced to steady to the wire. I recall NYRA paddock analyst Maggie Wolfendale feeling that With Exultation was finally starting to come around prior to that last race, and it’s possible he just never got the chance to show it. This time, he should get an honest pace to close into, and he’s run very well at Saratoga before. The other horse that I want to use prominently with my top pick is Changewilldoyagood. He may simply be faster than the other speeds in this field, and he gets an appropriate drop in class after running fairly well against tougher fields at Belmont.

RACE 6: DR. SHANE (#4)
This is among the most competitive races on the card, as you can make solid cases for almost all of the entrants in this 10-horse field. Bam Bam Blu may go favored after winning his turf debut against starter-allowance company in his most recent start. While he was beating a weaker field that day, he certainly did it the right way, forging past the loose-on-the-lead runner-up in the late stages. He’s a robust 6-yearold who appears physically capable of taking on tougher company. I’m using him, but others figure to offer better value. Stolen Pistol drops out of a salty 3-year-old stakes race, but I wish he had shown a stronger closing kick. If he can run back to his prior win at Belmont, he has a chance. A few of these contested the July 30 race at this level, and I think Pagliacci is the one you want out of that event. He had to wait for running room at the top of the stretch and had to alter course a few times while rallying. I’m using him, but I’m somewhat concerned about the pace of this race. While a few of these possess tactical speed, no one is as fast as Dr. Shane in the early going. This New York-bred will be making just his second start against open company, but I think he lands in a favorable spot. He ran well going this distance twice last summer despite not employing his favored aggressive running style on either occasion. I think shorter distances are better for him, and his dominant win going seven furlongs two back just speaks to how much he has improved under the care of Danny Gargan. Kendrick Carmouche will be taking no prisoners on the front end, and that approach has been very dangerous with the rails set at zero feet.

RACE 8: COMBATANT (#3)
This is one difficult handicapping puzzle. You have so many horses trying turf for the first time, coming off layoffs, or exiting poor performances. I suppose the classy Strike Power is the likely favorite as he makes his turf debut. On the surface, this looks like a good spot for him, as he won’t have to face the speedy Promises Fulfilled and he’s getting some class relief. He certainly has the pedigree to handle grass since he’s by Speightstown and is out of a dam who was best going long on turf. He seemed to take to the surface well in a recent workout over the Oklahoma course. I’m not against him in this spot, but he seems almost too obvious, and I don’t want to default to a horse like that just because the race is confusing. Rose’s Vision has run well while keeping solid company at Woodbine. He appears to handle turf and synthetic surfaces equally well, but I just get the sense that we’ve seen the best of him, and his best isn’t necessarily good enough to win this race. Three runners exit the Grade 2 Hall of Fame on Aug. 3. That race was run over a legitimately yielding turf course, as some handled the going and others did not. Furthermore, that was just a much tougher spot than this one, as the top four finishers in that race are all pretty talented horses. I think the horse you’re supposed to take out of that race is Combatant. Gidu set a legitimate pace as he basically ran off in the early going. It’s always difficult for the chasers in that situation, and Combatant was in the unenviable position of chasing three wide without cover. I thought he did well to reach contention at the top of the stretch before just flattening out in the late stages. As a son of Scat Daddy, he certainly had a right to not care for the yielding going. He’s bred to handle turf, and I think we’ll get a better performance out of him on a firm course. Furthermore, I’ve always thought that shorter distances might be better for him, so I like this slight cutback to a mile.

RACE 9: MARGIE CAT (#8)
Let’s say right off the bat that if Corey Scores draws into this race from the also-eligible list, she is clearly the horse to beat. For now, let’s assume that’s not the case. There are a number of first time starters from which to choose in this race but none possess overwhelming turf pedigrees. The one that interests me most is Short Pour, who is a daughter of good turf influence The Factor, and is out of dam that did best on synthetic and turf. This horse appears to be working reasonably well over the dirt for her debut, and it’s a positive sign that Jose Ortiz is named to ride. Among those with experience, I suppose Evan’s Nice Now can switch surfaces, and she actually showed some good speed in her debut. However, others appeal more at better prices. The one that I want to bet is Margie Cat. While she didn’t do any serious running in her debut, she performed like a horse that was struggling with the dirt. She has a quick, lawn-mower-like action to her stride, and that’s often indicative of a horse that will appreciate sprinting on turf. She certainly has the pedigree to handle this switch since she is a half-sister to Ghost Giant, who improved when switched to turf. Furthermore, there is plenty of turf breeding in her second generation, as her second dam was Grade 1-placed on this surface.