TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs. Have a question about a specific feature in TimeformUS? Ask DRF ai.

PLAYS

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.

RACE 1
#7 COLD AS HELL, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 4
#4 STRAPPED, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 6
#9 LADY JASMINE, at 10-1 or greater

RACE 8
#9 KENNY BE, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 9
#3 DAISY FLYER, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 10
#1 BAEZA, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 11
#4 TAHILA, at 4-1 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs. Have a question about a specific feature in TimeformUS? Ask DRF ai.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

I'm not a big fan of Miss Im Pulsive (#1), who is sure to attract support off her only dirt race. She earned a speed figure in that debut that makes her a logical player before the connections decided on a failed turf experiment last time out. I just have some concerns about the overall upside for this daughter of Into Mischief. Despite her pedigree, she doesn't look like a horse typical of those bloodlines. She's very small, and has a quick, choppy action that makes me a little concerned about her ability to stretch out to this 6 1/2 furlong distance. The alternative that many handicappers will find most intriguing is first time starter Manhattan Beauty (#5), one of two fillies debuting for trainer Bill Mott. It seems like they've worked together a few times, but this daughter of Union Rags has the more appealing overall profile. Her second dam is the Grade 1 placed sprinter Prospective Saint, and she showed some quality in videos of her working up here last summer. Junior Alvarado lands here, and Mott can certainly win with an older first time starter. I just want to get a little more creative with a different wild card. Accelerated News (#4) has only competed on synthetic and turf so far, which is a little strange since her pedigree is geared most strongly towards dirt. Her dam won going a mile on dirt, and Accelerate is a better dirt influence than anything else. She's also run better than it might appear in a few of her recent starts. She got a crazy wide trip on debut, running far better than the bare result indicates. She got another wide trip in February, and then seemed to respond well to the turnback last time, closing into a slow pace behind a talented winner. She's recently been switched into the barn of Melanie Giddings, and has been working well for the new stable.

Fair Value:
#4 ACCELERATED NEWS, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 2

The two likely favorites Killy Start (#2) and Spring Magic (#4) are exiting the same starter allowance race, in which they finished less than a length apart while well beaten in sixth and seventh. Killy Start possesses the stronger overall recent form, but she regressed coming to Saratoga last time, ridden into the race after getting off a step slowly, and lacking any late punch. She's getting minor class relief as she drops back in for a tag, but her lack of early speed is concern in a race that doesn't feature much pace. Spring Magic can at least be more forward, as she was last time when chasing a fast pace in a race that ultimately fell apart. I'm willing to upgrade that effort, and her overall form prior to that had been heading in the right direction. She's a major player with Prat taking over. My top pick is another horse that can be forwardly placed at a better price. Altered Shot (#3) has to prove that she belongs at his level after losing for $12,500 last time. Yet she had competed against tougher foes for Joe Sharp last year, and won for $25k at Keeneland as recently as April. Her form obviously fell apart for the new connections, but she didn't want to go a mile and was run off her feet behind the superior Shesalittle Edgy two back, so there have been excuses. She finally rebounded last time, and hung on well, battling into deep stretch after contesting an honest pace. She figures to be forward again here, and this barn has had success moving horses up in class.

Fair Value:
#3 ALTERED SHOT, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 3

I didn't want to settle for short prices on any of the logical runners in this race. I thought about just defaulting to the first time starter Sharon Horizons (#1), who obviously has plenty of pedigree for turf. Yet Chad Brown doesn't have particularly strong statistics with horses debuting for maiden claiming tags, and she's going to be a very short price merely due to connections and pedigree. Ashes and Diamonds (#4) goes out for the dangerous Joe Sharp barn, but it's unclear if she's really a turf horse after she didn't do much running in her lone grass attempt as a 2-year-old. She did work reasonably well on the Oklahoma turf last week, and it's wise to respect anything Joe Sharp is sending out right now. I just don't see her offering much value. Bourbon Milk Punch (#5) was disappointing when dropped in for a tag last time, and just doesn't appear to be moving in a positive direction. Athaliah (#6) got a wide trip last time, and ran well enough to be competitive here two back. Yet she was ridden by Flavien Prat that day, and now gets Eric Cancel, who is just 1 for 49 ($0.23 ROI) riding for George Weaver at Saratoga over 5 years. I'll take a shot against these with first time turfer Bedford the Brave (#3). Omaha Beach is a solid 12% turf sire, and this is the only foal from an unraced dam. Yet there is turf pedigree going back through this female family, since second dam Moyne Abbey was a turf horse who has produced runners who handle grass. This is also the female family of turf stakes winners Gulch Approval and Rusty Slipper. She didn't do much running on debut, but she's dropping into a softer spot and can improve on this surface.

Fair Value:
#3 BEDFORD THE BRAVE, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 7

There's plenty of guesswork to be done in this maiden special weight for 2-year-old fillies with so many runners making their debuts. Even those with experience are trying something new, stretching out around two turns for the first time. I'm inclined to go against the horses who ran well sprinting on turf first time out, Maiora (#4) and Ms Daredevil (#8). George Weaver does much better with his sprinting two-year-olds, and Maiora struck me as one that was better suited to shorter races on debut. Ms Daredevil did close well after a poor start first time out, but she had the quick-striding action of a sprinter, and is by a sire who does much better with his turf sprinters. Pan Pan (#7) is a little more convincing for the stretch-out as she tries turf for the first time. She has pedigree for this surface, and goes out for a barn that has had success here in the past. I'm still more interested in the first time starters. Chad Brown sends out a pair, of which Red Violet (#6) has the better overall pedigree, though both are bred well for turf. The Don Alberto homebred is by very good turf sire Justify out of a turf-winning dam who has produced 4 turf winners including stakes winner Rubilinda. She also appears to be training better of the two for her unveiling. Time to Dream (#2B) would be more interesting if she weren't part of an entry, but I like Not This Time as a turf and debut influence, and she seemed to get over the grass very well in her July 27 turf workout with her entrymate. My top pick is Curly Q Girl (#3), who will break from the rail in her career debut. Curlin is known as more of a dirt sire, but does quite well with his turf runners. The dam was Grade 2-placed on grass, and has produced a 3-time turf winner. Yet what I really like are the workouts for this filly. She seemed to handle turf well in her June 30 Oklahoma drill, and then held her own against the promising Star Actress in her next dirt work. Bill Mott can win with firsters up here, and she drew well inside with the temporary rails down.

Fair Value:
#3 CURLY Q GIRL, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 8

Neither favorite does a whole lot for me in this $35k maiden claimer. Sheer Will (#3) drops in for a tag on dirt for the first time in her career after failing to handle turf last time. She's run speed figures in her prior starts against tougher company on dirt that make her very competitive here. She just doesn't possess that much early speed, and she's reacted badly to kickback in some prior starts, which could be even more of an issue moving to Saratoga. Darty Time (#6) is even less convincing, and she figures to take money shipping in from Kentucky for Al Stall. She did display good speed on debut, but had nothing left for the stretch drive. She cuts back a bit and drops in class, but her turf workout on July 14 concerns me. The mere fact that she drilled over grass makes it seem like Stall was thinking about switching away from dirt, and the visual of that work is less than encouraging since she was trying to lug out badly on the turns. She's not for me, and I'd rather take a horse like Cara's Chianti (#4), who at least showed some dirt ability on debut before tailing off. My top pick is Circuit Court (#7), who is the only filly in this field actually moving up in class. That usually isn't the most attractive move at Saratoga, but she did face a decent field for the level last time. The winner and runner-up both came back to record improved TimeformUS Speed Figures in their next starts, and Circuit Court was arguably best after having to wait for room on the turn and alter course inside in the stretch. Her debut at Gulfstream wasn't great, but she did get a wide trip, and she seemed far more engaged with that experience under her belt last time. Her former trainer is serving a suspension, and that figures to only drive up the price on a filly who gets a rider upgrade for this.

Fair Value:
#7 CIRCUIT COURT, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 9

The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario favoring frontrunners in this Grade 2 Amsterdam, and it's pretty clear that Macho Music (#1) is quick enough to make the lead if he wants it. This horse possesses a ton of early speed, and used frontrunning tactics successfully when dominating the Pat Day Mile on Kentucky Derby day. That style didn't work as well for him last time in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens, as he led the field around the far turn but noticeably tired in the late stages while hanging on his left lead. He's now turning back a half-furlong and facing a slightly softer bunch, which might be enough to put him back in the winner's circle. Yet he figures to be a short price, especially with Irad Ortiz climbing aboard, and I don't fully trust this runner's finishing ability. Among the quartet of horses exiting the Woody Stephens, the one I'm most inclined to upgrade is Gunmetal (#6), who was never in his preferred running position after a poor start. He was buried in traffic for much of the race and eventually gave up, checking in last. He's better than that, but he does still have to prove he can run a top race without using Lasix. T Kraft (#4) is another I would consider from the Woody Stephens, since he outran his odds to hang around for fifth. This horse has continued to improve as a 3-year-old and possesses the tactical speed to sit reasonably close to the pace. My top pick is Smoken Wicked (#3). He's only exiting a listed stakes, but that Maxfield at Churchill drew an incredibly deep lineup, so I don't view this as any meaningful rise in class. He was outrun by winner Verifire through the lane, but that horse could be one of the top choices if he shows up in next month's H. Allen Jerkens. Smoken Wicked pressed an honest pace and held on well for second. I'm willing to forgive his loss to Macho Music in the Pat Day Mile, since he got bounced around at the start and probably doesn't want to go that far. He's generally run well every time he's sprinted, and should be in position to take over from Macho Music if that one falters in the late stages again. He may lack the upside of some others, but his form fits this spot perfectly and he should be a fair price.

Fair Value:
#3 SMOKEN WICKED, at 7-2 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs. Have a question about a specific feature in TimeformUS? Ask DRF ai.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 2

This maiden special weight going 1 3/16 miles on turf features a pretty well-matched field outside of the longshot drawn on the rail. Noble Confessor (#6) could go favored as he drops back into the maiden ranks after facing stakes company in three of his last four starts. He was unlucky to lose the Grade 2 Pilgrim when he first got on turf last fall, and was hardly disgraced when beaten just over two lengths in the Breeders' Cup. He dropped back in against maidens off the layoff in May and settled for second behind a highly-regarded Chad Brown rival. Yet he failed to really step forward on his two-year-old form, and we didn't learn much more about him last time in the off-the-turf Pennine Ridge. He's a major player, but I worry that he could get overbet with Irad regaining the mount. Vintage Vino (#7) has had to settle for minor awards in his last few turf attempts, including when he returned from a layoff earlier this month. He ran pretty well in that comeback, being used far more aggressively than in prior races, pressing the pace before fading. He should have gotten some needed conditioning from that effort, and stretching out to this distance should also suit a horse who showed plenty of stamina in his races last season. A few other contenders are exiting the June 20 race at Aqueduct. Royal's Pride (#3)achieved the best result of those who finished behind Mayor of Midnight that day, but he also got the best trip. He saved ground on the turns, and didn't tip out until he got into the straightaway. The horse I want from that spot is A Bourbon for Toby (#4). This colt has only raced on turf three times, but he's run better than the results suggest in each of those races. He hasn't seen the rail in either of his last couple of starts. He was two-wide early before making the first move while going three-wide run around the far turn. Then last time in the aforementioned June 20 event, he was a bit too keen early and then launched another three-wide run, before getting pushed into the four-path at the quarter pole. He's been a little unlucky, but should have a chance to save more ground with Flavien Prat getting aboard. I believe he'll beat this field if given the right trip.

Fair Value:
#4 A BOURBON FOR TOBY, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 4

New Attitude (#3) is going to be a heavy favorite as she drops in for a tag in the second start of her career. She put in a decent effort at the maiden special weight level on debut, strong enough to suggest she might deserve another chance at that level. Yet instead, she's being risked for this $50k tag in a race where she looks like a standout. Perhaps it makes some sense, since she was only purchased for $90k at Tattersalls. However, she got a very good trip on debut and just failed to produce much of a finish. At the expected price, I could look elsewhere, but there aren't too many obvious alternatives. Classic Cara (#5) ran very well last time, making a wide move on the far turn, but she's a little hard to recommend based on her prior form. I instead want to give a chance to Day Away (#6) getting back on the turf, especially at what figures to be a much better price. She performed well at this level two back, overcoming a 2 to 3-wide trip to finish third in a race where the top two finishers saved more ground. She was badly overmatched in one turf race here last season, and all of her turf efforts prior to that came as a younger horse in Florida. She got some ridiculous rides in a few of those races, so her overall body of work on turf is better than it looks at first glance. I think she has a big chance to outrun her odds here. Perhaps a victory is asking a lot of a filly who is 0 for 14 on the way in, but the price will compensate. In addition to a win bet, I'll definitely use her underneath the favorite.

Fair Value:
#6 DAY AWAY, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 5

Set (#1) should be a clearly defined favorite as he makes his third attempt to break through this state-bred second-level allowance condition. He just missed when returning from a layoff most recently, settling for second when losing a head bob to Waralo. That was going 6 furlongs, and it appeared as if the plan was originally to stretch back out following that return, as he was entered going longer two weeks ago. Yet that race got rained off the grass, and he now shows up here turning back to 5 1/2 furlongs. The distance seems like the main question for this gelding, who had trouble keeping up in the early stages of his races at this distance last summer. Drawing the rail, he has to avoid getting shuffled back out of the gate. He is the one to beat, but I don't want to accept a short price on him. Vacation Dance (#6) finished well behind the favorite last time without much of an excuse. He didn't show much improvement off the trainer switch to Brad Cox, but perhaps he needed the start. He cuts back to arguably his best distance, and looks like a solid contender. The June 22 race that he and others exit featured a pretty slow pace, and I'm more interested in some horses who were compromised by the race flow. One of those is Yarrow (#4), who is looking to get back into form now as a 7-year-old. He did win at this level in his final start of 2024, and has won at this distance in the past. My top pick is Seaver (#3), who has been in two consecutive races where the leaders came home far too fast for him to make a late impact. He's also kept some of the toughest company, chasing home superior rivals in open allowance optional claimers going back to the middle of last year. He does seem to run his best races going these shorter distances, but he's had a little more recent success on synthetic than he has on turf. I still think he's capable of better than he's produced in those last two starts, and now he switches into the barn of Bruce Brown, whose runners have performed well recently.

Fair Value:
#3 SEAVER, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 10

The likely favorites in this $35k conditioned claimer don’t do much for me. Right to Win (#7) will attract support since he's going out for the Chad Brown barn and actually coming off a victory. Yet he had to work hard to beat an inferior field with a perfect trip, and is unlikely to offer any value here. I've been a fan of Hamilton's Way (#9) in the past, and he's finally dropping in class after having gone off form. He fits better at this level, but I still don't like that he's been so dull in his recent starts, and he probably wants to go longer than this. I do think you have to include Mr. Colossal (#13), who gets in off the AE list. Trainer Adam Rice has been one of the most dangerous trainers shipping into Saratoga over the last decade, going 7 for 10 with his turf runners at this meet during his training career. He has to overcome a tough draw, but he should appreciate getting back on turf. Many of the other players come out of two split divisions of a race at this level on June 28. The 7th race on that card was the slower and weaker affair, and the only horse I would really want out of that heat is Doomed (#6). He wasn't going to win, but he didn't get the most comfortable trip, held up briefly at the quarter pole before trying to rally through traffic late. I thought he stepped forward first off the claim for Brad Cox, and he still has plenty of upside in just his fourth career start. The second division, which went as the 10th race, was the stronger of the two. The horse who had the toughest trip in that spot was Rohan (#3), who was legitimately 3 to 4-wide on both turns and still rallied on for third. This horse should appreciate stretching back out to 1 1/8 miles, since he broke his maiden going this far last fall. I just worry that he may not get his preferred pace setup, since there isn't an abundance of speed in this field. That should make my top pick Kid Kreesa (#8) particularly dangerous. He lost a heartbreaker last time when just nailed on the wire by Barnstorming, but the form of that race was flattered when the winner returned to beat a tougher field here last week. While Kid Kreesa did save ground setting the pace that day, he carved out some legitimate fractions and did well to nearly hold on. His 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him the horse to beat, and he's unlikely to be favored going out for these connections. The Pace Projector indicates that he's the clear speed and that running style could be dangerous with the rails going down to 0 feet on the inner turf.

Fair Value:
#8 KID KREESA, at 6-1 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs. Have a question about a specific feature in TimeformUS? Ask DRF ai.

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View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 4

The pair of runners ridden by the Ortiz brothers figure to attract plenty of support in this starter allowance. Gardiner (#2)appears to be a likely favorite as he goes out for the red-hot Joe Sharp barn, but he may not have the easiest trip coming to him. There appears to be plenty of pace signed on in this starter allowance, and Gardiner is one of those that likes to be involved early. He ran well at this level last time at Churchill, but he got a clear lead and didn't have an apparent excuse. Trust Issues (#3) arguably could have finished closer to him had he not been forced to alter course by his drifting neighbor in the lane. Trust Issues owns some of the best prior form of anyone in this field going back to last year, and even the 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned two back could beat this field. I'll be interested to see if he can hold that form for Rob Atras. My top pick is Remi's Moon (#7), who steps up in class after beating conditioned claimers last time at Ellis Park. That effort didn't come out of nowhere, since this horse had shown talent in his debut last fall. Yet that was his first start off the claim for David Jacobson, who will apparently be returning to the New York circuit after leaving late last year. Jacobson is a tough trainer to read, but he does have some noteworthy patterns. One of those is that he tends to keep horses in form when they run back on short rest. Over 5 years, Jacobson is 18 for 67 (27%, $2.31 ROI) with last-out winners running back in 12 to 21 days on dirt, and this horse is coming back in 17 days. He won by less than a length, but he was much the best, outdueling some pace rivals through quick fractions before holding off the closers. His 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him the horse to beat, and he probably won't go favored.

Fair Value:
#7 REMI'S MOON, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 6

If Crystal Quest (#5) can maintain his recent form while stretching out to this three-turn marathon distance, he's probably going to win. He's run the fastest TimeformUS Speed Figures in this field while competing against the toughest company. He was hardly disgraced when finishing fifth against a tough group in the G3 Dinner Party two back, and last time chased home the ever dangerous Wolfie's Dynaghost in a paceless affair. While this 1 3/8 miles distance is a new frontier for him, he's bred to handle it, and he physically looks like a horse that should be well suited to longer trips. The only negative is a likely short price. His main rival appears to be Catch a Wave (#2), who is one of three horses exiting that June 28 race at this level. It was this gelding's first start in nearly a year, so he gets a pass for getting outrun in the last furlong. He actually ran better than the winner within the context of the race, since he made the first move, and was never on the rail at any point. Chad Brown does well off layoffs, but he is also 5 for 13 (38%, $6.54 ROI) second off a layoff of 240+ days in turf races from 10 to 12 furlongs over 5 years. My top pick is Freedom's Way (#3), who ships in from Kentucky for trainer Eddie Kenneally, who doesn't come to NYRA as often as he once did. It's obviously been a while since this gelding has won a race, but he's shown marked improvement since stretching out around three turns in his last two starts. He never saw the rail when pressing the pace going 1 1/2 miles at Keeneland two back. Then last time he arguably ran even better, pressing a strong pace and traveling well to the quarter pole. He was confidently handled in upper stretch, but got swarmed late as the race came apart. He still held well to just miss. He's been plagued by outside draws in a number of recent starts, but now he gets an inside post with a chance to save ground as the rails go back to 0 feet on the inner turf.

Fair Value:
#3 FREEDOM'S WAY, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 7

I don't have a strong argument against Daisy Duke (#4), who just appears to fit this starter allowance race extremely well. She became eligible for this spot when competing for a tag in her first start for new connections in January, and she's really improved since then. She met the talented stakes winner Indy Bay three back, and then was very unlucky when stuck in traffic behind subsequent Saratoga winner Strong State at this level in early June. The winner of her last race came back to win again at Ellis last weekend. She just fits really well here, but most of the arrows pointing to her are fairly obvious. Then you throw in Irad Ortiz retaining the mount, and there's a possibility that she goes off at a very short price. Perhaps it's deserved, but I don't think she necessarily has to win this race. I do think her Kentucky form is stronger than that of Despo's Dream (#7), who has also been competing in starter races in New York. She's improved since the claim by Fernando Abreu, but I didn't love how sluggish she was in the early stages last time. Looks First (#2) ran better in that same spot, making a strong late bid to just miss. The pace was coming apart in the late stages, but she doesn't have to be that far back early. She was a big price last time, but could go off at fair odds once again for a low-profile barn. My top pick is Pam Pam (#6), who hasn't been seen since she won against a weaker field at Aqueduct in April, closing with a relentless finish. Her form prior to that had been a little better than it appears, since she had a valid excuse when getting away slowly two back. I find it intriguing that Dutrow subsequently shipped her to Kentucky where she's been training ever since. Her recent drills are all spaced evenly, tapering off in speed ahead of this return. I like the confident placement off the short layoff, and don't think we've yet seen the best she has to offer in this new barn.

Fair Value:
#6 PAM PAM, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 8

The Rick Dutrow-trained coupled entry of The Big Calhouna (#2) and Everyoneloveslinda (#2B) should be the favored wagering interest in this competitive allowance optional claimer. Both are contenders in their own right, but they may be an underlay as a single unit, with both attracting significant support. I slightly prefer Everyoneloveslinda, who faced a tough field off the layoff at Churchill last time. She ranged up outside at the quarter pole and just flattened out late behind a few stakes-quality rivals. She now drops slightly in class and picks up Flavien Prat for her return to the NYRA circuit. Stablemate The Big Calhouna has posted some impressive speed figures, but she was beating weaker company when she first came into the Dutrow barn this winter and must prove she can hold that form into the summer. Princess Madison (#3) figures to attract some attention as she returns to the site of her best performance, winning an allowance race here last summer with a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure. A repeat of that effort would probably put her in the winner's circle here, but her form tailed off in two subsequent starts last season. She returned from a lengthy layoff 17 days ago at Ellis Park and was disappointed as the even-money favorite. Phil Bauer has had some highly successful Saratoga meets over the last few years. His barn had been quiet heading into last week, but scored a 24-1 upset in the Honorable Miss on Sunday. I'll be interested to see if he continues to rekindle that Spa magic. My top pick is Midtown Lights (#7), who gets some changes as she returns from a layoff. This filly was concentrating on route races when last seen, but now she returns cutting back to 6 1/2 furlongs. I like the turnback for a mare who had some success sprinting early in her career. She also lands in a race that appears to feature plenty of speed, with the TimeformUS Pace Projector predicting a fast pace. She has the highest TimeformUS Late Pace Rating of anyone in this field, and cutting back in distance should sharpen her late kick. Furthermore, she's switching into the barn of Saffie Joseph, who has success with this move. Saffie is 14 for 44 (32%, $2.35 ROI) first off trainer switches with non-maidens coming off 100- to 300-day layoffs over 5 years. He's also 7 for 16 (44%, $2.79 ROI) on dirt within that sample, according to DRF Formulator.

Fair Value:
#7 MIDTOWN LIGHTS, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 9

I don't want to settle for a short price on King Puck (#7), who has been beaten at short prices in each of his last three starts at this level. Some may be willing to give him an excuse last time when he was coming off a layoff, but he got an absolutely perfect trip. He sat in the pocket early and tipped out in the stretch, just unable to run down the leader. If I'm going to take a horse out of that race, I'd rather go for Light Fantastic (#9), who was chasing 2 to 3-wide in his career debut. This horse had been touted ahead of that start for low-profile connections, getting bet down to 7-1. He faded a bit at the end, but it was a solid effort over a turf course that was playing to inside paths. He should be fitter for this second start, and may show improved early speed with the addition of blinkers. My top pick is The Commish (#4), who makes his second start off a layoff for Keri Brion. He returned against $40k maiden claimers, making his turf debut after having been rained off the grass in his career debut last summer. He obviously took to the new surface, showing excellent early speed before fading to third. He was dueling outside of a rival and fought back gamely in the stretch to retake the lead just as the race was falling apart. The top two finishers both rallied from far back. His pace-upgraded 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure stacks up favorably against those who have competed at this level. He gets a rider upgrade to Luis Saez and should be fitter after getting two stiff workouts last week.

Fair Value:
#4 THE COMMISH, at 9-2 or greater