TimeformUS Race Analysis

Picks & Plays for Monday, August 21

by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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PICKS

Race 1:   8 - 9 - 4 - 1
Race 2:   7 - 5 - 4 - 12
Race 3:   2 - 7 - 4 - 3
Race 4:   7 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 5:   6 - 1 - 3 - 9
Race 6:   3 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 7:   2 - 7 - 8 - 1
Race 8:   5 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 9:   3 - 6 - 8 - 1

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: IMPAZIBLE WOMAN (#7)
She Remembered is obviously the horse to beat in this race after just missing at this level in two straight starts. She ran especially well last time when making a wide move to reach contention before hanging in the late stages. She deserves respect, but I want to take a shot against her with Impazible Woman. There doesn’t appear to be that much speed in this race, so I’m hoping that this filly can take advantage of a moderate early pace. Angel Arroyo tried to do that last time when he sent her forward from an outside post position, but she ended up getting caught in a pocket behind the leaders, and didn’t get out until the top two had run away in the lane. All things considered, I thought it was a fine turf debut. Now she moves to the barn of Ralph Nicks, who gets a 93 Trainer Rating off trainer switches.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,5,12
Trifecta: 5,7 with 5,7 with 4,6,10,12

RACE 4: THE TWO NANCY’S (#7)
I’m just not in love with any of the horses that figure to take money in this spot. Song for the Soul is the morning-line favorite, but she didn’t run all that well in her lone turf start and is going to get bet off her dirt races. Starship Rockette did have to weave through traffic last time, but she comes out of a slow race that was falling apart at the end. Tres Charmant may be the right horse of the “logical” contenders, but she didn’t show that much as the favorite last time. I think this is a spot where we can get a little creative, so I’m taking a shot with The Two Nancy’s, who gets on turf for the first time. She’s been awful in her dirt starts, but there is some pedigree evidence that she may appreciate this switch to grass. There is some European turf breeding going back to the second generation on the dam’s side, and her dam is a half-sister to a turf stakes winner. Desert Party isn’t necessarily known as a turf sire, but his progeny do handle this surface well, as she’s 13 percent with all starters on this surface. I’d like to see Kendrick Carmouche try to use her speed.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,4,9

RACE 5: BEN OF THE BRIDGE (#6)
Hembree is a deserving favorite off his runner-up finish at the N1X allowance level earlier in the meet. He’s getting some class relief and draws well down inside for this tricky one-mile distance. However, I’m somewhat concerned that the connections have named an apprentice rider who is inexperienced riding over this circuit. Furthermore, I think he could face a challenge from a rival that figures to offer better value. Ben of the Bridge has yet to win on the turf, but he has run well, particularly in his last two starts over the surface. Both have come out of town, but he was facing decent N1X allowance fields. That was especially true last time when he was rallying down inside behind a trio of runners who will undoubtedly be favored in this spot. Trainer Butch Reid knows how to win with a longshot at the Spa.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,9
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with 2,3,5,9

RACE 9: BANKERS HOLIDAY (#3) / CLOUD CONTROL (#6)
This might be the most interesting race on the card, since a number of horses are dropping in class to run for the $50,000 claiming tag. Of the two Chad Brown horses, I prefer Tricked Up, who is probably running at the right level after winning his N1X allowance condition. He’s just not good enough to compete with the best horses in New York at higher levels, and is realistically spotted. I’m more concerned about Performance Bonus, who has been laid up quite a bit in his career, and may not really want to go two turns. I want to try to beat both with Bankers Holiday, who figures to be a square price with so many other viable options in this field. I really liked his lone turf race at the Spa last summer, in which he overcame a slow pace to nearly get up to win with a wild late rush. After that, he faced tougher company going distances that were not ideal in his next couple of grass starts. Now he comes back at a mile, and Joe Sharp has great numbers with horses coming off layoffs of 180 days or more. Over the past five years, he is 11 for 42 (26 percent, $2.97 ROI) in such situations. I’ll use him with the aforementioned runners, but I also want to include Cloud Control, who gets a positive rider switch to Irad Ortiz after encountering some traffic trouble last time. He’s one of the few runners who may be stepping up in class, but he’s actually in relatively strong form and this one-mile distance is perfect for him.

Win: 3
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 3,6 with 1,3,6,8,10
Trifecta: 3 with 1,6,8,10 with 1,6,8,10

Picks & Plays for Sunday, August 20

by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   9 - 1 - 10 - 8
Race 2:   7 - 1 - 9 - 8
Race 3:   1 - 6 - 5 - 10
Race 4:   3 - 1 - 10 - 5
Race 5:   3 - 1 - 10 - 12
Race 6:   8 - 6 - 10 - 9
Race 7:   8 - 1 - 10 - 9
Race 8:   1 - 8 - 9 - 2
Race 9:   1 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 10:   5 - 7 - 4 - 9

TOP PLAYS

RACE 3: MAGICAL SKY (#1)
I respect morning-line favorite Complicit, who has a right to take a step forward off her return at Belmont last time. The winner of that race was stalking the pace, so Complicit did the best of the closers in that race, and was finishing strongly across the wire. I liked her debut as a 2-year-old, and think she actually has some talent, but I think there’s another runner in this field that also has a right to turn into a nice horse. Magical Sky might be coming out of the strongest race of any of these. The horse that won that July 29 maiden event, Durable Goods, looks bound for stakes company after her dominant score. Magical Sky was soundly beaten that day, but she got going too late after being reserved at the back of the pack early. All things considered, she was finishing just as strongly as the winner across the wire, and acts like a runner that should benefit from this stretch-out in distance.

RACE 4: CHUBBY MASTER (#3)
This is a pretty confusing race. The horse to beat is probably Noneedtoflatterme, who has run pretty well in all of his dirt races. If he repeats his last effort, he will be a major player here. However, his trainer, Ray Handal, has pretty terrible numbers (16 Trainer Rating) with horses coming off wins, which is cause for concern. The other runner likely to attract support is Fortuitous Path, who takes a steep drop in class, but he’s been off form and is hard to trust. I’m most interested in Chubby Master, who exits a much tougher $25,000 claiming spot earlier in the meet. That day, he was briefly shuffled out of position on the backstretch as today’s rival Monte Man backed up in front of him. From there, he made a wide move into contention before getting tentatively ridden through the stretch. I think this horse is steadily rounding into form for Chris Englehart, who has started to pick things up on this circuit recently.

RACE 5: LAYLA NOOR (#3)
There could be some well-meant firsters in this race, particularly the two from the Chad Brown barn that bookend this field. Of the pair, I slightly prefer Fools Gold, who displayed a fluid stride when working a furlong in 10 2/5 seconds at the OBS sale earlier this year. She is out of Moment of Majesty, who earned more than $600,000 and was a stakes winner on the grass. I’ll use both, but my top pick is a runner with experience. Layla Noor was allowed to run when her 5 1/2-furlong debut came off the turf last month, and she likely benefitted from the experience. She seems like a filly that’s intended to stretch out in distance, and she gets that added ground here. Her dam, Senada, was a stakes-winning turfer who won going as far as 1 1/2 miles. Furthermore, Arnaud Delacour has solid numbers stretching horses out in their second career starts. Over the past five years, he is 6 for 20 (30%, $2.60 ROI) with horses going from sprint-to-route on turf in those situations.

RACE 7: MACHO MIAH (#8)
The horse to beat is clearly Wicked Macho, who is a deserving favorite off his encouraging turf debut last time. He was bumped and squeezed back at the start, leaving him in an unfamiliar position at the back of the pack. Despite losing that early going, he made a strong run into contention around the far turn and just missed getting up for the victory. He figures to show more speed from the rail given a clean break, but he’s also going to be a much shorter price now. I want to get a bit more creative, so I’m taking a shot with first-time turfer Macho Miah. I admit that I have no real insightful pedigree evidence that suggests this horse will handle the grass, even though Macho Uno (the sire of Wicked Macho) is a solid turf influence. The way this horse handled, and was striding over, a sealed racetrack last time leads me to believe than he’ll handle the grass. Furthermore, Jeremiah Englehart has had an awesome year with his turf sprinters, and these turf sprints have tended to favor outside closers.

RACE 8: ROMANTIC MUSIC (#1)
One-mile turf races on the inner course are very difficult to handicap. So much of the outcome is dependent on pace and trips. Horses that possess tactical speed and can save ground often have a distinct advantage. That’s why the horse that interests me most in this eighth race is Romantic Music. Other primary contenders like Lillie’s Answer and Magician’s Vanity are drawn towards the outside and will likely have to take back to save ground. Romantic Music, on the other hand, has drawn the rail post position, and possess enough speed to attain a stalking position. Furthermore, I think she’s in better form than it appears. Her last turf race at Belmont can just be ignored. She got an awful trip that day as she was wide all the way over a course that was favoring the inside path. I’m not that concerned about her dirt races, and a repeat of her prior turf efforts at Tampa in the spring would make her awfully tough to beat.

Picks & Plays for Saturday, August 19

by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 6 - 8 - 4
Race 2:   12 - 11 - 3 - 8
Race 3:   4 - 5 - 2 - 7
Race 4:   6 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 5:   9 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 6:   5 - 8 - 4 - 7
Race 7:   6 - 4 - 9 - 1
Race 8:   6 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 9:   5 - 7 - 2 - 6
Race 10:   3 - 8 - 2 - 4

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: MILLS (#1)
Now that this race has been moved to the main track, River Date becomes the likely favorite. The scratch of fellow speed Tashreeh greatly enhances his chances of winning, since he will be able to control the pace on the front end. That said, he was able to set a pretty slow pace in his last start, and still got run down in the late stages. I think this nine-furlong distance is a bit farther than he really wants to go, so I’m taking a shot against him with Mills. He’s been racing on turf most recently, but this horse is certainly capable of winning races at this level on dirt. I know that his recent dirt form looks subpar, but he actually ran better than it appears in a few of those races. He proved that he handles this nine-furlong distance when he was competitive in a tough optional claiming race up here last year. If Angel Arroyo can keep him relatively close to River Date early, I think he can wear that foe down.

RACE 5: BOURBON CURRENCY (#9)
There are some potentially well-meant first-time starters in this race, but the horse that interests me most is second-time starter Bourbon Currency. This horse faced a strong field in his debut and actually put forth a solid effort despite some greenness. He was in the midst of making a decent run into contention coming off the far turn that day, but lost momentum as he ducked inside of a tiring runner at the top of the stretch. His dam was Grade 1 stakes-placed on dirt, and I think he’s the kind of runner that could take a big step forward in his second start. I would use him with the Chad Brown duo of Variant Perception and Allured. The former runner is bred to improve with more distance since his dam is a half-sister to A. P. Indy and Summer Squall, so I slightly prefer Allured, who has more of a sprint pedigree and looked strong breezing a furlong at the two-year-old sale in early March. Kiaran McLaughlin’s First Warrior is also bred to be quick. I supposed you also have to use Todd Pletcher’s firster, Super Sermon, but he’s a homebred that is better bred for turf on the dam’s side.

RACE 6: HOOKUP (#5)
The horse to beat is Meantime, who is dropping out of the Belmont Stakes and returning to a more appropriate distance. If he can run back to his second-place performance in the Peter Pan, he will be awfully tough for this field to beat. However, he faces some additional challenges in this race, as he draws an outside post position going 1 1/8 miles, and must deal with other speed. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which could set things up for a closer. The runner that interests me most is Hookup, who makes his first start off a lengthy layoff for Dave Cannizzo. This colt was extremely impressive when breaking his maiden in his debut at Aqueduct last fall. After getting outrun early, he made a wide, sweeping move to the lead and galloped out strongly once clear in the stretch. I don't know why he didn't show up next time in the Remsen, but he was off for a long time after that so something may have happened. He seems like a horse that should appreciate the distance, and he figures to be fit for this since he's been consistently on the work tab since late April.

RACE 7: ELLERY LANE (#6)
Of the runners with recency, Mom’s On Strike is clearly the horse to beat. I know Vagabond and La Sola Ranger encountered varying degrees of traffic issues in that same race, but I don’t think there’s much doubt that Mom’s On Strike put in the strongest effort after the winner. She was given the impossible task of overcoming a three- to five-wide trip. According to Trakus, she traveled 24 feet farther than winner Ack Naughty, and 63 feet farther than Vagabond, who saved ground despite her trouble. She is very much part of my plays, but I’m taking a shot against her with Chad Brown’s latest import, Ellery Lane. He just has fantastic numbers with runners like this – over the past five years, he is 6 for 10 (60%, $4.90 ROI) with foreign shippers in turf routes at Saratoga. This filly will try stretching out for the first time off the layoff, but she showed her class as a 2-year-old in Ireland, finishing a close fourth to eventual Group 1 winner Roly Poly.

RACE 8: UNI (#6)
The Lake Placid drew a compact but deep and competitive field of fillies. The horse to beat is La Coronel, who returns from a trip to England and looks to reassert her dominance over this division after a pair of early-season victories. However, she may find that some of her rivals have improved in her absence. That includes Proctor's Ledge, who was a dominant winner of the Lake George earlier in the meet. I'll use both of them, but my top pick is Uni, who makes her second start in this country. This filly got a fantastic ride from Irad Ortiz in the Belmont Oaks, but was dealt a bad hand when she broke slowly. This time, I think she can be more forwardly placed in a smaller field, and may even find herself on the lead. After all, she employed front-running tactics successfully in Europe. Furthermore, she handles a softer turf course, and there is some rain in the forecast.

RACE 9: UNCHAINED MELODY (#5)
I know she's not going to offer much value in this race as the morning-line favorite, but I just think that Unchained Melody is poised to assert herself at the top of this division. She has been perfect since stretching out in distance two back, gamely turning away the talented Jamyson 'n Ginger in an allowance race before dominating the Mother Goose last time. In that race, she set a strong early pace before running away from Lockdown in the late stages. She needs to stretch out to two turns for the first time, but I think she finds herself in a favorable situation. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will be the controlling speed, and she's the kind of filly that is perfectly content to settle down on the lead and save energy for the stretch drive. Furthermore, Brian Lynch has great numbers with horses coming off a win in a graded stakes race. Over the past five years, he is 15 for 55 (27%, $2.64 ROI) in such situations.

RACE 10: MISERICORDIA (#3)
This is a pretty competitive race, and I think Misericordia is set to take a step forward and can offer some value. She ran well despite racing a bit greenly at Monmouth in her debut, and then ran better than it seems at Belmont in her next start. She was sent aggressively from the start on the inner turf course, and Mike Luzzi had some trouble reining her in after that, as she expended too much energy in the opening furlongs. That race came apart a bit in the late stages, so I'm not that concerned she was losing ground through the stretch. Now she gets a positive rider switch to Jose Lezcano and can use her tactical speed to take advantage of this inside draw.

Picks & Plays for Friday, August 18

by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   13 - 6 - 14 - 12
Race 2:   1 - 7 - 6 - 2
Race 3:   10 - 11 - 4 - 1X
Race 4:   2 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 5:   2 - 8 - 6 - 4
Race 6:   11 - 9 - 7 - 2
Race 7:   7 - 2 - 6 - 8
Race 8:   1 - 7 - 8 - 6
Race 9:   1 - 3 - 5 - 9
Race 10:   4 - 5 - 2 - 3

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: SPECIAL JO (#1)
Tug of War comes into this race in the best form, but I think he could be pace-compromised in this spot, since he's a closer in a race that lacks much early speed. Furthermore, he may prefer slightly longer distances than six furlongs and could find himself outrun in the early stages. The Pace Projector is predicting that Special Jo will be clearly in front early in a situation favoring the leader, and he's the one that I want to bet. His last race was disappointing, but he was making his first start off the claim by Joe Sharp that day, and he has poor numbers with that move at NYRA tracks. Now he's going out for top claiming trainer Robertino Diodoro, whose runners have actually done reasonably well at this meet despite the fact that he only has one winner. If he shakes loose early, they may never catch him.

RACE 5: MISSBIGTIMES (#2)
Perhaps one of the first-time starters will prove to be talented, but I think there's a runner with experience in this field that looks pretty formidable. Missbigtimes figures to improve off her first start, a third behind eventual Adirondack Stakes winner Pure Silver. This Jeremiah Englehart-trained filly ran deceptively well that day, as she was off in a tangle before getting immediately steered outside of horses to race wide into the far turn. Despite losing ground, she advanced willingly into third before chasing the leaders home through the lane. All things considered, this was an encouraging performance, and young horses like this can take major steps forward from start to start early in their 2-year-old seasons. Englehart has had a strong year with his 2-year-olds, and this filly looks like another runner with a future.

RACE 6: PAINTER’S RAGS (#11)
The horse to beat with this race coming off the turf is obviously Caviar Czar, who handled this going when breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs on the Kentucky Derby undercard. However, it is worth noting that he was racing on the best part of the track that day down along the rail. He did well in his first start against winners last time, but he racing up close to a relatively slow pace (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs) that held together. I think he will face a serious challenge from Painter’s Rags, who gets back on dirt after a failed turf experiment last time out. This son of Union Rags handled a wet track when winning his debut with a strong finish back in December, and then was against a slow pace next time out behind Battalion Runner at Gulfstream. He should have gotten some needed fitness out of his return, and I think he will appreciate this stretch-out to nine furlongs. At a big price, I also want to use Harlan Strong, who may have improved overall in recent starts since he was last on dirt.

RACE 10: HOLY WEEK (#4)
The horse that wins this race is probably going to be the one that handles this distance on the dirt best, since a number of the contenders may not actually want to go this far over this surface. Horses like Sanavi and Prize Fight figure to take money, but I'm not confident in their ability to win two-turn races on the main track. I've instead landed on Holy Week. I know this horse isn't exactly known for winning races, but his lone victory came at this distance, over this racetrack, on a sloppy surface – and there's rain in the forecast for Friday. He clearly moves up on a wet track, as she showed last time when finishing a close third to Control Group and Tellmeafookystory, both of whom would be formidable in this spot. These connections can win on the NYRA circuit and he should get a fair pace to close into.

Picks & Plays for Thursday, August 17

by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 2:   3 - 7 - 2 - 10
Race 3:   4 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 4:   6 - 2 - 9 - 10
Race 5:   7 - 1 - 10 - 6
Race 6:   3 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 7:   2 - 1 - 4 - 10
Race 8:   9 - 1 - 7 - 8
Race 9:   11 - 1 - 6 - 2

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: FRIEND OF LIBERTY (#1)
Easy Way Out was installed as the morning-line favorite in this competitive opener, but she's one of the runners I'm interesting in playing against. At first glance, she looks pretty formidable, but keep in mind that she's had great setups in her races and is dropping in class after a pair of layoffs. One of the alternatives is her stablemate Tainted Angel, who just got the better of today's rival Honor Way in a cheaper spot last time. They both had things working for and against them on that occasion. They got a fast pace to close into, but Tainted Angel was wide throughout against a mild rail bias, and Honor Way was steadied at the start. They're worth using, but I prefer others. My top selection is Friend of Liberty. Robert Falcone Jr. isn't known for running horses back on short rest, but he has done very well off the claim over the past year. Since last summer, he is 7 for 20 (35 percent) with recent claims, with an ROI approaching $4. Furthermore, Friend of Liberty was racing three wide against a strong rail bias here last Sunday, and would have been a clear winner of that race over a fair track. I'll use her with the speedy duo of Courtmewithcarats and She's Stunning, since the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors the front-runners.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,5,7

RACE 3: SECURITIZ (#4)
Whether or not you think Securitiz is the right horse to bet in this race, it's pretty clear that you should want him over Thebigfundamental, who is likely to go off as the favorite. They faced off last time under similar circumstances, and there is no doubt that Securitiz ran the better race. Thebigfundamental had everything his own way on the front end that day, and had no real excuse. Securitiz, on the other hand, was asked to make an early run after his rival around the turn, and wore him down in the stretch before just getting nipped at the wire. Furthermore, the racetrack was somewhat conducive to inside speed types that day, which makes Securitiz's performance even more impressive. I think this Jimmy Jerkens trainee has returned in great form as a 5-year-old and will be very tough to beat in this spot. He possesses the tactical speed to not be overly pace- compromised, and I think he's the most likely winner of this race.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,6
Trifecta: 4 with 3,6 with ALL

RACE 6: HARD SCRAMBLE (#3)
Beasley has to be considered the horse to beat as he drops out of graded stakes company while returning from the layoff. When last seen, he hardly disgraced himself, finishing behind eventual Belmont Stakes winner Tapwrit in the Tampa Bay Derby. He's obviously a nice horse, but these connections are not exactly known for winning off layoffs, and he's facing at least one serious rival in this spot. If Hard Scramble can repeat his last effort, he's supposed to win this race. Takaful, who wired the field that day, is likely to go off as one of the choices in the Grade 1 Allen Jerkens later this month. Hard Scramble was the only horse chasing that pace to be anywhere near Takaful at the finish, while only getting passed by a pretty talented closer late. It seems like the Steve Asmussen barn has finally gotten rolling here after sending out a couple of winners last week.

Win: 3
Trifecta: 3 with 1,2,5 with 1,2,4,5,6,7

RACE 7: AWESOME BOSS (#2)
Taperge is the horse to beat, but she feels like one of these Chad Brown runners that is likely to get overbet. Her races at Gulfstream this winter were solid and she kept good company, but I'm not sure that she has much of an edge on this field, and there are other talented runners in this race. Initiate has gotten some favorable setups, but is a danger to wire the field, and Summer Luck must prove that her good third in the Regret was no fluke. I'll use all of them, but the filly that interests me most is Awesome Boss. I find it curious that she hasn't raced on turf since last summer, since she appeared to prefer that surface at the time. Her lone route race here as a 2-year-old was not a bad effort considering that she was beaten by eventual stakes winners Coasted and Dream Dancing. She's undoubtedly has improved since then, and seemed to take a significant step forward last time on the Polytrack at Turfway. Robby Albarado has had limited opportunities at this meet, but he's given some clever rides, and I think he can work out a good trip for this filly.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,10

Picks & Plays for Wednesday, August 16

by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 6 - 7 - 2
Race 2:   4 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 3:   3 - 2 - 1/1A - 5
Race 4:   6 - 3 - 7 - 1/1A
Race 5:   4 - 10 - 5 - 6
Race 6:   2 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 7:   1/1A - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 8:   7 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 9:   5 - 3 - 8 - 1
Race 10:   3 - 5 - 6 - 2

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: POWERFUL ALLY (#4)
Spieth has to be considered the horse to beat off his solid return last time, in which he finished second while earning the fastest speed figure of his career. He has a right to improve off that effort, and he shouldn't have any trouble handling the stretch-out in distance. However, it's fairly obvious, and is unlikly to offer value in what is a fairly competitive race. I'm taking a shot against him with Powerful Ally, who ran quite well in his local debut last time. There were some fairly talented runners in that race, and it mostly held together on the front end, with Powerful Ally being the only horse to make a significant run from the back of the pack. The main track surface was somewhat speed-favoring that afternoon, which may have hindered his late run. He's certainly not a horse that needs to be coming from that far off the pace, as he showed in the first two starts of his career. He broke a step slowly last time, and the rail draw forced Jose Ortiz to take him farther back than he otherwise would have been. This time the Pace Projector is predicting he will be sitting in a stalking position.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,7

RACE 3: FIRE AWAY (#3)
He's not going to be any kind of generous price, but I just think Fire Away is a very likely winner of this race. It took him a couple of starts to get going at the beginning of this year, but his most recent effort in the Lure signals he may now be in the best form of his career. That race was filled with graded stakes-quality runners, and was overall a much tougher field than the one he's meeting today. Furthermore, it's not as if that race fell apart in the late stages, and he was closing fastest of all through the stretch. His trainer, Shug McGaughey, now wheels him right back on short rest, which is something that he does very well. Over the past five years, he is 8 for 24 (33 percent, $3.22 ROI) with horses running back in just 8 to 14 days. Fire Away is also stretching back out to 11 furlongs, and has won both of his prior starts at this distance. I much prefer him to the Graham Motion entry, which is favored on the morning line.

Win: 3
Trifecta: 3 with 2 with ALL
Trifecta: 3 with 1,5 with 1,2,5

RACE 4: JUMP FOR JOY (#6)
My main opinion in this race is that I want to bet against the entry. Lady Devil has turned out to be more of a turf horse, and is dropping after a voided claim was put in on her last month at Belmont. Easy Way Out has run competitive speed figures, but the layoffs, the steady drop in class, and the naming of an apprentice rider rarely used by this barn has me concerned. I want new faces. Lady Constance is probably the horse to beat, as she turns back in distance, but she doesn’t figure to offer much value. Instead, I’m taking a shot with Jump for Joy. I know she looks too slow, but there are some things to note about this filly. She crushed a maiden claiming field in her second start at Aqueduct in the winter. She was claimed that day, but that was voided once she came back with an issue and was vanned off. It’s taken a long time to get her back to the races, but I think it’s interesting that Pletcher enters her in this cheap race while withholding the claiming price (allowed due to the significant layoff). I’d normally be skeptical of a runner like this, but Pletcher’s numbers in these situations are great. During the past five years, he is 9 for 28 (32 percent, $2.67 ROI) with horses returning from layoffs of more than a year on the dirt.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,7

RACE 8: IRISH PRAYER (#7)
While it's become rare for fast paces to develop in one-mile races on the inner turf course, you would have to imagine that the early pace of this race would be somewhat contested. Crafty Concorde, Damage Control, No Texting, and Ex Ex Ex all have run their best races when racing on or near the lead, so it seems unlikely their connections would want to rate them – but you never know on this circuit. I'm hoping that some pace develops, because I want closers in this race. Mobridge is the horse to beat, but he got a smart ride from Jose Lezcano last time, when he was placed close to a moderate pace and got the jump on the closers. He can win again, but his form is exposed at this point. Therefore, I'm trying to beat him with Irish Prayer, who should be a much more attractive price. At first glance, it looks like he's lost a step, but I think he just hasn't been in the right spots recently. He's not really a sprinter, and he actually didn't run that badly behind an impressive performance by runaway winner Made in Detroit two back. Now he gets back out to two turns and is placed at an appropriate class level. Mike Maker gets a 100 Trainer Rating with horses going from allowance to claiming company.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,6

RACE 9: MARCH X PRESS (#5)
It will be interesting to see how the pace of this race develops, since the majority of the runners in this race showed speed in their maiden scores. Either they will have to rate for the first time, or the pace will collapse, as it did in this race last year. I'm thinking that the latter scenario is more likely, which is why I'm picking March X Press. I don't think it's any secret that this filly ran much better than the speed figures suggest in her debut, since she was off slowly and made a wild late run from last to get up and win. I know that only came against New York-breds, but she figures to take a step forward this time if she breaks more professionally. Todd Pletcher rarely runs his horses back this quickly without good reason, so I'm going to take it as a positive sign that he's striking while the iron is hot.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,9

Picks & Plays for Monday, August 14

by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

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Race 1:   4 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 2:   2 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 3:   5 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 4:   4 - 6 - 7 - 2
Race 5:   5 - 8 - 2 - 1
Race 6:   5 - 4 - 7 - 10
Race 7:   7 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 8:   1 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 9:   8 - 1 - 3 - 10

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RACE 4: TOM’S MUSIC (#4)
Gidu and Pocket Book are likely to go off as co-favorites in this spot. The former, a Pletcher-trained son of Frankel, has the pedigree to be a real runner and must be respected, while the latter is the only horse in the race with positive turf experience to her credit. I have no major knocks against them, but I just want to call attention to a longshot that could outrun his odds. Tom’s Music didn’t do much running in his first start, but it is worth noting that the track was quite speed-favoring on that afternoon, which may have compromised whatever late kick he might have offered. He was claimed out of that race by Carlos Martin, and is immediately switched to turf. It makes sense, since his dam was a two-time turf winner and he is a half-brother to a winner on this surface. His prior trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, is not known for winning with his debut runners, so it’s likely that he needed that start anyway. Perhaps this is too tough a spot for him to win, but he’s definitely one to use in trifectas and such.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,6,7
Trifecta: 6,7 with 1,2,6,7 with 4

RACE 6: ANY QUESTIONS (#5)
Win With Pride is the horse to beat, but I don’t think he has any kind of major edge on this field, even as he drops slightly in class. I prefer him to Keepingitquiet, who gets a mildly negative trainer change to Gary Gullo, who has poor numbers with his turf starters (46 Trainer Rating). I’m trying to beat them with Any Questions. I know that his last race was somewhat disappointing, but I think he ran a bit better than it seems at first glance. Kantune was the lone speed in that race, and Any Questions had to be sacrificed to any extent, going after him around the far turn through a third quarter in a snappy 23.14 seconds. He got passed in the stretch, but never gave up and was even trying to re-rally as they approached the finish. Now he gets a trainer change to Jeremiah Englehart, who has been doing well with turf starters in recent months.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 4,7,9,10

RACE 7: ORECCHIETTE (#7)
Battlement figures to go favored here, but I’m a bit skeptical about her repeating her last race. She faced a very different situation that day as she got yielding ground to run over and a fast pace to close into. This time, the turf should be firm and the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead. That could benefit Heavenly Score, who possesses good tactical speed and put forth a respectable showing in the Coronation Cup last time. She’s definitely on my tickets, but my top pick is Orecchiette. This filly ran well in her debut at the Spa last summer, and I think her two turf sprints as a 3-year-old are a bit better than they appear. She was green when winning her maiden two back, switching leads multiple times through the lane, and then last time she was held up in traffic on the turn before angling into the clear for the drive. I’m not sure we’ve seen the best of this runner just yet, and I think her recent speed figures could have been higher considering the form of her competition.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,6

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