TimeformUS Race Analysis

Picks & Plays for Monday, September 2

by David Aragona

Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 11 - 7 - 4
Race 2:   6 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 3:   8 - 7 - 2 - 3
Race 4:   4 - 7 - 6 - 5
Race 5:   2 - 4 - 13 - 1
Race 6:   8 - 6 - 1 - 9
Race 7:   6 - 10 - 3 - 2
Race 8:   8 - 7 - 3 - 9
Race 9:   2 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 10:   3 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 11:   8 - 3 - 11 - 7

PLAYS

RACE 2: MANIFEST DESTINY (#6)
With the scratch of Battle Station, Mo Diddley is likely to inherit the favorite's role. The dropdown on this horse is not terribly difficult to justify given the purse of the race, but it’s still not a positive sign. He was claimed for $40,000 by Joe Sharp last time and is now in for $25,000. Some barns run horses for less than their worth to get a win at Saratoga. However, this horse’s recent form would appear to suggest that he’s capable of winning a tougher race. I’m using both of these runners defensively, but I want to go in a different direction. My top pick is Manifest Destiny. This gelding made his first start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez at the same level last time. He took no money, going off at a preposterous 15-1, and he performed in accordance with that lack of support. Yet now he’s coming back at the same level with Irad Ortiz named instead of Santana. Furthermore, given how untrustworthy the two favorites seem, this may be an easier spot than that last trace. Manifest Destiny had been in career form for his prior barn and one would imagine that Rudy Rodriguez would be capable of improving a runner like this. There isn’t a ton of speed in this field and he should be able to attain a stalking position. I’d also throw in Big Thicket underneath. This horse is best on the dirt and he may be improving for the Rob Atras barn.

RACE 4: EKHTIBAAR (#4)
If Candy Promises is the half of the entry that participates in this race, he’s likely to go off at a fairly short price. I was skeptical of him getting the 1 1/8 miles last time, but he did well to only lose by a nose at a higher class level. He was claimed out of that spot by Rudy Rodriguez, and is now dropping back down in class to the $25,000 tier. He’s a major player if he repeats his last effort, but that race going nine furlongs was significantly slower than his prior two efforts around one turn. He’s predicted to be out in front again and he’s a deserving favorite, but I prefer the other horse likely to take money, Ekhtibaar. This Ray Handal trainee has curiously raced on turf in half of his starts for the new barn even though that’s clearly not his preferred surface. His last two dirt efforts were quite solid, as he won with ease at Belmont three back and then bested a solid field at Laurel on July 4. Both of those races came around one turn, but I actually think he might be at his best going the two-turn 1 1/8 miles. It’s great to see Irad Ortiz climb back aboard, and I think he’s going to work out a great stalking trip in this affair. I would also throw in some of the recent claims, such as the Danny Gargan-trained Chief Know It All, and the recent Linda rice claim Heavy Roller. Both horses are obviously proficient going this far.

RACE 8: PUFFERY (#8)
Hay Field will probably win this race if she improves at all off the claim for Jason Servis. She was already running fast enough to win a race like this for her prior barns, and she actually has won at this level in the past. The only possible knock on this horse is the fact that they’re running her for $40,000 again instead of moving her up in class. That said, Michael Dubb likes to win races at Saratoga, so perhaps it’s nothing to be concerned about. Hay Field may just be better than these. That said, this is a competitive field around her and some horses figure to get a little lost in the wagering. I’m taking a shot against the favorite with Puffery, who is one of a few wild cards in this race. This filly wasn’t quite competitive at this level when she was in Mark Hennig’s barn, but this is the kind of horse who is supposed to move forward off the claim for sharp connections like trainer Rudy Rodriguez and owner Vincent Scuderi. However, we never got a chance to see what she can do for the new connections in that open N1X race last time since she completely blew the break. That spot may have been too tough for her anyway, as it’s somewhat interesting that the new connections even chose to run her above the New York-bred condition for which she’s eligible. She’s back down to that level here and I think she’s a viable alternative to the favorite if she takes the step forward that we expected to see last time. I’m not a big fan of Newport Breeze, who got a perfect trip when she won last fall at Belmont and may need a start off the layoff. Timely Tradition always shows up for this new barn, but I think she’s a cut below Hay Field. I would even throw in Shelley Ann underneath, since she’s won sprinting in the past and appears to be training well for her return.

RACE 9: EMARAATY (#2)
You can make a case for almost every horse in this competitive Bernard Baruch field. Qurbaan and March to the Arch faced off in the Forbidden Apple, finishing third and fifth, respectively, that day. Qurbaan was the favorite in that spot, and he did his usual act, hanging in deep stretch. This horse is obviously the class of the race, but his inability to seal the deal regardless of class level is a major concern. March to the Arch returned to improve in the Fourstardave last time, but he was never a serious threat to winner Get Stormy and was just passing tiring horses late. I’m using both of these defensively, but I want to focus on the Chad Brown runners here. Sacred Life may go off as the favorite after losing a close decision to the classy Lucullan in the Lure last time. That was only a restricted stakes, but the winner is a graded stakes type and Sacred Life was making his first start in nearly five months. If he steps forward at all out of that effort, he’s going to be a handful here. However, I slightly prefer Brown’s other horse at what is likely to be a square price. Emaraaty only beat optional claiming foes last time, but Dream Friend is turning into a decent turf runner and runner-up Frontier Market returned to win impressively. Emaraaty’s British form was fairly spotty, but he did record an impressive 120 Timeform Rating in the Netbet Sport Handicap in May 2018, and he nearly matched that performance in his U.S. debut. Perhaps getting firm turf and Lasix has allowed him to gain some much-needed consistency. Furthermore, he traveled very keenly in that stateside appearance last time, and he figures to settle better with that run under his belt.

RACE 10: GREEN LIGHT GO (#3)
This Hopeful drew an excellent field, as it features the winners of both major stakes for 2-year-olds at this meet, the Sanford and Saratoga Special, as well as a handful of impressive maiden winners. While I think you can make a valid case for a number of horses, I’m not trying to beat the likely favorite Green Light Go. I’ve been a fan of this horse since his debut, when he easily defeated the subsequent stakes winner Another Miracle. He won going 5 1/2 furlongs that day, but he’s built like a horse who wants to run longer distances, towering over many of his rivals. He relished the added furlong of the Saratoga Special, and he also got a good schooling that day. Junior Alvarado put him in behind horses in the early going, yet he seamlessly swung out at the top of the stretch and took command. He showed some greenness in the lane, ducking in as he pulled away, but he finished up strongly once Alvarado straightened him out. I don’t see him having any issue with the seven furlongs, and no one in this field has run faster than the 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned last time out. As long as he continues moving forward, I doubt any of these can beat him. However, there are some maiden winners with ability in this field. Gozilla looks like the real deal off his visually impressive debut one race prior to Green Light Go’s Saratoga Special. He got a clear lead that day and was able to slow down the pace a bit before pulling away. However, there may not be any competitors as fast as him in the early going here, either. He has to get the seven furlongs, which is a question mark, but he’s the one who scares me most. I would also use Shoplifted, another one who got a decent education in his last-out win, and Basin, who hasn’t been as flashy as the other two Asmussen runners but nevertheless beat a strong field last time.

Picks & Plays for Sunday, September 1

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 2 - 8 - 6
Race 2:   8 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 3:   5 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 4:   8 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 5:   10 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 6:   3 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 7:   2 - 6 - 8 - 3
Race 8:   1 - 10 - 5 - 7
Race 9:   2 - 5 - 7 - 3
Race 10:   5 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 11:   6 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 12:   2 - 11 - 5 - 1

PLAYS

RACE 1: MORE THUNDER (#5)
Summer Sangria figures to go off as the favorite given her positive turf experience. She’s one of two fillies entered against the boys, and she also faced males in that encouraging debut. She carved out some fast fractions in a race fell apart in the late stages, so she deserves extra credit for hanging around for second. However, I’m not sure that was a field of much quality since winner Frosted Rose returned to be 7th in a stakes while regressing 14 points on the TimeformUS Speed Figure scale. Wesley Ward is better first time out, but this obvious contender is nevertheless the horse to beat. Yet I’m intrigued by a couple of the first time turfers. One of those is Montana Man. Constitution is off to an excellent start as a sire, though we haven’t see much of his progeny on turf yet. The dam was a 4-time turf winner who won a stakes on this surface, and 3 of her 4 foals to try the turf have won on grass. This colt didn’t show much in his debut on dirt, but certainly has a right to move forward on the surface switch. He’ll be a part of my play, but my top pick is fellow first time turfer More Thunder. This colt actually went through sales ring 3 times earlier this year, drilling a furlong at three separate 2-year-old in training sales, so he’s probably more seasoned than his record indicates. Goldencents is 12% with first time turfers and 18% with turf starters overall. The dam was 1-for-24 on turf and was probably best on that surface. This is her first foal and there isn't much going on in the 2nd generation, though there is enough pedigree evidence to suggest he can run on turf. Furthermore, Steve Klesaris is 7-for-27 (26%, $3.39 ROI) with second time starting maidens over the past 5 years.

RACE 4: I’LLHANDALTHECASH (#8)
I suppose My Galina is the horse to beat as she drops out of stakes company into this N1X allowance race. Her connections got a little ambitious following her impressive debut, with good reason, but she failed to step forward against tougher company. If the class relief allows her to regain the form that we saw in that initial run, she’s going to be a handful here. However, her last race has to be somewhat concerning. Perhaps she’s a need-the-lead type who reacted badly to getting outrun and that’s why she folded so readily. Yet Honey I’m Good and Science Fiction also possess potent early speed, so she could be under the gun from the start. I’m taking a shot against her with I’llhandalthecash, who I’m hoping can revert to the stalking tactics that worked so well for her two back. She was pretty aggressive last time, dueling through fast fractions before tiring late. Yet she still beat the horse with whom she was battling early by a long way, and that race was dominated by closers. Prior to that she had run very well to break her maiden over Bye Bye Nicky, the same horse that My Galina defeated in her debut. This filly is certainly quick enough to handle the 5 1/2 furlongs, and I think she’ll have another step forward in her if Manny Franco gives her a slightly more conservative ride.

RACE 8: DAY DAYENU (#1)
There are a number of intriguing maiden races for 2-year-olds on Sunday at Saratoga, and this one seems to contain some fillies of quality. A few of those that have run have hinted at possessing some ability. That group is led by Buxom Beast, who was a solid fourth in the Schuylerville during the first week of the meet. She has a right to step forward second time out, but I prefer first-time starters. The one that figures to attract the most attention is the $1.2 million yearling purchase Orsay, a daughter of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah out of the multiple Grade 1-winning mare Life At Ten. Chad Brown can certainly win with a well-meant first time starter, but I haven’t been thrilled with the workouts that I’ve seen from this filly. She might need a start, so I prefer some others. Always A Queen is worth considering for Todd Pletcher, who has been far more successful with his juveniles at this meet than during the past two years. This daughter of Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist is out of the Grade 1-placed dirt router Danette, so she may ultimately prefer more ground than she gets here. My top pick is Day Dayenu, who debuts for Jorge Abreu. Since he started training, Abreu has a record of 11-5-3-0 (45% winners, $4.34 ROI) with first time starters on the dirt. Day Dayenu is certainly bred to be precocious, being a daughter of Into Mischief. She looked great working a furlong in 10 2/5 seconds at the Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream sale earlier this year, and she recently has trained very well. On Aug. 7, she easily outworked the older Freaky Styley, who earned a 95 TimeformUS Speed Figure in his debut.

RACE 9: HERE COMES JACKIE (#2)
Connectivity figures to go off as the favorite in this spot off that visually impressive score last time out. That was her final start for the Chad Brown barn, since she’s now making her first start off the claim for Linda Rice. While this is hardly a negative trainer switch, I thought this filly took advantage of a pretty weak field in that lower-level claiming event last time. She was striding out well through the final quarter mile, but I don’t have a ton of confidence that she’s going to run as well here given her prior inconsistency. I’m interested in both horses dropping out of the allowance race won by Passing Out on August 9. That was a race which featured a strong pace that fell apart in the late stages, so both Enjay’s Brass and Dance Till Dawn deserve credit for running well while chasing and setting the pace, respectively. Enjay’s Brass is particularly intriguing since she’s obviously stepped forward on turf and she may not yet garner the respect she deserves for those last two efforts against better company. I’m using all of these horses, but my top pick is Here Comes Jackie. She’s had more chances than anyone else in this field, having already made 14 starts. Yet she seems to have benefited from that experience, since she’s just now peaking in the summer of her 3-year-old season. This is actually a slight drop in class for her, since she’s been facing older horses in three of her last four starts. I thought she ran on well after a slight stumble at the start two back and I can excuse her loss last time in a race dominated on the front end. She gets a positive rider switch and Mike Dini has been sending live runners to Saratoga.

RACE 10: CATHY NAZ (#5)
The Pace Projector isn’t predicting a fast pace, but I think there are a number of speeds in this field who could potentially hook up on the front end. Smoken Deb appears to be a need-the-lead type, while Carrizo and Olive Kat have also done their best work when able to make the front. Furthermore, horses like Excess Capacity and Subsidiary have also flashed good early zip on occasion. Of those, Carrizo is probably the strongest contender, and she has shown the ability to stalk the pace. She exploded with a huge victory for Danny Gargan two back, though she didn’t disgrace herself off the claim for David Cannizzo last time out. If she maintains that form here, she’s going to be a handful here. However, I’m somewhat concerned that the pace could come apart, so I want to find a capable closer. I’m hoping that could turn out to be Cathy Naz. I know she looks a bit slower than the main contenders, but she might get the perfect trip in this spot. She hasn’t faced ideal pace situations in many of her recent starts. That was especially the case last time when she leapt up at the start and left the stalls a few lengths behind the rest of the field. She passed some tiring runners late, but she never had a chance to make a major impact in a race that was dominated on the front end. The Bond barn has been having a strong meet and I would expect this filly to be running on well in the late stages.

RACE 11: RISKY MISCHIEF (#6)
This Spinaway drew a fantastic field of promising 2-year-old fillies. Frank’s Rockette leads the list of contenders after finishing an unfortunate second in the Adirondack as the 3-5 favorite. The filly who defeated her, Perfect Alibi, is back in the lineup as well, but one would have to imagine that Frank’s Rockette has a chance to turn the tables if both get clean trips. They each were held up in traffic coming to the quarter pole last time, but Frank’s Rockette got slammed between horses at the three-sixteenths pole, losing momentum while the eventual winner was able to get the jump on her. This Bill Mott filly clearly has a ton of ability, but I fear that you’re going to take the worst of it in the value department once again with everyone seeing that trouble. There are a number of fillies exiting maiden races who must be considered. Figure of Speech is one to take seriously after she easily handled a mediocre field on debut. She has since trained very well, most recently holding her own in company with the top 3-yearold Guarana on Aug. 25. I would also use Mundaye Call, who comes into this as a maiden. She was heavily supported in her debut and ran a winning race, as she made a decisive move to the lead at the top of the stretch. However, she got tired late and drifted inside, which was not the place to be on August 11. I’m using all of these, but I want to take a shot with a different horse. Risky Mischief only beat New York-breds in her unveiling, but I loved the way she did it. She didn’t break that sharply from the rail, but she easily recovered to make the front and simply dominated. She set very fast fractions and was geared down late while running over a very tiring, sealed strip. Horses have come back to run well out of that race, so the 88 TimeformUS Speed Figure could arguably be higher. I think she stacks up well against these open foes, and she could be the main speed from the outside this time.

Picks & Plays for Saturday, August 31

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 2:   6 - 2 - 7 - 1
Race 3:   3 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 4:   1 - 4 - 5 - 8
Race 5:   1 - 3 - 10 - 8
Race 6:   2 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 7:   3 - 4 - 9 - 5
Race 8:   1 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 9:   11 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 10:   7 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 11:   1 - 9 - 7 - 5
Race 12:   8 - 4 - 5 - 1

PLAYS

RACE 4: FULLY VESTED (#1)
The Pace Projector is predicting a situation in which there is no speed, but there actually is a horse in this race who would enjoy racing on the front end. Fully Vested has clearly run his best races as the early leader, and he’s likely to revert to those tactics from this rail draw. For whatever reason, Fully Vested didn’t flash his typical speed from the gate in his turf debut at Monmouth two back. Yet, after less than an eighth of a mile, he wanted to run up and contest the lead, and Joe Bravo elected to restrain him in the second flight. He ended up getting caught very wide outside of a drifting rival. Fully Vested has never been known as a horse who wants to pass rivals in the lane, yet on this day he unleashed a strong late rally that carried him to second place. Overall, the trip was awkward and the performance was better than it seems. The winner of that race, Justaholic, returned next time to win a stakes with an impressive 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure. It should not come as a major shock that he handles the turf better here, since he’s a half-brother to turf stakes winner Midnight Watch and a full brother to turf sprint winner Great Import. He’s my to p pick, but there are others to consider. Fig Jelly makes sense after also finishing second to Justaholic at Monmouth, though he may be the favorite off that effort. I’d also include Pagliacci, who is in top form for Linda Rice.

RACE 6: GOOD GOVERNANCE (#2)
This race is likely to scratch down to five with Tracksmith expected to compete in the Virginia Derby instead. Seismic Wave is the class of this field as he drops out of a series prestigious events. He was actually the favorite in the 14-horse Belmont Derby two back and, while he did have some traffic trouble, he a disappointment that day. Yet at least he still put in a solid effort in the stretch. That was not the case in the Saratoga Derby last time, as he was unable to overcome a wide trip and offered absolutely nothing in the stretch. I suppose it’s possible for the class relief to wake him up, but he won’t be getting much help in the pace department. The Pace Projector is predicting that Rinaldi will be out front setting what should be an uncontested lead, and that figures to make him dangerous. This New York-bred has never faced company of this caliber, but he looked great destroying a field going a mile last time. This son of Posse has stepped forward with each start and he finished up last time like 1 1/16 miles wouldn’t be a major issue. I’m using him prominently at a square price, but my top pick is the second time starter Good Governance. You’re not going to get much of a price on this Chad Brown trainee, but that makes sense after he ran so well to win his debut. Horses typically need to show speed or save ground in one-mile races on the inner turf course, and Good Governance did neither of those things. He was reserved at the back of the pack going 4-wide around both turns, yet he still closed down his well-meant stablemate Doswell to get the victory. This British-bred colt had always trained well, so the fact that he’s following in the footsteps of other overseas yearling purchases for this barn is no surprise. If he steps forward at all, he’s going to be a handful in this spot.

RACE 8: GET SET (#1)
Mr Jaggers took a ton of money in his debut to be bet down to 2-1 for Bill Mott, a trainer not known for winning with first time starting 2-year-olds. The horse got a decent trip, had to a go a little wide, and just got outfinished by the runner-up. That’s proven to be a decent race, as both the second and fourth place finishers returned to win impressively. I won’t be surprised when he takes a step forward second time out, but there are other horses with upside in this field. Policy Option also put in a solid effort in his debut, but I believe he’s coming out of a weaker race and I didn’t think he had a major excuse. Furthermore, Chad Brown often has his horses ready to fire first time out. I’m going in a slightly different direction by taking first time turfer Get Set. This gelding’s sire Awesome of Course is not the best turf influence, but his dam’s family suggests the surface switch should be to his liking. His dam Enthusiastic Gal is a multiple turf winner at a variety of distances and her half-sister Sweet Bye and Bye is also a minor stakes winner on turf. This colt raced greenly in his debut, reacting badly to kickback heading into the far turn before staying on evenly late. He moves like a horse who should appreciate the switch to turf and Steve Klesaris is 7-for-27 (26%, $3.39) with second-time starting maidens over 5 years.

RACE 9: TAKE CHARGE AUBREY (#11)
A few horses are exiting the 10th race on July 24. The one likely to attract the most support from that affair is Proximity Bias, who finished third behind Prioress starter Risky Mandate. I thought this Chad Brown trainee put in a solid effort considering that it was her first start off a lengthy layoff. She chased the pace while wide and was in a somewhat uncomfortable position between horses in upper stretch before battling on gamely for third. If she steps forward, she may just be too good for these, but I want another horse out of that July 24 race. Take Charge Aubrey has had more chances than the aforementioned runner, but she’s also run some faster speed figures when she’s been at her best. She showed real potential in New York-bred races last season, finishing a close second in the Fleet Indian before going onto optional claiming success at Belmont in the fall. Yet her performance that impressed me most was the 7-furlong race she ran on Aug. 13 over this course last summer. I’ve always felt that slightly shorter trips are better for this filly, so I love that Bruce Levine is keeping her at 7 furlongs despite the disappointing return. This barn is not very good off layoffs, so I would expect her to move forward with that run under her belt. She’s my top pick at what should be a square price. I would also use Hallawallah, who figures to appreciate the turnback after trying much tougher foes in the Indiana Oaks. The horse that I’m somewhat against is Arrifana. She will attract support off her visually impressive debut, but that field she beat might as well have been a $25,000 maiden claimer given what was behind her. She needs to get faster to compete against these.

RACE 10: LADY MONTDORE (#7)
Fools Gold won the Waya as the “other Chad” runner when heavy favorite Santa Monica threw in a clunker. She has clearly improved since stretching out to these marathon distances, primarily by making better use of her tactical speed in some paceless races. Santa Monica has obviously run faster speed figures when she’s at her best, but we didn’t see anything close to her top performance in the Waya. Frankly, she hasn’t exactly been in top form for quite some time despite picking up a few wins over the past year. This 6-year-old mare succumbed to a slow pace as the favorite in this race last year and that’s a danger once again with no clear speed signed on. Mrs. Sippy seems like one potential alternative to the Chad Brown runners. She was only two lengths behind Arc runner-up Sea of Class back in June 2018, and her subsequent Timeform Ratings stack up well against this group. However, she’s been totally uncompetitive in two starts this season. Perhaps she didn’t care for the ground, or maybe she just needs Lasix. I’ll use her and the others in some capacity, but I’m taking a shot with Lady Montdore as she shoots for the Glens Falls repeat. She clearly benefited from a very favorable pace scenario last year in a race that featured no other speeds, but she finds herself facing a similar scenario again. The problem this time is that she’s coming off a string of poor efforts. It would be fair to excuse her loss in the Sheepshead Bay due to the boggy going, and then last time she didn’t the most comfortable trip, having to surrender the lead before getting bumped around at the quarter pole. The class relief may help and getting back to Saratoga does wonders for some horses.

RACE 11: MR. BUFF (#1)
This Woodward is a fascinating race without a clear standout. The main players are obviously exiting the Whitney won by McKinzie. Yoshida finished closest to the winner that day after making a menacing move approaching the quarter pole. This colt is clearly back in top form, reminding me of the horse that won multiple Grade 1 races in 2018. However, his task will not be easy here. As was the case in the Whitney, there is not much speed signed on, so he may have to overcome a somewhat unfavorable pace scenario. Preservationist should not be hindered by a lack of speed in this field, but I am somewhat concerned that he just isn’t as effective going 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga after his disappointing Whitney effort. While finishing fourth in such a prestigious race is nothing to sneeze at, much was expected of him as the 2-1 second choice. I have similar feelings about Vino Rosso, who never really threatened to win while just staying on evenly for third. While I respect the Whitney runners, there are some intriguing new faces to consider. Tom’s d’Etat must be respected off his visually impressive Alydar score. He clearly loves this distance and he’s put forth some of his best efforts at Saratoga. I’m using him prominently, but I want to go for a slightly better price. Mr. Buff may be dismissed by some due to his New York-bred résumé. However, I think John Kimmel and the connections are smart to try this Grade 1 while this horse is in such great form. That last effort in the Evan Shipman displayed how good he is right now, as he was put in an uncomfortable spot rating and having to come through a narrow opening inside on the backstretch. Despite that adversity, he still earned a Grade 1-type TimeformUS Speed Figure of 129. Furthermore, he’s the controlling speed from the rail. He’s a horse who can go fast early and still finish off a race. Perhaps a win will be just out of his reach, but don’t be surprised when he leads them into deep stretch.

Picks & Plays for Friday, August 30

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 8 - 4 - 5
Race 2:   3 - 4 - 8 - 2
Race 3:   4 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 4:   6 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 5:   4 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 6:   7 - 8 - 9 - 4
Race 7:   3 - 6 - 1 - 8
Race 8:   11 - 2 - 7 - 9
Race 9:   2 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 10:   3 - 5 - 6 - 7
Race 11:   10 - 6 - 8 - 4

PLAYS

RACE 1: FINANCIALSTABILITY (#7)
Freaky Styley overcame a troubled start to make an eye-catching late move in a race that was otherwise dominated towards the front end last time. This colt raced greenly in the early going and did well to respond to encouragement late at a point when other horses might have thrown in the towel. His pedigree leans a bit more towards turf, but he ran well enough on the main track first time out to justify continuing on this surface. Jorge Abreu is 3 for 7 (43%, $1.85 ROI) with second-time-starting maidens on the dirt over 5 years, so he has aright to move forward. He’s formidable, but I prefer the other second time starter exiting that July 24 maiden event. Financialstability didn’t take much money as the “other Chad Brown” runner in that race, and he proved no match for his winning stablemate. However, I thought he ran in spots that day and showed some hints of ability. He had to be hustled along in the early stages to keep up, but he was in the bridle coming to the quarter pole, at which point he took a hard bump when attempting to angle off the rail. Ortiz guided him back inside thereafter and rode him tentatively through the last sixteenth. This horse had logged 42 workouts prior to his debut, so there's more seasoning here than is apparent. He figures to show improved speed this time and would be dangerous with any kind of forward move. I prefer him as the likely second choice.

RACE 4: TIZ HE THE ONE (#6)
Wonderful Light is a difficult horse to assess as he makes his third start off a layoff while trying to get his career back on track as a 5-year-old. He once possessed the kind of talent that would make you think stakes were in his future. However, a series of setbacks and losses at short prices have gotten him stuck trying to race through his allowance conditions. He got the job done as the favorite at Laurel last time, but he wasn’t beating a field as strong as this one and the speed figure was merely mediocre for the level. Michelle Nevin’s horses do well when they can race into fitness, but this horse may just be past his prime at this point. Another runner trying to get back on track is Classic Rock, who makes his first start off a 14-month layoff. He had gotten very good two winters ago, reeling off three consecutive victories at Gulfstream while earning some impressive TimeformUS Speed Figures. However, he was taken apart by X Y Jet in the 2018 Smile Sprint and hasn’t been seen since. While I don’t fully trust him off the layoff, his speed could play quite well in this field. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. Yet I want to go in a different direction with Tiz He the One. This gelding is now back with Linda Rice after doing quite well for the Jeremiah Englehart barn at Laurel. It is a little bit of a concern that this horse has only run well at Laurel, but I think it’s meaningful that Rice is bringing him back in this spot going 6 furlongs. Perhaps it’s just a prep, but I believe going one turn is the key to this horse. If you’re concerned that he may not possess the speed to beat these, consider how fast he came home in that one-mile race back in November. He figures to be perched just off the speeds inside of him and I think he can close them down in the lane.

RACE 7: LEAVEUWITHASMILE (#3)
Hallajoori is the kind of Steve Asmussen runner who should be expected to take a step forward in her second start. This filly did well to hang on for third in her debut after getting overhauled by the impressive winner Figure of Speech at the head of the lane. Interestingly, she started in that race without Lasix, which is not a typical move for Asmussen. This barn is 9 for 27 (33%, $2.12 ROI) with 2-year-old second time starting maidens in dirt sprints at Saratoga over the past 5 years. She figures to show speed again, but she could be in trouble if fellow second time starter Leaveuwithasmile flashes the speed that she displayed in her turf sprint debut. This grey filly rocketed out of the gate and threw down some fast opening splits before drifting through the lane while fading. This barn is not afraid to make a surface switch second time out, and I would wonder if this one was meant for dirt all along, given her pedigree. While we don’t yet know much about Conveyance as a sire, the dam’s side of this family is all dirt influences. Her dam is a half-sister to dirt stakes-placed filly Newport Breeze and dirt router Doups Point. She was arguably facing a tougher field on turf last time, and I think she lands in a good spot for her second start. I prefer these to the first time starters, none of which seem to be particularly live.

RACE 8: HIT A PROVISIONAL (#11)
The two major players in this spot are A Little Faith and Chiclet’s Dream, who finished a nose apart when battling for second in that Aug. 4 race at this level. Chiclet’s Dream was a disappointment that day, since she was bet down to 6-5 and was just somewhat dull in the lane. She did get a fairly wide trip, but it’s not as if A Little Faith was saving a ton of ground. I prefer A Little Faith, who stepped forward nicely out of her sprint debut and drew a much better post position for this second attempt at a route distance. However, this is no two-horserace. I would also consider the 3-year-old Niko’s Dream, who is moving up in class despite coming out of stakes company. She lost to Kid Is Frosty twice, but she was compromised by circumstances in each of those races. She figures to get more pace to close into this time with some sprinters stretching out. I’m using all of these in some capacity, but my top pick is Hit a Provisional. This New York-bred returned from a lengthy layoff on July 14 to finish a game second going a demanding 9 furlongs. She arguably ran the best race that day, as s he dueled a rival into defeat through honest early fractions, opened up a lead in midstretch, and then gamely battled back when challenged late. Ignore the dirt race last time since that’s not her preferred surface. Her tactical speed should ensure that she works out another good trip. As long as she repeats that performance two back, I think she has a big chance to take down this field.

RACE 11: SHORT POUR (#10)
This second division of the New York-bred allowance race that goes as the 8th did not come up nearly as strong as its counterpart. In this heat, Flush is clearly the horse to beat on the slight turnback to a mile. She had shown some ability and speed on dirt at the start of her career, but she’s obviously improved with the switch to turf since returning this summer. She benefited from front-running tactics in her turf debut two back, but I like the versatility she showed in that third place finish last time, as she rated kindly and stayed on well in the stretch. The shorter distance should suit her, but she’s going to be a short price and I don’t think she brings an insurmountable advantage into this spot. I’m taking a shot against her with Short Pour. Things just have yet to go right for this filly in her first two starts back from the layoff. She had to alter course in traffic when rallying in her return two back, costing her valuable momentum at the end of the race. Then last time she arguably should have won, as she had nowhere to go when held up in traffic in midstretch. I know her connections have been sprinting her, but I’ve always felt that she prefers slightly longer distances, between 7 furlongs and a mile. We’ll see if she can handle the two turns, but she should have a bit more speed on the stretch-out and I think she’s a lot better than her recent form indicates.

Picks & Plays for Thursday, August 29

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 2:   1 - 6 - 9 - 7
Race 3:   2 - 1 - 7 - 6
Race 4:   1 - 7 - 5 - 8
Race 5:   2 - 1 - 5 - 8
Race 6:   7 - 1 - 9 - 8
Race 7:   8 - 11 - 4 - 10
Race 8:   8 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 9:   7 - 8 - 6 - 4
Race 10:   9 - 5 - 13 - 7

PLAYS

RACE 2: MINSKY MOMENT (#1)
Cross Border is the horse to beat as he goes for his third victory of the Saratoga meet in as many starts. He’s a head away from being undefeated over his last 5 starts, though two of those came prior to a lengthy layoff. He was very impressive in his win over starter allowance company two back, but he was pretty lucky to get the job done as the 4-5 favorite when he returned to New York-bred company last time. While the running line makes it appear as if he won comfortably, you can make an argument that third-place finisher Southern King and fifth place finisher Graded on a Curve both had tougher trips. The latter almost certainly would have won had he not been held up in traffic for almost the entire stretch drive. Yet, Cross Border does have the pace in his favor, since there is very little speed in this field and the Pace Projector is predicting he’ll be up close to the pace once again. I’m using him defensively, but Chad Brown has a couple of intriguing alternatives. Some will gravitate towards the lightly raced Gambler’s Fallacy, who closed well to be second in his return from the layoff last time. I suppose he has more upside than others in this race, but I prefer Brown’s other horse, Minsky Moment. This 5 -year-old isn’t exactly a winning type, having finished in the money 9 times with just 2 wins from 10 career starts. However, he is arguably best on turf despite having never won on this surface. He was beaten by stakes-quality foes Red Knight and Gucci Factor is in his two turf attempts last year, and he just got the wrong ride in his return to this surface last time. While Macagone ran off on the lead that day, the pace wasn’t actually fast at all, and Minsky Moment was left with far too much ground to make up in the lane. He figures to appreciate the stretch-out to 9 furlongs.

RACE 4: GAME BOY BENNY (#1)
Tenure may go off as the favorite in this race after losing by a frustrating half-length at this level a few weeks ago. He appeared to have the victory all sewn up coming to the eighth pole, but a resurgent Fooch, whom he had put away at the quarter pole, came back to beat him. Tenure clearly fits well at this level and handles the distances, but he’s facing a tougher field in this spot than he met la st time. Some intriguing new players make this a more ambitious assignment. Seven Gems figures to attract support off his series of impressive speed figures, but most of those were earned around two turns. It’s unclear if he’ll be quite as effective in a true turf sprint. I could also include Surge Pricing and Wild One Forever, both of whom are making their first start off the claim following a win. However, my top pick is first-time turfer Game Boy Benny. This horse has earned some eye-catching triple-digit TimeformUS Speed Figures in his last three dirt starts. He’s very fast out of the gate and he proved that he can throw down a fast 5 1/2 furlongs in that maiden win last time. The only major obstacle is the switch to turf, and I think he has enough pedigree to handle it. His dam raced on the dirt far more than the turf, but ran on e of the best races of her career on turf. She’s produced 2 siblings that have won on the turf, one of which was a full brother by Benny the Bull. Mike Dini did a good job with this horse, but George Weaver should be capable off the claim.

RACE 5: BRONXVILLE (#2)
Business Cycle is clearly the horse to beat, but I don’t trust this runner as he drops in for this low-level claiming tag. He’s a 6-year-old who has always trained well, but clearly has physical issues which have prevented him from fulfilling his potential. He’s only managed to get in one start in the past 6 months and that was a disappointing effort at Monmouth. This dropdown is similar to that of Allured for the same barn, and that one disappointed at a very short price a few weeks ago. If I’m going to take a shot against Business Cycle, I want to do it with a horse who is going to be on the front end. That’s likely to be Bronxville, who actually ran quite well in his return from the layoff last time. That August 7 affair was one that fell apart in the late stages, and Bronxville was keen to go while racing 4-wide of the speeds around the far turn. He easily passed many of those dueling inside of him in the lane and briefly challenged the eventual runner-up before fading in the late stages. Seven furlongs may be a bit of a stretch for this horse, but he won going 6 1/2 furlongs two back and he has a right to put forth a better effort in his second start off the layoff.

RACE 7: SARATOGA BEAUTY (#8)
Now that Critical Value has drawn into this race, she is going to be very difficult to beat. This filly was unlucky to lose a head bob in her debut when nosed out by her stablemate Thea’s Theme. That pair finished over 6 lengths ahead of the rest of the field in a race that earned a decent enough speed figure for the level. However, Critical Value was obviously ready to fire in her debut, and she got a great trip from Junior Alvarado. One filly who was not quite as well prepared to win first time out was Saratoga Beauty, who finished fourth in that same race. She took all the money that day, getting bet down to 9-5 odds despite being a Monmouth shipper. Paco Lopez came into ride, and it would appear that the plan was to show speed. Yet Saratoga Beauty broke slowly and instead of allowing her to settle at the back and making a closing run, Paco Lopez made the rash decision to try to hustle her into the race. It predictably backfired, as she ran into a tight spot and had to steady. From there, the horse was never in a particularly comfortable spot and she had a right to fade in the stretch. I think these are the two main players in this race. I would also use a runner like Myawara, but she needs to run a lot better than she did in her debut.

RACE 8: CALIFORNIA NIGHT (#8)
Ray’swarrior has strung a series of strong efforts since returning to the dirt last winter. While he’s been fairly consistent, he’s only actually won two of those races, losing at short prices on a couple of occasions in between. However, he’s had excuses for some of those losses. He was cooked in an extremely fast pace in the Sunshine Millions in January, and then he was outrun to the lead after a flat-footed start two back. His ample speed was on display going 5 furlongs last time, and he’ll be tough to catch if he reproduces that form here. It’s good to see winning rider Paco Lopez coming in to ride, since few are better at hustling these types out of the gate. He’s very dangerous, as is his stablemate Mr. Dougie Fresh. This other Jason Servis runner’s form has looked similar to that of Ray'swarrior off the claim. Don’t hold his True North loss against him, since he was wide against a rail bias and actually ran well to be seventh. Yet he didn’t attract much tote support in his return to optional claiming company last time and he put in a somewhat dull effort, fading late while running on the rail. He still has to be considered a player in this spot, but there are valid concerns that he’s not quite as sharp as he was over the winter. I respect these two favorites, but I want to take a shot against them with California Night. He may not be as fast as Ray’swarrior in the early going, but he has at least drawn well outside of that foe. He was dueled into defeat by Uncontested last time, and that rival returned from his fourth place finish in the Kelly's Landing to nearly break the track record here a few weeks ago, earning a 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure. This colt has it in him to win a race like this, as he displayed going 7 furlongs three back. I like that Mike Maker has given him some time to recover from that last performance, and he appears to be working with much better energy for his return.

RACE 9: ENGLISH BREEZE (#7)
I have no major knocks against the likely favorite Sweet Melania. She earned a field-best 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her maiden victory last time in her turf debut. That day she defeated a couple of next-out winners, both of whom have returned to validate that high figure. Sweet Melania did benefit from a very slow pace in that turf win, but she kicked for home nicely and did well to hold the talented runner-up at bay. I’m using her prominently, but I also respect the two fillies to her inside. Crystalle was unlucky to be disqualified out of her debut victory last time, since she was much the best. The early pace was honest, but she ran right over the top of that field in the lane, running her final quarter mile in 22.10 seconds, according to Trakus. The fact that she’s technically still a maiden is nothing to hold against her, and she’s a major player in this spot. Yet my top pick is the New York-bred English Breeze. I loved this filly’s dam, Dreaming of Cara, and it’s nice to see her produce a talented horse. This daughter of English Channel didn’t take much money in that initial start, but she traveled like a winner all the way around the track. She seemed to want to do more than was necessary in the early going, as Manny Franco had trouble restraining her in behind horses for the first 3 furlongs. Once he swung her outside off cover, she quickly inhaled the leaders and kept extending her advantage through the lane. That 89 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the kind of number open-company maidens would typically run, so she appears to fit well against this group. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her a bit closer to the pace this time.

Picks & Plays for Wednesday, August 28

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 2:   1 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 3:   8 - 1 - 9 - 6
Race 4:   4 - 1 - 3 - 8
Race 5:   4 - 12 - 7 - 10
Race 6:   9 - 4 - 3 - 8
Race 7:   4 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 8:   4 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 9:   7 - 1 - 2 - 8
Race 10:   11 - 5 - 6 - 10

PLAYS

RACE 3: OUT OF TROUBLE (#8)
Classic Lady and War Canoe figure to vie for favoritism in this spot as they both exit a July 11 race at this level. Classic Lady finished better that day and is clearly in career form right now. However, War Canoe was claimed out of that race by Danny Gargan, who has been having a fantastic Saratoga meet. That said, Gargan’s statistics with horses off the claim on the turf are merely decent: 6 for 29 (21%, $1.22 ROI) over the past 5 years. I’m using both, but I want to look for better value. Dynamite Kitten seems like a viable alternative. She h as really come to hand since getting back on turf this year, running better than it appears on a number of occasions. That was certainly the ca se last time when she was closing resolutely into a slow pace. She’s heading in the right direction, but there’s no speed in this field, and her tendency to break slowly at times could be a hindrance as she drew the rail. I want to look outside the box, so I’m taking a shot with Out of Trouble. This mare was pretty formidable in races at this level in 2018. Yet her form took a nosedive halfway through the summer last year and she hasn’t quite gotten back to those top efforts ever since. That said, you can make some excuses for her. She didn’t really handle the step up in class to open N1X foes and you can throw out her dirt efforts, since she’s clearly better on grass. She was placed appropriately at Monmouth last time, yet they made no use of her tactical speed, instead riding her from off the pace, and ducking inside when rallying in the lane. She might be pretty dangerous in this spot if Castellano can coax her into regaining the speed she once possessed. He rode her effectively on the front end in the past and the Pace Projector indicates that the early lead is theirs for the taking in this spot.

RACE 7: SWIRLING CANDY (#4)
I don’t often highlight these 2-year-old maiden races, but this particular affair is fascinating. There is no shortage of fillies with superb turf pedigrees, and there are plenty of first-time starters that appear to have ability, to go along with a few who have run. I’m not thrilled with those that bring experience to the table, and I would imagine they will take some money. Hai Bobbi figures to be among the short prices. While she was meant for turf in her debut, she really doesn’t have that much pedigree for the surface. Ward’s 2-year-olds are generally ready to go first time out and aren’t known to improve that much in these situations. I prefer his first-time starter Nic and Zoe, who appears to be working very well. She’s by excellent turf sire Street Boss out of a half-sister to multiple turf and synthetic stakes winner Holy Helena. I would also use Chad Brown’s pair of debut runners Jazzique and Selflessly. Jazzique has the more convincing turf pedigree, but both appear to be training well. My feeling is that all of the aforementioned horses are going to attract plenty of support, which could create a situation where I’ll get a price on my top pick, Swirling Candy. George Weaver isn’t necessarily known for first out success, but he is 4 for 20(20%, $3.86 ROI) with debuting 2-year-olds in turf sprints at NYRA. I loved this filly’s 10-flat workout at the OBS sale, as she displayed a beautiful turf stride with plenty of reach. She’s bred to love the grass as a daughter of Twirling Candy from the extended female family of Perfect Shirl and Shakespeare.

RACE 8: FOUR FREEDOMS (#4)
Dark Money is the horse to beat as he makes his first start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. Not only has he earned the fastest recent speed figures, but Rudy has fantastic statistics in this situation. Over the past 5 years, he is 18 for 41 (44%, $3.26 ROI) first off the claim with last-out winners in dirt sprints. It’s a good sign that he’s protecting him in a starter allowance, but I’m a little skeptical of that race. Whether you’re looking at Beyers of TimeformUS Speed Figures, the horses who finished behind him that day just haven’t come back to validate that number. In fact, most have run significantly slower in subsequent start. It might be situational, but I don’t think Dark Money is particularly formidable off his effort two back. I also found it curious that Rudy Rodriguez had entered him for turf a month ago before re-routing to this spot. He’s probably the most likely winner, but I have some reservations at a very short price. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, and that figures to benefit the rail-drawn El Asesino. He’s a good fit for this race off his recent form, but I’m most interested in the horse who should be stalking just outside of him. Four Freedoms has the tactical speed to put himself in a good tactical position early, and I think he’s going to outrun his odds in this spot. This horse has shown the ability to compete with these on occasion, but his overall form is pretty inconsistent. However, he’s working well into this return and the fact that Chris Englehart has targeted this ambitious spot at Saratoga is certainly meaningful. This barn has not been taking random shots at this meet – they’ve sent over well-intentioned runners, the majority of whom have run well. I’ll use him with the aforementioned runners, as well as the late closers Smile Bryan and Crea’s Bklyn Law. The latter had some trouble last time, but he’s not going to get as favorable of a pace setup here.

RACE 9: ANDESITE (#7)
I have no major knocks against Tuggle, who may end up the favorite in this race. This horse showed plenty of ability on dirt in his first two starts, but he’s always been meant for grass. He was entered for this surface in his debut, and his pedigree makes it quite clear that this is supposed to be his preference. This is a Phipps pedigree through and through. He’s by their solid turf influence Point of Entry and is out of a turf-winning dam who is out of the excellent mare Dancinginmydreams. That makes her a half-sister to the Grade 1-winning turf Dancing Forever. If Tuggle has inherited some of his family’s turf ability, he will be difficult for this field to overhaul. According to the Pace Projector, he’s significantly faster than these in the early going, so he could lead them throughout. I’d consider some of the local turf horses, but they’re going to have to step up their game. Our Country looked great breaking his maiden last time, but I’m not sure that he was beating much. Eagerly will attract support after running on belatedly in his debut, but I’m not sure that his sluggish, plodding style will play well in this field. If I’m going to take a shot against Tuggle, I want to do it with a new face. My top pick is Andesite, who ships into New York off a visually impressive maiden win at Indiana Downs. That race didn’t come up too fast, but Brad Cox’s statistics suggest that he’s supposed to improve. Over the past 5 years, this barn is 7 for 14 (50%, $3.28 ROI) with 2-year-olds coming off maiden wins on the turf. This son of The Factor is bred to relish added ground, and he figures to get a trip stalking Tuggle in a race that is predominantly filled with closers.

RACE 10: KATOOK (#11)
I don’t have anything too clever to say about the favorites, Mike’s Girl and Winifred J. They finished a neck apart in a race at this level on July 13, and they’re probably meeting a slightly easier field for their rematch here. Mike’s Girl has had plenty of chances and has now failed to win at this $40,000 maiden claiming level on three straight occasions, while bet down to favoritism each time. She was hampered a t the start last time, but I’m getting tired of her act. Winifred J seems like the one more with more upside, having made just two turf starts in her career. Yet she had an absolutely perfect trip last time and couldn’t hold off Mike’s Girl late. Furthermore, Jeremiah Englehart is surprisingly just 1 for 26 (4%, $0.31 ROI) first off the claim on the turf over the past 5 years. I’m using both, but I want to get a little more creative. My top pick is Katook, who makes her first start in a sprint. This filly wasn’t disgraced when splitting the field in her debut. She was far more aggressive in her second start, fighting rider Luis Reyes for the first few furlongs while attempting to run off. The hot pace of that race, and the energy she exerted fighting instructions, cost her in the lane. Yet, that speed that she wanted to display last time could actually play well in this turf sprint. Ray Handal has a tendency to run horses at distances that are a bit too far for them before cutting back, so his turnback statistics are excellent. That’s even true on turf, where he is 4 for 18 (22%, $2.64 ROI) with horses going from routes to sprints. She also gets a significant rider upgrade to Manny Franco.

Picks & Plays for Sunday, August 25

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 2 - 7 - 4
Race 2:   5 - 3 - 7 - 8
Race 3:   4 - 1 - 6
Race 4:   8 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 5:   4 - 8 - 6 - 2
Race 6:   8 - 1 - 9 - 7
Race 7:   1 - 4 - 11 - 9
Race 8:   7 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 9:   1 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 10:   6 - 2 - 4 - 3

PLAYS

RACE 2: TENCH (#5)
Ahead of Plan may go off as the favorite in this spot despite his lack of turf experience. This colt was touted at Saratoga lastsummer and ran a winning race, only to get run down by Travers starter Endorsed. He didn’t run badly in his return when compromised by a rail bias, and he actually has some pedigree to handle turf. His dam’s production has been spotty, but she did produce a multiple turf sprint stakes winner in Japan. That July 27 turf work was in company with turf stakes winner Stella di Camelot, and this colt held his own against her. Yet Chad Brown is just 3 for 18 (17%, $0.99 ROI) with maidens trying turf for the first time in sprints. His main rival is Real Money, who has entered the stretch with a daylight advantage in 4 of his 5 starts. However, he’s lost ground through the lane each time. While you can make some excuses for his losses in November and May, this last defeat as the favorite was pretty disappointing. Given his obvious distance limitations, the turnback to 5 1/2 furlongs should give him his best chance yet to hang on. However, he may get some early pressure from my top pick. I’m taking a shot with Tench. This gelding could be the thorn in Real Money’s side, since he’s shown plenty of speed on the dirt and would be pretty dangerous if he were to transfer that early zip to the turf. Majesticperfectionwins with 11 percent of his first time turfers and 16 percent with turf starters overall. The dam never tried turf, but she has produced one turf winner, Coltrane, who won once on turf and five times on synthetic. It’s also notable that all of this dam’s foals earned their best speed figures on turf despite not winning over it. Those last two turf works over at Oklahoma jump off the page, and I won’t be surprised if he improves on this surface.

RACE 5: MISS MYSTIQUE (#4)
Originator is probably the horse to beat despite the rise in class as she steps up to facing N2X company. She raced well against stakes company in a series of starts last year, so she may not have to improve much on her 3-year-old form to contend with this group. She’s a closing type, but she was pretty keen off the layoff last time, which bodes well for her chances in this paceless race. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead. At first glance, that would appear to benefit horses like Violent Times and Really Proud, though neither one is necessarily a need-the-lead type. Yet, I’m hoping that the actually beneficiary is the longshot Miss Mystique. I know she doesn’t look as fast as the two aforementioned fillies, but she was compromised by poor starts in each of her two turf starts this year. It’s possible that she’s developed gate problems, but I tend to think it was a fluke, given that she broke well in her dirt victory two back. Kendrick Carmouche wanted to be aggressive with her last time, but she ended up rushing up after that slow start, which cost her a better placing. This filly is a little inconsistent, but she’s good enough to compete against this crew when she’s at her best. She proved that back in November when she defeated the good allowance horse Mentality with an aggressive ride. I prefer her to a deep closer like Enthusiastic Gal, who probably doesn’t want to go this far.

RACE 8: BULLETIN (#7)
Front Run the Fed may go off as the favorite in this Better Talk now off his dazzling victory going seven furlongs at Belmont back in May. It’s hard to know what to make of that performance, given the turf conditions. There clearly was a significant amount of give in the ground, and Front Run the Fed obviously handled it whereas the others that finished behind did not seem to appreciate the going. It is true that a number of horses that finished behind him have returned to earn improved speed figures in their subsequent starts, but I’m not sure that’s necessarily useful information under these particular circumstances. This horse has to negotiate a route distance successfully for the first time, and it’s fair to question where he’s been for the past three months. I’m using him defensively, but I strongly prefer his main rival Bulletin. I’ve always been intrigued to see how this horse would do when they finally stretched him out in distance, since he’s bred to handle it. He’s by versatile sire City Zip, whose progeny can certainly go at least a mile, and he’s a half-brother to Tiz Miz Sue, a millionaire dirt router who won the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps a number of years ago. Javier Castellano has some options from this outside post position, and the Pace Projector indicates he’s faster than all of his rivals except perhaps Performer, who is also entered to run on Saturday. If that one comes out, Bulletin could find himself in a favorable position. I like the way he’s training into this race and I think he can get back on track in this spot. The other two horses that I want to include are Swamp Rat and Our Braintrust. The former actually ran very well in the Hall of Fame last time after becoming rank in the early stages. Our Braintrust is a question mark on the turf, but Mark Casse has always been pointing him to this surface and he worked well over it recently.

RACE 9: MO GOTCHA (#1)
It’s a little odd to say that a horse who has never crossed the wire first is the horse to beat in an allowance race, but that’s probably the case when it comes to Meet Me in L A. After racing very greenly in his sprint debut, this horse has really put things together in his last two starts. He gave Travers starter Highest Honors all that he could handle in that maiden event two back and then last time he probably would have won had Spice Island not herded him out in the late stages. It’s also possible that he didn’t appreciate the muddy surface that day and will revert to his performance two back over fast going. I’m using him prominently, but this is a pretty wide open affair. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, and there really is not much speed signed on for this race. The Pace Projector depicts Mo Gotcha on the lead, and while I don’t think this runner necessarily needs to be in front, he’s an intriguing option at a square price. He’s just not a sprinter, so he badly needed his debut sprinting. He’s really improved ever since they stretched him out in distance and he arguably would have done even better in those races had he not been compromised by his trips. He was hindered by a strong inside bias on both May 10 and then he was unwisely restrained in the early going on June 8 in a race where he appeared to be the potential speed. He was on a good rail for much of that race, but so was the winner. I think he’s going to relish this nine-furlong distance and I think we’ve yet to see the best he has to offer.

RACE 10: SWEET GISEL (#6)
I suppose the horse to beat in this finale is Augusta Moon. Todd Pletcher actually has very good statistics with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company on the turf, as he is 16 for 57 (28%, $2.11 ROI) with the move over the past 5 years. This filly certainly took to turf well enough in her debut over the surface last time. However, she got a little rank in the early going, which cost her some energy at the finish. Therefore, it’s no surprised that the blinkers are coming off for this next start on grass. I’m using her prominently, but I prefer some others. Art Thief makes plenty of sense in her first start off the claim for George Weaver. She had shown some promise in her first couple of turf starts in New Jersey, and she transferred that form to Belmont last time. She arguably could have finished much closer in that race, but she got buried inside coming to the top of the stretch and had to alter course with no place to go in the lane. I don’t the layoff since she ran two races in the span of 8 days back in June. My one reservation is that she’s been outrun in the early going in those prior starts, but the blinkers may put a bit more speed into her. I’m using her prominently, but I have to go back to Sweet Gisel as my top pick. I had been very interested in this filly in her turf debut last time, since she actually has plenty of pedigree to handle this surface. Unfortunately, it all went awry at the start, as she was squeezed back between horses and forced to rate in last. Joel Rosario did the right thing by not rushing her after that, but she was never in a position to win. That said, I thought she actually did show some affinity for turf in the stretch, as she was really accelerating while running past horses in the lane. That’s something she had never done on the dirt. This time, as long as she breaks cleanly, Rosario is supposed to send her to the front, which is typically an advantage in these one mile races on the inner course. She’s going to be a square price and I believe she’s a serious threat to win.