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Race 1
Approx. Post Time: 12 00 PM (Aug 8)
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by David Aragona
Race 1: 4 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 2: 1A - 6 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 3: 1 - 9 - 2 - 4
Race 4: 5 - 2 - 8 - 10
Race 5: 7 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 6: 1 - 4 - 8 - 2
Race 7: 7 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 8: 5 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 9: 4 - 1 - 7 - 5
Race 10: 5 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 11: 3 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 12: 6 - 2 - 9 - 3
For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.
RACE 1: BAY STREET MONEY (#4)
RACE 3: VIOLENT POINT (#1)
RACE 7: COME DANCING (#7)
RACE 8: PURE SENSATION (#5)
RACE 9: MY SISTER NAT (#4)
RACE 11: UNCLE CHUCK (#3)
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 6 - 1 - 8 - 7
Race 2: 8 - 7 - 6 - 4
Race 3: 7 - 6 - 9 - 8
Race 4: 6 - 7 - 5 - 8
Race 5: 6 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 6: 8 - 7 - 10 - 1
Race 7: 3 - 6 - 5 - 1
Race 8: 5 - 1 - 2 - 8
Race 9: 10 - 9 - 6 - 2
Race 10: 2 - 5 - 10 - 1
RACE 1: SPIRITUAL KING (#6)
Klickitat is obviously supposed to win this race if he runs back to his recent efforts and no one else steps up. However, you have to acknowledge that this runner has some character flaws. He’s been in a number of races in which he’s been short prices in the past and he just can’t seem to get the job done. He’s been in a position to win each of his last two starts and has just squandered the lead in the last sixteenth of a mile. Perhaps he’s finally caught the right field today, but I think there’s one interesting alternative. Spiritual King obviously regressed first off the trainer switch to Greg Sacco last time, but he wanted no part of sprinting. He was outrun early and Irad Ortiz basically made no effort to motivate him in the stretch. He should be much more comfortable stretching out in distance and he figures to play out as the speed here based on his races at Gulfstream. He does need to improve to beat Klickitat, but that 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned in his second start back in March certainly puts him in the mix.
Win: 6
Exacta Box: 1,6
RACE 3: SEEKING REVENGE (#7)
After the scratch of Music of Life, the logical horses likely to attract the most money are Sun Summers and Bean Counter. Neither of them do that much for me at short prices. I prefer her to Sun Summers, who defeated a very weak field last time after riding a strong rail the entire way. Bean Counter was a disappointment at Gulfstream over the winter and had to work harder than expected to win a subpar starter allowance race last time. They’re both on my tickets somewhere, but I think the horse who figures to offer the best value is Seeking Revenge. This filly is a little inconsistent, but she ran a nice race behind subsequent stakes winner Civil Union on June 21, and then followed that up with a deceptively strong performance against a salty allowance field at Monmouth two back. She wanted no part of 1 1/2 miles last time, but now she’s dropping back to the right distance at a far more realistic class level. Trainer John Stephens isn’t that well known on this circuit, but he can certainly send out a live longshot.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 6,9
RACE 5: JENNEMILY (#6)
Kept True and Bridlewood Cat battled in the Correction back in March at Aqueduct. They both fell just short in a close finish, but they got very different trips. Bridlewood Cat had obvious trouble as she stumbled badly at the start and was forced to rally from the back of the pack. However, she did get a fast pace to close into, which helped her cause. Kept True, on the other hand, was chasing that fast pace and appeared to have the race won in midstretch before the closers swallowed her up late. It’s arguable as to which horse ran the better race, but now plenty of time has passed and both are landing in a tough spot off the layoff. I slightly prefer Kept True, who has generally been a bit more reliable, but I’m always a little concerned about this filly going a step beyond 6 furlongs. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead. While I don’t necessarily expect this race to feature a slow pace, forward position should be an advantage. Along those lines, I’m interested in Jennemily, who figures to sit a good stalking trip. I acknowledge that she looks a little cheaper than some of her main rivals, but she really improved over the winter since switching into the Steve Asmussen barn. She earned a legitimate 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that victory on Feb. 17, and I’m not convinced that she isn’t actually better going shorter distances. Her return victory at Laurel was solid, and I think it’s notable that the horse she dueled with in the early going returned to win at the same level with an improved speed figure.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,4,7
RACE 6: ARMY WIFE (#8)
There’s a lot going on in this intriguing maiden event for two-year-old turf sprinters. Mad Maddy is probably the horse to beat based on her second-place finish against males last time. However, that was her third consecutive runner-up finish, and now she’s being asked to come back on just 12 days’ rest. I'm using her, but there are some intriguing first time starters in the mix. Credit Enhancement goes out for Chad Brown and appears to be working decently on the dirt, though Main Track Only entrant Saratoga Commando has gotten the better of her. She figures to take money primarily due to the connections, but I won’t be surprised if she performs well. Yet the firster who interests me most is Army Wife. Mike Maker sends out this daughter of Declaration of War, whose progeny win 20% of their turf sprint starts. This filly doesn’t have any overwhelming turf pedigree on the dam’s side, but her dam is by Arch so there’s enough breeding there. I really liked this filly’s one-furlong workout in 10 1/5 seconds at the OBS Sale in June and it appears that she’s been working steadily for Mike Maker ever since then. Most recently she put forth an encouraging workout, going easier in company with 3-year-old turf stakes winner Bodecream on the dirt on August 1. Mike Maker’s runners sometimes need a start, but his runners have been firing at this meet and the fact that Jose Ortiz is named to ride is a good sign.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,7,10
RACE 8: GIACOSA (#5)
Likely favorite Silky Blue showed that turf was clearly her preferred surface in that determined maiden victory last time. She got collared by Fresco in midstretch, but gamely battled back inside of that rival to get her nose down on the wire first. She was subsequently flattered when Fresco returned to win a NY-bred stakes with a 90 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She tries two turns and winners for the first time, but it’s not as if she has to improve much on that maiden effort to defeat this subpar field for the level. Plus, Jorge Duarte is 5 for 21 (24%, $4.48 ROI) with last-out maiden winners. She’s a deserving favorite, but I am interested in one of her rivals at a better price. Giacosa looked like a filly who would benefit from experience when she made her debut last year and that has proven to be the case. She has taken a step forward with each start so far this year, most recently just missing third against a better field at this level three weeks ago. She deserves extra credit for passing horses in the stretch that day, as the early pace was on the slow side. Her regular rider Manny Franco sides with Silky Blue instead, but Tyler Gaffalione is an ample replacement. She figures to be right there if she continues progressing at this rate and this race is supposed to feature some pace for her close into. The one other horse I’d throw in at a square price is Tatterazzi. It seemed like she really improved over the winter at Tampa Bay Downs and this is an easier field than she faced last time when pitted against males.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2
Trifecta: 5 with 1,2,8 with 1,2,8
RACE 9: JACKIE’S WARRIOR (#10)
Steve Asmussen holds a strong hand in this Saratoga Special as he sends out a pair of short prices in Cazadero and Jackie’s Warrior. Cazadero is obviously the more accomplished of the two, as he comes off an impressive victory in the Grade 3 Bashford Manor. He has been the most precocious member of this group, but it remains to be seen if he can continue to maintain his edge as these 2-year-olds continue to develop through the summer. This is a much tougher field than he faced in the Bashford Manor and it’s not as if his sped figures make him some kind of standout in this field. I prefer his stablemate Jackie’s Warrior off his debut victory in June. This horse had to overcome a bit of adversity early in that race, as he got outrun to the early lead and had to briefly steady as the field broke for the far turn. Many first time starters would have gotten discouraged at that point, but this horse got right back in the bridle and finished off the race powerfully. He has trained exceptionally well since that race, actually outworking Cazadero in a drill on July 26. I like that he’s drawn outside of the other speeds in a race that could feature a quick pace and he just appears to be built like a horse that should handle the tougher fight that he’ll have on his hands. Yet I don’t want to dismiss the horse that Jackie’s Warrior defeated in his maiden win. Therideofalifetime stayed on well to be second that day and came out of that race to impressively break his maiden at Keeneland with a field-best 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He’s already handled the distance and has proven that he can rate off horses. Ignacio Correas has poor numbers with horses coming off maiden wins, but I won’t be shocked if this colt runs well again.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,6,7,9
Trifecta: 10 with 6,9 with 1,2,6,7,9
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 4 - 6 - 8
Race 2: 5 - 2 - 6 - 4
Race 3: 2 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 4: 2 - 6 - 11 - 12
Race 5: 6 - 7 - 2B - 8
Race 6: 4 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 7: 2 - 8 - 3 - 4
Race 8: 6 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 9: 5 - 6 - 1 - 10
RACE 1: LOVE CODE (#3)
Macho Jack is obviously the horse to beat as he makes his first start in the Rudy Rodriguez barn. If he returns in the same form that we saw from him last year, he’s probably going to beat this field. However, this horse only came into Rudy Rodriguez’s barn very recently and was notably a vet scratch here on July 22. Some outfits will drop to get a win at Saratoga, but this horse moving all the way down to compete for the $20,000 tag does raise some eyebrows. I’ll use him, but I think there are some others worth considering. Cause I Said So should appreciate the turnback in distance and Boss Life has run reasonably well in a few of his dirt starts. Yet the horse that could fly under the radar here is Love Code. This colt made his debut on turf for Linda Rice at Belmont, and didn’t do much running while checking in seventh. Yet it’s worth keeping in mind that Linda Rice, in addition to not having her first time starters cranked up to win, doesn’t always start her horses out on their intended surface. While this colt’s dam Ahvee’s Destiny was a turf horse, she hasn’t been much of a turf producer and Honor Code has been much more of a dirt sire so far in his stallion career. It appeared to me that Love Code wasn’t really handling the grass last time and she’s apparently worked well since the claim by Dermot Magner.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,6,8
RACE 2: WICKED AMBER (#5)
Keota is likely to go off as a heavy favorite once again despite losing as the 3-5 choice at this same condition last month at Belmont. This mare was clearly capable of dominating a field like this as recently as this past spring, but all of those superior performances came for the Jason Servis barn. She had been merely ordinary for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin before coming into Jason Servis’s care, and she apparently reverted to her prior form in her first start for Chad Brown last time. She may still win this race if she merely repeats her last effort, but she hardly deserves to be a prohibitive favorite based solely on that performance. I want to search for an alternative, and the one that intrigues me most is Wicked Amber. I understand that it’s difficult to support these connections, especially in a turf race at Saratoga. Yet Wicked Amber has nevertheless run quite well on the turf at very big prices before. She surprised a maiden field at 10-1 at Aqueduct last year, and has obviously taken a step forward since then. She didn’t get the savviest ride in her return from the layoff in June and then had issues in two subsequent starts. Yet she appeared to benefit from the rider switch to Luis Cardenas last time, as she outran her 67-1 odds to get up for fourth in a much tougher spot. Not only was she closing fastest of all at the end of that race, but she did so into a pace that was slow and mostly held together on the front end. If she repeats that performance, she’s a serious threat to beat this field.
Win/Place: 5
Trifecta: 2,5 with 2,5 with 4,6,7
RACE 5: GUARDIAN MOON (#6)
Among those with experience, Lollygag is clearly the horse to beat. She made her debut against open company at Keeneland and put in a respectable effort to close for fourth going today’s distance. That may not have been the toughest open company heat, but the form should translate well to this New York-bred race. Furthermore, she could have more tactical speed in her second start, as she was actually closer to the pace immediately after the start last time before dropping out of position on the backstretch. I’m using her prominently, but there is a first time starter in this field who could be difficult to get past. Guardian Moon debuts for trainer Jorge Abreu, who is as dangerous as any trainer on the grounds with first time starters. Over the past 5 years he is 17 for 72 (24%, $3.84 ROI) with first time starters overall and 8 for 52 (15%, $3.50 ROI) with firsters on turf. This filly has enough pedigree to handle grass, being by 20% turf sprint sire Declaration of War. Yet what really points her out as the horse to beat in this spot are her workouts leading into this race. Abeu gave her a spin over the turf on July 19 and she worked in company with 4-year-old turf stakes winner Atomic Blonde. Guardian Moon tugged along outside of her company early in that work and then ran away from her classy mate under light pressure in the late stages. Then most recently on August 1, she blew out three furlongs on dirt and showed off high speed. She began the work in company with an unraced stablemate but quickly proceeded to rocket away from that rival, opening up about 15 lengths under no pressure at all. This filly can run. The one longshot that I would want to throw into the mix is Cara's Dreamer. This filly didn't do any running in her debut, but she's bred to do much better on the turf.
Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 2,7,8
RACE 7: TIZAHRA (#2)
This 11-furlong optional claiming event has attracted an evenly matched field. Perhaps Dyna Passer will vie for favoritism based on her stakes form from last year. Yet you have to be a little concerned that she doesn’t appear to have taken a step forward as a 4-year-old. She had to work harder than expected to win an N1X race going 1 1/2 miles in March and then was never really a threat against a relatively soft stakes field in the River Memories last time. I won’t be shocked if she does better second off the layoff, but I didn’t want to take a short price on her. I think the horse to beat is probably Mighty Scarlett, who has kept better company in her recent races at this level in Kentucky. She’s yet to try this distance, but she has been competitive going 9.5 and 10 furlongs, I don’t view the stretch-out as a major issue. The biggest knock against her is that she hasn’t actually won a race since this meet in 2018. She’s been involved in some close decisions since then and just hasn’t been able to seal the deal. I’ll use her prominently in all slots, but I wanted to find more value in top my pick. Tizahra interests me as she seeks her third victory in a row. It seems like this 4-year-old filly has finally put it all together, especially since Ian Wilkes removed the blinkers two starts back. I liked her effort at Keeneland last time as she stayed on gamely in the late stages to get up over a mile. This will be her first time stretching out to a marathon distance, but she’s bred to go this far. Her dam won a 9-furlong stakes on dirt at Saratoga, and this filly is a half-sister to Curlin’s Pride, a solid allowance type who ran two of her best races going this distance on turf.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,5,8
Trifecta: 2 with 3,8 with 3,4,5,6,7,8
RACE 8: JOLTING JOE (#6)
I think the main strategy in this race is to play against Dream Bigger, especially if he’s a short price. The colt clearly has talent, but he’s questionable both to get 1 1/16 miles and to handle the turf. There really isn’t much turf pedigree on the top or bottom of his pedigree and it seems like the connections just entered here in hopes of the race coming off the turf. The two main players among those with turf experience are Fresco and Jolting Joe, and I strongly prefer the latter. Fresco will try to wheel back in two weeks after beating fillies in New York Stallion Series Stakes. I’m not particularly concerned about the quick turnaround, but the rise in class could be problematic. She was beating a very weak field last time and meets a serious rival in Jolting Joe this time. While Jolting Joe has never crossed the wire first, he’s run faster than Fresco is all of his starts, including those as a 2-year-old. He faced stakes horses like Art Collector and King Guillermo last year, and showed minor improvement in his 3-year-old debut last time. That was a strong field he met at Ellis Park, and Jolting Joe ran well within the context of that race, setting an honest pace before gamely battling back when challenged in the stretch. Mike Maker’s horses have been running exceptionally well and I think this colt may start living up to the high standard set by his accomplished half-brother Somelikeithotbrown.
Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 1,4
Trifecta: 6 with 1 with ALL
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: CANCELLED
Race 2: 6 - 3 - 4 - 8
Race 3: 2 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 4: 4 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 5: 5 - 6 - 9 - 7
Race 6: 5 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 7: 1 - 5 - 7 - 3
Race 8: 6 - 5 - 8 - 7
Race 9: 6 - 2 - 3
Race 10: 9 - 6 - 5 - 2
RACE 4: NONNA MADELINE (#4)
Golden Award is obviously the most likely winner of this Summer Colony – if she finishes the race. And given her recent record in that department, it’s a big ‘if.’ She’s been eased in two of her last four starts, and those performances have left trainer Bill Mott scratching his head. She appears to travel well early in her races and then just refuses to keep trying, essentially pulling herself up. Adding to the mystery is that she ran quite well in both starts in between those two non-efforts, winning the Turnback the Alarm and finishing a good second over a wet track she might not like in the Royal Delta. I won’t be surprised if she wins this race, but she’s hard to trust as the favorite. Todd Pletcher has entered a trio of fillies against her, and I think two of them are viable win candidates. Bellera is the more obvious fit for this race, having finishing third going this distance in the Delaware Handicap in her most recent start. Yet I didn’t think she had any major excuse not to be second that day, as she got a perfect trip setting a slow pace and just couldn’t quicken with her rivals at the quarter pole. She had run a few decent races as a 3-year-old last year, but I’m not thrilled with her recent form. I prefer Nonna Madeline, who will attempt the 1 1/8 miles distance for the first time. I would have been skeptical about her going this far when she was a younger horse, but she appears to have matured into a capable dirt router. She couldn’t reel in the fleet-footed Letruska in her last two starts, but nevertheless earned solid speed figures both times while finishing well clear of the rest of her competition. She figures to get a good trip stalking a moderate pace and I just think she’s coming into this in the best form.
Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 1,2
RACE 6: CONTROL GROUP (#5)
This race becomes slightly less appealing following the scratch of I Love Jaxson, who figured to be favored. I'm not against his remaining entrymate Twisted Tom, who is competing at his favorite distance here. Yet he needs some pace help up front that he may not receive. Doups Point now figures to be a short price merely due to his connections, but he has found this N2X allowance condition to be a challenge, as he’s failed to finish better than third in 5 attempts at this level. He looked ready to ascend to some tougher spots last summer, but his form has tailed off a little since then. You can make some valid excuses for his recent losses, but I worry that he’s going to get overbet here as he goes out for the hottest barn on the grounds. My top pick is Control Group. Like many in this field, he’s seen better days, having won New York-bred stakes in his heyday. It appeared that he had gone completely off form earlier this year, even when racing for Jason Servis, but Rudy Rodriguez got him back on track last time. He was allowed to set a moderate pace, but nevertheless displayed improved early speed before romping to an easy victory. That effort came against cheaper, but he still earned a competitive speed figure. Now makes his first start off the claim for Orlando Noda, whose runners have been outperforming expectations at this meet. I believe he can get in front of these and take them all the way going his favorite 9-furlong distance.
Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 1,3,4,6
Trifecta: 5 with 1,4 with 1,3,4,6
RACE 8: SUPER DUDE (#6)
Following the scratch of Zoomer, you can make a valid case for any of the remaining 7 runners in this field. I had difficulty deciphering how the public would bet this one, but I would imagine that Intrepid Heart will attract his fair share of support on the class drop. This Todd Pletcher trainee was once considered a top contender for the 2019 Belmont Stakes, but he’s had trouble building upon that promising start to his career. He never got involved in his 4-year-old debut at Gulfstream, but did rebound to get the victory last time out at Churchill. While he won his N2X allowance condition that day, it was a fairly weak race for the level, and I don’t believe he’s actually getting much class relief despite dropping in for the $50,000 tag. There was a time when Grumps Little Tots would have been considered a formidable presence in a race like this, but he’s difficult to trust since leaving Jason Servis’s barn. That said, it’s not as if his form completely fell apart first time out for Rob Atras at Delaware last time. He has a right to build upon that effort and getting back out to 1 1/8 miles may help him. I’ll use him, but I prefer some horses who have proven that they’re in top form. Han Sense just held off a late charge from Super Dude to be second in a $40,000 claimer last month at Belmont. While it might appear that Han Sense ran the superior race from a quick glance at the fractions, the track was playing very fast in the dirt routes on July 11. As fast as the pace appeared to be, it held together and closers had trouble making up ground. Therefore, I’m inclined to upgrade the effort of Super Dude. He attempted to chase those taxing fractions, looked to be in trouble at the five-sixteenths pole, but then leveled off well in deep stretch to finish best of all. Mike Maker’s runners have been firing on all cylinders lately and this horse has proven that he can get the distance.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,5,7,8
Trifecta: 6 with 5,8 with 1,2,4,5,7,8
by David Aragona
Race 1: 4 - 7 - 3 - 2
Race 2: 2 - 5 - 7 - 4
Race 3: 1A - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 4: 8 - 7 - 2 - 3
Race 5: 7 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 6: 8 - 6 - 10 - 9
Race 7: 5 - 1 - 8 - 2
Race 8: 11 - 6 - 8 - 3
Race 9: 6 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 10: 2 - 9 - 8 - 3
For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.
RACE 2: MILLS (#2)
RACE 6: RIGHT TO FREEDOM (#8)
RACE 7: SHIRAZ (#5)
RACE 10: TACTICIAN (#2)
by David Aragona
Race 1: 2 - 3 - 4 - 1A
Race 2: 4 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 3: 9 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 4: 3 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 5: 3 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 6: 6 - 2 - 7 - 8
Race 7: 6 - 8 - 7 - 10
Race 8: 8 - 7 - 1 - 3
Race 9: 5 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 10: 8 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 11: 2 - 6 - 5 - 1
Race 12: 3 - 7 - 9 - 2
For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.
RACE 1: ZUNITH MOON (#2)
RACE 2: EN WYE CEE (#4)
RACE 6: STAGE LEFT (#6)
RACE 7: SHAWDYSHAWDYSHAWDY (#6)
RACE 9: TOM'S D'ETAT (#5)
RACE 10: THREE TECHNIQUE (#8)
RACE 11: CROSS BORDER (#2)
RACE 12: SWEET BYE AND BYE (#3)
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 2 - 3 - 7 - 6
Race 2: 4 - 8 - 7 - 6
Race 3: 6 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 4: 4 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 5: 12 - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 6: 8 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 7: 4 - 8 - 10 - 3
Race 8: 9 - 1 - 10 - 8
Race 9: 5 - 4 - 9 - 6
Race 10: 7 - 3 - 9 - 8
RACE 2: BUSINESS CYCLE (#4)
Getoffmyback is the horse to beat as he seeks his third consecutive victory, and his second since being claimed by Michelle Nevin. He was in for the claiming waiver last time and delivered one of his typical good efforts, stalking the pace before taking over with authority late. He’s now back at the same level and in for the tag this time. The one concern with him is that he hasn’t always been the most consistent sort, so it’s fair to wonder if he can consecutively string together three of his best races. Many of his main rivals are closers, so they’re going to have to hope that someone presses Getoffmyback early. I’m not against horses like O Shea Can U See and Zonic, but I thought another was more appealing. My top pick is Business Cycle. This horse won some cheaper races for Gary Gullo at Belmont before getting claimed by Lolita Shivmangal last time. Some might view the fact that this horse last that race as a sign that he regressed, but I think the opposite is true. July 10 at Belmont was a day that featured a strong speed bias and Business Cycle was one of the only horses on the entire card who made a significant run from the back of the pack. This 7-year-old gelding closed nicely in the late stages behind Bitumen and he has the back speed figures to compete with these if he can maintain his form. Obviously these connections aren’t the easiest to trust, at least he’s going to be a square price.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,6,7,8
RACE 5: IMINCOMUNICADO (#12)
There isn’t much turf form to sink your teeth into in this maiden claimer, so it stands to reason that a first-time starter like Silent Empress could go favored. It seems like every Christophe Clement runner has been getting overbet in light of his hot streak to start this meet. Yet there are reasons to think this filly will take to turf. She’s out of a dam who was a 3-time winner in turf sprints and her best half-sibling is turf winner Quiet Out East. I’m using her, but I think there are more interesting alternatives at better prices. Among those with experience, Love Me Tomorrow makes plenty of sense. There isn’t that much early speed signed on for this race, and she could attain an advantage in the early going. She tends to hit a wall in the final furlong, so cutting back to this 5 1/2 furlong distance should suit her. My top pick is Imincomunicado, who returns to the turf for the first time since her career debut over this course last year. She was facing tougher maiden special weight foes that day, and put forth a respectable effort to close for fourth. The top three finishers have all returned to do nice things since that race. Imincomunicado obviously didn’t do any running in her subsequent starts, but those came on dirt. Now she’s back in Derek Ryan’s barn and moving to her preferred surface while getting a realistic drop in class. Furthermore, while you can’t say anything positive about her finishes in those dirt races, at least she showed improved speed in those two efforts.
Win: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 2,4,5,6
RACE 6: JEROME AVENUE (#8)
The horse to beat is clearly Empire Line, who exits an unusually strong $20,000 N3L claimer at Belmont. A number of horses were dropping in class for that spot, and this gelding did well to stay on for second behind the very fast Riken while drawing well clear of the rest. His career hasn’t quite panned out as his connections might have hoped, but his last race proves that he can still produce competitive efforts at this level. Furthermore, there isn’t much speed signed on here and he may be able to control the pace on the front end. I’m hardly against him, but there are others to consider. Zealous makes some sense as he drops in for a tag for just the second time in his career. He ran a number of races that would be good enough to beat this field in 2019, but he has to prove that he’s still capable of producing top form as a 6-year-old. I’m not as confident in the chances of Cobble Hill, who also figures to attract support. He was defeating vastly inferior company in his last couple of starts and I think he finds himself in deep waters here. My top pick is Jerome Avenue. This horse lost a heartbreaker in the first race of this meet, making a decisive move to the lead in midstretch before getting nailed on the wire. The 9-furlong distance of that race was probably a little too far for him, so he should appreciate the cutback. Furthermore, his overall dirt form is better than it appears. He did well to hang on for second behind late-running Creative Style after setting a fast pace on Feb. 1, and then he should have won on Feb. 29, but lost a ton of ground on the turn after stumbling at the start. Mertkan Kantarmaci is a solid 14 for 57 (25%, $2.48 ROI) first off the claim on dirt at NYRA over the past 5 years.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 1,8 with 1,8 with 2,3,5,6
RACE 7: BLANKET OF ROSES (#4)
This is as competitive an event as you’ll find on the entire card. A few of these won races at Tampa Bay Downs over the winter, including Me and Mr. C who beat a solid allowance field on April 1. The runner-up from that spot, Tabled, returned to win beating the stakes-placed Mr. Kringle next time out, so that was a strong affair. Me and Mr. C had no shot against a tougher group in the Grade 3 Kent last time, but now he’s dropping into a realistic spot for a trainer who can connect with some prices on this circuit. Yet the biggest dangers could come from the Mike Maker barn, as his stable has been firing on all cylinders lately. Dynadrive figures to attract support after winning an off-the-turf race at Gulfstream last time, but I prefer his other horse Blanket of Roses. He actually defeated Dynadrive at Gulfstream back in February, albeit while getting a fast pace to close into. Yet he ran well at Turfway after that and then found himself in a tough spot off the layoff at Churchill Downs last time. The pace of that race didn’t develop in a manner that suited him, and he was never going to catch the talented duo of Vintage Print and Fancy Liquor, the latter of which returned to hit the board in the Transylvania at Keeneland. As long as the early pace is honest, I think this horse will be mowing them down late.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,8,10
Trifecta: 4 with 8,10 with 2,3,8,10
RACE 9: SHIPPY (#5)
There are many viable contenders in this wide open Coronation Cup. A few of these exit the Lady Shipman from last month at Belmont, in which She’s My Type arguably ran the best race. She was very wide on the far turn and did well to close for second. Yet she could go favored here as it seems Christophe Clement’s runners have been getting overbet, and I’m not totally convinced that less distance will suit her. Miss J McKay finished behind She’s My Type and winner Bredenbury in that Lady Shipman, but I won’t be surprised if she’s able to turn the tables here. This filly showed a lot of ability sprinting on turf last year and ran deceptively well to just miss in the Steward Manor at Aqueduct. She was a little flat in her return, but she certainly has a right to take a step forward. Wesley Ward sends out a pair, both of whom are legitimate contenders. Artie’s Princess figures to attract some attention, having won 3 of 4 starts in Canada. She ran a legitimately fast speed figure to win her return race on that synthetic course. Yet it’s rarely a good gamble to bet horses trying a new surface for the first time at short prices. I want to go in a different direction with longshot Shippy. This filly showed true sprint ability right from the start last year in her Laurel debut, prompting her to go favored in the Schuylerville. She’s primarily raced on dirt during her career, but her lone turf try at Gulfstream over the winter is better than it seems. She lost some momentum following a longshot into the stretch and hit her best stride late before galloping out impressively. I think it’s interesting that George Weaver has been intent on switching her to grass and she could fly under the radar in this competitive field.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 4,6,8,9
Trifecta: 5 with 4,9 with 4,6,8,9
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