TimeformUS Race Analysis

Picks & Plays for Monday, September 4

by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Now Available: Exclusive Saratoga betting strategies and unlimited TimeformUS PPs for the Saratoga meet!
Get exclusive access to betting tickets for David Aragona’s Top Plays for Labor Day, including multi-race bet constructions and other exotic tickets. Also get exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more

PICKS

Race 1:   8 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 2:   6 - 14 - 3 - 15
Race 3:   5 - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 4:   7 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 5:   15 - 14 - 3 - 10
Race 6:   2 - 9 - 4 - 5
Race 7:   2 - 1 - 9 - 6
Race 8:   11 - 1 - 7 - 6
Race 9:   7 - 8 - 6 - 3
Race 10:   1 - 2 - 15 - 3

TOP PLAYS

RACE 3: DRIVING ME CRAZY (#5)
I’m not getting too creative here, but I just think Driving Me Crazy is a very likely winner of this race as the favorite. When Jason Servis gets these cheaper claimers in form, they tend to keep running well. Over the past five years, he is 20 for 47 (43%, $2.48 ROI) with last-out winners running for a tag of $20,000 or less on the dirt. I like that this horse is drawn outside of the other speeds. I’ll primarily use him with No Hiding Place, who is getting some needed class relief. These types of drastic dropdowns are somewhat concerning, but I like that this horse showed some signs of life in his last start, staying in contention until the late stages against a much tougher field. Some may think that this race will come apart and set up for Sir Bond, but I’m skeptical of his current form. His last race is somewhat phony since he was closing up a very good rail.

RACE 6: IMPACT PLAYER (#2)
Engage is likely to go off as your favorite in this race following his solid runner-up finish in his debut last month. That day, he battled through fast fractions before just getting worn down by Hopeful entrant National Flag in the late stages. He clearly deserves respect, but I think there’s at least one other high quality runner in this field. I’m not usually one to pick first-time starters, especially in a race that features an experienced foe like Engage, but I think Impact Player is a colt with a very bright future. He put in a very impressive 9 4/5 second breeze when going a furlong at the OBS sale in April, and sold for $350,000. He’s got a somewhat unusual pedigree, being by City Zip out of a Halo Sunshine mare, but the dam is a half-sister to the undefeated superstar Candy Ride. It’s taken him a little while to get to the races, but he’s certainly been working well during this meet, even outrunning Pletcher’s debut winner Coltandmississippi in a work earlier this August. Other runners to consider here are Wellwest, who has been working with Ralph Nicks’s Sunday debut winner Caledonia Road, and He’s Bankable, a half-brother to graded stakes-winning sprinter Awesome Slew.

RACE 7: TAKEOVER TARGET (#2)
Heart to Heart is the horse to beat, and the one they all have to catch. He’s raced sparingly in 2017, but he’s run well in all of his starts. He nearly held on to win the Grade 1 Makers 46 Mile despite having to rate in the early going, and then he was done in by a fast pace in the Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita last time. Brian Lynch has said that this race is a prep for the Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland in the fall, but I’m sure they’d love to pick up a win here regardless. He’s definitely in my play, but I think he could prove vulnerable here. My top pick is Takeover Target, who figures to have benefitted from his return effort in the Lure last time. He got a great trip that day, but just seemed to flatten out late after working his way into the clear in the stretch. He’s worked well since that effort, and there is some rain in the forecast on Sunday. If the turf comes up “good” or worse, he will be very dangerous since he likes a turf course with some give.

RACE 8: B ROCKETT (#11) / FREE N CLEAR (#1)
I could be falling into a trap here, but I just can’t get past the class edge that B Rockett appears to have in this race. I know that she’s not exactly a win machine, but she’s run pretty well against fields that are much tougher than the one she faces today. The recent addition of blinkers seems to have really woken her up, as she’s shown improved tactical speed in her races. If she runs back to either of her last two efforts at Indiana Downs, I don’t think anyone in this race can beat her. That said, they still have to run the race, and she didn’t draw a great post position for this distance. At a bigger price, I have to use longshot Free N Clear as a backup. I know that her 2017 form looks terrible, but she’s had excuse after excuse in her races, culminating in the ridiculous trip she worked out last time when making a premature move. She finally draws a good post position and has back races that make her competitive.

RACE 9: GIVEMEAMINIT (#7)
There is a lot going on in this extremely deep running of the Hopeful. The likely favorite is Mojovation, who was a well-bet debut winner of a maiden race in late July, out of which Bourbon Resolution won his next start. However, he was racing on a strong rail that day and may not have run quite as well as it appears. He’s going to be under the gun from the start, as Oskar Blues, Psychoanalyze, and Sporting Chance all have speed to his outside. Sanford winner Firenze Fire also deserves a look given the strong meet that Jason Servis enjoying, but I like Free Drop Billy out of that race. He’s an improving colt for Dale Romans who is bred to get better with distance and this race may really fit his closing style. I’ll definitely be using him, but my top selection is actually the maiden, Givemeaminit. I know that today’s rival Sporting Chance beat him easily that day, but Givemeaminit was the only horse making a late run in that race and was really running on strongly through the lane after going wide on the turn. He’s bred to get better with distance and Dallas Stewart gets a 100 Trainer Rating when teaming up with Joel Rosario. I think this horse has a bright future and would not be surprised if he springs the upset here.

Picks & Plays for Sunday, September 3

by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

Now Available: Exclusive Saratoga betting strategies and unlimited TimeformUS PPs for the Saratoga meet!
On every Friday through Sunday at the Saratoga meet, get exclusive access to betting tickets for David Aragona’s Top Plays, including multi-race bet constructions and other exotic tickets. Also get exclusive access to David's Highlight Horses, as well as opinions on all stakes races. Learn more

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 2:   2 - 1A - 12 - 11
Race 3:   5 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 4:   3 - 6 - 7 - 2
Race 5:   5 - 8 - 3 - 7
Race 6:   5 - 1A - 13 - 7
Race 7:   9 - 3 - 11 - 10
Race 8:   10 - 2 - 7 - 1/1A
Race 9:   1 - 7 - 4 - 9
Race 10:   3 - 4 - 6 - 9
Race 11:   12 - 9 - 6 - 1

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: HALCYON (#2)
With this race coming off the turf and moving out to 9 furlongs, Spa Treatment is clearly the horse to beat. If she can run back to her lone dirt route effort from Aqueduct over the winter, she will be awfully tough for this field to beat. That said, she is drawn in the far-outside slot, which is a disadvantage at this distance. While I’m not interested in the horses that are going to get bet off positive turf form, I am interested in a runner that hasn’t run all that well on turf. Halcyon hasn’t shown much in either of her two starts, but I wonder if she might not really be a turf horse. Her dam was a grass stakes winner, but she has now produced two other foals to race and both of those have excelled on dirt, not turf. She showed improved speed last time, and there isn’t much early zip in this field. Joel Rosario may try to lead them all the way at a price.

RACE 4: SHORT KAKES (#3)
This race centers around the runners dropping out of tougher spots. Anna Rae gets some needed class relief, but I haven’t loved any of her recent starts and think she’s beatable at a short price. Todd Pletcher has a pair of runners in here, and there are some reasons to consider both of them. However, I want to go in a different direction and take a shot with Short Kakes at a better price. While it may not seem like it at first glance, I actually think this filly will appreciate the turn-back in distance. She seems to handle both dirt and turf, and I think it was the distance that was preventing her from doing her best work in recent starts. She actually ran quite well in her last dirt start after setting a solid early pace. There isn’t much speed in this field, and the Pace Projector is predicting she will be on or near the lead in a situation favoring the front-runners.

RACE 6: INFIELD IS IN (#5)
The focus of this race will be on the Main Track Only entrants now that it has been moved to the main track at seven furlongs. The most intriguing of those is Transfer Pricing, whose dam was a mildly successful dirt sprinter. He’s been working well over the main track here, and appears to be well-meant for this surface. There are two horses coming out of the seventh race on August 12. The only likely to take the most money is MTO Lone Sailor. After all, he was making his debut that day and has a right to move forward in his second start. However, the runner that actually had the tough trip in that race was Infield Is In, who was eliminated at the top of the stretch when a rival to his inside bore out badly and carried him into the center of the track. Going back to this colt’s debut, he didn’t run that badly behind Psychoanalyze, who will be in the Hopeful on Monday. If he can improve off that effort, he has a real shot in what appears to be a mediocre field. The low-profile connections will ensure a generous price.

RACE 8: BRIDE STREET (#10)
The deserving favorite in this race is Ladies Day, who has run fine at the N1X allowance level recently without really threatening to win any of those races. She handled a sloppy track well enough in her career debut at the Spa last summer and just makes plenty of sense in this race. Her only flaw is her lack of early speed, which could become an issue in a race that features few front-runners. For that reason, I want to take a shot against her with Bride Street. I know Kiaran McLaughlin does not have strong numbers with horses returning from layoffs in dirt sprints, but I think this filly finds herself in the right spot this afternoon. She won her career debut sprinting on dirt, and then encountered adverse circumstances in her next two starts. She was pinched back at the start and forced to rate over an inside speed biased track on January 14, and then she got an impossible wide trip going a distance that is likely too far for her on February 25. I think Joel Rosario will be looking to send her right out to the front today, and I think she can take this field all the way if she runs back to her debut effort.

RACE 9: STORMY’S SONG (#1)
There is other speed in this race, but if Stormy’s Song breaks well this time, she is supposed to find herself on the early lead. She just lost all chance at the start last time when she turned her head just as the gates open, costing herself a few lengths of position. She never appeared comfortable racing at the back of the pack on a day when the main track at Saratoga appeared to be favoring front-runners (indicated by the red color-coding Race Rating in PPs). Now she’s drawn the rail and Joel Rosario has to send her this time. If she runs back to her debut, in which she crushed a field of maidens after setting swift early fractions, I think she’ll be tough to run down.

RACE 10: GOLDEN MISCHIEF (#3)
There is a ton of early speed in this Prioress, so it’s no surprise that the Pace Projector is predicting a fast early pace. Horses like Student Body, Sister Kan, Royal Inheritance, and Downtown Mama are all coming into the race off solid wire-to-wire wins, but they are going to face a much more difficult scenario here. Oddly enough, there are very few closers in the race, which makes Golden Mischief all the more appealing. She is one of the only fillies in the field that has shown the ability to rate well off the pace and put in a strong stretch bid. She’s been kept closer to the early paces in her recent starts, but that’s because she’s been in some short fields that haven’t featured much early speed. This time, she can settle at the back and make one run, just as she did when running down today’s rival Vertical Oak as a 2-year-old.

Picks & Plays for Saturday, September 2

by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   9 - 1 - 7 - 6
Race 2:   2 - 6 - 10 - 4
Race 3:   9 - 3 - 6 - 7
Race 4: 7 - 5 - 11 - 8
Race 5:   2 - 3 - 5 - 8
Race 6:   5 - 9 - 2 - 1
Race 7:   6 - 1/1A - 4 - 9
Race 8:   6 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 9:   1 - 4 - 9 - 2
Race 10:   1 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 11:   2 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 12:   4 - 5 - 7 - 8

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: BORSA VENTO (#9)
I suppose Driven by Thunder is the horse to beat, but I'm never a big fan of these dropdowns for trainer Todd Pletcher. His one strong dirt race came at Gulfstream Park over the winter, and he hasn't gotten back to that effort since. I'm trying to beat him with Borso Vento, who tries to make it two in a row after winning his maiden here a few weeks ago. The Steve Asmussen barn has really picked things up in the past few weeks, and this horse actually beat a decent field to win in reasonably fast time. Furthermore, he was claimed off Nick Zito, and horses getting claimed away from that barn are 11 for 41 (27 percent, $2.19 ROI) over the past five years.

RACE 3: FROSTY GAL (#9)
I respect likely favorite Bluegrass Jamboree, who has run well in both starts against winners. She has good tactical speed and should work out another fine trip, but I just don’t see her offering much value. Quick on the Draw, earned a competitive speed figure last time when she was clearly well-meant for H. James Bond. However, that win came against much weaker company and she may have to improve on that effort as she steps up in class. I’ll use both, but my top selection is Frosty Gal. I know that there isn’t much pace in this field and Frosty Gal is a closer, but she’s drawn well on the outside and can work her way up into mid-pack early. This filly showed some potential as a two-year-old, and really ran well in her three-year-old debut back in April. She hasn’t been on a fast dirt track since then, so I’m willing to be forgiving of those last two races. She gets a positive rider switch to Manny Franco in this race, and Barclay Tagg has quietly been having a very successful Saratoga meet.

RACE 5: BERKS COUNTY (#2)
Funtastic got a perfect trip to win last time in his turf debut, as he found a seam down inside in the stretch. Let's Get Loud won in more dominant fashion, but he did so against a vastly inferior group of maiden claimers. I'll use both of these Chad Brown runners, but I think this is a spot where we can get a little more creative. The runner who interests me most from a value standpoint is Berks County. I know that this horse needs to improve, but he's run better than it seems in both races this year. He actually did well to hang around until late in the James Murphy Stakes despite chasing a fast pace. Then last time, he had no chance over a boggy turf course that he clearly didn't handle. I like that he's returning in an ambitious spot, and he can use his tactical speed and inside draw to work out a ground-saving trip.

RACE 8: THAIS (#6)
This is basically a two-horse race between Browse and Thais. The former runner is obviously the horse to beat off her strong effort here on July 22. That day, she was setting a strong early pace for the distance and held on well to be second in a race that collapsed late. She's arguably facing a softer field here, with the lone exception of her main rival from the Chad Brown barn. Thais makes her U.S. debut, and Brown has fantastic numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 5 for 10 (50 percent, $3.95 ROI) with foreign shippers in turf routes at Saratoga. This filly kept very good company in France, and she showed good tactical speed in those races, which should benefit her going this tricky one-mile distance on the inner course.

RACE 9: MR HAVERCAMP (#1)
Make no mistake: Bricks and Mortar is clearly the horse to beat in the Saranac. He has done absolutely nothing wrong in his four career starts and just seems to find a way to win. He’s stretching out to nine furlongs this time, but that seems like a minor obstacle for this versatile colt. I think he has the upper hand over those coming out of the Hall of Fame Stakes, but he faces an intriguing new face in Woodbine shipper Mr Havercamp. I'm usually not one to get caught up in the hype around lightly raced horses, but I get the sense that this gelding might be very special. Rarely will you see a horse dominate a turf race like he did that group of allowance runners three weeks ago. This is a huge step up in class, but I have to think these connections are shipping to Saratoga because they think they have a real chance. Furthermore, the fact that they’re running back on such short rest seems like a positive. Over the past five years, Catherine Day Phillips is 6 for 20 (30 percent, $2.73 ROI) with horses coming off wins and running back in 15 to 25 days. Mr Havercamp is drawn perfectly down on the rail and should work out a great stalking trip.

RACE 10: SEPARATIONOFPOWERS (#1)
Pure Silver is a deserving morning-line favorite off her dominant win in the Adirondack. She’s improved her speed figures in each career start and would be awfully formidable here if she were take another step forward. However, the Adirondack was run on a card that was strongly favoring horses that showed speed and raced down along the rail. (The bias is indicated by the red colored Race Rating box in the PPs.) Today, I strongly prefer Separationofpowers, who was dazzling in her debut at the beginning of the meet. She wasn’t facing much that day, but she won in dominant fashion in fast time. I don’t think she necessarily needs the lead and I doubt seven furlongs will be an issue.

RACE 12: WAR FLAG (#4)
While I’m generally not a big fan of War Front’s progeny stretching out to marathon distances, I think the added ground may really suit his daughter War Flag. There is a ton of stamina on the female side of her pedigree, since her dam is a half-sister to Dynaformer. She nearly won going 10 furlongs in France and has shown no signs of stopping in her races. She’s run well in both of her US starts at Monmouth, but she’s the kind of filly that takes a while to wind up and reach her top speed. This stretch-out should allow her to sit closer to the early pace and she gets a rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz. Over the past five years, Shug McGaughey is 14 for 61 (23%, $2.04 ROI) in turf stakes races at 10 furlongs or farther. I’ll use her with the three-year-old, Grateful, who ran well after a poor start last time, and may play out as the controlling speed this time, as well as Sarandia, who gets some class relief after flattening out at the end of the Beverly D.

Picks & Plays for Friday, September 1

by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 5 - 1 - 7
Race 2:   6 - 2 - 10 - 4
Race 3:   8 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 4:   5 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 5:   7 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 6:   6 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 7:   5 - 8 - 2 - 4
Race 8:   4 - 2 - 3 - 8
Race 9:   4 - 6 - 2 - 11
Race 10:   2 - 5 - 8 - 4
Race 11:   9 - 12 - 1 - 8

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: TALK SOFTLY (#6)
There are plenty of fillies with interesting turf pedigrees in this race. Radiant Beauty and Brattata are both out of dams that were stakes winner on the turf, Lyrical Tale is a half-sister to Thundering Sky, and Chipolina’s dam is a half-sister to talented turf horses like Sea Queen, Nereid, and Gioia Stella. They're all worth a look, but my top pick is Talk Softly, who flashed brief speed on dirt in both of her starts, but figures to move way up with this surface switch. Her dam was a confirmed turf sprinter who won 5 of 10 starts on grass, including a stakes. I liked Talk Softly’s Fasig-Tipton sales workout, in which she went a furlong in 10 2/5 seconds while displaying more of a turf action, and I think we're going to see a different filly this time.

RACE 5: GIANTINTHEMOONLITE (#7)
This is an interesting affair in which horses that are dropping in class, like Deep Sea, are meeting runners that are moving up off strong efforts, like Scarf It Down. I think race flow is going to play a major role in the outcome, since the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors horses on or near the lead. The expected front-runner is longshot Giantinthemoonlite, and I think he's very dangerous here. Charlton Baker has excellent numbers with layoff horses. Over the past five years, he is 7 for 32 (22%, $2.81 ROI) with horses coming off layoffs of greater than 180 days in NYRA dirt sprints. He actually didn't run that badly in his two starts at Aqueduct over the winter and may just be faster than these if he's sent early.

RACE 6: DESERT DUCHESS (#6)
A few horses in this field are coming out of the race at this level that was run on August 9. The runner that I really don't want this time is runner-up Madame Uno, I know that she defeated some of today's rivals in that event, but she got an absolutely perfect trip, setting a slow pace (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs) in a race that was dominated by horses that rode the rail. I thought the unluckiest horse in that race was Desert Duchess, who got a very peculiar ride. Despite the fact that she's been more of a speed type in the past, she was wrangled to the back of the pack by Joel Rosario, and just was never able to make much of a late impact as the early leaders sprinted home. All things considered, she actually did quite well to even get up for fourth. This rider switch signals to me that they're looking to have her more forwardly placed once again.

RACE 7: DR. SHANE (#5)
Of all the runners coming out of the first race July 22, the one that may have run the best race after winner Grand Sky is Dr. Shane. After all, the pace of that race was quite slow for the distance (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs), and few horses made strong rallies from the back of the pack. Despite having to swing widest of all into the lane, Dr. Shane was actually making up good ground late and did well to nearly get up for second. This horse has definitely taken a step forward on turf and the 5 1/2 furlong distance really seemed to suit him after he had flattened out going 7 furlongs in his prior start. There is plenty of early speed in this race, since New York's Finest, Saratoga Giro, Uncle Youdge, and D'funnything all prefer to be forwardly placed in the early going.

RACE 8: TOMMY T (#4)
This is a pretty competitive maiden field full of possibly well-meant first-time starters, but I think there's a clear deserving favorite in this group. Tommy T goes out for a low-profile trainer, which may give some handicappers reservations, but this horse deserves serious respect based on his debut effort. He was well bet that day, going off at 3-1 odds for connections that don't usually take that much money. Though not noted in the short comment, he was off about a length slowly in that first start, and did well to rush up into contention on the backstretch. From there, he made a good run down inside approaching the stretch before having to angle out off the heels of eventual winner Phi Beta Express in the lane. Phi Beta Express ran 6 Beyer points and 10 TimeformUS Speed Figure points faster when winning his subsequent start. Weather Wiz, the third-place finisher from Tommy T’s debut, also came back to put forth a respectable effort when stretched out to two turns.

RACE 9: ALABAMA BOUND (#4)
This race presents an interesting situation. The top contenders in this race look pretty evenly matched, so trips are likely to play an important role in the outcome. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, but I'm somewhat skeptical. While I agree that Alabama Bound is going to be the early leader, I just don't see where the other speed is coming from. She is the only confirmed front-runner in this race, and I just have trouble believing that runners like Bree's Got Heart and Frosty Lady are going to be sent that hard in an effort to press her. Alabama Bound had no excuse to lose when she was overbet in a similar spot two back, but now she's coming into this race off an effort that muddies her form. In her last start, there was a ton of speed on paper, so Javier Castellano had no choice but to rate her from her far outside post position. That's just not the sort of trip that is going to work for this mare, as she went wide around both turns and couldn't pass runners late.

RACE 10: READY FOR RYE (#2)
I find it puzzling that Ready for Rye's connections have focused so intently on running this horse in dirt races throughout this career despite the fact that some of his best efforts have come on the turf. His overall record on turf is just 2 for 5, but his three losses came at the hands of some of the most talented turf sprinters in the country. He set the pace before fading in the 2015 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. Then he made just two starts on grass in 2016, but they were both excellent. He was a close third behind Pure Sensation and Disco Partner in the Jaipur, and then he was beaten by only a couple of lengths by similar foes in the Belmont Turf Sprint in the fall. There is not that much early speed in this field, so he should work out a great trip stalking the pace along the rail.

Picks & Plays for Thursday, August 31

by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 2:   5 - 7 - 4 - 8
Race 3:   3 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 4:   3 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 5:   6 - 11 - 1 - 7
Race 6:   3 - 8 - 9 - 11
Race 7:   9 - 10 - 12 - 1
Race 8:   5 - 9 - 8 - 6
Race 9:   3 - 5 - 4 - 6
Race 10:   8 - 6 - 11 - 1

TOP PLAYS

RACE 3: MINSKY MOMENT (#3)
One of the two runners likely to take money in this race is Control Group, who I am firmly against in this spot. He earned one of the highest speed figure in the field in his last start, as he drew off to a facile victory against claiming company. A similar effort might win this race, but I doubt we'll see it. He had everything in his favor last time, since August 13 at Saratoga featured one of the most pronounced rail biases of the entire meet, and he set the pace inside throughout. Furthermore, he is now going to have to deal with the early speed of Crafty Concorde. I much prefer his chief rival Minsky Moment. This horse finished a close second to New York Derby runner-up Broken Engagement in a maiden race three back, but has not run quite as fast in his two subsequent starts. His last race looks disappointing as he lost as the 1-2 favorite, but he was racing three-wide against a very strong rail bias that day, while both the winner and third-place finisher stayed inside all the way. That performance is much better than it appears, and I think he can beat this field over a fair racetrack. I'll use him over his stablemate, Born for a Storm, who stretches out to two turns for the first time, in an effort to get likely underlay Control Group out of the mix.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2
Trifecta: 3 with 1,2 with ALL

RACE 6: ROYAL ASSET (#3)
The likely favorite is Grandy Sky, who won over this course a few weeks in dominant fashion as he made his first start off the claim by Jason Servis. He certainly has a chance to win right back in this spot, but he looks to be facing a tougher field this time. Jason Servis runners are always dangerous in turf sprints, and he's having a fantastic Saratoga meet, but I think this runner is likely to be overbet. Two of the solid alternatives are Hold Me Black and Banana Thief, who both ran well in a similar spot earlier in the month. Hold Me Black made the first move into a race that was collapsing late, while Banana Thief encountered some traffic trouble in the lane. I'll use both, but my top pick is Royal Asset. I know that this horse has never won on the turf, but he's actually run better than it might appear on that surface. He had a nightmare of a trip when he made his debut on this surface some two years ago, and then only tried grass twice more, both time as a four-year-old. In the first of those efforts, he had the misfortune of running into Disco Partner just as that one was getting good, and then on July 1, 2016 he couldn't quite keep up through quick early fractions. This time, the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be the early pacesetter in a situation that is expected to favor the front-runner. He's actually run reasonably well in his recent dirt races, and I think he can pull off the minor upset.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,8,9,11

RACE 7: GOSILENTLY (#9)
The horses to beat are the two coming out of the maiden special weight race run here on August 6. Both Appealing Briefs and Summer Mischief ran well that day would be formidable here with a repeat of those efforts. However, they are both stuck in outside post positions, which can be difficult to overcome in these one-mile races on the inner turf course. My top pick is also drawn towards the outside, but at least possesses the speed to cross over and clear the field early. The Pace Projector is predicting that Gosilently will be setting the pace in the opening stages, and I think this horse has a legitimate chance to lead them all the way. He’s only made one prior start against New York-breds on the turf, having since run in open company at Tampa Bay and Indiana Downs. While one might not think highly of the competition he’s been facing at those tracks, he is actually coming out of a very tough race. Last time out on July 18, he was part of a contested early pace and was the only horse involved in that pace to still be around at the finish. Furthermore, horse after horse has come back out of that race to improve. The first, second, fifth, and seventh place finishers all returned to win next time out. The winner improved his TimeformUS Speed Figure by 11 points in his subsequent start, the fifth-place finisher improved by 17 points, and the seventh-place finisher improved by 6 points. That may have been a much stronger race than it seems and I expect Gosilently to be competitive here even as he faces an above par group of New York-breds.

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 10,12

RACE 8: NUTZFORBOLTZ (#5)
I don't want the majority of the horses coming out of the race at this level that was run on August 6. Manifest Destiny beat many of today's rivals in that spot, but he also got a great trip, setting a slow pace going a mile on the inner turf course, a distance that favors inside speed horses. This time, he is likely to face more pressure from Mission Leader, and possibly others. The obvious trip horse out of that race is Ode to the Hunt, who was stymied in traffic for much of the stretch drive and may have won had he ever gotten a clear path. That said, he was able to save ground around both turns, which enhanced his late kick. That was not the case for Nutzforboltz. Even though he ended up finishing last in that race, I think he ran a deceptively strong race. He hopped at the start and spotted the field multiple lengths, placing him at the back of the pack early. From there, he was never inside, and even launched a four-wide bid around the far turn before flattening out late. This horse is certainly capable of being more forwardly placed in his races, and should have gotten needed fitness out of that last effort. If he can get back to his prior start, in which he was second to Black tide, I think he has a real shot to win at a price.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,6,8,9
Trifecta: 5,9 with 5,9 with 2,6,8

Picks & Plays for Wednesday, August 30

by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   9 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 2:   8 - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 3:   5 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 4:   2 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 5:   8 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 6:   1 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 7:   6 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 8:   2 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 9:   1 - 9 - 3 - 6
Race 10:   9 - 6 - 5 - 3

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: TASIT (#8)
Call Provision is the most likely winner of this race, but I have a feeling that he’s going to be overbet. His last race represented a return to form after a slightly disappointing start to his four-year-old campaign back in June. The July 29 race that he exits did fall apart in the late stages, but he did well to rally for second while splitting horses in the stretch. A similar effort may win this race, but I don’t feel that he ran that much better than today’s rival Tasit in that event. Tasit was somewhat rank while racing towards the back of the pack that day, and also put in a good run when angled out in the stretch to run up into third. That may have seemed like a rare good effort for a horse that’s been off form, but Tasit actually ran better than it appears in his prior start at Belmont when he made a premature move to the front and flattened out late. He’s a horse that has gotten very worked up in his races, so I’m intrigued that he’s now returning as a new gelding. That could make a big difference for this horse, and it’s not as if there’s that large of a gap between him and Call Provision.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,4,7
Trifecta: 4,8 with 4,8 with 1,2,5,7

RACE 4: FOREIGN AFFAIR (#2)
Transaction Tax is likely to take money in this spot just because she's being sent out by Chad Brown, who is looking to tally up wins in the last few days of this meet. While she does have some turf pedigree in the second generation of her dam's family, this isn't actually a very good move for Chad Brown. He has fairly poor numbers - by his standards - with horses trying turf for the first time in maiden claiming company. Perhaps she's too fast for these and wires the field, but I'm trying to beat her. My top selection is Foreign Affair. This filly has run better than it appears in both of her turf starts. She did well to close into a slow pace in her sprint debut here last summer. Then in her return to the races this spring, she was unprepared for the start and spotted the field many lengths out of the gate. I like that she broke much better in her dirt race last time and showed improved speed that day. Two turns is a question, but I think she may just be the best turf horse in this field.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5,6

RACE 5: MONAVISTA CROSSING (#8)
Of the runners exiting the race at this level on August 3, Avery Maeve is the one that I want the most. She made the first move into a race that fell apart late, and did well to hang on for second. She has a right to improve on that finish here, but she's not going to be much of a price and there are some intriguing new faces to consider. One of those is Taquinia, who switches surfaces after a dominant maiden score on dirt last time. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will be contesting the lead in the early going, but that projection is based on the speed she showed in her last dirt race. I'm a little skeptical that she'll be quite as aggressive getting back on the turf. For that reason, I've made Monavista Crossing my top pick. I know that she has a layoff to contend with, and that this barn isn't necessarily known for winning off lengthy breaks. However, this filly is very fast, and actually ran extremely well in some difficult spots late last year. A few of the horses that she was facing (and beating) at Laurel would be awfully tough in this spot. If she can get over to the rail and ride that hedge while setting moderate fractions, I think she'll be hard to pass late. This barn came to Saratoga a few years ago with Dance to Bristol and won a stakes, so they can clearly win on this circuit.

Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,5,9

RACE 7: DURABLE GOODS (#6)
The horse to beat is Palinodie based on her deceptively strong effort in the Grade 3 Long Island Handicap at the end of last year. The pace of that race was extremely slow, and it basically turned into a sprint to the finish. Evidently, the winner, did close from off the pace, but she got a perfect run-through on the rail, which is where you wanted to be on the Aqueduct course that day. Palinodie had to swing wide and make a run down the center of the course. All things considered, she did well to get as close as she did at the end. Now she comes back off a lengthy layoff, but Christophe Clement has pretty poor numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is just 15 for 106 (14 percent, $1.35 ROI) with non-foreign shippers coming off layoffs of greater than 180 days in turf routes. I think she'll be vulnerable today, and am trying to beat her with Durable Goods. This filly is likely to be the shorter price of the two Chad Brown runners, and I think she should be. She's shown a great deal of talent in her first couple of starts, and I believe there could be stakes in this one's future. I like that she placed herself a bit closer to the pace last time, so she may get the first run on her rivals.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 6 with 3 with ALL

RACE 9: MORRISON (#1) / EVALUATOR (#9)
There are a few horses in this race that I don't want to bet. One of those is Machtree, who got a perfect trip stalking a slow pace in his maiden score, and faces a totally different scenario this time. I also don't want any of the horses coming out of the race won by Trumpi. The winner got a perfect trip setting a moderate pace along the rail, and his main rival Seabhac is stuck in the far outside post position here. So who's left? My top pick is Morrison, who makes his turf debut. This horse is by good turf sire The Factor and is out of a dam that produced a stakes-placed turf runner. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, but I'm a little skeptical. Irad Ortiz should send him from the rail to secure the coveted ground down on the rail, and I think he can lead these all the way. The other runner I want to use is Evaluator. I know his debut came against New York-breds, but he ran a fast race despite missing the break, and the third-place finisher returned to validate the effort with a win next time out. If the pace does heat up, I think he's the most talented of the late runners.

Win/Place: 1,9
Exacta Key Box: 1,9 with 1,3,6,7,8,9,10,11
Trifecta: 1,3,9 with 1,3,9 with 1,3,6,7,8,9,10,11

Picks & Plays for Monday, August 28

by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 2:   2 - 8 - 5 - 3
Race 3:   6 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 4:   3 - 4 - 8 - 6
Race 5:   2 - 3 - 4 - 10
Race 6:   10 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 7:   3 - 8 - 7 - 2
Race 8:   1 - 2 - 7 - 3
Race 9:   8 - 9 - 2 - 10

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: SPEIGHTFULL KITTEN (#2)
Discretionary Marq is likely to take all the money in this spot as he makes his second start after just missing in his debut at Belmont Park. He is, of course, a full brother to Grade 1 winner Discreet Marq, and figures to have a nice future for Christophe Clement. That said, I’m not sure that he ran quite as well as some may think in his debut, since he got a very fast pace to close into, and I believe he’s going to be an underlay. I’m trying to beat him with Speightful Kitten. This horse ran very well for Linda Rice in his first start back from a lengthy layoff last time, which was also his first start as a new gelding. The pace of that race was very fast (color-coded red in the PPs) and this runner just got tired in the late stages. I like this turnback 5 1/2 furlongs and I think he will take a step forward here.

Win: 2
Exacta Box: 2,5

RACE 2: ISOTOPE (#2)
Easy Way Out and North Eight Street are the two likely to take the most money here. The former has been a disappointment recently for Rudy Rodriguez after showing promise when she began her career. Easy Way Out showed nothing as the favorite last time, and now drops down the class ladder again. She’s not the kind of favorite I want to bet. I have similar feelings about North Eight Street, who did run a decent second on the class drop last time. However, I think she faces a better rival today in Isotope. I just have to get horses that were against the track on August 13, day that featured one of the strongest rail biases of this Saratoga meet. Not only was the rail the place to be, but the pace of that race was quite slow (indicated by blue color-coding), and she really never had a chance to close after a three-wide trip. That race’s runner-up, Friend of Liberty, who also got a three-wide trip, returned to run 9 Beyer points faster in her subsequent start. The pace isn’t predicted to be much faster here, but I think she can sit a bit closer early.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,8

RACE 4: BIXBY LOU (#3)
A few horses in this race have shown some decent turf form, but the one that interests me most is one that’s trying this surface for the first time. For whatever reason, Bixby Lou’s prior connections gave up on her before giving her a race on the grass, despite the fact that she has a turf pedigree. She is a half-sister to Laquesta, a two-time turf winner, and is sired by solid turf influence Harlan’s Holiday. Linda Rice does especially well in these situations. Over the past five years, she is 5 for 19 (26 percent, $3.12 ROI) first off the claim with maidens on the turf. This horse has speed, which is typically an advantage in one-mile races on the inner course.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,6,8

RACE 8: BLIND AMBITION (#1)
He may not be much of a price in this spot, but I just think Blind Ambition is a very likely winner of this race. I’m typically not a fan of horses stretching out in distance from sprints to routes on the turf. That said, I think 5 1/2 furlongs may have been too short for this horse, as he needed the length of the stretch to get up last time. His prior turf effort, which came around two turns at Gulfstream, was powerful. He’s always been bred to be a star on the grass, and his connections are just now finally focusing on the correct surface with him. Speed is so dangerous going a mile on this inner turf course, and I think he’ll find himself with a clear early lead against this group. Snap Decision is his main competition, but it’s hard for me to see him closing down my top selection given the likelihood of a slow pace.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 2,7
Trifecta: 1 with 2,7 with ALL

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Picks & Plays for Monday, August 28

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