TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs. Have a question about a specific feature in TimeformUS? Ask DRF ai.

PLAYS

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.

RACE 1
#3 NORWICH, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 5
#7 INVESTMENT MANDATE, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 6
#5 HEADSPIN, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 7
#5 IT'S OUR TIME, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 8
#5 ROCK THE WEEKEND, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 11
#7 LANDMAN FRIDAY, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 12
#2 NOT FOR HIRE, at 5-2 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs. Have a question about a specific feature in TimeformUS? Ask DRF ai.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

I don't want to get too heavily involved in this opener for the 2-year-olds, since there's plenty of guesswork to be done. Both of the likely favorites seem solid enough. Caroline St. Beat (#1A) has been working well for his debut, looking superior to her company in most of his drills. He has plenty of turf pedigree, out of a multiple turf stakes winner. Miguel Clement's stats with firsters may not be overly positive yet, but he can certainly win with a newcomer. Honoree (#7) is the short price I slightly prefer, since he has some experience under his belt. He didn't do much running in that off the turf debut, but it should have given him some fitness. He's bred for turf, as a 3/4-brother to turf stakes winner Vergara as well as a half-brother to 5 other turf winners in the family. The horse I want to bet is Jack's World (#5) going out for Linda Rice. She isn't known for success with these types of runners, going 1 for 20 with first time starters in turf routes over 5 years. Yet 7 of those have hit the board, and I think this colt should be well suited to this spot. Rock Your World has the profile of a sire whose progeny should excel on turf, and there is more grass pedigree digging through the female family, with the third dam being a Grade 1 winner on turf. This colt looked turf-inclined in his 10 2/5 OBS workout, and even more so in his recent drills over the dirt. He seems like he's been gaining fitness through recent workouts, and I think he can outrun his odds.

Fair Value:
#5 JACK'S WORLD, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 4

This New York-bred allowance/optional claimer has attracted a competitive group. The TimeformUS Pace Projector shows Bustin Bullet (#2) and Bellacose (#4) vying for the early lead. Wesley Ward-trained Bellacose might be naturally faster, but she has to prove that she can transfer her early speed to the turf in her first attempt over this surface. She doesn’t have that much pedigree for it, and her turf workouts don’t inspire a ton of confidence. Bustin Bullet is the forwardly placed contender that I prefer. She relinquished good early position last time, sitting in the pocket before getting shuffled back in upper stretch. She’s been better when she can get to the front, and she may have that opportunity here. My top pick is Firsttimeinfover (#8), who turns back to a sprint distance for the first time in more than two years. This mare ran some speed figures in the early half of 2024 that would make her tough for this field to handle. It might look like she tailed off a bit when she came to New York, but she got some less-than-ideal trips, particularly when stymied in traffic on May 25 and making a wide, early move on June 23 of last year. She launched a comeback this spring and ran like a horse who needed a race off the layoff before returning to the winner’s circle last time. She’s stepping up against a tougher field here and trying to succeed going shorter. That move might seem curious at first glance, but she’s a lot better now than she was when she last sprinted. She’s out of a sprinting dam and possesses the quicker action of a horse who should adapt well to this distance. She’s also switching into the barn of Joseph Lee, who does a good job with limited starters.

Fair Value:
#8 FIRSTTIMEINFOREVER, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 5

This race loses some appeal after the scratch of Vintage Vino, who I was against. I preferred the upside of The Nominees Are (#7), but he may now inherit the favorite's role. He ran pretty well when he made his debut at Tampa back in March. He veered in at the start, pulled early, and launched a wide far turn move to just miss. The knock on that race is that it hasn't been very productive, looking like one of the weaker Tampa maiden races at that time of year. He is realistically spotted for his first start in New York. I just think a couple of others are more interesting. One of those is Policy Change (#9), who has only tried turf once, when he made his debut last summer. That was a much better effort than the result indicates, since he was chasing a fast pace that fell apart, and was blocked in upper stretch when attempting to challenge the leaders. He actually ran a decent race when he returned on dirt last time, but now he's getting back on his preferred surface. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz may hurt the price, but I do think he is liable to improve. My top pick is first time starter Swamp Fox (#8), who kicks off his career for trainer Phil Antonacci. This barn isn't known for debut success, but they have won with a couple such runners, and Antonacci is generally very good at preparing horses to run well off workouts. There isn't much pedigree to get excited about with this colt, but he has shown ability in his workouts. He always looks like he has more to give in the mornings, and appears to have an air of professionalism about him, which should translate to a solid showing in the afternoon.

Fair Value:
#8 SWAMP FOX, at 4-1 or greater
#9 POLICY CHANGE, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 7

I generally wanted to look beyond the fillies exiting that starter allowance race at this level from July 20. Golden Irish (#4) achieved the best result that day, but she was riding the advantageous inside path and might have appreciated the sloppy going. I just think there are two other contenders from different directions who are more appealing. One of those is Hey Cookie (#7), who exits a career-best performance at Monmouth. She beat a much weaker $30k conditioned claiming field in that recent start, but did well to overcome a poor start, running away at the end. She has apparently been privately purchased since that race, and now goes out for new trainer Chad Summers. Her last workout was pretty impressive, as she held her won in company with graded stakes winner Alexander Helios. That would suggest she's held her form or is even ready to step forward in the new stable. My top pick is the filly just to her outside. Circuit Court (#8) just broke her maiden against $35k claimers, but won quite decisively, drawing off with authority at the end. She had looked like a progressive sort in her first two starts, getting a wide trip on debut before getting ridden into traffic and coming on again in her second start. This race is tougher, but she seems like the type that is just putting it all together. She drew well outside of other speed, and should be tough right back with a similar performance. She also may not get the respect she deserves once again going out for a low-profile barn.

Fair Value:
#8 CIRCUIT COURT, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 8

I want to take a shot against likely favorite Will Not Be Swayed (#5) as she stretches out in distance and drops down to the $35k claiming level. This filly showed ability up here last summer, and even ran better than it looks in the Matron when she tried stakes company late last year. However, I have been pretty disappointed with her form since returning as a 3-year-old. She's lost whatever early speed she once possessed, and just gives herself way too much to do late in her races. That's probably why Brad Cox is now stretching her out in distance, but she doesn't strike me as one that will get better with more ground. She's got a quick action to her, and she's on the smaller side, attributes of a sprinting type. Those with proven form at this level like Starlight Dancer (#7) and Silent Melody (#9) are the obvious alternatives. The former did well to get up for second after making a wide run last time out. The latter might have run the better race overall, since she pressured that pace that came apart. I do think Silent Melody benefits a bit more from the slight cutback to a mile, but she is drawn wide once again. My top pick is a new face on this surface. Rock Harbor (#3) obviously needs to improve on turf if she's to beat this field, but I see some signs that she will. Notably, Ken McPeek tried to get this filly on turf twice while he had her over the winter at Fair Grounds and was rained off both times. When you watch her run, you can see why. She's got a long, fluid stride to her, with an action that suggests she should take to turf. There isn't an abundance of turf pedigree, but her dam did win on the surface, and her second dam achieved both career victories on turf. I don't think this is the toughest spot for the level, and this filly may finally be getting on the right surface.

Fair Value:
#3 ROCK HARBOR, at 10-1 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs. Have a question about a specific feature in TimeformUS? Ask DRF ai.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

Todd Pletcher sends out a pair of contenders in this 9-furlong maiden special weight. The more appealing of the two appears to be Danzit (#3), who has plenty of pedigree to get this distance. She's the half-sister to Grade 1-winning dirt router Tapit Trice. Given her breeding, she actually did well to show speed sprinting on debut. She was off for a very long time after that, but she seemed to improve when she stretched out to a mile off the layoff last time, and today's added distance should only bring out more of that potential. Saffie Joseph is the other trainer with two horses in here. Absolute Honor (#6) hadn't shown much in her first couple of starts, but she did seem to wake up when stretched out to this distance last time. That was a much tougher field for the level, and it's possible she's just finally figuring things out. I have some questions about the quality of Saffie Joseph's other entrant, Bon Vivant (#2), as that one ships up from Florida. However, she is bred to stretch out as a half-sister to Grade 1-placed dirt router Simplification. My top pick is Stone Cold Kelly (#1). I don't care about the turf race last time since Laoban isn't much of a turf sire and this filly clearly didn't handle the surface. Her prior dirt form is somewhat inconsistent, but she ran well behind Danzit in the slop on June 15 despite racing out of position and taking kickback. She also put in a couple of decent efforts at a mile last winter. She has always struck me as a horse who would benefit from more distance, and she finally gets to go two turns. She's produced from a strong Phipps family, tracing back to My Flag and Personal Ensign. Jose Lezcano would be wise to go forward from this advantageous inside post.

Fair Value:
#1 STONE COLD KELLY, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 3

Both favorites in this maiden turf sprint have their flaws. Cuando (#6) brings the best turf sprint form into this race, but it's hard to take an 0 for 15 maiden. In fairness, he's had fewer chances on turf, and he has run a bit better since focusing on turf sprints in his last couple of starts. The form of his race two back was flattered when Spiced Up returned to win the Mahony last weekend. I still didn't want to take him on top. Main rival Our Starry Night (#4) is pretty appealing off his lone turf sprint try on debut at Churchill Downs. He showed excellent speed that day before settling for second. However, he did get reeled in going 5 furlongs, and now he has to go half a furlong farther. His lone route attempt doesn't suggest he has much stamina, but perhaps helped with his fitness. The main drawback is that you have to take a short price on a jockey who rarely wins here. My top pick is Leading Role (#5), who switches back to turf for dangerous trainer William Morey. You always want to give this barn's runners an extra look on turf at NYRA, since Morey is 13 for 52 (25%, $3.13 ROI) in grass races on this circuit over the last 5 years. This gelding didn't perform well in his only turf start, but he had little chance after getting away slowly in a race that featured a glacial pace for the distance. He's since improved on dirt against weaker, but I like him switching back to turf. While his best sibling is full-sister Red Carpet Ready, a graded stakes-winning dirt sprinter, it's really more of a turf pedigree, as two other siblings were best on grass.

Fair Value:
#5 LEADING ROLE, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 5

I suppose the horses exiting that July 25 race at this level won by Who's the King make some sense in this spot. I just thought Gotta Guy (#6) was merely picking up pieces late going a distance that suited him. True Connection (#2) might have run a little better despite losing to that foe, since he at least applied some pressure to the winner before fading. Turning back to a mile should suit him a little better. I'm just more interested in some newer faces at this level. Still a Soldier (#1) has to be considered a major threat as he drops down to this level for the first time. I had thought he was mildly interesting getting on turf last time, but he clearly didn't handle that surface, and was always out of position after a poor break. While his best effort came at Finger Lakes, he really hasn't had much of a chance in his surrounding dirt races against vastly superior competition. He's still earned speed figures that make him competitive here, and he's reportedly been working well. He just has to break cleanly from the rail, which is sometimes an issue for him. My top pick is Dark Magic (#4), who makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice. This colt obviously has to improve to beat this field, but the same Linda Rice stat that I referenced for Tactical Trackstar in Race 4 also applies to this horse. Furthermore, I think he was more dominant than the margin of victory suggests last time, since he had to wait in behind the leaders for a long time before finding room in the lane. It's interesting that Junior Alvarado keeps the mount for Rice, which might be a good sign for a horse with upside. She's placed him appropriately for his first start against winners.

Fair Value:
#4 DARK MAGIC, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 8

The likely short prices don't do much for me in this maiden claimer. Linda Rice scratched the more logical Freedom Maker and will only go with Nantz (#1), who makes a significant class drop out of a pair of $100k maiden claimers. This horse has been a litlte wide in his last two starts, but he still didn't do much running in those spots and is now dropping down to a more realistic level. His lack of early speed bothers me, but I suppose he's a contender. Preposition (#10) exits a 9-furlong race which featured some key Todd Pletcher dropdowns. This is a much softer spot for the son of Tapit. While his immediate pedigree says that longer should be better, his dam is a half-sister to Grade 1-winning sprinter Yaupon. He did run well sprinting early in his career, and draws well outside for this 7-furlong distance. Tomorrow's Wish (#8) ran some decent races on dirt early in his career before going to the sidelines. He hasn't done any running on turf since returning this summer, but this will be his first time dropping in for a tag on the dirt. I just want to go in a different direction with a wild card. Nice Try Riley (#5) obviously comes in with much to prove, having made little impact in two prior starts down in Florida. He got a very wide trip on debut, and then last time was curiously taken in hand right from the start and never given a chance. Yet both of those came on different surfaces, and he's bred to be a dirt horse. Speightster is a strong 18% dirt sprint sire, and this gelding's female family is also dirt-oriented. He's returning from a layoff for Lisa Bartkowski, who won with a horse that had a similar profile a few weeks ago.

Fair Value:
#5 NICE TRY RILEY, at 7-1 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs. Have a question about a specific feature in TimeformUS? Ask DRF ai.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 3

Among the first time starters in this state-bred maiden turf route, She's Country (#4) is the one likely to attract the most support. She's reportedly been working well for the debut, and George Weaver can win with this type of runner, though he's better with firsters in turf sprints. The breeding for turf could be stronger, but it is a good sign that she attracts Irad Ortiz. I'm a little more interested in Princess Celine (#6), who debuts for Brad Cox. This barn doesn't have as much of a reputation for success in these types of races, but Cox is 4 for 7 (57%, $10.20 ROI) with 2-year-old first time starters in Saratoga turf routes over 5 years. This filly has more of a dirt pedigree on the dam's side, but Volatile has had some success as a turf sire. There are also a couple of runners with experience that I want to consider. One of those is Rizz (#7), who ships in for the dangerous Adam Rice barn. Rice has been of the sharpest trainers shipping into this circuit over the last decade. He's 7 for 11 ($12.83 ROI) with his Saratoga turf starters over the course of his training career, a remarkable win rate considering the prices and the difficulty of this meet. I can't say that I love this horse's form, but you have to respect the connections. My top pick is Rocket Robin (#9), who ran like a filly who badly needed a race sprinting on debut. She ran into a pretty tough field for the level, from which the runner-up has already returned to win. Rocket Robin was outrun at the start, striding awkwardly down the backstretch before settling in on the turn. She failed to make up ground late, but it was an educational debut. She looks like a horse who should be better suited to going longer, and she did show some promise in her morning preparation for that first start. I expect her to display improved early speed this time.

Fair Value:
#9 ROCKET ROBIN, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 4

I'm not really against likely favorite Gun Party (#5), but he does figure to be a pretty short price as he attempts to win his second start in a row. This $1.7 million purchase went 1 for 9 to start his career, but he did steadily improve once stepped up against winners. He caught a tough rival in El Magnifico two back, and last time seemed to put it all together. He was more engaged in the early stages, stalking a moderate pace before taking over. He now has to cut back to a mile, which probably doesn't do him any favors. Yet this isn't the toughest field for the level, and he has to be considered the most reliable option. Main rival Drake's Passage (#1) is pretty hard to trust given his spotty form going back to last summer. He showed some signs of life in the Commentator two back, but then was no match for a talented duo from the Chad Brown barn at this level last time. I don't like that he's broken slowly at the start of each of those recent races, and doing so from the rail out of the Wilson Chute could put him in a difficult early position. My top pick is Stowaway (#6), who returns from a lengthy layoff for trainer Whit Beckman. This barn can be successful off extended layoffs, compiling a record of 16:3-3-2 (19%, $5.09 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more. This gelding has been away from the races for 443 days, since his victory in May 2024. That's a lot to overcome, but he has come back from layoffs in the past, even winning off a break in that last start. That 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him highly competitive here. He got back to dirt for the first time in three years on that occasion, and he made it clear that he prefers this surface. He's now a 6-year-old, but his dam is notorious for producing late-developing horses. It's a good sign that he's returning without a drop in class after all this time away, especially considering that he was purchased for just $40k by these connections. He appears to be training well for the return, and it's a very good sign that Irad Ortiz takes the mount.

Fair Value:
#6 STOWAWAY, at 7-2 or greater