TimeformUS Race Analysis

Picks & Plays for Sunday, August 18

by David Aragona

Get the wagering strategy for this card in this year’s TimeformUS Saratoga Betting Strategies package, which includes PPs for each day of the meet, exclusive access to the daily Highlight Horse, multi-race ticket constructions, and additional analysis of every stakes race at the meet. More info ›

PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 5 - 1 - 8
Race 2:   5 - 6 - 3 - 7
Race 3:   1 - 7 - 4 - 5
Race 4:   4 - 6 - 8 - 3
Race 5:   7 - 4 - 8 - 3
Race 6:   6 - 4 - 1 - 8
Race 7:   9 - 4 - 7 - 5
Race 8:   10 - 1 - 6 - 11
Race 9:   7 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 10:   1 - 5 - 11 - 2

PLAYS

RACE 1: SOMEKINDOFMAGICIAN (#6)
I suppose Blessed Halo may go favored here as he makes his first start off the claim for Brad Cox. However, I highly doubt the plan was to give him 8 months on the sidelines when the claim slip was submitted last December. He’s clearly good enough to beat this field based on his best form, but it’s doubtful that we’re going to see it given his overall inconsistency and the time away. For what it’s worth, Brad Cox is 0 for 6 with horses first off the claim returning from layoffs between 150 and 300 days. Shiraz is another that merits some consideration, but he’s plagued by similar consistency issues. He would be quite dangerous if he was able to repeat his last effort, since the turnback to 5 1/2 furlongs may suit him given how much speed he showed last time. I just doubt that we’re going to see him put top races back-to-back, and I’m also concerned that he tends to settle for minor awards. I want to go in a different direction, so I’m taking a shot with Somekindofmagician. This gelding has been running longer distances in his recent starts, but I think he’s actually best as a sprinter. He put forth some superior efforts in turf sprints back in 2017, but has had trouble getting back to that form since. Yet I believe his last two efforts at this meet signal that he’s starting to round back into form. He only lost to dominant next-out winner Bemma’s Boy by 1 length in July, and then he did well to nearly get up for second last time after weaving his way through traffic. I like the turnback and he figures to get an honest pace to close into.

RACE 3: AMERICANO GIRL (#1)
Sharing may go off as the favorite in this maiden special weight following an encouraging debut. Going 5 1/2 furlongs, the daughter of Speightstown closed stoutly to just miss after saving ground on the turn. The race did fall apart a bit in the final sixteenth, but she nevertheless showed real promise in that unveiling. Added distance should be no problem since she’s a daughter of 11-furlong BC Filly & Mare Turf winner Shared Account. The one concern is that Graham Motion is just 3 for 41 (7%, $0.69 ROI) with 2-year-old maidens going from sprints to routes on turf over the past 5 years. The only other horse with positive racing experience is Good Shabbos, who is an interesting surface switch prospect. She was facing solid fields in her first two starts and she ran well on each occasion. Sire Munnings wins with 10% of his first time turfers and the dam was a stakes-winning 4-time turf winner who was best on that surface. Her half-brother Aveenu Malcainu also won on turf, but may be best on dir. I’d use her, but I’m a little concerned about the stretch-out in distance. I’ve landed on the Chad Brown firster Americano Girl. This filly sold for a whopping $700,000 at the Keeneland September sale. Medaglia d'Oro wins with 14% of 2-year-old firsters and 11% of his first time turfers. Dam Aubby K was a Grade 1-winning dirt sprinter who never tried turf, and her best foal was a dirt horse. However, this filly has worked in company with some stablemates who can run a little and seems to be doing well ahead of her debut. I won’t be surprised if this one has real ability.

RACE 5: SPEED TALKS (#7)
It’s hard to have any confidence in the favorites in this maiden claiming race. Quantum Computing may go off at a short price for Chad Brown, but we haven’t seen too many of the juveniles shipping in from Monmouth for this stable do well at this meet. I prefer runners with experience. Wedontbelieveher ran well in her debut, but did so against a cheaper field. She was ready to go that day, getting bet down to be the 8-5 favorite, so I’m not sure how much the new connections can improve her. I would instead take a different horse out of that July 25 affair. Speed Talks ran like a horse who needed a race first time out, as she was off slowly and then rushed up through traffic before going wide around the turn. She ducked in briefly in upper stretch and then was just eased to the wire by Kendrick Carmouche. This seems like a filly with some size to her, so she may benefit from experience. Contessa adds blinkers second time out and she had a nice workout in the interim. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a much better effort in her second start, and she’ll be a big price.

RACE 7: MACHO BLUE (#9)
New York’s Finest may go off as the favorite as he seeks his 5th win at Saratoga in just 7 career starts over these turf courses. He’s coming off a loss against slightly tougher company, but I thought he ran fine in that race after having to come from farther off the pace than he prefers. Now he drops again and I think Linda Rice is just being realistic with a 5-year-old who has seen better days. This horse also figures to appreciate getting back on a firm turf course after not handling yielding going in his last start. He might be the most likely winner, but others figure to offer better value. Fear comes out of the same race and faded late, but unlike New York’s Finest, he has handled rain-softened ground in the past. I’m using both of these horses, but I think this race is open to some other contenders at better prices. My top pick is Macho Blue, who makes his second start at the Spa while dropping down to a more realistic class level. There is not much speed in this race and the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead. Of all the runners predicted to be close to the pace, only Macho Blue is a confirmed front-runner, and I would imagine that new rider Irad Ortiz will get aggressive with him. For whatever reason, he was ridden very tentatively last time as Junior Alvarado appeared to ease him up without ever asking him for run prior to the quarter pole. It’s a good sign that he’s coming back on short rest and I think he’ll give a much better account of himself this time.

RACE 8: HIT A PROVISIONAL (#10)
Connectivity will be difficult to beat if she repeats her last effort. Linda Rice is trying to strike while the iron is hot, running this filly back just 11 days after claiming her from Todd Pletcher. While she is the horse to beat, she was winning that last race against a much weaker group, and she’s stepping up to face superior rivals in this protected spot. Linda Rice does well off the claim with turf routers. Yet I’m a little skeptical about this filly putting forth another big effort given her inconsistent form prior to that last performance. Joy of Treasure also makes sense, but her running style tends to make things difficult for her. She’s a one-run closing plodder who really needs the pace to collapse in front of her to have her best chance. She’s run well in some recent starts over a variety of distances, though I wonder if his one-mile trip may be a little short for her. I’m using both of these, but I want to go in a different direction. My top pick is Hit a Provisional. This New York-bred returned from a lengthy layoff last time to finish a game second going a demanding 9 furlongs. She arguably ran the best race that day, as she dueled a rival into defeat through honest early fractions, opened up a lead in midstretch, and then gamely battled back when challenged late. I don’t think she’ll have any problem transferring that form to a mile, and her tactical speed should ensure that she works out another good trip. As long as she repeats that performance second off the layoff, I think she has a big chance to take down these open company rivals.

Picks & Plays for Saturday, August 17

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 1 - 8 - 9
Race 2:   1 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 3:   6 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 4:   4 - 3 - 5 - 7
Race 5:   6 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 6:   8 - 1 - 3 - 11
Race 7:   4 - 9 - 6 - 5
Race 8:   5 - 7 - 1 - 8
Race 9:   4 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 10:   5 - 1 - 7 - 8
Race 11:   6 - 5 - 2 - 3

PLAYS

RACE 1: LEADING WEST (#5)
With this race coming off the turf, we’re likely to lose a few well-meant firsters who were intended for grass. However, among those with experience, there are a few options that are worth upgrading now that this race has been transferred to the main track. Of the first time starters left in this field, the ones worth considering are the two Main Track Only entrants, Market Impact and Fort McHenry. Of the two, I prefer Market Impact. This colt hasn’t shown a ton of speed in the mornings, but he’s always been staying on well at the end of his drills, hinting at possessing the stamina necessary to handle this 7 furlong distance. That makes sense given his pedigree, since he’s a half-brother to Travers winner West Coast. Fort McHenry is also bred to go longer distances as a Tapit-sired half-brother to California Chrome. He’s also been working along steadily, though he was no match for his highly-touted stablemate Candy Tycoon when the duo drilled in company on Aug. 3. I’m interested in some of those who have run. I had picked Yankee Empire on turf, and while he does have the dirt form to be considered a contender in this field, I really thought he was likely to do better with the surface switch. I did not like the way he finished off his 6-furlong race last time, and I’m skeptical about him having the stamina to go an extra furlong on the main track. I instead prefer horses out of that 4th race on July 27. That was Jim Dandy day and the rail was totally dead that weekend. Few horses who raced down inside for a significant amount of time had anything left at the finish. Therefore, I think it’s worth upgrading the performances of both Leading West and Acre, who were each down inside at different portions of their trips. In my opinion, Leading West ran the better race since he was inside all the way around the turn and was still running on strongly in the lane while just one path off the rail. He also galloped out much better than Acre, giving some hope that added distance won’t be a problem. Leading West doesn’t have much turf pedigree, so staying in this off-the-turf event makes a lot of sense.

RACE 3: GAME BOY BENNY (#6)
This race totally changes with it being transferred to the dirt, though I still like the same horse. The only difference now is that Game Boy Benny is likely to be a much shorter price. This horse had some pedigree to make the surface switch, but he’s obviously fine racing over the dirt. This horse earned some eye-catching triple-digit TimeformUS Speed Figures in his last two starts, primarily due to the fast paces of those races. He seems like a horse that possesses the quickness to win going 5 1/2 furlongs, since she’s displayed an abundance of early speed in his last few starts. Mike Dini has proven that he can win with a price at this meet and I just think this horse makes the most sense with this event moving to dirt. It's a little curious that they've left likely favorite All About It in this dirt race, and I think it's probably a bad sign. This is a horse who once had the talent to win a maiden special weight on turf at this level, so it's concering that they're risking him for a tag while running over a surface that he probably doesn't prefer. Storm Tower has the pedigree to handle the dirt being out of a half-sister to Afleet Alex. Yet he is not exactly the most convincing option going this distance. I also wouldn’t totally discount High Rider, whose lone dirt sprint effort actually puts him in the mix, and he might be the best price of all of these.

RACE 5: NAKAMURA (#6)
Devamani is probably going to be a short price in this race based on his series of superior speed figures. I’ve never been this horse’s greatest fan, though I do acknowledge that his recent form is superior to this group. He faced a tougher field a the N3X allowance level last time and now his connections are getting realistic as they drop him in for a $62,500 tag. That said, I’m not convinced that he’s actually best going this far and he’s never been a horse who has displayed a strong will to win races, especially when they turn into tests of stamina. There are some others to consider at better prices. Cape Angel has steadily been improving again for Joe Sharp and he clearly runs his best races at Saratoga. I thought he got a pretty good trip last time, closing in a race that fell apart, but I think he has a chance to run another good one. Stella d’Oro is an intriguing wild card as he makes his second start in this country. He won on turf going a mile and a half in Ireland, so added distance should be no problem. He didn’t run fast enough to compete against these when he made his stateside debut at Arlington, but that was over synthetic. His connections have shown some confidence by nominating him to the Grade 1 Sword Dancer, so there’s a reasonably expectation that he will improve here. I’m using all of these, but my top pick is Nakamura. This Graham Motion trainee has been facing weaker competition in his two victories thus far in 2019, but he’s won each of those races with much greater ease than the final margins would indicate. Furthermore, those were over shorter distances, and now he’s stretching out to 1 3/8 miles. He showed an affinity for longer distances as a 3-year-old while taking on some tougher competition than he meets here. Motion hasn’t been shipping runners like this to NYRA in recent months unless they’re doing well and he’s also getting a positive rider switch to Jose Ortiz. I expect him to show improvement and outrun his odds.

RACE 7: CANDY TYCOON (#4)
In most situations, a horse like Irish Mias would be the clear favorite to break his maiden off such a strong debut performance. He closed well to be second behind the highly-regarded Another Miracle after a troubled start while earning an impressive 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He’s also bred to stretch out in distance, being out of a half-sister to Wood Memorial winner Irish War Cry. I expect him to run well in his second start, but there are some firsters in this field who seem like they’re ready to put forth efforts that could make things difficult for Irish Mias. The most notable of those is Todd Pletcher’s firster Candy Tycoon. This horse looked like a real athlete working a quarter in 21 1/5 seconds at the OBS April sale and he’s bred to have ability, being by a good debut sire from a classy female family. Since he’s come into Pletcher’s barn, he’s done some nice things in the mornings, especially during the past few weeks. He easily outworked the well-regarded Fort McHenry in a gate drill on Aug. 3 and then he embarrassed a workmate last week while getting 5 furlongs in a very impressive 59 2/5 seconds. That last workout was arguably the most impressive gate drill we’ve seen from a 2-year-old at this meet. The Todd Pletcher barn had struggled with its juveniles for a couple of seasons, but it seems like things might be starting to turn around after a few 2-year-old wins in recent weeks. I expect this horse to be very difficult to beat. The other firster that I want to use is Feisty Bird. This colt has a stellar pedigree, being by Curlin out of a half-sister to Birdstone and Bird Town. He seems like one that may need a race, as many Ian Wilkes firsters do, but he’s shown some talent in the morning. He figures to be slowly away from the gate based on his July 27 gate drill, but look for him to come running late.

RACE 8: MORTICIA (#5)
Morticia was terribly unlucky to lose the Caress as the even-money favorite, and I’m not really trying to beat her in this Smart N Fancy. Previous rider Gaffalione didn’t make use of her early speed last time and found himself bottled up behind a wall of horses coming to the top of the stretch. He then couldn’t find a clear path until the final sixteenth when it was too late. I would expect her to be more forwardly placed this time given the rider switch and lack of early speed in this field. She looked as good as ever in that allowance win at Churchill two back and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if she bounced back with a dominant win here. She’s hard to get past, but there are a few potential backups to consider. Oleksandra only got up to win by a neck in her two victories at Belmont, but she was far superior to her competition on each occasion. She overcame a ridiculously slow pace when soaring from last to first in the final furlong of that May 24 win, running a final quarter in a spectacular 21.41 seconds. She then beat males in that June score, again overcoming an unfavorable race shape to get up. Notably, Joel Rosario was aboard for those two efforts and he seems like a perfect fit for a mare who can be a little difficult to ride. She didn’t put forth her best effort at Woodbine last time, but getting back to New York with Rosario may make a big difference. She’s the main threat. Fire Key and Broadway Run are also not impossible, but it seems unlikely that they’ll beat Morticia if all get fair trips this time.

RACE 9: BLOWOUT (#4)
Chad Brown has the two likely favorites in this Lake Placid, both of whom are exiting the 3-horse Lake George, in which Brown trained the entire field. Regal Glory got the better of stablemate Blowout that day, but I think the trips may have had something to do with the result. The race actually set up very well for Regal Glory, who rated off an honest pace and got to make the last move in the stretch. That’s her preferred running style and she got to use it despite the race drawing such a small field. That was not the case for Blowout, who was forced to employ front-running tactics. She’s really more of a stalking, grinder type, lacking a great turn of foot, so Regal Glory’s blitz to the lead at the head of the stretch may have caught her off guard. Blowout fought on gamely to the wire, as she always does, but Regal Glory’s momentum carried her to victory. This time, Blowout should find herself stalking a couple of fillies to her ins ide, as both Amandrea and Vow to Recover possess decent tactical speed. I believe this daughter of Dansili is a little better with a target. She certainly tries hard to win when she’s still in contention in deep stretch, as she showed two back in that gritty Wild Applause victory. If she runs back to that kind of effort in this spot, I believe she’ll be tough to beat. The other runner to consider is Varenka, who is coming off an allowance score over the well-regarded Catch a Bid. She’s competitive with these based on her best effort, but she’s more dependent on pace than Regal Glory and Blowout.

RACE 10: STREET BAND (#5)
Dunbar Road and Point of Honor are going to attract the bulk of support in this Alabama, and I would readily concede that the y are the two most likely winners. Dunbar Road was visually impressive when taking down the Mother Goose over 5 overmatched rivals. She didn’t run a fast speed figure, but that was primarily due to the unusually slow pace of the race. Point of Honor gave heavy favorite Guarana a scare in the CCA Oaks last, cutting the margin to 1 length at the wire. Both of these fillies appear to be improving with experience and I don’t think either one is going to have a serious issue handling the stretch -out to 1 1/4 miles. However, there’s a narrative developing that this is merely a match-race between these two fillies, and I don’t think that’s exactly true. This is a competitive affair in which the two favorites do not possess a significant speed figure edge on their nearest rivals. If these fillies are in the range of 2- 1 or less on the tote board, I think that represents bad value. There are other fillies in this field who have run speed figures that put them squarely in the mix. Those include Lady Apple and Ulule, both of whom exit the Iowa Oaks. However, I have my doubts about each of them improving going this distance. My top pick is Street Band. This filly had started to show signs of turning a corner prior to the Kentucky Oaks in that dominant Fair Grounds Oaks score. The form of that race was quite strong, as runner-up Liora returned to finish second in the Kentucky Oaks, albeit with a good trip. Street Band was not so lucky on the first Friday in May as she was rank and steadied multiple times during the first 3 furlongs while traveling wide every step of the way. She bounced back nicely in the Indiana Oaks last time, winning with great ease while earning a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That number puts her on par with the two favorites and she’s likely to be a much bigger price. Furthermore, her tactical speed should ensure that she works out a favorable trip in a race that doesn’t feature a ton of pace.

Picks & Plays for Friday, August 16

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 2 - 3 - 9
Race 2:   6 - 3 - 5 - 7
Race 3:   6 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 4:   7 - 11 - 8 - 9
Race 5:   6 - 2 - 3 - 7
Race 6:   8 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 7:   1 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 8:   5 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 9:   3 - 6 - 2 - 8
Race 10:   1 - 6 - 4 - 3

PLAYS

RACE 2: DUNPH (#6)
Walkoff might go off favored in this race based on his seemingly superior speed figures, but I’ve never been the greatest fan of this horse. He got a great setup when he won his second start, taking advantage of a blazing early pace, and then he just got pulled along behind a better field two back. A turf experiment didn’t work and now he’s back in for a tag. He doesn’t have much early speed, and the pace scenario of this race is unlikely to work in his favor. The Pace Projector is predicting a No Speed situation, and I think that could give Dunph an opportunity to recapture the early speed that he once possessed. Seven furlongs may seem like a short distance for him after he failed to handle a sprint last time. However, I believe he’s better on dirt and one-turn distances between 7 furlongs and a mile should suit him. If he can run back to the efforts he put forth in races like the Tampa Bay Derby or Springboard Mile, he’s going to be tough for this field to handle. The other horse that I want to use along with him is Shock Therapy. Like Walkoff, he could also be compromised by a lack of pace. However, I liked the way he closed into a slow pace last time and he just seems like a horse who is finding his best form. Unlike Walkoff, he’ll be a decent price.

RACE 3: SHENNAN (#6)
Likely favorite Value Engineering was a scratch when entered for a $65,000 tag on July 21, which would have been a curious drop for a runner that seemingly still has potential. He’s spotted in a maiden special weight here, but that lack of confidence 4 weeks prior is still somewhat disconcerting. This runner is superior to these based on form, having finished behind eventual stakes winner Clint Maroon and G1-placed The Last Zip in his prior starts. He has always looked like one that would appreciate more ground, so the 1 3/16 miles should suit him. However, the lengthy gaps between starts suggest that he’s difficult to keep in steady training. He could be vulnerable at a short price. His main rival is Bail Out, but he has developed a habit of settling for minor awards. He finished second for the third consecutive time on July 25. While that course is listed as “good,” it was quickly becoming a bog as racing was canceled for the day immediately after that race was run. He clearly has the stamina to handle this distance and has earned some of the highest speed figures in this field, but h e usually finds one that’s better than him. I prefer a different horse exiting that rainy July 25 affair. Shennan showed promise in his first two starts in Ireland, finishing like a horse who would appreciate distances beyond a mile. He was hardly disgraced in that U.S. debut, breaking slowly and then staying on well to be third while one-paced through the stretch. There wasn’t a lot of passing going on late in that race, which may have had something to do with the intensely boggy, rainy conditions. I won’t be shocked at all if he’s fitter in his second start off the layoff, and he may appreciate getting on firm turf.

RACE 5: FUEL THE BERN (#6)
It’s difficult to know who will be favored in this confusing optional-claiming race. The two runners with recent back class, Life in Shambles and Do Share, are both coming into this race off poor efforts and seem hard to trust. Do Share would obviously trounce this group if he runs back to his Tom Fool performance from March. However, that seems very unlikely given his lackluster recent efforts and this drop back in for a tag. He’s beaten just one horse home over the course of his last two starts and he’s not going to get much pace ahead of him to set up his late run. Life in Shambles seems like a more reliable option since he at least runs semi-consistent speed figures. However, it’s been a while since he’s threatened to win a race and the move back to turf last time seems a little desperate. Now he’s dropping in for the $62,500 tag and his typical effort puts him in the mix. I just don’t want to take him as the potential favorite. Some might try to make cases for horses like Mucho and Cove Blue, and I’m not way against either of them. They just don’t really appeal to me. My top pick is Fuel the Bern, who returns from a short layoff for Danny Gargan. This horse spent much of his career racing on turf, but he’s found a new lease on life since becoming a dirt sprinter for Gargan. He moved up the class ladder over the winter, and transferred that form to Kentucky when winning an allowance at Keeneland going this distance. He found himself in a salty race on Derby weekend last time and he was hardly disgraced while fading to fifth going a distance that may be too far for him. He appears to be working well for the return and I like that he’s drawn outside of the other speeds.

RACE 7: UP THE ANTE (#1)
The Pace Projector is characterizing this race as featuring a No Speed situation, but I don’t that’s quite accurate. Up the Ante isn’t being handled as a front-runner, having been rated in his recent performances. However, the Up the Ante that we saw last year was best when using pace-setting tactics, and I would imagine the plan will be to revert to that game plan here. Up the Ante is just the only possible speed in this situation and Joel Rosario has ridden him effectively on the front end. His two prior turf wins have come going one turn at Belmont, but he proved his ability to handle two turns at Saratoga when finishing second in the Saranac last year. He didn’t run well in the Monmouth Stakes last time, but that came against a significantly tougher field, and he was unable to make the lead. I think he’s going to give a much better account of himself here, and you couldn’t ask for a more favorable setup. His main rival may be Aquaphobia, who figures to appreciate a slight turnback in distance after fading behind the highly regarded Annals of Time last time. That was his first start since February and he figures to improve in his second start off the layoff. The others just don’t do a great deal for me. Runners like Maraud and Multiplier have probably seen better days, and their late-running styles may compromise their chances.

RACE 9: ANOTHER MIRACLE (#3)
It’s hard to get past the two favorites in this Skidmore. Another Miracle may go off as the slight choice as he makes his turf debut, and I think he’s a deserving favorite. This horse showed a ton of ability from the start, running second to eventual Saratoga Special winner Green Light Go in his debut. He then improved second time out, earning a 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure when beating a solid off-the-turf field here a few weeks ago. Notably, he was intended for turf that day and he gets his chance over the new surface here. American Pharoah is proving to be a solid turf influence and there is enough pedigree on the dam’s side to suggest he should have no trouble transferring his dirt form to grass. He’s reportedly been working well over the Oklahoma turf course. Furthermore, he possesses superior early speed and he could just control the entire way over a turf course that has gotten very firm. Montauk Daddy hasn’t run quite as fast, but he figures to give the favorite a challenge at some point. He was second to the talented Tuggle when rained off the grass in his debut and then he appeared to love the turf when winning his maiden last time, surviving a fast pace. Linda Rice adds Lasix for this stakes debut. However, he may find himself on the case this time since Another Miracle seems to be a little quicker in the early stages. The others are probably competing for minor awards. I would use Proven Strategies and Now Is as backups and underneath.

RACE 10: TALESPIN (#1)
The finale is a frustrating race where you have to choose among a group of maidens with uninspiring form. I suppose Paynter’s Prize is the horse to beat off his trip last time. Dropping in for a tag for the first time, he appeared to be in a good spot, but things just didn’t work out for him through the stretch. He was in a difficult spot stymied inside and had to steady as runners shifted about in upper stretch. He clearly would have finished much closer with a clean trip, so he deserves another look in a similar spot. However, he’s always been a difficult horse to ride and I don’t fully trust him at what figures to be another short price. I want a new face, so I’m taking a shot with Talespin. This horse showed a bit of ability on dirt against cheap foes over the winter, and he should be a pace presence from this inside slot going a mile. There is enough pedigree for this runner to handle grass since Forty Tales is a decent turf influence and he’s a half-brother to 3-time turf winner Bluegrass Springs. While it appears that he ran very poorly in his return on dirt last time, that performance is not nearly as disappointing as it seems. The rail was as dead as it’s ever been on July 26, and Talespin was right down inside for the majority of his trip. You can draw a line through that race and he figures to have gotten some needed fitness out of it. I don’t think anyone in that race is this formidable, so I’m willing to take a shot with this horse at a price.

Picks & Plays for Thursday, August 15

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 2:   3 - 10 - 4 - 6
Race 3:   4 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 4:   4 - 1 - 9 - 10
Race 5:   1 - 7 - 5 - 4
Race 6:   6 - 11 - 1 - 7
Race 7:   5 - 11 - 1 - 9
Race 8:   2 - 1 - 5 - 8
Race 9:   8 - 5 - 2 - 12

PLAYS

RACE 3: TALE OF SILENCE (#4)
It will be interesting to see how the public approaches this compact field, which includes four horses with plenty of back class, all of whom are difficult to assess. Plainsman is likely to vie for favoritism, but this seems like merely a starting point for his delayed 4-year-old campaign. He really hit his stride in the second half of 2018 for Brad Cox, winning a couple of tough allowance races prior to taking down the Discovery. He now shows up in Shug McGaughey’s barn and this is probably just a stepping-stone to an autumn target. That said, this tank of a colt possesses a ton of talent and he has looked pretty solid in his recent drills. I’m using him, but others seem like better fits for this spot. Things have gotten off to a pretty slow start in 2019 for No Dozing after he concluded his prior season looking like a potential Grade 1-level sprinter/miler. That Bold Ruler win was both visually impressive and incredibly fast. While he’s been off form since returning this year, he is now returning to the Spa, which is where he got his career back on track with a win at this distance last summer. He should sit a great stalking trip off the two speeds and there’s little doubt that his best effort will put him in the winner's circle. I’m using him, but my top pick is Tale of Silence. The victories have become scarce for this 5-year-old and that’s largely due to a steady diet of graded stakes attempts. He’s just not quite good enough to beat the best sprinter/milers out there, but he always puts in a reliably competitive effort no matter the class level. He was in way over his head in the Met Mile last time and he wasn’t even disgraced in defeat. He really hasn’t had an opportunity to put his best foot forward yet this year, so the drop in class may do wonders for his confidence. He needs a little help from a pace standpoint, and he may get it with speeds Uncontested and Lenstar in the field.

RACE 5: TEACHABLE MOMENT (#1)
Sneakiness is a deserving favorite in this spot as he drops down to face maiden claiming foes for the first time. He’s the type of horse who probably isn’t going to be winning races at the maiden special weight level, so risking him for the $50,000 tag makes sense. I won’t hold the turf experiment against him, and now he’s just getting back on the right surface. He was facing a very strong field in his last dirt start on June 7, and he actually did well to finish fourth after a wide trip against a rail bias. I’m hardly against him, but there are many ways to go in this spot. Swick comes in with a similar profile after losing in that same June 7 event and then trying turf for the first time. That grass attempt failed miserably, but now he’s back in the right spot at a more realistic class level. I’m using him prominently, but I want to look at a horse who has already raced for a tag. Teachable Moment primarily raced on turf for the Chad Brown barn, but his lone dirt start last summer was actually fine. He probably would have won that race had he been running straight, since he was ducking in and out from the whip throughout the stretch drive. That race has actually been mildly productive and it’s not as if Teachable Moment improved much when switched back to the grass. Rob Atras has made some astute claims over the past year or so and I think he’s acquired a gelding who fits very well in this kind of spot. The horse that I don’t want is Cobble Hill. I know Todd Pletcher has strong numbers with maiden claiming droppers, but he does better with dirt routers. This horse’s lone dirt start was fairly lackluster and he’s been training with Bebeau, who disappointed off a similar drop last week.

RACE 7: TZIPI (#5)
It’s difficult to know which, if any, of the short prices can be trusted in this perplexing NY-bred allowance race. I suppose Hollywood Cat may be favored, but she was beating a very weak field at Monmouth last time and has not looked quite good enough to win at this level in any of her starts for Jason Servis, who has notably failed to improve this mare. Beaux Arts and Silencia are interesting shippers, but they are both one-dimensional speed types who could be compromised by a potential fast pace. Of the two, Beaux Arts undoubtedly brings the stronger form, having faced decent open company rivals in her recent starts, but she’s developed a habit of racking up second-place finishes. The other logical player is Andretta. While she’s clearly in career form, she’s coming off a mere maiden victory and may find this step up in class to be daunting. If I’m going to take a horse with limited experience against winners, I’m going to look for a better price with Tzipi. She didn’t earn the fastest speed figure when breaking her maiden at Aqueduct two back, but she did well to get up after racing a bit greenly through the stretch. She looked like a horse who needed a start when she returned last time, as she was away slowly and then was ridden tentatively thereafter. That performance is not as bad as it seems and now Linda Rice adds blinkers and taps previous regular rider Jose Lezcano to reclaim the mount. I expect a much better effort this time.

RACE 8: BONITA BIANCA (#2)
Holiday Disguise may no longer be in the best form of her career, but she’s still pretty formidable in these state-bred stakes races as a 5-yearold. She was unable to hang with graded stakes foes in two starts this spring, but she’s nevertheless won her last two starts against New York-breds. She handles the distance and she figures to get some pace to close into. I don’t totally trust her given her lack of consistency over the past year, but she’s the horse to beat. A number of those potential speeds are interesting contenders. Baby Boss would be intimidating if she were able to repeat that 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned last time. However, that was going a furlong shorter and she has yet to translate that Laurel form to New York. Carrera Cat and Fair Regis both improved against open company recently, but they each do their best work on the front end. This seems like a race that should set up for a late runner, so I’m going to take a shot with Bonita Bianca at what figures to be a square price. She’s the defending champion in this race, and I think it’s notable that her win here a year ago was the last time that she sprinted. Despite being a rangy daughter of Curlin who looks like a router, she’s clearly run some of her best races at sprint distances. You could even argue that she should be undefeated in races under a mile considering her poor trip at Delaware last summer. I don’t mind the turnback in distance and I certainly wouldn’t put it past this barn to get her back into top form.

Picks & Plays for Wednesday, August 14

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 8 - 7 - 3
Race 2:   2 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 3:   6 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 4:   11 - 7 - 12 - 6
Race 5:   2 - 6 - 4 - 1
Race 6:   10 - 3 - 6 - 9
Race 7:   5 - 6 - 4 - 1
Race 8:   7 - 4 - 8 - 1
Race 9:   9 - 2 - 7 - 10
Race 10:   12 - 11 - 2 - 1

PLAYS

RACE 2: MORE THUNDER (#2)
Beyond Gone figures to go off as a heavy favorite in this race after running well in a similar spot in his debut. He was a little green in the early stages of that race, rushing up down the backstretch while racing keenly behind a moderate pace. He eventually found room in the lane and briefly looked like a winner before he was overhauled by his stablemate. He figures to improve off that effort and his trainer Ken McPeek is 10 for 43 (23%, $2.90 ROI) with 2-year-old second time starting maidens in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. While I’m hardly against him, he wasn’t facing the strongest field last time and I think there’s at least one new rival in this race who might have more ability than the horses he met in his debut. More Thunder makes his first start for Steve Klesaris, who can win with a firster from time to time. This colt knows his way around a 2-year-old in training sale, having been entered in 3 of them. He was an RNA twice earlier in the year for larger sums – one time failing to sell for $120,000. Yet he finally changed hands for just $40,000 in his most recent sale in June, making him eligible for this race. All of his drills at those sales looked solid, including his 10 1/5 clocking at OBS in June. More recently, I liked the way he was striding through the stretch working a half-mile in 48 2/5 last week. It seems like this son of Goldencents has some speed to him and I don’t think he has to be the most talented firster to overhaul a favorite that might be overrated.

RACE 4: BAD GUY (#11)
This New York-bred N1X allowance drew a much weaker field than the division of this race that was run on Sunday, won by Cross Border. Gosilently was a longshot in that field, but he inherits the favorite’s role against this far less daunting group. His best efforts make him fast enough to win races at this level. He displayed good form upon initially coming to New York last summer, ultimately getting a victory over a chewed-up Belmont course in October. However, his only start in 2019 was fairly disappointing, as he backed up in the lane after setting a moderate early pace. He’s likely to step forward out of that effort, but he’s not the most reliable win candidate, as his career record stands at just 2 for 20 lifetime. Yet, if we’re going to hold that against him, then my top pick is in even worse shape. Bad Guy is 1 for 27 lifetime with 15 second- and third place finishes. However, it is worth noting that just 10 of those 27 starts came on turf, which is clearly his preferred surface. Furthermore, he broke his maiden just three starts ago, and his two subsequent efforts against winners have been two of the best performances of his career. He closed well to be third behind superior rivals Mr. Massena and Stock Trade two back. Then last time, he actually did very well to rally up into fourth at 26-1 against a far tougher starter allowance field. His closing style may be a liability in a race where Gosilently is predicted to control the pace up front, yet Bad Guy is capable of sitting a bit closer to slow fractions. I like that Irad Ortiz is taking the mount, and his overall record figures to ward off many potential backers, ensuring that he’s a playable price.

RACE 5: KATAMA MOONLIGHT (#2)
Potential favorite My Bronx Tail seemed cut out to be a decent turf sprinter last year before things went awry during the summer. She is reportedly difficult to handle, and she sometimes loses her cool pre-race. Yet that was not the case last time when she fired a top effort off the layoff. Her speed figures to make her very dangerous once again, though the stretch-out to seven furlongs may suit others better. My Happy Place was well supported last time when finishing far behind My Bronx Tail. She had previously shown a ton of promise when closing to be second in her debut after steadying at a couple of points on the turn. She’s clearly bred to be a racehorse, being out of the Grade 1-placed My Happy Face. Shug tends to get these to keep improving over time, and the trajectory isn’t always linear, so I wouldn’t be too concerned about the regression last time. She’s worth including, yet my top pick is one of the fillies returning from a layoff. Katama Moonlight made one start late in her 2-year-old season and her greenness got the best of her. She was off about a length slowly and was sluggish thereafter before making a sustained rally to be third. It wasn’t a fast race, but it was nevertheless a solid starting point for a filly who is bred to go two turns. After all, she is a full sister to Noble Moon, a Grade 2- winning dirt router. Katama Moonlight has recently been working in company with talented unraced filly Indian Pride, and she holds her own against that one. She appears ready to return with an improved effort and the distance suits her.

RACE 6: MAZAL EIGHTEEN (#10)
There’s a lot going on in this fascinating New York-bred maiden turf route. The likely favorite will probably be first time starter Astoria Kitten. This filly is obviously bred for turf, being by Kitten’s Joy out of a productive female family. Her dam has produced a number of talented runners, including the stakes-placed mare Satisfy and the turf winner Sanctify. Danny Gargan can obviously get a firster ready and he’s been sending out nothing but live runners at this meet. Furthermore, reports are that she’s been working well for this unveiling. I’m definitely afraid of her, but I’m not one to take short prices on first time starters in races with other appealing options. Among the firsters, I’d be just as interested in Kiss and Run, who is bred to be a good turf horse as a half-sister to multiple stakes-placed grass runner Mo Maverick. She cost a sizable sum as a yearling and has been training like one who will appreciate two turns. I’m definitely using her, but experience is often valuable in these races and there are some second time starters worth considering. Devils Rendezvous has plenty of turf pedigree. Daredevil is probably going to turn out to be a decent turf influence and her dam earned both of her victories on turf. My top pick is Mazal Eighteen, who figures to be a square price in this spot. She was reportedly training very well on turf for Danny Gargan prior to her debut, but she didn’t handle the dirt at all when that race was rained off. I’m not going to hold that performance against her, and she’d normally be one that you want to afford another chance on the proper surface. I’m not sure what happened since that race to necessitate the trainer change to Pat Reynolds, but I have a feeling she may get somewhat ignored due to that switch. It’s a good sign that Irad Ortiz takes the mount, and this filly obviously has the look of a horse with some ability to have sold for $220,000 with very little pedigree. Will Take Charge is a 15% turf sire and there are plenty of grass influences going back to the second generation on the dam’s side.

RACE 9: YES I SEE (#9)
This is one of the most intriguing races on the card, since you can make a valid case for most of the horses entered for turf. Given the wide open nature of this race, I don’t want to accept a short price on Harv Won’t Tap. This horse comes into this race with superior speed figures, many of which were earned at higher class levels. However, he’s now dropping significantly in his second start off the claim while exiting some strong barns. Bruce Brown is just 3 for 32 (9%, $0.39 ROI) with horses dropping in claiming price by 50% or more, so it’s possible that this one may regress. Furthermore, he’s a dead closer in a race that does not feature a ton of speed. The likely leader is Coltrane, who was somewhat interesting as the pacesetter in a race at this level on July 13. While he could only manage to finish 6th that day, he actually did reasonably well while setting a pace that fell apart in the late stages. Since then, he threw down a bullet 4 furlongs in 46 3/5 seconds last week, a work that was over a second faster than the next-fastest drill at that distance. This horse has plenty of prior speed figures that make him competitive, and he may just be rounding back into form in his third start off the layoff. I’m using him, but my top pick is Yes I See as he returns to the grass. While his last 9 starts have come on the dirt, this horse was once clearly best on the turf. Seven of his 13 lifetime wins have come on that surface and he finished in the exacta in 13 of his 27 turf starts. This 8-year-old has experienced some peaks and valleys in his form over the past few seasons, but it appears that Robertino Diodoro has him heading in the right direction again. I loved the way he skipped over a sealed surface at Oaklawn two back – albeit against cheaper – and he did very well to beat a better field at Churchill last time after getting badly impeded at the start. This old-timer has been working very steadily – every 7 or 8 days like clockwork – for the past 5 weeks, which would appear to indicate that he’s sound and ready to put forth a top effort in this return to grass.

RACE 10: SUBSIDIARY (#12)
A Dixie Twister is 2 for 2 since returning to Mike Miceli’s barn earlier this spring. She won twice at the same $32,000 claiming level at Belmont and was particularly dominant when winning by 2 1/2 lengths last time. Yet, she worked out absolutely perfect trips in both of those starts and may find herself having to rally from farther back in the pack here with so much speed signed on. Morissette should be more forwardly placed after she displayed improved early speed in her most recent start at Monmouth. She was put on a hard chase in the early going, reeling in and overhauling an odds-on favorite on her way to victory. This is a step up in class, but she clearly handles these abbreviated sprint distances and her last speed figure puts her in the mix. I’m using both of these, but I think there are some other options to consider at better prices. A filly who scares me is Ardara Belle. She’s never run fast enough to win at this level, but she notably improved on dirt last time and that’s probably not her preferred surface. She had been a bit of a nutcase for her prior connections, but Rob Atras seems to have figured out that she needs to be sent to the front. She’s part of my play, but my top pick is Subsidiary. This filly figures to appreciate the turnback to a turf sprint. She lost all chance at the start of that stakes last time when she broke slowly and was squeezed back. A mile is probably too far for her anyway, as she displayed in her initial turf start back in June. She’s been most proficient over shorter sprint distances on dirt, and her pedigree indicates that 5 1/2 furlongs is about as far as she wants to go. I like the outside post for her and Joel Rosario should be a good fit.

Picks & Plays for Sunday, August 11

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 2:   1A - 8 - 2 - 5
Race 3:   1 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 4:   4 - 3 - 7 - 8
Race 5:   8 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 6:   3 - 10 - 6 - 7
Race 7:   6 - 1 - 3 - 8
Race 8:   2 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 9:   3 - 10 - 2 - 5
Race 10:   7 - 2 - 8 - 4

PLAYS

RACE 1: ONE EYED JACK (#2)
Chad Brown has the two major players in this race, though one is likely to be a much shorter price. Expected favorite Majority Rules showed some promise in his debut, closing well going a one-turn mile at Belmont. He was ridden far more aggressively last time out, as Castellano attempted to take advantage of a paceless situation by going to the front. He ran an excellent race that day, turning back multiple challenges, but couldn't fend off the very impressive winner Scars Are Cool. He obviously handles the distance, and should benefit from a more patient ride this time with some other potential speeds drawn to his inside. I don’t really have any knocks against him, but I do think his stablemate can offer up a genuine challenge. One Eyed Jack stretches out off an encouraging debut and is bred to handle added ground. Uncle Mo is as versatile a sire as is currently standing, and his dam (4 for 16, $96K) is a rare horse who was about equally proficient on all 3 surfaces (dirt, turf, and synthetic). The dam is a full sister to Doctor Mounty (8 for 29, $499K), a multiple G3 winner on turf, and Dabster (5 for 13, $347K), who won or placed in dirt stakes at distances ranging from a mile to 1 3/4 miles. I liked the way this colt gamely chased home the top two finishers last time through a very fast final quarter. He was compromised by a very slow pace (indicated by blue color-coded pace figures) and did well to hold his ground though the stretch.

RACE 3: SLIP SLIDING AWAY (#1)
If she draws into this race, Sharing is likely to be the favorite. She was closing well at the end of her debut, but it should be noted that the race fell apart in the final sixteenth as longtime leader Sequin just ran out of gas. Despite being a daughter of Speightstown, this filly is bred to stretch out, since her dam was a winner of the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf going 1 3/8 miles. However, Graham Motion has very poor numbers with this move. Over the past 5 years, he is 3 for 52 (6%, $0.51 ROI) with second-time starting maidens going from sprints to routes on turf. I actually prefer the horse who has already run this distance on the grass, Morning Gold. She benefited from racing up close to a very slow pace last time, but she still finished up strongly, drawing nearly 5 lengths clear of the rest of the field while finishing second to the talented Sweet Melania. I respect these runners, but there are a couple of first time starters that interest me. The more obvious one is Windfall Profit, who debuts for Shug McGaughey and has Joel Rosario named. This daughter of Malibu Moon is out of a multiple Grade 3 winner on turf who has produced this filly’s half-brother Profiteer, a solid turf runner. The grey homebred looked to have some run to her in that drill on July 19 when she clearly outworked the older maiden Keepme in Thegame. I’m using her, but my top pick is Slip Sliding Away, who goes out for Jimmy Toner. I know this barn isn’t known for debut success, but I think this filly might have some ability. She has looked very good in her workouts, particularly in that drill two back when she broke a bit slowly from the gate but easily outworked a stablemate thereafter. She’s definitely bred to be a turf horse, being by budding turf influence American Pharoah out of a dam who was a Grade 3 stakes winner on turf.

RACE 5: MAMA MARY (#8)
First Appeal may go off as the favorite as she makes her second start for the Brad Cox barn following a trainer switch. This filly had once been quite formidable in these races for her prior trainer Linda Rice. Yet she went badly off form in 2018 and was dropped in to face cheaper company. Brad Cox was able to rekindle her competitive spirit last time, as she ran one of her better races to be third at this level going 7 furlongs. That distance has always been at the outer limits of what she can handle, so this turnback to 5 1/2 furlongs should be right up her alley. If some pace develops up front, she should be charging in the lane. I’m using her, but there are many others to consider. Sadie Lady was visually impressive in her victory at the N1X allowance level last time. Joel Rosario seems to have developed a good rapport with her and he’s always dangerous in these races. I’d include her, but my top pick is actually the filly who finished ahead of her two back. Mama Mary may get somewhat overlooked in this spot due to her inferior speed figures. However, I think there’s a case to be made that the 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure and 65 Beyer that she earned last time should actually be higher. Both Sadie Lady and Questeq, the 8th place finisher, have run faster speed figure before and after that race. Mama Mary has been intended for turf in all 6 of her starts, but 4 of those have been washed off the grass. She’s clearly better on this surface, and her form probably doesn’t make that as apparent as it should be. Furthermore, Joe Sharp is an excellent 19 for 76 (25 percent, $2.56 ROI) with horses coming off wins in turf sprints. She should sit a good stalking trip under Luis Saez.

RACE 7: SOUTHERN KING (#6)
This is a fascinating New York-bred N1X allowance race, since you have new faces coming in from a multitude of different class levels instead of the same old cast of characters. The likely favorite is Cross Border, who has been in raging form since returning from a lengthy layoff for Mike Maker. He almost won going 6 furlongs two back, a distance that is probably too short for him, and he seemed far more comfortable stretching out last time. He did benefit from a favorable pace scenario in that most recent win, but he kicked away decisively in the lane, beating a field of comparable quality to this one. I’m definitely using him prominently, but now he has to stretch out to 9 furlongs and fend off some improving younger rivals. The most intriguing alternatives are all 3-year-olds. Graded On a Curve is a rare Chad Brown runner that may actually be a decent price. He looks slower than these based on speed figures, but I liked the way he won last time, comfortably overhauling that field while taken in hand in the late stages. He showed some promise as a 2-year-old and has every right to keep progressing in his second start off the layoff. My top selection is Southern King, who makes his turf debut. While he doesn’t have a ton of turf breeding on the dam’s side of his pedigree, Animal Kingdom is an excellent grass influence and this gelding’s full-brother was a turf winner. He’s getting some changes for this race, as he makes his first start as a gelding and Pletcher removes the blinkers he wore last time. He showed some promise in his early races on dirt and he is apparently working well enough on the turf recently for Pletcher to point for a spot like this. I like that he gets Joel Rosario back aboard and I don’t think he’ll have any issues with the added distance.

RACE 8: COOKIE DOUGH (#2)
It’s been a frustrating year so far for Talk Veuve to Me. Her series of woes continued last time out when she was pretty dull finishing third as the 8-5 public choice. Perhaps she didn’t like the mud, or perhaps she’s just lost the blazing early speed that she possessed as a younger horse. I suppose her third place finish was flattered when Special Relativity returned to win the Shine Again with a 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure, but it’s not as if that was the strongest stakes event. Talk Veuve to Me was entered in that race but she’s instead contesting this optional claimer and adding blinkers. I’m using her, but I strongly prefer Cookie Dough at what figures to be a similar price. While it might not appear that she’s improved for new trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, she’s actually run very well in each of her last two starts. She had no chance to be around at the end of the Acorn after contesting the front end with the likes of Serengeti Empress and Guarana. McLaughlin tried turning her back in distance in the Victory Ride last time, and I thought she actually ran very well despite the fact that she finished far behind Royal Charlotte. The pace of that race was very fast for the distance, which explains Cookie Dough’s inflated 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure, bumped up 11 points over her final time figure. Yet it’s not as if that’s the only fast figure that she’s earned this year, a s she ran faster than Talk Veuve to Me in the Gulfstream Park Oaks and Black Eyed Susan as well. I don’t mind that she’s drawn inside of Talk Veuve to Me, since she’s a front-runner and has the stamina to get the 7-furlong distance. Cookie Dough just appears to be an improving 3-year-old who has probably found the right field of older rivals.

RACE 9: SISTER PEACOCK (#3)
There are many contenders to consider in this wide-open Galway Stakes. Karama figures to attract support after dominating a very good group in the Stormy Blues at Laurel last time. In her first attempt at a turf sprint she sped off to a clear early lead and never looked like a loser while holding sway over the very good Change of Control in the late stages. She probably doesn’t need to improve much off that effort to beat this field, but she may have to adapt to a different trip. She’s a run-off leader type and there is plenty of other speed in this race, so she may not be alone up front. Eyeinthesky merits consideration after she closed for second in the Coronation Cup last time behind the undefeated Break Even. She figures to get another strong pace to close into here, and she had an excuse for that poor showing at Monmouth two back. She makes a ton of sense from a pace standpoint, but others have more upside. Brooke Marie is another closer to consider, since she seems to be hitting her stride as a turf sprinter now as a more mature 3-year-old. She wasn’t beating much at Monmouth last time, but she was impressive blowing that field away in the lane. I’m using her prominently, but there are some intriguing shippers to consider instead. My top pick is Sister Peacock, who comes in from Woodbine. Like Karama, she’s done her best work on the front end, but she seems like she might be more tractable. She seemed perfectly comfortable rating alongside another horse through moderate fractions going a mile last time, so it’s not like she’s some speed-crazy speedball. This filly is undefeated in sprint races and has really never been challenged in races under a mile. It’s notable that 3 of her 4 turf outings have come in routes, so she may be even better on turf than her form suggests. I was quite impressed by that win in the Graham at Woodbine two back and I believe she’s going to outrun her odds in this confusing race.

RACE 10: DURESS (#7)
There’s not a ton of useful form on which to base your opinions in this perplexing maiden claiming event. For that reason, a horse like first time starter Secular Stagnation may go off as the favorite, and I’m not convinced that he’s one that you really want. This is one of these professional workmates that Chad Brown seems to find populating his barn. He’s put in 37 timed drills since his 2-year-old season without ever having raced. He’s worked in company with a number of his stablemates and has proven inferior to many of them. The fact that this quarter-million dollar colt is debuting so late for a tag is probably not a good sign. I think this is a good spot for second time starter Duress. He was going 5 1/2 furlongs in his debut against a solid maiden special weight group and he was hardly disgraced. He was slow into stride and lagged well behind early before making a solid late run through the final quarter mile. He was passing horses quickly across the wire and galloped out ahead of the field soon after the wire. It is perhaps a little hasty for his connections to drop him in for a tag after a somewhat encouraging debut, but the maiden special weight races at this meet come up very tough. He’s supposed to improve with added distance, since his dam is a half-sister to top class turf routers like Shakespeare and Perfect Shirl.

Picks & Plays for Saturday, August 10

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 2:   7 - 9 - 2 - 8
Race 3:   4 - 7 - 8 - 10
Race 4:   2 - 1 - 9 - 8
Race 5:   7 - 2 - 8 - 1
Race 6:   7 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 7:   7 - 2 - 6 - 1A
Race 8:   3 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 9:   3 - 4 - 9 - 8
Race 10:   4 - 3 - 8 - 2
Race 11:   9 - 2 - 5 - 3

PLAYS

RACE 1: CLOONTIA (#7)
Startup Nation is obviously the horse to beat, but he’s not one that you can trust as he returns from a 21-month layoff. While he ran well when last seen in 2017, many layoffs had preceded that appearance as well. He hasn’t actually won a race since his 2-year-old season in 2014. He will obviously win this race if he returns in top form, but Chad Brown is clearly trying to get him off his hands by dropping him in for $25,000. Furthermore, it’s fair to be somewhat concerned about his running style, since he’s a deep-closing plodder in a race that doesn’t feature much early speed. Many will consider the horses coming out of the July 7 race won by The J Y as alternatives. I could use Blame the Thief, who has done well going longer in the past and did seem to improve off the claim by Rob Atras. However, my top pick is Cloontia, who just seems to fit the conditions of this race better than any of his rivals. He’s a turf router who is clearly best around two turns, so I’m not at all concerned about the 1 1/16 miles distance. He wanted no part of 5 1/2 furlongs last time, and he was compromised by a slow break. He actually ran quite well two back behind the talented Everyonelovesjames, and he also put in a good effort in his first start off the claim for these connections all the way back in April. I think he’s well-spotted here and he possesses the tactical speed to be close to the pace, so he shouldn’t be compromised by a slow tempo. The Steve Klesaris barn won a turf race earlier this week and they may get another here.

RACE 3: MY SACRED PLACE (#4)
The horse to beat in this race is Decorated Invader. The speed figures for his debut –both Beyer and TimeformUS –did not come back particularly fast, but that’s primarily due to the slow pace of that race. We saw fourth-place finisher Our Country return to win last week with a vastly improved speed figure. Perhaps he just took a big step forward, or maybe that July 11 affair is better than it seems. Decorated Invader ran far better than Our Country that day, since he was far behind the slow early pace and was closing best of all at the end. If he steps forward with routine improvement, he’ll be tough to beat. Fame to Famous ran faster in his debut, mostly because he was part of a faster race. He probably would have finished closer had he not been cut off by a drifting rival in the last eighth, but he ha d gotten a good trip up until that point. He’s a contender, but it’s just harder to trust this low-percentage barn. I’ll use both, but I’m interested in My Sacred Place in his turf debut. This horse doesn’t have overwhelming turf pedigree on the dam’s side, but his dam was a capable synthetic runner. However, he’s by good turf route influence Temple City, so I’m encouraged that he’s going to handle added ground on the grass. I liked the way he was finishing in his debut, with long, reaching strides, indicative of turf proclivity. He didn’t run as well last time, but he was also meeting a much tougher field, since winner Meru seems like a potential stakes horse. Servis has solid statistics with horses switching surfaces, so he figures to move forward here.

RACE 5: TUMBLING SKY (#7)
There are a pair of two-year-old maiden races at 6 furlongs on the dirt on this card, and it appears that this may be the stronger division. A number of the first time starters seem live, led by the $1.4 million yearling purchase Kittansett, who makes his debut for Chad Brown. This American Pharoah colt is a half-brother to turf winner Vigilante, and he may ultimately do well on that surface. However, he’s worked very well on the dirt for his debut, recording some fast times. Most recently, he easily handled an unraced horse named Structor on August 3 and was striding out very well past the wire. He should be dangerous, but there are some others to consider for very good barns. That includes Irish Front, who also has more of a turf pedigree, but seems to be doing well in his morning preparation for Todd Pletcher. I would even use Bellavia prominently, despite the fact that he goes out for the low-percentage Jena Antonucci barn. This son of Honor Code has a nice pedigree as a half-brother to Grade 2 winner Live Lively. I’ve watched a few of his workouts – mostly solo drills – and he appears to be some ability. All of these horses are part of my play, but my top pick is Tumbling Sky. Steve Asmussen has brought a good string of 2-year-olds to Saratoga this meet, and he’s starting a pair of live-looking runners in maiden races on Saturday. Tumbling Sky is by breakout freshman sire Competitive Edge and is from a sprint family that includes stakes winner Forest Music, the dam of Maclean’s Music. I really liked the long, reaching stride that was on display in his sales workout at the Fasig-Tipton Timonium sale in May. Since then, he seems to be preparing well in the mornings here at Saratoga. He easily dispatched of a workmate in a gate drill on July 28, looking like a quick horse who can win first time out.

RACE 8: GREEN LIGHT GO (#3)
This Saratoga Special drew a field of promising runners, many of whom seem capable of stepping forward off their maiden win. However, I believe they’ll all be hard-pressed to overhaul the likely favorite Green Light Go. I’m not one to heavily endorse horses at short prices, but I find it hard to go against this favorite. Green Light Go made his debut at Belmont, and he had some things go his way. He was allowed to set a slow pace on the front end in a race where some others had a bit of trouble in behind him. Yet I don’t think there was ever any doubt that he was winning that race, as he easily drew away in the final furlong under light handling with powerful strides. This horse is bred to be fast since he’s out of the dam Light Green, who was second in the Grade 1 Prioress going 6 furlongs. In his debut, he just appeared to be physically superior to the other 2-year-olds, as he towered over his rivals. That race was flattered when runner-up Another Miracle returned to win, improving his TimeformUS Speed Figure by 9 points. Green Light Go led all the way in that race, but he strikes me as one that can also sit off rivals. He may need to do so in a race loaded with speed. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace with Tuggle and King Snake predicted to be the main pace rivals. Tuggle ran well to win his debut in fast time, but he’s really bred to be a turf horse, so I wonder if he’ll be as effective over a fast dirt surface. Noose was visually impressive in his debut, but the race came back fairly slow. That said, at least he proved that he can rate behind horses and finish, so he should be charging late.

RACE 9: UNI (#3)
It’s not really my style to default to favorites, but I find it pretty hard to get past the 5-year-old mare Uni as she steps up in this Fourstardave. At first glance, it might seem like a tall order for a filly to compete against males in a Grade 1 race. Yet this is not the toughest division at this point in time, with no dominant force, especially since Bricks and Mortar is targeting longer races for the time being. When you remove the two females from this field, the group resembles the same ones that we saw in two Grade 3 events this spring, the Forbidden Apple and the Poker. The only real new face is Raging Bull, who is cutting back in distance after finishing behind Bricks and Mortar in two straight starts. I’ve always felt that a mile was probably his best distance, so I like this spot for him. He’s coming into this race in solid form and is clearly the one to beat among the males. However, it’s interesting that his regular rider Joel Rosario has opted to get off him and instead ride his new mount Uni. A mile is the best distance for her as well and she appears to be in the best form of her career right now. When she’s ready to run a top race, she is able to unleash a furious stretch rally that may be superior to every other runner in this field. Indeed, her TimeformUS Late Pace Rating of 124 is the highest in this field by 9 points. That’s especially significant in races that are likely to feature some pace, and that could be the case here with Dr. Edgar, Gidu, and Ostilio all likely to show speed in this spot. I realize that Uni will probably get overbet due to her fan following in this situation, but I also think that she’s the most likely winner.

RACE 10: LA CHANCLA (#4)
I’m not trying to beat likely favorite La Chancla, who seems like a filly with real quality in an otherwise lackluster N1X allowance race. This $775,000 juvenile purchase has all the upside after beating a solid maiden field at Belmont last time. She was off slowly and pushed in at the start of her debut, yet she still ran on well to be fourth. She was much more professional last time, showing improved early speed, coming through inside, and running down a loose early leader. Rodolphe Brisset is an amazing 7-for-11 (73%, $7.14 ROI) with last-out maiden winners on the dirt, so he clearly gets these horses to keep improving with maturity. A moderate pace seems likely so she'll have to avoid getting outrun early, but that's the only knock against this favorite. If she continues improving, I predict she’ll be too tough for this field to handle. Her main rival may be the potential speed Alisio. This Godolphin homebred filly was much the best over a muddy surface with the addition of blinkers back in December. As a 2-year-old, she earned speed figure that puts her squarely in the mix in this allowance field 8 months later, so she would be formidable with routine improvement. McLaughlin is 8-for-46 (17%, $1.53 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more in dirt sprints over 5 years. She is bred to be a nice one since her dam is a half-sister to $1.2 million-earner Better Lucky. Furthermore, the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that this race will favor horses on or near the lead and she could be the speed. I’m using her prominently as the main alternative. I’ll also throw in Havre de Grace’s daughter Graceful Princess, but I’m starting to wonder if she just hasn’t panned out after an auspicious start to her career. She was against a slow pace last time and the turnback may help her, but I wouldn’t accept too short of a price on that one.