Track Trends

NYRA handicapper Andy Serling analyzes Aqueduct track trends and conditions in hopes to uncover insights about potential track biases. This can be a helpful resource for handicappers, as track dynamics can change from one day to the next.

2026

Saturday, February 21

Track Condition: Muddy ( sealed )
Weather: Cloudy
Temperature: 46
Wind: 5 to 10 MPH NW

The track played fairly, with a mix of successful running styles. The rail was fine but no advantage.

Friday, February 20

Track Condition: Sloppy ( sealed )
Weather: Rainy
Temperature: 39
Wind: 15 to 25 MPH East

The track played fairly, with a mix of successful running styles, though much of the best running was done off the rail. However, we saw some effective running inside, which makes it hard to say the rail was bad.

Thursday, February 19

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Cloudy
Temperature: 41
Wind: 15 to 25 MPH East

The track played fairly.

Sunday, February 15

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Cloudy
Temperature: 40
Wind: 10 to 20 MPH East

There were times where the track appeared to be more fair than the prior seven racing days, but saving ground for an extended portion of the race still appeared to be a significant advantage, if not quite as big as some recent days.The bias only appears mitigated because of how strong it has been for the past two weeks.

Saturday, February 14

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Clear
Temperature: 41
Wind: 15 to 25 MPH West

The track was fairer than the previous six racing days, but still biased, as the rail continues to be an advantage, though perhaps not as strong as recent days. Being forward, however, continues to be an advantage as we did not see a lot of movement from the back of the pack. Many of the races also had significant gaps between runners at the finish.

Friday, February 13

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Clear
Temperature: 37
Wind: 5 to 15 MPH NW

Another day with an extreme inside bias. Saving ground for at least the majority of the race was pretty much a prerequisite for success.

Thursday, February 12

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Clear
Temperature: 35
Wind: 15 to 25 MPH NW

The rail, saving ground, continues to be a significant advantage.

Wednesday, February 11

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Cloudy
Temperature: 40
Wind: 15 to 25 MPH West

The rail continues to be a significant advantage. Some races came apart a little bit, but for the most part you needed to be inside for at least a sizable portion of the race to be at all successful.

Friday, February 6

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Cloudy
Temperature: 28
Wind: 5 to 15 MPH West

While we saw some effective running from behind, as well as off the rail, the rail remains a strong advantage, as well as speed, which was also beneficial.

Thursday, February 5

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Clear
Temperature: 26
Wind: 5 to 15 MPH NW

The rail was a significant advantage. Along with that, it was hard to close, which gave speed an advantage. 

Wednesday, February 4

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Clear
Temperature: 30
Wind: 15 to 25 MPH NW

Speed did very well today, for the most part, but the last two races argued against that enough to cast some doubt on there being a strong bias. Given the cold temperatures, it's possible kickback was an issue, which would hinder closers, and thus perhaps make speed look like an advantage. Worth following, but the best guess is closers were, at least, at a bit of a disadvantage.

Friday, January 23

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Cloudy
Temperature: 37
Wind: 15 to 25 MPH West

The track played fairly.

Thursday, January 22

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Clear
Temperature: 46
Wind: 15 to 25 MPH West

The rail was good, but no advantage, as the track played fairly.

Sunday, January 18

Track Condition: Muddy ( sealed )
Weather: Cloudy
Temperature: 33
Wind: 10 to 20 MPH North

Mix of successful running styles, with speed and closers doing well, though there may have been an advantage to being forward. Likely the rail was not the best place to be as most of the successful running was done towards the middle of the track.

Saturday, January 17

Track Condition: Fast ( 1 ); Good ( 2-4 )
Weather: Snowing
Temperature: 34
Wind: 10 to 20 MPH SW

The races were cancelled after four races after some minor snow, which stopped minutes after the cancellation, and it appeared the track played fairly. Forward horses did well, save the 2nd race, where the winner came from well back.

Friday, January 16

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Cloudy
Temperature: 30
Wind: 15 to 25 MPH West

The track played fairly and the rail was fine.

Thursday, January 15

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Clear
Temperature: 37
Wind: 15 to 25 MPH West

The rail continues to be dead with most of the effective running being done well out into the track.

Sunday, January 11

Track Condition: Muddy ( sealed )
Weather: Cloudy
Temperature: 45
Wind: 15 to 25 MPH NW to West

Seemed like the rail continued to be off but later in the card that seemed in question. Not clear. Perhaps the track changed as the day wore on. Not many horses stayed inside so might be worth following.

Saturday, January 10

Track Condition: Fast ( 1-6 ); Good ( sealed ) 7-9
Weather: Cloudy with Showers mid-card
Temperature: 44
Wind: 15 to 25 MPH East

The rail continued to be dead and did not appear to change after the track was sealed.

Friday, January 9

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Cloudy
Temperature: 46
Wind: 15 to 25 MPH South

The rail was dead today. A significant disadvantage.

Sunday, January 4

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Clear
Temperature: 33
Wind: 10 to 20 MPH NW

The track played fairly with a mix of successful running styles.

Saturday, January 3

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Cloudy
Temperature: 30
Wind: 10 to 20 MPH West

The track played fairly, with a variety of different running styles proving effective, as race dynamics played the biggest role in the outcomes. Much fairer than 1/2.

Friday, January 2

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Cloudy
Temperature: 29
Wind: 15 to 25 MPH West

The was a strong bias towards speed, and possibly the rail, on today's track. Worth following going forward. 

Thursday, January 1

Track Condition: Fast
Weather: Clear
Temperature: 26
Wind: 15 to 25 MPH NW

It wasn't a gold rail, as we saw horses run well making outside moves, but there is an argument that the rail was good. How much of an advantage is hard to guage. Might be worth following.

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