TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs. Have a question about a specific feature in TimeformUS? Ask DRF ai.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 3

Trinity River (#11) figures to be a clear favorite here after the scratch of his main rival. He showed some talent chasing home stakes winner George Briggs and stakes-placed Sounds Like a Plan last year before going to the dirt. If he can build on those prior turf races, he's a major player here. But you would expect these types to improve as 3-year-olds, so it's even more strange to see him coming back for a tag. I think there are two bigger prices you want to consider. I tried Pretrial Statement (#4) last time when he returned to turf making his second start off a layoff for new trainer Lisa Bartkowski. He got very keen early in the race as Jose Lezcano tried to get him to settle in the pocket. It looked like he still had run coming into the stretch, but got completely blocked in traffic when attempting to sneak through along the inside. He still has upside on turf, but this might be a tougher spot than this last race. My top pick is Salt Spartan (#2), who returns to the barn of David Donk after a summer trip to Finger Lakes. I know he looks too slow based on his prior dirt races, but his pedigree is strongly geared towards turf. Classic Empire is a decent influence, getting 10% turf route winners, but the dam's side is strongly geared towards grass. She was a stakes-placed 2-time turf winner, and she's produced 3 turf winners. This gelding looks like he should handle it, and he figures to get somewhat ignored here.

Fair Value:
#2 SALT SPARTAN, at 10-1 or greater
#4 PRETRIAL STATEMENT, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 4

Lachaise (#11) looks like the horse to beat as he ships in, making his second start off a long layoff, and second start for Saffie Joseph. This New York-bred ridgling showed talent early in his career, winning his debut here and finishing third in the Grade 2 Pilgrim. He failed to develop as a 3-year-old, and then spent so much time on the sidelines. Yet he ran pretty well returning for the new barn last time at Colonial. He was 3-wide throughout, never having cover, and still stayed on well to just miss. This might be a tougher spot, and he didn't draw well, but he's dangerous with any progression. Hands of Time (#7) is the other horse with back class, looking like he might develop into a stakes type when he was unveiled last year as a 2-year-old. That never really panned out, and now he drops off a series of disappointing efforts. He was facing much tougher last time, but I still didn't like the way he threw in the towel, which has been a theme for him this season. I'm intrigued by a couple of prices. One of those is Desperate Proposal (#5), who has been pretty unlucky in two of his last three starts. He got a wild trip at Aqueduct back in May, veering out at the start and then encountering traffic in the running. Then last time he raced wide throughout when a bit keen with the blinkers. His race between those two efforts was good. He did get a solid pace setup, but still came with a strong late rally. My top pick is Global Prosperity (#4), who stretches back out in distances after sprinting on turf in his last few starts. I'm not sure if he actually improved turning back, or if he's just progressed as a racehorse this summer, since it's not as if he showed immediate improving going shorter at Churchill in June. Looking back at this prior route traces from this winter, he ran better than it appears. He faced some very tough rivals like Souper Times, Candytown, and Dublin's Knight and was hardly disgraced against those horses. It helps to draw inside going a mile on the inner turf, and Jena Antonucci has had a strong meet.

Fair Value:
#4 GLOBAL PROSPERITY, at 7-1 or greater
#5 DESPERATE PROPOSAL, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 7

Between the two Chad Brown runners who figure to take money, I'm mildly against Meursault (#10), who gets stuck leaving from the widest post out of the Wilson Chute. She has improved since stretching out to this one-mile distance, but she got very good trips in both prior starts at Aqueduct, and she may not be able to get the same forward position from this post. I much prefer Chad Brown's other runner Fully Subscribed (#3), who looked so promising when she made her career debut last October. She seemed like the kind of filly who might go on to stakes last fall, but she subsequently spent time on the sidelines. She's been training well for her return, and is drawn well for this configuration. There isn't that much speed signed on in this race, and she should get forward position. Walk With Me (#8) is another potential speed as she steps up in class. She hasn't run quite fast enough to beat a field at this level, but she does seem like a horse that is finally figuring things out and has a chance to outrun her odds. Points Is Points (#4) ran poorly last time, but she got very rank in the early stages and had a right to need that start off the layoff. I'm skeptical she'll ever get back to that speed figure she was assigned two back, but she does figure to be more effective here. My top pick is Next On Stage (#7), who stretches back out in distance for Ray Handal. She ran very well two back when able to control the pace up front going 7 furlongs before proving no match for the subsequently Grade 1-placed Ragtime. I'm not sure what happened in her last start, but she was always outrun and just never had an opportunity to save any ground. She figures to get a more aggressive ride from Kendrick Carmouche here, and she's proven in the past that she may be a little better going this distance.

Fair Value:
#7 NEXT ON STAGE, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 8

I don't have anything against Curlin's Angel (#9) other than the fact that she doesn't possess much early speed. Based on form, she is clearly the horse to beat. Her debut win up here in June was excellent, as she maintained her speed impressively through the late stages to draw away. Then last time she had to settle for third but might have been an unlucky loser. She didn't get much pace ahead of her, was off slowly, and had to steady mildly on the far turn before finishing well. She's supposed to be tough here with a similar effort, and it looks like there's a little more early speed signed on this time. Louise Proctor (#8) improved on her U.S. debut when finishing second at this level last time. The race just didn't come up quite as fast as those of the favorite, and she also had every chance to run down the leader after working out a good trip. My top pick is the other Chad Brown runner Scarlett's Halo (#1). She has never won on turf, but she's bred to handle it, out of a dam who was a turf specialist. It looked like she was just out of a test drive on debut at Gulfstream, and she showed a little more second time out at Aqueduct, though even that day she got a pretty tentative ride and lost ground on the turns. It looked like she mentally put it together last time on the dirt, showing improved speed and drawing clear late. She's drawn well inside this time, and I believe she still has upside on the turf.

Fair Value:
#1 SCARLETT'S HALO, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 9

All of the two-year-olds in this Grade 1 Hopeful field come into the race with something to prove. That includes potential favorite Buetane (#5), who ships in from California for trainer Bob Baffert. I'm not sure what this colt was beating in that debut victory, since Baffert has such a monopoly on the top juveniles out west and his only main rival was his own stablemate. Yet that barnmate did come back to win, validating Buetane's 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He has worked well since then, and will be a handful if he progresses at all. With so many of these horses stretching out in distance, it's not surprising that the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. It often helps to have an outside post with these inexperienced horses vying for early position, allowing the jockeys to keep them out of the kickback. That was the case for Ted Noffey (#8) when he made his debut. He broke from the far outside post that day, and wore down the leaders en route to a convincing victory. John Velazquez should look to pull a similar trip here, but he will have to run a little faster in his second start. Solder N Diplomat (#6) is another who showed the ability to rate just off the pace in his debut. I wanted to see him finish a bit stronger at the end, but he has a right to progress in his second start. I'm most interested in the other Asmussen runner Romeo (#3), who makes his first start since he was purchased for $1.7 million at auction by new owners. This horse has so far run his best races from the front end, but he should also benefit from having more foundation than anyone else in this field. He clearly failed to show up in the Tremont two back, but his connections had the confidence to wheel him right back in the Bashford Manor later that month. He came through with an excellent effort, setting an honest early pace and finding another gear to pull away late. He strikes me as one who shouldn't have any problems with added ground, and I really like the way he's been training since coming into the Steve Asmussen barn.

Fair Value:
#3 ROMEO, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 10

Some pace came out of this race with the late scratch of Mi Bago, and that doesn't help Asbury Park (#1). He made an eye-catching late run to break his maiden on Belmont Stakes weekend, earning a strong 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He went favored against allowance company last time on the strength of that performance, but was never seriously involved. Perhaps the firm going didn't agree with him, since his first two starts were run over turf courses that had taken significant rain. He is a slightly built colt who looks like the type that would excel over less than firm courses. The turf is back to being pretty hard, and I wonder if it's going to suit him. Another horse who would benefit from some pace is Monmouth shipper Versus (#10). He didn't get an ideal trip two back in the Tale of the Cat when stuck behind a wall of horses in upper stretch before angling out belatedly. I do question his overall ability, but he should be picking up pieces as he gets a positive rider switch to Jose Ortiz. Stars and Strides (#3) was a horse you probably wanted to have last time when he first got on the turf and was dismissed at 9-1. He did run well to win that race, sitting relatively close to a pace that fell apart. He would have won more easily than the final margin, but cost himself some momentum when lugging inward in upper stretch. He clearly has some talent and could be effective right back in this spot. After scratches, I decided to change around my picks. Leon Blue (#6) is an underrated New York-bred who actually fits pretty well against this open company stakes field. He showed talent as a 2-year-old, and has really taken his game to the next level this season. He was very unlucky to lose his return to turf in June when he set a very fast pace for the distance and just got nailed on the wire by a deep closer. He proved that effort was no fluke last time when he gamely fended off Smooth Breeze in the late stages of the Rick Violette. He also showed a new dimension that day, rating just off the pace, and Chistopher Elliott figures to use those same tactics here. I would certainly think Smooth Breeze is a contender against this field if he had been entered here, and this gelding will almost surely be a better price as he steps up.

Fair Value:
#6 LEON BLUE, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 11

I didn't see to much wagering appeal among the favorites in this meet finale. Twolatebabydoll (#3) got bet off the board last time making her NYRA debut for trainer Al Stall. She got a pretty good trip, all things considered, and had her shot in mid-stretch before getting run down by closers late. The slight cutback to a mile should suit her, but she's not going to be much of a price now that her form is exposed. Say Yes to Dreams (#5) exits that same race where she made a run through traffic to get up for fourth. It was her first start in nearly a year so she had a right to need that run off the layoff. Yet this barn does very well in this situation, as I'll demonstrate below, so I'm not sure how much improvement we can expect. Cleopatra's Key (#6) is one alternative to consider as she gets back on turf for Bill Mott. She chased an honest pace on debut while racing wide. She showed progression on dirt last time and is supposed to appreciate going back to turf here. My top pick is the other Chad Brown runner Every Vote Counts (#9), who is a bit of a wild card. She only made one start as a 2-year-old sprinting, and just seemed very green. She took some awkward strides approaching the quarter pole, and just looked like she was running on stop and starts. While her pedigree is geared towards going shorter, she looked like the type that would be better suited to a flat mile than sprinting. Furthermore, Chad has great numbers with horses like this. He is 10 for 25 (40%, $3.16 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs in maiden special weight turf routes over the last 5 years.

Fair Value:
#9 EVERY VOTE COUNTS, at 5-1 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs. Have a question about a specific feature in TimeformUS? Ask DRF ai.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 2

There is plenty of guesswork to be done in this NY-bred maiden turf sprint. I do think both horses with experience in the main body of the field have a chance. Funny Factor (#10) ran on well for fourth in his debut against a pretty tough field for the level. He got further experience on dirt last time, and should have gained some fitness for this return to turf. Daisy Doo (#1) finished behind AE entrant Chummers (#11) last time out, and both have a chance if they each get to participate. I would slightly prefer Daisy Doo, who had a right to need the debut and drew better towards the inside. Yet there are plenty of first time starters to consider and a few of them do appear to be working well. Mr. Bres (#4) is likely to take money for Chad Brown, but he is just 6 for 51 (12%, $1.34 ROI) with first time starters in turf sprints over 5 years. This son of Slumber may want to go longer than this, but I do like his workouts. My top pick is Story of Rory (#9). Ron Moquett obviously has his own poor stats with horses like this, in turf races generally, and at Saratoga. I just think this gelding trains like he has some talent. I don't mind the progeny of Honest Mischief getting on turf, and he's produced from a very turf-oriented Juddmonte female family. His dam was second in both turf starts, but there's grass going back through the generations, as this is the female family of Group 1 winner Special Duty.

Fair Value:
#9 STORY OF RORY, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 3

This allowance race out of the Wilson Chute is pretty competitive. My general feeling here is that I don't want potential favorite Echo Again (#2), who has always been better sprinting and got a very good trip when he was second at this level earlier in the month. I slightly prefer Dilger (#5) out of that Aug. 2 race, since he was contesting the pace before fading. He had a right to need that start off a layoff, and does have prior route form that suggests this distance won't be a problem. Yet I thought there were others to consider from different directions. Between the halves of the entry, I'm more interested in Top Gun Rocket (#1), who has been in great form since the claim by Peter Synnefias. He lost his winning streak when he stepped up to this level last time, but he actually ran an excellent race. He did save ground, but spent much of his journey in traffic before shooting through along the rail when finally clear late. He should appreciate turning back to a mile. My top pick is Crushed It (#7), who should be the best price of those I'm considering. This gelding's form has been a little inconsistent over the last year, but he has run some races that make him highly competitive here. His top speed figure was earned at Delta Downs, but he's run well over other circuits in the past. He got run off his feet going 6 furlongs two back, and actually rebounded with a strong effort last time. He was chasing a fast pace going this distance at Churchill and had a right to tire late. Now he's making his first start off the claim for Linda Rice, who notably does not drop in class as she has with many of these Churchill acquisitions. There isn't that much early speed in this race, and he figures to get an aggressive ride from Kendrick Carmouche.

Fair Value:
#7 CRUSHED IT, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 5

The Jockey Club Gold Cup has the potential to be the best race run so far this year. Both favorites merit plenty of respect. Mindframe (#4) might be the top older horse in the country right now with a pair of Grade 1 victories under his belt. The fact that he won those races at contrasting distances of seven furlongs and 1 1/8 miles makes the achievement even more impressive. He's also beaten today's main rival Sierra Leone both times they've met. Mindframe has two major questions to answer as he seeks to win his third Grade 1. How will the presence of other speed in this race affect him, and can he effectively stretch out to 1 1/4 miles? I'm less concerned about the pace, since he proved in May that he can rate behind horses and still produce a top effort. The distance is of slightly greater concern to me based on the visual of last year's Belmont Stakes, but he does have the physical frame of a horse who shouldn't be limited by stamina. There are obviously no stamina concerns with Sierra Leone (#3) and the possibility exists that he may actually improve on his winning effort in the Whitney as he gets back out to 1 1/4 miles. That's a scary proposition for this field. He did benefit from a strong pace setup in the Whitney, aided by his rabbit, but he still unleashed a powerful turn of foot at the quarter pole to put that race away. He has really matured since the middle of last season, and seems far more professional late in his races. This race is supposed to feature enough pace for him, especially given the presence of speedster Phileas Fogg. Sierra Leone is squarely the one to beat. The horse I want to bet in here is Highland Falls (#2), who will be attempting to win the Jockey Club Gold Cup for the second year in a row. This year's field has obviously drawn a far stronger group than the one he defeated last season. However, there is some evidence that Highland Falls has improved since last year. He got in a perfect prep when he returned in June, setting him up to deliver the best effort of his career in the Whitney. That 126 TimeformUS Speed Figure is one point higher than the number he got winning last year's Gold Cup. He arguably ran just as well as Sierra Leone, racing closer to a pace that came apart and making an early move to challenge on the far turn before responding to the winner's late bid. He's another who should relish stretching back out to 10 furlongs, and he figures to be a fair price.

Fair Value:
#2 HIGHLAND FALLS, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 6

I have respect for the class of Virgin Colada (#10), who has simply been facing better competition at the graded stakes level for much of her career. She actually ran pretty well off the layoff in the Memories of Silver behind the highly talented Laurelin, but I thought her last race in the Belmont Oaks was pretty disappointing. She got pace to close into, and couldn't muster any sort of rally. She's now dropping down to a softer level, but her lack of early speed is a concern. I'm also not sure that the 9-furlong distance suits her as well as shorter trips. There also isn't that much early speed in here, so it's going to be interesting to see who gets a more aggressive ride than their PPs suggest. I don't think that's really an option for this favorite, who just lacks positional speed. Cliffs (#1) feels like a candidate to go forward from her inside post. She was a grinding maiden winner last time, but she had run better than it looks in her prior turf start when going wide on the turns over a rail-biased course. She can continue progressing here over a distance that should suit her. My top pick is Sol d'Oro (#8), who makes her second start off a layoff for Miguel Clement. This filly had shown talent over the winter at Gulfstream, winning her debut in stylish fashion as she sliced through the pack in the final eighth of a mile. She then caught a slow pace in her next start and got a wide trip two back. She landed in a good spot off the layoff last time, and she came into the stretch seemingly full of run. Yet she could never quite get clear in the lane, as Joel Rosario just had to sit on her through the late stages, blocked behind a wall of horses. She's another who needs some pace, but I do think she's a candidate to improve at a price.

Fair Value:
#8 SOL D'ORO, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 7

This oversubscribed maiden race seems pretty wide open. Horses with experience obviously merit some respect, and Lovely Christina (#8) ran the best race of those with a start under their belts. She chased home the highly impressive debut winner Carmel Coast and was well clear of the rest of her competition. A repeat of that 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure should be good enough to win this race if there aren't any talented first time starters, but obviously that remains to be seen. All About You (#4) also chased home an impressive winner on debut, and Ken McPeek's horses do tend to improve second time out. She has to get a little faster, but she is also a contender. There are a slew of intriguing first time starters to consider. I'll focus on a couple of them. Karma Cat (#11) goes out for Whit Beckman, who has pretty strong statistics with his debut runners in dirt sprints. She looked pretty fast in her 21-flat drill at OBS June, and she's bred to be precocious as a daughter of Practical Joke. Her dam was better on turf, but it is a good sign that this filly has attracted Irad Ortiz for her unveiling. The firster I most want bet is Just Tell Anne (#6), who goes out for Ray Handal, an underrated debut trainer. This filly has looked good in the glimpses I've gotten of her workouts, and that Aug. 9 sub-49 clocking is very fast for a gate work over the training track where gate works tend to play significantly slower. In her most recent drill she held her own against the stakes-placed My Sherrona, who is an excellent work horse. She was scratched from a maiden race last weekend, but comes right back in this spot and attracts Flavien Prat.

Fair Value:
#7 JUST TELL ANNE, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 8

I'm not way against Tap Into This (#7), who ran very well to finally break his maiden last time out. You just have to wonder if he can put wins back to back given the number of times that he disappointed at short prices prior to breaking his maiden. He also seemed to respond well to a turnback in distance last time, so it's not clear that getting back out to a mile will necessarily benefit him. He's the horse to beat, but there are others worth considering. Pass the Hat (#8) ran a nice race in his return from a two-year layoff earlier in the meet. He did catch a sloppy track and was able to get to the front end without much pressure, but he still earned a strong speed figure. He worked well into that race, and appears to be doing well out of it. The other Bill Mott trainee Burning Glory (#4) returns from a layoff in this spot, but he certainly has upside as a 3-year-old who kept some good company, including when third in the Holy Bull behind Burnham Square and Tappan Street. I didn't like that he was clearly outworked by the NY-bred filly Scythian in his last drill, but he may still be gaining fitness. My top pick is Protective (#6), who makes his first start since a trainer switch to Joe Sharp. This horse obviously showed some talent early on even though it took him 7 starts to break his maiden. He placed in the Wood Memorial and Peter Pan, and actually ran well in both of those races. He wasn't even disgraced in the Belmont Stakes when encountering some traffic in upper stretch. His form since his maiden victory has obviously been poor, but he was overmatched in a Pennsylvania Derby that was dominated on the front end, and his last two races were on turf. He's clearly a better dirt horse, and now he's returning to that surface off a layoff. He appears to be training very well for this first start out of Joe Sharp's barn, and there should be ample pace in here to set up his late run.

Fair Value:
#6 PROTECTIVE, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 9

This is another 2-year-old maiden race where you can make cases for a lot of horses. The most appealing of the experienced runners is Section (#8), who didn't do much running in his debut in July. I don't love progeny of Upstart getting on turf, but his female family is full of turf influences, and he looks like a horse who should appreciate the surface switch. The rest that I want are all first time starters. Tacticality (#10) could go off favored for Chad Brown, and he appears to be pretty live in this spot. Essential Quality hasn't had a turf winner yet, but I've noticed plenty of connections running their progeny of this sire on turf. The dam earned all 4 career victories on turf, and Chad Brown is pretty good at spotting horses on the right surface. He's working well, and would be no surprise for these connections. The firster I want to bet is Omaha Storm (#5). Omaha Beach is a 13% turf route sire who gets 16% juvenile debut winners. There is also a ton of turf on the dam's side. The dam is a full-sister to Grade 1 turf winner Time and Motion from a very strong Phillips Racing family. Mark Hennig obviously isn't known for debut success on turf, but he appears to have some two-year-olds with talent this year. I really liked this colt's turf drill video, and he gets a live rider in Kendrick Carmouche for this unveiling.

Fair Value:
#5 OMAHA STORM, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 13

The second half of this mammoth Sunday card is far less appealing to me than the first half, and the late Pick-5 sequence offers little of interest to me from a wagering standpoint. Yet this conditioned claimer does look like a pretty wide open spot where you can take a shot with a price. It's pretty easy to poke holes in the favorites, if you can even figure out who the short prices will be. Carolina Smokeshow (#7) makes a certain amount of sense, but she was pretty disappointing on the class drop last time when her prior connections dumped her. Dan Ward has done well off the claim, and I like her turning back in distance. She fits here even if she doesn't quite recapture her best form. Kyle's Mom (#5) beat a weak field to break her maiden at Aqueduct, but she did it impressively. She may not need to improve much on that performance to factor here. I just wanted to find a price in a race like this, and the one that I can make a mild case for is Flatter Fanatic (#6). This horse obviously didn’t run well in her lone local start last time, but that came against a tougher field over a sloppy track that she clearly didn't handle. She broke slowly and could never get into position thereafter. Her Gulfstream form prior to that was actually decent. She faced a much better field on debut than you usually see at that level, and she came back with a solid victory where she set a fast pace. She's dropping to the right level and shouldn't take much money for low-profile connections.

Fair Value:
#6 FLATTER FANATIC, at 6-1 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs. Have a question about a specific feature in TimeformUS? Ask DRF ai.

PLAYS

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.

RACE 2
#10 TIME TO ROLL, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 3
#4 TEN CENT TOWN, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 4
#1 FINAL VERDICT, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 8
#10 GRITTINESS, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 9
#10 SOLOSHOT, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 10
#2 AMBER CASCADE, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 11
#6 SINA, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 13
#10 WITHOUT CAUTION, at 6-1 or greater
#6 RAMBLIN' WRECK, at 6-1 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs. Have a question about a specific feature in TimeformUS? Ask DRF ai.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 2

Steer Clear (#2) will obviously be a handful if her connections decide to run here rather than in Saturday's G1 Spinaway. She ran very well to be second behind the promising Ornellaia on debut. The pace was fast and she hung on best among those who were involved early. She has trained well out of that first start, but I do wonder if she's the type who will continue to get better with more ground, since it's a little more obvious that some others in this field will benefit from added distance. I have similar questions about Immaculate Moon (#5), who exits the same race, but she's another who was involved in that quick pace and hung around pretty well at the end. Though she is by McKinzie, she looks like a filly who is suited to sprinting right now. The good news for her is that Danny Gargan is 7 for 19 (37%, $3.25 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters on dirt over 5 years. Academia (#4) seems like an appealing alternative as she exits another live race where she was third behind likely Spinaway favorite Tommy Jo. She was wide on the turn and stayed on well, and obviously has the pedigree to move forward here. I just preferred another at a bigger price. Fancy Footwork (#1) didn't face as tough a field on debut, but she ran like a horse who needs more distance than the 6 furlongs she got to work with that day. She actually broke decently, but got steadied back at the start and was always far back thereafter. She did start to make up ground through the lane, but had too much to do. She has trained well out of that start, and should really benefit from this stretch-out to 7 furlongs where stamina starts to come into play.

Fair Value:
#1 FANCY FOOTWORK, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 3

Program Trading (#2) is obviously the best horse in this race when he's at his peak, but I don't want to settle for a very short price on him as he returns from such a long layoff. While Chad Brown does have strong layoff statistics in general, he is just 5 for 35 (14%, $1.19 ROI) off a 240+ day layoff in turf route stakes over 5 years. I've gotten mixed signals from this horse's workouts for the return. I think it's prudent to take a wait and see approach with him, especially given how strong this field came up for such a small group. There appears to be a fair amount of pace in here, so I wonder what kind of trip Donegal Momentum (#5) will get. His last race is obviously a throw-out given the stumble, but he got such a perfect trip controlling the pace when he won the Poker, and he's unlikely to get that journey here. My top pick is General Jim (#4), who obviously has to improve if he's going to beat a field of this quality. Yet I do think there's some evidence that he's sitting on the upswing. This horse showed talent early in his career and has obviously struggled with inconsistency over the past few seasons as his connections have tried to figure out which surface he prefers. I do think concentrating on turf makes sense at this point, and he proved his affinity for the surface when he returned to it last time. He did get a ground-saving trip in that allowance race, but still did well to close into a slow pace that was dominated up front. He once had the ability to hang with these horses, and he's reportedly been working well for this third start off the layoff.

Fair Value:
#4 GENERAL JIM, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 7

One half of this Wesley Ward entry has to scratch with John Velazquez named on both of them, so it's very possible that the highly regarded Schwarzenegger (#1A) will draw in if Wesley Ward wants him in this race. There's been buzz about this colt all summer long, and he still hasn't made his debut despite being entered on several occasions. He's worked well and appears to have ability. However, Wesley Ward is winless with 2-year-old first time starters in Saratoga turf sprints over the last 5 years, so I'm not keen to take a short price on this horse. There are some other intriguing first time starters to consider here, I'll take a small shot against him. Green Screen (#10) has plenty of pedigree for these conditions, by good turf influence Oscar Performance out of a dam who was a stakes winner on turf. Graham Motion can win with 2-year-old first time starters in turf sprints, and this horse looked like he should be well suited to these conditions in the two workout videos I've seen. Both were just maintenance drills, as he apparently did most of his serious preparation at Fair Hill. He was entered to make his debut here a couple of weeks ago, and I like that Motion has kept him in Saratoga since then to ensure that he gets a chance to debut here.

Fair Value:
#10 GREEN SCREEN, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 9

Baby Yoda (#5) will be racing for a tag here for the first time since he was privately acquired by these connections back in 2021 after the first two starts of his career. It's not like this is some concerning drop, as he's priced at $100k and is now a 7-year-old who hasn't been competitive in his last few stakes attempts. He dropped to this level, competing for the allowance condition, two starts back in June and delivered a performance that will probably beat this field. However, consistency has never been this horse's greatest asset, so I don't really want to take too short a price on him. He's best when he can be forwardly placed, but there is some other speed in here. El Grande O (#1) is difficult to assess as he returns from a layoff for Linda Rice. He did run well off a similar break last October before his form tailed off into the winter. This is a realistic spot for him, but he will have to work out a trip from the inside post, and Dylan Davis has to avoid getting shuffled back. The horse I don't really want is Discreet Mischief (#3), who ran poorly last time and may be heading in the wrong direction. I haven't loved the visual of his recent workouts. My top pick is Light Man (#6), who makes his third start off a layoff. He ran well to finish third after chasing Baby Yoda off the bench in June, and he showed some minor progression last time when again settling for third against a very tough field in the John Morrissey. He has the speed to be forward and is drawn perfectly outside of all the other pace horses. He always shows up with a competitive effort, and he rarely gets the respect he deserves at the windows.

Fair Value:
#6 LIGHT MAN, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 11

This Perfect Sting goes through morning line favorite Dynamic Pricing (#5), a formidable presence as a Grade 1 winner dropping into a listed stakes. That top-level victory came in the Just a Game on Belmont Stakes weekend, a time when Saratoga's turf courses had taken on a significant amount of moisture. She has run some of her best races over yielding turf and seemed to relish the boggy going as she fended off highly regarded stablemate Excellent Truth. That rival turned the tables in the Diana, as Dynamic Pricing put in a dull effort. I do have some concern that she's better with more give in the ground, but even a repeat of this spring's Beaugay performance over firm turf may be good enough to beat this field. The horse that many will consider as the chief rival for this favorite is Proctor Street (#6), who steps back up into stakes company off a career-best effort here in late July. She got a perfect trip en route to that allowance score but displayed an impressive turn of foot to swoop past the field in upper stretch. The only downside is that her form is now exposed, and she could get overbet with Irad Ortiz Jr. retaining the winning mount. My top pick is Les Reys (#7), who makes her second start off a layoff for Miguel Clement. This filly actually defeated both of today's main rivals, Dynamic Pricing and Proctor Street, when she won the Winter Memories in her U.S. debut last year. She wasn't quite as effective when she ran back at Keeneland and then was put away for the winter. She made her belated return in a division of the De La Rose on the opening week of this meet. While she had to settle for fourth in a blanket finish, the pace of that race didn't suit her style and she was attempting to rally through traffic in the lane. She should be tighter with that start under her belt and the pace should suit her much better this time, especially if this field holds together after scratches.

Fair Value:
#7 LES REYS, at 5-1 or greater