TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

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View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

The Sunday opener only drew a field of six, but there appears to be some talent in this two-turn maiden affair. Chillax (#3) should go favored after finishing second in his two prior starts. He clearly improved when stretched out in distance in Kentucky this spring, but he got pretty good trips in both of those starts. He saved ground at Keeneland two back, then last time he stalked outside before ranging up menacingly at the quarter pole. However, he was never able to get by the front-runner. That's now twice in a row that he's flattened out after looking like a potential winner in mid-stretch, so it's fair to wonder if some extra distance will suit him. Classicist (#4) returns from a long layoff for Todd Pletcher after showing promise as a 2-year-old. He looks like one who is cut out for two turns, but this is a demanding distance for a horse coming off such a long layoff. Secured Lender (#5) is the Chad Brown representative in here, as he stretches back out around two turns, doing so on dirt for the first time. He made a wide move before flattening out going shorter last time, but I don't love the way he finishes off his races. Kavanaugh (#6) didn't do much running on turf last time, but he ran well when he tried this distance on dirt two back. He got steadied approaching the half-mile pole and did well to regain his momentum to get up for second. His trainer, John Ortiz, has had plenty of success at recent Saratoga meets. My top pick is Sturdy (#1), who finished behind likely favorite Chillax when they met at Churchill last time. However, Sturdy didn't receive an ideal trip that day, getting buried inside on a day when that probably wasn't the best place on the racetrack. He got mildly shuffled back in upper stretch and could never recover while always glued to the rail. He ran a better race two back in a tougher spot for the level at Aqueduct. The key for him may be stretching back out to nine furlongs, since his only prior attempt at this distance was the best effort of his career, a narrow defeat behind future stakes horses Corporate Power and Batten Down, for which he earned a 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He gets a rider switch to Manny Franco and may have an opportunity to attain better forward position from this inside post.

Fair Value:
#1 STURDY, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 3

I'm not going to make some big push for my crazy selection in this maiden claimer. I just couldn't possibly bet the favorites at short prices. Adventurist (#6) put in a decent effort in his debut, but he was terrible next time out at Gulfstream and just looks like a horse that hasn't developed for Todd Pletcher. This barn has had success with dropdowns like this, especially going long at Saratoga. He's just going to be an awfully short price given the lack of other options. The other horse who figures to take money is Article (#7) making his second start off the claim for Linda Rice. She picked him up out of his debut, which was a poor effort. He did face a tougher field at Churchill last time, and had trouble during the race, steadying at the start and then getting rank. I just wish he has shown something after the trouble, and Linda might just be dropping him here because she made a bad claim. My top pick is Daytona Moonshine (#5). I know his form looks terrible, but this does strike me as a horse that wants to run all day. He actually ran better than it looks in each of her first few starts, taking a long time to warm to the task but finishing with good energy across the wire. He obviously hasn't continued to develop since getting claimed, but he didn't run that badly with some trouble in March, and was finishing with some interest against a better field than this last time. In a race where the favorites seem totally untrustworthy, I'll try my luck with this longshot.

Fair Value:
#5 DAYTONA MOONSHINE, at 10-1 or greater

RACE 4

Most of the horses in this field were meant for turf, so it's hard to have too much confidence in any of them showing up on the dirt. Scarlett's Halo (#8) could take money, but she's out of a dam who was much more of a turf horse and was targeted at turf races early in her career even though she's a Practical Joke. She has trained reasonably well on the dirt, but she has no early speed and that doesn't really fit the profile of these one-mile Wilson Chute races. Cleopatra's Key (#5) is a little more interesting to me getting on the dirt, since she actually has decent dirt breeding on the dam's side. She also possesses tactical speed to be forward in a race with a pretty murky pace scenario. Sugar Run (#4) is another who could be forwardly placed if she runs back to her debut on the turf. However, she lost all of her early speed on the dirt last time. She did have some trouble at the start before running on late, but it was still surprising to see her so disengaged early. The lone MTO entrants Yankee Doodle (#14) obviously has upside in the second start of her career. She was very green on debut before staying on at the end and galloping out well. I don't want to be too hard on her for failing to make up ground since the pace was so slow. She's bred to go longer, but I don't love the outside post from the Wilson Chute. My top pick is Ratu Jawa (#9). If a horse with form like this was in a barn that actually won races at this meet, she would be vying for favoritism in this spot. Her two prior dirt races are arguably better than any dirt race by her rivals. She was extremely wide on debut at Gulfstream and still ran on through the wire. She clearly didn't care for turf at all, but she got back on dirt last time against a field that was significantly tougher than this one, and held her own. She again traveled wide, but wasn't beaten that far by a few fillies who would be odds-on in a spot like this. She also gets a significant rider upgrade to Ricardo Santana. At the expected price, she's worth a shot.

Fair Value:
#9 RATU JAWA, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 9

Governor Sam (#2) was a very good two-year-old, reeling off three consecutive stakes victories heading into the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. He was stepping up against a pretty tough international field, and he arguably ran the best race of all, contesting an honest pace that fell apart before fading to third. If he were to improve upon that form with routine progression as a 3-year-old, he would almost surely beat this field. However, it's unclear if he's taken that step forward based on his two starts this season. I suppose the layoff was his excuse in the William Walker, but he still got a pretty good trip on top of a moderate pace and couldn't seal the deal. I won't be too hard on him for losing on the dirt last time, but now there are still some questions about whether he still has an edge over his rivals as a 3-year-old. There is also other speed in this race to keep him honest up front. Grayscale (#3) will be involved in the pace if he handles turf, and Supersonic Blue (#5) should have a lot more early speed than he displayed last time if he breaks cleanly. I'm going to take a shot against this favorite with a horse who came close to beating him last year. Jet Sweep Joe (#1) only finished a neck behind Governor Sam when they met in the Tyro at Monmouth, just getting outdueled through the stretch. His form since then has been up and down, but he did run well in a turf sprint going this distance at Saratoga last summer before tailing off at the end of the season. He didn't get a particularly good ride when he returned in the William Walker to commence this campaign, but he progressed with a better trip two back in the Paradise Creek. They then tried something new last time at Woodbine, taking him off a hot early pace. That 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the highest last-out number in this field. He seemed to adapt pretty well to the new tactics, finishing strongly to beat some seasoned older rivals, so they figure to use the same style again this time. I also like this rider switch to Ben Curtis, who is an upgrade from many of the jockeys who have ridden him in the past.

Fair Value:
#1 JET SWEEP JOE, at 5-1 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.

RACE 4
#7 LOST IN ROME, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 10
#8 RUNNINSONOFAGUN, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 11
#2 CHOISYA, at 7-2 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 9

With this race coming off the turf, the focus shifts to the quartet of MTO entrants. Whittington Park (#13) is likely to take money on the basis of his victory at this level two back. He did get a strong pace ahead of him that day, something he may not receive here. He was more forwardly placed in a smaller field off-the-turf affair at this configuration last time, and lacked that same late punch. He's obviously a major player, but I didn't want to settle for a short price on him. I'm also mildly against Mighty Atlas (#14), who makes his first start off the claim for a barn that doesn't win much at this meet. If I'm going to take a trainer who concentrates more on Aqueduct, I'd rather upgrade a horse like Rock the Weekend (#12), who runs well over wet tracks and put forth an effort two back that gives him a real chance in a spot like this. My top pick is Get a Job (#11), who ships back to New York for Steve Asmussen. This horse broke his maiden over this track and distance last year and followed that up with some nice efforts at Aqueduct, earning a set of speed figure that make him one of the horses to beat. He obviously tailed off against open company at Oaklawn, but I don't want to be too hard on him for those races. He has since been freshened, and he got in a good prep going shorter at Lone Star last time. He probably would have won that race if he hadn't gotten bottled up in traffic until mid-stretch. He also possesses some of the best tactical speed in the race, which is effective going this distance.

Fair Value:
#11 GET A JOB, at 5-2 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 2

Devil in Disguise (#7) will obviously beat this field if he runs back to his most recent turf sprint effort at Keeneland. He was racing a much tougher first-level allowance field that day and ran pretty well to just miss, beating next-out winner Creditworthy. The drop in for a $50k tag off a career-best performance is a little puzzling, but perhaps these connections that like to win at Saratoga are just putting him in a spot where he looks to be a likely winner. On the other hand, he is a horse that's been tough to keep on the racetrack, and he's had some time off since that last race, so it's fair to wonder if he can hold that form. He is going to be an awfully short price, especially with Flavien Prat aboard, so I'll take a shot against him. My top pick is Korrongo (#5), who has run a couple of nice turf sprints downstate at Belmont since getting claimed by Pat Reynolds. Coincidentally, he wound up chasing the fleet Java Buzz in both of those efforts, last September and then again on June 27. He couldn't keep pace with that foe last fall, but still ran a respectable race. Then last time, making his second start off a layoff, he outdueled Java Buzz while chasing outside only to get swallowed up by closers late. I think turning back to 5 1/2 furlongs should work for him, but I don't love that he's drawn outside of the other speed, especially with the rails going to 0 feet on the Mellon.

Fair Value:
#5 KORRONGO, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 5

This looks like the more contentious division of the split De La Rose. Heredia (#4) is the lukewarm favorite on my morning line, and I do view her as the horse to beat. She got a very good trip when she made her belated U.S. debut in the Beaugay, saving ground early and displaying a nice turn of foot to lead in mid-stretch before tiring. She didn't run as well as the winner Dynamic Pricing, who got a much wider trip, but that rival returned to win a Grade 1 in her next start. Heredia had a right to need that race after spending so much time on the sidelines, but her form from the end of 2023 would make her almost impossible to beat. She was a Group 3 winner overseas who was Group 1 placed behind two of the top older females in Europe at the time. She now just has to prove on the track that she's ready to step forward second off the layoff. I'm not as keen on some others who could be short prices in here. Deep Satin (#3) didn't appear to have a major excuse last time in the Mint Julep. That probably was a tougher spot than this one, but I was hoping to see more of a step forward from her seasonal debut. In Our Time (#8) ran some races at Gulfstream over the winter that would make her competitive here, but the nature of that Gulfstream turf course played to her strengths. She didn't get the right trip last time, but she figures to make the front here with her main pace rival scratching. Alluring Angel (#1) has generally shown up with good efforts despite being unable to put races back to back and switching barns every few starts. Bill Mott has been on a strong run lately, but he is just 1 for 32 with trainer switches on turf over 5 years. My top pick is Les Reys (#2), who returns from a layoff to launch her 4-year-old campaign. Her debut in this country was visually impressive, as she rallied strongly through the final quarter mile of the Winter Memories to beat a good field, which included Dynamic Pricing. She was a little disappointing when she came back in the Valley View after that, but she was placed closer to the pace and that seemed to detract from her late kick in a race that was dominated towards the front. I really like the way she's been training for her return, and she's now reunited with Joel Rosario, who rode her so well two back.

Fair Value:
#2 LES REYS, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 7

The horses who figure to attract most of the support in this 1 1/8-mile maiden event are those exiting the second race on June 6 of Belmont Stakes week. Endorse (#2) was the beaten 4-5 favorite in that spot. She displayed good early speed and took over at the quarter pole like she was on her way to victory. Yet she hit a wall in the stretch, fading to third behind impressive winner Ragtime. Her early speed should be especially dangerous from an inside post going 1 1/8 miles on this main track, but I'm a little concerned about added distance for her. Even though she's by Curlin, her female family leans more towards sprints. Two fillies who finished well behind Endorse in that June 6 race merit serious consideration. Resurge (#6) took some money to be 6-1 in her debut, but ran like a horse who badly needed the experience. She was off slowly and then rushed up on the backstretch before encountering traffic on the turn. She rallied mildly in upper stretch, but then lost momentum between horses late. She's bred to go longer as a daughter of multiple Grade 1 winning router Close Hatches, making her a half-sister to top dirt horses like Tacitus, Scylla, and Batten Down. The only negative is that Bill Mott has poor statistics stretching out maidens like this. Chad Brown has excellent stats with that same move, going 31 for 93 (33%, $2.00 ROI) with maiden second time starters going from sprints to routes on dirt over the last 5 years. Lost Horizon (#5) didn't encounter as much adversity as Resurge in that debut race, but she was staying on well at the end. She's another one who is bred to stretch out, out of Breeders' Cup Distaff runner-up Wow Cat, and she physically looks like a filly who should relish added ground. My top pick is the more experienced Lobby Rendezvous (#1). This filly ran slower speed figures over the winter at Oaklawn, but she did not get ideal trips in either race there, going wide on the turns each time. She was given some time off, and returned last time at Churchill, adding blinkers and Lasix. She ran a vastly improved race despite getting a terrible trip. She broke a step slowly, then got rank with the blinkers, pulling her rider forward into a premature move. Most horses would quit after that, but she stayed on admirably to finish second with a competitive 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure. I believe she has further upside second off the layoff, and she now draws well while getting a jockey upgrade to Jose Ortiz.

Fair Value:
#1 LOBBY RENDEZVOUS, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 8

I don't have a big argument against Movin' On Up (#4), who appears to be a deserving favorite in what looks like the weaker division of the two halves of the De La Rose. This 4-year-old came into very good form over the winter at Gulfstream, taking advantage of ideal trips in that March allowance win and the Sand Springs two weeks later. She's since finished third in two graded stakes attempts, but she held her form well each time against fields that are tougher than the one she meets here. She has continued to get favorable trips in those races, only encountering a brief moment of traffic in the stretch last time that hardly affected the outcome. She should get another good trip drawing post 4 here, and her tactical speed makes her dangerous. The course did play to speed and rail positions last week, and it may not be so different here with the rails only moving out 9 feet on the inner turf. I don't like her main rival Ozara (#1), who has generally beaten up on weaker competition when she's been successful. She got a better trip than her stablemate when she won two back at Gulfstream, and last time she did lose some ground on the turn, but still lacked finish through the stretch. She often leaves me wanting a little more from her, and that's not the kind of horse I'll endorse at a short price. Fun With Flags (#5) is a little more interesting to me after finally showing some signs of her old self last time at Monmouth. She had to wait in traffic at the quarter pole and was finishing best when she got clear too late. I would just be more willing to take her if she wasn't going out for Chad Brown and Flavien Prat. She still has plenty to prove at this level, and the connections will drag down the price. My top pick is Charlottesapproval (#7), who will be stepping up against stakes company for the first time in her career. She obviously turned into a different horse when she finally got on turf last year, and I like all of her races on that surface. She was best in defeat two back at Woodbine going this distance, getting stuck 3-wide on the turns. She only got a 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her sprint return at Woodbine last month, but that was a visually impressive effort, where she closed into a slow pace to sail past the field under minimal urging. I don't think we've yet seen the best she has to offer, and Mark Casse seems primed to make a splash at the start of another Saratoga meet.

Fair Value:
#7 CHARLOTTESAPPROVAL, at 7-2 or greater