TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs. Have a question about a specific feature in TimeformUS? Ask DRF ai.

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View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 3

Waralo (#5) has to be considered the horse to beat after winning his first two starts on turf. The 112 and 115 TimeformUS Speed Figures that he earned for those victories make him the fastest horse in this race, even as he steps up in class to face open company for the first time. In addition to the class hike, he also is attempting to turn back to 5 1/2 furlongs in a race that features a few horses that look a little faster in the early going. One of those is recent maiden winner Innate (#2), who did win going this distance last month. He was returning from a lengthy layoff in that spot, and was clearly ready to fire or a barn that usually has them ready to run their best off the bench. He was 20-1 that day and will be a fraction of that price here, but his early speed nevertheless makes him a contender. Tap to Mischief (#4) is another who returned from a long layoff recently, staying in an off the turf race in June, eleven months after his debut victory. He probably wasn't running on his preferred surface, but he still put in a good effort to be third at this level. He showed ability in that lone turf start last year, and his stalking style should ensure that he works out a good trip sitting just behind the speed. Among the short prices, he's the one that I want to use most prominently. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that Great Lilo (#3) can make the lead, and I'll be interested to see if this horse's dirt speed finally translates to the turf. He's my top pick at what should be a generous price because I think he's run better than it appears in both prior turf starts. He wasn't yet the horse he's now become when he first tried this surface last year, and his one turf start this season was a solid fourth-place finish going 5 furlongs at Gulfstream. Those races feature exceptionally fast paces, and he was mildly shuffled back in the early stages. Yet I liked the way he sustained his strides through the stretch, making up ground in the final furlong, something we have never seen form him on dirt. He's bred to be a turf horse, out of a dam who was a turf sprint specialist. If he is able to outbreak this field, I think he'll prove tough to catch.

Fair Value:
#3 GREAT LILO, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 4

None of the runners in this 2-year-old maiden field have raced on turf, but a few do have experience in dirt races, and those are the horses I prefer. Final Score (#5) is the second time starter who figures to attract the most attention after finishing second on debut when he was rained off the grass. He has plenty of turf pedigree, by good influence Not This Time. There isn't immediate turf production from his dam, but his second dam was a Grade 2 winner on grass. The only knock is that Todd Pletcher is just 1 for 39 (3%, $1.04 ROI) with maiden second time starters going from dirt sprints to turf routes over 5 years. I prefer a couple of others who were rained off the grass in that July 13 sprint. Heeere's Johnny (#3) ran like a horse who needs more ground to be effective. He was outrun early, racing a bit greenly as he dropped back along the inside on the backstretch. Yet he found his stride when angled into the clear on the far turn and sustained his momentum late. He is a full-brother to recent Grade 1 Saratoga Derby winner World Beater, so added distance should suit him. My top pick is Golden Rule (#1), who ran far worse than the two aforementioned contenders in that July 13 race. However, his pedigree indicates that dirt is the wrong surface for him, and I would assume the connections just kept him in that spot to get some race experience under his belt. Goldencents is a deceptively strong turf sire, getting 13% turf route winners and 10% first time turf winners. Notably the dam's side pedigree is all turf, with his dam producing turf stakes winner Crown Imperial and turf stakes-placed Reining Flowers. He drew well and gets a rider upgrade to Joel Rosario.

Fair Value:
#1 GOLDEN RULE, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 6

Spirit of the Law (#12) is obviously the horse to beat as he drops in for a tag for the first time. However, he was done no favors at the post position draw, getting mired in the outermost slot. He's also coming off a disappointing performance, regressing from his turf debut in June. He didn't get the best trip last time, altering course in the lane, and no one was getting close to that runaway winner. I just still have some questions about his current form as he drops down. Arch's Assault (#5) has run pretty well at big prices in both turf attempts at the maiden special weight level. He's another dropping for the first time. I wish he had shown a better turf of foot in any of his prior races, as he tends to be pretty one-paced. He's still a contender with Prat climbing aboard. My top pick at a much bigger price is Pretrial Statement (#1), who gets back on turf for Lisa Bartkowski. This gelding made his debut on grass last fall against a much tougher field than this. Winner Jack and Jim went on to win a stakes against open company, and Leon Blue is a subsequent stakes winner against New York-breds. He was off for a long time after that, but he got in a prep sprinting last time, actually showing some late interest on dirt. He's bred to be much more of a turf horse, and he's getting a rider upgrade to Jose Lezcano for this return to his preferred surface.

Fair Value:
#1 PRETRIAL STATEMENT, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 7

I'm not way against likely favorite My Two Sophia's (#3), but she was supposed to get the job done last time when she first dropped down to this level. She got rolling in the stretch and just hung in the late stages as the winner sneaked up the rail. They're putting blinkers back on this time, in hopes of getting her to finish better, and she also gets a rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz. Yet that's also going to ensure a shorter price. There isn't much speed signed on, so I think that makes Dashing Della (#5) worth a second look. Her recent form looks poor at first glance, but she was sent hard and beaten to the lead last time before fading, and her prior effort was on turf. Gary Contessa claimed her out of that last race and gave her a blowout last week to sharpen her speed for this start. She could be dangerous if she gets left alone up front. My top pick is Valentine Gift (#9), who is getting class relief that she needs. She ran into the improving Despo's Dream two back and last time was facing tougher allowance foes. She's never raced this cheaply before, and the class relief makes me less concerned about her modest speed figures. She is also putting blinkers back on, and getting a rider switch to Ricardo Santana, so I'm hopeful that she'll be more forwardly placed than her form suggests. Horses like this can be aided by an outside draw, which allows them to find their stride in the clear.

Fair Value:
#9 VALENTINE GIFT, 7-2 or greater

RACE 8

When I first handicapped this race, I thought Conman (#8) looked like an imposing favorite. Yet the more I analyzed this field, the less I liked this Mark Casse runner. He improved markedly at Woodbine late in his 3-year-old season, but he didn't look like the same horse when he returned to New York last spring. He was facing a tougher field when he came back from another layoff at Gulfstream this year, but I still didn't think he did much running in that spot. He's getting class relief, but I don't need him at a short price. I actually think a former Casse runner is more interesting. Coinage (#5) has obviously been off form since getting claimed away from that barn by Steve Asmussen. However, I believe he's been running on the wrong surface. Aside from that one outlier dirt win at Aqueduct last year, none of his other dirt performances are very good. He's much more of a turf horse, and he has gotten very few attempts to route on turf in the last two years, even though that's what he prefers. He's a wild card, but I like that Asmussen steps him up in class at this meet, and the price should be fair. My top pick is American Grant (#3), who will try to win his second race in a row after finally clearing his N1X allowance condition. This is usually a big step up, but I don't think this race came up that tough for the level, especially with questions surrounding so many of the main contenders. He's a horse who always had talent but struggled to find the right trip last year, often taking himself out of races early. Yet it feels like the light bulb has finally switched on this season. He ran well off the layoff in May with a wide trip, and then showed a new dimension last time. He actually was engaged early, placing himself much closer to an honest pace. He still produced a strong finish from that position. More distance works for him, so I love him stretching out to 9 furlongs. Bruce Brown's barn has been live lately, and Ricardo Santana clearly gets along with this horse.

Fair Value:
#3 AMERICAN GRANT, at 6-1 or greater
#5 COINAGE, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 9

I acknowledge that Governor Sam (#9) is the most likely winner of this Mahony, but I do think this race came up tougher than the Quick Call he won last month. I did like that he showed the ability to rate off horses and finish strongly in that recent victory, and that new dimension will make him especially tough here. However, he's going to be an extremely short price coming off that fast win, and I think there are some new faces that could pose problems for him. One of those is Spiced Up (#4), who clearly relished the switch to turf when he came off a layoff last time. He was beating a weaker field than this, but I liked the way he finished off that race after chasing an honest pace. He still has plenty to prove at this level, but there's upside with him. My top pick is first time turfer Ancient World (#7). It's been foolish to dismiss anything Joe Sharp sends out at this meet, and he has had success with these types. He's 3 for 11 ($5.35 ROI) with horses trying turf for the first time at Saratoga over 5 years. This gelding also has some pedigree, being by Into Mischief, who wins with a strong 13% of his first time turfers. He runs like a horse who travels well and then flattens out late on the dirt, and those types often appreciate the switch to grass. He has worked well on the turf up here, and may get overlooked given the presence of the heavy favorite.

Fair Value:
#7 ANCIENT WORLD, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 10

This first-level allowance finale is arguably the best race of the day. There is talent and class in this field, led by graded stakes-placed runners Tuscan Gold (#1) and Pandagate (#6). The former did get in a prep for this last time at Aqueduct, but I was hoping to see him run better against a softer field. A mile is probably too short for him, but I still have some concerns about whether he can recapture that form we saw from him in the Louisiana Derby over a year ago. Pandagate is an even bigger question mark as he returns from a layoff. He was extremely disappointing when last seen in September. The distance is no problem for him, but I prefer others with more recent form. Classicist (#2) might be a more deserving favorite. I just think there are two other options to consider at bigger prices. The crazy longshot that I want to use is Turn and Count (#10). I know he looks way too slow on paper, but I believe this horse is better than his form indicates. He's been a work in progress for Carlos Martin, getting very unlucky when stymied in traffic all through the stretch in his second start. He won next time out despite racing greenly, and then had no chance to close into a slow pace behind Tip Top Thomas last time. I have thought all along that he would blossom when stretched out around two turns. He's getting that chance here in a pretty tough spot, but I do think he can outrun his odds. My top pick is Interceptor (#3), who drew much better for this distance. He's stepping up off a $100k maiden claiming win, but that was a pretty solid field for the level. The trip obviously worked out for him, but I still give him credit for winning that race since I don't think he's best at a one-turn mile. This horse got a terrible trip from an impossible post position two back at Keeneland, so his overall form is better than it might appear. He's worked well since that last race, and I like the step up in class by Chad Brown. In a race with so many options, he figures to get somewhat overlooked, even for this barn.

Fair Value:
#3 INTERCEPTOR, at 4-1 or greater
#10 TURN AND COUNT, at 10-1 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs. Have a question about a specific feature in TimeformUS? Ask DRF ai.

PLAYS

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.

RACE 1
#2 YO BANANA BOY, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 4
#6 BE OF COURAGE, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 6
#4 STONE COUNTY, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 7
#5 ITSALLCOMINTOGETHA, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 8
#3 MAXIMUS MERIDIUS, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 9
#6 LAURELIN, at 7-5 or greater

RACE 10
#1 EL CORDOBES, at 3-1 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs. Have a question about a specific feature in TimeformUS? Ask DRF ai.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

There's plenty of guesswork to be done in this opener, an auction-restricted maiden for 2-year-olds. My general feeling is that I didn't want to default to short prices in this race. Neigh Baby (#7) will take money by default, going out for excellent debut trainer Jeremiah Englehart. This horse has some decent workouts, but he's been a little green and doesn't exactly give me the vibe that he's ready to win first time out. Napoleon Solo (#2) has some flashy workout times on the way into his debut, and I generally like the progeny of Liam's Map even though he doesn't have the best stats with first time starters. This one is out of a dam who was best on turf, and he looks like one that may want more ground or a surface change down the line. World Wide Web (#4) and Max Money (#3) are the two that come in with experience. I prefer the former shipping in from Monmouth after closing steadily into third on debut. He's a big horse that seemingly wants farther than 5 furlongs, so he should be better suited to this spot. My top pick is a firster who may get dismissed at a better price. Running On Bourbon (#1) goes out for Jamie Begg, who has gotten off to a hot start at this Saratoga meet. Begg isn't known for debut success, but he has sent out a winner and a second-place finisher from 3 debuting juveniles so far this year. Bourbon Courage is a deceptively strong 14% juvenile debut sire. The siblings haven't shown much ability, but I did like this horse's gallop at the Fasig-Tipton sale, as he just looked like a very fluid mover. He's worked well since then, including a very fast gate work over the Oklahoma dirt, which typically yields much slower times than gate drills on the main oval.

Fair Value:
#1 RUNNING ON BOURBON, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 5

This race could be significantly affected by scratches if either Diliello (#11) or Cristobal (#12) draws in off the AE list. They finished second and third, respectively in a fast maiden race for the level behind impressive winner Spirit of New York earlier in the meet. I mildly would prefer Cristobal if both got in, since he was chasing a fast pace and raced a bit greenly on debut. Yet both would clearly be contenders in this spot. In the main body of the field, a couple of first time starters could take money. Truman's Commander (#7) has been working well for Mark Casse, though that barn doesn't always have them cranked up for their best efforts on debut. Moonlight Drive (#10) is the younger half-brother to multiple turf stakes winner Moonage Daydream, and he's actually been the work partner of that older sister. He hasn't quite been a match for her in the mornings, but the fact that he's been given experience against a stakes-quality older partner could be meaningful. Jorge Abreu can certainly win with these types. My top pick is Lawyer Mason (#2), who makes the second start of his career after participated in an auction-restricted maiden on debut. That race didn't get much of a speed figure, but I still thought this horse put in a solid effort. He was getting a good trip in behind the leaders early before getting shuffled back at the quarter pole. Most 2-year-old who lose momentum at that point in the race go backwards, but he did well to alter course and rally up the rail late. This Tom Morley runner figures to move forward second time out. A couple of horses have already returned from that race to run significantly faster in subsequent starts, and I suspect it was a stronger race than the speed figures indicate.

Fair Value:
#2 LAWYER MASON, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 7

I wasn't exactly thrilled with the favorites in this first division of a split one-mile maiden. Salamis (#2) appears to be the horse to beat as he returns from another brief layoff for Chad Brown. He's always been cut out to be a nice horse, out of the Grade 1-winning turf dam Antonoe, making him a half-sister to turf stakes winner Segesta. I've just been a little underwhelmed with both turf starts. He did get a wide trip at Keeneland last time, but I wanted to see him finish a bit stronger. That has proven to be a solid race, with runner-up World Beater going on to Grade 1 success, but that horse has improved a lot since the spring. I do prefer Salamis to other short prices like Apalta (#1) and Blast Furnace (#8). The former makes his turf debut with some pedigree, but he's going to take money merely because he ran well on dirt. Blast Furnace improved getting back on turf last time, but this is a tougher spot. Perretti (#3) intrigues me more at a square price. The Phil Antonacci barn has already sent out some live runners at the meet, and I prefer his horses when they're returning from layoffs, since they're generally well prepared. This gelding ran well in both turf starts last year, and is exiting a race that may have been far stronger than it looked at the time. That key race included future stakes winners Beach Gold and Corruption, as well as allowance winners Enlighten and Ciao Chuck. My top pick is first time turfer Disclaimer (#5), who faded after chasing the pace in his dirt debut at Keeneland last year. He still earned a respectable 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure for a 2-year-old, so he has some ability. This horse's pedigree for grass may not be so obvious, but he definitely looks like a turf horse. Uncle Mo son Caracaro has actually had some success with turf progeny. I also really like this colt's workouts for the return, especially that July 18 breeze when he was best in company over the Oklahoma turf. Plus, John Terranova is 6 for 19 (32%, $2.45 ROI) with maidens coming off 180+ day layoffs over 5 years.

Fair Value:
#5 DISCLAIMER, at 5-1 or greater
#3 PERRETTI, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 8

With Be Your Best (#1) expected to scratch from the Ballston Spa in favor of Saturday's Beverly D. at Colonial, this becomes a much more wide open handicapping affair. The winners of both divisions of the De La Rose are stepping back up in class in this spot. Deep Satin (#9) has been popular with the bettors through her career, and was hammered down to favoritism in that De La Rose victory. She did well to sprint for home in a race that turned into a quarter-mile dash to the finish, but she had gotten a very good trip prior to that. Now she's drawn in a tough outside post, and stretching out an extra sixteenth. Ozara (#3) also got a good trip in her De La Rose win, saving ground on the turns before tipping out. I've never been this filly's biggest fan, but she has clearly improved as a 4-year-old. She drew well again and has to be considered a contender. Chad Brown has had a stranglehold on this race in past years, and while his two runners this year don't look quite as formidable as past entrants, they're both contenders. Maggie Go (#6) was all the rage when she made her U.S. debut in the Eatontown at Monmouth, but she was a little one-paced late after stalking the pace. She has a right to move forward second off the layoff, but the same applies to her winning stablemate. Whiskey Decision (#2) did work out a fantastic trip en route to her Eatontown score, but she also showed some encouraging signs before making that rail run to victory. She had been a filly who got very rank in the early stages of her races last year, and became almost impossible for her riders to control as she went off form in the second half of the season. Yet last time in her first start for Chad Brown, she settled much better, and showed willingness to come through inside of horses. That was a big mental step forward for a filly who has always had the talent to win races like this. She's worked well since then, drew well inside, and may be a fair price again with Manny Franco up.

Fair Value:
#2 WHISKEY DECISION, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 10

This finale, the second division of that split maiden from the 7th, might be the toughest race on the entire Friday card. All of the contenders in this one-mile maiden turf event have major questions to answer. That includes possible favorite Johny's Rendezvous (#3), who has steadily improved since returning as a gelding for his 3-year-old season. He earned a field-best 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his narrow defeat last time out at Ellis Park, and a repeat of that performance will make him tough here. However, he does have a tendency to get keen early in his races, and he sometimes struggles to finish. He has to work out a trip under Javier Castellano, who is just 1 for 38 at the meet coming into this week. Fellow Kentucky shipper Maki Monarchy (#6) got in a local start last time, cutting back to 5 1/2 furlongs. It seems like that might be a viable option for him since he started out his career sprinting, but he could never keep after getting bumped at the start. He ran well going this one-mile distance two back, and that's proven to be a solid race for the level. Yet contention runs deep in this race, and there are plenty of wild cards to consider. Favorable Scenario (#4) returns from a 909-day layoff to make his second career start. He has some turf pedigree going back to his second generation female family, but it's hard to trust a horse who has been away for this long, even going out for Chad Brown. Wicked Improbable (#8) ran like a horse that would benefit from his debut experience last month, racing greenly in the early stages before making a wide move into contention. He just needs some pace to develop. My top pick is a horse who will be trying this distance for the first time. Snare (#1) exits that same July 16 sprint race as Maki Monarchy, but he fared much better, riding the rail to a third-place finish. While his trip generally worked out, I liked the way he lengthened his stride through the lane, closing into third in a race dominated up front. He's been improving since returning from a layoff this summer, and I like that he's now stretching out after getting some sprint foundation underneath him. He's always been bred to go this far, by 16% turf route sire Vekoma out of Keri Belle, who was a Grade 3 winner over a mile. He strikes me as one who needs more ground, and he should be a square price for these low-percentage connections.

Fair Value:
#1 SNARE, at 9-2 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs. Have a question about a specific feature in TimeformUS? Ask DRF ai.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 7

It's always a concern that connections will balk when races like this come up so competitive, and unfortuantely four horses have been scratched from the original field. Importantly, all four had early speed, which totally changes the expected pace scenario. I still think Love Cervere (#11) is the horse to beat, but she no longer figures to get such an advantageous setup. She has won all three of her starts in one-turn sprints, including two stakes in her last couple of starts. She rallied from far back in the Take the A Train, but showed better tactical speed last time. That versatility should give Joel Rosario some options, especially after scratches. The other intriguing closer is Abientot (#12), but she got a perfect pace setup last time and still couldn't get the job done in the Coronation Cup. This is a tougher spot, and one that no longer may set up as well for her. George Weaver has entered four fillies for the turf, plus one MTO, in this Galway, so he certainly has his bases covered. Silsbee (#5) was impressive in her turf debut, but she beat a much weaker field of New York-breds. Laurice (#10) arguably ran better than Abientot in the Coronation Cup considering the pace and ground loss. She may be rounding back into form. The one of those that I prefer among the Weaver quartet is Regalton (#2), who just broke her maiden here 18 days ago. She had shown some promise on debut, rallying for second behind today's rival Luna Louska on synthetic. Yet both of them have since proven to be better turf horses, and Regalton showed some nice versatility breaking her maiden over this course and distance last time. She broke on top, but then was rated off the pace before being produced outside to produce a strong stretch kick. That 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure suggests she belongs at this level, and she may not get the respect she deserves in such a competitive field with so many options.

Fair Value:
#2 REGALTON, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 9

States' Rights (#1) has been seen much during his 3-year-old campaign, but it's not for lack of entering. This horse has been rained off the turf at least a couple of times, affected by the rescheduling of the Penn Mile earlier this summer. It's still a little disconcerting to see him returning from nearly 4 months on the sidelines, but he is coming off a race that he probably should have won. That Keeneland allowance loss was not Jose Ortiz's finest ride, as he elected to try to weave his way through traffic in upper stretch and encountering nothing but trouble in the last eighth of a mile. That was a race where the pace came apart, and he has been a horse who is at his best when he gets a setup. It's unclear how quickly they'll go here, but does still have some upside as a relatively lightly raced horse. Valuation Metric (#7) is a stakes winner form his 2-year-old season, but he's still eligible for this first-level allowance since that was also his maiden victory. He obviously has to get faster, but he has room for improvement in his 3-year-old debut. My top pick at a much bigger price is Landing Craft (#3). I don’t' see that much early speed in this field, and I think Kendrick Carmouche is going to hustle this colt right to the front end from an inside draw, as that first turn comes up quickly. The switch to turf is the big question for him, but Omaha Beach is a good influence, getting a solid 13% winners form his first time turfers. His dam was best on synthetic, but she has produced 2 turf winners. This horse has always looked to me like one that would just skip over the grass, and I think new trainer Amelia Green has found an ideal spot for him to try it.

Fair Value:
#3 LANDING CRAFT, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 10

I don't really need any part of likely favorite Princess Summer (#8), who has already had her chances to break through this level at short prices. She had a much better trip than the winner two back, and last time she saved ground early before launching a wide run on the far turn. I think there are more interesting options here that make this a tougher spot than her last couple of races. One of those is Alittlebitnaughty (#5), who ran some races last year when in the barn of Danny Gargan that would make her tough to beat. She obviously tailed off competing against open company this winter and sprint, but now she's returning to New York-breds and switching into the barn of Linda Rice. This drop in class makes her dangerous. Soho Nights (#7) was intended for turf last time, but still showed improvement when that race got rained off. She was staying on while hanging on her left lead late, appearing to relish the added distance. She has some turf pedigree, out of a dam who achieved both career victories on turf. My top pick is Inamorata (#6), who also makes her turf debut for Miguel Clement. The connections have been trying to get this filly into a turf race, and she's been rained off a couple of times, which explains the layoff. She was green on debut but ran on late, and last time showed some improved early speed before fading. While there isn't a ton of dam's side turf pedigree, she is by good grass influence More Than Ready. I also thought she handled turf quite well in a recent workout over the Oklahoma turf.

Fair Value:
#6 INAMORATA, at 4-1 or greater