Duplicate of Picks & Plays for Sunday, April 30

by David Aragona
 

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 2:   4 - 11 - 10 - 3
Race 3:   12 - 13 - 1
Race 4:   4 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 5:   9 - 10 - 11 - 2
Race 6:   1X - 8 - 9
Race 7:   6 - 4 - 1 - 7
Race 8:   3 - 7 - 2 - 4
Race 9:   2 - 6 - 5 - 1

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

 
RACE 3

With this race transferred to the dirt, it goes at 1 1/8 miles around two turns on the main track. That makes me very interested in Ocean Gateway (#12), who should want every bit of that added distance. This leggy daughter of Tonalist made a nice impression in her career debut. She just kept making progress from the back of the pack to run up into second behind a heavily bet winner. She wasn’t quite as effective last time, but that race was dominated on the front end and she never really had a chance to grind her way into the race. I expect her to fare much better on the stretch-out and prefer her to the other MTO Gifted (#13), who figures to take more money but might have some distance limitations.

Fair Value:
#12 OCEAN GATEWAY, at 6-5 or greater
 

RACE 8

I really don’t have a major problem with Today’s Flavor (#7), who appears to be a deserving favorite as he moves back into New York-bred company for this Affirmed Success. He put in a strong effort in the Grade 1 Carter last time, carving out some swift fractions and putting away his main pace rival before getting swallowed up by the closers in the last furlong. His 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure absolutely towers over this field, but it should be noted that number is so high due to a significant pace upgrade. This time the Pace Projector is predicting that he should be alone in front in a scenario favoring the early leader. He’s the most likely winner, but the price will be quite short. Some may look to Sheriff Bianco (#2) as the alternative, but he comes off a win against a softer field and just doesn’t look quite as sharp as he was earlier in the year. I would rather try to beat this favorite with Amundson (#3). I think it’s pretty interesting that Rob Atras has claimed back this 7-year-old for $62,500 and now steps him right up into a stakes event. Atras is 6 for 13 (46%, $3.05 ROI) first off the claim for owner Michael Dubb over the past 5 years. This horse ran one of the best races of his career the last time he was in the Rob Atras barn in October. He’s recently been in solid form for Linda Rice, showing some good versatility, coming from off the pace to win last time. He’s definitely not quick enough to make the front here, but I think Irad Ortiz will have him perched just off the leaders, ready to pounce.

Fair Value:
#3 AMUNDSON, at 7-2 or greater
 

RACE 9

This starter allowance figures to hold together pretty well, as a few runners in this field were scratched out of an off the turf race yesterday for this spot. Nolo Contesto (#1) is probably the one to beat as he takes another crack at this level for David Jacobson after closing for fourth last time. He probably wasn’t helped by getting steered down to the rail in the stretch that day, as the inside wasn’t the place to be. Yet he nevertheless ran his typical race that day, just picking up pieces. He’s generally a horse that tends to settle for minor awards. I’m also not sure you want closers out of that Apr. 15 affair, since the race was falling apart at the end. A difficult horse to assess is Always Charming (#5), since he looked like a completely different runner when he resurfaced earlier this month, showing speed that he had never before displayed en route to a decisive victory. He’ll be competitive here if he repeats that effort, but this feels like a much tougher spot. Big Venezuela (#6) may get somewhat ignored here after finishing sixth in a pair of races. Yet he didn’t get off to the best start two back, and last time ran better than the result indicates after setting an honest pace on turf. I expect him to rebound this time. My top pick is Mach One (#2). He’s another exiting that same turf race, and it would appear that grass just isn’t the right surface for him. He also got a bizarre ride, wrangled back early before getting very rank into the clubhouse turn. His prior dirt form for Eddie Persaud had been quite good, and he’s proven going this 7 furlong distance over a wet track. He has the tactical speed to work out a trip and should be a fair price for low profile connections.

Fair Value:
#2 MACH ONE, at 5-1 or greater
#6 BIG VENEZUELA, at 6-1 or greater