Picks & Plays for Saturday, April 22
by David Aragona
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PICKS
Race 1: 9 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 2: 2 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 3: 6 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 4: 8 - 6 - 12 - 1
Race 5: 2 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 6: 1 - 7 - 10 - 9
Race 7: 6 - 9 - 11 - 3
Race 8: 1 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 9: 1 - 4 - 8 - 3
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
I want to take a stand against Pimenova (#7), who does come into this race with the best turf speed figures. She did break slowly last time and was wide thereafter, but made no impact. I’m not sure that turning back in distance will suit her and she’s going to be a very short price. I also think there are other options to consider in this spot. Spoils of War (#2) ran some slower speed figures when she was competing last year, but she was a 2-year-old at that point. She finished up nicely when dropped in for a tag at the Meadowlands last year, and the winner of that race has returned to achieve improved speed figures in subsequent starts. Dance With Me Babe (#3) is another who has some upside returning from a layoff. She was never seriously involved in her debut last year, but that was a tougher spot than this and it’s not as if she was totally disgraced. Now she returns in a softer spot, adding blinkers and Lasix. My top pick is another lightly raced option. Pauciloquent (#9) has made two starts on dirt this winter and just hasn’t looked totally comfortable over that surface. I thought she stayed on well in her debut after getting a wide trip, thought she physically strode like one that might like the turf. She didn’t run as well last time, but that was a tougher maiden claiming event. There isn’t much turf pedigree on the dam’s side, but sire Frank Conversation was a good turf horse during his racing career.
Fair Value:
#9 PAUCILOQUENT, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 2
The Calumet Farm entry figures to be tough in this maiden event, since both have a strong chance. I prefer the Brad Cox trainee First Money (#1), who put in a nice effort on debut. He broke about a length slowly and had to rush up to take the lead before battling gamely when headed in the stretch. It was an encouraging first start and he figures to be dangerous showing speed again from the rail on the stretch-out. Entrymate Kaon (#1A) ran fine to just miss going this distance last time in a race that earned a solid speed figure. However, I thought some others had more upside, and he won’t be much price as part of this entry. I was interested in another horse that exits the March 25 maiden event. Huntington (#2)attracted some support in his debut, going off at a shorter price than First Money. He was slow into stride early but started to progress while racing wide down the backstretch. However, he seemed to take some awkward strides approaching the quarter pole, and it looked like Carmouche considered pulling him up before letting him stride out through the stretch. He’s bred to be a good one as a half-brother to Grade 1-placed dirt router Law Professor. Added distance should help, and blinkers may give him some added focus. I get the sense he might have more to offer than he showed on debut and the price figures to be fair.
Fair Value:
#2 HUNTINGTON, at 7-1 or greater
RACE 3
Chad Brown has entered a pair of runners in this Woodhaven. Belouni (#4) could attract some support off a decent speed figure for his U.S. debut last time at Gulfstream, but I didn’t think he did much running in that race. He got a pretty good trip and just lacked any finish through the lane. That was a tougher field than this so he’s getting class relief, but I’m somewhat skeptical of his overall ability. Inflation Nation (#5) could also take money as he returns from a layoff for Christophe Clement. Yet this barn’s runners often need a start in their returns, and I’m not totally convinced that this horse wants to stretch out. I much prefer Chad Brown’s other entrant Neural Network (#6). He’s shown some ability on dirt, winning his career debut in commanding fashion before taking down the Gander via disqualification last time. However, I think he’s one that might prove even better on grass. Cloud Computing has had some initial success as a turf sire, and there’s grass on the bottom side of this pedigree. Furthermore, Chad Brown is 8 for 33 (24%, $2.92 ROI) with non-maiden first time turfers in routes over the past 5 years.
Fair Value:
#6 NEURAL NETWORK, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 6
There’s plenty of guesswork to be done with horses trying turf for the first time in this $40k maiden claimer for New York-breds. Christophe Clement sends out a pair of runners, of which Myles (#9) could attract more support. This 4-year-old gelding didn’t do much running in his career debut, but that was on the dirt and he has much more of a turf pedigree. He’s by good grass influence Creative Cause and is out of a 3-time turf winning dam who produced nice turf runner Quiet Out East. I don’t expect him to be any kind of big price, but he’s a contender. I also think the horse drawn directly to his outside is a little interesting. October Bliss (#10) is by Destin, who hasn’t had any success as a turf sire just yet. However, there’s plenty of pedigree on the dam’s side. Second dam May Night was a multiple Grade 2 placed turf performer, and the dam is a half-sister to G2 Bowling Green winner Red Rifle. Another horse trying grass for the first time who seems like a candidate to improve over it is Volcker Rules (#7). David Donk has had success in races like this at Aqueduct over the years, and this colt has some pedigree deep in his female family that suggests turf inclination. His dam is by Data Link and is produced from the same family as good turf horses like Doswell and Secretary At War. My top pick is a horse who actually has some turf experience, though he didn’t make much of an impression in that lone grass start. No Regard (#1)was a little chilly on the board when he debuted last year and never really got involved after racing sluggishly in the early stages. Yet he gave off the vibes of one who might want more ground that day. He subsequently showed some affinity for going longer at this level on dirt in November before heading to the sidelines. Now he returns in a proper spot, routing on turf, while also going out as a new gelding. I find it encouraging that John Terranova gives the mount to Samy Camacho, with whom he has had success at Tampa.
Fair Value:
#1 NO REGARD, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 7
More Than Work (#9) is obviously the one to beat as he drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. He showed some promise on turf early in his career despite failing to win on that surface. He did break his maiden this past winter racing on synthetic at Turfway, and it’s not as if he was disgraced when he stepped up against winners for the first time. Yet he did finish off the board as the 7-5 favorite, and now he’s immediately dropping in for a tag in a spot where the connections are sure to lose him. Brad Cox is 28 for 118 (24%, $1.20 ROI) with non-maidens making their first starts for a tag over the past 5 years, suggesting that these types are often overbet. His main rival appears to be Splendid Summer (#3), but he also has some questions to answer as he returns from a lengthy layoff. He displayed steady improvement in his turf races last season, and put forth his best effort when last seen at Saratoga in the summer. Yet he missed the rest of the year, and now has to get back to that form off the layoff. I think there are a couple of interesting runners getting on turf for the first time. Legendary Lore (#11) has run his best races on synthetic, and the dam was best as a turf horse. He’s a half-brother to Hidden Facts, who was a nice turf horse. I think he can move up on this surface, but I am a little concerned about his poor recent form. My top pick is another first time turfer. Mauritius (#6) doesn’t have as much convincing turf pedigree as some others, but he is by good turf influence Twirling Candy. His recent form has gone in the wrong direction, but he showed some ability early in his career. When I watch him run, he moves like one that might be able to wake up on the turf, and he seems like the fastest of the potential speeds, which could give him an advantage. Furthemore, Tom Morley is 5 for 39 (13%, $4.78 ROI) with first time turfers, so he’s won with prices like this before.
Fair Value:
#6 MAURITIUS, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 8
Likely favorite Lifetime of Chance (#3) had developed a reputation as an underachiever over the winter, often settling for minor awards. Yet without warning, he put it all together last time, showing improved early speed before powering away from a decent field of maidens. His 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure is far better than anything his competitors have achieved, but now he has to prove that was no fluke. The connections have also made the unusual decision to transfer him away from the trainer who got him to produce that effort. Mark Casse does poorly off trainer switches, 14 for 130 (11%, $0.74 ROI) over the past 5 years. Between the favorites, I prefer General Banker (#4). This horse was an overachiever through the Derby trail in New York, picking up third in a few points races. Reality set in last time in the Wood Memorial, and now the connections are aiming a little lower, returning to a stallion series event. He was a smashing winner for this condition last December, winning off by over 8 lengths in the slop, and a repeat of that performance makes him dangerous here. Yet I’m interested in the horse they all have to catch. East Coast Girl (#1) took a few starts to figure things out at the start of his career. He got a very tentative ride on debut, handled like a horse who needed the race. He then blew the start next time, but still showed marked improvement. He finally put it all together two back with that 11-length triumph, and he showed that was no fluke last time with a game runner-up performance in a tougher starter allowance. He may have to improve again to beat this field, but he looks like the main speed from his rail draw. He picks up Jose Ortiz and should be a fair price.
Fair Value:
#1 EAST COAST GIRL, at 7-2 or greater
Picks & Plays for Friday, April 21
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 3 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 2: 4 - 1A/1 - 2 - 5
Race 3: 6 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 4: 4 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 5: 2 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 6: 2 - 3 - 8 - 1
Race 7: 8 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 8: 8 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 9: 1 - 7 - 2 - 9
FAIR VALUE PLAYS
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
I don’t want to default to the likely heavy favorite D Hopper (#6) in this opener. He crossed the wire first on debut before getting disqualified, and many will assume that he’s set up to get the official victory this time. Yet he was competing in an unusually weak race for the level, and only earned a mediocre speed figure that day. He might be capable of better in his second start, but I don’t need to support him to find out at a very short price. Chad Brown’s other runner Phelpsy (#5)didn’t show much in his two starts last year, but he might be capable of better off the layoff. I would just need a price on him, and runners from this barn can tend to be underlays. The first time starter Majestic Michael (#1) is a little interesting as he debuts for Tony Dutrow. This barn did win with some live firsters last year, and the horse has a nice pedigree, by Justify out of a dam who is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Awesome Maria. My top pick is Venge (#3). I want to give this well-bred son of Gun Runner one more chance after disappointing when he was last seen in January. Something may have gone awry that day, and he also just seemed uncomfortable rating between horses in the early stages. He showed some ability closing for third after a poor start on debut last year. He trained well for that race, and appears to again be working well for his return. I get the sense there’s more ability here and the price should be better this time.
Fair Value:
#3 VENGE, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 5
I don’t have a major problem with Spiked (#5), who seems like a deserving favorite in this spot. She crossed the wire first at this level going this distance in January, but was justifiably disqualified for interference. She tried a tougher race at this level last time going a one-turn mile and put in a decent effort to get up for fourth after briefly having to pause in upper stretch. She gets the distance and is the one to beat, and I do prefer her to the other expected short price Know It All Audrey (#3). I have some concerns about this filly getting the distance. She’s primarily competed against New York-breds, and has gotten very good trips when she’s been successful. I just don’t see any value with her. However, I am interested in a couple of other horses who finished behind Spiked that Feb. 24 race. Into Happiness (#6) was making up ground after lagging well behind early. A turf experiment didn’t work out last time, but I like her getting back on dirt, and the rider switch to Trevor McCarthy could be a positive one for her. Yet I’m most interested in Liam’s Kiss (#2) on the stretch-out. She got a very wide trip last time, legitimately traveling in the 4 to 5-path around the far turn. Her rider wasn’t aggressive early and then seemed to give up on her in the stretch. I think she’s better than that, and believe she can get a better trip under Jose Ortiz, who figures to send her forward from the inside draw. Based on pedigree and physical impression, I think the 9 furlongs will work for her.
Fair Value:
#2 LIAM'S KISS, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 6
Refuah (#8) is the horse to beat in this state-bred maiden, but he’s had more than his fair share of chances to break through at this level. He was beaten by a good horse last time in Olympic Dreams, and was flattered when that one came back to win his next start against tougher. Yet, despite breaking slowly, Refuah still ranged up like he might get the job done that day and just hung in the late stages. I want to explore other options, but fellow short price Rule Breaker (#4)won’t be among them. This $1 million auction purchase was sent off favored in the debut at Fair Grounds last month, but put in a disappointing effort. He came up empty in the lane, crossing the wire far behind the runaway winner. Brad Cox is 34 for 131 (26%, $1.39 ROI) with maiden second time starters in maiden special weight dirt routes over 5 years, so these types tend to get overbet. Among the second time starters, I’m more interested in I’m Just (#3). He was a bit sluggish through the early stages of his debut, dropping back to last on the backstretch. Yet he made steady progress while racing wide on the turn and stayed on decently finish less than two lengths out of second. That should have served as a good experience, and he seems like one that should have no problem stretching out to a mile. My top pick is another second time starter who figures to be a bigger price. Unaffected (#2) didn’t take much money in the debut, but showed decent early speed, chasing the pace down the backstretch before fading a bit in the late stages. Overall, it wasn’t a terrible effort and he has a right to be fitter in his second start. This son of Practical Joke has some good size to him and looks like one that might have more natural ability than that first result suggests. I don’t mind the rider switch to Katie Davis, who has been having some success at this meet, and this barn has been dangerous with some prices.
Fair Value:
#2 UNAFFECTED, at 9-1 or greater
#3 I'M JUST, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 7
After the scratch of Dontmesswithtess (#9) , Union Dolly (#1) will be a strong favorite here. She kept solid company when she ran in a starter allowance event back in January, getting a very good trip but just unable to see out the distance. I’ve always felt she was a bit cheaper than this, but this didn’t come up as the toughest race for the level. I’m interested in a couple of bigger prices, since I expect there to be some value elsewhere for those looking beyond the favorite. My top pick is Lady of Thoroton (#8). This filly had an inconsistent season last year, but she did put forth some good efforts at this level, including a solid third-place finish at Saratoga last summer. She also missed by just a length and a half the last time she routed on turf in October, despite getting rank in the early stages. And that has been a major issue for her, as she does tend to pull too much in the first half of her races. I’m hoping Katie Davis can get her more settled because she does have the ability to compete with this group when she runs a complete race. The other horse that I want to consider at a huge price is R Girl Faith (#5). She might look cheaper than these, but she moved up on turf when she switched to this surface last season. Since then, she’s gotten even better on dirt and is coming into this return to grass in the best form of her career. This might be too ambitious, but she’s one to throw into the mix at a gigantic price.
Fair Value:
#8 LADY OF THOROTON, at 4-1 or greater
#5 R GIRL FAITH, at 10-1 or greater
RACE 8
I didn’t want to default to likely favorite Stone Creator (#6) in this state-bred optional claimer. I think we saw the best she has to offer when she won off the layoff two back in February, where she got loose on the lead through soft fractions and rode a rail bias. She subsequently lost at this level last time despite getting another good trip, and I think she’s vulnerable again here. Among the logical alternatives are Sweet Mystery (#2) and Bavarian Creme (#1). The former is returning from a brief layoff and turning back in distance. She did show some ability early in her career and fits well at this level. Bavarian Creme has more recency, coming off a career-best performance at the N1X level last time. Yet she also has some things to prove against tougher while breaking from the rail. I want to go in a different direction with Thinking It Over (#8). She returned from a layoff at this level in March and put in a decent effort to get up for third after chasing a quick pace set by the talented Grannys Connection. This filly showed some talent last year, but seemed to hit a plateau over the summer. I thought her return as a 4-year-old represented a subtle step forward, and she may be capable of better second off the layoff. Ray Handal is having a typically strong meet and Katie Davis has ridden well.
Fair Value:
#8 THINKING IT OVER, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 9
I’ll be interested to see if the also eligible entrant Little Skippy (#11) draws into this affair. If he gets one defection and makes the race, he is one that figures to pull some support. He faced better company in both prior turf starts at Gulfstream and put in decent efforts on each occasion. However, he would be saddled with a disadvantageous post position and I think there are some other more interesting options in this field. In the main body of the field, Old Point (#6) could take some money on the switch to grass. However, he’s not the kind of first time turfer I want. He really doesn’t have that much pedigree for grass despite being out of a British-bred mare. It’s more of a dirt family overall, and he might just lack the speed to compete at this 6-furlong distance. Among the experienced options, I’d be more interested in Nieuwendyk (#7). He made just one start on turf in his career debut last summer, and didn’t run that badly. He contested a pace that came apart and stayed on pretty well for fifth. He has plenty of grass pedigree, and may be ready to put forth a better effort on this surface now that he’s had more experience and time to mature. My top pick is Father of Lies (#1), who is another horse trying grass for the first time. I find it encouraging that this horse showed good speed on debut before fading on the dirt, so he should be able to get forward position from this rail draw as he switches over to turf. Daredevil’s progeny have won 19% of their turf sprint starts. The dam was a synthetic specialist and she has produced a 3-time turf sprint winner. This horse moves like one that should take to this surface, and I think it’s encouraging that Javier Castellano takes the mount for a trainer who often names live riders on his live horses.
Fair Value:
#1 FATHER OF LIES, at 7-2 or greater