Aqueduct TimeformUS Race Analysis

Picks & Plays for Thursday, November 14

by David Aragona

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PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 2:   10 - 6 - 5 - 8
Race 3:   7 - 3 - 1
Race 4:   12 - 8 - 10 - 4
Race 5:   6 - 1 - 9 - 4
Race 6:   10 - 4 - 3 - 7
Race 7:   6 - 10 - 4 - 9
Race 8:   5 - 9 - 6 - 1
Race 9:   6 - 8 - 3 - 2

PLAYS

RACE 2: STONEFACTOR (#10)
The two main players in this conditioned claiming race are dropping out of the same New York-bred optional claiming event on Oct. 25. Merlins Muse finished well ahead of Stonefactor that day, but they worked out very different trips. Merlins Muse was rated well off the pace in the early going, though perhaps not far back enough, considering how the pace completely fell apart in the late stages. Merlins Muse obviously has the credentials to win this race despite her seemingly poor effort last time. She’s certainly worth using here based on her prior form, but I prefer Stonefactor at what figures to be a better price. Stonefactor got involved in a ridiculous early duel last time through unreasonably fast fractions for the distance over a demanding Belmont turf course that had taken some rain. It’s not a major surprise that she faded so readily following such a duel, especially going a distance that is probably too far for her anyway. She, too, should appreciate the cutback in trip and she had previously run some triple-digit TimeformUS Speed Figures that would give her a chance here. The rider switch to Joel Rosario is a positive one, and there isn’t much pace to go after her early this time. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is actually predicting that she will be clearly in front in a situation favoring the early leader.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 5,6,8

RACE 4: BACK CHARGE (#12)
The two runners likely to attract the most support in this race are Danzing Dunhill and Justintimeforwine, who finished third and second, respectively, in another auction price restricted maiden special weight last month. Danzing Dunhill, the beaten 4-5 favorite that day, may go off as the public choice once again given his pair of third place finishes in his first two starts. However, there’s no denying that Justintimeforwine ran the stronger race last time, as he carved out fast fractions and gamely battled back when passed by the eventual winner in the lane. He earned an impressive 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort, which would typically be a respectable number of a winner of an open maiden special weight. Some may hold it against him that he’s going out for a low-percentage barn and is ridden by Mike Luzzi, who doesn’t get many live mounts, but those are all constants from his last race into this one. I think he’s the horse to beat and that Danzing Dunhill has to improve to beat him. Yet, there’s a third major player in this race who may get somewhat overlooked. Back Charge ships in from Laurel and makes his first start on turf after one start sprinting on dirt in his debut. As a Maryland-bred, he took advantage of the option for the waived claiming tag last time and he actually made up some ground in the lane after getting outrun early. However, the switch to turf is supposed to move him up. His sire Jack Milton was a Grade 1 winner on turf who also won graded turf stakes as a 2-year-old, and there’s a ton of turf pedigree on the dam’s side. Five of her 7 foals to try the turf won over it, accounting for 26 wins among them. The best of those half-siblings were multiple turf stakes winner Phlash Phelps and turf stakes winner Action Andy. Phil Schoenthal does a good job out of town and he showed that he can send out a winner at NYRA by winning the first race here on Monday.

Win/Place: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 4,8,10

RACE 6: HIGH JINGO (#10)
Possible favorite First Appeal moves back up in class after she disappointed as the 4-5 favorite going 7 furlongs at Belmont last time. That distance may be a bit far for her, so turning back one furlong should suit her. She would also benefit from getting a bit more pace to close into after last time, when Vip Nation won in gate-to-wire fashion. First Appeal did get caught in traffic when attempting to rally two back, a race in which she otherwise would have been second with a clear run. There is speed drawn to the outside today, but it remains to be seen if she gets enough pace to set up her late run. The other runner likely to attract significant support has a similar running style. A Little Faith has sprinted on the turf twice and won both times. She was briefly caught in traffic coming to the quarter pole last time, but exploded through an opening when she found daylight in the stretch. She’s stepping up in class here, but she should get some pace to close into once again and she has more upside than many others. I’m using both of these favorites prominently, but my top pick is one of the Jason Servis trainees. High Jingo looks like a runner who can rebound in this spot. After the scratch of Forgotten Hero, the Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. Her last outing is obviously a major concern, since she was dead on the board at 7-2 and never had anything, backing up to last after failing to get the lead. Though, there is no alarming drop in class off that effort. That’s noteworthy considering that she’s trained by Servis, a trainer who is known for placing runners where they can win, even when aggressive drops in class are necessary. Over the past five years, Servis is 12 for 36 (33%, $2.32 ROI) with runners who finished out of the money last time, yet are not coming off a layoff and are competing for a claiming price of at least $35,000 (i.e. not taking a precipitous drop) on turf. I also think it’s worth pointing out that Irad Ortiz hops off his regular mount Hollywood Cat to get back on this mare instead.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 3,4,6,7
Trifecta: 10 with 3,4,7 with 3,4,6,7,8

RACE 8: BLOCKADE (#5)
Spirit Animal may go favored in a race that was brought back after getting taken off the turf at Belmont. His Saratoga effort was fine, as he stayed on evenly while no match for his stablemate Value Proposition, the trouble noted there being merely incidental. He showed promise as a juvenile, running deceptively well in the Pilgrim after a disastrous start, and still has upside. However, this is a tall order off the layoff and he doesn’t figure to offer much value. Speed has been dangerous on Aqueduct turf course, especially in recent days, and that makes Everyonelovesjames and Chantry Flats somewhat intriguing. Of those two, I prefer Chantry Flats. It took him nine starts to break his maiden, but he’s been earning TimeformUS Speed Figures that would make him competitive at this level for a while now. He should sit a good trip stalking Everyonelovesjames and he showed that he can get the mile last time. He’s a major player, but I’m going in a different direction and taking a shot with the returning Blockade. This 4-year-old is coming off a lengthy layoff, but showed real promise during his 2-year-old season, finishing second in the key race won by multiple stakes winner Analyze It. He only made one start after that, breaking his maiden at Gulfstream about 21 months ago. Layoffs of this length are a pretty big deal, but Shug McGaughey does well in these situations. Over the past 5 years, he is 6 for 17 (35%, $2.93 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more in turf routes at NYRA. Blockade appears to be training well for this return and he doesn’t have to improve that much on his form as an in experienced young horse to be a player here.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,6,8,9
Trifecta: 5 with 6,9 with 1,2,6,8,9

Picks & Plays for Monday, November 11

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 2:   6 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 3:   4 - 1A - 2 - 3
Race 4:   4 - 1A - 7 - 8
Race 5:   4 - 9 - 5 - 3
Race 6:   4 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 7:   2 - 5 - 7 - 8
Race 8:   5 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 9:   1 - 7 - 3 - 2
Race 10:   14 - 9 - 8 - 11

PLAYS

RACE 2: MONEY NEVER SLEEPS (#6)
I’m not saying anything particularly clever here, but I do think that the probable favorite Money Never Sleeps is a very likely winner of this race. Todd Pletcherjust does very well in these situations. Over the past five years, he is 18 for 41 (44%, $2.36 ROI) with second-time starters dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company on the dirt. But it’s not just the trainer stat that makes this horse appealing. This filly is exiting what appears to be a live maiden special weight race, out of which Power Move returned to finish second in the Tempted. While she wasn’t a serious factor that day, she ran like a filly who badly needed that experience. She was hard-ridden through the early stages and was briefly in contact with the first flight of runners heading down the backstretch. However, she quickly dropped back heading for the turn as she had to deal with kickback. She raced greenly into the lane and seemed hopelessly beaten at the quarter pole. However, once John Velazquez swung her out into the clear, she actually started finishing with some interest and was quickly passing horses under the line. It’s perhaps somewhat discouraging they’re immediately dropping in for a tag, but this is probably where she belongs. I just don’t really trust any of the others. Quantum Computing goes first off the claim for Danny Gargan, but she’d have to improve quite a bit on her debut effort for Chad Brown. Customerexperience debuts for the Chad Brown barn, but he doesn’t have the greatest statistics with runners making their first starts in maiden claiming company on dirt. The interesting firster to use might be Mariposa d’Oro, who appears to be working well down at Monmouth for Mike Stidham.

Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 1,2,4,5

RACE 6: FAIRY LINK (#4)
The horse to beat in this spot is Willing to Speed, who would be very difficult for this group to handle if he were to run back to any of his speed figures from the summer. Yet, I think there are some holes in this favorite. While he ran well in a series of races at the starter allowance level, he never got the job done and squandered opportunities to win after getting very good trips. They dropped him in for a tag at Belmont after missing two months, and he ran poorly twice. He disappointed as one of the favorites two back and then was very disappointing when unable to keep up in the lane last time. He may have reacted badly to coming back on just one week’s rest, but I still worry that his form has gone south. I’m not also not thrilled with the other horse likely to take money, Uncle Curly. He got a great trip and was a little lucky to break his maiden two back and it subsequently took him a long time to get back to the races. He was passing tired horses late in that NY-bred allowance, but now Clement immediately drops him in for the tag. Over the past 5 years, this barn is 4 for 24 (17%, $0.88 ROI) with horses making their first starts for a tag in turf routes. I’ll use both of these defensively, but I want to get a bit more creative. My top pick is the filly Fairy Link, who faces males here. She got pretty good for a few months as a 3-year-old filly before her form badly tailed off at the end of last year. She again was in pretty poor form when she first returned this year, but her last two efforts make it seem like she might be heading in the right direction. She encountered some traffic issues in the lane two back, and last time she finished well in a race that held together up front. Kendrick Carmouche is riding like he knows the rail is the place to be on the turf and she figures to work out a ground-saving trip from this post position.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,6

RACE 7: HONEY WON’T (#2)
This race is pretty wild. Fourteen horses have been entered and you can make a solid case for more than half of the runners in this field. I suppose the horse to beat is Wild One Forever, who makes his second start off the claim for Jeremiah Englehart. He didn’t do anything particularly special in his first start for this barn at Saratoga, but he did earn a respectable speed figure at this level. More importantly, he possesses early speed and that figures to make him dangerous over a turf course that has been favoring rail runners. However, he doesn’t have any major edge over this field from a form standpoint, and there are many others to consider. Lundqvist actually finished ahead of Wild One Forever in August and should appreciate a turnback. Mohican is somewhat interesting first time off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. He hasn’t run on turf much recently, but his effort from July makes him competitive here. Duress was visually impressive breaking his maiden first off the claim for Tom Albertrani, but he’s stepping up to face a stronger field this time. Even Clyde’s Runner has a serious chance based on his prior form, but it’s hard to envision him working out the right trip from his outside post position. Sticking with that theme, I’m going with a horse who I’m hoping works out the right trip. Honey Won’t needs to improve a bit to beat this field, but he figures to save ground from this rail slot under Joel Rosario. I know that he was beating much weaker when he won at Saratoga last time, but his prior two efforts actually make him more appealing. He didn’t run badly at all two back against a tougher N1X allowance field and his June performance at Belmont would give him a big shot here. In a race loaded with contenders, he could get somewhat lost in the shuffle.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5,6,7,8,10
Trifecta: 2 with 1,5,7,8 with 1,4,5,6,7,8,10

RACE 8: TAPAGE (#5)
This is another race in which competition runs deep. Horses like Portos and Vintage Print figure to attract plenty of support. The former is a goofy Tapit colt for Todd Pletcher who has an experience edge over this field, having already negotiated this two-turn configuration twice before. He clearly has ability, but he’s been fairly green in both starts. Vintage Print, a $1.8 million Chad Brown trainee, obviously needed his debut when closing belatedly going a mile at Belmont. He’s trained well in blinkers since that start and figures to move forward. Yet the one who intrigues me most from that Oct. 5 heat is Tapage. This son of Grade 1 winner Hystericalady has trained better in the morning than he’s run in the afternoon so far, but that could change in this spot. He took a big step forward in that second start and actually ran better than his fourth-place result would indicate. He didn’t get off to the best start and then was forced to make a premature move into contention on the backstretch. Put into an awkward position, he had to continue advancing wide on the turn and then raced greenly through upper stretch on his wrong lead. He actually finished decently when he finally switched over. I don’t mind this stretch-out to nine furlongs and I think we’re going to see a more professional effort. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s getting a rider switch to Joel Rosario, who has been riding as well as anyone on this circuit recently. I also wouldn’t dismiss Mischief Afoot out of that same race, since he beat the aforementioned runner last time. However, it’s unclear if the added distance will help him.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4,6
Trifecta: 5 with 2,3,4 with 2,3,4,6,8

RACE 10: PENDOLINO (#14)
Tom Bush has a pair of fillies in this spot who figure to attract the bulk of support and both are making the drop from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company. However, this barn doesn’t have the greatest statistics in this situation. Over the past 5 years, the Bush barn is 3 for 34 (9%, $0.62 ROI) with maiden special weight to maiden claiming company on turf. Of the pair, Plink Freud is the proven sprinter and Sandra’s Mine is cutting back. I slightly prefer the latter, since I think less distance actually benefits her and she appears to possess more tactical speed. However, I’d be using both in some capacity. I’m worried that both could be compromised by wide trips, so I’d rather look for a bigger price. My top pick also looks likely to work out a wide trip, but at least she’ll be a better price. Pendolino unfortunately drew the outside post position, but she is also getting some class relief as she drops down to this maiden claiming level. She actually ran pretty well three back at Saratoga when closing for third behind the very talented Lead Guitar. She didn’t fare as well in her only other turf start at Belmont two back, but she also didn’t get much pace to close into after getting compromised at the start. I don’t have any faith that she’ll save ground from this post, but she may get some pace to close into and that could make her dangerous at a square price.

Win: 14
Exacta Key Box: 14 with 2,6,8,9,11

Picks & Plays for Sunday, November 10

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   9 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 2:   7 - 2 - 1 - 9
Race 3:   1 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 4:   3 - 7 - 1/1A - 10
Race 5:   8 - 2 - 5 - 9
Race 6:   10 - 6 - 5 - 9
Race 7:   3 - 7 - 5 - 2
Race 8:   8 - 9 - 10 - 5
Race 9:   10 - 8 - 3 - 5
Race 10:   9 - 10 - 7 - 8

PLAYS

RACE 4: O SHEA CAN U SEE (#3)
At first glance, this entry looks pretty tough to beat. Mo Diddley appears to be the stronger half after winning at this level a month ago, his second straight victory since the claim by Mertkan Kantarmaci. He’s facing some of the same rivals and just has to reproduce that form at a different track. However, it’s worth noting that he got a very slow pace up front last time and he figures to face much more pressure this time from some key speed rivals like Laura’s Posse, Jewel Can Disco, and Sudden Surprise. He may have to run a lot better this time to overcome that scenario. The other half of this entry isn’t without a chance to serve as a backup plan. Playthatfunnymusic has kept decent company while facing open claimers recently and he may actually be suited by this turnback in distance. It’s not as if he’s a horse that needs the lead to win. I’ll use this pair defensively, but they’re unlikely to offer value. I instead think it’s worth upgrading some of the horses who were hindered by the pace situation in Mo Diddley’s last race. Candid Desire is the obvious one to take out of that spot, since he closed for third and has prior form that would make him a serious contender at this level. He’ll be on my tickets, but I prefer O Shea Can U See at what might be a slightly bigger price. This horse could only manage to get up for fifth last time, but he actually made up quite a bit of ground after getting outrun to the quarter pole. Furthermore, he’s been compromised by slow paces in each of his last two starts, as he also had little chance to close into a moderate tempo behind his stablemate two back. I like this slight stretch-out to 6 1/2 furlongs for him and I think he’s subtly in better form than it appears since the claim by Linda Rice.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,6,7,10

RACE 5: THREE OUTLAWS (#8)
Crack Shot figures to go off as the favorite here despite losing as the 4-5 favorite when making his first start against winners last time. Things didn’t quite work out for him that day from a trip standpoint, as another rival was sent hard from the inside and he was forced to rate for a quarter-mile before running up to engage around the far turn through fast fractions. He had a right to get tired late, but I still have some concerns about this guy’s stamina. He seemed to do best going 5 1/2 furlongs up at the Spa and it’s unclear if he’s quite as effective over today’s distance. I’m using him prominently, but I actually prefer the horse who finished just ahead of him in that Sept. 18 affair. Three Outlaws closed well to grab second that day under a lovely ride from Joel Rosario, but his trip didn’t go as smoothly last time. He was dealt a bad hand when forced to break from the second-widest post in a 12-horse field and Dylan Davis was just never able to save any ground. He also let this horse get shuffled back through the field around the far turn, sacrificing position in an attempt to get over closer to the rail. All of those efforts proved fruitless, as he got pushed out about seven wide into the stretch and flattened out late when attempting to close. I like this turn-back to six furlongs and the rider switch to Irad Ortiz Jr. doesn’t hurt. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting that he will get a fast early tempo ahead of him to set up his late run.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,4,5,9
Trifecta: 8 with 2,5,9 with 1,2,4,5,9,12

RACE 7: AURELIUS MAXIMUS (#3)
Network Effect looked like he might be on his way to the major Derby preps at the end of his 2-year-old season, but he didn’t train on and needed some time off. If he returns from the layoff in top form – or improves at all – he’s going to be very difficult for this field to handle. However, it’s difficult to know how he’s coming up to this race since he’s been training in seclusion up at Saratoga. I don’t want to read too much into the fact that he’s been working in company with stablemates at a variety of class levels, but I am a little concerned that he’s going to take a lot of money in this race based on form from a year ago. I’ll use him defensively, but this isn’t the kind of favorite that I want to take on top. I actually prefer Chad Brown’s other horse, primarily due to the fact that he figures to be a more palatable price. Aurelius Maximus hasn’t been seen for 13 months, but he had also shown promise as a juvenile. He was beaten by some good ones in the Grade 1 Champagne, a race out of which the other horse who closed from well back, Code of Honor, has gone on to become one of the best of his crop. This colt has the pedigree to get better with age and distance, and he’s been working well for the return. He obviously needs to take a step forward to win, but that’s certainly possible with natural improvement due to maturity. He’s my top pick, but I wouldn’t dismiss some of the other options beyond the Chad Brown pair. Gio d’Oro has speed that makes him dangerous in a race where the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the front-runners. If the aforementioned two don’t step forward, he could take advantage. I also wouldn’t totally dismiss horses like Allured and I Love Jaxson, both of whom are stepping up in class but have earned recent speed figures that make them contenders.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,5,7
Trifecta: 3 with 5,7 with 1,2,4,5,7

RACE 8: CARERRA CAT (#8)
The major players are exiting two key races on the Empire Showcase card in late October. The potential favorite here is Newly Minted, who disappointed at a short price in the Empire Distaff. There were some scary moments after the wire of that race as she appeared to trip and then fell. She quickly got back up on her feet and is apparently fine, having worked a bullet five furlongs just last week. All things considered, she didn’t run that badly after chasing a fast pace, and she should appreciate this slight turn-back to seven furlongs. Others have run a bit faster, but this filly has been very impressive in her victories and merits respect. The other filly to consider from that race is runner-up Our Super Nova, who made a surprising late run up the inside. She was with the flow of that race, but she still took a big step forward and may just be improving at the end of her 4-year-old season. I’m using her, but I prefer the horses coming out of the Iroquois. Fair Regis is the logical one to take out of that event after she finished second behind the impressive winner Pauseforthecause. She’s steadily improved with each start for Jason Servis, though this distance may test her stamina. I prefer Carerra Cat, who disappointed when fifth in that same race last time. She was conservatively ridden early, as the plan was seemingly to rate, and she got discouraged when unable to reel in the gate-to-wire winner. It might appear that her form is declining, but you could make the argument her last two efforts aren’t as bad as they seem. She would be awfully tough to beat if she ran back to her Union Avenue effort, and she proved she can get seven furlongs here last winter.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 5,9,10
Trifecta: 8 with 9,10 with 1,5,7,9,10

RACE 9: MISS J MCKAY (#10)
The Stewart Manor drew a large field of 12 runners, but I do think the focus is primarily on the shorter prices. Enola Gay figures to vie for favoritism off her visually impressive debut performance at Kentucky Downs. Others have run faster than her, but she did it the right way and beat two next-out winners in the process. I do think it’s somewhat curious that Shug McGaughey is actually cutting her back in distance rather than stretching out in a race like the Chelsey Flower, which was run last weekend, especially since she’s bred to go longer. Shug’s debut winners often get overbet second time out, so while I respect this one’s talent, I’ll go in a different direction in search of value. I have no major knocks against the other short price Miss J McKay and I just feel she’s more likely to win. This Maryland-bred filly has run well in all three of her starts, but has especially stepped forward since the switch to turf two back. She was disqualified out of a win in the Colleen, but there’s no doubt she was much the best that day. Then last time she proved she’s capable of rallying from well off the pace, as she made a sweeping move past the quarter pole to open up a large advantage in the blink of an eye. The 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure she earned for that performance stacks up well against this field and Cathal Lynch can win with NYRA shippers, as he proved with El Areeb a few years ago. The other horse I want to include at a price is Fly So Pretty. This filly overcame a rough trip to win her second start at Saratoga two back and then just didn’t appreciate the mile last time at Kentucky Downs. She’s going to get plenty of pace to close into here and she should appreciate the return to sprinting.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 3,5,8
Trifecta: 10 with 3,5,8 with 3,5,8,11

Picks & Plays for Saturday, November 9

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 2:   1 - 7 - 4 - 9
Race 3:   12 - 11 - 10 - 6
Race 4:   4 - 1/1A - 2 - 9
Race 5:   4 - 9 - 7 - 3
Race 6:   6 - 8 - 5 - 2
Race 7:   5 - 1 - 7 - 6
Race 8:   1 - 8 - 9 - 5
Race 9:   7 - 8 - 4 - 5
Race 10:   2 - 9 - 7 - 6

PLAYS

RACE 4: TIZANOXBOW (#4)
There’s very little concrete form to latch onto in this perplexing affair. The entry is going to take money merely because you get two for the price of one, as neither half of this pair is particularly trustworthy. Bustin Mach Four comes out of a narrow loss in a race at this level, but I’m not sure that I want any of the horses from that event. It was a very weak race – even weaker than this one, if that’s possible – and I think there are some more intriguing new faces in this line-up. I want to take a shot with Tizanoxbow getting back on dirt. This 3-year-old should be a square price, since his recent form is pretty discouraging. However, it’s worth remembering that his only start on the dirt last March is a lot better than it appears on paper. He was badly hampered at the start when he got away slowly and awkwardly. From there, his rider immediately put him into a drive, and he made a premature move all the way up into contention by the quarter pole. Most horses – especially first time starters – would have backed up after such an ill-timed run, yet Tizanoxbow kept coming, finishing a fast-closing second. That obviously wasn’t a strong race, but he arguably could have run a speed figure that makes him competitive here if he’d been given a fair start. Obviously things haven’t gone smoothly since then, but now he’s back at a realistic level and making his first dirt start with Lasix.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5,9

RACE 5: LUCK MONEY (#4)
Given the scratch of Water White, my original top pick is going to get bet down more than I had originally hoped. That horse, Luck Money, probably should be favored now as she ships up for Arnaud Delacour. This filly stretched out on turf in a pair of races in Kentucky recently, finishing second at Kentucky Downs before rallying for third at Keeneland. It’s that last start that interests me most, since I think she ran much better than her finish would indicate. She went four wide around the first turn and proceeded to race wide thereafter, again losing ground around the far turn. According to Trakus, she ran 55 more feet than the winner and 63 more feet than the ground-saving runner-up. She arguably could have won that race with a better trip, and her TimeformUS Speed Figures in the mid-90s already make her good enough to contend here. She’s well bred as a half-sister to Breeders’ Cup winner Furthest Land out of a half-sister to millionaire Dynever, so I don’t think we’ve yet seen the best she has to offer. I also want to include Ylikedis somewhere underneath. This Laurel shipper didn't get an ideal trip in her debut, as she was tucked down towards the inside in a race that featured an outside flow and had to navigate traffic when unable to gain momentum in the stretch. In my opinion, she's the one that you want out of that race.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,7,8,9
Trifecta: 4 with 7,9 with 1,3,5,7,8,9

RACE 7: PINK SANDS (#5)
This race has changed a great deal in its second iteration after it was initially cancelled two Sundays ago. The main players in that event have not entered back, so we’re left with a pretty evenly-matched group of top contenders. Notably, much of the speed is gone, so that should make Philanthropic especially dangerous. The Pace Projector is predicting that this Jason Servis trainee will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. She obviously needs to improve on her recent form to beat this field, but she’s going to find herself in a favorable situation and it’s usually a good sign when Jason Servis is aggressive with these types. I’m using her, but I’m not thrilled with the idea of a short price on such a runner. My top pick is Pink Sands. Her recent form leaves something to be desired, but I like this turnback in distance for her. She wanted no part of the two-turn 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga two back and then she never had a chance after a stumbling break when caught behind a slow pace at Churchill Downs last time. She had previously run well in a few stakes attempts out of town and I still believe that her ideal distance is seven furlongs. It’s somewhat of a concern that she won’t get much pace to close into here, but Jose Ortiz seems to ride this filly better than anyone else. The others to include are Saguaro Row, who may want slightly less distance than this, and Majestic Reason, who has to back up her stakes placing behind Come Dancing in the Gallant Bloom last time. I could move up either one if they drift up at all from their morning line prices.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,6,7
Trifecta: 1,5 with 1,5 with 2,4,6,7

RACE 8: FRONTIER MARKET (#1)
It seems like there has to be a fast pace in this race as long as the field holds together. There are four key speeds signed on with Gidu and Voodoo Song potentially the fastest of that group. We saw the kind of damage that Gidu can do to pace pressers in the Fourstardave over the summer, as he ran off in the early stages, ultimately forcing the race to collapse while setting up a track -record performance. Given the presence of those front-runners, this seems like a race that should set up for closers. Caribou Club is one of those. This gelding didn’t make the trip out to California when stuck on the AE list for the Breeders’ Cup Mile, instead targeting this more realistic goal. He’s had a bit of a tumultuous year, with that trip to Dubai briefly derailing him, but he seems to be back in top form now off the strength of a stakes win at Laurel last time. He must be doing well for his connections to be thinking about the Breeders' Cup, so expect him to deliver another strong performance. I’m using Caribou Club prominently, but my top pick is the runner who narrowly lost to him last time. Frontier Market is as consistent as they come, having finished in the exacta in 10 of 11 starts, and he just keeps improving with each race. He made his belated stakes debut last time at Laurel and fell just short while making a belated rally in a race that was coming apart at the end. He got plenty of pace to close into that day, but there’s also speed signed on here. He’s now reunited with regular pilot Irad Ortiz for this start and I think he makes the most sense given the projected dynamics.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,8,9
Trifecta: 1 with 8,9 with 3,4,5,8,9,10

RACE 9: MONTAUK DADDY (#7)
The runners exiting the Futurity seem like strong contenders given how well the winner of that race, Four Wheel Drive, ran in winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint last week. The one who figures to attract the most support out of that race is runner-up Freewheeler. I’m not quite sure what to do with this New York-bred colt, who was still somewhat green in that stakes performance last time and got an excellent ground-saving trip whereas others didn’t get ideal setups. I’ll use him defensively, but I actually prefer two of the colts who finished behind him last time. Jack and Noah ran off in the early stages while setting a fast pace and had a right to get tired while competing just 9 days after his debut. I’m also quite interested in Embolden, who was unwisely rated at the back of the pack in that Futurity after racing successfully from the front end in his prior turf starts. His connections are putting blinkers on for this start, so one would assume that he’ll be more forwardly placed this time. I like that Joel Rosario retains the mount and I think he has more to offer than what we saw at Belmont last time. I’m using both of these prominently, but my top pick is Montauk Daddy. He’s coming off a layoff, but he also exits a strong race. That Skidmore at Saratoga has been productive, as winner Another Miracle was third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint and runner-up Proven Strategies lost the Juvenile Turf by only 2 lengths. Montauk Daddy ran off around the far turn that day, opening up a large lead while getting out, so it’s not surprising that he tired in the lane. Now he returns off an impressive series of drills, which were accomplished with an extension blinker, and he is expected to wear that equipment in this race. Other rivals are fast early, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one outrun them all to the lead under Kendrick Carmouche. He’s more talented than those speed figures indicate.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,5,6,8,11

RACE 10: FLATTER ME (#2)
There are many contenders to consider in this wide-open maiden event to end the day. My strategy in this race is to try to get the Chad Brown runners out of the top slots. I’m just not thrilled with either Toledo or Aasr and I anticipate that both of them are going to attract some support. Toledo may even go favored off his runner-up debut effort, but I don’t think that was a particularly strong race and Toledo got a fairly decent trip and had little excuse at a short price. I won’t be shocked if he improves, but I also don’t think he’s going to offer any value. I instead prefer horses coming out of the one-mile race on October 5. Onward didn’t get the best trip, as his rider decided to get some cover on the backstretch before the field bunched up. He ultimately got caught in traffic coming to the quarter pole and lost momentum, though I didn’t love the way he shut down in the last furlong. Given the scratch of my original top pick, I would like to upgrade Flatter Me. He comes out of the same weak race as Toledo, but I thought he got a better education that day. He was put in tight quarters behind horses for much of the running and lost momentum coming to the quarter pole when unable to get a clear path. He was bet pretty strongly that day and should show a lot more speed second time out. It's not as if there's a ton of sprint speed in this spot so I wouldn't be surprised to see Manny Franco blast off from the inside.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5,6,7,9

Picks & Plays for Friday, November 8

by David Aragona

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PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 2:   9 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 3:   5 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 4:   6 - 7 - 2 - 3
Race 5:   8 - 1 - 10 - 7
Race 6:   6 - 7 - 8 - 4
Race 7:   10 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 8:   10 - 1 - 14 - 5
Race 9:   9 - 7 - 2 - 10

PLAYS

RACE 4: KOSCIUSZKO (#6)
Leaky Cup will be tough to beat in this spot if he runs back to his last effort, in which he nearly survived a contested pace while hanging on for third against a strong field at this level. That and his prior dirt start in the slop at Saratoga both make him fast enough to beat a field at this level, and I think he’s deserving of respect. However, he’s a need-the-lead type, and there is another front-runner in this field. Foolish Ghost’s form has been pretty inconsistent, but he’s quick enough to put some serious pressure on Leaky Cup in the early stages. While I’m not expecting an extremely fast pace, the fractions should be honest enough to give the stalkers and mid-pack types a fair chance. My top pick is Kosciuszko. This 3-year-old actually finished a nose ahead of Leaky Cup when they last met on Sept. 25. Kosciuszko did get a favorable trip that day, but he was also making his first start off an extended layoff so he has a right to step forward. Therefore, it was somewhat surprising to see him regress last time. However, he was compromised by a moderate pace that day and the overall performance wasn’t as discouraging as it might seem. I think he can get back on track here and he figures to work out another perfect stalking trip.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4,7
Trifecta: 6,7 with 6,7 with 2,3,4

RACE 6: FULL SALUTE (#6)
The two classy runners in this lineup are drawn towards the outside. Life in Shambles has netted over $800,000 in his career, but his form is starting to decline as he nears the end of his 8-year-old season. Jason Servis is getting realistic and dropping him in for some mid-level claiming tags, just trying to find the class level at which he can win these days. He ran fairly well in a similar spot last time and just couldn’t quite hold off the winner going 7 furlongs. This slight turnback should benefit him, though it remains to be seen if he can put solid efforts back to back. The other runner with back class who is likely to attract support is Earned Success. This guy is making his second start for a tag after previously getting offered for $80,000 last October. This once-promising sort just hasn’t really developed for Chad Brown. While he’s arguably more trustworthy than the runner posted to his inside, it’s not as if his recent TimeformUS Speed Figures make him all that formidable here, despite the drop in class. I want to go in a different direction and I think it’s worth looking at the TimeformUS Pace Projector for ideas. It’s predicting that Full Salute will be clearly in front in a situation likely to favors horses on or near the lead. That should make this returning 6-year-old a dangerous gate-to-wire threat. This gelding has plenty of back class and ran some competitive speed figures at this level when in action during 2018. The layoff is a concern, as is the trainer switch, but this barn has sent out a pair of longshots to run surprisingly well in recent weeks. Furthermore, this horse is returning with the claiming tag waived, while showing a recent bullet workout in 46 3/5 seconds from the gate. That drill was the fastest of 127 at the distance, nearly a full second faster than the next-best time of the day. An aggressive rider is named, so this horse looks ready to roll.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,5,7,8
Trifecta: 6 with 7,8 with 2,4,5,7,8

RACE 7: SHAMROCK KID (#10)
Doups Point was beaten as the 6-5 favorite in that Oct. 13 event, which a few of these exit, and he figures to take money again. This plodding type raced wide throughout and was unable to reel in the leaders going the mile last time. He’s unlikely to get much more pace ahead of him in this spot, and I also feel that he may prefer slightly more distance than this. I won’t argue with anyone who feels that Doups Point is the horse to beat, but keep in mind that he’s been favored in 5 of his last 6 starts and has only achieved a single victory during that stretch. One of his main rivals appears to be the likely speed Danebury. This gelding was able to transfer his improved Finger Lakes form to a NYRA track last time, taking advantage of a favorable pace setup to hang on for second against some of the same rivals he meets here. He relishes the one-turn mile and is drawn well outside of main pace foe Carthon once again. He looks like one of the main threats, the only drawback being that you have to take a shorter price than the 7-1 he was last time. There are a number of contenders at bigger prices to consider, and the one who interests me most is Shamrock Kid. This 4-year-old was one of the most unlucky losers of the summer at Saratoga. He dwelt badly at the break that day and had no business nearly winning the race, especially considering that he was forced to close into a slow pace after that disastrous start. It’s taken him a while to resurface, but now he’s back at the same level, while turning back to a more appropriate distance. He hasn’t achieved the flashy speed figures of some others, but he was in excellent form when last seen. He also might have needed that brief time away after not getting any breaks since his career debut as a 2-year-old.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,4,5,7
Trifecta: 10 with 4,5 with 1,2,3,4,5,7

RACE 8: BLESSED HALO (#10)
This is a wild race. You could make a case for many runners in this diverse 14-horse line-up. The logical contenders are drawn towards the outside. Fig Jelly may go favored after placing in a pair of stakes at Monmouth over the summer. However, he didn’t have a major excuse when losing his lone NYRA start this year, falling short against what was probably a weaker field than this. And that’s been his issue, as he tends to settle for second rather than fighting for the victory. McErin would be formidable if able to recapture the form he displayed for Jason Servis, but I’m not betting on that prospect. Dirty seems more reliable as the seemingly stronger half of the uncoupled Jeremiah Englehart entry. He’s been keeping strong company in the mid-Atlantic region and was hardly disgraced when attempting to close in the Grade 1 Jaipur earlier in the year. He just has to work out a trip from mid-pack while breaking from the outside post in a race that features a confusing pace scenario. There are other logical players to consider like Kitten’s Cat, but I want to look outside the box for my top selection. Blessed Halo is a curious presence in this race. Brad Cox is not the type of trainer to spot horses too aggressively, so it’s noteworthy that this seemingly cheap runner is even entered in a race of this caliber. At first glance, he seems totally overmatched, but there are some things to like when you dig a bit deeper. Let’s remember that he once was good enough to be competitive at this level. He earned a 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure when winning a race at this distance in May 2018 and he ran well a few times subsequently without making a return visit to the winner’s circle. He was claimed away from Dave Cannizzo by Brad Cox, a significant switch, but didn't get back to the races until this summer. And I think it would be fair to say that we haven’t yet gotten the chance to see a true effort out of him while in the new barn’s care. He got rained off the turf at Saratoga and then he didn’t get an ideal trip last time. Blessed Halo needs to be forwardly placed to have a chance, and it all went wrong right after the start last time as he was bumped and steadied out of position. However, unlike in his previous starts, he actually didn’t get discouraged and was rallying through the stretch. The old Blessed Halo seemed incapable of passing horses at any point during a race, yet the one we saw last time was finishing with real interest. If he gets a cleaner start from this outside post, he should be forwardly placed in a race that doesn’t feature many true front-runners. He probably needs a career-best effort to win, but given what he hinted at last time and the confidence being displayed now, I don’t think that’s outside the realm of possibility.

Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,5,13,14

RACE 9: BELLA ROSE (#9)
I’m not thrilled with any of the horses who figure to be short prices in this race. Days of Spring has run out of chances from me after losing her last couple of starts at the maiden claiming level with no apparent excuses. Roma Delight is slightly more appealing as she drops in for a tag for the first time, though her form is a little inconsistent. Howver, she probably was on the wrong part of the track last time in a race that featured an outside flow, and she may not have to improve much to beat this field. I’ll use her defensively, but my top pick is first time turfer Bella Rose. This filly just seemed like she wanted no part of the dirt in her debut. She raced greenly through the early stages, was getting out when facing kickback on the turn and trudged home last. Bellamy Road is not the strongest turf influence, but the dam was a 5-time turf winner and her only foal to try the turf was a turf sprint winner. The second generation is all European bloodlines. I like that Manny Franco is named to ride and I expect her to move up on this surface. It’s not as if she has to be a future star to do well in this spot.

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,7,8,10

Picks & Plays for Thursday, November 7

by David Aragona

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PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 2:   1 - 7 - 3 - 5
Race 3:   4 - 7 - 3 - 2
Race 4:   5 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 5:   11 - 1 - 2 - 12
Race 6:   8 - 2 - 9 - 6
Race 7:   4 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 8:   2 - 9 - 5 - 6
Race 9:   8 - 6 - 1 - 5

PLAYS

RACE 3: CONFORTO (#4)
It’s difficult to know how the public will approach this race, since there are many contenders and few standouts among them. I suppose a horse like Variant Perception could go favored, despite the claim away from Chad Brown, since he had run some speed figures that would him formidable against this group going back to the spring. However, he disappointed at this level last time and has generally been the beneficiary of some favorable trips when he’s done well. This time, he might not get the pace ahead of him that he needs, since the Pace Projector is predicting a “No Speed” situation. That scenario could benefit Inscom, who possesses the tactical speed to lead this field early. He ran well enough at Belmont in his last two starts, and his speed gives him a tactical edge that makes him dangerous, but others are more intriguing. Croque Monsieur seems to have found the right class level and comes off an impressive win at the Meadowlands, though his closing style may not work in this race. I’ve landed on Conforto as my top selection. He’s going to be a bit of a price in this spot and I think he can work out a decent trip. He displayed that he’s good enough to win at this level two back when he lost a nose decision going a mile at Belmont. Some may hold his poor effort last time against him, but he never really had a chance that day when caught behind a dawdling early pace. He’s clearly better than that and I think he’s a major threat if he can get back on track.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,5,7,11

RACE 4: SOMETHINGTOTELLYOU (#5)
The two runners with the best dirt form are First Deputy and Tapizearance. The former began his career on turf, but made a successful transition to the main track last time, launching a middle move to take the lead past midstretch before getting run down late. The winner of that race, Captain Bombastic, returned to win the Sleepy Hollow with a 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure, so this colt figures to attract support off that company line. However, he has to get a little bit faster to put himself on common ground with Tapizearance, who has already earned speed figures strong enough to win at this level and has handled the distance. I’m using both prominently, but I think there are some more lightly raced contenders to consider. The one that intrigues me most is Somethingtotellyou. This Todd Pletcher trainee didn’t attract much support when he made his debut going 6 1/2 furlongs last month. He was hard-ridden early, showing brief speed before steadily backing up through the pack. However, he didn’t just give up after dropping back to 7th at the quarter pole. This colt actually stayed on fairly well through the final two furlongs and was running on with energy across the wire. He looked to me like one that is just crying out for more distance. His sire Honor Code was best over route trips and his dam Dean Henry was a stakes winner going 1 1/8 miles on the dirt, so he’s supposed to relish added ground. Todd Pletcher does fairly well with this move and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one take a big step forward second time out.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,6,7
Trifecta: 5 with 3,4 with ALL

RACE 6: BEALE STREET (#8)
I don’t have a major problem with Fancy That, the likely favorite. While this filly has yet to actually win a race on turf, she’s been beaten by a pair of superior rivals in her last two starts. Furthermore, she never had the chance to reel in Pivotal Connection last time once that filly got loose on the front end through slow early fractions. The only major hurdle for Fancy That this time is the distance, since she’s stretching out around the three turns for the first time. Yet she hasn’t shown major stamina limitations in her prior starts and many of the alternatives are in the same boat with regard to the stretch-out. I respect her, but I’m looking elsewhere for value. I’m done with Quiet Dignity, who always seems to take money for Chad Brown and keeps disappointing. Her presence just figures to inflate the prices of the other alternatives. Michael Matz ships in a pair of fillies that seem to fit this spot fairly well. Monhegan comes off a maiden victory at Colonial Downs where she beat a relatively weak field. However, she had previously run well against some tougher maiden groups and has already proven that she can handle the 11 furlongs. I’m using her, but my top pick is Matz’s other runner Beale Street. She’s stretching out to this marathon trip for the first time, but she strikes me as one who will love it. She’s been closing belatedly in her recent races going shorter distances, most notably last time when she made an eye-catching late rush from a hopeless position to get up for second at Laurel. This 3-year-old seems to be improving with every start, and she hinted that she might have this kind of ability all the way back in February when she was third behind the subsequently stakes-placed Dyna Passer. As long as the turf course is still playing fairly to all running styles following last week’s rain, she should be tough to hold off.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,6,9,11

RACE 8: ZIP DRIVE (#2)
Likely favorite Saratoga Treasure had no trouble transitioning out of NY-bred company last time, as she maintained her improved form, arguably running the best race of her career despite finishing third. Some of her rivals in this spot have more upside, but you know what you’re going to get from this reliable 4-year-old filly, who has put forth nothing but solid efforts since the trainer switch to David Donk at the start of the year. She isn’t meeting the toughest field for this level and just seems like the horse to beat. One alternative who may attract some support is O’Malley, who seeks her third consecutive victory while moving up the class ladder. This 3-year-old was a winner off the claim for Servis, and now steps up again to meet N1X foes while turning back to the shortest distance she’s tried since her career debut. Servis is 6 for 17 (35%, $2.19 ROI) with last-out winners second off the claim on turf over 5 years, so these types can come right back to get it done. However, she’d need to significantly improve her speed figures, and may be slightly overbet due to the connections. I’m most interested in Zip Drive, who turns back to a sprint distance in this spot. She won her only prior turf sprint attempt at Colonial over the summer, albeit against weaker, and that was coming off a significant layoff, so she has a right to do better now. She showed good progression when moved up against winners last time, fading to fourth only after chasing a fast pace while earning a field-best 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The winner of that event seems like a promising sort and this filly was just two necks out of second place. She was headstrong while chasing a run-off leader that day, but she showed the ability to rate kindly in her prior sprint start.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,6,9,10
Trifecta: 2 with 5,9 with 3,5,6,9,10,12

Picks & Plays for Sunday, November 3

by David Aragona

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PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 2:   9 - 1 - 10 - 5
Race 3:   8 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 4:   3 - 1 - 6 - 8
Race 5:   4 - 10 - 9 - 5
Race 6:   5 - 8 - 9 - 1
Race 7:   5 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 8:   3 - 5 - 8 - 7
Race 9:   10 - 8 - 6 - 5
Race 10:   8 - 9 - 2 - 7

PLAYS

RACE 2: JO’S BOLD CAT (#9)
Worth a Shot is probably going to be a strong favorite in this spot based on the strength of his maiden victory last time at Belmont. This full-brother to Grade 1 winner Voodoo Song had shown potential in his first couple of starts, but had been something of a disappointment, squandering two opportunities to win in the last sixteenth of this races. Last time out they tried rating him behind rivals and he produced a furious finish, albeit against a relatively weak group of maidens for the level. Nevertheless, that 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the highest in this field. He has to stretch out to the mile here, but it shouldn’t be a major issue given his pedigree. I respect him, but I just don’t want to accept a short price on such a runner given other reliable options. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace with plenty of other speeds in this field, and he should be one of those that’s on the engine from the start. Dashing Dan seems like a viable alternative, except for the fact that he seemingly needs the lead and he may not get it with horses like Rockin Jo and Big Wonder in the field. I want to go in a different direction, so I’m siding with the closer Jo’s Bold Cat. I realize that this horse has focused on sprints in many of his recent starts, but he had been a confirmed router prior to that, and I still think he’s better going this one-mile distance. He earned a competitive speed figure when beating a field of comparable quality at Laurel last time, launching a sustained rally from the back of the pack. He got plenty of pace to close into that day, but a similar scenario figures to play out here. I typically wouldn’t love a horse in a spot like this, since he’s not exactly a winning type, but I just think he fits the race very well.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,5,8,10

RACE 4: FABULOUS FUN (#3)
Somes Sound is likely to go off as a prohibitive favorite, and there’s little doubt that he’s going to beat this field if he repeats that 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned when finishing second to the stakes-bound Free Enterprise last time. He clearly responded well to the addition of blinkers, showing good early speed and continuing on even when challenged at the quarter pole. This horse had reportedly trained well from the start and he finally seems to be delivering on that potential. I’m using him prominently, but I don’t fully trust him at a short price. We still need to see him back up that last performance and there are some alternatives in this race who seem to have talent. One of those is Long Term Thinking, who was disqualified out of his debut “win” at Monmouth first time out. He regressed slightly at Parx last time, but he seemed to run in spots that day, getting on track in the last furlong after lagging early. He should benefit from the addition of blinkers. I’m using both of these, but I’m most interested in the returning Fabulous Fun, who makes his first start in over a year. This colt was highly-touted prior to his debut at Saratoga in the summer of 2018, getting bet down to 5-1 in a loaded maiden race. He showed brief speed and tired badly, and was subsequently put on the shelf. He resurfaced on the worktab earlier this year and, having observed one of his recent drills, he appears to have matured beautifully. He looks like quite a physical specimen and seems to be training with the same level of aggression that we saw from him as a 2-year-old. As with most Phipps runners, his pedigree is impeccable, by Distorted Humor from the family of Breeders’ Cup winner Pleasant Home and multiple graded stakes winner Country Hideaway, who is his second dam. Shug McGaughey’s runners can fire off layoffs and the fact that Jose Ortiz takes the mount is a good sign.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,6,8

RACE 5: MICHELINE (#4)
Sparkling Sky and English Breeze should vie for favoritism here as they seek a bit of class relief. Both ran well in the Miss Grillo Stakes, closing belatedly to be fourth and fifth, respectively. I slightly prefer Sparkling Sky, since she had some trouble at the start and was finishing faster at the end, but I’m still not sure how strong that race was overall, especially after neither of the top two finishers ran particularly well in the Breeders’ Cup. Astoria Kitten intrigues me a bit at a more enticing price. She is likely to be in front if she runs a similar race to last time, and the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead. I know this is a filly that Danny Gargan has been very high on from the start, so it was good to see her fulfill that potential last time when breaking her maiden. She showed vastly improved speed with blinkers on and dominated up front in a race that basically fell apart behind her. It’s not as if too many of her rivals have run much faster than that and Kendrick Carmouche should be able to back down the pace a bit. I’m using her prominently, but my top pick is Micheline, who may be an even larger price. She gets back on turf after contesting the Alcibiades on dirt, a race in which she had no real chance behind some superior rivals. She actually showed some promise in her debut, closing to be third into a fairly slow pace behind some talented fillies despite displaying a lack of focus. She then broke her maiden in a fairly weak edition of the Sorority two back, but she was fairly green that day, finishing well once she finally leveled off in the last furlong. This would be her first turf start with Lasix.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,5,9,10
Trifecta: 4 with 5,9,10 with 2,5,6,9,10

RACE 7: BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON (#5)
Proven Reserves is going to be among the favorites in this race for the wrong reasons. He was a talented 3-year-old who hasn’t yet recaptured that form on dirt this season. His two main track efforts earlier this summer were not good – it’s pretty hard to put much of a positive spin on them. He earned a heightened speed figure in the Sword Dancer last time on the turf – an irrelevant factor as it pertains to his chances in this race – and he may take money on that basis. The fact that Chad Brown hasn’t dropped him in for a tag is a moderately positive sign, and I acknowledge that he’s not meeting the toughest field here. However, he figures to offer poor value from a win perspective, so I’m taking a modest stand against him. I prefer Backsideofthemoon, who makes his second start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. He didn’t show the expected improvement last time when making his initial start for this new barn, but it’s important to remember that he’s never shown a great affinity for a wet track, particularly a sealed one. He’s going to get back on more suitable going on Sunday, and the return at Aqueduct shouldn’t hurt, since he seems to put forth his best efforts at this track. He had previously run superior speed figures for Leo O’Brien, so it stands to reason that he should be able to at least get back to that form for the Rodriguez barn. This race drew an unusually weak field for this level, so he’s the class of this bunch and it’s possible he won’t even be favored.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4,6
Trifecta: 5 with 3,4,6 with 1,2,3,4,6

RACE 8: BEAU BELLE (#3)
This redrawn Zagora is as confusing as it was last Sunday, now with one new addition, Empressof the Nile, who figures to vie for favoritism with Fools Gold. Both of these fillies are coming off poor efforts against tougher company and now seek a bit of class relief. Empressof the Nile has a better excuse for her lackluster performance last time, since she was racing in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl against Sistercharlie, whereas Fools Gold was off the board – and behind Empressof the Nile – at 2-1 odds in the Glens Falls. I don’t fully trust either of these fillies, especially in a race as competitive as this, but I’ll use them defensively. The other logical player is Lemon Zip, who ran a career-best effort going this distance against males last time, nearly getting up to win the Japan Turf Cup at Laurel. She’s clearly turned into a different horse since she’s been stretched out to these marathon distances, and she handled a course with some give to it back in June. My top pick is Beau Belle, who actually ran in this race last year while still a 3-year-old maiden. That was a weaker race than this one, but she nevertheless stayed on decently to be fourth over extremely testing ground, proving that she can get the distance. There’s no disputing she’s in much better form now, as she’s coming off a career-best effort behind Sistercharlie in the Flower Bowl. She hasn’t gotten the chance to try this distance much since the Zagora, as they don’t write many races going this far for maidens or N1X runners. However, she’s always been cut out to be a turf marathoner and her form might just be coming around at the right time. Furthermore, there isn’t much speed in this field and the Pace Projector is predicting that she can make the front. The other horse that I want to use is Wegetsdamunnys. At first glance, she seems like a curious participant in this spot, since she’s never raced beyond 9 furlongs. However, when you start to take a closer look at her, this move actually makes some sense. She’s a slow-breaking plodder who just lags at the back of the pack for most of her races, so it probably won’t be that taxing on her to trail the field for a few extra furlongs before launching her run. Furthermore, she’s proven that she runs better on courses with some give to them, so she’s likely to relish the ground on Sunday.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,7,8

RACE 9: ASHAAR (#10)
I have no major knocks against Meru, who is a deserving favorite in the Nashua. He’s done everything asked of him in his first two starts, notably winning in stylish fashion at Monmouth last time while earning an impressive 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure – one of the highest numbers assigned to a 2-year-old all year. He has to stretch out to a mile this time, but he certainly has the pedigree to handle it as a son of Sky Mesa out of a dam who won going 1 1/8 miles. However, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace and he could get caught up in an early duel, which might compromise his chances. I also wouldn’t discount another other horse with stakes experience, Lebda. This guy couldn’t quite get the two turns behind Dennis’ Moment last time, but he should be more at home at this one-turn configuration. He’s fast enough to contend here at what should be a square price. Yet the most intriguing contenders in this lineup are the recent maiden winners. I respect the pair coming in from Parx, and think Independence Hall is especially likely to move forward with added ground. Yet my top pick is the local horse Ashaar, who impressively won his debut at Belmont last month. This colt had been working very well prior to that start, and he was professional in victory, rating kindly before taking over on the far turn with a decisive move. He was geared down in the late stages, but presents himself as a horse who should have no trouble with the mile distance. Furthermore, Kiaran McLaughlin is 9 for 23 (39%, $2.32 ROI) with last-out debut winners in their second starts on dirt over the past five years.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 5,6,7,8
Trifecta: 10 with 6,8 with 1,5,6,7,8,9