Aqueduct TimeformUS Race Analysis

Picks & Plays for Monday, January 20

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 2:   5 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 3:   4 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 4:   5 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 5:   8 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 6:   7 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 7:   2 - 1 - 6 - 8
Race 8:   5 - 2 - 3 - 7
Race 9:   10 - 3 - 11 - 6

PLAYS

RACE 1: SEED MONEY (#1)
Who’s in Charge figures to be a prohibitive favorite in the opener as he makes his first start for the Danny Gargan barn. He would be very difficult to beat if he is able to run back to his debut performance at Gulfstream, in which he defeated a slew of promising runners, including the accomplished allowance horse Fortune’s Fool. However, it took him nearly four months to get back to the races after that and he was dreadful when he faced the starter again at Churchill Downs. Now he’s returning from an 8-month layoff and dropping in for a tag for the first time, so there are definitely some questions to be answered. Gargan has fantastic statistics with this move, but I’m still wary of this runner at a short price. There is no clear alternative among the other 5 competitors. Mandatory Payout has run multiple speed figures that would put him in the mix, but he’s had his chances and is still 1-for-15 lifetime. I want to go for a slightly better price, so I’m taking a shot with Seed Money second off the layoff. This colt had shown some talent last winter, beating the solid allowance runner Red Zinger when he broke his maiden over this track last March. Things went awry after that, but he had excuses for both of those poor efforts in the spring. He only finished 7th last time, but he actually put in a solid effort within the context of that race, making a premature move on the turn after getting shuffled out of position coming out of the gate. Leah Gyarmati makes the switch to 10-pound bug rider Luis Cardenas, who has ridden well with limited opportunities. Seed Money possesses more speed than he displayed last time and he can be competitive here with even slight progression.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,5,6

RACE 2: LADY CAT (#5)
The public is likely to focus on three runners in this weak maiden claiming affair, none of which are particularly enticing from a wagering standpoint. Our Ticket figures to be the favorite after just missing last time, though she was disqualified out of that second-place finish for ducking out into a rival during the stretch drive. While she gets a drop in claiming price, she was meeting another very weak field last time, so it’s unclear if she’s really getting any class relief. It’s also no certainty that she’s going to appreciate added distance. Eighty Seven North and Two Graces are her two main rivals and at least both of them have proven that they can handle route distances. However, both have run slightly better on turf than dirt recently and their recent form leaves a lot to be desired. I think this is a spot where we can get a bit more creative, so I’m taking a shot with the lightly raced Lady Cat. This filly has been beaten by double-digit margins in both starts to date, but she was sprinting 6 furlongs in each of those races. She doesn’t possess any early speed, but she was finishing well in the stretch and galloped out after the wire with significant interest last time. Furthermore, her pedigree suggests that added distance will be to her liking, since her dam was best going longer and she’s a half-sister to the route specialist Ex Ex Ex. She won’t have to improve that much to take down the aforementioned contenders.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4

RACE 4: ANCIENT BROWN (#5)
Ice Princess is obviously the horse to beat as she drops out of the Grade 1 Frizette. You can’t blame her connections for taking a shot in that prestigious race, but it was nevertheless a tall order for a filly who had merely beaten an overmatched group of turf horses in her debut. She put forth an honest effort, closing willingly to be fourth in a race that didn’t exactly set up for late runners. Her TimeformUS Speed Figures in the mid90s are clearly the best in this field and she still has room to improve in just her third career start. I’m hardly against her, but her merits are fairly obvious. I’m taking a shot with the second-time starter Ancient Brown. She made a decisive middle move around the far turn in her debut after breaking slowly and proceeded to draw off with ease in the lane. The problem with that race is that it was objectively slow from a speed figure standpoint. However, a longshot got loose on the front end through moderate early fractions that day, which may have negatively impacted the final time. It was also the first race of the day, and we have routinely seen this Aqueduct main track speed up throughout the afternoon. I think it’s also noteworthy that the runner-up from that race returned to win her next start by 10 lengths with an improved speed figure, suggesting that the race may be better than it appears. Ancient Brown figures to show more speed here and I don’t anticipate her having trouble with the added distance.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,6
Trifecta: 5,6 with 5,6 with 2,3,4

RACE 7: HEAVY ROLLER (#2)
Wicked Trick continues to do his best impersonation of Cigar, as he has completely turned his career around since a switch to dirt. Linda Rice chose to bypass the Grade 3 Toboggan to instead target this starter allowance. The tradeoff in taking the path of least resistance is that he has to stretch out to a mile this time. He’s handled longer trips on turf, but the stretch-out is still a minor concern for a horse who seemed to wake up when turned back to sprint distances. He’s going to take plenty of money and there are plenty of viable alternatives in this field. Rob Atras has a pair of runners, the classier of which is Dynamax Prime. It’s been a little while since he’s won a race, but that is really the only knock against a horse who has otherwise been in fantastic form. His speed figures are among the best in the field and he’s getting significant class relief after meeting Mr. Buff in four of his last six starts. However, cutting back to a one-turn mile may not be ideal for him since he does seem to relish two turns. I prefer Atras’s other runner Heavy Roller. This 6-year-old is coming off a victory in the slop against a high-priced claiming group. These connections took quite a risk when they dipped in to claim him for $62,500 after he had previously been taken away from Atras for just $32,000. He delivered last time and he figures to hold that form since Rob Atras is 3 for 7 (43%, $2.69 ROI) second off the claim with last-out winners. Some may argue that he’s best with moisture in the ground, but he handles a fast track just as well and this one-turn mile distance figures to be right up his alley.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,6,7,8
Trifecta: 2 with 1,6,8 with 1,3,6,7,8

RACE 8: NEW YEAR’S WISH (#5)
Saguaro Row is the horse to beat in this Interborough as she drops out of a good second-place finish to the classy Spiced Perfection in the Grade 3 Go For Wand last time. While I acknowledge that she’s the class of this field, I’m somewhat concerned about the fact that she loses Joel Rosario for this race. Some riders just have the magic touch with certain horses and this mare is not an easy one to ride. Rosario has a way of getting this typically keen runner to shut off early and finish late, and her record with him aboard is quite telling. She’s 5-3-2-0 when Rosario pilots and 7-1-0-1 when ridden by anyone else. I am in no way intending to marginalize Jose Lezcano’s ample talents as a rider, but it should not be ignored that he’s getting aboard this sometimes difficult mare for the first time. The Pace Projector is predicting that Our Circle of Love will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner, and that may make her difficult to pass. However, I’m a little concerned about her getting the seven-furlong distance and I can’t overlook the fact that she ran considerably worse than New Year’s Wish in the Garland of Roses last time. New Year’s Wish probably should have won that race, but she blew the start, breaking about four lengths behind the field. Her gate antics have now been an issue twice in a row, and that’s a major concern. However, Linda Rice has said that she’s worked on her at the gate since that last race, and while she may not be completely over the problem, the only way that she can break worse than last time is if she utterly refuses to participate. As long as New Year’s Wish makes it out of the gate, she’s going to be pretty tough here based on that last performance. She’s always shown a great affinity for Aqueduct and seven furlongs is the perfect distance for her.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,7
Trifecta: 5 with 2,3 with 2,3,4,6,7

Picks & Plays for Sunday, January 19

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 2:   3 - 4 - 8 - 5
Race 3:   7 - 8 - 3 - 2
Race 4:   3 - 4 - 2 - 1A
Race 5:   1 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 6:   7 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 7:   2 - 7 - 1 - 6
Race 8:   2 - 1 - 11 - 9

PLAYS

RACE 1: ALPHADORA (#5)
Doll has been sent off at odds of even-money or less in three consecutive starts and she’s lost each time. Of greater concern is the fact that she has led the field into upper stretch on all of those occasions before allowing rivals to pass her in the final furlong. Clearly she’s lacking some will to win these races, but she nevertheless continues to earn speed figures that are superior to most of her rivals. I suppose it stands to reason that she’s eventually going to meet a field than can’t beat her, but is today that day? I find her hard to swallow at another short price. There are a few alternatives from which to choose and the one that I prefer is Alphadora. This filly’s 2019 campaign ended on a sour note, but she showed real ability in her first several starts. She was hindered by a significant rail bias when she made her debut in February, and immediately stepped forward with two strong performances thereafter. She really should have won on March 15, but a poorly judged ride cost her the victory. She was in over her head against the classy Newly Minted in a stakes thereafter before getting sent to the sidelines. This barn tends to fly under the radar, but they have sent out live runners on this circuit before and the bullet workout in late December is encouraging. She also gets a significant rider switch to Junior Alvarado in this return to the races. The other alternative to consider is Enough Love, who made her debut for Linda Rice two summers ago at Saratoga. She ran a typical first race for a barn that rarely has them ready for their debuts, but now she’s resurfacing 16 months later with Robert Falcone. One would assume she can do better now, but the time away is obviously a concern.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4
Trifecta: 5 with 3,4 with 1,3,4,6

RACE 2: WICKED HAPY (#3)
La Negrita is probably the horse to beat, but I’m not thrilled with the prospect of taking a shot price on a filly who has lost two straight races by scant margins at short prices. She was her own worst enemy two back when she seemingly had the race won but drifted out badly in the final furlong, costing herself the victory. Then last time her rider was perhaps overconfident as he placed her in behind horses early and forced her to rally in the stretch, something she hadn’t done before. Yet she got there at the end and once again couldn’t reel in a mediocre rival while finishing out in the center of the racetrack. One of the logical alternatives to her is second time starter My Sweet Kat. This filly goes out for Linda Rice, who specializes in improving second time starters. Yet this daughter of Strong Mandate is going to have to get quite a bit faster, since she didn’t show much ability at all in her initial run, finishing a well-beaten third in a very weak race for the level. I’ll use her, but I worry that she could get overbet in this spot. My top pick is Wicked Happy, who figures to go off at a more generous price. She’s taking a significant and needed class drop after facing considerably tougher rivals in both of her prior starts. She ran into eventual Grade 2 Demoiselle winner Lake Avenue in her debut and then last time found herself in an unusually tough maiden special weight event behind the promising Harvey’s Lil Goil. While she lost by a large margin last time, she was actually in contention until the quarter pole before getting eased late, so I think this slight turnback should work for her. Furthermore, apprentice rider Luis Cardenas appears to have a pretty light touch on the horses he rides and that style may suit this filly.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,8

RACE 7: ANOTHER BROAD (#2)
Bellera has run well in every race that she’s completed, only finishing out of the exacta when she lost her rider at the start of the Turnback the Alarm two back. She bounced right back from that disappointment to take down the Grade 3 Comely last time over the promising filly Arrifana while earning a respectable 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She’s proven that she relishes this demanding nine-furlong distance and she has the tactical speed to work out another good trip. I’m using her prominently, but I fear that she may be overbet based on raw results when others have run just as fast. For instance, her uncoupled stablemate Another Broad achieved a superior 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure when she finished a strong second in that Turnback the Alarm two back, and that number seems legitimate given that the classy Golden Award won the race. Another Broad disappointed in the Go For Wand last time, but she never had a fair chance that day given the shorter distance and slow pace. She figures to rebound here at a better price. Furthermore, the prospect of a wet track should only help her chances, since she showed a real affinity for wet surfaces early in her career. At a slightly bigger price, I would also want to include the wild card Entropia. She made her U.S. debut in the Long Island last time despite the fact that she hadn't been particularly competitive in her lone prior turf start in Argentina. She is a Group 1 winner in that country, but she accomplished that success going 1 1/4 miles on the dirt, so perhaps this surface switch will work out for her. Yet the jury is still out regarding her overall talent.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,7
Trifecta: 2 with 1,7 with ALL

Picks & Plays for Saturday, January 18

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 3 - 6 - 8
Race 2:   4 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 3:   3 - 6 - 7 - 2
Race 4:   5 - 4 - 7 - 6
Race 5:   6 - 10 - 2 - 4
Race 6:   7 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 7:   5 - 1 - 7 - 2
Race 8:   2 - 8 - 4 - 1
Race 9:   11 - 2 - 5 - 4

PLAYS

RACE 4: MILLS (#5)
Chief Know It All will win this race if he merely maintains his current form for Danny Gargan. However, there are some lingering questions around this runner. Why is he dropping down to this $12,500 claiming tag after dominating tougher rivals in his prior start at Churchill Downs? This seems like the sort of horse that could do quite well given the purse structure at Aqueduct over the winter, yet they’re basically giving him away in this spot. He was actually going to be claimed last time in Kentucky, but the transaction was voided following what was listed in the Equibase chart as a “positive test.” This once classy runner clearly has some issues, and I’m just not totally convinced that he’s going to maintain the form we saw last fall in this return to the NYRA circuit. If he fails to show up, this race gets far more confusing. I don’t particularly like the obvious alternative Daddy D T. While this Rudy Rodriguez trainee has earned plenty of competitive speed figures in the past, he hasn’t run particularly well in either start since the layoff and it seems unlikely that the stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles will suit him. I’d rather get a bit more creative if trying to beat the favorite, so I’m taking a shot with Mills. I understand that there’s a major issue with this gelding: he doesn’t win. Yet, he’s also been placed in spots that are a bit too tough for him for the majority of the past year. This runner has probably needed some class relief for a long time, but his connections were content to let him pick up some minor checks along the way. Now that he’s a 10-year-old, they’re dropping him down to the level at which he can be competitive. Despite the drastic drop, it’s not as if his recent form has tailed off that much, as he’s continued to earn speed figures that put him in the mix against this field. He relishes two turns so I trust him to get this 9-furlong distance more than most. I normally don’t like to endorse horses who haven’t won in over two years, but he’s going to be a generous price because of that and I believe he actually merits respect here.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 4,6,7
Trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with ALL

RACE 5: COOLBOY (#6)
It’s difficult to find the center of this race since the major contenders are quite closely matched. Potential favorite Seven Is Heaven goes out for the powerful Linda Rice barn and just missed when outrun in the late stages by fellow closer Vicar’s Legend in a similar spot last time. However, he got a pretty good trip that day in a race where the pace fell apart and he’s meeting a slightly tougher field this time. Bustin Hoffman would be tough if able to run back to his performance two back when he was racing first off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. He crossed the wire first that day but was justifiably disqualified for deep stretch interference. He disappointed against open company last time, but he’s back at the right class level now and has the tactical speed to work out a decent trip. I’m using both, but this is a competitive field where I think we can get a bit more creative. My top pick is Coolboy, who might be in the best form of anyone in this field right now. That 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned for his last start is clearly the best number in this race and he achieved it the hard way, carving out very fast fractions on a clear lead before getting cut down by the superior Big Engine late. I loved the way this colt battled back when passed last time and I think he’s going to be tough if he repeats that performance. Some may question where that race came from, but he had run deceptively well in his prior starts, including in his turf start three back when he overcame a track bias to be fourth. Furthermore, although the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, no one is quick enough to go with Coolboy early and he could just run them off their feet.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,8,10

RACE 7: VIOLENT POINT (#5)
Fierce Lady figures to be a prohibitive favorite in this spot as she returns following a brief layoff. While she owns a set of speed figures that make her the horse to beat, she’s a filly who came out ready to fire early in her 2-year-old season and her form has subtly but steadily declined in each start since then. Her new off-the-pace running style has worked when she’s drawn outside post positions in each of her last two starts, but she could find it more difficult to close from behind breaking from the rail this time. I’m inclined to try and beat her, but all of the logical alternatives in this race come with flaws of their own. Big Q would be the biggest threat if able to run back to her impressive score in the Key Cents two back, but you have to wonder where that effort came from given her surrounding form. We cashed on A Freud of Mama when she took to dirt last time, winning that $500,000 stakes as a ridiculous overlay. While she may have appreciated the muddy, sealed track, she could get that kind of surface again with rain and snow in the forecast on Saturday. Originally, I had tabbed Ancient Brown as my preferred alternative to these runners, but she will instead participate in an optional claiming race on Monday. Therefore, after reevaluating the options, I'm taking a shot with Violent Point. This Mark Casse trainee has to get a little faster to beat this field based on her last performance, but I think she has some things working in her favor. She has the speed to be forwardly placed from the start in a race that features a murky pace scenario. Fierce Lady is shown to be in front by the Pace Projector, but she may not be ridden that way. Violent Point was able to get to the lead last time and was game when just barely losing to a green Playtone. That was over a dry strip and she should appreciate any precipitation that falls during the day at Aqueduct as she ran one of her best races over a muddy, sealed surface in her second start at Saratoga.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,7,8

RACE 8: AMERICAN ANTHEM (#2)
The classy Mind Control was a Grade 1 winner at ages 2 and 3 and he seeks to regain his position at the top of the sprint division as he returns in this Grade 3 Toboggan. He has the speed figures to back up that impressive résumé, earning a 116 TimeformUS Speed Figures in winning the H. Allen Jerkens and a 122 when taking down the Bay Shore over this course and distance last April. He got a planned layoff following his Grade 1 triumph last summer, and he has apparently been training well for his return. The outside draw should suit him and his tactical speed should play very well in his largely paceless affair. He’s the horse to beat, but I’m always reticent to accept a short price on runners returning from layoffs like this, especially for a barn that hasn’t had much success with this move. His main rival is clearly American Anthem. It’s been a bumpy road for this horse since his successful 3-year-old season, which saw him win the Grade 2 Woody Stephens and place in a pair of Grade 1 events. He achieved modest success during an abbreviated 4-year-old campaign, but it’s been difficult for him to get back to that level since. Yet now makes his second consecutive start for a new trainer, this time going out for Danny Gargan. He disappointed when last seen at Keeneland, but he didn’t get an ideal trip that day, as he was shuffled back early and forced down inside for the stretch drive, which probably wasn’t the place to be. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead and he has the tactical speed to be in front of these early. I’m inclined to take an optimistic view despite some lingering questions about his form. I would also include runners like Sunny Ridge, Nicodemus, and T Loves a Fight, but all may be compromised by a lack of pace in this race. Of those, Nicodemus is the one who scares me most since his best efforts clearly make him good enough to beat this field and Linda Rice isn’t usually this aggressive off a layoff.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5,8
Trifecta: 2 with 4,8 with 1,4,5,7,8

Picks & Plays for Friday, January 17

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 2:   5 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 3:   4 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 4:   5 - 6 - 1 - 3
Race 5:   4 - 8 - 3 - 5
Race 6:   8 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 7:   6 - 4 - 2 - 8
Race 8:   8 - 10 - 1 - 2

PLAYS

RACE 2: COUNTABLE (#5)
Sadie Lady’s first start off the trainer change to Rob Atras was pretty disappointing, but she basically lost all chance at the start. She found herself back in last after breaking awkwardly and was just never in position to be competitive thereafter. She had a legitimate excuse that day, and I wouldn’t hold her last turf race against her either, since she got embroiled in a ridiculously fast pace. Sadie Lady’s prior form was solid, and while she may be a bit better on turf, she’s run competitive speed figures on dirt before. Some may perceive her main rival to be Cape Cod Diva off her victory at the N2L claiming level last month. Yet, that was a weak field and her main rival Wisconsin Night returned to bomb as the odds-on choice next time. While that last race may suggest that she should have been running on dirt all along, she still has to prove herself against a legitimate field of dirt horses. My top pick is Countable as she makes her second start off the layoff. She wasn’t exactly beating the toughest field at Finger Lakes last time, but she was game to earn the victory in a fight to the finish. Prior to that she had achieved some respectable results in her first few dirt sprint attempts at Aqueduct, and has some foundation to build upon that form now. Notably, Linda Rice is 8 for 15 (53%, $3.12 ROI) with last-out winners making their second start after layoffs of 120 to 240 days in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. Additionally, Rice has fantastic statistics with blinker additions in general. There are plenty of reasons to expect Countable will improve here and she figures to offer fair value.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4,6
Trifecta: 3,5 with 3,5 with ALL

RACE 3: CREATIVE STYLE (#4)
Rudy Rodriguez will only start half of the entry as Carthon has been withdrawn. The remaining half Kumar has shown more of a preference for turf at this point in his career and was fairly disappointing when always outrun at the starter allowance level last time. Perhaps he’ll appreciate the drop in class, but he needs to run a bit faster. I’d be interested in looking for alternatives, and the most logical of those appear to be Hizaam and Walkoff. The former drops in class as he makes his second start off the claim for Linda Rice after being hindered by a speed-favoring sloppy track last time. He has a right to do better and is perhaps more trustworthy than Walkoff, who hasn’t been seen since last summer and was tailing off at that time. I want to go in a slightly different direction, so my top selection is Creative Style. This gelding has been knocking heads against much tougher company at the N1X level, and it’s frankly no disgrace having lost to rivals like Payne, Free Enterprise, and Patagonia. Some may perceive his 15-length loss last time as a step in the wrong direction, but he didn’t have to love his first spin over a sloppy track and 9 furlongs is probably too far for him anyway. The turnback should suit him and this is the right class level.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,6

RACE 6: SEVEN PLUS SEVEN (#8)
Cavaradossi finally broke out of the maiden ranks last time with a dominant victory in the slop. While a repeat of that performance may give him a chance to pull off back-to-back victories, he is undoubtedly facing a tougher field in his first start against winners. The Rob Atras barn seems to have cooled off a bit after a strong couple of weeks. Furthermore, this gelding may find himself in the position to have to pass horses again after contesting a very slow pace when he won last time. Mertkan Kantarmaci has a pair of contenders. Dr. Devera’s Way has run the faster races recently, but he seemed to relish wet tracks during the fall and his form may be tailing off after a disappointing effort in November. Our Stormin Norman seems more dangerous as he makes his first start off the claim for this barn. He’s not exactly a winning type, having achieved just a single victory in 16 starts, but he has run well in each of his last two appearances. He made a premature move before fading two back and then was hindered by a slightly speed-favoring surface here 6 days ago. I’ll use him, but my top pick is Seven Plus Seven. This New York-bred tried N1X allowance company in his first start against winners last time and was just in a bit too tough. He also didn’t get an ideal trip that day, as he was contesting a fast pace while chasing inside of rivals in a race that was ultimately dominated by a pair of closers. This 4-year-old ran legitimate well to break his maiden two back when he was allowed to control the pace, and he could find himself in a similar situation here. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be clearly in front early in a situation favoring the leader, which should make him very dangerous now that he’s dropping to a more appropriate class level.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,4,5,7
Trifecta: 8 with 5,7 with 3,4,5,7

RACE 8: ASSAULT AND PEPPER (#8)
There’s not much form to analyze in this relatively weak maiden-claiming event. I suppose the horse to beat is Be Magic, who makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice while dropping in class to compete for the lowest tag of his career. This filly’s form isn’t exactly inspiring, but Rice knows how to win in this situation. Over the past 5 years, she is 15 for 36 (42%, $2.44 ROI) first off the claim with maidens on the dirt. I’ll use her prominently, but she’s not a favorite that is to be feared. Horses like Big Cyn and Empress Luciana have posted speed figures that put them in the mix, but they’ve also had their fair share of chances and haven’t shown much ability. I would rather go for a lightly raced contender with a bit more upside, so my top selection is second time starter Assault and Pepper. This filly finished far back in her debut, but she actually had a far more adventurous trip than her short running line comment conveys. She broke with the field and was racing up close to the leaders through the opening quarter mile before she steadily got shuffled back heading to the half-mile pole. At that point, for whatever reason, Assault and Pepper totally disengaged from the race and abruptly plummeted to the back of the pack as if she was about to be eased. Yet, rather than pulling her up, Sammy Camacho steered her to the outside around the kickback and she surprisingly got back into the race, rallying mildly passed a few stragglers in the stretch. It was the kind of performance that suggests we probably didn’t see the best that she had to offer that day. Now Rudy Rodriguez adds blinkers for her second start, and she gets a rider upgrade to Reylu Gutierrez, all signs that we should see a more focused effort out of her.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,6,10

Picks & Plays for Sunday, January 12

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 2 - 7 - 4
Race 2:   5 - 6 - 3
Race 3:   6 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 4:   1 - 5 - 9 - 10
Race 5:   6 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 6:   7 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 7:   5 - 4 - 3
Race 8:   4 - 2 - 5 - 8

PLAYS

RACE 3: STREET TRUST (#6)
With the scratch of Royal Albert Hall, Shalako figures to inherit the favorite's role. He moves up in class after beating $12,500 claimers last month. While he does have past speed figures that would make him quite formidable in this race, it’s been a struggle for him to get back into form over the past several months. Some might view it as a positive sign that Rudy Rodriguez displays confidence with this class move, but he is just 4 for 25 (16%, $0.77 ROI) with last-out winners moving up in claiming price by 50 percent or more on dirt over the past five years. I want to go in a different direction, so I’m taking a shot with Street Trust second off the claim for Ray Handal. This gelding didn’t lift a hoof last time at Parx, but I’m hoping that was due to the quirky surface there, which seemed to be particularly dead on Dec. 1. Street Trust was not the only horse to perform below expectations in that race, and at least one other notable contender returned out of that spot to immediately rebound with a much faster performance. Street Trust had consistently run competitive speed figures prior to last time, and he’s also a horse who has shown a real affinity for this 1 1/8-mile distance. As long as he gets a little pace to close into, he should be charging late.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4

RACE 4: MICROMILLION (#1)
I’m Fine’s Ellis Park debut was fairly eventful, as she broke about two lengths behind the field, was hustled up into mid-pack position early, got shuffled back on the far turn, and then came again in the lane despite having to alter course. There is obviously some ability here, but the question is whether she can transfer that form to a new barn and make the transition to dirt. Both of her siblings to race showed a preference for turf, but her second dam Caressing is a dirt stakes winner and she produced Travers winner West Coast. Surface questions aside, I’m Fine’s obvious natural ability makes her the horse to beat, but I am somewhat concerned about how cold this barn has been over the past two months. My top pick is one of two Todd Pletcher runners in this field. Micromillion returns from an extended layoff and stretches out for the first time. It’s hard to know what to make of her 2-year-old form, since she contested a couple of fairly weak early season races that haven’t produced much in terms of quality. On the other hand, her pedigree says she would have wanted no part of those sprint distances. She’s by dirt marathoner Micromanage, a stakes winner at distances ranging from one mile and 70 yards to 1 3/4 miles. Her dam’s only win came at seven furlongs, but she handled routes and the dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 Wood Memorial winner Nobiz Like Shobiz. Notably, over the past five years Pletcher is 6 for 11 (55%, $3.91 ROI) with maidens coming off layoffs of 180 days or more trying a route for the first time on dirt.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,6,9,10
Trifecta: 1,5 with 1,5 with 3,6,8,9,10

RACE 5: QUIETUDE (#6)
I respect both of the favorites in this race. Collegeville Girl would be pretty tough for this field to handle if she runs back to her victory at Belmont on Oct. 25, but she was surprisingly dull when she returned at Aqueduct last time, so there are definitely some concerns about her reliability. Prairie Fire figures to attract slightly more support after beating starter-allowance foes just last week. She won that race on relatively short rest, and now returns off a similarly short break to contest this race. Some may be concerned about that aggressive schedule, but Linda Rice has fantastic statistics in this situation. Over the past five years, Rice is 11 for 23 (48%, $3.15 ROI) with horses returning in one to nine days in dirt sprints, and she’s 5 for 9 when those runners are coming off wins. It’s reasonable to expect that Prairie Fire will maintain her form, but she will have to prove she can rally from farther back here, since this race contains more speed than she encountered last time. That was an issue two starts back when she found herself badly outrun in the early stages of that Dec. 28 race at this level. She only finished a length ahead of fellow closer Quietude that day, and I thought the Ribaudo trainee actually had the tougher trip. Quietude was guided all the way back to last in that 13-horse field, and was placed in a tight spot inside of Prairie Fire on the far turn. Coming to the quarter pole, both fillies weren’t in ideal spots to make up ground, but I thought Quietude had slightly more difficulty getting out from in behind tiring runners. All things considered, she did well to pass over half the field that day and I expect a better effort this time.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3,8
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2 with 1,2,3,8,9,10

RACE 7: SCILLY CAY (#5)
Dream Bigger figures to off as a prohibitive favorite once again, and for good reason. While he’s only won twice in five starts, he’s had legitimate excuses on a couple of occasions. He had the misfortune of running into the eventual Grade 1 winner Tiz the Law in his debut at Saratoga, and then last time he was undoubtedly best when surviving a fast pace to just miss in that $500,000 New York Stallion Series Stakes. He’s earned TimeformUS Speed Figures of 103 and above in all five career starts, and only one of his rivals, Harris Bay, has ever earned a figure in that range in their prior starts. If this Rudy Rodriguez trainee maintains his form, he’s going to be difficult to beat. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, and the scenario figures to benefit Dream Bigger, who should find himself in a controlling position after the scratch of Convict. Harris Bay is one alternative to consider as he attempts to rebound to the form that carried him to a debut victory over the favorite. However, his most recent outing in the Notebook was quite disappointing. My top pick is Scilly Cay, who goes out for the powerful Linda Rice barn. This colt was a typical Rice firster in Saratoga, as he apparently needed that start. He came back with an improved performance off a brief layoff at Belmont and then took a giant step forward when stepped up against stakes company last time in the Notebook. That race was run during a time when horses attempting to rally through kickback appeared to be at a disadvantage, yet Scilly Cay gamely came through inside at the quarter pole and made a strong rally through the stretch in a race where few others made up ground. He has to continue that forward progression to have a chance at beating Dream Bigger this time, but his worktab coming into this race would appear to suggest that he’s doing well.

Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 3,4

RACE 8: KILMARKNOCK (#4)
There are many ways to go in this perplexing finale. First you have to decide when you want to focus on runners with experience or first time starters. I’m gravitating more towards runners in the former group, as I believe a number of them have a right to improve in this spot. Bronze Lion figures to attract some support after getting bet down to 5-1 against maiden special weight company in his debut. He didn’t run well at all that day, but he did find himself in against an unusually strong field for the level. Over the past 5 years, the Asmussen barn is 3 for 9 (33%, $3.00 ROI) with second time starters dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company in dirt sprints at Aqueduct and Belmont, so he has a right to step forward. Future Book also gets class relief, but I would have liked to see him show some more signs of life in his second start last time. My top pick is a runner who has already raced for this maiden claiming tag. Kilmarknock seems like a good candidate to step forward in his second career start. He did not get a great trip first time out, as he found himself in tight quarters getting shuffled back through the first quarter mile of his foggy debut. Considering that early trouble, he did well to reengage in chasing the leaders on the turn before staying on evenly in the stretch. Trainer Rob Falcone does many things well, but he has had no success with first time starters, so it stands to reason that a youngster in his barn can improve with experience. As for the first time starters, Wesworld seems like the most dangerous as he ships in from Turfway Park for Wesley Ward. This runner has a pedigree to be quick, though it seems like more turf breeding than anything. Ward does better with his 2-year-olds, but he can certainly win with a 3-year-old in this situation. Mo Lightning and Catzalionbythetale have better pedigrees for these conditions, but that might not be a positive since they’re still debuting for the $40,000 tag.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,5,7,8

Picks & Plays for Saturday, January 11

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 2:   5 - 1 - 7 - 2
Race 3:   6 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 4:   2 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 5:   3 - 7 - 9 - 2
Race 6:   1 - 6 - 2 - 7
Race 7:   5 - 8 - 7 - 2
Race 8:   6 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 9:   2 - 10 - 1 - 9

PLAYS

RACE 3: WAR STOPPER (#6)
In what amounts to an unusually weak race for this level, a horse like Wild Cat West has to be taken very seriously. He didn’t show much speed in his debut at Keeneland, but he did stay on well in the lane, and now he’s switching into the powerful Jason Servis barn off a private purchase. Servis is 7 for 19 (37%, $2.30 ROI) first off a trainer switch with maidens on the dirt over 5 years. There is pedigree for this colt to be a runner, since his dam is out of the Grade 2-placed router Sweet Lips. If he takes any kind of step forward, he’s going to be a handful here. Yet I’m trying to beat him with War Stopper. Some might say that the switch to dirt last time yielded basically the same result as before. Though, there are some reasons to be optimistic about his chances here. He was attempting to rally from the back of the pack on Cigar Mile day, when speed seemed to have a slight advantage. Turthermore, there’s no question that he was meeting a significantly tougher field that day and will appreciate this class relief. The 85 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned last time is the highest in this field, and he has a right to do better now in this softer spot. Don’t be surprised to see a bit more speed out of him with the blinkers added. The intriguing new face in this line-up is the first time starter First Line. This gelding has apparently been working well for his debut and does have some pedigree to be a runner. His connections are clearly high on him, but it's still a tall order to win going a mile first time out.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,5,7

RACE 6: READY TO ESCAPE (#1)
With Blindwillie McTell coming out of this race, the focus is now on a pair of horses exiting another race at this level on Dec. 14. Shamrocked finished ahead of Ready to Escape that day, but I think their trips had much to do with that. Sharmocked was able to get to his preferred position on the front end as Ready to Escape was rated from the start by Benjy Hernandez despite breaking well. Ready to Escape does best when he’s able to flaunt his early speed, so he was never really in a position to put forth a top effort last time. He should be fitter now making his second start off the layoff and new rider Declan Carroll would be wise to use his speed from this rail draw. If this horse gets back to his pair of races prior to the break, especially when he earned that 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure at Saratoga, the rest of these may be running for second. Shamrocked has a chance as well, but I think some others have a higher ceiling. The other horse to use prominently is Cerretalto, who would be a serious factor if able to run back to his impressive victory against New York-breds last time. He typically shows up with strong efforts at Aqueduct and nowhere else. Yet I haven't seen him put forth a top effort against the caliber of horses that he's facing here, and consistency is an issue for a runner who struggles to put together back-to-back winning efforts.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,6
Trifecta: 1 with 2,6 with 2,4,6,7

RACE 7: BEBE BANKER (#5)
It’s difficult to find the focal point of this race. Playwright may attract some support due to his recent set of competitive speed figures, but he’s never been particularly formidable at this N1X state-bred allowance level in the past. His trainer, Danny Gargan, has been a little quiet so far this winter. Furthermore, when this horse has picked up minor checks in his last few starts he was doing so against weaker fields than the one he meets here. Yet, once you get past him things are awfully muddled. I’m not particularly optimistic about the prospects of Big Thicket repeating his last race, though I suppose that speed figure makes him the horse to beat here. Tiergan makes some sense as he returns from an extended layoff. He showed promise through the spring and summer last year and could be a factor here if he has progressed during the time away. He was always a big, goofy kind of horse who gave the impression that he might do better with a little added maturity. Some might try to make a case for Whistling Birds, who has run well against New York-breds in the past. However, I haven’t been thrilled with his recent losses against softer fields at Parx. Therefore, I’m going in a different direction with Bebe Banker. I tried this horse first off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez last time, not expecting that the track would still be as wet as it was. Bebe Banker has never been particularly fond of wet tracks and seems particularly compromised on ones of the sealed, sloppy variety. All things considered, he actually didn’t run that badly last time and seems like a candidate to take a significant step forward second off the claim for Rudy. After all, he has the tactical speed to work out a favorable trip here and this one-mile distance is more suitable for him.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,7,8,10

RACE 8: ARTHUR’S HOPE (#6)
I don’t have major knocks against the favorites in this race. My Boy Tate made a successful return from a 13-month layoff last time to get the job done over a couple of today’s rivals. A repeat of that effort may put him in the winner’s circle again, but he’s going to be a shorter price this time and you can argue that some of those who he’ll be facing have improved in the interim. That certainly seems to be true of T Loves a Fight, who ran what was arguably the best race of his tumultuous career last time when finishing third in the Gravesend. He probably would have finished closer at the end had Dylan Davis been able to get him off the rail a bit sooner in the stretch. This 6-year-old handles the 7- furlong distance without issue and seems adaptable to almost any pace scenario. I view him as a serious rival to My Boy Tate, and he’s going to be a better price. I’d also consider The Caretaker, who is attempting to come right back with another huge effort just 13 days after winning an allowance race here at the same distance. He was very impressive that day, but he’s not going to get much pace to close into here and it remains to be seen if he can duplicate that form against tougher company. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, and that figures to make my top pick Arthur’s Hope difficult to pass. He’s just the only confirmed front-runner in this field and he’s also a horse who has historically done best when able to attain a forward position. He did that two back against My Boy Tate, but found himself contesting a fast pace that fell apart. Then last time he was simply outrun in the early going. Prior to returning from the layoff, he had earned some of the fastest TimeformUS Speed Figure in this field, and I think he might be able to get back to that form with a favorable trip.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,5,7
Trifecta: 6 with 3,5,7 with 1,2,3,5,7

Picks & Plays for Friday, January 10

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 2:   1 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 3:   1 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 4:   1 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 5:   7 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 6:   2 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 7:   6 - 5 - 8 - 7
Race 8:   1 - 7 - 4 - 3

PLAYS

RACE 2: TIZ EPIC (#1)
Cruising Strong is likely to be the choice of many due to her upward-trending speed figures and general consistency. She’s stepping out of New York-bred company for the first time, but those state-bred maiden claimers can often draw tougher fields than their open counterparts, so I don’t view that as a major negative. She will be around at the finish here with a similar effort to her maiden score, but it’s not as if she has much, if any, margin for error. I’d use her, but she seems like a strong candidate to be an underlay. I slightly prefer main rival Bodes Sunset. If this filly merely repeats the 82 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned in her debut, she’s going to be a handful. Both the runner-up and third-place finisher validated the form but returning to earn similar figures in their subsequent starts. However, that performance was achieved around two turns at Charles Town and she hasn’t been seen in 76 days since then. This barn isn't known for success with youngsters, but she drew a great post and seems to be spotted realistically. She’ll definitely be on my tickets, but my top pick is the turnback Tiz Epic. Her first start off the claim for Linda Rice was a disaster, but she had some things working against her that day. She was asked to face males while stretching out to a route distance over a surface she had never encountered before. She faded abruptly as if she was going to be eased on the turn before coming on again mildly in the lane. Rice’s barn has been firing on all cylinders lately and she is 7 for 15 (47%, $5.26 ROI) when adding blinkers going from a route to sprint on the dirt over 5 years. This filly seemed more comfortable with sprint distances in her first two starts and should appreciate the turnback.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,6
Trifecta: 1 with 3,6 with ALL

RACE 5: MIRABELL MEI (#7)
Both Persisto and Indawin were no match for impressive winner Harvey’s Lil Goil last time. Obviously, Persisto ran the better race as she briefly tried to go with the winner before settling for second, some 4 lengths ahead of Indawin. These two finished in a photo two back, but I wouldn’t give either one undue credit for surviving an apparent fast pace that day as all of the listed fractions for that Nov. 15 race, some hand-timed, are unfortunately incorrect and the speed figures account for that (an accurate clocking is closer to 23.5, 47.1, 1:13.4, and 1:41.2). I slightly prefer Persisto of this pair, but neither one really excites me at short prices. Some may gravitate towards the stretching-out Halo City and there are some things to like about her. However, my top pick is the surface switcher Mirabell Mei. This chestnut filly barely attracted any tote support when she made her debut at Saratoga, but she ran on well enough to split the field that day. She hasn’t been seen for a while since then, but it’s no great surprise to see her switching to dirt upon return. Palace Malice has shown versatility as a sire and her damside pedigree is primarily dirt-oriented, as her dam is a 3/4-sister to multiple graded-stakes winning router and $2 million-earner Golden Missile. John Terranova is 9 for 51 (18%, $2.56 ROI) with maidens switching from turf to dirt over 5 years. I expect to see an improved performance in her second start.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,6

RACE 6: FORGOTTEN HERO (#2)
Puffery and Bertranda may vie for favoritism after each finished second at this level in her most recent start. Bertranda’s runner-up finish last time came to Cash Offer, who returned to win the La Verdad Stakes in an upset here last weekend, and she also finished 3 lengths ahead of Puffery in the process. Puffery ran back out of that race just 9 days later to improve in the mud, checking in three-quarters of a length behind the classy Hay Field. Both are contenders based on that form. I do prefer Bertranda, but she was a ridiculous overlay at 28-1 last time and is going to be a fraction of that price here. I also wouldn’t completely dismiss Archumybaby, who returns in just 9 days. She’s moving up in class off the claim and does need to get a bit faster, but she loves to win races and rarely surrenders in a duel to the wire. Yet I want to look outside the box for my top selection, so I’m taking a shot with the speedy Forgotten Hero. This filly had been campaigned primarily on turf over the course of last year, but she gave her connections some home for a successful winter stint on dirt in her most recent start. While she finished behind Bertranda and Puffery on Dec. 6, she actually ran a bit better than it seems. Forgotten Hero didn’t get away from the gate as swiftly as usual after a slight stumble and her rider appeared as he if was going to rate her from there. Yet Forgotten Hero wanted no part of that and dragged Hernandez up to the lead, ultimately running away from Bertranda around the turn before those early exertions took their toll in the lane. It was by far the best dirt race that she’s run since she won a stakes here as a 2-year-old, and she’s since come back with two encouraging workouts. I also like that the connections are making a switch to Reylu Gutierrez, who will try to ration this filly’s speed out front.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4,5
Trifecta: 2 with 3,5 with 1,3,4,5,6

RACE 7: JUMP FOR JOY (#6)
My Roxy Girl would be considered the horse to beat based on her efforts from September and October, but I think you have to be a little concerned about her current form. She ran well to be third in the New York Stallion Series Stakes on Nov. 10. Yet Linda Rice then wheeled her back quickly and she disappointed as the 4-5 favorite less than two weeks later. While she didn’t receive such heavy tote support in her lone appearance since then, she did nothing to renew confidence, as she never picked up the pace and was last across the wire. This drop back into starter allowance company does represent a drop in class, but she’s probably not going to win unless she rebounds to a better effort. Carrizo makes some sense as an alternative. She also has her fair share of consistency issues, but she put forth one of her better performances last time when checking in second behind stablemate Slimey. She benefited from a moderate pace that day, but she figures to get another favorable setup here, as she shouldn’t be sitting that far off the pace again. I prefer these fillies dropping out of allowance company to the claimers attempting to move up in class, even though one of those, Miss Jak, is making her first start off the claim for the streaking Rob Atras barn. Along those lines, I want to take a shot with Jump for Joy. Like the two aforementioned contenders, she’s also getting some class relief as she drops out of a tougher optional claiming event at Parx. She was dismissed at 9-1 that day for a reason, as winner Hey Mamaluke is a terror out of town, having finished in the exacta in 10 of her 12 career starts while earning speed figures that would make her the clear favorite in this race. The runner-up from that last race, Dixie Serenade, also has credentials, having previously won the Grade 3 Victory Ride at Belmont in 2018. I can’t fault Jump for Joy for fading behind that pair of rivals that day, and the 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure she earned suggests that she didn’t even run that badly in defeat. Prior to that, she had run well enough to beat this field when second to My Roxy Girl at Belmont. I think she’ll have the advantage over that foe this time, since the Pace Projector is predicting that she will be clearly in front in a situation favoring the early leader.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 5,7,8
Trifecta: 6 with 5,8 with 4,5,7,8