Aqueduct TimeformUS Race Analysis

Picks & Plays for Sunday, April 18

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 2:   5 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 3:   8 - 4 - 9 - 2
Race 4:   7 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 5:   3 - 8 - 1A - 2
Race 6:   5 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 7:   1 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 8:   5 - 2 - 1 - 8
Race 9:   1 - 3 - 11 - 8

PLAYS

RACE 2: SILKY BLUE (#5)
Gotta Go Mo is the horse to beat as she returns to New York for John Kimmel after making her last 5 career starts at Gulfstream. She took off most of the NYRA season last year after breaking her maiden at Gulfsream in April. She returned this year in an open company allowance race down in Florida and ran well to make it two in a row. She stalked a quick pace and took over in upper stretch, drawing off to win with authority. She’s obviously trained well since then, registering a series of quick workous down at Palm Meadows. She figures to be tough for these to handle as she moves back into New York-bred company, though she will have to negotiate 6 furlongs. She may be the speed of the speed, but she will have to face some pressure from the likes of Violent Point and Doll. I’m hoping that the early fractions are quick enough to setup the late run of Silky Blue. This filly ran well in most of her turf starts last year, maintaining strong form against winners after breaking her maiden at odds of 18-1 last June. She won off a layoff that day, so she should be ready following a freshening here. While her lone prior start at this level last November resulted in a fourth-place finish, she was compromised by a wide trip on a day when the rail was a significant advantage. She also probably doesn’t want to go that far, and should appreciate this turnback to 6 furlongs. She’s my top pick, and I’d use her with the aforementioned favorite, as well as the speedy Violent Point and fellow closer Dancingwthdaffodls.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 2,5 with 2,5 with 1,6,7,8

RACE 5: SANCTUARY CITY (#3)
Mo Maverick would have been the stronger half of the Michael Dubb entry, but his stablemate Discretionary Marq is still a contender in his own right. He once was competitive at this level in 2019, and his two efforts since the claim by Kelly Breen are solid enough. He never had a chance last time after getting squeezed back at he start and getting caught behind a wall of horses in the stretch. Plus, he also has good tactical speed. I’m concerned that he won’t offer sufficient value as the former half of the entry, but I won’t be surprised when he runs well. Big Package is the logical alternative as he returns from a layoff for Dave Donk. He showed real ability last year once they switched him back to turf, unleashing impressive late kicks to win an N1X allowance and just miss at this level in September. However, he has to overcome a layoff and lack of pace, and he figures to take more money with Irad Ortiz riding. I prefer Sanctuary City as an alternative. While most of this runner’s recent starts have come over longer distances, he has been successful sprinting in the past. He displayed a nice turn of foot when he won going this distance at Belmont last year, and he subsequently improved over the summer and fall. He has a right to move forward in his 4-year-old debut, and I think Kendrick Carmouche will take advantage of what tactical speed he does possess.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,8

RACE 8: OYSTER BOX (#5)
The uncoupled Chad Brown pair of Fluffy Socks and Ingrassia are likely to vie for favoritism in this competitive Memories of Silver. They faced off last fall in the Chelsey Flower at Belmont, which was run over a boggy turf course. Ingrassia just got the better of her stablemate that day, as Fluffy Socks drifted out under Irad Ortiz in upper stretch before just losing in a duel to the wire. Both handled the difficult conditions without issue, yet also have shown strong form on firmer turf. Ingrassia seemingly possesses more upside in just her fourth career start. She displayed a nice turn of foot to break her maiden in her debut at Saratoga and then didn’t get the best trip behind Breeders’ Cup winner Aunt Pearl in the Jessamine. I slightly prefer her to Fluffy Socks, who got a great ride from Irad when she won the Jimmy Durante in her juvenile finale. They both make plenty of sense, but I prefer a runner with more recency. Oyster Box may be getting some minor class relief after facing a solid field in the Grade 3 Florida Oaks last time. She was outrun in the early stages of that race and couldn’t go with winner Domain Expertise when that one launced her move on the far turn. Yet she stayed on willingly in the stretch and was finishing nicely at the end. That race was flattered when runner-up Jouster returned to win the Grade 3 Appalachian at Keeneland. While Oyster Box was beating weaker company in her first couple of starts, I liked the way she won each of those races, getting some education under her belt. I think she can now move forward again, especially given her stamina-oriented pedigree. She figures to offer better value than the Chad Brown pair. I also wouldn’t totally discount the European import Bubbles on Ice. Christophe Clement has poor numbers with foreign shippers, but this filly showed some talent in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud last fall.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,8
Trifecta: 5 with 1,2 with 1,2,4,8

RACE 9: INVETERATE (#1)
This finale is a real puzzle. The horse to beat is clearly Summer At the Spa, but she’s not the easiest favorite to trust off a poor performance in her 2020 finale. Perhaps she just didn’t care for the December turf course at Aqueduct, but you could also argue that her form had tailed off since her encouraging return last summer. The fact that she’s coming back for a tag rather than trying N1X company again is perhaps not a good sign. I’m using her, but I think there are more interesting players at bigger prices. I’m not particularly interested in others who figure to take money, like slow last-out maiden winners Lucky Latkes and You’re Doing Fine, or dirt horse Bay Jewel. I’d rather look to runners who have some back class on turf. One of those is Ava K’s Girl, who tried this level in her final start of last year. She rebounded second off the switch to Carlos Martin, making a solid late run to get up for second while earning a competitive speed figure. I also think Appreciate makes some sense as she turns back to sprinting on turf, something that she once did successful. The one drawback with her is her 1 for 26 career record on turf. My top pick, due primarily to the likely generous price, is Inveterate. This filly’s recent form is obviously poor. Yet I want to give her one more chance switching back to turf. She took to this surface well in her first start over it as a 2-year-old, finishing a solid third after setting the pace. Her two subsequent turf efforts were poor, but she had excuses each time, getting a wide trip in 2019 before she was overmatched going too far last year. I’m intrigued by this turnback to sprinting on grass, and she could be forwardly placed under Luis Cardenas.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,8,11

Picks & Plays for Saturday, April 17

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 2:   9 - 2 - 3 - 8
Race 3:   1 - 9 - 4 - 5
Race 4:   6 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 5:   2 - 6 - 9 - 4
Race 6:   3 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 7:   4 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 8:   1 - 4 - 7 - 5
Race 9:   13 - 5 - 6 - 11

PLAYS

RACE 3: DR. BLUTE (#1)
City Mischief could go favored in this New York-bred optional claimer after beating open company in his maiden score. He was bounced around between horses following a crowded start, but got a very good trip thereafter, working his way into the clear for the stretch drive. This son of Into Mischief has an unusual action, running with his front legs splayed apart as he extends his stride. Though, that apparent flaw hasn't hindered him much yet. The bigger issue for me is that a few runbacks from that Mar. 6 race have fared poorly in subsequent starts, calling into question the legitimacy of the speed figure. I prefer some others who figure to be better prices. I think the horse to beat is actually Dancing Buck. He only made one prior turf start in his debut last fall and it was a strong effort. He stalked a fast pace and made an early move to take over in upper stretch before getting run down by the talented Perfect Munnings. This gelding was hardly disgraced when he switched surfaces this winter, but he’s by turf sire War Dancer and his dam earned all 4 of her career victories on grass. He’s probably just now getting back to his preferred surface. Following the scratch of my original top pick, I'm most interested in first time turfer Dr. Blute. It’s a little surprising to see this horse move directly over to turf following that impressive debut victory on dirt. However, he actually does have plenty of turf pedigree, as sire Not This Time has won with 11 of 47 turf starters, good for a strong 23% win rate. The dam was unraced, and she is a half-sister to Grade 3 turf winner Khancord Kid. He showed talent in his debut and John Kimmel has solid statistics with first time turfers. He also should be forwardly placed in a field that lacks an abundance of early speed outside of Bardolino.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,9
Trifecta: 1 with 4,9 with 3,4,5,7,9

RACE 4: MINE THE COIN (#6)
Honorable Service is obviously the horse to beat as he drops back down to the level at which he last won back on Jan. 7. However, it does seem like his connections are giving up on him a little prematurely. Aside from his race two back when he ran over a sloppy track that he doesn’t care for, his surrounding form has been solid. He had an excuse last time when he was forced to race extremely wide against a better field in that starter stakes. One would imagine that Rudy Rodriguez could get this horse to win at a higher claiming level, yet now he’s dropping down to the bottom. He’ll win if he shows up, but I’m skeptical that we’re going to see this one’s top effort. I prefer some others at bigger prices. One to consider is The Great Dansky, who the TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts will be vying for the lead in a situation favoring the early leaders. This horse was unwisely rated last time after breaking sharply. Yet he was also spotted to ambitiously in a race that was dominated by the superior Ryan’s Cat. He’s better than that and is now dropping back down to a realistic class level. Yet my top pick is another horse with tactical speed, who will probably attract more attention than I anticipated when I made the morning line for this race. Mine the Coin’s recent form is a little inconsistent, and he only ran a strong recent speed figure when he had the benefit of setting a slow pace over a rail-biased course. His first start off the claim for new connections last time was decent, as he was facing a better field than the one he meets here. However, none of that may matter if he runs as well relative to that form as the two Oscar Barrera-trained runners on Friday’s card at Aqueduct. Both horses showed up looking strong in the flesh and ran the best races of their respective careers for a barn that had previously struggled to succeed on this circuit. If Mine the Coin shows the same type of improvement here, he’s going to win. And he actually has prior speed figures that would make him competitive against Honorable Service if he merely ran back to them.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4,5

RACE 6: LITTERBOX (#3)
I wonder how the public will approach this race. I would imagine that Millean will take money for Todd Pletcher merely due to the fact that he competed in a Kentucky Derby prep race last time. He never lifted a hoof in that race, and if he was coming into this $25k claimer off his desperate maiden score, I wouldn’t be too encouraged. He beat a weak field when he broke his maiden two back and others sport stronger recent form. Main rival Profusion is a tough call. He’s likely to take some money here on the basis of his last-out maiden victory first off the trainer switch to Rudy Rodriguez. And the problem with that is the fact that he outdueled the camera-shy Warfront Fighter to the wire. That said, he still ran well off the long layoff, and he’s bred to appreciate added ground, being by Pioneerof the Nile. Furthermore, Rudy Rodriguez is 9 for 37 (24%, $2.87 ROI) with last-out winners going from sprints to dirt routes over the past 5 years. I expect him to run well, but I’m not thrilled about the prospect of taking a short price on him. My First Grammy makes some sense as a potential gate-to-wire threat, but his form is fairly exposed at this point. Some might also make a case for Giant Shoes on the class drop. However, I’m most interested in a different horse out of the race Giant Shoes exits. Litterbox finished some 5 lengths behind that rival when they met for the $40k tag on Mar. 25. Yet he lost all chance at the start when he was squeezed back out of position and forced to check sharply. He never got involved after but wasn’t really asked for his best following the poor start. Prior to that he had run deceptively well in each of his last two outings, beating track biases on both Feb. 25 and March 13, overcoming wide trips on rail-biased days. Those races came for Ralph D’Alessandro, who had a strong meet at Aqueduct, but now he makes his first start off the claim for Steven Jerkens, who has done a good job with the limited number of horses in his care.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5,6

RACE 9: CALL ME CARMELITA (#13)
This finale is a real head-scratcher, with very little proven turf form – or even turf pedigree – among the twelve runners within the main body of the field. Most of the major players are trying turf for the first time, among which Doyouknowwhoiam probably has the best credentials to take to this surface. She’s by 13% turf sprint sire Verrazano and her dam is a half-sister to turf stakes-winner Daring Duchess. That breeding suggests she should want to go longer, but she’s looked like a pure sprinter in her prior dirt starts, so this distance on turf may suit her. She makes sense, but she could also be the slight favorite in this wide-open affair. Among those trying grass for the first time I prefer Tales I Winit. This filly was meant for turf in her career debut as a juvenile back in 2019, and split the field when the race was rained off. She now returns from a lengthy layoff and drops down. Forty Tales is a decent 12% turf sprint sire and there is a bit of turf pedigree on the dam’s side, though the majority of the runners in this family also handled dirt. Notably, Christophe Clement is 7 for 16 (44%, $2.56 ROI) with maiden special weight to maiden claiming dropdown in turf sprints over the past 5 years. I’m using her prominently, but I want to look in a different direction for my top pick. If she draws into the race from the also eligible list, I want to give the nod to Call Me Carmelita. This filly has the most convincing damside turf pedigree of any runner in this field. She’s the first foal out of Indian Splendor, who was a stakes-winning turf sprinter during her career. Low-profile sire Itsmyluckyday is also a solid turf influence, connecting with 12% of his turf sprint starters. Additionally, John Terranova is 5 for 29 (17%, $8.75 ROI) with first time starters on turf at NYRA over the past 5 years, with winners going off at 50-1, 25-1, 23-1, and 19-1.

Win/Place: 13
Exacta Box: 5,6,13
Exacta Key Box: 13 with 4,8,11

Picks & Plays for Friday, April 16

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 3 - 13 - 11
Race 2:   1 - 5 - 7 - 3
Race 3:   2 - 6 - 7 - 4
Race 4:   4 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 5:   6 - 3 - 7 - 2
Race 6:   2 - 1 - 4 - 8
Race 7:   3 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 8:   1 - 3 - 5 - 8

PLAYS

RACE 4: STEAM ENGINE (#4)
Bears Mafia figures to attract some support as he attempts to win his 8th race in his last 9 career starts, and his only loss during that time was when he got pulled up on the turn at Aqueduct in November. He’s clearly in the best form of his career for trainer Jeffrey Englehart, and he showed that he had maintained that condition from last year when he rebounded with a victory off the layoff last time. My concern is that he got a very good trip in that race, allowed to set a moderate pace. Now he finds himself in a spot where he has to deal with a very fast horse posted to his outside, and I’m concerned that Pablo Morales won’t be quite as aggressive. Three horses exit a Mar. 20 race at this level, which was won by Dark Money. He arguably got the best trip of that trio, as he was rated off a very fast pace and got a clear run through the lane. He’s in great form and can obviously win with a repeat of that performance, but I prefer others from that race. Bronx Bomber is the one who encountered obvious trouble, as he acted up at the start and was off very slowly. However, breaking slowly might have been to his benefit given the swift fractions. He ultimately got a great ride from Trevor McCarthy, but still ran well for third. If he can run as well with a clean break he’s a contender, but I’m worried he’ll revert to his old speedy running style here and get outrun to the lead. I prefer Steam Engine from that race. He’s the aforementioned pace rival to Bears Mafia who may just prove quicker than that foe. Steam Engine is very fast in the early stages of his races and should be clearly in front if he breaks cleanly under Irad Ortiz. He set a wicked pace last time and did well to hold on until the last sixteenth. His TimeformUS Speed Figure, adjusted for pace, was a 113 – which is clearly highest in this field. This time I think he’ll be rated along on the front a bit better, and I expect him to take these all the way. He also handles a wet track and there is rain in the forecast.

Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 1,2,3,5
Trifecta: 4 with 2,3 with ALL

RACE 5: LEGIT (#6)
The 8-year-old Malibu Pro has been in great form for much of the past year, and he exits one of his best recent efforts in that More To Tell starter stakes last time. He was racing first off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez that day and showed improved early speed before just getting run down by the venerable Control Group. A repeat of that performance would make him awfully tough, and he’s arguably getting some class relief as he’s back in for a tag. Some might view it as a negative that he drops below the price for which he was claimed two back, but he’s probably just being spotted to win. Rudy’s other runner was no match for his uncoupled stablemate in the More To Tell last time, but he had fared much better in his prior start at this level on Feb. 21. That performance was achieved over a wet track, and it does appear that he has a slight preference for that going, which he could get on Friday. He lacks the consistency of Malibu Pro, but the fact that there’s no scary drop in class is a good sign. He also figures to be a much more palatable price than the favorite given the presence of Irad Ortiz on Malibu Pro. I’m using both but I prefer another rival. Legit recently had to drop down to the $20k claiming level to collect his first victory since May 2018. To his credit, he did run well within the context of that race, as he closed willingly from last-to-first in a race that featured an extremely slow pace. He was defeated by today’s rival Malibu Pro when they faced off in a similar spot back in December, so this horse will have to move forward to turn the tables. However, now he goes out for Linda Rice, who is 22 for 58 (38%, $2.31 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes at Aqueduct over 5 years. Furthermore she’s 7 for 26 (27%, $2.26 ROI) with first off the claim with last-out winners in dirt routes. Legit is supposed to get a bit more pace to close into than last time with horses like Ajnadeen and American Lincoln signed on, and he’ll be a square price.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,7
Trifecta: 6 with 3,7 with 2,3,5,7

RACE 6: RUDE AWAKING (#2)
New Year’s Wish is the enigma in this race. She’s clearly superior to this field based on prior form, but it’s hard to know how to assess her off the long layoff. She was entered and scratched in a series of tougher spots (notably in small fields with another Rice entrant) before ultimately landing here. Notably, her form declined last season, and she also had real issues getting out of the gate in those appearances, often dwelling badly at the start. Linda Rice is 15 for 84 (18%, $1.53 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more over 5 years. It’s perhaps a good sign that Jose Ortiz takes the mount, but I still can’t trust her at a relatively short price. I prefer some alternatives. One of those is Lady by Choice. She’s been badly overmatched in her last two starts, as she never had much hope of getting close to the classy Letmetakethiscall. The last time she raced for a $20k tag she wound up in the winner’s circle paying $82. She won't be such a massive price this time, but she is getting back to the right class level. She also may catch a wet track, which she typically relishes. I’m using her prominently, but my top pick is Rude Awaking. This 4-year-old’s recent form has been remarkably consistent for a filly who changed hands from the powerful Linda Rice stable to low-profile trainer Richard Metivier for just $10k. She was defeated by today’s rival Lady By Choice at this level on Dec. 31, but seemed to improve in her return from a brief layoff in March. She held well to be second behind the superior Malibu Mischief two back, and then put in another game try against some very tough rivals in that Videogenic starter stakes. She’s now getting needed class relief, and has the tactical speed to be prominent throughout in a paceless affair. The TimeformUS Pace Projector shows her contesting the lead in a situation favoring front-runners, and she figures to be a square price. I would also include the recent Rob Atras claim Blunt Force, who has a right to improve off the barn change.

Win: 2
Exacta Box: 1,2,4
Exacta: 2 with 8,9

Picks & Plays for Thursday, April 15

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 1A - 2 - 9
Race 2:   9 - 3 - 8 - 1
Race 3:   3 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 4:   6 - 4 - 2
Race 5:   1 - 7 - 9 - 5
Race 6:   1 - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 7:   10 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 8:   4 - 2 - 1 - 9

PLAYS

RACE 6: FOREVER CHANGED (#1)
It’s hard to know how the public will approach this confusing New York-bred optional claimer given the mix of 3-year-olds and older runners. I suppose the favorite could be Singular Sensation as she returns from a layoff. She ran fairly well in her two races over this surface last fall when second at this level before finishing third in a 4-horse Bay Ridge. The problem is that she got a great trip on Dec. 3 and was supposed to win that day, and then set a glacial pace in the stakes. Now she’s returning at 7 furlongs, which is probably short of her ideal distance. She was also outworked by turf filly Kilkea in a recent drill at Gulfstream, suggesting that she may need a start off the break. Among the more lightly raced options, I’m most intrigued by Secret Love and Bank Sting. The former put in a terrible performance when last seen in the Maddie May, but it feels like she might have bled in that race as she abruptly stopped on the turn and now gets Lasix for the first time. She ran well to win a stakes in the mud two back, and could get another wet track here. Bank Sting also has upside despite being a 4-year-old. She tries to win her third consecutive start since returning from a layoff this winter. While she rode the gold rail early in that Feb. 26 affair, she finished well even when she swung wide for the drive. I’m using both of these, but my top pick is Forever Changed. This 5-year-old mare feels like one that could get lost in the shuffled in a very competitive race. At first glance it appears that her form has gone sour, but she had subtle excuses in her last two starts. She was too aggressively ridden last time before steadying back to last on the backstretch. And prior to that she was compromised by a slow pace in a race that was dominated by a front-runner. She’s getting needed class relief, and note that she won each of her last two starts at this N2X state-bred optional claiming level. I also like the rider switch to Junior Alvarado.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,6,7,10
Trifecta: 1 with 5,7 with 5,6,7,9,10

Picks & Plays for Sunday, April 11

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 2:   4 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 3:   8 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 4:   5 - 7 - 4 - 9
Race 5:   3 - 5 - 7 - 4
Race 6:   2 - 6 - 1 - 7
Race 7:   4 - 11 - 3 - 5
Race 8:   4 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 9:   11 - 9 - 4 - 10

PLAYS

RACE 1: ALWAYS CARINA (#5)
Well-bred first time starter Always Carina is by 12% debut sire Malibu Moon out of a dam who earned her only victory in an off-the-turf event going a mile at Belmont. This dam’s only other foal is Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Structor, and the second dam Miss Seffens was a multiple stakes-winning dirt sprinter. Chad Brown is just 13 for 80 (16%, $0.87 ROI) with 3-year-old and up first time starters in dirt sprints at NYRA over 5 years, suggesting that these runners often get overbet. That said, this filly was working like a good thing last summer at Saratoga before getting scratched out of a maiden race on the penultimate weekend of the meet. The most impressive of those summer workouts was in company with Zainalarab, who won her debut impressively last fall at Belmont. Her recent drills in Florida are more of a mystery, but I anticipate that she’ll be tough in this relatively soft-looking maiden affair if she still has the ability she displayed last year. The other first time starter who could take money is After the Party. Progeny of Into Mischief are always dangerous in their debuts, and the dam was a minor stakes winner sprinting on dirt. Additionally, the dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 Las Virgenes winner Callback. Jeremiah Englehart is just 4 for 31 (13%, $1.18 ROI) with 3YO+ firsters in dirt sprints at NYRA over 5 years. I’d use both of these, as I’m not thrilled with some of the experienced runners. Before You makes her first start for Bill Mott, but I wasn’t thrilled with her debut at Tampa where she wasn’t facing a particularly tough field. Venus Oyzo might be more dangerous, since she’s at least run competitive speed figures at this level. Plus she was wide against a bias last time.

Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 2,3,6

RACE 2: JUSTIN FRONT (#4)
This is a confusing race in which you can make a valid case for all of the six runners. I scratch into Justin Front following the scratch of Brush Country, and he is the horse to beat based on his 2-length victory at the $8k level last time. He looked like a winner every step of the way on that occasion, as he always traveled well under Eric Cancel. He’s moving up in class, but he isn’t catching the toughest field at this level. Furthermore, he could be the quickest of them all early and is drawn outside of his main pace rivals. I prefer him to dropdowns like Skyler’s Scramjet and Eagle Pass. The former ran a winning race two back, but he’s so inconsistent so it’s tough to trust that he’ll run back to that performance. Eagle Pass makes his first start off a trainer switch to Ray Handal following a troubled trip last time. Yet I always find it hard to trust Penn National form, and layoff seems like a negative for a horse who had run so frequently prior to having an issue last time.

Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 1,3,5

RACE 5: SWEET LARISSA (#3)
Cazilda Fortytales comes into this race off the best last-out effort, but that performance came at the end of 2019, so she’s been off for over 16 months. She can win here if she returns in top form, and I suppose it’s a good sign that the claiming tag is waived. Yet she’s still hard to trust at any kind of short price. I prefer some more lightly-raced options. The favorite could possibly be Rainbow Gal, who makes her first start off the claim for Orlando Noda. The barn change isn’t exactly a positive, since former conditioner Bruce Levine was winning with a high percentage of his runners over the winter. That said, this filly did improve second time out and now gets a rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz. I’m using here, but there are a couple of intriguing dropdowns to consider. One of those is Raffinity, who returns from a layoff after making one start at Saratoga last summer. She was fairly green that day, finishing well behind a trio of talented fillies in a fast race for the level. She certainly has a right to improve in her second start, though Rob Atras isn’t known for success with young horses. I prefer Sweet Larissa at a similar price. This filly was off slowly in her debut and proceeded to race extremely wide around the far turn. According to Trakus, she covered 50 more feet than the winner around that one turn, which is basically as high a ground loss figure as you’ll see in a one-turn race. All things considered she stayed on well at the end, and earned a decent speed figure. I think she can step forward in her second start for Mark Hennig, who is 8 for 34 (24%, $2.40 ROI) with maiden special weight to maiden claiming dropdowns a NYRA over 5 years.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,7,8,9

RACE 7: BRUNATE (#4)
The Big S is likely to be the prohibitive favorite in this spot, but I’m starting to get a little sick of this horse losing at short prices. He looked like he had found the right field on Jan. 22 but was run down by Mister Phil. He was in over his head two back, but last time he again had found a field that should have been at his mercy and he surrendered the lead in the stretch. He earned an 85 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance, which is merely mediocre for this level, and I think he’s vulnerable at a short price. I think the best alternative is the last-out maiden winner Brunate. I admit that this isn’t a horse I would have tabbed to ever pick against winners when he resurfaced this winter. Yet I cannot deny that his last race represented a huge improvement over his prior form. He was stalking two-wide against a rail bias on Feb. 26 and he just ran away from that field in the late stages, earning a solid 86 TimeformUS Speed Figure. H. James Bond has solid numbers with horses coming off maiden wins and I like that Trevor McCarthy is back aboard after getting him more involved in the early stages last time. Plus, a wet track doesn’t figure to hinder him given how well he ran over a sloppy track last summer at Saratoga. The others are tough for me to endorse. Macho Boy figures to lead them a long way, but he usually finds someone to pass him late. Gratto Swing would have been somewhat interesting at a huge price based on his against-the-bias trip last time if he had a competent rider named.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,9,11
Trifecta: 4,11 with 4,11 with 2,3,5,9

RACE 8: ARK IN THE DARK (#4)
If not for his last outing, The Caretaker would be a clear favorite in this spot. He ran well enough to win at this level back on Dec. 19 when rallying wide against a rail bias to just miss. He also put in a good effort first off the claim for Wayne Potts two back going a sprint distance. While the stretch-out to a mile may not have agreed with him last time, he still ran poorly after showing no signs of early speed. He’s now been gone for more than 11 weeks since that race, and he’s only worked 3 times in the interim, all spaced far apart. Perhaps it’s just as simple as him getting back to the right distance, but you have to be a little concerned that he’s gone sour. I have similar concerns about Durkin’s Call, who exits an uncharacteristically poor effort off the claim for his new barn. He ran one of his better races two back, but he got a great trip that day closing into a quick pace. That was also going a mile, which seems like a more comfortable distance for him than this 6-furlong trip. I a bigger price who possesses more tactical speed than this pair. Ark in the Dark had been in solid form through the winter at Parx, picking up checks at the N1X allowance level before breaking through that condition on Mar. 15. He tried starter optional claimers last time and the result was a disaster. However, note that he got involved in a very fast pace that fell apart. The two horses with whom he was dueling on the front end, one of which was favored, faded to finish 5th and 7th. He’s better than that, and should appreciate the slight cutback.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,6,7

Picks & Plays for Saturday, April 10

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 9 - 6 - 8
Race 2:   7 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 3:   2 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 4:   7 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 5:   5 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 6:   6 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 7:   8 - 5 - 7 - 1
Race 8:   7 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 9:   9 - 7 - 10 - 6

PLAYS

RACE 2: ZOIKES (#7)
This intriguing maiden special weight event for fillies features a slew of 3-year-olds with upside. Yet the horse to beat is arguably the 4-year-old Phipps homebred Harlem Heights. This half-sister to Point of Entry took to the turf last fall after disappointing at short prices in a few dirt races during the summer. She finished well in her initial start on this surface going this same 9-furlong distance. Yet she also got a favorable pace setup that day. That was not the case last time when she chased a quicker pace going 1 3/8 miles, which may be pushing her beyond her limit from a stamina perspective. She makes sense, but others seem more likely to move forward. Miss Bonnie T could be a threat to wire this field as she returns after just missing in a maiden event here last December. She made a bold move on the far turn to open up on the field before getting cut down late. I’m certainly using her, and she could go off at a decent price given the presence of two Chad Brown fillies. Gabby Squared makes some sense for that barn, but I feel she may get overbet based on some slight trouble at Gulfstream last time in a race where she otherwise had a good trip. I prefer Zoikes, who returns from a layoff after making one start last year at Keeneland. She was off very slowly that day and lagged at the back of the pack early before making a mild late run into third. She must do better to beat this field, but I think she’s likely to take a step forward. Chad Brown is an excellent 11 for 34 (32%, $2.98 ROI) with maidens returning from 150 to 300 day layoffs in turf routes over 5 years. She was a slightly built horse last year, and it seems like she’s grown up over the winter based on her recent works. She’s bred to appreciate added ground as a daughter of Dubawi out of a Group 1-placed dam who produced a European Group 3 winner at 10 furlongs.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,5,6,8
Trifecta: 7 with 2,3,5 with 2,3,5,6,8

RACE 3: CENTAVO (#2)
Romp figures to go favored here as he makes his first start against winners following a blowout 9-length victory against maiden claimers at Gulfstream. While he won geared down at the end, he was hard-ridden all the way around the far turn to get engaged and Jose Ortiz was even driving him aggressively into the lane before he put away that field. He’s definitely a grinder that requires some pedaling, so he figures to drop back and make one run once again. At a short price, I’m most concerned about the cutback in distance. He strikes me as one that would want to go farther than a mile, yet now he’s cutting back to 7 furlongs. I’m using him, but there are certainly other options to consider. The problem with most of the alternatives is that they possess early speed, and the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. American Gentleman could attract some support, but he rode a gold rail last time and is one of many who wants to be near the front here. Blu Grotto ran well to break his maiden last time before fading at this level last time. I prefer a different horse out of that race. Centavo closed to be second behind Civil War, who was getting significant class relief in that spot. While Centavo was never a threat to that winner, I thought he finished well up the inside, and looked comfortable racing through traffic in a field that was well-bunched on the turn. His versatile running style appeals to me in this race, and it seems that he’s really stepped forward in his last couple of starts. As long as he can get a similar trip this time, he’s a threat to win at a square price.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5,7

Picks & Plays for Friday, April 9

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 2:   5 - 1A - 6 - 2
Race 3:   4 - 5 - 6 - 12
Race 4:   1 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 5:   11 - 8 - 9 - 3
Race 6:   4 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 7:   1A - 8 - 2 - 5
Race 8:   5 - 6 - 11 - 7

PLAYS

RACE 3: GIRAMONTE (#4)
It’s hard to know where the public is going to land in this perplexing maiden claiming event. Me ‘n Sap should take some money given the presence of Jose Ortiz on board. However, I’m dubious about his chances switching to turf. While his dam won on synthetic and she’s by Artie Schiller, this isn’t a big turf pedigree overall. Sire Bourbon Courage has had just a couple of winners as a turf sire. I’ll use him defensively, but others appeal more. The one with the best overall turf form is probably Justintimeforwine. He ran some strong races against maiden special weigh company as a younger horse. He’s certainly tailed off since then, but he was still good enough to set some quick paces on the turf last year. Now he’s turning back to a sprint, which could be right up his alley considering his natural speed. Mike Luzzi just has to work out a trip because he can be a bit of a run-off at times. I’m most interested in new faces. I could consider the first time starter Jack’s Dream, who does have some turf pedigree on the dam’s side. However, George Weaver has uninspiring statistics in this situation. I’m instead going to a different first time turfer. Giramonte gets on this surface for the first time after three starts on dirt. The most recent of those was a step in the right direction, as he stayed on well after a wide trip while racing over a track that was tilted towards inside runners. Yet now he gets on turf and he has some pedigree to handle it. His dam has thrown one turf sprint winner, and he’s sired by excellent 15% turf sprint sire Tizway. He wouldn’t need to be much to handle this group, and he figures to be a price.

Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 5,6,11,12

RACE 6: SAVOY (#4)
Likely favorite Cousin Andrew’s three prior starts have all yielded the same result. He looked like he might be bound for a solid 3-year-old campaign following that encouraging debut here last winter. However, he didn’t really step forward in his subsequent start, and then the pandemic induced a layoff. He returned last summer with a solid performance in the mud, but was no match for Creed, who followed up that maiden score with an allowance win. This three-time runner-up now hasn’t been seen in 10 months, but he returns in a favorable spot. Chad Brown is 5 for 14 (36%, $2.12 ROI) with maidens returning from layoffs of 180 days or more in dirt routes over 5 years. He’s the horse to beat, but he doesn’t really scare me at a short price. His main rival based on prior form is Continuation. Yet this colt has also had his chances at this level. He never really ran back to that auspicious debut last winter, though he has picked up some minor awards since then. He ran particularly well last time when again checking in second at this level behind the improving Mystic Night. Now the connections add blinkers in hopes of pushing him over the edge. I’m using both of these runners, but I’m instead siding with upside. My top pick is the other Chad Brown runner Savoy. His debut last summer was encouraging, especially considering that he was participating in a pretty live Spa maiden event. Both Ten for Ten and Speaker’s Corner returned to win next time out, with the former subsequently finishing second in the Grade 2 Remsen later in the year. Savoy gave the impression that he was one who would stretch out, but he failed to handle the added distance over a sloppy track in October. Now he returns from a layoff as a new gelding. He’s certainly bred to love the distance, since his dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Status and graded stakes-winning router Alumni Hall.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5
Trifecta: 4 with 1,2 with 1,2,3,5

RACE 8: BOURBON RISING (#5)
On the Muscle owns the best last-out turf effort in this field but he’s hard to take at a short price in this race. He’s 0-for-12 now and 10 of those losses have come on turf. While he earned a competitive speed figure in his runner-up finish at Fair Grounds last time, that wasn’t the strongest field and he still couldn’t get the job done with a great trip. I’ll use him underneath, but others are more appealing win candidates. Among those with turf form, I’d be more interested in Matty’s Marauder. I’m not sure what happened to this gelding in his most recent turf effort in October, wich was poor. However, he ran well in his only other turf sprint last June at Belmont, and would be dangerous here if he could get back into that form. Yet there are a couple of first time turfers to consider. One of those is Sixteen Tons, who makes his turf debut for Linda Rice while returning from a 14-month layoff. This gelding showed promise early in his career and never really panned out. Bodemeister is a decent turf influence, and the dam has produced 3 turf winners, including a full-sibling to this runner. I’ll use him, but I’m a little more confident in Bourbon Rising handling the turf. This gelding has a very similar profile to Sixteen Tons, and actually debuted in the same race as that rival all the way back in September 2019. Bourbon Rising goes out for a barn that doesn’t have much success with first time turfers. However, he’s bred to handle this surface. He’s by strong turf influence Uncle Mo and his dam was a synthetic winner who also ran well on turf. I think this one has a right to handle it, and I like him turning back in distance.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,6,7,8,11