Aqueduct TimeformUS Race Analysis

Picks & Plays for Sunday, January 29

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 2:   3 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 3:   2 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 4:   1 - 5 - 7 - 8
Race 5:   4 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 6:   6 - 7 - 3 - 5
Race 7:   5 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 8:   3 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 9:   10 - 1 - 3 - 11

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 4: PAPI ON ICE (#1)

I suppose Super Quality (#7) is the horse to beat as he makes his third attempt at this $20k maiden claiming level. He ran better than it might appear in his first two dirt starts for Atras as he was on a dead rail in September and then was pressing an extremely fast pace in that November race at this level. He’s drawn well outside of his main pace rivals, but there is still plenty of speed signed on and he may not be at his best if unable to make the lead. I don’t want to settle for a short price on him. I have similar feelings about Naked and Famous (#5). This speedy 5-year-old was facing a much tougher field in his career debut last June when he displayed high speed for a half-mile before stopping. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to build on that performance even as he’s descended the class ladder in recent starts. He has had some excuses recently and may be set for better second off the layoff. Yet I’m still skeptical of his chances with other speed signed on. I think there’s a real chance this race could fall apart late. Some may favor Growth Mindset (#8) in that scenario, but I’m a little skeptical that he can be an effective dirt sprinter, having never gone this short. My top pick is Papi On Ice (#1). This gelding has had more chances than everyone else in here, but he fits this race flow very well. He’s been most effective when he gets into spots that feature fast paces, as was the case when he nearly won off a layoff in November. He hasn’t been quite as effective since then, but Randi Persaud has tried to stretch him out in recent starts and I think he’s a bit better going shorter. Randi Persaud has sent out some live runners at this meet and this one figures to fly under the radar.

WIN: #1 Papi On Ice, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 7: EASY PLAY (#5)

I won’t argue with anyone who asserts that Villareggia (#3) is the most likely winner of this bottom-level conditioned claimer, but she’s just not the kind of horse that I want to endorse at a short price. She’s been fairly consistent through her recent starts, which is more than the others in this field can claim. Yet she’s a bit of a plodder and now lands in a race that doesn’t feature much early pace. She’s also making her first start off the claim for Amira Chichackly. That barn has had some recent success, but I’m still not sure I’d want to be claiming horses off Lynn Cash, who tends to get the best out of his runners. The TimeformUS Pace Projector points out that there isn’t much speed in this race, predicting a scenario favoring the early leaders. That figures to benefit Easy Play (#5) most of all. No one in this field is a confirmed front-runner, but this Orlando Noda trainee seems most likely to go forward in the early stages, as she tried to do last time. Yet she was coming off a layoff and facing a tougher field of $25k claimers. She’s now dropping in class after getting a pretty tentative ride from Eric Cancel that day. She seems like one who could benefit from that run and I think the slight stretch-out to 7 furlongs will help her cause, especially if the pace is slow. I would also use London Gold (#7), who can be forwardly placed and has been in decent form for Randi Persaud lately. She’s met some slightly tougher fields at this level in recent starts and usually goes off at a square price.

WIN: #5 Easy Play, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 7

RACE 8: LUNI SIMA (#3)

Tonal Impact (#1) feels like a deserving favorite as he tries to break through this N1X allowance condition. He had his 4-race winning streak broken when he just missed at this level last time, but he still ran well in defeat. Gasoline, who looked beaten at the top of the lane, battled back gamely inside of him, but this horse never stopped fighting to the wire. He obviously handles the distance and has been in strong form since the Linda Rice claim. He's the one to beat, though a short price is all but guaranteed. I’m not a big fan of his main rival Six Percent (#6). This horse did win going the distance at Saratoga last summer, but he did so against a weaker field of conditioned claimers. He’s maintained solid form since then, but I’m not sure that he’s really at his best going this distance. He got a nice speed figure for winning a New York-bred allowance race last time, but the competition is getting much stronger now. I prefer Luni Sima (#3) at a similar price. I’ve always wanted to see this horse stretched back out in distance, but they’ve generally kept him at one turn for most of his career. His lone prior attempt going this 9-furlong distance around two turns came during his 2-year-old season when he finished a decent third in a stamina-testing maiden special weight event at Saratoga. He’s generally been in solid form for Peter Walder, usually running well in his races going a mile and beyond. I thought he had valid excuses in each of his last two starts, and he rebounded nicely last time when more aggressively ridden to press the pace. I’m hoping that Jose Gomez uses similar tactics here, as he’s good enough to compete with the favorite on his best day.

WIN: #3 Luni Sima, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 9: CAPTAINSDAUGHTER (#10)

This N1X allowance affair is easily the most wide open race on the card. The Pace Projector is unsurprisingly predicting a fast pace, as there is plenty of early speed signed on. The best of the speed types may be Ruvies in Time (#1). This 7-time winner has more victories at Aqueduct (5) than most horses in this field have won in their entire careers. She’s had some ups and downs over the past few seasons, but she does appear to be in one of her good runs right now. She did well to hold on for second at a big price last time in what was surely a tougher race for this level. The biggest drawback today is the inside post position, since all the other speed is drawn outside of her. One of the primary enigmas in this field is Hot Fudge (#11), who returns from a lengthy layoff for Linda Rice. There’s obviously talent here, but this filly has many questions to answer. She did handle dirt pretty well when she broke her maiden in her second start as a 2-year-old, though she benefited from a rail-skimming trip on a day when the inside path was beneficial. Rice is 4 for 22 (18%, $1.74 ROI) off 300+ day layoffs over 5 years. This filly’s style fits this race, though I do have some questions about whether she’s really a dirt horse, as I’ve been more impressed with her turf races. A filly with a similar profile is Champagne Poetry (#3). There was some buzz about her when she launched her career as a 2-year-old in late 2021, and she did run the two best races of her career on dirt during that campaign last winter. The connections seemingly made a mistake when experimenting on synth and turf in her last couple of starts, but she’s back in the right kind of spot and seems to be working well for her return. Yet I think this race looks ripe to fall apart, so I want a late runner. My top pick is Captainsdaughter (#10). She may not be the most naturally talented runner in this field, but her running style appears to fit this race perfectly. She looked like she might be making the winning move using those tactics last time, but she stalled at the eighth pole going 7 furlongs. She has generally done better at this shorter 6-furlong distance, especially when there is ample speed signed on. She’s a filly who once struggled to win races, but she’s been in career form lately, and usually goes off at a fair price.

WIN: #10 Captainsdaughter, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 1,3,11

Picks & Plays for Saturday, January 28

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 7 - 1 - 6
Race 2:   4 - 2 - 3 - 7
Race 3:   2 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 4:   3 - 8 - 7 - 6
Race 5:   8 - 2 - 7 - 4
Race 6:   5 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 7:   9 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 8:   2 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 9:   1 - 3 - 5 - 4

PLAYS

RACE 1: REGISTER (#5)

I’m not trying to beat Register (#5) in the opener. This ridgling went off as the biggest price in his debut but arguably ran a winning race in defeat, as he had a much tougher trip than the winner. He broke well but got squeezed back to last soon after the start. He then became keen racing at the back of the pack, even running up on the leaders’ heels approaching the stretch. He briefly lost momentum when he had to wheel outside with a quarter to go, but he nevertheless finished best of all to get up for second. There’s obviously talent here, and he seems like one that should appreciate a bit of added ground. His main rivals are all first time starters. Among those I’m most afraid of the Chad Brown trained Treaty Obligation (#7), a son of excellent debut influence Maclean’s Music. The unraced dam hasn’t yet produced much, but she is a half-sister to Grade 1 turf winner Instilled Regard, and this is the female family of Heavenly Prize. Chad Brown is 14 for 52 (27%, $2.02 ROI) with first time starters in Aqueduct dirt sprints over the past 4 years. I would also use the Pletcher trainee Gotta Connect (#1). Some may view this colt skeptically due to his low purchase price, but I didn’t mind his OBS sales workout and there is some decent pedigree in the second generation of his female family.

WIN: #5 Register, at 3-2 or greater

RACE 2: TURNSANDCONDITIONS (#4)

I have no argument that Cousin Andrew (#2) is the horse to beat in this $25k conditioned claimer. He’s just dropping down to a more realistic level after disappointing last time in a tougher spot. He’s encountered wet tracks in his recent starts, but it’s hard to use that as an excuse, since he handled a sloppy surface when he won at Saratoga in July. He’s a deserving favorite, but he figures to go off at an awfully short price due to some questions about his main competition. I also don’t like this move for Linda Rice, who is 8 for 52 (15%, $0.97 ROI) going from allowance to claiming company on dirt at Aqueduct over 5 years. I’ve tried Charger (#3) in some recent races, but he just doesn’t seem to be in particularly good form for Rudy Rodriguez. Therefore, I’m going in a different direction with Turnsandconditions (#4). He’s obviously coming off a poor effort, but that was his first start off a layoff and there were some red flags that day, as he was dropping down in class after a voided claim while exiting some potent barns. He was ridden a bit awkwardly on the backstretch and then backed up. Yet now he’s returning first off the claim for Randi Persaud, who does very well with this move. Over the past 5 years, Persaud is 7 for 20 (35%, $9.19 ROI) first off the claim in Aqueduct dirt sprints. This horse has plenty of prior form that would make him competitive here, and Persaud’s horses have generally been running at this meet.

WIN: #4 Turnsandconditions, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 4: KARA PARA (#3)

Bustin Hot (#8) figures to go favored here as he drops in class for Linda Rice. She actually ran pretty well last time, taking the typical step forward that we tend to see from Rice second time starters. Runner-up Vax has returned to run well in both subsequent starts, and did finally break her maiden earlier this week. Linda Rice is 12 for 29 (41%, $1.77 ROI) horses going from maiden special weight to maiden claiming races on dirt at Aqueduct over 5 years, suggesting that she wins often but can be overbet with these types. I think one of the more interesting alternatives to this favorite is Flat Out Phylly (#7), who switches into the hot barn of David Duggan. It can sometimes be hard to trust Finger Lakes form, but she ran well in her debut last year and was flattered when winner Lockbox returned to run well against winners in an Aqueduct allowance race. I’m using her, but my top pick is actually a former Linda Rice trainee. Kara Para (#3) is making her first start off the claim for James Ryerson, who is 5 for 28 (18%, $2.13 ROI) with that move over the past 5 years. This filly showed dirt sprinting ability in her second start when checking in second at the maiden special weight level. It was an off the turf race, but she finished ahead of Sweet Liberty, who has some quality. Her last couple of performances suggest she tailed off, but a mile is probably too far for her, and last time she didn’t seem to handle the slop in a race that is proven to be stronger than the speed figures indicate. I’m giving her a chance to rebound for the new barn at what should be a fair price.

WIN: #3 Kara Para, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 7,8

RACE 7: SYNTHESIS (#9)

There isn’t that much speed signed on in this Grade 3 Toboggan, which makes the two front-runners in this field especially dangerous. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, and depicts Pirate Rick (#2) and Little Vic (#8) well clear of their rivals in the early stages. Between the two, I prefer Pirate Rick. This gelding is returning on very short rest, just 6 days after he impressively beat an optional claiming field here. Yet this is what Lynn Cash does, and he’s had success bringing horses back on short rest. Pirate Rick is in the form of his career right now, and has proven that he can be effective with the pace is fast or slow. The stretch-out to 7 furlongs is a slight concern, but he can’t be ignored in his current form. Little Vic has won at the distance, but I have some doubts about the quality of the Gravesend, which he lost by a nose. He was game to re-rally between horses that day, but I think he needs to do better here. The only horse that I really want out of the Gravesend is Three Two Zone (#1). He didn’t run his race that day, but it wouldn’t be the first time that he’s needed a start coming back off a layoff. He’s probably a bit better at the 7-furlong distance and he figures to be a much more enticing price than last time. My top pick is Synthesis (#9). He didn’t quite run his race the last time Jacobson tested him against graded stakes company in the Fall Highweight, but that race didn’t exactly flow in his favor. He was too far back early and was never put in position to make a run by Jose Ortiz. However, I like all of his surrounding races. He was on the best part of the track when he won that allowance race back in September, but I liked the grit he displayed in the last sixteenth as he fended off Happy Farm. He wasn’t beating the strongest field in his most recent victory, but I liked the way he relentlessly stayed on after a wide trip. He’s won his last 3 attempts at this 7-furlong distance, and I think Turkish jockey Gokhan Kocakaya will prove a good fit for him, since he’s aggressive and this horse needs a strong ride. The David Jacobson runners have generally been running well over the past month or so, and he used to be very dangerous with these types of horses.

WIN: #9 Synthesis, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 1,2

RACE 8: JET SET JULIET (#2)

I don’t have any major knocks against likely favorites Royal Currency (#4) or Fancy Feline (#3). This just isn’t the strongest race for the level and both of them make plenty of sense off their recent efforts against tougher rivals. I slightly prefer Fancy Feline, since she’s generally been a bit more consistent. She also lands in a race that figures to feature plenty of pace. Royal Currency arguably ran the best last race of any of these when she finished second behind Kant Hurry Love, but her form had been a bit spotty prior to that. The only runner who interests me as an alternative to this pair is Jet Set Juliet (#2). She comes in off a poor effort where she finished far behind Fancy Feline, but she didn’t get the right trip that day. She was tentatively handled early and got steadied out of position on the far turn. Prior to that she had tried a tougher spot than this and didn’t run that badly in her first attempt against winners. She showed the quality that she’s capable of producing when she beat next-out winner Tough Street at Saratoga last summer. New rider Maddy Olver has done well on speed types like this, and I think she might be able to run this field off their feet if she’s sent to the front. The track was playing towards inside speed on Friday’s card, as it was last weekend.

WIN: #2 Jet Set Juliet, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 9: AMERICAN GRANT (#1)

Bourbon Chase (#3) has well in all four starts, but remains a maiden despite going off at short prices each time. He was touted on debut when he got run down at 4-5, and that was a just a preview of things to come. To his credit, he has been beaten by some legitimate rivals along the way. However, he didn't have much of an excuse last time when just hanging in the late stages going this distance. Todd Pletcher is a trainer who tends to get these types to break through pretty early, so it's a negative when they continue to fall short. I nevertheless slightly prefer him to the other horse who will take money, Factually Correct (#5). This speedy colt put in a big effort two back when checking in third behind the talented duo of Mariachi and subsequent stakes winner General Banker. However, I thought he was supposed to win last time when getting run down by a first time starter. His speed figures suggest he’s faster than Bourbon Chase, but now he’s stretching out an extra furlong to try the mile, and it’s unclear if added ground benefits him. Plus Rudy Rodriguez barn has been struggling to post wins so far at this meet. I want to get a little more creative with the lightly raced American Grant (#1). This gelding was off a bit slowly and lacked speed on debut, but was staying on late while no match for a runaway winner. The result was similar in his second start, where he also displayed a bit of greenness, trying to lug in through the stretch. Dylan Davis rode him pretty tentatively late, but the horse did gallop out well past the wire. He’s a big son of Commissioner who gives the impression that added ground will help him. I also think the addition of blinkers will help a horse who I suspect has more natural talent than he’s yet displayed in the afternoon.

WIN: #1 American Grant, at 7-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Friday, January 27

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 2:   6 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 3:   2 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 4:   7 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 5:   6 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 6:   2 - 8 - 7 - 6
Race 7:   1 - 8 - 9 - 2
Race 8:   3 - 1 - 4 - 8

PLAYS

RACE 4: TYRANNOSAURUS REX (#7)

It’s possible that Bernardino (#2) could go favored here off a string of superior speed figures on turf. Yet I find it awfully hard to trust this 8-year-old horse to transfer that form to dirt at this stage of his career. He has more of a turf pedigree and the connections have always avoided running him on the main track before. It appears that they’ve finally given up, as he drops in for this $25k claiming tag. The problem is finding suitable alternatives to this guy. I can’t take Patrick the Great (#3), who has been terrible in two starts for Linda Rice and didn’t run so well in his lone prior route attempt. The horse to beat might actually be Reunion Tour (#5), as he comes in with the best recent dirt form. He had a slightly better trip than today’s rival Midnight Express (#4) in that Jan. 5 race last time, but the James Ferraro trainee has gained a newfound consistency as of late. I’m expecting another good effort, but I’m not going to pick an 0 for 23 maiden on top. Therefore I’m landing on Tyrannosaurus Rex (#7). This gelding is a bit light on speed figures, but at least he has some upside in just fourth career dirt attempt. He seemed to take a step forward when returning from the layoff for Jeffrey Englehart’s barn last time. He didn’t get the most comfortable trip that day, as he got shuffled back heading into the turn before making a mild move to challenge at the quarter pole. I think added distance helps him, and he’s obviously getting a rider upgrade. Jeffrey Englehart is a trainer that doesn’t do so well off layoffs, but he is 8 for 35 (23%, $3.07 ROI) second off a layoff of 120-240 days over the past 3 years.

WIN: #7 Tyrannosaurus Rex, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 5: PATTY H (#6)

Rossa Veloce (#3) will obviously beat this field if she runs back to the 102 Beyer and 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned in her narrow victory over Beguine two back. Yet that effort is such an outlier in her past performances, so it’s a little tough to trust her to reproduce it. She came back down to Earth last time when lost as the 6-5 favorite after setting a moderate pace in the fog. If she runs that race, or her October debut for the Rob Atras barn, she’s still a contender here but isn’t some kind of standout. I’m inclined to let her beat me at a short price. I prefer her main rival Leeloo (#5) among the short prices. This filly is stepping up to the open N2X level for the first time, but she isn’t catching the toughest field. She’s been in great form recently for David Duggan, winning 3 of her last 4 starts while ascending the class ladder. She figures to be right there with her usual solid effort. Yet I’m going for a bigger price on top. Patty H (#6) could get somewhat overlooked here off a pair of disappointing losses at the level. Yet she had legitimate excuses each time. She was severely bumped at the start two back, forcing her out of position early, and then last time she broke slowly in the fog. I don’t want to be too hard on her for either of those performance, as I know she’s capable of better. She showed that three back when she nearly held off Mosienko in a similar spot. At her best she has the tactical speed to be forward here, and I think drawing outside will help her cause.

WIN: #6 Patty H, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 5

RACE 7: HANDSOME CAT (#1)

Life Changer (#9) is obviously the horse to beat after hitting the board in his last three attempts at this level. He was arguably best last time when splitting horses in the lane to just miss getting past winner Reggae Music Man late. However, the form of that race wasn’t flattered when the winner came back to run poorly in his subsequent start. I also have some doubts about the quality of a few other races he exits, and I tend to think this spot is a bit deeper. He’s surely a contender, but I didn’t feel the need to default to him at a short price. Bezos (#8) arguably put forth the best last race of anyone in this field when he finished fourth in the Gravesend. He’s been steadily improving since the claim for just $16k by Chandradat Goberdhan and will be tough for this field to handle if he repeats that 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure. I don’t fully trust him, but he figures to be a fair price once again. David Jacobson has entered two in here, of which Cees Get Degrees (#2) could attract more support. Yet he made find it difficult to win this race with a speedy rival like Bezos in the field. I actually see plenty of speed signed on here, so I’m much more inclined to consider Jacobson’s other runner. Handsome Cat (#1) will benefit from any pace that develops up front. He’s not a plodder by any means, but he does have the ability to close into a quick pace, and many others in this field aren’t as comfortable using that style. I thought he might have been able to win at this level two back if Javier Castellano had been able to get him off the rail in the stretch. Then last time he never gave up when just missing the place, battling on between horses behind a dominant winner. Both of those races came over wet tracks and he may be more comfortable on fast going. David Jacobson’s horses have been running well lately, and this one should be a fair price with the apprentice named to ride.

WIN: #1 Handsome Cat, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 8,9

Picks & Plays for Thursday, January 26

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 2:   1 - 4 - 2
Race 3:   6 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 4:   6 - 7 - 4 - 5
Race 5:   2 - 5 - 6 - 9
Race 6:   6 - 7
Race 7:   1 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 8:   4 - 9 - 11 - 2

PLAYS

RACE 2: MACH ONE (#1)

After the scratch of Buckingham Prince, Mauritius (#4) figures to go off as a heavy favorite here. He is probably getting needed class relief as he drops in for a tag for the first time. He had little chance against a much tougher allowance field when he made his first start for the Rob Atras barn last time. He was also conservatively ridden that day, as Kendrick Carmouche made little attempt to get to the front. He figures to get a more aggressive ride this time and is a threat to wire the field. I just didn’t love his maiden victory two back and am still not totally convinced of his overall quality. I’m trying to beat these two short prices with Mach One (#1). Some may be reluctant to trust this runner going out for low-profile connections, but there’s no denying that he showed real improvement switching into the Eddie Persaud barn last time. He didn’t get the best ride that day, as Heman Harkie got him stuck in a pocket behind the eventual winner and kept trying to come up the rail despite there being little room for him to squeeze through. I thought it was a credit to this horse that he stayed on so gamely for second. This gelding spent a lot of time on turf, but he’s always been more of a dirt horse. He also just wasn’t thriving with former trainer Bonnie Lucas and seems to have taken a step forward for new connections.

WIN: #1 Mach One, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 4: EL MAYOR (#6)

I’m reluctant to take a short price on any of the favorites in this bottom-level conditioned claimer. Majestic Tiger (#4) is obviously the one to beat, and perhaps he finally breaks through this level by attrition, as there aren’t any rivals as good as last-out winner Quickflash in this lineup. Yet he lands in a race that doesn’t feature much pace and he’s going to inherit the favorite’s role after going off at more enticing prices in his last two starts. Jade’s Dream (#7) is the other obvious alternative to the favorite, but he has many of the same flaws as Majestic Tiger. I do like him turning back to a shorter distance, but his lack of early speed may not fit this race flow. I’m giving another shot to El Mayor (#6). This horse has been a bit of a pet of mine, and he hasn’t come through yet. However, I do think his form has been heading in the right direction recently. I thought he stayed on well after a wide trip two back when finishing just 1 1/2 lengths behind Jade’s Dream. Then last time he stayed on decently after a ground-saving trip. I’m hoping the apprentice rider gets a little more aggressive with him here, as he seems to run better when he’s forwardly placed. The price should be fair.

WIN: #6 El Mayor, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 5: BINGOOD TO KNOWYA (#2)

I would view Dr. Kraft (#5) as the horse to beat even though he hasn’t gone off at particularly short prices in any of his prior starts. He finished a decent third behind a pair of runners with some talent on debut, and then just caught an unusually tough maiden field in his second start. They took the blinkers off last time and I thought he stayed on well through the fog to pick up another minor award. He’s paired up TimeformUS Speed Figures in the low 90s, and those numbers make him a deserving favorite here. Some may look to first time starters as alternatives, but I’m not thrilled with any of the options. Gem Mint Ten (#3) and Electric Stuff (#6) each go out for barns that can win on debut, Ray Handal and George Weaver, but goth horses have more turf pedigrees. The obvious firster is Launch Control (#9) for Todd Pletcher, who worked an impressive 10-flat at the OBS April sale last year. Yet I’m not sure what to make of his recent workouts in company with maiden claimer Laurel Valley, and it feels like he could take money. My top pick is another runner with experience. Bingood to Knowya (#2) has run a bit better than it might appear in both of his dirt starts. He was a bit green through the early stages of his debut when he was just facing a couple of very tough rivals. Even though he has a turf pedigree, he didn’t seem to handle the turf two back. He confirmed his preference for dirt last time when he rallied well for third despite getting an extremely wide trip closing into a slow pace. I would like to see him get a more aggressive ride from this inside draw if he breaks cleanly this time. The price figures to be fair given the presence of a low-profile rider and plenty of firsters who will take money.

WIN: #2 Bingood to Knowya, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 5

RACE 8: TIMBUKTU (#4)

Likely favorite Overstep (#6) is a real enigma in this field. He showed real talent easily beating maidens on debut before putting forth a game effort in the Sleepy Hollow as a 2-year-old. He was arguably best in that stakes attempt after having to alter course while rallying in the stretch. Yet now he’s been off for 15 months and returns with plenty of questions to answer. Todd Pletcher is known for doing well off layoffs, but he’s just 2 for 22 (9%, $0.35 ROI) off 300+ day breaks in dirt routes over 5 years. This horse briefly returned to training last summer at Saratoga before launching his most recent comeback. The works in Florida look decent enough, but I still wouldn’t want to take any kind of short price on this horse. The second and third choices on my morning line, Simply (#2) and Mason Mania (#3), are logical enough, but neither does much for me as the obvious alternatives. I think the value in this race is looking beyond the predictable options for some better prices. My top pick is Timbuktu (#4). This colt handled dirt reasonably well when he tried it in that off the turf affair in October. He was facing a weaker field that day, and actually ran better than it might appear, chasing 3-wide against an inside bias. He made his first start off the claim for Michelle Nevin last time, and again put in a performance that isn’t as poor as the result might indicate. He battled on gamely for third in that Dec. 18 starter allowance, and multiple horses, including those who finished behind him, have returned to register improved speed figures in their subsequent starts. I like him cutting back to a mile and think he’s underrated as a dirt horse. I also want to give another chance to Son of an Ex (#9) at an even bigger price. His recent form leaves something to be desired, but there are reasons to take an optimistic view. He was simply overmatched when he made his return on Dec. 18 against open company. That was also a race that was dominated up front where closers had little chance to get involved. Then last time he didn’t get the best ride going 9 furlongs over a sloppy track. He now turns back to an appropriate distance in a race that is supposed to feature some pace. I would even include Uno (#11), who stretches back out in distance after returning in a sprint last time. He didn’t run that badly in that return to the NYRA circuit, and had previously run faster speed figures going longer at Finger Lakes.

WIN: #4 Timbuktu, at 6-1 or greater
USE: 9,11

Picks & Plays for Sunday, January 22

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 2 - 7 - 1
Race 2:   1A - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 3:   5 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 4:   3 - 8 - 6 - 5
Race 5:   2 - 1A - 3 - 5
Race 6:   2 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 7:   3 - 6 - 7 - 5
Race 8:   6 - 1 - 7 - 5
Race 9:   5 - 8 - 2 - 6

PLAYS

RACE 3: LA VITA SOFIA (#5)

I imagine that Shidabhuti (#6) will take plenty of money off her 6-lengthh debut triumph at Monmouth. Yet I have some questions about this filly’s overall quality and her ability to handle the stretch-out to a mile. It’s a little odd that she’s been on the shelf for the past 4 months, since it seems that she’s been training right along the entire time, logging 15 workouts since that debut score. That says to me that Chad Brown just didn’t think she was good enough to compete in many of the stakes that came up during the interim and has been waiting for a softer spot like this to fill. Furthermore, she got a great pace setup in that debut while beating a very weak field. Practical Joke is not the best stamina influence and she strikes me as a more of a sprinter. I’m more interested in proven commodities at what may be bigger prices. Gold Medal Anna (#1) offers some appeal as she ships in from Parx. This deep closer has been beaten by a legitimate foe, Girl Trouble, in her last couple of stakes attempts. She’s getting mild class relief here and gives the impression that added ground should help, as she is a daughter of Grade 1 turf router Voodoo Dancer. My top pick is La Vita Sofia (#5). She didn’t seem to get the distance in the Demoiselle last time, but it’s asking a lot of these youngsters to try 9 furlongs. Her prior effort in the Tempted is better than it appears. She was traveling well approaching the quarter pole, but Jose Gomez overcommitted to the inside path and got steadied behind a tiring rival just as she was mounting a rally. She’s a little light on speed figures overall, but I think this is the right distance for her and she’s getting significant class relief.

WIN: #5 La Vita Sofia, at 2-1 or greater
USE: 1

RACE 4: PONCHO SONG (#3)

Racing Colors (#6) would be pretty formidable against this crew if she ran back to her effort two back when she finished a decent fourth at the starter allowance level. However, she completely failed to show up in a similar spot last time and now is dropping all the way down into this bottom-level conditioned claimer. Watching her races, there isn’t really much to her, as she’s a slight physical specimen. Perhaps the racing has just caught up to her, and the connections are acknowledging that she’s gone in the wrong direction. I’m trying to beat her in this spot. Perhaps the biggest danger is She Caught My Eye (#8), who drops back down in class after running poorly in the slop last time. This filly has some natural ability, but she’s not the bravest competitor, often throwing in the towel when she gets put to pressure. However, when the trip does work out she’s capable of earning speed figures that would beat even Racing Colors on a good day. Perhaps she can work out the right trip from this outside post position. Rob Atras has entered a pair in here. Perhaps Princess Pinky (#5) will take some money as she stretches back out to a more appropriate distance. Yet I believe she’s more of a turf horse. I prefer Poncho Song (#3). She doesn’t make things easy on herself as a deep closer, but there is supposed to be some pace in this race. She obviously went off form for trainer Bonnie Lucas late last year, but most horses out of that stable were underperforming at the time. She returned from a layoff last time and I thought she took a subtle step forward off the trainer change to Rob Atras. The trip just didn’t really work out, as she was too far back early and asked to run through on the inside of horses, which is probably not her preference. The blinkers should give her some added focus, and I don’t mind the stretch-out to a mile.

WIN: #3 Poncho Song, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 8

RACE 5: STAGE LEFT (#2)

There may only be 6 betting interests in this high-level optional claimer, but it’s arguably the most interesting race on the card. Amundson (#5) had been in great form last fall and seemed to maintain that condition when he was first claimed by Linda Rice last year. However, he’s now lost twice in a row at short prices, and he figures to encounter a difficult pace scenario here with plenty of other speed signed on. The biggest early challenge figures to come from Pirate Rick (#1A), who is drawn just to his outside. This Lynn Cash runner wasn’t successful when he made his first trip to Aqueduct last November. However, he’s since rebounded to win three in a row, including a redemptive victory when he returned to this circuit last time. That came at a slightly lower level than this, but he defeated a pretty talented rival in Sheriff Bianco, snapping a 3-race winning streak for that foe. A repeat of that 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure could make him too much for this group to handle. Yet he and Amundson will be hard-pressed to wire this field, as even longshot Fire Sword (#4)figures to mix it up on the front end. Happy Farm (#3) is the most logical closer that many might consider. He was overmatched in the Fall Highweight two back and rebounded decently last time when closing for third behind a gate-to-wire winner. I’m reluctant to take horses from this barn at short prices, as they have been underperforming lately. My top pick is Stage Left (#2), who should also benefit from some quick fractions up front. He finished behind Amundson at this level last time, but he didn’t get the right ride that day, as he found himself pressing a contested pace. He put in a performance that makes him competitive here two back, and he’s also run well when closing from off the pace in the past. The turnback to 6 furlongs should suit him and he figures to be a fair price.

WIN: #2 Stage Left, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 1A

RACE 8: SECURITY CODE (#6)

Stonewall Star (#7) is obviously the most accomplished member of this Franklin Square field. However, I think she’s coming into this a little overrated. She enjoyed a very soft setup when she won the Key Cents back in November, and she had little excuse to lose that stakes at Laurel last time. She’s a nice horse, but I’m not sure that she’s really improved at all since last fall and there is other speed to push her on the front end this time. Among the likely short prices, I prefer the upside of Starry Midnight (#1), who ran quite a race on debut. This filly wasn’t actually that slow out of the gate and was briefly in contact with the field before she appeared to react badly to kickback on the backstretch. She was striding greenly as she abruptly dropped back, seemingly out of contention. Yet she put in an impressive rally on the far turn to get back into the race, which ultimately carried her to victory. This is a much tougher spot, but I think she’s capable of improving with that experience under her belt. I just wonder if she’ll be much of a price here, since it’s not secret that she had a trip first time out. I want to go in a different direction with another late runner. Security Code (#6) has been a disappointment since beating Stonewall Star at Saratoga over the summer. She went badly off form when she first came to Aqueduct in the fall, but her last couple of starts have been subtle steps back in the right direction. She closed decently to just miss second behind Stonewall Star in the Key Cents when not getting the best setup. And then last time she would have been clearly second to Banterra if she hadn’t been ridden into traffic at the quarter pole. She needs to take another step forward to upset this field, but she figures to be a generous price and I think there’s going to be some pace in here.

WIN: #6 Security Code, at 9-2 or greater
USE: 1

Picks & Plays for Saturday, January 21

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 2:   2 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 3:   5 - 2 - 9 - 8
Race 4:   1 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 5:   6 - 5 - 8 - 3
Race 6:   3 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 7:   7 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 8:   4 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 9:   1 - 7 - 8 - 3

PLAYS

RACE 5: MY FRIENDS BEER (#6)

Optic Way (#8) looks like a deserving favorite at first glance, as he’s coming off the best speed figure that he’s achieved in a while and has been claimed by a barn that has great stats using this move. Yet it’s a little strange that this horse hasn’t run back for two months, and Jose Camejo doesn’t appear to be as dangerous recently as when he first appeared on this circuit. Overall, he’s just 2 for 12 (13%, $0.96 ROI) first off the claim at NYRA. I’m a bit skeptical that this horse can run back to that last performance and there are plenty of other options to consider. Cool Quartet (#3) is another runner who goes out for a dangerous trainer, as he makes his second start off the switch to Rob Atras. He did face a much better field last time, but I don’t love his prior form at Finger Lakes and feel he would need to improve to beat this group. Dark Storm (#5) interests me more. He’s another coming off a brief layoff, but he was in solid form when last seen. He did well to wear down favorite Its All Relevant two back and then ran a good second at this level last time when mildly impeded by his entrymate through the lane. Something has obviously kept him off the track recently, but he returns with no drop, and gets Turkey’s champion jockey aboard. My top pick is My Friends Beer (#6). Perhaps the unfamiliar connections will scare some players away, but I really liked his effort last time. He made a game run through traffic, altering course in the stretch to take a good shot at the superior winner Winter Pool. That result may look like an outlier, but he had excuses prior to that. He’s never been too fond of wet tracks, so I don’t want to hold his two sloppy performances at Parx against him, and he was going the wrong distance back in November. This horse has plenty of back class and appears to be rounding back into top form. He closed from far back last time but does possess a bit more tactical speed than that.

WIN: #6 My Friends Beer, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 5

RACE 6: LOST IN ROME (#3)

I have mixed feelings about O’Trouble (#2), who could go favored here as he makes his first start off the claim for David Jacobson. The Jacobson horses have been performing better in recent weeks, and this horse is a neck shy of having won his last three starts. He beat a weaker field last time, but was much the best that day as Jose Gomez nearly botched the ride, getting him in trouble early before finding a clear path along the inside. He has the speed figures to win at this level, but his best performances have generally come against cheaper foes. Quick Return (#1) and Durkin’s Call (#6) both competed in a $25k claiming race back in early December, where they filled out the trifecta behind Jemography. Durkin’s Call ran the slightly better race that day and came back with a deceptively game performance against a much tougher field last time going a mile. I think he’s a threat if the pace comes apart, but he’s never been the most reliable win candidate. I’m going for a bigger price with Lost in Rome (#3). This horse has really woken up since getting claimed for just $10k by trainer William Younghans. He was game to get the job done in November, and then showed a new dimension, rallying from off the pace to win that starter allowance over O’Trouble two back. I won’t hold his last against him, since that was a very ambitious spot. He’s now dropping back down to a more realistic class level and I don’t mind him turning back in distance with so much pace signed on. Heman Harkie has ridden him well, and the price should be fair.

WIN: #3 Lost in Rome, at 9-2 or greater
USE: 6

RACE 8: FLIGHT TO SHANGHAI (#4)

I certainly respect Betsy Blue (#5), who has been one of the most consistent racehorses on the NYRA circuit for the past two years. She’s steadily improved for Linda Rice and really seems to have taken her game to a new level since last summer at Saratoga. She didn’t get the right trip in the Iroquois two back when she registered a rare off the board finish, but she bounced back with a better effort in the Go For Wand. Turned back to her preferred sprint distance in the Garland of Roses, she delivered a strong stretch rally to run past the talented Beguine in the late stages. A similar performance makes her tough to beat, but she’s also going to be a very short price now that her best form has once again been exposed. It’s also unclear if she’s going to get the same pace setup that she enjoyed last time, as the horses who you would expect to be forwardly placed aren’t exactly that fast. Miss T Too (#2) is perhaps the quickest of them all early, but it’s been a little while since she’s been sent to the front and she doesn’t have the most aggressive rider on her back. She had some real sprint talent early in her career, but a series of setbacks have derailed her. I considered putting her on top, but I found another who may offer better value. Flight to Shanghai (#4) obviously doesn’t sport as strong a resume as some others in here, but I thought she took a subtle but significant step forward off the claim for Horacio De Paz last time. Sent off at 72-1 in that Go For Wand, she applied serious pressure to the impressive winner Dr B in the early stages and was still in the mix at the quarter pole before fading. While she hasn’t run as fast as Betsy Blue, she earned a strong 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that last performance. Furthermore, Horacio De Paz is 7 for 17 (41%, $3.74 ROI) second off the claim on dirt over the past 5 years. And at NYRA tracks, he’s 5 for 9 (56%, $6.08 ROI) with 3 seconds. I expect her to get an aggressive ride from Jorge Vargas and the slight turnback to 7 furlongs should suit her. I believe she’s the biggest threat to Betsy Blue and the price should be fair.

WIN: #4 Flight to Shanghai, at 6-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Friday, January 20

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 2:   4 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 3:   2 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 4:   5 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 5:   8 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 6:   3 - 2 - 7 - 5
Race 7:   5 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 8:   1 - 2 - 8 - 6

PLAYS

RACE 3: PRAIRIE FIRE (#2)

Perhaps the drop in class will wake up Chloe Rose (#4), who figures to vie for favoritism in this spot. Yet I have trouble taking a short price on a runner who has been in such dubious form. I thought she was a little interesting dropping back in for a tag last time and she failed to finish off that race after contesting the pace. This is a weaker field, but it feels like she’s just not the same horse that we saw in the first half of last year. Greatest Love (#1) has a right to improve second off the layoff for Charlton Baker. She ran a decent race last time out when running for the claiming waiver in a cheaper spot. If she could get back to the form that we saw out of her when she was previously in Baker’s barn last June, she would be tough for this field to handle. Yet obviously plenty of time has passed since then. The horse that I prefer out of that Jan. 5 race is Prairie Fire (#2). She probably should have won that day, as she got shuffled back soon after the start when Jose Lezcano was unsuccessful in attempting to hold his rail position. She still came with a strong rally to just miss in an effort that was better than the speed figure indicates. She got claimed by a low-profile barn out of that race, but didn’t run that badly first off the claim last time. Though she was only competing for a $16k tag, that was a much tougher spot than this, as winner Melting Snow earned a big speed figure for the level. We also saw runner-up Vegas Weekend return with a much improved effort in her next start out of that race. This mare is better form than it appears, and the price should be fair.

WIN: #2 Prairie Fire, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 4: BIG VENEZUELA (#5)

I don’t have a major problem with likely favorite Doctor Love (#3), who looks like the horse to beat. He ran pretty well first off the claim for Tom Morley, attacking a pace that came apart while only beaten by a couple of late runners. The slight turnback in distance figures to suit him, and Tom Morley is a strong 18 for 76 (24%, $2.25 ROI) second off the claim over the past 5 years. The one issue with this horse is that his form is exposed at this point, so you’re not going to get the kind of prices that he’s been in his recent starts. I prefer him to the other likely short price, One Whirlwind Ride (#2). This gelding did improve slightly off the claim for Rob Atras, but he’s moving up in class and needs to do a bit better to beat this field. He’s never been the most reliable win candidate and there appears to be other speed in the field for him to deal with. My top pick is Big Venezuela (#5). He comes off a poor effort at this level, but I don’t want to be too hard on him for that loss going 9 furlongs. The distance is probably too far for him, and he was also setting a pace that came apart. I thought he ran pretty well in his prior start at this level going a mile. He carved out some legitimate fractions that day and just got a bit tired in the late stages, though still earned a strong 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He hasn’t sprinted much in his career, but I like this slight turnback for him and he’s drawn well outside of his main pace rivals. He also figures to be a fair price for an underrated trainer and jockey.

WIN: #5 Big Venezuela, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 3

RACE 5: PRETTY MISS KEENS (#8)

I suppose K D Kakes (#5) is the horse to beat off her debut performance at this level. She got away to a very tardy start that day, leaving the gate about 4 lengths behind the rest of the field. She actually made good progress after that disastrous beginning to nearly get up for third. A repeat of that effort gives her a chance here, and it’s easy to excuse her last result against a tougher field. However, it’s still hard to take too short a price on a deep closer in this kind of race. There are some second time starters with upside, but neither one showed any ability on debut. At least Betting On a Stone (#6) goes out for a trainer who has great stats with this move, as Linda Rice is 5 for 10 (50%, $6.44 ROI) with maiden second time starters turning back to dirt sprints over the past 5 years. Yet I wanted to go in some other directions. Magnolia Wind (#4) is one of two first time starters in this field, and she actually shows some decent workouts for the debut. David Duggan is 0 for 15 with firsters over the last 5 years, but this filly does have some pedigree to be a runner. My top pick is the most experienced member of this field. Pretty Miss Keens (#8) may have simply gone off form, but it’s worth noting that she’s caught three sloppy tracks in a row, and her best performance came over a fast surface on debut. I would also point out that she was drawn inside in each of those last two starts and she seemed to get discouraged when she failed to make the lead. She feels like the kind of runner who may do much better from an outside post position where she can get into a more comfortable rhythm. There isn’t that much speed among those with experience in this field, so she should be able to get in front, depending on how much speed the firsters possess.

WIN: #8 Pretty Miss Keens, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 7: SENIOR INVESTMENT (#5)

This 9-furlong optional claimer seems totally wide open, as none of the 6 runners stands on particularly solid ground. I suppose the ‘now’ horse is Little Demon (#4) as he returns just 6 days after a career-best performance here last Saturday. This guy was competing in cheap claiming races last summer, but he’s turned into a different horse since getting purchased by David Jacobson. For what it’s worth, Jacobson is 6 for 21 (29%, $1.96 ROI) off 4 to 8 day layoffs on dirt over 5 years, and he’s 3 for 6 (50%, $4.08 ROI) with last-out winners in that sample. This field might not be too much tougher than the one he defeated last week, but he does have to stretch out. Locally Owned (#3) is perhaps one of the more trustworthy options given his positive experience at the distance. He got a confidence boost when dropped into some cheaper races late last year, and it seemed to work, as he’s generally been back in decent form lately. He almost got he job done going this distance last time but couldn’t quite reel in the hardy 10-year-old Rough Sea. This is a step up in class, but it’s not the strongest field for the level. Be Better (#6) is a total wild card as he tries to get back on track after a series of poor efforts. Perhaps getting back on Lasix will prove key for a horse who used that anti-bleeder medication in both victories last summer at Monmouth. Yet I’m not sure it’s quite that simple, so I would still need a pretty generous price to give him another chance. No Burn (#1) could play out as the controlling speed if he gets out of the gate, but that’s been an issue in his last couple of starts. He’s another who hasn’t been in the best form recently. In such a wide open race, I try to look for value and I think Senior Investment (#5) could offer the best opportunity as likely the biggest price in the field. While it’s a negative that he’s lost 13 races in a row, he’s nevertheless shown up with solid efforts in most of his recent starts. He ran well behind the promising Unbridled Bomber in November, which was the last time that he made use of his tactical speed. Since then he’s been cut back to one-turn races, which don’t seem to suit him as well. He also caught a sloppy track last time, and he’s never run well on that kind of going. This stretch-out should benefit him, and he would also be suited by a more aggressive ride from Lezcano given this race’s murky pace scenario.

WIN: #5 Senior Investment, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 3