Picks & Plays for Saturday, April 21
by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 4 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 2: 3 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 3: 5 - 2 - 4
Race 4: 1 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 5: 6 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 6: 9 - 10 - 1 - 4
Race 7: 3 - 1 - 8 - 9
Race 8: 8 - 1 - 9 - 6
Race 9: 1 - 9 - 7 - 4
Race 10: 1 - 12 - 11 - 3
TOP PLAYS
RACE 2: SHAMCAT (#3)
Catch En Die and Souperfast will vie for favoritism in this race, but neither one seems particularly trustworthy. Catch En Die is the real enigma. He performed well against stakes-quality March two back at Gulfstream. However, his Fair Grounds effort was a disaster and Bill Mott wastes no time dropping him. It took him a long time to return to the races following 3 starts in Argentina, so it’s possible that are some physical issues that are keeping him from performing at a higher level. Souperfast is placed at the right class level, but he’s returning from a layoff for Robertino Diodoro, who does not have great numbers with turf horses in this situation. Therefore, I’m taking a shot against these two with Shamcat. This runner returns to turf after two failed dirt experiments over the winter. While some of his rivals in this race have run faster speed figures on occasion, Shamcat actually kept decent company racing in starter allowance races through last fall. He seemed to improve for his current connections, and a mile is his best distance, whereas you could argue that his two main rivals may want to go a bit farther.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,6
RACE 5: JET BLACK (#6) / PRAETEREO (#4)
Many of the runners in this race participated in the More To Tell Stakes on March 31. Pegasus Red put forth the best effort that day among those in this field, but he’s now running back for the third time in three weeks and again stretching out to a mile. I prefer this runner going slightly shorter, but he’s in with a chance. Nominal Dollars makes his second start off the claim by Rudy Rodriguez, but I’m worried that he will not have enough pace to close into given the lack of speed in this race. That pace scenario should make Jet Black dangerous. He was completely eliminated at the start of the More To Tell, so you can ignore that effort. His prior races all came against much tougher competition than what he meets here. The last time he competed at a realistic class level back on Dec. 16, he put forth a solid effort. I’ll use him with the aforementioned logical runners, and I want to throw in Praetereo at a big price. I know his low-profile connections rarely win, but this horse has been running in the wrong spots recently and is certainly talented enough to compete with this group.
Win: 4,6
Exacta Key Box: 4,6 with 1,2,3,4,6
RACE 6: REIGN CHARGER (#9)
It’s hard to find reliable options in a race that features very little proven turf form. The horse to beat is probably Tom’s Music, who was a fast-closing fourth in a tougher spot going a mile last fall. He had previously had some bad trips in races and might be better than he appears. Freeload is dropping in for a tag for the first time and ran his best race on turf, so he must be used. Gio Lucky had some bad trips in his turf races and deserves a chance sprinting on that surface since he’s improved on dirt recently. I’ll use all of these, but there’s a longshot in this field whom I have to bet. Reign Charger is going to get largely ignored based on his failed turf effort two weeks ago, but I would take that race with a grain of salt. He was totally overmatched against a good maiden special weight field, and Chris Decarlo justifiably made very little effort to motivate him that day. Reign Charger deserves another chance racing on this surface at a realistic class level, and I think he gets that here. This runner has a turf pedigree, being out of a dam who was best racing on grass and by a Grade 1-placed turf sire. I don’t mind the turnback in distance, and I expect this horse to outrun his odds.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,4,10
RACE 7: BREEZY GAL (#3)
Pauseforthecause has probably run the best turf races, but race dynamics could be her undoing. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace with speeds like Forever Daisy and Flat Calm also likely to challenge for the lead. I’m also somewhat skeptical about Pauseforthecause going route distances, so I’m taking a shot against her. Purely Lucky ran well in her turf starts as a 2-year-old and has a right to be competitive here with routine improvement. The same goes for Goodbye Brockley, who comes into this race off a series of stamina-building workouts. She ran well on grass last July and may possess some turf talent. I’m using both, but my top pick is Breezy Gal in her turf debut. While she handled dirt in her maiden win two back, she had everything her own way up front and was able to scamper clear late. I think she accomplished that on class alone since she’s really bred to be better on this surface. The Factor is a 14 percent turf sire, and her dam is a half-sister to turf stakes winner Unbridled Humor. She should work out a good stalking trip under Jose Lezcano, and I think she’s one of the few runners who will offer decent value in this spot.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,8,9
RACE 8: BLAME THE THIEF (#8)
Horoscope will attract support as he returns from a yearlong layoff for new trainer Rudy Rodriguez. He was a promising three-year-old when last seen. Despite taking 9 starts to break his maiden, he finished second to talented runners Long Haul Bay and Can You Diggit before impressively winning by over 6 lengths. However, he has some serious questions to answer. Not only does he have to face winners off a long layoff, but he’s stretching out to a mile, a distance which may be a little far for him. While it’s true that he’s not facing the strongest opposition, there is one horse that I think has an outside chance to beat him. Blame the Thief has had limited opportunities to run on dirt, but he’s performed well enough over the surface to suggest that he deserves a chance here. His only win came going this one mile distance at Aqueduct. He did benefit from a speed favoring surface that day, but he still ran well. His only dirt start since then came in a 1 1/8 mile allowance race at Saratoga, when he raced wide against a gold rail. There is not an abundance of early speed in this field, so I would hope to see him sitting just off the flank of Horoscope in the early going.
Win: 8
Exacta Box: 1,8
RACE 9: WEGETSDAMUNNYS (#1)
Pure Silver is probably going to go off as the favorite, but she doesn’t really excite me at a short price. She’s run well enough to win this on a number of occasions, but she hasn’t really moved forward since early in her 2-year-old season. She was supposed to win last time when riding a good rail for most of the way. I think her rivals can step up to beat her this time. The likeliest candidate is Orchid Party, who returns on just three days’ rest following another impressive win. She’s steadily climbed the class ladder and has earned a spot in this race. Furthermore, over the past five years, Rudy Rodriguez is 4 for 5 (80 percent, $3.16 ROI) with horses returning in five days or fewer following a win. I’m using her, but my top selection is Wegetsdamunnys. There is not much early speed in this field, and I think Rajiv Maragh can take advantage of that situation on this quick filly. She showed good tactical speed in her early starts at Finger Lakes while running deceptively well in her two starts against winners. Last time, in her only NYRA start, she raced wide throughout on a day when you wanted to be toward the rail. That effort is not as bad as it seems, and I think she’s going to give a much better account of herself here. I’ll use her with the two favorites, and I’ll even throw in Our Super Nova, who has improved significantly in recent weeks.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,7,9
RACE 10: CROSSWAYS (#1)
Appealing Briefs is the horse to beat, but he’s clearly had his chances at this level. He continues to run well, but he’s been in a few spots where he really should have won. Now he’s drawn the outside post position in the 12-horse affair, and I’m inclined to take a shot against him. The obvious alternative is Battle of Saratoga, but I’m not totally convinced that this horse can transfer his dirt form to turf. Union Rags is not a strong turf sire, winning with just 5% of his starters on that surface. While there is some grass breeding on his dam’s side, his pedigree is not overwhelmingly geared towards turf. If I’m taking a first time turfer, I want to bet Crossways. This horse hinted at having real ability in his debut when he overcame slow break and three-wide trip to finish second. That performance was even better than it seems since there appeared to be a rail bias that day. I can forgive his subsequent performance going a mile since that was a strong field and the race turned out to be a demanding affair over a speed-favoring surface. This colt is undoubtedly bred for turf, being by 14% turf sire Quality Road out of a dam whose 3 wins all came on turf. He possesses the early speed to take advantage of his rail post position. The other interesting horse to consider at a bigger price is La Manche, who was completely eliminated rounding the far turn in his debut at Gulfstream. He appeared to be fading at the time, but would have finished much closer without that trouble. Bill Mott has decent numbers with second time starters in turf routes.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,7,11,12
Picks & Plays for Friday, April 20
by David Aragona
The highlight of Friday’s card is the stakes-worthy optional claiming race that goes as Race 8. The favorite Timeline, winner of last year’s Peter Pan, makes his 4-year-old debut, but he figures to get a stern challenge from a few key rivals. Multiple stakes winner Sunny Ridge cuts back to one turf for the first time since his 2-year-old season, and high class allowance horse Splashtastic also returns from an extended layoff. Among those with recent form, Flash Trading has put forth some of the best efforts of the winter meet at Aqueduct, and he comes out of a strong win over Gift Box. Given the lack of early pace in this race, I think Timeline is going to be awfully tough to beat, but this should be a fun one to watch.
While the 8th race may not be the greatest wagering race on the card, there are plenty of other opportunities throughout the day, and I'll take a look at a few of those.
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 5 - 7 - 4 - 1
Race 2: 1 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 3: 5 - 2 - 4
Race 4: 2 - 13 - 9 - 14
Race 5: 6 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 6: 10 - 9 - 3 - 11
Race 7: 5 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 8: 6 - 4 - 3 - 7
Race 9: 11 - 1 - 6 - 9
TOP PLAYS
RACE 4: GIANT RUBIES (#2)
Both O Shea Can U See and Susans Funnybone have been scratched. That leaves Croatia as the horse to beat. His lone competitive speed figure looks pretty phony. However, this is still a wide-open field, and I’m not content to settle for the favorite. Anything Pazible has back races that make him competitive, but his recent form is lackluster. I'll use both of them, but the horse who interests me at a price is Giant Rubies. His debut is not nearly as bad as it seems. The chart comment fails to note that he broke slowly and spotted the field multiple lengths. From there, he raced extremely wide throughout yet still put in a mild late run. The 72 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned is not considerably slower than what the favorites are running, and he figures to improve with that experience under his belt.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 9,13,14
RACE 5: PRESENCE OF MIND (#6)
Morning Breez is hard to trust after losing as the 1-5 favorite against a weaker field than this one. He could be heading in the wrong direction, and it’s not as if he ever loved to win races. The problem is that I’m not in love with the logical alternatives, both trained by Todd Pletcher. I suppose Analyze the Odds will take money after winning at this level going a mile. However, he’s a plodder who really needs a solid pace to close into, and I’m not sure how much help he’s going to get. What the Catch is probably the more talented of the two Pletcher runners, but I have my doubts about him getting the 6 1/2-furlong distance. I think this race is begging for a new face to emerge, so I’m taking a shot with Presence of Mind off the layoff. George Weaver’s numbers with dirt sprinters coming back off breaks like this are mediocre at best, but I’m willing to overlook that. This colt’s effort in the Tremont last year was actually pretty decent. The early pace was fast (indicated by red color-coding in TimeformUS PPs), and Presence of Mind chased the leaders until the race fell apart at the end. This time, he can work out an outside stalking trip and may run a better race with routine maturity.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4,5
RACE 6: MYSTERIO (#10)
Sentry is the only horse in this field who has strung together decent turf efforts. However, I do have some concerns. This gelding has squandered good chances to win recently. He also has required significant time between starts, which is never a great sign. I think you have to use him, but I don’t love him. The other runner likely to take money is Texican, who switches to turf while dropping in class. Chad Brown actually has good numbers with this move. Over the past five years, he is 4 for 12 (33 percent, $3.03 ROI) with horses dropping to maiden-claiming company for the first time while making their turf debuts. The horse is a half-brother to two turf winners despite being a Bernardini, so perhaps he can handle this surface. I’ll use both, but one longshot has a chance to upset the field. Mysterio made one start on turf nearly a year ago, and it was actually a decent effort. He got a fine trip racing along the rail for the first 7 furlongs, but had to alter course at the eighth pole when he ducked in with nowhere to go at the gap in the course. From there, he angled outside and just missed fourth while herded out late. In my opinion, he ran well enough that day to suggest that he deserves another shot racing over turf. This gelding is out of a dam who was a turf stakes winner and is a half-brother to two turf winners, so this is his preferred surface. If he’s ready to go off the layoff, he can make some noise here.
Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 3,9,11
Trifecta: 3,9,11 with 3,9,11 with 10
RACE 9: BOURBON BOY (#11)
Chad Brown’s firster Financial System can obviously win, but he actually has fairly weak numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is just 2 for 24 ($0.90 ROI) with first time starters in maiden claiming turf routes. Also, while this horse is by good turf sire Twirling Candy, there isn’t much grass pedigree on the dam’s side. The problem with this race is that, if you don’t like Victor Lounge (and I don’t), you have to get a little creative to find alternatives. The one that many will gravitate towards is Inevitable, and for good reason. This horse is by good turf sire Giant’s Causeway and is out of a dam that ran very well on turf and hails from a strong grass family. The only problem I have with Inevitable is the fact that he’s running for a tag. Surely his connections purchased him for $180,000 with turf in mind, so why is he only running on it now as a 4-year-old while racing for a $40,000 tag? It doesn’t add up. If I’m going to bet a first time turf runner in this race, I’d rather take a horse at a bigger price, and I think Bourbon Boy fits the bill. His dirt races are slow, but he presents himself as one that should move up with the switch to turf. Street Sense is a decent enough turf sire and his dam is a turf winner that hails from a turf female family. I like that he showed better early interest with the addition of blinkers last time in a race where he ran better than it seems given his ridiculously wide trip. These connections are sure to get overlooked and I think this one will outrun his odds.
Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,4,6,9
Picks & Plays for Thursday, April 19
by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 1/1A - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 2: 1 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 3: 5 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 4: 2 - 5 - 8 - 6
Race 5: 4 - 9 - 7 - 10
Race 6: 6 - 9 - 7 - 10
Race 7: 6 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 8: 2 - 3 - 8 - 6
Race 9: 3 - 4 - 6 - 2
TOP PLAYS
RACE 2: HEYITSNRICOPALAZO (#1)
Regalian is running back on short rest following a runner-up finish at the starter-allowance level just six days ago. If he can repeat that effort, he has a good chance to win this race. However, his connections are dropping him in for a tag for the first time since claiming him, and his prior races don’t make him particularly tough. Looking at Regalian’s March 11 race, Heyitsnricopalazo actually ran better than him despite finishing just a nose behind that rival. The early pace was honest, and I thought Heyitsnricopalazo battled back gamely inside of the eventual winner before fading at the very end. This horse improved significantly on his debut and now figures to play out as the main speed from the rail under Paco Lopez. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, and this colt looks faster than Blinded Vision in the early going.
Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 3,6
RACE 4: CONQUEST SO TRUE (#2)
The horse to beat is clearly Jcs American Dream, who has spent the majority of her career facing much tougher competition. However, it’s not a great sign that Linda Rice is dropping her in for the $10,000 tag after running her just once in the past eight months. She can certainly win this race but is impossible to trust at a short price. Nevertheless, I like her more than Doinwhatshelikes, who beat an awful field at this level last time and might need to improve to win again. I want to go in a different direction, so I’m taking Conquest So True. David Jacobson has great numbers with this move. Over the past five years, he is 8 for 17 (47 percent, $3.20 ROI) second off the claim with horses going from sprints to routes on dirt and running back on short rest of 14 days or fewer. Conquest So True’s last race is not nearly as bad as it seems given that there was no pace for her to close into. She’s run well enough going longer in the past, and she’s placed at a realistic class level.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,6,7,8
RACE 5: MISS SIZZLE (#4)
It’s hard to find the horse to beat in this wide-open field. The horse that's run the best turf races is perhaps Hollywood Cat, who is coming back off a layoff. This filly improved last summer and encountered trouble in her final two starts of 2017. That was especially true on Oct. 15, when she was in a bad spot throughout and had to steady out of position in the lane. She was a vet scratch twice after that and now returns as a fresh filly. I’ll use her, but I prefer two fillies switching to turf. Passporttovictory has already handled grass for her prior connections but hasn’t made a start over it since last November. Her turf efforts make her competitive, and she possesses decent tactical speed in a field that lacks much pace. Perhaps most importantly, she’s making her first start off the claim for Jeremiah Englehart and Jimmy Riccio. I’m using her prominently, but the filly I picked on top is Miss Sizzle. She’s making her turf debut, and she’s certainly bred to handle the grass. Her sire, First Defence, wins with 15 percent of his turf starters, and this filly is a half-sister to multiple turf-sprint winner Whiskey Seven. I think it’s telling that her best dirt race came over a sloppy, sealed track. Angel Arroyo figures to send her from the outset in hopes of wiring the field.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 7,9,10
Trifecta: 4,9 with 4,9 with 1,3,7,10
RACE 8: DR. SHANE (#2)
Many horses can win this competitive turf sprint. Sword Fighter appears to be the one to beat as he makes his first start for Rudy Rodriguez while still owned by prior trainer Peter Miller. He ran very well in his turf debut as a 2-year-old, finishing a fast-closing fourth in the Juvenile Turf Sprint behind talented runners Kitten’s Cat and Con Te Partiro. His only other turf start did not go as planned, but he had a rough trip. He’s since run well on wet dirt tracks, and I think he must be respected. Linda Rice has a pair, but both may be compromised by a lack of pace in this race. Psychic Energy got a great setup when closing to be third over this course last December. He makes his first start in about five months, as does her other horse, With Exultation. The latter was going longer distances last year but did run very well in his only two sprint tries. They’re going to need some racing luck to get up for the victory, and I’d rather take a runner with more tactical speed. Therefore, I’ve landed on Dr. Shane. While he didn’t win any of his turf starts last year, he ran very well on a number of occasions against similar competition. Now, he’s returning from a layoff for new trainer Danny Gargan and has drawn an advantageous inside post. Kendrick Carmouche figures to take advantage of this runner’s early speed.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,6,7,8
RACE 9: TEQUILA SUNDAY (#3)
Big Expense is the horse to beat based on her last two efforts, but her margin for error is fairly slim. I Like Your Style showed speed last time, but did so against a bad bunch, and the first time starters don’t exactly thrill me. I want to take a small shot against the favorite with Tequila Sunday. She is probably facing the softest field of her career as she returns from a brief freshening. She faced slightly tougher company in her two starts since returning from the long layoff and I like the rider switch to Eric Cancel. Furthermore, if the rain holds off, she would appreciate returning to a fast track, since her best career speed figures came over fast surfaces last year.
Win/Place: 3
Picks & Plays for Wednesday, April 18
by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 1/1A - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 2: 1 - 5 - 4 - 8
Race 3: 5 - 8 - 1 - 2
Race 4: 1 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 5: 7 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 6: 8 - 7 - 11 - 3
Race 7: 8 - 7 - 4 - 6
Race 8: 3 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 9: 7 - 3 - 6 - 4
TOP PLAYS
RACE 3: RADIANT BEAUTY (#5)
Chad Brown holds a very strong hand in this race. The probable favorite is Data Dependent, who gets some class relief following two tries against graded stakes company. She performed admirably when running on late for second in the Jimmy Durante last November, but disappointed as the favorite last time out in the Sweetest Chant. She did get a wide trip that day, but she lacked any stretch kick whatsoever in a race where others were able to close. Brown has given her a couple of months to recover and she figures to be tough if she gets back to her prior form. His other entrant, So Hi Society, is more of an unknown quantity. We didn’t learn much about her in her U.S. debut as she stopped in traffic when commencing her stretch rally. The main weakness for both of these fillies is their lack of early speed, which could make one of their rivals dangerous. Radiant Beauty earned the highest speed figure in this field in her dominant maiden win at Belmont last fall. She led wire to wire that day and she figures to play out as the controlling speed here. Her following start in the Chelsey Flower is not nearly as bad as it seems, as the chart comments fail to note that she got stopped in traffic in the stretch and was forced to slam on the brakes. She’s been freshened up since then, and her best effort makes her dangerous.
Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 1,8
RACE 5: PUFFERY (#7)
Recent maiden winners Camorra and Seeking the Blue should attract the most attention. The former seems like the more reliable of the two given that she’s returning in a timely fashion, whereas Seeking the Blue has not raced since December. I’ll use both of these fillies, but there are other viable options in this race. The one that interests me is Puffery, who turns back to a sprint distance after a disastrous performance in her first start against winners. The sloppy track on Feb. 16 appeared to be the undoing of many runners, and Puffery just did not seem to handle the going. Her prior maiden victory was visually impressive and fast enough to contend with the favorites here. Mark Hennig has given her plenty of time to recover from her last start, and it appears that she’s been working strongly for this return.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,6
RACE 7: WAR EAGLE’S RETURN (#8)
Cerro is the horse to beat. He’s earned some of the fastest speed figures in the field, and his superior early speed makes him dangerous, since the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead. However, Cerro is hard to trust at a short price. It’s never a good sign when horses claimed for hefty sums run back for a fraction of the claiming tag months later. Furthermore, the Bruce Levine barn has been pretty cold over the past few months. The best alternative to this favorite appears to be War Eagle’s Return. Making his first start off the claim for Jeremiah Englehart and owner James Riccio last time, things went awry from the start. War Eagle’s Return got sandwiched between runners at the start and squeezed to the back of the pack in the early going. His race was essentially over at that point. Now they’re regrouping and putting him back at the same level for which he was claimed. I also like the turnback in distance for a horse that is probably better suited to going shorter anyway. Over the past five years, Jeremiah Englehart is 15 for 63 (24 percent, $2.93 ROI) with dirt turnbacks at NYRA. I’ll use this horse with Forest Blue, who has been keeping much better company and also gets some needed class relief.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,4,6,7
RACE 9: BARATTI (#7)
A few of the main contenders in this race met on the Aqueduct turf course last fall. Baseline finished second at this level on Nov. 25 after setting the pace, just ahead of Cheyenne Bull, who was recording the second of two third place finishes in similar spots. Cheyenne Bull has since run respectably on dirt and appears to be coming into this race in solid form, whereas Baseline has since been claimed away from Brad Cox. Today’s rival Acoustic was also in that Nov. 25 race, but he finished far back after encountering a great deal of trouble in the stretch. This marks his first turf start since then, and his first start off the claim for Mike Maker. As long as some pace materializes, Acoustic appears to have an excellent chance to turn the tables on the aforementioned pair. However, there are others to consider as well. Glennrichment has raced primarily on dirt, but his turf effort last fall at Belmont certainly gives him a shot here. That N1X allowance field seemed stronger at the time than it does in retrospect, but Glennrichment nevertheless handled the surface. I’ll use him, but the horse that interests me most at a more attractive price is Baratti. This horse has been a massive disappointment after an impressive maiden score 4 years ago. However, I think it’s possible that he’s spent too much time racing on the wrong surface. Based on his efforts in 2017, turf might be what he needs. He actually ran deceptively well on Aug. 24 at Saratoga, closing from far back into a slow pace. Then on Nov. 3 he was hindered by a wide trip when finishing behind Cheyenne Bull. I find it interesting that the Mark Casse barn has dipped in to claim him at this point in his career. The Casse barn has had a strong winter meet in New York. They’ve only claimed two horses on this circuit during that time, but one won off the claim and the other finished a narrow second.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,4,6,9
Picks & Plays for Sunday, April 15
by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 7 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 2: 2 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 3: 4 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 4: 10 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 5: 4 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 6: 3 - 6 - 9 - 5
Race 7: 8 - 7 - 10 - 5
Race 8: 5 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 9: 9 - 8 - 3 - 10
TOP PLAYS
RACE 3: WAR CHEST (#4)
Hawkish is a deserving favorite in this race. He came with an eye-catching late rush to win his debut at Gulfstream. The public respected that initial run so much that it sent him off at a mere 3-1 in the Grade 3 Palm Beach Stakes in just his second start. While he finished fourth that day, he actually ran a bit better than it seems. The pace was fairly slow, and Hawkish was forced to make an early, wide move into contention on the turn, which clearly detracted from his stretch kick. He’s now dropping into a softer spot for his third start and figures to be tough to hold off at a short price. The only runner I think has a chance to beat him is War Chest. This well-bred colt was nearly as impressive as Hawkish when winning his debut at Belmont last fall. He has disappointed in two subsequent starts, but he did not receive ideal trips on either occasion. Jose Lezcano had trouble finding a clear path in the stretch of the Awad two back, and then last time, he was doomed from the start when breaking from the outside post in a 12-horse field. This colt is better than his last two efforts, and he, too, is dropping into a slightly less daunting spot. Over the past five years, Shug McGaughey is 21 for 90 (23%, $2.09 ROI) with horses coming off 75 to 150 day layoffs in turf routes. He’s the narrow selection over the favorite.
Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 1,3,7
Trifecta: 1,4 with 1,4 with 3,5,7
RACE 4: TIZ A CHANCE (#10)
Assuming this race stays on turf, only seven of the 12 entrants will participate, yet there is still quite a bit of speed among them. Changewilldoyagood, Fox Rules, and Haul Anchor all require the early lead in order to produce their top efforts. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast early pace, and it does seem likely that one of the runners sitting off that early duel will be able to take advantage of dynamics. Many of the contenders are coming off layoffs. The one who was in the best form as of the end of last year is Mascarello, who reeled off a pair of dominant wins against inferior competition. If he returns as the same horse, he will be tough to beat, but I don’t want to bet him at a short price. Wicked Freud spent much of last year getting trounced by tougher fields, but he was able to put forth a competitive effort when dropped to this level in November. He would appreciate a fast pace, but I’m afraid that 1 1/16 miles may be a bit far for him. I’m taking a shot against these two with Tiz a Chance, who figures to go off at a slightly better price. This gelding really improved late in the turf season last year, outrunning his long odds in a number of races. Stepped up to this level on Dec. 8, albeit sprinting, he actually ran very well with an uncomfortable trip. He’s had time off but has been working steadily for this return and gets a significant rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz Jr.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 3,5,7,12
RACE 7: RAUCOUS (#8)
This is easily the most competitive race on the card, as you can make a case for almost any runner in this large field. The likely favorite is Out of The Flames, who ships in from Southern California for trainer Simon Callaghan. This English-bred filly first made a splash in this country with a wild late rush to be third in the Juvenile Turf Sprint on Breeders’ Cup weekend last fall. Since making California her permanent home, she’s run well in three straight sprint starts. I think she’s very much the one to beat. However, there are a slew of other viable options at more inviting prices. The undefeated Golden Days clearly has talent as she gets a class test. March X Press has run well in a number of races and should find this six furlong distance to her liking. With the scratch of longshot Wegetsdamunnys, my top pick becomes Raucous, who looks interesting while cutting back to a sprint, given her closing style. She got a great ride from Eric Cancel when sneaking up the rail to win the Chelsey Flower last year, but she then followed that up with an even better effort in the Jimmy Durante at Del Mar. Racing keenly throughout, she made an early move to the lead at the top of the stretch before getting run down late by the talented Daddy Is a Legend. Given her quick turn of foot, this daughter of Speightstown strikes me as a filly that should appreciate the turnback in distance. Over the past five years, Christophe Clement is 13 for 51 (25 percent, $2.63 ROI) with horses coming off layoffs of 120 to 240 days in turf sprints.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 5,7,10,13
RACE 9: OUT OF ORBIT (#9)
I have no issues with either of the well-bred first-time starters in this spot. Chad Brown sends out Myhartblongstodaddy, who is by good turf sire Scat Daddy and out of a dam who was stakes-placed on grass. Danny Gargan is not as well known for his success with debut runners, but he is certainly capable of having one ready. He dispatches Dr. Melfi, a daughter of Freud who is a half-sister to four turf winners, including stakes winner Baffle Me. They’ll both be on my tickets, but I have to take a shot with one of the runners who is switching surfaces. Out of Orbit made three starts on dirt this winter and did not run particularly well in any of them. Her best effort came Feb. 24 over a sealed track when she made a move to get into second while racing wide against a rail bias. She will have to do better here, but she is certainly bred to move up with this switch to turf. She is by decent turf sire Malibu Moon and is out of Kibosh, a multiple turf winner. She gets a rider upgrade to Jose Lezcano for this start.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,7,8,10
Picks & Plays for Saturday, April 14
by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 4 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 2: 7 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 3: 3 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 4: 4 - 2 - 1/1A - 5
Race 5: 6 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 6: 2 - 8 - 1/1A - 3
Race 7: 5 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 8: 2 - 4 - 3 - 8
Race 9: 5 - 4 - 6 - 7
TOP PLAYS
RACE 5: CALIFORNIA SWING (#6)
Kulin Rock is the horse to beat by a narrow margin. While he lost twice at this level at Gulfstream, he actually ran quite well in both races. He appeared to move too soon Feb. 18 while going a distance that may be too far for him, and then last time, he came flying with a late rush against a tougher field than this one. I prefer him to the likely co-favorite Battle of Blenheim. This horse finally won his maiden last time, but Chad Brown does not have great numbers with runners ages 4 and up coming off maiden wins in turf routes. I respect the Tagg runner, but I want to take a shot with a horse who I think will offer better value. California Swing’s prior turf efforts are not good enough to beat this field. However, you can make excuses for his turf tries at the end of last season, as he got wide trips. Now he’s in the barn of Mike Maker, who is as skilled a turf claiming trainer as there is in the country. Over the past five years, he is 10 for 31 (32 percent, $3.24 ROI) second off the claim with horses switching from dirt to turf. This horse actually showed improved form racing on dirt this winter, and I like that Maker is placing him in such an ambitious spot for his switch back to grass. He has good tactical speed, so he should be able to sit a stalking trip just in behind the likely speeds Mr. Dougie Fresh and Attribute.
Win: 6
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 2,6 with 1,3,5 with 2,6
RACE 6: KINGDOM’S QUEEN (#2)
The Chad Brown entry is likely to go off favored here. Irad Ortiz Jr. was named on the half with experience, Coexistence, but I actually prefer the first-time starter, Confirmation Bias. The latter is a daughter of capable turf sire Orb and comes from a good female family that did include one turf winner. Coexistence has less obvious turf pedigree, but she has a right to move forward off her debut. This pair is dangerous, but I want to look in another direction. Among the first-time starters, the one with the most convincing turf pedigree is Kingdom’s Queen. This filly is by Animal Kingdom and out of a graded turf stakes-winning dam. She’s also a half-sister to a few turf winners, including multiple stakes winner Mr. Gruff. David Donk is not known as a prolific debut trainer, but he actually has had some modest success with firsters on turf. Over the past five years, while he’s just 3 for 37 with horses making their turf debuts, 11 of those horses finished in the exacta, with some big prices in the mix. In addition to the Brown entry, I’ll use her with Soar From Shadows, who ran an improved race in her turf debut down in Florida and has a right to take another step forward.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,8
RACE 7: EKHTIBAAR (#5)
I have no knocks against Mr. Buff, who is due to win at this level following three excellent runner-up finishes to some talented horses. He is likely to play out as the controlling speed here and should be awfully tough to beat at a very short price. The only horse who appears to have any chance to beat him is Ekhtibaar, and I’ll make this likely second choice my top pick. He’s yet to run fast enough to beat Mr. Buff if that one repeats his last race. However, Ekhtibaar does have room for improvement, and his last race is actually much better than it seems. He got squeezed back after breaking a bit slowly and had to race in tight quarters for most of the race. After an uncomfortable trip, he actually did well to get up for third once in the clear late. The return to a one-turn mile suits him well.
Win: 5
Trifecta: 5 with 1 with 3,4,7
RACE 8: BARBAROSSA (#2)
All Systems Go ran very well in his debut down at Gulfstream. There were some decent runners in the field whom he defeated, and he finished powerfully, suggesting that the extra furlong he has to deal with today should not be a major issue. However, this is a step up in class, and there are other viable runners in this race who have proven themselves going this distance and have run well in New York. I prefer Pletcher’s other horse, Barbarossa. This New York-bred was extremely impressive when winning his maiden going seven furlongs at Belmont last fall. He lost as the favorite twice at Gulfstream Park, but you can make the argument that neither of those races was at an ideal distance. The two turns of that Dec. 23 race may be a bit far for him, and five furlongs looks to be a bit shorter than he really wants to go. Today’s sixfurlong trip should be perfect, and he figures to sit a great trip sitting just behind the speeds drawn to his outside. I’ll use him with the favorite as well as Ambassador Jim, who ran well as a 2-year-old. Christophe Clement has excellent statistics bringing horses back off layoffs in turf sprints.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,8
Trifecta: 2 with 3,4 with 3,4,6,8
RACE 9: SANSIBAR JEWEL (#5)
There are many contenders in this intriguing maiden race that ends the card. The two likely to attract the most attention are the pair from the Chad Brown barn. Too Cool to Dance earned a higher speed figure for her debut, but she worked out a pretty good trip after getting steadied back at the start. Jose Ortiz saved ground all the way and was able to sneak through inside at the top of the stretch before just finishing off flatly. I actually prefer Reversethedecision, who comes out of the slower race. This filly was slow out of the gate and reserved at the back of the pack for much of the way. She was still far back at the top of the stretch, but finished with a rush in the last eighth of a mile to get up for third despite racing greenly. I think this one has more room for improvement second time out. I’ll use both of them, but I think there are some others that figure to offer better value. Amazing Audrey ran very well in her second start, and Hot Cash has a right to improve after getting a wide trip at Gulfstream. However, the horse that interests me most is Sansibar Jewel, who makes her first start in this country. Christophe Clement has good numbers with foreign shippers coming off layoffs, as well as with horses getting Lasix for the first time. This filly has an awesome pedigree. She is a half-sister to Group 1 turf winner Royal Diamond and Group 2 turf winner Princess Highway. It's worth noting that this filly is a daughter of Street Cry, a sire whose progeny often need firm going to run well on turf. Sansibar Jewel got nothing of the sort in her three starts in Ireland, racing over boggy conditions every time. I think that could have been the undoing of a filly that was regarded highly enough to go off at odds-on prices in two of those races. The big gaps between starts may also be indicative of other problems, so perhaps Lasix will make a big difference for her as well. She could get a little lost in the wagering here with so many other attractive runners shipping up from Florida.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,6,7,8
