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Featured Race:
Race 1
Approx. Post Time: 12 50 PM (Dec 13)
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by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 2: 6 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 3: 1/1A - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 4: 1 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 5: 3 - 8 - 1 - 4
Race 6: 1 - 3 - 2 - 1A
Race 7: 5 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 8: 2 - 3 - 7 - 6
RACE 5: CARIBA (#3)
There are some very intriguing first-time starters in this maiden event. The one that is likely to attract the most support is Katama Moonlight, who goes out for Chad Brown. While this filly has the pedigree to be a nice horse, as the $400,000 purchase price would suggest, it’s really more of a route pedigree. Her full brother Noble Moon was best around two turns on the dirt, winning the Grade 2 Jerome a few years ago. I’m definitely using her, but there are others that have a right to do well on first asking, and you’re not getting any value with this one. Perhaps the most intriguing new face is Birdy Num, a $1 million yearling purchase who makes her debut for Tom Albertrani. While this barn isn’t renowned for its success on debut, Albertrani has gotten firsters to win for these owners on several occasions over the past few seasons. This filly has loads of pedigree, as her dam won the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, and she is a full sister to stakes winner Believe in Royalty. She’s trained well in the morning, so I would take this one very seriously. I could also give a look to horses like Moon and Stars or Cover Photo, but the board will be my guide. My top pick is one of the few fillies with experience. I have to bet back Cariba off her debut effort. I had liked her quite a bit that day, but she took very little play, going off at 7-1. They paid a lot of money for this daughter of Cairo Prince, and it’s easy to see why. Her dam is a half-sister to Hello Liberty, who won the Grade 2 Nassau County and was second in the Grade 1 Acorn, as well as dirt sprint stakes winner Pious Ashley. I had watched a few of this filly’s morning workouts prior to her debut, and while they weren’t fast drills, I loved the way she moved over the ground. Her debut effort was a disappointment, but she was also very green, trying to lug in throughout the stretch run under a frustrated Junior Alvarado. She’s bred to sprint, and I think we’ll see a more professional effort this time.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,7,8
Trifecta: 3 with 1,8 with 1,4,7,8,9
RACE 6: BEACHSIDE (#1)
This New York-bred allowance race drew some promising runners, and topping that list is the exciting colt Le General. This chestnut son of Lemon Drop Kid dazzled in his maiden victory last time, running away from the field with ease. He earned an impressive 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance, a number that would make him pretty formidable in most open races at this level. If he repeats that performance, he is going to win right back, but he does have a few hurdles to overcome. He’s stretching out two additional furlongs in a race where others have already proven themselves over a route of ground, and he’ll be racing over a fast track for the first time. I have some reservations, but he is clearly the most likely winner. I’m taking a shot against this horse with Beachside. I wish he wasn’t part of a coupled entry with Just Right, since that runner will drive down his price. However, I’ve liked all of this colt’s races, and he really responded well to the stretch-out in distance last time. He ran deceptively well in his pair of dirt sprints, but he ran like a horse that would relish more ground, and that proved to be the case. I like that he showed improved early speed that day, and the race came up fairly fast. If Le General takes a step backward on the stretch-out, I think Beachside will be a formidable foe for the favorite.
Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,3
RACE 7: BON RAISON (#5)
At first glance, Sanavi just looks too good for this field. He’s been in great form recently, winning two of his three starts since coming to the East Coast. The last two wins came at Belmont around one turn for Jeremiah Englehart, and I thought he ran fine in those races. My problem is that he worked out absolutely perfect trips on both occasions, and I wonder if he’s going to be quite as effective stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. He’s the horse to beat, but he doesn’t have any real speed figure advantage looking at TimeformUS numbers, and I think he’s somewhat vulnerable at a short price. Sparty Boy is the wild card in this field, since he earned a very competitive speed figure last time, but did so against $10,000 claimers. It’s possible that he is just a different horse for Rudy Rodriguez, but I want to see some additional confirmation before I support him in a race this tough. One of the primary features of this race is the overall lack of early speed. The Pace Projector is predicting that Bon Raison will be clearly in front through the early going in a situation that favors the leader, and I think that could make him very dangerous. There is just no one to go with this horse early, and Mike Luzzi figures to be aggressive. Some may be deterred by his poor effort going this distance in the Discovery last time, but that came against much tougher horses. Prior to that he had been in very good form, albeit during a time when Gary Contessa’s runners were all performing well. Even his fourth-place finish in the Bold Ruler was pretty good and would give him a major chance in this race. With this barn not going quite as well and Mike Luzzi named to ride, Bon Raison figures to go off at a square price this time.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 2,5 with 2,5 with 3,4,6
RACE 8: I’M AN OCALA DUDE (#2)
It’s hard to have much faith in any of the likely short prices given the combination of dropdowns and layoffs. I suppose Fillet of Sole is the horse to beat given his pair of recent runner-up finishes at this level. However, Jason Servis not shown much confidence in him since claiming back in May. This is the shortest distance that he’s gone since his 2-year-old season, and I’m concerned that he may not possess the speed to keep up with these in the early going. I’m using him defensively, but I prefer others. The short-priced runner that I’m most strongly against is Devine Entry. This horse has run well on dirt only at Laurel and it’s never a good sign when Linda Rice is dropping horses in class so drastically. Baseline would be more appealing if not for his dull effort on Nov. 17, which leads me to believe that 6 furlongs may just be too short for him. Given my reservations about the aforementioned contenders, I’m taking a shot with I’m an Ocala Dude. He, too, has his flaws, but at least Michelle Nevin has encouraging numbers in this situation. Over the past 5 years, she is 11 for 22 (50 percent, $3.08 ROI) with horses dropping in claiming price by 50 percent or more in dirt sprints. I’m an Ocala Dude is returning from the layoff as a new gelding, and he has back form that would make him a major player in this race. He obviously wasn’t in great form over the summer, but at least he handled this Aqueduct surface last winter, running all of his best career races over this strip.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,7
by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 4 - 5 - 6 - 10
Race 2: 8 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 3: 3 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 4: 10 - 8 - 5 - 1
Race 5: 3 - 5 - 2
Race 6: 4 - 8 - 1 - 3
Race 7: 1 - 2 - 9 - 7
Race 8: 2 - 1 - 5 - 7
Race 9: 8 - 14 - 1 - 5
RACE 2: MOONDANCE JOY (#8)
With the scratch of reliable favorite My Won Love, Lady Bergen becomes the horse to beat. She is the wild card of this field. At her best, she could destroy this group, but it’s hard to know what we’re going to get out of her. She put in some fantastic performances when she was initially transferred into Jason Servis’s barn, but she’s since gone off form. Her disgraceful loss at Saratoga two back was a sign of things to come, and now she finds herself dropping in for the tag. She’s supposed to face early pressure from Sing for Beauty and potentially some others, so I don’t trust her. A couple of fillies exit a $32,000 open claimer on Nov. 14. The race came up unusually slow for the class level, as Clairvoyant Lady won despite breaking slowly. I thought Archumybaby didn’t have much of an excuse that day, as she stalked the slow pace and had no answer in the lane. However, I would be willing to give Moondance Joy another chance, despite the fact that she finished just behind that rival in fourth. This mare was making her first start in nearly a year after something clearly went wrong at the end of her 2017 campaign. Considering the dynamics of that Nov. 14 affair, I thought Moondance Joy ran fairly well, as she was the only horse making a closing move through the stretch in a race where all of the fractions are color-coded blue in TimeformUS PPs. It’s encouraging that Junior Alvarado stays aboard and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her take a step forward in this second start back off the layoff.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,7
RACE 3: FIGHT ON LUCY (#3)
Midnitesalright and Princess Pinky are likely to vie for favoritism in this spot. The former may have the upper hand, since she has more experience sprinting and came very close to winning her last start. On the other hand, she may prefer a wet track, which she won’t get Saturday. Princess Pinky may have run the best race of any of these last time, but that came over a route of ground. The winner of that race returned to run well in a dirt stakes, so I think the performance is legitimate. I just question her speed going this distance. I’m definitely using both of these prominently, but I don’t think either has much margin for error. I’m taking a shot against these two with Fight On Lucy. This Pat Kelly-trained filly is going to be a more enticing price, and I think she has a legitimate chance to upset the favorites. Despite running in off-the-turf races in both of her starts thus far, she’s actually faced some decent fields. Her debut race in October came up pretty fast, and then last time I thought she ran deceptively well behind the promising filly Forever Changed, who returned to win right back on Friday. Additionally, a couple of horses that finished behind her that day have already returned to run well. I think that Fight On Lucy may benefit significantly from the addition of blinkers. She was pretty green in her last race, as she was trying to lug in throughout the stretch, and this equipment change could correct that. At bigger prices, I also want to consider some of the first-time starters. The one that I find most intriguing is longshot Semaya, as she goes out for the sneaky Dennis Lalman, who won with a first-time starter at a big price last winter. Despite selling for a cheap price, she has pedigree to be a runner.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5,6
Trifecta: 3 with 1,2 with 1,2,4,5,6
RACE 4: OVERLAND (#10)
The two horses likely to attract the most support finished less than a length apart going this distance on Nov. 10. Not That Brady, dismissed at 39-1, just held off Scott Brown that day in a race that garnered an unusually fast speed figure, so you have to wonder about whether either of these horses will be able to replicate that performance. The winner of the race, Beachside, is a somewhat talented New York-bred this trio finished over 11 lengths clear of the rest of the field, so it’s definitely conceivable that it was just a very fast race. Despite going off at astronomical odds, Not That Brady is the one that probably ran the best race, as he set a very fast early pace and gamely held on for the place. I’m using both of these horses. I’m less enthusiastic about some others that could attract support. Pier Forty has had his chances, and Bobby Man didn’t run that well in his dirt debut last time. Instead, I’m going to take a shot against the favorites with Overland. This expensive yearling purchase stretches out for the first time following an encouraging debut at Belmont. He’s obviously not a sprinter as a son of Flatter, so he should appreciate the added ground. While that was an off-the-turf race, he was one of the Main Track Only entrants, and he actually ran on well through the stretch after getting outrun early. The two finishers in that race have ability and I think this runner has a right to do much better in his second start as he returns as a new gelding. The fact that Brad Cox has bypassed the top riders to give Mike Luzzi a chance should ensure that we get a slightly better price that we otherwise would have.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 5,8
RACE 5: SOWER (#3)
With the scratch of main rival Dream Pauline, Vertical Oaks becomes a prohibitive favorite. This filly had everything break in her favor on the front end when she won the Dream Supreme at Churchill Downs last time out. Dream Pauline was never able to issue a serious challenge after encountering trouble through the first half of the race, and Verical Oak coasted to victory after setting slow early fractions. Even with Dream Pauline in the race, I was actually interested in a different chestnut 3-year-old filly. Sower kept very good company against members of her own age group through the summer. I thought she ran very well to be third in the Victory Ride in July after chasing a hot pace. She was no match for the talented Dream Tree in the Prioress at Saratoga and didn’t handle the two turns of the Charles Town Oaks, but I liked the way she bounced back with a top effort at Belmont last time. She clearly handles a wet track, but she was a commanding winner of that Pumpkin Pie, leading every step of the way. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, and I think Sower could be the one that finds herself in front. I know she is projected to be stalking early, but that’s primarily based on her last two efforts, which featured more moderate paces. Cutting back to 6 furlongs, I expect Junior Alvarado to be aggressive and I think Sower can take them all the way.
Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 2,5
RACE 6: SOL THE FREUD (#4)
Bavaro is a dangerous contender as he drops in class for Jeremiah Englehart after spending most of his year running at Finger Lakes. While I’m generally skeptical of speed figures earned at that track, Bavaro has put forth competitive efforts at NYRA before, and I thought he ran reasonably well against a much tougher field last time out. The 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he was assigned for that effort makes him the horse to beat, and the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be able to control the early tempo. My only real concern with him is that he didn’t break sharply last time. He was more than a length behind Stoney Bennett immediately after the start that day and had to be hustled into position. I never like to see horses like this start to lose their gate speed, especially as they drop in class. Nevertheless, I trust him more than some others who figure to attract support. Summer Bourbon is a wild card as he is claimed back by Rudy Rodriguez. He ran one stellar race for this barn over the summer, but that performance is surrounded by a bunch of merely decent efforts. He went badly off form at Saratoga and I have doubts that he can get back to his top races here. I’m taking a shot against these horses with Sol the Freud. I’m just not enamored with the class droppers, and I think this reliable gelding could outrun his odds. He ran well at this level last winter, and he’s performed adequately in a few starts since returning from the layoff this summer. Last time out, I thought he ran better than it appears. His rider got him caught in behind a wall of horses at the top of the stretch, and I thought he made an unwise decision to alter course to the rail at the eighth pole. With a clear path through the lane, this horse could have easily been second. He’s going to get overlooked due to the connections, but he’s fast enough to win.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3,5,8
RACE 8: BLUEGRASS JAMBOREE (#2)
Pauseforthecause is a deserving favorite off the strength of her third-place finish behind top New York-breds Highway Star and Satisfy in the Iroquois on Empire Showcase Day. This improving 3-year-old filly had hinted at having significantly stepped forward over the summer, and she confirmed that progression last time out. My only concern is that I have a few doubts about the speed figures assigned to that Iroquois, since a number of participants have returned to run slower in subsequent starts. Yet that’s only a minor critique of a filly who deserves respect in this spot. Our Circle of Love also figures to attract some attention following her blowout maiden win over this strip. She broke her string of second place finishes in decisive fashion last time out, running a speed figure that certainly puts her in the mix against winners. However, she beat a very weak field that day and I want to see her repeat that performance against serious competition. I also wouldn’t totally dismiss Michelle Nevin’s other horse, Byself, who has worked her way through New York-bred company in workmanlike fashion. Her adaptable running style should allow her to put forth a respectable effort. I’m using these fillies, but my top pick is Bluegrass Jamboree. This filly has taken a step forward with each successive start since returning from a layoff over the summer. She ran deceptively well two back when she made a wide move over a track that was favoring inside paths. Then last time, I thought she might have run the best race after making an early move to the lead in a race that was dominated by closers. I’m not convinced that she relishes a wet track, so I like that she’s getting back on fast going. For whatever reason, she’s typically dismissed at generous odds and I don’t anticipate that will change this time.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,7
Trifecta: 2 with 1,5 with 1,5,6,7
by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 2 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 2: 7 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 3: 5 - 4 - 9 - 1
Race 4: 2 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 5: 3 - 7 - 4 - 5
Race 6: 3 - 9 - 5 - 7
Race 7: 11 - 1/1A - 9 - 6
Race 8: 9 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 9: 7 - 2 - 8 - 3
RACE 2: NO DISTORTION (#7)
This bottom-level claiming race features a number of horses at short prices who are difficult to trust. One of those is Alright Alright, who may end up going off as the favorite based on his win at this level last month. He ran well to close down the heavy favorite Big Guy Ian, and was subsequently flattered when that runner returned to win with an improved speed figure next time out. Alright Alright, like many of his competitors, has back form that would easily beat this field, but it’s unclear what sort of performance we’ll get from him. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will have a significant advantage given the lack of speed in this race. Those dynamics could work against Saratoga Heater, who also figures to attract some support. He’s faced tougher company in all of his starts for Rudy Rodriguez, but he’s failed to win any of those races and now returns from a lengthy layoff. Over the past five years, Rudy is just 2 for 32 (6 percent, $0.57 ROI) off layoffs of 100 to 200 days in dirt sprints. The best alternative to Alright Alright is probably No Distortion, who figures to work out a good trip stalking just outside the likely pacesetter. This horse has been in some strong barns during his career, but he’s held his form well ever since the claim by new trainer Dermot Magner. He’s never loved wet tracks, so I can excuse his effort two back over a sealed surface. I thought he actually ran fairly well last time, returning on just eight days’ rest to register a distance second-place finish in a very fast race at this level. A mile is just a bit too far for him at this stage of his career, so I like this turnback to 6 furlongs.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,5,6
Trifecta: 2,7 with 2,7 with 3,5,6
RACE 3: PRINCESS MIKAYAH (#5)
Tequila Sunday found the right field last time as she destroyed a group of maidens by nearly seven lengths as the odds-on favorite. While she didn’t earn a particularly impressive speed figure for that performance, she has plenty of prior numbers on the dirt that would make her formidable again, even as she steps up against winners. Furthermore, she broke her maiden over a wet track, which she has never cared for, so it’s conceivable that she could run faster getting back on a fast surface. I think she’s very much the horse to beat, primarily because I’m not enamored with her two main rivals. Laura’s Patriot is going to take money based on her superior turf speed figures, but she’s never run particularly well on dirt and may not possess the stamina to get a mile on this surface. I think this is a spot where we can get a bit more creative, so I’m taking a shot with Princess Mikayah. Looking purely at speed figures, this filly is every bit as fast as Tequila Sunday and she’s going to be dismissed at a significantly higher price. She’s made four starts against winners, and I think she’s run reasonably well in a couple of those races. She put forth what was arguably the best performance of her career two back on Sept. 27, when she rushed up to chase the pace while racing wide on a day when you wanted to save as much ground as possible on the main track. Then last time she actually ran much better than it seems after getting shuffled out of position heading into the turn. She appeared hopelessly beaten at the top of the stretch but stayed on well to pass half the field in the lane. The stretch-out to a mile is a question mark, but I like this rider switch to Luis Reyes, who is easily the most accomplished jockey she’s had on her back in recent months.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,9
RACE 4: SEPTEMBER GURL (#2)
Morning line favorite Princess Pinky is expected to scratch in favor of a maiden race on Saturday, so I’m not going to discuss her. Given that filly’s absence, Abraxan is likely to inherit the favorite’s role. I don’t have anything particularly clever to say about this filly. She’s just run well in both of her career starts, and will probably break her maiden this time unless one of her rivals steps forward significantly. She faced a solid field in her debut despite that being an off the turf event, and she had the misfortune of running into a live first time starter last time out. Many will consider Diamond Princess to be her main rival, and there are definitely some things to like about this Linda Rice trainee. Her debut on dirt was not nearly as bad as it seems. She actually flipped in the paddock prior to that race and there was some brief speculation that she might be scratched. She ended up participating, but her performance was consistent with her pre-race antics. She was unfocused throughout and never seemed to have her mind on competing. That said, she still beat half the field and only finished 5 1/4 lengths behind Abraxan. She tried turf last time, since she’s bred for that surface, but she didn’t improve much so now she’s back on the main track. I think she definitely has a right to move forward, but her price will take a significant hit now that she’s the primary alternative. It was a first time starter that defeated Abraxan last time, and I think that could happen again. September Gurl is an intriguing new face in this group as she ships up from Parx to make her debut. Trainer Juan Carlos Guerrero doesn’t bring that many horses to NYRA, but he’s had success when he’s done so. Operating primarily as a claiming trainer, Guerrero hasn’t sent out many first time starters, winning with just one at a big price over the past 5 years. Notably, this filly was entered and scratched at Aqueduct about 3 weeks ago with Irad Ortiz named to ride her. He and his brother have gone south by this point, but I’m nevertheless going to take that as a sign that she’s live. This filly showed good speed in her OBS Sales workout in June, and she’s bred to be quick. Her dam ran on turf but showed some real talent sprinting in her brief career, and that dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning New York-bred sprinter Fingerpainter.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4
RACE 6: FLAT CALM (#3)
Cartwheel is likely to go off as the favorite in this spot off the strength of her two most recent efforts sprinting. She destroyed an overmatched field in an off-the-turf race at Saratoga in August and then followed that with a solid runner-up performance at this level last time. On the surface, those efforts look pretty appealing, as she earned speed figures that would make her formidable against this group. However, I thought she had a very favorable trip last time, as fellow speeds conceded the lead to her through moderate fractions. This time, she’s going to have to rally from off the pace and I haven’t seen her overcome adversity in her prior starts. I’m somewhat against her this time. Of the runners exiting that Oct. 14 race at this level, I actually prefer Noble Freud. She was unwisely rated that day despite appearing to be the controlling speed. This time, she draws an advantageous outside post position, and Manny Franco should send her to the front, especially after the scratch of main pace rival Ribbonite.Linda Rice has two entrants, both of whom are somewhat appealing. Shimmering Moon figures to be a bigger price, and she’s one that I would definitely use. Her trainer has solid numbers off trainer switches in dirt sprints and this mare has run races that would make her awfully tough in this spot. However, the layoff is a concern and her form prior to the break is of some concern. I’m more interested in Flat Calm, who cuts back in distance after trying a mile last time. She actually ran very well within the context of that race, as she made the first move into an honest pace that fell apart. She also proved that she’s able to rate successfully, and she will likely have to do that again in this spot. Prior to that most recent start, she had wired a field off the layoff in September, beating the much-improved Starlite Mission, who went on to place in a stakes. I think Flat Calm is quick enough to handle six furlongs and she’s unlikely to be favored given the presence of Cartwheel.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,7,9
Trifecta: 3 with 5,9 with 2,4,5,7,9
by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 6 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 2: 2 - 8 - 6 - 10
Race 3: 1 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 4: 7 - 4 - 10 - 5
Race 5: 9 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 6: 6 - 4 - 9 - 1
Race 7: 3 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 8: 2 - 3 - 10 - 6
RACE 1: I’M AN OCALA DUDE (#6)
This is the first of many perplexing races on this Sunday card. It’s hard to have much faith in any of the likely short prices given the combination of dropdowns and layoffs. I suppose Javelin is the horse to beat given his overall consistency and a string of speed figures that would win most races at this level. However, he hasn’t been seen in exactly 6 months and he’s now dropping down to the lowest level of his career. His two prior starts off shorter layoffs have been lackluster. I have to use him, but he’s difficult to trust. The horse that I’m most strongly against is Devine Entry. This horse has run well on dirt only at Laurel and it’s never a good sign when Linda Rice is dropping horses in class so drastically. Baseline would be more appealing if not for his dull effort on Nov. 17, which leads me to believe that 6 furlongs may just be too short for him. Given my reservations about the aforementioned contenders, I’m taking a shot with I’m an Ocala Dude. He, too, has his flaws, but at least Michelle Nevin has encouraging numbers in this situation. Over the past 5 years, she is 11 for 22 (50 percent, $3.08 ROI) with horses dropping in claiming price by 50 percent or more in dirt sprints. I’m an Ocala Dude is returning from the layoff as a new gelding, and he has back form that would make him a major player in this race. He obviously wasn’t in great form over the summer, but at least he handled this Aqueduct surface last winter, running all of his best career races over this strip. I like the outside post position for him given the murky pace scenario.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3
RACE 5: FIGHT ON LUCY (#9)
Midnitesalright is likely to go off as a strong favorite in this race after threatening to break through at this level last time, only to be run down by her stablemate. There is rain in the Sunday morning forecast, and she clearly handles a sloppy track. None of the other fillies with experience appear to be quite as fast as her early, so she may just be able to lead these throughout over going that she appreciates. I’m definitely using her prominently, but she’s just so obvious, and then types of runners often end up getting overbet. Looking purely at speed figures, she’s not significantly faster than one of her main rivals, Fight On Lucy. This Pat Kelly-trained filly is going to be a much more enticing price, and I think she has a legitimate chance to upset the favorite. Despite running in off-the-turf races in both of her starts thus far, she’s actually faced some decent fields. Her debut race in October came up pretty fast, and then last time I thought she ran deceptively well behind the promising filly Forever Changed. A couple of horses that finished behind her that day have already returned to run well. I also think that Fight On Lucy may benefit significantly from the addition of blinkers this time. She was pretty green in her last race, as she was trying to lug in throughout the stretch, and this equipment change could correct that. At bigger prices, I also want to consider some of the first-time starters. The one that I find most intriguing is longshot Semaya, as she goes out for the sneaky Dennis Lalman, who won with a first-time starter at a big price last winter. Despite selling for a cheap price, she has pedigree to be a runner.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,5,6,7,11
RACE 7: WINE NOT (#3)
This allowance race is the highlight of the card. The horse to beat is probably Business Cycle off his recent maiden victory over this strip. While it took him five tries to break through with his first win, he’s run competitive speed figures in all of his races and has kept decent company throughout his brief career. He got an unexpected challenge from longshot Zealous in the stretch last time, but that runner returned to validate his performance with a runner-up finish in a fast maiden race earlier this week. The one knock against Business Cycle is the anticipated short price. I’m not willing to bet him as the favorite, especially considering Chad Brown’s mediocre record with these types. Over the past five years, Brown is just 4 for 18 ($1.10 ROI) with 4-year-old and older last-out maiden winners on the dirt. One of his main rivals is Aveenu Malcainu, who has been an underachiever for Jeremiah Englehart. He finally got back to the winner’s circle two back at Belmont, but the time of that race has been disputed, and I’m still waiting to see him validate that career-best speed figure. I’m trying to beat these horses with Wine Not, who should be around the second or third choice in this field. The main knock against this gelding is that he so rarely wins, having collected his last victory in July 2017. However, he’s been entered in some tough spots this year, and I feel that he’s actually been in the best form of his career since the early summer. He ran a strong race to be a close fourth in the Empire Classic two back, and then last time he actually ran on well to be third despite getting very little pace to close into on Nov. 4. I thought he ran much better than today’s rival Barahin on that occasion, and I think Wine Not is more likely to appreciate this slight stretch-out. I’ve always felt that a one-turn mile is best for him, and he’s so rarely focused on races going this exact distance.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5,6
Trifecta: 3 with 1,5 with 1,2,5,6,7
by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 1 - 9 - 5
Race 2: 8 - 1 - 6 - 9
Race 3: 16 - 10 - 6 - 12
Race 4: 3 - 1 - 4 - 7
Race 5: 11 - 2 - 13 - 12
Race 6: 8 - 1 - 7 - 4
Race 7: 9 - 14 - 3 - 6
Race 8: 5 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 9: 1 - 2 - 6 - 8
Race 10: 2 - 10 - 11 - 6
RACE 4: FILLY JOEL (#3)
Enliven is likely to go off at a very short price in this Demoiselle, and the bulk of that support will be based on her runner-up finish in the Tempted last time. That race came up very fast in terms of speed figures, though the TimeformUS numbers have it slightly slower than others. While Enliven ran fine within the context of that Tempted, I still think we’re waiting for some confirmation that longshot winner Oxy Lady is quite as good as the speed figures suggest. While her dam could get 1 1/8 miles, this family is probably best at or around a mile. I’m using her prominently, but I think others will offer much better value. I want to bet Filly Joel. This daughter of Dialed In ran like one that would appreciate more ground in her first couple of sprint starts, and she confirmed that was the case when she finally stretched out last time. She showed much better early speed in that 1 1/16-mile maiden event, and easily took over in the lane to register a decisive win. Her 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the highest number in the field, and I don’t see any reason why she won’t be able to repeat it going this distance around two turns. In my opinion, she should be a close second choice around 5-2, and I think you’ll get a much better price than that. I also wouldn’t totally discount Positive Spirit. Rodolphe Brisset has very good numbers off maiden wins on the dirt (5 for 8, $5.05 ROI), but this filly needs to run much faster to contend here.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,7
Trifecta: 3 with 1,4 with 1,4,5,6,7
RACE 6: PACIFIC WIND (#8)
Marley’s Freedom is obviously the class of this field, but I think it’s always wise to be somewhat skeptical of horses that are running back on relatively short rest after the Breeders’ Cup. While it’s fair to say that she might have won that Filly and Mare Sprint with a better trip, it’s not as if she was ever going to be a decisive winner over what was a pretty mediocre field. That was not the same Marley’s Freedom that we saw winning the Ballerina at Saratoga, and that is the crux of the problem with this filly. When she’s at her best, she’s brilliant, but we’ve only seen that version of her a couple of times. Furthermore, she has to stretch out in distance for the first time against a field with some quality runners. I’m not way against her, but I don’t see any value in picking her on top. There are a number of legitimate alternatives to consider. The scratch of Sower makes Come Dancing far more dangerous as the likely controlling speed. I'm not convinced that she's quite good enough to win this race, but she's a talented filly who has a right to lead these for a long way. I'm upgrading her, but my top pick is Pacific Wind. I’ll admit that I’ve never been the biggest fan of this filly, but I think her recent form is not quite as poor as it seems. She never had a fair chance in that Shuvee two back after the pace failed to materialize and she raced wide around the track. I thought she actually ran a decent race in the Spinster when she was a little too close to the pace going a distance that is likely too far for her. She ran the two best dirt races of her career going a flat mile back in the spring, and I think this turnback to a one-turn race suits her perfectly. There is supposed to be some pace for her to close into, and Irad Ortiz lands here despite seemingly having options on two others in this field.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,4,7
Trifecta: 1,8 with 1,8 with 4,5,7
RACE 7: AXTELL (#9)
This is yet another highly competitive turf race that helps break up the stakes action on this card. It’s hard to discern who will be favored, or even which horses are the ones to fear, since you can make cases for almost every member of this field. I suppose Dr. Shane is one of the most reliable runners in this race, since he always shows up with an honest effort and has run fast enough to put him on the cusp of winning at this level. He clearly likes this Aqueduct turf course, and I think he’s a real danger here if he merely repeats his last race. He was chasing a fast pace that fell apart and hung in well to be fourth. I’m using him, but my top pick is another runner out of that Nov. 9 race. Axtell didn’t get the right trip that day, as he found himself too far back early and went very wide around the turn as his rider almost appeared to give up prematurely. Furthermore, he’s never been a horse that has cared for any give in a turf course, as all of his competitive efforts have come over firm going. Based on the one turf sprint we saw on Friday, the outer turf course is closer to firm than good, so it should be to Axtell’s liking. When this runner is at his best, he’s as talented as any member of this field, and he always gets overlooked due to the low-profile connections. He’s my top pick, but there are many others to consider. I wouldn’t totally dismiss Almithmaar, though this switch back to turf late in the season seems a bit desperate. I also think Adonis Creed is one of the more talented members of this field, but I have serious concerns about him handling the distance. Fear would be more appealing if he had run better in his first start off the claim, but he’s not impossible either.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,3,6,8,10,14
RACE 8: NETWORK EFFECT (#5)
This Remsen shapes up as a two-horse race between a pair of very talented colts. Maximus Mischief is one of the most intriguing two-year-olds in the country, and it’s great to see him trying to tackle a true test for the first time. Depending on which speed figures you use, he’s at best the fastest 2-year-old in the country and at worst a serious rival for Network Effect. The Beyer figures for his first two starts are astronomical – a little too high, in my opinion. I have some doubts about the legitimacy of both figures and would rather use the TimeformUS Speed Figures when making comparisons to other horses in this field. And that’s not to suggest that his TimeformUS Figures are slow. The 116 that he was assigned for his allowance win last time is still 1 point faster than Network Effect’s Nashua. The real question for Maximus Mischief is the distance. He’s a son of Into Mischief out of a Songandaprayer mare, so 1 1/8 miles may be a stretch. His dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Secret Compass, who could go at least 1 1/16 miles. Physically, he’s an imposing colt who appears to be fairly handy. Given the presence of fellow speed types like Gladiator King, he may have to sit off another rival and stalk for the first time. A colt as talented as Maximus Mischief may be able to overcome over that, but I’d much rather take Network Effect at what figures to be a similar price. Despite his modest pedigree, this Chad Brown trainee runs like 1 1/8 miles should be no problem at all. I liked his debut and I thought his runner-up effort in the Remsen was fairly encouraging. The race came up extremely fast, and he finished well clear of third-place finisher Call Paul, a graded stakes winner in his own right. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which should only help his cause, and I just think he’s going to offer enough value at any price over 6-5.
Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 1,3,6
Trifecta: 5 with 6 with 1,3,7
RACE 9: MENDELSSOHN (#1)
This may not be the best Cigar Mile field that we’ve ever seen, but it’s a competitive race with many intriguing contenders. I’ve become a fan of Mendelssohn over the course of this season, and I’m not going to abandon him now despite the fact that he’s likely to go off at a short price. Aidan O’Brien deserves high accolades for the job he’s done with this horse. He set out a plan to develop a successful dirt horse after a disappointment in the Kentucky Derby, and stuck to it through the fall. Some may hold his one-mile effort in the Dwyer against him, but you have to realize that was a mere stepping-stone to targets later in the season, so we did not see the best version of Mendelssohn that day. I thought he put in excellent runs in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders’ Cup Classic, laying down fast fractions on both occasions. I’ve always thought 10 furlongs was a bit of a stretch for him, so this turnback may actually suit him and I don’t think the rail draw is any concern given the gate speed he’s shown recently. Many will consider Copper Town to be his main rival, and he is the wild card in this field. If he’s able to get back to his October 2017 victory over Patternrecognition, he’ll be a serious win candidate. However, I have to be skeptical of these Todd Pletcher horses trying to return to top form in their 4-year-old seasons, given how poorly many have run in recent months. The other horse I would want to use is Sunny Ridge, who beat a rail bias when he was second to Patternrecognition in the Kelso. He should get some pace to close into and is capable of running fast enough to be competitive here if he shows up with a top effort. At a much bigger price, I also want to include True Timber underneath in larger exotic wagers. This horse was shuffled out of position on the turn last time but had previously been in the best form of his career racing around one turn.
Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,5,6,8
Trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with 5,6,8
RACE 10: LEM ME TEL YA (#2)
This finale is quite the puzzle. Perhaps it’s just as easy as defaulting to Quest for Fire, who will undoubtedly win this race if he runs as fast as he did in his debut effort on Mar. 18. While he was allowed to set a moderate pace for the distance, the speed figures came back extremely high. That said, it’s hard to know how much stock to put in those numbers. It was the first race on the card on a day when the main track was deep and seemingly changing throughout the afternoon. While Zonic, who finished second, is a decent horse, it’s not as if he provides concrete validation for Quest for Fire’s effort. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace in this race, which is incongruous with the blue color-coded pace figures showing in Quest for Fire’s debut. Early Pace Ratings indicate that he’s fast enough to make the lead anyway, but he’s going to have a slew of runners breathing down his neck early. That’s a tall order for any horse, especially one coming off a significant layoff. I’m somewhat against him, but I won’t be surprised when he wins. I have no major knocks against Charlie Baker’s other horse, Smokin Platinum. I know some will be deterred by the rider switch to Mike Luzzi, but this colt has run well in both of his starts since returning from a layoff in October. That said, he probably was supposed to win last time when he looked full of run approaching the stretch and just hung in the final eighth of a mile. If I’m going to take a horse out of that Nov. 9 race, it’s Lem Me Tel Ya. I realize that he appears to be a bit slower than some of his main rivals, but I think this horse fits the profile of this race very well. So many of these horses need to be placed on or near the lead to be successful, and Lem Me Tel Ya is one of the few that has been successful rallying from off the pace. I can excuse his effort two back against tougher open company foes, and last time I thought he was always out of position rating behind a moderate pace the held together. He, too, hung in the late stages, but he had a right to do so given how well the leaders were finishing. I think it’s the right move to take the blinkers off this time, and I like that Javier Castellano stays aboard.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,6,7,10,11
by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 6 - 1A - 4
Race 2: 1 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 3: 12 - 3 - 6 - 10
Race 4: 5 - 8 - 7 - 6
Race 5: 1 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 6: 2 - 3 - 7 - 6
Race 7: 5 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 8: 5 - 10 - 2 - 1
Race 9: 3 - 1 - 11 - 10
RACE 1: MONTELEONE (#3)
Despite drawing just five betting interests after the scratch of McErin, this is still a highly competitive starter allowance race with a slew of intriguing contenders. Missle Bomb is a little cheaper than most of his rivals, but he’s earned a long string of competitive speed figures and must be respected in his first start off the claim by John Toscano, who is having a strong meet. I also think you need to use Wegotoldyougotsold, who made a splash for Mike Maker at Keeneland, winning two 3-year-old claiming events in wire-to-wire fashion. Those speed figures make him one of the major players, but I want to see him translate that form to New York as he switches into Bruce Levine’s barn. Both halves of the Robertino Diodoro entry have some appeal, but I would especially want to include Strong Side, who didn't have the easiest trip last time and finished up decently. I’m using all of these horses in some capacity, but the one that I find to be most enticing is longshot Monteleone. At first glance, he appears to be too slow to make an impact on this race. However, he was running competitive races at this same class level when he was in top form during the spring, and had even defeated Wegotoldyougotsold back in January when both had just turned 3 years old. Things went awry for this gelding over the summer as he failed to get out of the gate alertly. He was claimed in July by Linda Rice, who has fantastic numbers off layoffs of this type. Over the past five years, she is 20 for 74 (27 percent, $2.82 ROI) off breaks of 90 to 180 days in dirt sprints at NYRA. Linda Rice is not the kind of trainer that would be afraid to drop this horse in for a tag if he wasn’t training satisfactorily off the layoff, so I see it as a very good sign that she’s bringing him back in a protected spot.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4,6
RACE 3: TIP AT TAPIT (#12)
I hope that this race can stay on the turf because it drew a fascinating field of 2-year-old fillies. There are several first time starters with intriguing pedigrees, and the one that figures to attract the most attention is Ava Malone, a Stonestreet homebred daughter of Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Dayatthespa who debuts for Chad Brown. Tenacious Jewel, who goes out for Arnaud Delacour, another interesting firster. She is out of the Grade 3 turf winner Bizzy Caroline, a half-sister to champion Lady Eli. While these fillies deserve consideration, I want to focus on those with experience. Take Ten and Blue Jean Kitten have run the best turf races, but they’re going to take money in this spot and I’m not convinced that either one is necessarily superior to their rivals. I’m more interested in those with less obvious merits. I would definitely want to use Style and Grace, who makes her turf debut for Anthony Dutrow. This barn has had a disappointing year, but this filly is supposed to love the switch to grass. She is a half-sister to Breeders’ Cup winner Furthest Land, who is one of 5 siblings that have won on turf. I’m also interested in both of Jimmy Toner’s entrants in this race. The one that many people will gravitate towards is Sweet Timing, since she had significant trouble in her debut and now gets a rider switch to Jose Ortiz. While she was blocked in the lane, it’s unclear how much run she really had, and she’s definitely going to have to improve on that effort to beat this field. I’m using her, but I actually prefer Toner’s other horse, Tip At Tapit, who figures to be a better price. This filly found herself in arguably the toughest turf maiden event of the entire Saratoga meeting when she finished far behind Newspaperofrecord on debut. Despite the fact that she took some money that day, Tip At Tapit never looked like she had her mind on running, as she raced greenly and was unfocused throughout. She’s bred to have real ability as a full-sister to Grade 1 winner Time and Motion, and I think the addition of blinkers could really help. She’s worked well with the new equipment in the morning and I think she could take a big step forward second time out.
Win/Place: 12
Exacta Box: 3,6,12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 4,9,10
RACE 7: AIKENETTA (#5)
Face It is going to be the favorite here after trouncing a field of maidens by 10 lengths last time out in her first route attempt. The added ground clearly helped her, and she appears to be figuring the game out, as she showed vastly improved early speed in that win last time. On the other hand, she beat an absolute pitiful field. The margin of victory was totally a product of the competition, since the runner-up returned to run horribly as an odds-on favorite in a slow race on Thursday. Face It probably needs to improve her speed figures to win this race, and I never like picking favorites in that situation. The problem with this field is that all of the alternatives have flaws. Out of Trouble and Best Performance are both better on turf, and the latter may want less ground. Harkness has some competitive speed figures in her past performances, but I’m not convinced that she wants to go this far and she usually settles for minor awards. Therefore, I’m left with Aikenetta as my top selection. I realize that she appears to be a bit cheaper than some of her rivals, but I cannot deny that her two races for Rudy Rodriguez are far and away the best efforts of her career. She made a decisive move off the far turn to win going away on Sept. 14, running a figure that makes her just as fast as Face It. Then last time, she actually ran much better than it appears on the turf behind the talented Competitionofideas. That race was dominated by closers and Aikenetta did well to hold on for second after carving out a legitimate pace. The low-percentage rider should ensure a generous price on this improving filly.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4
Trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with 1,2,3
RACE 8: FINAL FRONTIER (#5)
In handicapping this race, you first have to decide what you want to do with the runners exiting the second race on Nov. 2. Dirty was a heavy favorite that day and he badly disappointed, crossing the wire last of the 7 runners. Some may criticize the ride, but I thought Gutierrez got him into position at the quarter pole and he just had nothing in the lane. His races from earlier in the summer would obviously make him very tough, but I don’t trust him to get back to that form. I prefer Pagliacci, who finished ahead of him last time with legitimate trouble. This horse was steadied while in tight quarters rounding the far turn and did well to get up for third in the stretch. Pagliacci has been in solid form ever since Bill Mott turned him back to sprinting, and he’s overdue for a win in one of these races. I’m using him prominently, but I don’t think you’re going to get much value on him. There are many New York-breds who are attempting to step up into open company given how few turf opportunities are left in the season, but I think they’re all in a bit tough. Instead, I want to take a shot with Final Frontier, who turns back in distance. This colt was actually successful going 7 furlongs on dirt in his second start, so he may possess the speed to win going shorter on the turf. He ran very well to cross the line in front before justifiably getting disqualified in his turf debut, and then he couldn’t quite last the 1 1/16 miles over yielding ground at Belmont. This Godolphin homebred is a very close relative to Better Lucky – also a daughter of Ghostzapper –on his dam’s side, and she was best at distances ranging from sprints to a mile. I’m generally against turf turnbacks, but this feels like one that could work out, and it’s not as if this colt needs the lead to win.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,10
RACE 9: FORMAL START (#3)
La Cat Warrior is the horse to beat off his runner-up effort at the $40,000 level in September, but I could never trust this gelding at a short price. Since returning from a layoff this year, he’s been a vet scratch on four occasions – twice as many times as he’s actually raced. This drop to the bottom level is not a good sign, given his superior form. All Clear is also difficult to endorse off the claim by low-percentage connections, especially since he’s exiting the barn of Danny Gargan. In some ways, the runner that I trust the most is Formal Start. At least he consistently runs fast enough to win races at this level, and he’s done so against superior competition. In fact, the only time that he was dropped in for a tag during the past year, he ran the best race of his life to just lose by a neck at Saratoga. That was undoubtedly a tougher spot than this one, and I applaud his connections for finally placing him at a realistic level. The only concern is that his running style will not make things easy for Manny Franco, since he may have to pass them all. That said, there are far more reasons to take an optimistic view of this horse than not. Runners for low-profile barns such as this often get overlooked when they finally drop in class. In my opinion, this horse should be a clear favorite, and that's unlikely to happen. That's the definition of value.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,10,11
by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 4 - 5
Race 2: 2 - 9 - 8 - 3
Race 3: 5 - 7 - 6
Race 4: 13 - 14 - 6 - 10
Race 5: 4 - 3 - 7 - 2
Race 6: 6 - 8 - 7 - 2
Race 7: 7 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 8: 2 - 8 - 1 - 5
Race 9: 4 - 3 - 7 - 6
RACE 4: DUBROVSKY (#13)
I actually don't mind that this race has come off the turf, because I think there's an interesting contender who was originally entered for grass that may get somewhat ignored in the wagering. Dobrovsky comes in from Parx with a mediocre set of speed figures for a low-profile barn that rarely ships to NYRA. At first glance, he might look less appealing than some of the local horses, but I think he's actually run better than it might appear in a number of his races. It's worth noting that he is coming out of significantly tougher maiden events on the dirt than almost all of his rivals. Maximus Mischief, who won his debut in September, may go off as the favorite in the Remsen, so losing to him by a wide margin is no disgrace. Direct Order, who won his second start, is favored to win an allowance race earlier on this card, and Gates of Dawn, who participated in each of his last two races also has some real quality to him. I thought Dubrovsky put in an improved effort with the addition of blinkers last time, as he rallied from far back to get up for third with a sustained run in a fast race. I see no reason why he shouldn't continue improving with the stretch-out in distance, and he figures to be a square price. I also wonder if his connections entered him in this spot with the idea that it might come off the turf in mind. The fact of the matter is that his dirt competition just isn't particularly formidable. Twelfthofneverland has run faster on one occasion, but I'm not sure that he's more talented than my top pick, and the others were meant for turf.
Win: 13
Exacta Key Box: 13 with 1,6,10,14
RACE 5: DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING (#4)
The one to beat may be Mr. Dougie Fresh, who has consistently faced tougher company in his dirt races. He was simply overmatched in N1X allowance races over the summer, but his last win in March against a similar class level may be good enough to beat this bunch if he were to repeat it. He’s run some of his best races at Aqueduct, and the one-turn one-mile distance of this race is ideal for him. I’m not against him, but I think there are others to consider at a better prices. There is not much early speed in this field, and I think that could make my top pick Doyouknowsomething dangerous. Some may be deterred by his most recent loss, which came at this level in October, but I can make some significant excuses for that performance. He’s never been a horse that has relished a sealed track, though he has handled it on a few occasions. Furthermore, he basically lost all chance at the start when he broke inwardly and couldn’t make the early lead. This time the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be out in a front in a situation favoring the early leader. He had previously run a competitive race for these new connections back in September, and he would be very difficult to catch if he were to get back to that performance. In my opinion, he’s the class of this field. Among those at bigger prices, I want to include Carissimo, who is somewhat intriguing as he switches to dirt given his strong pedigree for this surface. New trainer Ray Handal has strong numbers with this move. I also don’t think Roman Approval is impossible. He wants to go farther than the 6 furlongs he traveled last time, and he may sit a good stalking trip.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,5,7
RACE 8: TIZNOW’S SMILE (#2)
Kathryn the Wise is probably the horse to beat and the likely favorite, but I find her difficult to trust. She was expected to run well off the layoff last time when bet down to 1-2 favoritism and she looked like a shadow of her former self. She has reportedly trained well, so perhaps she gets back into form this time, but she’ll do it without my support. I also respect the form of Nisha, who is the half of the entry that will participate for Jeremiah Engleheart and owner James Riccio. She loves to win races, but I think she has benefitted from favorable circumstances on a number of occasions, and I don’t want to bet this filly at a similarly short price. I think this is the kind of race where you want to look outside the box. Both of Charlton Baker’s horses are pretty interesting to me. Playinwiththeboys is more of a wild card given the layoff, but she certainly possesses the talent to compete with most of the runners in this race if she returns in top form. She ran very well against a tough group in the Critical Eye back in the spring, and I think it’s interesting that she’s entered one level above the lowest allowance condition for which she’s eligible (N1X) in this return. I’m definitely using her, but my top pick is Tiznow’s Smile. The biggest concern for this filly is the pace, since the Pace Projector is predicting she won’t get a favorable setup. That said, she has a strong closing kick when she gets the right trip, as she did three back when she won at 7 furlongs in fast time. She did ride a strong rail bias that day, but I thought she still ran well enough to win this race. She’s lost two races since then, but I think her recent form is somewhat better than it might seem. She got buried inside when she was trying to make a run two back in the Empire Distaff, and I thought she put forth a decent effort last time. While she was only third in a small field, but the two fillies that defeated her are both very talented. I had been of the opinion that Tiznow’s Smile had wanted to go longer, but it’s possible that this turnback may actually benefit her.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,6,8
Trifecta: 2,8 with 2,8 with 1,4,5,6
RACE 9: VICAR’S LEGEND (#4)
This race is particularly tricky, because none of the favorites really excite me. I’ve tried Regalian a couple of times in his recent starts, but I’m starting to tire of his uncompetitive performances. I’ll use him again because he is getting significant class relief in this race, but I have little confidence that he can rebound to his summer form. Candymankando won against a slightly weaker field last time when he benefited form a perfect ride from Irad Ortiz. Joey Martinez is an improving apprentice rider, but I’m skeptical that he can orchestrate a repeat of Irad’s feat. Nolinski may step up off the claim by Gary Gullo, but he’s going to have to do so because I haven’t been thrilled with either of his races since returning from the layoff. I suppose Felix in Fabula is the horse to beat after winning at this level last time. The pace of that race was quite slow for the distance (indicated by blue color-coded pace figures in TimeformUS PPs) and this colt did well to rally for the victory. However, now he’s going to be bet down to a short price off that win, and I’m not convinced that he actually ran much better than that race’s fourth place finisher Vicar’s Legend. This Oscar Barrera-trained longshot is not quite as trustworthy as Felix in Fabula, but he has a right to be competitive with this group based on his last race. He closed more ground than the eventual winner through the lane and was galloping strongly across the wire. I think he stands to improve going 7 furlongs more than many of his rivals, and he actually has efforts from earlier in the spring that give him a big chance. If he’s rounding back into top form now, I think he can get a big piece of this at a substantial price.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,6,7
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Pick 6 carryover of $22,799 at the Big A on Thursday
NYRA announces Aqueduct Racetrack 2019 race dates
Corrected running times announced for Cigar Mile Day card
