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Race 1
Approx. Post Time: 11 50 AM (Dec 2)
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by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 7 - 9 - 5 - 1
Race 2: 1 - 7 - 6 - 5
Race 3: 3 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 4: 5 - 8 - 3 - 1
Race 5: 7 - 6 - 8 - 4
Race 6: 2 - 3 - 5 - 8
Race 7: 4 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 8: 2 - 5 - 7 - 6
Race 9: 5 - 2 - 3 - 7
Race 10: 3 - 7 - 12 - 2
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3
Winit (#2) is clearly the horse to beat as he makes his second start off the layoff. He returned as a new gelding last time, and the change really seemed to have the desired effect, as he was more professional during the race. He broke better and traveled well throughout, but just couldn’t hold off the late rally for Castle Chaos. He should be fitter this time as Kimmel now elects to take the blinkers off, probably feeling that they’re no longer needed. He just has to relax enough to avoid getting pulled into another competitive pace scenario. No Burn (#1) is likely to show speed to his inside as he looks to get back on track off the layoff. He has plenty of races in his past that would make him highly competitive at this level, but he’s struggled with consistency over the past year. The good news is that he’s returning during a period when Oscar Barrera is in the midst of a hot streak, and I would be inclined to include him if he’s a fair price. My top pick is Trafalgar (#3). He makes his first start off the claim following a brief layoff for Linda Rice, who has excellent stats with this specific move. Over the past year, she is 17 for 39 (44%, $2.75 ROI) first off the claim with a layoff of 45 to 90 days on dirt. I liked this gelding’s last race at Churchill, where he made a relentless rally through traffic to win with a strong 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He showed talent as a younger horse, but ran into unfavorable circumstances through the middle of the season, getting the wrong trips on a few occasions then not caring for turf. He’s back in the right spot now, and might have upside for this new barn.
Fair Value:
#3 TRAFALGAR, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 4
There isn’t much dirt form to latch onto in this state-bred maiden claimer, so I’m happy to endorse a lightly raced second time starter. Seba M (#5) just appears to have found the right field as he stretches out for his second start. Jose Jimenez is 0 for 31 with first time starters, so this gelding had a right to need his debut sprinting. He actually showed some ability that day. He broke with the field, but was slow into stride and dropped far behind in the early stages. He raced greenly past the half-mile pole, appearing to drift out before commending a rally. He started to advance while wide on the turn and was finishing best of all through the stretch before galloping out with good interest. Furthermore, he was against a rail bias that seemed to carry along the first and third-place finishers. Based on the visual of his debut, I don’t mind the stretch-out to a mile, and he wouldn’t have to improve much to beat this field.
Fair Value:
#5 SEBA M, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 5
Some speed is expected to scratch out of this race, since Kingdom ran on Friday. However, there still is ample pace in here with Screw Loose, Mandatory, Vodka Mardini and others all looking to show early speed. A fast pace would be just fine for favorite Brooklyn Diamonds (#6), who makes another attempt at this starter allowance condition after falling a nose short in October. He’s been in great form since the claim by Linda Rice, and just seems to fit this race well. The only drawback is that his form is now exposed, so you’re not going to get much of a price on this logical contender. American Law (#8) has been knocking on the door at this level and was flattered when the horse who defeated him last time, Colonel Vargo, returned to win against a tougher field in his next start. However, this 5-year-old is tough to endorse as a win candidate given his 9 second-place finishes to go along with this one career victory. If the pace completely falls apart, Stjames (#4) would benefit, but he’s another that’s a little tough to trust to get the job done. He’s just 1 for 17 in his career, and really should have won last time when he got a great setup at this level. I think this is a tougher field. My top pick is Cloud Forest (#7), who seems to be coming around since the claim by Ray Handal. It took this guy a while to break his maiden, but he didn’t run as badly as it might look in his first start for the new barn back in September. He got outrun in the early stages and couldn’t make up much ground while attempting to close into a slow pace. He showed more of his typical tactical speed last time and got the job done against maiden special weight foes. He now takes advantage of his starter eligibility, and should work out a good trip sitting in behind the speed. Ray Handal is 7 for 38 (18%, $2.77 ROI) with last-out maiden winners on dirt over 5 years.
Fair Value:
#7 CLOUD FOREST, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 6
It’s pretty obvious that Overstep (#3) will be tough for this field to beat if he returns with an effort as good as his last race prior to the layoff. He earned a career-best 116 TiemformUS Speed Figure beating a strong field of New York-breds, and isn’t really encountering a tougher field despite moving into open company. Yet this lightly raced 4-year-old has had trouble staying on the racetrack. He was off for 15 months prior to returning earlier this year, and now he’s been away for over 9 months since his last race. Todd Pletcher is known for excelling with these types, and while he does have a solid 25% win rate with horses returning from 180 to 360 day layoffs in dirt sprints, the ROI is just $1.44. The biggest asset for the favorite might be his early speed, since the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario favoring frontrunners. The horse shown pressing him on the Pace Projector is Dark Vector (#8), one of two Linda Rice trainees in here. This horse showed ability earlier in the season, but he’s never really developed since then, and had little excuse to lose a weaker race last time after working out a good trip. I much prefer the other Linda Rice runner Power Seeker (#2), who exits the same Oct. 26 race at Keeneland. Both of these horses are claims, and Linda Rice has done exceptionally well with this move. Over the past year, she is 28 for 63 (44%, $2.94 ROI) with horses first off the claim on dirt, who are also racing at a different track than their prior start. That partially captures how well she has done with her claims from Kentucky, and this runner was picked up at the recent Keeneland meet. Power Seeker arguably should have won that last race, since he was reined in after trying to show speed, and was closing best of all into a slow pace, with all blue color-coded fractions in TimeformUS. I think he can do better second off the layoff, and I like the confident placement by Rice.
Fair Value:
#2 POWER SEEKER, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 7
Life Talk (#3) is obviously the class of this field, dropping out of a pair of Grade 1 events, including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. She was hardly disgraced in those two stakes attempts despite settling for minor awards, and I thought she actually ran pretty well in the Breeders' Cup. She drew a wide post, and was always traveling in the 3 to 4-path, yet still stayed on for fourth behind likely champion Just F Y I. The stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles isn’t supposed to be a problem. The only drawback is that she’s never run a particularly fast speed figure, and she’s going to be a short price due to those company lines. There are a few closers drawn to the outside who merit consideration, but I’m a little concerned about the pace of this race. It seems likely that Caress will scratch, since she’s entered back on Sunday. That could create a situation that favors front-running types. Dolomite (#2) should sit a good trip from her inside post position, having shown tactical speed in sprints. Her debut is a lot better than it looks, since she was steadied on the backstretch and made a strong rally to finish second. The winner has since gone on to win a stakes. Dolomite won next time out by over 6 lengths with a modest speed figure. Yet that’s been a very productive race, from which multiple horses have returned to achieve improved speed figures. She might be better than she looks, and she has some pedigree to handle the stretch-out. My top pick is another recent maiden winner. Most of All (#4) has much to prove at this level, but she appears to be headed in the right direction after a slow start to her career. She just couldn’t keep up sprinting against a tough field on dirt first time out, and then failed to handle turf. Yet she started to put things together last time, easily breaking her maiden in an off the turf event. That 95 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes her competitive here, and she still has upside going longer, being bred to handle added ground. Her connections figure to make use of her early speed as she stretches out, and Bill Mott has good stats in this situation. He is 17 for 63 (27%, $2.34 ROI) with last-out maiden winners in dirt routes over 5 years.
Fair Value:
#4 MOST OF ALL, at 9-1 or greater
#2 DOLOMITE, at 7-1 or greater
RACE 9
I’m not really against the likely favorites in this Remsen, but I view it as a competitive affair where I didn’t really want to settle for short prices. Dornoch (#3) has to be considered the horse to beat off his impressive maiden victory at Keeneland, which earned a strong 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He’s proven around two turns, and he drew well towards the inside. He just has to avoid getting caught up in a fast pace, since there are multiple runners who want to attain forward early position. Some pace up front would suit the other horse likely to take money, Sierra Leone (#7). This expensive yearling purchase hinted at serious potential on debut, rating well in behind horses before producing a strong kick once angled out in the stretch. He covers a lot of ground and looks like one that should relish this 9-furlong distance. He just has to get faster in a race where most others have already earned significantly higher speed figures. I’m most interested in two alternatives. The other Chad Brown runner Domestic Product (#2) has already handled this distance, winning his second start with a powerful finish going 1 1/8 miles. He got a great trip that day, sitting on top of a moderate pace before sprinting home. Yet the effort earned a solid 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and he drew another good post position for this race. He had needed some education on debut and seems to be much more focused with the addition of blinkers. My top pick is another recent maiden winner. Drum Roll Please (#5) took a few races to break through, but he showed ability in his first two starts at Saratoga. He was never in a great spot in his debut sprinting in the slop, but really progressed to be second next time out behind impressive winner Locked. That rival has since proven to be one of the best 2-year-olds in the country, and Drum Roll Please chased him home gamely while 13 lengths clear of the rest. He regressed a bit from a speed figure standpoint to break his maiden last time, but I liked the way he battled back after getting headed in mid-stretch. He strikes me as one that should relish the added ground, and he figures to be a square price for a dangerous barn.
Fair Value:
#5 DRUM ROLL PLEASE, at 6-1 or greater
#2 DOMESTIC PRODUCT, at 9-1 or greater
RACE 10
I’m usually not inclined to pick the favorite in a competitive race, but I don’t think anyone can be that short a price in this wide open Cigar Mile. Senor Buscador (#3) just appears to fit this race perfectly. There is so much speed signed on, and he figures to get the setup he needs to produce his best effort. I do think he’s slightly better going shorter distances than the classic trips he’s been trying for much of this year, but I also am encouraged by the turnback to a one-turn event, where it’s easier to make that sustained rally from off the pace. He won his most recent one-turn race in the Ack Ack last year, and a repeat of that effort makes him highly competitive with this group, if not the horse to beat. Furthermore, I actually think he’s improved this year despite not catching ideal circumstances. He ran particularly well two back in the Awesome Again, closing well over a track that was playing to speed. I primarily want to use him with another closer, Three Technique (#7). This horse didn’t have much of a chance in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, and he was also compromised two back when attempting to rally into a slow pace in this year’s Ack Ack. He usually runs well in these elongated one-turn events, and he was successful when shipped to the NYRA circuit over the summer. I’m not a big fan of the horses coming out of the Forty Niner. I question the quality of that race a bit, but I do respect Everso Mischievous (#2), who could vie for favoritism. He has to work out a trip in a race that features plenty of pace, but he usually shows up with a competitive performance and possesses the grit that’s required for this kind of race. I just don’t need to upgrade him at a short price. The longshot that I want to throw in somewhere is Pipeline (#12). His recent form leaves a lot to be desired, but we’ve seen Cherie DeVaux excel with trainer switches like this. He’s capable of competing with this group on his best day, and the one-turn mile distance is perfect for him. Perhaps he can work out a free-running trip from this outside post and stick around for a piece at a price.
Fair Value:
#3 SENOR BUSCADOR, at 3-1 or greater
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 2: 1 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 3: 4 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 4: 2 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 5: 1 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 6: 8 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 7: 4 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 8: 5 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 9: 4 - 10 - 1 - 8
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
I’m not thrilled with taking short prices on horses like Duke of Gloucester (#4), who does make some sense off his improved recent form. He was facing a tougher field last time and wasn’t disgraced, staying in contention until mid-stretch before fading. He broke his maiden going this distance in the prior start, so he appears to appreciate the longer trip. He’s just a little tough to endorse as a win candidate given his 1 for 17 career record, and he’s going to take money just because Irad Ortiz is getting aboard, even though Trevor McCarthy has ridden him well. Among the shorter prices, I much prefer Face Abarrio (#1), who will stretch out in distance for the first time in a dirt race. He has gone longer on turf before, and actually ran quite well in his first route attempt going 9 furlongs on grass back in July. He subsequently turned out to not actually be better on turf, and he ran well with the switch back to dirt two back. He faded when he came to the NYRA circuit last time, but he was dueling through some pretty swift fractions in a race that was falling apart in the late stages. Now he’s been claimed by Linda Rice, who immediately stretches him out. this is one of her best moves, as she is 25 for 56 (45%, $2.56 ROI) going from sprints to routes on dirt first off the claim over 5 years, and she’s 12 for 21 (57%, $3.33 ROI) with the move in the past 12 months. There’s other speed in here, but he looks quickest from the inside. I primarily want to use him with Deputy Connect (#6), who is confidently moved up in class off the claim for Rob Atras. This barn hasn’t been as potent lately, but the horse has plenty of back class, and just didn’t look comfortable in the two starts for the Gary Contessa barn. He can carry his head a bit high and react badly to kickback, so it’s good to see him drawn outside. I’d also throw in Masterwork (#3) if he’s a generous price. He didn’t beat much when he broke his maiden at Laurel back in March, but his last race felt like a prep and he can contend here if he moves forward at all.
Fair Value:
#1 FACE ABARRIO, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 6
Signal Corps (#6) figures to attract support as he returns from a lengthy layoff for Todd Pletcher. This horse took significant money on debut, and delivered on that hype, winning by over 3 lengths as the 6-5 favorite. He had to be hard-ridden to hit top gear that day, but he was drawing off nicely in the end. There are obviously some questions about the time away. Todd Pletcher has decent statistics with this move, but his horses are often overbet in these situations. I won’t be surprised when he runs well here, but he does need to improve on his prior speed figure to beat this group. The most intriguing change in this race is the rider switch on Dr. Kraft (#3), who gets a huge upgrade with Irad Ortiz getting aboard. He’s run well enough to win at this level on a few occasions, but his recent form leaves a lot to be desired. I don’t mind him turning back in distance, especially since there appears to be a fair amount of speed in this race. He just has to be ready off the layoff, and I wouldn’t want to take too short a price if he gets overbet on the rider switch. My top pick is Prince of Truth (#8). He looks a little light on form and figures as he steps up against winners for the first time, but at least he seems to be heading in the right direction in a race where many other contenders have questions to answer about their current form. He obviously needed his debut, like so many Linda Rice runners. He then didn’t take to turn when they experimented in his second start. One could argue that last time was his first serious race, and he delivered, beating some decent rivals. You got 8-1 on him that day, but he figures to be a square price once again. He’s drawn well towards the outside, and Linda Rice does pretty well with horses coming off maiden wins.
Fair Value:
#8 PRINCE OF TRUTH, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 7
I’m not trying to beat Amani’s Eagle (#4) as he stretches out in this $14k conditioned claimer. This is just the right level for a horse has some back class but went off form this summer. It took him a start to get things back on track after getting claimed by Tom Morley, but his last couple of efforts have been a step in the right direction. He fought on gamely two back going 6 furlongs, which is probably on the short side for him, earning a solid 95 TimeformUS Speed Figure. His figure regressed a bit last time, but that was a pretty tough spot for this level, certainly a stronger race than he encounters here. The sprints at this level generally come up stronger than the routes, and the TimeformUS Race Ratings illustrate that. His last two races were rated 101 and 103, whereas this spot gets a preliminary Race Rating of 97. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, but I’m not that concerned about it since Amani’s Eagle has shown the ability to rate. A quick pace would aid his main rival Union Lights (#5), but this horse just seems content to settle for minor awards. He’s finished second in each of his last two starts at this level, albeit behind superior rivals to those he meets today. I expect him to run well, but he’s just not the most reliable win candidate. If the pace really comes apart, it could work in the favor of Delaware shipper Grandpa’s Kid (#3). He has been facing weaker company out of town, but he’s only a 3-year-old who appears to be coming into better form. He’s had limited opportunities on dirt during his career, but has generally run well on this surface. He picks up a live rider in Kendrick Carmouche and should be running on late.
Fair Value:
#4 AMANI'S EAGLE, at 2-1 or greater
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 2: 6 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 3: 1 - 7 - 3 - 2
Race 4: 2B - 4 - 2 - 3/3X - 1A
Race 5: 2 - 8 - 1 - 7
Race 6: 4 - 7 - 3 - 2
Race 7: 6 - 9 - 2 - 1
Race 8: 9 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 9: 7 - 4 - 2 - 9
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
I don’t want to take a short price on Suspended Campaign (#3), who is so pace dependent and lands in a race where the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario favoring frontrunners. She just drops so far back in the early stages of her races. Some handicappers focused on winning angles will note that she is reunited with Irad Ortiz, who was aboard for her last two victories. Yet she got a very favorable setup the last the rode her, and she was also running back just 9 days after being claimed. I’m worried that she regressed so much last time after spending more time in her current barn. Sister Linda (#2) seems like a viable candidate to turn the tables after getting beaten in that Oct. 15 affair. She ran the better race that day, making an early move to attack a swift pace before tiring. Now she’s second off a layoff, and should be fitter. She also might play out as the controlling speed. Run Devil (#5) also lands in a better spot, where she should be able to park herself in a stalking position just outside of Sister Linda. This Rudy Rodriguez mare has been in some tough spots since the claim and now appears to be placed appropriately. My top pick is Parx shipper Distorted View (#6). At first glance it might not be apparent that she’s getting significant class relief. This race gets a preliminary TimeformUS Race Rating of 89, and she’s exiting races that were rated 108 and 94 in each of her last two starts. That Oct. 30 affair was particularly tough, since Majestic Creed has been in raging form at that Pennsylvania venue. I won’t hold those disappointing results against Distorted View. She was game to win going this distance three back, and I don’t mind the class relief as she ships to New York. Louis Linder and Trevor McCarthy nearly pulled off an upset with Daydreaming Boy at 9-1 in the Sunday feature, and they appear to have another live runner here.
Fair Value:
#6 DISTORTED VIEW, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 3
I’ll be interested to see how the public approaches this wide open state-bred $25k claimer. The race lacks an obvious favorite, but I would imagine that some handicappers will be enticed by the early speed of Tommy Gun (#3). This gelding has been in strong form, finishing in the exacta in each of his last 4 starts. He’s moving up in class after winning his $14k beaten claimer condition last time, but that was an unusually strong field for the level and he won decisively. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he will be leading in a situation favoring the frontrunner. The one knock is that he’s first off the claim for Lolita Shivmangal, exiting the barn of Mike Maker. Yet she tends to do fine with her limited opportunities, and she’s wisely running the horse back on short rest. The main pace rival for Tommy Gun figures to be Quickflash (#7), who also changes barns. Mark Hennig is 4 for 13 (31%, $3.82 ROI) first off a claim for Windylea Farm. He also moves this runner up in class despite coming off a fading fourth-place finish. Quickflash is a little harder to endorse on the win end, given his 11 runner-up finishes to go along with his 3 victories in 39 career starts. Yet he had been in good form coming into the fall, and he projects to get the right kind of trip in this spot. I wanted to avoid some others who could take money, such as Six Percent (#2), who has a lot to prove as he cuts all the way back to 6 furlongs after concentrating on routes for much of his career. I’m also skeptical of Always Charming (#4), who suddenly found vastly improved form this spring, but has tailed off since then. It appeared that his early speed had completely left him last time, and I don’t trust him to wake up even with this class drop. I wanted to go in a different direction for my top pick. Bustin Shout (#1) might appear as if he’s also off form, but his last couple of efforts aren’t nearly as bad as they seem. He didn’t get the right ride or trip two back, when he broke sharply and was then reined in by the apprentice, getting shuffled back and losing position down the backstretch. Then last time he tired a mile and was rated again. He actually tried to make a move in upper stretch, but just can’t get that distance. I like him turning back, and he’s getting appropriate class relief as he makes his third start since the Rudy Rodriguez claim. I’m hoping to see Luis Rivera deliver a more aggressive ride here, at least getting forward position even if he doesn’t make the lead.
Fair Value:
#1 BUSTIN SHOUT, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 5
I don’t want a short price on likely favorite Vintage (#1). She looks formidable at first glance, coming off a 5-length win at Saratoga before beating allowance company last time. Yet she was defeating pretty weak fields on both occasions. TimeformUS Race Ratings indicate that she isn’t really getting any class relief despite moving back down to the $14k level. It also bothers me that she’s been a vet scratch 3 times since that last victory, once each at Aqueduct, Keeneland, and Finger Lakes. I prefer the horses who have been competing at this level. Just a Nyquist (#8) finished a decent second to the superior Angela’s Party Girl when she tried a similar spot in early November. She’s steadily been rounding back into form for Oscar Barrera and makes some sense here despite having already had multiple chances at the level. I prefer Accel Rose (#2) from that race. A close viewing of that replay reveals that Manny Franco briefly pulled her up just before the quarter pole, freezing for a few strides before continuing to ride. The filly lost some momentum and might have been cost second by it, but she then continued on to finish off the race without issue. I suspect she can do better if able to run a more complete race this time. I also think her tactical speed should allow her get first run on the likely favorite, and she has a bit more upside than both of the aforementioned rivals.
Fair Value:
#2 ACCEL ROSE, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 8
Leading Contender (#1) looks like a deserving favorite, living up to his name, but this is a fairly competitive allowance affair and he’s going to be a short price for popular connections. He’s run well in both prior attempts at this level. He gamely chased home the classy Film Star two back at Saratoga in a race that has proven to be strong for the level. Then last time he lost narrowly as the favorite without an obvious excuse, but that’s another race that was flattered by runbacks, with the third-place finisher returning to win in a fast race. He shouldn't have any problems with the added distance, and he drew well. I’m intrigued by some horses who tried this distance in the Oct. 6 race at this level. Suerte (#9) and Mistical Curlin (#3) faced off on the front end that day, with the former leading through some honest splits before fading a bit in the last furlong. Suerte was able to turn the tables on that rival when they met again on Nov. 5, benefiting from a more patient ride. I like the trajectory for Suerte coming into this race, and his post position is no longer such a disadvantage after three scratches. I could bet him if he's dismissed at a fair price, but this race does lose some appeal after scratches.
Fair Value:
#9 SUERTE, at 3-1 or greater
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 2 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 2: 5 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 3: 1 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 4: 6 - 4 - 2
Race 5: 8 - 6 - 2 - 7
Race 6: 5 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 7: 7 - 1A - 3 - 4
Race 8: 8 - 7 - 5 - 2
Race 9: 1 - 7 - 4 - 8
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3
Lookin At Roses (#2) figures to be heavily supported in this spot as he bids for his sixth victory of the season. He’s been very consistent, especially from a speed figure perspective. However, he’s primarily done his best running out of town at Parx and Delaware. He did take his show on the road to earn a victory over this course and distance in September, but he was beating a weaker field that day. I think this is a tougher test for him and didn’t want to settle for a short price. If Portos (#3) is able to repeat his last race, he’s going to be a handful for this field. He didn’t finish that far behind the improving 3-year-old Signator or classy older rivals like Costa Terr and Little Demon. He obviously relishes this distance, and appears to be rounding back into form for Wayne Potts. Sundaeswithsandy (#4) is coming off a couple of disappointing results, but he didn’t get the right trip last time. He is a horse who sometimes breaks a step slowly, and Luis Rivera was unable to get him forward after that. The horse raced keenly in traffic early, but never gave up despite having to adapt to a new running style. I think he can get this distance if he’s able to make the lead, but that’s no guarantee here. My top pick is Higher Quality (#1). This horse has been a bit of an overachiever for the connections. Claimed for just $10k, he won a starter allowance race at Pimlico in September, and nearly took down to a $25k claimer with a very game effort two back. He looks a little cheaper than these on the basis of those efforts, but I thought he put in a strong effort when moved up in class last time. That race was dominated by a pair of tougher rivals, but he was closing stoutly though the late stages to get up for third despite going a distance that is short for him. I like him stretching back out to 1 1/8 miles, and he’s usually a fair price.
Fair Value:
#1 HIGHER QUALITY, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 6
If you have confidence that Kitten’s Appeal (#4) will return to her dirt sprint form from earlier this season prior to the layoff, she is very much the horse to beat in this spot. She barely lost to Hot Fudge back in January, and that filly went on to do some nice things in the first half of this season. She was then chasing an honest pace in February in a race won by a deep closer. I won’t hold the turf effort against her where she also got off to a poor start. Bruce Levine is 5 for 24 (21%, $1.25 ROI) off 150 to 300 day layoffs on dirt over 5 years, primarily doing well with short prices. I respect her form, but I didn’t want to take a short price considering the time away. Virtual Reality (#1) could take money as she returns to dirt for Chad Brown. Yet I’m just not convinced that she’s quite good enough to compete at this level. She didn’t beat the strongest field when she broke her maiden in her only dirt sprint attempt earlier this year, and she took a while to get going that day. She subsequently settled for second in a couple of weak races at this level up at Saratoga perform improving a bit on turf last time. She doesn’t strike me as a horse who would appreciate going shorter on dirt, and I’m also concerned she’s going to get outrun in the early stages. A new face to consider is Desert Dalliance (#6), who makes her first start off a trainer switch to Rudy Rodriguez. The barn doesn’t have the best stats with this move, but she has run some competitive speed figures on occasion. She won going 9 furlongs over this surface last sprint, but showed herself to be proficient sprinting this distance two back at Parx. Her inconsistency is a concern, but she’s capable on her best day. My top pick is Mongolian Panther (#5). She is obviously coming off a disappointing effort, where she finished behind two of today’s rivals on Nov. 5. Yet she didn’t get the best trip that day, as she was keen while racing in tight quarters along the rail early. Isaac Castillo, in trying to get her to settled, wrangled her back off the pace just as the leaders started to sprint for home. She was trying to accelerate late, but the pace had been slow, and the leaders had too much left in the tank. Her form prior to that clearly makes her the horse to beat in this spot. She ran well chasing the fast pace set by Portage two back going a distance that is probably too far for her anyway. A repeat of her 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure going this distance at Saratoga in August would clearly put her in the winner’s circle against this group.
Fair Value:
#5 MONGOLIAN PANTHER, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 8
It's hard to knock the recent form of likely favorite Swiftsure (#7). He was commanding winner against claimers at Saratoga, and that gave his connections confidence to step him up to a mile. It now seems clear that he should have been focusing on longer distances all along. He won that first route attempt in early October, and subsequently showed that improvement was no fluke by finishing a competitive fifth against a tough field in the G2 Forty Niner. On all of those occasions, he made use of his early speed, and he figures to get things his own way up front again here without any other confirmed frontrunners signed on. I’m not against him, but he figures to be a short price now that his form is exposed. Among his main rivals is Unbridled Bomber (#5), who will turn back to a mile for the first time since early in the season. Both of his efforts going this distance were strong, as he won an allowance race by 9 lengths with a career-best speed figure in April before finishing a decent fourth in the Westchester. My concern is that he had to work harder than expected for that victory last time despite getting a good trip sitting on top of a slow pace. I’m a fan of this horse, but I thought others might offer better value here. I am pretty intrigued by the horse who nearly defeated Unbridled Bomber last time. Daydreaming Boy (#8) nearly pulled off that minor upset when sweeping to the lead past the quarter pole. He appeared to have the race in the bag, but got a bit leg-weary in the last sixteenth. Despite the loss, that race was just further confirmation that this horse is in great form right now. He really improved with the stretch-out in distance at Parx this summer, and has carried that form into the fall. I really like this slight turnback for him, since he clearly has the turn of foot to win going a mile. He looks like a horse who is pace dependent, but he has been more forward on occasions, and Trevor McCarthy should have some options from this outside draw.
Fair Value:
#8 DAYDREAMING BOY, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 9
Goddess of Fire (#7) will obviously win this race if she gets back to her better efforts off the layoff. She’s multiple graded stakes placed, even earning a Grade 1 placing behind stablemate Nest in the Alabama last year. However, her season did end on a sour note in the Cotillion, and we didn’t see her for over a year after that. She’s missed nearly her entire 4-year-old season, and now returns getting significant class relief in this N1X allowance affair. She’s talented on her best day, but she’s a little hard to trust coming off the layoff. Todd Pletcher is just 13 for 68 (19%, $0.93 ROI) off 300 to 600 day layoffs on dirt over 5 years, and 4 for 28 (14%, $0.54 ROI) in dirt routes within that sample. Her main rival appears to be Coppa Girl (#4), who also comes off a poor effort. Yet she doesn’t have as long a layoff to deal with, having last raced at Saratoga this summer. She ran very well on this circuit two back when just missing behind Into Happiness. Her best effort won’t beat Goddess of Fire’s top races, but she has fewer questions to answer as she attempts to bounce back for a dangerous barn. I’m more interested in a horse with more early speed. Dame Cinco (#1) looks overmatched from a class standpoint as she moves up second off the claim for Rick Dutrow. This was one of the first horses Dutrow claimed upon his return to training in April, and it took him a long time to get her back to the races. Her last race was probably just a prep, since she was only going 6 furlongs with the claiming tag waived. She should have gotten something out of that effort, and now she moves up into a more ambitious spot despite losing that return. I like her betting back out to a mile, where she has run some of the best races of her career. Manny Franco figures to make use of her speed from this inside post position, and I think she’s a serious threat to take them all the way.
Fair Value:
#1 DAME CINCO, at 5-1 or greater
by David Aragona
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Race 1: 8 - 9 - 1 - 5
Race 2: 5 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 3: 4 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 4: 8 - 2B - 1 - 4
Race 5: 5 - 3 - 8 - 4
Race 6: 7 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 7: 1 - 6 - 2 - 9
Race 8: 6 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 9: 4 - 8 - 2 - 7
Race 10: 9 - 6 - 4 - 1
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
Kid’s Last Laugh (#1) will probably beat this field if she’s able to repeat any of about 5 of her first 7 career starts. She ran very well on debut as a 2-year-old and has looked good enough to break through at the maiden special weight level on a few occasions since then. However, she’s now coming of the worst performance of her career in a race where she was supposed to be successful, and Ken McPeek immediately drops her in class. He does have great stats with this move – 29 for 115 (25%, $2.34 ROI) with MSW to MCL dropdowns on dirt over 5 years – but I’m still skeptical that she’s going to bounce back. It’s also worth noting that she’s making her third start in just 4 weeks. I believe the best alternatives to this favorite are others making the same drop. Put the Crazy Away (#9) figures to attract some support for Todd Pletcher, but I wish she had done a little more running in her prior starts against tougher competition. I much prefer Take Time to Dream (#8), who finished ahead of that Pletcher trained rival when they met going this distance on Sep. 15. She ran pretty well that day considering that she lost some momentum trying to go inside of a tiring rival in upper stretch before altering course. She then stayed on decently at Keeneland two back before finding a mile to be too far for her last time. I like her turning back in this realistic spot, and she drew a favorable outside post. Rob Falcone is 8 for 21 (38%, $2.23 ROI) with MSW to MCL dropdowns on dirt over 5 years.
Fair Value:
#8 TAKE TIME TO DREAM, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 4
David Jacobson will only go with Royal Meghan (#1) of his entry, and she is obviously a contender off her narrow nose defeat at this level first off the claim for the new barn. She's run well in similar spots before and is fairly logical. The Sanford Goldfarb-owned pair of Good Penny (#2) and Fancy Azteca (#2B) also figures to attract support. However, this entry is a problem for me, since I much prefer the latter and they’re likely to be a short price as a couple. Fancy Azteca hasn’t done much of anything in two starts since getting claimed by Rick Dutrow, but she was pulled up once and involved in a fast pace the next time. Those were probably ambitious spots anyway going a distance that’s a little far for her. I like the turnback to 7 furlongs and the class relief is realistic. I just wouldn’t want to take too short a price, especially now that Dutrow’s horses are starting to become more popular with the bettors. My top pick is I’m Buzzy (#8). While she hasn’t quite gotten back to the best efforts that she achieved for Amira Chichackly last winter, she did show some signs of life coming off the layoff in her first start for Pat Reynolds last time. Though she was beaten by Royal Meghan, all the TimeformUS Pace Figures for that race are color coded in blue, indicating a slow pace. She was actually finishing best of all at the end despite not threatening for the win. This slight stretch-out to 7 furlongs should suit her, and she lands in a race that the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting will feature a faster pace.
Fair Value:
#8 I'M BUZZY, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 7
Alibi Ike (#6) obviously didn’t have a fair chance the last time we saw him in June at Belmont, since he was completely buried in traffic on the rail for the entire stretch drive, never asked for run by Irad Ortiz. It’s unclear where he would have finished if not for that trouble, and now he’s coming into this race as a potential favorite despite the fact that he still hasn’t put forth a competitive dirt effort. I suppose it’s a good sign that he’s returning with claiming tag waived, especially after he was a voided claim prior to the layoff. However, I still wouldn’t want to take any kind of short price on this type of runner. I think there’s a logical alternative in Whenlovetakesover (#1). I know this horse has had chances, but the reality is that he’s only raced in dirt sprints on 5 occasions, and three of those were at the maiden special weight level. He didn’t even run that badly in those first few starts against tougher company before trying a variety of new distances. Now he’s gradually cutting back in distance, and I like him returning to 6 furlongs here. His last race is better than it might look at first glance, since he was loaded around the far turn and had to wait briefly while trying to find a clear path in the stretch. He ultimately shook loose late and was finishing well across the wire. There’s pace in here to set up his late run, so Luis Rivera has to avoid getting trapped inside from the rail post.
Fair Value:
#1 WHENLOVETAKESOVER, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 8
Bustin Bay (#1) obviously would have won that Oct. 27 optional claimer even without breaking through the starting gate a fraction of a second too early. Yet the rules dictated that she be disqualified for that infraction, so now she’s back racing for the same allowance condition. She clearly merits respect not only because of that performance, but due to her overall body of work. She’s crossed the wire first in 5 of her last 7 starts, finishing second in the other two races. She has to work out a trip from the rail this time whereas she’s drawn advantageous outside posts in her last two starts. Yet she’s still the horse to beat. In searching for an alternative, some may be enticed by Comparative (#4), who makes her NYRA debut for Brad Cox. Yet I wish she had shown a little more in those early season victories where she beat up on weaker competition. I’m more intrigued by some familiar faces. Into Happiness (#2) is perfectly logical as she gets some class relief dropping out of the Pumpkin Pie. I don’t love the fact that she’s returning in just 20 days, but she has plenty of prior races that would make her tough on this group. She was clearly in great form at Saratoga, and she relishes this one-mile distance. The major concern with her is her lack of early speed, since there isn’t much pace in this race. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring frontrunners with Missy Greer (#6) on the lead. This 4-year-old is dangerous as she makes her second start off the layoff for Tom Morley, who is 9 for 44 (20%, $4.03 ROI) second off a 90 to 180 day layoff over the past 5 years. The hope is that she just needed her return last time, where she carved out legitimate fractions before tiring behind Bustin Bay and some others. Unlike in a few previous starts, she didn’t completely give up until the very late stages. She figures to have gotten some fitness out of that start, and she arguably has the best prior form of anyone in this group. Now she’s drawn well towards the outside, and I’m expecting a step forward this time.
Fair Value:
#6 MISSY GREER, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 9
Raging Sea (#8) showed plenty of promise as a two-year-old, closing to victory in her debut and nearly winning the Grade 1 Alcibiades before placing in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. She figured to be among the top players in the division based on that introduction, but it took her a while to get back to the races this season. She was initially disappointing in a pair of allowance attempts at Saratoga. Yet she seemed to get back on track last time at Keeneland, making a sustained rally to duel with the runner-up before pulling away late. She’s headed in the right direction now as she moves back into stakes company, and the 9-furlong distance is obviously right up her alley. She drew a wide post, but she has the tactical speed to get into decent position, and is arguably the horse to beat. Defining Purpose (#7) is coming off a good effort over this track when second in the Mother Goose to Xigera last month. While no match for that superior rival, she stayed on well to pick up another graded stakes placing in a season where she has overachieved at the highest levels. However, she’s also gotten some favorable trips and setups when she’s been successful, and now she’s likely to be a shorter price than she has been in recent starts. Julia Shining (#2) is another who could attract support coming out of the Mother Goose. While she again failed to hit the board in that spot, it was a much better effort than her return in the Alabama. The pace was not in her favor, and she was still trying hard all the way down the lane, finishing fastest of all at the end. She obviously gets the distance, but she needs to continue her progression into this race. I’m also concerned about her lack of early speed in a race that doesn’t feature a ton of pace. My top pick is Just Katherine (#4). It took this daughter of Justify a while to fully come around, but she announced her improved form with a deceptively strong third-place finish in a tough allowance race back June. She then put a scare into future Grade 1 winner Randomized in the Wilton, the only horse to rally into a slow pace that day. She followed that up with a victory over today’s rival Raging Sea going this distance at Saratoga, earning a strong 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The connections took a shot at the Grade 1 level in the Cotillion just 19 days later, but she just didn't appear to handle the sloppy going. She’s now had some time to regroup since then, and is likely to do better in another stakes on her home circuit. She has a versatile running style, which should allow her to work out a trip in a race that features a murky pace scenario.
Fair Value:
#4 JUST KATHERINE, at 3-1 or greater
by David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 2: 7 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 3: 4 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 4: 6 - 5 - 1 - 7
Race 5: 8 - 6 - 1 - 7
Race 6: 4 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 7: 5 - 9 - 1 - 2
Race 8: 5 - 7 - 6 - 8
Race 9: 4 - 10 - 1 - 5
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3
Durante (#4) was assigned the top weight in this Grade 3 Fall Highweight handicap, but that shouldn’t deter the 4-year-old gelding, who has been in fantastic form since the summer. He’s won 5 of his last 6 starts, most of those victories coming since he was transferred into the David Jacobson barn. He was arguably a little unlucky in his lone loss during that streak two back when unable to overcome a pace duel in the slop. He then turned around just 13 days later, and got back to his winning ways in the Bold Ruler, outdueling pace rivals who were ultimately beaten by 6 and 28 lengths. While he hasn’t posted TimeformUS Speed Figures that are quite as high as a few of his rivals, his consistency and determination make him hard to deny in this spot. It also helps that he drew outside of his main pace rival. That’s the major knock against Rotnkee (#2), who would obviously be dangerous if he were able to repeat the 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned for winning the Hudson last time. He was a convincing winner that day, fending off early challenger Today’s Flavor, who faded last time, before holding off the closers. Yet he was able to get his preferred outside stalking trip in that spot, and now he figures to be under the gun from an inside post position. The wild card with regard to the pace scenario is Win for Gold (#5), who ran a career-best race in the Hudson. Expected to be challenging for the lead, he tossed his head at the start and was off about 5 lengths behind the field. Yet he adapted his running style to make a closing move into contention at mid-stretch before flattening out. It was a big step forward for a horse ascending out of softer allowance races. The question now is whether he makes use of that newfound dimension to rate behind horses, or goes back to his previous front-running style. If the pace heats up, it will suit Bold Journey (#1). He got the right setup when he won an optional claimer two back, just getting his nose in front at the wire. He seems to be back in top form after a turf experiment earlier this year. He does seem to run his best races at Aqueduct, but he has to prove that he can be as effective at the stakes level. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring Durante, and I tend to agree that he’s mostly likely to work out the right trip, given his post position and ability to race on the lead or from a stalking position. If it turns into a test of will down to the wire, I have confidence in him to fend off a trio of rivals who have all been fainthearted at times.
Fair Value:
#4 DURANTE, at 3-2 or greater
RACE 6
A pair of 3-year-old filly stakes winners returning from layoffs are intriguing contenders in this optional claimer. Stonewall Star (#2) has the strongest overall form, having won 3 stakes, including a pair of New York-bred stakes events over this track. She even held her won when stepped up against Grade 2 foes in the Beaumont when last seen in April. She had to adapt to rating tactics that day, but she’s generally been best when she can flaunt her early speed. There is other pace in this spot, but she seems quick enough to make the front if she’s ridden aggressively. However, Horacio De Paz is just 3-for-32 (9%, $1.09 ROI) off layoffs of 150 to 300 days over the past 5 years, so she might need a start. The other horse returning from a layoff is Malibu Moonshine (#1), who won a couple of stakes at Laurel as a 2-year-old. She has the opposite running style, closing from far back when she’s been successful. She attempted to make a return this summer at Laurel, and appeared to be launching a rally in upper stretch before flattening out. Something may have gone awry that day, as she’s since been off for another four months. Charlton Baker is 6-for-59 (10%, $0.90 ROI) with horses returning from 90 to 180 days over 5 years. I prefer a runner with experience. Some may consider Royal Poppy (#7), but she’s a “last time” type after paying over $20 when she won an N1X allowance event in October with a career-best speed figure. That victory also came over a sloppy, sealed track, and she has done her best running over sealed surfaces. My top pick is Rachel’s Rock (#4), who seems to be gradually improving since returning from a layoff this fall. She needed her return when fading a bit after chasing the improved Quick Munny. She then wasn’t racing on the best part of the track when chasing inside on Oct. 12. She returned 16 days later and put in her best effort yet despite settling for third again. She chased a very fast early pace, lost contact on the turn, and then was trying to mount a rally in the lane before having to alter course around a tiring leader. She has the versatility to work out the right trip this time, and it’s encouraging that she’s not being risked for a tag coming back at the same level as last time.
Fair Value:
#4 RACHEL'S ROCK, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 8
With some speed scratching out of this race, I’m not as keen to take what could be a short price on Who Hoo Thats Me (#7). He’s the horse to beat in his best form, but he’s returning from a layoff for Jorge Abreu, who is just 1 for 51 (2%, $0.16 ROI) off 120 to 240 day layoffs over the pat 5 years. this horse has run reasonably well off layoffs in the past, but he’s put forth his best efforts when he has a start under his belt. He showed some improved tactical speed prior to the layoff, but he’s still a horse who needs a bit of a setup. His main rival is Mariachi (#8), who does possess superior tactical speed and could be part of the pace. He’s moving up in class to face open company for the first time after an easy win against softer rivals last time. He’s definitely best at this 6-furlong distance, but he’s gotten very good trips when he’s been successful and isn’t earning TimeformUS Speed Figures that make him any kind of standout. I think both horses coming out of the Oct. 22 race att his level are a little interesting. Capone (#6) could take some money merely because he’s going out for Rick Dutrow, who has been on a hot streak lately. He chased a pace that fell apart that day and did stay on mildly for third, showing improvement over his prior form. Yet I’m most interested in Daufuskie Island (#5). It looks like his form has really tailed off, but his last race isn’t nearly as bad as it seems. He was right in the teeth of that competitive pace that collapsed, and he was basically eased through the final quarter mile as Jose Ortiz failed to persevere with him. His prior form makes him highly competitive here, even if he doesn’t get back to those TimeformUS Speed Figures of 120 or higher that he rattled off earlier in the season. I expect another aggressive ride from the apprentice and he might be able to run them off their feet at a square price.
Fair Value:
#5 DAUFUSKIE ISLAND, at 4-1 or greater
by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 2: 7 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 3: 3 - 6 - 5 - 2
Race 4: 9 - 4 - 6 - 10
Race 5: 7 - 4 - 9 - 10
Race 6: 8 - 7 - 5 - 2
Race 7: 1 - 6 - 8 - 2
Race 8: 4 - 1 - 2 - 7
Race 9: 2 - 12 - 7 - 4
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
I have little desire to take a short price on either likely favorite in this maiden special weight for New York-breds. Foxy Cara (#2) owns the best overall form, but she’s just had so many chances to break through at this level and continues to settle for minor awards. She’s clearly the one to beat. Scoring Chance (#1) is the other filly who figures to take money, as she makes her debut for Jorge Abreu. This barn does well with its first time starters, but she’s going to take money by default as the new face in this lineup. She also has Irad Ortiz aboard, so perhaps she’ll even go favored over her more experienced rival. I wanted to find some alternative, I think Monetary Monarch (#7) is viable. This filly doesn’t figure to get as heavily supported due to the low-profile connections, but this is the kind of race a lesser barn can win. She actually showed some ability on debut, but just seemed like one who probably needed the experience. She was off a bit slowly, but advanced willingly down the backstretch and into the turn before just flattening out a bit once asked for her best in the lane. She figures to be more professional this time with the addition of blinkers and Lasix.
Fair Value:
#7 MONETARY MONARCH, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 3
There’s no doubt that Bendoog (#6) is the horse to beat as he makes his U.S. debut following a campaign in Dubai. This U.S bred son of Gun Runner obviously has ability, having finished second in two rounds of the Maktoum Challenge this past winter, once to eventual Dubai World Cup runner-up Algiers. He himself competed in the World Cup, but faded after traveling well to the quarter pole. He’s lacked some finish in most of those races going longer in Dubai, so this turnback to a mile is supposed to suit him. His worktab looks pretty strong for the return as he makes his first start for Bill Mott. However, he’s totally unproven over American dirt, and he’s going to take plenty of money in an allowance race that looks a bit soft for the level. Many will consider his main rival to be Aggregation (#2), but I’m not thrilled with this horse stepping up in class. He beat a decent field of New York-breds last time, but did so controlling on the front end. I’ll be surprised if he gets away without pressure here, since both Daddy Knows (#5) and Bendoog have speed. That 7-year-old Ray Handal runner also has prior races that make him competitive here, and he was in great form prior to heading to the sidelines earlier this year. I’m just not sure we’re going to see his best performance off a layoff. The other Ray Handal trainee interests me more at what could be a better price. Fromanothamutha (#3) has looked cheaper than this at different points in his career, but he seems to be maturing into a better horse since getting gelded this spring. He progressed to win his starter allowance condition prior to the layoff, and then couldn’t make up any ground in a forwardly dominated race at Saratoga in August. I thought his last effort was a big step in the right direction. He always traveled well in behind the speeds, but was stuck in the pocket, and might have won if he had found a clear path in upper stretch. That was a day where forwardly placed horses were dominating, he did well to rally through kickback past rivals. He seems to be thriving right now and might be capable of an upset if the favorite is a little rusty off the bench.
Fair Value:
#3 FROMANOTHAMUTHA, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 4
The three main players exit the Oct. 27 race at this level won by Fake Celebrity. Slapintherace (#6) was the beaten favorite in that spot, but he ran pretty well even in defeat. He would be awfully tough for this field to handle if able to recapture the form that we saw from himat Saratoga two back when earning a career-best 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure behind Laurel Valley. However, he’s a horse who has needed significant time between each start, and I wonder what we’re going to get as he now squeezes in another race three weeks later at the end of turf season. Betterluckythangood (#4) rallied past him into second last time, putting in a strong effort in his first start following a 5-month layoff. He did get a great trip from Dylan Davis, saving ground on the turns before angling out in upper stretch. Yet he clearly took a step forward with the switch to grass, and he still has upside in just his third career start. My top pick is that race’s fourth-place finisher, Domination (#9). I thought this horse was interesting on debut based on his 2-year-old sales workout, where he looked like a turf-meant type. He certainly appreciated the lawn, but just seemed like a horse who needed that debut experience. Jose Ortiz gave him an educational trip. He always traveled in the bridle but was reserved towards the back of the pack early. He clearly had plenty of run left in upper stretch, but started lugging in once asked to produce a rally. He ultimately came through traffic willingly, but continued to race greenly to the wire. I think he’s going to build on that performance this time, and I won’t be surprised when he shows more speed in his second start. Todd Pletcher is 24 for 103 (22%, $2.43 ROI) with maiden second time starters making their second route attempt on turf over 5 years.
Fair Value:
#9 DOMINATION, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 5
This Central Park drew a strong and competitive field of 2-year-olds. Spirit Prince (#9) might be the horse to beat despite still being a maiden after four starts. He’s had trouble getting to the winner’s circle, but has run well every time, placing in three stakes events this summer and fall. He did disappoint as the heavy favorite last time in the Awad, but he was put in a difficult situation that day, having to chase down a run-off leader before trying to hold off closers. He might have moved a little too soon considering the fast pace. He makes sense here, but I didn’t want to settle for a short price on him. Uncle Truly (#4) seems like another who could take money off a visually impressive victory at Woodbine, which earned a strong 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He ran like a horse who needed his debut at Kentucky Downs, and the light bulb appeared to go on last time in Canada. He took a while to hit his best stride, but was really moving well with powerful, bounding strides through the final furlong as he pulled away from that group. He’s stepping up to face tougher this time, but he goes out for a dangerous barn. There are other recent maiden winners to consider, including Frontline Warrior (#10), who beat a solid field at Keeneland last time, and Buffoon (#11), who earned a strong 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his victory at that same venue. My top pick is the Chad Brown runner exiting a maiden victory. Walley World (#7) was surprisingly green on debut for a Chad Brown first time starter, reacting badly to the crop in upper stretch before getting slammed by a rival at the eighth pole. Chad put blinkers on for his second start and he looked like a completely different horse. He was far more engaged through the early stages of the race, but still rated kindly before producing his run. He forged to the lead in upper stretch and briefly looked as if he might get challenged before kicking on again, maintaining his speed through the wire. I get the sense there’s more talent here than the modest speed figure indicates. Chad Brown also has a knack for winning these races. He’s 10 for 31 (32%, $3.07 ROI) with last-out winners in 2-year-old turf route stakes over the past 5 years.
Fair Value:
#7 WALLEY WORLD, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 6
There’s plenty of guesswork to be done in this maiden special weight for 2-year-olds. Most of the horses who figure to take money are first time starters, and they’re all mildly intriguing for different reasons. High Track (#5) worked in company last week with Leslie’s Rose, who seems live in the first race today. P Mutter Pickle (#2) attracts Irad Ortiz for connections not known for winning with firsters, so that figures to garner her some support. Brooklyn Dantz (#7) is another who could be ready on debut for Leah Gyarmati, who used to have a lot more success with these types. Her dam is a full-sister to G3 Schuylerville winner Georgie’s Angle, the dam of Grade 1 winner Cave Rock. I just didn’t want to take a short price on any of those guesses, and I do think there’s one particularly interesting horse with experience. Mel’s Baby Sister (#8) didn’t earn much of a speed figure on debut, but the performance is a lot more encouraging than it looks. She was off slowly and sluggish through the early stages. Yet she actually traveled with some interesting around the turn, and might have made a mild late impact if she hadn’t started lugging in through the stretch. If she can get over that greenness this time, she can make a much bigger late impact. That race has also proven to be more live than it looked at first glance. The runner-up came back to win with a vastly improved speed figure, and the fifth-place finisher also returned to improve in the same race.
Fair Value:
#8 MEL'S BABY SISTER, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 7
This Forever Together is a difficult puzzle to solve. Regal Realm (#8) is obviously the horse to beat, but she’s not the kind of favorite that I want to take at a short price. She took advantage of a rail that was carrying speed last time at Kentucky Downs when she got to control that race on the front end. She’s not a horse who needs the lead, and she did run well from just off the pace three back at Canterbury. Yet even her third-place finish in the De La Rose was pace aided, as she just followed the winner around the track through slow fractions. The problem with finding an alternative is that so many of them are coming off poor efforts. Malavath (#5) is the best horse in this race when she’s in form, but it’s hard to trust her based on her two efforts for the Christophe Clement barn this year. A $3.3 million purchase after her excellent Breeders’ Cup Mile effort last season, she just hasn’t looked like the same filly as a 4-year-old. Faith in Humanity (#7) is also coming off an inexplicably dull effort last time, as she had nothing when asked for run in upper stretch and was eased late. She’s had trouble staying on the racetrack over the past year, and I don’t trust her to rebound here, especially with other speed signed on. Chili Flag (#6) seems a little more trustworthy, but even she is coming off a disappointing loss as the odds-on favorite. Her stablemate Implicated did come out of that race to win a stakes in her next start, but I’m still not quite convinced Chili Flag is quite this good despite her strong speed figures. Graham Motion also has two horses entered. Some might prefer Cigamia (#2), who has Irish form that should translate well to this spot. Yet Motion hasn’t had as much success with his European shippers in recent season, and this filly has been a bit one-paced in her races overseas. I’m actually more interested in his other runner, Willakia (#1), at what should be a better price. She looks inferior at first glance, but at least she appears to be heading in the right direction in a race where so many others might be on the downswing. She was beaten by favorite Regal Realm when they met at Gulfstream back in February, but this filly had a much tougher trip that day. Since then she’s run well in three starts since returning from a layoff. She probably didn’t get much out of her facile return victory, and then tired over a course with give in it at Pimlico. Yet I thought she took another step forward last time at Keeneland, closing well for second behind the talented Saffron Moon, who would be a major player in here. She drew well and might fly under the radar.
Fair Value:
#1 WILLAKIA, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 9
I had a tough time making the morning line for this race, since two of the main players are drawn on the AE list. Among those in the main body of the field, Can’t Fool Me (#7) feels like the horse to beat on the basis of her last turf race, a victory against a solid starter allowance field at Saratoga. She was somewhat with the outside flow that day, but she still made an early move to take over and would be tough here if able to reproduce that effort. Many of her rivals have questions to answer. I wanted to stay away from the horses stretching out, such as Supers Lucky Lady (#10), who could take money off her debut win. She doesn’t strike me as one that will get better with distance. I am intrigued by Sail With the Wind (#12) getting back on the turf. She seemingly improved on dirt, but she didn’t have a fair chance when she made her debut on grass at Saratoga. That race was run during a driving rainstorm, and was dominated by forwardly placed horses. She also had trouble in the run to the clubhouse turn, getting put in tight quarters and bumped before settling far back in the pack. She has more of a turf pedigree, and is supposed to move up on this surface. The drawback is that her last race was so poor, and she didn’t draw well. My top pick is Lady of Thoroton (#2). She can be a bit of an all-or-nothing type, but she’s certainly capable of beating a field like this on her best day. There’s supposed to be plenty of pace in here with so many speed types and stretch-outs signed on, and that should held a filly who can sometimes get too rank in races with slower tempos. She ran exceptionally well last time at Saratoga, since she hopped up at the start and was off very slowly. Yet she still somehow made up a ton of ground to get up for fourth against a much stronger field than the one she meets here. A repeat of that effort would put her in the winner’s circle, if she can work out a trip.
Fair Value:
#2 LADY OF THOROTON, at 9-2 or greater
#12 SAIL WITH THE WIND, at 5-1 or greater
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