TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona posts his picks & plays each live race day.

Thursday, February 13

David Aragona | @HorseToWatch
Race 1
3 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 2
4 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 3
5 - 1 - 3 - 6
Race 4
3 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 5
6 - 7 - 2 - 3
Race 6
5 - 2 - 1A - 3
Race 7
6 - 1 - 2
Race 8
3 - 4 - 7 - 6

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 2

I suppose Union Suit (#2) will be a clear favorite as she drops to the $16k claiming level in her second start off a layoff for Linda Rice. She was facing a slightly tougher field last time and was hardly disgraced in losing by just over 3 lengths. However, she wasn’t really finishing after contesting the pace, and now she’s being asked to stretch out to a mile. I don’t have much confidence that the added distance will suit her, and she figures to be a very short price merely due to connections. Karen’s Honor (#3) is a logical alternative after she closed for second at this level last time. She made a nice rally into contention around the far turn, but she really flattened out in the stretch, unable to bridge the gap to the leader to despite a slow final quarter mile. I also have some doubts about her stamina, and now her form is exposed. I’m trying to beat the shorter prices with Miti Fast Flower (#4). This 4-year-old filly obviously has much to prove on the NYRA circuit, having earned her only two victories at Delaware and Penn National. Yet she did run a competitive speed figure when she beat cheap claimers by 16 lengths two back, showing no problem handling a distance that’s slightly farther than today’s one-mile trip. She came off a slight layoff to try this level last time, but she lost all chance at the start of that race when she made a horrific stumble out of the gate, basically going to her knees. I’m willing to forgive that effort, and believe she can be more forwardly placed with a clean start. She’s worth a shot at a big price, especially getting a rider upgrade to Katie Davis.

Fair Value:
#4 MITI FAST FLOWER, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 3

With Ain't Not Joke coming out of this race, Camm’ Duke (#1) is likely to inherit hte favorite's role. He’s just awfully tough to trust at this 7-furlong distance. Stamina is not one of Camm’ Duke’s greatest assets, as we saw last time when he ran off on the front end and was basically out of gas with a furlong to go. Now he has to stretch out an extra furlong breaking from the rail. I want to take a shot against him with Noble Huntsman (#5), though he was more appealing with the other speed in the race. I know this horse appears to be well off his best form at the moment, but he’s been in the wrong spots recently. He was ridden too aggressively when contesting a fast pace two back, and last time he was actually finishing well going 6 furlongs, just running out of ground. In both races he was ridden by a jockey who hasn’t had much recent success on this circuit, and now he’s getting a significant upgrade to Lane Luzzi. His prior dirt form against tougher makes him highly competitive with this group, the 7-furlong distance should be ideal, and he figures to be a fair price.

Fair Value:
#5 NOBLE HUNTSMAN, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 5

There isn’t much to say about most of the short prices in this slog of a maiden claiming affair. The most interesting horse among the likely favorites is probably Daneel (#7), who gets an intriguing trainer switch to Steven Schauer, who has won with all three of his starters so far this year, including the much improved Giroovin. She actually kept decent company in her last couple of starts at Finger Lakes, not beaten very far by Mia Nipotina, who dominated a similar maiden group on this circuit last week. The stretch-out to a mile is a concern, but she can beat these with even minor improvement for the new barn. The other horse likely to take money is Barstool Babe (#2), who gets class relief for Linda Rice. She just doesn’t have much early speed, an issue for many of these, and is returning from an extended layoff. I want to go in a different direction with Sherman’s Marlin (#6). I tried this filly last time when she was making her first start off the switch to Dominick Schettino, and I didn’t love the trip she got. Breaking from the inside, she was shuffled back early and then continued to lose position around the far turn before staying on mildly late. She doesn’t look like she’s comfortable racing inside of horses, and she’s drawn either the 1 or 2 post position in every start so far. Now she finally gets an outside draw and a switch to Carol Cedeno, who figures to be a little more aggressive given the murky pace scenario. I’ll give her one more chance if the price is fair.

Fair Value:
#6 SHERMAN'S MARLIN, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 6

It’s tough to see Unbridled Bomber (#2) dropping into this $35k conditioned claimer after having been a fan of this horse for much of his career, but this is probably the level at which he belongs now. He just hasn’t been able to make much of an impact in his recent starts against optional claimers. I can make excuses for his effort two back where he met much tougher company in a speed-dominated race, but his last effort at Laurel is hard to look past. The problem with taking him here is that he’s going to be a relatively short price based on the class relief, but his lack of early speed doesn’t really fit the expected race flow. There just isn’t much pace signed on, and there could be even less if Jamie Ness happens to scratch the stronger half of his entry. That would be Certified Loverboy (#1A), who looks like the one they all have to catch. He ran better than it looks at this level last time when contesting a quick pace before fading around two turns. I like him cutting back to a mile here, but Jamie Ness hasn’t had that much success first off the claim at NYRA. He’s a little tough for me to trust at a short price. I also have some reservations about Alternate Reality (#3), who improved first off the claim back by Chris Englehart last time. However, he now hasn’t been seen in about 3 months, and the slight drop in class doesn’t exactly exude confidence. I want to try Suerte (#5) making his first start off the claim for Wayne Potts. Something clearly wasn’t working out when this gelding was in the Jamie Ness barn, as he ran terribly in both starts for that stable. However, his prior form makes him a legitimate player in this spot. He ran well behind Alternate Reality in that Nov. 8 affair, and prior to that had chased home the in-form Skylander. There isn’t that much speed in here, and this horse would enjoy the chance to stalk a slower pace. I also prefer him going a mile at this stage of his career, so I like this cutback to one turn.

Fair Value:
#5 SUERTE, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 8

Blue Eyed Scout (#4) looks like one of the strongest favorites of the day as she drops in for a tag for the first time. She’s actually run pretty well against maiden special weight company, chasing home the stakes-placed trio of Boston’s Phinest, Storm Changer, and Naive Melody over her last three starts. She now adds Lasix and takes off the blinkers that didn’t seem to help last time while dropping into the softest spot of her career. She’s obviously going to be a handful if she produces one of her good efforts, and would only be vulnerable if one of the lightly raced options is able to take a significant step forward. I’m hoping that’s the case with Je T’adore (#3). This filly was soundly beaten by the favorite when she made her debut in November, but she ran like a horse who badly needed that experience. Breaking from the inside post, she was off a bit slowly and outrun for the first furlong. She then started to greenly drop back further, climbing as she reacted to kickback. She eventually settled into her stride on the turn, and was finishing with some interest late despite losing by a large margin. Now she makes her second start for Ray Handal, who is a solid 5 for 22 (23%, $3.10 ROI) with maiden claiming second time on dirt over 5 years. She adds Lasix and drops to a realistic level.

Fair Value:
#3 JE T'ADORE, at 7-1 or greater
 


Friday, February 14

David Aragona | @HorseToWatch
Race 1
3 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 2
6 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 3
5 - 2 - 7 - 1
Race 4
3 - 8 - 7 - 5
Race 5
1 - 2 - 8 - 3
Race 6
1 - 8 - 6 - 5
Race 7
8 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 8
2 - 6 - 1A - 10

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 4

If Schlomo (#8) returns in top form he is going to be a handful for this group. He debuted in one of the toughest New York-bred maiden races of 2024 last March and was unlucky to lose. He got off to a poor start and made a long, sustained middle move to lead at mid-stretch before getting overhauled late. He then chased home a talented rival in Silver Satin second time out, earning a 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure that towers over this field. He did regresse when last seen in May, but he ran into the highly talented Vettriano that afternoon. Now he returns as a new gelding for a barn that can certainly have horses ready to fire fresh. His main rival might be another layoff runner. Palace Boss (#7) also hasn’t been seen since last May when he was mildly disappointing going a mile. This horse had been unlucky through her first couple of starts, trying an impossible spot on debut and then racing wide against an extreme rail bias second time out. He finally showed his true ability when he got on a fair racetrack last April, running second at 16-1. If he can build on that performance here, he’s a major player. I’m going in a different direction to a runner with some recency. Vitalize (#3) has run reasonably well in his last three dirt starts while settling for minor awards each time. While he can handle a mile on turf, I don’t think that route distances suit him on dirt where stamina is more of an issue. He actually ran quite well within the context of his last race, contesting a pretty quick pace and outdueling the other speeds before staying on for third. I didn’t love the trip he got when he cut back to a sprint two back, as he broke a step slowly and never had good position. This should be his first chance to sprint on a fast dirt track, and I think he will have more to offer under those conditions.

Fair Value:
#3 VITALIZE, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 6

McAfee (#8) would have been one of the favorites in last month’s Jerome if he hadn’t developed a leg infection that forced him out of that race, and DRF’s David Grening reports that he is still under consideration for the Wood Memorial. First he must prove he’s worthy by winning this starter allowance race on Friday. Expectations are high for this colt partly due to his pedigree, being a half-brother to 2024 Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna. Yet he’s also justified some of the hype by winning his debut with an impressive rally. He was narrowly defeated in his second start when stretched out to a mile at Churchill, but he was arguably best after getting put in tight quarters along the rail. A repeat of that 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure should be good enough to beat this group, but he’s only gotten in two workouts since his setback, and he lands in a race that doesn’t feature much early pace. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario favoring frontrunners, and that may give the advantage to My Mitole (#1). This colt doesn’t need the lead to be successful, as he proved last time when breaking his maiden following a stalking trip. Yet he does figure to get an aggressive ride from the rail here with so little other speed drawn to his outside. The only horse who looks quick enough to apply any pressure early is Brave Bear, but that one has lacked his typical early speed in his last two starts and sometimes struggles to get out of the gate. My Mitole showed talent in his debut before catching a very tough field second time out. That June 15 affair has been a key race, from which Mentee went on to win the Grade 3 Futurity and runner-up Colloquial recently returned to achieve a 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure. My Mitole stretched out to a mile when he returned from a layoff last November. He is bred to appreciate added distance on his dam’s side, and he showed some stamina to maintain his advantage through the stretch that day. He also still has room for improvement since he never changed leads in that victory. He’s been given plenty of time since then, and now steps up against winners while getting Lasix. I’m expecting another step forward, and he’s unlikely to be favored given the presence of McAfee.

Fair Value:
#1 MY MITOLE, at 9-5 or greater

RACE 7

It’s pretty obvious that Mariachi (#2) will beat this field if he returns in top form, but I think there has to be some concern about his condition off the layoff. He’s eligible for an open N2X allowance or even Saturday’s Say Florida Sandy, and probably would have attracted some support in the latter spot. However, he is instead dropping in for a $45k tag in a race where the connections are likely to lose him. It all seems a little strange, especially considering that he had appeared to be in the best form of his career when last seen in 2024. He finished a good second behind the talented Illuminare last time and earned a career-best 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure in his Saratoga victory two back. He’s obviously quick enough to make the lead here, but there’s other speed drawn outside of him, and he’s never been at his very best going a step beyond 6 furlongs. He can obviously win, but I wouldn’t want to settle for a short price. A few of the other contenders are exiting the Jan. 16 race at this level won impressively by Whatchatalkinabout. Aggelos the Great (#4) closed for second that day, but he was just picking up pieces behind the winner. He’s been in strong form over his last few starts and puts in a reliable late run. I just think he saw his ceiling last time. My top pick is Caldo Candy (#8), who only finished 3/4-length behind that rival in fourth. He didn’t break sharply and had to rush up to contest the pace along with the eventual winner. He stuck with that foe until the quarter pole at which point Whatchatalkinabout drew off from the field. However, Caldo Candy never threw in the towel and kept battling on inside, actually coming back on the third-place finisher across the wire. It was a big step in the right direction for a horse who lost all chance at the start when he returned from a layoff two back. Now he’s making his third start of this form cycle, and is once again drawn well outside of other speed.

Fair Value:
#8 CALDO CANDY, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 8

I don’t want to settle for a short price on this entry in the finale. First time starter Intellectual (#1) will take money merely because he’s co-owned by MyRacehorse, even thoug he’s bred to run long on the turf. His stablemate Total Silence (#1A)has stronger credentials, but it’s not as if he’s some standout in this field. He only lost by a nose at this level two back, but he was meeting a weaker field than the one he faces here. I’m more interested in a couple of alternatives at slightly better prices. One of those is Twohonestmischief (#6), who makes his first start off the claim for Chris Englehart. This colt didn’t show much early in his career, but he really woke up with the switch back to dirt in November, and then ran shockingly well in that lucrative NYSS stakes, checking in fifth at 96-1 with a career-best 90 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He couldn’t quite replicate that effort when dropped back down to this level last time, but perhaps he didn’t want to go a mile. Now he cuts back off the claim for the new barn. My top pick is Free Dance (#2), who drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. While he’s never been a serious threat to win in any of his prior starts, he’s kept some very good company. Sand Devil and National Identity, who beat him two and three back, went on to battle out the victory in a fast edition of the Damon Runyon last weekend. Even last time he was unfortunate to chase home a pair of talented runners in another fast race for the level. He also didn’t get the ideal trip that day, as he got shuffled back approaching the quarter pole before staying on late. I’m hoping he can get a more aggressive ride from this inside post and the class relief figures to benefit him.

Fair Value:
#2 FREE DANCE, at 3-1 or greater
 

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