Aqueduct TimeformUS Race Analysis

Picks & Plays for Friday, October 7

by David Aragona

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PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 2:   7 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 3:   1 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 4:   8 - 7 - 13 - 6
Race 5:   7 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 6:   1 - 8 - 7 - 5
Race 7:   8 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 8:   1A/1 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 9:   4 - 5 - 3 - 1

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: MR. MARLIN (#6)

I expect Chulligan (#2) to attract plenty of support as he makes his second start. This $825k son of Justify is out of the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winner Bar of Gold, so he’s obviously bred to be a good one. However, he looked very much like a work in progress on debut at Saratoga. He didn’t seem to be engaged early in the race when dropping to the back of the pack, and only got involved until the very late stages. However, that was a race that featured a strong pace, so he was basically picking up pieces at the end. He has a right to improve on the stretch-out to a mile, but I’m not keen to pick him at a short price. I’m more interested in runners coming out of a different race. Atlanta’s Acuna (#4) took plenty of money when he made his debut late in the Saratoga meet, but also ran a like a horse who needed the race. He broke a step slowly, rushed up to chase the pace, and then hung on his left lead while lugging in through the stretch. He strikes me as one that will improve with added ground, though I could also see him preferring turf eventually. My top pick is Mr. Marlin (#6). He finished behind Atlanta’s Acuna in that Sep. 5 affair, but he didn’t seem to put forth his best effort that day. Breaking from the rail, he just never looked to be traveling comfortably, reacting badly to kickback at a few points. We saw something similar in his debut when he dropped back on the turn before rallying strongly when angled into the clear for the stretch drive. Given that tendency to resent kickback, I like the outside post position for him. He also seems like one that should appreciate the stretch-out to a mile.

WIN: #6 Mr. Marlin, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 4

RACE 2: STEERAGE (#7)

Sinful Dancer (#2) must have been a frustrating project for his prior connections, as he clearly has ability but could just never put it all together. They ultimately gave up, dropping him into a $25k claimer last time. Yet he still failed to get the job done while nevertheless producing a respectable effort. Now goes first off the claim for Mertkan Kantarmaci, who switches him to back to turf here. While he did finish off the board as the favorite in his lone prior turf attempt, he got off to a poor start that day and didn’t run as badly as it seems. He’s still hard to trust as the favorite. The same goes for Martinez (#3), who showed some improvement off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez last time. Yet he’s had plenty of chances to break through at this level and just has a tendency to settle for minor awards. I’m trying to beat them with Steerage (#7). He had quite a trip on July 31 at Saratoga, as he was off slowly and then proceeded to get steadied in traffic after rushing up to chase the pace. He was again steadied in upper stretch when attempting to rally. While it may not seem like he improved at all last time, that was a much tougher spot. He was also chasing a fast pace in tandem with Heymackit’sjack, who came back to win. I think he’s capable of better than what he’s shown so far and he’s drawn well outside the other speeds.

WIN: #7 Steerage, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 4: EAGLE IN LOVE (#8)

If this race stays on the turf, I didn’t want to settle for short prices. Fieldstone (#3) and Dream of a Day (#12) are both obvious contenders after running well at a similar level up in Saratoga, but I thought both had their chances to get the job done last time. I want to instead look to some runners who appear to have more upside. Timbuktu (#13) would obviously factor if he drew into the field from the AE list, as he drops in for a tag for the first time. It’s not a good post position, but his form is superior to most in here. I think Fast Gordon (#7) is a little interesting as he makes his second start off the layoff. This 6-year-old is still pretty lightly raced, making just the ninth start of his career. He raced keenly stalking an honest pace that fell apart last time, but he never completely threw in the towel, battling all the way to the wire. He has a right to improve here for Linda rice, whose barn has been doing well at this meet. My top pick on turf would be Eagle in Love (#8) at what figures to be a bigger price. He’s never tried turf before, but he strikes me as one that should handle it. Progeny of Dialed In can take to grass, and this gelding is a half-brother to the talented Holy Invader, a versatile horse who ran some of his best races on turf. He moves more like a grass horse and ran his best race over a sealed track in his debut. He comes in off poor efforts, but he once showed talent and I think this surface switch could wake him up.

WIN: #8 Eagle in Love, at 9-1 or greater
USE: 7,13

RACE 5: BERT BERT BERT (#7)

Central Pride (#4) just seems like a logical favorite as he gets needed class relief while dropping in for a tag for the first time. I’m not sure why they ran him on turf 3 times, as he never showed much affinity for grass. All of his dirt performances against maiden special weight foes suggest he’s good enough to break through at this lower level. He was beaten by superior rivals last time out and actually finished up with some interest, suggesting a mile may be within his scope. However, John Terranova is just 3 for 31 (10%, $0.86 ROI) with maiden special weight to maiden claiming dropdowns over 5 years. I could also consider Midnight Express (#6) from that same race, as he does have some upside. He didn’t do much running after racing greenly early, but he should also appreciate the class relief, and Steve Klesaris does well with second time starters. My top pick is Bert Bert Bert (#7). This colt’s debut wasn’t actually that bad, as he was facing a pretty tough field of maiden special weight foes. He lacked early speed that day but was finishing up with some interest towards the end. He didn’t fare as well in his second start, but he was off for a long time thereafter. Since then he’s returned to run twice on turf for Charlton Baker with little to show for it. However, he’s better bred for dirt, so I like him getting back on this surface. The class relief figures to help, and I think he can finally build on his debut now that he’s spotted appropriately.

WIN: #7 Bert Bert Bert, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 9: CLASSIC LYNNE (#4)

I expect that Quick Power Nap (#1) will take some money off her dominant maiden score last time at Saratoga. She actually beat a decent field for the level and did so in reasonably fast time. However, Rudy Rodriguez doesn’t have particularly strong stats off the claim on turf, and he’s getting her from a strong turf outfit. Aunt Virginia (#5) is more appealing to me, as she did run well in her first start against winners after also breaking her maiden at the New York-bred $40k level. That last race came on dirt, but she did well to rally for second after stumbling badly at the start. I find it a little odd that her connections are now dropping her back in for a tag rather than giving her another shot against allowance company, but she does fit pretty well here. I would say the same for dropdown Romanosa (#3), who will appreciate class relief after facing much better at the open allowance level. Yet I want to go for a bigger price with Classic Lynne (#4). She’s never really panned out as a turf router since breaking her maiden going long last year. However, she may be a horse who’s just naturally suited to going shorter trips. She actually ran quite well in her career debut sprinting, and she showed very good speed last time at a tougher level. She actually forced that race to fall apart at the end, and she was compromised by a wide trip against a gold rail in her prior start. Joe Sharp does well with this turf sprinters and I think she’s landed in an appropriate spot.

WIN: #4 Classic Lynne, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 3,5

Picks & Plays for Thursday, October 6

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 1 - 4 - 3
Race 2:   10 - 11 - 1 - 12
Race 3:   3 - 5 - 6 - 1
Race 4:   9 - 16 - 11 - 14
Race 5:   4 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 6:   2 - 3 - 11 - 5
Race 7:   5 - 9 - 1 - 10
Race 8:   7 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 9:   8 - 3 - 10 - 12

PLAYS

RACE 3: CUPIDS GIRL (#3)

I don’t quite trust likely favorite Mommasgottarun (#6) to win her second race in a row as she moves up in class. She caught the right field last time at Saratoga when beating a weak group for trainer Brad Cox. Now she’s facing tougher rivals off the claim, and she’s generally done her best work when she’s a standout on paper. Dame Cinco (#5) has form to rival that of the favorite, but she’s making her first start off the claim for a barn that typically struggles on this circuit. She’s coming back on relatively short rest, so I won’t be surprised if she runs well again, but I would need a square price on her. I’m trying to beat these two with Cupids Girl (#3). It’s unclear how much pace aid this closer will receive, but I do think she’s catching a slightly softer starter allowance field than the those she’s faced in her last couple of starts. She made a nice late run for second at Saratoga two back, and last time just could never get involved in a race that was dominated towards the front. Aqueduct is generally kinder to off the pace types than Saratoga, and this filly usually gets dismissed at a fair price despite her solid record.

WIN: #3 Cupids Girl, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 8: PATTY H (#7)

Mosienko (#4) is the horse to beat once again as she continues to ascend the class ladder. However, I’m a little skeptical that this mare can continue her charmed run of success now that’s facing some legitimate open company foes. Putting aside that fast win at Saratoga two back, her other speed figures don’t exactly make her a standout in this group and she figures to be a short price. I’m also somewhat against her main rival Bank On Anna (#3). She got a perfect trip when catching a weak field in the Union Avenue last time. She is a 3-year-old who may just be improving now, but I think she may be a little overrated off that score. I’m trying to beat both of them with Patty H (#7). We haven’t seen her since the begging of January when she was making her first start off the claim for Tony Dutrow, and she never got a chance to deliver a true effort that day after stumbling badly at the start. Her form prior to that had been pretty strong, as she had twice bested the hard-knocking Easy to Bless in the summer and fall of 2021. Plenty of time has passed since then, but she isn’t catching a particularly tough field for this level off the layoff and she’s drawn well outside as the potential controlling speed. I would also use Movie Moxy (#6), who faced a better field at this level last time and appeared to take a step in the right direction after having lost her form earlier this year.

WIN: #7 Patty H, 7-2 or greater
USE: 4,6

Picks & Plays for Sunday, October 2

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 2:   1A - 5 - 9 - 10
Race 3:   9 - 10 - 11 - 3
Race 4:   9 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 5:   9 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 6:   2 - 7 - 1 - 3
Race 7:   6 - 1 - 8 - 3
Race 8:   2 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 9:   10 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 10:   13 - 9 - 16 - 2

PLAYS

RACE 2: DUBYUHNELL (#1A)

With this race coming off the turf, I’m not trying to beat MTO entrant Dubyuhnell (#1A). This horse debuted in a strong race on closing weekend at Saratoga, with that heat coming up the fastest of three juvenile maiden races on the card. He had reportedly worked well into that race but didn’t take too much money in a race that featured a few key players with experience. He ran like a horse who needed the race, as he stalked the pace, then briefly disengaged on the turn, but found more in the lane once set down. He seems like one that is supposed to appreciate added ground, and he should be more focused with blinkers being added for the second start. Furthermore, Danny Gargan is 12 for 42 (29%, $2.43 ROI) with maiden second time starters on dirt over the past 5 years. I prefer him to the other MTO runner Kaon (#10), who didn’t do as much running in a weaker race. I wouldn’t totally discount a couple of the runners intended for turf, as Conversing (#5) and Ari Gold (#9) have some dirt pedigree and have trained well on the main track. However, both are going to get bet off their solid turf debuts and have something to prove as they switch over to the main track.

WIN: #1A Dubyuhnell, at 8-5 or greater

RACE 4: IRON LION IN ZION (#9)

I suppose Misbehaved (#4) is the horse to beat as he drops back in for a claiming tag for the second time in his career. He broke his maiden when risked for $50k two back Churchill, though he did benefit from a very fast pace that day. He was never a factor against starter allowance foes last time at Saratoga, but I can be somewhat forgiving of that performance, since he was facing tougher company. This is a realistic drop, but I do find it odd that Pletcher is putting blinkers back on after this horse ran two of his worst races with blinkers. There isn’t much speed signed on in this race, which could work against Blu Grotto (#3) as he returns from a layoff. He does have plenty of prior races that make him a contender here, but he’s fairly unreliable and this barn isn’t known for success off layoffs. I’m going with a different closer. Iron Lion in Zion (#9) is going to have to find a way to sit a bit closer to the pace here, but I do think he ran better than it appears last time out. He was slammed by another rival coming out of the starting gate before settling in mid-pack. He then launched a decent rally to nearly get up for third behind a pair of superior rivals. The third-place finisher from that affair returned to run well against a tougher field here last week with an improved speed figure. He has more upside than some others and fits at this level.

WIN: #9 Iron Lion in Zion, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 6: WASP (#2)

While Jane Grey (#1) did handle the mile last time and improved her speed figure a few points, I’m not convinced that she’s necessarily better with added distance. She also got the front end that day, and this time there is plenty of other speed drawn to her outside. She’s arguably the horse to beat after handling the slop last time, but I preferred others. Spiked (#7) makes plenty of sense as she cuts back to a mile after chasing home the undefeated Fingal’s Cave at 1 1/8 miles last time. She’s taken a step forward with each start and is an effective stalker who doesn’t necessarily need to be vying for the lead. They’re both logical contenders, but I wanted to go with a more experienced foe. Wasp (#2) doesn’t have the obvious upside of the aforementioned two, but she has been in solid form lately. I’m not going to hold her loss in the Yaddo against her, since she was put in the difficult position of dueling with heavy favorite Make Mischief on the front end. Prior to that she had run some nice races at this level. I like her running style for this race, because there’s plenty of speed signed on and she’s been effective closing from mid-pack. She also wouldn’t mind some moisture in the track, as she’s run well over sloppy surfaces before.

WIN: #2 Wasp, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 8: AMERICAN ROCKETTE (#2)

Chocolate Gelato (#4) is the filly to beat in this Frizette off her impressive maiden score in her second career start at Saratoga. She had been hyped prior to her debut on opening day, but was a little lackluster on that afternoon. She obviously benefited from the experience, as she displayed improved early speed in her second start, and ran clear to an easy victory. That said, she did get away with a pretty moderate pace last time, and now she has to deal with a few other quality speed types in here. All three runners drawn to her outside want to be vying for early command, so Irad Ortiz could be forced to use Chocolate Gelato more aggressively than the connections might like. She’s a deserving favorite, but I didn’t want to accept a very short price on her given the question marks. The Great Maybe (#6) is one of those who should be challenging the favorite early. She didn’t break that sharply in her debut, but quickly rushed up to duel for the lead. She got away at the quarter pole and ran clear to a commanding score. Like the favorite, she has to stretch out an extra two furlongs here, but she’s obviously talented. Some may also be enticed by You’re My Girl (#7) off a similarly impressive debut score, but she was beating a much weaker field of New York-breds and has to get faster. Two contenders in this Frizette exit last month’s Spinaway at Saratoga, including winner Leave No Trace (#1). She was obviously in great form over the summer, running well to win her debut before putting forth a similar effort in that stakes last time. However, she got perfect trips on both occasions and now has drawn the inside post. I’m instead interested in American Rockette (#2) out of the Spinaway. She obviously has to get faster as one of the slower fillies coming into this race. However, she severely compromised herself at the start last time when she bolted to the outside fence after the gates opened. She ultimately got back on track, but was still a little green while rejoining the field. I thought she did well to pass rivals in a race that didn’t exactly favor the closers. She has to prove she can handle added distance here, but she strikes me as one that’s still figuring things out. She also figures to get the right pace setup when plenty of speed signed on.

WIN: #2 American Rockette, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 10: ROYAL TRYST (#13)

In the likely event this race comes off the turf, it actually will transform into an interesting dirt race with plenty of Main Track Only entrants to fill out the field. That said, one of the turf-meant runners I Am the Law (#2) figures to take money off his runner-up finish at this level in his last start at Saratoga. He ran pretty well that day, setting an honest pace before settling for second. However, he’s not the most reliable win candidate, and his prior dirt races don’t exactly inspire much confidence. Corkman (#16) finished behind that rival on Sep. 5 in an even effort, but he did come back with a slightly better performance last week when finishing second against claimers. He goes out for a dangerous barn and must be considered. I think Patient Capital (#9) is a little interesting if this race stays on the turf, but he’s also one to consider on the dirt off his last performance. It’s a step up in class, but Mike Maker can be pretty crafty in these off the turf affairs. My top pick on the dirt is Royal Tryst (#13). He obviously handles wet tracks, as he’s run two of the best races of his career over wet going. His overall form is inconsistent, but he did show that he’s still capable of running competitively two back when he won the first race of the Saratoga meet. He seemingly regressed off the claim for Marcelo Arenas last time, but he had little chance to close into a slow pace in a race that was dominated on the lead. I actually like this slight turnback for him and he could get overlooked due to the low-profile barn.

WIN: #13 Royal Tryst, at 9-2 or greater

Picks & Plays for Saturday, October 1

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 2:   9 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 3:   4 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 4:   2 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 5:   8 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 6:   6 - 7 - 15 - 10
Race 7:   1 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 8:   2 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 9:   5 - 10 - 12 - 2
Race 10:   2 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 11:   5 - 8 - 6 - 3

PLAYS

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.

RACE 6
WIN: #6 Bold Journey, at 8-5 or greater

RACE 9
WIN: #5 Yes and Yes, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 10
WIN: #2 Top Recruit, at 3-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Friday, September 30

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 2:   2 - 7 - 4 - 3
Race 3:   8 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 4:   7 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 5:   5 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 6:   4 - 12 - 2 - 10
Race 7:   9 - 7 - 4 - 3
Race 8:   3 - 5 - 2 - 8
Race 9:   1 - 4 - 5 - 3

PLAYS

RACE 2: LIA MARINA (#2)

Mail Order (#7) is the horse to beat even though she finished behind a rival that she meets again here in her last start. This Mott trainee completely blew the start last time, as she hit the gate and broke over a length slowly. To make matters worse, she then quickly rushed up to take the lead, exerting far too energy in the opening quarter. She ultimately paid the price in fading to third. This time the start isn’t as critical with her drawing the outside post position. She also should appreciate the stretch-out to 6 furlongs. That said, she is a horse who has one standout speed figure and will be a short price. I do prefer her to Mischievous Dream (#3), who just picked by second by default last time in a race that may not be as strong as the speed figures indicates. I’ve never been the biggest fan of her and believe she would have to improve. The other Clement runner also needs to take a step forward, but at least Lia Marina (#2) has significant upside. She was never going to be competitive with the talented Spendarella last time, and she was game to win that stakes two back over some horses who have since improved. She started out her career as a sprinter, so this seems like a natural spot to bring her back off the layoff. I also view it as a sign of confidence that Clement had originally entered her in the Pebbles Stakes a few weeks ago before scratching in favor of this race. Strong Odor (#4) had some trouble in her last race at Gulfstream and is another that I could use underneath in her return from the layoff.

WIN: #2 Lia Marina, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 4,7

RACE 3: BAVARIAN CREME (#8)

I suppose Photon (#7) could take some money as she tries turf for the first time, but she’s not the kind of horse I want switching surfaces. She’s going to take money based on her dirt performances, and she really doesn’t have that much pedigree for grass. Succulent (#6) is the horse to beat as she attempts to earn her first official victory after crossing the wire first last time and getting disqualified. She’s been in great form for David Donk lately, but she is a deep closer who is always at the mercy of pace. Tara Dancer (#4) seems like a candidate to rebound after she got a strange trip last time. She was allowed to race in the 3-path for much of that race during a time where you wanted to be inside, and she just dropped back on the turn under little encouragement. She had run better in her debut, but did benefit from a soft pace that day. My top pick is Bavarian Creme (#8). I think she’s run better than it appears in both turf starts to date. She was compromised by a slow start and a lack of aggression when she made her turf debut on May 30. She actually seemed to handle the surface pretty well that day in closing for fourth. She finished last of 12 in her most recent turf attempt at Saratoga, but everything went wrong from a trip standpoint. She was bumped at the start and then forced to race 4-wide on the turns during a time when you had to save ground. She’s better than that and would benefit from a more aggressive ride here.

WIN: #8 Bavarian Creme, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 4: DORSODURO (#7)

I just didn’t want to default to the two favorites in this $40k maiden claimer. Actualize (#4) and Upper Level (#6) both make plenty of sense, but they’re going to take all the money as they each drop down out of maiden special weight events. Actualize has the superior recent form and makes plenty of sense off his last effort. However, he’s not the most reliable type and the connections did try to drop him in for $20k early in the Saratoga meet. Upper Level ran a race on debut that would make him awfully tough for this group to handle. However, it's odd that they went right to turf and it feels like he may have gone the wrong way since then. This barn has been having a tough go of it this year and I didn’t want to take a short price on him either. I don’t love my pick of Dorsoduro (#7), but I do think he’s a little interesting as a runner who could get ignored on the tote board. His speed figures aren’t as fast as others, but he is also dropping out of some tougher maiden special weight events. He faced good horses in each of his last two starts, and prior to that he actually raced competitively in a couple of his 2-year-old performances. Roy Lerman has solid stats off this type of layoff in a small sample, and he’s been working pretty aggressively for this return.

WIN: #7 Dorsoduro, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 6: GALATRONA (#4)

Showemyourheels (#13) would alter the complexion of this race if she got in off the AE list, because I do think she’d be the horse to beat. She arguably ran the best race of anyone exiting that common July 28 affair at Saratoga, as she got squeezed back at the start and rallied well through traffic for fourth. Like others in here, she’s been entered a few times since then, but keeps getting stuck on the AE list. Fancypants Juliana (#2) and Moonage Daydream (#10) also ran well in that July 28 affair and can improve, but I think there are some other new faces that are a little more intriguing. Ma Mi Jo Dreams (#12) switches surfaces following a dirt debut in which she flashed brief speed and faded. Freud is obviously a strong turf influence, and the dam is a half-sister to a few multiple turf winners, including stakes-placed Amazing Anne and Deciphering Dreams, who were both sired by Freud. Furthermore, Rick Schosberg is 5 for 25 (20%, $4.58 ROI) with maiden second time starters over 5 years. My top pick is first time starter Galatrona (#4). Get Stormy isn’t the best debut influence, but he is an underrated turf sire. The dam has produced 6 winners from as many foals to race, 3 of which are turf sprint winners. The best of those is 3-time turf winner Fontanafredda, who is a three-quarter sister. H. James Bond often gives his debut runners a start, but this filly has shown some speed in the mornings feels live with Joel Rosario being tapped to ride.

WIN: #4 Galatrona, at 9-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #12 Ma Mi Jo Dreams, at 10-1 or greater

RACE 7: FINEST WORK (#9)

I’ll be interested to see how the public approaches Make Mischief (#2), who is a real wild card in this lineup as she makes her turf debut in the 21st start of her career. If she merely transfers her dirt form to grass, she’ll be awfully tough for this group to handle. Into Mischief wins with an excellent 14% of his turf route starters, and all 4 of the dam’s other foals to race are turf winners. However, she’s going to take money off her dirt speed figures and those types are often bad bets. Marvelous Maude (#4) might be the horse to beat as she drops back in against New York-bred company. I won’t hold the last-place finish in the Flower Bowl against her, as that was Plan B once the Yaddo was rained off the turf. She’s moved forward with nearly every start, and will be tough if able to build on that open N1X victory from earlier in the Saratoga meet. I think the 9 furlongs suits her, but I don’t love the likely price as Irad Ortiz rides for Chad Brown. Finest Work (#9) finished just behind that filly when they met in that July 30 affair, but I thought she ran just as well in defeat. She had to briefly pause when attempting to rally between horses in the stretch and was finishing well late. She’s been in excellent form all year for George Weaver and seems to be handling any added distance they throw at her. I’m hoping Manny Franco can work out a stalking trip. I would also use Runaway Rumour (#7) if the price is fair. She has lost 10 races in a row since winning the first 3 starts of her career, but I thought her last race represented a significant step in the right direction. She just barely lost to Vigilante’s Way, who is superior to any runner she meets in this lineup. I also like the rider switch to Prat.

WIN: #9 Finest Work, at at 5-1 or greater
USE: 7

RACE 9: DIAMOND HANDS (#1)

Marketsegmentation (#5) was impressive in her career debut last December, earning a strong 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That number makes her competitive here without much improvement needed. She has to overcome a 10-month layoff, but this barn does have fantastic numbers off this kind of layoff. My one knock against her is that she did get an absolutely perfect trip on debut, and is stepping up into a tougher spot here. I actually think her Chad Brown stablemate is a little more interesting at a better price. Salimah (#4) was visually impressive in her Tampa debut earlier this year. She was off for a long time after that, but didn’t run as badly as it seems in her return last time. She got rank in the early stages and then proceeded to get floated wide around both turns. She never had a chance given the ground loss and may do better here second off the layoff. However, I can’t get past the likely pace advantage for Diamonds Hands (#1). I actually think she deserves to be favored here, and I’m not sure that will be the case with Marketsegmentation in the field. She ran very well when she was left alone up front last time, just getting run down by Bahamian Club, who came back validate that performance with a solid third-place finish in the Pebbles. Diamond Hands also ran better than it appears two back when she got the wrong trip, setting the pace inside during a time when closers had an advantage on that course at Belmont. For a 12-horse field, there really isn’t much pace signed on, and she’s just supposed to get clear early from her advantageous inside post position.

WIN: #1 Diamond Hands, at 2-1 or greater
USE: 4

Picks & Plays for Thursday, September 29

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 2:   7 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 3:   4 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 4:   3 - 6 - 7 - 5
Race 5:   1 - 6 - 8 - 5
Race 6:   7 - 2 - 5 - 8
Race 7:   2 - 8 - 6 - 5
Race 8:   8 - 9 - 3 - 5
Race 9:   8 - 9 - 11 - 3

PLAYS

RACE 4: BIG Q (#3)

My primary opinion in this $25k claimer is that I want to play against the Jose Camejo entry of Viradia (#2) and Alpine Queen (#2B). Many will just assume they’ll improve off the claim since Camejo has had a great deal of success with this NYRA starters and he’s named top riders on both. I just don’t need a short price on horses who are little hard to like based on form. U Guys Are No Fun (#7) makes some sense as she drops in for a tag for the first time in her career. However, she’s been a bit of a disappointment on dirt, and I’m not convinced that she’s a natural sprinter. She’s also being ridden by a jockey who has limited success on this circuit. My top pick is Big Q (#3). She ran poorly last time out as the favorite, but she’s getting a trainer upgrade out of that race, as she was claimed by Jose D’Angelo. This barn hasn’t started that many runners in New York, but does well off the claim out of town. She has plenty of prior races at a higher level that would make her competitive here. I also expect her to get an aggressive ride from Luis Saez in a race that lacks a clear pace scenario. The other horse I’d use from that same race is Shadolamo (#6). I think it’s interesting that the connections are reuniting her with Jackie Davis, who rode her well earlier in the year. She’s more pace dependent than my top pick, but she’s run well in each of her last two dirt sprints.

WIN: #3 Big Q, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 6,7

RACE 6: FOUETTE (#7)

This optional claiming turf sprint seems fairly wide open, and I’m somewhat against the horse who I’ve pegged as the morning line favorite. Hit the Woah (#5) figures to attract some support off her victory at the N2X level last time. However, she got a great setup that day, just tracking the pace in a race where the heavy favorite was compromised by rushing up to lead after a poor start. I’m not thrilled with her prior form and want others. My top pick is Fouette (#7). She made her turf debut in the Smart N Fancy last time at Saratoga and significantly outran her 37-1 odds to finish sixth, beaten less than two lengths. Linda Rice has been intending to get her on turf, entering and scratching her from the Caress prior to running in that stakes last time. While she got a pretty good trip, I liked the way she fought on along the rail through the lane finishing in tandem with some rivals who would be short prices against a field like this. She has good tactical speed and is drawn well outside this time. I would also use Keeper of Time (#2) on the turnback in distance. She hasn’t gone quite this short in any of her U.S. starts, but I thought she ran well at 7 furlongs in the Glen Cove last fall. The turnback could work for her, and she figures to be a decent price.

WIN: #7 Fouette, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 2

RACE 8: AFFABLE MONARCH (#8)

Golden Alchemist (#3) could go favored in this N1X allowance affair. He looks pretty formidable if you draw a line through his last race, where he disappointed in a Grade 3 at Parx. Some horses just don’t perform over that track, and he never really got involved in the race that day. His maiden victory in July was excellent and he’ll be tough to beat if he builds on that performance. I’m just not so keen to simply dismiss the last race of a horse who is going to be a short price. Todd Pletcher sends out two of his main rivals in Gasoline (#5) and Up to the Mark (#6). I’ll be interested to see if they both run, since they possess similar running styles. Gasoline is proven at the distance after breaking his maiden going this far last time, though he got a perfect setup in doing so. Winit (#9) easily defeated Gasoline when he broke his maiden in July at Belmont, earning a speed figure that makes him formidable here. However, he failed to back up that performance last time at Saratoga. He did have an excuse that day, as he was off a step slowly and rushed up while getting too keen after that. I think he’s a candidate to rebound here at a better price. Even if Pletcher scratches one of his runners there appears to be enough pace in here to set up a late closer. Affable Monarch (#8) comes into this NYRA start a little light on speed figures, but I think he be ready for a step forward. This horse showed promise as a 2-year-old, impressively winning his debut before immediately stretching out in distance. He was slow to come around when he returned from a layoff this year, but his last few starts have been heading in the right direction. I thought he ran particularly well last time when overcoming a moderate pace to just miss. He seems like one that’s crying out for 1 1/8 miles and Manny Franco should be a good fit for this grinder.

WIN: #8 Affable Monarch, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 9

RACE 9: LEFTEMBEHIND (#8)

I have no problem with the two experienced runners who are likely to attract support in this spot. Uncle Marty (#11) is logical off his narrow loss late in the Saratoga meet. He ran like a typical Linda Rice firster who needed his debut before improving with the switch to dirt in his second start. He didn’t earn much of a speed figure that day, but did close nicely and can build on that performance. Deliberate Risk (#9) is perhaps a bit more interesting as he makes his first start against New York-bred company. He faced some very good rivals in his California debut. Three of the top 4 finishers have returned from that race to improve their TimeformUS Speed Figures by anywhere from 10 to 34 points in their next starts, including runner-up Hejazi, who ran a 117 in the fastest maiden race of the year. Deliberate Risk obviously finished far back, but Jack Sisterston’s runners often need a start. There are plenty of first time starters with appealing pedigrees if looking beyond those with experience. The one who interests me most is Leftembehind (#8). Barclay Tagg isn’t known for debut success, but he can certainly have a first time starter ready to debut on dirt. This $130k son of Accelerate is the first foal out of a dam who was a multiple stakes-placed sprinter in California. I like the way this horse has been working leading up to this and expect him to show up with a good effort. He also could get dismissed at a fair price given the presence of a few firsters with more appealing profiles and pedigrees.

WIN: #8 Leftembehind, at 6-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Sunday, September 25

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 2:   1 - 3 - 5 - 7
Race 3:   6 - 2 - 9 - 5
Race 4:   1 - 2 - 6 - 4
Race 5:   3 - 2 - 10 - 6
Race 6:   3 - 10 - 8 - 11
Race 7:   5 - 8 - 11 - 3
Race 8:   3 - 2 - 10 - 1
Race 9:   1 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 10:   4 - 2 - 8 - 5

PLAYS

RACE 1: BLANCHIMENT (#4)

I primarily want to focus on the maiden special weight dropdowns in here, and the one that I find most appealing is second time starter Blanchiment (#4). She finished far back in her only start, but that was a very fast race won by subsequent stakes winner Maple Leaf Mel. She actually did some running on the backstretch to pass half the field after a slow start, and then flattened out. While she was passed by today’s rival Joey the Fish (#6) in deep stretch, I thought Blanchiment did more running than that foe overall. She’s now getting logical class relief and should strongly factor here with a clean break. Darknstormy (#2) exits a maiden special weight race late in the Saratoga meet. She had some traffic while lugging in though the stretch, so perhaps adding blinkers and drawing the rail will help. I preferred these with experience to a few of the first time starters, especially those that could take money like the half of the Repole entry.

WIN: #4 Blanchiment, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 2

RACE 3: MY LIPS ARE SEALED (#6)

Spungie (#2) feels like the horse to beat even though she failed to hit the board as the favorite last time. She was coming off a long layoff that day, and was also never inside during a period of time when the rail was a significant advantage on the inner turf course at Saratoga. She has superior prior form and will be tough if able to bounce back to one of her better efforts. However, I slightly prefer My Lips Are Sealed (#6) from that same race. Rob Atras trainees typically need a start coming off layoffs, but this mare ran quite well off the bench. She contested a fast pace while racing in the two-path, always off that advantageous rail. Now she cuts back a sixteenth of a mile, which figures to help her, and she looks like the main speed. I much prefer these two to Home for Christmas (#1), who could also take money exiting that Aug. 14 affair. She rode the rail for almost her entire trip. Some will focus on the fact that she briefly head to pause in mid-stretch, but she had a lot work in her favor prior to that. The one other horse who interest me a bit at a much bigger price is Masterof the Tunes (#9). She lands in a tough spot, as she’s racing above her eligible N1X condition. However, she ran better than it might appear last time after working out a wide trip and encountering traffic. She can pick up some pieces if any pace develops.

WIN: #6 My Lips Are Sealed, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 2,9

RACE 5: RIPE FOR MISCHIEF (#3)

If I’m going to take anyone from that Aug. 27 affair at Saratoga, I want it to be horses that were forwardly placed, as that race completely fell apart. Kreesa (#6) and Empire Sky (#5) both closed to get into the trifecta and are sure to take money off those performances. However, they each benefited from the hot early pace and I’m not sure how much running either one actually did. Kreesa is probably more appealing given his obvious upside as a second time starter, but he’s also going to be the shortest price. I prefer Ripe for Mischief (#3) from that race. He got a strange trip, as he was ridden hard to challenge the leader early before backing off on the turn. He then came again at the end and lost his path right at the wire, though that late trouble didn’t significantly alter the result. This horse interests me because he also ran better than it appears in his prior starts. Three back he set a very fast pace that fell apart and last time he got a wide trip chasing another quick pace. However, I do also want to look beyond those exiting that Travers day maiden event and consider a couple of new faces. My Slick Nick (#2) might be placed too ambitiously on the class rise, but I’ve been waiting for him to try the turf. His dam was strictly a turf horse and he looks like one that should move up on this surface. He also has the speed to be forwardly placed in a race that doesn’t feature that much pace. The other interesting runner is Racey Type (#10), who also tries turf for the first time while switching into the Asmussen barn. He’s by good turf influence Freud, and is a half to one decent turf horse.

WIN: #3 Ripe for Mischief, at 9-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #2 My Slick Nick, at 20-1 or greater

RACE 6: TRIPLE START (#3)

There is some guesswork to be done in this two-year-old maiden special weight event. Chad Brown entered a pair of first time starters, but will only go with Kaw Liga (#8) , who looked the weaker of his two runners based on their dirt workouts. He has the better pedigree for grass as a half-brother to turf stakes winner Cavalry Charge. This $600k purchase for Peter Brant does appear to be spotted appropriately. I’m more interested in those with experience. Coach Petro (#11) figures to take money now that he's drawn into the field from the AE list. However, I thought he got a great trip last time and probably should have won that race given his experience going in. Determinedly (#10) drops back into maiden company after trying a stakes last time. Yet I was expecting a better effort from him that day. It wasn’t the strongest race for the level and he just lacked late punch. He did have some trouble two back, but he also had the pace in his favor that day. I’m going in a different direction with first time turfer Triple Start (#3). This son of American Pharoah was meant for turf on debut, but stayed in once the race was rained onto the dirt. He put in a game effort to challenge the winner a couple of times before fading in the stretch. He strikes me as one that should improve on turf given his pedigree. Though he is a half-brother to Persistently, a Grade 1 winner on dirt, his second dam Heavenly Prize proved to be a strong turf influence as a broodmare. He’s also a half-brother to Double Jackpot, who has been a good turf producer as a broodmare. I liked the one grass workout that I saw up in Saratoga, and think he can step forward in his second start.

WIN: #3 Triple Start, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 8: THISMIGHTBETHEONE (#3)

Kelly Breen sends out a couple of fillies making their first starts off the claim, both exiting strong barns and coming off last-out victories. Train to Artemus (#8) exits the stronger performance, having run a field off its feet last time en route to a 3-length score. However, the margin would have been closer if the runner-up hadn’t blown the start that day.Crowding Out (#10) might be a little more reliable off her last performance, though she was facing a weak field that day and inexplicably failed to show up two back. I ultimately wanted to look for some alternatives. Abuse of Power (#2) makes sense as she takes her second crack at this condition. She ran fine first off the claim for Horacio De Paz last time when perhaps used a bit too much early in the race. She earned a strong speed figure for her victory two back and will be tough with a repeat of that performance. My top pick exits the same race, but finished farther back. Thismightbetheone (#3) looks a little light on the speed figure scale coming into this, but she’s in better form than it appears. She rode the rail in her May 14 performance at a time when you didn't really want to be inside on the inner turf course at Belmont. Then two back she clipped heels, losing all chance early in the race. And last time out she found herself so far back early due to a bad stumble at the start before making a decent late run. I think she’s dangerous if Prat can finally work out a trip for her.

WIN: #3 Thismightbetheone, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 2

RACE 10: ELLE EST FORTE (#4)

Likely favorites Transient (#2) and Blue Times (#8) finished second and third, respectively, in a similar race at this level on Sep. 2 at Saratoga. Both ran well off layoffs that day, and have a right to improve with races under their belts. I feel the distance is a more natural fit for Transient, but Blue Times does possess dangerous early speed in a race lacking pace. They’re the two horses to beat, though I could also use Lisheen (#5) from that same race. She was never on the rail and did run well going this distance when she broke her maiden last year. The horse who figures to take some money who I don’t want is Myriskyaffair (#6). She got a pretty good trip to be third last time in a race that was dominated towards the front end. However, I don’t think she’s run particularly well on turf despite earning competitive speed figures. I’m going in a different direction with Elle Est Forte (#4). I wouldn’t use this filly’s last race as evidence that she can’t handle added distance. She just seemed to get lost in mid-pack over that quirky Kentucky Downs course, and sustained some hard bumps in the lane before flattening out. Her prior form was solid and she gets a rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz. She’s a grinding type who seems like one that could be suited by the added distance.

WIN: #4 Elle Est Forte, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 2,5,8