Aqueduct TimeformUS Race Analysis

Picks & Plays for Sunday, February 28

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 2 - 6 - 4
Race 2:   1 - 4 - 5 - 6
Race 3:   2 - 4 - 1
Race 4:   6 - 7 - 1 - 4
Race 5:   1 - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 6:   8 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 7:   7 - 6 - 4 - 3
Race 8:   2 - 3 - 7 - 6

PLAYS

RACE 1: TEKILA (#1)
Likely favorite Coal Shaft didn't show much in her turf debut, only getting on track late once the race was basically over. However, she switched to dirt for her second start, and the light bulb appeared to go on. With blinkers added, she was keener in the early going, making an early backstretch move to challenge the leader. She chased that rival for a half-mile and never got past, but nevertheless turned in an improved performance. A repeat of that performance may be good enough here, and can improve in just her third start, but others have plenty of upside as well. I prefer Iaintafraidanoghost out of that race. She finished just a head behind today’s rival Coal Shaft, as both lost to a longshot winner. There’s some doubt about the overall quality of that race, but Jan. 15 was a day that appeared to favor front-runners, so his filly deserves credit for making up ground in the stretch. She’s improved with added distance in each start, and has a right to take another step forward second off the layoff. My top pick is coming in from a different direction. Tekila was no match for the impressive Hit the Woah in her debut, a race that produced five next-out winners. She raced greenly that day, dropping back on the turn after showing some early speed. Yet she was more professional last time, stalking outside before staying on for second. That performance was flattered when winner Hybrid Eclipse returned to win an allowance at Laurel by 6 lengths, third-place finisher Maracuja also came back to win, improving her TimeformUS Speed Figure by 12 points. She shouldn’t mind the one-mile distance based on pedigree.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,6

RACE 5: FOREVER CHANGED (#1)
Invaluable is a deserving favorite as she moves back up to this N1X condition after defeating starter allowance foes last time. The last time she ran at this level she just missed to subsequent Grade 3 stakes winner Mrs. Danvers, and two back she ran exceptionally well against males when second to today’s third race favorite Tenderfoot. She finally go back to the winner’s circle last time going six furlongs, defeating today’s rival Sirenic. As long as she holds her form, she’s going to be tough for this field to handle. The only knock is that she’s going to be a pretty short price as an obvious standout in this field. Sirenic is an alternative that some may consider based on how well she ran last time, winning a starter allowance event by over 9 lengths. However, she benefited from a very strong rail bias on Feb. 8, getting to the lead and the rail soon after the start. She could be the speed again this time, but she’s struggled over wet tracks before and was no match for others in this race in prior outings. I want to lean in a different direction. Forever Changed has tried this level in each of her last two starts. She ran well to be second two back in the mud, putting forth an effort that gives her a chance here. She regressed last time, but she was taken too far off the pace early in a race that was dominated on the front end with slow early fractions. She never had a chance to make up much ground and should rebound with a more aggressive ride here. She’s also run well over wet surfaces in the past. The other horse that I would use is Glass Ceiling, who ran very well two and three back before disappointing as the favorite last time. She also likes it wet and has the tactical speed to work out a fair trip.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 5,6,7
Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,7 with 2,4,5,6

RACE 6: CLENCH (#8)
Reed Kan was fairly disappointing last time out, fading to fifth as the 3-1 second choice after winning in his return from the layoff in January. A repeat of that effort two back would make him pretty tough to beat in this field, especially as he drops back down to that same $40k level. However, that’s a race out of which a few horses have returned to do poorly, calling into question the overall quality of that field. On the other hand, his loss last time isn’t as bad as it seems. He was aggressively ridden early, but got outrun to the lead by the speedy Happy Farm, compromising his chances. His true ability probably falls somewhere in between those two efforts. And he may have an advantage here, as the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario favoring the early leader. Square Shooter and Clench look like the two main rivals as they move up in class. Square Shooter defeated Clench when they met on Jan. 16 in the mud, and the former does appear to be in very strong form right now. However, he was a voided claim (by the vet) out of that race, and it’s taken him 6 weeks to get back to the races. My top pick is Clench, who returned since that Jan. 16 loss to win for $32k on Feb. 8. He was only beating three rivals that day, but he did so closing outside over a track that was starting to favor rail runners. He’s now been claimed by David Duggan, who is an excellent 5 for 18 (28%, $3.98 ROI) first off the claim on dirt over the past 5 years. Clench handles a wet track, and he has the tactical speed to be perched just off Reed Kan early.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 5,8 with 5,8 with 1,3,4,7

Picks & Plays for Saturday, February 27

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 6 - 1A - 2
Race 2:   2 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 3:   3 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 4:   3 - 9 - 1 - 7
Race 5:   5 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 6:   3 - 1 - 7 - 9
Race 7:   1 - 2 - 4 - 7
Race 8:   12 - 8 - 3 - 9
Race 9:   5 - 4 - 12 - 3

PLAYS

RACE 5: FORGOTTEN MISSION (#5)
There are many questions to be answered among those with experience in this race, starting with the two likely favorites. One Whirlwind Ride would be pretty difficult for this crew to beat if able to repeat the 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned last time when just missing at this level. While it might seem like that race came out of nowhere, do note that he was on his way to victory two back when he veered in greenly and lost his rider in the stretch. He was obviously a good claim for these connections, but he’ll be a much shorter price this time. Big Brown Shoes was the beaten favorite in that Jan. 21 race that One Whirlwind Ride also exits. This Charlton Baker trainee didn’t appear to have much of an excuse that day, as he faded after battling with today’s foe. He did run much better on a muddy track in his debut, and the surface figures to be wet on Saturday, so perhaps he can bounce back. Though, I am starting to wonder if that Nov. 12 maiden event wasn’t as strong as it initially seemed. I’m going in a different direction with the remaining horse out of that Jan. 21 affair, Forgotten Mission. His running line looks uninspiring, but he had a more eventful trip than it seems. He was off just a step slowly, tried to rush up on the backstretch, but found himself behind a wall of horses, racing greenly while reacting badly to kickback. He didn’t make much headway in the stretch, but he nevertheless stayed on well in a race where the top two finishers got some separation from the rest. I think this full-brother to solid allowance filly Forgotten Hero will run better in his second start. I would also consider some firsters, depending on tote action. One particularly intriguing runner is Olympique, who is a half-brother to New York-bred stakes winner Aunt Babe.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,6,8

RACE 7: SCHOKOLADE (#1)
The horse to beat is clearly the one horse with experience. Our Man Mike was thrown directly into stakes company at Finger Lakes following a decent Saratoga debut, and he acquitted himself well, picking up a pair of second-place finishes. He did get somewhat lucky to be second last time as the third-place finisher blew the start and might have won with a clean break. That said, he’s earned speed figures that make him the horse to beat. The only concern is the layoff in a race where a few firsters look like they could be live. The debut runner who looks most dangerous at first glance is Dr. Ardito. This $95k yearling purchase is by 9% debut sire Liam’s Map. The dam earned both of her victories in dirt sprints, and the only sibling to race is Navistar, best known for a runner-up finish to subsequent graded stakes winner Tenfold in a 3-year-old allowance. Chad Brown is 15-for-66 (23%, $1.57 ROI) with first time starters on dirt at Aqueduct over the past 5 years, suggesting that these horses get slightly overbet. He was working down at Palm Meadows into January before shipping to New York. That Feb. 13 drill was in company with older allowance type Golani Brigade, which is probably a good sign for this barn. I’m using him, but I prefer another Florida shipper. Schokolade is a $100k yearling purchase by 18% debut sire Bayern. The dam (30-6-5-7, $230k, 96 Beyer) was a stakes-winning sprinter who won on both dirt and turf. She’s produced a couple of stakes-placed runners, topped by Victory Is Sweet, runner-up in the 6F Chick Lang who also earned a 100 Beyer in his maiden win. Bill Mott is 12 for 50 (24%, $3.77 ROI) with 3-year-old and older first time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. Some of the workouts down at Payson Park look solid.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,7

RACE 8: VICAR’S LEGEND (#12)
For the first time in 3 years of making the morning lines at NYRA, I had to go up to 5-1 for a morning line favorite in this race – and I still have no idea how the public is going to bet this baffling 13-horse war. I guessed that Direct Order could be the slight favorite as he drops firs off the claim for Rob Atras. While he’s focused on one-mile races recently, he’s been proficient over 7 furlongs in the past. He’s simply been facing significantly better company in most of his recent starts. Furthermore, he loves a wet track and there’s rain in the forecast. I’m using him prominently, but I don’t want to settle for a relatively short price in a race as competitive as this. Win With Pride could also attract support, as he’s one of the few runners in this race exiting a victory. He’s back at the same $8k level at which he won last time, but this is certainly a tougher spot. If his form is heading in the right direction again, he’ll be a player here. Yet he’s hard to trust given all the poor efforts leading up to that last victory. I want to get a little more creative. My top pick is Vicar’s Legend. This horse obviously needs some help with the pace up front if he’s to be successful, and there isn’t much apparent speed in this field. Yet in a field this large, someone is bound to get aggressive. Vicar’s Legend has primarily been facing tougher company since he was claimed by Ray Handal in November. He was just overmatched against superior $25k claimers two and three back. He got into a more realistic spot last time, but he had the misfortune of catching a heavily biased track. The rail was a significant advantage, and he was forced to rally outside in the stretch. We already saw another wide trip runner from that race, Seethisquick, return to win, so I’m confident that Vicar’s Legend will have more to offer on a fair surface.

Win/Place: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 3,5,8,9,10,11

Picks & Plays for Friday, February 26

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 2:   2 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 3:   4 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 4:   2 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 5:   7 - 1 - 8 - 4
Race 6:   7 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 7:   9 - 8 - 2 - 1
Race 8:   2 - 1A - 8 - 7

PLAYS

RACE 1: FLIRTACIOUS KISS (#3)
There’s little reliable form to analyze in this Aqueduct opener, so the public will probably gravitate towards lightly raced runners like The Glenmore or Bewps. Of that pair of second time starters, I prefer The Glenmore, who exits a decent race at this level. She was never a threat to winner Shaker Shack, but she stayed on well until the late stages while staying near the rail throughout. She has enough pedigree to suggest that added distance shouldn’t be an issue. I trust her more than Bewps, who didn’t show much ability or take any money when she debuted against maiden special weight company. The Asmussen barn has poor statistics with dropdowns of this type. The obvious alternative with route experience is Flower’s Fortune, but she’s hard to trust after fading badly in two consecutive starts. She’d be formidable if able to recapture the form she displayed on Nov. 22, but she may have gone the wrong way since then. I want to get a little more creative with longshot Flirtacious Kiss. She’s a player in this race based on her race two back when she finished fourth in a fast race for the level, earning a competitive 72 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The obvious problem is that none of her surrounding performances are as strong. Yet I can make some excuses, as one of those was in the mud, and last time she was wide against a strong rail bias, basically eased in the late stages. The stretch-out in distance is a question mark, but she goes out for an underrated trainer who is having a strong meet.

Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,6

RACE 3: DARK STORM (#4)
This is a fascinating open claiming event for just a 6-horse field. First Line seems a little tough to like, but you can make a valid case for the other 5 runners in this lineup. The venerable 7-year-old Twisted Tom may no longer be the horse he once was, but he’s nevertheless maintained solid form into his latter years, carving out a niche for himself as a consistent performer at the NY-bred $40k/N2X condition. He’s now moving up in class slightly, but has been facing some strong fields in recent starts. However, it should be noted that he may not have run as well as it seems last time, as he benefited from a strong rail bias. That said, he has prior recent efforts that make him a major player, and he’s a specialist at this 9-furlong distance. Grumps Little Tots returns from a freshening since being claimed back by Rob Atras, who previously had him last summer. Atras got some solid performances out of this guy, especially considering the fact that he was taking the horse over from Jason Servis. He appeared to be back in top form last August when finishing a close third at this level with a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. While he regressed for new connections after that, the fact that he’s back with Dubb and Atras now has to be considered a good sign. I’m using him, but I’m more interested in a bigger price. Dark Storm got the job done last time out for a $16k claiming tag, which is a far cry from today's $50k level. That said, he was meeting a slew of dropdowns in that heat, a few of which have already returned to perform well (Supreme Aura lost a $32k claimer by a nose with a 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure). While he’s achieved his best speed figures going a bit shorter, he did run well in his two starts going this 1 1/8 miles distance as a three-year-old. Furthermore, he possesses some of the best tactical speed in a relatively paceless race, so he could work out the right trip.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 4 with 1,5 with 1,3,5,6

RACE 4: RUVIES IN TIME (#2)
The two major players in this race, Ruvies in Time and Miss Jimmy, faced off last time in a similar race at this level on Jan. 31. Miss Jimmy finished just ahead of her rival that day, as both were defeated by the late-running Elegant Zip. Yet Jan. 31 was a day that featured a dead rail that appeared to compromise horses racing anywhere near the inside path. That hindered both Miss Jimmy and Ruvies in Time, as each of them raced in the rail path until the quarter pole. Given that track profile, we saw many winners close down the center of the track on that Jan. 31 card. That’s why I’m especially confident that Ruvies In Time will rebound with a better effort on this occasion. Not only was she on the rail early, but she spurted away and was battling back all the way down to the wire while racing on the rail, even as Miss Jimmy attempted to rally outside of her in the lane. Ruvies in Time has been in excellent form since fall for Rick Schosberg, having turned the corner ever since that confidence-building win against $12.5k claimers last October. She rode a bias to victory on Dec. 19, but she proved that the performance was no fluke last time when running nearly as well in defeat. This time she figures to be the controlling speed from the inside, which has been an advantage in recent weeks at Aqueduct. I strongly prefer this pair of mares to the 4-year-old Impazible Donna. While she is coming off a victory at the N1X level, she was facing slightly weaker company in that race and hasn't yet faced the level of competition that she encounters here.

Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 3,4
Trifecta: 2 with 3 with 4,5,6

RACE 7: OK HONEY (#9)
Mabel Island is the horse to beat as she makes her second start at Aqueduct after achieving all of her prior victories at Parx. She basically transferred her form to the new circuit last time, but just got run down in the late stages after setting an honest pace. She’s probably the horse you want most out of that Feb. 6 affair and the stretch-out in distance doesn’t figure to hinder her. However, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace again, as there is other speed signed on here. I’m using her, but there are others to consider coming out of different races. I’m Fine has been in strong form since turning back on dirt for Jeremiah Englehart. I’m not overly concerned about her returning to a mile here, since she’s staying around one turn. However, she does need a total pace meltdown to be successful. I want to go in a different direction with a horse that I’ve been chasing recently. Ok Honey ran very well on Dec. 19 when she closed for fourth while racing 4-wide on a day when the rail was the place to be. That’s proven to be a strong race as all of the horses who finished ahead of her have since come back to run well in similar spots. Unlike those mares, Ok Honey regressed out of that effort, but she has had excuses. She was on a potentially bad rail on Dec. 31, and then last time she was compromised by a slow pace. I’m very intrigued by this claim. She basically ran twice a month for her prior connections with mixed results and now Greg DiPrima, who does a good job, has given her a brief freshening. If the pace heats up, I think she can get into the mix with one of her good efforts.

Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,3,8

Picks & Plays for Thursday, February 25

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 2:   1 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 3:   1 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 4:   4 - 7 - 2 - 6
Race 5:   8 - 9 - 1 - 2
Race 6:   3 - 1A - 6 - 4
Race 7:   4 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 8:   2 - 9 - 3 - 5

PLAYS

RACE 5: SUZ (#8)
Lem Me Have It figures to go favored as she drops in class off the layoff. The Rudy Rodriguez barn is in the midst of a strong run (8 for 27, 30%, $2.94 ROI over the past two weeks), but I’m somewhat skeptical of this mare at a short price. They’re basically giving her away for $12,500 considering that she was claimed for $35k and disappointed in two starts for this barn last October. She’d fit very nicely in some starter allowance races, but the connections have instead opted for this cheap claimer. I’ll use her defensively, but I prefer others. Cover Photo may also attract support despite going out for low-profile connections, and she may beat this field if she repeats her last effort. However, it must be noted that Jan. 31 was a day when the rail was dead and she benefited from closing outside into a pace that fell apart. She still ran a speed figure that makes her a strong contender here, but she’s unlikely to get quite as favorable a setup this time. Another horse who could take some money is Movie Score, who earned a strong 95 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her blowout victory at a cheaper level on Feb. 8. Yet, this time, she was helped by a strong rail bias, as the inside path seemed to be a significant advantage by the end of the day on that card. I doubt she can achieve a similar result over a fair surface. I’m instead interested in a horse who was compromised by a bias. Suz finished some 19 lengths behind Cover Photo last time, but she got the wrong trip over that Jan. 31 track featuring the dead rail. She was ridden hard to make the front over another speedy rival, but in doing so found herself right down in that inside path. Like so many who wandered down inside, she was totally empty by the time the field got to the quarter pole. She’s better than that based on her prior efforts, and I think she might be able to wake up in her second start for Karl Broberg. She gets a positive rider switch to Luis Cardenas and finds herself in a race where the Pace Projector is predicting a scenario favoring the early leader.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,7,9

RACE 6: BLU GROTTO (#3)
Even after the scratch of entrymate American Gentleman, Chambo could still attract support as the remaining half of this pair. He finished some 7 lengths behind his stablemate, but he has a right to step forward in his second career start. He stayed on decently while glued to the rail all the way, and could show more speed this time with the addition of blinkers. He makes some sense, but I prefer their main rival Blu Grotto. This colt has never raced at a distance shorter than a mile despite the fact that he’s bred to spring. His dam Ever Always was an exceptionally fast dirt sprinter during her brief racing career, and she’s produced a full-sibling to this colt, Auldwood Lane, who is a stakes-placed turf sprinter. Blu Groto was no match for next-out winner Bourbonic at a slightly tougher level two back. While he was defeated by a similar margin last time, I thought he ran pretty well in that Jan. 28 affair. He set a strong early pace before fading in the last eighth. Runner-up Sono Grato returned from that race to finish second against maiden special weight company, improving his TimeformUS Speed Figure 11 points. I think this colt’s form is stronger than it appears, and I’m confident he’ll handle the turnback in distance. Underneath, I would also use Epona Rising, who was very green in his debut and has a right to step forward on the class drop.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,6
Trifecta: 3 with 1,6 with 1,4,6,7

RACE 7: BLINDWILLIE MCTELL (#4)
Dark Money and Steam Engine may both attract support as they move up in class out of $25k state-bred claiming company. Steam Engine defeated Dark Money when they met on Jan. 21, taking advantage of his superior early speed in a race where both worked out good trips. Dark Money since registered a blowout win at the same level on Feb. 13, but he was beating a weak field and benefited from a strong rail bias. These horses are both contenders here and have back races to support their strong recent form. But they do have to deal with each other on the front end while facing some classier rivals. I want to lean in a different direction. I could make a case for Seven Lillies, who tries to win this condition again after drawing off by 4 lengths in a similar spot on Jan. 30. He rebounded from a poor effort in the mud, essentially validating his strong performance for Rob Atras back on Dec. 19. If he maintains his current form, he’s a major player. Yet he does require some pace to set up his late run. I prefer class dropper Blindwillie McTell. Some will claim that he’s been badly off form, but the reality is that he’s run decent races but has just struggled with consistency against tougher company. He hasn’t faced New York-breds since the 2019 Albany, and he’s met some good horses at the open N1X allowance level, including stakes winners Yaupon and Our Last Buck. He wanted no part of a mile last time, and now he’s getting the class relief he needs and turning back to a more appropriate distance. If he’s going to rebound, this is the right spot.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5,6
Trifecta: 4 with 5,6 with ALL

RACE 8: BOO WHO (#2)
This maiden claiming finale looks totally wide open, and I’m not particularly thrilled with those who figure to take money. Horses like In the Zone and Beatthatflew could attract some support after hitting the board at this level on Jan. 8. They each found themselves in a tougher spot last time behind the runaway winner Writer’s Regret and were well beaten, but nevertheless earned respectable speed figures in a race that came up very fast. I’m a little skeptical than those numbers from Jan. 28 will be predictive moving forward, so I’m looking elsewhere for value. Firster Majestic Sky makes some sense. While he sold for $100k as a yearling, he clearly was bought back by his breeder at some point, so it might not be as much of a negative as it seems that he’s debuting for a $25k tag. Yet I find some others more intriguing. The horse that you should want most out of that Jan. 8 affair is Cape Cod Gem, since he was setting a fast pace that fell apart and may have had some trouble in the stretch. He figures to be a square price, as should my top pick Boo Who. This Gary Sciacca trainee didn’t have a major excuse in his debut, but he was facing a better field at the $40k maiden claiming level. Also-rans like What’s My Category, Writer’s Regret, and Scotto have all returned from that race to do better in subsequent starts. He’s getting some subtle class relief for his second start and shows a fast workout in the interim. He feels like one that could get overlooked here and has as much right as anyone to step forward.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Box: 2,3,9

Picks & Plays for Sunday, February 21

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 2:   2 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 3:   8 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 4:   7 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 5:   4 - 6 - 1 - 2
Race 6:   2 - 1 - 5 - 7
Race 7:   5 - 4 - 1A - 9
Race 8:   4 - 7 - 2 - 3
Race 9:   10 - 3 - 7 - 5

PLAYS

RACE 2: MARKET ALERT (#2)
Storm Shooter will be tough for this field to handle if he repeats his last effort, in which he finished second in the Rego Park Stakes, earning a career-best 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He was no match for stablemate Perfect Munnings, but he held well after setting the pace. While it might seem like that number came out of nowhere, do note that he didn’t get a comfortable trip in the Notebook two back, as he was shuffled back on the far turn. He possesses superior early speed and is drawn well outside of main pace rival The King Cheek. However, he faces a worthy rival and is likely to be a shorter price than his form really merits. I prefer likely second choice Market Alert. He showed promise in his career debut, coming from off the pace to win in a professional score. He initially had trouble finding his footing against stakes company, but he seemed to figure it out last time. He was part of a contested pace in that $250k stakes, yet he put away the other speeds (including today’s rival The King Cheek) before just getting run down in the last sixteenth. That game performance resulted in an excellent 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure, boosted due to the quick early fractions. Now he’s getting class relief as he drops into this thinner optional claiming event. Plus, he doesn’t have to be ridden so aggressively, which should allow Vargas to work out a perfect stalking trip. I’d also use Horn of Plenty underneath, as he was against a rail bias in the Gander last week, but it’s somewhat troubling that he hasn’t stepped forward since his debut.

Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 3,4

RACE 4: BLOOD MOON (#7)
No Lime is the horse to beat in this competitive N3L claimer in his second start off the claim for Linda Rice. He won his first start for his barn last time, defeating a weaker field following an unorthodox trip. He was steered very wide immediately after the start, then darted to the rail to save ground, was briefly held up in traffic, but found room along the inside late. In the end, things worked out for him, so I wouldn’t necessarily upgrade that performance. Yet he might not have to step forward much to beat this field even as he moves up in class. I prefer him to other horses who could take money, like Icy Dude and Mine the Coin. I’m interested in some other alternatives. Vitesse is somewhat interesting off his trip last time. He veered out badly at the start into another horse, knocking them both off stride. He was far back after that incident and merely passed tired rivals late while only under light pressure. He did win two back, but the form of that race has not held up very well, so there’s some doubt about his overall quality. I’m instead opting for a class dropper. Blood Moon has been banging his head against the wall facing much tougher company in his recent starts. He actually ran reasonably well going this distance back on Nov. 7, but since then he’s struggled to make an impact. However, his last effort wasn’t as bad as it seems, since he was compromised by a slow pace and still ran a competitive 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure. I’m not at all concerned about the drop in class down to $14k because these connections claimed him for a similar price and just got too ambitious.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,6

RACE 6: CAUSE TO DREAM (#2)
Likely favorite Maracuja was understandably bet down to 4-5 last time in a race that appeared to be particularly weak for this level. However, she never looked to be traveling that well and had no punch in the stretch. She’s a little hard to like here off that effort, but it has to be noted that she ran so much better in her career debut. She was very green in the early going of that Dec. 20 debut and was running strongly down the center of the track late on a day when you were better off racing inside. If she could build upon that effort, she’ll be tough for this field to handle. Though, she figures to be a short price and there’s not much pace to close into once again. I prefer runners to the inside. Becca’s Wish was away from the gate very awkwardly in her debut, lunging at the start before rushing up into fourth on the backstretch. She never really made an impact thereafter, but nevertheless earned a solid speed figure in what turned out to be a fast race. However, runbacks from that event have been a mixed bag. The top two finishers returned to do very poorly, though third-place finisher Mo Desserts won her next start by 15 lengths. Jeremiah Englehart is 15 for 75 (20%, $2.38 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. My top pick is Cause to Dream. This filly didn’t look fully prepared for that debut, as she showed brief speed before fading badly. It was a completely different story last time, as she took a big step forward. While she faded to finish fourth beaten 7 lengths, that effort was a lot stronger than the result indicates. Jan. 31 was a day when the rail was dead, and this filly was inside throughout and driven down to that rail path in the lane. The fact that she was able to achieve an 85 TimeformUS Speed Figure given that trip is fairly remarkable. She certainly ran better than today’s rival Despeight All Odds. Some may hesitate due to the low-profile human connections, but this filly can run.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,7
Trifecta: 2 with 1,5 with 1,5,6,7

RACE 7: PERCEIVED (#5)
Advance Notice has lost all 5 of his attempts at this level since breaking his maiden, but most of those have been good efforts. He’s displayed remarkable versatility since breaking his maiden, showing proficiency over distances ranging from 6.5 to 9 furlongs. This one-turn mile should hit him right between the eyes, and indeed, he seemed to run well going this trip last time. He as no match for an impressive turn of foot from Doubly Blessed, but he nevertheless stayed on well for second. Now lands in a spot that doesn’t feature that much early speed, so he should get a great trip on or just off the early lead. He’s the horse to beat, but I prefer a runner who finished just behind him last time. You could have claimed Perceived for $40k out of his win on Jan. 2, but his new connections waited and paid $140k following that victory at the Paul Pompa dispersal sale. He failed to return dividends on that investment last time, as he disappointed as the favorite behind Advance Notice. He just looked a little dull every step of the way, unable to produce the turn of foot he displayed for Chad Brown two back. However, he was attempting to close into a slow pace in a race dominated up front. He obviously has better races in his form that could beat this field. And it’s been unwise to go against the duo of Linda Rice and Eric Cancel lately. Over the past 30 days, that team is 10 for 22 (45%, $2.86 ROI). He’s my top pick, but this race is also open to some others. Tiergan makes his first start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez, who is especially dangerous in these situations. And Dust Devil was impressive beating claimers last time, as he gets a class test here. Yet both of those would need some pace up front, and that may not develop.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,9

RACE 8: MALIBU STAR (#4)
Family Biz seems like the horse to beat despite moving back up in class. He appeared to be back in top form off the claim for Linda Rice last time as he closed from far back to get up to win a very strong race for the level. Notably, runner-up Limonite returned to win his next start with a 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Family Biz’s overall form has been a little inconsistent, but he’s clearly this good when he’s at his best. Furthermore, he projects to get the right trip in a race where the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. I’m not against him, but I do think there are some others to consider. Among those who figure to contest the pace, I’m most interested in Daddy Knows. Like the favorite, he’s moving up in class out of a claiming event – and an even cheaper one at that – but he put in an exceptional effort to win that race. Daddy Knows contested a fast pace going this distance and turned back multiple challenges to hold off the closers late, earning a win that was much better than the half-length margin would indicate. The 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned was actually a slight step back from the 118 he achieved in his prior start, suggesting that he’s ready for this class hike. I’m using both of these runners prominently, but the runner that I find most intriguing is Malibu Star. This well-bred colt looked like a future stakes winner when he broke his maiden here in December, earning a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure to defeat his stablemate. For whatever it’s worth, he was privately sold following that start, as was runner-up Citizen West (who returned to bomb at the Fair Grounds). Malibu Star was understandably bet down to 9-5 for his first start against winners last time, but he was uncharacteristically dull, never getting involved before getting eased in the stretch. Clearly something went awry, but at leas he’s now coming back in jus 4 weeks, suggesting that whatever issue plagued him may have been sorted out. He also sports an impressive 58 3/5 bullet workout last week, the fastest of the morning at that distance by over 3 seconds. I expect him to rebound, but there are some lingering questions about his form.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3,7
Trifecta: 4 with 2,7 with 1,2,3,7,8

Picks & Plays for Saturday, February 20

by David Aragona

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PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 2:   6 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 3:   5 - 2 - 6 - 4
Race 4:   6 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 5:   7 - 6 - 1A - 5
Race 6:   7 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 7:   8 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 8:   5 - 2 - 3 - 8
Race 9:   3 - 6 - 5 - 2

PLAYS

RACE 5: LEMON DROP ROAD (#7)
The touted $1 million yearling purchase Will E Sutton was quite the disappointment in his debut here just 12 days ago. He was a little lukewarm on the tote board, going off as the narrow second choice, and he ran like a colt that needed a start. He was fairly professional through the early stages of the race, but hung on his left lead for too long in upper stretch, just never really accelerating at any point. Stretching out to a mile should help this son of Curlin, but he’s going to have to improve and do so quickly if he’s to break through here. Jonathan Thomas is 4 for 19 (21%, $2.30 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt routes over 5 years. I’m using him, but I prefer the other second time starter Lemon Drop Road. There was plenty to like about this ridgling’s debut. He didn't take much money, going off at almost 9-1, suggesting that he wasn’t cranked to win that day. He actually broke with the field and briefly was chasing the leaders before greenly dropping back under a heavy drive on the backstretch. He continued to travel greenly on the turn, but seemed to finally get on track late, finishing well down the center of the course. His pedigree indicates that he should handle anything from sprints up to a mile. Furthermore, Jimmy Jerkens is 5 for 23 (22%, $5.34 ROI) with maiden second time starters going from sprints to dirt routes over the past 5 years. I could also use a horse like Exalted Charm, who faced better at Gulfstream in his debut, and firster I Am the Law, a grandson of the undefeated Pepper’s Pride. But I prefer the outside runner.

Win: 7
Exacta: 7 with 1,5,6

RACE 6: HEIRLOOM KITTEN (#7)
Supreme Aura figures to go favored here even after his entrymate Its All Relevant comes out, as that one will race on Sunday instead. He’s moving up in class after finishing second in his return from the layoff last time. While that was just a $16k claiming event, it was one that featured many dropdowns, so it was a bit tougher than most races at that level. This horse earned a respectable 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and he has a right to take a step forward as he switches into the barn of Rudy Rodriguez, who has excellent statistics first off the claim in dirt routes. I also wouldn’t so readily dismiss the horse who finished right behind him last time. Runabout stayed on well for fourth in that spot and may get somewhat ignored here as he goes first off the claim for Amira Chichackly. However, I’m veering in a different direction for my top pick. Heirloom Kitten was simply in over his head against tougher N1X allowance foes in most of his starts at that level. He was never going to land a serious blow against horses like Forza Di Oro and Our Last Buck in his starts at the end of 2020. He dropped in for a $25k tag last time and ran well to win, coming from just off the pace to get up for the victory over a speed-favoring track. He’s now been claimed by David Duggan, who is a solid 4 for 21 (19%, $3.10 ROI) first off the claim over the past 5 years. He’s moving up in class, but his speed figures indicate that he’s a strong fit here, and he should work out a favorable stalking trip.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 7 with 1,2 with 1,2,3,5

RACE 8: SHANES PRETTY LADY (#5)
While this Maddie May is a New York-bred stakes event, the race is not short on expensive fillies and regal pedigrees. (Oddly enough, Shanes Pretty Lady is the only horse among this crew who is by a stallion standing in New York.) Brattle House could go favored here as she makes the second start of her career. This $775k daughter of Malibu Moon absolutely towered over her foes in her November debut. She is an imposing physical presence, and she just dominated that race on the front end. However, the speed figure wasn’t particularly fast and the waters get much deeper for this second start of her career. She also has to contend with a layoff, as she spent the last few months training in Florida. I’m using her, but I’m reticent to lean on her at a short price. Furthermore, the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, with stretching-out sprinters Irish Constitution and Secret Love likely to show speed inside of her. I want to go with horses who are proven at route distances. One of those is Frost Me, who comes off a solid allowance victory at this trip. She’s versatile enough to stalk the pace and seems to be improving with each start. Yet I’m most intrigued by the horse who finished just behind her last time. Shanes Pretty Lady was hindered by a tepid early pace when she lost to Frost Me, and then she was badly compromised by her trip last time on Jan. 31. That was a day when the rail was utterly dead at Aqueduct, as horse after horse who wandered down to the inside met their doomed fate. Shanes Pretty lady, to her credit, actually finished better than most racing on the rail, as she closed for third, albeit flattening out late. I think she’s better than her recent form indicates, and it would appear that added distance is helping this daughter of Bellamy Road. As long as some pace develops up front, I expect her to come charging late at a square price.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,7,8
Trifecta: 5 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,7,8

RACE 9: OUCH OUCH OUCH (#3)
Warfront Fighter may finally get the job done in start number 13, but he’s had his chances at this level. He does appear to be in the best form of his career right now, and he has a slight edge over this field if others fail to step forward. Yet he’s gotten pretty good trips in his recent starts and he’s just not the most appealing option at what figures to be a short price. The two alternatives that seem most interesting exit the same race. Both Kith and Ouch Ouch Ouch competed in a tougher $40k maiden claiming event on Jan. 31. Kith finished some 13 lengths ahead of his rival that day after racing somewhat greenly. This son of Uncle Mo has run reasonably well on dirt before and seems like a viable alternative to the favorite. Yet I’m willing to give Ouch Ouch Ouch a pass for his poor performance last time. As mentioned above, Jan. 31 was a day that featured a dead rail, and this gelding was right down in that inside path for the duration of his trip. Given how much better he fared in his only prior start, I’m willing to believe that the bias was a legitimate excuse last time. If he can bounce back with a better effort, I think he has a reasonable chance to upset the favorite.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,6

Picks & Plays for Friday, February 19

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 6 - 1
Race 2:   3 - 1A - 2 - 7
Race 3:   5 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 4:   7 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 5:   3 - 7 - 4 - 5
Race 6:   7 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 7:   4 - 7 - 2 - 8
Race 8:   7 - 3 - 8 - 2

PLAYS

RACE 2: WICKED TITLE (#3)
Lottie’s Mizzion is the horse to beat as she moves up in class following a fairly easy victory at the N2L claiming level last time out. This filly had shown some promise when she broke her maiden last fall and was hardly disgraced despite getting beaten a long way by subsequent G3 Go For Wand winner Sharp Starr in a New York-bred allowance event. While the drop in class last time was fairly drastic, this is where she belongs. She got to stalk a moderate pace last time before taking over, and she figures to encounter yet another favorable setup here. The TimeformUS Pace Projecotor is predicting that she could be on the lead in a scenario favoring the front-runner. As long as she holds her form off the claim for Charlton Baker, she’ll be tough to beat. Yet I want to take a shot against her with her main rival Wicked Title. This filly already has experience at this $14k N3L level where she’s run well. She was a little unlucky to lose her first try for this condition on Nov. 12 when she made a strong late rally to just miss after going wide on the turn. She didn’t get a particularly comfortable trip two back, but she rebounded nicely last time. She was hindered by an awkward start in that Jan. 15 race, and was further compromised by trying to close over a racetrack that was favoring speed due to windy conditions. All things considered, she did well to get up for second in a race that featured a slow pace and she likely would have won if given a fair trip. I’m not overly concerned about the stretch-out to a mile, and she has more tactical speed than she’s displayed in recent starts.

Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 1,2,7
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3 with 2,4,7

RACE 4: HALF DAY PAM (#7)
Likely favorite Tellaperfecttale didn’t take much tote action in her debut, but her effort was fairly encouraging. She traveled well on the rail, overcame a bit of traffic at the quarter pole, and rallied decently for third. That performance did come for a different barn, and Bruce Levine does not have strong numbers off trainer switches. That said, although Luis Cardenas did nothing wrong last time, it certainly doesn’t hurt to pick up Kendrick Carmouche. She merely has to repeat that 77 TimeformUS Speed Figure and she’ll be tough for this field to handle. That number looks totally legitimate, as both the second and fourth place finishers from that race returned to win with solid figures. Her main rivals are also second time starters. One who figures to attract some support is Doyouknowwhoiam. This filly put in a gritty effort against open company in her debut at Saratoga last year, showing good speed from her rail draw before just getting nailed at the wire. In retrospect, that wasn’t the strongest field, but she certainly has a right to improve with maturity. Linda Rice is an excellent 27 for 78 (35%, $2.67 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years. I’m using her, but my top pick is Half Day Pam, who is the second time starter who figures to be the best price. She took a little money in her debut into the face of odds-on favorite Bustinmygroove. She was a little slow into stride early, drafted in behind horses on the turn while taking kickback, and just stayed on mildly through the lane. It wasn’t a terrible effort, and that race has proven to be a strong one for the level. Runner-up Bustinmygroove returned to win, and third-place Dramatic Twist also won next time out against maiden special weight foes while improving her TimeformUS Speed Figure by 7 points.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,5

RACE 5: SARATOGA BEAUTY (#3)
It will be interesting to see if the public is willing to give Blitchton Lady a second chance after she disappointed as the 4-5 favorite last time. While she was competing at a higher level that day, she was beaten soundly by today’s rival Buyer’s Remorse, unable to parlay a perfect trip into victory. She was running back on relatively short rest on that occasion, and now Mertkan Kantarmaci has given her a bit more time. Yet she’s still hard to trust even as she drops in class. I’m most interested in the fillies exiting the Jan. 24 race at this level won by Cadeau de Paix. Stunning Munnings achieved the best result that day, checking in third, but she got a great trip, stalking the pace along the rail. I prefer those who finished behind her. Left Leaning Lucy was prevented from putting forth a true effort due to trouble at the start, as she was shuffled back to last a few strides out of the gate. Closing into the fast pace allowed her to pass a few rivals late, but she’s generally more effective racing near the early lead. I’m using her, but my top pick is Saratoga Beauty. She, too, was bumped after the start and then didn’t seem totally comfortable rating in behind horses while taking kickback. She refused to settle for Eric Cancel, traveling keenly into the turn. She eventually worked her way into the clear for the stretch drive, but wasn’t able to kick on. It was nevertheless a solid return to the NYRA circuit, building on her decent Laurel form against cheaper company. I think this filly has subtly improved, and now she makes her first start for a very underrated trainer. Over the past 18 months at Aqueduct, Ralph D’Alessandro is 9 for 25 (36%, $5.76 ROI) with horses that get sent off at odds of 10-1 or less. If this filly can settle better in the early going of this race, I believe she’ll produce a more effective finish.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,7

RACE 6: GUN HILL GIRL (#7)
I suppose Timed Out could go favored again despite losing as the 1-2 choice last time in her first start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. The first inclination may be to give her a pass for that performance, as she still finished second at this same level. However, she was facing an unusually weak field last time and is undoubtedly stepping up class here to meet a far deeper cast of characters. She could get the right pace setup and perhaps turning back to 6 furlongs will be to her benefit. Yet I have some doubts about the quality of the field she beat at Monmouth two back, and want to look elsewhere. I’m most intrigued by last-out maiden winners. Shaker Shack and Shesadirtydancer both won races at the $40k maiden claiming level, earning similar speed figures. The former arguably has more upside in just her third career start, having won that race off a layoff. But Shesadirtydancer may just be improving at the right time, as horses who finished behind her have generally come back to do well. I’m using both of them, but my top pick is a filly who won for a cheaper tag. Gun Hill Girl was facing a weak field last time, but she won that race far more impressively than the 1 1/2 length margin of victory would suggest. Though it’s not noted in the chart comments, she broke slowly last time and was turned sideways coming out of the gate, spotting the field multiple lengths. That was especially detrimental for a filly who had shown speed in her only prior start. Most inexperienced horses would just give up at that point, but she launched a wide, seemingly premature rally on the far turn to take the lead at the quarter pole. She got a little leg weary late, but she had a right to tire given that trip. I think she’s capable of better and she should be able to run faster given a clean start.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,4,5