TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

The entry of Costa Terra (#1) and Alternate Reality (#1A) looks pretty formidable at first glance, since they finished first and second in a race at this level last time and now race as a pair for wagering purposes. However, they are a pair whose form is relatively exposed, with Alternate Reality having gotten back to better form for his prior connections and Costa Terra rebounding slightly off the claim for Brad Cox. Neither one ran some remarkable race last time, and this feels like a deeper spot. Tabegauche (#5) is an intriguing candidate to turn the tables on those two as he makes his first start off the claim for Ilkay Kantmarci. He didn't seem comfortable racing inside of rivals when he got swarmed at the quarter pole last time, but he did battle back in the late stages. His early speed figures to play well here, perched outside of the often fainthearted Smile Mon. My top pick is Just Call Ray (#4), who returns to this level after finishing second gong 9 furlongs for this price tag two back. That was probably a little too far for him, and he caught a very sharp rival in Bold Endeavor that day. He came back against a pretty tough field at Colonial last time and raced a bit too freely on the front end before getting reeled in late. He's better from a stalking position, and he figures to get his preferred trip here. He's run plenty of races that make him good enough to beat this group, and the price should be fair.

Fair Value:
#4 JUST CALL RAY, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 2

I don't quite trust any of the favorites in this $25k state-bred claimer. Amundson (#3) is perhaps the best option among those even though he's lost his last three starts at relatively short prices. He's returned in decent form now as a 9-year-old, and caught a pretty strong rival who was dropping significantly in class last time. He had only been in the Ilkay Kantarmaci barn for a few days prior to making that start, and may not benefit from more time with a trainer who has been having plenty of recent success. Forward Move (#5) beat him when they met on March 14, but this Linda Rice trainee can be very trip dependent. He got a perfect setup last time and still just barely held on. Montebello (#4) possesses dangerous early speed, but I didn't like that he had to work so hard to earn the victory against an inferior field in his last start. I wonder if he's starting to tail off after running some nice races earlier in the winter. He was also beaten by Horse Be With You (#6) when they met two back on March 9 without apparent excuse. Horse Be With You is in intriguing upset candidate in this spot. I'm not totally convinced that he wants to go quite this short, as he's run his best races at route distances. Yet he did sprint effectively early in his career, and he should have an easier time attaining forward position from this outside draw. He's drawn the rail in each of his last 4 starts, and he clearly does not prefer racing inside of horses. I'm expecting him to bounce back at a decent price.

Fair Value:
#6 HORSE BE WITH YOU, at 5-1 or greater

RACE 5

I'm not keen to take a short price on Margaux Treasure (#4), who looks fairly obvious as she moves back into New York-bred company. She ran fine in a couple of dirt races against tougher competition last year, but I can't say that I was thrilled with either of her efforts over the winter at Gulfstream, albeit on a different surface. She doesn't possess much early speed, but is dropping down to the right level. Moontown (#9) is the other logical dropdown to consider, but she really didn't show much in her debut back in February. Linda Rice once did better with this move, but she is 0 for 11 with maiden second time starters going from maiden special weights to maiden claimers over the last 5 years. Khali's Storm (#8) seems like a candidate to fare a bit better in this spot as she cuts back in distance. A mile has always been a stretch for this filly, but she fought on bravely for third despite getting tired in her last start. She ran some races a year ago that suggested she should be good enough to beat a field at this level, and she may be ready to take a step forward at her best distance. My top pick is Eleni (#3), who tried this level for the first time when dropping in class in her last start. She settled for second as the favorite behind longshot winner Royal Event, which some might hold against her. Yet that rival came back to win again with a faster speed figure at another big price. Eleni had held her own against maiden special weight foes in some prior starts, and now gets Lasix for the first time. She possesses dangerous speed in a race where you probably want to be forward, and is coming off a bullet work.

Fair Value:
#3 ELENI, at 5-1 or greater
#8 KHALI'S STORM, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 6

If it stays on turf, this Woodhaven shapes up as a highly competitive affair where you can make a case for all 7 runners. Given the confusing nature of this race, I could see some handicappers just defaulting to connections with Septarian (#1). Yet there is more to like about this gelding than him being trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Flavien Prat. He's shown ability on dirt, and really didn't run that badly against a tough field when stretched out in the Risen Star last time. While Protonico isn't a noteworthy turf influence, the dam's family is all European turf breeding. His dam is actually a half-sister to a winner of the Group 1 Prix du Cadran over 2 1/2 miles on grass in France. Chad Brown worked him on turf twice at Payson Park to give him confidence to enter here. End of Romance (#2) has some things to prove at this level, but he did show some promise racing in England last year. His stateside debut was decent, even though he lacked late punch after making an initial move. Now he gets back on turf, a surface he's definitely bred for as a half-brother to $27 million-earning globetrotter Romantic Warrior. My top pick is Sounds Like a Plan (#7), who figures to go back to the frontrunning tactics that worked for him in his turf debut. He set an honest pace that day and never gave anyone else a chance, earning a strong 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He stepped up against open company in a similar spot to this when he tried the Central Park late last year, and I thought he ran better than the result suggests. He stalked inside and took a bump when attempting to angle out at the quarter pole, which kept him inside for the stretch drive. The race was dominated by outside closers, so he did well to stay on for fourth at the rail. He has to be ready off the layoff, but the price should compensate.

Fair Value:
#7 SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 7

It's pretty obvious that Long Legged Queen (#1) will beat this field if she is able to run back to her best turf efforts from last year. She finished second to the talented Beautiful Thief at Saratoga and then just missed in a very fast race in October. The problem is that she was inexplicably dull when she lost as the odds-on favorite after that. I'll be more forgiving of her two dirt efforts since then, but the jury is still out regarding her current form. She's going to take plenty of money with Flavien Prat aboard, and I'm not quite sold. The most interesting alternatives to the favorite are those switching surfaces. St. Addie (#11) has plenty of turf pedigree, being out of a dam who was a multiple stakes winner on grass and an 11-time winner on the surface. She showed some ability in her debut before wanting no part of a mile last time. She adds blinkers and may be getting on the right footing. My top pick is Vino Samara (#7), who is also switching from dirt to turf, though she did get a start over grass as a 2-year-old. That was in her career debut going longer, and she showed good early speed into an honest pace before fading. I'm not surprised that she failed to finish that day, since her dam's side pedigree suggests shorter is better. Her dam was a confirmed turf sprinter, and this filly looks more like that type than she does her stamina-oriented sire. She did improve when cut back to 6 furlongs on dirt last time, showing excellent early speed before fading. Now she's coming back to this surface off a few improved workouts, and the price should be generous.

Fair Value:
#7 VINO SAMARA, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 9

Perhaps Firsttimeinforever (#11) will finally get back to the winner's circle for the first time in what feels like forever. However, you're going to have to swallow yet another short price on a mare who has burned plenty of money since coming to New York. In fairness to her, she didn't get particularly good trips in a couple of those losses last year, receiving two of the worst rides Flavien Prat might have given in all of 2024. She got completely stopped in traffic when she might have won in May, and then was never put in position to strike when again getting unlucky in her final start before the layoff. He gets back aboard here, but I don't love that she has been away for so long and drew such a difficult post position in her return. Graham Motion sends out a couple of alternatives who could attract support. Summer Whirl (#9) got a tough trip when last seen in October, going very wide and losing momentum on the far turn before staying on late. However, this is likely a tougher allowance field than that. Spool (#12) has plenty of upside in her 3-year-old debut after beating open company at Tampa Bay Downs to break her maiden. She's another with a tough post position, but she does get a strong rider on her back. My top pick is drawn much better. Lady Wisdom (#2) made one prior turf start last season where she was dismissed at 38-1. Yet she outran those odds to finish second in a photo despite racing wide on the turns. That was a much better performance than the bare result suggests, and she appears to have improved since then. She took a big step forward when Lasix was added two back, showing improved early speed to break her maiden in gate-to-wire fashion. She regressed last time in stakes company, but now she's getting back on what might be her preferred surface. There isn't much speed signed on here, and Lane Luzzi should put her in front from this advantageous draw.

Fair Value:
#2 LADY WISDOM, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 10

As long as the rain doesn't fall too heavily, this finale should feature a full field of runners going two turns on the turf. The conditions are relatively unusual, as horses can run for a $50k starter first-level allowance condition or treat it as a $40k non-winners-of-three lifetime claimer. Most horses are running for the starter condition with only Leftembehind (#6) in for the claiming tag among those in the main body of the field. It's a wide open affair without a clear favorite. Horses like Miztertonic (#5) and Nostalgic One (#10) figure to attract support, largely due to the fact that they're ridden by two of the top jockeys on the circuit. Yet neither one has much early speed, and both could be pace-compromised in a race lacking many frontrunners. Both of these horses disappointed in their 2024 finales, but Miztertonic was running back on one week's rest and got a wide trip, whereas Nostalgic One was trying 1 1/2 miles against tougher. They're both dangerous, but I don't trust either one. Mr Flowers (#3) also returns from the layoff as a new face at this kind of level. He just broke his maiden when last seen in October, but beat a decent field in doing so. He seemed to really come to hand late in the year, finally learning how to settle and finish in his races. Now he's switching into the barn of Jamie Ness, and he drew well with a good turf rider on his back. He also possesses a decent amount of tactical speed, which should help him work out the right trip. Among those switching surfaces, Neon Bordeaux (#8) is a candidate to move up on this surface. Some may hold his one synthetic race at Turfway against him, but he got a terrible trip that day, shuffled back and steadied at a couple of points. He has improved since then, and has plenty of pedigree to handle this surface. He looks well meant for Rick Dutrow, but he's another without much early speed. My top pick is Omey Island (#7). The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on a clear lead in a scenario favoring frontrunners. He tried out those tactics when attempting to stretch his speed to 9 furlongs on dirt last time, and he just couldn't quite see out the distance. However, he did run the best dirt race of his career in defeat, proving that his visually impressive 12-length maiden score in January was no fluke. Horses generally are able to carry their speed farther on the turf, so I like him getting back on this surface. He did try grass early in his career, and he ran better than it looks, especially when getting a ridiculously wide trip in his only turf route attempt. He should be more successful here, and will be a price.

Fair Value:
#7 OMEY ISLAND, at 7-1 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

I don't want to settle for a very short price on this Linda Rice entry. La Banquera (#1) has obviously been in fantastic form since getting claimed for $25k late last year. She's reeled off 4 consecutive victories for this barn, and has run fast speed figures each time until she regressed down to a 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure in her last start. She was beating weaker company that day, and now gets a class test as she moves up into open allowance company. The same goes for Save Us Melania (#1A), who has run some of the fastest speed figures in this field. Yet she also beat a softer field last time, and that was going a mile. It's unclear if she can deal with a faster pace sprinting at this level. They're arguably the two horses to beat, but they both have questions to answer and will be an underlay. Proud Foot (#3) makes some sense as she drops in class. She was simply overmatched against tough rival Striker Has Dial last time, but she's been pretty consistent since returning from a layoff this winter. This is probably the right spot for her, but she does need some pace to develop. My top pick is Majestic Return (#2). She might get somewhat overlooked based on that lackluster result off the layoff last time. However, she didn't get the right trip, as she was ridden like a horse who needed a start. She actually broke on top, but was quickly reined in to rate off the pace. She's been a horse who does her best work from the front end, and you have to think she's going to get a more aggressive ride given the switch back to Kendrick Carmouche today. She's worked well since that race and seems likely to step forward.

Fair Value:
#2 MAJESTIC RETURN, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 2

I'm not going to make a strong case for betting this race, since it's hard to have much confidence in anyone's form. Ah Ca Ira (#4) has been improving over the course of her recent starts and is probably the one to beat. Distance isn't supposed to be a significant concern for her, but she still has to prove she can go two turns, as do all of these. I still prefer her to horses like Calling an Audible (#1), who has had more than her fair share of chances, and Global Charmer (#3), coming off one good effort at 6 furlongs. There are so many unknown factors in this race, so I'm not inclined to settle for any of the short prices. My top pick is longshot Staged Conflict (#6), who obviously has to turn things around if she's to win any race on this circuit. She was beaten nearly 20 lengths by Ah Ca Ira last time, and that's quite a deficit to overcome. Yet she did finally show some signs of life in that race, appearing to figure things out late before galloping out pretty well. She shows an improved workout since then, and now gets Lasix for the first time. She's bred to run all day on the dam's side, and goes out for connections that can win with a price.

Fair Value:
#6 STAGED CONFLICT, at 10-1 or greater

RACE 3

Perhaps Naive Melody (#5) will be one of these Wesley Ward horses that takes all the money and wins for fun. That was the case on debut, but things didn't work out so well when she returned to New York for her second start. She did ship back to Kentucky in between those races, so perhaps all that travel was too much for her to handle. She was pretty disappointing as the odds-on favorite in that East View, but she has bounced back with some better workouts since then. Notably, her last drill was in company with recent allowance winner Whatchatalkinabout, who was one of the favorites in the Grade 3 Commonwealth before getting scratched at the gate, and she more than held her own with that stablemate. She obviously has talent, but this is not an easy spot facing the boys. The alternative to this favorite that interests me the most is Scheduling Dude (#6). This speedy colt is drawn well outside of other speed, and gets some changes that should help him. He's adding blinkers, which shouldn't hurt a horse that wants to be forward. Yet more importantly he's adding Lasix, which feels like it might be something he needs to take his game to the next level. I'm not sure if he bled two back at Laurel, but he certainly ran like a horse that was having trouble getting his air. He did bounce back with a better effort following a two-month break last time against a tough field at this level. He also didn't seem totally comfortable racing inside of horses when challenged. He should be a fair price here, and he put forth an effort in December that makes him the horse to beat.

Fair Value:
#6 SCHEDULING DUDE, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 7

The horse to beat in this first-level allowance for New York-breds is Bosun (#8), who won his turf debut against open company at Fair Grounds. He was returning from a long layoff in that spot, but nevertheless produced a career-best performance, taking to the turf with enthusiasm. The pace did come apart for him, but he still finished strongly despite swapping leads through the lane. A repeat of that 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure will obviously make him tough for this group to handle, but he has to prove he can bring that form north. Between the two likely shortest prices, I prefer Not for Hire (#12), who also returns from a layoff. This 3-year-old showed some talent on debut over this course and distance last year. I don't think he was beating the strongest field that day, but he did it decisively. The connections then stretched him out around two turns in the Central Park, and he actually ran pretty well. He set an honest pace and understandably faded against a stronger field than this. He's returning at the right level and distance. There should be plenty of early speed in this race, as the TimeformUS Pace Projector suggests. My top pick is first time turfer Attorney Wade (#10). This colt ran a deceptively strong race on debut in a pretty salty maiden affair, won by subsequent stakes winner Prince Valiant. He traveled well in behind the leaders in a slow-paced race and kicked on in the stretch to finish well clear of the rest. He benefited from an outside draw in his second start, stalking the pace and taking over when ready. As well as he's run on dirt, he does have plenty of turf pedigree. Omaha Beach is a 14% turf sprint sire, and his two siblings handled the turf, with one winning over hurdles. Digging deeper into his female family, his second dam was a multiple Group 3-placed turf horse in France.

Fair Value:
#10 ATTORNEY WADE, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 8

After the scratch of the likely favorite, first time starter Coach Case (#5) could become the public choice. I prefer this one between the two Christophe Clement debut runners, and I expect the bettors will as well. The barn obviously has great statistics with first time starters on turf in general. This son of good turf influence Slumber had been training forwardly at Saratoga last summer before going to the sidelines. He was based in Florida during the winter, and recently has been the workmate of Grade 1 winner Carson's Run, so it would appear that there's still some ability here. It seems like a good sign that the barn's regular rider Dylan Davis shows up on this horse, and I expect a good effort first time out. Among those with turf experience, Vitalize (#8) is perhaps the best option. He ran reasonably well in a couple of turf routes last year, getting a tough trip in his turf debut before finishing second at a price in October. He improved on dirt over the winter, and may be capable of better now. That said, I always love to make a case the first time turfers at this time of year, and one who might fly under the radar is Home Invasion (#2). Mohaymen isn't a bad turf influence by any means, and both foals to race from this dam were best on turf including a turf-winning full-sibling. He has the long, high-striding action of a turf horse, so I think this surface switch will move him forward. He obviously needs to run a lot faster to beat this field, but he's drawn well inside for an underrated trainer and gets a positive late rider switch to Ruben Silvera.

Fair Value:
#2 HOME INVASION, at 10-1 or greater