TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 3

There is very little pace signed on in this mile and a half marathon, so it's hard to project how the trips will play out. Vesting (#1) sports solid form at this level despite having gotten his fair share of wide trips along the way. He was sold for $85k this spring, and transferred to Mike Maker, but it's hard to improve horses coming out of Chad Brown's stable. I also wonder if this horse really wants to go this far, since he's lacked finish in most of his three-turn route attempts. A couple of horses exit that Apr. 24 race at Keeneland going this distance. Greystone (#5) ran the better race, closing with a rush through the final furlong after getting held up in upper stretch. However, this gelding is almost always leaving himself with too much to do, and it's hard to see him getting the right setup in this race. For that reason, I prefer Hamilton's Way (#2), who flattened out in that race at Keeneland but at least showed some improvement on his prior form. He achieved a marathon victory over this course last spring, and has been pretty inconsistent since then. Yet now he lands in a spot where his tactical speed could be an advantage. All of the contenders in this turf marathon have their flaws, but at least Be of Courage (#4) appears to be in great form right now. He ran very well off the long layoff two back, and then got rank in the early stages of the Kingston, a race in which he was probably a little overmatched anyway. He is unproven going this far, but his dam was graded stakes-placed going 1 1/2 miles on turf, and he possesses a turn of foot that should help him outrun these foes if the race turns into a sprint to the finish.

Fair Value:
#4 BE OF COURAGE, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 6

She has some things to prove as she moves up in class off a maiden win, but Gallant Greta (#1) seems like one of the stronger contenders in this first-level allowance. She wasn't beating the strongest field las time, but she won decisively, earning a competitive 103 TimeformUS Speed figure. She's performed well in all of her turf starts and would be no surprise here, especially drawing an advantageous inside post position. A few fillies exit the May 2 race at this level, in which Tongue Twister (#6) was the top finisher of those returning in this spot. She did have to pause briefly when commencing her rally in upper stretch, but she got a great trip overall, saving ground on the turns. She merits respect given her consistent recent turf form, but she does need some pace to develop. There doesn't appear to be much speed signed on in this one-mile turf affair, which could put top pick Howling Wind (#7) in an advantageous position as the likely frontrunner. She has to prove she can move up on turf, but we have seen some progeny of Solomini handle turf fairly well. Her dam has produced a turf winner despite not being bred to any strong turf influence sires. She has run some of her best races going a mile, so distance obviously works for her. Now she gets a rider upgrade to Javier Castellano for this turf test, and she figures to be a fair price.

Fair Value:
#7 HOWLING WIND, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 8

Six of the 10 runners in this New York-bred allowance optional claimer are returning from lengthy layoffs to make their first starts of 2025, which adds a layer of uncertainty to an already difficult handicapping puzzle. A few of those making their seasonal debuts last raced in a Nov. 10 race at this level. Among that group, Yarrow (#1) might be the most trustworthy option. This 7-year-old tends to run well off layoffs, but he did work out an absolutely perfect trip when last seen in that common race. He's already won this condition multiple times, but can take advantage of the waiver option as he returns at the same level. Chris Englehart sends out a pair of runners. The one who will attract much more support is Waralo (#10), who earned a career-best 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure when he finally made his turf debut last time, winning his state-bred first-level allowance condition by over 3 lengths. He's now stepping up against a tougher field, but he should be a major factor if able to repeat his last effort. The only problem is that he's drawn in the far outside post position with plenty of other speed to his inside, so he could get hung wide. Englehart's other runner Clancy Fancy (#6), like his stablemate, is one of just a few who isn't coming off a significant layoff, having already made a couple of starts this winter. This speedy gelding has only tried turf once, and it was a better performance than the result suggests. He contested a strong pace while racing 3-wide on the far turn, and took over in upper stretch before getting overhauled late. That 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure doesn't put him that far off the main contenders here. Furthermore, he improved significantly on turf, having never run that well in his prior dirt races. Since then, he's continued to move forward on dirt, suggesting that he's just progressed as a racehorse since last year. I think he has untapped potential on this surface, and he figures to be a generous price.

Fair Value:
#6 CLANCY FANCY, at 6-1 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 3

I'm against Ain't No Joke (#3), who may go favored after scratches. He would be difficult to beat if he could repeat that effort two back. However, he was very disappointing last time and has now been claimed again by a barn that doesn’t have as much success with this move. Arcadian (#1) is dropping to the lowest level of his career, which should suit him, since he did come alive when dropped down in the maiden ranks this winter. He just needs some pace to develop up front, since he lacks much early speed. My top pick is Sunday Gilt (#4). I really liked the grit that he displayed last time when tracking in behind a wall of horses, getting mildly shuffled back in upper stretch, and then rallying between rivals to victory. The margin was only a half-length, but I felt like he was much the best that day. He now steps up against N3L rivals, but he has some class behind him and may still have upside in these bottom-level claimers.

Fair Value:
#4 SUNDAY GILT, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 5

This starter optional claimer is one of the most difficult handicapping puzzles on this card. Likely favorite Walley World (#7) improved considerably on synthetic last time, chasing home a talented rival. He did win on turf prior to that for Saffie Joseph, but benefited from a good pace setup against a weaker field. A few horses exit the May 24 race at this level won by Hilliard. I don't love any of them, but perhaps Freedom Trail (#4) is a candidate to run beter this time as he makes his second start off a layoff. He didn't get an ideal trip, hung 3 to 4-wide around the turns before flattening out late. The other horse who had some minor trouble in there is Nostalgic One (#10), who had to wait in traffic on the far turn before switching outside too late. I'm just concerned that he drew outside and often leaves himself with too much ground to make up. This might not be the right pace scenario for Best Bet (#6), but the scratch of Laurel Valley does help his cause. I just want to highlight this horse, because I could never figure out why connections haven't ever tried him on turf. He moves like a turf horse, is out of a 3-time turf winning dam, and is a half-brother to turf stakes performer Buttercream Babe. He actually comes into this off his best effort in a while, nearly holding on after setting a fast pace. Don’t be surprised if he outruns his odds. My to pick is a horse who should fit the expected race flow. Just for Luck (#3) makes his first start off a trainer switch to Rick Dutrow, who is 4 for 10 ($5.42 ROI) with turf routers in that situation over the past 5 years. This horse has gotten some tough trips recently. He was wide from post 12 when trying this level last summer at Saratoga, then was much the best in each of his next two starts going 4 to 5-wide on the turns at both Monmouth and Woodbine. He's had some time off, but lands in a realistic spot and should actually save more ground from this draw.

Fair Value:
#3 JUST FOR LUCK, at 6-1 or greater
#6 BEST BET, at 12-1 or greater

RACE 7

Toscano (#3) figures to go favored here as he switches back to dirt after a turf experiment at Saratoga just 17 days ago. He actually put in a decent effort in that grass race, confirming that he's maintained strong form since the Mike Maker claim. He won convincingly going this distance on the dirt two back, but he was beating a weaker field on that occasion. He obviously makes sense in this spot, but he's pretty exposed and I didn't think he necessarily had to win this race at a short price. I'm not a fan of the entry, especially if Jaa Mode (#1) is the one who pulls in most of the support. This feels like it's just a tightener to get this horse ready to stretch back out around two turns where he's had most of his success. I'm concerned that he will get outrun to the lead going this distance, and he's not one that really wants to pass horses. Three Captains (#1A) ran well stretching out at Monmouth last time in a race that came up about as tough as this one. He's just a little hard to trust based on his prior form. Among the short prices, that horse I would prefer is Dear Chairman (#6). He would clearly be a handful if able to reproduce that 12-length maiden victory over the same course and distance, for which he earned a 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He was in over his head last time against open company in the Long Branch, but is now drawn well outside getting back to one turn. He's not the most trustworthy sort, but he's dangerous when he gets the right trip. I don't think this is a particularly strong race for the level, so I want to give special consideration to Corvus (#5). He may finally be finding a field he can handle after going off at big prices against some pretty tough competition dating back to last year. He chased home stakes winners Sand Devil, Captain Cook, and Soontobeking as well as other talented rivals who are stronger than those he meets here. Corvus wasn't competitive in all of those races, but he usually finishes well and it feels like he's been rounding back into form over his last couple of starts. He placed himself closer to the early pace than usual, and stayed on gamely for second going a distance that may be too far for him. He now cuts back to a mile and adds Lasix for the first time for a barn that has had success with that move.

Fair Value:
#5 CORVUS, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 8

I'm not convinced by Silent Melody (#3) or River Tay (#7), who could attract the most support in this conditioned claimer based on their turf speed figures. The former really tailed off late last season, disappointing in her last couple of turf races before getting dropped in for a $12,500 tag at Gulfstream where no one claimed her. River Tay found some of the best form of her career when last seen, but was facing softer company at Laurel. It's not guarantee that she'll reproduce that form off the layoff. I want to explore some other options. I would have upgraded Toxic Girl (#12) trying turf for the first time if she had drawn a better post position, but she could face a tough trip from a wide draw over the inner course with the temporary rails down. Enigmatic (#5) intrigues me as she gets back on grass for the first time since her career debut. That wasn't a poor effort at Kentucky Downs, as she set a legitimate pace before tiring against a strong field. She's hard to totally trust given her poor recent form, but she has pedigree for grass and may be able to control on the front end. Duboff (#8) looks too slow to contend here based on her speed figures, but those numbers were earned as a 2-year-old. She actually showed some promise in those early turf sprints, particularly her debut where she closed well after a wide trip. She is bred to stretch out, and looked like one that should handle more ground last year. Greg Sacco does well off layoffs, and spots her at an appropriate level for this return. My top pick is Miss Spitfire (#4). I think you can argue that we still haven't see the best that this filly has to offer given the way she's been campaigned. She didn't look like she knew how to be a racehorse in her lone turf start on debut, and clearly improved a great deal when returning from a layoff for Fernando Abreu this winter. She won that synthetic maiden event despite going wide on both turns, so it's a better effort than it looks. She was obviously overmatched on the wrong surface last time, but now picks up a strong rider and deserves another chance returning to turf.

Fair Value:
#4 MISS SPITFIRE, at 6-1 or greater
#8 DUBOFF, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 11

If I could redo this morning line, I'd probably make Bourbon Milk Punch (#11) a far more tepid favorite than my initial 8-5 line. She may still go favored, but I don't want her at any kind of short price. She looks like a precocious sort that was ready to run last summer as a 2-year-old, and just hasn't gone on since then. I don't think she's well suited to route races, and the wide draw doesn't help her cause. Regarding the morning line, I'd go in the opposite direction with Leslie's Star (#3), who I probably pegged too high at 8-1. The Bill Mott barn has been on a hot streak lately, and the bettors have taken notice, so I hardly expect this one to slip through the cracks. She hasn't done much running in either start, but she got a ridiculous wide trip on debut at Kentucky Downs and now gets needed class relief. She can do better, but I just don't expect her to offer much value here. I think the most likely winner is actually Uncommon (#6), another who makes her first start for a tag after two maiden special weight attempts. She set too strong a pace last time against a decent field at Tampa, and will probably go back to rating tactics here. She put in a strong late run after breaking poorly on debut in a race dominated up front, and I expect her true running style lies somewhere between those two starts, and I could bet her if the price is fair. The other horse I would use at a bigger price is Lady Gunner (#7), who already tried this level last time. I don't love the race she's exiting, but it was the best effort of her career and she did have some minor trouble. She showed some early speed, but was taken in hand to rate inside, and then got shuffled back on the far turn before regaining her momentum to rally into fourth. She can make better use of her speed here, and figures to get somewhat overlooked.

Fair Value:
#7 LADY GUNNER, at 8-1 or greater