Picks & Plays for Saturday, April 16
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 1 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 2: 4 - 7 - 2 - 6
Race 3: 2 - 6 - 1 - 8
Race 4: 6 - 1 - 3
Race 5: 3 - 8 - 6 - 2
Race 6: 1 - 5 - 8 - 7
Race 7: 3 - 7 - 8 - 1
Race 8: 8 - 10 - 9 - 5
Race 9: 2 - 12 - 4 - 7
Race 10: 4 - 9 - 8 - 1/1A
PLAYS
(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)
RACE 1: PROVEN HOPE (#1)
#5 Jester’s Song obviously has the best speed figures in this field, but it must be noted that he was riding a track bias when he finished second on debut. The rail was a significant advantage on Jan. 13, and he rode the inside path for much of his trip. However, this guy wasn’t disgraced last time against a tougher field, and horses have come back out of that race to run very well. Chad Brown has a pair of runners in this compact field. The well-bred #2 Higher Quality figures to be the shorter price of the two. He began his career in the Juddmonte silks for Chad Brown last winter, and put in a solid effort on debut. He was no match for winner Promise Keeper, but that one would go on to prove his quality in stakes company, winning the G3 Peter Pan. Higher Quality was eventually sold for $95k at Keeneland November, but was purchased by owners who sent him right back to Brown. He’s dangerous off the layoff for a barn that typically has them ready. #3 Digitize makes his debut in this spot, but I wonder what we’ll get from this gelding who is a close relative to the barn’s Grade 1 winner Complexity, being by the same sire out of a dam who is his half-sister. All of his recent workouts have been in company with New York-bred Aggregation, who races later. My top pick is #1 Proven Hope. He only managed to finish 6th in his debut, but there was a lot to like about the effort. He broke well, but wasn’t quite quick enough to hold his position, causing him to get shuffled back multiple times on the backstretch. He entered the turn 11th of 12, but launched a wide move to pass half the field before flattening out. He got dismissed at 42-1 that day, so it’s not like there were high expectations. That came up a fast race, and we’ve already seen fifth-place finisher Emirates Road come back to win. Mark Hennig doesn’t have great second time out stats, but this one is surely a candidate to improve.
WIN: #1 Proven Hope, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 3: HUSH OF A STORM (#2)
I don’t have a strong argument against #6 Microsecond, other than the fact that he’s dropping in class for his return from the layoff. It’s not exactly the most confident move for a horse that had clear excuses for his losses at the end of his 2021 campaign. His form in early 2021 was strong, as he used his tactical speed to great effect. However, he failed to break sharply in that June 5 optional claimer and was subsequently steadied heading into the clubhouse turn. Then last time he was sacrificed as a rabbit in the West Point before going to the shelf. It’s interesting that he switches back into the barn of Rudy Rodriguez here. He’ll obviously win with his top effort, but I don’t want to settle for him as the favorite. I also really like the primary alternative #2 Hush of a Storm. This horse has only tried turf once in his career, and it was a better effort than it might appear at first glance. He was facing legitimate stakes horses in that Bryan Station, and was trying the turf while coming off a 7-month layoff. There wasn’t any real pace in that spot, and he actually did well to pass some horses late in a race dominated up front. That turf course was also on the soft side, so I like him getting a chance over firmer ground. He’s since improved on synthetic, but I like that he brought his form to New York recently. That last effort on dirt was strong, and I expect him to move forward with this surface switch. The others don’t appeal to me as much, as all are coming off significant layoffs. #9 Straw Into Gold has to improve, and #8 Danzigwiththestars could need a race. I’d rather use #1 Good Old Boy underneath at a bigger price, since has at least run well fresh in the past.
WIN: #2 Hush of a Storm, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 7: MODERN MIDAS (#3)
#7 Eminency has to be considered the horse to beat based on his overall consistency. He put in a strong effort in his career debut and has run up to a similar level in most of his starts since then. The problem is that he hasn’t really moved forward at all, and some others appear to have more upward mobility than he does. On the other hand, he did well to finish second last time, using his speed to contest the pace before getting passed by the odds-on favorite. He finished ahead of a couple of rivals that he meets again here, but I prefer one of the horses who followed him home last time. #3 Modern Midas obviously has issues getting out of the gate. He was bumped badly and steadied out of position in his debut before launching a mild rally. Then last time he bobbled a stride away from the gate, putting him at the back of that 14-horse field. He did well to negotiate traffic, getting up for fourth, but that early trouble cost him any chance of earning a higher placing. He’s clearly better than his results indicate, but he needs to break cleanly to work out a winning trip. He gets a rider switch to Jose Lezcano, and figures to be a fair price once again, so I’ll land on him as my top pick. If he can ever break cleanly, I suspect he possesses more natural speed than he’s shown. The other horse that interests me is #2 Khufu. This new face from Florida will make his first start against NY-breds. He tried synth in the debut and ran a decent race, but seemed to get discouraged trying to rally up the rail. Then last time on turf he was very keen wearing blinkers for the first time, tugging his way to the lead before fading late. He now tries his third surface in as many starts. I’m not too concerned about the low-percentage local trainer filling in for Biancone. This horse has shown ability in the mornings, and has pedigree to handle dirt. He’s dangerous picking up Javier Castellano.
WIN: #3 Modern Midas, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 9: MISSING LINK (#2)
I’ll be interested to see how the public approaches this confusing affair. Most of those with turf form are coming off layoffs, so there is some guesswork to be done. #7 Freedomofthepress looked good in her lone turf sprint last November, but she was meeting a much weaker maiden claiming field that day. #4 Highway Queen was in good form when last seen on turf. She’s never won on this surface, but she always shows up with a good effort and just needs some pace ahead of her. There isn’t that much speed in this race, which makes Florida shipper #2 Missing Link fairly appealing. This filly figures to get an aggressive ride breaking from the rail under Javier Castellano. She ship up from Florida looking a little light on speed figures. However, most of her turf races came when she was a younger horse, early in her 3-year-old season. She finally got back to grass last time, first off the claim for Peter Walder and second off a layoff. She tried to get forward from the rail but was outrun and raced keenly thereafter. That was a solid field, and she really isn’t meeting tougher rivals here despite shipping up to New York. Speed could also come from #12 Thegoddessofsnakes, who may fly under the radar in her return to grass. She only tried this surface twice last year, while still a maiden. She actually ran pretty well in both attempts over this surface, getting involved in honest paces before fading. She met some good horses on Oct. 17 last year.
WIN: #2 Missing Link, at 9-2 or greater
USE: 4,12
RACE 10: PRINCE OF PHAROAHS (#4)
This race loses some of its appeal with the scratch of #2 Saint Selby, who might have gone favored and looked fairly vulnerable. #9 River Dog is a real wild card in this field. If he could remember who he was at the start of his career, he’ll be a handful for this group. However, he really tailed off towards the end of his brief 2021 campaign. I don’t think he’s a horse that needs to be in front, so he’s drawn perfectly to work out a stalking trip on the outside. He’s worked quickly for this return as he now makes his first start for the Kelly Breen barn. #8 Bustin Timberlake is another who wants to be forwardly placed but at least he’s drawn better outside of his main pace rivals. I liked that he took a step forward second off the layoff last time, though he was aided by a track that was helping speed types. I think he’s a contender, but I’m not confident that he’ll offer sufficient value. I want to go for a different horse exiting that March 19 affair. #4 Prince of Pharoahs was turning back to a dirt sprint that day, and I think he can a lot better than his result would indicate. This horse typically wants to be somewhat forward, but he was squeezed back soon after the start, relegated to the back of an 11-horse field. That was especially detrimental on a day when speed appeared to be aided by the racetrack. All things considered, Prince of Pharoahs launched a strong rally to get up into fourth. Now he’s making his second start off the layoff, and I like that Linda Rice is trying another sprint. He’s going to get plenty of pace to close into, and now the connections know they can ride him as more of a closing type.
WIN: #4 Prince of Pharoahs, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 8,9
Picks & Plays for Friday, April 15
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 6 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 2: 5 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 3: 2 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 4: 5 - 1A - 3 - 6
Race 5: 8 - 7 - 1 - 3
Race 6: 1 - 3 - 7 - 2
Race 7: 2 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 8: 7 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 9: 6 - 10 - 5 - 3
PLAYS
(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)
RACE 1: JABBERWOCK (#6)
#2 Lakota Spirit was beaten by a pretty good one in her debut, as winner Favor came back to defeat allowance foes before finishing third in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks. This filly was bet down to 2-5 favoritism for her second start but was unable to hold off a closing longshot after chasing an honest early pace. The horse she chased down, Missy Greer, returned to win her next start with an improved speed figure, validating the performance. Now returns from a brief freshening but has been training right along. She has the tactical speed to be in front early, and looks like a deserving favorite. Shug McGaughey has entered an uncoupled pair of fillies that look like the most obvious threats. #4 Aunt Naughty is a 4-year-old who has been slowly coming along. She participated in a live maiden event sprinting two back, but I wasn’t thrilled with her last race at Gulfstream. I prefer #5 First to Act, who stretches out in her second start. She ran into a good one in her career debut, as heavy favorite Equal Pay just galloped to an easy victory and looks bound for better things. This daughter of Curlin will probably appreciate more ground, and Shug McGaughey is 8 for 28 (29%, $2.68 ROI) with maiden second time starters going from sprints to dirt routes over the past 5 years. They’re all logical, but the horse who intrigues me most from a value standpoint is #6 Jabberwock. This filly showed very little in her career debut, finishing a distant fourth while not earning much of a speed figure. However, she was very wide on the turn that day, and never looked comfortable in the slop. I suspect she’s one that needs to race into form, as a large-framed filly who appears to carry some weight. She’s bred to be decent as a half-sister to allowance type No Salt and stakes-placed Shawdyshawdyshawdy. Abreu is 4 for 8 (50%, $3.82 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt routes over 5 years. She gets Lasix here, and shows a series of significantly improved workout times for this second attempt.
WIN: #6 Jabberwock, at 9-1 or greater
RACE 2: AL’S PRINCE (#5)
Any race that features #4 Bail Out at a short price is a race that’s worth a look. He always runs well enough to win at this level, but he just never quite gets over that hump. This 0-for-25 maiden has tallied 10 second-place finishes during his career, including 4 consecutive runner-up results to close out his 2021 campaign. On the surface of things it looks like he’ll have trouble losing this race since there really aren’t any other horses with convincing turf form in here. However, he usually finds a way. I think there’s one clear alternative, #5 Al’s Prince, who I regard as a very likely winner. This gelding will be making his first ever start on the turf, and I think he’s going to like it. His dam never won on the turf but handled the surface, and she is a half-sister to Grade 1 turf winner Ultimate Eagle. Furthermore, this runner is by good turf influence Cairo Prince. Watching his prior races, he moves like a horse that should take to grass. Some may view the drop and surface switch as a negative, but Todd Pletcher is 6 for 25 (24%, $2.39 ROI) with maidens dropping in for a tag for the first time in their first turf attempts. I’m confident this is the right spot for him, and I have little interest in anyone else. #6 King of Sting was mildly effective on turf last time, and at least showed some improved early speed on the surface. However, he's facing a few tougher rivals here. #3 Left On Boylston has some turf pedigree as a half-brother to turf allowance type Turn of Events, though he would have to improve considerably with the surface switch.
WIN: #5 Al's Prince, at 7-5 or greater
RACE 3: SECRET LOVE (#2)
Two 4-year-old fillies figure to vie for favoritism in this 6-furlong allowance affair. #6 Guardian Moon has only been seen sparingly since launching her career in the summer of 2020 at Saratoga. She was highly-regarded that day and delivered right out of the box. She didn’t resurface for 8 months after that, but picked up right where she left off here last April with an impressive allowance victory over this course and distance. This NY-bred stepped out into open company off yet another layoff last time at Gulfstream, but was simply outfooted every step of the way. If she's still the same horse we saw last year, she'll be awfully tough to beat. Main rival #3 Stony Point was bet down to favoritism and did not disappoint in her debut at Tampa last month. She showed good early speed from the inside, and came under some pressure on the turn before easily pulling clear in the lane. She was much the best that day, but the waters now get deeper. Shug McGaughey is 0 for 8 with last-out debut winners making their second career starts on turf over the past 5 years, and most short prices with just one hitting the board. She figures to take plenty of money and may need to improve. I’m going in a different direction with first time turfer #2 Secret Love. She tries open company after running through her NY-bred allowance conditions on the dirt. After missing the second half of 2021, she’s returned in good form this winter. She needed her first start back off the layoff, but looked like her old self last time, rallying strongly to victory. Turf is a question mark, but she has the pedigree for it. She’s by 17% turf sire Not This Time and is a half-sister to one minor turf winner. The dam is also a full-sister to multiple turf stakes winner Key to Power. I’ve always gotten the impression that she might like the switch to grass and she figures to be a square price given the presence of the two favorites.
WIN: #2 Secret Love, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 6: COLORMEPAZZI (#1)
#2 Extreme is the horse to beat in this spot given his set of recent speed figures, which are just a little higher than his rivals. He’s had four tries at this level since the claim and has only managed to pick up a couple of minor awards. However, his last two races came going a mile, which is probably on the long side for him. I like the turnback for him, and he figures to get a good trip close to the pace. I’m not totally convinced if he’s a short price, but I do think he’s a contender. #3 Bezos is the enigma in this spot. Once highly regarded by the Bob Baffert barn, he never really panned out in the afternoons. He was one of many expensive claims made by Linda Rice at the Churchill Downs meet last fall, most of which have no fared well since then. However, I do think it’s a good sign that Linda is running back in a protected spot rather than risking him for a tag again. He’s always been a good work horse, so it’s no surprise to see him return with some fast drills showing. I think he’s intriguing, but would need a square price. A few of these exit a March 18 race at this level, and the one I want from that affair is #1 Colormepazzi. This horse completely missed the break, rearing up as the gates opened, which left him at the back of the pack early. He actually ran reasonably well after that, making up some ground on the far turn before flattening out late. He finished behind a couple of today’s rivals, including #7 Jake Rocks, but I think he had a tougher trip than that foe. Colormepazzi did benefit from a rail trip riding a bias on Jan. 22, but he has other fast races in his form. He also is a quirky horse that seems to do his best running when he’s drawn inside, which is the case today.
WIN: #1 Colormepazzi, at 9-2 or greater
USE: 3,7
Picks & Plays for Thursday, April 14
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 1/1A - 5 - 4
Race 2: 4 - 3 - 6 - 5
Race 3: 1 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 4: 5 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 5: 9 - 5 - 11 - 10
Race 6: 2 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 7: 6 - 2 - 1
Race 8: 5 - 2B - 7 - 2 - 8
Race 9: 11 - 1 - 3 - 2
PLAYS
(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)
RACE 3: BOSSMAKINBOSSMOVES (#1)
A repeat of that 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure that #6 Never Early posted in his return from the layoff will likely put him right back in the winner's circle here. However, he had all the best of it that day, setting a slow pace while facing a much weaker field. The two horses who finished directly behind him came back last week to each regress by 14 points in their next starts. Never Early was going out for a hot barn that day, though new trainer Jeffrey Englehart is 8 for 19 (42%, $2.44 ROI) first off the claim over the past 3 months. He’s the horse to beat, but I would be wary at a very short price. I see two viable alternatives. One of those is #5 Silipo, who makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice. This horse was on a steep upward trajectory earlier in the winter, before things fell apart in his last race. Yet the connections may have squeezed the lemon dry, as he was making his third start in just 29 days. Now he’s had about 7 weeks to recover since his recent disappointment. This barn has been a little cold, but the horse fits very well in this spot and is dangerous if any pace develops up front. The same can be said of my top pick #1 Bossmakinbossmoves. He was a visually impressive winner when he broke his maiden here in late December, making a powerful move off the far turn to draw clear impressively. He hasn’t been quite as effective since then, but he did catch a tough field in the Gander. I expected a better effort dropping down to this level last time, but Trevor McCarthy could never seem to maneuver him into the clear, as he tried to rally behind horses in his first start with blinkers. I like the cutback to 7 furlongs, since he figures to get more pace ahead of him, and he ran well sprinting early in his career.
WIN: #1 Bossmakinbossmoves, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 5
RACE 5: UNCLE’S GEM (#9)
There are many ways to go in this wide-open NY-bred allowance event. The horse to beat may be #10 Palace Gossip, who will try to play catch-me-if-you-can on the front end as she returns from a layoff for Tony Dutrow. This marks her first start against winners, but she earned a strong 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her maiden score over this course in November. She could face some early pace pressure from first time turfer #2 Ready A. P., who figures to attract support based on her improving dirt form. While More Than Ready can obviously get turf runners, she doesn’t have much grass pedigree on the dam’s side, and I’m dubious that she’ll be a playable price. Among those with turf experience, I’m more interested in a couple of runners I pegged at 6-1 on the morning line. One of those is #5 Fontanafredda, who didn’t win either of her turf starts last year, but ran well on both occasions. She blew the start of her turf debut at Saratoga but rallied well for second. She then had a wild trip in her second start, steadying early before getting spun extremely wide on the far turn. She showed improved tactical speed in her dirt maiden win last year, so perhaps she’ll be more forwardly placed in her return to grass. My top pick is #9 Uncle’s Gem. She had her chances at this level last year and failed to break through. However, she put together a pretty consistent set of speed figures that make her competitive in this return. I like her tactical speed for this spot and think she could fly under the radar with so many new faces in this field. Linda Rice is an excellent 8 for 32 (25%, $2.97 ROI) off layoffs of 120 to 240 days in turf sprints over 5 years, and she’s 3 for 6 at Aqueduct within that sample. The other horse that I’d want to include, only if she’s a big price, is #11 Ofalltheginjoints. This filly may attract support merely due to the recent hot streak for the George Weaver barn. However, I like her getting on turf first off the claim. While her damside pedigree could go either way, she struck me as a turf type in her muddy track debut and I think she could take a step forward switching to this surface.
WIN: #9 Uncle's Gem, at 9-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #11 Ofalltheginjoints, at 15-1 or greater
USE: 5,10,11
RACE 6: QUESTION MY SANITY (#2)
The adage “bad horses win bad races” could certainly apply to this lackluster maiden claiming affair. My goal here is to shop for the right price, because I’m not keen to support an unappealing runner at short odds just because the standard of competition has declined. #5 Bird Ruler could go favored as he stretches out in his second start off the layoff, but he’s hardly one to trust. He earned one speed figure that would make him formidable here in November 2020 for his previous barn. Since then his form has declined and he hasn’t been competitive in a single dirt race. He could wake up on the class drop, but isn’t at all tempting as the favorite. #7 Nicholas James will get some support merely due to his lack of flaws, as the only first time starter in the field. However, it’s tough to debut going a mile and he figures to lack value going out for a barn that often touts their runners. A few of these exit the first race on March 19, but I can’t take 0-for-31 maiden #4 Alite, nor am I excited by the inconsistent #3 My Boy Colton. So I’m going to look a little farther back in that field for a possibly clever – or questionably sane – idea. #2 Question My Sanity has finished far back in both career starts, including that aforementioned March 19 race at this level. However, he did display marked improvement from his debut, in which he barely participated. This 3-year-old gelding actually caught my eye warming up on track last time, as he’s not a terrible looking specimen. He’s obviously on the slow side, but this son of Bodemeister has some substance to him and may just be a horse who needs to race into fitness. He figures to be a massive price, but he’s far from impossible if he improves again by a similar amount.
WIN: #2 Question My Sanity, at 10-1 or greater
RACE 8: HIGHLAND CHIEF (#5)
The Chad Brown / Peter Brant entry of #2 Kuramata and #2B Flop Shot will be difficult to overcome, especially if the latter draws into the race from the also eligible list. I actually think Flop Shot is the horse to beat, despite his tendency to settle for second. He’s been beaten by some pretty good horses in his narrow losses in this country. That was even true last time when he went down to defeat as the even-money favorite, as winner Carpenters Call wheeled right back to finish a good third in the Grade 3 Appleton. Entrymate Kuramata has more to prove, as he’s been a bit of a disappointment since winning here last April. A graded stakes experiment failed and his return from the layoff at Tampa was also disappointing. He did get pretty rank in the early going that day but he just lacked punch through the lane. I was actually more impressed with the finishing kick of longshot #7 Kygo, who finished just behind him that day. Kygo didn’t care for a marathon distance last time, but he’s cutting back and isn’t totally without a chance at a big price. Some may gravitate towards #10 Worth a Shot, who seeks his fifth win in a row. It’s rare to see a horse march right through his New York-bred allowance conditions and then proceed on through his open conditions straight away – and even rarer for it to happen with nearly a year between starts. He’s obviously a player if he returns in top form, but there’s other speed to contend with, and this is by far the toughest field he’s met. I want to go for a different wild card, #5 Highland Chief. This 5-year-old also returns from a lengthy layoff as he makes his first start in this country. He kept very strong company in Europe, competing in a trio of prestigious Group 1 events over 1 1/2 miles while facing the likes Pyledriver, Mogul, and Japan. At his best he’s clearly good enough to handle this field, but distance and form are the main questions. I actually don’t mind the cutback for him, since he was successful going shorter early in his career. Graham Motion is 5 for 21 (24%, $2.31 ROI) off layoffs of 180+ days with foreign shippers getting Lasix in turf routes over the past 5 years. I’m hopeful he’ll be a square price if the Chad Brown runners take as much money as I expect.
WIN: #5 Highland Chief, at 7-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #7 Kygo, at 20-1 or greater