TimeformUS Race Analysis
David Aragona posts his picks & plays each live race day.
Saturday, January 25
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.
PLAYS
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 1
It’s pretty rare to see allowance races carded with no conditions these days, and I can’t remember seeing any such race on the NYRA circuit in recent years. Yet that’s what we have in Saturday’s opener, and those unique conditions allow Phileas Fogg (#5) to seek his fourth win a row even exiting a stakes victory. That 8-length romp in the Queens County was the best performance of his career. A combination of beneficial scratches and favorable track conditions probably exaggerated his performance that day, and you could make similar points about each of his two prior victories. However, it’s still hard to argue that he’s been in excellent form recently and he’s found himself a pretty nice spot to keep the momentum going here. He was obviously ready to deliver a top effort off the freshening last time, and I just wonder if he’ll be as sharp this time after having put forth such an effort. Main rival Law Professor (#2) was the beaten favorite in the Queens County, and he just seemed a little dull that day. He got a very good trip and just couldn’t match the winner’s kick in upper stretch. Perhaps he doesn’t care for a wet track as much as he once did, since his last two performances over wet surfaces were lackluster. He tends to run well at Aqueduct, so it won’t be any surprise if he rebounds here. Looking for a better price, I’m mildly interested in both halves of the Ilkay Kantarmaci entry. Gun It (#1A) hasn’t gone this far in a very long time, but he did handle two turns reasonably well early in his career, and he appears to be back in decent form at the moment. I’m just more interested in Olympic Dreams (#1), who has the proven form over this distance. it's pretty easy to make excuses for his recent starts. He’s never loved a wet track, and he’s encountered sloppy surfaces in two of his last three starts. He ran into some pretty tough rivals in his lone recent dry track start in the Empire Classic two back, and didn’t even run that badly after chasing the vastly improved Mama’s Gold on the front end. Ilkay Kantarmaci’s horses have been running very well since the end of last year, and I expect that we haven’t yet seen the best that Olympic Dreams can produce for this barn.
Fair Value:
#1 OLYMPIC DREAMS, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 3
The Interborough goes through the likely favorite Socially Selective (#7), whose merits are fairly obvious. She’s had trouble staying on the racetrack throughout her career, but she’s been fairly consistent when she does make a rare appearance, never finishing out of the exacta. She seems to get a little better with each subsequent return, and that certainly seemed to be the case when she gave the multiple stakes winner Mystic Lake all she could handle in the Sugar Swirl last time. Now she ships back to New York and tries 7 furlongs for the first time, but she’s drawn well outside and should work out a good trip. Main rival St. Benedicts Prep (#1) has run similar speed figures, and sports a convincing record at this 7-furlong distance. However, she’s produced her best form against allowance and optional claiming competition, and hasn’t run quite as well without Lasix in a couple of recent stakes attempts. Now she’s wheeling back in just 7 days while already making her third start of 2025, so I wonder if we’ll see her best effort. Cara’s Time (#4) is due for a more aggressive ride this time after she was rated in the Garland of Roses. She faced a decent field that day and never quit through the lane, staying on for fourth. She would have a shot here if she could run as well as she did two back when she overcame a poor start to rush up and hang on for the victory. I would definitely consider upgrading her at the right price, especially after the scratch of a main pace rival to her outside. My top pick is Caldwell Luvs Gold (#2). This filly has displayed admirable versatility through her career. Yet she’s probably at her best sprinting on dirt, something she’s had limited opportunities to try over the past year. She ran especially well when cutting back to this distance last time, rallying to victory in a race where the TimeformUS Pace Figures are color-coded blue, indicating a slow pace. She has to earn a faster speed figure to beat this group, but she has upside as a newly turned 4-year-old, and will be a square price for one of the top barns in the country.
Fair Value:
#2 CALDWELL LUVS GOLD, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 4
I’m most interested in the class droppers in this $15k claimer. Darn That Song (#5) gets the most class relief of anyone in here after facing NY-bred allowance company in her last two starts. She’s also the quickest of them all early according to the TimeformUS Pace Projector. The trip didn’t work out last time, as she failed to make the front and was cut off in deep stretch. Snappin Buttons exited a similar trip to win here on Friday against a tougher field, and I expect a much better performance from this 6-year-old mare as she drops to a realistic level. My top pick is Collect Dattt (#7), who gets more subtle class relief coming out of an optional claimer at Finger Lakes. She encountered a deceptively strong field in that spot, and did well to contest the pace before fading. She doesn’t appear to be in the same form that she was when she upset a starter allowance field on this circuit last March. However, she has kept better company over the majority of her starts since then. She draws well outside here with an aggressive rider, and I’m expecting a better performance off this brief freshening.
Fair Value:
#7 COLLECT DATTT, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 7
I'm disappointed that Frankie Hiccups got scratched since she figured to take money and I thought she was particularly vulnerable in this spot. Awesome Roberta (#5) felt like a more reliable option and now is likely to go favored as she cuts back to a sprint distance. She didn’t handle the mile last time after chasing a pretty quick pace for the distance. She had chased home some superior rivals in her prior starts at this level, and has a right to bounce back in her first start adding Lasix. My top pick is Giant’s Audible (#8), who showed ability on debut when overcoming a wide draw to finish a close fifth against a decent field at Saratoga. She then got a tough trip next time, bumped at the start while always out of position. Those efforts came on turf, and she ran a slower speed figure when switched to dirt last time. However, she stayed on pretty well for third while still a bit green, lugging in through upper stretch before staying on late. She should do better with this outside draw while picking up top jockey Sahin Civaci. It’s also fair to argue that this switch to trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci is an upgrade based on his recent results.
Fair Value:
#8 GIANT'S AUDIBLE, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 8
Chileno coming out of this race is another disappointing scratch, since I thought he was a vulnerable favorite. Bourbon Chase (#5) could now inherit the favorite's role, and he's a litlte harder to knock. He’s exiting some fairly strong New York-bred optional claimers and it’s unclear that this open allowance came up that much tougher than those affairs. He ran especially well in defeat two back when he was contesting a fast pace that collapsed and stayed on for third. Then last time he finally got back to the winner’s circle after a string of minor awards. It appears that he’s in the best form of his career right now for Mike Maker and he possesses dangerous tactical speed in a race that lacks much pace. Reynolds Channel (#9) is difficult to assess, since his two attempts at this level in his last couple of starts have been mildly disappointing. More was expected of him when he dropped in class to this level in September of last year, and he just split the field while finishing a dull sixth. He did better last time off a brief freshening, but would still have to improve on that performance to beat this group. He did run well over the summer at Saratoga, and now gets an interesting rider switch to Sahin Civaci, who has ridden very well over the past couple of weeks. My top pick is Pirate (#2), who looks like the stronger half of the Jamie Ness coupled entry. He might be a little tough to endorse off his recent performances for Todd Pletcher, since he’s finished no better than third in 7 prior attempts at this level. However, he has shown some hints of talent along the way, such as when he finished third in the Grade 1 Hopeful in the second start of his career. Recently he’s been trying longer two-turn distances, but I like him cutting back to a one-turn mile here since he ran well going shorter early in his career. Yet the primary reason to upgrade this horse is that he’s been privately purchased since his last start and transferred to Jamie Ness. The Ness barn is a remarkable 19 for 51 (37%, $3.28 ROI) first off a trainer switch in dirt routes over 5 years. He also seems to do well with the higher quality stock that he ships to NYRA.
Fair Value:
#2 PIRATE, at 4-1 or greater
Sunday, January 26
David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.
TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.
PLAYS
View David's Highlight Horse for this card.
RACE 2
The two favorites figure to dominate the wagering in this $25k conditioned claimer. Both are getting significant class relief, but the public may give the slight edge to Abadin (#3), who possesses dangerous early speed. He was mildly disappointing first off the claim for Tom Morley last time, but that was a tougher race than this one. He now drops back down to the level at which he was acquired, and will be tough to run down if he produces his form for Mike Maker. That said, you could make the argument that his form has generally been slipping in the wrong direction over the past several months. Main rival Have You Heard (#6) also drops significantly after turning back in distance against a better field last time. He made a wide move before flattening out, but should fit better at this level. Most of his prior races came over longer distances, but I actually like him at this sprint distance. He just needs some pace to develop. With so much attention focused on the two favorites, Midnight Worker (#2) may slip through the cracks at a generous price. This horse wanted no part of 9 furlongs two back, but his surrounding sprint races at this level fit with this group. Last time he chased home a pair of superior rivals who enjoyed an early pace advantage, and he stayed on pretty well for third. Excluding that route attempt, his form has generally been heading in the right direction over his last several starts. He has the tactical speed to work out a good trip from the inside, and may not get the respect he deserves for low profile connections.
Fair Value:
#2 MIDNIGHT WORKER, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 4
The key to this race is massive dropdown Hey Brother (#9), who would crush this field if able to reproduce any of his prior sprint efforts. However, he went to the sidelines following a decent allowance victory at Delaware over the summer, and is now dropping into this bottom level claimer for a new trainer. The connections clearly want to give this horse away, which doesn’t make a ton of sense based on his overall body of work. I’m always going to be skeptical of runners like this and wouldn’t want to take a short price on him. If that one doesn’t show up, Devil’s Cay (#1) looks tough to beat off his last effort, where he just missed at this level while well clear of the third-place finisher. It’s hard to know where that race came from based on recent form, but perhaps Wayne Potts has gotten him back to his better efforts from the past. Neuschwanstein (#2) wasn’t able to outduel the winner despite getting a good trip contesting a moderate pace last time. He drops slightly again, but he’s failed to visit the winner’s circle despite getting class relief in each of his last two starts. My top pick is Good Reunion (#3), who is also dropping out of the same $25k conditioned claimer on Jan. 2. He’s been steadily rounding back into form since returning from a layoff in November. He made a wide middle move before flattening out two back, and last time was compromised by a slow pace in a race dominated up front. He gets a rider upgrade to Manny Franco and should receive a better pace setup this time.
Fair Value:
#3 GOOD REUNION, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 5
Chad Brown sends out two runners returning from lengthy layoffs in this maiden affair. Clare Quilty (#9) is the one likely to attract the most support after running well in both starts at this meet a year ago. However, he did go off at short prices in both of those starts and failed to get the job done for a barn that typically wins with horses that generate that kind of support. He seemed to get tired going a mile last time, so starting back up at this 6 1/2 furlong distance seems appropriate. It’s just fair to wonder if he still has much more upside, since he didn’t make his debut until his 4-year-old season, and now he’s making just the third start of his career as a 5-year-old. I much prefer the other Chad Brown trainee who figures to be a bigger price. Timing Difference (#3) kicked off his career going this distance in a $100k maiden claimer at Churchill Downs in late 2023. He got off to a slow start and was just picking up pieces through the late stages after making a wide move. He showed real progression second time out when he came to Aqueduct. Stretching out to a mile, he again broke slowly but did well to get back into the race, making a nice rally to mid-stretch before flattening out. His effort prior to the layoff was poor, but he didn’t appear to want any part of the 1 1/8 miles distance. I like him cutting back to a sprint for this return, being a son of Munnings and a half-brother to Grade 1 Hopeful winner Chancer McPatrick. Chad Brown is 7 for 17 (41%, $3.19 ROI) with horses returning from 240 to 480 day layoffs going from a route to sprint on dirt over 5 years. The other horse I would want to use with the top pick is Badge of War (#7), who had shown subtle improvement last fall in Kentucky, including a strong effort against winners two back. He built on that form when he returned to New York last time, and will be tough if able to repeat that effort. The only issue is that he’s making his 12th career start as a maiden.
Fair Value:
#3 TIMING DIFFERENCE, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 7
Likely favorite Noonzio (#5) owns the best form at this level, but he’s been mildly disappointing since an encouraging debut win last summer at the Spa. He just hasn’t really progressed at all through his recent starts, often losing ground in the latter stages of his route attempts. He now turns back to the distance at which he won his only start on debut, but I’m just a little reluctant to take a short price on a horse who just seems fairly one-paced. Clancy Fancy (#3) achieved the best last-out speed figure in this field when he broke his maiden by 6 lengths last November. However, he was very much with the grain of the track that day, as inside paths did very well, especially early in that card. His prior form is a little better than it looks, but he still has something to prove at this level. Prince of Truth (#6) put together a string of decent races here last season but the layoff is a concern for a barn that doesn’t have the best stats off lengthy breaks like this. Since the short prices aren’t terribly compelling, I’m picking Tomacon (#8) in hopes that he can find the necessary improvement turning back to a sprint distance. He ran pretty well to finish third against open claimers two back, chasing home the improving Confabulation. He then failed to sustain his bid over a sloppy track last time after traveling well early. He had run better than it looks in his early dirt sprints after slow starts, and he’s improved since then. He now draws a perfect outside post position, which should mitigate his propensity to break a step slowly.
Fair Value:
#8 TOMACON, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 8
Revivalism (#6) has run pretty well in both prior starts against maiden claimers, and now drops a little lower to this $25k level. He had been green in his early starts, but he seems to have put things together since getting ridden more aggressively at this one-mile distance. He isn’t the most trustworthy sort, but his early speed should play well here in a race that lacks much pace. Runamor (#7) makes the most significant drop in class from the maiden special weight level. He was very green on debut, breaking a bit slowly and trying to lug in through the stretch. He seemed like a horse who should have improved off that kind of performance, but instead he regressed markedly. This subsequent dropdown isn’t giving off the most positive vibes, but he’s obviously dangerous based on the debut effort. I want to give Romeo Void (#9) one more chance in his second start for Amelia Green. His form looks pretty dreadful at first glance, but he got very wide trips two and three back, so those efforts aren’t as bad as they might look. This long-striding gelding wanted no part of a sprint distance last time, but he was hitting this best stride as the field crossed the wire. He should have gotten something out of that race and now stretches back out in a more appropriate spot. He can be more forward going this distance, as he showed two back, and adds Lasix while making his second start in the barn of a promising new trainer.
Fair Value:
#9 ROMEO VOID, at 4-1 or greater
