Picks & Plays for Friday, November 27
by David Aragona
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PICKS
Race 1: 3 - 5 - 7 - 6
Race 2: 13 - 12 - 3 - 10 - 2
Race 3: 9 - 4 - 7 - 1A
Race 4: 2 - 4 - 9 - 8
Race 5: 8 - 10 - 4 - 6
Race 6: 10 - 9 - 8 - 4
Race 7: 2 - 4 - 1A - 3
Race 8: 3 - 8 - 1 - 6
Race 9: 10 - 4 - 12 - 5
Race 10: 11 - 10 - 3 - 12 - 9
PLAYS
RACE 4: RUVIES IN TIME (#2)
Spin a Yarn will be tough for this field to handle if she maintains her current form. This Finger Lakes-based runner, who is 5-for-5 at her home track, has lost both NYRA starts so far. However, each of those appearances has come against stakes company. She ran the best race of her career to lose by a half-length to the improved Officer Hutchy at Saratoga, and she got caught up in a fast pace that fell apart last time. She’s the primary speed here, and the slight cutback to 6 furlongs should benefit her. I’m using her prominently, but I do think she could face an early challenge from the improving 4-year-old Ruvies in Time. It took her a while to get her act together upon returning from a layoff this summer, but she seems to have turned a corner in her last two starts. She was beating a weak field when she won two back, but she won by 5 lengths while earning a legitimately fast speed figure. Then last time she faced a much sterner test on the class rise. Yet she again ran an improved race, stalking the pace while racing 5-wide and challenging for the lead in upper stretch before flattening out. She could be under the gun chasing Spin a Yarn from her rail draw, but she’s also capable of stalking. As long as she continues on this current trajectory I believe she’s the biggest threat to the favorite, and she’ll be a square price. The other horse that I would use at a much bigger price is Wailin Josie. She's difficult to trust as a win candidate, but this filly ran pretty well last time after her rider lost the irons in the opening furlong. She's getting a subtle jockey upgrade and has the back races to make her competitive.
Win: 2
Win/Place: 9 (smaller)
Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with 1,3,8,9
RACE 5: VANZZY (#8)
In a race as wide open as this, it’s difficult to say how the public will approach it. I suppose a couple of horses stepping up in class out of allowance races will attract some money. Lukewarm morning line favorite Basquiat was somewhat unlucky to lose his turf debut at Saratoga after getting a wide trip in a race dominated on the front end. Some may have been initially disappointed in his loss at even-money last time, but that effort looks more encouraging in retrospect, as winner Ever Dangerous returned to upset the Bryan Station at 74-1. This colt the tactical speed to be prominent throughout and isn't meeting the toughest field for a stakes. Unlike Basquiat, who is winless on turf, Price Talk has never crossed the finish line behind another horse. While he was disqualified out of his debut victory, he actually improved after that, easily being maiden and allowance company with vastly improved speed figures. This is a significant step up in class, but he’s done everything right so far, and he has the tactical speed and turn of foot to work out a decent trip even if the pace is slow. I’ll use both of these promising runners, but I’m intrigued by some others at slightly better prices. City Man has yet to win on turf, but he’s run well in all 3 starts on this surface. He was arguably best in the Transylvania this summer, just missing after a wide trip. He then ran into a better horse when Venezuelan Hug outfinished him at Saratoga. He appears to be coming into this race is strong form. My top pick is Vanzzy, who should be the most generous price of those I’m considering. It appeared that bigger targets were on the horizon after he impressively won the Jersey Derby over the summer. However, he was unfortunate to catch a pair of boggy turf courses – going that he just doesn’t handle – in his next two starts. And I would also be forgiving of his last effort in Canada, as he was facing a pretty strong group of older horses over synthetic. You can obviously make some excuses for him, so it’s reasonable to expect him to rebound as long as the turf is on the firmer side of the spectrum. Plus, his stalking running style should play well in this spot.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,4,6,10,11
RACE 6: WHYISSHESOOLUCKY (#10)
The two fillies coming into this $20,000 claimer off the best last-out efforts are Fair Lassie and Sirenic. The former won at the $10,000 level last time while earning a respectable 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure. However, she did so while setting a moderate pace against a weaker field, and this time she figures to face far more early pressure. Sirenic seems like the stronger contender, and a deserving favorite, as she drops in class after checking in fourth at the $32,000 level last time. She was part of a contested early pace and hung in well until the late stages against a superior group of rivals. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that this race will feature a fast pace, but at least she’s drawn outside the other speeds. She’s the horse to beat, but there are certainly others to consider. Given the amount of speed signed on, I want a closer. Whyisshesoolucky was defeated by Fair Lassie when they met on Oct. 8, but I think she can turn the tables on that rival. This 4-year-old filly had been in career form as of late for the low-percentage Randi Persaud barn, running deceptively well when closing into moderate paces in each of her last two starts. Notably, she was claimed out of her last race by John Toscano, whose barn has been doing quite well over the past several weeks. She’s stepping up in class, but she has the speed figures to contend here and encounters a favorable pace scenario.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 4,5,8,9
RACE 7: ZOOMER (#2)
The two betting interests that figure to attract the bulk of public support are Pete’s Play Call and the Rob Atras-trained entry of Clench and Chateau. Both Pete’s Play Call and Chateau hooked up in an Oct. 25 race at this level when Pete’s Play Call wore down his speedy rival before just getting nailed on the wire by the deep closer Last Judgment. That was going 6 1/2 furlongs, and a step beyond three-quarters of a mile is often pushing Chateau to his limit. I believe Pete’s Play Call could have a more difficult time putting away that foe here, especially with other speeds like Secret Rules and Fortune’s Fool in the mix. He’s definitely the horse to beat, but this race seems ripe for a potential upset by a closer. I think the most intriguing late runner is Zoomer. This 4-year-old gelding was in excellent form early in the year at Parx for trainer Marcos Zulueta, and it appears that he’s tailed off a bit since then. However, I think circumstances have contributed to that apparent decline. He actually maintained his form nicely upon a return from a layoff in the summer, running two of his best races when third in a tough June claimer before meeting a classy optional claiming field on July 4. Since then he’s run four times at this distance and he’s encountered slow-to-moderate paces in all of those races. That was especially true in his most recent start at Laurel. While he finished last, he never had a chance to make an impact in a race that was dominated on the front end. He obviously needs some of the favorites to regress in order to claim the victory but I think that’s a distinct possibility with Chateau in the field.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4
Trifecta Box: 1,2,4
RACE 8: ICE PRINCESS (#3)
I have no major knocks against Miss Marissa, who is probably the horse to beat as she seeks her fourth consecutive victory. I had some doubts after her surprising victory at Saratoga, but she validated that effort with an excellent performance to upset the highly regarded Bonny South in the Black Eye Susan. A repeat of either of those efforts makes her a win candidate here. The only problem is that you got $42 to win on her two back and $22 last time, and now she’s going to be one of the favorites. I’m still using her, and I certainly prefer her to a couple of others who could attract support in here. Mrs. Danvers and Thankful finished a head apart when they met in a N1X allowance on Sep. 27 at Belmont. Thankful got the better of her rival that day, but Mrs. Danvers had the tougher trip, stymied in traffic in upper stretch. Mrs. Danvers did return with a victory, but she had to work pretty hard to do so over an inferior rival while wearing blinkers for the first time. I’m concerned about Mrs. Danvers stretching out, given how headstrong she gets in her races, and I’m dubious about Thankful’s ability to step up in class. I’m actually more afraid of Gale, who comes off a smashing 13-length victory at Laurel. She gets a major class test here, but she’s bred to handle the distance and seemed to relish the dirt last time. She’s definitely on my tickets, but I wanted to get a little more creative with my top pick. Ice Princess obviously has to run faster to contend with these fillies, but I think she has a right to do so. She was progressing nicely over the winter here last year before they took a shot in a tough edition of the Fantasy. It took her a long time to get back to the races after that, but I was encouraged by her return in the Fleet Indian. She had to eat dirt sitting on the rail the whole way, but closed willingly once she found a seam in the stretch. She’s always given the impression that she wants two turns and I expect her to step forward second off the layoff.
Win: 3
Exacta Box: 1,3,8
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,6,7
RACE 9: MISS TEHERAN (#10)
Tapit Today is clearly the horse to beat as she drops slightly in class out of her win in the Grade 3 Athenia last time. She got a 3-wide uncovered trip that day, but it all worked out since the pace was slow and she was able to get the jump on a few of her main rivals. This 5-year-old mare has been steadily improving for a while now, and she’s likely to beat this field if she merely repeats that last performance. However, she will have to work out a trip from the outside post position in this 12-horse field on the inner turf, which is no small feat. She’s a deserving favorite, but I’m open to the possibility of an upset given the wide draw. However, I would not try to beat her with Myhartblongstodady, who also figures to take money. This filly is undefeated in 2020 and hasn’t lost a race since 2018, but she’s been incredibly fortunate in her recent starts. She’s enjoyed uncontested early leads in paceless races, and it seems highly improbable that she’ll get that kind of trip here. In my opinion, the right strategy in this race is to play against her. The most logical alternative to the favorite is Feel Glorious. This Clement-trained filly finished behind Tapit Today last time, but she was hindered by the slow pace of that race. She’s actually been in solid form all year but rarely gets the respect she deserves. I think she’s going to run well getting back to Aqueduct. She’s a significant part of my play, but my top pick is actually Chad Brown’s other horse Miss Teheran. This 4-year-old filly made one start in this country off a 21-month layoff, and just missed against an inferior field at Monmouth. Yet she encountered some traffic trouble, having to alter course multiple times in the lane before getting free. Third-place finisher Orglandes returned out of that last race to win impressively at Belmont in her next start. Miss Teheran showed some promise in France as a 2-year-old and I’m convinced we haven’t yet seen the best she has to offer in this country.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 4,5,12
Trifecta: 4,10,12 with 4,10,12 with 4,5,7,9,10,12
Picks & Plays for Sunday, November 22
by David Aragona
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PICKS
Race 1: 7 - 2 - 9 - 10
Race 2: 10 - 2 - 7 - 6
Race 3: 1 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 4: 7 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 5: 9 - 1 - 3 - 7
Race 6: 11 - 1 - 5 - 8
Race 7: 8 - 6 - 1 - 13
Race 8: 6 - 4 - 10 - 8
Race 9: 7 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 10: 2 - 11 - 10 - 9
PLAYS
RACE 2: FREEDOM AND WHISKY (#10)
One of the first questions you have to answer in handicapping this race is which horses you want to take out of that November 1 race at this level. That race was run over a boggy turf course, which clearly hindered some horses and aided others. I suppose Reckless Spirit is the most logical contender from that affair, but he’s a tough horse for me to endorse. He did get a nightmare of a trip two back at Saratoga, but it was his own doing as he just lost his cool early in the race. He’s a difficult horse to ride and I just don’t trust him at a short price. Shootin the Breeze and Super Wicked Charm both took advantage of a pace that fell apart and relished the going, so I’m not too fond of them. I’d rather take a horse who seemed to struggle with the footing that day, and the one that appeals to me is Freedom and Whisky. This horse barely lifted a hoof over that soft course, but prior to that he was in pretty strong form. He was just a little overmatched when facing allowance company two and three back, but at the very least he proved that his surprising maiden victory at Saratoga was no fluke. This horse had subtly improved prior to the last race and he’s just a little intriguing in a race where I didn’t trust anyone. The other horse that I suppose is somewhat logical is Elusive Ruler, and I have less of a problem with him. He earned some superior speed figures while competing against better horses for his prior barn. However, it is worth noting that he finished behind Freedom and Whisky when those two met at Saratoga on September 7, and that one is going to be a much more enticing price here.
Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,6,7
RACE 3: T LOVES A FIGHT (#1)
Funny Guy is a deserving favorite as he cuts back in distance for this New York Stallion Stakes. Seven furlongs is arguably his ideal trip, and he would be too tough for this field to handle if able to recapture his summer form. However, he does have some questions to answer after a poor showing in the Empire Classic last time. While 1 1/8 miles may be a little far for him, he had run well going that distance before and was supposed to beat today’s rival Bankit, who was second that day. Funny Guy just looked a little dull all the way around the track. I certainly respect this runner, but I’m not inclined to accept a very short price on him. The most obviously alternative is My Boy Tate, who won impressively against a softer field at Parx last time. This 6-year-old gelding also loves the 7-furlong distance, and he is an Aqueduct specialist. That said, I didn’t think he ran any better than today’s rival T Loves a Fight when they met a couple of times at Saratoga, and that one figures to be a better price in this spot. T Loves a Fight made one start during the Belmont fall meet, and I thought he showed subtle improvement despite losing. He got no pace to close into in that September 26 affair and also found himself parked wide on the turn on a day when horses racing on the rail appeared to have an advantage. This hardy 6-year-old appears to be back in career form right now, and he usually appreciates the move to Aqueduct in the winter.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,5
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3 with ALL
RACE 5: EXFILTRATION (#9)
The headline attraction in this New York-bred maiden special weight is obviously the first time starter drawn on the rail. Brattle House is a $775k yearling purchase who certainly catches a soft field for her debut. The daughter of Malibu Moon is out of a dam who won her first two career starts sprinting on dirt for Christophe Clement, and her only foal to race is stakes-placed Bourbon Bay. Christophe Clement, who co-bred this filly, is 4 for 23 (17%, $2.07 ROI) with first time starters in dirt routes over the past 5 years. If she can run at all, she’s likely to beat this group. However, she figures to be a short price and there are some others to consider. The other firster Duckphat also has credentials to win first time out. She’s out of a solid routing dam Great Gracie Dane, who is a half-sister to multiple dirt stakes winner Ostrolenka. Yet I want to try to beat the favorite with one of those horses who has experience. Exfiltration had absolutely no speed early in her debut before doing a smidgen of running in the stretch. She got no pace to close into that day and she has a pedigree that suggests stretching out should help her. That may also be a better race than it appears, as winner Vacay returned to win a stakes next time improving her speed figure significantly. Horacio DePaz is 2 for 5 (40%, $5.60 ROI) with maiden second time starters going from sprints to dirt routes over the past 5 years, and 10 for 29 (34%, $4.03 ROI) with maiden second time starters overall. She seems likely to step forward and may have found a good spot, especially if the firsters aren’t quite ready.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,3,7
RACE 7: ADVANCED STRATEGY (#8)
Sanctuary City may got favored again after finishing a solid second when bet down to 5-2 at this level just 16 days ago. Most handicappers will see that 96 Beyer and 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned for his performance in the Mohawk two back and assume he has a significant class edge over this field. However, he was very much carried along to that career-best figure due to the nature of turf racing, and I’m not optimistic that he can do much better than his performance last time. He got a great trip in that November 6 allowance and just couldn’t quite reel in Microsecond. He’s a player here, but I thought there were some alternatives that were more interesting at better prices. One of those is the new face, Austrian. This colt makes his first start against New York-breds since his career debut at Saratoga in 2019. Since then he’s raced primarily in the Midwest. While he may look a little cheap at first glance, this horse has subtly improved in recent starts, running a strong race at Kentucky Downs two back before holding his own in a tough optional claimer last time. He was privately purchased since then and is now in the barn of Danny Gargan. If he improves at all off his recent form he’s a real threat here. My top pick is Advanced Strategy. This son of Karakontie made his first start against winners last time, cutting back to 7 furlongs. While it seems like he never made an impact looking at his running line, this horse was actually in the midst of a sweeping move to challenge for the victory in midstretch last time before flattening out. I suspect that he lost some momentum and interest when pushed out to the outer part of the turf course on a day when the rails were already placed far off the hedge. I just don’t think that was the best part of the course and it hindered his run. He proved that he could handle a true route distance when breaking his maiden two back, and I think he’s dangerous here if he gets back to that kind of effort while reunited with Joel Rosario.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,6,9,13
RACE 9: SADIE LADY (#7)
The two main players in this race are exiting the Iroquois Stakes on Empire Showcase Day at Belmont. Prairie Fire just missed when closing in tandem with eventual winner Collegeville Girl, the difference between them perhaps the fact that Prairie Fire had to alter course in deep stretch. Prairie Fire is clearly in excellent form right now, but it is worth pointing out that the pace fell apart last time when she was successful. I still think she ran a superior race to the fourth-place finisher Officer Hutchy. That 3-year-old filly also lands in this spot and has obviously maintained her strong form since being claimed by Rob Atras over the summer. Yet I thought she had her chance last time, and I also believe Prairie Fire will be within range of her early in this race. I’m using both of them, but I actually think the biggest danger is Rob Atras’s other horse Sadie Lady. At first glance it might seem like she doesn’t want to go 7 furlongs, but I’d be willing to give her a shot going this far due to the pace scenario. There just isn’t any real speed in this field, and the only horse who seems quick enough to press her is her uncoupled stablemate. Sadie Lady was a disappointment when she returned from a layoff over the summer at Belmont, but some horses just prefer Aqueduct. She went on a tear last winter, winning three races in a row while flaunting her speed. I like he ambitious placement off the layoff and think she’s going to run well.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 7 with 3,5 with 1,2,3,5
Picks & Plays for Saturday, November 21
by David Aragona
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PICKS
Race 1: 4 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 2: 9 - 7 - 6 - 3
Race 3: 1 - 2 - 6 - 9
Race 4: 1 - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 5: 5 - 7 - 4 - 10
Race 6: 4 - 8 - 10 - 7
Race 7: 6 - 9 - 8 - 10
Race 8: 7 - 8 - 5 - 6
Race 9: 4 - 10 - 11 - 3
Race 10: 3 - 6 - 8 - 2
PLAYS
RACE 2: HE’S A LUCKY DEVIL (#9)
I have no major issues with Vodka Lemonade, who finished a solid second in his debut at Belmont last month. He got away with a pretty moderate pace for the distance and was ultimately no match for impressive winner Swashbuckle while just hanging on for the place. I’m using him, but he’s likely to be a short price with Irad Ortiz retaining the mount. The other logical favorite is Straw Into Gold, a homebred who debuts for Christophe Clement. This well-bred son of Hard Spun is out of a Grade 3 winning turf dam and is a half-brother to stakes winner Sea Foam as well as turf winner Kerry’s Ring. They both figure to have a say in the outcome, but I’m most interested in another horse coming out of that October 24 event at Belmont. He’s a Lucky Devil just looked like a horse who needed that debut. He rated towards the back of the pack early and launched a premature far turn move into contention before flattening out in the lane. He should gave gotten some needed fitness out of that performance and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him show a bit more speed this time. Furthermore, Jonthan Thomas is 13 for 32 (41%, $3.23 ROI) with maiden second time starters in turf routes over the past 5 years.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,6,7
RACE 4: CONVICTION TRADE (#1)
I’m inclined to bet against the potential favorite Value Engineering. This horse has some talent, but he’s been a little disappointing this year, not quite taking the step forward that was expected of him as he’s struggled to break through this allowance condition twice now. He probably was best on July 17 when moving too soon into a fast pace, but I didn’t think he had much of an excuse last time when he had dead aim at the leaders and just hung in the late stages. I’ll use him defensively but I prefer some new faces. Christophe Clement entered the pair of Arthur Kitt and Mr. Alec, both of whom are contenders. Yet both of them need to rebound from poor efforts. I slightly prefer Arthur Kitt, who returns from a layoff, as I believe Mr. Alec will attract support due to an exaggerated poor trip last time. Some others are stepping up in class out of claiming races, and the one that I find most intriguing is Conviction Trade. This horse always had ability for trainer Jorge Abreu and just found this N2X level to be a little beyond his capabilities. Yet now he’s claimed by Mike Maker, one of the top turf trainers in the country. I’m expecting him to improve, and he’ll be pretty dangerous here if able to step forward off a visually impressive win at Belmont last time. That victory was accomplished over yielding ground, and he is a horse who has proven that he handles some give in the course in prior races.
Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,5,6,7
Trifecta: 1 with 5,7 with 2,56,7
RACE 5: SIENA MAGIC (#5)
I suppose Advance Notice is the horse to beat after just missing at this level last time when bet down to 3-2 favoritism. This lightly-raced son of Curlin escaped from that impressive debut unclaimed for $20,000, but he’s failed to step forward in two subsequent starts. The mile distance may have been a valid excuse two back, but he was just a little dull last time. He failed to show any of the early speed that was on display first time out when hard-ridden to keep up, and he just never looked like a winner, ultimately passed from behind by Saratoga Pal. I suppose he’s a contender in this spot, but he’s not a horse I’d want to endorse at a short price. I prefer the runners exiting that that conditioned claimer on October 25. Money Ride won that day after getting a wide stalking trip. He clearly improved off the trainer switch to Mike Miceli and is dangerous right back. However, I’m most interested in Siena Magic out of that race. Siena Magic rarely gets the respect he deserves, but he always runs well, having never finished out of the exacta in his 6 dirt starts. He was returning from a 14-month layoff last time, but looked none the worse for the time away, showing good speed before just tiring a bit in deep stretch. I expect him to take a step forward, and it’s encouraging that he’s been claimed back by Bob Dunham, who got him to run some of his best career races races in 2019. There is other speed in this spot, but he’s been perfectly capable of stalking horses in the past, so I expect him to get that kind of trip again. I would also use a bigger price like Mister Bobby in exotics. This horse failed to win at Saratoga while the H. James Bond barn was on fire, but it seems like they’ve given him some time off with Aqueduct as the target. He ran some decent races at this level in the fall last year and would be a contender if he could get back into form.
Win: 5
Exacta Box: 4,5,7
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,10
RACE 6: WHITE FROST (#4)
There’s no doubt that Freedomofthepress is the horse to beat as she makes her second career start. This filly put in a strong effort on debut at Saratoga, just run down in the late stages by the very green but talented Lovestruck. While that race earned a strong Beyer and TimeformUS Speed Figure, horses haven’t exactly come back out of it to distinguish themselves, so I have some questions about what was behind her that day. Nevertheless, she has a right to improve as a Chad Brown second time starter and must be respected. You’re just not likely to get much of a price. I respect this favorite, but I have to take a shot against her with White Frost. I’ve been waiting for this filly to get on turf since she first showed up in the entries at Belmont. Candy Ride is a versatile sire, and her dam was a pretty good turf horse. Miss Frost was a stakes-winning miler on grass and her only other foal to race broke his maiden on the turf. I expect White Frost to step forward with this surface switch. Furthermore, she clearly has some tactical speed in a race where many of the contenders appear to be closers. I’ll primarily use her with the favorite, but I would also throw Fool Yourself into the exotics. This filly got sent off at 121-1 in her debut, but certainly outran those odds while staying on gamely for fifth despite a wide trip. She’s got some ability, and she figures to offer value again.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 8,10
Trifecta: 4,8 with 4,8 with 6,7,10,11
RACE 9: SADLER’S JOY (#4)
I understand the temptation to resist horses like Sadler’s Joy. You’re always going to be on the edge of your seat, enduring potential frustration, when betting short-priced deep closers like this. However, the truth of the matter is that Sadler’s Joy is just classier than this field, and he’s confirmed that he’s as good as ever this season as a 7-year-old. It took him a start to get going when he returned this summer, but he ran very well to cross the wire first in that Bowling Green at Saratoga going today’s distance. I can excuse his poor performance in the Sword Dancer since he just didn’t handle the boggy going that day. Then last time out in the Turf Classic, I wouldn’t be too discouraged by his loss in the Turf Classic. That race’s winner, Channel Maker, is obviously in career form and he returned to finish an excellent third in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Sadler’s Joy did get passed from behind for second in the final furlong, but that was because Javier Castellano made a premature move on the far turn in an attempt to actually win the race. I love this rider switch to Joel Rosario, whose poise and patience with horses like this should allow Sadler’s Joy to time that late move properly. I suppose his main rival is Red Knight, who was second to the favorite in this race last year. Red Knight ran well to win the Sycamore last time, but he got a great trip that day and may be slightly better over longer distances than this 1 3/8 miles. I would look to some bigger prices underneath. Postulation ran deceptively well in the 2019 Red Smith, and once again comes into this race in solid form. And even Doctor Mounty is somewhat interesting stretching out in distance. He’s never gone this far, but he’s a half-brother to Dabster, who was second in the 1 3/4 miles Marathon Stakes.
Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 3,8,10,11
Trifecta: 4 with 10 with 3,5,8,9,11
Picks & Plays for Friday, November 20
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 6 - 7 - 1 - 3
Race 2: 5 - 2 - 9 - 4
Race 3: 3 - 11 - 5 - 7
Race 4: 6 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 5: 1 - 4 - 10 - 2
Race 6: 5 - 12 - 9 - 1
Race 7: 9 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 8: 4 - 2 - 5 - 9
Race 9: 8 - 5 - 2 - 9
Race 10: 1 - 6 - 14 - 3
PLAYS
RACE 3: DREAM DOCTOR (#3)
This is a pretty strong field for the level, though one of the difficulties of this race is gauging which horses are heading in the right direction. Morocco may go off as the favorite as he drops in class and gets ridden by Irad Ortiz. At his best he’s clearly good enough to beat a field like this, but it’s hard to know what we’re going to get him from him after two poor efforts in Kentucky. I can excuse his Kentucky Downs performance when he was involved in a fast pace, but he was pretty dull last time as part of a favored entry. Abiding Star is a little more appealing to me as he takes a similar drop in class. However, at least he’s run this cheaply before, having won at this level with a 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure at Saratoga over the summer. He’s a little inconsistent at times, but he’s pretty tough to run down when he’s at his best and his speed could make him dangerous. Yet there are others to consider. Willing to Speed has a right to get back on track here as he goes from dirt to turf. He got no pace to close into going 10 furlongs in his lone turf start for Rob Atras, whose barn has begun to heat up recently. I’m using all of these, but my top pick is my old friend Dream Doctor. I was admittedly a big fan of this horse when he was competing on the New York circuit a few years ago, and he’s actually held his form pretty well while competing Maryland over the past couple of seasons. He’s now dropping in class while going out for Tom Morley, and I think he’s found a decent spot. Some may be deterred by his fourth-place finish at Laurel in that return last time, but that may have been a stronger race than it appears. A number of horses have returned out of that spot to improve their speed figures in subsequent starts, and he was hindered by being so far back in the early going. I expect a better effort this time.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,7,11,12
RACE 6: PALAMOS (#5)
I generally want the lightly-raced fillies in this maiden field. Counterparty Risk seems like a deserving favorite after closing mildly for fourth in her debut at Belmont. That was only going 7 furlongs, and she’s bred to relish much farther distances than that as a daughter of Epsom Derby winner Australia, and hailing from a stamina-laden female family. While some might have been slightly disappointed in that performance at the time, given her 2-1 odds, the race was subsequently flattered by winner High Opinion, who returned to finish a strong second in the Winter Memories last weekend. I’m using her, but I give slight preference to the other second time starter Palamos. This filly also finished fourth in her debut, competing at Keeneland. While the fractions of that race may look honest, they were actually going pretty slow up front and the race played out in a manner that favored the leader. Palamos was a little eager in the early going and finished up with interest but just couldn’t make up any ground through the stretch. She gets an extra sixteenth to work with here, and she’s supposed to appreciate added ground as a full-sister to marathon stakes winner Mrs. Sippy. Other horses to include are first time starter Niceno, who has a nice pedigree for turf, and Star Command, who ran deceptively well chasing a fast pace last time at Keeneland.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,9,12
RACE 7: PLAYTONE (#9)
The horse to beat in this competitive New York-bred optional claimer is probably Fair Regis, especially after the way Rob Atras’s horses ran on Thursday at Aqueduct. This 6-year-old mare is as consistent as they come and is just getting logical class relief after having not won a race during the pas year. She had been facing open company for all of 2020 leading up to that stakes try in the Iroquois last time, so this is a considerable drop in class as she’s risked for a tag for the first time since getting claimed in the summer of 2019. I’m using her prominently, but it’s not as if she has some massive figure edge over this field and others may possess greater upside. Fierce Lady scares me quite a bit as she moves back to dirt. This filly was back in decent form for Rudy Rodriguez over the summer and 6 furlongs is the perfect distance for her. I just worry a little that she might get outrun in the early stages, since horses like Forgotten Hero and Letmetakethiscall appear to be faster. I ultimately decided that things could fall apart a bit, so I’ve landed on Playtone. She obviously has to get faster to contend with this group, but I thought she ran pretty well to be second last time behind the runaway winner Good Credence. That race featured a pretty moderate pace, and Playtone did well to close from the back of the pack. She had always been a horse that was somewhat difficult to ride, so I was encouraged to see her run a more professional race last time and come through traffic. As long as she continues on this path, I think she can make a late impact in this race.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,4,6
RACE 9: FIERCE SCARLETT (#8)
Two of the major players, Windfall Profit and Eye of a Soldier, exit the same pair of races at Belmont. Windfall Profit arguably ran the better race two back on September 18 when she was rated behind a slow pace and forced to make a wide move into contention before flattening out. However, I would say that Eye of a Soldier may have run the superior race last time despite losing to her rival by a neck. There was no pace signed on in that October 25 affair and Eye of a Soldier just ran off on the lead, ultimately setting a faster pace than her connections intended. We’ll see if either one can work out the right trip this time, but both appear to have the ability to win at this level. I’m using them, but I prefer their older rival Fierce Scarlett. The layoff is obviously a concern, but few in this game are better than Chad Brown in these situations. Over the past 5 years, he is 23 for 66 (35%, $2.25 ROI) with 4-year-old and up horses returning from 120 to 240 day layoffs in turf routes at NYRA. A quick glance at this filly’s form may lead some to speculate that she never progressed from early in her 3-year-old season, but I think that would be a mistake. She ran much better than it appears in both starts at Belmont in the fall of 2019, as she was badly compromised by a slow pace three back and then got a poor ride two back on October 26. Her lone performance of 2020 wasn’t quite as encouraging, but she ran during a time this past spring when Chad Brown’s horses weren’t performing up to expectations at Churchill Downs. Now she’s reunited with Irad Ortiz and lands in a race that should feature a fair pace.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,5,9
Trifecta: 8 with 2,5 with 1,2,5,9,10
RACE 10: MEBS WEB (#1)
This 14-horse finale is a real head-scratcher. After the scratch of La Negrita, Well Brush Mytooth is the logical option, though a bit more of a wild card than the morning line favorite. She showed some promise early in her career, but she never really took a step forward when she returned over the summer. Now she’s making her first start off a trainer switch to Linda Rice, who was 0 for 2 with this same move from John Servis at the end of the Belmont meet. This filly has a chance, but I wasn’t exactly thrilled with taking her as one of the favorites. I’d rather go for the “now” horse and I think that might be Mebs Web. This filly’s last-out Beyer (55) and TimeformUS Speed Figure (83) are the highest in this field, and she’s far more consistent than most in this race. The problem is that she’s coming off a maiden win, but many of those maiden fields she was facing aren’t much tougher than this. She ran deceptively well two back in a race that was stronger than it appears and I thought she was really game last time. She set a fast pace in this slop and turned away all challengers to win a race that fell apart behind her. As long as Eric Cancel hustles her for position from the inside, she’s quick enough to make the lead once again, and you do generally want to be forwardly placed in these large fields on the dirt.
Win/Place: 1
Picks & Plays for Thursday, November 19
by David Aragona
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PICKS
Race 1: 2 - 4 - 7 - 5
Race 2: 6 - 2 - 9 - 10
Race 3: 7 - 8 - 1 - 6
Race 4: 3 - 6 - 7 - 5
Race 5: 10 - 1 - 8 - 5
Race 6: 11 - 3 - 6 - 10
Race 7: 7 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 8: 10 - 1 - 12 - 6
Race 9: 6 - 1 - 7 - 8
Race 10: 12 - 6 - 9 - 13
PLAYS
RACE 2: DIVIDED SKY (#6)
I feel pretty confident in likely favorite Divided Sky in this spot. This filly took a ton of money to go off at 2-1 in her Saratoga debut for Wesley Ward two summers ago. However, whe didn’t get away cleanly and then rushed up before tiring that day. She made a similar mistake at the start at Woodbine when stepped up against stakes foes, and then was put on the shelf for a long time. The good news about her return for Abel Castellano is that she appears to have gotten over her gate troubles. She broke clearly going a mile last time, but just couldn’t see out the distance after traveling keenly early. This cutback in distance makes sense, and she gets a bit of class relief. There are a lot of signs pointing in this direction, and I just can’t get behind any of her rivals. Buyer’s Remorse disappointed in her turf debut despite getting bet down to 2-1, as she was even passed by Rapido Gatta in the late stages. Perhaps she was hindered by the fact that the eventual winner showed unexpected early speed, as this filly may not be keen to pass horses. Barring something unforeseen, she figures to make the lead this time, but even that might not be enough to get her to the winner’s circle unless she improves. Perhaps the more intriguing alternative is Tea in China, who ran surprisingly well in a minor stakes on turf at Laurel last time. The favorite didn’t really show up in that spot, but she nevertheless held her own against some superior horses. It’s possible that sprinting on turf is just what she’s wanted to do all along.
Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 2,9,10
RACE 4: PERSISTO (#3)
This optional claimer for fillies and mares has attracted a pretty evenly-matched group of runners. I suppose horses like Gone Glimmering and Our Circle of Love could attract support after completing an exacta at this level at Belmont in October. However, they did so in a weak off-the-turf race, and are each stepping up against tougher company this time. Our Circle of Love does have faster races to get back to than Gone Glimmer, but she’s a question mark at 7 furlongs. I want to look at some new faces, and the most obvious of those is Flashndynamite. This admirably consistent 5-year-old has won a remarkable 11 of her 20 lifetime dirt starts and is entering this race having 4 of her last 5. She’s coming off a loss at Parx, but she nevertheless put in a strong effort, chasing the superior Portal Creek every step of the way. She handles seven furlongs and should be a forced to be reckoned with as long as she transfers her form to New York – something she has failed to do in past attempts. Jennemily also makes plenty of sense as she turns back in distance. She ran poorly in a similar spot at Saratoga in August, but she redeemed herself last time when second to the in-form Foxtail. I’m using both of them, but my top pick is Monmouth shipper Persisto. This 3-year-old filly ran well over this course last winter and she’s subtly improved since returning from a break this summer. She ran deceptively well off the layoff on August 1, nearly surviving a fast pace. She regressed a bit thereafter but she got back on track last time with a visually impressive score at Delaware. She’s run well going one turn in the past, so I’m not concerned about the slight turnback in distance.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,5,6,7
Trifecta: 3 with 6,7 with ALL
RACE 6: POP THE BUBBLY (#11)
There is limited turf form in this race, so it’s important to watch races and pay close attention to pedigrees. Of those who have already run on the turf, I’m most interested in Cara’s Dreamer and Sassy Melissa. The former may get somewhat overlooked moving back to this surface for Mitch Friedman, but she’s bred to handle grass. She was beaten by a couple of today’s rivals in her lone turf route attempt in September, but I thought she ran well within the context of that race, and she’s subsequently improved in route starts on the dirt, suggesting she may be fitter now. Sassy Melissa was a non-threatening fifth in her debut going 7 furlongs, but she ran like a horse who needed that start. She moved up in the opening furlong after a slow start and then raced keenly behind horses on the turn before striding greenly through the stretch. John Velazquez tried to work her into the clear, but she showed a tendency to lug in all the way to the wire. She should benefit from that experience and I don’t expect the added distance to be an issue. I’m using both of these, but my top pick is one of the first time turfers. Pop the Bubbly was intended for this surface first time out when she was rained off the grass on October 12. Yet I thought she ran deceptively well over a surface that she probably doesn’t relish. She was off slowly but quickly advanced into the contention on the backstretch. She then stalked the pace from the inside before having to alter course multiple times into the lane. She had plenty of opportunities to throw in the towel but she refused to quit, staying on for third in a race that has proven to be stronger than it appears. Now she’s getting on turf, which is the surface she’s bred for. War Dancer is strictly a turf influence and her dam earned all 4 of her career victories on turf. None of this filly’s siblings have yet handled turf, but keep in mind that all of them were by negative turf influence Giant Surprise.
Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 2,3,6,9,10
RACE 8: COME STORMING (#10)
This starter allowance affair seems pretty wide open. The two fillies drawn towards the inside both figure to attract support. Kitten by the Sea was curiously made the favorite in an off-the-turf race last time, but it’s not surprising that she didn’t run well given her lack of dirt pedigree. She makes perfect sense getting back on turf here, and I prefer her to Flashing Red. This Tom Morley trainee had everything go her way in her turf debut last time, as she set a slow pace against straight 3-year-olds. This is a significantly tougher spot, and she’s unlikely to make the early lead with other speed signed on. Among the short prices, I actually prefer the consistent, Princess Fawzia, who was just beaten by Kitten by the Sea. Yet I want to get a little more creative with Come Storming. This 4-year-old filly makes her first start off the claim for excellent turf trainer Mike Maker. While her recent efforts might lead you to believe that she’s off form, she never had a chance sprinting against the very quick Robin Sparkles two back. She disappointed as the favorite when dropped in for a $30,000 tag last time, but 1 1/8 miles is too far for her, and she was always wide over a course that had some give to it. She had been in strong form over the summer and I think she has a chance to rebound here if Maker can get her back to her best efforts.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,2,6,12
RACE 9: LAST OPPORTUNITY (#6)
If Duress repeats either of his last two efforts, he’s probably going to beat this field. You can’t fault him for failing to reel in the supremely talented Fiya two back when closing for second in a very fast race. Then last time he made what seemed like a winning move in upper stretch but just got tired in the last furlong over a boggy course. Now he finds himself in against a relatively soft N1X allowance field in a race that features some pace for him to close into. I’m hardly against him, but I do see one viable alternative who could get dismissed at a price. Last Opportunity makes his first start off a trainer switch to Todd Pletcher and cuts back in distance. While the barn change certainly doesn’t hurt, especially considering Pletcher’s strong start to this meet, it’s the turnback that encourages me. This horse just doesn’t strike me was one that wants route distances. In most of his turf races in this country, he’s raced keenly early, sometimes makes a middle move, and has been unable to finish. Those are hallmarks of horses that need to be cut back to sprints, and his European form would also suggest that. He debuted going 6 furlongs at Leopardstown as a 2-year-old and won impressively, closing from the back of the pack with an impressive burst of speed. Plus, he’s bred to sprint, as sire Dandy Man was a 5-furlong specialist. He, too, figures to benefit from some pace in this race, and I have to imagine that he’ll be a square price even with Irad Ortiz taking the mount. I’m just not a fan of the other alternatives, particularly Ahead of Plan, who benefited from a very soft trip last time and has other speed to contend with here.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,7,8
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with 2,5,7,8
Picks & Plays for Sunday, November 15
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 9 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 2: 4 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 3: 4 - 1 - 11 - 6
Race 4: 9 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 5: 6 - 2 - 4 - 7
Race 6: 6 - 8 - 1 - 7
Race 7: 9 - 1 - 7 - 5
Race 8: 6 - 9 - 2 - 3
Race 9: 3 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 10: 7 - 8 - 9 - 1
PLAYS
RACE 1: OUTRAGEOUS BET (#9)
A number of these horses coming out of a similar race a this level on September 24. Duncastle got the victory that day after setting a tepid pace for the distance (though that posted opening quarter of 23 1/5 is likely about half a second slower than reality). He clearly has the ability to repeat, but he may have trouble working out the same trip with New York’s Finest in this race. At his best, New York’s Finest is a superior horse to Duncastle, but he’s a need-the-lead type who probably wants to go a bit shorter than this. I expect them both to create a more honest pace, which should help some stalkers and closers. Ian Glass may benefit from that situation, but there’s another horse in here that could really be helped by some pace at a much bigger price. Outrageous Bet has subtly improved in recent starts, even running competitively on dirt twice in his last three starts. Yet turf is clearly his preferred surface. He finished seventh in that common September 24 event, but was beaten by less than 3 lengths while trying to close into the slow pace. He’s now getting a rider upgrade to Chris DeCarlo, and I think he can bridge the gap between himself and the favorites if given a fair race flow. Furthermore, he handles some give in the ground, so he won’t be hindered by a yielding course. Another runner who I’d throw into the mix is The Queens Jules. This Wayne Potts trainee hasn’t sprinted on turf much during his career, but he’s handled those opportunities well and may be coming into this race in the best form of his career.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,4,5,6
RACE 2: SHANES PRETTY LADY (#4)
This Key Cents didn’t draw as deep a field as its male equivalent, the Notebook, which was run on Saturday. However, I do think it offers a wagering opportunity, since I am totally against the possible favorite Party At Page’s. A quick read of this filly’s form might lead some to believe that she just couldn’t get the mile last time and she’ll be tough turning back to a sprint. After all, it is true that she owns the best speed figures in this field. However, she never looked like she had any run last time, even early in the race, and I think her form has actually been tailing off for a while. She never quite got back to that encouraging debut performance, even while winning a weak stakes at Finger Lakes two back. If she’s a short price here, I want others. I prefer the two Todd Pletcher fillies, both of whom are exiting debut victories. Vacay retains Irad Ortiz after winning her first start in the slop last time. While she earned a pretty slow speed figure, she did have to overcome a slow start to win. I expect she’ll run better here. Yet I prefer Pletcher’s other runner Shanes Pretty Lady. She made her debut for he now retired Gary Gullo and I liked everything I saw from her. She rated kindly in midpack and really kicked for home encouragingly once she was steered into the clear for the stretch drive. Todd Pletcher is 4 for 11 (36%, $1.96 ROI) first off a trainer switch with 2-year-olds on dirt over the past 5 years, but I don’t think he needs to improve this filly much to beat this field.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5
RACE 5: FLOWERS FOR LISA (#6)
Control Group figures to be favored here for the ever dangerous Orlando Noda barn. He’s exiting his best effort in quite some time, when he easily won a $25,000 claiming event by over 4 lengths at Belmont. While he was visually impressive in victory that day, he got away with pedestrian fractions on the front end and that’s unlikely to happen here with plenty of other speed in the field. Furthermore, he was clearly second-best to today’s rival Flowers for Lisa when they met on September 26, and I’m not about to bet him to reverse that decision at a shorter price. Flowers for Lisa seems like a major danger once again, even with some other speed in the field. He’s faster than most of these in the early going and he’s drawn well outside of front-runners Gio d’Oro and American Lincoln. He lost as the favorite at a cheaper level last time, but he got cooked chasing a very fast pace set by run-off sprinter Hushion. I expect him to rebound with a better effort despite the rise in class. Over the past 5 years, Mertkan Kantarmaci is 13 for 55 (24%, $2.40 ROI) first off the claim with horses moving up in claiming tag by 50% or more.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,7
Trifecta: 6 with 2 with 4,5,7
RACE 8: MORE GRAYTFUL (#6)
The East Coast-campaigned Baffert-trained Tale of the Union is undoubtedly the horse to beat as he makes his third attempt to break through this level after a pair of second place finishes in recent starts. He’s as consistent as they come from a speed figure standpoint and may not need to improve at all to get over the hump this time. The outside post position seems perfect for a horse with his running style. The one minor concern is the start, as he’s broken slowly in a few of his races and doesn’t have that much margin for error at this level. Main rivals Bears Mafia has been on quite a roll for this barn, winning 6 consecutive races since mid-summer with improving speed figures. While most of those victories were accomplished out of town, he did bring that form to Belmont last time, running away from a decent N1X field by over 4 lengths. A repeat of those last two TimeformUS Speed Figures makes him a major player despite the class hike here. Yet, now he’s drawn the rail whereas last time he could stalk outside. I wanted to go in a different direction with More Graytful. This 3-year-old has quietly been improving all year. He needed an off-the-turf event to win his N1X allowance condition over the summer, but he nevertheless ran well within the context of that race. He followed it up with a solid effort going a demanding 1 1/8 miles in the Albany. He cut back to a more appropriate distance last time and rewarded his connections with his best effort to date, finishing just behind Tale of the Union. He did the dirty work early, trying to soften up eventual winner Foolish Ghost, and paid the price late while never really quiting. Now gets a rider switch to Rosario and should be able to revert to stalking tactics that have worked in the past.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3,9
Trifecta: 6,9 with 6,9 with 1,2,3,8
RACE 9: VIGILANTES WAY (#3)
Speaktomeofsummer is probably the horse to beat as she drops in class of the Grade 2 Sands Point where she finished a well-beaten second to impressive European import Tamahere. Some may be tempted to upgrade her performance due to the fact that she encountered some traffic in upper stretch, but I don’t think she was ever going to be a serious threat to the winner that day. Her overall form is strong and stretching back out o the two-turn 1 1/16 miles should suit her. My only knock against her is the likelihood of a slow early pace given the lack of speed in this field. And that pace is expected to be set by Duopoly, who is getting a little class relief coming out of the Grade 3 Valley View. She was bet down to tepid favoritism that day, but her trip didn’t quite work out. They went quickly up front and she just got swallowed up by a slew of closers in the stretch. This time she figures to get a trip that will very similar to the one she enjoyed en route to victory at Saratoga two back. If she can repeat that performance she’ll be tough. Yet I prefer a new face. Vigilantes Way steps up in class, but I think this well-bred Phipps filly has run well in both career starts on turf. She was very impressive winning her turf debut at Colonial Downs over the summer, defeating subsequent stakes winner Luck Money by over 5 lengths. She got rained off the turf once thereafter, but returned to this surface with a strong runner-up finish in a salty edition of the Hilltop. That race was run over a yielding course, and she figures to catch similar turf conditions on Sunday at Aqueduct. Furthermore, she has the tactical speed to get first run on Duopoly.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5,7
Trifecta: 3 with 1,5 with 1,2,5,7
Picks & Plays for Saturday, November 14
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 11 - 9 - 10 - 2
Race 2: 6 - 7 - 5 - 8
Race 3: 4 - 1 - 10 - 12
Race 4: 12 - 14 - 13 - 9
Race 5: 6 - 12 - 1 - 11
Race 6: 1 - 9 - 7 - 6
Race 7: 5 - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 8: 10 - 3 - 7 - 4
Race 9: 3 - 10 - 2 - 4
Race 10: 6 - 2 - 3 - 11
PLAYS
RACE 3: ORIGINAL (#4)
If this race stays on the turf, the two horses with best turf experience figure to attract support. Master of the Ring ran fairly well in his first start at Keeneland, overcoming a wide draw to close for fourth. Notably, his connections entered him in the Awad after that, but he was excluded on the also-eligible list, so they obviously think highly of him. He’ll instead go in this maiden special weight event, and he figures to be tough with any kind of step forward. I slightly prefer him to Jimmy P, who was closing belatedly in his Saratoga debut, but then disappointed at Monmouth last time in a minor stakes. I think there are others to consider, including a few runners trying the turf for the first time. Chad Brown’s entrant Risk Taking would be intriguing on either dirt or turf. He finished far back in his debut, but he ran like a horse who needed the race, as he lagged at the back of the pack early, but galloped out strongly after the wire. He has plenty of turf pedigree on his dam’s side. I’d use him on grass, but my top pick is Original. This John Terranova trainee looked like a turf horse in that OBS Sales breeze in June, so it was a little surprising to see him entered on dirt first time out. He didn’t run well in that debut, but I think he’s getting on the right surface this time. Quality Road is a decent turf influence, and his unraced dam is a half-sister to G2 Manhattan winner Academy Award and G3 Nijana winner Statuette.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,6,10,12
RACE 5: THE REDS (#6)
These two-year-old maiden events at Aqueduct tend to draw strong fields, and that appears to be the case in this intriguing 7-furlong affair. The field is bookended by a pair of Todd Pletcher first time starters who appear to have been working together. The rail runner Dynamic One cost $725k as a yearling, due in large part to his classy female family, tracing back to second dam Storm Flag Flying. Irad Ortiz has the mount on him, while John Velazquez will be riding Unbridled Honor. This homebred son of Honor Code is out of a dam who is a half-sister to Grade 1 stakes winners Roman Ruler and El Corredor. Pletcher does well with these types, so I’ll be using them. However, there are some horses with experience to consider. Kid Cash showed good speed in his debut before fading to third. He’ll have to negotiate an extra furlong here, but he apparently has ability based on that initial run. My top pick is The Reds, who goes out for John Kimmel. This son of Tonalist was dismissed at 22-1 in his debut, and ran like a horse who needed the race. He was off slowly and lagged towards the back of the pack early before starting to advance on the far turn. He swung wide for the stretch drive and was finishing with real interest in a race that was dominated towards the front end. That’s proven to be a strong heat, as winner Highly Motivated returned to win a stakes at Keeneland on Breeders’ Cup weekend, and runner-up Known Agenda broke his maiden next time out. This colt gets a rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz and he figures to be charging late, as long as he gets off to a clean start this time.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,4,11,12
Trifecta: 6 with 1,12 with 1,2,4,11,12
RACE 6: BRAY (#1)
The New York-bred Graded On a Curve will make his first start against open company, but he certainly looks ready for the move up in class. He’s been a new horse since returning as a 4-year-old, earning career-best speed figures while running well in all three starts this season. He had to work harder than expected to secure the win last time, but that was a function of his rival Klickitat improving drastically. I’m using him and do prefer him to Chad Brown’s other runner Junakanoo. The evidence casting doubt on that 94 Beyer he earned two back is piling up. None of the horses out of that Saratoga race have run back to the figures they earned there, suggesting the number should be more in line with the 83 Beyer this horse earned last time. That kind of number still makes him a contender, but he could be an underlay here, especially with Irad Ortiz climbing aboard. My top pick is Bray. This 4-year-old has steadily been improving with each successive start, and that’s continued since the claim by Rudy. He had a legitimate excuse two back at Saratoga when he was wide every step of the way in a race dominated on the front end, and he didn’t get much pace to close into last time either, though still made a strong late move to get up for second. This field is arguably tougher than that one, but he’s run well over this course before and he’s supposed to get more pace to close into this time.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 6,7,9,12
RACE 7: HORN OF PLENTY (#5)
Blue Gator will seek his third victory in as many starts in this Notebook, but he has some hurdles to overcome if he’s to keep his unbeaten record intact. While he earned a speed figure that would make him competitive against this field at Finger Lakes last time, he did so in the slop in a race where his main rival completely blew the start. He clearly possesses talent, but I think he’ll face a much sterner test as he returns to the NYRA circuit. I think the horse to beat is probably Eagle Orb. He didn’t run well in the Bertram F. Bongard two back, but this three other efforts are all strong. He responded well to the addition of blinkers in the Sleepy Hollow last time, and the turnback in distance shouldn’t be an issue for him. The one concern is that he may have to rate after setting the pace last time, since there’s a lot more speed signed on in this field. I’m hoping that helps set things up for my top selection, Horn of Plenty. This gelding has to run faster if he’s to win his second consecutive start, but I liked everything I saw from him first time out. He had good tactical speed, but rated kindly in behind horses. He got a little keen on the far turn, but Dylan Davis was able to keep a lid on him until the stretch, at which point he altered course professionally and ran down the leader. This is a tougher spot, but he has the right running style and should be a square price.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,6,7
Trifecta: 5 with 4,7 with 2,4,6,7
RACE 8: SECURE CONNECTION (#10)
If this race stays on the grass, Madeleine Must and Stone Tornado are the two logical players. The latter will probably go favored as she turns back in distance for Chad Brown. While she’s earned solid speed figures in all of her U.S. starts, she’s been a bit of a disappointment, losing at short prices. I’m also concerned about her getting over a course with some give to it, as it appears that she was sent over here to get firm turf. Madeleine Must proved that she could handle this 6-furlong distance last time, closing well into a slow pace behind subsequent stakes winner Lead Guitar. A repeat of that effort makes her a contender here. I’m using them both, but my top pick is the improving 3-year-old filly Secure Connection. Turning back in distance has really worked for her, as she’s won both of her turf sprint starts this year. She made a wild late rush to get up to win a claiming race at Saratoga, and then handled a tougher allowance field at Kentucky Downs, again showing excellent acceleration in the stretch. Her improved form is somewhat obscured by a couple of off-the-turf races. Yet Shug McGaughey has good statistics with this move. Over the past 5 years, he is 4 for 11 (36%, $4.72 ROI) with 3YO+ runners going from dirt to turf sprints.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 3,4,7,12
Trifecta: 10 with 3,7 with 3,4,7,12
RACE 9: HAWKISH (#3)
Most of the discussion in this race centers around the two New York-breds Rinaldi and Therapist, who traded decisions in their last two starts. I think it’s fair to say that Therapist is a better horse than Rinaldi, but the latter may have a significant pace advantage in this Artie Schiller. Rinaldi also had the pace in his favor when he won the West Point at Saratoga, but that race was run during a time when all of H. James Bond’s horses were putting up career-best efforts, and the barn has cooled down since. Rinaldi has been successful stalking before, yet he had no late punch last time after stalking the pace of Somelikeithotbrown. He can win, but I don’t want to take any kind of short price on him. Therapist is more appealing to me, since he’s in great form and handles turf with some give to it. He probably is slightly better around one turn, but I nevertheless consider him to be the horse to beat. Yet there are others to consider at better prices. Some may find things to like about Chad Brown’s runners, though I wanted to go in a different direction. Hawkish obviously needs to turn his form around if he’s going to win a race like this. However, I do think you can make some excuses for him. Some horses just don’t care for Kentucky Downs, and he was too close to a fast pace that day with the blinkers on. He had run a decent race at Monmouth previously, and before that he had some traffic trouble in the stretch of both the First Defence and the Poker. Perhaps his best days are just behind him, but I think there’s a chance he can rebound at a price.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,10
