Aqueduct TimeformUS Race Analysis

Picks & Plays for Sunday, October 2

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 2:   1A - 5 - 9 - 10
Race 3:   9 - 10 - 11 - 3
Race 4:   9 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 5:   9 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 6:   2 - 7 - 1 - 3
Race 7:   6 - 1 - 8 - 3
Race 8:   2 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 9:   10 - 3 - 5 - 1
Race 10:   13 - 9 - 16 - 2

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 2: DUBYUHNELL (#1A)

With this race coming off the turf, I’m not trying to beat MTO entrant Dubyuhnell (#1A). This horse debuted in a strong race on closing weekend at Saratoga, with that heat coming up the fastest of three juvenile maiden races on the card. He had reportedly worked well into that race but didn’t take too much money in a race that featured a few key players with experience. He ran like a horse who needed the race, as he stalked the pace, then briefly disengaged on the turn, but found more in the lane once set down. He seems like one that is supposed to appreciate added ground, and he should be more focused with blinkers being added for the second start. Furthermore, Danny Gargan is 12 for 42 (29%, $2.43 ROI) with maiden second time starters on dirt over the past 5 years. I prefer him to the other MTO runner Kaon (#10), who didn’t do as much running in a weaker race. I wouldn’t totally discount a couple of the runners intended for turf, as Conversing (#5) and Ari Gold (#9) have some dirt pedigree and have trained well on the main track. However, both are going to get bet off their solid turf debuts and have something to prove as they switch over to the main track.

WIN: #1A Dubyuhnell, at 8-5 or greater

RACE 4: IRON LION IN ZION (#9)

I suppose Misbehaved (#4) is the horse to beat as he drops back in for a claiming tag for the second time in his career. He broke his maiden when risked for $50k two back Churchill, though he did benefit from a very fast pace that day. He was never a factor against starter allowance foes last time at Saratoga, but I can be somewhat forgiving of that performance, since he was facing tougher company. This is a realistic drop, but I do find it odd that Pletcher is putting blinkers back on after this horse ran two of his worst races with blinkers. There isn’t much speed signed on in this race, which could work against Blu Grotto (#3) as he returns from a layoff. He does have plenty of prior races that make him a contender here, but he’s fairly unreliable and this barn isn’t known for success off layoffs. I’m going with a different closer. Iron Lion in Zion (#9) is going to have to find a way to sit a bit closer to the pace here, but I do think he ran better than it appears last time out. He was slammed by another rival coming out of the starting gate before settling in mid-pack. He then launched a decent rally to nearly get up for third behind a pair of superior rivals. The third-place finisher from that affair returned to run well against a tougher field here last week with an improved speed figure. He has more upside than some others and fits at this level.

WIN: #9 Iron Lion in Zion, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 6: WASP (#2)

While Jane Grey (#1) did handle the mile last time and improved her speed figure a few points, I’m not convinced that she’s necessarily better with added distance. She also got the front end that day, and this time there is plenty of other speed drawn to her outside. She’s arguably the horse to beat after handling the slop last time, but I preferred others. Spiked (#7) makes plenty of sense as she cuts back to a mile after chasing home the undefeated Fingal’s Cave at 1 1/8 miles last time. She’s taken a step forward with each start and is an effective stalker who doesn’t necessarily need to be vying for the lead. They’re both logical contenders, but I wanted to go with a more experienced foe. Wasp (#2) doesn’t have the obvious upside of the aforementioned two, but she has been in solid form lately. I’m not going to hold her loss in the Yaddo against her, since she was put in the difficult position of dueling with heavy favorite Make Mischief on the front end. Prior to that she had run some nice races at this level. I like her running style for this race, because there’s plenty of speed signed on and she’s been effective closing from mid-pack. She also wouldn’t mind some moisture in the track, as she’s run well over sloppy surfaces before.

WIN: #2 Wasp, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 8: AMERICAN ROCKETTE (#2)

Chocolate Gelato (#4) is the filly to beat in this Frizette off her impressive maiden score in her second career start at Saratoga. She had been hyped prior to her debut on opening day, but was a little lackluster on that afternoon. She obviously benefited from the experience, as she displayed improved early speed in her second start, and ran clear to an easy victory. That said, she did get away with a pretty moderate pace last time, and now she has to deal with a few other quality speed types in here. All three runners drawn to her outside want to be vying for early command, so Irad Ortiz could be forced to use Chocolate Gelato more aggressively than the connections might like. She’s a deserving favorite, but I didn’t want to accept a very short price on her given the question marks. The Great Maybe (#6) is one of those who should be challenging the favorite early. She didn’t break that sharply in her debut, but quickly rushed up to duel for the lead. She got away at the quarter pole and ran clear to a commanding score. Like the favorite, she has to stretch out an extra two furlongs here, but she’s obviously talented. Some may also be enticed by You’re My Girl (#7) off a similarly impressive debut score, but she was beating a much weaker field of New York-breds and has to get faster. Two contenders in this Frizette exit last month’s Spinaway at Saratoga, including winner Leave No Trace (#1). She was obviously in great form over the summer, running well to win her debut before putting forth a similar effort in that stakes last time. However, she got perfect trips on both occasions and now has drawn the inside post. I’m instead interested in American Rockette (#2) out of the Spinaway. She obviously has to get faster as one of the slower fillies coming into this race. However, she severely compromised herself at the start last time when she bolted to the outside fence after the gates opened. She ultimately got back on track, but was still a little green while rejoining the field. I thought she did well to pass rivals in a race that didn’t exactly favor the closers. She has to prove she can handle added distance here, but she strikes me as one that’s still figuring things out. She also figures to get the right pace setup when plenty of speed signed on.

WIN: #2 American Rockette, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 10: ROYAL TRYST (#13)

In the likely event this race comes off the turf, it actually will transform into an interesting dirt race with plenty of Main Track Only entrants to fill out the field. That said, one of the turf-meant runners I Am the Law (#2) figures to take money off his runner-up finish at this level in his last start at Saratoga. He ran pretty well that day, setting an honest pace before settling for second. However, he’s not the most reliable win candidate, and his prior dirt races don’t exactly inspire much confidence. Corkman (#16) finished behind that rival on Sep. 5 in an even effort, but he did come back with a slightly better performance last week when finishing second against claimers. He goes out for a dangerous barn and must be considered. I think Patient Capital (#9) is a little interesting if this race stays on the turf, but he’s also one to consider on the dirt off his last performance. It’s a step up in class, but Mike Maker can be pretty crafty in these off the turf affairs. My top pick on the dirt is Royal Tryst (#13). He obviously handles wet tracks, as he’s run two of the best races of his career over wet going. His overall form is inconsistent, but he did show that he’s still capable of running competitively two back when he won the first race of the Saratoga meet. He seemingly regressed off the claim for Marcelo Arenas last time, but he had little chance to close into a slow pace in a race that was dominated on the lead. I actually like this slight turnback for him and he could get overlooked due to the low-profile barn.

WIN: #13 Royal Tryst, at 9-2 or greater

Picks & Plays for Saturday, October 1

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 2:   9 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 3:   4 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 4:   2 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 5:   8 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 6:   6 - 7 - 15 - 10
Race 7:   1 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 8:   2 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 9:   5 - 10 - 12 - 2
Race 10:   2 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 11:   5 - 8 - 6 - 3

PLAYS

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.

RACE 6
WIN: #6 Bold Journey, at 8-5 or greater

RACE 9
WIN: #5 Yes and Yes, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 10
WIN: #2 Top Recruit, at 3-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Friday, September 30

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 2:   2 - 7 - 4 - 3
Race 3:   8 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 4:   7 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 5:   5 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 6:   4 - 12 - 2 - 10
Race 7:   9 - 7 - 4 - 3
Race 8:   3 - 5 - 2 - 8
Race 9:   1 - 4 - 5 - 3

PLAYS

RACE 2: LIA MARINA (#2)

Mail Order (#7) is the horse to beat even though she finished behind a rival that she meets again here in her last start. This Mott trainee completely blew the start last time, as she hit the gate and broke over a length slowly. To make matters worse, she then quickly rushed up to take the lead, exerting far too energy in the opening quarter. She ultimately paid the price in fading to third. This time the start isn’t as critical with her drawing the outside post position. She also should appreciate the stretch-out to 6 furlongs. That said, she is a horse who has one standout speed figure and will be a short price. I do prefer her to Mischievous Dream (#3), who just picked by second by default last time in a race that may not be as strong as the speed figures indicates. I’ve never been the biggest fan of her and believe she would have to improve. The other Clement runner also needs to take a step forward, but at least Lia Marina (#2) has significant upside. She was never going to be competitive with the talented Spendarella last time, and she was game to win that stakes two back over some horses who have since improved. She started out her career as a sprinter, so this seems like a natural spot to bring her back off the layoff. I also view it as a sign of confidence that Clement had originally entered her in the Pebbles Stakes a few weeks ago before scratching in favor of this race. Strong Odor (#4) had some trouble in her last race at Gulfstream and is another that I could use underneath in her return from the layoff.

WIN: #2 Lia Marina, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 4,7

RACE 3: BAVARIAN CREME (#8)

I suppose Photon (#7) could take some money as she tries turf for the first time, but she’s not the kind of horse I want switching surfaces. She’s going to take money based on her dirt performances, and she really doesn’t have that much pedigree for grass. Succulent (#6) is the horse to beat as she attempts to earn her first official victory after crossing the wire first last time and getting disqualified. She’s been in great form for David Donk lately, but she is a deep closer who is always at the mercy of pace. Tara Dancer (#4) seems like a candidate to rebound after she got a strange trip last time. She was allowed to race in the 3-path for much of that race during a time where you wanted to be inside, and she just dropped back on the turn under little encouragement. She had run better in her debut, but did benefit from a soft pace that day. My top pick is Bavarian Creme (#8). I think she’s run better than it appears in both turf starts to date. She was compromised by a slow start and a lack of aggression when she made her turf debut on May 30. She actually seemed to handle the surface pretty well that day in closing for fourth. She finished last of 12 in her most recent turf attempt at Saratoga, but everything went wrong from a trip standpoint. She was bumped at the start and then forced to race 4-wide on the turns during a time when you had to save ground. She’s better than that and would benefit from a more aggressive ride here.

WIN: #8 Bavarian Creme, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 4: DORSODURO (#7)

I just didn’t want to default to the two favorites in this $40k maiden claimer. Actualize (#4) and Upper Level (#6) both make plenty of sense, but they’re going to take all the money as they each drop down out of maiden special weight events. Actualize has the superior recent form and makes plenty of sense off his last effort. However, he’s not the most reliable type and the connections did try to drop him in for $20k early in the Saratoga meet. Upper Level ran a race on debut that would make him awfully tough for this group to handle. However, it's odd that they went right to turf and it feels like he may have gone the wrong way since then. This barn has been having a tough go of it this year and I didn’t want to take a short price on him either. I don’t love my pick of Dorsoduro (#7), but I do think he’s a little interesting as a runner who could get ignored on the tote board. His speed figures aren’t as fast as others, but he is also dropping out of some tougher maiden special weight events. He faced good horses in each of his last two starts, and prior to that he actually raced competitively in a couple of his 2-year-old performances. Roy Lerman has solid stats off this type of layoff in a small sample, and he’s been working pretty aggressively for this return.

WIN: #7 Dorsoduro, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 6: GALATRONA (#4)

Showemyourheels (#13) would alter the complexion of this race if she got in off the AE list, because I do think she’d be the horse to beat. She arguably ran the best race of anyone exiting that common July 28 affair at Saratoga, as she got squeezed back at the start and rallied well through traffic for fourth. Like others in here, she’s been entered a few times since then, but keeps getting stuck on the AE list. Fancypants Juliana (#2) and Moonage Daydream (#10) also ran well in that July 28 affair and can improve, but I think there are some other new faces that are a little more intriguing. Ma Mi Jo Dreams (#12) switches surfaces following a dirt debut in which she flashed brief speed and faded. Freud is obviously a strong turf influence, and the dam is a half-sister to a few multiple turf winners, including stakes-placed Amazing Anne and Deciphering Dreams, who were both sired by Freud. Furthermore, Rick Schosberg is 5 for 25 (20%, $4.58 ROI) with maiden second time starters over 5 years. My top pick is first time starter Galatrona (#4). Get Stormy isn’t the best debut influence, but he is an underrated turf sire. The dam has produced 6 winners from as many foals to race, 3 of which are turf sprint winners. The best of those is 3-time turf winner Fontanafredda, who is a three-quarter sister. H. James Bond often gives his debut runners a start, but this filly has shown some speed in the mornings feels live with Joel Rosario being tapped to ride.

WIN: #4 Galatrona, at 9-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #12 Ma Mi Jo Dreams, at 10-1 or greater

RACE 7: FINEST WORK (#9)

I’ll be interested to see how the public approaches Make Mischief (#2), who is a real wild card in this lineup as she makes her turf debut in the 21st start of her career. If she merely transfers her dirt form to grass, she’ll be awfully tough for this group to handle. Into Mischief wins with an excellent 14% of his turf route starters, and all 4 of the dam’s other foals to race are turf winners. However, she’s going to take money off her dirt speed figures and those types are often bad bets. Marvelous Maude (#4) might be the horse to beat as she drops back in against New York-bred company. I won’t hold the last-place finish in the Flower Bowl against her, as that was Plan B once the Yaddo was rained off the turf. She’s moved forward with nearly every start, and will be tough if able to build on that open N1X victory from earlier in the Saratoga meet. I think the 9 furlongs suits her, but I don’t love the likely price as Irad Ortiz rides for Chad Brown. Finest Work (#9) finished just behind that filly when they met in that July 30 affair, but I thought she ran just as well in defeat. She had to briefly pause when attempting to rally between horses in the stretch and was finishing well late. She’s been in excellent form all year for George Weaver and seems to be handling any added distance they throw at her. I’m hoping Manny Franco can work out a stalking trip. I would also use Runaway Rumour (#7) if the price is fair. She has lost 10 races in a row since winning the first 3 starts of her career, but I thought her last race represented a significant step in the right direction. She just barely lost to Vigilante’s Way, who is superior to any runner she meets in this lineup. I also like the rider switch to Prat.

WIN: #9 Finest Work, at at 5-1 or greater
USE: 7

RACE 9: DIAMOND HANDS (#1)

Marketsegmentation (#5) was impressive in her career debut last December, earning a strong 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That number makes her competitive here without much improvement needed. She has to overcome a 10-month layoff, but this barn does have fantastic numbers off this kind of layoff. My one knock against her is that she did get an absolutely perfect trip on debut, and is stepping up into a tougher spot here. I actually think her Chad Brown stablemate is a little more interesting at a better price. Salimah (#4) was visually impressive in her Tampa debut earlier this year. She was off for a long time after that, but didn’t run as badly as it seems in her return last time. She got rank in the early stages and then proceeded to get floated wide around both turns. She never had a chance given the ground loss and may do better here second off the layoff. However, I can’t get past the likely pace advantage for Diamonds Hands (#1). I actually think she deserves to be favored here, and I’m not sure that will be the case with Marketsegmentation in the field. She ran very well when she was left alone up front last time, just getting run down by Bahamian Club, who came back validate that performance with a solid third-place finish in the Pebbles. Diamond Hands also ran better than it appears two back when she got the wrong trip, setting the pace inside during a time when closers had an advantage on that course at Belmont. For a 12-horse field, there really isn’t much pace signed on, and she’s just supposed to get clear early from her advantageous inside post position.

WIN: #1 Diamond Hands, at 2-1 or greater
USE: 4

Picks & Plays for Thursday, September 29

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 2:   7 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 3:   4 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 4:   3 - 6 - 7 - 5
Race 5:   1 - 6 - 8 - 5
Race 6:   7 - 2 - 5 - 8
Race 7:   2 - 8 - 6 - 5
Race 8:   8 - 9 - 3 - 5
Race 9:   8 - 9 - 11 - 3

PLAYS

RACE 4: BIG Q (#3)

My primary opinion in this $25k claimer is that I want to play against the Jose Camejo entry of Viradia (#2) and Alpine Queen (#2B). Many will just assume they’ll improve off the claim since Camejo has had a great deal of success with this NYRA starters and he’s named top riders on both. I just don’t need a short price on horses who are little hard to like based on form. U Guys Are No Fun (#7) makes some sense as she drops in for a tag for the first time in her career. However, she’s been a bit of a disappointment on dirt, and I’m not convinced that she’s a natural sprinter. She’s also being ridden by a jockey who has limited success on this circuit. My top pick is Big Q (#3). She ran poorly last time out as the favorite, but she’s getting a trainer upgrade out of that race, as she was claimed by Jose D’Angelo. This barn hasn’t started that many runners in New York, but does well off the claim out of town. She has plenty of prior races at a higher level that would make her competitive here. I also expect her to get an aggressive ride from Luis Saez in a race that lacks a clear pace scenario. The other horse I’d use from that same race is Shadolamo (#6). I think it’s interesting that the connections are reuniting her with Jackie Davis, who rode her well earlier in the year. She’s more pace dependent than my top pick, but she’s run well in each of her last two dirt sprints.

WIN: #3 Big Q, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 6,7

RACE 6: FOUETTE (#7)

This optional claiming turf sprint seems fairly wide open, and I’m somewhat against the horse who I’ve pegged as the morning line favorite. Hit the Woah (#5) figures to attract some support off her victory at the N2X level last time. However, she got a great setup that day, just tracking the pace in a race where the heavy favorite was compromised by rushing up to lead after a poor start. I’m not thrilled with her prior form and want others. My top pick is Fouette (#7). She made her turf debut in the Smart N Fancy last time at Saratoga and significantly outran her 37-1 odds to finish sixth, beaten less than two lengths. Linda Rice has been intending to get her on turf, entering and scratching her from the Caress prior to running in that stakes last time. While she got a pretty good trip, I liked the way she fought on along the rail through the lane finishing in tandem with some rivals who would be short prices against a field like this. She has good tactical speed and is drawn well outside this time. I would also use Keeper of Time (#2) on the turnback in distance. She hasn’t gone quite this short in any of her U.S. starts, but I thought she ran well at 7 furlongs in the Glen Cove last fall. The turnback could work for her, and she figures to be a decent price.

WIN: #7 Fouette, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 2

RACE 8: AFFABLE MONARCH (#8)

Golden Alchemist (#3) could go favored in this N1X allowance affair. He looks pretty formidable if you draw a line through his last race, where he disappointed in a Grade 3 at Parx. Some horses just don’t perform over that track, and he never really got involved in the race that day. His maiden victory in July was excellent and he’ll be tough to beat if he builds on that performance. I’m just not so keen to simply dismiss the last race of a horse who is going to be a short price. Todd Pletcher sends out two of his main rivals in Gasoline (#5) and Up to the Mark (#6). I’ll be interested to see if they both run, since they possess similar running styles. Gasoline is proven at the distance after breaking his maiden going this far last time, though he got a perfect setup in doing so. Winit (#9) easily defeated Gasoline when he broke his maiden in July at Belmont, earning a speed figure that makes him formidable here. However, he failed to back up that performance last time at Saratoga. He did have an excuse that day, as he was off a step slowly and rushed up while getting too keen after that. I think he’s a candidate to rebound here at a better price. Even if Pletcher scratches one of his runners there appears to be enough pace in here to set up a late closer. Affable Monarch (#8) comes into this NYRA start a little light on speed figures, but I think he be ready for a step forward. This horse showed promise as a 2-year-old, impressively winning his debut before immediately stretching out in distance. He was slow to come around when he returned from a layoff this year, but his last few starts have been heading in the right direction. I thought he ran particularly well last time when overcoming a moderate pace to just miss. He seems like one that’s crying out for 1 1/8 miles and Manny Franco should be a good fit for this grinder.

WIN: #8 Affable Monarch, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 9

RACE 9: LEFTEMBEHIND (#8)

I have no problem with the two experienced runners who are likely to attract support in this spot. Uncle Marty (#11) is logical off his narrow loss late in the Saratoga meet. He ran like a typical Linda Rice firster who needed his debut before improving with the switch to dirt in his second start. He didn’t earn much of a speed figure that day, but did close nicely and can build on that performance. Deliberate Risk (#9) is perhaps a bit more interesting as he makes his first start against New York-bred company. He faced some very good rivals in his California debut. Three of the top 4 finishers have returned from that race to improve their TimeformUS Speed Figures by anywhere from 10 to 34 points in their next starts, including runner-up Hejazi, who ran a 117 in the fastest maiden race of the year. Deliberate Risk obviously finished far back, but Jack Sisterston’s runners often need a start. There are plenty of first time starters with appealing pedigrees if looking beyond those with experience. The one who interests me most is Leftembehind (#8). Barclay Tagg isn’t known for debut success, but he can certainly have a first time starter ready to debut on dirt. This $130k son of Accelerate is the first foal out of a dam who was a multiple stakes-placed sprinter in California. I like the way this horse has been working leading up to this and expect him to show up with a good effort. He also could get dismissed at a fair price given the presence of a few firsters with more appealing profiles and pedigrees.

WIN: #8 Leftembehind, at 6-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Sunday, September 25

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 2:   1 - 3 - 5 - 7
Race 3:   6 - 2 - 9 - 5
Race 4:   1 - 2 - 6 - 4
Race 5:   3 - 2 - 10 - 6
Race 6:   3 - 10 - 8 - 11
Race 7:   5 - 8 - 11 - 3
Race 8:   3 - 2 - 10 - 1
Race 9:   1 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 10:   4 - 2 - 8 - 5

PLAYS

RACE 1: BLANCHIMENT (#4)

I primarily want to focus on the maiden special weight dropdowns in here, and the one that I find most appealing is second time starter Blanchiment (#4). She finished far back in her only start, but that was a very fast race won by subsequent stakes winner Maple Leaf Mel. She actually did some running on the backstretch to pass half the field after a slow start, and then flattened out. While she was passed by today’s rival Joey the Fish (#6) in deep stretch, I thought Blanchiment did more running than that foe overall. She’s now getting logical class relief and should strongly factor here with a clean break. Darknstormy (#2) exits a maiden special weight race late in the Saratoga meet. She had some traffic while lugging in though the stretch, so perhaps adding blinkers and drawing the rail will help. I preferred these with experience to a few of the first time starters, especially those that could take money like the half of the Repole entry.

WIN: #4 Blanchiment, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 2

RACE 3: MY LIPS ARE SEALED (#6)

Spungie (#2) feels like the horse to beat even though she failed to hit the board as the favorite last time. She was coming off a long layoff that day, and was also never inside during a period of time when the rail was a significant advantage on the inner turf course at Saratoga. She has superior prior form and will be tough if able to bounce back to one of her better efforts. However, I slightly prefer My Lips Are Sealed (#6) from that same race. Rob Atras trainees typically need a start coming off layoffs, but this mare ran quite well off the bench. She contested a fast pace while racing in the two-path, always off that advantageous rail. Now she cuts back a sixteenth of a mile, which figures to help her, and she looks like the main speed. I much prefer these two to Home for Christmas (#1), who could also take money exiting that Aug. 14 affair. She rode the rail for almost her entire trip. Some will focus on the fact that she briefly head to pause in mid-stretch, but she had a lot work in her favor prior to that. The one other horse who interest me a bit at a much bigger price is Masterof the Tunes (#9). She lands in a tough spot, as she’s racing above her eligible N1X condition. However, she ran better than it might appear last time after working out a wide trip and encountering traffic. She can pick up some pieces if any pace develops.

WIN: #6 My Lips Are Sealed, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 2,9

RACE 5: RIPE FOR MISCHIEF (#3)

If I’m going to take anyone from that Aug. 27 affair at Saratoga, I want it to be horses that were forwardly placed, as that race completely fell apart. Kreesa (#6) and Empire Sky (#5) both closed to get into the trifecta and are sure to take money off those performances. However, they each benefited from the hot early pace and I’m not sure how much running either one actually did. Kreesa is probably more appealing given his obvious upside as a second time starter, but he’s also going to be the shortest price. I prefer Ripe for Mischief (#3) from that race. He got a strange trip, as he was ridden hard to challenge the leader early before backing off on the turn. He then came again at the end and lost his path right at the wire, though that late trouble didn’t significantly alter the result. This horse interests me because he also ran better than it appears in his prior starts. Three back he set a very fast pace that fell apart and last time he got a wide trip chasing another quick pace. However, I do also want to look beyond those exiting that Travers day maiden event and consider a couple of new faces. My Slick Nick (#2) might be placed too ambitiously on the class rise, but I’ve been waiting for him to try the turf. His dam was strictly a turf horse and he looks like one that should move up on this surface. He also has the speed to be forwardly placed in a race that doesn’t feature that much pace. The other interesting runner is Racey Type (#10), who also tries turf for the first time while switching into the Asmussen barn. He’s by good turf influence Freud, and is a half to one decent turf horse.

WIN: #3 Ripe for Mischief, at 9-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #2 My Slick Nick, at 20-1 or greater

RACE 6: TRIPLE START (#3)

There is some guesswork to be done in this two-year-old maiden special weight event. Chad Brown entered a pair of first time starters, but will only go with Kaw Liga (#8) , who looked the weaker of his two runners based on their dirt workouts. He has the better pedigree for grass as a half-brother to turf stakes winner Cavalry Charge. This $600k purchase for Peter Brant does appear to be spotted appropriately. I’m more interested in those with experience. Coach Petro (#11) figures to take money now that he's drawn into the field from the AE list. However, I thought he got a great trip last time and probably should have won that race given his experience going in. Determinedly (#10) drops back into maiden company after trying a stakes last time. Yet I was expecting a better effort from him that day. It wasn’t the strongest race for the level and he just lacked late punch. He did have some trouble two back, but he also had the pace in his favor that day. I’m going in a different direction with first time turfer Triple Start (#3). This son of American Pharoah was meant for turf on debut, but stayed in once the race was rained onto the dirt. He put in a game effort to challenge the winner a couple of times before fading in the stretch. He strikes me as one that should improve on turf given his pedigree. Though he is a half-brother to Persistently, a Grade 1 winner on dirt, his second dam Heavenly Prize proved to be a strong turf influence as a broodmare. He’s also a half-brother to Double Jackpot, who has been a good turf producer as a broodmare. I liked the one grass workout that I saw up in Saratoga, and think he can step forward in his second start.

WIN: #3 Triple Start, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 8: THISMIGHTBETHEONE (#3)

Kelly Breen sends out a couple of fillies making their first starts off the claim, both exiting strong barns and coming off last-out victories. Train to Artemus (#8) exits the stronger performance, having run a field off its feet last time en route to a 3-length score. However, the margin would have been closer if the runner-up hadn’t blown the start that day.Crowding Out (#10) might be a little more reliable off her last performance, though she was facing a weak field that day and inexplicably failed to show up two back. I ultimately wanted to look for some alternatives. Abuse of Power (#2) makes sense as she takes her second crack at this condition. She ran fine first off the claim for Horacio De Paz last time when perhaps used a bit too much early in the race. She earned a strong speed figure for her victory two back and will be tough with a repeat of that performance. My top pick exits the same race, but finished farther back. Thismightbetheone (#3) looks a little light on the speed figure scale coming into this, but she’s in better form than it appears. She rode the rail in her May 14 performance at a time when you didn't really want to be inside on the inner turf course at Belmont. Then two back she clipped heels, losing all chance early in the race. And last time out she found herself so far back early due to a bad stumble at the start before making a decent late run. I think she’s dangerous if Prat can finally work out a trip for her.

WIN: #3 Thismightbetheone, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 2

RACE 10: ELLE EST FORTE (#4)

Likely favorites Transient (#2) and Blue Times (#8) finished second and third, respectively, in a similar race at this level on Sep. 2 at Saratoga. Both ran well off layoffs that day, and have a right to improve with races under their belts. I feel the distance is a more natural fit for Transient, but Blue Times does possess dangerous early speed in a race lacking pace. They’re the two horses to beat, though I could also use Lisheen (#5) from that same race. She was never on the rail and did run well going this distance when she broke her maiden last year. The horse who figures to take some money who I don’t want is Myriskyaffair (#6). She got a pretty good trip to be third last time in a race that was dominated towards the front end. However, I don’t think she’s run particularly well on turf despite earning competitive speed figures. I’m going in a different direction with Elle Est Forte (#4). I wouldn’t use this filly’s last race as evidence that she can’t handle added distance. She just seemed to get lost in mid-pack over that quirky Kentucky Downs course, and sustained some hard bumps in the lane before flattening out. Her prior form was solid and she gets a rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz. She’s a grinding type who seems like one that could be suited by the added distance.

WIN: #4 Elle Est Forte, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 2,5,8

Picks & Plays for Saturday, September 24

by David Aragona

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 6 - 8 - 1
Race 2:   7 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 3:   2 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 4:   7 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 5:   3 - 4 - 7 - 6
Race 6:   5 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 7:   7 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 8:   3 - 4 - 2 - 7
Race 9:   1 - 2 - 7 - 8
Race 10:   5 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 11:   5 - 8 - 3 - 9

PLAYS

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.

RACE 3
WIN: #2 Evvie Jets, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 4
WIN: #7 Must Be Love, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 5
WIN: #3 Sister Linda, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 9
WIN: #1 Anejo, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 11
WIN: #5 Capital Gal, at 9-5 or greater

Picks & Plays for Friday, September 23

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 1 - 2 - 9
Race 2:   2 - 7 - 6 - 1
Race 3:   1 - 7 - 4 - 5
Race 4:   8 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 5:   9 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 6:   8 - 9 - 10 - 4
Race 7:   5 - 7 - 10 - 8
Race 8:   7 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 9:   10 - 11 - 9 - 2

PLAYS

RACE 1: IMPLICATED (#5)

Chad Brown sends out a strong duo in this opener, topped by likely favorite Hay Stack (#1). She was bet down to 2-1 favoritism in her debut, but was pretty green through the stretch. She appeared to have some run, but was trying to lug in under Irad Ortiz. She appears to have ability and will be tough to beat if able to produce a more professional effort this time. However, I prefer Chad’s other runner Implicated (#5) at a bigger price. This filly didn’t make up any ground, but stayed on nicely in her dirt debut behind a couple of talented Mott trainees. She had trained well on turf prior to that race, but it’s not surprising that Brown gave her a chance on dirt as a daughter of Connect. She possesses a versatile pedigree and moves like a horse that may appreciate this surface switch. I also expect her to show more speed on the stretch-out under Prat. There are a few first time starters to consider, the most interesting of which might be Just a Splash (#2). She only sold for $116k overseas despite being a daughter of top European sire Sea the Stars. She’s actually inbred 2x4 to that one’s dam, the great producer Urban Sea. She goes out for a barn that has had some debut success this year and the turf pedigree is obviously there.

WIN: #5 Implicated, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 2: BOSS CARA (#2)

Dame Cinco (#6) figures to go favored here as she makes her first start off the claim for Jose Camejo, who is 15 for 46 (33%, $2.89 ROI) with that move over the past 5 years. She earned a strong speed figure last time, but I didn’t love the way she was drifting through the stretch while beating an inferior group. It’s unclear if she’s as proficient sprinting as she is going longer, and there is plenty of other speed signed on. One of her main rivals is Beautiful Karen (#7), who is getting significant class relief after facing a better group of New York-bred allowance foes last time. She ran poorly in her return from the layoff, but was compromised by a stumbling start. I won’t be surprised if she fares better against this softer field for a barn that has been firing lately. My top pick is Boss Cara (#2). She also comes off a poor effort, but was badly overmatched in that open N1X allowance condition. Now she’s dropping to a realistic spot, and there’s plenty of speed signed on to set up her late run. She earned competitive speed figures against tougher company two and three back, and should be charging late if Eric Cancel can work out a trip. The price also figures to be fair given the low-profile connections.

WIN: #2 Boss Cara, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 4: BIG ENGINE (#8)

There is definitely some speed signed on in this New York-bred optional claimer, which certainly doesn’t hurt the chances of likely favorite Who Hoo Thats Me (#1). He seems pretty logical off his runner-up finish at this level last time, but his form is pretty exposed at this point and I’m not sure the cutback to 6 furlongs necessarily helps him. He’s somewhere in my play, but I thought others might offer better value. The two fastest early pace types in this race are drawn just outside of him. Excellent Timing (#3) held on pretty well for third behind the favorite last time, but this time he has to deal with Foolish Ghost (#2) on the front end. That Rudy Rodriguez trainee seems like a threat to wire the field. He battled on gamely last time against tougher company despite getting outrun to the lead by a classy foe. He figures to be aggressively handled from the inside and may be heading back in the right direction after a slump. Majority Partner (#6) also figures to be forwardly placed, but at least he’s drawn towards the outside. He was even more dominant than the 5-length margin would indicate last time when beating N1X foes, as he contested a very fast pace before opening up on the field. He’s moving up in class, but is in great form right now. The closer that I find most interesting is Big Engine (#8). His recent form has been a little spotty, but he showed signs of life last time, closing resolutely behind a pair of classy claiming foes. He had to put in a sub-24 final quarter to get up for third that day in what was the best performance he’s put forth since winning a race here last February. He might be turning things around for a barn that looks like it’s waking up from its Spa slump. Trevor McCarthy has ridden him well in the past and retains the mount.

WIN: #8 Big Engine, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 1,2,6

RACE 7: CONSTITUTIONLAWYER (#5)

Chad Brown trainee Orchestration (#7) is the one to beat as he makes his second start off the layoff. He was finishing well at this level last time and I’ve always thought he was one that would appreciate this kind of stretch-out in distance. He’s very logical, but I doubt he’ll be much of a price for these connections. He only finished a nose in front of today’s rival Shawdyshawdyshawdy (#8) when they met on July 30. He did validate his improved form last time when running on well for second behind a gate-to-wire winner. However, the added ground is a new obstacle. There are a few 3-year-olds in this field stepping up to face older rivals, and I think a couple of them merit strong consideration. My top pick is the longshot Constitutionlawyer (#5). This colt showed some affinity for turf when staying on for third in his first attempt on grass in July. He got a good ground-saving trip that day, but was finishing well at the end. The result wasn’t as positive last time, but he simply got the wrong trip that day. He became rank in the early stages and was forced to race extremely wide around both turns during a time when the rail was the best place to be on the inner course. He’s better than he looks and doesn’t give the impression that added distance will be a problem. Analogy (#10) is another 3-year-old who was compromised by a wide trip on the inner course at Saratoga last time. He has some prior races that put him in the mix, and I won’t be surprised to see a change of tactics to a more aggressive style with Flavien Prat climbing aboard.

WIN: #5 Constitutionlawyer, at 8-1 or greater
USE: 7,8,10