TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 4

President Z (#8) is arguably the horse to beat as he drops in class, now in for the $16k tag after having not raced for a tag less than $32k since coming into the Rick Dutrow barn. His best effort will obviously beat this field. However, he was mildly disappointing against a soft field for the level at Monmouth last time, and needs to rebound for a barn that's been a little chilly in recent months. High Tide (#3) has done his best work going longer, but did run effectively sprinting in March and has shown improved tactical speed recently. He's also dropping down to a slightly lower level, and it doesn't hurt to pick up Joel Rosario. I'll try to beat these two with a speedier sort. I don't totally trust Divine Leader (#7) to repeat his decisive win against optional claiming company at Tampa two back when he was going out for a different barn. Yet he didn't get his preferred trip when he came to Aqueduct last time. He was off a step slowly, tried to rush up, was forced to rate, and then lost his path in upper stretch before fading. He should have a better chance to get forward position breaking outside with the aggressive Ricardo Santana getting aboard. He's dropping into a much easier spot after facing the likes of repeat winner Gun It last time, and should be a fair price.

Fair Value:
#7 DIVINE LEADER, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 6

There's very little dirt form in this off-the-turf event, and the only horse I have any confidence will get a mile on dirt is Kismeholdmethrlme (#9), who drops in for a tag on dirt for the first time. He actually ran pretty well – relative to this group – going this distance back in March, and then got steadied badly into the clubhouse turn when he tried to go 1 1/8 miles in his next start. A repeat of either of those efforts will probably put him in the winner's circle here, and he gets a rider upgrade to Javier Castellano. Eighty Gold (#14) did get a very wide trip when finishing third on this surface two back, but his pedigree hardly instills confidence that he'll be better at a mile. Uncle Barrie (#2) was game to stay on for fourth last time, by far the best effort of his career. He could factor if he repeats that effort, and should be the best price of the trio I would consider.

Fair Value:
#9 KISMEHOLDMETHRLME, at 3-2 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

The two favorites in this maiden claiming opener don't do much for me. Farm House (#1) gets needed class relief and has run a couple races that could win here, but she's not the most reliable sort and is coming off a poor effort. She also strikes me as a filly that doesn't love racing inside of horses, so the rail draw may not be ideal. Calling an Audible (#2) really didn't have an excuse last time when she had dead aim at the winner and just hung in the late stages. She's had her chances as an 0 for 15 maiden but she obviously fits here on her best form. I want to try to beat this pair with Immigration Law (#3). It took this filly a few starts to figure things out, but she put forth a solid effort two back when settling for second behind the improving Ah Ca Ira. She wasn't as successful last time, but got shuffled back from her rail draw and was running on too late. She has more early speed than that and can post a minor upset if she works out a better trip this time.

Fair Value:
#3 IMMIGRATION LAW, 3-1 or greater

RACE 7

Tiberius Mercurius (#2) could vie for favoritism here on the basis of his narrow loss as the $12,500 level last month. He finished in a photo with Khafre that day, lunging at the winner right at the wire, and the field may have been slightly tougher than this one. His 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure arguably does make him the horse to beat, but he achieved that performance going 1 1/8 miles around two turns. Now he's being asked to cut back to a one-turn mile, and I'm a little concerned that he may get outrun early in a race that doesn't appear to feature much early speed. I much prefer main rival Winter's Ghost (#1), who may be finding the right spot as he makes his third start off a layoff. He returned from a four-month layoff in early May, and flashed his typical early speed before fading in an unusually fast race for the level. He moved up in class against tougher last time, but was curiously wrangled off the pace by Flavien Prat, who rarely takes speed away from horses when they break well. Winter's Ghost still ran on strongly late despite the unfamiliar trip, finishing like a horse who might have had more to offer. He figures to go back to aggressive tactics here under Ricardo Santana, and should play out as the main speed from this inside post, as the TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates. In my view, he is clearly the most likely winner. The other primary horse I would consider is He's Got This (#7), who has been claimed back by the same owners who had him two starts ago, this time with Ilkay Kantarmaci instead of Jamie Ness. His form has tailed off over the winter, but he is dropping to the lowest level of his career. I could also throw in Active Duty (#8) if he's a fair price. He has generally met weaker company in conditioned claiming races, but was game to win last time and can get a piece of this. I'll mostly use them underneath my top pick.

Fair Value:
#1 WINTER'S GHOST, at 9-5 or greater

RACE 8

Macaw (#9) could go favored now as the lone Linda Rice runner left in the field after the scratch of Trade Imbalance. He was chasing wide against a minor rail bias last time. Yet he's never gotten back to the two fast races he ran for sharp barns early in his career. I didn't think he was getting much class relief here despite the drop in claiming price. Prince of Truth (#6) is hard to trust since getting claimed by a low-percentage barn, but he is dropping down in class out of two much tougher races. I didn't love the way he was finishing last time, but he was extremely wide on the turn. The price should be fair enough to throw him in. My top pick is Brave Bear (#8). This colt put in a gritty effort last time when contesting a fast pace every step of the way and refusing to yield until the very late stages. He had been banging his head against the wall facing tougher company for much of the winter, but seemed to respond favorably to the class relief last time. He's the one horse I want out of that race at this level, as a few of them return in this spot. I actually like the slight stretch-out in distance, and the outside post should benefit him.

Fair Value:
#8 BRAVE BEAR, at 3-1 or greater