Picks & Plays for Sunday, February 21
by David Aragona
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PICKS
Race 1: 2 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 2: 2 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 3: 8 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 4: 7 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 5: 4 - 6 - 1 - 2
Race 6: 2 - 1 - 5 - 7
Race 7: 5 - 4 - 1A - 9
Race 8: 4 - 7 - 2 - 3
Race 9: 10 - 3 - 7 - 5
PLAYS
RACE 2: MARKET ALERT (#2)
Storm Shooter will be tough for this field to handle if he repeats his last effort, in which he finished second in the Rego Park Stakes, earning a career-best 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He was no match for stablemate Perfect Munnings, but he held well after setting the pace. While it might seem like that number came out of nowhere, do note that he didn’t get a comfortable trip in the Notebook two back, as he was shuffled back on the far turn. He possesses superior early speed and is drawn well outside of main pace rival The King Cheek. However, he faces a worthy rival and is likely to be a shorter price than his form really merits. I prefer likely second choice Market Alert. He showed promise in his career debut, coming from off the pace to win in a professional score. He initially had trouble finding his footing against stakes company, but he seemed to figure it out last time. He was part of a contested pace in that $250k stakes, yet he put away the other speeds (including today’s rival The King Cheek) before just getting run down in the last sixteenth. That game performance resulted in an excellent 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure, boosted due to the quick early fractions. Now he’s getting class relief as he drops into this thinner optional claiming event. Plus, he doesn’t have to be ridden so aggressively, which should allow Vargas to work out a perfect stalking trip. I’d also use Horn of Plenty underneath, as he was against a rail bias in the Gander last week, but it’s somewhat troubling that he hasn’t stepped forward since his debut.
Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 3,4
RACE 4: BLOOD MOON (#7)
No Lime is the horse to beat in this competitive N3L claimer in his second start off the claim for Linda Rice. He won his first start for his barn last time, defeating a weaker field following an unorthodox trip. He was steered very wide immediately after the start, then darted to the rail to save ground, was briefly held up in traffic, but found room along the inside late. In the end, things worked out for him, so I wouldn’t necessarily upgrade that performance. Yet he might not have to step forward much to beat this field even as he moves up in class. I prefer him to other horses who could take money, like Icy Dude and Mine the Coin. I’m interested in some other alternatives. Vitesse is somewhat interesting off his trip last time. He veered out badly at the start into another horse, knocking them both off stride. He was far back after that incident and merely passed tired rivals late while only under light pressure. He did win two back, but the form of that race has not held up very well, so there’s some doubt about his overall quality. I’m instead opting for a class dropper. Blood Moon has been banging his head against the wall facing much tougher company in his recent starts. He actually ran reasonably well going this distance back on Nov. 7, but since then he’s struggled to make an impact. However, his last effort wasn’t as bad as it seems, since he was compromised by a slow pace and still ran a competitive 91 TimeformUS Speed Figure. I’m not at all concerned about the drop in class down to $14k because these connections claimed him for a similar price and just got too ambitious.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,6
RACE 6: CAUSE TO DREAM (#2)
Likely favorite Maracuja was understandably bet down to 4-5 last time in a race that appeared to be particularly weak for this level. However, she never looked to be traveling that well and had no punch in the stretch. She’s a little hard to like here off that effort, but it has to be noted that she ran so much better in her career debut. She was very green in the early going of that Dec. 20 debut and was running strongly down the center of the track late on a day when you were better off racing inside. If she could build upon that effort, she’ll be tough for this field to handle. Though, she figures to be a short price and there’s not much pace to close into once again. I prefer runners to the inside. Becca’s Wish was away from the gate very awkwardly in her debut, lunging at the start before rushing up into fourth on the backstretch. She never really made an impact thereafter, but nevertheless earned a solid speed figure in what turned out to be a fast race. However, runbacks from that event have been a mixed bag. The top two finishers returned to do very poorly, though third-place finisher Mo Desserts won her next start by 15 lengths. Jeremiah Englehart is 15 for 75 (20%, $2.38 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. My top pick is Cause to Dream. This filly didn’t look fully prepared for that debut, as she showed brief speed before fading badly. It was a completely different story last time, as she took a big step forward. While she faded to finish fourth beaten 7 lengths, that effort was a lot stronger than the result indicates. Jan. 31 was a day when the rail was dead, and this filly was inside throughout and driven down to that rail path in the lane. The fact that she was able to achieve an 85 TimeformUS Speed Figure given that trip is fairly remarkable. She certainly ran better than today’s rival Despeight All Odds. Some may hesitate due to the low-profile human connections, but this filly can run.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,7
Trifecta: 2 with 1,5 with 1,5,6,7
RACE 7: PERCEIVED (#5)
Advance Notice has lost all 5 of his attempts at this level since breaking his maiden, but most of those have been good efforts. He’s displayed remarkable versatility since breaking his maiden, showing proficiency over distances ranging from 6.5 to 9 furlongs. This one-turn mile should hit him right between the eyes, and indeed, he seemed to run well going this trip last time. He as no match for an impressive turn of foot from Doubly Blessed, but he nevertheless stayed on well for second. Now lands in a spot that doesn’t feature that much early speed, so he should get a great trip on or just off the early lead. He’s the horse to beat, but I prefer a runner who finished just behind him last time. You could have claimed Perceived for $40k out of his win on Jan. 2, but his new connections waited and paid $140k following that victory at the Paul Pompa dispersal sale. He failed to return dividends on that investment last time, as he disappointed as the favorite behind Advance Notice. He just looked a little dull every step of the way, unable to produce the turn of foot he displayed for Chad Brown two back. However, he was attempting to close into a slow pace in a race dominated up front. He obviously has better races in his form that could beat this field. And it’s been unwise to go against the duo of Linda Rice and Eric Cancel lately. Over the past 30 days, that team is 10 for 22 (45%, $2.86 ROI). He’s my top pick, but this race is also open to some others. Tiergan makes his first start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez, who is especially dangerous in these situations. And Dust Devil was impressive beating claimers last time, as he gets a class test here. Yet both of those would need some pace up front, and that may not develop.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,9
RACE 8: MALIBU STAR (#4)
Family Biz seems like the horse to beat despite moving back up in class. He appeared to be back in top form off the claim for Linda Rice last time as he closed from far back to get up to win a very strong race for the level. Notably, runner-up Limonite returned to win his next start with a 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Family Biz’s overall form has been a little inconsistent, but he’s clearly this good when he’s at his best. Furthermore, he projects to get the right trip in a race where the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. I’m not against him, but I do think there are some others to consider. Among those who figure to contest the pace, I’m most interested in Daddy Knows. Like the favorite, he’s moving up in class out of a claiming event – and an even cheaper one at that – but he put in an exceptional effort to win that race. Daddy Knows contested a fast pace going this distance and turned back multiple challenges to hold off the closers late, earning a win that was much better than the half-length margin would indicate. The 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned was actually a slight step back from the 118 he achieved in his prior start, suggesting that he’s ready for this class hike. I’m using both of these runners prominently, but the runner that I find most intriguing is Malibu Star. This well-bred colt looked like a future stakes winner when he broke his maiden here in December, earning a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure to defeat his stablemate. For whatever it’s worth, he was privately sold following that start, as was runner-up Citizen West (who returned to bomb at the Fair Grounds). Malibu Star was understandably bet down to 9-5 for his first start against winners last time, but he was uncharacteristically dull, never getting involved before getting eased in the stretch. Clearly something went awry, but at leas he’s now coming back in jus 4 weeks, suggesting that whatever issue plagued him may have been sorted out. He also sports an impressive 58 3/5 bullet workout last week, the fastest of the morning at that distance by over 3 seconds. I expect him to rebound, but there are some lingering questions about his form.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3,7
Trifecta: 4 with 2,7 with 1,2,3,7,8
Picks & Plays for Saturday, February 20
by David Aragona
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PICKS
Race 1: 1 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 2: 6 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 3: 5 - 2 - 6 - 4
Race 4: 6 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 5: 7 - 6 - 1A - 5
Race 6: 7 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 7: 8 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 8: 5 - 2 - 3 - 8
Race 9: 3 - 6 - 5 - 2
PLAYS
RACE 5: LEMON DROP ROAD (#7)
The touted $1 million yearling purchase Will E Sutton was quite the disappointment in his debut here just 12 days ago. He was a little lukewarm on the tote board, going off as the narrow second choice, and he ran like a colt that needed a start. He was fairly professional through the early stages of the race, but hung on his left lead for too long in upper stretch, just never really accelerating at any point. Stretching out to a mile should help this son of Curlin, but he’s going to have to improve and do so quickly if he’s to break through here. Jonathan Thomas is 4 for 19 (21%, $2.30 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt routes over 5 years. I’m using him, but I prefer the other second time starter Lemon Drop Road. There was plenty to like about this ridgling’s debut. He didn't take much money, going off at almost 9-1, suggesting that he wasn’t cranked to win that day. He actually broke with the field and briefly was chasing the leaders before greenly dropping back under a heavy drive on the backstretch. He continued to travel greenly on the turn, but seemed to finally get on track late, finishing well down the center of the course. His pedigree indicates that he should handle anything from sprints up to a mile. Furthermore, Jimmy Jerkens is 5 for 23 (22%, $5.34 ROI) with maiden second time starters going from sprints to dirt routes over the past 5 years. I could also use a horse like Exalted Charm, who faced better at Gulfstream in his debut, and firster I Am the Law, a grandson of the undefeated Pepper’s Pride. But I prefer the outside runner.
Win: 7
Exacta: 7 with 1,5,6
RACE 6: HEIRLOOM KITTEN (#7)
Supreme Aura figures to go favored here even after his entrymate Its All Relevant comes out, as that one will race on Sunday instead. He’s moving up in class after finishing second in his return from the layoff last time. While that was just a $16k claiming event, it was one that featured many dropdowns, so it was a bit tougher than most races at that level. This horse earned a respectable 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure, and he has a right to take a step forward as he switches into the barn of Rudy Rodriguez, who has excellent statistics first off the claim in dirt routes. I also wouldn’t so readily dismiss the horse who finished right behind him last time. Runabout stayed on well for fourth in that spot and may get somewhat ignored here as he goes first off the claim for Amira Chichackly. However, I’m veering in a different direction for my top pick. Heirloom Kitten was simply in over his head against tougher N1X allowance foes in most of his starts at that level. He was never going to land a serious blow against horses like Forza Di Oro and Our Last Buck in his starts at the end of 2020. He dropped in for a $25k tag last time and ran well to win, coming from just off the pace to get up for the victory over a speed-favoring track. He’s now been claimed by David Duggan, who is a solid 4 for 21 (19%, $3.10 ROI) first off the claim over the past 5 years. He’s moving up in class, but his speed figures indicate that he’s a strong fit here, and he should work out a favorable stalking trip.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 7 with 1,2 with 1,2,3,5
RACE 8: SHANES PRETTY LADY (#5)
While this Maddie May is a New York-bred stakes event, the race is not short on expensive fillies and regal pedigrees. (Oddly enough, Shanes Pretty Lady is the only horse among this crew who is by a stallion standing in New York.) Brattle House could go favored here as she makes the second start of her career. This $775k daughter of Malibu Moon absolutely towered over her foes in her November debut. She is an imposing physical presence, and she just dominated that race on the front end. However, the speed figure wasn’t particularly fast and the waters get much deeper for this second start of her career. She also has to contend with a layoff, as she spent the last few months training in Florida. I’m using her, but I’m reticent to lean on her at a short price. Furthermore, the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, with stretching-out sprinters Irish Constitution and Secret Love likely to show speed inside of her. I want to go with horses who are proven at route distances. One of those is Frost Me, who comes off a solid allowance victory at this trip. She’s versatile enough to stalk the pace and seems to be improving with each start. Yet I’m most intrigued by the horse who finished just behind her last time. Shanes Pretty Lady was hindered by a tepid early pace when she lost to Frost Me, and then she was badly compromised by her trip last time on Jan. 31. That was a day when the rail was utterly dead at Aqueduct, as horse after horse who wandered down to the inside met their doomed fate. Shanes Pretty lady, to her credit, actually finished better than most racing on the rail, as she closed for third, albeit flattening out late. I think she’s better than her recent form indicates, and it would appear that added distance is helping this daughter of Bellamy Road. As long as some pace develops up front, I expect her to come charging late at a square price.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,7,8
Trifecta: 5 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,7,8
RACE 9: OUCH OUCH OUCH (#3)
Warfront Fighter may finally get the job done in start number 13, but he’s had his chances at this level. He does appear to be in the best form of his career right now, and he has a slight edge over this field if others fail to step forward. Yet he’s gotten pretty good trips in his recent starts and he’s just not the most appealing option at what figures to be a short price. The two alternatives that seem most interesting exit the same race. Both Kith and Ouch Ouch Ouch competed in a tougher $40k maiden claiming event on Jan. 31. Kith finished some 13 lengths ahead of his rival that day after racing somewhat greenly. This son of Uncle Mo has run reasonably well on dirt before and seems like a viable alternative to the favorite. Yet I’m willing to give Ouch Ouch Ouch a pass for his poor performance last time. As mentioned above, Jan. 31 was a day that featured a dead rail, and this gelding was right down in that inside path for the duration of his trip. Given how much better he fared in his only prior start, I’m willing to believe that the bias was a legitimate excuse last time. If he can bounce back with a better effort, I think he has a reasonable chance to upset the favorite.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,6
Picks & Plays for Friday, February 19
by David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
PICKS
Race 1: 3 - 6 - 1
Race 2: 3 - 1A - 2 - 7
Race 3: 5 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 4: 7 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 5: 3 - 7 - 4 - 5
Race 6: 7 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 7: 4 - 7 - 2 - 8
Race 8: 7 - 3 - 8 - 2
PLAYS
RACE 2: WICKED TITLE (#3)
Lottie’s Mizzion is the horse to beat as she moves up in class following a fairly easy victory at the N2L claiming level last time out. This filly had shown some promise when she broke her maiden last fall and was hardly disgraced despite getting beaten a long way by subsequent G3 Go For Wand winner Sharp Starr in a New York-bred allowance event. While the drop in class last time was fairly drastic, this is where she belongs. She got to stalk a moderate pace last time before taking over, and she figures to encounter yet another favorable setup here. The TimeformUS Pace Projecotor is predicting that she could be on the lead in a scenario favoring the front-runner. As long as she holds her form off the claim for Charlton Baker, she’ll be tough to beat. Yet I want to take a shot against her with her main rival Wicked Title. This filly already has experience at this $14k N3L level where she’s run well. She was a little unlucky to lose her first try for this condition on Nov. 12 when she made a strong late rally to just miss after going wide on the turn. She didn’t get a particularly comfortable trip two back, but she rebounded nicely last time. She was hindered by an awkward start in that Jan. 15 race, and was further compromised by trying to close over a racetrack that was favoring speed due to windy conditions. All things considered, she did well to get up for second in a race that featured a slow pace and she likely would have won if given a fair trip. I’m not overly concerned about the stretch-out to a mile, and she has more tactical speed than she’s displayed in recent starts.
Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 1,2,7
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3 with 2,4,7
RACE 4: HALF DAY PAM (#7)
Likely favorite Tellaperfecttale didn’t take much tote action in her debut, but her effort was fairly encouraging. She traveled well on the rail, overcame a bit of traffic at the quarter pole, and rallied decently for third. That performance did come for a different barn, and Bruce Levine does not have strong numbers off trainer switches. That said, although Luis Cardenas did nothing wrong last time, it certainly doesn’t hurt to pick up Kendrick Carmouche. She merely has to repeat that 77 TimeformUS Speed Figure and she’ll be tough for this field to handle. That number looks totally legitimate, as both the second and fourth place finishers from that race returned to win with solid figures. Her main rivals are also second time starters. One who figures to attract some support is Doyouknowwhoiam. This filly put in a gritty effort against open company in her debut at Saratoga last year, showing good speed from her rail draw before just getting nailed at the wire. In retrospect, that wasn’t the strongest field, but she certainly has a right to improve with maturity. Linda Rice is an excellent 27 for 78 (35%, $2.67 ROI) with maiden second time starters in dirt sprints over 5 years. I’m using her, but my top pick is Half Day Pam, who is the second time starter who figures to be the best price. She took a little money in her debut into the face of odds-on favorite Bustinmygroove. She was a little slow into stride early, drafted in behind horses on the turn while taking kickback, and just stayed on mildly through the lane. It wasn’t a terrible effort, and that race has proven to be a strong one for the level. Runner-up Bustinmygroove returned to win, and third-place Dramatic Twist also won next time out against maiden special weight foes while improving her TimeformUS Speed Figure by 7 points.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,5
RACE 5: SARATOGA BEAUTY (#3)
It will be interesting to see if the public is willing to give Blitchton Lady a second chance after she disappointed as the 4-5 favorite last time. While she was competing at a higher level that day, she was beaten soundly by today’s rival Buyer’s Remorse, unable to parlay a perfect trip into victory. She was running back on relatively short rest on that occasion, and now Mertkan Kantarmaci has given her a bit more time. Yet she’s still hard to trust even as she drops in class. I’m most interested in the fillies exiting the Jan. 24 race at this level won by Cadeau de Paix. Stunning Munnings achieved the best result that day, checking in third, but she got a great trip, stalking the pace along the rail. I prefer those who finished behind her. Left Leaning Lucy was prevented from putting forth a true effort due to trouble at the start, as she was shuffled back to last a few strides out of the gate. Closing into the fast pace allowed her to pass a few rivals late, but she’s generally more effective racing near the early lead. I’m using her, but my top pick is Saratoga Beauty. She, too, was bumped after the start and then didn’t seem totally comfortable rating in behind horses while taking kickback. She refused to settle for Eric Cancel, traveling keenly into the turn. She eventually worked her way into the clear for the stretch drive, but wasn’t able to kick on. It was nevertheless a solid return to the NYRA circuit, building on her decent Laurel form against cheaper company. I think this filly has subtly improved, and now she makes her first start for a very underrated trainer. Over the past 18 months at Aqueduct, Ralph D’Alessandro is 9 for 25 (36%, $5.76 ROI) with horses that get sent off at odds of 10-1 or less. If this filly can settle better in the early going of this race, I believe she’ll produce a more effective finish.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,7
RACE 6: GUN HILL GIRL (#7)
I suppose Timed Out could go favored again despite losing as the 1-2 choice last time in her first start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. The first inclination may be to give her a pass for that performance, as she still finished second at this same level. However, she was facing an unusually weak field last time and is undoubtedly stepping up class here to meet a far deeper cast of characters. She could get the right pace setup and perhaps turning back to 6 furlongs will be to her benefit. Yet I have some doubts about the quality of the field she beat at Monmouth two back, and want to look elsewhere. I’m most intrigued by last-out maiden winners. Shaker Shack and Shesadirtydancer both won races at the $40k maiden claiming level, earning similar speed figures. The former arguably has more upside in just her third career start, having won that race off a layoff. But Shesadirtydancer may just be improving at the right time, as horses who finished behind her have generally come back to do well. I’m using both of them, but my top pick is a filly who won for a cheaper tag. Gun Hill Girl was facing a weak field last time, but she won that race far more impressively than the 1 1/2 length margin of victory would suggest. Though it’s not noted in the chart comments, she broke slowly last time and was turned sideways coming out of the gate, spotting the field multiple lengths. That was especially detrimental for a filly who had shown speed in her only prior start. Most inexperienced horses would just give up at that point, but she launched a wide, seemingly premature rally on the far turn to take the lead at the quarter pole. She got a little leg weary late, but she had a right to tire given that trip. I think she’s capable of better and she should be able to run faster given a clean start.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,4,5