TimeformUS Analysis will return on Friday, April 28
TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona will not be providing analysis for Sunday, April 23. Analysis will return with the start of the Belmont Park meet on Friday, April 28.
TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona will not be providing analysis for Sunday, April 23. Analysis will return with the start of the Belmont Park meet on Friday, April 28.
by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card's Highlight Horse and PPs.
RACE 5: ROLL TIDE ROLL (#4)
Despite its relatively small size, this is one of the most competitive fields on the card, as you can make a solid case for just about any of the six runners. Gentrify figures to be dangerous given that Pace Projector is predicting that his status as the lone front-runner in the field will give him an advantage. After all, his last race is better than it seems, considering that he was off slowly and had to rush up to secure the early lead. He's the horse to beat, but I think others will offer better value. My top pick is Roll Tide Roll, who makes his first start off the claim by Chris Englehart. His last race is also not as discouraging as it appears, since he was forced to race four wide for much of the run around the far turn after getting shuffled out of position on the backstretch. He actually did well to nearly regain second at the wire. I expect him to show more speed under Mike Luzzi this time.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5,6
Trifecta: 4 with 1,5 with ALL
RACE 6: HELDATGUNPOINT (#1)
The horse to beat is Source Control, who will probably win this race if he repeats his last effort. The first-, second-, and fourth-place finishers all returned to significantly improve their speed figures in subsequent starts, suggesting that it was a stronger race than it originally appeared. I strongly prefer him to the likely co-favorite, Skeet Shot, who has run slower races against weaker fields. While I respect Source Control, I'm also intrigued by longshot Heldatgunpoint. He is also coming out of a deceptively strong race. He was making his debut that day, and was ridden like a horse that probably needed a start. Joel Rosario really didn't ask him for much until they were well into the stretch, at which point he actually finished up decently. A number of horses have already run back out of that race to improve, and this runner certainly has room to move forward.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Box: 1,10
RACE 7: CLUTCH CARGO (#1)
Jacala was made the morning line favorite as he faces New York-breds for the first time, but I'm not sure that he's getting any class relief as he steps up out of cheaper races. He's a contender, but I prefer local horses such as Mr. Harlan and Prophet's Cat, who both ran well at this level late last season. Their form may be strong, but neither are really winning types, so I want to take a shot against them with the lightly raced Clutch Cargo. He broke his maiden stylishly at Belmont last fall and then was never given a chance when he resurfaced against winners at Aqueduct. That November race featured a very slow pace, and Clutch Cargo was taken far back early before trying to rally through traffic in the stretch. He's better than that, and I expect an improved effort in his 3-year-old debut.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,7,10
RACE 8: FROSTY GAL (#2)
Noble Freud is a half-sister to talented New York-bred sprinters La Verdad and Hot City Girl, and she showed that familial propensity for speed in her dazzling debut effort. Also-rans have returned out of that race to confirm the lofty speed figure assigned to it. However, she's going to have to deal with the speedy Bluegrass Flag on the front end, and I have to imagine that these two will hook up early in what is basically being billed as a match race. If the pace heats up, I think that opens the door for the runner that I believe to be the only horse with a real upset chance, Frosty Gal. I know that she appears to be too slow, but she's more talented than her form suggests. She had serious trouble when racing greenly in her second start, and then put it all together last time, coming through along a dead rail to register an easy win. She's been working very well down at Gulfstream, and Barclay Tagg has surprisingly strong numbers with dirt runners that broke their maidens last time out. According to DRF Formulator, he is 4 for 14 (with 9 runners finishing in the money) for a $5.87 ROI in such situations over the past five years.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,6
Trifecta Box: 2,4,6
RACE 9: RADIAL FLYER (#9)
I know I'm getting a little creative with this selection, but hear me out. You can basically ignore Radial Flyer's dirt races, because he clearly is not a fan of that surface. He got a ridiculous ride from an apprentice in his turf debut in Florida last year. Then, in his only turf start for the Ed Barker barn, he worked out a wide trip after getting carried out on the clubhouse turn. That was a stronger effort than it seems. Now, he's shown improved speed in his dirt races since then, and he is projected to be in front early in a race that doesn't feature much speed. I don't know if he's good enough to win, but I do believe this longshot can vastly outperform his odds in a wide open race.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,5,11
Trifecta: 1,2,5,11 with 1,2,5,11 with 9
by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card's Highlight Horse and PPs.
RACE 1: LOYAL HEART (#4)
The two runners with the best recent turf form are Bareeqa and Lillie's Answer, who both are shipping up from Gulfstream Park for capable barns. I respect both of these contenders, but I think there's an intriguing longshot in this race who could get dismissed at a generous price. Loyal Heart has not run on turf in quite some time, and those efforts are not strong enough to make her competitive here. However, she also wasn't much of a dirt horse back then either. In recent months, she has vastly improved her form, and she is coming into this race off two of the finest efforts of her career. She's always been cut out to handle turf given her pedigree, and once upon a time, it appeared that turf might be her preferred surface. The Pace Projector is indicating that she can control the pace in a race lacking other front-runners.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,6,8
RACE 3: WINGMAN (#5)
Markitoff is probably the horse to beat off his Saratoga debut against tougher company, but he hasn't been seen in many months, and Linda Rice's numbers off lengthy layoffs are mediocre. I'm taking a shot against him with first-time turfer Wingman. While this runner's pedigree isn't screaming turf, there are certainly enough grass influences to suggest he can handle this surface. He is a half-brother to Divine Park (notably, the sire of grass superstar Lady Eli) and is related to a turf winner. Wingman's return to the races last time was a better effort than it appears given that he was off slowly and stymied in traffic for much of the running. He got clear too late in a race that was dominated by inside speed.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,9
RACE 4: NO ENTIENDO (#4)
Condo King figures to go off at a very short price, and it's no secret that his better efforts absolutely would crush this field. However, I have some serious questions about this runner's current form. He hasn't been seen since last August, and Rudy Rodriguez does not do particularly well in these situations. According to DRF Formulator, over the past five years, he is just 1 for 11 with a $0.38 ROI when bringing horses back off layoffs of 180 days or longer and starting them for claiming tags of $20,000 or less. (Only one other horse in that sample even hit the board.) Instead, I'll take a shot against him with No Entiendo. This Gary Gullo trainee got a ridiculous ride last time, as he was unwisely rated in the early going and ended up going five wide around the far turn, losing all chance. Now he gets a positive rider switch to apprentice Hector Diaz and figures to be more forwardly placed.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,6
RACE 6: MARKET SENTIMENT (#2)
If he's the one that Linda Rice elects to start – both of her runners have Cornelio Velasquez named to ride – then morning-line favorite Do Share is clearly the horse to beat as he attempts to win his fifth race out of his last six starts. While I certainly respect him, I'm more interested in one of his rivals who figures to go off at a more attractive price. Market Sentiment has been in excellent form since returning to the races for Rick Violette last fall. After two facile wins against weaker company, he stepped up to this level in his last two starts. Two back, he was chasing a pace that collapsed in a race dominated by subsequent graded stakes winner, Whitmore. He actually did well to nearly battle back for third in that spot. Then, last time, I felt that he was not ridden aggressively enough and ended up getting caught behind some tiring runners coming off the far turn. Despite having to wait for room, he actually finished well down the center of the track behind the in-form duo of Spartiatis and Still Krz. Drawing the rail this time, I'm hoping that new rider Manny Franco uses his speed to at least gain some better position. At his best, I believe he can beat this field.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,6
Trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with ALL
RACE 7: OUT OF TROUBLE (#4)
Addictive is going to be a very short price off her visually impressive score against open company at Tampa Bay Downs in her debut. However, she did not beat a strong field that day, and she's going to have to show better early speed to be competitive in this spot. I feel that she's going to be an underlay, so I want someone else. My best idea is Out of Trouble, who is projected to control the pace up front. Her turf races are actually better than they seem, considering that she was cooked in a fast pace in the Chelsey Flower and then encountered traffic trouble in November at Aqueduct. Her recent dirt races suggest that she may have improved since then.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,6
Trifecta: 4 with 3,5,6 with 1,3,5,6,9,10
by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card's Highlight Horse and PPs.
RACE 4: RESILIENT ONE (#6)
Runners like Comet Sixty Two and Nisharora look like the most reliable options in this race. Nisharora is the less consistent of the two runners but has been facing much tougher company in her recent starts and gets a needed drop in class here. Comet Sixty Two was somewhat successful for these connections last season and is looking to get back on track after a couple of layoffs. The only problem with these runners is that neither one possesses much early speed, and there is a notable lack of pace in this race. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that should favor horses racing on or near the lead. One of those is predicted to be La Inesperada, but she's lacked her usual early zip in recent starts and brings questionable turf form to the table. Therefore, I'm taking a shot with the other likely speed, Resilient One. This mare could prove to be a useful claim for David Cannizzo, who picked her up for a bargain price tag in February. She was languishing in cheaper dirt races over the winter because she's just not particularly effective over that surface. However, her prior turf form was consistently strong, and a return to anything close to those efforts makes her a serious threat here.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,5,7,11
RACE 5: NUT NUT (#8)
Mo Focused was installed as the morning-line favorite, but I'm strongly against this Todd Pletcher trainee. He had no real excuse to lose against a weaker field at this level last time, and his form has been steadily tailing off since a decent debut effort. In my opinion, the true horse to beat is Nut Nut, and I'm looking forward to playing this horse at what should be a square price. He ran competitively against some tougher fields over the winter and is in much better form than it appears. He was outrun in the early stages two races back while facing an unusually strong maiden-claiming field. Then, last time, while he didn't quite get the two turns, he actually did well to hang on for fourth despite racing on a dead rail for much of the way. I love the cutback to one turn for this horse, and I believe that one of his good efforts will beat this field.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,2,5,6,7
RACE 6: ST. LOUIE (#1)
He's certainly not going to be a huge price, but St. Louie just appears to be a very likely winner of this race. He has held his form very well ever since he won over this course last fall. Don't be discouraged by his sixth-place finish at Gulfstream last time since he had a nightmarish trip. He looked to be full of run coming to the top of the stretch, but Paco Lopez could never find a clear path for him, and St. Louie was under stout restraint while racing in traffic for the entire stretch run. He might have actually won that day had he ever gotten through. Now he finds himself in a spot where his tactical speed should come in handy since the Pace Projector is predicting that he's quick enough to be racing in front early in a situation favoring the leaders. Mike Maker is especially dangerous over the Aqueduct turf course. Over the past five years, he is 10 for 35 (29 percent) for a $4.36 ROI when sending out non-maidens over the Aqueduct turf.
Exacta: 1 with 2,5,7
Trifecta: 1 with 2,5,7 with 2,5,7
RACE 7: ZEALOUS SCHOLAR (#5)
Tiznow's Smile is a deserving favorite, but she does have some questions to answer as she returns from a layoff. Her best effort probably would beat this field, but Charlton Baker has said that this is just a spot to get her started before stretching her out again. I'm against the other runner likely to take money, Overnegotiate. She has been disappointing in her recent races, and others have more room for improvement. Instead, I'm most interested in the likely early leader, Zealous Scholar. There isn't that much speed in this race, and the Pace Projector is predicting that this filly will be clearly in front early in a situation favoring the leader. Zealous Scholar has been involved in fast paces in each of her three starts. That was especially true last time, when she put away her early pace rival before getting swallowed up by the closers late. Not only was she against the race flow that day, but she was racing on a dead rail. This filly is in better form than it appears, and she has a clear TimeformUS Speed Figure edge on this field. If she can get the seven furlongs, she can win this race at a decent price.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,6,7
Trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with ALL
by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card's Highlight Horse and PPs.
RACE 4: RUN BLONDIE RUN (#3)
Relentless Miss is the kind of Chad Brown runner that is going to take plenty of money in this spot. While Brown does do well with lightly raced runners, I was somewhat surprised to find that his numbers in this specific situation are fairly mediocre, at least by his lofty standards. According to DRF Formulator, when dropping turf runners from maiden special weight to maiden-claiming races in their second start, he is just 3 for 16 over the past five years, with an ROI below $2.00. I’ll instead lean towars her chief rival, Run Blondie Run, who has put in stronger efforts than the co-favorite on a few occasions. She might have won over this course three races back had she not been badly fouled in the last eighth of a mile. Since then, she's run well at Gulfstream, including a decent fifth last time after setting a strong early pace (indicated by red color-coding in PPs). Her trainer, Bill Mott, gets a 100 TimeformUS Trainer Rating when teaming up with Kendrick Carmouche.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,6
RACE 5: STORMY PRINCESS (#6)
Stormy Princess was ambitiously placed in a competitive starter-allowance race last time. While she was never going to win that race, she certainly was not helped by the aggressive rating tactics employed by her rider. Stormy Princess broke alertly and was contesting the lead, at which point Eric Cancel decided that she would be better off rallying from off the pace. Rather than continue her forward momentum, he gave up valuable position as he wrangled her back, and ended up losing ground around the far turn anyway. She passed a few tired rivals in the stretch, but her race was basically over at that point. Now she drops into an easier spot and gets a rider switch to Manny Franco. Michelle Nevin gets a strong 97 TimeformUS Trainer Rating second off the claim.
Win: 6
RACE 6: FIVE STAR RAMPAGE (#4)
I suppose that Three Eighty Eight is the horse to beat, but I was not enamored with her effort last time. She should have put up more of a fight in the stretch when attempting to chase down Time Squared, yet she ended up losing ground to that foe late. Three Eighty Eight’s trainer, Linda Rice, has been firing on all cylinders lately, so I respect anything she's sending out. However, this filly is not going to be much of a price this time, and I think she's vulnerable. Beyond her, the options are limited. Abounding Spirit and Frostie Anne have both run competitive speed figures, but did so against much weaker competition. Therefore, I'm going to try to beat them all with Five Star Rampage. I know that there's no guarantee that this filly can get the one-mile distance, but Jimmy Jerkens has especially strong numbers in this situation. According to DRF Formulator, he is 9 for 38 (24%) for a $2.24 ROI over the past five years when sending out horses stretching out for the first time on dirt. Her recent form is slightly better than it appears and she's getting a positive rider switch to John Velazquez.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3,5
Trifecta: 3,4 with 3,4 with 1,2,5
RACE 7: BATTLEMENT (#7)
There is quite a bit going on in this interesting feature race. Chad Brown holds a strong hand as he sends out the two shortest prices on the morning line, but both of his runners have some questions to answer. Volatility Index was visually impressive when breaking her maiden by nearly six lengths at Gulfstream, but she did so against a fairly weak field for the level and gets a major class test here. I have similar concerns about War Queen, who was closing well last time, but is also stepping up in class slightly out of a subpar Gulfstream allowance race. I'm trying to beat that pair with Bill Mott's recent import Battlement. This Juddmonte homebred has a pedigree that suggests we have not yet seen the best of her. She is very nearly a full sister to Suffused, who has become a multiple graded stakes winner for these same connections since making the trip to the United States last year. (The two share a dam and their sires are full brothers.) While Battlement's British form does not look terribly inspiring, our Timeform foreign correspondents had nothing but positive things to say about her races last year, suggesting that her overall form is stronger than it appears at first glance. (Read more in the TimeformUS PPs for this race.) This could be the start to a productive 4-year-old campaign for this filly.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,5,8
Trifecta: 7 with 1,3,5,8 with 1,3,5,8
by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card's Highlight Horse and PPs.
RACE 2: AWESOME ANTHONY (#8)
The two runners likely to attract the most attention are Yummy Bear and Undercover Agent, but I'm not enamored with either at relatively short prices. Yummy Bear has had plenty of chances, and he did not run particularly well in his most recent turf starts. His overall consistent speed figures may lead some to believe he's a more reliable contender than he actually is. Undercover Agent would be formidable if he could transfer his dirt form to turf, but that's no guarantee, since his pedigree gives mixed signals at best. The horse that I want instead is Awesome Anthony. When last racing on turf over this course in November, he put in a very encouraging effort while overcoming trouble. He was bumped hard at the start, and squeezed out of position in the early going. From there, he made a wide run into contention before flattening out in the last eighth of a mile. That was a stronger field than the one he meets today, and a repeat of that performance will almost surely put him in the winner's circle.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,4,7,9
RACE 4: MR. McFROSTY (#1)
This is a particularly tricky race, since none of the contenders is standing on very solid ground. Samurai Warrior is probably the horse to beat after beating a decent field of maidens last time, but he's going to have to step up to face winners now and is unlikely to offer sufficient value. Don't Make It Easy has run some of the fastest TimeformUS Speed Figures, but it remains to be seen if he can transfer his mid-Atlantic form to the NYRA circuit. I think this is a good spot to get a bit more creative, so I'm taking a shot with Mr. McFrosty. I know he didn't run well in his only New York start, but that came against a much tougher field going two turns. This turnback should agree with him, and his debut effort is actually much better than it appears. There is not much speed in this race and the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that this horse could be on the lead in a situation favoring the frontrunner. I will trust in Gary Gullo and jockey Angel Arroyo, who are a potent pair, recording a 100 Trainer Rating together.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5
RACE 5: PROMISE THE SKY (#2) / YOU LIKE THAT (#6)
This is one of those races where I could have made a case for any of five or six runners. Instead, I'll focus on just two. Promise the Sky is a horse that I've been hoping would get the chance to try turf once spring arrived. While he's run reasonably well in a few maiden races on dirt, his pedigree suggests that grass is going to be his preferred surface. He's a half-brother to three turf winners, including stakes performer and $350,000 turf earner Lori's Store. He's my top pick, but I also want to highlight longshot You Like That, who has a chance to break into the exotics at a big price. He worked out quite the eventful trip in his lone turf start, getting steadied early before making a premature backstretch run and getting hung out wide on the turn for home. He may have more talent than is apparent.
Win: 2
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 2,6 with 2,4,5,6,7,8
RACE 7: MY SWEET GIRL (#4)
The Plenty of Grace has drawn a compact but fascinating field of seven fillies and mares. The deserving favorite is My Impression, who really came to hand in the second half of her 3-year-old season, winning a trio of stakes races, including a culminating victory over this very turf course. Her best performances make her the horse to beat, but you have to be somewhat concerned about her dull return at Tampa. Perhaps she just needed the race, but it does open up other options here. One mare that many will gravitate toward is Bar of Gold. Her connections have teased a potential turf start for quite some time, and with good reason. She has a ton of grass breeding on the dam's side of her pedigree, and her affinity for sloppy tracks would lead some to believe that she's a cinch to handle the turf. If I thought she was going to be an attractive price, I wouldn't hesitate to jump on the bandwagon given all of the evidence, but I think she's going to prove to be too popular an alternative to the favorite. Therefore, I'm landing on my good old friend, My Sweet Girl. The tail end of her 2016 campaign didn't quite go according to plan, but some less-than-ideal circumstances may have contributed to that. Her return race at Gulfstream is not nearly as alarming as it seems when you watch the replay. She had a nightmare of a trip, getting squeezed back early before racing extremely wide thereafter. She figures to move forward off that effort for Barclay Tagg.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,7
Trifecta: 4,7 with 4,7 with 2,3,5,6
by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
Visit TimeformUS to view this card's Highlight Horse and PPs.
RACE 4: SCARLETT JO HANSEN (#8)
There are plenty of viable options in a race that features several contenders with reliable turf form. Pinchbeck was installed as the morning-line favorite as she moves back into statebred company after finishing second against open foes at Tampa Bay Downs last time. However, this is not as significant a class move as it might seem, and she still needs to deliver a top performance to beat this field. I'm equally as interested in Madame Ambassador and Silly Numbers, who both ran well over this turf course last fall and have a right to have improved since then. I could use any of the aforementioned runners, but my top selection is the first-time turfer Scarlett Jo Hansen. This filly ran deceptively well in her debut despite racing very greenly through the final three-eighths of a mile, and then she was simply overmatched when facing a particularly salty group of New York-bred maidens last time. While she's performed reasonably well on dirt, her pedigree suggests that turf is what she really wants. Hansen is proving to be a capable grass sire, and her dam has produced four turf winners.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,4,5,9,10
RACE 6: IRON POWER (#3)
Arcature is probably the horse to beat as he makes his second start for Chad Brown's barn. He was shuffled back around the turn at Gulfstream last time and then had limited room to run for much of the stretch. He probably wasn't going to win that race given that no one was really closing from the back of the pack, but he did run better than it appears. That said, these types of runners are just typically overbet, and I'm inclined to consider other options. Closing Bell is the favorite on the morning line, but he seems to run his best races at long distances, and I'm not sure that his apparent class edge will come into play going 1 1/16 miles. Given a general lack of pace in this race, I'm taking a shot with Iron Power. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be clearly in front early in a situation favoring the leader. He's had trouble putting races together recently, but his recent inner-track performance is not as bad as it seems. He prefers turf these days, and he actually didn't run that badly in his last start over this turf course in the Artie Schiller. Not only was he facing a tougher field that day, but he got a wide trip around both turns, which hindered his chances. He's won over this course in the past, and I think he can pull off the minor upset here.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,5,6
Trifecta: 3 with 2,6 with ALL
RACE 7: BIG MARA (#3)
There's a lot going on in this race. You have horses with strong recent form, like Andesine and Bee Noteworthy, who figure to take plenty of action on the tote board. But you're also presented with a puzzling runner like Vicki's Dancer, who has run plenty of races that would beat this field but hasn't been seen since last May. You can make reasonable cases for almost every participant in this race, so I want to find the one who figures to offer the best value. I think that horse will be Big Mara. Her two starts at this level are likely to turn off most horseplayers, but she actually ran better than it appears on both occasions. Two back, she was stymied down inside around the far turn while eager to run and then was never able to get off the rail in the stretch. Then, last time, she was steadied and out of position early before getting bumped and losing momentum at the top of the stretch. She possesses more speed than that, and I expect Junior Alvarado, who has ridden her well in the past, to put her in the game earlier this time. If she runs back to her efforts from last summer, she can beat this bunch.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,7,8
RACE 8: BOSS LADY PLATINUM (#3)
Nouvelle Vague is the most likely winner of this race, but I want no part of her at a short price. She didn't run particularly well in either of her New York starts last fall, and now she's dropping back in for a tag while returning from a three-month layoff. Horses like this are always overbet, and there are plenty of other options with reasonable turf form. However, I'm looking at this race from another angle. There is a glaring lack of speed in this race. Queen of Spades is predicted to be on the lead early, but she's hardly a confirmed front-runner, and who knows what to expect from her off the layoff? Therefore, I'm hoping that Boss Lady Platinum can control this race up front. I know that her dirt races suggest she's too slow, but I'm intrigued by this surface switch. She had real trouble in her only turf start, and she has the pedigree to take to the grass. It seems like Gary Contessa has been waiting for turf season with her ever since she won her maiden, and I think she will outrun her odds in this spot.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,7,10
Trifecta: 2,7,10 with 2,7,10 with 3
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