Aqueduct TimeformUS Race Analysis

Picks & Plays for Sunday, March 17

by David Aragona

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 2:   2 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 3:   4 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 4:   2 - 4 - 8 - 5
Race 5:   5 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 6:   4 - 3 - 10 - 8
Race 7:   7 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 8:   6 - 5 - 1 - 9
Race 9:   3 - 7 - 9 - 11

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: EDDY DIRT (#2)
Our Honor is going to be a heavy favorite based on his 2018 form, which is vastly superior to that of his rivals in this $20,000 maiden claimer. While he unquestionably would get to the winner’s circle if he runs back to those efforts, I’m skeptical that we’re going to see that same level of performance off a seven-month layoff. This is the third time Linda Rice has attempted to get this runner into the starting gate after claiming him, as he has been a vet scratch in January and again in February. If he starts in this race, I find it hard to believe that he will produce a top effort given owner/trainer Rice’s insistence on dangling him for a bottom-level tag. He’s a horse you have to use defensively, but I’m trying to beat him. Seediskid and Bourbon Boy are viable alternatives, assuming that Our Honor regresses significantly. I’ll use them, but my top pick is second-time starter Eddy Dirt. This runner’s debut was not nearly as poor as it might seem. He broke from the gate without major issues but seemed to react badly to kickback soon thereafter, climbing as the field crossed onto the main track from the chute. He soon lost contact with the field and was hopelessly beaten at the quarter pole. Yet if you watch the head-on replay, this horse really picked up the pace in the stretch once Gutierrez set him down. According to Trakus, he ran his final quarter-mile in 25.19 seconds and his last eighth in 12.38 – the latter figure being more than a second faster than any other horse in the field – before galloping out strongly. This son of Violence should have no problem stretching out to nine furlongs. Rudy Rodriguez often conveys his intentions through rider switches, and this move to leading rider Manny Franco has to be considered a positive sign.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,5,9
Trifecta: 2 with 1 with 3,5,9

RACE 4: TRI SAINT LORENZO (#2)
Among those with experience, Stilts is probably the horse to beat. He was somewhat disappointing as the 5-2 second choice last time, but his effort on Dec. 20 was quite good. He made a wide, premature move into contention on the backstretch that day and lost significant ground while attempting to rally on the far turn. He finished just a nose behind next-out winner Motagally and arguably ran the better race on that afternoon. Something clearly went awry last time, and perhaps he will enjoy the cutback in distance. I don’t fully trust him, but I do think he must be included. There is a pair of intriguing first-time starters in this field. Superhighway seems most likely to deliver upon first asking as he goes out for the capable Chad Brown barn and attracts leading rider Manny Franco. This weanling purchase is a full brother to a decent multiple dirt winner, and there is additional class in the second generation of his female family. Kiaran McLaughlin’s first-time starters have needed a start to get rolling in recent years, but Spice Road is certainly bred to have some ability as a full brother to graded stakes winner Avery Island. I’ll use both in some capacity, but my top pick is second-time starter Tri Saint Lorenzo. This modestly bred son of United States ran deceptively well in his Feb. 23 debut. He was bumped while getting away toward the back of the pack. After lagging behind in the opening furlongs, he steadily advanced on the far turn and relentlessly closed ground through the lane to be fourth. That was a reasonably fast race for the level, and he figures to take a step forward with that experience under his belt. The low-profile rider may deter some potential supporters, so he should be a square price.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,5,6,8

RACE 6: APEX PREDATOR (#4)
Among those with experience, Deputy Flag is clearly the most likely winner. He has earned respectable speed figures while finishing second in both starts since returning from the layoff. The only major knock against him is that he has not met the toughest rivals so far in 2019, as even that Feb. 22 field at today’s level was relatively weak. His early speed makes him dangerous, especially considering the general lack of pace in this race, but I’m not enthusiastic about accepting a very short price on him. Light the Posse has a right to do better in his second start off the layoff after racing wide against a rail bias last time out. He would be a formidable foe for Deputy Flag were he to replicate his efforts from last summer, but he’s not exactly trustworthy after a series of gaps in his form. I’m intrigued by a couple of first time starters. Roseboro is the one that figures to attract more support as he makes his debut as a 4-year-old following a series of eye-catching workouts down in Florida. While he has clearly shown some speed in the morning and is bred to be a sprinter, there are some obvious drawbacks. Brian Lynch has not been terribly successful with debut runners recently, and it’s taken this colt nearly two years to get to the races following his auction purchase. I would rather take a shot with fellow firster Apex Predator at a more enticing price. It’s unusual to see these low-profile connections with a $250,000 auction purchase, as they generally campaign cheaper runners. This New York-bred appeared to be worth every bit of that quarter-million dollar price tag when he breezed a furlong in 10-flat at the Fasig-Tipton March sale last year, reaching out beautifully over the dirt surface with quick, efficient strides. It’s taken him a year to get to the races, but these are not connections that are known to rush horses. While trainer Friedman has had little success with debut runners over the past few years, his barn is full of slower horses so I don’t want to hold his stats against him. This colt has serious pedigree, by Tale of the Cat out of a Yes It’s True dam who is a half-sister to Japanese Group 1 winner A Shin Forward and $400,000-earner Wake Up in Malibu. I believe it’s a good sign that Jose Lezcano takes the mount and I wouldn’t be surprised if this one turns out to possess real ability.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,7,8,10

RACE 7: FLATEXCEL (#7)
With the scratch of La Cat Warrior, Flatexcel becomes the horse to beat and likely favorite. Flatexcel has simply run the fastest speed figures in this field and will certainly come out on top if he produces anything close to his top effort. I won’t hold his loss on Feb. 7 against him since he does not care for a wet track. Some may be deterred by his poor performance for the new barn last time, but that performance was totally due to his trip. For whatever reason, the plan seemed to be to rate him, as the connections took blinkers off and Dylan Davis was content to guide him to the back of the pack. Flatexcel has never been successful from off the pace, and he unsurprisingly reacted badly to the change in tactics. Now the blinkers go back on, and the Pace Projector indicates he is fast enough to be in front in a situation favoring the early leader. The remaining options are not particularly appealing. Hopper Droppers owns the second fastest speed figure, but he's not a reliable win candidate. Chris Englehart has entered a pair of runners, but neither one is trustworthy, as Adirondack Dream returns from a layoff and Take It To Scale's recent form has been abysmal.

Win: 7
Exacta: 7 with 2,3,5

Picks & Plays for Saturday, March 16

by David Aragona

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 2:   6 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 3:   5 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 4:   3 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 5:   6 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 6:   4 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 7:   7 - 8 - 3 - 1
Race 8:   8 - 3 - 2 - 7
Race 9:   4 - 3 - 2 - 1

TOP PLAYS

RACE 3: STARTWITHSILVER (#5)
This race could be significantly affected by scratches, depending on which runners Linda Rice leaves in the race. She has entered four of the six betting interests, and as of Saturday morning all of them are expected to participate. If the race holds together as is, there is a fair amount of early speed signed on. Sower, Yorkiepoo Princess, Sounds Delicious, and Filibustin all do their best work when able to secure the lead. The Pace Projector indicates that Sower is the one most likely to revert to stalking tactics, as she has done in the past, yet that still leaves a trio of mares contesting the pace. Yorkiepoo Princess finished behind Sower in the Interborough last time, but I thought she had the slightly tougher trip while setting the pace nearest a rail that was disadvantageous. She should appreciate the slight cutback to six furlongs here. I’m using both of them in some capacity, but I prefer the two Rice runners drawn to the outside. Sounds Delicious merits plenty of respect off her dazzling victory in this race last year, but it’s been a bumpy road since then. She was off for a long time following a poor effort in May and disappointed in her return last fall. While she lost as the favorite again last time, I thought she took a significant step forward. Her 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that effort puts her in the mix here, and she will appreciate getting back to six furlongs. She’s dangerous in her third start off the layoff, and I’m using her prominently. My top pick is Startwithsilver, who is also trying to reclaim her top form following a layoff and a disappointing return. While she lost by seven lengths to stablemate Holiday Disguise last time, that effort is not quite as poor as it seems. Feb. 16 featured a strong rail bias, and Startwithsilver was forced to go widest of all around the far turn while racing too close to a pace that fell apart. This mare was ridden like that race was merely a prep, and I expect her to take a big step forward as she switches back to regular pilot Junior Alvarado. This 6-year-old does best when she can be reserved at the back and launch one explosive rally, and Alvarado rides her that way.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,4
Trifecta: 4,5 with 4,5 with ALL

RACE 5: DISQUIET (#6)
Heartbustingirl may break through this time after picking up minor checks in her first three starts, but I’m getting tired of this filly. She’s going to be an extremely short price once again despite not having really stepped forward off her mediocre debut effort for Dave Cannizzo last summer. I thought she had no excuse to lose as the heavy favorite last time, and there’s no guarantee she will be as effective on the stretch-out to a mile. Her pedigree, by Bustin Stones and out of a Hook and Ladder mare, hardly suggests that stamina is a point of strength. The best alternative appears to be second-time starter Disquiet. This filly had little chance when meeting much better horses going 6 1/2 furlongs in her debut against maiden special weight company. Feb. 3 featured a strong rail bias, and Disquiet was never inside while racing wide at the back of the pack throughout. She now gets Lasix, and she is bred to appreciate added distance as a half-sister to route winners such as graded stakes winner Recapturetheglory.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,5,8

RACE 6: ROCKIN JO (#4)
I’m not trying to beat likely favorite Rockin Jo, whose running style fits this race perfectly. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be clearly in front in the early stages in a scenario that is likely to favor the leader. This horse has been in deceptively strong form lately, as you can make excuses for his recent losses. He actually ran a respectable race on Dec. 14 despite not making the lead. He was put in an impossible position two back when forced to chase exceptionally fast fractions over a sloppy that he does not care for. Then last time, he clearly would have won had his rider guided him over to the rail after the start. Feb. 16 was a day when you needed to be in the inside path to have a legitimate chance, and Rockin Jo was kept in the 2- to 3-path throughout by his rider, allowing the eventual winner to come up the rail. I like this rider switch to Kendrick Carmouche, who figures to secure the front with him. I’m just not thrilled with any of the alternatives. Many will consider Desert Lights to be the main rival, but his recent form is merely mediocre and I have trouble betting his rider. Support Our Cause may be the most dangerous rival since he has prior speed figures that make him competitive against this field and his most recent maiden win suggests that he could be heading back in the right direction.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,5,6
Trifecta: 4 with 2,3 with 2,3,5,6

RACE 8: RALLY CAP (#8)
The discussion of this race needs to begin with the pace. The majority of the main contenders prefer to race on or near the lead, so it comes as no surprise that the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. Hushion is very fast in the early stages and will almost certainly be sent to the front under Mike Luzzi, but fellow speeds Alamendro and Trip Ups should also be looking for early position, whereas stalkers Show Prince and Saratoga Promise should be in hot pursuit. All of that should help to set things up for a closer. While there is no true late runner in this field, the horse who could fall into such a trip is Rally Cap. I’m usually reticent to accept a potential favorite in a race as competitive as this one, but I just get the sense that Rally Cap may be the right horse for this particular spot. He’s getting a positive jockey switch to Manny Franco, who has been riding extremely well throughout this entire Aqueduct meet. I was not thrilled with this colt’s first couple of starts, but he has significantly improved with additional experience. His most recent start on Feb. 18 was obviously his best yet, as he chased the stakes-bound colt London House through the early stages and held together well to be second, well ahead of the stakes-placed runner Kaden’s Courage. The 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned for that performance makes him the fastest horse in this field. The other horses I would use prominently along with him are Show Prince and Funny Guy. The former took a big step forward when finishing fourth in the Rego Park last time and is capable of stalking the pace. Funny Guy may be able to revert to the closing tactics that he used early in his career as John Terranova removes the blinkers that made him more aggressive. He ran quite well in his maiden victory and his most recent loss is not a true indication of his ability.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,7
Trifecta: 8 with 2,3 with 2,3,4,6,7

Picks & Plays for Friday, March 15

by David Aragona

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 2:   3 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 3:   2 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 4:   8 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 5:   5 - 1 - 2 - 8
Race 6:   10 - 5 - 4 - 7
Race 7:   2 - 6 - 3 - 7
Race 8:   3 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 9:   2 - 10 - 8 - 11

TOP PLAYS

RACE 3: TOO MANY TALES (#2)
Awillaway is likely to go off as the favorite in this spot after collecting a pair of minor awards from her first three career starts. She’s stepping up to face older horses for the first time after meeting straight three-year-olds in her prior starts, but it’s not as if any of those older rivals have run considerably faster. Awillaway’s only disappointing performance came when she was forced to race wide against a strong rail bias on Feb. 3. While she may win this race if she repeats her last TimeformUS Speed Figure of 78, earned on Feb. 23, there are other rivals in this field who have run comparable numbers. Awillaway earned a 90 figure in her debut back in January, but that number is of questionable predictive value, in my opinion. I’m not way against her, but I think there are some viable alternatives at better prices. One of those is It’s My Catiecat, who ran competitive speed figures as a 2-year-old, but has only made one career start in the past year. She didn’t run particularly well in that Jan. 25 return, but she was somewhat against the track while racing on a dead rail throughout. She may do better here, but I don’t fully trust that she can still race competitively. I’m taking a shot against these runners with Too Many Tales. At first glance, she looks too slow and cheap to compete against the likes of Awillaway and probable second choice Anne’s Song. However, Too Many Tales appears to be heading in the right direction in a race where others cannot necessarily be expected to improve further. This filly has taken a step forward with each career start. She had absolutely no speed in her debut when closing in a slow race at the bottom level. Moved up in class next time, she displayed considerable improvement to lose by less than 3 lengths against a solid field for the level. Then last time, I thought she improved yet again, as she was far more aggressive in the early stages and was right in contention until the eighth pole. Another minor step forward should put her right on par with the favorites. I don’t think there’s a huge disparity in quality between the $50,000 field she faced and the maiden special weight fields that Awillaway exits, so this rise in class may not be as drastic as it seems. Furthermore, with the apprentice allowance she is getting 14 pounds from some of the shorter priced older runners.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4,6

RACE 4: ALPHADORA (#8)
Given the wide-open nature of the race, perhaps it’s unwise to default to a potential favorite. Yet I nevertheless have trouble getting past Alphadora as the most likely winner, and I believe she is the right horse to take as long as her price does not dip too low. She did not garner much respect at the windows in her first two career starts, but she actually ran quite well on both occasions. Her debut was deceptively strong, as she was forced to endure a wide trip over a rail-biased surface for the first two-thirds of the race before angling inside late. Then last time I thought she ran in spots as she showed improved early speed, yet seemed to lose focus on the turn before coming again in deep stretch to nearly get up for the victory. Given that uneven performance, she may benefit from the addition of blinkers this time. Furthermore, I don’t mind the stretch-out in distance given her pedigree and the fact that she may be able to control the pace of this race if she again shows the early speed we saw last time. This filly would likely be odds of 2-1 or lower if sent out by a top barn, but she figures to be only a lukewarm choice due to the low-profile connections. I’m not trying to beat her, but I will use some others. Becca Takes Charge is a logical alternative after running second while wide against a bias last time. That was a slow race, but she has a right to improve. Today Comes Once has not run quite as well as Alphadora in two common races, but she may appreciate the stretch-out.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,7

RACE 8: CARTHON (#3)
Vincento has to be considered the horse to beat after racing competitively against open N1X allowance foes in January. Yet when Rudy Rodriguez dropped him back down to the New York-bred $40,000 optional-claiming level off that encouraging performance, Vincento failed to attract the interest of the public at curiously inflated odds and finished an uninspiring third. This gelding was claimed out of that race by Linda Rice, who keeps him at the same level in his first start for the new barn. Rice has very good numbers off the claim in this situation so this horse obviously merits respect. Main rival Blugrascat’s Smile actually finished ahead of Vincento when they met on Jan. 26, and there’s little doubt the Charlton Baker trainee ran the superior race after chasing wide throughout. Blugrascat’s Smile is in very good form right now, but he’s finished second in three consecutive starts and is beginning to pile up the minor awards. I’m using him prominently, but he’s not the most appealing win proposition. I could say the same thing about Uncle Sigh, who had been in very good form throughout 2018, but has never been the most reliable win candidate. While his form has not deteriorated as drastically as some might assume, he will have to run better than his recent performance in late February when he had no excuse to miss third. I’m taking a shot against these horses with the likely speed Carthon. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be clearly in front in the early stages in a situation that is forecast to favor horses on or near the lead. Carthon showed how dangerous he can be when given an aggressive ride on Dec. 20, as he chased an honest pace and drew off impressively going today’s distance. I wasn’t thrilled with his loss to the two aforementioned runners on Jan. 26, but I thought he came back with a deceptively strong effort last time at 1 1/8 miles. He set some taxing opening fractions, outdueling a rival who eventually finished last, before battling on gamely to be third. Eric Cancel has been riding him well and this gelding should be difficult to reel in if he flashes that same speed over the flat mile.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,5,7
Trifecta: 3 with 2,5,7 with 1,2,5,6,7

Picks & Plays for Sunday, March 10

by David Aragona

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 2 - 3 - 1
Race 2:   6 - 2 - 4 - 7
Race 3:   5 - 1 - 2
Race 4:   6 - 9 - 2 - 7
Race 5:   3 - 7 - 1 - 5
Race 6:   6 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 7:   7 - 5 - 8 - 2
Race 8:   5 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 9:   9 - 2 - 6 - 4

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: STERLING BEAUTY (#6)
Linda Rice has a stranglehold on this race, as she sends out an uncoupled pair of runners who are likely to dominate the wagering. It will be interesting to see who ends up going off as the favorite between Color Chart and Delta Gamma. The latter filly is more accomplished, having finished second in three of her four career starts. It appeared that she was bound to quickly break out of the maiden ranks following her first two performances, which were both better than the speed figures indicate. However, she then fell apart in her third outing and failed again at today’s maiden claiming level most recently. While her speed figures are higher than the one number Color Chart has earned, I’m not totally convinced that Delta Gamma really wants to stretch back out to a mile. That said, I have similar concerns about her stablemate. While Color Chart is by versatile sire Big Brown, her damsire Too Much Bling was a pure sprinter and the female influences in this pedigree are ambiguous. While it appears that she was running on well at the end of her debut, I thought she was just passing tired rivals after riding a gold rail for much of her trip. The top two finishers in that race both have some quality, but I felt Color Chart ran significantly worse than that pair. Linda Rice is renowned for her work with second time starting maidens, but she hasn’t had as much success with the maiden special weight to maiden claiming move within that sample. I obviously respect both of these runners, but I want to take a shot against them with Sterling Beauty. In my opinion, this is the filly with the most upside. I’m just drawing a line through her debut since she clearly was not prepared for that race and she raced wide against a strong rail bias. Her next start was far more encouraging. While she finished 5 lengths behind Delta Gamma, I thought Sterling Beauty ran in spots and was hindered by her rider’s lack of aggression midway through the race. After racing keenly early, Sterling Beauty seemed to lose interest on the turn, and Eric Cancel just let her drop out of contention. Yet, when he actually asked her for run in the lane, she had more to give and was arguably finishing best of all at the wire. We’ve seen some progeny of Central Banker stretch out and this filly strikes me as one who should have no trouble with the mile distance. She’s going to be a distant third choice, but she doesn’t have to improve as much as some may think in order to upend both favorites.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,5

RACE 2: SALTY SMILE (#6)
Sweet August Lady is likely to be heavily favored as she drops to this bottom-level claiming event after failing against allowance company last time. Chad Brown runners such as this routinely get overbet, and I’m somewhat concerned that the public may just concede this race to her. While she would be awfully difficult to beat if she were to repeat the speed figure that she earned two back, that was going 6 1/2 furlongs, and there’s no guarantee that she’s going to be as effective at a mile. I’m definitely using her, but I think there are viable alternatives. Rachel’s Blue Moon figures to be the controlling speed, but she’s difficult to trust after basically being eased in her last three starts. I’d also consider Princess Mikayah, who was forced to chase three wide against a golden rail last time and will appreciate getting back to one turn. I’m using them, but my top pick is Salty Smile. Her recent form has been lackluster, but I think her last two races are not nearly as poor as they seem. She blew the start two back and was forced to chase wide the entire way over a track that was favoring horses in inside paths. Then last time, I thought her rider was too conservative as he let her get shuffled back to nearly last at the top of the stretch after being forwardly placed early. All things considered, she ran on well to nearly get up for third. She’s been successful going this far in the past, and I get the sense that she may finally be rounding back into form.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,5,7
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 4,5,7

RACE 6: HIZAAM (#6)
I found this to be one of the most perplexing races on the card, since every betting interest is somewhat flawed. Of those with experience, Erlich is probably the one to beat. He should appreciate the slight turnback to a one-turn mile after failing to get the 9 furlongs in two of his last three starts. While I wasn’t thrilled with his performance going this trip two back, he may have been hindered by the fact that he was not able to make the front that day. However, that is a concern yet again with need-the-lead type Rucksack drawn to his outside. Without that older rival in the race, I would have made Erlich my top pick. Yet I’m somewhat concerned that he will not be able to produce an optimal effort if unable to secure a clear early lead. Orbed seems like the logical alternative, but I was never thrilled with his races as a 3-year-old and Rudy Rodriguez has very poor numbers in this situation. Over the past 5 years, he is just 5 for 37 (14 percent, $0.48 ROI) first off a trainer switch in dirt maiden races, and is 0 for 13 in route races within that sample. Given my reservations regarding those with experience, I’m forced to consider the first time starters, and Chad Brown sends out two viable options. The public will probably gravitate towards the $1 million yearling purchase Litany. This Curlin-sired gelding is out of a Grade 1 winning dam who earned over $900,000 during her career. However, she has not been much of a producer as of yet, with her best foal excelling on turf. I’ve watched some of Litany’s workouts at Palm Meadows and I cannot say that I have been impressed. He was nearly able to match strides with Bandon Woods, who finished off the board in his only start for Brown, and then was under a full-out drive to record a solo 4 furlongs in 49 3/5 on Feb. 24. It’s uncharacteristic for Chad Brown to allow his well-meant runners to be ridden that hard in a workout, so I’m taking a somewhat negative view of this one. While it may be contrary to conventional wisdom, I actually prefer the 4-year-old first time starter Hizaam. This colt has a stellar pedigree, by Bernardini out of a half-sister to Untapable and Paddy O’Prado. Given that stamina-oriented breeding, it’s no surprised that Chad Brown has taken his time getting him to the races and is starting him at a mile. I’ve also watched a few of his recent workouts, and they are slightly more encouraging. He easily held his own against recent debut winner Valid Point on Feb. 24, and he actually worked well in company with Remsen runner-up Network Effect on Feb. 10. It’s worth noting that Network Effect was declared off the Derby trail following that drill, but Hizaam nevertheless has shown the ability to achieve respectable times in the morning without a ton of encouragement. I think this one may have some ability and he could be a square price.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4,7

RACE 8: MIDNIGHT DISGUISE (#5)
This Heavenly Prize is one of the most fascinating races on the card, as you can make a valid case for any of the seven entrants. There’s no disputing that Divine Miss Grey is a deserving favorite off the strength of her stellar 2018 campaign. She won five races, all of them stakes, including her first graded stakes triumph, and she is the defending champion in this race. While she’s most dangerous when she can make the lead, Manny Franco would be perfectly content to stalk Sower in the early going. A mile is her best distance, and a wet track only helps. I just think she is going to be very difficult for this field to handle. A couple of horses exit the Ladies Handicap in January. While Forever Liesl ran down Sara Street that day, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the latter filly turn the tables. Forever Liesl was suited to the longer distance of the Ladies, whereas Sara Street should appreciate the cutback to a one-turn mile. I’d use both of them in some capacity, but I’m taking a shot with Midnight Disguise. I am a fan of this massive filly, and there’s a logical case to be made for her. She had gotten very good last winter while racing into fitness and seemed to ultimately be best in one-turn races. Her Busher score would still make her a player in here, and it’s likely that she has improved since then with another year to mature. Some may have been disappointed by her return effort, but she actually ran very well that day. Feb. 10 was yet another day on the main track when horses who raced inside dominated, and Midnight Disguise raced widest of all. All things considered, she actually did well to get up for second. She’s going to need to step forward this time, and the wet track is a concern, but this filly is an overachiever, and I think she has it in her.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4,6
Trifecta: 3,5 with 3,5 with ALL

Picks & Plays for Saturday, March 9

by David Aragona

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 2:   6 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 3:   3 - 7 - 4 - 1
Race 4:   2 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 5:   2 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 6:   3 - 4 - 10 - 6
Race 7:   10 - 1 - 2 - 7
Race 8:   5 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 9:   5 - 2 - 4 - 8
Race 10:   3 - 7 - 6 - 8
Race 11:   2 - 3 - 7 - 10

TOP PLAYS

RACE 4: TURCO BRAVO (#2)
Despite attracting just 6 entrants, this race is a fairly intriguing handicapping puzzle. The two runners who figure to attract the most attention are the pair of front-runners Devine Dental and Haul Anchor. There are certainly some things to like about these runners individually. Devine Dental is capable of running some formidable speed figures and he’s now switching into the unstoppable Rob Atras barn, whereas Haul Anchor has been in ranging form since getting claimed by Rudy Rodriguez. However, it’s difficult envisioning a path to success for both of these runners given their need-the-lead running styles. I agree with the TimeformUS Pace Projector that Devine Dental is probably the faster of the two and he should be hard-sent to make the front under Manny Franco from his inside draw. Given the likelihood of an early duel, I think this race has the potential to come apart late, especially considering the fact that each of these runners is stretching out to the demanding distance of 1 1/8 miles. The horse that should be sitting in the perfect spot just behind them is Turco Bravo, and he is my top selection in this race. I’ve long been a fan of this 10-year-old gelding, who will be attempting to notch his 18th career win on Saturday, and he seems to have gotten back into respectable form in recent starts. He reeled off three straight victories for different barns through the fall and early winter before failing as the 6-5 favorite last time. Some may be put off that recent loss, but he had legitimate excuse that day. Jan. 27 was a day that was strong favoring horses that rode the rail, and Turco Bravo was forced to chase 2- to 3-wide every step of the way while the first and third place finisher spent the majority of their trips inside. I think that performance is a lot better than it seems, and I’m encouraged to see this trainer switch to Mertkan Kantarmaci. This barn is enjoying a strong meet and Kantarmaci has shown the ability to get these old warriors to maintain their form. I’m primarily using him with Shadow Rider, who would also appreciate a contested pace up front. He’s not quite as fast as the aforementioned runners, but he figures to sit the right trip and 9 furlongs is no issue for him.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5,6
Trifecta: 2 with 1,5 with ALL

RACE 5: THREE TO THIRTEEN (#2)
I made Three to Thirteen the lukewarm 5-2 favorite on the morning line, yet I think he is a very likely winner of this race and would offer sufficient value at a price as low as 8-5. This race appears complicated at first glance, but I think the TimeformUS Pace Projector helps to shed some light. There is just not any true speed in this field outside of Three to Thirteen. Special Story took advantage of a favorable front-running trip in a paceless race last time, but he’s not a true speed type. The same goes for Mystical Song, who was forwardly placed against tougher most recently, but does his best running when he can settle and finish. As the Pace Projector indicates, Three to Thirteen is significantly faster than his rivals in the early stages, and he is finally going to encounter a scenario in which his speed will work to his advantage. He’s exiting a pair of races that featured contested early paces. His rider unwisely attempted to change his running style two back, which did not work out very well. Then last time he was sent to make the lead, but they ended up going quite fast on the front end, which caused him to tire in the late stages. While that race was at the same N1X level as today’s affair, there are no runners in this field of the same quality as Papa Shot and Horoscope. Three to Thirteen’s main rival may be Ro Bear, who finished ahead of him on Feb. 2, but the latter runner got a very good trip that day. As long as Dylan Davis is more aggressive from the start and can secure a comfortable lead on Three to Thirteen, I believe he will prove uncatchable.

Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 1,4,6,8

RACE 7: NO STONE UNTURNED (#10)
Diamond Princess looks like a formidable favorite at first glance, but I think she may be more vulnerable than it initially appears. Her maiden win two back was assigned speed figures that are relatively fast in comparison to today’s rivals, but the top three finishers out of that race all returned to run much slower numbers in their subsequent starts. Diamond Princess was very disappointing when finishing 5th at odds of 6-5 last time and I don’t think she necessarily has to win this race if she merely repeats that performance. Furthermore, I rarely like to take Linda Rice runners when they are dropping in class like this. Stabilize is a viable alternative as she breaks just inside of Diamond Princess. She actually finished ahead of Diamond Princess in that Jan. 6 affair, and then ran deceptively well last time Feb. 3. That was yet another day that featured a strong rail bias, and Stabilize was chasing outside for her entire trip. I think she has a right to run much better on this occasion, but I am somewhat worried about her lack of early speed. While there are a few runners in this race that prefer to be forwardly placed, none of them are nearly as fast as No Stone Unturned. The Pace Projector indicates that she is going to be in front of this field in a situation that will favor the early leader. Watching her prior races, she is incredibly swift out of the gate. She always gets the first call and many times finds herself an entire length ahead of her rivals just a few strides out of the gate. This apprentice jockey has developed a nice rapport with her and seems capable of backing down the pace on the backstretch before asking her to finish. Trainer Claudio Gonzalez has already shipped in a Roddy Valente runner to win at this meet, and I think this filly has a chance to give them a pair of victories. I realize that she seems a bit cheaper than her rivals, but she’s a 3-time winner facing a bunch of fillies with a single win on their résumés. Having watching the majority of her races, it’s clearly that she also has a great deal of fight in her and will try hard to maintain her lead if still in front at the eighth pole. Sometimes a little determination is all you need to get the job done in a race like this.

Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,2,7

RACE 8: BAVARO (#5)
Skyler’s Scramjet is clearly the horse to beat. He showed that he was back in top form when finishing a close second to the talented Recruiting Ready in the Gravesend back in December. While he disappointed in the Toboggan last time, he’s always struggled at seven furlongs, so he figures to be far more dangerous as he turns back an eighth of a mile. The Pace Projector is predicting that he is fast enough to make the lead here, but I would imagine his connections would be content to sit just off Bavaro. This gray 5-year-old has gotten back into the best form of his career in recent months, and he put forth an exceptional effort when winning the Hollie Hughes last time. He blew the start and was forced to rush up on the backstretch, a trip that is usually impossible for need-the-lead types such as this to overcome. Not only did Bavaro win the race, he earned a TimeformUS Speed Figure of 126, which puts him in the same league as Skyler’s Scramjet. I’m not too concerned about him breaking slowly again since he typically rockets out of the gate. I believe in the speed figures, and I think the Bavaro we saw last time will win this race. The other horse to consider is Syndergaard, but I'm concerned that he might not be quick enough to win going 6 furlongs at this point in his career. Given the amount of speed signed on, he could find himself as far back as 5th in the early going. He showed last time that he's capable of passing horses in the lane, but I think it's asking a lot of him to run them all down in a race of this quality.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 5 with 3 with 1,2,4,7

RACE 9: TITLE READY (#5)
Sunny Ridge is clearly the horse to beat. I understand why they tried to stretch him out again given that he’s been successful going long in the past. However, this horse significantly improved once they decided to focus on one-turn races last year. His performances in the Kelso and Cigar Mile were two of the best of his career, and he is almost certain to win this race if he gets back to those performances. Furthermore, he was hindered by a wide trip on a racetrack that was starting to favor horses who rode the rail last time. It’s a valid excuse for him, but you can use that same excuse for Title Ready, who is likely to go off at a much bigger price. Title Ready does not have the prior speed figures of Sunny Ridge, but he’s an improving horse who seems to be on the precipice of taking a step forward. Title Ready responded well to the turnback in distance two back, and he was even wider than Sunny Ridge when attempting to make a premature move last time. I prefer him to the other logical alternative, Stan the Man. The John Terranova trainee has been in raging form recently, his only loss in his last 5 starts coming in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile. However, he's also been very fortunate in his last two wins, as he was allowed to control the pace against lesser company two back and then rode a gold rail to victory last time. I'm completely against the returning Vino Rosso, who will be hard-pressed to run them all down going a flat mile if he's the same sluggish runner we saw last season. A minor award seems like his best hope upon return.

Win: 5
Exacta Box: 2,5
Trifecta: 5 with 2,4,8 with 2,4,6,8

RACE 10: MIND CONTROL (#3)
Instagrand is a deserving favorite, but I get the sense that the public is going to go overboard on a horse who still has a lot to prove. He was visually impressive in his first couple of starts, but he also benefitted from a pair of extremely favorable trips. Both of those races featured slow paces, color-coded in blue in TimeformUS PPs, and Instagrand just sprinted away in the lane. He’s going to face a completely different situation here, with the Pace Projector predicting a fast pace. I’m using him defensively, but I think you’re supposed to try to beat this horse because there are some quality alternatives. The Withers speed figures may be a bit high, but I still think you have to respect Not That Brady. Tikhvin Flew is an intriguing longshot after a wide trip against a golden rail last time. I’m using both of them as alternatives, but my top pick is Mind Control. I acknowledge that he needs to get a bit faster, but I like this horse’s one-turn races. While he has some tactical speed, he is not a need-the-lead type, and I think John Velazquez will be content to allow him to rate inside. He got perfect trips in both the Hopeful and Jerome, and he has finished with real power on both occasions. Our Braintrust returned to validate that last race, and I think Mind Control still has the potential to take a step forward.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,6,7,8
Trifecta: 3 with 6,7,8 with 4,5,6,7,8
Trifecta: 6,7,8 with 3 with 4,5,6,7,8

RACE 11: ESPRESSO SHOT (#2)
Please Flatter Me may go favored in this highly competitive Busher, but she is facing a much more difficult assignment as she stretches out to a mile. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and it’s almost a certainty that she is going to encounter serious early pressure from rivals like Ujjayi, It Justthitthe Wire, and Shelley Ann in the early stages. She may be talented enough to overcome a more taxing trip, as she has been extremely impressive in her recent wins. However, I have to bet against her at a short price. I’m most interested in horses who figure to benefit from a quick pace. I would definitely use Oxy Lady, who ran a huge race to take the Tempted over this track last fall. She was disappointing last time, but she was hardly disgraced when finishing fourth in a tough Starlet two back. The turnback may help her. I’m using her prominently, but my top pick is Espresso Shot. This New York-bred has actually faced some decent fields, and I love the way she willingly runs through traffic and finishes off her races. Jorge Abreu has been preparing her for this race down at Palm Meadows, and Eric Cancel is a perfect fit for a filly with this kind of running style. I don’t think she’s going to have to run much faster than she did in winning the East View last time. The other horses to consider are Todd Pletcher's pair drawn towards the outside. Always Shopping has improved in recent starts, but she benefited from riding a gold rail when she won the Busanda last time. I actually thought Filly Joel might have run the better race that day, but that filly could be hindered by the projected pace of this race. Orra Moor is an enigma as she ships up from Florida off a pair of facile wins. Yet, based on speed figures, she just isn't quite fast enough, and her pedigree suggests that a mile may be a stretch for her.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,7,10,11
Trifecta: 2,3 with 2,3 with 4,7,8,10,11

Picks & Plays for Friday, March 8

by David Aragona

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 2:   4 - 3 - 2
Race 3:   4 - 6 - 5
Race 4:   1 - 2 - 7 - 4
Race 5:   2 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 6:   3 - 6 - 2 - 8
Race 7:   4 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 8:   5 - 6 - 2 - 4

TOP PLAYS

RACE 5: SHIMMERING MOON (#2)
At first glance, Leah’s Dream looks particularly formidable in this spot. However, upon closer inspection, I don’t think the task of beating her is quite as daunting as it may seem. Last time out Leah’s Dream benefitted from a sloppy racetrack that she clearly loves on a day when the surface was strongly favoring runners with early speed. She was defeated over a fair, fast track two back, and I believe she’s facing a field of similar quality today. One of the primary alternatives is Letmetakethiscall, who got back to the winner’s circle when dropped in for a claiming tag last time out. Feb. 10 was a day that was strongly favoring runners that raced on the rail, and Letmetakethiscall did spend a large portion of the race running along the inside path before angling out approaching the stretch. On the other hand, she was severely hindered by a poor break that left her approximately 3 lengths behind the field at the start, making her overall performance difficult to assess. I’m using her, but my top selection is Shimmering Moon. Some may be deterred by her most recent poor effort, but she had a significant excuse that day. Feb. 9 was yet another day that featured an inside bias, and this one was as strong as any we have seen during the entire meet. Shimmering Moon raced 3- to 4-wide throughout and truly never had a chance to get involved in the race. Notably, we have already seen third-place finisher Summer Punch return to win her next start. Shimmering Moon had previously run respectably against tougher competition at the open N1X level and she’s the only horse who possesses the speed to stay close to Leah’s Dream early.

Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 3,4,5
Trifecta: 2 with 3,5 with 1,3,4,5

RACE 6: CLAIRE’S KITTY (#3)
With the scratches of both morning line favorites, Votre Coeur and Moolah Schmoolah, my original top pick Claire's Kitty becomes the clear and obvious horse to beat. Claire’s Kitty ran some competitive speed figures going a route of ground on the dirt as a 3-year-old before heading to the sidelines in late summer. Any number of those Kentucky efforts would make her a serious rival for Moolah Schmoolah, yet some may be deterred by her lackluster return effort on Feb. 18. I’m willing to give her a pass for that performance since she was not ridden to be competitive that day. Apprentice Joey Martinez has developed a habit of riding horses far too conservatively in the early portions of a race, allowing them to drop far back out of contention, and that’s exactly what happened with this filly. It’s difficult to make up ground on the dirt, so Claire’s Kitty basically had no chance after a quarter of a mile. Now she’s stretching out to a more appropriate distance and is getting a significant rider up grade to Dylan Davis. She should be fitter in her second start off the layoff and the slight class relief should only help.

Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 2,6,8

RACE 7: PARLAPIANO (#4)
I made Honey Graeme the slight favorite on the morning line, and I’ll be interested to see how this highly competitive race gets bet by the public. I don’t like Honey Graeme at all, but I see why some may regard her as the horse to beat. In my opinion, she faced a pitiful field when she won two back and benefited from racing on a gold rail last time. I strongly prefer Danny Gargan’s other horse, Our Girl Abby, who was actually 2- to 3-wide against that same strong rail bias on Feb. 10 and still finished only 1 3/4 lengths behind her stablemate. In some ways, Our Girl Abby is the horse to beat, especially considering the apparent lack of pace in this field. I’m using her prominently, but there are a couple of other intriguing contenders. I’m not sure what to do with Starlite Mission, who appears to have gone off form for Gary Contessa. On the other hand, she may not have appreciated stretching out in distance two back and she was also against a bias last time. Those efforts are better than they seem, but I still get the sense that her best days may be behind her. I’m taking a shot against these horses with Parlapiano. At first glance, she looks far too slow to compete against a field of this quality, but that’s also why she’s somewhat appealing. Rudy Rodriguez is not the type of trainer to run horses in spots where they are unlikely to be competitive, especially first off the claim. Therefore, I think it’s a very good sign that he’s moving this filly up in class in her first start for the new barn. Furthermore, her recent efforts are actually a lot better than they seem. She ran extremely well two back when making a menacing far turn move while racing extremely wide over a rail-biased surface. Then last time she was hard-used in the early going to make an early rush to the lead on the far turn following an exceptionally fast opening quarter-mile fraction. She got leg-weary in deep stretch, but was an utterly dominant winner. If she builds on those efforts, she’s going to be a major factor in this spot.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3,6
Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with ALL

RACE 8: ICEY CASH (#5)
This race is a lavish feast for trip handicappers who pay attention to track biases. Almost every horse in this field is coming out of a race that was somehow affected by a surface bias. The most pertinent race to discuss is the finale on Feb. 16, of which 6 of today’s entrants exit. The horse who attained the best result that day was Dash for Dollars, who finished second, over 8 lengths clear of the rest of the field. However, Dash for Dollars was one of the few runners who rode the rail for a significant portion of his trip. His prior form hardly makes him worthy of favoritism in this spot, so I believe that he’s a terrible bet at a short price. The other 5 horses exiting that Feb. 16 event all had more interesting trips and were against the track to some extent. However, I’m not interested in the runners that just lagged at the back of the pack and picked up pieces in the final furlong. In my opinion, their against-the-bias trips were mitigated by the fact that they weren’t exerting themselves in the early going. The one horse who ran a particularly competitive race for entirety of his one-mile trip and was against the bias is Icey Cash, and I believe he’s clearly the one that you want out of that Feb. 16 heat. The pace of that race was honest, and Icey Cash deserves credit for racing closest to the early leader through the opening furlongs. Looking at Trakus figures, he lost just as much ground as those towards the back of the pack while racing 2- to 3-wide on the turn, covering between 15 and 20 more feet than the other horses who rounded out the superfecta. The problem with Icey Cash is that his prior form is terrible. That said, young horses are capable of improving at this time of year and it’s notable that he was coming off Lasix for the first time in his most recent start. For those reasons, it’s at least worth entertaining the prospect that he just took a step forward that day, and his improvement won’t be apparent to handicappers who fail to grasp the nuances of his trip. Furthermore, Icey Cash has tactical speed, which should be respected in this largely paceless affair. I believe he’s the right horse in relatively confusing race, and he’s going to be a square price.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4,6

Picks & Plays for Sunday, March 3

by David Aragona

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 4 - 2
Race 2:   1 - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 3:   5 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 4:   5 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 5:   5 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 6:   1 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 7:   7 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 8:   7 - 3 - 2 - 1

TOP PLAYS

RACE 3: ARISTOCRATIC (#5)
Following the scratch of Malibu Action, Happy Farm figures to be a solid favorite in this third race as he makes his first start off the claim for Jeremiah Englehart. It’s not as if this horse needs to improve at all off the barn change, as he has run well in all of his recent races. The only knock against his recent form is that he has been short prices on a number of occasions and has failed to find his way into the winner’s circle. I think it’s somewhat curious that Englehart is not moving this horse up in class at all despite his solid form, and I believe it’s worth keeping in mind that he does not have the strongest numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is just 5 for 49 (10%, $1.14 ROI) first off the claim on dirt at Aqueduct. (Alternately, he’s 11 for 43 at the other two NYRA tracks.) I'm using him, but my top pick is Aristocratic. This horse ran deceptively well in his first start for the Chris Englehart barn last time out. He had run some fast races earlier in 2018 for the Victor Garcia barn, but he seemed to go off form for Peter Miller. His final race in December hinted that he was heading back in the right direction and I thought he took a gigantic step forward in his most recent start at Aqueduct. He was facing a tougher group of horses and carved out some insane early fractions over a dead racetrack. His TimeformUS pace rating of 155 at the quarter is gigantic for a six-furlong race, so it’s no surprise that his TimeformUS Speed Figure was elevated to a 118 off a raw final time number of 101. It’s somewhat curious that he’s dropping down in class off such a performance, but a repeat of that effort makes him a serious rival for the favorites.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,6
Trifecta: 5 with 3 with ALL

RACE 5: FIRST FOREVER (#5)
I’m not trying to beat the likely favorite First Forever for Linda Rice. This barn has a fantastic record with second-time starting maidens and this filly is exactly the type of runner that Rice gets to improve off its debut. First Forever was soundly beaten as the favorite first time out, but she actually ran much better than it appears. Feb. 3 was a day that featured as strong a rail bias as we’ve seen during the entire Aqueduct meet, and First Forever got an incredibly disadvantageous three- to four-wide trip for the whole race. To illustrate how much horses can improve out of such situations, fourth-place finisher Alphadora, who was not even as wide as First Forever through the second half of the race, returned to run a very good second with a significantly faster speed figure in her subsequent start. This filly has a lot more ability than it appears and I’m not trying to pick against her. Others that I would include in exotic wagers are the pair of first-time starters, Lookbothways and Sarahrini. The former has some pedigree to be a decent sprinter as she debuts for Bruce Levine, whereas the latter sports some fast drills for Gary Sciacca.

Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 2,4,6

RACE 7: REED KAN (#7)
Win With Pride is a formidable favorite in this spot. He’s won 4 of his last 5 starts and possesses a running style that would appear to fit this race quite well. There is a fair amount of early speed signed on, and Win With Pride should be sitting right in behind the early leaders, waiting to pounce. While one might assume that he’s dropping in class as he moves into starter allowance company, this race actually drew a very competitive field for the level. Win With Pride is the horse to beat, but he’s going to need to produce a top effort in order to come away with the victory. A couple of Rudy Rodriguez runners are posted just to his outside and both must be respected. Tribecca has experienced a resurgence in recent weeks after going off form last fall. A pair of aggressive rides by Manny Franco have helped make the difference, as he won in gate-to-wire fashion two back and then outran a slow-breaking Bavaro to the lead in the Hollie Hughes last time. A repeat of either of those efforts makes him a player here, but he’s going to be a relatively short price, and I actually prefer his stablemate Royal Asset. This 7-year-old’s two most recent performances have been lackluster, but he’s had some excuses. He was overmatched against the likes of Honor Up and Syndergaard two back, and then last time he was forced to chase 3-wide against a gold rail. I won’t be surprised if he bounces back with a top effort here, but I’m somewhat concerned that he isn’t fast enough to make the lead with other speeds signed on. I’ll use both of these Rudy horses in some capacity, but my top pick is Reed Kan. This 4-year-old may be the fastest of all in the early going. It’s difficult to claim horses from Jason Servis, but Mertkan Kantarmaci has actually done quite well with this runner in two starts since being taken from that barn. He put forth a huge effort against claiming foes on Dec. 13 and then wheeled back in just 3 weeks to run a deceptively strong fourth in a very tough optional claiming event. All of the horses who finished ahead of him that day would be favored in a spot like this, and Reed Kan had to be hard-used to make the lead that day over a surface that he didn’t appear to relish. His two most recent TimeformUS Speed Figures of 118 and 113 indicate that he is arguably the fastest horse in this field, and I like that he’s coming into this race as a fresh horse. Apprentice Benjamin Hernandez has ridden him aggressively, and I expect him to try to lead this field from gate to wire. At a much bigger price, I would also throw No Distortion into the exotics. This horse ran extremely well within the context of his last race and is an intriguing claim by Bob Dunham.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,5
Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,7 with 2,3,5,6

RACE 8: KINGDOM’S QUEEN (#7)
I found this to be one of the most confusing races on the entire card. Science Fiction has to be considered the horse to beat, especially given the pace scenario. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, and she is going to be in front of this field early assuming she breaks cleanly. However, I’m not thrilled with taking this mare at a very short price. The reality of Science Fiction’s recent improvement is that she has found herself in very favorable situations against weak fields. This step up to N1X allowance company is significant and I’m not confident that she really wants to go the seven furlongs of this race. I’m using her defensively, but I think we can get a little more creative. I would consider a horse like Summer Punch, who was somewhat against the track last time when overmatched against the improved Bluegrass Jamboree. Her prior form makes her dangerous, and she shouldn’t be that far off the early pace. No Deal is a runner that many will consider off her runner-up effort behind Big Birthday, but I have some doubts about the overall quality of that race. I prefer the pair of runners that are turning back in distance out of the first race on Feb. 3. New Year’s Wish dominated that race on the front end while very much with the grain of that rail-biased track. I thought both Norma’s Charm and Kingdom’s Queen ran deceptively well under the circumstances. Norma’s Charm is the more logical of the two given her solid sprint form through 2018, but she’s somewhat hard to take given her 1-for-23 career tally. I’m instead taking a shot with Kingdom’s Queen. I know she looks a little slow based on her Beyers, but I put some stock in the 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned two back. That figure makes plenty of sense for the other runners in the field, and Kingdom’s Queen appeared to run a career-best effort that day. I won’t be too hard on her for subsequent performance against winners since that race did not play to her closing style. I’m pretty intrigued by the turnback to seven furlongs for this improving filly, since her female family is sprint-oriented. She’s related to horses like Mr. Gruff, Vision Perfect, and Have Another, who all excelled over sprint distances. I’m hoping that new rider Jose Lezcano can get her involved in the race a bit earlier, as Manny Franco was able to do two back. I know she needs some things to go her way, but I don’t think there’s much of a gap between the favorites and the bigger prices in this field, and this filly will certainly fall into the latter category.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,5