by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 4 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 5 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 3: 3 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 4: 2 - 5 - 1
Race 5: 7 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 6: 4 - 9 - 5 - 8
Race 7: 7 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 8: 8 - 4 - 6 - 5
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 5
The likely favorite in this $20k claimer is Colloquy (#3), who is just getting logical class relief after failing to break through at the New York-bred N2X allowance condition after a series of attempts. His form may also not be as bad as it seems, since he has caught wet tracks in 3 consecutive starts, and that’s probably not his preferred going. He has won going this 9-furlong distance before, but he did in a pretty soft allowance race. He might be slightly better around one turn, but I doubt it will be the distance that causes his defeat at this level. I just think he’s running into a tough rival in Majestic Frontier (#7). This Ralph D'Alessandro trainee has really come to hand over the last few starts for this barn. He was impressive coming up the rail to win at Finger Lakes in October with a career-best effort. He didn’t run as well off a layoff two back when he came to Aqueduct, but he’s another who doesn’t seem to relish a wet, sealed track. He got back on fast going last time and produced another career top, rallying to just miss against a tough field for this level. He was a big price that day and figures to be shorter this time. Yet I really like him stretching back out around two turns. Unlike some others in this field, he’s done most of his best work in two turn races during his career. That last workout on March 9 suggests that he’s continuing to thrive, and he gets a rider upgrade to Trevor McCarthy.
Fair Value:
#7 MAJESTIC FRONTIER, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 6
Colonel Vargo (#8) is the enigmatic likely favorite in this $12,500 claimer. He looked like a horse that was on his way up the class ladder last fall, on the cusp of competing against tougher allowance optional claiming types. However, after winning 4 dirt races in a row culminating with that N1X victory on Nov. 24, things started to go awry. He disappointed when shipped to Oaklawn in December, and then lost at a short price at Parx. Jacobson was seemingly ready to give up last time, as he dropped him sharply in class down to the $10k level. He got the job done, but he was inside early in that race on Jan. 18, which featured an extremely strong rail bias. He did drift off the inside in the stretch and started tiring in an underwhelming victory. He was a voided claim that day and now is back at a similarly cheap price tag. He’s the horse to beat, but I’m skeptical he can maintain this form. There is also other speed to make the favorite work early. Striking Speed, Charlie Five O, and Mr Phil all want to be forwardly placed along with him. Dynamite Karma (#9) is another who could be part of the pace, but at least he’s drawn well outside of those rivals. While this gelding’s recent form might lead some to believe he doesn’t want to sprint, he didn’t get a great trip when he tried 6 furlongs recently at Laurel. He ran much better going a mile last time at Penn National against a decent field, only to get leg weary late. I don’t mind the turnback for him, and he appears to fit based on class. If this race comes apart, there are some closer to consider. First Deputy (#5) owns the best recent race of those, having won at this level last time on Feb. 25. That was probably the right day to have him, as he went off at generous 5-1 odds off an against-the-bias trip two back in that Jan. 18 race own by Colonel Vargo. Another horse coming out of that same race is F F Rocket (#4), who actually ran better than First Deputy in defeat. Like that runner, he was also race 3 to 4-wide in that Jan. 18 event, run on a day that featured one of the strongest rail biases of the meet. Yet unlike First Deputy, F F Rocket never gave up despite that trip, passing horses through the stretch to finish a very respectable fourth. This horse has always been dangerous whenever he’s entered at the appropriate class level in races that feature some pace. I also like that he’s claimed back by Lolita Shivmangal, who is one of the most underrated trainers on the NYRA circuit from a value standpoint. She had success with him in 2023, and I find it encouraging that she’s keeping him at a level at which he can win.
Fair Value:
#4 F F ROCKET, at 4-1 or greater
#9 DYNAMITE KARMA, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 8
Those with experience in this state-bred maiden claimer haven’t shown much on the track. A number of them exit that Feb. 19 maiden claimer won by Snarky, and I’m reluctant to take anyone from that affair. I suppose horses like Necessaryandproper (#5) deserves credit for sticking around after at least chasing the quick pace that day. Yet it came up a very slow pace and the entire field was staggering to the wire. If I’m going to take anyone with prior race experience, it is Jen’s Kiss (#8). And her experience isn’t much to write home out, as she was basically eased on debut. However, she was competing against a much tougher field than this at the $40k maiden claiming level. That was Jan. 18, which featured one of the strongest rail biases of the entire meet, and she was chasing 4-wide every step of the way. She was beaten a long way, but that trip was likely a large contributing factor to the result. She now adds blinkers for the second start, and there’s a good chance that she’s a lot better than she showed on debut. I’m expecting a much better performance this time. The only other horses I would even consider are first time starters. Knight Trail (#6) has a decent pedigree, being by Solomini out of a dam who has produced dirt sprint winner Messi the Magician. Stoney Lonesome (#4) goes out for a barn that hasn’t had much success with newcomers, but at least she’s by 17% debut sire Bustin Stones. You don’t need much to latch onto to support a horse in this field, and at least I know the angle that leads me to Jen’s Kiss has proven to be potent.
Fair Value:
#8 JEN'S KISS, at 3-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 5 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 2: 5 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 3: 1 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 4: 1 - 6 - 3 - 7
Race 5: 2 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 6: 1 - 5 - 4
Race 7: 8 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 8: 2 - 4 - 8 - 9
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
Smokin’ Hot Kitty (#3) is clearly the horse to beat in this conditioned claimer as she drops a bit in class out of a series of races at the $35k level. She was meeting tougher company in those races and she will be tough to handle if she replicates those speed figures against this field. However, she has to do it stretching out to a mile, and she’s never gone this far on dirt before. She was a route winner on turf, but she was also effective sprinting, and routing on dirt can often be more taxing on a horse’s stamina. Her class might just carry her through here, but she’s going to be a very short price and I think there are others to consider. Shigeko (#4) looked like she was being too ambitiously spotted in a pair of New York-bred allowance races recently, but she actually ran quite well last time behind the reliable Kara Para. A repeat of that performance probably makes her the horse to beat, and she won’t be favored. I’m also intrigued by the pair exiting that Feb. 16 race at the $14k level. This is a weak race for the level, so I’m not too concerned about the rise in price tag. Shoopthereitis (#6) made a decent run for fourth and has run well going longer before. Yet Memento Mi (#5) might be the right one to take out of that race. She was somewhat with the flow in a race that went to closers, but she was actually more forward on the backstretch before getting shuffled back around the turn. She had to regather her momentum when switching outside and was finishing best of all late. She also ran better than it might appear two back at Laurel when unwisely glued to the rail by an apprentice. This barn has sent out some live runners at prices and she gets an interesting rider switch to Andrew Wolfsant.
Fair Value:
#5 MEMENTO MI, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 4
At his best, Ouster (#6) is clearly good enough to handle a field like this. He really came to hand last winter when winning 3 of 4 starts, culminating with a 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure last March. He moved up to face some tougher rivals after that and also stretched out in distance. He handled the added ground over sloppy going at Saratoga before throwing in a rare poor effort when last seen in August going 1 1/4 miles. He now cuts all the way back to a sprint for his return, which might actually suit him. He just has to be ready off the layoff for a barn that doesn’t have great stats doing this, so I wouldn’t want to take a short price. There isn’t a ton of pace signed on in this 7-furlong optional claimer, which makes Midlaner (#3) dangerous. However, he's gotten good trips in his last two starts and has lost without excuses. Perhaps he can slow down the pace going 7 furlongs, but I'd still want a generous price on him. I’m hoping there’s enough pace in here to give Beachwalker (#1) a fair chance. He was a crazy overlay when he won a $40k claiming race last time, drifting up to 8-1 as the remaining half of an entry. He bounced back from a poor showing in his prior start to be much more engaged throughout, displaying a strong kick through the lane. I’m encouraged that Jacobson is now moving him up in class off that victory. Jacobson is 8 for 25 (32%, $3.13 ROI) with last-out winners going from claiming to allowance races over the last 5 years. He’s as good as anyone in here on his day and this 7-furlong distance is perfect for him.
Fair Value:
#1 BEACHWALKER, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 7
I’m just not thrilled with the horses who are likely to take money in this spot. Ghostbustin (#1) seems to get bet every time and she’s run well in all four of her starts. Yet she hasn’t justified the prices she’s been in her two prior attempts at this level. She really didn’t have much of an excuse last time when she was battling with a longshot how actually outfinished her to be second. Now she’s drawn the rail with speed outside of her. Mouly (#4) might be the one to beat off her last effort against starter allowance company. It’s just fair to wonder where that race came from and whether she can be expected to repeat it, since her prior form doesn’t exactly make her a top contender against this field. She does have the ability to rate and finish, which should help her cause, but I thought others would offer better value. Liberty Flame (#3) is another who seems to be coming into this race back in top form, and at least she should be a better price. She got a confidence boost when dropping in against $10k claimers two back, and carried that form back to this level last time when closing for third despite racing out of position early. She has to work out a trip in a race with other speed, but must be respected in her current form. Foxy Cara (#2) probably isn’t a strong win candidate given her tendency to settle for minor awards, but she ran some races at the maiden level that would make her competitive against this field, including a few starts where she finished within range of Ghostbustin. Her speed figures have tailed off a bit lately, but she could get the right trip in here. My top pick is Easy Play (#8). She lost all chance at the start last time when stumbled very badly, and was lucky to even keep her rider. Her prior effort isn’t quite as bad as it seems either, since she was conservatively ridden, restrained early before going wide on the turn. She’s much better when she's ridden aggressively, so hopefully Dylan Davis will send her forward this time. She’s raced competitively at this level in the past and some may unfairly dismiss her as having gone off form when she’ss had legitimate excuses.
Fair Value:
#8 EASY PLAY, at 6-1 or greater
#3 LIBERTY FLAME, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 8
I'm not trying to beat Gentleman Joe (#2), who might inherit the favorite's role after the scratch of American Law. This 8-year-old has serious back class, earning some big speed figures for prior connections in his past. He went off form between 2022 and 2023, but he seemed to get back on track when returning from a layoff for Rick Dutrow earlier this winter. That Dec. 10 effort is better than it might appear, as the second and third place finishers both returned to run well in subsequent starts, and Gentleman Joe soundly defeated them. He then delivered another good effort at the $40k level last time, just run down in the late stages by a longshot. Yet the 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned makes him every bit as fast as the favorite. He was claimed by David Jacobson and given some time between starts. Yet he’s been on a steady work pattern into this race and notably is moving into a protected spot. Jacobson is 7 for 25 (28%, $4.13 ROI) first off the claim in allowance dirt races over the past 5 years. He projects to get a good trip and I think he is clearly the most likely winner. Another horse that I would use in vertical wagers with the top pick is Skylander (#4). He still has to prove that he can recapture the strong form that he found last fall, when he impressively won a starter allowance before outrunning his 44-1 odds in an N1X allowance. While the results have been poor since returning from a layoff, he’s been in some tough spots and might be getting mild class relief here. I would just demand a generous price given the low-profile connections. Allaboutthemoney (#8) is another possible value option. He finished 5 lengths behind American Law last time, but he never looked totally comfortable racing behind the leading group, and had trouble angling into the clear through the stretch. He does seem to do his best running when he can get over to the rail, which might not happen from a wide draw. Yet drawing outside might give him an opportunity to attain better forward position, as he did when he won two back.
Fair Value:
#2 GENTLEMAN JOE, at 9-5 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 6 - 1 - 5
Race 2: 3 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 3: 7 - 6 - 5 - 2B
Race 4: 1 - 2 - 1A - 5 - 6
Race 5: 1 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 6: 3 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 7: 6 - 7 - 4 - 8
Race 8: 6 - 4 - 1 - 8
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
I wouldn’t want to take too short a price on anyone in this $20k maiden claimer lacking much positive form. Tooshay (#1) is clearly the horse to beat based on her recent set of speed figures, some of which were earned against much tougher company than she’s facing here. She’s also been big prices in a few of those starts, and now she’s going to be a prohibitive favorite. I’m not inclined to bet on these types, so I wanted to find an alternative. It's just hard for me to make cases for many of the runners with outside of her. The only horse that really interested me was an alternative was her uncoupled stablemate. Prugova (#6) figures to be a better price as she makes her second start for Gary Contessa. She was competing at the maiden claiming $40k level against what was surely a better field than the one she meets here. She broke from the rail and was basically glued to it for the entire race. The rail wasn’t a disadvantage on Jan. 26, but that’s a tough trip to pull for a first time starter. She actually hung in well until the eighth pole before fading. I suspect she can move forward here with the drop in class and switch to an outside post position.
Fair Value:
#6 PRUGOVA, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 3
To a T (#6) figures to go off at a short price in this $20k claimer as she looks to make it two wins in a row. She had been campaigned primarily in tougher allowance and higher priced claiming races for Linda Rice, but the drop in class back down to this $20k level seemed to suit her last time. She had also been victorious when she made the same drop at Saratoga last summer for different connections. Now she’s making her first start off the claim for Rob Atras, whose barn has definitely been heating up lately at Aqueduct. However, Atras hasn’t been successful off the claim recently. The barn is actually just 4 for 47 (9%, $0.44 ROI) first off the claim at NYRA over the past year. Perhaps this horse will improve for the new barn, but she’s not exactly a cinch in here if she merely repeats her last effort. There are a pair of coupled entries in this race, and I’m inclined to be mildly against both of them. Midtown Rose (#1A) looks like the stronger half of the Mertkan Kantarmaci entry as she also makes her first start off a claim. However, she has to get faster to beat the favorite, and her price will get reduced by an entrymate that I’m not thrilled by. The same goes for Hydra (#2B), who is the preferred half of the Rudy Rodriguez entry. She ran pretty well at a lower level last time after racing against a bias on Jan. 19. Yet she’s another who needs to improve and is likely to be the right price. Divine Cross (#5) is a little more appealing as an individual betting interest, but she has to prove that she can be as effective cutting back in distance after running so well going a mile last time. She has run well sprinting in the past, but has to avoid getting outrun going this shorter distance. My top pick is Everlys Girl (#7). She’s coming off a poor result last time, but she had a couple of things working against her that day. She hopped at the start and was off behind the field, which is a disaster for a horse who wants to be forwardly placed. Furthermore, she was then forced to race outside trying to catch up on Jan. 19, which featured an intense rail bias. The pace was slow ahead of her which also worked against her cause. She lost by many lengths, but that wasn’t unusual for horses who got wide trips on Jan. 18 and 19, and many have since bounced back to their prior form. I’m hoping this mare can do that as well because her effort two back first off the claim for Michelle Nevin gives her a chance to beat the favorite. She figures to be the right price and she’s drawn well outside of the other speed.
Fair Value:
#7 EVERLYS GIRL, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 4
This is another race that features a pair of entries. David Jacobson’s runners are likely to go favored with Self Isolation (#2) clearly the more dangerous half of this duo. She’s just getting reasonable class relief after finding some optional claiming and stakes races to be a bit too tough for her. She won the last time she was placed in a straight claiming event last spring, and now she’s dropping to an even lower level. She runs her best races from the front end, and she will likely have to deal with the early speed of Shesalittle Edgy (#5). That rival is coming off a victory at the $32k level for Rob Atras. That was a decent field for that price tag so the rise in class might not be that steep. She just figures to take money off that win for a barn that has been hot lately. While I’m typically against entries, I think the other entry going out for trainer James Ferraro is interesting. These two raced as an entry on Feb. 9, and Icy Reply (#1A) was the one that was likely pulling in more money that day. She got a wide trip and disappointed, but a mile is likely just too far for her. She ran well on the cutback last time in a $50k claimer against the razor sharp I’m Buzzy, and now finds herself in another appropriate spot. My top pick is Jackie the Joker (#1), who somewhat surprisingly beat her stablemate when racing first off the claim for this barn on Feb. 9. She might have run even better than the result indicates that day. She broke well but was quickly reined in to rate off the pace by the 7-pound apprentice, who guided her over to the rail. While the inside was a good place to be early in the day on Feb. 9, the rail became a significant disadvantage in the second half of the card, especially by this final race of the day. Jackie the Joker continued inside around the turn and into the stretch but still battled on well for third. We saw Whistler’s Style, who also had a rail trip in that race, come back to win with a vastly improved effort. Jackie the Joker probably prefers going a bit shorter so I like this turnback and she could be a fair price even as part of an entry.
Fair Value:
#1 JACKIE THE JOKER, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 8
If Khalic Magic (#4) maintains her current form first off the claim for a new barn, she is going to be awfully tough for this field to beat. However, that’s not exactly a guarantee. Orlando Noda has decent if unremarkable numbers first off the claim, and he wisely keeps her at this state-bred optional claiming level where she’s already had success. She has obviously relished stretching back out in distance, where she can make better use of her early speed. That said, she was beating a weaker field at this level last time and it’s not as if she had always been the most trustworthy sort prior to those last two victories. Her form is fully exposed, so there’s little incentive to taking a short price on her. The most logical alternative for many handicappers will be Midtown Lights (#1), who goes out for the powerful Brad Cox stable. However, she’s been a little lackluster in two starts since returning from a layoff. She was somewhat against the track two back on Jan. 19 when the rail was a significant advantage. However, she failed to step forward stretching out to this distance last time. Perhaps she got a little too far back in the middle stages of that race, but she just seemed a little sluggish. I’m not sure that drawing the rail does her any favors. Mike Maker sends out a pair of runners. Gone and Forgotten (#7) has the better overall form, but she ran poorly in her first start for this barn, albeit in a tough spot last time. I also don’t think she ran as well as it appears two back, since she rode the advantageous rail in that same Jan. 19 race where Midtown Lights was fifth. I prefer Maker’s other runner Ribot’s Valentine (#6). Her speed figures coming in here are a little slow compared to the main players. Yet she has run well at this level sprinting in the past, including racing competitively against Khali Magic. She’s also had excuses recently. She was wide against a rail bias on Oct. 19, then was compromised by a slow pace on Dec. 8. She won last time on the dropdown, but was prevented from running faster due to a 3-wide trip on Feb. 4, which featured yet another rail bias. She’s stretching out for just the second time in her career and might benefit from an aggressive ride from Dylan Davis, who notably lands here after riding both Maker runners previously.
Fair Value:
#6 RIBOT'S VALENTINE, at 9-2 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 5 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 2: 4 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 3: 3 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 4: 4 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 5: 1 - 3 - 5 - 7
Race 6: 6 - 7 - 1 - 2
Race 7: 1 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 8: 1 - 5 - 6 - 3
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 5
I’m not thrilled with the likely short prices in this maiden claiming event. The Mighty Don (#5) has run pretty well in all of his dirt starts, especially when spotted realistically against maiden claimers. Last time he carved out the fractions going 7 furlongs before tiring late, so he should appreciate the slight cutback here. The three horses who defeated him that day have all come back to run well, so that was a race of decent quality for the level. However, that was over two months ago, and this horse has only had 2 workouts since then. He’s the one to catch, but I wouldn’t want to take too short a price here. Flying in Style (#7) is even less trustworthy. He’ll be making his first start for a tag after 8 attempts at the maiden special weight level. He’s shown the ability to beat a field like this on a number of prior occasions, but his recent form has been inconsistent. For whatever reason, he seemed to lose his early speed this winter, falling out of contention through the early stages of a few races in December and January. Perhaps the drop in class will wake him up, but I’m dubious. War Chrome (#3) took some nibbles on the tote board in his debut. Feb. 3 featured a rail bias, and he was never towards the inside, traveling 4 to 5-wide most of the way while never looking comfortable. He was a bit keen early and then exchanged some bumps at the quarter pole when attempting to rally. Michelle Giangiulio has done well with maiden second time starters in a very small sample, and this one certainly has some upside. My top pick is Dolly’s Bank (#1). He’s gone off at big prices in all of his recent starts, including three attempts at this level. He achieved one of his best results going 7 furlongs in his first time dropping down to this level, not beaten that far by some runners who would be short prices against this group. Since then he’s twice shown speed and faded going a mile. Perhaps the turnback to a sprint will benefit him as he tries the shortest distance of his career, especially in light of that bullet 46-flat half-mile he logged earlier this month. He fits here and figures to be the right price for low-profile connections.
Fair Value:
#1 DOLLY'S BANK, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 6
There’s no denying that Ocean Gateway (#7) is a deserving favorite in this starter allowance event. The connections got away running her for a tag last time in a race that seemed to boost her confidence. She didn’t get the best trip considering the track profile on Jan. 18, racing wide until the stretch over a track that was intensely biased towards rail runners. She had shown quality prior to that, but had never appeared as focused through the early stages as she was last time. Horses have since come back out of that race to run well, and she repeats or improves on that effort she will be tough to beat. Miss Fashionista (#1) is the alternative that those looking to beat this favorite are most likely to consider. And if you’re taking a positive view of her, you’re solely basing it on her last race, where she displayed dramatic improvement to beat a weak maiden claiming field in fast time. If she runs as well here she has a chance, but she’s not exactly the easiest horse to trust. I want to go in a different direction with a horse who I think will be a fair price. Irish Jackson (#6) didn’t beat much when she won her career debut in the slop, but she did overcome a poor start to run down a heavy favorite. She was claimed out of that spot but went to the shelf for a long time. Yet she returned from the layoff for the new connections in November, and took a minor step forward. They waived the claiming tag that day, and then moved her up to this allowance level, so the connections clearly want to protect her. While the result last time looks poor on paper, she actually ran better than it appears. She broke forwardly and was reined in before getting shuffled back in traffic down the backstretch. She lost position to the point of being eliminated by the time they reached the quarter pole. She’s been a vet scratch twice since then, but she figures to get somewhat ignored here with a little-known rider named. I don’t mind her stretching out a bit and I won’t be surprised if she’s more aggressively handled this time.
Fair Value:
#6 IRISH JACKSON, at 7-1 or greater
RACE 8
I suppose Apuro (#6) looks formidable on paper against this group as he drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. This colt was bet down to even-money on debut racing on synthetic at Gulfstream last year and put in a decent effort to be second. I wasn’t as thrilled with his dirt debut last time, cutting back in distance. He showed good speed to contest the pace, but had nothing left for the stretch. A repeat of that 89 TimeformUS Speed Figure might put him in the winner’s circle against this bunch, but I have some reservations about taking a short price on him. A couple of second time starters drop out of the same Jan. 28 race at the maiden special weight level. Neither Strategic Decision (#5) or Conflicted (#2) did much running that day, dropping out of contention on the far turn before getting eased late. The Chad Brown trainee does seem like one who should be capable of better since he took some money on debut and has a decent pedigree. Brown is 6 for 21 (29%, $2.06 ROI) with maiden special weight to maiden claiming dropdowns with second time starters on dirt over 5 years. Conflicted also has a right to do better, but he has much more of a turf pedigree so I wonder if this is the right surface for him. My top pick is Don Vino Vici (#1). It’s frustrating that this horse drew the rail again, something he’s had to deal with in 3 of his 5 starts already. He does have a tendency to break a step slowly, and the rail draw isn’t ideal for horses like that. However, stretching out to a mile might mitigate that issue. This horse ran a lot better than it appears on debut when he showed good speed early before greenly losing position on the turn, only to rally again in the stretch. He took a few starts to get back on track after that, but his last couple of efforts have been steps in the right direction. His partnership with Manny Franco also appears to be a positive one, since he's a horse who requires some motivation and Franco suits those types. I have been waiting to see this horse stretch out to a dirt route, and I think he could still be a fair price given those aforementioned rivals going out for higher profile barns.
Fair Value:
#1 DON VINO VICI, at 5-2 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 1 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 2: 5 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 3: 3 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 4: 4 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 5: 2 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 6: 5 - 4 - 2 - 1
Race 7: 9 - 8 - 2 - 6
Race 8: 4 - 6 - 1 - 9
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
It’s pretty obvious that Brick Ambush (#3) is the horse to beat as a likely heavy favorite in this optional claiming allowance affair. He was unlucky to get disqualified out of a lucrative paycheck in that controversial stakes two back but still ran well to be second. That 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure stands up to scrutiny, since most of the runbacks from that race have been solid. Brick Ambush did regress a bit last time when losing a race at this level at a short price, but he was beaten by a pretty good rival in Doc Sullivan. He also may have found the one-mile distance to be a bit far for him, and now he cuts back to a sprint. He’s the most likely winner, but he figures to be a very short price and I think there is at least one interesting alternative. Some will look to horses like Allied Attack (#2) and Always a Warrior (#6) as possibilities, but I’m not thrilled with either of those options. Allied Attack took advantage of a track bias when he broke his maiden last time and needs further improvement to get on terms with the favorite. Always a Warrior disappointed in the slop last time, but he might catch another wet track on Sunday. My top pick is Lotsa Trouble (#5). This horse actually exits the same race as Brick Ambush on Jan. 19, but finished 17 lengths behind that rival. However, the result should not be taken at face value. Lotsa Trouble got an impossible trip over a heavily rail-biased racetrack. He was wide every step of the way and racing out of position, placed too far off the pace trying to make up ground in the middle of the track. The margin of defeat might seem alarming, but his result was in line with other horses who got similar trips on that card. He had run well to break his maiden two back in the slop, earning an 83 TimeformUS Speed Figure despite spending time towards the inside on a day when the rail path was a disadvantage. He’s better than his overall form suggests, and now he cuts back to an appropriate distance while catching his preferred wet surface.
Fair Value:
#5 LOTSA TROUBLE, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 5
Tempermental (#4) is a very likely winner of this race as she drops in class out of a series of decent efforts against tougher New York-bred optional claiming competition. She was entered this cheaply in January and was a vet scratch, but Rob Atras will attempt to drop her again here after her claim was voided at the $45k level last time. The drop does seem a little odd considering that she has seemingly been in strong form. However, she’s also been the beneficiary of very favorable circumstances in a few of her races, so all may not be as it seems. She took advantage of a rail bias when she won at that tougher level on Oct. 19, and then got a good trip closing into a fast pace on Nov. 16. Most recently she caught another rail bias on Feb. 3, and got a great trip, saving ground on the turn before angling to the 2-path to chase the winner home. Notably, the winner of that race who also rode the bias came back to regress significantly when finishing off the board here earlier this week. This mare might appear to be a cinch on paper, but she becomes more vulnerable once you take a deeper look. I considered two possible alternatives. One of those is Meraviglioso (#1), who I liked against cheaper last time. She got a good trip to win that day and while she is moving up in class, she isn’t catching the deepest field for this level. My top pick is Eros’s Girl (#2), who I’m expecting to be a better price. She was beaten nearly 8 lengths by the favorite when they met two back, but she was against the track that day, racing in the 3-path for most of her trip. She obviously disappointed last time, but she probably isn’t best going a mile and she also stumbled badly at the start, which put he out of position. I like her turning back and this drop in class seems appropriate for a mare who has run speed figures that are far more aligned with this level of competition.
Fair Value:
#2 EROS'S GIRL, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 6
It’s hard to trust anyone in this intriguing state-bred optional claimer. The only trustworthy option appears to be Be the Boss (#4), who ran reasonably well at this level last time when closing for second after finding himself out of position in the early going. That race was won on the front end by the swift What’s Up Bro, and Be the Boss got mildly shuffled early before passing horses late. His overall form has been solid, and he actually ran pretty well when he caught a sloppy track two back. My one reservation is that the Mike Maker barn has been in a bit of a slump in New York through recent weeks, sending out multiple short prices to significantly regress. The problem when looking past this favorite is that the next two shortest prices on the line are both coming off significant layoffs. Excellent Timing (#6) has certainly run speed figures that would make him awfully tough against a field like this. He’s just especially tough to gauge given his inconsistent form when last seen. His task off the layoff is also complicated by the presence of the speedy Disco Deano (#3), who figures to keep him honest early. Perfect Munnings (#2) also has races in his past that would crush this field, and perhaps he’s a little more reliable since he has run well off extended layoffs in the past. It is interesting that he was claimed back by Linda Rice in September after she dropped him in for $25k off the layoff at Saratoga. However, it is worth noting that he is returning without a claiming waiver, which was available based on the layoff. I want to go in a different direction with a horse who looks a little cheaper on paper. Writer’s Regret (#5) was beating a much weaker field last time at the $25k claiming level. However, he did it impressively, overcoming a rail bias on Feb. 4 while making a 4-wide move to the lead and drawing off late. That performance was better than the bare result indicates, and he had also run deceptively well two back at this level when he got the wrong trip, shuffled back and racing in traffic on the turn. He has competed effectively at this level in the past and he appears to be rounding back into top form for Ralph D’Alessandro.
Fair Value:
#5 WRITER'S REGRET, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 8
Muazarah (#6) is clearly the one to beat as he drops in for a tag for the first time. He didn’t handle the turf at all two back, but his surrounding dirt races are consistently solid for this level. He came to this circuit last time and put in a respectable effort to finish fourth against special weight competition. Two horses have already won out of that race, and most have run well in subsequent starts. Todd Pletcher is 20 for 72 (28%, $1.46 ROI) with maiden special weight to maiden claiming dropdowns on dirt over 5 years, suggesting these types win often but are usually overbet. Conniving (#1) seems like a logical fit at this level based on his effort two back where he closed well from off the pace against what might have been a tougher field than this. However, he failed to run as well in the mud last time and he could catch another wet track coming back in 7 days. My top pick is another horse making a quick turnaround. Classic Kingdom (#4) debuted last week against some older rivals in a race won by 4-year-old firster Upside Potential. He made a 4-wide move on the far turn to briefly reach contention before flattening out late, racing a bit greenly with an awkward head carriage in mid-stretch. That was the kind of debut that he should be able to build upon with a more professional effort this time. He’s returning in just 10 days, but he appears to catch a more appropriate field of straight 3-year-olds at this level. He figures to be a generous price for low-profile connections and still has plenty of upside.
Fair Value:
#4 CLASSIC KINGDOM, at 6-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 3 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 2: 4 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 3: 6 - 7 - 5 - 8
Race 4: 6 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 5: 2 - 8 - 4 - 7
Race 6: 5 - 4 - 8 - 6
Race 7: 4 - 8 - 1 - 5
Race 8: 4 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 9: 6 - 2 - 7 - 1
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3
I don’t have a major knock against Friday I’m in Love (#7), who ran a strong race at this level last time. Stretching out to a mile for the first time, he got very comfortable on the front end and battled back gamely when challenged by favorite Wanna Winna in the late stages. That was his first attempt going a mile, and he put forth his best effort to date. Now he has to prove that he really wants the distance, though he projects to be the controlling speed again with the same rival from last time, Waflr (#5), likely chasing him. The only issue is that Friday I’m in Love was 9-2 last time and now he’s going to be a prohibitive favorite with exposed form. I don’t want the horses who finished behind him last time and would rather search for a new face. My top pick is Ring Me (#6). I wasn’t thrilled with this horse’s debut, since he spent some time towards the inside on Jan. 18, which featured a strong rail bias. However, he was more so in the 2-path than right on the rail that day before angling out in the stretch, so perhaps he was more against the track than I initially thought. He did back up that performance last time when getting up for fourth at this level despite not getting an ideal trip. He actually broke towards the front, but was taken in hand and allowed to lose position down the backstretch, ultimately getting shuffled back to last on the turn. He did make up some ground when he got clear in the stretch but never had a realistic chance to get into the trifecta. He stretches out for a barn that has been doing well so far at this meet.
Fair Value:
#6 RING ME, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 4
I’m somewhat skeptical of the horse who could go favored here. Magic Express (#3) earned a speed figure on debut at Parx that makes him the horse to beat. However, I’m not sure about the quality of the field he faced that day. The winner was an 0 for 16 maiden coming into that affair and suddenly earned a career-best number. I just think this horse is stepping up into a tougher spot as he ships in to New York for his second start. Brittany Russell does win with a lot of maiden second time starters, but they are often overbet. The next-best horse on paper appears to be Majestic Michael (#5), but he’s a little tough to trust coming off a significant layoff. He ran very well on debut when battling back towards the inside on a day when the inner paths were a disadvantage. He failed to progress in his second start, but no one was beating the runaway winner that day. He once possessed the ability to beat this group, but Tony Dutrow runners can need a start off layoffs. Play (#4) is a candidate to step forward in his third start for Adam Rice, who is deputizing for the suspended Linda. He ran like a horse who needed a race on debut, breaking well before dropping out of contention on the turn and then coming on again late. He did show much better speed in his second start but may not have appreciated racing on the rail on a day when the inside wasn’t the best place to be. He now gets off the inside and still has room for improvement. My top pick is another horse that ran in that Jan. 7 race. Xcellent Men (#6) might have put in the best effort that day, racing to a clear lead on the turn through swift fractions before getting overhauled by a horse who closed from well back. This Jacobson trainee obviously disappointed last time, but he got the wrong trip on Feb. 9. That was a day on which the rail path became a significant disadvantage during the second half of the card, and he was glued to the inside path for most of his trip. We have already seen horses come back from similar trips that day to run well, and I think he can rebound here in a race where no one else is terribly compelling.
Fair Value:
#6 XCELLENT MEN, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 5
This race centers around Mandatory (#8) and the question of whether he can validate his last effort. This 7-year-old gelding had always had some ability, but was 1 for 20 coming into that last race when dropped in for a $40k tag. Yet out of nowhere he produced far and away the best effort of his career, exploding to a runaway victory by over a dozen lengths. He earned a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which would probably put him in the winner’s circle once again if he were to repeat it here. Yet we had never seen that kind of effort out of Mandatory in the past and I don’t think it’s just a given that he’ll run back to it. If Mandatory regresses to the horse he was previously, this race really opens up. Horses like Notah (#7) and Blue Plate Special (#4) make some sense as alternatives. The former may not have wanted to stretch out to a mile last time when he contested the pace before fading. He earned a big speed figure going this distance in the slop two back and drew well outside of other speed. Blue Plate Special probably ran the best race of anyone in his last start since he just missed despite blowing the start, spotting the field several lengths. He’s been in great form since getting claimed by Randi Persaud, and he might get a decent pace setup. My top pick is Night Effect (#2), who figures to be a more enticing price than the aforementioned pair. He participated in a very tough race at this level on Jan. 27, and there’s an argument he ran the second best race of anyone in that spot. He was the horse setting the pace, hounding the eventual winner around the turn before fading a bit through the lane. He still held on gamely for fourth, finishing ahead of Mandatory. He switched to a new trainer last time and tried to stretch out to 9 furlongs at the same level. He faded to second after setting the pace, but perhaps that distance was just a bit too demanding for him. There’s also an argument that the rail wasn’t the best place to be on Feb. 11. Now he’s cutting back to a mile, where he had success in his prior two starts. He figures to get an aggressive ride being drawn inside fellow speed Notah, and I think he’s a threat to take them a long way up front at a price.
Fair Value:
#2 NIGHT EFFECT, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 7
This first-level allowance race might be the most competitive event of Saturday card at Aqueduct. There is no clear favorite, though Expected Value (#5) figures to vie for that role going out for the popular Chad Brown stable. He hasn’t yet won since returning from a layoff earlier this winter, but he has run pretty well in both of his starts. He got pace to close into two back in the mud and was finishing well to get up for fourth. Then last time he was perhaps not on the best part of the track when trying to close inside, ultimately just missing in a blanket finish. He has to take another step forward to beat this group, which is possible, but you’re going to find out at a short price. Certified Loverboy (#1) exits the same race and might be a better value option at a bigger price. He was only beaten a length by the Chad Brown runner last time, and also spent most of his trip racing on the rail before tiring in the last furlong. He also put in a strong effort two back when making an early move into a fast pace to take over before flattening out. He has remarkably drawn the rail again, something that has happened to him in 8 of his 11 starts, but he handles it well and should get a good trip switching to Dylan Davis. The horse to beat might be Mistical Curlin (#8) even though he lacks recency, having not competed since the end of November. It’s possible that he could need a start off the layoff, but he did appear to be training well earlier this winter when entered and scratched before Gustavo Rodriguez’s barn was put under a quarantine. He has probably been ready to run for a while, and his best efforts are certainly good enough to beat this field. He also wouldn’t mind a wet track, which seems possible with rain in the forecast for Saturday night. My top pick is Shipsational (#4). He showed real ability as a 2-year-old winning a pair of New York-bred stakes before going through a rough patch over the course of the 2022 and 2023 seasons. He hasn’t won in a long time, but I did think his last effort was a big step in the right direction. The pace and race flow of that Dec. 16 event didn’t set up for him at all, and he was actually finishing best of the closers through the lane. Ed Barker’s barn has been on a roll over the past few months, and Heman Harkie has been riding some live runners for the barn. I think this gelding might have another step forward in him as he makes his second start of the winter, and he shouldn’t be bothered by the stretch-out in distance.
Fair Value:
#4 SHIPSATIONAL, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 9
Likely favorite Cuando (#2) was well meant on debut and delivered a solid effort, but just didn’t have the speed to match strides with the winner. He appeared to appreciate added ground last time, comfortably sitting behind the leaders before finding a seam in upper stretch. He threatened the winner late but was turned away by that foe. A repeat of that performance puts him squarely in the mix here, but he does have to come back on relatively short rest. I prefer him to the other horse who could take money in this spot, J D Factor (#1). There’s rain in the forecast for late in the day on Saturday, and J D Factor ran his best race on a fast track. That Nov. 24 event doesn’t look quite as strong in retrospect, and this Dutrow trainee drew a tough spot breaking inside in a race that is supposed to feature some other speed. Cool Operator (#7) is one who figures to get a more aggressive ride on the stretch-out. He’s been chasing the pace going a bit shorter, where he’s run in spots. He galloped out well last time after struggling to keep up on the turn, and may do better with added ground. My top pick is the second time starter True Connection (#6). He didn’t take much money when he debuted in the mud back in mid-January. He caught a tough rival that day in Tuscan Sky, who came back to win a two-turn allowance race at Fair Grounds in very fast time. This colt was outrun through the early stages on debut, but started to make up ground on the turn and was finishing with good late interest. He actually galloped out up to the winner past the wire. While he hasn’t been seen in nearly two months, the James Ryerson barn missed most of February due to a quarantine. Ryerson has solid numbers with second time starters, and this colt strikes me as one who will appreciate added ground.
Fair Value:
#6 TRUE CONNECTION, at 3-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 6 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 2: 3 - 7 - 2 - 4
Race 3: 6 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 4: 1 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 5: 4 - 5 - 1A/1 - 3
Race 6: 4 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 7: 1 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 8: 8 - 10 - 3 - 4
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3
Chad Brown sends out a pair of runners in this maiden special weight event, of which Clare Quilty (#1) is likely to go favored. This son of Into Mischief took plenty of money on debut, going favored in a race where a few rivals had already run well. He put in a pretty professional effort, taking up a stalking position soon after the start and briefly forging to the lead in deep stretch before getting overhauled late by the deep closing Hero’s Medal. It was a solid if belated start to this 4-year-old’s career, and he certainly has a right to take a step forward second time out. Chad Brown is a solid 32 for 93 (34%, $1.90 ROI) with 3-year-old and older maiden second time starters in dirt routes over 5 years. However, this colt figures to be a very short price and he does have to overcome the rail draw this time. I actually prefer Brown’s other horse, Pricing Power (#6). This 5-year-old gelding has had trouble staying on the racetrack. He made his debut late in his 3-year-old season at Keeneland, showing speed and fading, and then wasn’t seen again until last month at Aqueduct. Competing in the same race as Clare Quilty, he was aggressively ridden to overcome a mildly tardy start, rushing up to set the pace. Notably, he was guided over to the inside on Feb. 9, when the rail seemed to be a significant disadvantage in the second half of the day. We have already seen horses who rode the rail on that card in surrounding races come back to win at nice prices. Pricing Power might have run better than his stablemate given his positioning on the track, and he also has a license to move forward second off the long layoff. It’s a good sign that Chad Brown is still running him in maiden special weight races after all this time. He drew a better post position than last time, and is bred to handle the added ground.
Fair Value:
#6 PRICING POWER, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 8
The horse to beat in this maiden claiming finale is probably Solo Tonight (#10), who has run well in all three prior starts, just settling for minor awards each time. He had some mild traffic trouble on debut before improving going a mile second time out. He contested the pace that day before settling for third behind a couple of runners who were relatively strong for the level. Then last time he just found himself in an unusually fast race for the level, and he also was slightly compromised by racing wide for the second half of his trip. This seems like an appropriate distance for him and he figures to be a major factor with his typical performance. I’m less thrilled with other experienced runners who could take money in this spot. A first time starter like Big Hutchy (#3) could be a bigger danger as he debuts for Adam Rice, deputizing for the suspended Linda. This colt is a half-brother to a pair of runners who ran well on debut, including stakes winner Officer Hutchy ($263k). My top pick is a horse who looks easy to dismiss at first glance. Janssen (#8) has finished far back in both prior starts at the maiden special weight level. He’s dropping in class to race for a tag for the first time, but he obviously needs a form reversal. Yet I think he’s still underexposed. He had little chance facing open company on debut at Gulfstream before coming to New York. Then last time he was competing on Jan. 18, which featured one of the most extreme rail biases of the entire meet. He was racing 4 to 5-wide throughout and was spun widest of all into the stretch, which gave him no chance to be competitive that day. We have already seen horses who were similarly against the track from that very race come back with vastly improved efforts. I like that he’s dropping into a realistic spot. He has a chance to wake up here adding Lasix and blinkers, and should be a generous price for a low-profile barn.
Fair Value:
#8 JANSSEN, at 8-1 or greater
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