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Featured Race:
Franklin Square Stakes
Approx. Post Time: 04 34 PM (Feb 23)
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by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 2: 3 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 3: 2 - 4 - 3 - 1/1A
Race 4: 8 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 5: 4 - 6 - 2 - 7
Race 6: 4 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 7: 6 - 5 - 1 - 7
Race 8: 2 - 5 - 6 - 8
RACE 2: RIBBONITE (#3)
Some might be tempted to take a stand against Ribbonite as she drops to the lowest level of her career following a poor effort. However, she had a valid excuse last time. While it’s not noted in the chart comments, Reylu Gutierrez actually lost his irons on Ribbonite coming out of the gate and didn’t get back in the stirrups until the field had traveled nearly a quarter-mile. That early trouble obviously cost her any chance of getting to the front, which is where she needs to be to have her best chance. This time, she figures to show her customary early speed, and I believe she’s quick enough to hold her position inside of pace rival Elizabeth Nicole. There are still some reasons to be wary of Ribbonite since she’s been dealing with a series of layoffs, but assuming she gets the right trip, she’s supposed to prove faster than these rivals. Her two main rivals Not About the Nail and Arewehavingfunyet have scratched.
Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 1
RACE 6: RO BEAR (#4)
H Man has to be considered the horse to beat as he makes his first start off the claim for Jason Servis. He is especially dangerous in these situations, and it’s probably a good sign that he’s moving this runner up in class in his first start for the new barn. H Man would not have to improve much, if at all, on his runner-up finish behind the Servis-trained Planet Trailblazer last time. He carved out legitimate early fractions that day and just succumbed to the winner while well clear of the rest of the field. I’m hardly against him, but these low-level claimers are not that reliable, and I don’t want to accept a very short price on anyone. Some may consider Sparty Boy as an alternative, but I find him difficult to recommend off his recent form. This horse exploded with an 11-length triumph in very fast time in his first start for the Rudy Rodriguez barn, but it’s been downhill since then. He showed some signs of life when back on a wet track at Parx two back, but his most recent performance at Aqueduct was quite dull. Instead, I want to take a shot with Ro Bear. These low-profile connections rarely take a ton of money, but this horse should probably be among the favorites based solely on his recent efforts. He easily won while defeating today’s rival Halloween Harrow the last time that he raced in a straight claiming event. Since then, he’s faced tougher optional-claiming and allowance foes, yet he has not disgraced himself in any of those performances. He had little chance chasing the very fast Charlie McCoy two back, but he nevertheless stayed on well to finish just a length behind the runner-up. And then last time, he took advantage of a good trip while finishing just behind Papa Shot and Horoscope, both of whom would be heavy favorites in a race like this. A one-turn mile is his best distance, and Harry Hernandez seems to ride him well.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,6,7
Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with 1,5,6,7
RACE 7: MILLS (#6)
With the scratch of Ironclad, Langdarma will fly the flag for the Mertkan Kantarmaci barn. This trainer has had success with a small group of family-owned runners at this meet, and now he’s branching out to train for capable claiming owner Robert Amendola. Langdarma is making his first start off the claim for new barn and would likely win this race if he were merely to repeat his most recent effort. However, I have some reservations. Yet he just does not appear to be a winning type, having blown clear leads in the stretch of his last three starts. I'm also somewhat concerned about him stretching back ou to 1 1/8 miles after he readily surrendered with no apparent excuse two back. I want to take a shot against him and there are a number of viable alternatives. I would have strongly considered Uncle Sigh, but he seems more likely to show up in a race on Saturday. Roaming Union makes some sense as he drops in for a tag for the first time. Kelly Breen is just running this 4-year-old where he belongs after he’s failed in a series of tougher spots. His speed figures suggest that he may be a cut below the two favorites, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him jump up with a faster effort if he is able to secure an easy lead. My top pick is Mills. Like Langdarma, this horse is not exactly a winning type. However, Mills has been in reasonably strong form for Dave Canizzo, and I like the stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles for him. He’s always been quite versatile, but longer distances typically play to his strengths. If the aforementioned runners hook up at all on the front end, he will be closing late, and I believe he can use his stamina to outstay them.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,5
Trifecta: 6 with 1,5 with 1,5,7,8
RACE 8: BUSS THE BELL (#2)
There’s no clear favorite in this wide-open finale. I made La Maquina Gris the slight choice on the morning line with very little confidence. He’s taking a significant drop in class after getting his head handed to him in two straight starts for Gary Contessa. Those taking an optimistic view of him might point out that he’s had to contend with muddy and sloppy tracks in his last two starts, and he is likely to encounter fast going on Friday. However, he needs to completely turn around his form. Infield Is In is not exactly a winning type, but he might be the most reliable alternative. He’s steadily been improving in recent starts and he certainly fits at this level. I won’t hold his fifth place finish on Jan. 13 against him, since that was a much tougher field than the one he meets today. I want to look outside of the box in this race, so I’m taking a shot with longshot Buss the Bell. Despite the fact that he goes out for the Randi Persaud barn and is ridden by low-percentage Dalton Brown, this gelding arguably ran the best last race of any horse in this field. His recent speed figures stack up very well with the aforementioned runners, and his last effort on Feb. 2 may actually be better than it appears. I thought the main track at Aqueduct was starting to tilt towards the rail late in the day on that card, as most of the horses that did well in that 10th race spent a significant amount of time inside. Buss the Bell was the only horse to mount a serious challenge while racing wide, and he actually held on quite well to be third considering that taxing trip. If he runs as well this time, I think he’s got a real shot to win this at a square price.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,6,7,8
by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 6 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 3: 7 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 4: 4 - 5 - 1A - 2
Race 5: 2 - 6 - 4 - 5
Race 6: 7 - 6 - 3 - 8
Race 7: 4 - 2 - 1 - 6
Race 8: 1 - 4 - 8 - 5
RACE 2: TEAM WIN (#6)
Fancy That is likely to go favored here after closing to be third in her second career start in early January. She was returning from a four-month layoff that day, so she had a right to need the race. After stumbling at the start, she really struggled to keep up with the pack. She rallied belatedly up the rail but was never a serious threat. While she certainly still has room for improvement, I’m not thrilled with what I’ve seen in either start, and I’d rather look for a slightly better price. The two most logical alternatives are second-time starters. Up At Dawn stretches out off a dull debut sprinting, but Mark Hennig has had his firsters ready to run recently, so I would have expected her to show more interest that day. I prefer Team Win, who returns just 19 days after finishing fifth in her initial start. While she did little running that day, she ran like she probably needed a race. Todd Pletcher typically isn’t sending young horses to debut in one-mile races in the middle of winter at Aqueduct because they’re ready to win first time out, so this filly will probably benefit from the experience. The fact that he named low-percentage rider Rafael Hernandez first time out comports with that theory. Therefore, I think it’s a positive sign that leading rider Manny Franco is named to ride today. Furthermore, Pletcher has solid numbers with this move. Over the past five years, he is 20 for 55 (36 percent, $2.10 ROI) with maiden second-time starters in dirt routes who also debuted routing.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,5
RACE 3: NEEDS NO ICE (#7)
Following the scratch of Dynamite Kitten, Sweet Like Char may end up going off as the favorite. This filly fits the race very well from a class perspective. She ran legitimately fast at Parx three back and would certainly beat this field were she to repeat that effort. I can excuse her performance two back since she was overmatched against starterallowance foes. Yet her last effort is difficult to explain. It is worth noting that she was dead on the board, and racing was canceled due to high winds right after they completed the race, but she still never lifted a hoof. I also have serious concerns about her getting this distance. I know she won her maiden going two turns as a 2-year-old, but that came against a very weak field. Instead, I’m taking a shot with Needs No Ice. Like scratched morning line favorite Dynamite Kitten, she is coming off a victory against New York-bred maiden-claiming company. The only difference is that she has run slower than the favorite. Yet I think there are some reasons to prefer this filly. Unlike some others in this field, her form appears to be on the upswing. She ran deceptively well two back after encountering trouble midway through the race, whereas Dynamite Kitten had a much smoother trip. Then last time, she overcame a slow pace and sloppy track while defeating the Rob Atras trainee Promise Me Roses, who has since reeled off two consecutive wins. The John Morrison barn has been firing well lately, having achieved six exacta finishes from just 10 starters at this meet.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,5,6
RACE 8: STORM PROPHET (#1)
A few entrants exit the seventh race on Jan. 12, which was also contested at this class level and distance. Mr. Dougie Fresh was the slight favorite and looked like a winner past the eighth pole before a resurgent Stoney Bennett reclaimed the lead at the wire. Mr. Dougie Fresh will be tough to beat if he merely repeats that performance, but he got a fantastic stalking trip that day in a race that seemed to favor those with a forward position. I prefer Allured out of that spot since he had to race through traffic and was closing best of all at the end. Chad Brown has good numbers when adding blinkers, and it’s a positive sign to see Manny Franco stay here rather than hop aboard Business Cycle. Nicodemus is an intriguing new face as he makes his first start since the Curlin Stakes last year. He was no match for Hofburg that day, but he stayed on gamely to be second in the slop while achieving a field-best 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He appears to be working well for his return, but Linda Rice does not have very strong numbers in this situation. I’m using all of these runners in some capacity, but my top pick is Storm Prophet. He’s likely to race as a solo betting interest since entrymate Blewitt is almost certain to scratch following his win last Sunday. That should drive up Storm Prophet’s price since he appeared to be the lesser half of the entry. He lost to today’s rival Gio d’Oro when they met last time out on Jan. 4, but Storm Prophet had the much tougher trip that day, racing wide around both turns. According to Trakus, he covered 56 more feet than Gio d’Oro, more than the margin of defeat. I like this turnback to a one-turn race for Storm Prophet, and Rudy Rodriguez has does extremely well in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 28 for 62 (45 percent, $2.80 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes at Aqueduct.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,8,11
Trifecta: 1 with 4,8 with 3,4,5,6,8,11
by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 1 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 7 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 3: 7 - 8 - 6 - 3
Race 4: 3 - 8 - 4 - 7
Race 5: 2 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 6: 5 - 8 - 7 - 3
Race 7: 6 - 9 - 2 - 4
Race 8: 5 - 7 - 10 - 4
Race 9: 4 - 2 - 11 - 7
RACE 1: STAR SWEEP (#1)
Heartbustingirl will be a prohibitive favorite based on her significant speed-figure edge. She’s simply run faster than her rivals in both career starts and has done so while facing tougher company than the field she meets today. It’s possible that she even needed her return from the layoff last time out, as she didn’t show much improvement upon her debut despite making her first start for the Todd Pletcher barn. That turned out to be a race where you did not want to get stuck inside in the stretch, so Heartbustingirl just found herself in the wrong spot while trying to rally late. If she improves at all on that performance, she looms a very likely winner of this race. However, there is one viable alternative whom I have to bet. Star Sweep exits a race that has been incredibly productive as a forecaster of improvement. Nine horses have run back out of that race, including the winner, She Takes Charge. A number of them have run well, and all have improved their speed figures by significant margins. Looking at TimeformUS Speed Figures, every one of those nine runbacks has improved their figures by 17 to 47 points. If Star Sweep shows similar improvement, she will outrun her odds in this spot. Even without that evidence, I would find her somewhat interesting here given that she’s taking the drop from maiden special weight to maiden-claiming company and actually took a bit of money in her debut.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5,7
RACE 5: HABITUE (#2)
Despite attracting just 6 runners, this is an interesting little maiden race. I believe Pickle Rick is the horse to beat after finishing second in a similar spot back in January. He set an honest pace that day and battled on gamely in the lane. He was unable to fend off the classy winner Midnight Curfew, but he finished well clear of the others, with large gaps separating those behind him. I think a repeat of that performance makes him awfully tough for this field to beat. However, he does face some intriguing new rivals this time. The one that many will gravitate towards is Grumps Little Tots, who stretches out in distance for the first time. Looking purely at speed figures, he stacks up quite well with Pickle Rick. His last race was encouraging, as he broke a step slowly and closed into a slow pace, falling just a nose shy of upsetting the odds-on favorite. However, that came at 5 ½ furlongs and now he must stretch-out to a mile. His pedigree gives mixed signals. Sky Mesa is a versatile sire, and his dam has produced a few route winners. However, she’s also a half-sister to some quick sprinters, including 6-furlong A. G. Vanderbilt winner Sean Avery. I prefer Pickle Rick, but I think you have to use both of these horses. Yet this race is more complicated than choosing between just two contenders. My top pick is Habitue. He finished over 15 lengths behind Pickle Rick last time, but I think that margin was somewhat exaggerated by the race flow and the nature of the track surface. Habitue had trouble finding his stride in the early going, but he made an eye-catching move into fourth on the far turn before flattening out in the stretch. I thought it was an encouraging debut for a horse that should continue to progress with experience. He’s bred to have ability, as a Pioneerof the Nile-sired half-brother to Grade 1 winner Power Broker. I would expect this runner to show a bit more speed this time, and he’s bred to relish a wet track.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5
Trifecta: 2 with 4,5 with ALL
RACE 8: BAVARO (#5)
Honor Up and Syndergaard, who would have been among the top contenders in this field, will not participate in favor of Sunday’s Haynesfield. This morning we also learned that Build to Suit will not participate, reducing the field to just 7 runners. That probably leaves Eye Luv Lulu as the new favorite. He would have been helped by moisture in the surface, but we did not get enough precipitation to significantly alter the track surface. I had been worried that his career was finished after a series of disappointing efforts, but he got back on track last time with a decisive win. That was accomplished over a weaker field than the one he meets today, but he ran a competitive speed figure and goes out for a barn that always merits respect. I’m definitely using him, but I want to take a shot against him with Bavaro, who is stepping way up in class off the claim. I know he looks too cheap to compete against these horses, but he has run legitimately fast in his last two starts. His last two TimeformUS Speed Figures of 116 and 120 put him squarely in the mix, and he arguably could have run faster in both starts. Looking through the also-rans in those fields, the numbers totally stand up to scrutiny. Now he’s making his first start off the claim for Linda Rice, and it’s uncharacteristic for her to show this kind of confidence on the class rise. Bavaro was once cut out to be a very good horse, and things obviously went awry after his first couple of starts. Yet now he appears to be back in the best form of his career, and the Pace Projector indicates that he’s fast enough to outrun the other speeds to the lead. The other runner to consider, especially after scratches, is Celtic Chaos. This horse can be frustrating, since he often comes with a strong late rally, but rarely gets up to win. I was somewhat disappointed in his dull effort behind Honor Up last time, but perhaps the slight turnback to 6 furlongs in a race with more pace will suit him.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 7,10
Trifecta: 5 with 7,10 with 4,6,7,10
by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 2 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 2: 4 - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 3: 2 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 4: 3 - 1A - 6 - 5
Race 5: 3 - 5 - 6 - 9
Race 6: 2 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 7: 2 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 8: 4 - 1 - 8 - 2
RACE 2: FLATEXCEL (#4)
I suppose a discussion of this race should start with an assessment of morning-line favorite Discreet Mission. Some might feel that this gelding will be formidable since he has run a series of competitive speed figures and was a runaway winner the last time he raced for a tag. However, I’m skeptical of this runner. John Kimmel does not have strong numbers with this allowance-to-claiming move (2 for 27, 7 percent, $0.78 ROI over the past five years), and this runner’s last race on Dec. 20 is of great concern to me. He was never involved, and David Cohen appeared to ride him very tentatively. His form has gradually been tailing off, so I wonder if the physical issues that kept him off the track for two years may be catching up to him. In my opinion, the horse to beat is Rogue Nation. He seems to be improving for Rudy Rodriguez, and he’s getting some logical class relief. While his form is completely exposed, I nevertheless think that he may be able to win this race if he merely repeats his last effort. Yet there are some intriguing entrants who figure to go off at much bigger prices, and one in particular may significantly outrun his odds. Flatexcel looks overmatched at first glance but merits a closer look. This horse can barely stand up on a wet track, so I can excuse all of his performances on tracks rated less than fast. Considering the muddy going last time, he actually didn’t even run that poorly, as he was chasing two to three wide against a golden rail. He ran a competitive speed figure when he encountered a more favorable scenario two back. The main question for him is the stretch-out in distance, but he’s certainly bred to go long, and he’s handled route distances in the past. In fact, he won his maiden around two turns. Furthermore, I’m intrigued that he’s making his first start off the claim for new trainer Edmund Davis. This former Jimmy Jerkens assistant has gotten his limited number of starters to run above their prior form in the past month, and Flatexcel can win this race if he shows similar improvement.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,6,7
RACE 4: CARTHON (#3)
I’m picking against the favored entry, but I fully acknowledge that Blewitt and Storm Prophet are far and away the most likely winners of this contest. Blewitt is the one whom many will regard as most formidable, and I suppose he will win this race if he repeats his recent performance against open N1X company. However, I’ve never been the biggest fan of this runner, and he was allowed to sit a perfect trip stalking a pedestrian pace last time. I’m using him prominently, but I get the sense he’s going to be an underlay in this spot. In some ways, I actually prefer Storm Prophet. Rudy Rodriguez’s statistics first off the claim in dirt routes are fantastic, and this horse was wide every step of the way last time. Carthon is the third most likely winner, at best, but he’s going to get ignored on the tote board in the face of the aforementioned favorites. I believe this gelding has returned in better form this winter following a brief layoff, and I’m excited about this stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles. I’ve always felt that two turns would be best for this horse since he’s a steady galloper without any semblance of a turn of foot. Eric Cancel has ridden him aggressively in recent starts, and I’m hoping he can hustle him to the lead this time to set the pace, forcing Blewitt to stalk. Carthon’s recent speed figures give him a chance to pull off the upset, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s able to outlast them in the lane. Blugrascat’s Smile is the other horse to use. He actually ran quite well to be second after a wide trip last time, but I’m starting to get a little concerned that he’s lost his desire to win races.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,6
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3 with 5,6
RACE 7: SYNDERGAARD (#2)
Honor Up and Syndergaard have been cross-entered in Monday’s Hollie Hughes, but I would expect them both to run in this race instead. If Honor Up stays in this race, he is likely to go off as the favorite. He’s been in fantastic form ever since switching into the care of Michelle Nevin, having reeled off three victories in four starts for this barn. While Nevin has obviously improved his overall condition, I think the turnback in distance has been the key to this runner’s success. Shorter distances between 6 1/2 and seven furlongs just seem to be ideal, as he possesses a much more potent burst of late speed going those trips. However, now he must stretch out to a mile, and this barn does not have the strongest numbers with horses trying to win back-to-back races in stakes. I respect this runner, but I think this may be the time to take a shot against him at a short price. I prefer Syndergaard, who crossed the wire just a head behind Honor Up in the Say Florida Sandy last time. Whereas Honor Up got to close into honest fractions that day, Syndergaard was the one involved in that pace, chasing three wide throughout. Rajiv Maragh still had plenty of horse when they turned into the stretch, and Syndergaard responded gamely once Honor Up issued his challenge. Ultimately, Syndergaard couldn’t contain the winner’s momentum, but he was battling on gamely through the wire, showing that same gritty determination that we saw in his Champagne effort so long ago. I believe this 5-year-old is finally getting back to top form, and I’m actually less concerned about him getting the mile, given his steady running style and newfound ability to stalk the pace. It remains to be seen if the main track is still playing to inside runners. If so, he may have to be aggressively used to secure the early lead from Stoney Bennett, who is drawn to his outside. The other contender to consider is Twisted Tom, but his greatest asset is his stamina and I’m skeptical that he can reproduce his top form going a mile.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,6
Trifecta: 2 with 1 with 3,4,6
RACE 8: SARATOGA PROMISE (#4)
True Blue Giant is the horse to beat as he makes his second start following a troubled debut. While I acknowledge that this colt has a right to run much better second time out, I have concerns that he’s a bit of a trap in this race. While he was legitimately steadied on the backstretch last time, the runner just behind him Seven Is Heaven was actually far more affected in a chain reaction. True Blue Giant raced greenly thereafter, serving as a serious nuisance to Seven Is Heaven for the rest of their trips. While True Blue Giant finished just ahead of Seven Is Heaven, I would have strongly preferred that rival had he shown up in this race. True Blue Giant nevertheless did run better today’s foe Big Paddy Brown, despite the fact that the latter runner crossed the wire 1 3/4 lengths ahead of him. However, my main concern is rooted in some doubts about the overall quality of that Jan. 26 race. Both True Blue Giant and Big Paddy Brown would have lost by much larger margins had the winner been asked for run in the last eighth. Furthermore, these horses – particularly Big Paddy Brown – rode the rail for a portion of their trips, and I felt that the inside path was very much the place to be on Jan. 26. True Blue Giant feels like a decisive favorite in this spot, and I want to look elsewhere. There are a number of first time starters to consider, and the one that piques my interest is Saratoga Promise. These connections have limited success on the NYRA circuit, but trainer Paul Barrow is quite proficient with first time starters out of town. Over the past 5 years, he is 6 for 24 (25 percent, $3.23 ROI) with first time starters racing with Lasix in sprints. Saratoga Promise is bred to have some ability, since he’s by Violence and is out of a dam who is a half-sister to stakes winners Storm Mesa and She Be Classy. I liked the overall smoothness of this colt’s 10 3/5 seconds workout at the Fasig-Tipton sale from last May and he appears to have drilled well in the mornings in recent weeks. Furthermore, it’s a good sign to see a live rider like Jose Lezcano take the mount.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5,7,8
by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 3 - 5 - 1 - 4
Race 2: 2 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 3: 2 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 4: 8 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 5: 3 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 6: 11 - 12 - 2 - 8
Race 7: 2 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 8: 6 - 2 - 7 - 3
Race 9: 9 - 6 - 4 - 5
RACE 4: BECCA TAKES CHARGE (#8)
The horse to beat is probably Cheatham Hill, who disappointed as the 4-5 favorite in her second start on Jan. 11. She was heavily supported following her visually impressive debut, in which she closed to be second behind the subsequently stakes-placed filly Shelley Ann. Those looking to make an excuse for her last effort will note that she was forced wide around the far turn, but she still was supposed to have more of an answer in the lane. While trainer Jason Servis does many things well, he has poor numbers with this move. Over the past five years, he is just 3 for 25 (12 percent, $0.68 ROI) with maidens going from sprints to routes on the dirt. At a relatively short price, I’m against her. I strongly prefer the likely second choice, Becca Takes Charge. She didn’t run particularly well in her debut, but that’s typical of Linda Rice’s first-time starters. At least this filly showed a bit of speed as she chased an honest pace before tiring while drifting wide in the lane. That race should have served as a useful tightener, and now she stretches out to a mile for her second start. Unlike Servis, Rice sports outstanding numbers with this move. Over the past five years, she is 10 for 25 (40 percent, $2.60 ROI) with maidens going from sprints to dirt routes in their second starts. Despite the fact that this filly faded late in her debut, she’s actually bred to handle added ground as a daughter of Will Take Charge out of a dam who was bred to run long. Without an established front-runner in this field, Reylu Gutierrez should take advantage of this one’s natural speed over a track that has been favoring rail runners. At a bigger price, I also want to use fellow second-time starter Two Graces prominently. This filly did not do much running in her debut, as she belatedly passed some tired rivals in the lane as the race was falling apart. Yet, she galloped out with good energy and she is bred to improve with added distance while going out for connections that often get overlooked.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,5,6,7
Trifecta: 8 with 1,5 with 1,3,5,6,7
RACE 7: WEGOTOLDYOUGOTSOLD (#2)
Monteleone has to be considered the horse to beat as he seeks his fourth consecutive victory while steadily climbing the class ladder. However, he will face a new obstacle on Saturday – a fast track. This gelding clearly has a strong affinity for wet surfaces, particularly sealed ones, and he has gotten such going in all the victories during his win streak. Yet not only must he contend with a new surface, the waters get much deeper as he moves into N1X allowance company. His TimeformUS Speed Figures suggest that he stacks up with this group, but they don’t give him any kind of advantage. I’m somewhat against him, and I hold Tap Master in similar regard. He makes that same class move after beating starter-allowance foes last time, but he benefited from a fantastic trip that day. In my opinion, the two runners you want are those with proven form at this level. Royal Asset would be a massive threat were he to run back to his Dec. 15 performance, in which he was just a length behind subsequent stakes winner Honor Up. However, his most recent start was poor. I’m concerned that he took no money that day, and now Rudy reaches out to a second-tier rider. Therefore, my top pick is Wegotoldyougotsold. This gelding’s first two starts for the Bruce Levine barn would likely beat this field. He trounced Monteleone when they met on Nov. 30, and it was no disgrace losing to a freakish effort from Fully Vested in the slop two back. Some may be deterred by his seventh-place finish at 5-2 last time, but I think he had an excuse for that performance. While there was not a true golden rail on Jan. 26, horses racing inside did appear to have an advantage, and that was especially true during the race this horse exits. He was wide throughout and only finished two lengths behind the runner-up, as they were all far behind the rail-skimming winner. This time the Pace Projector is predicting a scenario that is far more favorable to front-runners, and he figures to work out a great trip stalking Royal Asset. I believe this runner is going to rebound with an improved performance this afternoon.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,5,6
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 3,4,5
RACE 8: FILIBUSTIN (#6)
The main difficulty for handicappers analyzing this Broadway is deciding how to assess Linda Rice’s entrants. Both are coming off significant layoffs and ran poorly prior to being sent to the sidelines. Both will generate some support in the wagering based on their prior form, and I’m concerned that one or both will need a start off the layoff. Holiday Disguise is probably the class of the field, but six furlongs has always been a bit short for her. This is the right distance for Startwithsilver, but I’m concerned that she’s not going to get the kind of pace setup that she requires. In some ways, Pauseforthecause is the horse to beat. She has a significant recency edge on the two Rice mares, and she’s been in excellent form. I thought her Iroquois performance was excellent, and I won’t hold her loss behind Kathryn the Wise in the slop against her. If she breaks well, which isn’t a guarantee for this filly, she should work out a good stalking trip. I’m using her prominently, but my top pick is the likely speed, Filibustin. The Pace Projector is not characterizing the dynamics of this race as either fast or slow, but it does indicate that this speedy filly should have the early lead to herself. She actually ran great in the Iroquois two back, setting an honest pace before fading in the last furlong. Her 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance makes her very competitive against this group. She didn’t quite get back to that level in her first start for the Gary Contessa barn last time, but I liked the way she finished up after relaxing on the lead. It hasn’t hurt to have speed in recent days, and I think Filibustin could be sitting on another big effort.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,7
RACE 9: SIMBASALLTROUBLE (#9)
Two of the runners likely to attract the most support in this finale are exiting the same Jan. 25 race at this level. That day, there is no doubt that Tazmonian Devil ran the best race, as he made a wide, premature move on the far turn and just flattened out in the lane while unable to get past favored Poker Game. Based solely on that performance, he is a top contender in this spot. However, his prior efforts were not nearly that encouraging, whereas Better Bank On It had previously run faster than he did when finishing third behind Tazmonian Devil on Jan. 25. I think Bettor Bank On It is likely to be favored in this spot given his overall body of work at this level, but I won’t be shocked if one of the bigger prices steps up to beat him, as Tazmonian Devil did last time. I’m using both of these horses, as well as Everything Pazible, who closed belatedly for fourth in that same race last time. Yet, this race also includes a few new faces who are stretching out for the first time, and I believe one in particular merits serious consideration. Simbasalltrouble didn’t take much money when he debuted at a tougher maiden claiming level on Jan. 1, and I didn’t think he did all that much running while crossing the wire far behind the winner in 5th. I was far more encouraged by what I saw out of him in his second appearance. Dropping to today’s $30,000 level, little went right for him during the race. The horse to his outside crossed over into his path soon after the start, forcing Ruben Silvera to steady to the back of the pack. The race was mostly dominated towards the front end, so Simbasalltrouble had little chance to make up ground. Nevertheless, he did make an eye-catching – if fleeting – wide move into contention on the far turn before flattening out while racing wide into the stretch. As I previously noted, you did not want to be too wide on Jan. 26, so Simbasalltrouble’s trip was never going to work out. Now he’s stretching out in distance, and he’s certainly bred to do so. He’s by versatile sire Frost Giant out of a dam who is a half-sister to seasoned dirt routers Empire Dreams and Dynamax Prime.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,4,5,6
by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 4 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 2: 5 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 3: 1 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 4: 3 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 5: 5 - 8 - 7 - 4
Race 6: 3 - 7 - 4 - 6
Race 7: 5 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 8: 6 - 7 - 9 - 1
RACE 1: RUCKSACK (#4)
If all the entrants in this maiden race replicate their recent form, Zealous is going to win by a wide margin. Not only has he run significantly faster speed figures than his competitors, he has done so while chasing home some fairly talented runners. Business Cycle, Yamano Maker, and Hero’s Welcome are all better than your average maiden special weight winners and would be odds-on to defeat this below-par field. So, is it just that easy? Perhaps it is, but I’m not inclined to swallow a very short price – perhaps even-money or lower – on a horse who has finished second in four consecutive starts. Horses like Zealous are not the kinds of heavy favorite on which savvy horseplayers should rely. So, who are the alternatives? Mutaraabit is an obvious contender off his Mid-Atlantic form, but there are some things I don’t like. He may have needed his return effort on Dec. 18, but he still underperformed against a field that was unquestionably weaker than this one. Since then, he’s been a vet scratch on Jan. 29. Furthermore, trainer Michael Pino has not won a race on the NYRA circuit since July 2016. I would instead give a second look to a couple of horses who finished behind Zealous on Dec. 28. While it’s unclear if the rail was actually dead that day, most riders did avoid racing inside over that sloppy surface. The two horses who spent the most time close to the rail in that race were Rucksack and Replicator, who both came up empty in the lane. Replicator will get bet merely due to his connections, but Rucksack may fall through the cracks off his dismal recent effort. Before that debacle, this horse had earned the second-fastest set of speed figures of any runner in this race. I think it’s a good sign that Ray Handal is keeping him at the special weight level rather than dropping back down to maiden-claiming company. If the main track is again tilted toward inside runners, as it has been for the past week, Rucksack may fall into the perfect trip.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,6
RACE 3: DIRTY BIRD (#1)
Despite attracting just five participants, this race is a pretty difficult handicapping puzzle. While all of the runners merit consideration, I’m somewhat skeptical of the likely favorite, Ma Meatloaf. She is the most experienced entrant, has kept the strongest company, and has run the fastest speed figures. However, the stretch-out to a mile is of great concern. She’s done her best work at shorter distances, and her lone attempt at seven furlongs – albeit against stakes company – did not help to allay my concerns. You have to use her defensively, but I’m somewhat against her at a short price. I actually prefer Jeremiah Englehart’s other entrant, Dirty Bird. This filly’s first couple of starts at six furlongs came up very slow on the speed-figure scale, but I think she had some excuses. She was facing a stakes-quality runner when she debuted behind Forgotten Hero in early November, and then she had a rough trip when first dropped in for a tag later that month. Some may write off her easy maiden win as a product of the sloppy track, but I thought she ran legitimately well that day, making an early move to the lead and winning with authority over a large field. She finished last against optional-claiming company in her next start, but that effort actually served to validate her maiden win since she was able to keep in touch with classier fillies and earned the best speed figure of her career. I’m not all that concerned about the distance for her, which is more than I can say about the other runners in this race. I also think it’s important to note that Jeremiah Englehart has outstanding numbers in this situation. Over the past 5 years, he is 32 for 57 (56 percent, $2.96 ROI) with horses dropping in claiming price by 50 percent or more and running back in less than 30 days on the dirt. Dirty Bird is my selection, but I could also include fillies like Saratoga Style, who was against the rail bias last time, and Bee’snbee’s, who may be improving at the right time.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5
Trifecta: 1 with 4,5 with ALL
RACE 4: BIZNESS BEAUTY (#3)
This race is fairly light on form, so the Danny Gargan-trained entry of Phil’s Babe and Avalina may end up going off as the favored entity. Avalina seems like the one that is well-meant, since leading rider Manny Franco is named to ride. While there’s no significant class in the most recent generation of her female family, her dam traces back to some strong bloodlines. Her third dam No Class – pun not intended – is the direct ancestress of champions Dance Smartly, Sky Classic, Regal Classic, and Smart Strike. Therefore, it’s probably not a good sign that she sold for just $15,000 as a yearling and is debuting for a $30,000 tag. Rather than settling on the entry, I’d prefer to search for some hidden clues among those with experience. Big Brown Cat figures to be dangerous due to her speed going this distance. However, she’s failed to hang on two straight starts a this level, fading in the last furlong each time. It’s not as if she can be expected to shake lookse up from this time given the presence of It’s a Shaw Thing and Controllingthegold, who both have flashed high speed in the first quarters of their races. While it can be dangerous to accept closers in races at this abbreviated distance, I’m hoping there’s enough pace to set up the late run of Bizness Beauty. In my estimation, she’s just the classiest member of this field, having put forth respectable efforts against tougher $50,000 open maiden claimers. I thought she put forth a strong late rally prior to the layoff on Sep. 20, and her return on Feb. 9 was not quite as bad as it seems. She was last of four, but she was also racing wide over a rail-biased track in a maiden special weight. Contessa was probably using that race as a tightener, and now she returns a mere 6 days later at the appropriate class level. If she takes any kind of step forward in her second start off the layoff, I think she’ll be difficult to hold off late.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4,6
RACE 7: CRIMSON FROST (#5)
While it’s not really my style to recommend likely favorites, I just feel that Crimson Frost has found the right spot and is a very likely winner. She’s coming off a couple of disappointing third-place finishes, but I believe she had legitimate excuses in both of those performances. She’s just not a sprinter, so I can forgive her for failing to get involved going 6 1/2 furlongs two back. Then last time, she was at the opposite end of the spectrum, as 1 1/8 miles is a bit beyond her range of ideal distances. Furthermore, she seems to give the best response when she closes outside in the stretch, and Junior Alvarado got her stuck inside behind tiring rivals from the three-eighths pole until deep stretch. This time, she’s back at her best distance, and she figures to work out a perfect trip, sitting a few lengths off a number of speedier rivals. Some may consider Jump Ruler, who is probably the biggest threat to the favorite. However, Crimson Frost easily defeated Jump Ruler when they last met going this distance on Dec. 7. Jump Ruler earned a formidable speed figure in her following start, but she was aided by a favorable pace scenario. I’m totally against the other horse who is likely to attract support, Face It. In my opinion, she was exposed last time out at Laurel when she actually faced horses of quality. While she earned respectable speed figures in her wins at Aqueduct, those victories came over vastly inferior foes. I think she’ll have a tough time putting away the other speeds in this spot, which should help set things up for Crimson Frost’s late run.
Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 5 with 2,4 with 2,3,4,6
by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 5 - 3 - 6 - 7
Race 2: 4 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 3: 2 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 4: 4 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 5: 2 - 3 - 5 - 7
Race 6: 4 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 7: 5 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 8: 3 - 8 - 2 - 1
RACE 6: RACHEL’S BLUE MOON (#4)
Despite only attracting six runners, this race may offer the best wagering opportunities on a day that lacks appeal for serious handicappers. I say that because there is a pair of fillies who together should attract the bulk of support, and I am against both of them. Honey Graeme may end up going off as the favorite off her recent win against starter allowance company. On the surface of things, it would appear that she is dropping in class to face $40,000 claimers. However, anyone viewing her last race with an ounce of scrutiny will notice that she only beat three rivals, two of whom barely finished the race. The race turned into a layup for her, as she worked out an absolutely perfect trip sitting in behind the speeds. I don’t expect her to repeat that performance against a far more competitive field. I’m also not particularly scared of the other horse that should take money, Letmetakethiscall. Some may argue that she needed her return race against slightly tougher company and can step forward, but I’m skeptical. She took money like she was supposed to show up last time and failed to lift a hoof. Going back to last year, I wasn’t thrilled with either of her victories, and I believe she looks better on paper than she actually is. I prefer the three outside runners. The horse to beat may be Danny Gargan’s other entrant, Our Girl Abby. She had little chance against the likes of Big Birthday last time, but her prior form makes her formidable in here, and she’s drawn well outside of the other speed. I’m using her, but my top pick is Rachel’s Blue Moon. It’s possible that she just doesn’t want to participate anymore, but you can make some excuses for her last two efforts. She was involved in taxing paces on both occasions. The fact that she barely finished her last race may deter some bettors, but her rider never asked her for run and basically eased her at the quarter pole, exaggerating the margin of defeat. Sometimes a turnback in distance can wake up horses like this. She’s never really been given a fair chance to be a dirt sprinter, and that may ultimately be what she wants to do. I also wouldn’t totally discount Parx shipper Nth Degree. I don’t love any of her races, but at least she’s relatively reliable in a race lacking trustworthy options.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5,6
Trifecta Box: 4,5,6
RACE 7: OUTPLAY (#5)
Make no mistake about it – if Ironclad repeats either of his two recent efforts since getting claimed by Danny Gargan, he is going to win this race. However, both of those performances came over sloppy, sealed tracks, which he clearly loves, and this time he will have to duplicate those efforts over fast going. He’s certainly handled dry dirt in the past, but all of the recent speed figures that justify his status as a likely odds-on favorite were earned over a sealed tracks, including a win at Keeneland last April. Actually, you have to go all the way back to the summer of 2017 to find a fast track performance that would be commensurate with his inevitably miniscule odds in this race. It’s also somewhat suspicious that Gargan is dropping him in class off that last win, given how fast he ran. I acknowledge that he’s the most likely winner, but I think you have to be at least somewhat skeptical given the circumstances. I’m taking a shot against him with Outplay. I don’t love this horse, but the Mertkan Kantarmaci barn is enjoying a very strong meet and the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be clearly in front through the early stages in a scenario favoring the leader. He was hindered by a fast pace against superior competition last time, and this stable has had success racing second off the claim in the past.
Win: 5
Trifecta: 5 with 1 with ALL
RACE 8: MIDNIGHT DISGUISE (#3)
This race features a rematch of the top five finishers from the Bay Ridge on December 30. Split Time has to be considered the horse to beat after winning that nine-furlong event. She made an impressive far turn move up the rail, catching many of her rivals off guard as she rushed into the lead at the quarter pole. She got a little leg weary in the late stages, but I suppose she had a right to get tired. The turnback to a one-turn mile should suit her and she’s versatile enough to work out a trip. However, looking at speed figures, she’s not really any faster than her main rivals and is going to be a short price. Of the Bay Ridge runners, I actually prefer No Hayne No Gayne, who chased an honest pace while racing wide throughout. This mare always hinted at possessing more ability than she was displaying, and it seems like she’s finally put it all together over the course of her last few starts. She was impressive winning at this distance against inferior rivals last time and the barn has been hot. I believe she will be formidable, but there’s an intriguing new addition to this field. I’m delighted to see Midnight Disguise back in the entries. This massive filly was one of my favorite horses from last winter at Aqueduct. While she’s returning in an ambitious spot, Linda Rice has done this before with her half-sister Holiday Disguise, who won this race off the same layoff following her Bouwerie win as a 3-year-old. When Midnight Disguise is at her best, I believe she’s better than this field. Fitness is a concern, but I’ve always thought she had the potential to improve with added maturity, and I’m excited to see how she’sav developed during the time away.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5,8
Trifecta: 3,8 with 3,8 with 1,2,5,7
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