Aqueduct TimeformUS Race Analysis

Picks & Plays for Saturday, April 20

by David Aragona

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 2:   5 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 3:   7 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 4:   7 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 5:   4 - 6 - 5 - 1
Race 6:   4 - 3 - 6 - 8
Race 7:   9 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 8:   7 - 5 - 8 - 9
Race 9:   4 - 8 - 1 - 11

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: INTERNET OF THINGS (#5)
The horse to beat in this maiden event is Invest, who goes out for Linda Rice after finishing second at short prices in each of his first two starts. His second start was much stronger than his debut, despite the fact that he lost that race by over 10 lengths. The major issue with this horse is his general lack of focus and tendency to overreact to jockey Franco’s cues. Perhaps Linda Rice’s decision to remove blinkers will do the trick. Over the past 5 years, she is 9 for 21 (43 percent, $4.65 ROI) with horses taking blinkers off. I’m using this horse, but he’s not one that I feel I can trust at a relatively short price. His main rival appears to be Bears Mafia. Distance is the major issue for this Bruce Levine trainee. He seemed to improve when turned back to 6 1/2 furlongs last time, as that performance was significantly better than his prior dirt attempt going a mile. It’s possible that he’s just improved since then, but I’m somewhat skeptical that he can reproduce that effort on just 8 days’ rest. Given my reservations with the two shortest prices, I’m taking a shot against them with Internet of Things. It’s unclear how much ability this colt actually possesses, but I think this is the right kind of spot for him. He was facing a pretty solid New York-bred maiden field when he debuted at Saratoga last year, and he ran like a horse that wanted no part of 6 furlongs. He lagged behind early and was finishing with some interest while never a serious threat to hit the board. He’s been given plenty of time since then and he comes into this race off a very steady series of works at Payson Park. He’s certainly bred to handle added ground, since he is a son of Mineshaft out of a dam whose only prior foal to win did so in a dirt route. Furthermore, her dam is a half-sister to the dams of two notable graded stakes winners, turf marathoner Tricky Escape and dirt router Ulanbator. With routine improvement, I think we’ll see a much better performance out of this colt.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,6

RACE 5: CANDYGRAM (#4)
There are two main players – Candygram and Hero's Welcome – in this 9-furlong allowance race. Some may prefer the so-called 'class of the field' Hero’s Welcome due to his superior prior speed figures and solid fourth-place finish in the Jazil Stakes going this distance. However, I’m somewhat skeptical that this 4-year-old can maintain his form, especially following his poor performance in the Stymie last time. I’m not way against him and will use him defensively, but I strongly prefer the other short price Candygram. This colt was forced to race from off the pace in his two sprint races at Gulfstream this winter, but he figures to control the pace here. His only prior win was earned in gate-to-wire fashion, and the Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. This is a horse whose trip two back I highlighted in my Horses to Watch segment on DRFTV. He ran better than his finishing position would indicate that day after chasing in a difficult spot and diving down to the rail late. Then last time he just got outrun in the early stages and was actually finishing quite well in a race that did not set up for closers. He’s never gone this far before, but his two route races from last summer give me hope that he will be able to negotiate this distance. The other horse that I would throw in at a bit of a price is King Cause. His form declined last summer, but he was also running way over his head in some graded stakes events. He figures to have improved since then and Dermot Magner has sent out a few live runners at Aqueduct during the past month.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,6
Trifecta: 4 with 5,6 with ALL

RACE 6: CLINT MAROON (#4)
If this Woodhaven Stakes stays on turf, it is likely to be contested over less-than-firm going, as there is significant rain in the forecast ahead of Saturday’s card. The horse to beat is clearly Forty Under, who makes his 3-year-old debut after closing out his 2018 campaign with a sixth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. While his finishing position was somewhat of a disappointment, this colt actually ran fairly well, chasing a fast pace before tiring over the yielding going. Prior to that, he had earned a field-best 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the Pilgrim and defeated a stakes-quality field in his Saratoga maiden win. If he runs back to either of those efforts, he will be very difficult for this field to handle. Todd Pletcher has entered two horses who can challenge the favorite. Empire of War brings solid credentials, having won both of his turf starts, including last fall’s Awad Stakes over subsequent Grade 3 winner A Thread of Blue. However, regular rider Manny Franco lands on Forty Under instead. I actually prefer his stablemate Clint Maroon. Unlike the two aforementioned runners, Clint Maroon is not coming off a layoff. He steadily improved his form throughout the winter at Gulfstream, culminating in a visually impressive allowance score last time out. This gelding has always been cut out to be a nice horse, but it’s taken him a few starts to put it all together. Whereas both of his main rivals have experience over yielding ground, Clint Maroon has only encountered firm going in his turf starts. Yet given his European pedigree, I’m optimistic than he is up to the challenge.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,6
Trifecta: 4 with 3,6 with 3,5,6,8

RACE 8: ALPHADORA (#7)
Newly Minted and Stonesintheroad are likely to vie for favoritism in this Park Avenue division of the New York Stallion Stakes. The former made quite a splash in her debut for Linda Rice just last week. Despite getting dismissed at nearly 9-1, she burst forth from the gate with purpose and never looked back, easily drawing off from a solid maiden field. Her 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance stacks up well against Stonesintheroad’s best numbers, and Rice typically gets horses to improve out of their debuts. The only question mark for this talented filly is the seven-day turnaround. I’ve never been the biggest fan of her main rival, Stonesintheroad. She had favorable circumstances in her first three starts and faced adversity for the first time in last month’s Cicada. While she was hardly disgraced in defeat, she showed that she can be vulnerable to a serious pace rival. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, with these two aforementioned fillies likely to hook up on the front end. They may be talented enough to survive an early duel, but I believe there is at least one stretch runner who could have a say in the outcome. Alphadora is still a maiden, but I believe she belongs in a race like this. This filly ran better than it seems in her debut, when she was wide against a rail bias, and two back, she finished well from off the pace to just miss. She finally seemed to put things together last time with the addition of blinkers, running a career-best 95 TimeformUS Speed Figure. However, a questionable ride prevented her from winning that day, as she made a premature move to the lead and was seemingly eased up late. I like the slight turnback in distance and believe she can be effective from off the pace for low-profile connections.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 5,8,9
Trifecta: 5 with 6,8,9 with 7

RACE 9: BANKIT (#4)
The two main players in this Times Square division of the New York Stallion Stakes are Blindwillie McTell and Bankit. The former was given a brief layoff following a pair of stakes wins in the winter and returns to action in a loaded field. Rain in the forecast is not a concern for this son of Posse, as he handled a sloppy track without issue in his December stakes victory, which also served as his maiden win. His two 105 TimeformUS Speed Figures are among the highest in this field, and he figures to have only improved with added maturity. The only concern is his fitness since he will likely to have to outduel speedy rivals Kosciusko and Hushion on the front end. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and such a scenario should aid his main rival, Bankit. This horse is finally getting back to reality after his connections dreamed of qualifying him for the Kentucky Derby. He belongs with New York-breds, and he figures to appreciate this turnback in distance. He handled a mile back in October, but that was a one-turn race. This sprint distance should be right up his alley, and he’s developed an effective closing style in recent months. Some may be concerned that those attempts against graded stakes competition will have affected his confidence, but I believe those recent losses will merely help to ensure that he’s a viable price. Anything at or above 2-1 odds would be fair on this logical contender.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,8,11
Trifecta: 4 with 8 with 1,2,5,7,11

Picks & Plays for Friday, April 19

by David Aragona

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 1/1A - 3 - 5
Race 2:   4 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 3:   1 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 4:   2 - 4 - 1 - 6
Race 5:   7 - 11 - 9 - 4
Race 6:   2 - 1 - 4 - 7
Race 7:   2 - 7 - 8 - 5
Race 8:   3 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 9:   9 - 10 - 5 - 1

TOP PLAYS

RACE 3: HER ROYAL HIGHNESS (#1)
There are only five fillies entered for turf in this Memories of Silver, but all have a legitimate chance. The two likely to vie for favoritism are trained by Chad Brown. Both exit the Florida Oaks, and neither one worked out a particularly comfortable trip in that roughly run race. Blowout did well to be second after racing two wide much of the way. She got out into the clear a bit earlier than her stablemate La Feve in the lane and took advantage of that opportunity. While it was encouraging to see her run so well in just her second career start, I prefer La Feve on this occasion. This filly has run better than it seems in both of her U.S. starts. She was left with too much ground to make up in the Sweetest Chant, which was dominated by horses racing toward the front end. Then last time, even after she found daylight at the eighth pole, she was forced to rally in very tight quarters approaching the finish. I believe she can do better with a more favorable trip, and I view her as the horse to beat. While I’m using the Brown pair, I actually want to take a shot with a horse who finished behind them at Tampa. Her Royal Highness was making her turf debut that day and clearly demonstrated that she handles this surface. She was racing behind Brown’s fillies in the early going and had to swing wide approaching the stretch, losing ground while the other two waited to reach the lane before tipping out for running room. Based on her prior dirt efforts, Her Royal Highness has the speed to make the lead here in what is basically a paceless affair. Graham Motion and Manny Franco would be wise to take advantage of this rail draw and try to secure a forward position. She may not possess the same turn of foot as others, but she’s capable of sustaining a run and finishing with power.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3 with ALL

RACE 4: ARCHUMYBABY (#2)
I suppose Shimmering Moon is the horse to beat as she drops back to this New York-bred optional-claiming level after trying open company last time. While she was hardly disgraced in defeat, she really had no excuse to lose that race after opening up a clear lead in the lane. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will be clearly in front once again in a situation favoring the early pacesetter. However, I find her hard to trust at a relatively short price. Her two main rivals appear to be Hay Field and Archumybaby. Hay Field would obviously win this race if she got back to any of her races from 2018. However, she was extremely disappointing in her return on Feb. 1, and she didn’t run that much better against starter-allowance company March 30. She was in position to win and just could not fend off No Deal in the late stages. I find her difficult to endorse as a potential second choice. Therefore, I’m landing on Archumybaby. If this filly runs back to her win in the Videogenic Stakes last time, she is going to collect another victory. She really had no business winning that race since her form was vastly inferior to the favorite, Summer Punch. That rival took a clear lead into the final eighth, and Archumybaby put in a furious stretch rally to run her down. She has clearly improved off the claim for Gary Gullo, and this step up in class suggests that she’s continuing to do well.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,6

RACE 5: ORBILICIOUS (#7)
Pound Note may be the favorite here despite drawing a difficult outside post position. She was facing some decent fillies in Florida and ran respectably in those races against open company. She should appreciate the return to New York-breds, and it’s a good sign that she’s attracted top rider Irad Ortiz. I’m definitely using her, but I’m concerned about her trip from this slot. This race is fairly wide open among the rest of the field. Smiles From Sadie will attract support, but she has a case of seconditis, and her lone turf start was lackluster. Summer Squeeze could win this race if she ran back to her lone prior turf route, but she’s missed plenty of time since that race. I want to take a shot with a longshot. Orbilicious would have intrigued me wherever she showed up after her last two trips, but I’m actually quite pleased that she’s been entered in a turf race. She ran much better than it seems two back when she was bumped hard and spotted the field a couple of lengths at the start. Then last time, she again was off toward the back of the pack but then was unwisely rushed up in a premature move. She’s in much better form than it seems, and I believe she’ll appreciate this switch to grass. She’s sired by the decent turf influence Orb, and her dam was clearly best on turf, making 17 of her 19 starts on that surface and winning twice. Eric Cancel needs to deliver a more patient ride this time to be successful. The other horse that I would use prominently is Codrington. This filly gets a significant trainer change to Danny Gargan, and it's important to point out that her turf races last fall at Belmont were not nearly as poor as they seem given her difficult trips in those spots. She can make some noise here at a price.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,9,11,12

RACE 8: RALLY CAP (#3)
I believe Rally Cap is the most likely winner of this race, and I strongly prefer him to the other short-priced alternatives. This horse makes his first start as a new gelding in this spot, and I find it encouraging that he put forth an eye-catching bullet workout last week following that change. He doesn’t have to improve much on his prior form to be considered quite formidable against this crew. He defeated main rival Kadens Courage two back when only beaten by the stakes-bound runner London House. Rally Cap was somewhat disappointing last time when he finished third as the favorite, but he was also racing wide in a race where the pace never truly developed. The aforementioned Kaden’s Courage has also run some competitive speed figures, but his recent performance suggest that he may be heading in the wrong direction. He had little excuse when losing to Rally Cap two back and then didn’t handle the stretch-out last time. The fact that he’s running in this spot – for a $60,000 tag – instead of the New York-bred stakes tomorrow does not exactly inspire confidence as to his prospects here. Linda Rice entered a pair of recent maiden winners, who are both making their first starts off the claim. Most will consider Stink Man to be the bigger threat, but I’m somewhat troubled that the horse he defeated has come back to run poorly in his subsequent starts. I prefer It’s Mo Joke, who was dominant in victory last time and may be able to improve for these new connections.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,6
Trifecta: 3 with 2,6 with 2,4,5,6

Picks & Plays for Thursday, April 18

by David Aragona

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 2:   4 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 3:   6 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 4:   3 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 5:   3 - 8 - 2 - 7
Race 6:   9 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 7:   4 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 8:   3 - 6 - 2 - 1
Race 9:   11 - 1 - 6 - 7

TOP PLAYS

RACE 3: BOOTLEGGER (#6)
County Court may go off as the slight favorite in this conditioned claiming race as he drops in class for Shug McGaughey. This gelding ran well to win the last time he raced for a tag last fall at Belmont, but he benefited from favorable circumstances that day. County Court has always been best over turf courses with some give to them, and he has needed at least nine furlongs to put forth a top effort. I’m somewhat skeptical that he can repeat that effort going this distance, especially in a race that does not feature an abundance of early speed. His main rival may be Herecomesyourman, who returns on relatively short rest after winning an N2L race just 13 days ago. This horse has always had some ability but always had trouble finding the winner’s circle. If he’s gotten over that issue, he’s a serious threat to win right back, but the lack of pace could hinder him as well. Rudy Rodriguez entered a pair of runners for turf. Where’s Rudy is a bit of an enigma as he tries this surface for the first time. While he is a son of Gio Ponti, his dam’s family is really more dirt-oriented. I strongly prefer Rudy’s other horse, Bootlegger. This ridgling performed admirably over the winter even though dirt probably isn’t his preferred surface. I think he’s going to appreciate getting back on grass for this race, and I love the rider switch to Irad Ortiz. This horse’s prior turf starts for Rudy are not nearly as bad as they seem. He was facing a strong field for this level back on Oct. 26, and then he ran off on the lead on Dec. 1. He is fast enough to make the front here, and I’m confident that Ortiz will be able to ration out his speed this time. In his current form, I believe he is the horse to beat.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 6 with 3,4 with 1,2,3,4

RACE 6: WICKED GRIN (#9)
I suppose Scotty Brown will attraction some attention as he returns to turf following a layoff. He ran some of the best speed figures in this field on turf last season, but all of those races came at route distances. He doesn’t strike me as a horse who will be better off sprinting, so this placement going 6 furlongs upon return feels like a prep for a stretch-out. I want to look elsewhere if he is a short price. I’m most interested in the horses that sprinted on turf as 2-year-olds last season, and the one who performed best in those races is Wicked Grin. I thought this gelding’s Saratoga debut was very encouraging, as he chased the pace throughout and almost won despite going 2- to 3-wide over a course that was favoring rail runners. He was not quite as effective in his second start, but he had a somewhat uncomfortable trip and didn’t seem to appreciate yielding going. Two subsequent dirt experiments and failed. Now he returns in the correct spot as a 3-year-old while making his first start on Lasix. Over the past 5 years, Christophe Clement is 18 for 72 (25 percent, $2.35 ROI) with maidens on turf racing with Lasix for the first time. I’ll primarily use him with Qian B C, who exits the same pair of turf races from last summer, as well as first time turfer Moo Lah, who is bred to handle this surface.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 4,5,6,10

RACE 7: BON RAISON (#4)
Reed Kan is a deserving favorite as he steps back up to this optional claiming level. He lost in similar conditions two back, but he was facing a slightly tougher group and he may have disliked the slop that day. Reed Kan will obviously be difficult to reel in if he reproduces his most recent start, in which he dominated a starter allowance field in fast time. However, now he will have to two top efforts back-to-back, something he has struggled to do in the past, and he will have to negotiate an extra half-furlong. I believe he’s faster than Seethisquick to his inside, but there are some formidable late runners to deal with this time. One of those is Long Haul Bay, but I don’t trust this alternative. He’s had many stops and starts in his career and he was incapable of reproducing his best efforts the last time we saw him. Runaway Lute is just as untrustworthy, but he is coming into this race off a series of eye-catching workouts. I’ll use both of them defensively, but my top pick is Bon Raison. He defeated a much softer field when he won the Peeping Tom last month, but he did so by finishing powerfully going this distance while earning a respectable speed figure. All of this colt’s efforts since being transferred into Carlos Martin’s barn have been solid, and he had excuses in his two losses against tougher company. He figures to work out a great trip stalking the speed and I believe he’ll be sitting in the perfect spot if Reed Kan tires in the last sixteenth.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,5,6

RACE 8: ROSEBORO (#3)
There are two debut winners making their second career starts in this race. The slight favorite might be Holey Matrimony. This Union Rags colt ran very fast in his debut at 5 1/2 furlongs, which should come as no surprise given that he is a half-brother to the accomplished sprinter Marriedtothemusic. He also gets a huge rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz for this second start. My only reservation is that we saw the second- and third-place finishers out of that March 24 race return here last weekend, and both seemed to regress, so perhaps Holey Matrimony’s first start is not quite as strong as it seems. I prefer the other recent debut winner, Roseboro. This 4-year-old colt didn’t get away from the gate cleanly, as he was shuffled back soon after the start. However, once Manny Franco steered him into the clear on the backstretch, he quickly started to run by the entire field. He sustained that prolonged rally into the stretch, finishing up with plenty of energy as he ran by the leaders in the final eighth of a mile. While the speed figure came back slower than Holey Matrimony’s, Roseboro gave the impression that he’s capable of running faster in subsequent starts. I’m keying on him, but I would also use Elios Milos, who returns from a layoff for Jorge Abreu. He was visually impressive in his debut last summer but has been off since July.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,6
Trifecta: 3 with 2,6 with 1,2,4,6,7

RACE 9: BIG PADDY BROWN (#11)
Tizgame figures to attract the most support in this finale as he transitions to turf for Linda Rice. He made his first couple of starts on dirt in March, but this is the surface he should relish. Tiznow is a decent turf influence, and his dam has produced a pair of capable turf winners, First Charmer and Southern Gal. This expensive colt has a right to improve significantly with this surface switch, and if he does, he is unlikely to lose this race. However, he also figures to be a short price, and it is rarely wise to accept prohibitive favorites trying something for the first time. His main rivals appear to be Bobby Man and True Blue Giant, but neither one really excites me. The former ran fine in his debut on turf last fall, but that race was falling apart in the late stages over yielding ground. True Blue Giant has been well supported in his first three starts but does not have significant turf pedigree. I’m instead taking a shot with Big Paddy Brown, who is finally getting a chance to race on grass. This colt was entered for turf in his Oct. 20 debut before that race was washed onto the dirt. He didn’t run well, but he subsequently improved while racing over the main track this winter. Despite those competitive dirt efforts, I still believe turf is his true calling. He’s by the decent turf influence Big Brown, and his dam’s only win came sprinting on grass. I won’t be surprised if he shows more speed as the blinkers go on for this race. The only other horse I would throw in is Noble Cause. He worked very well over the synthetic track at OBS as a 2-year-old and he has enough pedigree to handle the turf.

Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,6,7,10

Picks & Plays for Wednesday, April 17

by David Aragona

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 1/1A - 3 - 5
Race 2:   2 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 3:   2 - 1 - 4 - 1A - 6
Race 4:   10 - 2 - 9 - 11
Race 5:   1 - 6 - 7 - 5
Race 6:   5 - 2 - 8 - 4
Race 7:   4 - 7 - 1 - 6
Race 8:   4 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 9:   4 - 6 - 2 - 11

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: HIGH COMMAND (#2)
This seems like a race that could produce an upset. Preternatural is clearly the horse to beat as he returns from a layoff for Rudy Rodriguez, but he’s not exactly the most trustworthy favorite. He actually ran fairly well when last seen at Saratoga in August, contesting a fast pace before fading. A similar effort would almost certainly beat this field, but it’s not a good sign that Rudy is bringing him back for a mere $25,000 tag. If he fails to show up with a top effort, this race is totally wide open. The two other horses that figure to attract support are wild cards. Connolly’s Beads was extremely disappointing as the heavy favorite when he returned from a layoff last time and is hardly formidable here if he’s unable to improve upon that performance. First time starter Milvado is a homebred coming into this cheap maiden claimer off slow workouts, so he’s not exactly a daunting presence. Therefore, I feel comfortable taking a shot with High Command. This gelding’s debut was not nearly as poor as it seems. He was actually racing up close soon after the start, but reacted badly to racing in tight quarters on the backstretch. He backed out of that position and then seemed to bear out while avoiding kickback heading into the turn. He appeared hopelessly beaten at the top of the stretch, but actually started running again in the late stages, nearly passing the third-place finisher late before galloping out well. He figures to do better second time out with that experience under his belt, and he may not have to run that fast to win this race. I don’t mind the slight stretch-out to 7 furlongs given that he is a full-brother to Ten Twenty Nine, who is best at a mile.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,7

RACE 3: AMERICANO (#2)
The Repole-owned, Pletcher-trained entry is likely to go off as the prohibitive favorite in this turf claimer. False Info is the one that many will regard as the stronger half of this pair as he drops in class out of tougher starter-allowance races. He ran off on the lead two back before fading as the favorite, and then failed to make a late impact last time after a wide trip. Both of those performances were decent, but I’m not convinced that he’s necessarily going to win this race by merely repeating them. The most obvious of alternative is Honorable Hero. This horse was somewhat fortunate to break his maiden at 28-1 last fall at Belmont, given that he rode an advantageous inside path to victory. Yet he then validated his improvement on turf with a respectable showing in the Awad against tougher company. He’s now getting back on the right surface, and Gary Contessa is placing him at a realistic class level. I’d use him, but I prefer another horse getting a second chance on turf. Americano’s only prior grass attempt came in his second start at Saratoga, and he failed to make an impact after racing greenly with a wide trip. It also didn’t help that he was facing a stakes-quality field on that occasion. He’s focused on dirt races since then with mixed results, but I think he deserves another shot on this surface. His dam was a turf and synthetic specialist, winning over $600,000 in her career, and this gelding’s best sibling was a turf horse. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will make the early lead from this inside slot in a situation favoring the front-runner.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,6

RACE 4: MRS STINKMAN (#10)
The two horses likely to attract the most support among those with prior turf form are Double Medal and Avocado. I strongly prefer the Jonathan Thomas trainee, who ships up from Florida. Double Medal was unfortunate to run into the talented Beautiful Lover last time, and actually did well to hang on for third after contesting the pace. She should appreciate this turnback to 6 furlongs given her prior efforts sprinting, and the drop in class is quite significant as well. She’s the horse to beat, but I think there are some horses switching to turf who could make an impact in this race. One of those is Appreciate, who earned some of the highest turf speed figures in this field when running at this level last summer. Her recent dirt performances are poor, but she could be a serious factor as she gets back on the right surface this time. I’m using her, but my to pick is first time turfer Mrs Stinkman. This filly does not have the kind of obvious turf pedigree that will attract serious tote support, but there are indications that she will appreciate this surface switch. She traveled very well over the synthetic surface at OBS when she sold as a 2-year-old, and didn’t seem to get over the dirt nearly as smoothly in her debut last time. While her dam was more of a dirt horse, she has produced a turf winner and is herself a half-sister to a Grade 3 winner on turf. Furthermore, Cairo Prince is off to a great start with his turf runners as a sire. He is 14 for 84 (17%) with his turf starters and 26 for 222 (12%) with starters on all other surfaces.

Win/Place: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 2,3,9,11

RACE 7: CATCH A CAB (#4)
The scratch of Dowse's Beach, who appeared to be the stronger half of the Michael Dubb entry, makes this race significantly more wide-open. That said, there is still a good case to be made for his stablemate We Should Talk, who has gotten limited turf opportunities in his career. It appears that he's been rested up for this return to grass in his first start off the claim for Jorge Abreu. I'll definitely use him, but I still believe better value lies elsewhere in this field. I want to take a shot with Catch a Cab as he returns from the layoff. This horse got into very good form last summer for Mark Casse, winning three straight races at Belmont before running poorly against open company. He made his first start off the claim for the Toscano barn in October, and he actually ran quite well. He made a strong move into contention approaching the quarter pole and briefly lost momentum while trying to squeeze through between horses. All things considered, I thought he ran well to just miss finishing second that day. If I’m right about Dowse’s Beach, Catch a Cab can win this race by merely repeating his last effort. He’s clearly the second fastest horse in the field in terms of speed figures. The layoff is obviously a concern, but Toscano has won with a couple of turf horses off similar breaks in the past. The other horse I want to use prominently is Royal Asset. He might be the speed of this field and he's run many competitive speed figures on turf, but you have to be somewhat concerned about his lackluster recent form.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,6,7
Trifecta: 4 with 1,7 with ALL

RACE 9: ANNETTE’S HUMOR (#4)
This finale is especially difficult to decipher, since so few of the entrants have prior turf form. Smart Throb has arguably run the best turf races, but she’s yet to win in 14 career starts and is hard to trust coming off a layoff. You could say the same thing about 20-start maiden Youth Gone Wild, who is even more inconsistent. Sander's Empire is slightly more appealing, having made just 3 turf starts during her career. She ran well the last time she raced in a true turf sprint in her debut at Saratoga, but a long time has passed since then. Therefore, I’m most interested in horses trying turf for the first time. The one that may attract the most attention is Mom’s Kisses for Rudy Rodriguez. She gets needed class relief off the layoff, attracts Irad Ortiz, and has plenty turf pedigree. I’m using her, but I actually prefer Rudy’s other horse Annette’s Humor. At least this filly has shown some speed in her prior starts. She’s a bit cheaper than many of her rivals, but I get the sense that she’s a hard-trying filly and she’s bred to make this transition to turf. Shackleford isn’t the worst turf influence, her dam was best on turf, and she is a half-sister to a turf winner. Furthermore, her second dam was a 3-time turf winner, so there is plenty of grass influence in this female family. She should be dangerous on the front end in a race lacking a clear speed rival. The other horse I want to use prominently at a big price is Minit Maus. Her dirt races are awful, but she is bred to love the turf. She’s by turf sire Courageous Cat and her lone half-sister to race is 2-time turf sprint winner Buffalo Miss. She’s another one that could show improved speed on this surface.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,5,6,11
Win/Place: 6

Picks & Plays for Sunday, April 14

by David Aragona

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 2:   3 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 3:   1 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 4:   6 - 8 - 4 - 7
Race 5:   4 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 6:   5 - 2 - 8 - 6
Race 7:   2 - 4 - 10 - 6
Race 8:   9 - 3 - 6 - 8
Race 9:   1 - 2 - 6 - 7

TOP PLAYS

RACE 4: DUNCASTLE (#6)
The two runners likely to attract the most support are Front Run the Fed and Wild Medaglia d’Oro. The former has made two starts on turf and run well on both occasions. He closed well to be second to stablemate Party with Friends over this course last fall. His late kick seemed to be dulled when they stretched him out around two turns at Gulfstream in December, so this turnback to a sprint distance makes sense. Wild Medaglia d’Oro has never started on turf, but he’s certainly bred to handle it. He’s by solid grass influence Medaglia d’Oro, and his dam was a Grade 3 stakes winner on turf. He showed a ton of promise sprinting on dirt at Saratoga last summer before they tried to stretch him out, so he should also benefit from a turnback. I’m using both of these horses prominently, but there’s a third contender who is likely to be an overlay. Duncastle’s turf races are buried among six lackluster starts over dirt, but both of those efforts were quite good. He finished a decent second behind the well-regarded All Systems Go in his five-furlong debut, and he ran extremely well in his only other grass start last September. That day, he was off to a stumbling start and found himself toward the back early. Pablo Fragoso, as he is wont to do, launched a premature move at around the half-mile pole, carrying Duncastle to the lead at the top of the stretch. Unsurprisingly, he had nothing left for the last eighth, but he still hung on well to be fourth against a salty field. Six furlongs seems like a perfect distance for him, and I like the rider switch to Eric Cancel off the Tom Morley claim.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,7,8

RACE 5: THE RIGHT PATH (#4)
Standard Deviation seems like the horse to beat as he makes his second start off the layoff. He actually ran quite well in his return race at Gulfstream, chasing the highly regarded colt Global Campaign to the finish. That rival returned to run fairly well in the Fountain of Youth next time out. Standard Deviation seems like the type of runner who will continue to improve with experience. He generated some buzz when he finished a late-running third in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, but he was biting off more than he could chew in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in his subsequent outing. Chad Brown is taking it slower with this son of Curlin as a 3-year-old, and he figures to be formidable in this spot. However, he’s facing another colt who is dropping out of a Derby prep. The Right Path has run just as fast as Standard Deviation and will also benefit from the class relief. The Right Path’s early speed could make him especially dangerous as he cuts back to a one-turn mile. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. He never got to show that speed last time when he was cut off at the start of the Tampa Bay Derby. I thought his prior effort against allowance company was quite good, as he battled on gamely through the lane despite getting shut off at the eighth pole. If Jose Lezcano puts him on the lead, it may be difficult for Standard Deviation to reel him in.

Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 1,2
Trifecta: 4 with 1 with 2,3,6

RACE 6: AWESOME ADVERSARY (#5)
Legion Storm may be favored here off his set of superior speed figures on the dirt, but I’m not convinced that this horse will improve with the surface switch. Roman Ruler is not the best turf influence and his female family is really more dirt-oriented. Among the likely short prices, I prefer Mr. Vincent. This horse ran well in one of his turf starts as a 2-year-old. His surrounding efforts on that surface were decidedly less encouraging, but he may have been slightly overmatched against maiden special weight company. While he’s switching back to the right surface here, you have to be somewhat concerned about the lengthy layoff between those prior grass efforts and his recent return at Parx. I’m using him, but I prefer Awesome Adversary at a better price. This horse could barely put one foot in front of the other when he made his debut at Saratoga last summer and it took him a long time to figure out how to run competitively. Yet, it is worth noting that during his development he did take a big step forward as soon as his connections put him on turf. That should not come as a major surprised given that his dam was best on the turf and he is a half-brother to multiple turf winner My Cara Mia. Since late last year, he has run significantly faster in his recent dirt starts while showing improved speed. With no clear front-runners in this field, he could find himself sitting a great trip up close to the pace. He’s my top selection, but I also want to use one of the first time turfers, Monaghan. This Michelle Nevin trainee has done little running in his pair of starts, but his pedigree suggests that he is supposed to improve with this switch to grass.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,6,8

RACE 7: PROXIMATE TO POWER (#2)
This is perhaps the most competitive race on the card, as there is no clear favorite in this 10-horse field. I suppose Crea’s Bklyn Law will attract some support as he drops in class with superior speed figures, but he may be heading in the wrong direction and I’m skeptical about him getting the distance. The horse to beat may be Special Story. He’s been in solid form since getting claimed by Greg DiPrima and is arguably meeting a softer field than the one he faced at this level last time. Tale of Mist is somewhat interesting as he stretches out in distance once again after focusing on sprints in all of his prior starts for the Toscano barn. The only problem with him is that he rarely wins. Desert Lights was visually impressive against a weaker group last time, but he also has to prove that he can handle a mile. I’d use all of these runners in some capacity, but my top pick is Proximate to Power. I know he looks slower than the top contenders, but I think he’s run better than it seems in each of his last three starts. He didn’t get any pace to close into three back on Jan. 12, and then he was asked to go too far on Feb. 18 where he actually held on well to be second. He made his first start off the claim for Edmund Davis last time and I thought he ran much better than his speed figure indicates. He was badly hampered at the start as he broke slowly. He was still far back at the top of the stretch, but he made a long, sustained run to get into second and quickly galloped out past the field just after the wire. I get the sense that this one-turn mile distance may be perfect for him and I’m hoping he can sit a bit closer to the pace this time as long as he breaks cleanly.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,6,10

RACE 8: QUEEN OF BERMUDA (#9)
This Mizdirection Stakes is likely to be significantly altered by scratches, as Wesley Ward is only expected to start Mae Never No of the three fillies he entered. That should leave Queen of Bermuda as the clear favorite, and I’m not trying to beat this filly. She was put through a rigorous 2-year-old campaign last year, making 11 starts within six months. Despite modest beginnings, she kept improving through the summer, eventually collecting a Group 3 score in England and a Group 2 placing in France. She entered last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint as an outsider, but she ran a remarkable race under difficult circumstances. Breaking from a disadvantageous outside post position, she was steadied on the backstretch while jockeying for early position. She was then forced four wide all the way around the far turn, losing significant ground. She appeared to be hopelessly beaten at the top of the stretch, but she put in a relentless rally to be fourth, just 1 3/4 lengths behind Chelsea Cloisters. This filly was transferred to Graham Motion’s barn for a U.S. campaign following that effort. She gets Lasix for her 3-year-old debut. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting that she will get a fast pace to close into. Her main rival is Golconda, who should appreciate the turnback in distance for Chad Brown after meeting a solid field in the Herecomesthebride. I would also use Fashion Faux Pas, who should appreciate the switch to turf given her pedigree, and Eyeinthesky, whose best races have been her turf sprints.

Win: 9
Trifecta: 9 with 3 with 4,6,8
Trifecta: 9 with 4,6,8 with 3

Picks & Plays for Saturday, April 13

by David Aragona

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 2 - 3
Race 2:   7 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 3:   2 - 1 - 6 - 3
Race 4:   1 - 5 - 9 - 7
Race 5:   2 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 6:   2 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 7:   2 - 7 - 8 - 1
Race 8:   1 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 9:   2 - 7 - 10 - 11

TOP PLAYS

RACE 1: DRIVEN TO COMPETE (#4)
Timber Ghost will probably be favored in this opener. His 4-year-old debut was not a particularly fast race for the level and he had to be hard-ridden to keep up with the leaders on the far turn. Timber Ghost never appeared to be traveling well and only finished second because the race fell apart in the late stages. Jimmy Jerkens has strong numbers with horses stretching out to dirt routes for the first time, but I still don’t think this horse is quite as formidable as his form from late 2018 would suggest. Exulting has already won at this level and is dropping down after losing a few races against stakes-quality foes. A one-turn mile is the ideal distance for him and he ran better than it seems when wide against a rail bias last time. My top pick is Driven to Compete. I like that he’s drawn outside of his main pace rival and we already know he can get the distance. He earned a series of competitive speed figures through the early part of last year before something happened that sent him to the sidelines on June 1. He lost his return at Parx last month at odds of 2-1, but he actually ran very well under the circumstances. He was contesting an honest early pace and outdueled a pair of runners who each lost by 16 and 19 lengths. Driven to Compete battled on until the late stages before succumbing to two closers. The 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned for that effort puts him in the mix here, and he’s likely to step forward in his second start off the layoff.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3

RACE 3: WONDER STONE (#2)
This Bridgetown only drew five horses entered for turf, but it’s still a fascinating race. Regally Irish is probably the horse to beat as he attempts to win his second consecutive start for Graham Motion. He actually ran quite well last time out at Tampa Bay Downs, as he set a legitimate pace on the front end and battled back gamely in the stretch when challenged by Jais’s Solitude. They drew 6 lengths clear of the rest of the field, and that runner-up went on to finish a good third in a tougher stakes event in his next turf start. The major concern for Regally Irish is the turnback in distance. Graham Motion does not have particularly strong numbers with this move. Over the past five years, he is 5 for 38 (13 percent, $0.73 ROI) with horses turning back from routes to turf sprints. Skole broke his maiden on turf at Gulfstream in December, but he was somewhat fortunate to win that race. Skychief, a maiden, has run some competitive turf races but this is a serious step up in class. I’ll use all of them, but my to pick is Wonder Stone. This filly will take on the boys for Wesley Ward as she avoids a tougher stakes for her own gender on Sunday. She showed real promise in her debut at Keeneland last year and was not disgraced when she tried stakes company in the Astoria. Her return at Turfway Park in March was better than it seems, since she had to take back and come around horses to win. She is clearly bred to handle the turf, since she is a halfsister to turf winner Hello Holiday and her dam is a half-sister to turf graded stakes winners Bricks and Mortar and Emerald Beech.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,6
Trifecta: 2 with 1,6 with ALL

RACE 6: BANK EXAMINER (#2)
There are a number of first time starters that could potentially be live in this New York-bred maiden event. Doll figures to attract some support for Jason Servis, but this barn has very poor numbers with debuting runners on the NYRA circuit. I prefer Newly Minted and Very Stable Genius. The former is a $110,000 two-year-old purchase for Linda Rice who is by Central Banker out of multiple dirt winner Newbie. This filly has the pedigree to win early but Rice doesn’t always crank them up first time out. Very Stable Genius might be the most dangerous of all the firsters. Charlton Baker can win first time out and this daughter of Posse is a half-sister to 5-time dirt sprint winner Grassady. I’ll use her, but my top pick is a filly with experience. Bank Examiner made her debut at Saratoga last summer on the turf, and she had trouble keeping up early before fading. She had worked well and generated some buzz prior to that debut, getting bet down to 5-1. In retrospect, I wonder if she was just running on the wrong surface. She didn’t appear to be moving over the turf that comfortably at Saratoga, and her pedigree is somewhat ambiguous. Her dam was a turf horse, but there is dirt elsewhere in this family. Jeremiah Englehart does very well with horses coming off layoffs and it’s a good sign that Junior Alvarado takes the mount. I prefer her to Chillinwithfriends, who should also take some money. Rudy Rodriguez entered her for a $30,000 tag last week and scratched in favor of this spot. The fact that he’s given the riding assignment to Harry Hernandez does not inspire confidence.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,5,8

RACE 8: MIDNIGHT DISGUISE (#1)
It’s difficult to eliminate any of the entrants in this six-horse Top Flight Invitational. I suppose the horse to beat is Forever Liesl, who won the Ladies Handicap quite impressively over this course and distance back in January. She appears to be at her best over a wet track, and she may get the kind of going on Saturday with rain in the forecast on Friday night. She should also appreciate the outside post position after not responding when driven along in the inside path going one turn last time. I believe she’s a strong contender, but she’s unlikely to offer much value as the potential favorite. She and the rest of this field will have to run down Frostie Anne, who stretches out and steps up in class as she seeks her 16th career victory. She’s earned some of the fastest speed figures in the field, but she’s also benefited from favorable circumstances and will have to deal with the speed of rival Jump Ruler this time. I prefer some of the longer prices. My top pick is Midnight Disguise. This filly is admittedly a favorite, but I believe she’s finally landing in the right spot now in her third start off the layoff. She actually ran deceptively well in her 4-year-old debut in the Biogio’s Rose two back. Whereas Frostie Anne was riding a gold rail that day, Midnight Disguise rallied to be second despite going four wide on the far turn. She didn’t handle a sloppy track last time, and that may be a concern yet again with rain in the forecast. On the other hand, she is likely to benefit from the stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles. She won going this distance in the Busanda last year and she gives every impression that the farther she goes, the more dangerous she will be. The other horse that I want to use at a bigger price is Another Broad. She never had a chance going a one-turn mile at Gulfstream last time, and this stretch-out to 9 furlongs should really suit her. She’s bred to run all day as a daughter of Include out of a dam who was second in the 10-furlong Delaware Handicap. A wet track would only help her chances.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,5,6
Trifecta: 1 with 2,6 with ALL

Picks & Plays for Friday, April 12

by David Aragona

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 2:   2 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 3:   1 - 3 - 7 - 5
Race 4:   9 - 4 - 10 - 6
Race 5:   2 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 6:   1 - 4 - 9 - 8
Race 7:   5 - 7 - 6 - 1
Race 8:   1 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 9:   11 - 5 - 4 - 2

TOP PLAYS

RACE 3: GREEK ALPHABET (#1)
Prioritize and Lemonist are going to attract the bulk of support in this spot. Between these two, I strongly prefer Lemonist. This horse was cut out to be a nice one from the start, but it took Todd Pletcher a long time to get him into top form. Ever since he returned from the layoff at Saratoga last summer, he seems to have found the consistency that had previously eluded him. He ran better than it seems two back, when he was bottled up at the quarter pole before chasing the winner home, and he launched an impressive rally from far behind to win in stylish fashion last time. If he maintains that form, he’ll be difficult to beat. Prioritize is more difficult to trust. He was certainly improving last summer, when he finished third in the Better Talk Now, but I’m not sure that effort necessarily puts him in the winner’s circle here. He’s going to take money on the basis of his third-place finish in the Grade 2 Hill Prince, but he got a great trip that day, riding a strong rail bias throughout. Both of these horses could be compromised by a lack of pace. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, and the expected front-runner, Drive to Compete, is likely to scratch in favor of a race on Saturday. That could leave Greek Alphabet to control the tempo on the front end. I like this horse getting back on turf. Even though his pedigree doesn’t necessarily indicate that he should love it, he ran the best race of his career on grass last July. Notably, his two victories were earned in gate-to-wire fashion, and he is likely to be afforded that same trip here.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,7
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3 with 2,5,7

RACE 4: MAGNESITE (#9)
Givetheman a Cigar will probably take some money in this spot, but I want nothing to do with this horse as he switches to turf. He’s had plenty of chances at relatively short prices, and he struggled in his lone start on grass. Over the past five years, Chris Englehart is 0 for 29 with maidens switching from dirt to turf, and just three of those finished in the money. I’m most interested in horses trying turf for the first time, and the one I find most appealing is Magnesite. This horse has plenty of turf pedigree. He is a son of Willcox Inn out of a dam whose only win came on turf and who was clearly best racing over that surface. While Magnesite did not earn a flashy speed figure in his debut, he ran deceptively well. After dropping far out of contention on the far turn, he made a strong rally through the lane, finishing with much greater energy than any other horse in that field, before galloping out past them all just after the wire. If he can show more early interest this time, that finishing power should carry him to a much better result. I could also include some others trying turf for the first time. First-time starter Sounds Good has the breeding to handle this surface, but it’s not a great sign that he’s starting out in a maiden-claiming race given his classy pedigree. Danzante also interests me, even though he didn’t do any running in his debut. He’s by the good turf influence Disco Rico and out of a dam who was a four-time turf winner. Finally, Friendship Seven is one that I will definitely include, as he may be the biggest price of all of the aforementioned runners. He has turf on the top and bottom of his pedigree and he has a way of moving that should lend itself well to this surface switch.

Win: 9
Exacta Box: 4,9,10
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,6,8

RACE 5: APEX PREDATOR (#2)
Bassman Dave is clearly the horse to beat off his solid runner-up finish on debut less than three weeks ago. That race came up very fast for the level, but we have yet to receive confirmation of its high speed figures. The winner was a fellow first time starter and the third-place finisher had been eased in his only prior start, so the form is still somewhat questionable. I’m using this horse, but I’m not totally convinced that he will necessarily win this race if he merely repeats his last effort. I’m trying to beat him with Apex Predator. It’s unusual to see these low-profile connections with a $250,000 auction purchase, as they generally campaign cheaper runners. This New York-bred appeared to be worth every bit of that quarter-million dollar price tag when he breezed a furlong in 10-flat at the Fasig-Tipton March sale last year, reaching out beautifully over the dirt surface with quick, efficient strides. It took him a year to get to the races, but he ran fairly well in his debut. He broke slowly and rushed up to chase the pace before tiring. This colt has serious pedigree, by Tale of the Cat out of a Yes It’s True dam who is a half-sister to Japanese Group 1 winner A Shin Forward and $400,000-earner Wake Up in Malibu. Jose Lezcano retains the mount for these low-profile connections and I expect to see improvement in his second start.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5,6

RACE 6: QUESTEQ (#1)
From a pure class perspective, Barrel of Destiny has to be considered the horse to beat in this spot. She’s been facing much tougher company down at Tampa this winter while going out for the Anthony Grantiz barn. She was beaten by a stakes-bound filly last time and won an open allowance race prior to that, so this return to New York-bred company should be a welcome one. Some may regard her lightly due to the fact that she moves back into the stable of the low-percentage John Hertler, but he can certainly send out a winner when he has live runners in his barn. The fact that Manny Franco signs on is a good sign. My only real concern about this filly is her lack of early speed, especially as she turns back in distance. There is just no pace at all in this field, which could make Questeq very dangerous. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will be on the lead under Dylan Davis and I don’t mind this surface switch at all. She had always been better on turf than dirt throughout her career, so her recent improvement on the main track this winter was something of a surprise. If she can transfer that improved form back to the grass, she’s a serious threat here. Her last turf race back in September resulted in a victory and she has gained better early speed since then. She’s my selection, but I also want to include Merlins Muse and Shak’s Hidden Gem underneath at better prices. The former goes out for David Donk, who has good numbers off layoffs in turf sprints, while the latter ran well sprinting on turf as a 2-year-old and can improve with maturity.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,8,9

RACE 8: BIG ENGINE (#1)
Fast Getaway is likely to be favored as he returns from a layoff for Linda Rice. He earned a speed figure that would win many races at this level in his 3-year-old finale last October, but the long break between races is a concern. Over the past five years, Rice is 5 for 38 (13 percent, $1.02 ROI) with horses coming off layoffs of 120 to 240 days in turf sprints. This gelding may not need his best effort to win if none of his rivals improves while switching to turf, but that’s no guarantee. I’ve been waiting for Big Engine to get his opportunity on grass ever since he made his debut last October. He was entered for turf that day, but Jason Servis left him in once the race came off the grass. He ran so well that he was afforded two more dirt opportunities over the winter. He maintained solid form in those starts while failing to step forward off his debut. However, I sense that we could see a significant improvement with this surface switch. This colt’s pedigree is strongly turf-oriented. He’s by the solid turf influence Not for Love and is out of an accomplished turf mare who won the Mount Vernon and Ticonderoga. As a broodmare, she has produced this horse’s full brother Lord of Love, a multiple turf winner. This 4-year-old showed a turfy way of galloping in his dirt starts and has a trainer who excels with this move. Over the past five years, Servis is 3 for 7 (43 percent, $4.28 ROI) with horses trying turf for the first time following a maiden victory. The other two horses that I would use underneath in exotics are Lem Me Tel Ya and Riken. The former was somewhat effective racing on turf in the maiden ranks last year and may appreciate the surface switch, and the latter has enough turf pedigree to handle grass as a half-brother to two turf winners.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,6,7,11
Trifecta: 1 with 6,7 with 3,6,7,8,11

RACE 9: TWO GRACES (#11)
The horse with the best turf form is Grand Banks, but she’s hard to take as a potential favorite. She’s already made 15 starts on turf and has finished second in 5 of her last 7 starts on that surface. Her speed figures are superior to this field, but she usually finds a rival to beat her. I’m definitely using her in exotics, but you’re supposed to bet against her on the win end. Handle With Care makes her first start since last fall and could be the speed of this field, but I’m concerned she may need a race as she returns from the layoff. I’m more interested in some lightly-raced runners drawn to their outside. Middle Out deserves consideration after running on belatedly in her lone turf start last fall. That race came over 7 furlongs, but she has the pedigree and size to suggest that she will appreciate added ground. I’m taking a shot with Two Graces. She didn’t draw a great post position on the outside, but there is a long run to the first turn. She’s run better than it seems in a couple of her starts on dirt this winter, and I think she may appreciate the surface switch. Her female family is more dirt-oriented, but she is a daughter of Lemon Drop Kid and she has the look of a horse who may appreciate turf and a stretch-out to two turns. She could get somewhat ignored in this wide-open finale.

Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 2,4,5