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Featured Race:
Race 1
Approx. Post Time: 12 40 PM (Oct 6)
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by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 2 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 2: 4 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 3: 5 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 4: 12 - 9 - 4 - 8
Race 5: 4 - 6 - 9 - 7
Race 6: 7 - 8 - 3 - 12
Race 7: 2 - 10 - 9 - 3
Race 8: 12 - 1 - 5 - 10
Race 9: 7 - 2 - 4 - 8
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
I’ll be interested to see if both Linda Rice horses actually run in this spot since they have similar running styles. Between the two, I prefer Mytown Myrules (#1), who is getting significant class relief as she drops into a claiming tag. She just hasn’t panned out since Linda picked her up for $75k a year ago, and she’s putting her in a realistic spot off the long layoff. I don’t completely trust her, but her best race obviously makes her tough here. Pam Pam (#6) looks competitive based on her recent speed figures, but I was a little disappointed in her effort at this level last time. She was chasing outside in a rail dominated race, but still lacked finish. She’s claimed by Rudy Rodriguez, but he hasn’t had much success with this move lately. The horse to beat might be Elliptic (#4), even though she ran poorly in her most recent start. The track was very tiring on Sep. 19, so I want to be a little forgiving of her effort that day. She’s dropping down to a realistic level and can sit just off the pace. My top pick is a different dropdown who figures to be a bigger price. Big Hazel (#2)can be a little tough to trust given her general lack of consistency. However, she has run some decent races over the past few months, including when just missing at this track against New York-bred allowance company in July. She didn’t run well at Saratoga, but she was wide against a rail bias two back. Her last race looks disappointing, but it was dominated up front and she was never in the most comfortable spot trying to close. I don’t mind her stretching back out to a mile since she earned her only victory at this distance.
Fair Value:
#2 BIG HAZEL, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 3
I think this optional claimer is a lot more competitive than it might appear at first glance. Likely favorite Fancy Azteca (#1) can obviously win, but she has all the hallmarks of a horse that figures to be overbet. She’s a speed type with Irad Ortiz aboard who is going to take money based on victories against weaker competition. She’s obviously dangerous given that running style, but I think there’s more speed in here than the Pace Projector suggests. Khali Magic (#6) runs her best races when she can control up front. The cutback to 7 furlongs could produce a faster pace but she still seems quick enough to be engaged early. I don’t know if there’s enough pace in here to set up the late run of Captainsdaughter (#2), but I don’t want to dismiss this longshot at a price. She has been facing decent state-bred stakes company in her last couple of starts, and she had a right to need those races off a long layoff. She seems to be racing herself into fitness, and I like her dropping back into an optional claimer where she can get Lasix back. Her last three victories have come when she can use Lasix. My top pick is Rachel’s Rock (#5), who could be a similarly generous price. She’s another who looks like she’s off form at first glance, but I thought her most recent race was a big step in the right direction. She dropped down in class but was still facing a rival of some quality in Starship Defiant, and she chased her gamely through the lane. That was her return from a layoff, and now she’s making her first start off the claim for Michelle Giangiulio, whose barn has been having a lot more success this season than in the past. This mare has back races that would make her very competitive against this group, and the addition of blinkers signals some intent to have her more forward.
Fair Value:
#5 RACHEL'S ROCK, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 5
There are many ways to go in this intriguing turf maiden for 2-year-old fillies. Chad Brown has a top contender in Dr Glick (#9), who ran very well to be third on debut. That race was contested over an inner turf course that was favoring the inside path that week, and she did well to close outside while never seeing the rail. She drew outside once again here so Flavien Prat has to figure out a way to save more ground this time. Yet she has plenty of upside in just her second start, and projects to move forward. I’m just a little more interested in two other second time starters. One of those is Pookie (#6), who finished a decent fourth on debut. She got a pretty good trip saving ground early before staying on late. The most interesting part of the race might have been the gallop-out, where she kept up her pace after the wire, running past the leaders. Tom Morley’s runners typically improve after a start, and she has a right to do better here, perhaps while showing a bit more early speed. My top pick is the other Chad Brown runner in the field. Forward Deployed (#4)debuted against a weaker field at Monmouth last time, and I think she ran better than the speed figure indicates. She settled well to race in mid-pack early, but then had trouble finding a clear path into the stretch and was cut off when she was finally launching a rally between horses at the eighth pole. She recovered well to come back on for third late, and galloped out best of all after the wire. Chad Brown is 20 for 67 (30%, $2.48 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters in turf routes over 5 years. She drew better than her stablemate, and I think we’re going to see a better effort this time.
Fair Value:
#4 FORWARD DEPLOYED, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 6
This redrawn Miss Grillo is a wide open affair in which you can make a case for many runners. I don’t want to settle for a short price on likely favorite Virgin Colada (#3), though I respect her chances. She ran pretty well in her runner-up effort in the P. G. Johnson, and was a visually impressive debut winner. However, she wasn’t closing quite as quickly as third-place finisher Reining Flowers last time, and failed to move forward from the debut. A couple of the horses that I was originally very interested in when the race was drawn last week have gotten tough posts this time. Correto (#11), the younger full-sister to Spooky Channel, ran well on debut at Kentucky Downs, but she faces a tall order to work out a similar trip from this post. The same goes for Marvelous Madison (#12), who I had liked quite a bit last week. Chad had wanted to get her in a two-turn maiden race prior to her debut. Even though the distance might have been short for her, she still ran well to win, overcoming bumps at the start to find position and rally up the inside. Furthermore, she got an inside trip on the Mellon turf course, which was favoring outside paths through the closing days of the meet. She has tactical speed, but may get hung wide from the far outside, especially coming out of the chute. Scythian (#8) drew better this time than last week. She ran well in her dirt debut, but has always been turf meant given her pedigree learning strongly in that direction. She got on turf last time against males and did well to run down fellow second time starter Real Savvy, who had made a breakaway move in upper stretch. Her 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure stacks up very favorably against this group. She has the tactical speed to get forward even from this outside post in a race that doesn’t feature a ton of pace. I’m definitely using her. The horse that I want to upgrade upon reassessing this race is Rare Art (#7). She was beaten by Virgin Colada on debut, but she might have run just as well as the winner that day. She covered more ground racing wide on the turns and still finishing with good interest to only get beaten a length. I was even more impressed with her victory last time, as she got off to a flat-footed start and was again relegated to a 3-wide trip around both turns. Yet she launched a bold rally into the stretch and did well to pull clear late. She’s a little light on speed figures compared to others, but I don’t care much about that. She has a jockey on board who loves to save ground, and I think she has the ability to upset this field if the trip works out.
Fair Value:
#7 RARE ART, at 9-2 or greater
#8 SCYTHIAN, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 8
This Matron looks totally wide open with cases to be made for many options in this highly competitive field. The horse to beat might be Laurice (#8), who earned a strong 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure on debut. However, two runbacks from that race have been mildly disappointing, with both Bourbon Milk Punch and Tam I Am losing at short prices next time out. I still think this filly has quality, but didn’t want to settle for a short price in this field. Among the turf debut winners, Miriam’s Fire (#5) actually interests me a bit more. She did have all the best of it from a trip standpoint first time out, setting a slow pace before drawing off. Yet I won’t be surprised when she’s just as effective rating, and she figures to get somewhat ignored here after she was 20-1 first time out. There does appear to be plenty of pace signed on, which could suit Abientot (#10), one of the most experienced members of the field. She earned a solid speed figure for her maiden win at Saratoga, and then performed admirably when she got back on turf last time at Kentucky Downs. She never looked like a winner of that race but was staying on late. She’s dangerous if the pace comes apart. Another filly who has proven she can rate and finish is Will Not Be Swayed (#1). She beat weaker last time at Kentucky Downs, but I really liked the way she handled the turf, winning even easier than the margin would suggest while flicking her ears all the way down to the wire. This is a big class test for her, but she goes out for a barn that has been sending out nothing but live runners lately. My top pick is first time turfer Yougottahavehope (#12). This New York-bred showed excellent speed to secure the lead through a fast opening quarter before drawing off in her dirt debut. She has plenty of turf pedigree, being by 15% turf sprint sire Twirling Candy out of a No Nay Never dam who was a 2-time turf winner, and also stakes-placed on the surface. She had a high-knee action in the debut, suggestive of a horse who might transfer to grass. Horacio De Paz hasn’t had much success with this move, and she drew a tough post on the far outside. Yet she appears to have real ability and may be quick enough to clear early. The price should be fair.
Fair Value:
#12 YOUGOTTAHAVEHOPE, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 9
Chad Brown obviously holds a strong hand in this allowance finale. The horse to beat is probably Unit Economics (#4), who had a tough trip in his debut and has finished in the exacta in his four starts since then. He has been very short prices in all of those races, so I do think it’s appropriate to wonder if he has that winning instinct after settling for second three times. He got the job done when blinkers were applied two back, winning with a fast TimeformUS Speed Figure, and he validated that form when finishing second to the improving Rebel Red last time. He’s an obvious win candidate, but I thought he was beatable at a short price. Brown’s other runner Walley World (#2) has more upside than his stablemate. He showed talent as a 2-year-old, breaking his maiden impressively before finishing second to today’s rival Spirit Prince in the Central Park. He was a little disappointing in one start at Tampa over the winter, but he put in a better effort last time in the Woodhaven. He’s been off since then and has a right to improve again with routine maturity. There are others who appear to be in good form right now, such as Samburu (#3) and Itsallcomintogetha (#8). However, the former rarely wins and may get overbet with Irad Ortiz getting back aboard while the latter needs to get loose up front if he’s to have his best chance, and there are one or two others in here who can show speed. My top pick is Barrage (#7). This horse might appear to be out of form at first glance, but there are a couple of reasons to expect him to rebound here. He has run his best races when he’s in Ray Handal’s barn, and he got a trainer switch back to this stable prior to his most recent start. I also think he had an excuse for that most recent performance when finishing off the board as the lukewarm favorite. The race was dominated by horses who rode the rail for much of their trips, and Barrage was never inside while racing 3-wide around both turns. He also had poor cover on the second bend, following a horse who was fading out of contention, which put him in poor position for the stretch drive. He’s better than that, and also possesses more early speed. Dylan Davis has ridden him well in the past and reunites with him here.
Fair Value:
#7 BARRAGE, at 9-2 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 7 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 2: 7 - 5 - 6 - 10
Race 3: 2 - 7 - 3 - 5
Race 4: 1 - 5 - 6 - 10
Race 5: 5 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 6: 5 - 9 - 2 - 8
Race 7: 5 - 10 - 1 - 9
Race 8: 10 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 9: 11 - 3 - 5 - 7
Race 10: 5 - 3 - 2 - 8
Race 11: 9 - 2 - 4 - 8
Race 12: 5 - 1 - 9 - 12
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
This state-bred maiden claimer looks fairly inscrutable with very little form on which to base opinions. There are a few first time starters in the mix, but I don’t know if any of them are particularly clever options. I suppose Viking Warrior (#4) will take money for Rick Dutrow being the one that Irad Ortiz is riding, but I actually prefer Papa Paulie P (#5), who is by good sprint sire World of Trouble and is a half-brother to dirt sprint stakes winner Apple Picker. There are a few dropdowns to consider in here. Saratoga Warrior (#6) may take the most money among those, even though he didn’t do much running in his debut. This is a logical drop and Danny Gargan does tend to do better with his second time starters. I just wonder if he’ll be much of a price going out for MyRacehorse. My top pick is Monte Avi (#7), who is another that is just getting the class relief that he needs. Compared to some others in here, I thought this horse actually did a bit of running in his maiden special weight attempts. He was facing significantly tougher fields on both occasions, beaten by Under Who’s Radar, who came back to cross the wire first in a stakes, and then Executive Order, who isn’t totally overmatched in the Champagne later. This drop in class should benefit him more than others, and I don’t think he’s going to be that short a price.
Fair Value:
#7 MONTE AVI, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 3
I have some reservations about all of the short prices in this first-level allowance. Equivoque (#4) is the most intriguing contender as he returns from a lengthy layoff. It’s clearly taken a long time to get this runner back to the races after a promising start to his career. While Pletcher has a reputation for doing well with these types, he hasn’t had as much success in recent years. He’s just 5 for 30 (17%, $0.63 ROI) off layoffs of 360 days or more on dirt over 5 years. I’m going to let him beat me. Quick to Accuse (#7) comes off a much shorter layoff as he attempts to rebound from a poor result for Brad Cox. He had been in great form immediately after the trainer switch this spring, but he lacked speed and could never land a blow when stepped up to this level in June. I am a little skeptical that he will suddenly recapture that best form, but the Brad Cox barn has been nearly unbeatable in New York as of late. Silver Satin (#5) comes off a career-best performance against New York-breds, but he got a great trip setting a slow pace, and held off a proven hanger in the stretch. I think that was the day to have him. The horse to beat might be Tivy (#3), who took a ton of money to get bet down to 7-2 against a field of similar quality last time. He just lost all chance at the start when rearing up and getting off slowly. He actually put in a solid effort thereafter, going wide on the turn and staying on late. I still don’t fully trust him to win given his 2 for 19 record, but he is in strong form right now. My top pick is Daufuskie Island (#2). There doesn’t appear to be much speed in here, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a scenario favoring frontrunners. That is supposed to be Tivy, but he had gate trouble last time and Daufuskie Island does his best work when he can be forward. He ran very well two back when chasing wide against a rail bias, and then last time he had some minor early trouble that prevented him from getting forward. I expect him to get aggressively ridden from the rail under Reylu Gutierrez, and his best races put him in the mix.
Fair Value:
#2 DAUFUSKIE ISLAND, at 7-1 or greater
RACE 4
I didn’t see that many ways to go in this claimer. The short price that I’m against is Legal Deal (#10). This Jamie Ness trainee has primarily showed speed going longer distances and I’m skeptical of him turning back in a race where others just look faster early. Ness also doesn’t win with these types, going just 1 for 22 ($0.40 ROI) in claiming races at NYRA over the last 5 years. The horse to beat is Natural Harbor (#5), who makes his first start off the claim for Brad Cox. The barn has been winning at upwards of 50% in New York as of late, and has been ramping up their claiming game in recent months. I don’t love the dropdown off the claim for $32k, but this colt ran poorly that day and is probably spotted at an appropriate level. He only runs well when he can get to the front, and he should have a better opportunity to do that this time. I think he’s the horse to beat, but I don’t fully trust him at a short price. My top pick is Air Show (#1). It just feels like this 6-year-old probably needed the return from a layoff last time. They put him in a spot where he could race for the waiver, and he was ridden like one who wasn’t really serious about winning. The apprentice appeared to have trouble controlling him early, as he was keen behind runners for much of his trip. Ruben Silvera has been aboard this horse before and should have a better sense of where to place him early. He’s been a runner who has been successful racing inside of runners before, so I’m hopeful he can work out a trip from the rail.
Fair Value:
#1 AIR SHOW, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 6
Nothing Better (#9) has to be considered the horse to beat based on his overall body of work in races like this. He is a multiple stakes winner who almost always puts in a strong effort in races like this. This horse has also had plenty of success over this course and distance, winning a similar race here last November. In the past his best weapon has been his early speed, but his connections have gotten away from sending him to the lead recently, especially since the jockey switch to Jorge Ruiz. A passive ride surely cost him the victory in the Select Stakes two back, so the connections would be wise to get more aggressive this time. He’s the most likely winner, but I’m not confident he’ll be ridden to gain his best advantage. Pace is a concern for Mischievous Angel (#2), who has really come to hand in his recent starts. I was pretty impressed with his victory at Kentucky Downs last time, closing into a slow pace to win going away. However, he might have a tougher time working out the right trip here. My top pick is Senbei (#5). He is just 1 for 5 on turf, but he’s had excuses in his losses on this surface. He got completely stymied in traffic through the lane in August of last year at Saratoga, and then received a wide trip when returning from a layoff this past June. He's run well in both turf starts since then, winning impressively over this course and distance two back before just missing in the Select Stakes last time. Perhaps he, like Nothing Better, might have been better served by a more aggressive ride that day, but he’s holding his form well. Manny Franco gets the mount back, and would be wise to make better use of his early speed.
Fair Value:
#5 SENBEI, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 7
The scratch of Senza Parole (#8) really opens up this Frizette, who now lacks a clear favorite. Upon initially handicapping this race, the other horse that interested me was Paradise City (#6), but she is reportedly scratching as well, so I had to go back and assess this race from scratch. I don’t want the fillies exiting the Spinaway, not because I think poorly of that race but because I have serious concerns about both of them getting added distance. The Queens M G (#2)just presents as more of a sprinter, and the connections are probably just running here because there is no dirt sprint race for her at the Breeders’ Cup. Pondering (#3) might look a little more convincing to stretch out at first glance, but a deeper dive into her female family reveals a lot of sprint pedigree. I also am pretty skeptical of her overall ability. She was visually impressive on debut, but that race has proven to be much worse than the speed figures it was assigned, as horses have come back to regress. Icona Mama (#10) seems like a contender. Now that this field has gotten softer, it isn’t that much of a class hike from the Pocahontas, where she ran well to just miss second going this distance. She may not get the respect she deserves for out of town connections, but she’s a major player. A pair of maidens also have to be taken seriously. Snowyte (#1) may actually inherit the favorite’s role despite coming into this race as a maiden. The form of that Sep. 1 maiden race was flattered when Quickick came back to finish a solid second in the Alcibiades yesterday, and Snowyte gave that filly a test before tiring in the final eighth. She was late to change leads, but still stayed on gamely to the wire. However, the track may have carried her to some extent, since the rail appeared to be an advantage on Sep. 1. For that reason, I would rather take Scottish Lassie (#5) out of the race even though she faded to third. She broke from an inside post, but Irad Ortiz was quick to angle her off the rail to stalk outside early. She continued to chase wide on the turn, and that trip ultimately took its toll as she faded late. She had worked very well into that debut, and ran like a horse who just needed to gain a bit more fitness. She is bred to get at least a mile, and she figures to get somewhat overlooked here even though she arguably has more upside than anyone in this field.
Fair Value:
#5 SCOTTISH LASSIE, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 9
I respect the merits of Transactional (#3), who does look like a very likely winner of this starter allowance. He’s run faster than what is typically required to win at this level in both turf starts since returning from that long layoff. He failed to settle in his return when slightly overmatched, and he did well to overcome a wide trip from an outside post last time. I still wished he had finished off that race a bit more convincingly, and I do think this is a tougher spot. However, he drew well inside and seems likely to work out a good trip under Flavien Prat. He doesn’t project to offer much value, being so obvious and exposed, but it would be foolish to dismiss his chances. The only horse that I want to try taking a shot against him is Addicted to You (#11), who ran very well at this level two back. The pace of that July 12 affair was fast and he was the only one chasing the pace to be around fighting it out at the finish. I can easily forgive his last race at a marathon distance, where he had early trouble and never seemed comfortable. This is the right spot, the only drawback being that he drew a difficult post position with a jockey who rarely rides on this circuit. I still think he’s good enough to make a significant impact on this race if he can manage to somehow save ground, and 3 scratches to his inside help with that.
Fair Value:
#11 ADDICTED TO YOU, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 11
I’m not trying to beat lukewarm morning line favorite Yarrow (#9) in this penultimate race on the Saturday card. He hasn’t always been the most trustworthy win candidate, settling for 9 second and third-place finishes to go long with his 3 career victories. However, he has already won this allowance condition, and held his own when stepped up against tougher open company allowance foes this year. He was competitive with the likes of Mischievous Angel, who is a contender in the Belmont Turf Sprint earlier on this card, and stakes-placed Mansa Musa. His last race might appear to be a regression, but he ran a lot better than it appears. The inside path was not the place to be on the Mellon turf during the final days of that Saratoga meet, and Yarrow was glued to the inside throughout. We saw Cigarette Boat, who was 7th that day after an inside trip, come back to finish a good second at the open N1X level last week with a 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Yarrow has the tactical speed to get forward over a course that has been kind to forwardly placed runners recently, and I think he is a very likely winner. The other horse that projects to get the right trip is Run Curtis Run (#2), and he certainly has form that makes him good enough to win. He is just a little tougher to trust as a win candidate since he’s lost his last 11 races. However, he dropped down to this level last time and did run well in defeat. That was run on the same Sep. 1 card at Saratoga when the Mellon turf was favoring outside runners, and he was towards the inside throughout. He still battled on gamely for fourth in a race that came apart. He projects to sit the right trip from the inside, and I am definitely using him with the top pick. There are other interesting horses in this race, but they all need to either improve or find a way to get better forward position. Russi (#4) might be the biggest threat to the top two picks after finishing ahead of Run Curtis Run last time. He got off the rail in the stretch, but was inside on the turn before angling out. I wonder if he’s a little better going shorter than this, but he does appear to be in career-best form. I would have been much more interested in Vacation Dance (#8) at a price if there was more pace in this race. It just appears that this 4-year-old has lost most of the early speed that he once possessed. It’s been a long time since he’s been competitive, but he’s been placed in some tough spots, and might be getting back on track for the John Kimmel barn. I’ll throw him into my exotic wagers keying around Yarrow.
Fair Value:
#9 YARROW, at 5-2 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 5 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 2: 1 - 8 - 2 - 4
Race 3: 1 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 4: 2 - 6 - 8 - 10
Race 5: 6 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 6: 7 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 7: 3 - 6 - 7 - 2
Race 8: 3 - 12 - 11 - 4
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 3
I have some reservations about both favorites in this state-bred allowance. Brick Ambush (#3) owns the best form at this level, but he’s also had his fair share of chances to break through and has disappointed at short prices a number of times. However, I am willing to be somewhat forgiving of his last effort when finishing fifth at Saratoga, since that was a speed-favoring track that didn’t suit his style. He figures to get a better setup here in a race that features plenty of speed, but I also wonder if 6 furlongs may be a bit short for him. Sandy Sweet Tooth (#7) will also take money in his return from a layoff, especially with Irad Ortiz in the irons. I just wish he had run a little faster in his races earlier this season. He does have a right to improve off the layoff, but Rick Dutrow hasn’t exactly been winning with a ton of horses like this. I won’t be surprised when he runs well, but I also don’t need a short price on him. Very Stormy (#5) is a little more appealing since he at least projects to offer better value. I thought he had every chance last time but that might have been a tougher field at this level. He also was perhaps exposed by the stretch-out to 7 furlongs, and I prefer him turning back here. He should get a decent stalking trip. My top pick is Apollo Code (#1). This horse is a little tough to trust given his general lack of consistency, but he has run races that would make him pretty tough on this group. I also think you can make some legitimate excuses for his poor results. He got shuffled back in the early stages when he last tried this level in June, and then found himself racing on a dead rail in each of his two starts at Monmouth thereafter. Some may hold his Aug. 11 effort at Saratoga against him, but he was again a bit flat-footed at the start and the connections also showed no initiative to go forward that day. This is a better spot, the only downside being that he drew the rail again. He needs to break sharply to have his best chance, but at least figures to be a square price.
Fair Value:
#1 APOLLO CODE, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 4
The horse to beat based on form is Next On Stage (#10), who ran extremely well to just miss at this level last time at Saratoga in her first start off the claim for Ray Handal. However, I think it’s important to discuss the way the inner turf course played on Thursday. There were only two races at the new 27-foot rail setting, but both were completely dominated by horses who rode the rail path for the majority of their trips. That could make it very difficult for this filly to work out a winning trip, especially coming out of the chute, but two scratches to her inside do help a bit. For that reason, I’m downgrading her slightly at the expected short price. Settling Storm (#8) is another with early speed who will seek to get forward from an outside post. Yet her jockey Junior Alvarado isn’t the most aggressive type of rider, so I wonder if she could get hung wide on the turns. She has been in great form recently, running competitively against a tougher field than this last time at Colonial. Aside from the post position, the only other negative is that she can be a little one-paced and lacks much turn of foot. I had originally wanted to pick She Is Invincible (#6), who is at least drawn a few slots of inside of those runners. She ran a lot better than it looks in her debut last year, getting into trouble and racing greenly in a tough field. She wasn’t beating much when she broke her maiden last time, but I liked the way she finished when angled into the clear. She has to improve again to beat this group, but she’s making her third start off the layoff and switching into the barn of Linda Rice. My top pick is Tongue Twister (#2), who is another that might need another slight step forward to win. She didn’t run quite as well as her stablemate when beaten by that rival on Sep. 2, but she does feel like a filly who is getting better all the time. She took a big step forward when breaking her maiden against New York-breds two back, overcoming a poor start to close strongly into a slow pace. She got a better setup last time and an excellent ride from Romero Maragh, but still put in the work to battle on for third against a better field. She’s drawn well inside and should have an opportunity to save ground without dropping as far back as she has in the last couple of starts.
Fair Value:
#2 TONGUE TWISTER, at 5-1 or greater
#6 SHE IS INVINCIBLE, at 6-1 or greater
RACE 5
Likely favorite Under Who’s Radar (#5) might be undefeated if not for some general greenness when crossing the wire first in the Juvenile Sprint. He seemed to get tricked by the slight bend in the stretch at Kentucky Downs as he veered out under a left-handed crop at that point. He did straighten himself up to the wire first, but the stewards intervened and demoted him to second. He’s still run very well in both prior starts, rocketing to the front and leading throughout in his dirt debut against New York-breds before the turf attempt last time. There’s plenty of other speed in here to keep him honest up front, but this colt might have the talent to overcome a taxing trip. He is the horse to beat, but isn’t going to be much of a price, especially after the expected scratch of Chasing Liberty. Todd Pletcher has a pair of entrants in this race, but I have trouble making a case for Mentee (#7), who might attract some support off his 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure earned on debut. He’s trying turf for the first time and there just isn’t enough pedigree to recommend him here at any kind of short price. I much prefer Pletcher’s other runner Gate to Wire (#1), who won sprinting on turf in his debut at Saratoga. He was beating a decent field that day, and showed professionalism to stalk the pace and pull clear in the stretch. He does need to get a little faster to beat this group, but he’s drawn well inside and should sit the right trip. My top pick is I’m Otter Here (#6), who is actually turning back in distance following a pair of one-mile races. He only sprinted on turf once, in his career debut when defeated by subsequent stakes winner Chasing Liberty. He was closing steadily that day, appearing to figure it out as the race unfolded, and that’s proven to be a stronger affair than the speed figures indicate. He took a big step forward to beat maidens second time out at Ellis when stretched out, earning a 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure, the highest turf number in this field. He wasn’t nearly as successful when he tried stakes foes at Kentucky Downs, but got involved in a torrid duel that saw both leaders fade badly late. He’s better than that, and the raw speed that he displayed last time suggests that this turnback will be appropriate for him.
Fair Value:
#6 I'M OTTER HERE, at 3-1 or greater
RACE 7
This Waya could be affected by the way the turf is playing on the inner course. The two races on Thursday were dominated by horses who rode the rail path, and that could complicate trips for a few runners in this 3-turn affair. McKulick (#7) is drawn in one of the outside posts as a horse who wants to come from off the pace. She does her best work when she can get covered up early, but she might not have an opportunity to get over to the rail from this position. While she was compromised by a slow pace last time, I still thought she was pretty disappointing in the Flower Bowl. She just lacked much of a late punch, easily reeled in by runner-up War Like Goddess. She’s better than that, but she isn’t always reliable to show up with her best effort. Stablemate Idea Generation (#6) caused the huge upset in the Flower Bowl, allowed to set a slow pace while isolated up front. She’s now run two races where she was used as a pacemaker for McKulick and she’s outrun her odds on each occasion. She’s clearly a different horse when she can get comfortable up front. She’s really not that fast, but it doesn't appear that there's much speed to go with her again. Idea Generation didn’t have a very good trip off the layoff two back and I am open to the notion that she’s just improved going these marathon distances. She won’t be 31-1 again, but she will still be a much bigger price than her stablemate and I’m not convinced she’s a one-hit wonder. Given the way the track is playing, I want to upgrade La Mehana (#3). I think I might have initially underrated this mare when assessing her form. She did have some legitimate trouble in the opening furlongs of her U.S. debut at Gulfstream where she didn’t finish that far behind McKulick and Surprisingly, both of whom had better journeys. She was then right there with Star Fortress at the end of the Sheepshead Bay despite going 2-wide on the turns as that one rode the rail. Her last effort in the Robert G. Dick was disappointing, but she did stumble significantly at the start. I think she has more early speed than she’s been able to show in these races, and she should have an opportunity to get forward and over to the rail under Kendrick Carmouche. There isn’t much separating her and the main players and she just needs the right trip.
Fair Value:
#3 LA MEHANA, at 3-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 6 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 2: 6 - 5 - 1 - 7
Race 3: 1 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 4: 1 - 3 - 7 - 5
Race 5: 2 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 6: 2 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 7: 11 - 9 - 3 - 2
Race 8: 3 - 10 - 7 - 11
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
C Suite Boy (#3) figures to be a heavy favorite in the opener as he drops from the maiden special weight ranks into this $20k maiden claimer. However, it’s hard to really gauge the impact of a drop out of maiden special weight races at Hawthorne and Belterra. In fairness to those venues, he did face some pretty decent fields in his two prior attempts at that level, including last time when beaten by dominant winner Mr Puk, who did come back to win with a 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure at the same track. However, given that form, this drop all the way down to the bottom does seem a little hasty. William Morey is just 3 for 24 (13%, $0.47 ROI) with maiden dropdowns of this kind on dirt over 5 years. He’s the most likely winner, but I don’t need a horse with this profile at a very short price. There are only two alternatives that I seriously considered. The more interesting one is Liberte de Bayeux (#5), who switches to dirt following a pair of turf attempts. He legitimately lost his action approaching the quarter pole on debut while facing a much tougher field than this. He did show more early initiative last time on the drop, but he still faded badly late. His pedigree can go either way, and Linda Rice does do fairly well returning on short rest. I would just need a generous price given his volatility. My top pick is Wild Nugget (#6). He was meeting New York-bred maiden claimers on debut, and it wasn’t exactly the toughest field you’ll see at that level. However, he did show quite a bit of speed to run clear of that group early, especially since he was getting some serious early pressure from a rival who ultimately faded to 7th. This gelding lost by nearly 9 lengths, but he held on until upper stretch going a demanding 7 furlongs. The slight cutback should work for him, and I like that he’s drawn outside again. I’ll take his apparent upside in a race where they all have questions to answer.
Fair Value:
#6 WILD NUGGET, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 3
This $16k claimer brings together an interesting mix of horses, a few of which are dropping in class. Barese (#7) falls into that category, but he’s hard to trust based on his lackluster recent form. He has disengaged from his races on the far turn in his last couple of starts, but perhaps he will get a little braver here if he's able to make the lead against a softer field. Mason Mania (#5) dropped to this level last time and was extremely disappointing, fading to finish a distant last at Saratoga. However, he was wide against a rail bias that day, and is now claimed by Wayne Potts, who has gotten off to a strong start at this meet. A horse like First Glimpse (#2) seems a little more trustworthy. He’s also dropping in class, but he’s steadily descended the class ladder to a level that appears to make sense. He just wasn’t good enough to win against tougher company in his recent starts, but he did put in a decent effort off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez last time, beating by superior rivals who were also making class drops. He fits well at this level but might need some help up front in a race that appears to lack early speed. I prefer the other Rudy Rodriguez entrant Winter’s Ghost (#1). This gelding has more tactical speed than his stablemate, and should get an aggressive ride from his inside post position. He hasn’t run quite good enough to win here in his two starts since switching into this barn, but he strikes me as one that’s rounding into form. He looked like he needed that return race for fitness two back, and he improved last time. He was chasing the pace set by eventual winner Critical Threat while racing outside of that foe on a track that was favoring rail runners. The race fell apart behind the winner and he did well to hang on for fifth, only beaten for second by two lengths. He ran plenty of races at Tampa last winter that would put him in the mix here, and he’s posted some improved workouts for this third start off the layoff.
Fair Value:
#1 WINTER'S GHOST, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 4
Most of the horses in this auction restricted maiden optional claimer are trying the turf for the first time and none in the main body of the field are in for a tag. Salvation (#7) will attract attention off his dirt debut, but at least he was entered for grass on debut and rained off. Palace Malice is a decent turf sire and the Exchange Rate dam is out of a stakes-placed turf runner, even though she hasn’t yet produced much. Linda Rice first time starters tend to need a start, so he has a right to improve. I was just more interested in some first time turfers who could be bigger price. Perhaps the public will move on from Mythical Man (#3)after he failed to make much of an impact on debut as the 5-2 favorite. He has one of the better turf pedigrees in this field, being by 14% turf route sire Mucho Macho Man out of a dam who traces back to the female family of turf star Point of Entry. Again, there isn’t much immediate production, but that’s a theme in these auction restricted races. Danny Gargan runners do tend to do better after a start. My top pick is Reteko (#1). He’s another who was meant for turf in that Aug. 21 race that got rained off the grass. He showed speed and faded on debut sprinting and did the same going longer last time. However, I do think he’s going to have more staying power switching to turf. Outwork is an underrated turf sire who gets 13% first time turf winners, a strong number for that parameter. His second dam is turf stakes winner Media Access, who earned nearly $200k on grass. Tom Morley has done well with surface switches over the years, and I think this colt’s early speed will play well in this spot.
Fair Value:
#1 RETEKO, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 5
Reflexivity (#5) figures to be a heavy favorite once again as she seeks her second victory in a row. She got needed class relief last time and delivered in a 3-length score against overmatched competition. Now the waters get a little deeper, but she still appears to have some advantages. She’s earned faster speed figures than most of her rivals, and she possesses tactical speed that should ensure she gets another good trip. She has been claimed since then, now making her first start for William Morey, but he does well with these types. I’m not against her, but her form is now totally exposed at a short price. The problem is that two of her biggest rivals don’t exactly love to win races, particularly Linarite (#3), who has settled for more than her fair share of minor awards. She and Quick Power Nap (#1) also have no early speed, which puts them in a difficult position from a pace standpoint. I would rather try to beat this favorite with up and comer Sassy Allie (#2). She might look a cut below these at first glance, but she has been coming along quickly since switching to turf. She was very game in her turf debut, turning back a challenge before getting overhauled by the superior Victoria’s Dancer. It took her a while to find the right race after that and wound up having to run against males going this distance last week. Yet she showed that same grit and tenacity to battle back for the victory even after contesting some fast fractions. Her 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure was a significant improvement, and doesn’t put her that far off the best numbers of the favorite. She’s drawn well inside in a race lacking speed, and I think she has a chance to secure the front. If it comes down to a battle of will to the wire, I know she has the heart to fight for it.
Fair Value:
#2 SASSY ALLIE, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 7
This Gio Ponti is easily the most interesting race on the card with many potential options in an evenly matched field. The horse to beat is arguably Royal Majesty (#10), who drops out of a pair of Grade 1 races. However, those first two legs of the Turf Triple series didn’t come up as tough as they have in years past, and Royal Majesty only beat home a total of 3 rivals between his two fourth-place finishes in those spots. It’s hard for me to find an excuse for his Saratoga Derby where he got a perfect trip and just wasn’t good enough. I don’t mind him turning back a bit and the slight class relief helps, but I’m starting to wonder how good he really is. A few horses exit the tragedy-marred Saranac, and the only horse I would want to consider out of that race is Take Me to Church (#2), who was knocked off his feet in mid-stretch. He appeared to be running a decent race at the time of the incident, and it’s a good sign that he’s back so quickly. It would be unwise to dismiss anything from the Brad Cox barn at the moment, as they have won with 12 of their last 22 starters on the NYRA circuit. Piper’s Factor (#3) is an interesting new face shipping in from Canada. He was decent on synthetic, but it seems like he took a step forward with the switch to turf last time. He got a good trip and did hang on his left lead through the stretch but he still ran a fast race going this distance. He drew well and may not get the respect he deserves. There isn’t much pace in this field, which could put Donegal Momentum (#9) in a position to control up front. They rated him from an outside post in his turf debut last time, but I think the connections would be wise to go forward here. He had always been bred to relish the grass, and he clearly took to the surface, finishing well despite getting some bumps from the inside in deep stretch. If given a pace advantage, he might prove too tough for this field to catch. I’m just a little more interested in Vesting (#11), who finished just behind the winner in that Aug. 24 allowance race at Saratoga. This Irish-bred gelding broke his maiden going 1 3/8 miles, but I prefer him going these shorter distances. He was rated behind a slow pace last time and was finishing best of all once angled into the clear in the last furlong. His versatile running style gives Flavien Prat options, and I hope to see him make more use of his tactical speed this time, especially breaking from the outside. He’s not yet fully exposed and seems likely to take another step forward.
Fair Value:
#11 VESTING, at 4-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 4 - 2 - 8 - 7
Race 2: 3 - 2 - 1 - 5
Race 3: 11 - 8 - 3
Race 4: 9 - 6 - 5 - 8
Race 5: 11 - 2 - 5 - 15
Race 6: 1 - 12 - 5 - 8
Race 7: 2 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 8: CANCELLED
Race 9: 16 - 14 - 8 - 3
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1
It’s hard for me to trust any of the short prices in this claiming opener. Obrigada (#7) might be considered the horse to beat by some handicappers after she won at the $25k level last time. However, she had everything her own way up front that day in a race that lacked any pace. She still just barely held on in the late stages, and I think she has to run better to beat this group. She’s making her first start off the claim for Rob Atras, but he does not have particularly strong statistics with that move. Awesome Annmarie (#8) also makes her first start off the claim, this one going out for David Jacobson. Aside from a couple of races where she broke poorly earlier this year, she’s generally been in strong form since coming to New York. I like the outside post position for her, and she may not be favored. Tyrona (#2) is a tough call for me. I can excuse her last race, since she was chasing a taxing pace against a horse who put in a career-best performance to win and then came back to win again against tougher at Aqueduct. Tyrona should appreciate the turnback to 6 1/2 furlongs, and she will be tough if she runs back to her last sprint effort in June. Lindsay Schultz has posted some impressive statistics out of town, but she’s 0 for 6 at NYRA. My top pick is Tosconova Beauty (#4). I tried this mare a couple of times at Saratoga, and she certainly outran her odds against a tougher field on July 28. While she’s disappointed since then, I think she’s run better than it appears in her last couple of starts. She was involved in a fast pace that completely fell apart two back, and then last time she was out of position right from the start in a speed-laden affair while also chasing outside against a rail bias. Furthermore, she had a shoe repair in the paddock that day, which is never ideal for delivering a top effort. She’s dropping to the lowest level she’s faced in a while, and I think she can outrun her odds again.
Fair Value:
#4 TOSCONOVA BEAUTY, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 5
With this race coming off the turf, we’re left with a group that is hardly trustworthy. MTO entrant Uncorrelated (#15)figures to take money as he returns from a lengthy layoff and drops in for a tag for the first time. Chad Brown had actually entered this horse in an allowance race early in the Saratoga meet, and he was scratched by the vet. There have clearly been some issues getting this horse back to the races, but it is a good sign that the barn still had some hopes for him. I’m just concerned about the distance of this race. Even though he’s bred to go longer, he ran his best race sprinting on debut and he subsequently faded badly second time out in the Gotham. I’m still not totally convinced about his overall ability, and wouldn’t want to take a short price on him. I also have some reservations about Willintoriskitall (#1), who could vie for favoritism. He did earn a strong speed figure in his most recent dirt race back in May. However, he was contesting the pace over a speed-favoring track, and I think that flattered his result. He’s really much more of a turf horse, and I think there are more interesting options in this race. The horse to beat might be Frizzante (#2), who just looks like a logical option making his first start off the claim for Michelle Nevin. He had steadily been improving for his prior connections, and he also looks like a horse that actually prefers dirt. He’s stepping up in class here, but it’s not as if this race is particularly tough for the level. I even think Az U Chase Me (#5), who I had liked more on turf is far from impossible in this spot. He's a deep closer who needs plenty of pace to run at, and I'm not sure he'll get that in this field. Yet he ran well on dirt to break his maiden at Saratoga, and his prior dirt form is better than it looks. I just want to go in a different direction with a horse who might fly under the radar. Union Express (#11) has never raced on dirt, which is very strange given his pedigree. He’s by Accelerate, who is hardly a turf influence and does best with his dirt routers, getting 17% winners in that category. He’s also a half-brother to Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap winner Express Train, and his other siblings all excelled on dirt. He had initially been training on dirt in Southern California for the connections who raced Express Train, and it would appear that he was just sent to Northern California to start his career in hopes of finding softer competition. Given that synthetic form, he was then converted into a turf horse when he came into John Toscano’s barn, but I think he deserves a chance on dirt. He’s clearly improved overall as a racehorse since he started his career, and his tactical speed should play well in this spot.
Fair Value:
#11 UNION EXPRESS, at 7-1 or greater
RACE 7
The horse that I’m mildly against in this first level allowance is Get a Job (#9), who might take money off his 7-length maiden score going this distance at Saratoga. He beat a decent field that day and earned a competitive 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the performance. However, he had everything his own way from a pace standpoint, getting very comfortable up front. Now he’s drawn the outside post, and I’m skeptical that he can be as effective with a more taxing early pace. I much prefer the other horse who should vie for favoritism. Russian Realm (#5) improved over the course of his first 3 dirt starts, running a race that would make him tough here when chasing home the talented Vettriano going this distance back in June. I won’t hold the subsequent turf attempt against him, and he didn’t even run that badly considering his trip. He’s now landing back in the right kind of spot, and figures to be tough to beat if he shows up with his good effort. Liberty Central (#4) also makes sense as he gets some class relief after chasing home the likes of Pandagate and Doc Sullivan, two of the top New York-bred 3-year-olds. Cutting back to a mile figures to suit him, and his versatile running style should allow him to work out a favorable trip. My top pick is Noonzio (#2). There isn’t a ton of pace in this race, and this colt should be quick enough to get forward inside of Get a Job early. He broke from an outside post position out of the Wilson Chute last time and was forced into a stalking trip. That race featured an honest pace and also was dominated by rail runners on a day that might have featured a minor track bias. Therefore, I think he had an excuse for fading in the late stages. He had shown talent on debut, and I think there’s still upside with him as he continues to gain fitness. Michelle Giangiulio’s barn has been on a strong run over the last few months at NYRA, and this horse should be a fair price again coming off that disappointing last result.
Fair Value:
#2 NOONZIO, at 4-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 2 - 1 - 9 - 5
Race 2: 2 - 5 - 9 - 10
Race 3: 4 - 1A - 5 - 9
Race 4: 3 - 1 - 2
Race 5: 4 - 5 - 7 - 2
Race 6: 6 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 7: 7 - 2 - 8 - 6
Race 8: 15 - 7 - 10 - 3
Race 9: 4 - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 10: 10 - 2 - 15 - 16
Race 11: 6 - 8 - 4 - 1
Race 12: 12 - 1 - 8 - 9
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
I suppose Man of Mischief (#9) is the most likely winner of this maiden optional claimer, but I wonder if we’ve already seen the best he has to offer. He ran pretty well on debut when staying on for second behind well-meant firster In the Chase. However, he railed to step forward as the favorite second time out, and the form of that race hasn’t exactly been flattered by runbacks. I was puzzled by the switch to turf last time, and now he’s switching back to dirt in a race that features a few first time starters that seem to have potential to win on debut. The most obvious of those might be Ennis Town (#5), a homebred going out for Michael Trombetta, who can certainly get one ready to fire first time out. His new sire Echo Town has gotten off to a strong start with his debut runners, winning with 5 of 20 firsters with 14 of those hitting the board. There isn’t much pedigree on the dam’s side, but the dam is a half-sister to local allowance type Fromanothamutha, and this colt is bred to be precocious. My top pick is Western Wolf (#2). Mitch Friedman isn’t known for having success on debut, but he is 3 for 26 with first time starters over 5 years with the winners going off at 99-1, 7-1, and 3-1. This colt is a New York-bred but is wisely entered in this restricted race which may have come up a bit weaker than a corresponding state-bred event. I saw video of one workout at Saratoga where he seemed to travel better than a stablemate who ultimately finished off the board on debut. However, I liked the way this horse broke from the gate professionally and showed willing speed. He’s a half-brother to stakes winner Aunt Babe, who did win her career debut as a 2-year-old.
Fair Value:
#2 WESTERN WOLF, at 7-1 or greater
RACE 7
This auction-restricted optional maiden claimer has attracted an interesting mix of runners, most of which have experience. Yet the lone first time starter in the field may be the horse to beat. Nilo’s Rose (#2) goes out for Rob Falcone, who is 5 for 30 (17%, $2.74 ROI) with first time starters in sprints at NYRA over 5 years. This daughter of Promises Fulfilled looked pretty quick working a quarter in 21-flat at the OBS June sale. She has also shown some talent in the mornings leading up to this debut. She held her own in company with recent maiden winner Sassy Allie on Aug. 24, and then bested older claiming type Prove Worthy in company on Sep. 1. Her recent fast gate drill matches the barn’s 3-year-old maiden winner Ariana Rye. I get the sense there’s talent here, and she might not be catching the toughest field for the level. Melle Mel (#6) could take money again after getting hammered down to 4-5 on debut as the only MTO in an off the turf race. She was one of the few Melanie Giddings trainees ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan who failed to win at Saratoga, but she did run a like a horse who probably needed the race. She was off a step slowly, moved very wide on the turn, and was green in the stretch. She can do better with a more professional effort switching to Irad this time. Ravenite (#8) switches back to dirt after a failed turf attempt last time. She finished last in her debut on this surface, but she was facing a tougher field in June at Aqueduct and didn’t get the most comfortable trip that day. She adds blinkers and may be capable of better. My top pick is Frankie Hiccups (#7), who makes her second start for Rudy Rodriguez after chasing home the talented With the Angels on debut. Her form was flattered when that rival returned to win the Joseph A. Gimma by nearly 10 lengths. Frankie Hiccups didn’t take much money on debut and only managed to finish fourth, but I thought she got some useful experience. She was off a step slowly and rushed up inside to chase the pace before getting mildly shuffled back into the turn. She swung out in upper stretch and finished decently on her left lead before flattening out. Now she adds blinkers, and I expect her to be much more forward under Romero Maragh, who has been riding aggressively lately.
Fair Value:
#7 FRANKIE HICCUPS, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 9
This race loses some appeal with the expected scratch of Comedy Town, who would have been a serious player in this Vosburgh. The horse to beat may now be Scotland (#2), who was so impressive winning an optional claiming race going this distance early in the Saratoga meet. He appeared to miss some time after that, but he’s been working consistently since the end of August and looks highly competitive against this field if he can repeat his last race. I prefer him to Mott’s other runner Baby Yoda (#3), who just seems to have tailed off since winning the True North as his preferred Saratoga venue back in June. He runs his best races when he can get forward, and there may just be too much speed drawn on either side of him. Mufasa (#6) might be the biggest wild card in this field coming off an eye-catching victory at Colonial Downs in just his second U.S. start. This horse had handled longer distances in his native Chile, but he appears to be a capable sprinter for Ignacio Correas. He won convincingly last time, but he only got a 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the effort and likely has to do better here. My top pick is Dean Delivers (#4), who is seeking his 5th consecutive victory since switching into the Ned Allard barn. Some might be turned off by his last race where he had to work hard to beat an inferior group going 5 furlongs, regressing to a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure. However, he was under the gun from the start that day and looked beaten on the turn before finding more to turn away those challenges and win. I was actually impressed by his grit that day, and he figures to have an easier time making the front end here. He hasn’t gone 7 furlongs in a while, but he handled this distance for his prior barn, and I like that the connections bring in a jockey who is familiar with him.
Fair Value:
#4 DEAN DELIVERS, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 10
After the surface switch and scratches, MTO entrant Floki’s Flight (#15) figures to go favored as he makes his first start off the claim for Linda Rice. He had been in good form for Dale Romans over the past couple of seasons, and seems to fit well at this level. He dropped in for the $50k tag last time, but that was a pretty tough race for the level won by Nelson Avenue, who came right back to beat better optional claiming rivals with an improved speed figure. Floki’s Flight possesses dangerous tactical speed from the outside and obviously handles this distance. I’m not against him, but he just has all the hallmarks of a runner who will be overbet, especially with Irad Ortiz aboard. The other MTO runner O P Firecracker (#16) doesn’t seem quite good enough and might want more ground than this. Among those in the main body of the race, I think there are two interesting options. One of those is Assume Nothing (#2), who got a strange trip last time at Colonial when he appeared to be dropping out of contention on the far turn before re-rallying to victory. That was a weaker field, but he does have prior form and speed figures that make him highly competitive with this group. My top pick is Magical Ways (#10), who might be a slightly better price than those other logical options. This horse had been in strong form for Rudy Rodriguez right from the start of this year, and transferred that form to turf through the summer. While he wasn’t successful in those grass races, he continued to run competitively against tougher competition while improving his speed figures. At first glance it might seem like he’s taken to the grass so well that he can’t run on dirt anymore, since his last couple of dirt efforts have resulted in disappointing finishes. However, he had excuses each time. He was out of position early on March 30 while trying to close against a very strong speed bias at Aqueduct. Then last time he caught a track late on Whitney day that had become tilted towards speed and rail runners. He was used too aggressively to chase Phileas Fogg, who just ran off on the front end and never stopped. That race was dominated by rail runners, and he understandably faded late. He’s better than that, and I like him turning back to a mile here.
Fair Value:
#10 MAGICAL WAYS, at 4-1 or greater
RACE 11
Likely favorite Zulu Kingdom (#4) won his debut in France very easily, drawing away from overmatched competition. He was privately purchased out of that race, and subsequently made his debut for the Chad Brown barn in the With Anticipation at Saratoga. He got bet like a good thing, and delivered on the track. While he did get a great trip under Flavien Prat, saving ground in the pocket on the turns, he showed some determination to close inside of horses through the lane. His 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him the clear horse to beat, but it’s possible that we haven’t yet seen the best of several rivals and his form may be more exposed. Chad Brown’s other entrant Early Adopter (#8) merits a look at a better price. He won his debut quite professionally late in the Saratoga meet. He worked his way over to the inside early and saved ground on the turns before angling out to make his rally at the quarter pole. There wasn’t anything flashy about his turn of foot, but he gradually wore down the leaders to prove best. Chad Brown has fantastic stats with horses in spots like this. Over 5 years, he is 10 for 34 (29%, $2.52 ROI) with 2-year-old last-out debut winners making their seconds starts, finishing in the money with a remarkable 29 of those 34 starters. This colt seems like a candidate to take a step forward. Concord Green (#5) is another Saratoga debut winner who could attract some support, but I thought he got a very favorable trip on debut. He was professional racing inside of horses early, but he did get to save ground over the inner turf course during a week when the rail path was an advantage. The pace of that race also completely fell apart, which aided his late run. He has upside, but may need a step forward. Noble Confessor (#1) offers some intrigue as he tries turf for the first time. He ran better than it looks in his second start when racing wide against a track favoring inside paths. He has plenty of turf pedigree, being by Quality Road out of a dam who is a half-sister to turf stakes winners Sweet Melania and Sweet Rebecca. His early speed could prove dangerous from the inside. My top pick is Smooth Breeze (#6), who could go off as one of the biggest prices in the field, largely due to the fact that he only beat New York-breds on debut. However, he displayed some likable qualities that day, as he broke sharply but was content to rate behind the leaders early. He wanted to lug in a bit in upper stretch and it took Ricardo Santana a while to work him into the clear;. Yet he visibly quickened his stride once he finally found daylight, running over the top of the leader before galloping out strongly. His 86 TimeformUS Speed Figure is similar to the numbers achieved by other debut winners in this field, and I think he has more upside than any of them. He also showed tactical speed first time out that should allow him to get forward position in a race lacking much pace.
Fair Value:
#6 SMOOTH BREEZE, at 6-1 or greater
by David Aragona
View this card’s Highlight Horse and get TimeformUS PPs at Daily Racing Form.
Race 1: 6 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 2: 3 - 6 - 1 - 11
Race 3: 8 - 7 - 1 - 3
Race 4: 10 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 5: 2 - 4 - 7 - 8
Race 6: 6 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 7: 4 - 1 - 2 - 6
Race 8: 5 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 9: 1 - 3 - 10 - 6
(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 2
A couple of horses coming out of an off the turf race at this level on Aug. 18 at Saratoga figure to attract money in this spot. Raging (#13) was scheduled to make his turf debut that day and is entered back on the surface here, so his new connections clearly want to get him on the grass. He really doesn’t have that much turf pedigree, and he drew a difficult post position for this surface switch. The Pace Projector indicates that he’s the quickest of them all early, but it remains to be seen if his dirt speed will transfer to the grass. I much prefer Forward Move (#6) from that Aug. 18 race, in which he was also entered for grass. He actually had more early speed than it appears on paper, but he got shuffled back into the far turn, briefly looking like he might be out of contention before rallying again along the inside late. He’s had limited opportunities on turf, and his only turf sprint was his debut where he ran well. I like him getting back on this surface for Linda Rice and believe he’s the horse to beat. The horse with the best recent turf form might be Inflation Nation (#1), who draws in from the AE list. He didn't run well last time at the starter allowance level, but he was always out of position and never inside over a turf course that was favoring the inside path. He should be competitive at this level. My top pick is Royal King (#3), who switches back to the turf after losing all chance at the start of his last dirt race. He’s not a horse who wants to rally from last, so getting bumped and steadied back at the start really cost him. I also think he’s just a better turf horse. While he didn’t run his best race two back, he was coming off a layoff that day and got bumped very hard on the backstretch before staying on mildly late. His only prior turf sprint in May 2023 would make him tough for this field to handle. I think he can work out a better trip here switching to Joel Rosario and drawing inside.
Fair Value:
#3 ROYAL KING, at 5-1 or greater
RACE 4
Cattani (#7) is a tough horse to assess as a public handicapper. He obviously ran a race two back that would make him very tough for this field to handle. He got bet down to favoritism returning from the layoff last time at Saratoga, and he completely melted down before the race, acting up in the paddock and on the track. He ran like he had expended too much energy, stalking the pace before fading. Perhaps he just needed that start anyway, since Michelle Nevin did enter him for the waiver last time, likely aiming to this start. However, it’s hard to endorse him with any confidence without seeing how he behaves on Friday afternoon. Makeyourmoment (#4) exits a different race at this level where I thought he was facing a tougher field than this. He never launched much of a rally after getting a pretty good trip, but that was just his career debut. He seems likely to move forward second time out, and it certainly doesn’t hurt to get a rider upgrade to Dylan Davis. I view him as the one to beat. My top pick is Sweet Tone (#10). He also faded after chasing the pace in the same race Cattani exits, but he was a little too keen with blinkers and just didn’t have enough left for the stretch drive. He ran better two back when closing well along the inside, and has races in his past that would make him very competitive with this group. I’m also intrigued by this trainer switch to Gary Sciacca, who is 4 for 25 (16%, $2.80 ROI) off switches like this over 5 years. I’m encouraged that the new barn immediately takes the blinkers off, which should help him settle from this outside post. I don’t think there’s anyone to fear in this group, and he is likely to be the right price.
Fair Value:
#10 SWEET TONE, at 8-1 or greater
RACE 5
Three of the main players in this first level allowance exit the Sep. 1 Saratoga race at this same level. That was arguably a tougher spot than this one, so Final Verdict (#7) deserves some credit for running as well as he did, beaten only a length in third. He did get a good trip, stalking outside in the clear over a Mellon turf course that was favoring outside paths on closing weekend. However, this horse has generally been in strong form since switching to the turf. He was much the best against starter allowance company two back, surviving a contested pace to hold off some decent closers. He looks like a deserving favorite, but I’m not running to take 2-1 on a horse who has been generous prices in most of his recent starts. Mike Maker sends out the two others exiting that Sep. 1 affair. Alexis Zorba (#8) didn’t get the right trip that day, as he was off a step slowly and always out of position from there. He does his best running when he can be forwardly placed and was never going to be effective trying to close from far back. I just wish I liked his prior form a bit better. He really didn’t have much of an excuse to lose going a mile two back, and he has tallied 6 second-place finishes in 13 career starts. The other Maker runner Cigarette Boat (#4) is a little more appealing. Unlike Final Verdict, he was racing on the inside part of that Mellon turf course, which was not the place to be over the last few days of the Saratoga meet. He tired after contesting the pace, but I think his trip had much to do with that. He had been in excellent form prior to that, just barely run down by talented rivals Twenty Six Black and Mansa Musa in his preceding starts. He also possesses a more versatile running style than his stablemate and may be just as quick early. My top pick is the new face from California. Dancing Rinca (#2) is another who doesn’t exactly have a history of piling up the wins, going 1 for 17 so far in his career. However, he does sport strong recent form out in California for Neil Drysdale. He ran well off the layoff at this level down the hill at Santa Anita in June despite racing wide throughout. He then had to swing very wide at the top of the lane going 5 furlongs at Del Mar, a distance that is likely too short for him anyway. Drysdale shipped him to Kentucky Downs last time, and he again had no chance to get anywhere near the rail. That race unfolded strangely as no one was particularly intent on the lead with 5 or 6 runners lined up across the track. Dancing Rinca was legitimately 6-wide on the far turn and still was finishing best of all to get up for second. That field might not have been the strongest, but he kept very strong company in that Del Mar race in July, from which multiple horses have returned to improve their speed figures.
Fair Value:
#2 DANCING RINCA, at 5-2 or greater
RACE 8
The two favorites in this Ashley T. Cole obviously make sense, but I’m not inclined to bet either of them at short prices. Dakota Gold (#3) is the type you wanted to have last time when he was 8-1 with some upside second off the layoff. He got an expectedly honest pace ahead of him and benefited from making the last move in a race that was falling apart. It’s not as if that improvement came from nowhere, as he had run some very nice races in the past. However, he doesn’t figure to get as much pace in this spot, and I’m not convinced he’s quite as good going 1 1/8 miles. City Man (#6) is even less trustworthy for me. His last effort looks decent on paper, but I didn’t like the visual of that performance. He came under heavy pressure around the far turn and was going nowhere until the leaders just came back in the stretch. He never looked like a winner of that race, and I’m still waiting for him to get back to some of the better form that we had seen out of him in prior seasons. I want to instead explore some new options in this division. Hush of a Storm (#4) has to be considered as he makes his second start off the claim for Brad Cox. I didn’t love his synthetic race at Presque Isle last time out, but he had been much the best when last competing on turf at this circuit in July. This is a big step up in class for him, but I take it as a positive sign that the Cox barn is showing the confidence to raise him in class. My top pick is Saratoga Flash (#5). I don’t know if he still possesses the early speed that he once did, and it seems a little curious that the connections are taking blinkers off for this race. Yet I can forgive him for failing to get forward in both starts sprinting at Woodbine. He’s not a horse who really wants to go that short, and I much prefer him stretching out here. Furthermore, Saffie Joseph just hasn’t had much success at Woodbine, whereas he has been posting some terrific statistics at NYRA this year. He was running well enough to beat this field as recently as late March against tougher company than he’s meeting here. He’s never won going this 9-furlong distance, but he may be able to back down the pace if Cancel get him to relax towards the front end.
Fair Value:
#5 SARATOGA FLASH, at 7-2 or greater
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