Aqueduct TimeformUS Race Analysis

Picks & Plays for Sunday, March 15

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 7 - 4 - 1
Race 2:   6 - 2 - 3 - 5
Race 3:   1 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 4:   7 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 5:   6 - 4 - 3 - 1
Race 6:   8 - 9 - 3 - 7
Race 7:   4 - 7 - 1 - 6
Race 8:   4 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 9:   4 - 8 - 2 - 6

PLAYS

RACE 6: OUR LAST BUCK (#8)
It’s difficult to predict how the public will approach this wide-open conditioned claiming event, which features horses converging from a variety of class levels. In some ways, the horse to beat might be Tiz Morning, since he’s earned the fastest speed figures on dirt. He was claimed away from some low-profile connections by Tom Morley, who has been enjoying a strong Aqueduct winter meet. However, this barn doesn’t have the strongest statistics off the claim and it is a little curious that they’re not moving him up in class given his background. Bebe Banker should appreciate the class relief as he drops out of New York-bred allowance company. He was overmatched in some recent spots, but he should have shown more last time when he had nothing left for the final furlong against a weaker group for the level. I want to look for a horse coming from a different direction, and Our Last Buck fits the bill. He’s stretching out on dirt for the first time, but there are some reasons to believe he’ll handle it. He was initially targeted at a one-mile race on turf in his career debut before they shortened him up. That shouldn’t have been surprising since he is bred to route, as a son of Courageous Cat out of a dam-side family that has produced primarily dirt and turf routers. His form looks spotty, but he has subtly improved since the trainer switch to Michelle Nevin. He ran a sneaky race two back when he lost interest coming to the quarter pole before regaining his momentum in the stretch. Then last time he stayed on gamely to lose by less than a length despite having to close up the inside on a day when that probably wasn’t the place to be. Furthermore, his tactical speed should play well in a race that lacks much pace.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,7,9
Trifecta: 8 with 3,9 with 2,3,7,9

RACE 9: GANDY DANCING (#4)
Not Phar Now figures to attract plenty of support given that he fits the pattern of a Linda Rice second-time starter who figures to improve. He didn’t run a particularly fast race first time out, but he had some minor trouble that day, stumbling at the start before rushing up to contest the pace on the backstretch. Some would also argue that the rail was the place to be that day – I’m undecided – and he was off the inside for his entire trip, so perhaps he deserves a little extra credit for the performance. I’m using him prominently, but he is going to have to improve quite a bit to take down fellow second-time starter Ernie Banker. This John Kimmel trainee simply ran a faster race in his debut, earning a solid 90 TimeformUS Speed Figure while losing to the promising duo of More Graytful and Double Shot, the latter of which defeated Not Phar Now by over five lengths in his subsequent start. Ernie Banker was a little green that day and figures to do better with experience. However, John Kimmel is just 4 for 41 (10%, $0.51 ROI) with second-time starting maidens on dirt over the past five years. I’ll use both, but there is a first-time starter in the mix that merits attention. Gandy Dancing ships up from Chad Brown’s Palm Meadows base, and he looks very live. His workouts have been encouraging, especially considering the fact that most of them – including a bullet gate drill on Feb. 18 – were accomplished in company with a horse named Candy Machine. That runner recently finished a strong second in his debut at Gulfstream, earning a 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Gandy Dancing has a modest immediate pedigree, but these connections paid a hefty price for him and there is plenty of class deeper in his female family.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,6,8

Picks & Plays for Saturday, March 14

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   8 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 2:   4 - 1 - 7 - 5
Race 3:   5 - 7 - 8 - 1
Race 4:   3 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 5:   4 - 2 - 5 - 9
Race 6:   3 - 7 - 5 - 1
Race 7:   1 - 5 - 8 - 4
Race 8:   5 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 9:   10 - 11 - 9 - 6

PLAYS

RACE 4: SMALL BEAR (#3)
Crea’s Bklyn Law gets a drop in class after failing in recent attempts at the N1X level. He’s never been a winning type at just 3 for 32 lifetime, but he has nevertheless earned a series of speed figures that make him the horse to beat here. He was mildly steadied at the start last time and was out of position for most of the race before making up some ground in the lane. He does figure to be more forwardly placed this time, and should be right there at the end with his typical effort. I’m hardly against him and prefer him to Shalako. This gelding earned a speed figure that would make him formidable here last time, but did so in a $10,000 claimer. The race came up very fast, but it remains to be seen if he can reproduce such an effort against stronger competition. He hasn’t exactly been the picture of consistency over the past several months, and while it does seem like Rudy Rodriguez has him heading in the right direction now, it’s really just that Feb. 9 performance that suggests he’s good enough to win this race. I want to beat him with the dropping Small Bear. This stakes winner is plummeting down to this open claiming level after competing in a series of optional claimers during the past year. His form has clearly tailed off, but he’s nevertheless still earning TimeformUS Speed Figures that would make him competitive in this race. He had little chance to close in a race that was dominated up front last time, and he was simply overmatched prior to that. It’s very possible that facing this softer group could rouse him to produce a better effort, and that would make him tough to beat.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5
Trifecta: 3 with 1,5 with 1,2,4,5,7

RACE 5: FAIR LASSIE (#4)
Abraxan and Sunshine Gal should vie for favoritism in this wide-open conditioned-claiming event. The former is coming off a victory against a softer field last time, when she just dominated throughout after opening up a clear lead right from the start. The Pace Projector is indicating that she should get another favorable setup, but she will get a bit more early pressure from Teletype to her outside. She can obviously win here, but she was in pretty poor form just prior to that victory last time, so she’s not exactly trustworthy. The same goes for Sunshine Gal, but at least she has multiple prior speed figures that would make her formidable against this group. She never made an impact in her return last time, but she was meeting a significantly tougher field at the N2X allowance level. Now she’s getting some needed class relief and she just seems to fit really well against this field from a speed figure standpoint. As long as she gets a little pace to close into, she’ll be right there at the end. I’m using both of these, but my top pick is Fair Lassie. This filly should appreciate the cutback in distance after fading going a mile last week. While she finished far back that day, she still earned a respectable speed figure. Prior to that, she closed well for second at this level, finishing between next-out winners Dovey Lovey and Dirty Bird. She might have gotten closer to the winner that day had she not had some trouble at the start, forcing her out of position in the early going. She loses Manny Franco this time, but promising apprentice Luis Cardenas may be an ample replacement.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,5,8,9
Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with 3,5,8,9

RACE 8: PIEDI BIANCHI (#5)
The real question in this race is whether Bridlewood Cat can return to form, since most would consider her the horse to beat based upon her efforts two and three back. However, she disappointed as the 1-2 favorite last time, and that leaves some questions about her current form heading into this stakes debut. Furthermore, I have some doubts about the quality of those two victories on which she’s built her reputation. She was the beneficiary of a slow pace and favorable track profile when she broke her debut in October of last year. Then in her first start against winners in December she was aided by her main rival Newly Minted having trouble out of the gate, which essentially handed her the victory. I don’t think it’s a stretch to suggest that Newly Minted may have beaten her that day with a clean trip. So while I do believe that Bridlewood Cat is a top contender in this spot, I don’t think she necessarily deserves to be an exceptionally short price. I see no reason not to support the horse who defeated her last time, Piedi Bianchi. This grey mare had everything working against her that day, having to chase wide while returning from a one-year layoff. Yet none of that bothered her as she resolutely closed through the lane to get up to win. The 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned doesn’t make her any kind of standout in this race, but she has a right to build upon that performance. Her connections have tried a variety of distances and racing surfaces with her over the years, but I really believe she’s best sprinting and she may now just be putting it all together as a 5-year-old. I prefer her to the other legitimate player, Kept True, who has mostly been facing weaker fields of New York-breds. Yet she is fairly trustworthy and will be ready to step into the spotlight if either of the two aforementioned runners fail to show up.

Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 1,2,4
Trifecta: 5 with 2,4 with 1,2,4

RACE 9: DARLING’S CURE (#10)
Honey Money fits the profile of a winning Linda Rice second-time starter. She showed some promise in her debut and seems likely to take a significant step forward with that experience under her belt. My only concern is that unlike many first-time starters for this barn she was really meant to win first time out, getting bet down to even-money favoritism. Part of that was due to the field quality, but she was certainly live on the board. She still figures to do better here, but this is a much tougher assignment and I don’t think it’s just a given that we can apply the magic Rice statistic this time. A horse like Dancing Kiki has run faster in a few starts, though she has less upside after having raced 6 times. Yet there are other second time starters to consider, including some with speed, such as Charlotte Webley and Leyte. If the pace is honest, that could help set things up for the late run of Darling’s Cure. This filly made her debut against open company at Laurel last time and put forth a solid effort to be third with a decent 76 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She was shuffled back behind a moderate pace in the early going and did well to continue to make up ground through the lane in a race where no one else really closed. This trainer isn’t known for success on a major circuit like this, but the filly showed ability first time out and she may get some what ignored here due to the low-profile connections. She’s apparently trained well out of that race and I wouldn’t be surprised to see an improved effort this time.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 5,6,7,9,11

Picks & Plays for Friday, March 13

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 2:   2 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 3:   13 - 2 - 8 - 5
Race 4:   3 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 5:   3 - 7 - 2 - 4
Race 6:   5 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 7:   6 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 8:   8 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 9:   5 - 13 - 12 - 9

PLAYS

RACE 2: SHAMROCK KID (#2)
Shamrock Kid seems like the horse to beat after the scratch of Control Group, and I'm not taking a strong stand against him. He makes his first start off the claim for Orlando Noda, who is 2 for 20 (10%, $0.88 ROI) with that move. However, this barn has done well with new acquisitions more generally. The drop down to this level last time woke him up, as he got back into form while finishing in a photo with Control Group. He came up empty in the late stages, but he did have to go 4 wide all the way around the far turn, losing valuable ground. He figures to be formidable right back at this level if he maintains his current form and gets some pace to close into. He’s my top pick, but the scratches do change the complexion of this race. Much of the speed has come out, which should make runners like Singapore Trader and Three to Thirteen far more dangerous. The former is fairly inconsistent, but he did run his best recent race over a wet track, so today's conditions may boost his chances. The same goes for Three to Thirteen, who defeated a cheaper field of $10,000 claimers last time, but has back form to make him tough here if he can recapture it.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 2 with 1,3 with 1,3,4,5

RACE 3: MOLLY’S NIGHTHAWK (#13)
It’s difficult to find the center of this race, or try to venture a guess as to who may be favored by the public. Masons Friend will take money, but she’s exiting a woefully weak maiden special weight event in which she did no running at all. Gary Gullo is not known for improving second time starters, and it remains to be seen if she has enough ability to win on this circuit. Of the second-time starters, I’d be just as interested in Whispering Rose, who gets an intriguing trainer switch to Horacio DePaz. She showed absolutely nothing in her turf debut, but that came against much tougher and she is a daughter of solid dirt influence Afleet Alex. Even Mizzen the Mark has to be considered strongly after rallying for second first time out, even though she exits a slow race. I'm using them all, but I want to search for better value. Molly’s Nighthawk has had more chances than most, but she arguably ran the best last race of anyone in this field. She stumbled badly at the start of that Jan. 20 race, putting her well behind the field in the early going. Yet she steadily advanced despite racing wide on the turn and finished evenly to split the field while earning a respectable – relatively speaking – speed figure. Her other dirt performances aren’t quite so inspiring, but it is worth pointing out that she’s never routed on dirt. She’s clearly better going longer on the turf, so perhaps the added distance will work in her favor.

Win/Place: 13
Exacta Key Box: 13 with 1,2,5,6,8

RACE 5: FROZEN ACCOUNT (#3)
Whichwaytomalibu chased home gate-to-wire winner Jerry the Nipper last time while never really a threat. He was perhaps carried along by the track, as Feb. 22 was a day that appeared to favor forwardly placed runners. He is bred to be more of a sprint type, but he handled a mile well enough last time. He may have an easier time of it on the front end here, since he’s one of the few major contenders that possesses any real speed. Others do have more upside, but he’s the one to beat and the one to catch. Beg to Differ closed steadily from far back to get up for third last time, but did so with the help of a fast and contested early pace. Nevertheless, that was his first start in 3 months, so he has a right to improve second off the layoff. That 87 TimeformUS Speed Figure puts him right in line with the other major players and he arguably has more room for improvement in just his second dirt start. He just needs to show a bit more tactical speed since there doesn’t appear to be much pace signed on this time. I’m interested in some of the second-time starters, the most intriguing of which may be Frozen Account. This colt broke with the field last time and initially tried to show speed before getting steadied out of position. That caused him to become extremely green, as he lost contact with the field leaving the backstretch. He eventually regained his stride and put in a strong stretch run while never threatening the winner. Runner-up Jerry the Nipper returned to win next time out with a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Frozen Account now goes out for Kelly Breen for the first time, and this barn does well off trainer switches. I would also use Liquor, who steadily made up ground while racing wide in his debut. He gets a rider upgrade for James Ferraro and is bred to relish added ground as a son of Tonalist. Signified also figures to improve out of that same race. He got a good education encountering traffic at a couple of points. Pletcher is also 41 for 125 (33%, $2.20 ROI) with maiden second-time starters going from sprints to routes on dirt over 5 years.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,6,7
Trifecta: 3 with 2,7 with 2,4,5,6,7

RACE 7: HAN SENSE (#6)
Payne and Musical America should vie for favoritism. The former is stepping up in class after defeating a solid optional claiming field in his first start going as far as a mile. He seemed to relish the added ground, finishing with great energy after stalking a moderate pace. He’s been off for about three months since then, but he’s been in training for much of that time and will be formidable if he returns in the same form. Musical America lost as the favorite last time, but he was hardly disgraced in finishing second to Belmont Stakes winner Sir Winston. This horse has run well in all three starts for the Rob Atras barn and obviously specializes as this one-mile distance. Both he and Payne have similar stalking running styles, so they figure to chasing the speedy Han Sense in the early going. This grey 6-year-old comes off a disappointing effort at Laurel, where he lost as the 6-5 favorite. It’s hard to find a valid excuse for that performance, but he did run an excellent race just prior to that over this Aqueduct surface. He chased a fast pace in the Queens County and did well to hang on for third in a race that was falling apart late. While he’s spent the majority of the past year contesting two-turn races beyond a mile, I think he may appreciate this turnback to a one-turn mile configuration. His early speed should play well this time and he’s the only horse in this field who has earned prior speed figures which suggest he’s good enough to defeat both favorites.

Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 3,4,5
Trifecta: 6 with 4,5 with ALL

RACE 8: HONOR WAY (#8)
The Pace Projector isn’t predicting a fast pace, but there is plenty of speed signed on here. Any race that features the run-off filly Forgotten Hero is likely to produce an honest early tempo, and fellow front-runner Honey I’m Good should help to ensure that. Honey I’m Good is probably the horse to beat after just missing at this level last time when finishing between Bridlewood Cat and Piedi Bianchi, two of the major players in the Correction on Saturday. While she’s been effective from a stalking position on turf, she may be put in an uncomfortable position this time. Hay Field seems like a logical alternative given her stalking running style. She wasn’t quite good enough in the Broadway last time when facing the in-form Kept True, but she did hold her form reasonably well off the claim for new trainer Antonio Arriaga. She figures to be in the mix here with a similar effort, and that seems likely since she’s among the most consistent runners in the field. I’m using her prominently, but I’m intrigued by the pair that Charlton Baker has entered. Bluegrass Jamboree finished behind Hay Field last time in a somewhat disappointing effort. However, she was compromised by a slow pace, something she’s had to deal with in a number of her recent starts. She has a right to do better here if they go quickly up front, but so does her uncoupled stablemate Honor Way. This mare’s recent form appears to have tailed off, but you can make some excuses for her. She’s not a miler, so she was never going to make much of an impact last time. Prior to that she was overmatched in the Interborough. Yet her form from late 2019 actually gives her a solid chance here and she figures to appreciate this turnback to 6 furlongs. She could be the one that offers the best value.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,6
Trifecta: 8 with 2,3,6 with 2,3,5,6

Picks & Plays for Sunday, March 8

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   7 - 2 - 3 - 1A
Race 2:   7 - 8 - 1 - 6
Race 3:   5 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 4:   2 - 12 - 5 - 11
Race 5:   9 - 7 - 2 - 1
Race 6:   4 - 5 - 6 - 2
Race 7:   9 - 5 - 3 - 11
Race 8:   3 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 9:   7 - 3 - 8 - 5

PLAYS

RACE 1: SKY QUEEN (#7)
Halo City is overdue to break out of the maiden ranks. She really should have graduated last time, but a series of mishaps prevented her from getting to the wire first. She broke about a length slowly, which put her out of position. Carmouche tried to save some ground thereafter, but he ended up getting stuck in a pocket in behind the leaders and couldn’t find a clear path in the stretch until it was too late. Prior to that, she had put forth her best effort going this one-mile distance. Main rival Tonal Vision didn’t have nearly as much trouble as Halo City last time, but she didn’t get an ideal trip either. Dylan Davis had her in a good spot saving ground on the turn, but the rail never really opened up in the lane. It’s unclear if she had more to offer, but she may have been discouraged having to race in tight quarters. Now this daughter of Tonalist gets an added furlong to work with, and she's bred to handle more ground as a half-sister to nine-furlong stakes winner Geothermal. They’re clearly the two horses to beat, but I’m intrigued by second-time starter Sky Queen. She didn’t show much in her debut, but it seems as if that was expected. She was fairly dead on the board at 9-2 given the weak nature of that field, and Eric Cancel rode her very conservatively. He didn’t apply much pressure as she tired nearing the quarter pole and basically just eased her up late. She probably needed that start, and her pedigree indicates she has room for improvement as a half-sister to multiple Grade 2-winning router Miss Sky Warrior. Kelly Breen is 5 for 23 (22%, $2.23 ROI) with second time starting maidens in dirt routes over five years.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 7 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,5

RACE 4: ANGELS AND US (#2)
It’s hard to trust anyone in this wide-open maiden claimer, so I want to keep an open mind. Short prices like Vitanza and Pendolino can certainly win, but neither one figures to offer any value. Vitanza’s form is exposed at this point. She’s run consistently well since making the switch to dirt, and she may have even taken a step forward with the addition of blinkers last time. Yet she’s still not earning speed figures that make her formidable against a field like this. Pendolino will beat her if she gets back to her best form, but that’s a major question mark. This filly was eased in the slop last time, which is concerning considering that she’s handled such going in the past. Her form just appears to be declining, but she may not need to be at her best to defeat this group. There are others to consider, but I want to get more creative. A few of these come out of a similar event on February 15 and the horse that intrigues me most from that affair is Angels and Us. This filly was making her first start back from a 7-month layoff that day, so she had a right to need the race. She ran up into a contending position on the backstretch, but then was forced to race extremely wide around the far turn. All things considered, she stayed on well to be fifth while finishing ahead of today’s rival Funderella. Now she gets a rider switch to a journeyman jockey and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her show more speed this time. It’s not as if she has to improve that much to take down the aforementioned rivals.

Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,7,10,11,12

RACE 6: BETA (#4)
I can’t possibly bet Implied Volatility at a short price after he hung so badly last time. He had every chance to go by the leaders in the stretch and just never showed any will to win, letting the runner inside of him edge ahead just before the wire. He’s the horse to beat based on his set of superior speed figures, but I want to look elsewhere for a new face. Mr Wonderful fits that bill, though you have to be concerned about the 10-month layoff coming into this race. George Weaver does not do particularly well with horses coming off extended breaks like this. That said, he may appreciate the turnback in distance since his two prior dirt attempts for this barn came going longer, and it’s unclear that route distances actually suit him. I’m using him prominently, but he also may go off at a relatively short price. The runner that intrigues me most is the 3-year-old Beta. It’s not easy for a younger runner to step up against his elders at this time of year, but this horse may be catching the right field. He’s just faced significantly tougher competition in most of his dirt starts. That was certainly true last time when he finished third behind next-out allowance winner Tapizearance. He also put in a notable effort when checking in fourth against a very tough maiden special weight field on Dec. 5. He’s a little inconsistent, but his top speed figures put him squarely in the mix and James Ferraro’s horses have been running well lately. I don’t like the presence of an apprentice who rarely wins, but at least that figures to drive up his price.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,5,6

RACE 7: MONEYMEISTER (#9)
A number of horses are dropping in class here, so one of the primary handicapping challenges is to figure out who will maintain their form into this start. I have my doubts about a few of them. The likely favorite is Mo Diddley, and he would obviously be difficult for this field to beat if he repeats his last couple of speed figures. However, he’s suddenly dropping down in class off a solid performance, and Bruce Brown is just 4 for 31 (13%, $0.70 ROI) with horses dropping in claiming price by 50 percent or more over five years. I have even less faith in Saratoga Giro, who also may take some money. It seems like Jason Servis and Michael Dubb are just acknowledging that they made a bad claim, as this horse’s form had completely fallen apart for his prior trainer. They’re now basically begging someone to take this once classy runner for $10,000. I want to focus on horses who appear to be in better form. The one that intrigues me most is Moneymeister, who may get somewhat overlooked here due to the low-profile connections. This horse put in a strong late rally last time to just miss behind the favorite We Should Talk, and he was flattered when that rival returned to win here with an improved speed figure last week. He deserves extra credit for that effort since Feb. 22 was a day on which the track appeared to be favoring speed horses. Furthermore, it’s not as if that performance came out of nowhere, since he had also run well two back when no match for the freakish performance from Where’s Rudy. The Pace Projector is predicting that he’ll get a fast pace to close into.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,5,11
Trifecta: 9 with 3,5 with 3,4,5,11

RACE 8: PALOMITA (#3)
Sadie Lady is a deserving favorite in this race. She’s moving up in class, but she’s not catching the toughest field at this level and she’s in razor sharp form right now. The Rob Atras barn has fantastic statistics with horses coming off victories and she probably doesn’t need to improve at all on that career-best 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned last time. I’m using her prominently, but she’s going to be a pretty short price and there are some others to consider. Aunt Babe has been in very good form recently for James Ferraro. She was unlucky to lose two back when just falling a nose short of getting up over a horse who got a perfect trip. Then last time she was compromised by a slow early pace. She figures to get a better setup here, but she’s still not as fast as the favorite and will need some things to break in her favor. My top pick is Palomita in her second start off the layoff. This filly ran poorly last time, finishing 13 lengths behind Aunt Babe. However, that race featured a strong pace and Palomita was outrun by the speedy Forgotten Hero in the early stages. She just never appeared to be comfortable and backed up. It remains to be seen if she can get back into the form that we saw out of her early in her 3-year-old season, but Chad Brown does do well in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 13 for 30 (43%, $2.30 ROI) with horses making their second starts of a layoff of 180 days or more in dirt sprints. The Pace Projector is predicting that she’s as quick as Sadie Lady in the early going, so perhaps she can secure a better position contesting the pace this time.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,7
Trifecta: 3 with 4,7 with 2,4,7

Picks & Plays for Saturday, March 7

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 2 - 1 - 7
Race 2:   1 - 7 - 8 - 4
Race 3:   12 - 2 - 8 - 7
Race 4:   8 - 7 - 9 - 4
Race 5:   9 - 7 - 4 - 1
Race 6:   2 - 11 - 8 - 1
Race 7:   1 - 5 - 6 - 7
Race 8:   6 - 4 - 5 - 8
Race 9:   5 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 10:   8 - 6 - 7 - 10

PLAYS

RACE 1: BOLD VICTORY (#6)
The two runners likely to attract the bulk of support in this opener are Cousin Andrew and Continuation, both of whom are coming off second-place finishes to horses who will be competing later on in the Gotham. The former goes out for the powerful Chad Brown stable and ran like a horse who badly needed the experience first time out. He lagged behind in the early going and appeared out of contention on the turn before he found his best stride in the stretch. He closed willingly up the inside, matching strides with the impressive winner Sixto late. Now he has to stretch out, but he’s bred to get at least this far. Nevertheless, I do believe he needs to improve to beat Continuation if that one runs back to his debut performance. This horse put in an eye-catching effort on January 11 as he closed willingly on the turn and gamely chased War Stopper through the lane. He was justifiably bet down to 1-2 odds in his second start and he didn’t seem to be quite as sharp. Dylan Davis had to ride him into the race on the turn and he never appeared to be traveling that well. To his credit, he did battle back when Informative came to him late. I’m using them both prominently, but this is a high quality affair in which others certainly have a chance. I would also throw in Will Sing for Wine, who showed promise at Belmont last year and didn’t get the smoothest trip in his return at Gulfstream last time. However, the horse that intrigues me most is the Woodbine shipper Bold Victory. This impressive chestnut colt made two starts over the synthetic surface in Canada last year and finished second each time. While those races were of a lower quality than this one, I liked what I saw from this runner. He has a beautiful stride and he stayed on well each time, notably finishing best of all in that route attempt last time. He strikes me as a horse who should appreciate this switch to dirt, and his pedigree supports that. His sire Flatter produces dirt runners generally and his dam was also best on this surface, even though she has produced a couple of capable synthetic runners. It should also be noted that Mark Casse does exceptionally well with this move. Over the past 5 years, he is 7 for 22 (32%, $2.40 ROI) with maidens switching from synthetic to dirt. He could get somewhat ignored in here and I believe he’s going to outrun his odds.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,5,7
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2 with 1,2,5,7

RACE 3: THE HONEST TOUN (#12)
I suppose horses like Soul Fight or Violent Delights can win this race, but neither one excites me at a short price. The former has had his chances in these cheaper claiming events and has disappointed in his last two starts. His best effort will clearly beat this field, but it seems like he’s been heading in the wrong direction lately. You could say the same about Violent Delights, who did hang on for second in the slop last time, but had run poorly prior to that. He handles the one-mile distance, but he’s often fading in the late stages and he’s not the kind of horse you can rely on to show up from race to race. The problem here is that there isn’t an obvious alternative to these two. Therefore, I’m going to get a little creative and make a case for The Honest Toun. He, too, appears to be off form, but I think you can make some excuses for him. He’s been on sloppy sealed tracks in four consecutive starts and it’s unclear if he actually likes that kind of going. He did break his maiden over such a surface in November, but he just barely got up as the heavy favorite that day and he had run faster on dry going prior to that. He was then compromised by a speed-favoring track in December and encountered unfavorable setups in his two starts since then. This horse was capable of running well enough to beat this field at one time. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will get a fast pace to close into and I like that Manny Franco stays aboard.

Win/Place: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 2,4,7,8

RACE 4: BRASSY (#8)
Of those with experience, I suppose Pure Wow comes in off the best last-out effort. However, she only earned an 89 TimeformUS Speed Figure with a perfect setup, so it won’t be a shock if one of her more lightly raced rivals steps up to beat her. And there are many of those from which to choose. Our Secret Agent showed some promise in her debut at Churchill Downs last June, making a wide move into the race around the far turn after a troubled start. However, she’s been off for a very long time since then and she will have to run much faster to beat this field. Plea is in a similar boat. She found herself in a pretty tough maiden special weight event at Saratoga last summer. She rushed up on the backstretch and traveled well for half of the race before she tired in the lane. She returns adding Lasix for Mott and could be on the main pace players here. I’m using all of these prominently, but my top pick is the first time starter Brassy. Most don’t associate Tom Albertrani with debut success, but he has been known to fire with a first time starter from time to time. What is so notable about this filly are her workouts. You rarely see Albertrani runners achieving times that are anything close to bullet drills, so the fact that she has recorded the fastest workouts of the day in her last two drills is rather striking. Furthermore, it would appear that she outworked this barn’s older horse Freedom Prince (an allowance winner) in that most recent bullet drill, as he had the second-fastest time of the day. This filly is bred to have serious ability, as a daughter of Medaglia d’Oro out of a half-sister to Sky Mesa. Watch the tote board, because she figures to get bet if she’s live in this spot.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,4,7,9

RACE 7: STAN THE MAN (#1)
Wicked Trick has been a revelation since switching to dirt, reeling off six consecutive victories. He was supposed to get a class test last time, but he laughed it off, embarrassing a strong field while earning a career-best 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure. I won’t be shocked if he steps right up and beats stakes company. The one caveat is that he’s only running here after missing the General George due to a brief bout of colic. He’s reportedly recovered well, and it’s a good sign that Rice has put him right back in the entries. His main rival appears to be Diamond King. If this horse runs his best race, it’s pretty clear that he’s going to be tough for even Wicked Trick to beat. The question is what we’re going to get from him following a four-month layoff. He ended last season with six consecutive losses, but he ran very well in defeat on a number of occasions. He’s probably at his best going this flat mile, and he could play out as the controlling speed. I’m using both of these, but my top pick is Stan the Man. This 6-year-old returned from a six-month layoff in excellent form when he took the Queens County. Give him some extra credit for that effort, since he made the first move into a fast pace and held off the vastly improved closer Adventist. Some will be deterred by his poor performance in the Jazil, but I believe he deserves a pass, since he found himself chasing the juggernaut that is Mr. Buff. Furthermore, nine furlongs has always been stretching him to his limit, and this cutback to a one-turn mile should suit him perfectly. It’s nice to see that he’s bounced back with a series of improved works, and I’m fully expecting him to rebound.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,6,7
Trifecta: 1 with 5,6 with ALL

RACE 8: BON RAISON (#6)
You have to admire Mind Control. This 4-year-old just loves to win races and seems to step up to the plate when it matters most. Yet he’s been most effective going seven furlongs and now he has to turn back to the shortest distance he’s attempted since he won his maiden as a 2-year-old. I don’t doubt that he has the speed to handle it, but I do wonder what kind of trip he’s going to work out. It can’t be as advantageous as the one he got last time when he was tracking a slow pace and held off the closers. I still prefer him to the other short price, Happy Farm. This gelding has improved for Jason Servis, but he had all the best of it setting a slow pace last time. While he did give his talented stablemate Firenze Fire all that he could handle, I think this is a more difficult situation for him. I want to look elsewhere for my top selection and I think we can get some value with Bon Raison. This horse has to be the most active runner on the NYRA circuit, coming off a season in which he made 21 starts. His critics will say that he’s inconsistent, but he has run races in the past that would make him a major player here. Now, he’s making his first start off the claim for the hot Michael Tannuzzo barn, and they’re immediately stepping up into an ambitious spot. They also have given him 36 days off since his last race. You have to go back 22 starts in his past performances to find the last time he's been off for as long as that, and he immediately ran a 125 TimeformUS Speed Figure following that "layoff." His best efforts make him good enough to beat Mind Control, and we saw his best last summer in the Tale of the Cat, which was also contested over this distance. I think he’s truly a closing sprinter and he figures to get an honest pace to close into.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,5,8
Trifecta: 4,6 with 4,6 with ALL

RACE 9: LAKE AVENUE (#5)
The likely favorite Lake Avenue is pretty exciting for a number of reasons. She just dominated that Demoiselle despite have to be hard-used from that outside post position to make the lead. The pace did moderate after that, but she nevertheless kicked home impressively in her two-turn debut. She also showed that she's capable of producing top efforts going shorter when she impressively broke her maiden last fall, and her last two speed figures are among the highest in this field. Her pedigree indicates that the sky is the limit since her dam was a multiple Grade 1 winner in dirt routes. Furthermore, she appears to be training very well for her return down at Payson Park. She hasn’t gotten as much attention as some other Kentucky Oaks prospects, but I won't be surprised if she quickly develops into one of the top contenders for that race. Main rival Maedean showed promise right from the start as well. She was hampered by a rail bias in her debut and immediately improved off that performance, reeling off two impressive wins. She was probably never beating Lake Avenue in the Demoiselle, but she might have made it much closer had she not encountered traffic issues on the far turn. This daughter of Tapit doesn’t seem to have distance limitations, but the cutback to a mile shouldn’t hinder her much. She just needs a little pace to close into and she’ll be rolling late. I’ll mainly focus on these two, but I would throw Water White into the exotics. She was no match for the impressive Harvey’s Lil Goil last time, but that one may be as talented as any 3-year-old filly out there right now. Prior to that she didn’t get the greatest trip in the Demoiselle and she may appreciate getting back around one turn.

Exacta: 5 with 4,6
Trifecta: 5 with 4 with 1,6

RACE 10: MONTAUK TRAFFIC (#8)
Mischevious Alex is obviously the horse to beat off his dominant score in the Grade 3 Swale last time. He had to be hard-used to maintain his rail position early that day, yet still punched through into the lead at the top of the stretch and drew off with authority. That 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure is among the highest in this field and it’s not the first time that he’s posted an impressive number like that. The only major question for him is one of stamina, since he has shown a great deal of speed and his damside pedigree is more sprint-oriented. That said, he appears to have the talent to get the one-turn mile. I’m not as enamored with the other horses coming up from Florida. Untitled’s connections are asking a lot of him as he makes his third start in a five-week span. He was no match for the promising Gouverneur Morris last time, but he may not have gotten the two turns that day. I like him turning back here, but he still needs to show that he can reproduce that talent that he displayed in his debut against top company. There are a few recent maiden winners in this field, the most intriguing of which may be Sixto. He earned a respectable speed figure in his debut and he’s bred to appreciate all of the added ground he gets. I’ll use all of these prominently, but my top pick is the Jimmy Winkfield winner Montauk Traffic. It’s always noteworthy when Linda Rice takes a shot at a graded stakes, and this horse appears to be rounding into top form. I liked the way he closed determinedly through kickback last time, and he finished like a horse who shouldn’t mind an extra furlong. His pedigree supports that notion, since his dam and siblings had plenty of stamina. If the pace is hot, I believe he’ll be the beneficiary.

Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 4,6,7,10
Trifecta: 6,8 with 6,8 with 2,3,4,7,10
Trifecta: 6,8 with 2,3,4,7,10 with 6,8

Picks & Plays for Friday, March 6

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   8 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 2:   1A - 4 - 3 - 7
Race 3:   4 - 5 - 7 - 2
Race 4:   5 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 5:   7 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 6:   6 - 7 - 1 - 8
Race 7:   3 - 1 - 5 - 7
Race 8:   6 - 10 - 3 - 5
Race 9:   7 - 11 - 5 - 13

PLAYS

RACE 3: FREUDIAN FATE (#4)
Kid d’Oro may go favored here after making a fairly successful return to the races last month. He was no match for the impressive winner Quickflash, who will be strongly favored to win an allowance race on Saturday, but he stayed on well for second after working out a very good trip. If he improves second off the layoff, he’ll be a strong win candidate this time. However, I prefer a different horse out of that Feb. 2 affair. Freudian Fate did not have the smoothest journey that day, as he was bumped hard coming out of the gate, losing about a length of position at the start. From there, Manny Franco tried to get him to settle in behind runners, but he fought that restraint, attempting to run up into his customary stalking position despite the fact that they were moving quickly up front. He advanced into the race gradually while racing in traffic and dealing with a ton of kickback. All things considered, I thought he did well to get up for third. If he reverts to the form that we saw out of him when he got better trips two and three back, I think he’s the most likely winner of this race. I could also use Hot Brown, who may play out as the main speed here. However, it’s hard to make an excuse for his dull effort last time when he didn’t show his usual early speed and never got involved. His got his career off to a promising start, but he hasn’t built upon those early efforts. Though, he does appear to be working well for his return from the brief layoff, so I’ll throw him into the mix.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 5,7
Trifecta: 4 with 5,7 with 2,5,7

RACE 4: BARBARA P (#5)
The favorites are particularly difficult to trust in this low-level conditioned claimer. Teletype and Wisconsin Night are the two horses to beat, but they’re both coming off poor efforts. The former brings slightly stronger form to the table, having run reasonably well at the $40,000 level two back before disappointing as the favorite last time. Her recent speed figures make her the horse to beat and this logical drop in class might just do the trick. I’m using her prominently, since I have even less trust in Wisconsin Night. This mare has lost as the favorite in four consecutive starts since returning from a layoff. She put forth decent efforts in her first three starts since the claim by Rice, but her most recent performance was dreadful. This time she has to deal with the early speed of Teletype and especially Dazzling Speed, so she could find herself in a situation where she fades through the stretch once again. I just want to get a bit more creative, so I parsed the form of the various longshot contenders and settled upon one who might get overlooked. Barbara P earned a speed figure that makes her a fringe player in this race when she broke her maiden last December. Since then she’s just been thrown into the wrong spots. A mile was too far for her in those two January outings, and then last time she got a terrible trip. Breaking slowly from the outside post position, she was ridiculous wide for the entire run around the far turn and was hopelessly beaten by the time they reached the top of the stretch. She needs to do much better than that to beat this field, but she also finds herself in a race with two untrustworthy favorites. Furthermore, James Ferraro’s horses have generally been running very well in recent weeks, some at long prices.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,6

RACE 5: DEEP SPACE (#7)
Amos was no match for the superior Alphadora when making her first start for trainer Mike Miceli last time, but she still ran a decent speed figure. Her two dirt efforts prior to this trainer switch had been fairly disappointing, as she seemed more comfortable on turf recently. Yet she has shown dirt ability before, and it could be that she’s just finally catching the right field. You’re forced to take a pretty short price on a horse who may not be at the top of her game, but she’s obviously the one to beat. There are two intriguing alternatives. One of those is first-time starter Spin Your Partner. Her dam was successful on all surfaces, but was clearly best on turf, winning the Grade 3 Pucker Up and finishing fourth in the Grade 1 QEII Challenge Cup, and her only foal to race is Grade 3-placed turfer Conquest Hardcandy. She wouldn’t have to be much to compete here, but her pedigree definitely leans towards grass. I prefer Kentucky shipper Deep Space, even though this $750,000 yearling purchase for Juddmonte has been a massive disappointment. Following her discouraging off-the-turf debut, Juddmonte didn’t even see fit to hold onto this daughter of Curlin as a broodmare, letting her go for just $42,000 at the Keeneland November sale. She made her first start for the new connections on synthetic at Turfway, and stayed on evenly after a slow start, galloping out with more interest than she showed during the race. She has always been bred to go longer, so perhaps this stretch-out is just what she needs. Her trainer hasn’t had much success in New York, but it’s a good sign that Junior Alvarado takes the mount, and she figures to be a square price.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,6

RACE 8: LEGIT (#6)
This intriguing optional claimer features a fascinating, if somewhat random, conglomeration of once-promising runners. That group is led by Identity Politics, the runner-up in the 2018 Grade 1 Malibu. This 5-year-old has struggled with inconsistency ever since that career-best performance, only entering the winner’s circle once last year. Yet his last effort suggests that he may be getting things back on track, as he closed strongly into a moderate pace to get up for second behind the classy Joevia. He’s the horse to beat, but I still don’t fully trust him to get the job done at what figures to be a short price after scratches. Any time you see the speedy Chateau in the entries, the pace needs to be discussed. This Jason Servis trainee is a quasi-quarter horse – perhaps the fastest runner on the grounds over a half-mile. Therefore, it’s no surprise that the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. Yet pace competition is not the issue for a run-off like Chateau. Rather, the distance will be his greatest hurdle, since 6 1/2 furlongs should test his stamina. Given his presence, I would prefer to look for a late runner. In addition to Identity Politics, late runners like Voticity and Hoffenheim are also late movers to consider, but I’m most intrigued by the returning Legit. This 5-year-old hasn’t been seen in nearly 22 months, and his connections have selected a pretty ambitious spot in which to return. However, this son of Curlin did show a great deal of ability back in 2018, impressively winning a pair of route starts. Those efforts and his pedigree both suggest that he will ultimately want to go farther than this. Yet he figures to get a great pace setup here and Todd Pletcher has outstanding statistics in this situation. Over the past 5 years, he is 6 for 9 (67%, $5.26 ROI) off layoffs of one year or more with horses going from routes to sprints on dirt.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,5,8,10
Trifecta: 6,10 with 6,10 with 2,3,5,8

Picks & Plays for Sunday, March 1

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 4 - 2
Race 2:   6 - 3 - 5 - 7
Race 3:   4 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 4:   2 - 1/1A - 6 - 7
Race 5:   2 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 6:   8 - 7 - 2 - 1
Race 7:   4 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 8:   4 - 3 - 5 - 2
Race 9:   2 - 3 - 4 - 6

PLAYS

RACE 4: WEGOTOLDYOUGOTSOLD (#2)
The entry figures to attract plenty of support, led by the stronger half Life in Shambles. This 9-year-old gelding exploded with his best effort in quite some time when he dominated a $20,000 claiming field two back, beating today’s rival Wegotoldyougotsold. He was claimed out of that race by Mertkan Kantarmaci and actually didn’t regress much at all in his first start for the new barn. Life in Shambles was disadvantaged by the slow pace last time, but still nearly got the job done despite getting put in tight quarters on the rail in the stretch. If he repeats that effort against a weaker field here, he’s going to be difficult for these to handle. Furthermore, his stablemate Reed Kan isn’t impossible either. He’s making his second start off the layoff, has solid prior form, and is predicted to be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner by the Pace Projector. Yet I still think this pair could be vulnerable to the aforementioned Wegotoldyougotsold. There was a time when this guy would have been considered quite formidable in a race like this. However, he disappointed as the even-money choice last April and wasn’t seen again for 9 months following that performance. He was soundly beaten by Life in Shambles last time, but Jason Servis now shows a ton of confidence in targeting this much tougher spot off the claim. Notably, Servis is 4 for 14 (29%, $2.15 ROI) first off the claim with horses moving up in claiming price by 50% or more over 5 years. Some may think it odd to see apprentice Romero Maragh named, but Servis won a few races with him in Florida last year, including with Maximum Security. Wegotoldyougotsold handles this distance and his tactical speed should play well here.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,6,7
Trifecta: 2 with 1 with 5,6,7

RACE 5: BEAUTIFUL KAREN (#2)
Potential favorite Beautiful Karen got completely wiped out at the start of her debut, taking the worst of an ugly incident involving a few of today’s competitors. Jose Lezcano immediately wheeled her to the outside and she quickly ran past the entire field to establish the early lead in the opening furlongs. She then held on well until the late stages in a race where many were staggering to the finish. That 64 TimeformUS Speed Figure isn’t too impressive on its own, but she deserves a substantial bonus considering the adverse circumstances. Linda Rice does fantastic work with second time starters, so this filly figures to improve. I’m not trying to beat her, though I do respect her main rival Makingcents. That 78 TimeformUS Speed Figure she achieved first time out is the highest in this field, but it should be noted that there is some doubt about the quality of that Dec. 8 affair. That said, Makingcents arguably ran a better race when she returned last month, since she was hindered by a very slow pace and actually did well to get up for third after overcoming traffic issues. She’s bred to handle this distance, but I am a little worried that this barn has been underperforming throughout the meet. The one longshot who interests me a bit is Rosey’s Invasion, who was the filly who caused all that trouble for Beautiful Karen last time. After bearing out at the start, she ran up to contest the pace, but for some reason her rider elected to take a tight hold of the reins and drag her back off the pace. The plan backfired, as he ended up getting totally shuffled out of the race. Now the blinkers are removed and she gets a rider switch, but we're still awaiting a verdict on her overall talent level.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5
Trifecta: 2 with 4,5 with 1,4,5,6,7

RACE 7: TAYLER’S THE BOSS (#4)
Doll may win two races in a row, but she’ll do it without my money. This filly just caught the right field of maidens last time when she got the job done in the slop, but she had a lot working for her that day. Her main rival Alphadora was coming off a layoff and improved out of that performance. Furthermore, Doll has been favored in all but one of her maiden attempts, and she’s been even-money or less in four consecutive races, so it would be unwise to give her undue credit for finally crossing the wire in front. Her main rival appears to be Collegeville Girl, and I have even less trust in this Parx shipper. This filly has totally lost the early speed that she once possessed and really had no excuse to lose last time in a race that fell apart late and set up for a closer. She just hasn’t been able to get back to her best efforts from 2019 and she’s not going to be much of a price given the overall quality of this field. I won’t be shocked if either of these contenders win, but I just don’t find them to be appealing wagering options. My top pick is Tayler’s the Boss. I get that some will look at her efforts two and three back and assert that she isn’t good enough to win at this level. However, she didn’t get an ideal trip in either of those races when she found herself far back in the early going. Then last time she was racing over a speed-favoring racetrack and actually caught a much tougher field than this despite dropping in for a tag. This is arguably the softest field that she’s faced in quite some time and I think she’s going to be more forwardly placed in the early going due to the lack of speed in this field. Antonio Arriaga’s runners typically outrun their odds and you know Kendrick Carmouche will have her in the right position.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,5,7

RACE 8: ROAMING UNION (#4)
The public is likely to gravitate towards the two lightly raced options in this intriguing optional claimer. Patagonia was ambitiously entered in the Bernardini Stakes on Saturday, but his connections opted to scratch and instead target this easier spot. He ran very well in his first start off the trainer switch to Jonathan Thomas, loving the stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles as he ran down the highly regarded Communicator. However, that race may not have been as strong as it seemed at the time. Communicator returned to finish 10th as the heavy favorite in this next start at Oaklawn, and third-place finisher Moretti also lost at 3-5 odds when he returned at Laurel recently. Patagonia has a right to continue improving, but he’s going to be a short price in here and others have already run faster races in the past. Frank’sgunisloaded is in a similar situation, as he looks to build upon his N1X win going a one-turn mile. Yet he was beating an even weaker field than Patagonia in that race and he still has to prove that he’ll be as effective going this distance. I think both of these runners will need to improve to beat the seasoned Roaming Union. Some may be deterred by his pair of off-the-board finishes in his last two starts, but he was facing significantly tougher company on both occasions. He was unfortunate to run into Belmont Stakes winner Sir Winston last time and prior to that he ran deceptively well chasing a fast pace in the Queens County. Roaming Union has always been best over this 9-furlong distance, and he probably just needs a slight drop in class, which he gets here. If he returns to the form that we saw at Belmont last fall he’s going to be a serious rival for the two aforementioned 4-year-olds.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,5
Trifecta: 4 with 2,5 with ALL

RACE 9: JACK BO (#2)
Elios Milos and Air On Fire figure to vie for favoritism in this finale, but neither one is totally trustworthy. Elios Milos has gotten favorable pace setups before, but he still rarely gets the job done. He tried this level last time and had dead aim on the leaders at midstretch before hanging in the final furlong. He’s going to get another favorable pace setup here, but he’s not the type that I want to bet as the favorite. Air On Fire disappointed in his first start off the layoff last time and he does have potential to improve here. However, his best efforts came for Jason Servis and he’s not going to face a very favorable pace scenario this time. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace with Quest for Fire and Flat Rate also likely to try for the front end. I won’t be shocked if he wins, but it also seems like his best days are behind him. I want to look in a different direction, so I’m taking a shot with Jack Bo on the turnback. This horse did win going a mile over this track a year ago, but he’s proven since then that he’s probably a little better over sprint distances. He’s routinely been losing ground late in his route races, so this turnback could work out for him. Furthermore, he’s been in over his head often recently and is finally facing a field that he should be able to handle. He only could manage to finish fifth at this level last time, but he ran off down the backstretch and led for a long time before just tiring in the final furlong. That pace-adjusted 94 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he achieved for that performance is among the highest in this field.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,6,8