Aqueduct TimeformUS Race Analysis

Picks & Plays for Sunday, April 30

by David Aragona

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PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 2:   4 - 11 - 10 - 3
Race 3:   12 - 13 - 1
Race 4:   4 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 5:   9 - 10 - 11 - 2
Race 6:   1X - 8 - 9
Race 7:   6 - 4 - 1 - 7
Race 8:   3 - 7 - 2 - 4
Race 9:   2 - 6 - 5 - 1

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 3

With this race transferred to the dirt, it goes at 1 1/8 miles around two turns on the main track. That makes me very interested in Ocean Gateway (#12), who should want every bit of that added distance. This leggy daughter of Tonalist made a nice impression in her career debut. She just kept making progress from the back of the pack to run up into second behind a heavily bet winner. She wasn’t quite as effective last time, but that race was dominated on the front end and she never really had a chance to grind her way into the race. I expect her to fare much better on the stretch-out and prefer her to the other MTO Gifted (#13), who figures to take more money but might have some distance limitations.

Fair Value:
#12 OCEAN GATEWAY, at 6-5 or greater

RACE 8

I really don’t have a major problem with Today’s Flavor (#7), who appears to be a deserving favorite as he moves back into New York-bred company for this Affirmed Success. He put in a strong effort in the Grade 1 Carter last time, carving out some swift fractions and putting away his main pace rival before getting swallowed up by the closers in the last furlong. His 127 TimeformUS Speed Figure absolutely towers over this field, but it should be noted that number is so high due to a significant pace upgrade. This time the Pace Projector is predicting that he should be alone in front in a scenario favoring the early leader. He’s the most likely winner, but the price will be quite short. Some may look to Sheriff Bianco (#2) as the alternative, but he comes off a win against a softer field and just doesn’t look quite as sharp as he was earlier in the year. I would rather try to beat this favorite with Amundson (#3). I think it’s pretty interesting that Rob Atras has claimed back this 7-year-old for $62,500 and now steps him right up into a stakes event. Atras is 6 for 13 (46%, $3.05 ROI) first off the claim for owner Michael Dubb over the past 5 years. This horse ran one of the best races of his career the last time he was in the Rob Atras barn in October. He’s recently been in solid form for Linda Rice, showing some good versatility, coming from off the pace to win last time. He’s definitely not quick enough to make the front here, but I think Irad Ortiz will have him perched just off the leaders, ready to pounce.

Fair Value:
#3 AMUNDSON, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 9

This starter allowance figures to hold together pretty well, as a few runners in this field were scratched out of an off the turf race yesterday for this spot. Nolo Contesto (#1) is probably the one to beat as he takes another crack at this level for David Jacobson after closing for fourth last time. He probably wasn’t helped by getting steered down to the rail in the stretch that day, as the inside wasn’t the place to be. Yet he nevertheless ran his typical race that day, just picking up pieces. He’s generally a horse that tends to settle for minor awards. I’m also not sure you want closers out of that Apr. 15 affair, since the race was falling apart at the end. A difficult horse to assess is Always Charming (#5), since he looked like a completely different runner when he resurfaced earlier this month, showing speed that he had never before displayed en route to a decisive victory. He’ll be competitive here if he repeats that effort, but this feels like a much tougher spot. Big Venezuela (#6) may get somewhat ignored here after finishing sixth in a pair of races. Yet he didn’t get off to the best start two back, and last time ran better than the result indicates after setting an honest pace on turf. I expect him to rebound this time. My top pick is Mach One (#2). He’s another exiting that same turf race, and it would appear that grass just isn’t the right surface for him. He also got a bizarre ride, wrangled back early before getting very rank into the clubhouse turn. His prior dirt form for Eddie Persaud had been quite good, and he’s proven going this 7 furlong distance over a wet track. He has the tactical speed to work out a trip and should be a fair price for low profile connections.

Fair Value:
#2 MACH ONE, at 5-1 or greater
#6 BIG VENEZUELA, at 6-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Saturday, April 29

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 2:   1 - 10 - 8 - 9
Race 3:   7 - 5 - 11 - 4
Race 4:   4 - 6 - 7 - 2
Race 5:   6 - 1 - 12 - 11
Race 6:   6 - 12 - 14 - 1
Race 7:   2 - 4 - 9 - 1/1A
Race 8:   8 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 9:   3 - 1 - 8 - 7

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 2

I view Downtown Mischief (#8) as a vulnerable favorite in this small field that will contest the off the turf Memories of Silver. She’s run well in all three starts, but she strikes me as a sprinter, and I’m skeptical that she’ll be able to carry her speed this one-mile distance. There are two viable alternatives. Balpool (#10) is proven going this trip and will be tough to beat if she repeats her recent allowance effort from Apr. 7. Yet I prefer Unified Alliance (#1), who showed improvement on the stretch-out to 7 furlongs last time at Parx. She earned a 110 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which is the highest number in this field. Unified does well with this route progeny, and John Servis is 8 for 33 (24%, $2.30 ROI) with non-maidens stretching out to dirt routes for the first time over the past 5 years.

Fair Value:
#1 UNIFIED ALLIANCE, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 6

The two horses to beat on dirt in this off-the-turf starter allowance are a pair of MTO entrants. Built to last (#12) comes in with strong recent form, having showed a new dimension in his first start off the claim for Chris Englehart last time. He was rated off the pace and came with a strong late rally to get up for second. He received a great setup that day, but he might be the recipient of a favorable pace scenario once again. McCrakens Ghost (#14) also makes sense as he ships in from Parx for Jamie Ness. He showed significant improvement with the addition of Lasix last time, making a menacing move at the quarter pole before getting run down by heavy favorite Daydreaming Boy. They both make sense, but I’m more interested in a runner that was originally entered for turf. Sugar Gray Leonard (#6) has run his best speed figures on the grass, but he handled dirt pretty well early in his career and may have just improved after getting claimed by Leah Gyarmati last year. He’s returning from a layoff here, but catches a favorable pace scenario in his return. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, and he has the best Late Pace Rating in the field. He’s physically on the small side and could find this sloppy track to his liking. He did earn his best prior dirt speed figure over a sloppy surface at Laurel.

Fair Value:
#6 SUGAR GRAY LEONARD, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 8

This race loses a lot of appeal with the heavy favorite Zandon scratching. Now the two interesting price options that I highlighted will be among the shorter prices. I have to upgrade Uncle Moonlight (#1), who might now be the horse to beat after scratches. He has dangerous early speed from teh rail and has run well over wet tracks in the past. Galt (#6) showed hints of talent last year, and did earn a victory over a muddy track in his 3-year-old finale. His return at Gulfstream was somewhat lackluster, but that race featured a slow pace that worked against him. He has a right to do better here. My top pick is Tonal Impact (#8). Some may view him as being a cut below this field since he’s been competing at Aqueduct through the winter. However, he’s maintained strong form since being claimed by the Linda Rice barn. I just think his connections made a slight error in judgment by targeting longer races with him. He has a nice turn of foot in his arsenal, but that finishing speed tends to get muted when he’s asked to go 9 furlongs and beyond. We saw that clearly in his 1 3/8 miles attempt two back, when he hung badly through the stretch after making an early move. I love this turnback to one-mile, but some speed scratched out and the price won't be nearly as appealing after scratches.

Fair Value:
#8 TONAL IMPACT, at 3-2 or greater

Picks & Plays for Friday, April 28

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 3 - 2 - 7
Race 2:   7 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 3:   3 - 6 - 7 - 2
Race 4:   6 - 7 - 5 - 4
Race 5:   7 - 1 - 3 - 9
Race 6:   2 - 5 - 6 - 8
Race 7:   6 - 5 - 7 - 2
Race 8:   4 - 9 - 2 - 7

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 2

Between the short prices, I much prefer the 3-year-old Moonage Daydream (#3), but still think this race is more wide open than simply taking a short price on this filly. She showed ability last year in both turf sprints at Aqueduct, including a stakes win in the Steward Manor. I won’t hold her loss around two turns against her and perhaps she can move forward with that race under her belt. The problem is that she had all the best of it up front when she earned that stakes win last year, and now there’s other speed signed on. I’m even less thrilled with Derrynane (#2), who figures to take money based on races from earlier in her career. Yet she was a disappointment last season, and failed at a short price at this same level in November. I’m more interested in two rivals drawn towards the outside. Road to Remember (#6) makes plenty of sense as she returns from a layoff. She defeated Derrynane in that Nov. 10 race last year, and just appeared to get into great form once Natalia Lynch added blinkers. She has the tactical speed to make her own good trip, and typically goes off at a fair price. My top pick is Patria (#7), who may offer even better value. If you’re able to ignore all of the dirt races and just focus on her two turf performances, she fits pretty well here. She put in a big effort to just miss first time on the grass last summer at Saratoga, carving out fast fractions and leading until the late stages at 41-1. She then got back on grass in November at Aqueduct and delivered front-running victory, again setting an honest pace. I won’t hold her subsequent dirt losses against her, as now she’s back on the right footing and her early speed should make her dangerous.

Fair Value:
#7 PATRIA, at 9-2 or greater
#6 ROAD TO REMEMBER, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 4

Smokin’ Hot Kitty (#4) is getting some class relief after facing a better group of New York-breds off the layoff last time. She was a little wide around the turns and just couldn’t quite compete after that. Now she’s dropping down to a more realistic level for Linda Rice. She was effective enough to be second in a similar spot last November, so she certainly makes sense. I prefer her to the other short price on the morning-line, Snow Loves a Fight (#3). I didn’t think this filly had much of an excuse to lose at a cheaper level last time out at Gulfstream. Irad Ortiz worked out a fantastic trip for her, and she just hung in the late stages against inferior rivals. I’m more interested in some bigger prices drawn outside of these fillies. My top pick is Always Laughing (#6). She comes into this race a little light on speed figures, but I think she has upside as a 3-year-old facing older horses. She only has one prior start on turf last year when she was a younger filly, and she actually did well to battle to a narrow loss at the maiden special weight level. That may not have been the strongest field, but I thought this filly showed affinity for grass after a wide trip. She’s since achieved mixed results on synthetic at Turfway, but I thought she put forth one of her best performances first off the claim for William Morey last time. She catches a vulnerable field and may be getting back on the right surface. I would also use Anileate (#5) and Rosemary Potatoes (#7). The former has only run competitively on the turf once, but she was also overmatched in the two poor efforts. She got in a prep on dirt last time and may be set for better as she switches surfaces. Rosemary Potatoes has had more chances on this surface, but she’s run well on a few occasions and typically goes off at generous prices. She’s good enough to be effective at this level if she can work out a trip.

Fair Value:
#6 ALWAYS LAUGHING, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 5

This $12,500 claimer seems totally wide open, as most of the competitors are not in the best form. The only runner coming off a victory is No More Talk (#5), but I have reservations about him stretching out to a mile. He also beat a very weak field last time, and this race seems tougher. Doin’ittherightway (#3) makes some sense as he drops in class for Linda Rice. Yet this is a negative move and it bothers me that he took money last time and still underperformed. I’m more interested in some runners who can be forward early. My top pick is Musical Heart (#7). This David Jacobson trainee might seem like he’s gone off form, but he’s had valid excuses in his two starts for this barn. He was contesting an honest pace two back and lost significant momentum when steadied approaching the quarter pole. Then last time he had no business turning back to 6 furlongs, as he’s a runner who in the past has preferred marathon distances. I expect him to rebound on the class drop, and he’s also getting a rider upgrade to Eric Cancel. The other runners I would use are Bourbon Bay (#1) and Jumpster (#2). Both have been inconsistent, but the former did take a step in the right direction last time and owns dangerous speed from the rail for an underrated barn. Jumpster really improved off the claim for Randi Persaud last time, facing a much better field. He’s also entered as an MTO on Saturday, so it’s possible he may scratch for that spot instead.

Fair Value:
#7 MUSICAL HEART, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 6

I view Candencia (#5) as the horse to beat in this starter allowance. It just feels like her most recent dirt race was a prep for this. She’s much more of a grass horse, but she actually touted herself last time, showing good early speed off the layoff despite having to alter course on the backstretch. She ultimately got tired late, but should have gained some fitness from that effort. Now she’s turning back and returning to her preferred footing. The one knock against her is that she’s going to be a short price even though she’s a horse who has settled for second 6 times to go along with her single victory. I nevertheless prefer her to some other short prices in this spot. Ray Handal sends out a pair of contenders, but both are coming off November layoffs. Stella Mars (#4) seemed to improve with added ground last year, and No Payne (#6)might need slightly softer company than this. Though at least the latter runner has run some of her best races sprinting and could be a bigger price. My top pick is first time turfer True Empress (#2). I have wanted to see this filly get a chance on turf for a while now, based purely on her action. She has some good suspension to her stride and a fluid way of moving that often lends itself well to turf. She really doesn’t have that much pedigree for this surface, though Classic Empire is a decent grass influence. What intrigues me further is that she often runs like a turf horse would on dirt. She has a good turn of foot, but often flattens out late in her races. Switching to grass could make better use of all those attributes, and she figures to be a generous price.

Fair Value:
#2 TRUE EMPRESS, at 6-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Thursday, April 27

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 4 - 2 - 5
Race 2:   6 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 3:   3 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 4:   2 - 7 - 9 - 3
Race 5:   3 - 2 - 12 - 9
Race 6:   7 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 7:   1 - 8 - 2 - 4
Race 8:   12 - 5 - 9 - 11

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 4

It’s pretty obvious that Be Up (#9) is the horse to beat in this $25k claimer. It’s hard to assess her current form given her recent campaign over the synthetic track at Turfway. She handled it fine when she won a claiming race in mid-March, but then regressed sharply two weeks later at a higher level. She may simply be better on turf, since she finished a good second over this course last October. My reservations with her are that she’s a bit one-paced and could find herself working out a chasing trip from this outside draw. I’m interested in a couple of other runners who could be forwardly placed. Forty Smooth (#7) offers some appeal as she switches back to turf. She faced a better field in her only grass start of 2022, setting the pace here last October before fading. Her last race sprinting on dirt seems like a prep, so I expect better second of the layoff. I just wonder if she’s a little cheap for this level, but the price does figure to be fair. My top pick is Mariah’s Fortune (#2). This filly is trying the surface for the first time, and I suspect she’ll handle it. The dam’s side pedigree is limited, but she is out of a Giant’s Causeway dam, and sire Classic Empire has been winning with a decent 10% of his turf starters. She’s run some of her best races over sealed tracks, and she moves like a horse who should transfer to turf. It feels like there’s some intention trying this surface second off the claim for Peter Walder, and she drew well towards the inside.

Fair Value:
#2 MARIAH'S FORTUNE, at 6-1 or greater
#7 FORTY SMOOTH, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 6

With two coupled entries in this race, it’s hard to know who will actually run. Only one half of the Rob Atras entry can participate with Kendrick Carmouche named on both. Jake Rocks (#1) is clearly the stronger half and would be the horse to beat if he participates here. At first glance this $40k claimer might seem like an odd spot for a horse who just won his N1X allowance condition. Yet he would probably be overmatched at the much tougher N2X level, and Atras tends to place his horses where they can win. He makes plenty of sense, but won’t be much of a price. Both runners for Linda Rice make sense, but Glory Road (#2) and Lastchanceatglory (#2B) are the worst kind of coupled entry, where both will pull in support, driving down the price. I’m interested in some others. Thinkaboutit (#6) is an interesting claim back by Ray Handal, who is in the midst of another fantastic meet. He was a bit of a disappointment for this barn earlier in the year, but I also thought he got too passive a ride last time going a bit shorter. He’s capable with his best effort. My top pick is Nuclear Option (#7). This horse is another claim back, reunited with Jamie Ness after being claimed back for $32k. His last start for the Ness barn resulted in an 8-length victory at Parx, and a repeat of that performance would make him tough here. His recent form leaves something to be desired, but he was overmatched in a few of those spots. This time he appears to be the quickest of them all early and should try to wire this field. Furthermore, Ness is on quite a roll with his claims, going 14 for 30 (47%, $2.75 ROI) first off the claim over the past 3 months.

Fair Value:
#7 NUCLEAR OPTION, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 7

This New York-bred allowance affair appears to go through the 3-year-old Vacation Dance (#8). This colt showed real ability as a juvenile. He was game to win his debut at Saratoga, and subsequently improved in two turf starts at Aqueduct in the fall. He just missed after cutting out the fractions in the G3 Futurity, and then won the Altantic Beach over a good field. He’s already run some of the best speed figures in this field, and he still has upside as he returns for his 3-year-old season. While he seemed to train well in Florida over the winter, John Kimmel is just 3 for 42 (7%, $1.33 ROI) off 90 to 180 day layoffs over the past 5 years. I respect him in this spot, especially given his early speed in a race that lacks another obvious frontrunner. I’m somewhat against the Christophe Clement pair, both of whom appear to be pace compromised. Frank’s Art (#6) in particularly could pull some support and I think he’s a bad bet in this spot. I’m more interested in horses drawn towards the inside. Ghost Giant (#2) might be capable of better as he turns back in distance and switches into the David Donk barn. He was in solid form last year and has run well over this course before. My top pick is Runningwscissors (#1). The 7-year-old has struggled with consistency in recent seasons, but his turf races during that time have generally been good. He put in a huge effort, albeit with a perfect trip, to win at this level last June. He was then overmatched in some tougher spots over the summer. He finally dropped back in against NY-breds in his 2022 finale and did well to get up for fourth after a wide trip from the 11-hole. He hasn’t run as well in two dirt starts this year, but he did show some improved speed last time and may be set for better with this return to turf.

Fair Value:
#1 RUNNINGWSCISSORS, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 8

This starter allowance finale is one of the most interesting races on the Aqueduct Thursday card, as contention runs deep in this 12-horse field. Paros (#11) could go favored for Linda Rice as he attempts to improve on a couple of recent third-place finishes at this level in March. He ran well on Mar. 5, making an outside move into contention before flattening out. Yet I was somewhat disappointed with his last effort, in which he made the lead with a furlong to go and just threw in the towel late. I have some reservations about him stretching out to 7 furlongs and just don’t see the value here. I’m also against Mama’s Gold (#8), who just hasn’t looked like the same horse since getting claimed away from Mike Maker. This horse ran a speed figure that suggested he might have been ready for stakes company in January, but he’s been unable to reproduce that form for Chad Summers. Rol Again Dancer (#9) seems like a possible alternative. Unlike many others in this field, he’s actually moving up in class. Yet he ran a 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure last time, which stacks up favorably against this field. He battled gamely to the wire that day, but is another who may be pushed to his limit at 7 furlongs. Linda Rice’s other runner Bobby the Tank (#5) intrigues me more if the price is generous. He ran a competitive speed figure last December behind Valenzan Day before cutting back to 6 furlongs in his two most recent starts. I didn’t love the ride he got last time, allowed to lag too far behind early. Yet he was running on at the end, and he strikes me as one that won’t mind a little added distance. This also seems like a weaker spot than the allowance race he contested last time. My top pick is Playingwithmatches (#12), who figures to be the best price of those who I view as contenders. He showed grit to break his maiden on second asking last November, and then more than held his own against a solid field in that stallion series stakes going this distance. He ran poorly going a mile in January, but something may have gone awry that day, as he missed some time thereafter. He returned last month with an effort that’s better than the result indicates. He got shuffled back early chasing from the inside but was finishing best of all across the wire, suggesting that he’s equipped to get this 7-furlong trip. Furthermore, Mark Hennig is 9 for 42 (21%, $2.23 ROI) second off a layoff of 50 to 100 days in dirt sprints over 5 years.

Fair Value:
#12 PLAYINGWITHMATCHES, at 6-1 or greater

Picks & Plays for Sunday, April 23

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 2:   14 - 4 - 7 - 16
Race 3:   4 - 1/1A - 3 - 2
Race 4:   4 - 6 - 3 - 5
Race 5:   4 - 7 - 3 - 5
Race 6:   7 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 7:   11 - 10 - 13 - 12
Race 8:   9 - 6 - 4 - 10
Race 9:   5 - 8 - 6 - 2

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 3

This Klaravich Stables entry is obviously going to be tough to beat, but they’re also going to be an extremely short price given that both offer some appeal. Reserve Currency (#1) looks like the stronger half, having broken his maiden two back in impressive fashion, drawing off by over 9 lengths. He was mildly disappointing when he stepped up to face winners at this level last time, but he was staying on well in the late stages of that race going a mile. He runs like one that will appreciate added ground, but he still have to prove that he can negotiate the two turns at a very short price. Systemic Change (#1A) has been steadily rounding into form since returning from a lengthy layoff this winter. He seemed to handle a similar distance when he narrowly broke his maiden last time over a stablemate. The runbacks from that race have been decent, and he’s obviously a win candidate. However, I wouldn’t want to bet either one of these horses individually at odds-on prices. Exit Right (#3) is one of the more obvious alternatives to this pair. He’s been a win machine at Parx, but he didn’t quite bring his best form to the NYRA circuit when he was third at this level last time, finishing behind another one of today’s rivals. He might have a pace advantage here, especially after a scratch of another speed. Yet I’m a little skeptical that he’ll be able to beat this field in his current form. I’m a little more interested in Afjan (#4). He’s getting a class test as he moves up from the starter allowance level. However, I thought he put in a game effort to win last time, turning back multiple challenges in the lane. This horse is a true distance specialist, and should relish the slight stretch-out to 1 3/16 miles. That last effort was flattered when Salto de Tigre came back to win with a 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure in his next start. This gelding seems to be improving and I think he's going to work out the right trip stalking outside of Exit Right.

Fair Value:
#4 AFJAN, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 6

Try It Again (#5) figures to finally get some respect as the potential favorite in this New York-bred allowance affair. She’s run two of the best races of her career in both starts since getting claimed by Marcelo Arenas for just $16k in March. These connections don’t usually pull in that much support, but she’s hard to ignore in her current form. The problem is that we probably saw the best she has to offer last time when she got a great trip, shaking loose on the lead. This time there appears to be some other speeds signed on. Two runners drawn down towards the rail could have intentions on getting to the lead. Liberty Flame (#1) exits a gate-to-wire victory against claiming foes last time, and now moves up in class off the claim. She’s competed effectively at this level before, but could be under pressure from the rail draw. I’m more interested in Silver Fist (#2), who returns from a layoff after an inconsistent 2022 season. Yet I think she had some valid excuses in her final few outings last year, as she caught wet tracks that she doesn’t appreciate on a pair of occasions, and just didn’t take to turf two back. She also didn’t get the smoothest ride last time, ass he was tentatively handled, backing off the pace after trying to squeeze through along the rail on the backstretch. She has the ability to beat this field if she’s ready to fire her best shot off the layoff. Another intriguing entrant is Meraviglioso (#4). She could only manage a third-place finsh the last time she competed at this level, but she’s since held her own in a couple of starts against tougher open company fields. She might have run the best race of her career last time when only losing the Grade 3 Distaff Handicap by 7 1/2 lengths, and now she’s landing in a far softer spot. My top pick is Fancy Feline (#7). It might appear that she’s been off form, but I can make some excuses for her recent efforts. She got away to a poor start in that Jan. 28 affair, a race that was dominated up front. She subsequently ran into the superior Grannys Connection on Feb. 25, but still put in an effort that would make her competitive here. Then last time she was actually chasing in a forward position along the rail on the backstretch, but got significantly shuffled back behind a tiring rival on the turn. She finished up decently once in the clear. Now she gets a switch to Trevor McCarthy, who has had success riding her in the past.

Fair Value:
#7 FANCY FELINE, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 8

I don’t have a major knock against Midtown Lights (#6) as she steps back up into stakes company. She lost a stallion series stakes last December, but might have run the best race that day after encountering some minor trouble exiting the backstretch. Since then she’s run well twice in allowance company, just losing to the undefeated Downtown Mischief two back before handling the stretch-out to a mile last time. I don’t mind her turning back to a sprint distance here, and she’s simply the one to beat. I just wouldn’t expect to get much of a price on her. Les Bon Temps (#4) is the horse who defeated the favorite when they met in that December stakes, though she got the better trip on that occasion. She’s since been purchased and transferred into the Linda Rice barn. Yet she hasn’t run back to her best races as a 3-year-old, losing twice at short prices. I thought her most recent effort in the East View was particularly dull, since she really had no excuse not to hold on for second. I want to consider some new faces in here, and the most intriguing of those might be Athena Beach (#9). This daughter of Bank Heist is a half-sister to Kaz’s Beach, who has had success on this circuit for the same connections. She’s won both starts at Penn National by open lengths, and I like the way she handled herself in those races. She showed good early speed but was going away when put to pressure at the end both times. She strikes me as one that won’t mind a little added ground, and she figures to play out as the main speed from her outside post.

Fair Value:
#9 ATHENA BEACH, at 9-2 or greater

Picks & Plays for Saturday, April 22

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   9 - 2 - 3 - 4
Race 2:   2 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 3:   6 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 4:   8 - 6 - 12 - 1
Race 5:   2 - 3 - 5 - 6
Race 6:   1 - 7 - 10 - 9
Race 7:   6 - 9 - 11 - 3
Race 8:   1 - 4 - 3 - 6
Race 9:   1 - 4 - 8 - 3

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 1

I want to take a stand against Pimenova (#7), who does come into this race with the best turf speed figures. She did break slowly last time and was wide thereafter, but made no impact. I’m not sure that turning back in distance will suit her and she’s going to be a very short price. I also think there are other options to consider in this spot. Spoils of War (#2) ran some slower speed figures when she was competing last year, but she was a 2-year-old at that point. She finished up nicely when dropped in for a tag at the Meadowlands last year, and the winner of that race has returned to achieve improved speed figures in subsequent starts. Dance With Me Babe (#3) is another who has some upside returning from a layoff. She was never seriously involved in her debut last year, but that was a tougher spot than this and it’s not as if she was totally disgraced. Now she returns in a softer spot, adding blinkers and Lasix. My top pick is another lightly raced option. Pauciloquent (#9) has made two starts on dirt this winter and just hasn’t looked totally comfortable over that surface. I thought she stayed on well in her debut after getting a wide trip, thought she physically strode like one that might like the turf. She didn’t run as well last time, but that was a tougher maiden claiming event. There isn’t much turf pedigree on the dam’s side, but sire Frank Conversation was a good turf horse during his racing career.

Fair Value:
#9 PAUCILOQUENT, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 2

The Calumet Farm entry figures to be tough in this maiden event, since both have a strong chance. I prefer the Brad Cox trainee First Money (#1), who put in a nice effort on debut. He broke about a length slowly and had to rush up to take the lead before battling gamely when headed in the stretch. It was an encouraging first start and he figures to be dangerous showing speed again from the rail on the stretch-out. Entrymate Kaon (#1A) ran fine to just miss going this distance last time in a race that earned a solid speed figure. However, I thought some others had more upside, and he won’t be much price as part of this entry. I was interested in another horse that exits the March 25 maiden event. Huntington (#2)attracted some support in his debut, going off at a shorter price than First Money. He was slow into stride early but started to progress while racing wide down the backstretch. However, he seemed to take some awkward strides approaching the quarter pole, and it looked like Carmouche considered pulling him up before letting him stride out through the stretch. He’s bred to be a good one as a half-brother to Grade 1-placed dirt router Law Professor. Added distance should help, and blinkers may give him some added focus. I get the sense he might have more to offer than he showed on debut and the price figures to be fair.

Fair Value:
#2 HUNTINGTON, at 7-1 or greater

RACE 3

Chad Brown has entered a pair of runners in this Woodhaven. Belouni (#4) could attract some support off a decent speed figure for his U.S. debut last time at Gulfstream, but I didn’t think he did much running in that race. He got a pretty good trip and just lacked any finish through the lane. That was a tougher field than this so he’s getting class relief, but I’m somewhat skeptical of his overall ability. Inflation Nation (#5) could also take money as he returns from a layoff for Christophe Clement. Yet this barn’s runners often need a start in their returns, and I’m not totally convinced that this horse wants to stretch out. I much prefer Chad Brown’s other entrant Neural Network (#6). He’s shown some ability on dirt, winning his career debut in commanding fashion before taking down the Gander via disqualification last time. However, I think he’s one that might prove even better on grass. Cloud Computing has had some initial success as a turf sire, and there’s grass on the bottom side of this pedigree. Furthermore, Chad Brown is 8 for 33 (24%, $2.92 ROI) with non-maiden first time turfers in routes over the past 5 years.

Fair Value:
#6 NEURAL NETWORK, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 6

There’s plenty of guesswork to be done with horses trying turf for the first time in this $40k maiden claimer for New York-breds. Christophe Clement sends out a pair of runners, of which Myles (#9) could attract more support. This 4-year-old gelding didn’t do much running in his career debut, but that was on the dirt and he has much more of a turf pedigree. He’s by good grass influence Creative Cause and is out of a 3-time turf winning dam who produced nice turf runner Quiet Out East. I don’t expect him to be any kind of big price, but he’s a contender. I also think the horse drawn directly to his outside is a little interesting. October Bliss (#10) is by Destin, who hasn’t had any success as a turf sire just yet. However, there’s plenty of pedigree on the dam’s side. Second dam May Night was a multiple Grade 2 placed turf performer, and the dam is a half-sister to G2 Bowling Green winner Red Rifle. Another horse trying grass for the first time who seems like a candidate to improve over it is Volcker Rules (#7). David Donk has had success in races like this at Aqueduct over the years, and this colt has some pedigree deep in his female family that suggests turf inclination. His dam is by Data Link and is produced from the same family as good turf horses like Doswell and Secretary At War. My top pick is a horse who actually has some turf experience, though he didn’t make much of an impression in that lone grass start. No Regard (#1)was a little chilly on the board when he debuted last year and never really got involved after racing sluggishly in the early stages. Yet he gave off the vibes of one who might want more ground that day. He subsequently showed some affinity for going longer at this level on dirt in November before heading to the sidelines. Now he returns in a proper spot, routing on turf, while also going out as a new gelding. I find it encouraging that John Terranova gives the mount to Samy Camacho, with whom he has had success at Tampa.

Fair Value:
#1 NO REGARD, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 7

More Than Work (#9) is obviously the one to beat as he drops in for a tag for the first time in his career. He showed some promise on turf early in his career despite failing to win on that surface. He did break his maiden this past winter racing on synthetic at Turfway, and it’s not as if he was disgraced when he stepped up against winners for the first time. Yet he did finish off the board as the 7-5 favorite, and now he’s immediately dropping in for a tag in a spot where the connections are sure to lose him. Brad Cox is 28 for 118 (24%, $1.20 ROI) with non-maidens making their first starts for a tag over the past 5 years, suggesting that these types are often overbet. His main rival appears to be Splendid Summer (#3), but he also has some questions to answer as he returns from a lengthy layoff. He displayed steady improvement in his turf races last season, and put forth his best effort when last seen at Saratoga in the summer. Yet he missed the rest of the year, and now has to get back to that form off the layoff. I think there are a couple of interesting runners getting on turf for the first time. Legendary Lore (#11) has run his best races on synthetic, and the dam was best as a turf horse. He’s a half-brother to Hidden Facts, who was a nice turf horse. I think he can move up on this surface, but I am a little concerned about his poor recent form. My top pick is another first time turfer. Mauritius (#6) doesn’t have as much convincing turf pedigree as some others, but he is by good turf influence Twirling Candy. His recent form has gone in the wrong direction, but he showed some ability early in his career. When I watch him run, he moves like one that might be able to wake up on the turf, and he seems like the fastest of the potential speeds, which could give him an advantage. Furthemore, Tom Morley is 5 for 39 (13%, $4.78 ROI) with first time turfers, so he’s won with prices like this before.

Fair Value:
#6 MAURITIUS, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 8

Likely favorite Lifetime of Chance (#3) had developed a reputation as an underachiever over the winter, often settling for minor awards. Yet without warning, he put it all together last time, showing improved early speed before powering away from a decent field of maidens. His 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure is far better than anything his competitors have achieved, but now he has to prove that was no fluke. The connections have also made the unusual decision to transfer him away from the trainer who got him to produce that effort. Mark Casse does poorly off trainer switches, 14 for 130 (11%, $0.74 ROI) over the past 5 years. Between the favorites, I prefer General Banker (#4). This horse was an overachiever through the Derby trail in New York, picking up third in a few points races. Reality set in last time in the Wood Memorial, and now the connections are aiming a little lower, returning to a stallion series event. He was a smashing winner for this condition last December, winning off by over 8 lengths in the slop, and a repeat of that performance makes him dangerous here. Yet I’m interested in the horse they all have to catch. East Coast Girl (#1) took a few starts to figure things out at the start of his career. He got a very tentative ride on debut, handled like a horse who needed the race. He then blew the start next time, but still showed marked improvement. He finally put it all together two back with that 11-length triumph, and he showed that was no fluke last time with a game runner-up performance in a tougher starter allowance. He may have to improve again to beat this field, but he looks like the main speed from his rail draw. He picks up Jose Ortiz and should be a fair price.

Fair Value:
#1 EAST COAST GIRL, at 7-2 or greater

Picks & Plays for Friday, April 21

by David Aragona

Visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 2:   4 - 1A/1 - 2 - 5
Race 3:   6 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 4:   4 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 5:   2 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 6:   2 - 3 - 8 - 1
Race 7:   8 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 8:   8 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 9:   1 - 7 - 2 - 9

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

RACE 1

I don’t want to default to the likely heavy favorite D Hopper (#6) in this opener. He crossed the wire first on debut before getting disqualified, and many will assume that he’s set up to get the official victory this time. Yet he was competing in an unusually weak race for the level, and only earned a mediocre speed figure that day. He might be capable of better in his second start, but I don’t need to support him to find out at a very short price. Chad Brown’s other runner Phelpsy (#5)didn’t show much in his two starts last year, but he might be capable of better off the layoff. I would just need a price on him, and runners from this barn can tend to be underlays. The first time starter Majestic Michael (#1) is a little interesting as he debuts for Tony Dutrow. This barn did win with some live firsters last year, and the horse has a nice pedigree, by Justify out of a dam who is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Awesome Maria. My top pick is Venge (#3). I want to give this well-bred son of Gun Runner one more chance after disappointing when he was last seen in January. Something may have gone awry that day, and he also just seemed uncomfortable rating between horses in the early stages. He showed some ability closing for third after a poor start on debut last year. He trained well for that race, and appears to again be working well for his return. I get the sense there’s more ability here and the price should be better this time.

Fair Value:
#3 VENGE, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 5

I don’t have a major problem with Spiked (#5), who seems like a deserving favorite in this spot. She crossed the wire first at this level going this distance in January, but was justifiably disqualified for interference. She tried a tougher race at this level last time going a one-turn mile and put in a decent effort to get up for fourth after briefly having to pause in upper stretch. She gets the distance and is the one to beat, and I do prefer her to the other expected short price Know It All Audrey (#3). I have some concerns about this filly getting the distance. She’s primarily competed against New York-breds, and has gotten very good trips when she’s been successful. I just don’t see any value with her. However, I am interested in a couple of other horses who finished behind Spiked that Feb. 24 race. Into Happiness (#6) was making up ground after lagging well behind early. A turf experiment didn’t work out last time, but I like her getting back on dirt, and the rider switch to Trevor McCarthy could be a positive one for her. Yet I’m most interested in Liam’s Kiss (#2) on the stretch-out. She got a very wide trip last time, legitimately traveling in the 4 to 5-path around the far turn. Her rider wasn’t aggressive early and then seemed to give up on her in the stretch. I think she’s better than that, and believe she can get a better trip under Jose Ortiz, who figures to send her forward from the inside draw. Based on pedigree and physical impression, I think the 9 furlongs will work for her.

Fair Value:
#2 LIAM'S KISS, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 6

Refuah (#8) is the horse to beat in this state-bred maiden, but he’s had more than his fair share of chances to break through at this level. He was beaten by a good horse last time in Olympic Dreams, and was flattered when that one came back to win his next start against tougher. Yet, despite breaking slowly, Refuah still ranged up like he might get the job done that day and just hung in the late stages. I want to explore other options, but fellow short price Rule Breaker (#4)won’t be among them. This $1 million auction purchase was sent off favored in the debut at Fair Grounds last month, but put in a disappointing effort. He came up empty in the lane, crossing the wire far behind the runaway winner. Brad Cox is 34 for 131 (26%, $1.39 ROI) with maiden second time starters in maiden special weight dirt routes over 5 years, so these types tend to get overbet. Among the second time starters, I’m more interested in I’m Just (#3). He was a bit sluggish through the early stages of his debut, dropping back to last on the backstretch. Yet he made steady progress while racing wide on the turn and stayed on decently finish less than two lengths out of second. That should have served as a good experience, and he seems like one that should have no problem stretching out to a mile. My top pick is another second time starter who figures to be a bigger price. Unaffected (#2) didn’t take much money in the debut, but showed decent early speed, chasing the pace down the backstretch before fading a bit in the late stages. Overall, it wasn’t a terrible effort and he has a right to be fitter in his second start. This son of Practical Joke has some good size to him and looks like one that might have more natural ability than that first result suggests. I don’t mind the rider switch to Katie Davis, who has been having some success at this meet, and this barn has been dangerous with some prices.

Fair Value:
#2 UNAFFECTED, at 9-1 or greater
#3 I'M JUST, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 7

After the scratch of Dontmesswithtess (#9) , Union Dolly (#1) will be a strong favorite here. She kept solid company when she ran in a starter allowance event back in January, getting a very good trip but just unable to see out the distance. I’ve always felt she was a bit cheaper than this, but this didn’t come up as the toughest race for the level. I’m interested in a couple of bigger prices, since I expect there to be some value elsewhere for those looking beyond the favorite. My top pick is Lady of Thoroton (#8). This filly had an inconsistent season last year, but she did put forth some good efforts at this level, including a solid third-place finish at Saratoga last summer. She also missed by just a length and a half the last time she routed on turf in October, despite getting rank in the early stages. And that has been a major issue for her, as she does tend to pull too much in the first half of her races. I’m hoping Katie Davis can get her more settled because she does have the ability to compete with this group when she runs a complete race. The other horse that I want to consider at a huge price is R Girl Faith (#5). She might look cheaper than these, but she moved up on turf when she switched to this surface last season. Since then, she’s gotten even better on dirt and is coming into this return to grass in the best form of her career. This might be too ambitious, but she’s one to throw into the mix at a gigantic price.

Fair Value:
#8 LADY OF THOROTON, at 4-1 or greater
#5 R GIRL FAITH, at 10-1 or greater

RACE 8

I didn’t want to default to likely favorite Stone Creator (#6) in this state-bred optional claimer. I think we saw the best she has to offer when she won off the layoff two back in February, where she got loose on the lead through soft fractions and rode a rail bias. She subsequently lost at this level last time despite getting another good trip, and I think she’s vulnerable again here. Among the logical alternatives are Sweet Mystery (#2) and Bavarian Creme (#1). The former is returning from a brief layoff and turning back in distance. She did show some ability early in her career and fits well at this level. Bavarian Creme has more recency, coming off a career-best performance at the N1X level last time. Yet she also has some things to prove against tougher while breaking from the rail. I want to go in a different direction with Thinking It Over (#8). She returned from a layoff at this level in March and put in a decent effort to get up for third after chasing a quick pace set by the talented Grannys Connection. This filly showed some talent last year, but seemed to hit a plateau over the summer. I thought her return as a 4-year-old represented a subtle step forward, and she may be capable of better second off the layoff. Ray Handal is having a typically strong meet and Katie Davis has ridden well.

Fair Value:
#8 THINKING IT OVER, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 9

I’ll be interested to see if the also eligible entrant Little Skippy (#11) draws into this affair. If he gets one defection and makes the race, he is one that figures to pull some support. He faced better company in both prior turf starts at Gulfstream and put in decent efforts on each occasion. However, he would be saddled with a disadvantageous post position and I think there are some other more interesting options in this field. In the main body of the field, Old Point (#6) could take some money on the switch to grass. However, he’s not the kind of first time turfer I want. He really doesn’t have that much pedigree for grass despite being out of a British-bred mare. It’s more of a dirt family overall, and he might just lack the speed to compete at this 6-furlong distance. Among the experienced options, I’d be more interested in Nieuwendyk (#7). He made just one start on turf in his career debut last summer, and didn’t run that badly. He contested a pace that came apart and stayed on pretty well for fifth. He has plenty of grass pedigree, and may be ready to put forth a better effort on this surface now that he’s had more experience and time to mature. My top pick is Father of Lies (#1), who is another horse trying grass for the first time. I find it encouraging that this horse showed good speed on debut before fading on the dirt, so he should be able to get forward position from this rail draw as he switches over to turf. Daredevil’s progeny have won 19% of their turf sprint starts. The dam was a synthetic specialist and she has produced a 3-time turf sprint winner. This horse moves like one that should take to this surface, and I think it’s encouraging that Javier Castellano takes the mount for a trainer who often names live riders on his live horses.

Fair Value:
#1 FATHER OF LIES, at 7-2 or greater