TimeformUS Race Analysis

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 3

It's pretty easy to make a case for multiple runners in this state-bred maiden turf sprint. The one horse I'm mildly against is ML favorite Miss Im Pulsive (#4). She ran a reasonably fast race on debut, but now attempts to switch over to turf. While she does have some pedigree for this surface, her turf-winning dam was more successful on synthetic and dirt, winning stakes on each of those surfaces. This filly is quite small, and has one of the shortest, choppiest strides I've ever seen, not a characteristic you typically associate with turf success. She's not for me. I can make better cases for her two main rivals that figure to take money. Just Add Water (#11) faced open company on debut and seemed to handle sprinting on turf fairly well. She loomed as a threat in upper stretch before flattening out late, but the slight cutback and added fitness from that start should benefit her here. Willfull Mama (#10) is looking to get back on track following a disappointing return to turf last time at Aqueduct. Yet she didn't get the smoothest journey that day, becoming rank early before advancing 3-wide on the backstretch and into the far turn, then sustaining bumps in upper stretch. I don't mind her turning back in distance as a half-sister to Rotknee and My Mane Squeeze, two horses who have had plenty of one-turn success. I also have some interest in bigger prices switching back to turf. Vino Samara (#6) tried grass in her career debut and actually ran well until upper stretch at which point chasing an honest pace took its toll on her. She's bred to be a turf horse, but her dam was a turf sprint stakes winner. She fared much better sprinting on dirt than she did routing, so she might be able to produce her best finally getting into a turf sprint. My top pick is another horse switching back to turf. Lady Delilah (#8) ran like a filly who needed her debut last summer, which is the case for nearly all James Ferraro trainees. Yet she put forth a strong effort in her second start over this course and distance, closing strongly up the inside even when that wasn't the best place to be on the Mellon turf late in the meet. That was a reasonably strong race for the level, and any routine improvement on that performance makes her a major player here. I don't care about her turf route last season since she's a sprinter, and I'm encouraged that she actually did some running in her return on dirt last time even though she doesn't care for that surface.

Fair Value:
#5 LADY DELILAH, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 4

Perhaps this race is as simple as Bank Frenzy (#8) getting back into New York-bred company where he's won 5 of his last 6 starts with one second. That lone loss against state-breds did come at this distance in last year's Empire Classic where he was unable to catch today's rival Mama's Gold (#1), who wired the field on the front end. Bank Frenzy has clearly been in much better form than Mama's Gold since then, winning four consecutive races before failing to produce his best form against open company in the Weschester last time. He's a formidable rival for everyone in this field, but I was mildly disappointed in that last effort and don’t think he has as much margin for error as some may expect. Mama's Gold is a conundrum for handicappers, since he's run a few races that would crush this field. However, all of his best efforts have come at Aqueduct in the winter, and he's developed some concerning quirks over his last few starts. He has jumped tire tracks in two of his last four starts, and last time seemed to get unnerved early as he ran off uncontrollably on the front end. Some may perceive him as the lone speed here, but I still can't fully trust him. Drake's Passage (#5) won this race last year, but his form since then has been pretty discouraging. General Banker (#7) is as consistent as any horse on the circuit, but I've always felt that 9 furlongs is just a tad too far for him. If I'm going to beat the favorite, I want to do so with Locke and Key (#6) at what should be a better price than all of those other alternatives. Distance may also be a concern for this guy in the minds of some handicappers. However, Locke and Key has always struck me as the kind of horse who should relish added distance. He was campaigned as a turf marathoner early in his career, and has handled this distance on turf as recently as last summer. He has primarily raced over shorter distances in his dirt races, but he finished strongly going a mile in January and was staying on behind Bank Frenzy at that distance last time. He has the stride length and physical attributes of a horse who should love this distance, and he's proven he doesn't have to come from so far back if the pace is moderate.

Fair Value:
#6 LOCKE AND KEY, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 5

I view Sounds Like a Plan (#4) as the horse to beat in this state-bred allowance, but I'm concerned he may not be much of a price after running well against open company stakes horses last time. I thought that was a decent effort off the layoff, but I'm still not totally convinced that the Woodhaven was the strongest race overall. The entire field was separated by just about 2 lengths at the finish. Sounds Like a Plan does deserve credit for setting an honest pace over a rain-softened course before tiring. Yet he's shortened stride late in all of his prior turf starts, and I still want to see him finish off a race with a little more vigor. Perhaps we'll get that second off the layoff, especially now that the blinkers come off. His two main rivals are The Paddock Pastor (#10) and Pay the Juice (#2), who finished second and third in an allowance race at this level in April. The Paddock Paster launched a strong rally past the quarter pole into second, but I didn't love the way he hung on his left lead and seemed to flatten out late. Pay the Juice saved more ground on the final turn, but had to wait for room in upper stretch before finishing well for third. They both have some upside second off the layoff, but neither one figures to be some enticing price with Irad Ortiz and Flavien Prat riding. I want to go in a different direction with Leon Blue (#8) as he returns to turf. This runner showed talent during his two-year-old season, finishing second to a pair of stakes winners in each of his first two starts. He probably could have won his debut over the classy Out on Bail if not for a poor start. He then set a fast pace when run down by Jack and Jim when he stretched out to this distance. He got in a prep when he returned in April, staying in even when the race was rained off the turf. He appears to be much more of a turf horse, but he won on dirt anyway, suggesting that he's returned in strong form. Stretching out should allow him to use his speed, and believe he still has upside getting back to this surface.

Fair Value:
#8 LEON BLUE, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 7

Hush of a Storm (#9) figures to go favored in the Kingston as he gets back into New York-bred company for the first time since last fall. He ran reasonably well in a few stakes events against open foes on the all-weather surface at Turfway through the winter. Yet as a horse who has earned 6 of his 9 career victories on synthetic tracks, it shouldn't be any surprise that he maintained strong form in those spots. My issue with him is his last race when he got back to turf. It didn't appear as if there was much pace signed on in a short field, but two horses actually hooked up on the front end, which should have set up Hush of a Storm's late rally. However, he was unable to produce a kick, settling for last while part of a three-horse photo for third. He's likely to take money here going out for the dangerous Brad Cox barn with Flavien Prat getting aboard, but I don't think he necessarily has to win this race. The TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which is no surprise given the presence of a few key speeds, including frontrunning longshots Schlomo (#2) andUnion Trail (#6). Any pace that develops will obviously help the favorite, and could work against his main rival Itsallcomintogetha (#1), who fares best when he can attain forward early position. Looking beyond the favorites, the pace scenario should also benefit some better prices, of which Be of Courage (#4) is the one I want to bet. This horse has never attempted a stakes before, but he has gradually improved over the course of his career and seems ready for this step up in class now as a 5-year-old. He hinted at possessing this kind of ability when he crossed the wire first, only to be controversially disqualified, in October of 2023. His 2024 campaign was unfortunately cut short after a strong second to todays' rival Itsallcomingtogetha in a paceless race in May. However, he returned after a year away and seemed to pick right up where he left off, closing resolutely to beat a solid allowance field last month. He stands to move forward second off the layoff, and he should be a square price due to the low-profile connections.

Fair Value:
#4 BE OF COURAGE, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 9

I'm not trying to beat Silver Skillet (#1), even as a potential lukewarm favorite in this Mount Vernon. She won this race when it was rained off the turf last year, and some may view her form as having gone in the wrong direction since then. Yet I can easily find excuses for her poor efforts between now and then. She was inexplicably rated in both the Yaddo and Hettinger late last year, and she just doesn't run her best races when taken that far off the pace. She got back to more aggressive tactics in the Ticonderoga, and produced a better result, finishing third. Some might be disappointed by that effort given her prior stakes wins, but she set an honest pace and earned a career-best 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure that day. Since then she's had two no-chance trips. She was wide against a very strong rail bias on dirt in December, and last time at Gulfstream she was never in the right position to be effective, rated and wide throughout. Now she's drawn the rail getting her regular rider Joel Rosario back aboard. Even if she isn't sent to the front, she can work out a nice pocket trip from this rail draw. I believe she's better than this group and will win if the trip works out. I definitely prefer her to main rival Whatlovelookslike (#10), who may take money off her competitive speed figures, especially with Irad Ortiz aboard. She's done her best in marathon races recently and didn’t do much with a good trip when beaten by Silver Skillet in the Ticonderoga last year. Awesome Czech (#5) has more upside as a relatively new 4-year-old, making her second start off the layoff. She showed talent last year, and will be the main threat to my top pick if she improves at all off her return race. I even gave a look to Spinning Colors (#2), who has run some of her best races at Saratoga in the past. She's been sent to the lead in recent starts, but she doesn't have to run that way and may benefit from a stalking trip this time. She was cooked in a fast pace against tougher in her last start. Yet that race does also fit a pattern of her not running as well when she can't use Lasix.

Fair Value:
#1 SILVER SKILLET, at 5-2 or greater
 

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Learn more about TimeformUS and get PPs.

PLAYS

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 2

Hideaway (#4) has to be considered the horse to beat as she drops in class back down to the maiden ranks. She really didn't have much business taking on Grade 2 company last time, and no one in that field was any match for the division leader Nitrogen. She saved ground every step of the way, but that may not have been the best plan over a turf course that appeared to be favoring outside paths that weekend. Her debut on turf at Gulfstream makes her a contender here, but she does figure to be a short price with Irad Ortiz getting back aboard. I'll try to beat her with Fire's Out (#5), who is stretching out in distance second off the layoff for Jorge Duarte. I really thought this filly would take to the grass when she got on it last time, but my one concern about her that day was the distance. I just questioned the cutback to 6 furlongs for a horse who had debuted, and run well, going 7 furlongs on dirt last year. She clearly took to turf, traveling well while racing in traffic along the inside to the quarter pole. She got through in deep stretch and was finishing well, just too late. Now she's stretching out to the distance that I think she'll prefer, and she may yet be a fair price given her relatively light speed figures. The bomb that I would throw in somewhere, mostly underneath, is Ratu Jawa (#6). These aren't connections that win much, but this filly actually did some running on debut at Gulfstream with a 5-wide trip. She has turf pedigree, and may have some upside getting on this surface at a huge price.

Fair Value:
#5 FIRE'S OUT, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 5

I'm not getting too clever here, and have little interest in trying to beat logical contender On a Sumer Day (#7). I think this filly is clearly the most likely winner, and she may not even go favored due to the lower-profile connections. Yet she ran better than main rival Nonna Lynne (#5) when they met as 2-year-olds on Sep. 13, and then got the wrong ride and trip when aggressively sent to the lead against open company on Nov. 14. She got back to the turf off a layoff last time and looked like a horse who had really grown up over the winter. She got a good trip, but closed powerfully down the center of the course, as the only one matching the finishing speed with superior winner Gallant Greta late. That was going a mile, but she strikes me as one that should benefit from an extra sixteenth here. Ruben Silvera has ridden the turf well all spring so far, and I think she'll be a handful in this spot. There are a few first time turfers to consider. Some will naturally gravitate towards the obvious pedigree play Night Jasmine (#1), though she still has to prove she has much ability. I would use her, but the first time turfer that interests me a little more is Trulli Magic (#8). This filly doesn't have as much grass pedigree as some others, but she has the action of a turf horse, and the stride length of a filly who should want more ground than the sprint distances she's been running. I don't love that she tends to break slowly, but she does get a rider upgrade to Dylan Davis here. She's the one that I'll use most prominently in combination with my top pick.

Fair Value:
#7 ON A SUMMER DAY, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 6

Velvet Vortex (#8) appears to be a legitimate favorite in this first-level allowance, owning a pair of TimeformUS Speed Figures that tower over this field. She won her debut as the favorite like a filly with a future, earning a 111 TimeformUS Figure. Her odds-on loss as the favorite second time out might seem like a disappointment at first glance. Yet that race featured an extremely fast pace, which she initially chased before getting outrun into the turn. She actually stayed on gamely to just miss second in a race where the pace completely fell apart. Her pace-adjusted 114 TimeformUS Figure was actually an improvement on the debut. I would be a little skeptical of the stretch-out to a mile, but she physically looks like one that may be suited to it, and her early speed should allow her to get over from this outside post. The only problem is that she's trying something new as a short-priced favorite, and those types are rarely for me. Table Flirt (#2) is one alternative to consider after she chased home the talented Shred the Gnar last time at Churchill. She appeared to handle the dirt well, but just lacked a finish at the end, so turning back to a mile could work for her. Chad Brown also sends out a couple of contenders, and most will lean towards the faster Donor Advised (#9). I just didn't love how hard she had to work to beat professional maiden Shirl's Delight last time. She also seems like a horse that should be better suited to going longer than this. My top pick is Brown's other runner Limes Don't Lie (#4). She obviously has to run faster to upset the favorite, but she comes into this race still with plenty of upside. She faced a good field on debut last year, chasing home future graded stakes winner Quietside. She spent plenty of time on the sidelines thereafter, but I thought her return at Aqueduct in April was encouraging. She broke a step slowly, and then moved up while traveling very keenly between horses. Dylan Davis had to wrangle her back on the turn to prevent her from running up on heels, and lost some momentum before angling her outside to produce a winning kick. She strikes me as one who should handle a mile, and I expect improvement if she's more relaxed second off the layoff.

Fair Value:
#4 LIMES DON'T LIE, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 7

I don't have a major knock against Future Is Now (#2), the expected favorite in this Grade 2 Intercontinental. She just doesn't appear to have that much room for error, and horses like this who keep winning tend to go off at shorter and shorter prices. She's now seeking her sixth victory in her last 7 starts, and her consistency is admirable. That will to win is perhaps what helped her to get her nose down at the right time when beating today's rival Pandora's Gift (#1) in the Giant's Causeway off a layoff. There doesn't appear to be much separating the form of these two runners, but Future Is Now is a win machine whereas Pandora's Gift has lost her last 5 starts. The right horse to take out of the Giant's Causeway may be Danse Macabre (#4), who checked in third. There wasn't much pace signed on in that spot, and they really walked through the first half mile, so it was hardly ideal that this mare found herself last on the backstretch. She did well to save ground and cut the corner in upper stretch before riding the rail into the frame late. That was her first start off the layoff for the Clement barn, and she has some races over the last two seasons for her prior connections that would give her a big chance here if she can get back to them. My top pick is Kairyu (#7), who makes her first start back from a layoff here after a 3-year-old season that saw her run well without winning on a few occasions. She put in a strong effort over this course and distance last summer in the Coronation Cup, just losing to today's rival Twirling Queen when that one was in top form. Kairyu then encountered some traffic at Kentucky Downs, and was really never in the right spot when she closed out her campaign in the Franklin. That was a tough spot for her, and she also was given little chance by floating so wide on the turn. She gets a big rider upgrade to Flavien Prat for this return, and she appears to be working well for Cherie DeVaux, who can have one ready off a layoff.

Fair Value:
#7 KAIRYU, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 8

This high-level allowance optional claimer is one of the most competitive races on this entire card. There's no clear horse to beat, and I had a tough time setting a morning line for this field. I suppose Film Star (#8) will attract some support based on his prowess over this surface in the past. He did seem to finally get back on track last time when finishing a good second to the classy Bendoog. His tactical speed makes him dangerous here, but he does have to be used to get over from this wide draw. I believe the most likely winner is Willy D's (#4), and I'll be interested to see what price he settles around because I wouldn’t want to take too short a number on anyone in this field. He would be playable to me at his morning line price, but as I give this race a second look I could see him going favored. His last two efforts appear to fit well against this field. He was no match for Awesome Aaron two back at Oaklawn, but that form was flattered when that horse came back to win the Pimlico Special. Then last time he battled Gould's Gold gamely to the wire in a fast race at Churchill. I like the rider switch to Luis Saez, whose strong handling should suit this runner. My top pick is Surface to Air (#2) as he returns from a layoff. That's the major concern, since Peter Synnefias doesn't have much experience preparing horses off layoffs like this. I just think this runner may get somewhat overlooked despite the fact that he rounded into excellent form last season. He beat a bias when he won on this circuit in June, then didn't fare well in some stakes, but subsequently put in back-to-back top efforts when he came to Kentucky in the fall. He overcome a wide trip to win at Keeneland and then was unjustly disqualified in the Claiming Crown. I can excuse his last race because that was mess of a track at Parx, and speed was deadly that day. He picks up a live rider for his return to this circuit, and you know the distance suits him.

Fair Value:
#2 SURFACE TO AIR, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 9

If this race had been taking place a few months ago, Major Dude (#4) would be considered a solid favorite. However, a couple of disappointing recent results at short prices leave some doubts about his current form coming into this Grade 3 Poker. He had a valid excuse in the Appleton two back, but he got a much better trip last time in the Opening Verse at Churchill and just lacked a late kick when produced in the lane. He's not for me. Among the expected short prices, I much prefer Cameo Performance (#1). This colt had shown some hints of talent during his 3-year-old season before going to the sidelines in late summer. He finally seemed to put it all together when he returned from a layoff in the Muniz Memorial at Fair Grounds this year. Some may view his eighth-place result in the Grade 1 Turf Classic next time as a step backwards, but he actually ran an underrated race considering his trip. He launched a four-wide move on the far turn before understandably flattening out late. He now draws the rail and should work out a better journey. There doesn't appear to be much pace in here, so that naturally makes the veteran Filo Di Arianna (#3) dangerous, though Donegal Momentum (#8) should be breathing down his neck early, and I prefer the upside of that 4-year-old contender. He settled for second in allowance company last time, but he clearly ran the best race, dueling with the classy Big Everest on the front end, which left him vulnerable to a late challenge. He won't need to improve much on that last performance to factor here. My top pick is Intellect (#2), who makes his second start in this country. This French-bred was just coming to hand overseas last spring before going to the sidelines. Yet he couldn’t have competed in the French classics anyway, since geldings are excluded from those races. He debuted in the U.S. for Chad Brown in a Keeneland allowance last time and ran pretty well considering his trip. He never saw the rail, and was forced to go four-wide on the far turn when attempting to rally. He had shown better tactical speed in his French races, even leading throughout two back. According to the DRF Formulator, Chad Brown has excellent statistics with these types, going 7 for 31 (23%, $3.80 ROI) second off layoffs of 240 to 480 days in turf-route graded stakes over 5 years. I expect Flavien Prat to secure a spot just off those two speeds sitting in the pocket, and that should be the perfect setup for this runner to play his hand in the lane.

Fair Value:
#2 INTELLECT, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 10

I don't have much interest in Just So Pretty (#10), who looks like a contender on paper based on her string of triple-digit TimeformUS Speed Figures. I just haven't loved any of her races and feel that she's already had her chances to break through at this level. The most interesting runner in the race is probably Smartest (#9), who returns from a lengthy layoff to make her 3-year-old debut. She showed ability in her only start as a 2-year-old even though it came up a slow race at Colonial Downs. She was held up at the back early behind a slow pace and was stuck in traffic behind tiring runners on the far turn before getting into the clear in upper stretch. The winner had already gotten away from her at that point, but she finished up strongly like a horse who should come forward from that performance. Graham Motion can certainly have a horse ready to fire off a layoff, and this filly is bred to be a good one as a full-sister to stakes winner Memorialize. I view her as a contender, but I don't expect her to be some enticing price. Bint Al Dandy (#5) is another returning from a layoff with room for improvement. She did well to run up into mid-pack after a poor start at Kentucky Downs last summer. She's been given plenty of time since then, and appears to be working strongly for her return. My top pick is Faded Jeans (#7), who returns from a much shorter layoff for Cherie DeVaux. This filly didn't do much in her debut at Fair Grounds, but her last race in March was definitely a step in the right direction. She led setting legitimate fractions, and just got tired late when passed by the good-looking winner Hope Mission. That horse returned to disappoint, but something may have gone awry in her next start. The runner-up from that Mar. 23 race, Stellify, did win her next race with a 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Faded Jeans has been working well for this, including a recent drill in company with stakes winner Deep Satin. I also like that she has the speed to lead this field early in a race where so many of her rival want to rally from off the pace.

Fair Value:
#7 FADED JEANS, at 7-1 or greater