David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

All of It (#2) figures to take plenty of money coming off a visually impressive debut win downstate. However, she wasn't beating the strongest field that day, and this is a big jump in class. Boomington (#4), Neshika (#5), and Cosmic Candy Girl (#6) all met in the Key Cents at the end of their 2-year-old seasons. The latter two have already gotten in preps for this whereas Boomington comes off a layoff after she was a somewhat unlucky loser in that juvenile finale. Of that trio, I somewhat prefer Neshika, who ran like a horse that just got tired off the layoff. She can move forward. I'm just going in a different direction for my top pick. I find it interesting that Chad Brown is bringing Bryant and Cooper (#9) back in an allowance race after he risked her for a tag in her final start of last season. She ran well to win that day, closing from well back with a powerful late kick. She had disappointed in her prior attempt at this level last July, but got a wide trip from a tough post. The Slumber progeny tend to improve with age, and I wonder if she's moved forward during the time away. The price should be fair, especially for this barn.

RACE 2

I had high hopes for Soaring Spirit (#7) when she made her debut at Aqueduct last month. She ran a winning race, but just couldn't forge past the winner in the final stages. A bump at the start and trouble settling early on may have taken away from her late kick. The most notable thing about her is her massive stride, a key difference between she and Pelican Pride (#8), who has a scrappier way of going. I tend to think there's a bit more upside with Soaring Spirit, though they both go out for barns that can improve horses second time out. Amazing Gracer (#10) made a premature 3-wide move in that race before flattening out late. The problem is that she drew a wide post once again. New York Special (#2) figures to appreciate the switch to turf as a half-sister to Grade 1 grass winner Casa Creed. She appeared to have a turfy stride on debut, and her early speed should play well in this spot.

RACE 3

Scottish Lassie (#3) is the proven class of this allowance/optional-claimer, but she might not be cranked up to produce her best effort off the layoff. She needed her career debut at Saratoga in 2024, and then again wasn't fit to run her "A" race off the bench when she launched her 3-year-old season. She also isn't the most reliable sort in general, and she's achieved both of her Grade 1 victories over longer distances than this. She's clearly the horse to beat, but I have some reservations at a likely short price. The speed of this compact field could be Roman Grace (#2), who now makes her first start off the claim for Linda Rice. She's stepping up in class, and has to carry her speed carry furlongs but she does appear to be in strong form at the moment. My top pick is Limes Don't Lie (#1), another filly who doesn't usually run her best races off layoffs. The good news is that she got a race under her belt last time, chasing home the superior Munnings Express. She figures to benefit from that fitness builder, as she had to use herself late in the race after losing some ground in upper stretch. I liked the way she kept coming in the final furlong to just miss second. She was an impressive winner up here last summer, and she can upset the favorite if able to build on that form now as a 4-year-old.

RACE 4

Zulu Kingdom (#2) is going to be a handful as he drops out of Grade 1 company into this Poker, especially after Dave Grening reported that both David Jacobson runners will scratch. That makes Zulu Kingdom the controlling speed, and he figures to be a handful from that position. I do think he's somewhat overrated off that recent victory, since he got away with a slow pace in a race where plenty of rivals had trouble in behind. He just may get that same trip again. The only alternative that I can endorse is Pass the Hat (#5). This horse has running winning races in each of his last three starts. He was unlucky to lose when stuck in traffic every step of the way of that March allowance at Gulfstream. And then last time he upset the heavy favorite Intellect with a strong finish from close range. He is the one horse in this race who has shown the tactical speed to apply pressure to the favorite, and perhaps he has a touch more upside.

RACE 5

After scratches, the horse to beat is probably Joker On Fire (#10), who ran well off the layoff last time and showed plenty of ability in his turf debut last year. He has some things to prove cutting back to this 5 1/2 furlong distance, but is obviously a contender. Rhyton (#6) won convincingly on debut last year, albeit against maiden claiming company. It's probably a good sign that he's moving up to the allowance level for his return from the layoff for Miguel Clement. I'm just a little more intrigued by some of the younger rivals. Truman's Commander (#2) kept good company last winter and fall. His lone turf sprint didn't go well, but he was badly compromised by a slow pace that day. He's intriguing as he returns from the layoff for the red hot Mark Casse barn. Cristobal (#11) is a horse that I never loved last season, but he wanted no part of routing in his juvenile finale. He's mildly intriguing as he returns while turning back to a sprint. Yet the horse that I really want to bet is Diliello (#9). Tom Morley can win off layoffs like this, and this horse seemed to appreciate sprinting on turf at Saratoga last summer. He was a big, impressive 2-year-old who looked like he had to develop into his large frame. He's another getting Lasix for the first time, and any pace that develops should benefit him.

RACE 6

There's plenty of guesswork to be done in this maiden special weight for 2-year-olds. Booked (#9) took a ton of money on debut and lost all chance when he broke poorly. He closed well for second while lugging in a bit, but it's unclear how strong that field was. I was more interested in some of the first time starters. Just a Holiday (#3) and Pinpoint (#5) will take money for dangerous connections. Just a Holiday is a half-brother to Welsey Ward's Grade 1 winner Chi Town Lady, whereas Pinpoint is by excellent debut sire Not This Time out of a stakes-winning dam who won her debut. I slightly prefer the latter, but both are dangerous. My top pick is Call Attendent (#10), who may get somewhat overlooked debuting for Tom Morley. He worked a strong 10-flat at OBS April and I like that he's making to the races so soon after that sale. You would think Speaker's Corner would be a sire of precocity even though we haven't seen many of his progeny debut yet.

RACE 7

It's another inscrutable turf race where I found myself considering many options. Complex Agenda (#1) and Gene and Jude (#3) are two of the more logical options, of which I prefer the local form of the former. Mo Kreesa (#4) ran pretty well when he got rained off the turf last time, perhaps a signal that he's rounding back into top form. He has performed well on turf in the past. Salt Spartan (#2) is another switching from dirt to turf after finishing right behind Mo Kreesa in that off the turf April allowance. The difference is that Salt Spartan had never run particularly well on dirt before, so that sudden improvement is more noteworthy. If he can transfer that form to turf, he may be ready to beat a field like this. He also gets a significant rider upgrade. My top pick is Rabaja (#11), who returns from a layoff here. This horse runs his best races when he can attain forward position, and I would imagine that Ruben Silvera will send from the outside. He has to improve on his 2025 form to beat this field, but I really liked the visual of a recent workout, suggesting that he's returning in good condition. He has run races in the past that would give him a big chance against this field.

RACE 8

Slay the Day (#4) is probably going to beat this field at a very short price. She has been in razor sharp form since switching to turf earlier this year, only losing once to division leader Cy Fair across her 3 starts on this surface. If there's one intriguing alternative in this field, I think it's Alpenglow (#7), who is still unexposed as a turf sprinter. Both prior turf starts have gone awry, as she broke poorly each time. She got rank when rated going too far in her turf debut, and then rushed up after a poor start in the Take the A Train last time. She ran well enough despite the trouble to suggest that she might have been the best horse that day. Now she's drawn outside, which may help her break better, and she might possess the speed to get in front of the favorite early.

RACE 9

I didn't have a strong feel for this one. Forgiving Spirit (#9) comes back to dirt off a disappointing effort, but his prior dirt races at Aqueduct make him a contender here. Shoot the Nickel (#12) has the right running style though some speed did scratch out of the race. He is getting a huge rider upgrade to Flavien Prat.

RACE 10

Long Pour (#12) finally gets back into New York-bred company after facing open foes in his recent allowance attempts. He caught some pretty tough rivals in those races, so the class relief should benefit him. He has speed, but is drawn well outside. There's plenty of speed in this race, which should benefit Leo's Reward (#7). Some might be scared off by the apprentice rider named aboard, but she gave some decent rides on dirt down at Aqueduct. This horse probably needed his return from the layoff, and can pick up pieces late with a step forward. My top pick is Toscano (#1), who should also appreciate some pace up front. He really blossomed off the claim for Mike Maker last year before going to the sidelines. He's primarily gone longer in recent starts, but I don't mind him turning back to 7 furlongs off a layoff. He has a tricky inside post, but I trust in Prat to work out a trip.

RACE 11

I didn't have a clever take on this finale. Irish Goodbye (#11) is the horse to beat. He was probably best on debut when nearly surviving a quick pace, and then last time was run down by a pretty good rival. He's burned money, but may not be catching the toughest field here. I'll try to beat him with King Farro (#4), who tried to go a mile off the layoff last time and simply got tired. That was asking a lot, and now he turns back to a distance that he seemed to prefer on debut. He's shown talent, and can beat his main rival with any move forward second off the layoff.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

For analysis of today's races, check out David Aragona's and Mike Beer's DRF Betting Strategies, featuring in-depth analysis, wagers, and multi-race strategies for the races on this card.

David Aragona is a Daily Racing Form handicapper and morning line oddsmaker for NYRA races.

TimeformUS past performances, available from Daily Racing Form, offer a revolutionary set of tools for analyzing pace, speed figures, and form. Get PPs.

Strategies & Insights

View David's Highlight Horse for this card.

RACE 1

Hadrian's Wall (#8) looked like a future stakes horse when he was unveiled last fall, and might have broken his maiden already if not for facing a pair of talented Chad Brown stablemates in those two prior starts. He got the distance late in his 2-year-old season, so I don't mind him returning at 9 furlongs. I briefly considered Sorrentino (#5) as an alternative, since he was a bit green on debut after ducking in at the start. I'm just not sure how much quality he possesses and we already know the favorite is quite good. Nothing clever, but a likely winner to start the card.

RACE 2

My primary knock against Hit the Post (#3) when he returned at Aqueduct last month was that he had never run a particularly strong race at that downstate venue. In each season so far, he has really blossomed when the Melanie Giddings barn moves up to Saratoga for the summer, and his sharp recent workouts suggest that will be the case once again. He was beaten by today's rival Elysian Meadows (#2) at this level last time, but that horse was just picking up pieces at the end and never looked like a serious win contender. Hit the Post got tired trying 7 furlongs off the bench, and he should appreciate this slight turnback. The other horse that I want to use is Russi (#7), who hasn't run on the dirt much recently, but might be better on this surface than his last two dirt efforts indicate. Both of those recent attempts came off layoffs, but his dirt performances early in his career really weren't that much worse than his turf efforts. Intriguingly, his two prior best efforts on dirt came at Saratoga with Luis Saez aboard, and those are the circumstances today.

RACE 3

The two horses I pegged as the morning line favorites don't do much for me. Criteria (#6) ran well on debut last year behind Ted Noffey, but I really haven't been thrilled with his two efforts since returning from a layoff this year. Hero Declared (#1) was all the rage when he was unveiled last summer, and might have won had he not run into the precocious It's Our Time. I don't love that he went to the sidelines after that, and I wonder how much improvement there can be for a horse who was already so physically advanced as a 2-year-old. Tab At Zanzibar (#3) seems like a logical contender off his runner-up effort on debut behind the highly regarded Sea Strike, especially in a race where so few have run their top efforts recently. Todd Pletcher has a pair of first time starters, of which Dark Moon (#10) is likely to take more money off a highly rated workout last week. However, his pedigree leans more turf. I'd be more interested in Presidential Power (#4). I like what I've seen from his workouts, and I don't view it as a negative that Kendrick Carmouche gets the mount since he is 6 for 21 (29%, $2.06 ROI) riding firsters for this barn in dirt sprints over 5 years. My top pick is the other Chad Brown trainee Accost (#8). He's another who showed talent on debut at Saratoga last year and hasn't run as well in two subsequent starts. Though, he was contesting a fast pace dueling with the very fast Stradale in his second start last summer. And then everything went wrong off the layoff last time when he leapt up at the start and lost all chance. He's likely to rebound here, and the price should be fair enough.

RACE 4

It's hard to look past the two favorites in this Bed O Roses. Ways and Means (#3) has the proven affinity for Saratoga and is the defending champion in this race, earning a career-best speed figure when she won it last year. However, we didn't see her best effort off the layoff in the Derby City Distaff last time. Grand Job (#1), on the other hand, is coming off a career-best effort when just missing in the Grade 1 Madison. She is a horse that they had tried to turn into a dirt router when she first came to this country, primarily due to her pedigree. Yet she's proven on the racetrack that she's more of a sprinter, and has really blossomed since getting that prep behind her at Churchill last fall. The Madison obviously got a huge speed figure, and that form was flattered when R Disaster returned to beat Ways and Means in the Derby City. Grand Job is controlling speed from the rail, and I think she's going to be awfully tough for her main rival to run down.

RACE 5

Di Natale (#7) is obviously the horse to beat based on her three U.S. starts, having earned speed figures that make her faster than today's rivals. The problem is that she's settled for second in all of those races, and you have to get a little concerned about her desire to win. She got pretty good trips in all of those races, was in position to seal the deal in the late stages, and couldn't quite see it out each time. She's obviously dangerous, but given that seconditis, I want to look elsewhere. One alternative is Emblaze (#1), who has upside in just the third start of her career. She came with a big late run to win her debut at Tampa Bay Downs, and then held her own against a tougher field in the Take the A Train. She didn't get a completely clear run like she did first time out, having to weave her way through traffic. Turning back to 5 1/2 furlongs in a race with more pace may suit her. My top pick is Princess Andi (#3), who I will upgrade after scratches. This filly looked like she wanted no part of routing on debut, and responded well to the turnback during her 2-year-old season. That wasn't the strongest field and she was offered up for a tag, but she did run well to win after stalking a pace that came apart. I find it interesting that Chad Brown has entered her in a Belmont week allowance rather than a softer spot, and the addition of Flavien Prat seems notable.

RACE 6

I'm not getting too creative here, and find it difficult to look past the two expected favorites. Shelzawa (#8) showed off a big turn of foot in her debut in France, just missing after overcoming to traffic to surge at the wire. She wasn't quite as explosive in the subsequent loss by a narrow margin, but did finish in a photo with a horse who went on to place in a Group 3 event. In a small sample, Chad Brown is 5 for 8 ($4.41 ROI) with maiden foreign shippers over the last 5 years. Her main rival looks like Secretly Delighted (#4), who chased home future graded stakes winner Ground Support last summer at Kentucky Downs. She's been off for a long time, but certainly has pedigree to develop into a stakes horse, being a half-sibling to Sweet Melania and Sweet Rebecca. The others in here didn't do much for me. Defence (#3) didn't get an idea trip when she finished second at Aqueduct last time, but I didn't think that maiden special weight was nearly as strong as this one.

RACE 7

This allowance optional claimer came up extremely competitive. Full Screen (#1) looks like the horse to beat, and should make it three wins in a row if he returns in top form. Though there have to be some doubts about his ability to produce his best effort off a layoff as his connections offer him up for the $110k tag. Bendoog (#7) is the main rival based on recent form, but he's a tough horse to endorse on the win end given his propensity to settle for minor awards. Even last time, though he was technically a winner, he settled for a dead heat after looking on his way to a score in mid-stretch. Money Game (#8) still has upside in just the fourth start of his career as he seeks to maintain his undefeated record. I do think he will have to run better than he ever has before, and he's shown persistent greenness in his races that may hamper him at this level. My top pick is Bourbon Day (#3), who is stretching back out to a distance that just works much better for him. He's run some of his best races around two turns on dirt, and a repeat of his performance from Nov. 21 can certainly put him in the winner's circle against this field. He tried to turn all the way back to 7 furlongs last time, but that's just too short for him. Yet perhaps that sprint will have sharpened his speed for stretching back out here.

RACE 8

The runners who finished directly behind Jaipur runner John the Beer Man seem like the two favorites in this allowance optional claimer. Mentee (#10) had obvious trouble in the early stages of that race, getting badly fouled by a longshot into the far turn and losing valuable position. It's a credit to him that he was able to come back on to get third thereafter, and he might have won with a clean trip. However, Final Verdict (#3) also ran well to be second in that spot. He was chasing John the Beer man up front and never completely threw in the towel hanging on for second. They are primary contenders, but there are some others to consider. Boltage (#7) had a very tough trip in his most recent turf start in April. That may not have been as tough a field as this one, but he arguably should have won after getting rank, checked and shuffled into the turn. Despite that trouble, he still stayed on well to just miss second. My top pick is Twisted Filigree (#9). He has to prove that he's still capable of producing the form that carried him to victory over this course last summer. Yet I can make some excuses for his recent efforts. Those 5-furlong turf sprints at Gulfstream are run at such a fast pace, and he was simply outrun in the early stages. He also was done no favors by his jockey showing so little aggressive last time and then getting steadied in the early stages. I expect Manny Franco to be aggressive from this outside post position and he should be fast enough to stay involved from the start getting back to Saratoga.

RACE 9

Lion Lake (#8) stands out on paper given her series of superior speed figures. She's faced better company than this, and has held her own in those races. Though, I could also argue that she was in position to win both the Appalachian and the Edgewood, and she failed to get the job done. Now she's drawn in the outside post position going a distance that might be slightly too far for her. At the price she's likely to be, I think there's reason to look elsewhere for better value. Time to Dream (#5) finished behind Lion Lake in the Edgewood, but she didn't get an ideal trip. She was never inside, and then got briefly stymied in upper stretch just as she was launching her run. She also got a compromised trip in the Breeders' Cup last fall, so her form isn't quite as poor as it looks. Perhaps she can rebound getting back to her favorite course. My top pick is Call On Me (#7), who makes her stakes debut for Rusty Arnold. She beat a pretty good field when she broke her maiden this spring, and then she caught a stakes-quality group of allowance horses last time at Churchill Downs. She was no match for the top two in the late stages, but that was a race that fell apart and she was the one who made the first move after going 3-wide without cover early. I think she fits with this group.

RACE 10

It's a small field in the Acorn, but there are things to like about each of the four fillies exiting the Kentucky Oaks. Always a Runner (#5) is obviously going to be tough to beat as she seeks to keep her undefeated record intact. She was best on Oaks Day, but she also got a very good trip en route to victory. She got perfect cover from Meaning (#3) down the backstretch, and was able to follow that one through a hole when she moved on the turn. Meaning ultimately had her chance and just couldn't hold off the late charge of Always a Runner, suggesting that the winner may just want the distance a little more. They're strong contenders right back, but so are the two who finished behind them. Prom Queen (#1) didn't get off to a very good start, and it put her out of position for the entire race. She was running on well at the end, but some of that was due to the fast pace that developed ahead of her. She's a rebound candidate, but she has to break cleanly to have her best chance. My top pick is Counting Stars (#2), who might be the forgotten horse from the Oaks. On the surface of things, she got a great trip, riding the pocket for the first 7 furlongs. Yet the pace was pretty quick, and she was the one closest to the lead in the early stages of the group returning here. She looked dangerous in upper stretch, but her jockey could never quite get her into a clear path. It's not as if she had to steady or anything, but she didn't see daylight until the final sixteenth of a mile, and she did kick on again when finally clear before galloping out best. I think her tactical speed makes her especially dangerous in this smaller field, and I don't mind the rider switch to Irad Ortiz.

RACE 11

Chad Brown holds a very strong hand, sending out four of the nine runners in the Grade 1 New York, a race he has won 5 times in the last 10 years. Not among that quartet is Gezora (#9), who spent just one race under Brown's care, a second-place finish in the Modesty, before owner Peter Brant moved the vast majority of his stable to different trainers. Dismay over that loss was reportedly the breaking point in that relationship, so now Gezora will attempt to regain her standing as the top U.S. turf horse for new trainer Bill Mott. However, she will have to improve for that new barn after she was no match for Brown's Kathynmarissa (#8) in the Modesty. The winner produced an explosive late kick as she soared past her rivals to victory. Like Gezora, Kathynmarissa was returning from a layoff that day and may have further upside in the second start of her campaign. I believe she, not the Breeders' Cup winner, is the one to beat. If one of that pair loses, it is likely because one of Brown's other entrants pulled off an upset. Portfolio Duration (#1) offers some appeal after she just missed in the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile when making her stakes debut last month. That was over a mile, but she appeared to run out of ground in the late stages and is certainly bred to handle added ground. The Brown runner that I believe may offer the best value is City Girl (#7). She exits a victory over last year's Grade 1 Just a Game winner Dynamic Pricing in the Beaugay. It was a strange trip, as she initially went forward to set the pace but then was taken in hand to rate around the first bend. She proceeded racing in a pocket before angling out in upper stretch and asserting her superiority late. That was a completely different running style than she had used in Florida this winter, rallying to victory against allowance company two back. She has progressed in each start since coming into Chad Brown's barn, and she previously showed affinity for longer distances in her prior French form. I expect this distance to suit her, and her newfound tactical speed should give jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. plenty of options.

RACE 12

I wish I had a stronger opinion in this Phipps. I get that Nitrogen (#5) has displayed some vulnerabilities in two recent losses, and I really wanted to try and beat her in this spot. I just think that this older filly and mare division is relatively thin at the moment, and she has still run the fastest speed figures and achieved the best results of anyone in this field. I took a freakish performance to beat her last time, and if not Claret Beret, Nitrogen would have been an easy winner of the Apple Blossom in decent time. I like her getting away from Oaklawn and back to Saratoga, and she's supposed to get her preferred outside stalking trip from this post. Main rival Fully Subscribed (#1) might have the upside to beat the champion, but I wish I could get a little more excited about her form. She beat weaker fields than this when she won a pair of stakes at Aqueduct last year, and I was a bit disappointed that she was unable to win off the layoff in the La Troienne, especially since that race didn't come up terribly deep. The alternative that I wanted to endorse is Regaled (#2), who was a little unlucky in the Apple Blossom last time. She got caught in traffic on the far turn at a point when she needed to build momentum. I just worry that she won't get the setup she needs in this compact field without much pace.

RACE 13

The two favorites appear to have the edge in this New York-bred allowance. Grace and Grit (#6) took her game to the next level off the trainer switch to Amelia Green recently, and responded very well to the turnback to 7 furlongs in her last start. There is pace in here to set up her late run. I just thought main rival Karley B (#7) might have a bit more upside as she steps up against winners for the first time. She has had issues breaking from the gate in both prior starts, and that's obviously a concern again here. Yet she was clearly best in that debut race after the rough start, and adapted better last time by using her speed to get into position early. I think she's capable of beating Grace and Grit if she finally breaks better.

RACE 14

This maiden finale looks totally wide open. Limited Edition (#6) owns some of the best form of anyone in this field, and ran pretty well behind the improved Lov'em or Liam last time on synthetic. However, he has also had his fair share of chances to break through this level and keeps settling for minor awards. Knowledge Sharing (#11) is obviously dangerous debuting for Chad Brown, and has some nice turf pedigree going back through his female family. He just drew a tough post position, but that may help the price. I could have made cases for a lot of horses in this field, but there are two that I want to key on. One of those is first time turfer Okefenokee (#4). I'm not sure that Maxfield is much of a grass influence, but this runner's damside pedigree is pretty good for turf. He looked like a horse who just needed his debut experience, getting off slowly and then climbing greenly at the back. I expect him to progress here. My top pick is Silent Impact (#5). He wanted no part of dirt in his Gulfstream debut, but then took a big step forward with the switch to grass last time. He was rated off the pace early and then launched this 4-wide backstretch move into a fast pace, taking over before the quarter pole. Those tactics rarely work out on grass, and he understandably paid the price late. He now gets a significant rider upgrade to Junior Alvarado, and figures to run his best race to date with a more patient ride.