Between The Hedges: On handicapping challenges

by NYRA Press Office

The following is the third edition of a bi-weekly series entitled Between The Hedges. The series will revolve around the business of betting focusing on trending wagering topics and statistics. Each installment will include a column penned by Joe Longo, NYRA General Manager of Content Services, examining certain areas of interest within the landscape of the thoroughbred racing industry. Send your questions for Between The Hedges to [email protected].

OZONE PARK, N.Y. – The New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) has worked with our customer base to modernize our handicapping challenge format to feature online play at a variety of price points throughout the year.

In the past, most NYRA handicapping challenges were centered around marquee events like the Wood Memorial or the Belmont Stakes. In most cases, these events were also held on track which made it more of a localized event.

In 2019, NYRA launched its current online challenge format and participation significantly increased. In order to enter and play online, contestants must be registered NYRA Bets account holders. To learn more, visit www.NYRA.com/challenge.

The online challenges were modified based on feedback from our customer base, with requests including a varied price point of entry; more prize money distribution; and many customers expressed interest in seats for the National Handicapping Championship (NHC) or Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) in lieu of cash or a combination of both.

The NHC seats are highly sought after. Last year, Thomas Goldsmith captured the 21st edition of the NTRA National Horseplayers Championship at Bally’s Las Vegas, and took home an $800,000 top prize as well as an Eclipse Award as Horseplayer of the Year. The most recent NHC offered prize money and awards totaling more than $2.9 million.

The 2020 contest results were encouraging. A total of 25 contests were held with 2,500 players wagering $1.3 million while competing for a prize pool of approximately $700,000. A total of 23 seats were provided to players - 11 for the 2021 NHC; three for the 2021 Belmont Stakes Challenge; two for the 2020 BCBC; and the remaining six seats for other NYRA challenges throughout the year.

While the challenge series format and prize distribution continue to evolve, the live money format remains. The players keep their winnings played through their bank roll plus any prize money. 

One thing that needs to be stressed is that 100 percent of the prize pool is returned to the customers. NYRA does not charge entry fees or service fees. 

So, If NYRA does not charge fees for the contest, why are we doing them and how is it that we benefit? 

Challenge play involves a different type of strategy and with it a different type of player, which adds diversity to our platform and appeals to different customers. The races in the challenge series contests are all from our tracks, so it helps promote our content and NYRA earns revenue from the takeout from the bets placed. The numbers have also shown that when playing in contests the customers are wagering other tracks through NYRA Bets as well. 

Handicapping challenges play an important role for NYRA across the larger wagering landscape. In 2020, we started hosting challenges weekly and in 2021 we will be offering contests for about 11 months of the year. Consistency, as with other types of wagering opportunities such as the weekly Cross Country Pick 5, is important. We want our customers to know that for just about every week of the year, we are offering a contest. 

In addition, with the increased amount of broadcast hours for live racing on America’s Day at the Races, the national telecast produced by NYRA in partnership with FOX Sports, we can further leverage our reach and influence to drive people to our contests and wagering platform. The leaderboard for all of these contests are posted throughout the day on America’s Day at the Races.

Send your questions for Between The Hedges to [email protected].

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The 2021 NYRA Handicapping Challenge Series

The Belmont Stakes Challenge

The 2021 Belmont Stakes Challenge (June 4 – 5) has an entry fee of $10,000, of which $2,500 will go directly to the prize pool, with the remaining $7,500 comprising each participants’ bankroll.

Entrants for the two-day Belmont Stakes Challenge will compete for one seat to the 2022 Belmont Stakes Challenge, four NHC seats and two BCBC seats.

The $3,000 NYRA Bets handicapping challenge

NYRA will offer six NYRA Bets live-money handicapping challenges in 2021 featuring a $3,000 buy-in with each event offering cash prizes, a seat in another 2021 $3,000 NYRA Bets contest and two 2022 NHC seats.

The $3,000 NYRA Bets handicapping challenge series begins Saturday, March 6 with the Gotham Challenge.

The $300 live-money handicapping challenge

Each Saturday throughout the racing season - with the exception of the NYRA Bets challenge series dates and also May 1, May 15, and November 6 - NYRA Bets will offer a $300 live-money handicapping challenge.

The NYRA Bets $300 live-money handicapping challenge ($200 live bankroll / $100 prize pool) offers cash prizes to the top seven finishers, while players that land eighth through tenth in the standings will receive an entry in next week’s contest ($300 value).

To learn more, visit www.NYRA.com/challenge.

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Deicke hoping to rise to the Gotham Challenge

Ed Deicke, a 54-year-old financial advisor from Lido Beach, New York, has turned a lifelong love of horse racing into a potentially lucrative hobby as a prominent player on the National Horseplayers Championship [NHC] tour.

“I do mostly retirement planning. It’s all I’ve ever done and I really do love it,” said Deicke, who also serves as a mentor for prospective NHC players. “The market has its ups and downs and managing expectations is probably harder than managing the money, but I enjoy it. I do math during the week and I do even more math on the weekends.”

Although currently enjoying winter as a snowbird in Florida, Deicke said he was raised on New York racing.

“I was born and bred at NYRA. My father brought me to Belmont Park when I was 13-years-old and it was a group of guys who loved sports and horse racing and loved to gamble and have a couple cocktails,” said Deicke. “They’d sit around and tell big stories which my father later told me none of them were true. The horse they needed didn’t lose by a nose; it lost by two lengths and it didn’t cost them $10,000, it only cost them $300. But it was just great fun.”

Deicke reconnected with horse racing when he attended the 1998 Preakness at Pimlico Race Course, watching with a group of friends who hailed from the Floral Park area near Belmont Park and cheered home Kentucky Derby-winner Real Quiet.

“Three weeks later, Real Quiet took a big lead in the Belmont,” recalled Deicke. “He looked like he was going to break the string of all those years without a Triple Crown winner, but Victory Gallop got him by a nose that day.”

Deicke had his first major tournament experience at the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge [BCBC] at Del Mar in San Diego.

“I took my son-in-law to Del Mar for the BCBC and we came in tenth,” recalled Deicke. “We were first or second at one point in that tournament and had a great weekend. If I knew then what I know now, we maybe could have won.”

Deicke said that learning when and how to make big bets on key races requires experience. That first Breeders’ Cup learning experience centered around lessons learned from Bar of Gold’s win in the Filly and Mare Sprint [Race 6, $135.40] and Wuheida’s victory [Race 7, $24.40] in the Filly and Mare Turf.

“On Saturday, my partner said his best bet was Wuheida and I said that’s funny, that’s my best bet,” recalled Deicke. “Right before the Filly and Mare Sprint, we hadn’t made many bets and were down to $6,000. I knew we had to start betting about $900 per race five times, those were the rules. I forget who I liked, but he liked Bar of Gold, who won at 66-1. We had the exacta [with Ami’s Mesa] for $2 and got back $2,000.

“We also both loved Roy H [won the Sprint in Race 8 and paid $11.80],” added Deicke. “Thing is, I’d never made a $900 bet in my life. We couldn’t even conceive of betting that type of money. I was a $20-$20 win/place bettor back then. Now I’m a $50-$50 bettor. We probably should have played the $900 double Wuheida onto Roy H [which returned $160.80 for $2] and we loved the exacta cold in the Sprint [onto Imperial Hint, which returned $25.80 for $1].”

Deicke said he went into the Breeders’ Cup Classic with a chance to win the BCBC and had $4,000 to win on Gunnevera, who finished fifth at 15-1. His final bankroll of $48,860.50 was good for tenth place purse money of $25,000 and a seat in the NHC.

The winner, Nisan Gabbay, turned his day around with a $4,000 win bet on Talismanic, who won the Turf at 14-1. Gabbay closed his day with a $15,000 exacta of Gun Runner on top of Collected [which paid $17 for $1] that ballooned his winning bankroll to $176,000, earning $300,000 in purse money and an NHC seat.

“It was a day of days. I’ve never had as good a day handicapping as I had that day and I came in tenth,” said Deicke. “I’ve since won other contests that I didn’t see as well, but now I understand the betting of the contests.”

Deicke said the 2017 BCBC was a game-changing experience.

“Now, I’m in the NYRA contest every week and I try to win free entries into the Breeders’ Cup and NHC,” said Deicke. “I’ve done pretty well at the NHC the past few years. Last year, I came in 20th and the year before I was around 50th out of 600 people.”

But not everyone has to dive in at the deep end. The NYRA Challenge series includes weekly tournaments that start with a $300 buy-in and offers cash prizes and seats in future challenge events. In all events, NYRA returns 100 percent of the prize pool to the players.

“In general, you’re betting with takeout and then in the contest you bet with no takeout and that’s an advantage for the player,” said Deicke. “And I love that the weekly contests are $300, so you can start to participate in tournaments for smaller amounts of money that can get you into bigger tournaments. You can work your way up to winning an NHC seat and that’s great for the players.”

There are significant differences in strategies from the NHC contest – where players make a series of $2 win/place bets on a set number of races – and cash tournaments, like the BCBC or the $3,000 Gotham Challenge, where before the end of the tournament, a contestant must wager a minimum of $400 in a permitted wager type [Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Trifecta, Quinella, and Daily Double] per race on a minimum of five (5) Challenge Races.

Deicke said he uses Thoro-Graph sheets and the Daily Racing Form as key study aids for his tournament play along with select race replays via NYRA Bets.

“If I see a troubled-trip line of steady or checked, I’ll re-watch the race,” said Deicke. “Sometimes, a horse will steady and check when they’re about to win and sometimes it happens when they’re about to lose and the fact that they’re losing momentum and the jockey is checking them up doesn’t matter.”

The now veteran player said he has learned to keep an open mind and bet the board.

“I study the morning of the tournament and try to make my decisions as late as possible,” said Deicke. “I don’t want to get focused in on one particular thing. Also, the board can vastly change how you play a given race. One thing I’ve learned at tournaments is you can sit there all day to bet a 10-1 shot in the last race and the horse will open up at 5-2 because everybody else likes it too.”

“If speed is winning or the inside is good, I can adapt a little bit,” added Deicke. “I keep a journal of every tournament I’m in and write down every bet I make – from the type of race to the bet itself and the result.”

Deicke said adaptability is a key component of tournament play, referencing the recent Cigar Mile Challenge.

“You have to be flexible,” said Deicke. “I loved True Timber that day. He was 10-1. But the tournament rules said you had to make five $40 bets, so I picked a few 3-5 shots to show that I thought couldn’t lose so I could bet it all on True Timber in the last race.”

The strategy did not pan out with a number of his horses running off the board. At the penultimate race, the Grade 2 Demoiselle, Deicke spent his remaining $120 on a cold double of Malathaat onto True Timber in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile.

“Malathaat just got up to win and then True Timber won and catapulted me into second,” said Deicke. “What I planned to do when the day started and what I ended up doing at day’s end to be successful were two different things.”

True Timber paid $16.60 to win, capping a double that paid $16.40 for $1.

Deicke said he will play the Gotham Challenge ($2,000 Live Bankroll/$1,000 Prize Pool) which in addition to significant prize money also offers two NHC seats along with a seat at a future $3,000 NYRA Challenge event.

“Those NHC seats are valuable,” said Deicke. “Anyone out there wanting to play the Gotham Challenge because they want to win an NHC seat, I’d totally recommend it.

“My goal every year is to double qualify for the NHC,” added Deicke. “It’s not just for the money. The first place prize last year was $800,000 but they also give you an Eclipse Award as handicapper of the year. That trophy is going to go up in the middle of our house enclosed in glass with a big picture of me smiling ear to ear with a check in my hands. I’ll build a shrine in my house if I ever win it.”

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Bi-weekly stat pack

The bi-weekly stat pack provides a snapshot of who's hot over the past two weeks at the Big A versus year-to-date, including Top Trainer by ROI; Top Jockey by ROI; and Top Jockey and Trainer Combination by wins.

Also featured in this report is listing of the highest mutuel payouts of the past two weeks versus year-to-date, as well as a look at NYRA's bi-weekly handle, including average field size; number of race days; and daily average handle.

Through the relevant period of February 13-28, jockey Eric Cancel posted 17 wins to lead all riders. The veteran rider has notched 54 wins at the Big A meet and is now just six behind leading rider Kenrick Carmouche, who had 10 wins over the last two weeks.

Cancel proved to be most effective in tandem with trainer Linda Rice with four wins from 24 starts over the relevant period. The Cancel/Rice partnership are 13 for 47 year-to-date to lead all jockey/trainer combos.

Trainer Bruce Levine is flying under the radar during the past two weeks winning 4-of-13 starts for an ROI of $3.42.

For a closer look, click this link.

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The Big Ticket: A $96 Empire 6 investment returns $7,903.30

On February 25, a horseplayer invested $96 into the Empire 6 at Aqueduct Racetrack and was rewarded with a payout of $7,903.30.

The ticket went as follows: 5,6/1,2,3,6,7/1,3,7,9/3/1,3,5,7/1,2,3.

The opening leg – Race 3 on an eight-race card – saw Kentucky Cool [No. 6, $14.20] sprint home over a fast main track as the longest shot on the board in a five-horse claiming tilt under jockey Dylan Davis. It was a cool beginning for the customer, who also had the 5-1 runner-up Bustinmygroove [No. 5] on a ticket designed to ignore the disappointing mutuel favorite Run Casper Run [No. 3], who finished fourth.

Ironically it was Doublepour [No. 7, $6.20], the 2-1 mutuel favorite from a 9-5 morning-line assessment, who proved victorious in the second leg in the biggest spread race on the ticket. With Davis in the irons, Doublepour annexed a field of seven state-bred maiden claimers by 2 1/2-lengths.

A four-deep approach in the third leg paid dividends when Miss Liana [No. 1, $17] scored at 7-1 under Jorge Vargas, Jr. for trainer James Ryerson in a six-furlong claiming sprint for older fillies and mares.

In Race 6, Blu Grotto [No. 3, $4.60] dominated by 8 3/4-lengths as the race favorite and lone single in the sequence. With leading rider Kendrick Carmouche up for trainer John Kimmel in a seven-furlong maiden claimer, Blu Grotto made the front and never looked back while avoiding any takers for the $40,000 tag.

There was drama in the penultimate leg when Steam Engine [No. 6], with Vargas, Jr. up, crossed the wire first by four lengths over South Africa [No. 3] in a six-furlong optional-claiming sprint. While the winning punter may have been ripping up his ticket, the inquiry sign flashed.

Leaving from post 6, Steam Engine had crossed swiftly in front of the field and into the turn appeared to interfere with the runner-up and the fourth-place Dark Money [No. 1]. A stewards' inquiry and claim of foul lodged by the rider of South Africa [Carmouche] resulted in a disqualification with the winner placed fourth. With South Africa elevated to first and paying $7.50, the ticket survived to the final leg.

Alive to three horses in the finale, the winning ticket was never in doubt as Eddie F’s Racing’s Boo Who [No. 2, $11.20] took command and made every pole a winning one en route to a three-length score under Benjamin Hernandez for trainer Gary Sciacca in a state-bred maiden claimer.

Featuring a $0.20 bet minimum and 20 percent takeout, the Empire 6 wager will continue to offer a daily mandatory payout in the month of March at Aqueduct Racetrack as part of a pilot project launched in January.

Learn more about the Empire 6 in our previous edition of NYRA Bets Notes here: https://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/news/between-the-hedges-a-closer-look-at-the-empire-6.

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A look back…a look ahead

Chester and Mary Broman’s popular New York-bred Mr. Buff captured Saturday’s $125,000 Stymie, a one-turn mile for older horses on the main track paying $3.40. Manny Franco picked up the mount for trainer John Kimmel. Read the full recap here: https://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/news/mr.-buff-powers-to-victory-in-$125k-stymie.

Next weekend offers a return to Kentucky Derby qualifying at the Big A featuring the one-mile Grade 3, $300,000 Gotham, which provides 50-20-10-5 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top four finishers. The Gotham day card includes the Grade 3, $200,000 Tom Fool Handicap for 4-year-olds and up going six furlongs; the $250,000 Busher Invitational for 3-year-old fillies offering 50-20-10-5 Kentucky Oaks qualifying points to the top-four finishers; and the $125,000 Heavenly Prize Invitational at one mile for older fillies and mares.

Sunday stakes action at the Big A features the $100,000 Biogio’s Rose, a one-turn mile older state-bred fillies and mares.

For FREE TimeformUS analysis and selections for races from Aqueduct Racetrack, visit: https://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/racing/timeformus/.

FREE daily NYRA selections are available from analysts Andy Serling and Anthony Stabile. Watch Serling and Stabile discuss the card each live race day from The Big A on Talking Horses: https://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/racing/talking-horses/.

Check out NYRA Notes for insights into recent races and the inside scoop on contenders for upcoming events with quotes from the connections: https://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/news/notes.

Aqueduct winter meet Week 11 stakes probables

Saturday, March 6

Grade 3, $300,000 Gotham
50-20-10-5 Kentucky Derby qualifier

Probable: Capo Kane (Harold Wyner), Freedom Fighter (Bob Baffert), Highly Motivated (Chad Brown), Wipe The Slate (Doug O’Neill)
Possible: Awesome Gerry (Saffie Joseph, Jr.), Irish Honor (Joseph, Jr.), Smiley Sobotka (Dale Romans), The Reds (John Kimmel), Weyburn (Jimmy Jerkens)

Grade 3, $200,000 Tom Fool

Probable: Chateau (Rob Atras), Happy Farm (Linda Rice), Pete’s Play Call (Rudy Rodriguez), Share the Ride (Antonio Arriaga), Speed Pass (Baffert), Wendell Fong (Natalia Lynch)
Possible: My Boy Tate (Michelle Nevin)

$250,000 Busher Invitational
50-20-10-5 Kentucky Oaks qualifier

Probable: Laobanonaprayer (Daniel Velazquez), Make Mischief (Jeremiah Englehart), Miss Brazil (Tony Dutrow), Search Results (Chad Brown), Slumber Party (Kelly Breen), The Grass Is Blue (Brown)
Possible: Mo Desserts (Jerkens), Lady Traveler (Dale Romans)

$125,000 Heavenly Prize Invitational

Probable: Needs Supervision (Jeremiah O’Dwyer), Portal Creek (Juan Carlos Guerrero), Thankful (Todd Pletcher)
Possible: Landing Zone (Claudio Gonzalez), Sharp Starr (Horacio DePaz) 

Sunday, March 7

$100,000 Biogio’s Rose (NYB)

Probable: Cheatham Hill (Marialice Coffey), Espresso Shot (Jorge Abreu), Firenze Freedom (Breen), Love and Love (Mike Miceli), Wasp (Pletcher)
Possible: Ice Princess (Danny Gargan) 

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NYRA Bets promotions

A number of promotions are on tap this month for NYRA Bets customers, including the Derby Bankroll Builder which offers a $20 bonus for a series of five upcoming Kentucky Derby qualifying races.

To collect the bonus:

·      Bet exactly $50 to win on one horse in any or all of the selected races through the NYRA Bets App.

·      Earn a $20 bonus per race – win or lose!

·      Participate in all 5 races and earn a $100 bonus.

Bankroll Builder Schedule

·      March 13: Rebel Stakes, Oaklawn Park

·      March 20: Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds

·      March 27: Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park

·      April 3: Wood Memorial, Aqueduct

·      April 10: Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Park

The customer must bet exactly a $50 win bet on the selected Kentucky Derby prep race to qualify. Customer must bet on the NYRA Bets App to qualify. Wagers placed on the NYRA Bets mobile site (m.nyrabets.com), desktop site or by phone with a live operator are not valid for the promotion bonus. All bonuses will be placed in the player account on April 29. Customer must be in good standing to receive the bonus. Bonus capped at $20 per customer per day.

For more info, visit https://www.nyrabets.com/#promo-calendar.