Saratoga Track Trends
NYRA handicapper Andy Serling analyzes Saratoga track trends and conditions in hopes to uncover insights about potential track biases. This can be a helpful resource for handicappers, as track conditions can change from one day to the next.
2023
Monday, September 4
The rail was good on the Main Track but overall it played fairly, as did both turf courses.
Sunday, September 3
While inside speed did well in some of the dirt races, and the rail was good, overall the main track played fairly. The turf courses also appeared to play fairly, with dynamics sometimes helping speed.
Saturday, September 2
The rail was good on the Main Track, but not a clear advantage, as over all the dirt and turf courses played fairly. The inside was possibly an edge on the Inner Turf.
Friday, September 1
All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly.
Thursday, August 31
The Main Track played fairly, with speed doing well in some cases, but closers dominating in others. The turf courses played fairly with dynamics likely playing the biggest role in the outcomes.
Wednesday, August 30
After morning rain we were off the turf. The track dried very quickly and there was an extreme speed bias. Making up ground was very hard.
Sunday, August 27
All courses, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly.
Saturday, August 26
Before the brief rain, the Main Track appeared to favor the inside, though how extensively is open to debate. Worth following. Likely the track was fair after the rain. The rails were down on the Mellon for the first time this year. The two races likely played fairly. No way to tell anything from the one race on the Inner.
Friday, August 25
Except for the 10F 8th race, speed was a decided advantage, with very little significant movement from behind. Forwardly placed horses dominated the results. There was one 5.5F Turf race, run on the Mellon course, with a heavy favorite winning.
Thursday, August 24
All surfaces, turf and dirt, played fairly. It began to rain around the 9 th race through the final race.
Wednesday, August 23
The Main Track appeared to play fairly. The rails were at 12 feet on Mellon and 14 on the Inner. The rail might have been a slight advantage on the Inner. The Mellon appeared to play fairly.
Sunday, August 20
The Main Track appeared to play fairly. There is a question of whether or not it was a disadvantage to be right on the rail but it's, at best, open to interpretation. The Turf courses, probably on the Firm side of Good, played fairly.
Saturday, August 19
Speed and the rail appeared to be a decided advantage on the Main Track. We saw horses make OK runs outside, but for the most part, speed and the inside dominated. One turf sprint on the Mellon Turf course was won on the lead but no evidence the course wasn't fair. Both races on the Inner Turf played fairly.
Friday, August 18
After more overnight rain, we were Muddy and Off the Turf. The rail was good on the Main Track, and possibly at least a bit of an advantage. Forward horses dominated for the most part, but it was possible to make up significant ground.
Thursday, August 17
All courses appeared to play fairly. The Turf courses were listed as Good but were likely closer to Firm.
Wednesday, August 16
The rail was good on the Main Track, though not a clear advantage, as mostly the track played fairly. There was one race on each course. They were both labelled Good but were on the Firm side of Good. Each race collapsed. On the Mellon it was more logical, while on the Inner it was likely due to a quick contested pace. Hard to say there was any bias.
Sunday, August 13
The Main Track played fairly. Much of the best running seemed to be done outside, but enough runners did well inside to suggest it was fair. The Turf courses seemed to play fairly. They we listed Firm but were on the Good side of Firm.
Saturday, August 12
The trends were similar to 8/11. The rail was good on the Main track, if not a distinct advantage, and while some horses made up considerable ground, it appeared to be a benefit to be forward. The rail was an edge on the Inner Turf, but not severely. The Mellon Turf appeared to play fairly.
Friday, August 11
The rail was good on the Main Track. How much of an advantage is debatable. While it was possible to close, forwardly placed horses dominated for the most part. With the rails down to zero for the first time for the two races on the Inner, the inside was likely an advantage, but perhaps not as distinctly as in past years. There was one race, a four horse sprint on the Mellon Course.
Thursday, August 10
The track appears to play fairly. The riders often drifted off the inside in the stretch, whether or not there is a concern that the rail was bad it's hard to know, and there is at best ambiguous evidence the rail was a problem in the stretch. Might be worth following.
Wednesday, August 9
After more rain over the "weekend" we were off the turf, the Jump race was cancelled, and we lost the 5th race as well due to a power outage at the track and in the area. The Main Track appeared to play fairly.
Sunday, August 6
The Main Track played fairly. There were three turf races, with two on the Inner, and they all appeared to play fairly.
Saturday, August 5
The Main Track played fairly. There were two races on each turf course. Possible you were a bit better off outside, particularly on the Inner, but it's hard to be sure. Worth following.
Friday, August 4
After heavy overnight rain, the Main Track was Muddy and the Turf was Yielding for just the Stake. It began to rain before the 7th, the Stake, and after a post race delay, the remainder of the card was cancelled. Other than there being a lot of give in the course, no determinations can really be made, other than the favorite dominating. Most of the best racing on the Main Track was done forward, but enough horses made reasonable runs to suggest the track was at least borderline fair. Tough to be sure.
Thursday, August 3
There is a strong argument that the rail was dead on the Main Track. The turf courses likely played fairly.
Wednesday, August 2
All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly.
Sunday, July 30
The rail was good on the Main Track, but not a clear advantage, as the track played fairly. There was one race on each turf course, and while speed or forward horses dominated, it was likely due to race dynamics or ( in one case ) a very logical result. While there was some give to the courses, they were on the Firm side of Good.
Saturday, July 29
Hard to have concrete thoughts given the weather. Likely the surfaces played fairly, and there didn't appear to be any conclusive biases, but hard to know for sure.
Friday, July 28
All courses, turf and dirt, played fairly.
Thursday, July 27
There were four races on the Main Track. It's hard to be sure, but the rail may have been off. Worth following. The turf courses played fairly.
Wednesday, July 26
The rails were out 18 feet on both turf courses. All courses, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly.
Sunday, July 23
There is a fair argument the rail was dead on the Main Track. Two path and out seemed fine, but right inside may well have been dead ( similar to 7/13 - Opening Day). Worth following. The turf courses played fairly.
Saturday, July 22
All surfaces, turf and dirt, played fairly.
Friday, July 21
Overnight rains knocked all the races off the turf except the Stake, the Lake George. The track dried quickly and was Fast early in the day. The rail was good on the Main Track, though how much of an edge is debatable, but it's worth following. While speed did well, it could be situational. Forward horses, at the very least, probably had an advantage ( not exactly unusual on dirt ). With one turf race, on the Inner, it's hard to say there were any trends. Nobody made up any significant ground but it's hard to take a lot from that.
Thursday, July 20
The Main Track played fairly, as did the Mellon Turf. The rail dominated the two turf races but arguably it was situational.
Wednesday, July 19
All courses, turf and dirt, appeared to play fairly.
Sunday, July 16
Before the rain, riders stayed off the rail, but there is no evidence the rail was bad. The same was the case after the rain, for races 4-7, then the 8 th winner closed inside and the rail appeared to be an advantage after that. Possibly it was always strong, but there is no way to be sure. Either way, speed and closers did fine depending on dynamics and quality.
Saturday, July 15
The rail continued to be an advantage on the Main Track though how significant is open to interpretation. Worth following going forward. Speed did OK in some turf races on both courses, but overall they played fairly. While listed Firm, both courses were likely Good at best.
Friday, July 14
We were off the turf after heavy overnight rains. However, the Main Track dried well, and ( especially as the day progressed ) it appeared that the rail was a significant advantage.
Thursday, July 13
There is a fair argument the rail was dead, just the rail, at least in the stretch. Worth following. The rail was out 9 feet on the Inner Turf and 12 on the Mellon. Both courses appeared to play fairly.