Between The Hedges: Picking apart the Pick 6

by NYRA Press Office

The following is the eighth edition of a bi-weekly series entitled Between The Hedges, discussing the business of betting with a focus on trending wagering topics and statistics. This week’s column is penned by Joe Longo, NYRA General Manager of Content Services. Send your questions for Between The Hedges to [email protected].

ELMONT, N.Y. – The New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) launched the return of a traditional Pick 6 – at a $1 base with 15 percent takeout –for the current 48-day Belmont Park spring/summer meet.

The Pick 6, part of the latest stage of NYRA’s pilot project, replaced the Empire 6, a jackpot style wager featuring a $0.20 bet minimum first offered in August 2019 at Saratoga Race Course. Prior to the Empire 6, NYRA had offered a Pick 6 with a $2 base.

There were three sets of unique circumstances used as comparison points to prompt this change, which resulted after analyzing data covering the months of February and March from the last three years.

In 2019, 31 race days were covered during February and March offering the Pick 6, at a $2 base, posting a handle of $3,333,022 and 1.9 percent of the total handle over this time frame. The average daily pool was $170,517. Of those 31 days, 10 featured carryovers. Removing the carryover impact, the handle was $673,569 and the daily average was $32,075, representing 0.6 percent of total handle.

The Empire 6 was in place for the same time frame in 2020. There were 22 days of racing, with a handle of $5,296,389 for an average daily pool of $240,745. That marked 3.8 percent of our total handle over this time frame. There were three mandatory force-out days that accounted for $3,852,771, or 73 percent of the total handle. Removing this mandatory figure, the handle was $1,443,618 and the daily average was $75,980, representing 1.2 percent of total handle. 

This year, in the months of February and March, the Empire 6 was still in place. But the pool had a retail-only restriction and was forced out every race day. Over 28 race days, the total handle was $2,295,755, the daily average was $81,991, representing 1.4 percent of our total handle. 

What was the lesson?

Customers look to participate in pools where they can expect to get a player advantage. In this case, the carryover constitutes an effective takeout reduction. It is common to see large multipliers on these pools and could be the difference in making a banner day of handle. The lower base of $0.20 also opened the pools to a completely new demographic of customer that previously did not participate due to the prohibitive cost of coverage at a $2 base.

So, what is the reason for the change back to the Pick 6, but at a $1 base?

The data showed that customers bet back in races within the sequence having handicapped the races already. When the Pick 6 was in place and had a natural carryover, it generated a significant amount of interest. In the year prior to the start of the Empire 6, there were 96 carryovers with the $2 Pick 6 in place. Those carryover cards accounted for 72 percent of the total Pick 6 handle despite being only 40 percent of the sample size.

Through twelve race days of the $1 Pick 6 at the current meet, a total of $1,494,647 has been wagered. The average daily pool has been $124,554. Three one-day carryovers of $61,085, $58,516, and $41,572 took place with new money wagered into the pool the next day ranging anywhere from a multiplier of 3x through 9x. 

By comparison, the $2 Pick 6 over twelve race days in 2019 handled $963,566 for a daily average of $80,297. There was a two-day carryover of $23,659 and $87,484 with a 5x multiplier on each day. There was no racing this time last year to compare the Empire 6.

By bringing back the Pick 6 at an accessible $1 base and keeping it a retail-only pool, the wager has already led to three carryovers which should continue as the meet progresses. 

Under the daily force-out schedule for the Empire 6 in the previous pilot program, there was no chance for a carryover and the benefit associated with it. The 15 percent takeout on the non-carryover days also falls in line with our Pick 5 that has been sharply trending upwards over the years and proving very popular with our customers.  

Is this change permanent?

This format is another variation in the pilot program to find the right size in the Pick 6. Something important to keep in mind is that each of our meets are separate and distinct. One variation of the Pick 6 may work for the Aqueduct fall/winter meet but not for the Belmont fall meet. As such, NYRA will continue to monitor the results going forward.

Send your questions for Between The Hedges to [email protected].

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Bi-weekly stat pack

The bi-weekly stat pack provides a snapshot of who's hot over the past two weeks at Belmont Park versus year-to-date, including Top Trainer by ROI; Top Jockey by ROI; and Top Jockey and Trainer Combination by wins.

Also featured in this report is listing of the highest mutuel payouts of the past two weeks versus year-to-date, as well as a look at NYRA's bi-weekly handle, including average field size; number of race days; and daily average handle.

Through the two-week period of April 24 through May 9, trainer Christophe Clement is red hot winning with 9-of-27 starters for an ROI of $3.24. During the same period, conditioner Chris Englehart has won with 3-of-9 starters for an ROI of $5.20.

Jockey Joel Rosario has made a big splash on his return to New York winning with 14-of-37 mounts over the relevant period for an ROI of $3.17. The Clement-Rosario combo have won 4-of-10 starts together for an ROI of $2.64. The popular Rosario teamed up with conditioner Charlie Baker to win with 3-of-4 mounts over the relevant period for an ROI of $7.85.

For a closer look at the bi-weekly stat pack, click this link.

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The Big Ticket: A $60 Cross Country Pick 5 investment returns $38,536

On Saturday May 8, a horseplayer invested $60 into the Cross Country Pick 5 for a return of $38,536 in a sequence offering races from Churchill Downs and Belmont Park.

The ticket went as follows: 10,12,13,14/5,7,8/1/1,5,7,8,11/3,5

A five-horse spread in the opening leg, a 1 1/16-mile turf allowance in Race 8 from Churchill Downs, paid big dividends as Gam’s Mission [No. 10, $17.80] held off the mutuel favorite Flown [No. 12] by a neck. Adam Beschizza rode the winner for Cherie DeVaux.

In Italian [No. 5, $4.50] was the first of two favorites to win in the sequence, with Irad Ortiz, Jr. piloting the Chad Brown trainee to a convincing score over 8-1 shot Flaming Rouge [No. 9] in the 1 1/16-mile turf race for fillies and mares in Belmont’s Race 8.

The ticket’s lone single saw Crystal Ball [No. 1, $3.40] prevail as the second consecutive favorite to win, leading at every point of call under Florent Geroux to capture a 1 1/16-mile main track allowance optional claiming tilt in Churchill’s Race 9.

The winning punter used 5-of-9 horses in Race 9 at Churchill - the $100,000 Mamzelle, a five-furlong turf sprint for 3-year-old fillies – and played against the mutuel favorite Goin’ Good [No. 2], who ran fifth. A blanket finish of three longshots saw Lady Edith [No. 11, $51.60] prevail by a neck at 24-1 over New Boss [No. 8, 14-1], who was a head better than Navratilova [No. 12, 6-1] to provide the sequence’s biggest payout. Brian Hernandez, Jr. engineered the upset for trainer Thomas Drury, Jr.

The ticket was two deep to close out the wager in the Grade 1, $700,000 Man o’ War for 4-year-olds and up going 1 3/8 miles on Belmont’s inner turf. Off at 8-1, the pacesetting Channel Cat [No. 5, $18.40], piloted by Hall of Famer John Velazquez, nosed out the uncovered mutuel favorite Gufo [No. 8], to secure the win.

The minimum bet for the multi-track, multi-race wager is 50 cents. Wagering on the Cross Country Pick 5 is also available on track, on ADW platforms, and at simulcast facilities across the country. Every week will feature a mandatory payout of the net pool.

The Cross Country Pick 5 will continue each Saturday throughout the year. For more information, visit NYRABets.com.

Learn more about the Cross Country Pick 5 in a previous edition of Between The Hedges: https://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/news/between-the-hedges-inside-the-cross-country-pick-5.

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A look back…a look ahead

Last Saturday saw a bumper card of racing at beautiful Belmont Park offer up five graded events, including the first Grade 1 of the 48-day spring/summer meet as Channel Cat nosed out Gufo in the $700,000 Man o’ War at 11 furlongs on the inner turf. Read the recap: https://www.nyra.com/belmont/news/johnny-v-gives-channel-cat-purrfect-ride-in-g1-man-o%E2%80%99-war-win

For the second straight year, Mr. Amore Stable’s Firenze Fire kicked off his season with a graded stakes triumph, besting a five-horse field in Saturday's Grade 3, $150,000 Runhappy for older horses going six furlongs. Read more: https://www.nyra.com/belmont/news/firenze-fire-ignites-6-year-old-campaign-in-g3-runhappy.

Following a wildly successful sophomore campaign that saw her finish third in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, Harvey’s Lil Goil made a winning return to the races, holding off European import Lemista to take the Grade 3, $150,000 Beaugay for older fillies and mares in her seasonal debut: https://www.nyra.com/belmont/news/harvey%E2%80%99s-lil-goil-asserts-her-class-in-g3-beaugay

Tommy Town Thoroughbreds’ Victim of Love utilized a stalk-and-pounce approach under Joel Rosario to successfully defend her title in Saturday’s 71st renewal of the Grade 3, $150,000 Vagrancy Handicap, a 6 1/2-furlong sprint for older fillies and mares: https://www.nyra.com/belmont/news/victim-of-love-repeats-in-g3-vagrancy

Staying true to form, 3-2 favorite Promise Keeper took the nine-furlong Grade 3, $200,000 Peter Pan by 2 ¼ lengths over a field of four other 3-year-olds in the traditional local prep for the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets, the third jewel of racing’s Triple Crown: https://www.nyra.com/belmont/news/promise-keeper-grows-up-in-g3-peter-pan

On Sunday, Susan Quick and Christopher Feifarek’s Beren made up 1 1/2 lengths in the stretch, closing in on Candy Man Rocket with a strong outside move and gaining the edge in the final stride to win the $100,000 Gold Fever by a nose in a thrilling finish to the six-furlong sprint for sophomores: https://www.nyra.com/belmont/news/beren-rallies-for-win-in-head-bob-finish-over-candy-man-rocket-in-gold-fever

There will be plenty of exciting racing action this week at Belmont Park, where live racing will be conducted Thursday through Sunday. Saturday’s stakes feature is the Grade 3, $100,000 Soaring Softly, a seven-furlong turf sprint for sophomore fillies.

For FREE TimeformUS analysis and selections for races from Belmont Park, visit: https://www.nyra.com/belmont/racing/timeformus/.

FREE daily NYRA selections are available from analysts Andy Serling and Anthony Stabile. Watch Serling and Stabile discuss the card each live race day from Belmont Park on Talking Horses: https://www.nyra.com/belmont/racing/talking-horses.

Check out NYRA Notes for insights into recent races and the inside scoop on contenders for upcoming events with quotes from the connections: https://www.nyra.com/belmont/news/notes.

Belmont Park spring / summer meet Week 4 probables 

Saturday, May 15, 2021

$100K Soaring Softly

Probable: Bye Bye (Christophe Clement), Candace O (Graham Motion), Hit the Woah (Clement), Invincible Gal (Motion), No Ordinary Time (Shug McGaughey), Star Devine (Jorge Abreu), Tobys Heart (Brian Lynch)
Possible: Sleek Lynx (Mark Casse) 

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NYRA Bets promotions

There are a number of special offers currently available to NYRA Bets players, including the 100/100 Belmont & Pimlico bonus on Saturday.

Earn a bonus by betting Belmont Park and Pimlico on Preakness Day! Play Belmont Park and Pimlico on the NYRA Bets App and earn a $25 bonus - win or lose! Here's how to win:

Bet $100 at Pimlico on the NYRA Bets App

Bet $100 at Belmont Park on the NYRA Bets App

Earn $25 win or lose!

Customer must bet at least $100 on each of the two designated tracks to qualify. Bonus will be placed in player account within 48 hours of race day. 

Bets must be placed with the NYRA Bets App to qualify. Show bets do not qualify for the promotion. Bets placed on the mobile site (m.nyrabets.com) do not qualify. Customer must be in good standing to receive the bonus.

For more information, visit https://www.nyrabets.com.